Multiethnic polygenic risk scores improve risk prediction in diverse populations

Portability of 245 polygenic scores when derived from the UK Biobank and applied to 9 ancestry groups from the same cohort

The low portability of polygenic scores (PGSs) across global populations is a major concern that must be addressed before PGSs can be used for everyone in the clinic. Indeed, prediction accuracy has been shown to decay as a function of the genetic distance between the training and test cohorts. However, such cohorts differ not only in their genetic distance but also in their geographical distance and their data collection and assaying, conflating multiple factors. In this study, we examine the extent to which PGSs are transferable between ancestries by deriving polygenic scores for 245 curated traits from the UK Biobank data and applying them in nine ancestry groups from the same cohort. By restricting both training and testing to the UK Biobank data, we reduce the risk of environmental and genotyping confounding from using different cohorts. We define the nine ancestry groups at a sub-continental level, based on a simple, robust, and effective method that we introduce here. We then apply two different predictive methods to derive polygenic scores for all 245 phenotypes and show a systematic and dramatic reduction in portability of PGSs trained using Northwestern European individuals and applied to nine ancestry groups. These analyses demonstrate that prediction already drops off within European ancestries and reduces globally in proportion to genetic distance. Altogether, our study provides unique and robust insights into the PGS portability problem.

Genetics of common cerebral small vessel disease

Cerebral small vessel disease (cSVD) is a leading cause of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke and a major contributor to dementia. Covert cSVD, which is detectable with brain MRI but does not manifest as clinical stroke, is highly prevalent in the general population, particularly with increasing age. Advances in technologies and collaborative work have led to substantial progress in the identification of common genetic variants that are associated with cSVD-related stroke (ischaemic and haemorrhagic) and MRI-defined covert cSVD. In this Review, we provide an overview of collaborative studies - mostly genome-wide association studies (GWAS) - that have identified >50 independent genetic loci associated with the risk of cSVD. We describe how these associations have provided novel insights into the biological mechanisms involved in cSVD, revealed patterns of shared genetic variation across cSVD traits, and shed new light on the continuum between rare, monogenic and common, multifactorial cSVD. We consider how GWAS summary statistics have been leveraged for Mendelian randomization studies to explore causal pathways in cSVD and provide genetic evidence for drug effects, and how the combination of findings from GWAS with gene expression resources and drug target databases has enabled identification of putative causal genes and provided proof-of-concept for drug repositioning potential. We also discuss opportunities for polygenic risk prediction, multi-ancestry approaches and integration with other omics data.

Genetic risk scores and dementia risk across different ethnic groups in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Genetic Risk Scores (GRS) for predicting dementia risk have mostly been used in people of European ancestry with limited testing in other ancestry groups.

METHODS

We conducted a logistic regression with all-cause dementia as the outcome and z-standardised GRS as the exposure across diverse ethnic groups.

FINDINGS

There was variation in frequency of APOE alleles across ethnic groups. Per standard deviation (SD) increase in z-GRS including APOE, the odds ratio (OR) for dementia was 1.73 (95%CI 1.69-1.77). Z-GRS excluding APOE also increased dementia risk (OR 1.21 per SD increase, 95% CI 1.18-1.24) and there was no evidence that ethnicity modified this association. Prediction of secondary outcomes was less robust in those not of European ancestry when APOE was excluded from the GRS.

INTERPRETATION

z-GRS derived from studies in people of European ancestry can be used to quantify genetic risk in people from more diverse ancestry groups. Urgent work is needed to include people from diverse ancestries in future genetic risk studies to make this field more inclusive.

Polygenic Risk Scores in Alzheimer's Disease Genetics: Methodology, Applications, Inclusion, and Diversity

The success of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) completed in the last 15 years has reinforced a key fact: polygenic architecture makes a substantial contribution to variation of susceptibility to complex disease, including Alzheimer's disease. One straight-forward way to capture this architecture and predict which individuals in a population are most at risk is to calculate a polygenic risk score (PRS). This score aggregates the risk conferred across multiple genetic variants, ultimately representing an individual's predicted genetic susceptibility for a disease. PRS have received increasing attention after having been successfully used in complex traits. This has brought with it renewed attention on new methods which improve the accuracy of risk prediction. While these applications are initially informative, their utility is far from equitable: the majority of PRS models use samples heavily if not entirely of individuals of European descent. This basic approach opens concerns of health equity if applied inaccurately to other population groups, or health disparity if we fail to use them at all. In this review we will examine the methods of calculating PRS and some of their previous uses in disease prediction. We also advocate for, with supporting scientific evidence, inclusion of data from diverse populations in these existing and future studies of population risk via PRS.

Populations, Traits, and Their Spatial Structure in Humans

The spatial distribution of genetic variants is jointly determined by geography, past demographic processes, natural selection, and its interplay with environmental variation. A fraction of these genetic variants are "causal alleles" that affect the manifestation of a complex trait. The effect exerted by these causal alleles on complex traits can be independent or dependent on the environment. Understanding the evolutionary processes that shape the spatial structure of causal alleles is key to comprehend the spatial distribution of complex traits. Natural selection, past population size changes, range expansions, consanguinity, assortative mating, archaic introgression, admixture, and the environment can alter the frequencies, effect sizes, and heterozygosities of causal alleles. This provides a genetic axis along which complex traits can vary. However, complex traits also vary along biogeographical and sociocultural axes which are often correlated with genetic axes in complex ways. The purpose of this review is to consider these genetic and environmental axes in concert and examine the ways they can help us decipher the variation in complex traits that is visible in humans today. This initiative necessarily implies a discussion of populations, traits, the ability to infer and interpret "genetic" components of complex traits, and how these have been impacted by adaptive events. In this review, we provide a history-aware discussion on these topics using both the recent and more distant past of our academic discipline and its relevant contexts.

Polygenic risk scores: the future of cancer risk prediction, screening, and precision prevention

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have shown that the genetic architecture of cancers are highly polygenic and enabled researchers to identify genetic risk loci for cancers. The genetic variants associated with a cancer can be combined into a polygenic risk score (PRS), which captures part of an individual's genetic susceptibility to cancer. Recently, PRSs have been widely used in cancer risk prediction and are shown to be capable of identifying groups of individuals who could benefit from the knowledge of their probabilistic susceptibility to cancer, which leads to an increased interest in understanding the potential utility of PRSs that might further refine the assessment and management of cancer risk. In this context, we provide an overview of the major discoveries from cancer GWASs. We then review the methodologies used for PRS construction, and describe steps for the development and evaluation of risk prediction models that include PRS and/or conventional risk factors. Potential utility of PRSs in cancer risk prediction, screening, and precision prevention are illustrated. Challenges and practical considerations relevant to the implementation of PRSs in health care settings are discussed.

Interactions between Genetic, Prenatal, Cortisol, and Parenting Influences on Adolescent Substance Use and Frequency: A TRAILS Study

INTRODUCTION

Dynamic relations between genetic, hormone, and pre- and postnatal environments are theorized as critically important for adolescent substance use but are rarely tested in multifactorial models. This study assessed the impact of interactions of genetic risk and cortisol reactivity with prenatal and parenting influences on both any and frequency of adolescent substance use.

METHODS

Data are from the TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS), a prospective longitudinal, multi-rater study of 2,230 Dutch adolescents. Genetic risk was assessed via 3 substance-specific polygenic scores. Mothers retrospectively reported prenatal risk when adolescents were 11 years old. Adolescents rated their parents' warmth and hostility at age 11. Salivary cortisol reactivity was measured in response to a social stress task at age 16. Adolescents' self-reported cigarette, alcohol, and cannabis use frequency at age 16.

