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Sun Y, Wang X, Zhu J, Chen L, Jia Y, Lawrence JM, Jiang LH, Xie X, Wu J. Using machine learning to examine street green space types at a high spatial resolution: Application in Los Angeles County on socioeconomic disparities in exposure. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 755:142734. [PMID: 36118158 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142734] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2020] [Revised: 09/21/2020] [Accepted: 09/23/2020] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Compared to commonly-used green space indicators from downward-facing satellite imagery, street view-based green space may capture different types of green space and represent how environments are perceived and experienced by people on the ground, which is important to elucidate the underlying mechanisms linking green space and health. OBJECTIVES This study aimed to evaluate machine learning models that can classify the type of vegetation (i.e., tree, low-lying vegetation, grass) from street view images; and to investigate the associations between street green space and socioeconomic (SES) factors, in Los Angeles County, California. METHODS SES variables were obtained from the CalEnviroScreen3.0 dataset. Microsoft Bing Maps images in conjunction with deep learning were used to measure total and types of street view green space, which were compared to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as commonly-used satellite-based green space measure. Generalized linear mixed model was used to examine associations between green space and census tract SES, adjusting for population density and rural/urban status. RESULTS The accuracy of the deep learning model was high with 92.5% mean intersection over union. NDVI were moderately correlated with total street view-based green space and tree, and weakly correlated with low-lying vegetation and grass. Total and three types of green space showed significant negative associations with neighborhood SES. The percentage of total green space decreased by 2.62 [95% confidence interval (CI): -3.02, -2.21, p < 0.001] with each interquartile range increase in CalEnviroScreen3.0 score. Disadvantaged communities contained approximately 5% less average street green space than other communities. CONCLUSION Street view imagery coupled with deep learning approach can accurately and efficiently measure eye-level street green space and distinguish vegetation types. In Los Angeles County, disadvantaged communities had substantively less street green space. Governments and urban planners need to consider the type and visibility of street green space from pedestrian's perspective.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi Sun
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Xingzhi Wang
- School of Computer Science, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Jiayin Zhu
- School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Liangjian Chen
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Yuhang Jia
- Testin AI Data, Beijing Yunce Information Technology Co., Ltd, China
| | - Jean M Lawrence
- Department of Research & Evaluation, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Luo-Hua Jiang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Xiaohui Xie
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Jun Wu
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
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Tourism Effect on the Spatiotemporal Pattern of Land Surface Temperature (LST): Babolsar and Fereydonkenar Cities (Cases Study in Iran). LAND 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/land10090945] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of tourism on Land Surface Temperature (LST), an issue which has rarely been considered in the tourism development literature. In this research, remote sensing techniques have been used to analyze the changes in the LST and spectral indices including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) and Enhanced Built-Up and Bareness Index (EBBI). The data used were based on Landsat Collection 1 Surface Reflectance (SR) images taken in June and August. They were analyzed over 32 years in the years 1987, 1993, 1999, 2009, 2014 and 2019. The study area included the cities of Babolsar and Fereydonkenar and their suburbs in Mazandaran Province in the north of Iran and south of the Caspian Sea. First the tourism zones were separated from other land use zones and then the changes in land use and LST in each of the zones were studied for each year based on the trend of 32-year change. The results of Pearson correlation in the whole area for each main land use zone showed that there was a significant inverse relationship between the LST and the NDVI and MNDWI indices. This relationship was direct and significant for the EBBI index. Moreover, the results of one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey test showed that the LST changes in the tourism zones during the study period were significantly different from the other zones, so that the tourism zones always experienced lower LST. The findings also showed that, in the tourism zones, the values of the NDVI and MNDWI indices showed an increasing trend compared to the urban zone. Therefore, increasing the values of these indices due to the development of green space and its regular irrigation in tourism zones has led to a significant decrease in the LST. The applied results of this research in the urban planning and tourism literature indicate that any model of physical development such as urban development does not necessarily lead to an increase in the LST, and this is entirely dependent on the physical design strategies.
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103
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Human population induced urban developments and their effects on temperature rise: a nonlinear mathematical model. ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100947] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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104
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Liu J, Varghese BM, Hansen A, Xiang J, Zhang Y, Dear K, Gourley M, Driscoll T, Morgan G, Capon A, Bi P. Is there an association between hot weather and poor mental health outcomes? A systematic review and meta-analysis. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2021; 153:106533. [PMID: 33799230 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106533] [Citation(s) in RCA: 102] [Impact Index Per Article: 34.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2020] [Revised: 03/12/2021] [Accepted: 03/16/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mental health is an important public health issue globally. A potential link between heat exposure and mental health outcomes has been recognised in the scientific literature; however, the associations between heat exposure (both high ambient temperatures and heatwaves) and mental health-related mortality and morbidity vary between studies and locations. OBJECTIVE To fill gaps in knowledge, this systematic review aims to summarize the epidemiological evidence and investigate the quantitative effects of high ambient temperatures and heatwaves on mental health-related mortality and morbidity outcomes, while exploring sources of heterogeneity. METHODS A systematic search of peer-reviewed epidemiological studies on heat exposure and mental health outcomes published between January 1990 and November 2020 was conducted using five databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science and PsycINFO). We included studies that examined the association between high ambient temperatures and/or heatwaves and mental health-related mortality and morbidity (e.g. hospital admissions and emergency department visits) in the general population. A range of mental health conditions were defined using ICD-10 classifications. We performed random effects meta-analysis to summarize the relative risks (RRs) in mental health outcomes per 1 °C increase in temperature, and under different heatwaves definitions. We further evaluated whether variables such as age, sex, socioeconomic status, and climate zone may explain the observed heterogeneity. RESULTS The keyword search yielded 4560 citations from which we identified 53 high temperatures/heatwaves studies that comprised over 1.7 million mental health-related mortality and 1.9 million morbidity cases in total. Our findings suggest associations between heat exposures and a range of mental health-related outcomes. Regarding high temperatures, our meta-analysis of study findings showed that for each 1 °C increase in temperature, the mental health-related mortality and morbidity increased with a RR of 1.022 (95%CI: 1.015-1.029) and 1.009 (95%CI: 1.007-1.015), respectively. The greatest mortality risk was attributed to substance-related mental disorders (RR, 1.046; 95%CI: 0.991-1.101), followed by organic mental disorders (RR, 1.033; 95%CI: 1.020-1.046). A 1 °C temperature rise was also associated with a significant increase in morbidity such as mood disorders, organic mental disorders, schizophrenia, neurotic and anxiety disorders. Findings suggest evidence of vulnerability for populations living in tropical and subtropical climate zones, and for people aged more than 65 years. There were significant moderate and high heterogeneities between effect estimates in overall mortality and morbidity categories, respectively. Lower heterogeneity was noted in some subgroups. The magnitude of the effect estimates for heatwaves varied depending on definitions used. The highest effect estimates for mental health-related morbidity was observed when heatwaves were defined as "mean temperature ≥90th percentile for ≥3 days" (RR, 1.753; 95%CI: 0.567-5.421), and a significant effect was also observed when the definition was "mean temperature ≥95th percentile for ≥3 days", with a RR of 1.064 (95%CI: 1.006-1.123). CONCLUSIONS Our findings support the hypothesis of a positive association between elevated ambient temperatures and/or heatwaves and adverse mental health outcomes. This problem will likely increase with a warming climate, especially in the context of climate change. Further high-quality studies are needed to identify modifying factors of heat impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingwen Liu
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Australia
| | | | - Alana Hansen
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Australia
| | - Jianjun Xiang
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Australia; School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, China
| | - Ying Zhang
- Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Australia
| | - Keith Dear
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Australia
| | - Michelle Gourley
- Burden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Australia
| | - Timothy Driscoll
- Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Australia
| | - Geoffrey Morgan
- Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Australia
| | - Anthony Capon
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Australia
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Australia.
