Has the Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived?

Plant-pollinator coextinctions and the loss of plant functional and phylogenetic diversity

Plant-pollinator coextinctions are likely to become more frequent as habitat alteration and climate change continue to threaten pollinators. The consequences of the resulting collapse of plant communities will depend partly on how quickly plant functional and phylogenetic diversity decline following pollinator extinctions. We investigated the functional and phylogenetic consequences of pollinator extinctions by simulating coextinctions in seven plant-pollinator networks coupled with independent data on plant phylogeny and functional traits. Declines in plant functional diversity were slower than expected under a scenario of random extinctions, while phylogenetic diversity often decreased faster than expected by chance. Our results show that plant functional diversity was relatively robust to plant-pollinator coextinctions, despite the underlying rapid loss of evolutionary history. Thus, our study suggests the possibility of uncoupled responses of functional and phylogenetic diversity to species coextinctions, highlighting the importance of considering both dimensions of biodiversity explicitly in ecological studies and when planning for the conservation of species and interactions.

Global meta-analysis reveals no net change in local-scale plant biodiversity over time

Global biodiversity is in decline. This is of concern for aesthetic and ethical reasons, but possibly also for practical reasons, as suggested by experimental studies, mostly with plants, showing that biodiversity reductions in small study plots can lead to compromised ecosystem function. However, inferring that ecosystem functions will decline due to biodiversity loss in the real world rests on the untested assumption that such loss is actually occurring at these small scales in nature. Using a global database of 168 published studies and >16,000 nonexperimental, local-scale vegetation plots, we show that mean temporal change in species diversity over periods of 5-261 y is not different from zero, with increases at least as likely as declines over time. Sites influenced primarily by plant species' invasions showed a tendency for declines in species richness, whereas sites undergoing postdisturbance succession showed increases in richness over time. Other distinctions among studies had little influence on temporal richness trends. Although maximizing diversity is likely important for maintaining ecosystem function in intensely managed systems such as restored grasslands or tree plantations, the clear lack of any general tendency for plant biodiversity to decline at small scales in nature directly contradicts the key assumption linking experimental results to ecosystem function as a motivation for biodiversity conservation in nature. How often real world changes in the diversity and composition of plant communities at the local scale cause ecosystem function to deteriorate, or actually to improve, remains unknown and is in critical need of further study.

Implications of Time-Averaged Death Assemblages for Ecology and Conservation Biology

Biologists increasingly appreciate the importance of community-level attributes in the functioning and temporal turnover of ecosystems, but data other than species richness are difficult to acquire over the habitat-to-regional and decadal-to-millennial scales needed to recognize biodiversity change, discriminate between natural and anthropogenic drivers, and inform theoretical and applied ecology. Death assemblages (DAs)—the actively accumulating organic remains encountered in present-day seabeds and landscapes, as distinct from permanently buried fossil assemblages—are an underexploited source of historical information at precisely these scales. Meta-analyses, dynamic modeling, and individual case studies, particularly of mollusks and mammals, reveal that DAs differ from censused living assemblages (LAs) primarily because they are temporally coarse, time-averaged samples, contrary to concerns that postmortem bias dominates. Temporal pooling predictably damps the ability of DAs to detect small-scale variation, but promotes their ability to inventory rare species; estimate the abundance structure of the metacommunity; document range changes; evaluate historic habitat use; and identify now-absent species, community states, and anthropogenically shifted baselines.

Life history of the Glanville fritillary butterfly in fragmented versus continuous landscapes