RESULTS

A multivariate hurdle regression model showed that polygenic risk for smoking, alcohol, and cannabis predicted any use of each substance, respectively, but predicted more frequent use only for smoking. Blunted cortisol reactivity predicted any use and more frequent use for all 3 outcomes. There were 2 interactions: blunted cortisol reactivity exacerbated the association of polygenic risk with any smoking and the association of prenatal risk with any alcohol use.

CONCLUSION

Polygenic risk seems of importance for early use but less so for frequency of use, whereas blunted cortisol reactivity was correlated with both. Blunted cortisol reactivity may also catalyze early risks for substance use, though to a limited degree. Gene-environment interactions play no role in the context of this multifactorial model.

Clinical utility of polygenic risk scores for coronary artery disease

Over the past decade, substantial progress has been made in the discovery of alleles contributing to the risk of coronary artery disease. In addition to providing causal insights into disease, these endeavours have yielded and enabled the refinement of polygenic risk scores. These scores can be used to predict incident coronary artery disease in multiple cohorts and indicate the clinical response to some preventive therapies in post hoc analyses of clinical trials. These observations and the widespread ability to calculate polygenic risk scores from direct-to-consumer and health-care-associated biobanks have raised many questions about responsible clinical adoption. In this Review, we describe technical and downstream considerations for the derivation and validation of polygenic risk scores and current evidence for their efficacy and safety. We discuss the implementation of these scores in clinical medicine for uses including risk prediction and screening algorithms for coronary artery disease, prioritization of patient subgroups that are likely to derive benefit from treatment, and efficient prospective clinical trial designs.

Genetic prediction of complex traits with polygenic scores: a statistical review

Accurate genetic prediction of complex traits can facilitate disease screening, improve early intervention, and aid in the development of personalized medicine. Genetic prediction of complex traits requires the development of statistical methods that can properly model polygenic architecture and construct a polygenic score (PGS). We present a comprehensive review of 46 methods for PGS construction. We connect the majority of these methods through a multiple linear regression framework which can be instrumental for understanding their prediction performance for traits with distinct genetic architectures. We discuss the practical considerations of PGS analysis as well as challenges and future directions of PGS method development. We hope our review serves as a useful reference both for statistical geneticists who develop PGS methods and for data analysts who perform PGS analysis.

Genetic Risk Prediction of COVID-19 Susceptibility and Severity in the Indian Population

Host genetic variants can determine their susceptibility to COVID-19 infection and severity as noted in a recent Genome-wide Association Study (GWAS). Given the prominent genetic differences in Indian sub-populations as well as differential prevalence of COVID-19, here, we compute genetic risk scores in diverse Indian sub-populations that may predict differences in the severity of COVID-19 outcomes. We utilized the top 100 most significantly associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from a GWAS by Pairo-Castineira et al. determining the genetic susceptibility to severe COVID-19 infection, to compute population-wise polygenic risk scores (PRS) for populations represented in the Indian Genome Variation Consortium (IGVC) database. Using a generalized linear model accounting for confounding variables, we found that median PRS was significantly associated (p < 2 x 10⁻¹⁶) with COVID-19 mortality in each district corresponding to the population studied and had the largest effect on mortality (regression coefficient = 10.25). As a control we repeated our analysis on randomly selected 100 non-associated SNPs several times and did not find significant association. Therefore, we conclude that genetic susceptibility may play a major role in determining the differences in COVID-19 outcomes and mortality across the Indian sub-continent. We suggest that combining PRS with other observed risk-factors in a Bayesian framework may provide a better prediction model for ascertaining high COVID-19 risk groups and to design more effective public health resource allocation and vaccine distribution schemes.

Incorporating functional priors improves polygenic prediction accuracy in UK Biobank and 23andMe data sets

Polygenic risk prediction is a widely investigated topic because of its promising clinical applications. Genetic variants in functional regions of the genome are enriched for complex trait heritability. Here, we introduce a method for polygenic prediction, LDpred-funct, that leverages trait-specific functional priors to increase prediction accuracy. We fit priors using the recently developed baseline-LD model, including coding, conserved, regulatory, and LD-related annotations. We analytically estimate posterior mean causal effect sizes and then use cross-validation to regularize these estimates, improving prediction accuracy for sparse architectures. We applied LDpred-funct to predict 21 highly heritable traits in the UK Biobank (avg N = 373 K as training data). LDpred-funct attained a +4.6% relative improvement in average prediction accuracy (avg prediction R2 = 0.144; highest R2 = 0.413 for height) compared to SBayesR (the best method that does not incorporate functional information). For height, meta-analyzing training data from UK Biobank and 23andMe cohorts (N = 1107 K) increased prediction R2 to 0.431. Our results show that incorporating functional priors improves polygenic prediction accuracy, consistent with the functional architecture of complex traits.

Beyond GWAS: from simple associations to functional insights

Each human, when born, has slightly different DNA sequences, which make each of us unique. The variations in DNA sequences are called genetic variants. The primary aim of genome-wide association study (GWAS) is to detect associations between genetic variants and human phenotypes. Since GWAS focuses on germ-line variants, there is no reverse causation. Therefore, GWAS is one of the few tools that can assess the causality of human diseases. In the past 10 years, many large-scale GWAS have been conducted. Although the primary outputs of GWAS are just a series of statistics, its downstream analyses provided many insights beyond simple associations: the causal mechanisms for autoimmune diseases and shared etiology between diseases. Moreover, GWAS downstream analyses generated scores potentially helpful in predicting clinical outcomes of each patient. This review focuses on GWAS for autoimmune diseases and introduces significant achievements of its downstream analyses. We also provide future directions that potentially overcome current limitations. We restrict our discussion to common autoimmune diseases (e.g., rheumatoid arthritis) since rare Mendelian diseases possess distinct genetic etiologies and are not tested by GWAS.

The Polygenic and Monogenic Basis of Paediatric Fractures

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Fractures are frequently encountered in paediatric practice. Although recurrent fractures in children usually unveil a monogenic syndrome, paediatric fracture risk could be shaped by the individual genetic background influencing the acquisition of bone mineral density, and therefore, the skeletal fragility as shown in adults. Here, we examine paediatric fractures from the perspective of monogenic and complex trait genetics.

RECENT FINDINGS

Large-scale genome-wide studies in children have identified ~44 genetic loci associated with fracture or bone traits whereas ~35 monogenic diseases characterized by paediatric fractures have been described. Genetic variation can predispose to paediatric fractures through monogenic risk variants with a large effect and polygenic risk involving many variants of small effects. Studying genetic factors influencing peak bone attainment might help in identifying individuals at higher risk of developing early-onset osteoporosis and discovering drug targets to be used as bone restorative pharmacotherapies to prevent, or even reverse, bone loss later in life.

A systematic review of gene-by-intervention studies of alcohol and other substance use

Alcohol and other substance use problems are common, and the efficacy of current prevention and intervention programs is limited. Genetics may contribute to differential effectiveness of psychosocial prevention and intervention programs. This paper reviews gene-by-intervention (G×I) studies of alcohol and other substance use, and implications for integrating genetics into prevention science. Systematic review yielded 17 studies for inclusion. Most studies focused on youth substance prevention, alcohol was the most common outcome, and measures of genotype were heterogeneous. All studies reported at least one significant G×I interaction. We discuss these findings in the context of the history and current state of genetics, and provide recommendations for future G×I research. These include the integration of genome-wide polygenic scores into prevention studies, broad outcome measurement, recruitment of underrepresented populations, testing mediators of G×I effects, and addressing ethical implications. Integrating genetic research into prevention science, and training researchers to work fluidly across these fields, will enhance our ability to determine the best intervention for each individual across development. With growing public interest in obtaining personalized genetic information, we anticipate that the integration of genetics and prevention science will become increasingly important as we move into the era of precision medicine.

