Monitoring vaccination coverage: Defining the role of surveys

Collecting and using reliable vaccination coverage survey estimates: Summary and recommendations from the "Meeting to share lessons learnt from the roll-out of the updated WHO Vaccination Coverage Cluster Survey Reference Manual and to set an operational research agenda around vaccination coverage surveys", Geneva, 18-21 April 2017

Household surveys are frequently used as means of vaccination coverage measurement, but obtaining accurate survey estimates present several challenges. In 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) released a working draft of its updated Vaccination Coverage Survey Reference Manual that moved well beyond the traditional Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) survey design. In April 2017, WHO convened a four-day meeting, to review lessons learned using the updated manual and to define an agenda for operational research about vaccination coverage surveys. About 70 stakeholders, including EPI managers and participants from 10 countries that have used the updated Survey Manual, survey experts, statisticians, partners, representatives from WHO regional offices and headquarters, and providers of technical assistance discussed methodological issues from sampling to accurately ascertaining a person's vaccination status, optimizing data collection and data management and conducting appropriate analyses. Participants also discussed data sharing and how to best survey data for immunization decision-making. The lessons learned from the use of the updated WHO Survey Manual related mainly to operational issues to implement better quality vaccination coverage surveys. It resulted in a list of 23 recommendations for WHO, donors and partners, immunization programs, and household surveys that collect immunization data. Similarly, 14 research topics, categorized in six themes (overall survey conduction, sampling, vaccination ascertainment, data collection, data analysis and use, and inclusion of questions on knowledge, attitudes and practices) were prioritized. Top areas of further work included improving our understanding of the accuracy of caregiver recall when documented evidence of vaccination is not available, improving engagement and coordination between immunization programs and entities conducting multi-purpose household surveys such as Demographic and Health Survey and Multiple Cluster Indicator Survey, improving mechanisms for sharing vaccination survey datasets and documentation, and making better use of survey results to translate data into knowledge for decision-making. This manuscript summarizes the meeting proceedings and provides an update of actions taken by WHO since this meeting.

Use of the revised World Health Organization cluster survey methodology to classify measles-rubella vaccination campaign coverage in 47 counties in Kenya, 2016

INTRODUCTION

To achieve measles elimination, two doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) are provided through routine immunization services or vaccination campaigns. In May 2016, Kenya conducted a measles-rubella (MR) vaccination campaign targeting 19 million children aged 9 months-14 years, with a goal of achieving ≥95% coverage. We conducted a post-campaign cluster survey to estimate national coverage and classify coverage in Kenya's 47 counties.

METHODS

The stratified multi-stage cluster survey included data from 20,011 children in 8,253 households sampled using the recently revised World Health Organization coverage survey methodology (2015). Point estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of national campaign coverage were calculated, accounting for study design. County vaccination coverage was classified as 'pass,' 'fail,' or 'intermediate,' using one-sided hypothesis tests against a 95% threshold.

RESULTS

Estimated national MR campaign coverage was 95% (95% CI: 94%-96%). Coverage differed significantly (p < 0.05) by child's school attendance, mother's education, household wealth, and other factors. In classifying coverage, 20 counties passed (≥95%), two failed (<95%), and 25 were intermediate (unable to classify either way). Reported campaign awareness among caretakers was 92%. After the 2016 MR campaign, an estimated 93% (95% CI: 92%-94%) of children aged 9 months to 14 years had received ≥2 MCV doses; 6% (95% CI: 6%-7%) had 1 MCV dose; and 0.7% (95% CI: 0.6%-0.9%) remained unvaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

Kenya reached the MR campaign target of 95% vaccination coverage, representing a substantial achievement towards increasing population immunity. High campaign awareness reflected the comprehensive social mobilization strategy implemented in Kenya and supports the importance of including strong communications platforms in future vaccination campaigns. In counties with sub-optimal MR campaign coverage, further efforts are needed to increase MCV coverage to achieve the national goal of measles elimination by 2020.

Validity of parental recalls to estimate vaccination coverage: evidence from Tanzania

Background

The estimates of vaccination coverage are measured from administrative data and from population based survey. While both card-based and recall data are collected through population survey, and the recall is when the card is missing, the preferred estimates remain of the card-based due to limited validity of parental recalls. As there is a concern of missing cards in poor settings, the evidence on validity of parental recalls is limited and varied across vaccine types, and therefore timely and needed. We validated the recalls against card-based data based on population survey in Tanzania.

Methods

We used a cross-sectional survey of about 3000 households with women who delivered in the last 12 months prior to the interview in 2012 from three regions in Tanzania. Data on the vaccination status on four vaccine types were collected using two data sources, card and recall-based. We compared the level of agreement and identified the recall bias between the two data sources. We further computed the sensitivity and specificity of parental recalls, and used a multivariate logit model to identify the determinants of parental recall bias.

Results

Most parents (85.4%) were able to present the vaccination cards during the survey, and these were used for analysis. Although the coverage levels were generally similar across data sources, the recall-based data slightly overestimated the coverage estimates. The level of agreement between the two data sources was high above 94%, with minimal recall bias of less than 6%. The recall bias due to over-reporting were slightly higher than that due to under-reporting. The sensitivity of parental recalls was generally high for all vaccine types, while the specificity was generally low across vaccine types except for measles. The minimal recall bias for DPT and measles were associated with the mother’s age, education level, health insurance status, region location and child age.