Habitat loss and fragmentation threaten the long-term viability of innumerable species of plants and animals. At the same time, habitat fragmentation may impose strong natural selection and lead to evolution of life histories with possible consequences for demographic dynamics. The Baltic populations of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) inhabit regions with highly fragmented habitat (networks of small dry meadows) as well as regions with extensive continuous habitat (calcareous alvar grasslands). Here, we report the results of common garden studies on butterflies originating from two highly fragmented landscapes (FL) in Finland and Sweden and from two continuous landscapes (CL) in Sweden and Estonia, conducted in a large outdoor cage (32 by 26 m) and in the laboratory. We investigated a comprehensive set of 51 life-history traits, including measures of larval growth and development, flight performance, and adult reproductive behavior. Seventeen of the 51 traits showed a significant difference between fragmented versus CL. Most notably, the growth rate of postdiapause larvae and several measures of flight capacity, including flight metabolic rate, were higher in butterflies from fragmented than CL. Females from CL had shorter intervals between consecutive egg clutches and somewhat higher life-time egg production, but shorter longevity, than females from FL. These results are likely to reflect the constant opportunities for oviposition in females living in continuous habitats, while the more dispersive females from FL allocate more resources to dispersal capacity at the cost of egg maturation rate. This study supports theoretical predictions about small population sizes and high rate of population turnover in fragmented habitats selecting for increased rate of dispersal, but the results also indicate that many other life-history traits apart from dispersal are affected by the degree of habitat fragmentation.

Fire promotes pollinator visitation: implications for ameliorating declines of pollination services

Pollinators serve critical roles for the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and have an estimated annual value of over $150 billion for global agriculture. Mounting evidence from agricultural systems reveals that pollinators are declining in many regions of the world, and with a lack of information on whether pollinator communities in natural systems are following similar trends, identifying factors which support pollinator visitation and services are important for ameliorating the effects of the current global pollinator crisis. We investigated how fire affects resource structure and how that variation influences floral pollinator communities by comparing burn versus control treatments in a southeastern USA old-field system. We hypothesized and found a positive relationship between fire and plant density of a native forb, Verbesina alternifolia, as well as a significant difference in floral visitation of V. alternifolia between burn and control treatments. V. alternifolia density was 44% greater and floral visitation was 54% greater in burned treatments relative to control sites. When the density of V. alternifolia was experimentally reduced in the burn sites to equivalent densities observed in control sites, floral visitation in burned sites declined to rates found in control sites. Our results indicate that plant density is a proximal mechanism by which an imposed fire regime can indirectly impact floral visitation, suggesting its usefulness as a tool for management of pollination services. Although concerns surround the negative impacts of management, indirect positive effects may provide an important direction to explore for managing future ecological and conservation issues. Studies examining the interaction among resource concentration, plant apparency, and how fire affects the evolutionary consequences of altered patterns of floral visitation are overdue.

Explaining geographic gradients in winter selection of landscapes by boreal caribou with implications under global changes in Eastern Canada

Many animal species exhibit broad-scale latitudinal or longitudinal gradients in their response to biotic and abiotic components of their habitat. Although knowing the underlying mechanism of these patterns can be critical to the development of sound measures for the preservation or recovery of endangered species, few studies have yet identified which processes drive the existence of geographical gradients in habitat selection. Using extensive spatial data of broad latitudinal and longitudinal extent, we tested three hypotheses that could explain the presence of geographical gradients in landscape selection of the endangered boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) during winter in Eastern Canadian boreal forests: 1) climate-driven selection, which postulates that geographic gradients are surrogates for climatic gradients; 2) road-driven selection, which proposes that boreal caribou adjust their selection for certain habitat classes as a function of proximity to roads; and 3) an additive effect of both roads and climate. Our data strongly supported road-driven selection over climate influences. Thus, direct human alteration of landscapes drives boreal caribou distribution and should likely remain so until the climate changes sufficiently from present conditions. Boreal caribou avoided logged areas two-fold more strongly than burnt areas. Limiting the spread of road networks and accounting for the uneven impact of logging compared to wildfire should therefore be integral parts of any habitat management plan and conservation measures within the range of the endangered boreal caribou. The use of hierarchical spatial models allowed us to explore the distribution of spatially-structured errors in our models, which in turn provided valuable insights for generating alternative hypotheses about processes responsible for boreal caribou distribution.

Understanding mechanisms of rarity in pteridophytes: competition and climate change threaten the rare fern Asplenium scolopendrium var. americanum (Aspleniaceae)

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Understanding the ecology of rare species can inform aspects of conservation strategies; however, the mechanisms of rarity remain elusive for most pteridophytes, which possess independent and ecologically distinct gametophyte and sporophyte generations. To elucidate factors contributing to recent declines of the rare fern Asplenium scolopendrium var. americanum, we studied the ecology and ecophysiology of its gametophyte generation, focusing on responses to competition, temperature, and water stress.