On cross-ancestry cancer polygenic risk scores

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) can provide useful information for personalized risk stratification and disease risk assessment, especially when combined with non-genetic risk factors. However, their construction depends on the availability of summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) independent from the target sample. For best compatibility, it was reported that GWAS and the target sample should match in terms of ancestries. Yet, GWAS, especially in the field of cancer, often lack diversity and are predominated by European ancestry. This bias is a limiting factor in PRS research. By using electronic health records and genetic data from the UK Biobank, we contrast the utility of breast and prostate cancer PRS derived from external European-ancestry-based GWAS across African, East Asian, European, and South Asian ancestry groups. We highlight differences in the PRS distributions of these groups that are amplified when PRS methods condense hundreds of thousands of variants into a single score. While European-GWAS-derived PRS were not directly transferrable across ancestries on an absolute scale, we establish their predictive potential when considering them separately within each group. For example, the top 10% of the breast cancer PRS distributions within each ancestry group each revealed significant enrichments of breast cancer cases compared to the bottom 90% (odds ratio of 2.81 [95%CI: 2.69,2.93] in European, 2.88 [1.85, 4.48] in African, 2.60 [1.25, 5.40] in East Asian, and 2.33 [1.55, 3.51] in South Asian individuals). Our findings highlight a compromise solution for PRS research to compensate for the lack of diversity in well-powered European GWAS efforts while recruitment of diverse participants in the field catches up.

The translation of results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) into polygenic risk scores (PRS) to predict disease risk or outcomes is a major aspiration in the field of statistical genetics. While there has been significant progress in this area for many complex diseases, the lack of diversity in GWAS is transferred to PRS research. Discovery of genetic risk factors, especially for cancer traits, are almost exclusively based on individuals with European-ancestry, and it remains unclear if these results can be utilized for PRS applications across non-European ancestries.

Here, we used external European-ancestry based GWAS results to construct breast and prostate cancer PRS and showcase their utility as predictors across African, East Asian, European, and South Asian ancestry groups using data from the UK Biobank. We observed ancestry-specific PRS distributions, that when scaled within each group, could identify individuals at higher risk of prostate and breast cancer in each group. Our study highlights an opportunity to use results from large European GWAS for the construction of PRS in diverse ancestry groups. To realize the full potential of PRS in early detection and prevention of cancer across ethnic groups, we need rapid expanded recruitment of diverse participants in the field of GWAS.

Evaluating Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast Cancer in Women of African Ancestry

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been demonstrated to identify women of European, Asian, and Latino ancestry at elevated risk of developing breast cancer (BC). We evaluated the performance of existing PRSs trained in European ancestry populations among women of African ancestry.

METHODS

We assembled genotype data for women of African ancestry, including 9241 case subjects and 10 193 control subjects. We evaluated associations of 179- and 313-variant PRSs with overall and subtype-specific BC risk. PRS discriminatory accuracy was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We also evaluated a recalibrated PRS, replacing the index variant with variants in each region that better captured risk in women of African ancestry and estimated lifetime absolute risk of BC in African Americans by PRS category.

RESULTS

For overall BC, the odds ratio per SD of the 313-variant PRS (PRS313) was 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.571 (95% CI = 0.562 to 0.579). Compared with women with average risk (40th-60th PRS percentile), women in the top decile of PRS313 had a 1.54-fold increased risk (95% CI = 1.38-fold to 1.72-fold). By age 85 years, the absolute risk of overall BC was 19.6% for African American women in the top 1% of PRS313 and 6.7% for those in the lowest 1%. The recalibrated PRS did not improve BC risk prediction.

CONCLUSION

The PRSs stratify BC risk in women of African ancestry, with attenuated performance compared with that reported in European, Asian, and Latina populations. Future work is needed to improve BC risk stratification for women of African ancestry.

The omnigenic model and polygenic prediction of complex traits

The omnigenic model was proposed as a framework to understand the highly polygenic architecture of complex traits revealed by genome-wide association studies (GWASs). I argue that this model also explains recent observations about cross-population genetic effects, specifically the low transferability of polygenic scores and the lack of clear evidence for polygenic selection. In particular, the omnigenic model explains why the effects of most GWAS variants vary between populations. This interpretation has several consequences for the evolutionary interpretation and practical use of GWAS summary statistics and polygenic scores. First, some polygenic scores may be applicable only in populations of the same ancestry and environment as the discovery population. Second, most GWAS associations will have differing effects between populations and are unlikely to be robust clinical targets. Finally, it may not always be possible to detect polygenic selection from population genetic data. These considerations make it difficult to interpret the clinical and evolutionary meanings of polygenic scores without an explicit model of genetic architecture.

Mapping Pathways by Which Genetic Risk Influences Adolescent Externalizing Behavior: The Interplay Between Externalizing Polygenic Risk Scores, Parental Knowledge, and Peer Substance Use

Genetic predispositions and environmental influences both play an important role in adolescent externalizing behavior; however, they are not always independent. To elucidate gene-environment interplay, we examined the interrelationships between externalizing polygenic risk scores, parental knowledge, and peer substance use in impacting adolescent externalizing behavior across two time-points in a high-risk longitudinal sample of 1,200 adolescents (764 European and 436 African ancestry; Mage = 12.99) from the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism. Results from multivariate path analysis indicated that externalizing polygenic scores were directly associated with adolescent externalizing behavior but also indirectly via peer substance use, in the European ancestry sample. No significant polygenic association nor indirect effects of genetic risk were observed in the African ancestry group, likely due to more limited power. Our findings underscore the importance of gene-environment interplay and suggest peer substance use may be a mechanism through which genetic risk influences adolescent externalizing behavior.

Polygenic Risk for Aggression Predicts Adult Substance Use Disorder Diagnoses via Substance Use Offending in Emerging Adulthood and is Moderated by a Family-Centered Intervention

A substance use offense reflects an encounter with law enforcement and the court system in response to breaking the law which may increase risk for substance use problems later in life. Individuals may also be at risk for substance use offending and substance use problems based on genetic predisposition. We examined a mediation model in which polygenic risk for aggression predicted adult substance use disorder diagnoses (SUD) via substance use offending in emerging adulthood. In addition, we explored for potential attenuation of genetic influences on these outcomes by a family-based intervention, the Family Check-Up (FCU). Secondary data analyses based upon the Project Alliance 1 sample was conducted among those with genetic data (n = 631; 322 from control and 309 from FCU intervention). The sample was ethnically diverse (30% African American, 44% European American, 6% Latinx, 4% Asian American, 3% Native American, and 13% Other). Greater polygenic risk for aggression was found to increase risk for substance use violations (age 19-23), which in turn was associated with greater likelihood of being diagnosed with SUD at age 27. A gene-by-intervention effect was found in which individuals in the control group had greater risk for SUD with increasing polygenic risk for aggression. Some convergence in results was found when replicating analyses in African American and European American subgroups. Results imply that genetic predisposition may increase risk for problematic substance use later in life via antisocial behavior, such as substance use offending, and that this can be attenuated by a family-centered intervention.

Quantitative Human Paleogenetics: What can Ancient DNA Tell us About Complex Trait Evolution?