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Wei Y, Tiwari AS, Li L, Solanki B, Sarkar J, Mavalankar D, Schwartz J. Assessing mortality risk attributable to high ambient temperatures in Ahmedabad, 1987 to 2017. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 198:111232. [PMID: 33965390 PMCID: PMC8169607 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111232] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2020] [Revised: 02/07/2021] [Accepted: 04/23/2021] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Studies on high temperatures and mortality have not focused on underdeveloped tropical regions and have reported the associations of different temperature metrics without conducting model selection. METHODS We collected daily mortality and meteorological data including ambient temperatures and humidity in Ahmedabad during summer, 1987-2017. We proposed two cross-validation (CV) approaches to compare semiparametric quasi-Poisson models with different temperature metrics and heat wave definitions. Using the fittest model, we estimated heat-mortality associations among general population and subpopulations. We also conducted separate analyses for 1987-2002 and 2003-2017 to evaluate temporal heterogeneity. FINDINGS The model with maximum and minimum temperatures and without heat wave indicator gave the best performance. With this model, we found a substantial and significant increase in mortality rate starting from maximum temperature at 42 °C and from minimum temperature at 28 °C: 1 °C increase in maximum and minimum temperatures at lag 0 were associated with 9.56% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.64%, 12.56%) and 9.82% (95% CI: 6.33%, 13.42%) increase in mortality risk, respectively. People aged ≥65 years and lived in South residential zone where most slums were located, were more vulnerable. We observed flatter increases in mortality risk associated with high temperatures comparing the period of 2003-2017 to 1987-2002. INTERPRETATION The analyses provided better understanding of the relationship of high temperatures with mortality in underdeveloped tropical regions and important implications in developing heat warning system for local government. The proposed CV approaches will benefit future scientific work.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yaguang Wei
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
| | - Abhiyant Suresh Tiwari
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Longxiang Li
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Bhavin Solanki
- Health Department, Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India
| | - Jayanta Sarkar
- India Meteorological Department, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India
| | - Dileep Mavalankar
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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106
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Rocque RJ, Beaudoin C, Ndjaboue R, Cameron L, Poirier-Bergeron L, Poulin-Rheault RA, Fallon C, Tricco AC, Witteman HO. Health effects of climate change: an overview of systematic reviews. BMJ Open 2021; 11:e046333. [PMID: 34108165 PMCID: PMC8191619 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 323] [Impact Index Per Article: 107.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We aimed to develop a systematic synthesis of systematic reviews of health impacts of climate change, by synthesising studies' characteristics, climate impacts, health outcomes and key findings. DESIGN We conducted an overview of systematic reviews of health impacts of climate change. We registered our review in PROSPERO (CRD42019145972). No ethical approval was required since we used secondary data. Additional data are not available. DATA SOURCES On 22 June 2019, we searched Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Embase, Cochrane and Web of Science. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA We included systematic reviews that explored at least one health impact of climate change. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS We organised systematic reviews according to their key characteristics, including geographical regions, year of publication and authors' affiliations. We mapped the climate effects and health outcomes being studied and synthesised major findings. We used a modified version of A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews-2 (AMSTAR-2) to assess the quality of studies. RESULTS We included 94 systematic reviews. Most were published after 2015 and approximately one-fifth contained meta-analyses. Reviews synthesised evidence about five categories of climate impacts; the two most common were meteorological and extreme weather events. Reviews covered 10 health outcome categories; the 3 most common were (1) infectious diseases, (2) mortality and (3) respiratory, cardiovascular or neurological outcomes. Most reviews suggested a deleterious impact of climate change on multiple adverse health outcomes, although the majority also called for more research. CONCLUSIONS Most systematic reviews suggest that climate change is associated with worse human health. This study provides a comprehensive higher order summary of research on health impacts of climate change. Study limitations include possible missed relevant reviews, no meta-meta-analyses, and no assessment of overlap. Future research could explore the potential explanations between these associations to propose adaptation and mitigation strategies and could include broader sociopsychological health impacts of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rhea J Rocque
- Prairie Climate Centre, The University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | | | - Ruth Ndjaboue
- Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Quebec, QC, Canada
- VITAM Research Centre for Sustainable Health, Quebec, QC, Canada
| | - Laura Cameron
- Prairie Climate Centre, The University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | | | | | - Catherine Fallon
- Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Quebec, QC, Canada
- CHUQ Research Centre, Quebec, QC, Canada
| | - Andrea C Tricco
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Holly O Witteman
- Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Quebec, QC, Canada
- VITAM Research Centre for Sustainable Health, Quebec, QC, Canada
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107
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Asseng S, Spänkuch D, Hernandez-Ochoa IM, Laporta J. The upper temperature thresholds of life. Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5:e378-e385. [PMID: 34119012 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00079-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2019] [Revised: 03/21/2021] [Accepted: 03/25/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Temperature affects many life processes, but its effect might be expected to differ among eukaryotic organisms inhabiting similar environments. We reviewed literature on temperature thresholds of humans, livestock, poultry, agricultural crops, and sparse examples of fisheries. We found that preferable and harmful temperatures are similar for humans, cattle, pigs, poultry, fish, and agricultural crops. Preferable temperatures range from 17°C to 24°C. Stress temperature thresholds are lower when humidity is higher. However, extended exposure to temperatures above 25°C with high humidity can cause heat stress in many organisms. Short exposures to temperatures above 35°C with high humidity, or above 40°C with low humidity, can be lethal. Increases in exposure, frequency, and duration of stressful and lethal temperatures increase the physiological stress and bodily damage suffered by humans, livestock, poultry, fish, and agricultural crops.
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Affiliation(s)
- Senthold Asseng
- Department of Life Science Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany.
| | | | - Ixchel M Hernandez-Ochoa
- Crop Science Group, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Jimena Laporta
- Department of Animal and Dairy Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
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108
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Chen B, Xie M, Feng Q, Li Z, Chu L, Liu Q. Heat risk of residents in different types of communities from urban heat-exposed areas. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 768:145052. [PMID: 33736338 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2020] [Revised: 01/04/2021] [Accepted: 01/04/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Heat risk assessment is important due to serious health problems caused by heat waves. The complexity and diversity of socio-ecological characteristics in urban areas that lead to heat risk are more serious in heat-exposed areas, while risk assessments and determinant based on individuals in heat-exposed areas have been neglected in previous studies. This study pursues a new idea of combining questionnaire surveys and remote sensing analysis to identify urban heat-exposed areas and assess heat risk in heat-exposed areas of Beijing, China. Morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) was used to identify large and continuous hotspot regions as urban heat-exposed areas based on summer surface temperature from 2011 to 2017. A total of 1484 valid questionnaires were completed by residents of heat-exposed areas. The majority of respondents (96.4%) indicated that they perceived heat risk. Moreover, the residents without a local "hukou" were a potentially vulnerable group (note: hukou refers to the population registration management system.). This study further analysed the diversity of community types within the heat-exposed areas. There were significant differences in heat risk among the different community types of multi-story residential districts, Hutong (a traditional architectural form) residential districts and city villages. In particular, the degree of heat risk perceived by residents living in these the community types was determined by whether they had pre-existing medical conditions; however, age only played a decisive role in city villages. This study not only enriches the current understanding of health risks affected by heat waves but also explores the determinants contributing to the severity of heat risk. The output provides important information for future development of heat mitigation and adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bin Chen
- School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Miaomiao Xie
- School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China.
| | - Qianqian Feng
- School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Zhaoyang Li
- School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Lixia Chu
- Interfaculty Department of Geoinformatics - Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, 5020 Salzburg, Austria
| | - Qi Liu
- School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
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Workman A, Jones PJ, Wheeler AJ, Campbell SL, Williamson GJ, Lucani C, Bowman DM, Cooling N, Johnston FH. Environmental Hazards and Behavior Change: User Perspectives on the Usability and Effectiveness of the AirRater Smartphone App. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18073591. [PMID: 33808395 PMCID: PMC8036707 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18073591] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2021] [Revised: 03/25/2021] [Accepted: 03/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
AirRater is a free smartphone app developed in 2015, supporting individuals to protect their health from environmental hazards. It does this by providing (i) location-specific and near real-time air quality, pollen and temperature information and (ii) personal symptom tracking functionality. This research sought to evaluate user perceptions of AirRater's usability and effectiveness. We collected demographic data and completed semi-structured interviews with 42 AirRater users, identified emergent themes, and used two frameworks designed to understand and support behavior change-the Behavior Change Wheel (BCW) and the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM)-to interpret results. Of the 42 participants, almost half indicated that experiencing symptoms acted as a prompt for app use. Information provided by the app supported a majority of the 42 participants to make decisions and implement behaviors to protect their health irrespective of their location or context. The majority of participants also indicated that they shared information provided by the app with family, friends and/or colleagues. The evaluation also identified opportunities to improve the app. Several study limitations were identified, which impacts the generalizability of results beyond the populations studied. Despite these limitations, findings facilitated new insights into motivations for behavior change, and contribute to the existing literature investigating the potential for smartphone apps to support health protection from environmental hazards in a changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annabelle Workman
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, Australia; (A.W.); (P.J.J.); (A.J.W.); (S.L.C.)
| | - Penelope J. Jones
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, Australia; (A.W.); (P.J.J.); (A.J.W.); (S.L.C.)
| | - Amanda J. Wheeler
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, Australia; (A.W.); (P.J.J.); (A.J.W.); (S.L.C.)
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne 3065, Australia
| | - Sharon L. Campbell
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, Australia; (A.W.); (P.J.J.); (A.J.W.); (S.L.C.)
- Public Health Services, Department of Health, Hobart 7000, Australia
| | - Grant J. Williamson
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, Australia; (G.J.W.); (C.L.); (D.M.J.S.B.)
| | - Chris Lucani
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, Australia; (G.J.W.); (C.L.); (D.M.J.S.B.)
| | - David M.J.S. Bowman
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, Australia; (G.J.W.); (C.L.); (D.M.J.S.B.)
| | - Nick Cooling
- School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, Australia;
| | - Fay H. Johnston
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, Australia; (A.W.); (P.J.J.); (A.J.W.); (S.L.C.)
- Public Health Services, Department of Health, Hobart 7000, Australia
- Correspondence:
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Fatima SH, Rothmore P, Giles LC, Varghese BM, Bi P. Extreme heat and occupational injuries in different climate zones: A systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological evidence. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2021; 148:106384. [PMID: 33472088 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106384] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2020] [Revised: 12/09/2020] [Accepted: 01/05/2021] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The link between heat exposure and adverse health outcomes in workers is well documented and a growing body of epidemiological evidence from various countries suggests that extreme heat may also contribute to increased risk of occupational injuries (OI). Previously, there have been no comparative reviews assessing the risk of OI due to extreme heat within a wide range of global climate zones. The present review therefore aims to summarise the existing epidemiological evidence on the impact of extreme heat (hot temperatures and heatwaves (HW)) on OI in different climate zones and to assess the individual risk factors associated with workers and workplace that contribute to heat-associated OI risks. METHODS A systematic review of published peer-reviewed articles that assessed the effects of extreme heat on OI among non-military workers was undertaken using three databases (PubMed, Embase and Scopus) without temporal or geographical limits from database inception until July 2020. Extreme heat exposure was assessed in terms of hot temperatures and HW periods. For hot temperatures, the effect estimates were converted to relative risks (RR) associated with 1 °C increase in temperature above reference values, while for HW, effect estimates were RR comparing heatwave with non-heatwave periods. The patterns of heat associated OI risk were investigated in different climate zones (according to Köppen Geiger classification) based on the study locations and were estimated using random-effects meta-analysis models. Subgroup analyses according to workers' characteristics (e.g. gender, age group, experience), nature of work (e.g. physical demands, location of work i.e. indoor/outdoor) and workplace characteristics (e.g. industries, business size) were also conducted. RESULTS A total of 24 studies published between 2005 and 2020 were included in the review. Among these, 22 studies met the eligibility criteria, representing almost 22 million OI across six countries (Australia, Canada, China, Italy, Spain, and USA) and were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled results suggested that the overall risk of OI increased by 1% (RR 1.010, 95% CI: 1.009-1.011) for 1 °C increase in temperature above reference values and 17.4% (RR 1.174, 95% CI: 1.057-1.291) during HW. Among different climate zones, the highest risk of OI during hot temperatures was identified in Humid Subtropical Climates (RR 1.017, 95% CI: 1.014-1.020) followed by Oceanic (RR 1.010, 95% CI: 1.008-1.012) and Hot Mediterranean Climates (RR 1.009, 95% CI: 1.008-1.011). Similarly, Oceanic (RR 1.218, 95% CI: 1.093-1.343) and Humid Subtropical Climates (RR 1.213, 95% CI: 0.995-1.431) had the highest risk of OI during HW periods. No studies assessing the risk of OI in Tropical regions were found. The effects of hot temperatures on the risk of OI were acute with a lag effect of 1-2 days in all climate zones. Young workers (age < 35 years), male workers and workers in agriculture, forestry or fishing, construction and manufacturing industries were at high risk of OI during hot temperatures. Further young workers (age < 35 years), male workers and those working in electricity, gas and water and manufacturing industries were found to be at high risk of OI during HW. CONCLUSIONS This review strengthens the evidence on the risk of heat-associated OI in different climate zones. The risk of OI associated with extreme heat is not evenly distributed and is dependent on underlying climatic conditions, workers' attributes, the nature of work and workplace characteristics. The differences in the risk of OI across different climate zones and worker subgroups warrant further investigation along with the development of climate and work-specific intervention strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Paul Rothmore
- School of Allied Health Science and Practice, The University of Adelaide, Australia
| | - Lynne C Giles
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Australia
| | | | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Australia.