METHODS

Gametophytes of A. scolopendrium var. americanum, its widespread European relative A. scolopendrium var. scolopendrium, and five co-occurring fern species were grown from spores. Gametophytes were grown at 20°C and 25°C, and germination rates, intra- and interspecific competition, desiccation tolerance, and sporophyte production were determined for all species.

KEY RESULTS

Gametophytes of A. scolopendrium var. americanum had the lowest rates of germination and sporophyte production among all species studied and exhibited the greatest sensitivity to interspecific competition, temperature increases, and desiccation. Mature gametophytes of A. scolopendrium var. americanum grown at 25°C were 84.6% smaller than those grown at 20°C, and only 1.5% produced sporophytes after 200 d in culture. Similar responses were not observed in other species studied.

CONCLUSIONS

The recent declines and current status of populations of A. scolopendrium var. americanum are linked to its gametophyte's limited capacity to tolerate competition and physiological stress linked to climate change. This is the first study to develop a mechanistic understanding of rarity and decline in a fern and demonstrates the importance of considering the ecology of the gametophyte in plants with independent sporophyte and gametophyte generations.

Morphological divergence and flow-induced phenotypic plasticity in a native fish from anthropogenically altered stream habitats

Understanding population-level responses to human-induced changes to habitats can elucidate the evolutionary consequences of rapid habitat alteration. Reservoirs constructed on streams expose stream fishes to novel selective pressures in these habitats. Assessing the drivers of trait divergence facilitated by these habitats will help identify evolutionary and ecological consequences of reservoir habitats. We tested for morphological divergence in a stream fish that occupies both stream and reservoir habitats. To assess contributions of genetic-level differences and phenotypic plasticity induced by flow variation, we spawned and reared individuals from both habitats types in flow and no flow conditions. Body shape significantly and consistently diverged in reservoir habitats compared with streams; individuals from reservoirs were shallower bodied with smaller heads compared with individuals from streams. Significant population-level differences in morphology persisted in offspring but morphological variation compared with field-collected individuals was limited to the head region. Populations demonstrated dissimilar flow-induced phenotypic plasticity when reared under flow, but phenotypic plasticity in response to flow variation was an unlikely explanation for observed phenotypic divergence in the field. Our results, together with previous investigations, suggest the environmental conditions currently thought to drive morphological change in reservoirs (i.e., predation and flow regimes) may not be the sole drivers of phenotypic change.

Technology as a geological phenomenon: implications for human well-being

The technosphere, the interlinked set of communication, transportation, bureaucratic and other systems that act to metabolize fossil fuels and other energy resources, is considered to be an emerging global paradigm, with similarities to the lithosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere. The technosphere is of global extent, exhibits large-scale appropriation of mass and energy resources, shows a tendency to co-opt for its own use information produced by the environment, and is autonomous. Unlike the older paradigms, the technosphere has not yet evolved the ability to recycle its own waste stream. Unless or until it does so, its status as a paradigm remains provisional. Humans are ‘parts’ of the technosphere – subcomponents essential for system function. Viewed from the inside by its human parts, the technosphere is perceived as a derived and controlled construct. Viewed from outside as a geological phenomenon, the technosphere appears as a quasi-autonomous system whose dynamics constrains the behaviour of its human parts. A geological perspective on technology suggests why strategies to limit environmental damage that consider only the needs of people are likely to fail without parallel consideration of the requirements of technology, especially its need for an abundant supply of energy.