Genetic association data from national biobanks and large-scale association studies have provided new prospects for understanding the genetic evolution of complex traits and diseases in humans. In turn, genomes from ancient human archaeological remains are now easier than ever to obtain, and provide a direct window into changes in frequencies of trait-associated alleles in the past. This has generated a new wave of studies aiming to analyse the genetic component of traits in historic and prehistoric times using ancient DNA, and to determine whether any such traits were subject to natural selection. In humans, however, issues about the portability and robustness of complex trait inference across different populations are particularly concerning when predictions are extended to individuals that died thousands of years ago, and for which little, if any, phenotypic validation is possible. In this review, we discuss the advantages of incorporating ancient genomes into studies of trait-associated variants, the need for models that can better accommodate ancient genomes into quantitative genetic frameworks, and the existing limits to inferences about complex trait evolution, particularly with respect to past populations.

New Polygenic Risk Score to Predict High Myopia in Singapore Chinese Children

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to develop an Asian polygenic risk score (PRS) to predict high myopia (HM) in Chinese children in the Singapore Cohort of Risk factors for Myopia (SCORM) cohort.

Methods

We included children followed from 6 to 11 years old until teenage years (12–18 years old). Cycloplegic autorefraction, ultrasound biometry, Illumina HumanHap 550, or 550 Duo Beadarrays, demographics, and environmental factors data were obtained. The PRS was generated from the Consortium for Refractive Error and Myopia genomewide association study (n = 542,934) and the Strabismus, Amblyopia, and Refractive Error in Singapore children Study (n = 500). The Growing Up in Singapore Towards healthy Outcomes Cohort study (n = 339) was the replication cohort. The outcome was teenage HM (≤ −5.00 D) with predictive performance assessed using the area under the curve (AUC).

Results

Mean baseline age ± SD was 7.85 ± 0.84 (n = 1004) and 571 attended the teenage visit; 23.3% had HM. In multivariate analysis, the PRS was associated with a myopic spherical equivalent with an incremental R² of 0.041 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.010, 0.073; P < 0.001). AUC for HM (0.77 [95% CI = 0.71–0.83]) performed better (P = 0.02) with the PRS compared with a model without (0.72 [95% CI = 0.65, 0.78]). Children at the top 25% PRS risk had a 2.34-fold-greater risk of HM (95% CI = 1.53, 3.55; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The new Asian PRS improved the predictive performance to detect children at risk of HM.

Translational Relevance

Clinicians may use the PRS with other predictive factors to identify high risk children and guide interventions to reduce the risk of HM later in life.

Generalizability of Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast Cancer Among Women With European, African, and Latinx Ancestry

IMPORTANCE

Multiple polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for breast cancer have been developed from large research consortia; however, their generalizability to diverse clinical settings is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the performance of previously developed breast cancer PRSs in a clinical setting for women of European, African, and Latinx ancestry.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study using the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) network data set included 39 591 women from 9 contributing medical centers in the US that had electronic medical records (EMR) linked to genotype data. Breast cancer cases and controls were identified through a validated EMR phenotyping algorithm.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between breast cancer risk and 7 previously developed PRSs, adjusting for age, study site, breast cancer family history, and first 3 ancestry informative principal components.

RESULTS

This study included 39 591 women: 33 594 with European, 3801 with African, and 2196 with Latinx ancestry. The mean (SD) age at breast cancer diagnosis was 60.7 (13.0), 58.8 (12.5), and 60.1 (13.0) years for women with European, African, and Latinx ancestry, respectively. PRSs derived from women with European ancestry were associated with breast cancer risk in women with European ancestry (highest odds ratio [OR] per 1-SD increase, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.41-1.51), women with Latinx ancestry (highest OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.09-1.58), and women with African ancestry (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.05-1.35). For women with European ancestry, this association with breast cancer risk was largest in the extremes of the PRS distribution, with ORs ranging from 2.19 (95% CI, 1.84-2.53) to 2.48 (95% CI, 1.89-3.25) for the 3 different PRSs examined for those in the highest 1% of the PRS compared with those in the middle quantile. Among women with Latinx and African ancestries at the extremes of the PRS distribution, there were no statistically significant associations.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study found that PRS models derived from women with European ancestry for breast cancer risk generalized well for women with European, Latinx, and African ancestries across different clinical settings, although the effect sizes for women with African ancestry were smaller, likely because of differences in risk allele frequencies and linkage disequilibrium patterns. These results highlight the need to improve representation of diverse population groups, particularly women with African ancestry, in genomic research cohorts.

Multi-omics approach to precision medicine for immune-mediated diseases

Recent innovation in high-throughput sequencing technologies has drastically empowered the scientific research. Consequently, now, it is possible to capture comprehensive profiles of samples at multiple levels including genome, epigenome, and transcriptome at a time. Applying these kinds of rich information to clinical settings is of great social significance. For some traits such as cardiovascular diseases, attempts to apply omics datasets in clinical practice for the prediction of the disease risk have already shown promising results, although still under way for immune-mediated diseases. Multiple studies have tried to predict treatment response in immune-mediated diseases using genomic, transcriptomic, or clinical information, showing various possible indicators. For better prediction of treatment response or disease outcome in immune-mediated diseases, combining multi-layer information together may increase the power. In addition, in order to efficiently pick up meaningful information from the massive data, high-quality annotation of genomic functions is also crucial. In this review, we discuss the achievement so far and the future direction of multi-omics approach to immune-mediated diseases.

[Genetic Analyses of Complex Phenotypes Through the Example of Anorexia Nervosa and Bodyweight Regulation]

Genetic Analyses of Complex Phenotypes Through the Example of Anorexia Nervosa and Bodyweight Regulation Abstract. Genetics variants are important for the regulation of bodyweight and also contribute to the genetic architecture of eating disorders. For many decades, family studies, a subentity of so-called formal genetic studies, were employed to determine the genetic share of bodyweight and eating disorders and found heritability rates exceeding 50 % with both phenotypes. Because of this significant contribution of genetics, the search for those genes and their variants related to the variance in bodyweight and the etiology of eating disorders - or both - was commenced by the early 1990s. Initially, candidate genes studies were conducted targeting those genes most plausibly related to either phenotype, especially based on pathophysiological considerations. This approach, however, implicated only a few genes in the regulation of bodyweight and did not provide significant insights into the genetics of eating disorders. Driven by considerable methodological advances in genetic research, especially related to the introduction of so-called genome-wide association studies by the beginning of the 21st century, today more than 1,000 variants/loci have been detected that affect the regulation of bodyweight. Eight such loci have been identified regarding anorexia nervosa (AN). These results as well as those from cross-disorder analyses provide insights into the complex regulation of bodyweight and demonstrated unforeseen pathomechanisms for AN.

MegaLMM: Mega-scale linear mixed models for genomic predictions with thousands of traits

Large-scale phenotype data can enhance the power of genomic prediction in plant and animal breeding, as well as human genetics. However, the statistical foundation of multi-trait genomic prediction is based on the multivariate linear mixed effect model, a tool notorious for its fragility when applied to more than a handful of traits. We present MegaLMM, a statistical framework and associated software package for mixed model analyses of a virtually unlimited number of traits. Using three examples with real plant data, we show that MegaLMM can leverage thousands of traits at once to significantly improve genetic value prediction accuracy.