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Analysis on Effectiveness of Impact Based Heatwave Warning Considering Severity and Likelihood of Health Impacts in Seoul, Korea. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18052380. [PMID: 33804431 PMCID: PMC7975323 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18052380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2021] [Revised: 02/22/2021] [Accepted: 02/24/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
Many countries are operating a heatwave warning system (HWWS) to mitigate the impact of heatwaves on human health. The level of heatwave warning is normally determined by using the threshold temperature of heat-related morbidity or mortality. However, morbidity and mortality threshold temperatures have not been used together to account for the severity of health impacts. In this study, we developed a heatwave warning system with two different warning levels: Level-1 and Level-2, by analyzing the severity and likelihood of heat-related morbidity and mortality using the generalized additive model. The study particularly focuses on the cases in Seoul, South Korea, between 2011 and 2018. The study found that the threshold temperature for heat-related morbidity and mortality are 30 °C and 33 °C, respectively. Approximately 73.1% of heat-related patients visited hospitals when temperature was between 30 °C and 33 °C. We validated the developed HWWS by using both the threshold temperatures of morbidity and mortality. The area under curves (AUCs) of the proposed model were 0.74 and 0.86 at Level-1 and Level-2, respectively. On the other hand, the AUCs of the model using only the mortality threshold were 0.60 and 0.86 at Level-1 and Level-2, respectively. The AUCs of the model using only the morbidity threshold were 0.73 and 0.78 at Level-1 and Level-2, respectively. The results suggest that the updated HWWS can help to reduce the impact of heatwaves, particularly on vulnerable groups, by providing the customized information. This also indicates that the HWWS could effectively mitigate the risk of morbidity and mortality.
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112
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Li L, Jiang C, Murtugudde R, Liang XZ, Sapkota A. Global Population Exposed to Extreme Events in the 150 Most Populated Cities of the World: Implications for Public Health. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18031293. [PMID: 33535524 PMCID: PMC7908124 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18031293] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2020] [Revised: 01/25/2021] [Accepted: 01/27/2021] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
Climate change driven increases in the frequency of extreme heat events (EHE) and extreme precipitation events (EPE) are contributing to both infectious and non-infectious disease burden, particularly in urban city centers. While the share of urban populations continues to grow, a comprehensive assessment of populations impacted by these threats is lacking. Using data from weather stations, climate models, and urban population growth during 1980–2017, here, we show that the concurrent rise in the frequency of EHE, EPE, and urban populations has resulted in over 500% increases in individuals exposed to EHE and EPE in the 150 most populated cities of the world. Since most of the population increases over the next several decades are projected to take place in city centers within low- and middle-income countries, skillful early warnings and community specific response strategies are urgently needed to minimize public health impacts and associated costs to the global economy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Linze Li
- Maryland Institute for Applied Environmental Health, University of Maryland School of Public Health, College Park, MD 20742, USA; (L.L.); (C.J.)
- School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
| | - Chengsheng Jiang
- Maryland Institute for Applied Environmental Health, University of Maryland School of Public Health, College Park, MD 20742, USA; (L.L.); (C.J.)
| | - Raghu Murtugudde
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA; (R.M.); (X.-Z.L.)
| | - Xin-Zhong Liang
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA; (R.M.); (X.-Z.L.)
| | - Amir Sapkota
- Maryland Institute for Applied Environmental Health, University of Maryland School of Public Health, College Park, MD 20742, USA; (L.L.); (C.J.)
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +301-405-8716
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Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Beagley J, Belesova K, Boykoff M, Byass P, Cai W, Campbell-Lendrum D, Capstick S, Chambers J, Coleman S, Dalin C, Daly M, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Di Napoli C, Dominguez-Salas P, Drummond P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Escobar LE, Georgeson L, Golder S, Grace D, Graham H, Haggar P, Hamilton I, Hartinger S, Hess J, Hsu SC, Hughes N, Jankin Mikhaylov S, Jimenez MP, Kelman I, Kennard H, Kiesewetter G, Kinney PL, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lampard P, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Lowe R, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McGushin A, McMichael C, Milner J, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Sewe MO, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Pencheon D, Quinn R, Rabbaniha M, Robinson E, Rocklöv J, Romanello M, Semenza JC, Sherman J, Shi L, Springmann M, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Triñanes J, Shumake-Guillemot J, Vu B, Wilkinson P, Winning M, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A. The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises. Lancet 2021; 397:129-170. [PMID: 33278353 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32290-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 699] [Impact Index Per Article: 233.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2020] [Revised: 08/03/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
For the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nick Watts
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Markus Amann
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Nigel Arnell
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany
| | - Jessica Beagley
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Kristine Belesova
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Maxwell Boykoff
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Peter Byass
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
- Environment, Climate Change and Health Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Samantha Coleman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Carole Dalin
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Meaghan Daly
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA
| | - Niheer Dasandi
- School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy
| | - Michael Davies
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Claudia Di Napoli
- School of Agriculture, Policy, and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Paula Dominguez-Salas
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Robert Dubrow
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew Eckelman
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | | | - Su Golder
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Delia Grace
- CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Human Nutrition and Health, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA
| | - Paul Haggar
- School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
| | - Ian Hamilton
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Stella Hartinger
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Jeremy Hess
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Shih-Che Hsu
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nick Hughes
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Marcia P Jimenez
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Harry Kennard
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Gregor Kiesewetter
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Patrick L Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Tord Kjellstrom
- Health and Environment International Trust, Nelson, New Zealand
| | | | - Pete Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Bruno Lemke
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Yang Liu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
- Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lucy McAllister
- Center for Energy Markets, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Alice McGushin
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Karyn Morrissey
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | | | - Kris A Murray
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK; Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Bakau, The Gambia
| | - Tara Neville
- Environment, Climate Change and Health Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | | | | | - Matthias Otto
- Department of Arts, Media and Digital Technologies, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Fereidoon Owfi
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olivia Pearman
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - David Pencheon
- Medical and Health School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Ruth Quinn
- Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Mahnaz Rabbaniha
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Elizabeth Robinson
- School of Agriculture, Policy, and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Scientific Assessment Section, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden
| | - Jodi Sherman
- Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Joaquin Triñanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, CRETUS Institute, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | | | - Bryan Vu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Matthew Winning
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Office of the Vice Provost for Research, University College London, London, UK
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Harper SL, Cunsolo A, Babujee A, Coggins S, Aguilar MD, Wright CJ. Climate change and health in North America: literature review protocol. Syst Rev 2021; 10:3. [PMID: 33390178 PMCID: PMC7780400 DOI: 10.1186/s13643-020-01543-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2020] [Accepted: 11/23/2020] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change is a defining issue and grand challenge for the health sector in North America. Synthesizing evidence on climate change impacts, climate-health adaptation, and climate-health mitigation is crucial for health practitioners and decision-makers to effectively understand, prepare for, and respond to climate change impacts on human health. This protocol paper outlines our process to systematically conduct a literature review to investigate the climate-health evidence base in North America. METHODS A search string will be used to search CINAHL®, Web of Science™, Scopus®, Embase® via Ovid, and MEDLINE® via Ovid aggregator databases. Articles will be screened using inclusion/exclusion criteria by two independent reviewers. First, the inclusion/exclusion criteria will be applied to article titles and abstracts, and then to the full articles. Included articles will be analyzed using quantitative and qualitative methods. DISCUSSION This protocol describes review methods that will be used to systematically and transparently create a database of articles published in academic journals that examine climate-health in North America.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sherilee L Harper
- School of Public Health, University of Alberta, ECHA, 11405 87 Ave NW, Edmonton, AB, T6G 1C9, Canada.