Palaeontological evidence for defining the Anthropocene

Palaeontology formed the basis for defining most of the geological eras, periods, epochs and ages that are commonly recognized. By the same token, the Anthropocene can be defined by diverse palaeontological criteria, in accordance with commonly accepted biostratigraphic practice. The most useful Anthropocene biostratigraphic zones will be assemblage and abundance zones based on mixes of native and non-native species in both the marine and terrestrial realms, although lineage zones based on evolution of crop plants may also have utility. Also useful are human-produced trace fossils, which have resulted in prominent biohorizons that can mark the onset of the Anthropocene, especially the paved road system, widespread through terrestrial regions, and microplastics, ubiquitous in near-shore and deep-water marine sediments. Most of these palaeontological criteria support placing the Holocene–Anthropocene boundary near 1950. Continuation of current extinction rates would produce an extinction biohorizon on the scale of the Big Five mass extinctions within a few centuries, but enhanced conservation measures could prevent making mass extinction an Anthropocene signature. A grand challenge for palaeontologists now is to define Anthropocene biostratigraphic zones rigorously, not only as a necessary precursor to formalizing the epoch, but also to more fully understand how humans have restructured the biosphere.

Body size and extinction risk in terrestrial mammals above the species level

Mammalian body mass strongly correlates with life history and population properties at the scale of mouse to elephant. Large body size is thus often associated with elevated extinction risk. I examined the North American fossil record (28-1 million years ago) of 276 terrestrial genera to uncover the relationship between body size and extinction probability above the species level. Phylogenetic comparative analysis revealed no correlation between sampling-adjusted durations and body masses ranging 7 orders of magnitude, an observation that was corroborated by survival analysis. Most of the ecological and temporal groups within the data set showed the same lack of relationship. Size-biased generic extinctions do not constitute a general feature of the Holarctic mammalian faunas in the Neogene. Rather, accelerated loss of large mammals occurred during intervals that experienced combinations of regional aridification and increased biomic heterogeneity within continents. The latter phenomenon is consistent with the macroecological prediction that large geographic ranges are critical to the survival of large mammals in evolutionary time. The frequent lack of size selectivity in generic extinctions can be reconciled with size-biased species loss if extinctions of large and small mammals at the species level are often driven by ecological perturbations of different spatial and temporal scales, while those at the genus level are more synchronized in time as a result of fundamental, multiscale environmental shifts.

The alligator gut microbiome and implications for archosaur symbioses

Among vertebrate gastrointestinal microbiome studies, complete representation of taxa is limited, particularly among reptiles. Here, we provide evidence for previously unrecognized host-microbiome associations along the gastrointestinal tract from the American alligator, a crown archosaur with shared ancestry to extinct taxa, including dinosaurs. Microbiome compositional variations reveal that the digestive system consists of multiple, longitudinally heterogeneous microbiomes that strongly correlate to specific gastrointestinal tract organs, regardless of rearing histories or feeding status. A core alligator gut microbiome comprised of Fusobacteria, but depleted in Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria common to mammalians, is compositionally unique from other vertebrate gut microbiomes, including other reptiles, fish, and herbivorous and carnivorous mammals. As such, modern alligator gut microbiomes advance our understanding of archosaur gut microbiome evolution, particularly if conserved host ecology has retained archosaur-specific symbioses over geologic time.

Trophic flexibility and the persistence of understory birds in intensively logged rainforest

Effects of logging on species composition in tropical rainforests are well known but may fail to reveal key changes in species interactions. We used nitrogen stable-isotope analysis of 73 species of understory birds to quantify trophic responses to repeated intensive logging of rainforest in northern Borneo and to test 4 hypotheses: logging has significant effects on trophic positions and trophic-niche widths of species, and the persistence of species in degraded forest is related to their trophic positions and trophic-niche widths in primary forest. Species fed from higher up the food chain and had narrower trophic-niche widths in degraded forest. Species with narrow trophic-niche widths in primary forest were less likely to persist after logging, a result that indicates a higher vulnerability of dietary specialists to local extinction following habitat disturbance. Persistence of species in degraded forest was not related to a species' trophic position. These results indicate changes in trophic organization that were not apparent from changes in species composition and highlight the importance of focusing on trophic flexibility over the prevailing emphasis on membership of static feeding guilds. Our results thus support the notion that alterations to trophic organization and interactions within tropical forests may be a pervasive and functionally important hidden effect of forest degradation.

Climate change and the oceans--what does the future hold?