Genome-Wide Approach to Measure Variant-Based Heritability of Drug Outcome Phenotypes

Pharmacogenomic studies have successfully identified variants-typically with large effect sizes in drug target and metabolism enzymes-that predict drug outcome phenotypes. However, these variants may account for a limited proportion of phenotype variability attributable to the genome. Using genome-wide common variation, we measured the narrow-sense heritability ( h SNP 2 ) of seven pharmacodynamic and five pharmacokinetic phenotypes across three cardiovascular drugs, two antibiotics, and three immunosuppressants. We used a Bayesian hierarchical mixed model, BayesR, to model the distribution of genome-wide variant effect sizes for each drug phenotype as a mixture of four normal distributions of fixed variance (0, 0.01%, 0.1%, and 1% of the total additive genetic variance). This model allowed us to parse h SNP 2 into bins representing contributions of no-effect, small-effect, moderate-effect, and large-effect variants, respectively. For the 12 phenotypes, a median of 969 (range 235-6,304) unique individuals of European ancestry and a median of 1,201,626 (range 777,427-1,514,275) variants were included in our analyses. The number of variants contributing to h SNP 2 ranged from 2,791 to 5,356 (median 3,347). Estimates for h SNP 2 ranged from 0.05 (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor-induced cough) to 0.59 (gentamicin concentration). Small-effect and moderate-effect variants contributed a majority to h SNP 2 for every phenotype (range 61-95%). We conclude that drug outcome phenotypes are highly polygenic. Thus, larger genome-wide association studies of drug phenotypes are needed both to discover novel variants and to determine how genome-wide approaches may improve clinical prediction of drug outcomes.

Incorporating European GWAS findings improve polygenic risk prediction accuracy of breast cancer among East Asians

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been largely focused on European (EUR) populations. However, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) derived from EUR have been shown to perform worse in non-EURs compared with EURs. In this study, we aim to improve PRS prediction in East Asians (EASs). We introduce a rescaled meta-analysis framework to combine both EUR (N = 122,175) and EAS (N = 30,801) GWAS summary statistics. To improve PRS prediction in EASs, we use a scaling factor to up-weight the EAS data, such that the resulting effect size estimates are more relevant to EASs. We then derive PRSs for EAS from the rescaled meta-analysis results of EAS and EUR data. Evaluated in an independent EAS validation data set, this approach increases the prediction liability-adjusted Nagelkerke's pseudo R2 by 40%, 41%, and 5%, respectively, compared with PRSs derived from an EAS GWAS only, EUR GWAS only, and conventional fixed-effects meta-analysis of EAS and EUR data. The PRS derived from the rescaled meta-analysis approach achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.6059, higher than AUC = 0.5782, 0.5809, 0.6008 for EAS, EUR, and conventional meta-analysis of EAS and EUR. We further compare PRSs constructed by single-nucleotide polymorphisms that have different linkage disequilibrium (LD) scores and minor allele frequencies (MAFs) between EUR and EAS, and observe that lower LD scores or MAF in EAS correspond to poorer PRS performance (AUC = 0.5677, 0.5530, respectively) than higher LD scores or MAF (AUC = 0.589, 0.5993, respectively). We finally build a PRS stratified by LD score differences in EUR and EAS using rescaled meta-analysis, and obtain an AUC of 0.6096, with improvement over other strategies investigated.

Statistical genetics and polygenic risk score for precision medicine

The prediction of disease risks is an essential part of personalized medicine, which includes early disease detection, prevention, and intervention. The polygenic risk score (PRS) has become the standard for quantifying genetic liability in predicting disease risks. PRS utilizes single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with genetic risks elucidated by genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and is calculated as weighted sum scores of these SNPs with genetic risks using their effect sizes from GWASs as their weights. The utilities of PRS have been explored in many common diseases, such as cancer, coronary artery disease, obesity, and diabetes, and in various non-disease traits, such as clinical biomarkers. These applications demonstrated that PRS could identify a high-risk subgroup of these diseases as a predictive biomarker and provide information on modifiable risk factors driving health outcomes. On the other hand, there are several limitations to implementing PRSs in clinical practice, such as biased sensitivity for the ethnic background of PRS calculation and geographical differences even in the same population groups. Also, it remains unclear which method is the most suitable for the prediction with high accuracy among numerous PRS methods developed so far. Although further improvements of its comprehensiveness and generalizability will be needed for its clinical implementation in the future, PRS will be a powerful tool for therapeutic interventions and lifestyle recommendations in a wide range of diseases. Thus, it may ultimately improve the health of an entire population in the future.

Polygenic Risk Scores

As genome-wide association studies have continued to identify loci associated with complex traits, the implications of and necessity for proper use of these findings, including prediction of disease risk, have become apparent. Many complex diseases have numerous associated loci with detectable effects implicating risk for or protection from disease. A common contemporary approach to using this information for disease prediction is through the application of genetic risk scores. These scores estimate an individual's liability for a specific outcome by aggregating the effects of associated loci into a single measure as described in the previous version of this article. Although genetic risk scores have traditionally included variants that meet criteria for genome-wide significance, an extension known as the polygenic risk score has been developed to include the effects of more variants across the entire genome. Here, we describe common methods and software packages for calculating and interpreting polygenic risk scores. In this revised version of the article, we detail information that is needed to perform a polygenic risk score analysis, considerations for planning the analysis and interpreting results, as well as discussion of the limitations based on the choices made. We also provide simulated sample data and a walkthrough for four different polygenic risk score software. © 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC.

Admixture Has Shaped Romani Genetic Diversity in Clinically Relevant Variants

Genetic patterns of inter-population variation are a result of different demographic and adaptive histories, which gradually shape the frequency distribution of the variants. However, the study of clinically relevant mutations has a Eurocentric bias. The Romani, the largest transnational minority ethnic group in Europe, originated in South Asia and received extensive gene flow from West Eurasia. Most medical genetic studies have only explored founder mutations related to Mendelian disorders in this population. Here we analyze exome sequences and genome-wide array data of 89 healthy Spanish Roma individuals to study complex traits and disease. We apply a different framework and focus on variants with both increased and decreased allele frequencies, taking into account their local ancestry. We report several OMIM traits enriched for genes with deleterious variants showing increased frequencies in Roma or in non-Roma (e.g., obesity is enriched in Roma, with an associated variant linked to South Asian ancestry; while non-insulin dependent diabetes is enriched in non-Roma Europeans). In addition, previously reported pathogenic variants also show differences among populations, where some variants segregating at low frequency in non-Roma are virtually absent in the Roma. Lastly, we describe frequency changes in drug-response variation, where many of the variants increased in Roma are clinically associated with metabolic and cardiovascular-related drugs. These results suggest that clinically relevant variation in Roma cannot only be characterized in terms of founder mutations. Instead, we observe frequency differences compared to non-Roma: some variants are absent, while other have drifted to higher frequencies. As a result of the admixture events, these clinically damaging variants can be traced back to both European and South Asian-related ancestries. This can be attributed to a different prevalence of some genetic disorders or to the fact that genetic susceptibility variants are mostly studied in populations of European descent, and can differ in individuals with different ancestries.

A Polygenic Risk Score to Predict Future Adult Short Stature Among Children

CONTEXT

Adult height is highly heritable, yet no genetic predictor has demonstrated clinical utility compared to mid-parental height.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a polygenic risk score for adult height and evaluate its clinical utility.

DESIGN

A polygenic risk score was constructed based on meta-analysis of genomewide association studies and evaluated on the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort.

SUBJECTS

Participants included 442 599 genotyped White British individuals in the UK Biobank and 941 genotyped child-parent trios of European ancestry in the ALSPAC cohort.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Standing height was measured using stadiometer; Standing height 2 SDs below the sex-specific population average was considered as short stature.