| | - Ashlee Cunsolo
- School of Arctic & Subarctic Studies, Labrador Institute of Memorial University, 219 Hamilton River Road, Stn B, PO Box 490, Happy Valley-Goose Bay, NL, A0P 1E0, Canada
| | - Amreen Babujee
- School of Public Health, University of Alberta, ECHA, 11405 87 Ave NW, Edmonton, AB, T6G 1C9, Canada
| | - Shaugn Coggins
- School of Public Health, University of Alberta, ECHA, 11405 87 Ave NW, Edmonton, AB, T6G 1C9, Canada
| | - Mauricio Domínguez Aguilar
- Unidad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Calle 61 x 66 # 525. Col. Centro, Mérida, Yucatán, México
| | - Carlee J Wright
- School of Public Health, University of Alberta, ECHA, 11405 87 Ave NW, Edmonton, AB, T6G 1C9, Canada
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115
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Pasquini L, van Aardenne L, Godsmark CN, Lee J, Jack C. Emerging climate change-related public health challenges in Africa: A case study of the heat-health vulnerability of informal settlement residents in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 747:141355. [PMID: 32777515 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2020] [Revised: 07/14/2020] [Accepted: 07/27/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Heat has the potential to become one of the most significant public health impacts of climate change in the coming decades. Increases in temperature have been linked to both increasing mortality and morbidity. Cities have been recognized as areas of particular vulnerability to heat's impacts on health, and marginalized groups, such as the poor, appear to have higher heat-related morbidity and mortality. Little research has examined the heat vulnerability of urban informal settlements residents in Africa, even though surface temperatures across Africa are projected to increase at a rate faster than the global average. This paper addresses this knowledge gap through a mixed-methods analysis of the heat-health vulnerability of informal settlement residents in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The heat exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of informal settlement residents were assessed through a combination of climate analyses, semi-structured interviews with local government actors and informal settlement residents, unstructured interviews with health sector respondents, a health impacts literature review, and a stakeholder engagement workshop. The results suggest that increasing temperatures due to climate change will likely be a significant risk to human health in Dar es Salaam, even though the city does not reach extreme temperature conditions, because informal settlement residents have high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity to heat, and because the heat-health relationship is currently an under-prioritized policy issue. While numerous urban planning approaches can play a key role in increasing the resilience of citizens to heat, Dar es Salaam's past and current growth and development patterns greatly complicate the implementation and enforcement of such approaches. For African cities, the findings highlight an urgent need for more research on the vulnerability and resilience of residents to heat-health impacts, because many African cities are likely to present similar characteristics to those in Dar es Salaam that increase resident's vulnerability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lorena Pasquini
- Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa; African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.
| | - Lisa van Aardenne
- Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.
| | - Christie Nicole Godsmark
- School of Public Health, University College Cork, Western Gateway Building, Western Road, Cork T12 XF62, Ireland; Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Lee Road, Cork T23 XE10, Ireland.
| | - Jessica Lee
- Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.
| | - Christopher Jack
- Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.
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116
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Zhang Y, Beggs PJ, McGushin A, Bambrick H, Trueck S, Hanigan IC, Morgan GG, Berry HL, Linnenluecke MK, Johnston FH, Capon AG, Watts N. The 2020 special report of the
MJA–Lancet
Countdown on health and climate change: lessons learnt from Australia’s “Black Summer”. Med J Aust 2020; 213:490-492.e10. [DOI: 10.5694/mja2.50869] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2020] [Revised: 09/10/2020] [Accepted: 09/14/2020] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Alice McGushin
- Institute for Global Health University College London London UK
| | | | | | - Ivan C Hanigan
- University Centre for Rural Health University of Sydney Sydney NSW
| | | | - Helen L Berry
- Australian Institute of Health Innovation Macquarie University Sydney NSW
| | | | - Fay H Johnston
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research University of Tasmania Hobart TAS
| | - Anthony G Capon
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute Monash University Melbourne VIC
| | - Nick Watts
- Institute for Global Health University College London London UK
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Heigl K, Zamfir M, Adler AC, Dammeyer A, Schomacher L, Karlin B, Franitza M, Hörmansdorfer S, Tuschak C, Valenza G, Ochmann U, Herr C, Heinze S. Prevalence of methicillin-sensitive, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, and extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli in newborns: a cross-sectional study. J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med 2020; 35:4243-4249. [PMID: 33207996 DOI: 10.1080/14767058.2020.1849100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria and methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) in healthy newborns and the role of maternal transmission are scarcely discussed. OBJECTIVES The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of MSSA, MRSA, and ESBL among healthy newborns. Additionally, mother-to-newborn transmission rates were investigated as well as antibiotic susceptibility of MSSA, MRSA, and ESBL isolates. METHODS Swabs of 658 newborns and their mothers were collected to investigate the presence of MSSA, MRSA, and ESBL. Swabs were taken from the nose and umbilicus immediately after birth. Additional swabs were taken from the nose, perianal area, and umbilicus 3 days after birth. Samples were screened and further characterized using culture and molecular methods. RESULTS Prevalence of MSSA, MRSA, and ESBL colonization was 10.9, 0.5, and 2.6%, respectively. There was no association between the colonization status of the newborn and infections at any time point. Mother-to-newborn transmission rates (confirmed by PFGE) were 53.6% for MSSA/MRSA and 100% for ESBL. Maternal carriage of MSSA, MRSA, or ESBL was a risk factor for colonization of the newborn. Some isolates were resistant to the antibiotics recommended for therapy, including clindamycin and daptomycin for MSSA/MRSA isolates and ertapenem, fosfomycin, and tigecyclin for ESBL isolates. CONCLUSION No association between infections and the newborns' colonization status could be detected. Maternal colonization played an important role in newborn colonization, but not every case of colonization could be explained by mother-to-newborn transmission. General screening of pregnant women and healthy newborns in the absence of other risk factors is not necessary. To prevent the possibility of transmission in the healthcare setting, professionals, pregnant women, parents, hospital visitors, and obstetricians should receive regular training on appropriate hygiene measures. With regard to the emergence of resistance to recommended antibiotics, an antibiogram should be conducted before treating MSSA/MRSA/ESBL infections to ensure the efficacy of the antibiotics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katharina Heigl
- Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority, Munich/Oberschleißheim/Erlangen, Germany
| | - Mihai Zamfir
- Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority, Munich/Oberschleißheim/Erlangen, Germany
| | - Alexandra C Adler
- Bavarian State Ministry of Public Health and Care Services, Munich, Germany
| | - Antchen Dammeyer
- Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority, Munich/Oberschleißheim/Erlangen, Germany
| | - Lasse Schomacher
- Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority, Munich/Oberschleißheim/Erlangen, Germany
| | - Barbara Karlin
- Rotkreuzklinikum München, Women's Clinic, Munich, Germany
| | | | - Stefan Hörmansdorfer
- Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority, Munich/Oberschleißheim/Erlangen, Germany
| | - Christian Tuschak
- Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority, Munich/Oberschleißheim/Erlangen, Germany
| | - Giuseppe Valenza
- Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority, Munich/Oberschleißheim/Erlangen, Germany
| | - Uta Ochmann
- Institute and Outpatient Clinic of Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, Clinic of the University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Caroline Herr
- Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority, Munich/Oberschleißheim/Erlangen, Germany.,Institute and Outpatient Clinic of Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, Clinic of the University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Stefanie Heinze
- Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority, Munich/Oberschleißheim/Erlangen, Germany.,Institute and Outpatient Clinic of Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, Clinic of the University of Munich, Munich, Germany
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Rodrigues M, Santana P, Rocha A. Modelling climate change impacts on attributable-related deaths and demographic changes in the largest metropolitan area in Portugal: A time-series analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 190:109998. [PMID: 32771365 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109998] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2020] [Revised: 07/13/2020] [Accepted: 07/23/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Previous studies have consistently analyzed the impact that extreme temperatures will have on human health. However, there are very few data on temperature-related mortality burden considering future demographic changes in a context of climate change in Portugal. This study aims to quantify the impact of climate change on heat-, cold-, and net change mortality burdens, taking into account the future demographic changes in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal. We applied a time-series generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson model via a distributed lag nonlinear model to project temperature-related mortality burden for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986-2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046-2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that the total attributable fraction due to temperature, extreme and moderate cold, is statistically significant in the historical period and the future projected scenarios, while extreme and moderate heat were only significant in the projected future summer period. Net differences were attributed to moderate cold in the future winter months. Projections show a consistent and significant increase in future heat-related mortality burden. The attributable fraction due to heat in the future period, compared to the historical period, ranges from 0 to 1.5% for moderate heat and from 0 to 0.5% for extreme heat. Adaptation should be implemented at the local level, so as to prevent and diminish the effects on citizens and healthcare services, in a context of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mónica Rodrigues
- Department of Geography and Tourism, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Coimbra, Portugal.
| | - Paula Santana
- Department of Geography and Tourism, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Alfredo Rocha
- Department of Physics, Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM), University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, Aveiro, Portugal
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Zemtsov S, Shartova N, Varentsov M, Konstantinov P, Kidyaeva V, Shchur A, Timonin S, Grischchenko M. Intraurban social risk and mortality patterns during extreme heat events: A case study of Moscow, 2010-2017. Health Place 2020; 66:102429. [PMID: 32992266 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2020.102429] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2020] [Revised: 08/07/2020] [Accepted: 08/18/2020] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Abstract
There is currently an increase in the number of heat waves occurring worldwide. Moscow experienced the effects of an extreme heat wave in 2010, which resulted in more than 10,000 extra deaths and significant economic damage. This study conducted a comprehensive assessment of the social risks existing during the occurrence of heat waves and allowed us to identify the spatial heterogeneity of the city in terms of thermal risk and the consequences for public health. Using a detailed simulation of the meteorological regime based on the COSMO-CLM regional climate model and the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), a spatial assessment of thermal stress in the summer of 2010 was carried out. Based on statistical data, the components of social risk (vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity of the population) were calculated and mapped. We also performed an analysis of their changes in 2010-2017. A significant differentiation of the territory of Moscow has been revealed in terms of the thermal stress and vulnerability of the population to heat waves. The spatial pattern of thermal stress agrees quite well with the excess deaths observed during the period from July to August 2010. The identified negative trend of increasing vulnerability of the population has grown in most districts of Moscow. The adaptive capacity has been reduced in most of Moscow. The growth of adaptive capacity mainly affects the most prosperous areas of the city.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stepan Zemtsov
- Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, 119571, Prospect Vernadskogo, 84, Moscow, Russian Federation; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 119991, Leninskiye gory, 1, Moscow, Russia.
| | - Natalia Shartova
- Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 119991, Leninskiye gory, 1, Moscow, Russia.
| | - Mikhail Varentsov
- Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 119991, Leninskiye gory, 1, Moscow, Russia; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Research Computing Center, 119234, Leninskiye gory, 1c4, Moscow, Russia; A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics Russian Academy of Science, 119017, Pyzhyovskiy Pereulok, 3, Moscow, Russia; Moscow Center of Fundamental and Applied Mathematics, GSP-1, Leninskie gory, 1, bld.1, 199991, Moscow, Russia.
| | - Pavel Konstantinov
- Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 119991, Leninskiye gory, 1, Moscow, Russia.
| | - Vera Kidyaeva
- Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, 119571, Prospect Vernadskogo, 84, Moscow, Russian Federation; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 119991, Leninskiye gory, 1, Moscow, Russia.
| | - Aleksey Shchur
- National Research University Higher School of Economics, International Laboratory for Population and Health, 101000, Myasnitskaya st., 20, Moscow, Russia.
| | - Sergey Timonin
- National Research University Higher School of Economics, International Laboratory for Population and Health, 101000, Myasnitskaya st., 20, Moscow, Russia.
| | - Mikhail Grischchenko
- Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 119991, Leninskiye gory, 1, Moscow, Russia; National Research University Higher School of Economics, Faculty of Geography and Geoinformation Technology, 109028, Pokrovsky bvd, 11, Moscow, Russia.