The ocean has been shielding the earth from the worst effects of rapid climate change by absorbing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This absorption of CO2 is driving the ocean along the pH gradient towards more acidic conditions. At the same time ocean warming is having pronounced impacts on the composition, structure and functions of marine ecosystems. Warming, freshening (in some areas) and associated stratification are driving a trend in ocean deoxygenation, which is being enhanced in parts of the coastal zone by upwelling of hypoxic deep water. The combined impact of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are already having a dramatic effect on the flora and fauna of the oceans with significant changes in distribution of populations, and decline of sensitive species. In many cases, the impacts of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are increased by the effects of other human impacts, such as pollution, eutrophication and overfishing. The interactive effects of this deadly trio mirrors similar events in the Earth's past, which were often coupled with extinctions of major species' groups. Here we review the observed impacts and, using past episodes in the Earth's history, set out what the future may hold if carbon emissions and climate change are not significantly reduced with more or less immediate effect.

Conservation actions based on red lists do not capture the functional and phylogenetic diversity of birds in Brazil

Red Lists of threatened species play a critical role in conservation science and practice. However, policy-making based on Red Lists ignores ecological and evolutionary consequences of losing biodiversity because these lists focus on species alone. To decide if relying on Red Lists alone can help to conserve communities' functional (FD) and phylogenetic (PD) diversity, it is useful to evaluate whether Red List categories represent species with diverse ecological traits and evolutionary histories. Additionally, local scale analyses using regional Red Lists should represent more realistic pools of co-occurring species and thereby better capture eventual losses of FD and PD. Here, we used 21 life-history traits and a phylogeny for all Brazilian birds to determine whether species assigned under the IUCN global Red List, the Brazilian national, and regional Red Lists capture more FD and PD than expected by chance. We also built local Red Lists and analysed if they capture more FD and PD at the local scale. Further, we investigated whether individual threat categories have species with greater FD and PD than expected by chance. At any given scale, threat categories did not capture greater FD or PD than expected by chance. Indeed, mostly categories captured equal or less FD or PD than expected by chance. These findings would not have great consequences if Red Lists were not often considered as a major decision support tool for policy-making. Our results challenge the practice of investing conservation resources based only on species Red Lists because, from an ecological and evolutionary point of view, this would be the same as protecting similar or random sets of species. Thus, new prioritization methods, such as the EDGE of Existence initiative, should be developed and applied to conserve species' ecological traits and evolutionary histories at different spatial scales.

A multi-scale spatial analysis of native and exotic plant species richness within a mixed-disturbance oak savanna landscape

Impacts of human land use pose an increasing threat to global biodiversity. Resource managers must respond rapidly to this threat by assessing existing natural areas and prioritizing conservation actions across multiple spatial scales. Plant species richness is a useful measure of biodiversity but typically can only be evaluated on small portions of a given landscape. Modeling relationships between spatial heterogeneity and species richness may allow conservation planners to make predictions of species richness patterns within unsampled areas. We utilized a combination of field data, remotely sensed data, and landscape pattern metrics to develop models of native and exotic plant species richness at two spatial extents (60- and 120-m windows) and at four ecological levels for northwestern Ohio's Oak Openings region. Multiple regression models explained 37-77 % of the variation in plant species richness. These models consistently explained more variation in exotic richness than in native richness. Exotic richness was better explained at the 120-m extent while native richness was better explained at the 60-m extent. Land cover composition of the surrounding landscape was an important component of all models. We found that percentage of human-modified land cover (negatively correlated with native richness and positively correlated with exotic richness) was a particularly useful predictor of plant species richness and that human-caused disturbances exert a strong influence on species richness patterns within a mixed-disturbance oak savanna landscape. Our results emphasize the importance of using a multi-scale approach to examine the complex relationships between spatial heterogeneity and plant species richness.