RESULTS

Combined with sex, a polygenic risk score captured 71.1% of the total variance in adult height in the UK Biobank. In the ALSPAC cohort, the polygenic risk score was able to identify children who developed adulthood short stature with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.84, which is close to that of mid-parental height. Combining this polygenic risk score with mid-parental height or only one of the child's parent's height could improve the AUROC to at most 0.90. The polygenic risk score could also substitute mid-parental height in age-specific Khamis-Roche height predictors and achieve an equally strong discriminative power in identifying children with a short stature in adulthood.

CONCLUSIONS

A polygenic risk score could be considered as an alternative or adjunct to mid-parental height to improve screening for children at risk of developing short stature in adulthood in European ancestry populations.

Evaluating marginal genetic correlation of associated loci for complex diseases and traits between European and East Asian populations

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have successfully identified a large amount of single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with many complex phenotypes in diverse populations. However, a comprehensive understanding of the genetic correlation of associated loci of phenotypes across populations remains lacking and the extent to which associations discovered in one population can be generalized to other populations or can be utilized for trans-ethnic genetic prediction is also unclear. By leveraging summary statistics, we proposed MAGIC to evaluate the trans-ethnic marginal genetic correlation (r_m) of per-allele effect sizes for associated SNPs (P < 5E-8) under the framework of measurement error models. We confirmed the methodological advantage of MAGIC over general approaches through simulations and demonstrated its utility by analyzing 34 GWAS summary statistics of phenotypes from the East Asian (N_max = 254,373) and European (N_max = 1,220,901) populations. Among these phenotypes, r_m was estimated to range from 0.584 (se = 0.140) for breast cancer to 0.949 (se = 0.035) for age of menarche, with an average of 0.835 (se = 0.045). We also uncovered that the trans-ethnic genetic prediction accuracy for phenotypes in the target population would substantially become low when using associated SNPs identified in non-target populations, indicating that associations discovered in the one population cannot be simply generalized to another population and that the accuracy of trans-ethnic phenotype prediction is generally dissatisfactory. Overall, our study provides in-depth insight into trans-ethnic genetic correlation and prediction for complex phenotypes across diverse populations.

Leveraging both individual-level genetic data and GWAS summary statistics increases polygenic prediction

The accuracy of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) to predict complex diseases increases with the training sample size. PRSs are generally derived based on summary statistics from large meta-analyses of multiple genome-wide association studies (GWASs). However, it is now common for researchers to have access to large individual-level data as well, such as the UK Biobank data. To the best of our knowledge, it has not yet been explored how best to combine both types of data (summary statistics and individual-level data) to optimize polygenic prediction. The most widely used approach to combine data is the meta-analysis of GWAS summary statistics (meta-GWAS), but we show that it does not always provide the most accurate PRS. Through simulations and using 12 real case-control and quantitative traits from both iPSYCH and UK Biobank along with external GWAS summary statistics, we compare meta-GWAS with two alternative data-combining approaches, stacked clumping and thresholding (SCT) and meta-PRS. We find that, when large individual-level data are available, the linear combination of PRSs (meta-PRS) is both a simple alternative to meta-GWAS and often more accurate.

Multi-Omics Approaches to Define Calcific Aortic Valve Disease Pathogenesis

Calcific aortic valve disease sits at the confluence of multiple world-wide epidemics of aging, obesity, diabetes, and renal dysfunction, and its prevalence is expected to nearly triple over the next 3 decades. This is of particularly dire clinical relevance, as calcific aortic valve disease can progress rapidly to aortic stenosis, heart failure, and eventually premature death. Unlike in atherosclerosis, and despite the heavy clinical toll, to date, no pharmacotherapy has proven effective to halt calcific aortic valve disease progression, with invasive and costly aortic valve replacement representing the only treatment option currently available. This substantial gap in care is largely because of our still-limited understanding of both normal aortic valve biology and the key regulatory mechanisms that drive disease initiation and progression. Drug discovery is further hampered by the inherent intricacy of the valvular microenvironment: a unique anatomic structure, a complex mixture of dynamic biomechanical forces, and diverse and multipotent cell populations collectively contributing to this currently intractable problem. One promising and rapidly evolving tactic is the application of multiomics approaches to fully define disease pathogenesis. Herein, we summarize the application of (epi)genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics to the study of valvular heart disease. We also discuss recent forays toward the omics-based characterization of valvular (patho)biology at single-cell resolution; these efforts promise to shed new light on cellular heterogeneity in healthy and diseased valvular tissues and represent the potential to efficaciously target and treat key cell subpopulations. Last, we discuss systems biology- and network medicine-based strategies to extract meaning, mechanisms, and prioritized drug targets from multiomics datasets.

Polygenic risk score for alcohol drinking behavior improves prediction of inflammatory bowel disease risk

Epidemiological studies have long recognized risky behaviors as potentially modifiable factors for the onset and flares of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD); yet, the underlying mechanisms are largely unknown. Recently, the genetic susceptibilities to cigarette smoking, alcohol and cannabis use [i.e. substance use (SU)] have been characterized by well-powered genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We aimed to assess the impact of genetic determinants of SU on IBD risk. Using Mount Sinai Crohn's and Colitis Registry (MSCCR) cohort of 1058 IBD cases and 188 healthy controls, we computed the polygenic risk score (PRS) for SU and correlated them with the observed IBD diagnoses, while adjusting for genetic ancestry, PRS for IBD and SU behavior at enrollment. The results were validated in a pediatric cohort with no SU exposure. PRS of alcohol consumption (DrnkWk), smoking cessation and age of smoking initiation, were associated with IBD risk in MSCCR even after adjustment for PRSIBD and actual smoking status. One interquartile range decrease in PRSDrnkWk was significantly associated to higher IBD risk (i.e. inverse association) (with odds ratio = 1.65 and 95% confidence interval: 1.32, 2.06). The association was replicated in a pediatric Crohn's disease cohort. Colocalization analysis identified a locus on chromosome 16 with polymorphisms in IL27, SULT1A2 and SH2B1, which reached genome-wide statistical significance in GWAS (P < 7.7e-9) for both alcohol consumption and IBD risk. This study demonstrated that the genetic predisposition to SU was associated with IBD risk, independent of PRSIBD and in the absence of SU behaviors. Our study may help further stratify individuals at risk of IBD.

Genetic discovery and risk characterization in type 2 diabetes across diverse populations

Genomic discovery and characterization of risk loci for type 2 diabetes (T2D) have been conducted primarily in individuals of European ancestry. We conducted a multiethnic genome-wide association study of T2D among 53,102 cases and 193,679 control subjects from African, Hispanic, Asian, Native Hawaiian, and European population groups in the Population Architecture Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) and Diabetes Genetics Replication and Meta-analysis (DIAGRAM) Consortia. In individuals of African ancestry, we discovered a risk variant in the TGFB1 gene (rs11466334, risk allele frequency (RAF) = 6.8%, odds ratio [OR] = 1.27, p = 2.06 × 10⁻⁸), which replicated in independent studies of African ancestry (p = 6.26 × 10⁻²³). We identified a multiethnic risk variant in the BACE2 gene (rs13052926, RAF = 14.1%, OR = 1.08, p = 5.75 × 10⁻⁹), which also replicated in independent studies (p = 3.45 × 10⁻⁴). We also observed a significant difference in the performance of a multiethnic genetic risk score (GRS) across population groups (p_{heterogeneity} = 3.85 × 10⁻²⁰). Comparing individuals in the top GRS risk category (40%–60%), the OR was highest in Asians (OR = 3.08) and European (OR = 2.94) ancestry populations, followed by Hispanic (OR = 2.39), Native Hawaiian (OR = 2.02), and African ancestry (OR = 1.57) populations. These findings underscore the importance of genetic discovery and risk characterization in diverse populations and the urgent need to further increase representation of non-European ancestry individuals in genetics research to improve genetic-based risk prediction across populations.