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Heat Wave and Elderly Mortality: Historical Analysis and Future Projection for Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, Brazil. ATMOSPHERE 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos11090933] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo (MRSP) is one of the main regions of Brazil that in recent years has shown an increase in the number of days with heat waves, mainly affecting the health of the most sensitive populations, such as the elderly. In this study, we identified the heat waves in the MRSP using three different definitions regarding the maximum daily temperature threshold. To analyze the impact of heat waves on elderly mortality, we used distributed lag nonlinear models (dlnm) and we quantified the heat wave-related excess mortality of elderly people from 1985 to 2005 and made projections for the near future (2030 to 2050) and the distant future (2079–2099) under the climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP: Representative Concentration Paths). An important aspect of this research is that for the projections we take into account two assumptions: non-adaptation and adaptation to the future climate. Our projections show that the heat wave-related excess of elderly mortality will increase in the future, being highest when we consider no adaptation, mainly from cardiovascular diseases in women (up to 587 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year). This study can be used for public policies to implement preventive and adaptive measures in the MRSP.
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[Thermal stress of urban dwellers during heat waves using the example of Freiburg (Breisgau)]. Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz 2020; 63:1004-1012. [PMID: 32617642 DOI: 10.1007/s00103-020-03181-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND As a result of climate change, people are increasingly affected by heat and the negative health effects of heat. Air temperature is often used as a measurement. However, in order to characterize the effects of heat on humans, other factors must be considered in addition to air temperature. OBJECTIVES The aim of this paper is to characterize the thermal stress of urban dwellers by means of the perceived temperature during heat waves, compare it with rural dwellers, and highlight differences from air temperature. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data from the year 2019 are used from two different German Weather Service (DWD) stations located within the city of Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany, and its surroundings (Freiburg Airport). Air temperature as well as other meteorological elements were taken to calculate the perceived temperature by means of the Klima-Michel model. Additionally, days with heat warnings as well as nightly indoor temperatures from the heat health warning system are presented. RESULTS The perceived temperature exceeds the air temperature during heat waves by up to 10 °C. The classic heat-island effect is particularly evident in the difference in the nightly air temperature while the difference in the daily air temperature is small. In the case of perceived temperature, the difference is significantly higher not only at night but also during the day. CONCLUSIONS In order to quantify negative impacts, not only the knowledge of air temperature is required, but also other factors that describe and control the thermal stress on humans. Urban-rural differences in air temperature and perceived temperature enable heat quantification. Adaptation measures taking into account the more intense conditions in cities are necessary.
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Riccò M, Vezzosi L, Balzarini F, Gualerzi G, Valente M, Bragazzi NL. Air temperatures and occupational injuries in the agricultural settings: a report from Northern Italy (Po River Valley, 2013-2017). ACTA BIO-MEDICA : ATENEI PARMENSIS 2020; 91:e2020094. [PMID: 33525259 PMCID: PMC7927534 DOI: 10.23750/abm.v91i4.10035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2020] [Accepted: 06/12/2020] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Abstract
Introduction: High environmental temperatures are associated with an increased risk for occupational injuries (OIs), particularly where environmental exposure and heat sources in the workplace, are associated with internal heat generation by strenuous muscular work. As a consequence, Agricultural Workers (AWs) are among the most heavily affected occupational groups. Methods and aims: The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between environmental temperatures and OIs in AWs from the Po River Valley in the Northern Italy (27,736,158 total inhabitants; mean agricultural workforce of 312,195.6 individuals). Data about OIs from 2013 to 2017, and daily weather for the administrative unit of occurrence were retrieved. Days were classified by a) mininum (Tmin) / maximum (Tmax) air temperatures; b) average day temperature (Tday); c) daily temperature variation (TV), d) relative humidity. Risk for daily OIs was calculated as correspondent Odds Ratios (OR) through a Poisson regression model. Results: Estimated incidence for OIs was 66.3/1,000 workers-year. In regression analysis, for every Tday percentile increase equal to 2.5, an OR 1.007 (95% CI, 1.003 to 1.010) was reported. More precisely, higher risk for OIs was associated to Tmax > 25°C (OR 1.143, 95%CI 1.125-1.160) and to Tmax > 25°C + Tmin > 20°C (OR 1.158, 95%CI 1.138-1.179), Tmin < 0°C were associated with a significantly reduced risk (OR 0.879, 95%CI 0.850-0.910), with the notable exception of older age groups (OR 1.348, 95%CI 1.254; 1.449). During timeframes characterized by Tmax > 35°C (i.e. HW time period), the risk was higher during the first day (OR 1.266; 95%CI 1.206-1.330), and again from the fourth day onwards (OR 1.090; 95%CI 1.048 – 1.133). Analysis of TV identified an increased risk for occupational injuries in days characterized by higher variability, and particularly for TV ranging 4.0 – 4.9 (OR 1.042, 95%CI 1.017 – 1.068), and equals to 5.0 or greater (OR 1.143, 95%CI 1.118 – 1.167). Also increased relative humidity was associated with higher risk for OIs (OR 1.096, 95%CI 1.081-1.126, and OR 1.154, 95%CI 1.135-1.173 for relative humidity 70 – 89%, and ≥ 90%). Conclusions: Our findings recommend policymakers to develop appropriate procedures and guidelines, in particular for the HW time periods. (www.actabiomedica.it)
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Affiliation(s)
- Matteo Riccò
- Azienda USL di Reggio EmiliaV.le Amendola n.2 - 42122 REServizio di Prevenzione e Sicurezza negli Ambienti di Lavoro (SPSAL)Dip. di Prevenzione.
| | - Luigi Vezzosi
- Agenzia di Tutela della Salute (ATS) della Val Padana; Via Toscani n.1; Mantova (MN), Italy.
| | - Federica Balzarini
- University "Vita e Salute", San Raffaele Hospital; Via Olgettina n. 58, 20132; Milan (MI), Italy.
| | - Giovanni Gualerzi
- University of Parma, Department of Medicine and Surgery, School of Medicine; Via Gramsci n.14, 43123; Parma (PR), Italy.
| | - Marina Valente
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, Unit of Clinical Surgery, University of Parma, I-43123 Parma (PR), Italy.
| | - Nicola Luigi Bragazzi
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of York, Toronto (ON), Canada.
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123
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Piil JF, Christiansen L, Morris NB, Mikkelsen CJ, Ioannou LG, Flouris AD, Lundbye-Jensen J, Nybo L. Direct exposure of the head to solar heat radiation impairs motor-cognitive performance. Sci Rep 2020; 10:7812. [PMID: 32385322 PMCID: PMC7210303 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-64768-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2020] [Accepted: 04/22/2020] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Health and performance impairments provoked by thermal stress are societal challenges geographically spreading and intensifying with global warming. Yet, science may be underestimating the true impact, since no study has evaluated effects of sunlight exposure on human brain temperature and function. Accordingly, performance in cognitively dominated and combined motor-cognitive tasks and markers of rising brainstem temperature were evaluated during exposure to simulated sunlight (equal to ~1000 watt/m2). Acute exposure did not affect any performance measures, whereas prolonged exposure of the head and neck provoked an elevation of the core temperature by 1 °C and significant impairments of cognitively dominated and motor task performances. Importantly, impairments emerged at considerably lower hyperthermia levels compared to previous experiments and to the trials in the presents study without radiant heating of the head. These findings highlight the importance of including the effect of sunlight radiative heating of the head and neck in future scientific evaluations of environmental heat stress impacts and specific protection of the head to minimize detrimental effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacob F Piil
- Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports, Section for integrative physiology, University of Copenhagen, 2200, Copenhagen N, Denmark.