Model systems for a no-analog future: species associations and climates during the last deglaciation

As the earth system moves to a novel state, model systems (experimental, observational, paleoecological) are needed to assess and improve the predictive accuracy of ecological models under environments with no contemporary analog. In recent years, we have intensively studied the no-analog plant associations and climates in eastern North America during the last deglaciation to better constrain their spatiotemporal distribution, test hypotheses about climatic and megaherbivory controls, and assess the accuracy of species- and community-level models. The formation of no-analog plant associations was asynchronous, beginning first in the south-central United States; at sites in the north-central United States, it is linked to declining megafaunal abundances. Insolation and temperature were more seasonal than present, creating climates currently nonexistent in North America, and shifting species-climate relationships for some taxa. These shifts pose a common challenge to empirical paleoclimatic reconstructions, species distribution models (SDMs), and conservation-optimization models based on SDMs. Steps forward include combining recent and paleoecological data to more fully describe species' fundamental niches, employing community-level models to model shifts in species interactions under no-analog climates, and assimilating paleoecological data with mechanistic ecosystem models. Accurately modeling species interactions under novel environments remains a fundamental challenge for all forms of ecological models.

New England salt marsh recovery: opportunistic colonization of an invasive species and its non-consumptive effects

Predator depletion on Cape Cod (USA) has released the herbivorous crab Sesarmareticulatum from predator control leading to the loss of cordgrass from salt marsh creek banks. After more than three decades of die-off, cordgrass is recovering at heavily damaged sites coincident with the invasion of green crabs (Carcinusmaenas) into intertidal Sesarma burrows. We hypothesized that Carcinus is dependent on Sesarma burrows for refuge from physical and biotic stress in the salt marsh intertidal and reduces Sesarma functional density and herbivory through consumptive and non-consumptive effects, mediated by both visual and olfactory cues. Our results reveal that in the intertidal zone of New England salt marshes, Carcinus are burrow dependent, Carcinus reduce Sesarma functional density and herbivory in die-off areas and Sesarma exhibit a generic avoidance response to large, predatory crustaceans. These results support recent suggestions that invasive Carcinus are playing a role in the recovery of New England salt marshes and assertions that invasive species can play positive roles outside of their native ranges.

Changes in ecologically critical terrestrial climate conditions

Terrestrial ecosystems have encountered substantial warming over the past century, with temperatures increasing about twice as rapidly over land as over the oceans. Here, we review the likelihood of continued changes in terrestrial climate, including analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate model ensemble. Inertia toward continued emissions creates potential 21st-century global warming that is comparable in magnitude to that of the largest global changes in the past 65 million years but is orders of magnitude more rapid. The rate of warming implies a velocity of climate change and required range shifts of up to several kilometers per year, raising the prospect of daunting challenges for ecosystems, especially in the context of extensive land use and degradation, changes in frequency and severity of extreme events, and interactions with other stresses.

Lateral diffusion of nutrients by mammalian herbivores in terrestrial ecosystems

Animals translocate nutrients by consuming nutrients at one point and excreting them or dying at another location. Such lateral fluxes may be an important mechanism of nutrient supply in many ecosystems, but lack quantification and a systematic theoretical framework for their evaluation. This paper presents a mathematical framework for quantifying such fluxes in the context of mammalian herbivores. We develop an expression for lateral diffusion of a nutrient, where the diffusivity is a biologically determined parameter depending on the characteristics of mammals occupying the domain, including size-dependent phenomena such as day range, metabolic demand, food passage time, and population size. Three findings stand out: (a) Scaling law-derived estimates of diffusion parameters are comparable to estimates calculated from estimates of each coefficient gathered from primary literature. (b) The diffusion term due to transport of nutrients in dung is orders of magnitude large than the coefficient representing nutrients in bodymass. (c) The scaling coefficients show that large herbivores make a disproportionate contribution to lateral nutrient transfer. We apply the diffusion equation to a case study of Kruger National Park to estimate the conditions under which mammal-driven nutrient transport is comparable in magnitude to other (abiotic) nutrient fluxes (inputs and losses). Finally, a global analysis of mammalian herbivore transport is presented, using a comprehensive database of contemporary animal distributions. We show that continents vary greatly in terms of the importance of animal-driven nutrient fluxes, and also that perturbations to nutrient cycles are potentially quite large if threatened large herbivores are driven to extinction.