Genomics of hypertension: the road to precision medicine

The known genetic architecture of blood pressure now comprises >30 genes, with rare variants resulting in monogenic forms of hypertension or hypotension and >1,477 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) being associated with the blood pressure phenotype. Monogenic blood pressure syndromes predominantly involve the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system and the adrenal glucocorticoid pathway, with a smaller fraction caused by neuroendocrine tumours of the sympathetic and parasympathetic nervous systems. The SNPs identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) as being associated with the blood pressure phenotype explain only approximately 27% of the 30-50% estimated heritability of blood pressure, and the effect of each SNP on the blood pressure phenotype is small. A paucity of SNPs from GWAS are mapped to known genes causing monogenic blood pressure syndromes. For example, a GWAS signal mapped to the gene encoding uromodulin has been shown to affect blood pressure by influencing sodium homeostasis, and the effects of another GWAS signal were mediated by endothelin. However, the majority of blood pressure-associated SNPs show pleiotropic associations. Unravelling these associations can potentially help us to understand the underlying biological pathways. In this Review, we appraise the current knowledge of blood pressure genomics, explore the causal pathways for hypertension identified in Mendelian randomization studies and highlight the opportunities for drug repurposing and pharmacogenomics for the treatment of hypertension.

Common and Rare Variant Prediction and Penetrance of IBD in a Large, Multi-ethnic, Health System-based Biobank Cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) may soon be used to predict inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) risk in prevention efforts. We leveraged exome-sequence and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array data from 29,358 individuals in the multiethnic, randomly ascertained health system-based BioMe biobank to define effects of common and rare IBD variants on disease prediction and pathophysiology.

METHODS

PRS were calculated from European, African American, and Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) reference case-control studies, and a meta-GWAS run using all three association datasets. PRS were then combined using regression to assess which combination of scores best predicted IBD status in European, AJ, Hispanic, and African American cohorts in BioMe. Additionally, rare variants were assessed in genes associated with very early-onset IBD (VEO-IBD), by estimating genetic penetrance in each BioMe population.

RESULTS

Combining risk scores based on association data from distinct ancestral populations improved IBD prediction for every population in BioMe and significantly improved prediction among European ancestry UK Biobank individuals. Lower predictive power for non-Europeans was observed, reflecting in part substantially lower African IBD case-control reference sizes. We replicated associations for two VEO-IBD genes, ADAM17 and LRBA, with high dominant model penetrance in BioMe. Autosomal recessive LRBA risk alleles are associated with severe, early-onset autoimmunity; we show that heterozygous carriage of an African-predominant LRBA protein-altering allele is associated with significantly decreased LRBA and CTLA-4 expression with T-cell activation.

CONCLUSIONS

Greater genetic diversity in African populations improves prediction across populations, and generalizes some VEO-IBD genes. Increasing African American IBD case-collections should be prioritized to reduce health disparities and enhance pathophysiological insight.

On polygenic risk scores for complex traits prediction

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have gained substantial attention for complex traits prediction in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Motivated by the polygenic model of complex traits, we study the statistical properties of PRS under the high-dimensional but sparsity free setting where the triplet ( n , p , m ) → ( ∞ , ∞ , ∞ ) with n , p , m being the sample size, the number of assayed single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and the number of assayed causal SNPs, respectively. First, we derive asymptotic results on the out-of-sample (prediction) R-squared for PRS. These results help understand the widespread observed gap between the in-sample heritability (or partial R-squared due to the genetic features) estimate and the out-of-sample R-squared for most complex traits. Next, we investigate how features should be selected (e.g., by a p-value threshold) for constructing optimal PRS. We reveal that the optimal threshold depends largely on the genetic architecture underlying the complex trait and the sample size of the training GWAS, or the m / n ratio. For highly polygenic traits with a large m / n ratio, it is difficult to separate causal and null SNPs and stringent feature selection in principle often leads to poor PRS prediction. We numerically illustrate the theoretical results with intensive simulation studies and real data analysis on 33 complex traits with a wide range of genetic architectures in the UK Biobank database.

Whole-genome sequencing of African Americans implicates differential genetic architecture in inflammatory bowel disease

Whether or not populations diverge with respect to the genetic contribution to risk of specific complex diseases is relevant to understanding the evolution of susceptibility and origins of health disparities. Here, we describe a large-scale whole-genome sequencing study of inflammatory bowel disease encompassing 1,774 affected individuals and 1,644 healthy control Americans with African ancestry (African Americans). Although no new loci for inflammatory bowel disease are discovered at genome-wide significance levels, we identify numerous instances of differential effect sizes in combination with divergent allele frequencies. For example, the major effect at PTGER4 fine maps to a single credible interval of 22 SNPs corresponding to one of four independent associations at the locus in European ancestry individuals but with an elevated odds ratio for Crohn disease in African Americans. A rare variant aggregate analysis implicates Ca²⁺-binding neuro-immunomodulator CALB2 in ulcerative colitis. Highly significant overall overlap of common variant risk for inflammatory bowel disease susceptibility between individuals with African and European ancestries was observed, with 41 of 241 previously known lead variants replicated and overall correlations in effect sizes of 0.68 for combined inflammatory bowel disease. Nevertheless, subtle differences influence the performance of polygenic risk scores, and we show that ancestry-appropriate weights significantly improve polygenic prediction in the highest percentiles of risk. The median amount of variance explained per locus remains the same in African and European cohorts, providing evidence for compensation of effect sizes as allele frequencies diverge, as expected under a highly polygenic model of disease.

Population-specific causal disease effect sizes in functionally important regions impacted by selection

Many diseases exhibit population-specific causal effect sizes with trans-ethnic genetic correlations significantly less than 1, limiting trans-ethnic polygenic risk prediction. We develop a new method, S-LDXR, for stratifying squared trans-ethnic genetic correlation across genomic annotations, and apply S-LDXR to genome-wide summary statistics for 31 diseases and complex traits in East Asians (average N = 90K) and Europeans (average N = 267K) with an average trans-ethnic genetic correlation of 0.85. We determine that squared trans-ethnic genetic correlation is 0.82× (s.e. 0.01) depleted in the top quintile of background selection statistic, implying more population-specific causal effect sizes. Accordingly, causal effect sizes are more population-specific in functionally important regions, including conserved and regulatory regions. In regions surrounding specifically expressed genes, causal effect sizes are most population-specific for skin and immune genes, and least population-specific for brain genes. Our results could potentially be explained by stronger gene-environment interaction at loci impacted by selection, particularly positive selection.