| | - Lasse Christiansen
- Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports, Section for integrative physiology, University of Copenhagen, 2200, Copenhagen N, Denmark.,Danish Research Centre for Magnetic Resonance, Center for Functional and Diagnostic Imaging and Research, Copenhagen University Hospital Hvidovre, 2650, Hvidovre, Denmark
| | - Nathan B Morris
- Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports, Section for integrative physiology, University of Copenhagen, 2200, Copenhagen N, Denmark
| | - C Jacob Mikkelsen
- Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports, Section for integrative physiology, University of Copenhagen, 2200, Copenhagen N, Denmark
| | - Leonidas G Ioannou
- Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports, Section for integrative physiology, University of Copenhagen, 2200, Copenhagen N, Denmark.,FAME Laboratory, School of Exercise Science, University of Thessaly, Thessaly, Greece
| | - Andreas D Flouris
- FAME Laboratory, School of Exercise Science, University of Thessaly, Thessaly, Greece
| | - Jesper Lundbye-Jensen
- Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports, Section for integrative physiology, University of Copenhagen, 2200, Copenhagen N, Denmark
| | - Lars Nybo
- Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports, Section for integrative physiology, University of Copenhagen, 2200, Copenhagen N, Denmark
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Tran DN, Doan VQ, Nguyen VT, Khan A, Thai PK, Cunrui H, Chu C, Schak E, Phung D. Spatial patterns of health vulnerability to heatwaves in Vietnam. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2020; 64:863-872. [PMID: 32086569 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-01876-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2019] [Revised: 01/28/2020] [Accepted: 02/08/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
The increasing frequency and intensity of heat events have weighty impacts on public health in Vietnam, but their effects vary across regions. In this study, we have applied a vulnerability assessment framework (VAF) to systematically assess the spatial pattern of health vulnerability to heatwaves in Vietnam. The VAF was computed as the function of three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, with the indicators for each dimension derived from the relevant literature, consultation with experts, and available data. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine the weight of indicators. Each province in Vietnam's vulnerability to the health impacts of heatwaves was evaluated by applying the vulnerability index, computed using 13 indicators (sensitivity index, 9; adaptive capacity index, 3; and exposure index, 1). As a result of this analysis, this study has identified heatwave vulnerability 'hotspots', primarily in the Southeast, Central Highlands, and South Central Coast of Vietnam. However, these hotspots are not necessarily the same as the area most vulnerable to climate change, because some areas that are more sensitive to heatwaves may have a higher capacity to adapt to them due to a host of factors including their population characteristics (e.g. rates of the elderly or children), socio-economic and geographical conditions, and the availability of air-conditioners. This kind of information, provided by the vulnerability index framework, allows policymakers to determine how to more efficiently allocate resources and devise appropriate interventions to minimise the impact of heatwaves with strategies tailored to each region of Vietnam.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dang Ngoc Tran
- The Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
- Department of Environmental Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
| | - Van Quang Doan
- Centre for Computational Sciences, the University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8577, Japan
| | - Vien Truong Nguyen
- Department of Environmental Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
| | - Ansar Khan
- Department of Geography, Lalbaba College, Howrah, India
| | - Phong K Thai
- Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, 4102, Australia
| | - Huang Cunrui
- Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Cordia Chu
- Centre for Environment and Population Health, School of Medicine, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Elena Schak
- Centre for Environment and Population Health, School of Medicine, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Dung Phung
- Centre for Environment and Population Health, School of Medicine, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia.
- School of Medicine, Griffith University, Gold Coast campus, Parklands Drive, Southport, QLD, 4222, Australia.
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125
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Wu Y, Wang X, Wu J, Wang R, Yang S. Performance of heat-health warning systems in Shanghai evaluated by using local heat-related illness data. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 715:136883. [PMID: 32006779 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136883] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2019] [Revised: 01/18/2020] [Accepted: 01/21/2020] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
In response to more frequent heatwaves, various regional or national heat-health warning systems (HHWSs) have been developed recently as adaptation measures. A wide range of methodologies have been utilized to issue warnings, as there is no universal definition of "heat event" or "heatwave", nor are there quantified thresholds of human-health tolerance to extreme weather. The performance of these warning systems has rarely been evaluated with actual heat-health data, especially the morbidity data, in regions with severe impact. In this study, we assessed the performance of the Shanghai HHWS based on heat-related illness data collected by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) and then conducted a comparative analysis among the Shanghai HHWS, the China Meteorological Administration HHWS, the Chinese national standard for heatwave indexes, the heat index adopted by the USA's National Weather Service and the definition suggested by the World Meteorological Organization to understand their potential performance for application in Shanghai and to evaluate the temperature thresholds and different meteorological indices employed. The results show that: 1) during the research period, 50% of heat-related illnesses and 58.2% of heat-related deaths in Shanghai occurred on dates that had no heat warnings; 2) for the current threshold (35 °C), the single metric of temperature outperformed the temperature-duration two-parameter method; 3) different from existing studies, while infants and seniors are deemed as vulnerable population groups to heat, young and middle-aged males were found to suffer more heat-related illnesses in hot weather. More detailed analyses reveal that the performance of heat-health warning systems needs to be evaluated and revised periodically, and warning thresholds utilized must be localized to reflect public tolerance to heat and to address the vulnerability of target population groups. Temperature is the dominant threshold in heat-related morbidity and mortality analysis. While a decrease in the temperature threshold would definitely increase the warning frequency and socioeconomic costs, it might also cause warning fatigue. The trade-off between these two aspects is essential for decision-makers and other stakeholders in HHWS design and improvement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yaqiao Wu
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; School of Government, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Xiaoye Wang
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Jingyan Wu
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Rui Wang
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Saini Yang
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
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Estoque RC, Ooba M, Seposo XT, Togawa T, Hijioka Y, Takahashi K, Nakamura S. Heat health risk assessment in Philippine cities using remotely sensed data and social-ecological indicators. Nat Commun 2020; 11:1581. [PMID: 32221303 PMCID: PMC7101384 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15218-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2019] [Accepted: 02/24/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
More than half of the world’s population currently live in urban areas and are particularly at risk from the combined effects of the urban heat island phenomenon and heat increases due to climate change. Here, by using remotely sensed surface temperature data and social-ecological indicators, focusing on the hot dry season, and applying the risk framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we assessed the current heat health risk in 139 Philippine cities, which account for about 40% of the country’s total population. The cities at high or very high risk are found in Metro Manila, where levels of heat hazard and exposure are high. The most vulnerable cities are, however, found mainly outside the national capital region, where sensitivity is higher and capacity to cope and adapt is lower. Cities with high levels of heat vulnerability and exposure must be prioritized for adaptation. Our results will contribute to risk profiling in the Philippines and to the understanding of city-level heat health risks in developing regions of the Asia-Pacific. Evaluating the heat risk among city dwellers is important. Here, the authors assessed the heat risk in Philippine cities using remote sensing data and social-ecological indicators and found that the cities at high or very high risk are found in Metro Manila, where levels of heat hazard and exposure are high.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ronald C Estoque
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.
| | - Makoto Ooba
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Xerxes T Seposo
- Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki City, Nagasaki, 852-8523, Japan
| | - Takuya Togawa
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Yasuaki Hijioka
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Kiyoshi Takahashi
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Shogo Nakamura
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
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127
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Liang Z, Wu S, Wang Y, Wei F, Huang J, Shen J, Li S. The relationship between urban form and heat island intensity along the urban development gradients. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 708:135011. [PMID: 31806300 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2019] [Revised: 10/14/2019] [Accepted: 10/15/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
There is an increasing demand for urban form optimization to mitigate urban heat island (UHI) effect under the background of global climate change and urbanization. However, there is still a lack of understanding about how the relationship between urban form and UHI intensity changes under diverse urbanization contexts. This study aims to show the change patterns of the relationship between urban form and UHI intensity along the urban development gradient based upon the investigation of a total of 150 urban areas in the Jing-Jin-Ji region in China in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015. We defined a comprehensive urban development index taking into account the size of urban area, population density and night light intensity to classify the different levels of urban development. A multi-model comparison was carried out to validate the results. We found that the increase in urban continuity, sprawling, scale and density all enhanced UHI effect at the regional scale. However, the relationship between urban form indicators and UHI intensity demonstrated two opposite patterns along the urban development gradient: population density, geometric complexity and continuity, and general vegetation index of a city were found to be increasingly influential, while night light intensity, geometric elongation and forest coverage presented declining influence. Finally, the study obtained an ascending contribution rate curve for urban geometry indicators, a convex curve for urban size indicators and a declining curve for urban vegetation. These changes along the urban development gradient may be closely related to the changes of the microclimate in cities due to land use, social and economic activities in different urban development stages. The findings can contribute to more appropriate and effective urban planning in countries and regions undergoing rapid urbanization as a valuable reference.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ze Liang
- College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Shuyao Wu
- College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Yueyao Wang
- College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Feili Wei
- College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Jiao Huang
- College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Jiashu Shen
- College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Shuangcheng Li
- College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
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128
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Zhang W, Li Y, Li Z, Wei X, Ren T, Liu J, Zhu Y. Impacts of climate change, population growth, and urbanization on future population exposure to long-term temperature change during the warm season in China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:8481-8491. [PMID: 31902079 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-019-07238-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2019] [Accepted: 12/02/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures in the twenty-first century and is likely to intensify population exposure to heat during the warm season and, as a result, increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths. While earlier studies of heat exposure and related health impacts generally focused on the acute effects of short-term exposure indicated by high daily temperature or several days of very hot weather, recent research has suggested that small changes in seasonal average temperature over a long period of time is likely to pose significant health risk as well. Using downscaled climate projections under three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios, high-spatial-resolution population data, and the latest population projections by the United Nations, we aim at projecting future changes in long-term population exposure to summer heat across China in the mid- and late-twenty-first century resulting from global climate change. As the impacts of population growth are often overlooked in projecting future changes in heat exposure, we estimated changes in population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter over two future 20-year time periods and compared them with changes in temperature only. Our analysis shows that, nationally, population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter is projected to increase by 2.2 °C relative to the current situation in the 2050s and by 2.5 °C in the 2070s, as the result of climate change and population growth. Despite the foreseeable population stabilization in China, changes in population-weighted temperature are projected to be higher than changes in temperature itself for the majority of the 33 provinces (ranging from 0.02 °C to 1.27 °C, or 1% to 126% higher in the 2050s and from 0.02 °C to 1.16 °C, or 1% to 73% higher in the 2070s), with the largest differences mainly occurring in Western China. The impact of urbanization is projected to be relatively insignificant. Our findings provide evidence of possible underestimation of future changes in long-term exposure to summer heat if the effect of population growth is not factored in.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Zhang
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China
| | - Ying Li
- Department of Environmental Health, College of Public Health, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN, 37614, USA.
| | - Zhuang Li
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China
| | - Xin Wei
- Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Ting Ren
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China
| | - Jie Liu
- Nanyang Meteorological Service of Henan Province, 209 Beijing Road Nanyang, Henan, 473000, China
| | - Yan Zhu
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China
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129
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A Consistent Methodology to Evaluate Temperature and Heat Wave Future Projections for Cities: A Case Study for Lisbon. APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/app10031149] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Heat waves are large-scale atmospheric phenomena that may cause heat stress in ecosystems and socio-economic activities. In cities, morbidity and mortality may increase during a heat wave, overloading health and emergency services. In the face of climate change and associated warming, cities need to adapt and mitigate the effects of heat waves. This study suggests a new method to evaluate heat waves’ impacts on cities by considering some aspects of heat waves that are not usually considered in other similar studies. The method devises heat wave quantities that are easy to calculate; it is relevant to assessing their impacts and permits the development of adaptation measures. This study applies the suggested method to quantify various aspects of heat waves in Lisbon for future climate projections considering future mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2081–2100) climates under the RCP8.5 greenhouse emission scenario. This is achieved through the analysis of various regional climate simulations performed with the WRF model and an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX models. This allows an estimation of uncertainty and confidence of the projections. To evaluate the climate change properties of heat waves, statistics for future climates are compared to those for a reference recent climate. Simulated temperatures are first bias corrected to minimize the model systematic errors relative to observations. The temperature for mid and long-term futures is expected to increase relative to the present by 1.6 °C and 3.6 °C, respectively, with late summer months registering the highest increases. The number of heat wave days per year will increase on average from 10, in the present climate, to 38 and 63 in mid and long-term climates, respectively. Heat wave duration, intensity, average maximum temperature, and accumulated temperature during a heat wave will also increase. Heat waves account for an annual average of accumulated temperature of 358 °C·day in the present climate, while in the mid and long-term, future climates account for 1270 °C·day and 2078 °C·day, respectively. The largest increases are expected to occur from July to October. Extreme intensity and long-duration heat waves with an average maximum temperature of more than 40 °C are expected to occur in the future climates.