Species-fragmented area relationship

The species-area relationship (SAR) gives a quantitative description of the increasing number of species in a community with increasing area of habitat. In conservation, SARs have been used to predict the number of extinctions when the area of habitat is reduced. Such predictions are most needed for landscapes rather than for individual habitat fragments, but SAR-based predictions of extinctions for landscapes with highly fragmented habitat are likely to be biased because SAR assumes contiguous habitat. In reality, habitat loss is typically accompanied by habitat fragmentation. To quantify the effect of fragmentation in addition to the effect of habitat loss on the number of species, we extend the power-law SAR to the species-fragmented area relationship. This model unites the single-species metapopulation theory with the multispecies SAR for communities. We demonstrate with a realistic simulation model and with empirical data for forest-inhabiting subtropical birds that the species-fragmented area relationship gives a far superior prediction than SAR of the number of species in fragmented landscapes. The results demonstrate that for communities of species that are not well adapted to live in fragmented landscapes, the conventional SAR underestimates the number of extinctions for landscapes in which little habitat remains and it is highly fragmented.

Mutualism Disruption Threatens Global Plant Biodiversity: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

As global environmental change accelerates, biodiversity losses can disrupt interspecific interactions. Extinctions of mutualist partners can create "widow" species, which may face reduced ecological fitness. Hypothetically, such mutualism disruptions could have cascading effects on biodiversity by causing additional species coextinctions. However, the scope of this problem - the magnitude of biodiversity that may lose mutualist partners and the consequences of these losses - remains unknown.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We conducted a systematic review and synthesis of data from a broad range of sources to estimate the threat posed by vertebrate extinctions to the global biodiversity of vertebrate-dispersed and -pollinated plants. Though enormous research gaps persist, our analysis identified Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, and global oceanic islands as geographic regions at particular risk of disruption of these mutualisms; within these regions, percentages of plant species likely affected range from 2.1-4.5%. Widowed plants are likely to experience reproductive declines of 40-58%, potentially threatening their persistence in the context of other global change stresses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our systematic approach demonstrates that thousands of species may be impacted by disruption in one class of mutualisms, but extinctions will likely disrupt other mutualisms, as well. Although uncertainty is high, there is evidence that mutualism disruption directly threatens significant biodiversity in some geographic regions. Conservation measures with explicit focus on mutualistic functions could be necessary to bolster populations of widowed species and maintain ecosystem functions.

Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%), 670-933 amphibian (11-15%), and 47-73 coral species (6-9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.

Nonrandom extinction patterns can modulate pest control service decline

Changes in biodiversity will mediate the consequences of agricultural intensification and expansion for ecosystem services. Regulating services, like pollination and pest control, generally decline with species loss. In nature, however, relationships between service provision and species richness are not always strong, partially because anthropogenic disturbances purge species from communities in nonrandom orders. The same traits that make for effective service providers may also confer resistance or sensitivity to anthropogenic disturbances, which may either temper or accelerate declines in service provision with species loss. We modeled a community of predators interacting with insect pest prey, and identified the contexts in which pest control provision was most sensitive to species loss. We found pest populations increased rapidly when functionally unique and dietary-generalist predators were lost first, with up to 20% lower pest control provision than random loss. In general, pest abundance increased most in the scenarios that freed more pest species from predation. Species loss also decreased the likelihood that the most effective service providers were present. In communities composed of species with identical traits, predators were equally effective service providers and, when competing predators went extinct, remaining community members assumed their functional roles. In more realistic trait-diverse communities, predators differed in pest control efficacy, and remaining predators could not fully compensate for the loss of their competitors, causing steeper declines in pest control provision with predator species loss. These results highlight diet breadth in particular as a key predictor of service provision, as it affects both the way species respond to and alter their environments. More generally, our model provides testable hypotheses for predicting how nonrandom species loss alters relationships between biodiversity and pest control provision.

Diversity in time and space: wanted dead and alive

Current patterns of biological diversity are influenced by both historical and present-day factors, yet research in ecology and evolution is largely split between paleontological and neontological studies. Responding to recent calls for integration, we provide a conceptual framework that capitalizes on data and methods from both disciplines to investigate fundamental processes. We highlight the opportunities arising from a combined approach with four examples: (i) which mechanisms generate spatial and temporal variation in diversity; (ii) how traits evolve; (iii) what determines the temporal dynamics of geographical ranges and ecological niches; and (iv) how species-environment and biotic interactions shape community structure. Our framework provides conceptual guidelines for combining paleontological and neontological perspectives to unravel the fundamental processes shaping life on Earth.