Serum Urate Polygenic Risk Score Can Improve Gout Risk Prediction: A Large-Scale Cohort Study

Gout is a painful inflammatory arthritis affecting more than 8 million Americans. Identifying high-risk patients in early life could potentially encourage people to adopt lifestyle changes to prevent gout. Polygenic risk score (PRS) provides an overall estimate of an individual's genetic liability to develop a disease and can be used for early identification of high-risk individuals. In this study, we validated a previously reported PRS in an independent cohort. The urate-PRS was constructed from 110 significant urate-associated variants identified in Europeans. Phenome-wide and PRS-wide association study showed the urate-PRS is highly specifically associated with gout (phecode: 274.10; beta = 1.495 [1.372, 1.619], p = 4.37e-124). Urate-PRS alone did not performed in the gout prediction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUROC = 0.640); however, the addition of PRS upon demographics significantly improved the model performance, yielding an AUROC of 0.804 from 0.777 (DeLong test p = 3.66e−9). Trans-ethnic PRS and European-specific PRS showed similar prediction performance. We observed increasing gout prevalence and odds ratio (OR) across the PRS quintiles. Our study showed 8.2% of the cohort had more than 2.5 odds for gout than remainders, indicating that urate-PRS may be a better marker than age and sex to stratify patient risk. With the rapid growth of large biorepositories, such as All of Us, urate-PRS can be applied quickly and widely in population to estimate individual's risk, providing a powerful tool for gout preventive purpose in population health.

Cannabis use in college: Genetic predispositions, peers, and activity participation

BACKGROUND

Among adult college students in the US, cannabis use is common and associated with considerable negative consequences to health, cognition, and academic functioning, underscoring the importance of identifying risk and protective factors. Cannabis use is influenced by genetic factors, but genetic risk is not determinative. Accordingly, it is critical to identify environments that reduce risk among those who are at elevated genetic risk. This study examined the impact of polygenic scores for cannabis initiation, various forms of social activity participation, and peer deviance on recent cannabis use. Our aim was to test whether these environments moderate genetic risk for cannabis use.

METHODS

Data came from a longitudinal sample of undergraduate college students of European American (EA; NEA = 750) and African American (AA; NAA = 405) ancestry. Generalized estimating equations with a logit link function were used to examine main effects and two-way interactions.

RESULTS

Engagement with church activities was associated with lower probability of cannabis use. Peer deviance was associated with higher probability of cannabis use. Engagement with community activities moderated the influence of the polygenic risk score in the EA sample, such that PRS was associated with recent cannabis use among those who never engaged in community activities. This effect did not replicate in AAs, which may have been due to the portability of PRS based on EA discovery samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that community activities may limit the influence of genetic risk, as associations between PRS and cannabis use were only observed among individuals who never engaged in community activities.

The influence of evolutionary history on human health and disease

Nearly all genetic variants that influence disease risk have human-specific origins; however, the systems they influence have ancient roots that often trace back to evolutionary events long before the origin of humans. Here, we review how advances in our understanding of the genetic architectures of diseases, recent human evolution and deep evolutionary history can help explain how and why humans in modern environments become ill. Human populations exhibit differences in the prevalence of many common and rare genetic diseases. These differences are largely the result of the diverse environmental, cultural, demographic and genetic histories of modern human populations. Synthesizing our growing knowledge of evolutionary history with genetic medicine, while accounting for environmental and social factors, will help to achieve the promise of personalized genomics and realize the potential hidden in an individual's DNA sequence to guide clinical decisions. In short, precision medicine is fundamentally evolutionary medicine, and integration of evolutionary perspectives into the clinic will support the realization of its full potential.

Genotype-environment correlation by intervention effects underlying middle childhood peer rejection and associations with adolescent marijuana use

Aggressive behavior in middle childhood can contribute to peer rejection, subsequently increasing risk for substance use in adolescence. However, the quality of peer relationships a child experiences can be associated with his or her genetic predisposition, a genotype-environment correlation (rGE). In addition, recent evidence indicates that psychosocial preventive interventions can buffer genetic predispositions for negative behavior. The current study examined associations between polygenic risk for aggression, aggressive behavior, and peer rejection from 8.5 to 10.5 years, and the subsequent influence of peer rejection on marijuana use in adolescence (n = 515; 256 control, 259 intervention). Associations were examined separately in control and intervention groups for children of families who participated in a randomized controlled trial of the family-based preventive intervention, the Family Check-Up . Using time-varying effect modeling (TVEM), polygenic risk for aggression was associated with peer rejection from approximately age 8.50 to 9.50 in the control group but no associations were present in the intervention group. Subsequent analyses showed peer rejection mediated the association between polygenic risk for aggression and adolescent marijuana use in the control group. The role of rGEs in middle childhood peer processes and implications for preventive intervention programs for adolescent substance use are discussed.

Inclusion of variants discovered from diverse populations improves polygenic risk score transferability

The majority of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been developed and optimized in individuals of European ancestry and may have limited generalizability across other ancestral populations. Understanding aspects of PRSs that contribute to this issue and determining solutions is complicated by disease-specific genetic architecture and limited knowledge of sharing of causal variants and effect sizes across populations. Motivated by these challenges, we undertook a simulation study to assess the relationship between ancestry and the potential bias in PRSs developed in European ancestry populations. Our simulations show that the magnitude of this bias increases with increasing divergence from European ancestry, and this is attributed to population differences in linkage disequilibrium and allele frequencies of European-discovered variants, likely as a result of genetic drift. Importantly, we find that including into the PRS variants discovered in African ancestry individuals has the potential to achieve unbiased estimates of genetic risk across global populations and admixed individuals. We confirm our simulation findings in an analysis of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), asthma, and prostate cancer in the UK Biobank. Given the demonstrated improvement in PRS prediction accuracy, recruiting larger diverse cohorts will be crucial—and potentially even necessary—for enabling accurate and equitable genetic risk prediction across populations.

Improving the trans-ancestry portability of polygenic risk scores by prioritizing variants in predicted cell-type-specific regulatory elements

Poor trans-ancestry portability of polygenic risk scores is a consequence of Eurocentric genetic studies and limited knowledge of shared causal variants. Leveraging regulatory annotations may improve portability by prioritizing functional over tagging variants. We constructed a resource of 707 cell-type-specific IMPACT regulatory annotations by aggregating 5,345 epigenetic datasets to predict binding patterns of 142 transcription factors across 245 cell types. We then partitioned the common SNP heritability of 111 genome-wide association study summary statistics of European (average n ≈ 189,000) and East Asian (average n ≈ 157,000) origin. IMPACT annotations captured consistent SNP heritability between populations, suggesting prioritization of shared functional variants. Variant prioritization using IMPACT resulted in increased trans-ancestry portability of polygenic risk scores from Europeans to East Asians across all 21 phenotypes analyzed (49.9% mean relative increase in R2). Our study identifies a crucial role for functional annotations such as IMPACT to improve the trans-ancestry portability of genetic data.

Functionally informed fine-mapping and polygenic localization of complex trait heritability

Fine-mapping aims to identify causal variants impacting complex traits. We propose PolyFun, a computationally scalable framework to improve fine-mapping accuracy by leveraging functional annotations across the entire genome-not just genome-wide-significant loci-to specify prior probabilities for fine-mapping methods such as SuSiE or FINEMAP. In simulations, PolyFun + SuSiE and PolyFun + FINEMAP were well calibrated and identified >20% more variants with a posterior causal probability >0.95 than identified in their nonfunctionally informed counterparts. In analyses of 49 UK Biobank traits (average n = 318,000), PolyFun + SuSiE identified 3,025 fine-mapped variant-trait pairs with posterior causal probability >0.95, a >32% improvement versus SuSiE. We used posterior mean per-SNP heritabilities from PolyFun + SuSiE to perform polygenic localization, constructing minimal sets of common SNPs causally explaining 50% of common SNP heritability; these sets ranged in size from 28 (hair color) to 3,400 (height) to 2 million (number of children). In conclusion, PolyFun prioritizes variants for functional follow-up and provides insights into complex trait architectures.