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Heat Health Prevention Measures and Adaptation in Older Populations-A Systematic Review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16224370. [PMID: 31717424 PMCID: PMC6888447 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16224370] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2019] [Revised: 10/29/2019] [Accepted: 11/06/2019] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
The population of older people is increasing at a rapid rate, with those 80 years and older set to triple by 2050. This systematic review aimed to examine older people’s perceptions and behaviours against existing heatwaves prevention measures and systematically categorize and analyse those measures using the Ottawa charter for health promotion framework. Peer-reviewed published literature between 22nd September 2006 and 24th April 2018 was retrieved, according to the PRISMA guidelines, from five different databases. Eighteen articles were finally included. There is a lack of published studies from developing countries. Results were categorized and analysed using the Ottawa charter five action areas. Mitigation strategies from current heat action plans are discussed and gaps are highlighted. A lack of systematic evaluation of heat action plans efficacy was identified. Older people are not demonstrating all recommended preventative measures during heatwaves. Support personnel and health professionals are not being pro-active enough in facilitating prevention of adverse effects from heatwaves. Governments are beginning to implement policy changes, but other recommended support measures outlined in the Ottawa charter are still lacking, and hence require further action. Linkage between specific components of heat action plans and outcomes cannot be ascertained; therefore, more systematic evaluation is needed.
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Bardón Iglesias MDR, Cámara Díez E, Rivera Ariza S, Gandarillas Grande A, Ordobás Gavín M, Fúster Lorán F. Vigilancia y control de los efectos de las olas de calor en la salud en la Comunidad de Madrid 2019. REVISTA MADRILEÑA DE SALUD PÚBLICA 2019. [DOI: 10.36300/remasp.2019.025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
El Plan de Vigilancia y Control de los Efectos de las Olas de Calor en la Comunidad de Madrid, vigente desde 2004, establece un umbral de alerta por ola de calor a partir del cual se estima que se produce un impacto en la salud de la población en términos de aumento significativo de la mortalidad. Este Plan preventivo, activa la alerta cuando se prevé superar los 36,5ºC en el día en curso o en cualquiera de los cuatro días siguientes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mª del Rocío Bardón Iglesias
- Área de Vigilancia de Riesgos Ambientales en Salud. Subdirección General de Sanidad Ambiental. Dirección General de Salud Pública. Consejería de Sanidad. Comunidad de Madrid
| | - Enrique Cámara Díez
- Área de Vigilancia de Riesgos Ambientales en Salud. Subdirección General de Sanidad Ambiental. Dirección General de Salud Pública. Consejería de Sanidad. Comunidad de Madrid
| | - Silvia Rivera Ariza
- Servicio de Alertas en Salud Pública. Subdirección General de Epidemiología. Dirección General de Salud Pública. Consejería de Sanidad. Comunidad de Madrid
| | - Ana Gandarillas Grande
- Servicio de Epidemiología. Subdirección General de Epidemiología. Dirección General de Salud Pública. Consejería de Sanidad. Comunidad de Madrid
| | - María Ordobás Gavín
- Servicio de Epidemiología. Subdirección General de Epidemiología. Dirección General de Salud Pública. Consejería de Sanidad. Comunidad de Madrid
| | - Fernando Fúster Lorán
- Área de Vigilancia de Riesgos Ambientales en Salud. Subdirección General de Sanidad Ambiental. Dirección General de Salud Pública. Consejería de Sanidad. Comunidad de Madrid
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Can G, Şahin Ü, Sayılı U, Dubé M, Kara B, Acar HC, İnan B, Aksu Sayman Ö, Lebel G, Bustinza R, Küçükali H, Güven U, Gosselin P. Excess Mortality in Istanbul during Extreme Heat Waves between 2013 and 2017. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:E4348. [PMID: 31703402 PMCID: PMC6887774 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16224348] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2019] [Revised: 11/05/2019] [Accepted: 11/05/2019] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
Heat waves are one of the most common direct impacts of anthropogenic climate change and excess mortality their most apparent impact. While Turkey has experienced an increase in heat wave episodes between 1971 and 2016, no epidemiological studies have examined their potential impacts on public health so far. In this study excess mortality in Istanbul attributable to extreme heat wave episodes between 2013 and 2017 is presented. Total excess deaths were calculated using mortality rates across different categories, including age, sex, and cause of death. The analysis shows that three extreme heat waves in the summer months of 2015, 2016, and 2017, which covered 14 days in total, significantly increased the mortality rate and caused 419 excess deaths in 23 days of exposure. As climate simulations show that Turkey is one of the most vulnerable countries in the Europe region to the increased intensity of heat waves until the end of the 21st century, further studies about increased mortality and morbidity risks due to heat waves in Istanbul and other cities, as well as intervention studies, are necessary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Günay Can
- Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Ümit Şahin
- Sabanci University Istanbul Policy Center, Bankalar Caddesi, No:2 Karaköy Minerva Han, 34420 Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Uğurcan Sayılı
- Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Marjolaine Dubé
- Institut national de santé publique du Québec, 945 Avenue Wolfe, Québec, QC G1V 5B3, Canada
| | - Beril Kara
- Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Hazal Cansu Acar
- Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Barış İnan
- Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Özden Aksu Sayman
- Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Germain Lebel
- Institut national de santé publique du Québec, 945 Avenue Wolfe, Québec, QC G1V 5B3, Canada
| | - Ray Bustinza
- Institut national de santé publique du Québec, 945 Avenue Wolfe, Québec, QC G1V 5B3, Canada
| | - Hüseyin Küçükali
- Department of Public Health, Istanbul Medipol University School of Medicine, Kavacık mah. Ekinciler cad. No:19 Kavacık Kavşağı, Beykoz, 34810 Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Umur Güven
- Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Pierre Gosselin
- Institut national de santé publique du Québec and Université Laval, 945 Avenue Wolfe, Québec, QC G1V 5B3, Canada
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Campbell SL, Remenyi TA, Williamson GJ, White CJ, Johnston FH. The Value of Local Heatwave Impact Assessment: A Case-Crossover Analysis of Hospital Emergency Department Presentations in Tasmania, Australia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16193715. [PMID: 31581630 PMCID: PMC6801666 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16193715] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2019] [Revised: 09/30/2019] [Accepted: 09/30/2019] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Heatwaves have been identified as a threat to human health, with this impact projected to rise in a warming climate. Gaps in local knowledge can potentially undermine appropriate policy and preparedness actions. Using a case-crossover methodology, we examined the impact of heatwave events on hospital emergency department (ED) presentations in the two most populous regions of Tasmania, Australia, from 2008–2016. Using conditional logistic regression, we analyzed the relationship between ED presentations and severe/extreme heatwaves for the whole population, specific demographics including age, gender and socio-economic advantage, and diagnostic conditions that are known to be impacted in high temperatures. ED presentations increased by 5% (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01–1.09) across the whole population, by 13% (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03–1.24) for children 15 years and under, and by 19% (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04–1.36) for children 5 years and under. A less precise association in the same direction was found for those over 65 years. For diagnostic subgroups, non-significant increases in ED presentations were observed for asthma, diabetes, hypertension, and atrial fibrillation. These findings may assist ED surge capacity planning and public health preparedness and response activities for heatwave events in Tasmania, highlighting the importance of using local research to inform local practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sharon L Campbell
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, 1 Liverpool St, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia.
- Public Health Services, Department of Health (Tasmania), 25 Argyle St, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia.
| | - Tomas A Remenyi
- Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia.
| | - Grant J Williamson
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
| | - Christopher J White
- Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia.
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, James Weir Building, 75 Montrose Street, Glasgow G1 1XJ, UK.
| | - Fay H Johnston
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, 1 Liverpool St, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia.
- Public Health Services, Department of Health (Tasmania), 25 Argyle St, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia.