What makes people healthy, happy, and fulfilled in the face of current world challenges?

Recent research on the relations of personality to well-being shows that the people who are most healthy, happy and fulfilled are those who are high in all three of the character traits of self-directedness, cooperativeness, and self-transcendence as measured by the Temperament and Character Inventory. In the past, the healthy personality has often been considered to require only high self-directedness and high cooperativeness. However, now the self-centred behaviour of people who are low in self-transcendence is degrading the conditions needed for sustainable life by all human beings. Consequently, human beings need to and can develop their capacity for self-transcendence in order to maintain their individual and collective well-being.

Climate change frames debate over the extinction of megafauna in Sahul (Pleistocene Australia-New Guinea)

Around 88 large vertebrate taxa disappeared from Sahul sometime during the Pleistocene, with the majority of losses (54 taxa) clearly taking place within the last 400,000 years. The largest was the 2.8-ton browsing Diprotodon optatum, whereas the ∼100- to 130-kg marsupial lion, Thylacoleo carnifex, the world's most specialized mammalian carnivore, and Varanus priscus, the largest lizard known, were formidable predators. Explanations for these extinctions have centered on climatic change or human activities. Here, we review the evidence and arguments for both. Human involvement in the disappearance of some species remains possible but unproven. Mounting evidence points to the loss of most species before the peopling of Sahul (circa 50-45 ka) and a significant role for climate change in the disappearance of the continent's megafauna.

Assessing global marine biodiversity status within a coupled socio-ecological perspective

People value the existence of a variety of marine species and habitats, many of which are negatively impacted by human activities. The Convention on Biological Diversity and other international and national policy agreements have set broad goals for reducing the rate of biodiversity loss. However, efforts to conserve biodiversity cannot be effective without comprehensive metrics both to assess progress towards meeting conservation goals and to account for measures that reduce pressures so that positive actions are encouraged. We developed an index based on a global assessment of the condition of marine biodiversity using publically available data to estimate the condition of species and habitats within 151 coastal countries. Our assessment also included data on social and ecological pressures on biodiversity as well as variables that indicate whether good governance is in place to reduce them. Thus, our index is a social as well as ecological measure of the current and likely future status of biodiversity. As part of our analyses, we set explicit reference points or targets that provide benchmarks for success and allow for comparative assessment of current conditions. Overall country-level scores ranged from 43 to 95 on a scale of 1 to 100, but countries that scored high for species did not necessarily score high for habitats. Although most current status scores were relatively high, likely future status scores for biodiversity were much lower in most countries due to negative trends for both species and habitats. We also found a strong positive relationship between the Human Development Index and resilience measures that could promote greater sustainability by reducing pressures. This relationship suggests that many developing countries lack effective governance, further jeopardizing their ability to maintain species and habitats in the future.

Europe's other debt crisis caused by the long legacy of future extinctions

Rapid economic development in the past century has translated into severe pressures on species survival as a result of increasing land-use change, environmental pollution, and the spread of invasive alien species. However, though the impact of these pressures on biodiversity is substantial, it could be seriously underestimated if population declines of plants and animals lag behind contemporary environmental degradation. Here, we test for such a delay in impact by relating numbers of threatened species appearing on national red lists to historical and contemporary levels of socioeconomic pressures. Across 22 European countries, the proportions of vascular plants, bryophytes, mammals, reptiles, dragonflies, and grasshoppers facing medium-to-high extinction risks are more closely matched to indicators of socioeconomic pressures (i.e., human population density, per capita gross domestic product, and a measure of land use intensity) from the early or mid-, rather than the late, 20th century. We conclude that, irrespective of recent conservation actions, large-scale risks to biodiversity lag considerably behind contemporary levels of socioeconomic pressures. The negative impact of human activities on current biodiversity will not become fully realized until several decades into the future. Mitigating extinction risks might be an even greater challenge if temporal delays mean many threatened species might already be destined toward extinction.