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Cheng J, Xu Z, Bambrick H, Prescott V, Wang N, Zhang Y, Su H, Tong S, Hu W. Cardiorespiratory effects of heatwaves: A systematic review and meta-analysis of global epidemiological evidence. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2019; 177:108610. [PMID: 31376629 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.108610] [Citation(s) in RCA: 103] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2019] [Revised: 07/23/2019] [Accepted: 07/25/2019] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heatwaves affect human health and global heatwave-related disease burden will continue to rise as climate change proceeds, but the effects of heatwaves on cardiovascular and respiratory diseases have not yet been investigated globally and nationally. OBJECTIVES This systematic review and meta-analysis aim to quantify heatwave effects on four major health outcomes: cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality. METHODS We searched PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science for relevant studies from database inception to November 2018. Categories of morbidity included hospital admissions, emergency department visits, and ambulance attendances/call-outs. A random-effects meta-analysis model was used to pool previous estimates of heatwave effects on mortality and morbidity due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Subgroup analyses by gender, age, and disease cause were conducted. Sensitivity analyses were performed by the categories of morbidity, heatwave definitions, study design, and using a leave-one-out cross validation approach. This study is registered with PROSPERO (number: CRD42018101964). RESULTS We identified 54 studies conducted in 20 countries. In total, there were significant associations between heatwaves and cardiovascular mortality (risk estimates (RE): 1.149, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.090, 1.210) and respiratory mortality (RE: 1.183, 95%CI: 1.092, 1.282), but the magnitude of these associations varied across countries and studies. Heatwaves appeared to be marginally associated with cardiovascular and respiratory morbidities (RE: 0.999, 95%CI: 0.996, 1.002, p-value = 0.61 for cardiovascular morbidity; RE: 1.043, 95%CI: 0.995, 1.093; p-value = 0.08 for respiratory morbidity). For mortality, significant associations were observed for the elderly, ischemic heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Sensitivity analyses suggested that these findings were robust. CONCLUSION Mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases appeared to be more vulnerable to heatwaves in comparison to morbidity. Considering high heterogeneity detected between studies and limited investigations into subpopulations, more research are required to provide a clearer picture of how heatwaves affect cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in different settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Cheng
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Ning Wang
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Yuzhou Zhang
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Hong Su
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Anhui, China
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Anhui, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia.
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Martinez GS, Linares C, Ayuso A, Kendrovski V, Boeckmann M, Diaz J. Heat-health action plans in Europe: Challenges ahead and how to tackle them. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2019; 176:108548. [PMID: 31247429 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.108548] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2019] [Revised: 06/17/2019] [Accepted: 06/18/2019] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
High temperatures have periodically affected large areas in Europe and urban settings. In particular, the deadly 2003 summer heat waves precipitated a multitude of national and subnational health prevention and research efforts. Building on these and other international experiences the WHO Regional Office for Europe developed and published in 2008 a comprehensive framework for prevention, the heat-health action plans (HHAPs). This provided a blueprint used by several national and subnational authorities to design their prevention efforts. A decade after the publication of the WHO guidance, a wealth of new evidence and acquired implementation experience has emerged around HHAP effectiveness; heat exposure; acclimatization and adaptation; heat-health governance and stakeholder involvement; and the role of urban design and greening interventions in prevention. This evidence and experience can guide the strategies to tackle current and upcoming challenges in protecting health from heat under a warming climate.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Ana Ayuso
- Carlos III National Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | - Julio Diaz
- Carlos III National Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
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136
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Green H, Bailey J, Schwarz L, Vanos J, Ebi K, Benmarhnia T. Impact of heat on mortality and morbidity in low and middle income countries: A review of the epidemiological evidence and considerations for future research. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2019; 171:80-91. [PMID: 30660921 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.01.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2018] [Revised: 01/04/2019] [Accepted: 01/04/2019] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Heat waves and high air temperature are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. However, the majority of research conducted on this topic is focused on high income areas of the world. Although heat waves have the most severe impacts on vulnerable populations, relatively few studies have studied their impacts in low and middle income countries (LMICs). The aim of this paper is to review the existing evidence in the literature on the impact of heat on human health in LMICs. We identified peer-reviewed epidemiologic studies published in English between January 1980 and August 2018 investigating potential associations between high ambient temperature or heat waves and mortality or morbidity. We selected studies according to the following criteria: quantitative studies that used primary and/or secondary data and report effect estimates where ambient temperature or heat waves are the main exposure of interest in relation to human morbidity or mortality within LMICs. Of the total 146 studies selected, eighty-two were conducted in China, nine in other countries of East Asia and the Pacific, twelve in South Asia, ten in Sub-Saharan Africa, eight in the Middle East and North Africa, and seven in each of Latin America and Europe. The majority of studies (92.9%) found positive associations between heat and human morbidity/mortality. Additionally, while outcome variables and study design differed greatly, most utilized a time-series study design and examined overall heath related morbidity/mortality impacts in an entire population, although it is notable that the selected studies generally found that the elderly, women, and individuals within the low socioeconomic brackets were the most vulnerable to the effects of high temperature. By highlighting the existing evidence on the impact of extreme heat on health in LMICs, we hope to determine data needs and help direct future studies in addressing this knowledge gap. The focus on LMICs is justified by the lack of studies and data studying the health burden of higher temperatures in these regions even though LMICs have a lower capacity to adapt to high temperatures and thus an increased risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hunter Green
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, 92093 CA, USA
| | - Jennifer Bailey
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Lara Schwarz
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, 92093 CA, USA; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Jennifer Vanos
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, 92093 CA, USA; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Kristie Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Tarik Benmarhnia
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, 92093 CA, USA; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA.
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The Linkage of the Large-Scale Circulation Pattern to a Long-Lived Heatwave over Mideastern China in 2018. ATMOSPHERE 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos10020089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
In this study, the large-scale circulation patterns (a blocking high, wave trains and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH)) associated with a wide ranging and highly intense long-lived heatwave in China during the summer of 2018 are examined using both observational data and reanalysis data. Four hot periods are extracted from the heatwave and these are related to anticyclones (hereafter referred to as heatwave anticyclone) over the hot region. Further analysis shows a relationship between the heatwave anticyclone and a synthesis of low, mid- and high latitude circulation systems. In the mid-high latitudes, a midlatitude wave train and a high latitude wave train are associated with a relay process which maintains the heatwave anticyclone. The midlatitude wave train acts during 16–21 July, whereas the high latitude wave train takes affect during 22–28 July. The transition between the two wave trains leads to the northward movement of the hot region. With the help of a wave flux analysis, it was found that both wave trains originate from the positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) which acts as an Atlantic wave source. Serving as a circulation background, the blocking situated over the Scandinavia-Ural sector is maintained for 18 days from 14 to 15 August, which is accompanied by the persistent wave trains and the heatwave anticyclone. Additionally, the abnormal northward movement of the WPSH and its combination with the high latitude wave train lead to the occurrence of extreme hot weather in north-eastern China occurring during the summer of 2018.
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Zhao Q, Li S, Coelho MSZS, Saldiva PHN, Hu K, Huxley RR, Abramson MJ, Guo Y. The association between heatwaves and risk of hospitalization in Brazil: A nationwide time series study between 2000 and 2015. PLoS Med 2019; 16:e1002753. [PMID: 30794537 PMCID: PMC6386221 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002753] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2018] [Accepted: 01/23/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To our knowledge, no study has assessed the association between heatwaves and risk of hospitalization and how it may change over time in Brazil. We quantified the heatwave-hospitalization association in Brazil during 2000-2015. METHODS AND FINDINGS Daily data on hospitalization and temperature were collected from 1,814 cities (>78% of the national population) in the hottest five consecutive months during 2000-2015. Twelve types of heatwaves were defined with daily mean temperatures of ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, or 97.5th percentiles of year-round temperature and durations of ≥2, 3, or 4 consecutive days. The city-specific association was estimated using a quasi-Poisson regression with constrained distributed lag model and then pooled at the national level using random-effect meta-analysis. Stratified analyses were performed by five regions, sex, 10 age groups, and nine cause categories. The temporal change in the heatwave-hospitalization association was assessed using a time-varying constrained distributed lag model. Of the 58,400,682 hospitalizations (59% women), 24%, 34%, 21%, and 19% of cases were aged <20, 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60 years, respectively. The city-specific year-round daily mean temperatures were 23.5 ± 2.8 °C on average, varying from 26.8 ± 1.8 °C for the 90th percentile to 28.0 ± 1.6 °C for the 97.5th percentile. We observed that the risk of hospitalization was most pronounced for heatwaves characterized by high daily temperatures and long durations across Brazil, except for the minimal association in the north (the hottest region). After controlling for temperature, the association remained for severe heatwaves in the south and southeast (cold regions). Children 0-9 years, the elderly ≥70 years, and admissions for perinatal conditions were most strongly associated with heatwaves. Over the study period, the strength of the heatwave-hospitalization association declined substantially in the south, while an apparent increase was observed in the southeast. The main limitations of this study included the lack of data on individual temperature exposure and measured air pollution. CONCLUSIONS There are geographic, demographic, cause-specific, and temporal variations in the heatwave-hospitalization associations across the Brazilian population. Considering the projected increase in frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves, future strategies should be developed, such as building early warning systems, to reduce the health risk associated with heatwaves in Brazil.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- * E-mail: (SL); (YG)
| | | | | | - Kejia Hu
- Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China
| | - Rachel R. Huxley
- College of Science, Health and Engineering, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Michael J. Abramson
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- * E-mail: (SL); (YG)
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139
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Quantifying Thermal Stress for Sport Events—The Case of the Olympic Games 2020 in Tokyo. ATMOSPHERE 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos9120479] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The effect of weather on sport events is largely discussed in the sports medicine and exercise physiology context. It is important, both for event organizers and for medical staff, to know whether the competition is happening at a time and place with extreme weather or in general not appropriate weather and climatic conditions. In order to find out, whether a place or time is appropriate, two factors should be included when establishing the effect of atmospheric conditions on visitors and athletes. These are the main climatic conditions, based on long term data, and the quantification of extreme events, like heat waves. The present analysis aims at determining what kind of data are required for an appropriate quantification of weather and climate thermal stress. For the analysis, indices like Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and mPET (modified PET) are applied. The advantage of these indices is the consideration of both, thermo-physiological and meteorological factors to provide results and information that can be used for decision making. In this paper, we analyzed the Tokyo area with regards to the upcoming Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games. The results show that this kind of event may not be appropriate for visitors, if it is placed during months with extreme conditions. For Tokyo, this is the period from May to September, when conditions cause strong heat stress to the visitors for the vast majority of hours of the day. A more appropriate time would be the months from November to February or the early morning and the late afternoon hours, when thermally comfortable conditions are much more frequent. The methods that are applied here can quantify the thermal conditions and show limitations and possibilities for specific events and locations. Should the organizers still want to have these competitions organized during these months with extreme conditions, they should promote and propose all possible countermeasures for the spectators, workforce, and athletes.
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