Conclusion

Parental recalls when compared to card-based data are hugely accurate with minimal recall bias in Tanzania. Our findings support the use of parental recall collected through surveys to identify the child vaccination status in the absence of vaccination cards. The use of recall data alongside card-based estimates also ensures more representative coverage estimates.

An Overview of Coverage of BCG Vaccination and Its Determinants Based on Data from the Coverage Survey in Zhejiang Province

To assess the Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination coverage in Zhejiang province and to investigate predictors of the BCG vaccination, we used data from the 2017 Zhejiang provincial coverage survey. Demographic and immunization data on the selected children, their mothers, and their families were also collected by using a pre-tested questionnaire. BCG scars were verified among children who were available at the moment of survey. Coverage of BCG and other expanded program on immunization (EPI) vaccines scheduled before the first year of life was calculated. BCG coverage through the scar assessment and timeliness of BCG were also presented. Multivariate analyses of the predictors associated with the BCG vaccination and its timeliness were conducted separately. In total, 1393 children agreed to participate in the survey and presented the immunization cards. Of them, the coverage of BCG was 92.0% and 88.3% received the BCG within the first 28 days after birth. Besides this, 1282 out of the 1393 children were screened for the BCG scars and 97.1% of them had developed the scars. The multivariable logistic regression analyses indicated that hospital delivery, higher maternal education, a mother with no job, and a resident child were positively associated with the higher BCG vaccination coverage and its timely administrations. BCG coverage was optimal and it was administered in a timely manner. The majority of children vaccinated with BCG developed scars. Tailored interventions should be more greatly focused on and targeted to children with the risk factors identified in this study.

High resolution age-structured mapping of childhood vaccination coverage in low and middle income countries

BACKGROUND

The expansion of childhood vaccination programs in low and middle income countries has been a substantial public health success story. Indicators of the performance of intervention programmes such as coverage levels and numbers covered are typically measured through national statistics or at the scale of large regions due to survey design, administrative convenience or operational limitations. These mask heterogeneities and 'coldspots' of low coverage that may allow diseases to persist, even if overall coverage is high. Hence, to decrease inequities and accelerate progress towards disease elimination goals, fine-scale variation in coverage should be better characterized.

METHODS

Using measles as an example, cluster-level Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data were used to map vaccination coverage at 1 km spatial resolution in Cambodia, Mozambique and Nigeria for varying age-group categories of children under five years, using Bayesian geostatistical techniques built on a suite of publicly available geospatial covariates and implemented via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

RESULTS

Measles vaccination coverage was found to be strongly predicted by just 4-5 covariates in geostatistical models, with remoteness consistently selected as a key variable. The output 1 × 1 km maps revealed significant heterogeneities within the three countries that were not captured using province-level summaries. Integration with population data showed that at the time of the surveys, few districts attained the 80% coverage, that is one component of the WHO Global Vaccine Action Plan 2020 targets.

CONCLUSION

The elimination of vaccine-preventable diseases requires a strong evidence base to guide strategies and inform efficient use of limited resources. The approaches outlined here provide a route to moving beyond large area summaries of vaccination coverage that mask epidemiologically-important heterogeneities to detailed maps that capture subnational vulnerabilities. The output datasets are built on open data and methods, and in flexible format that can be aggregated to more operationally-relevant administrative unit levels.

Evaluation of the Immunization Program in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina - Possible Modalities for Improvement

INTRODUCTION

Immunization is a lifelong preventive activity that helps prevent/reduce disease, prevent/ reduce mortality and prevent disability from specific infectious diseases.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Authors of this paper researched the WHO extended program of mandatory immunization of children from birth to the age of 18 years and analyzed how it has been implemented in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FB&H), because the guidelines of the specialist physician societies on immunization of adults, elderly people and risk groups of the population are missing.

RESULTS

The paper presents the basic characteristics of the immunization program in the FB&H and the world, points to the most frequent problems that the doctor practitioner has in carrying out immunization, and also presents possible modalities of improving immunization. It is pointed out the need to develop the national guidelines and individual immunization booklets, introduction of electronic registration of immunization, and continuous education of health professionals of all profiles, population, educators, teachers and harmonious partnership relations of health workers, population, social entities and the media with the aim of achieving an appropriate lifelong vaccination.

Socioeconomic factors associated with full childhood vaccination in Bangladesh, 2014

OBJECTIVES

Childhood vaccination in Bangladesh has improved, but there is room for improvement. This study estimated full immunization coverage in Bangladeshi children and characterized risk factors for incomplete immunization.

METHODS

Using the 2014 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), full vaccination of children aged 12 to 24 months was examined; this was defined as the receipt of one dose of bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), three doses of pentavalent vaccine, three doses of oral polio vaccine (OPV), and one dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV). Associations between full vaccination and selected risk factors were assessed by logistic regression.

RESULTS

Overall, 83% of children were fully vaccinated. BCG had the highest completion (97%), followed by OPV (92%), pentavalent vaccine (91%), and MCV (85%). Full vaccination coverage ranged from 64.4% in Sylhet to 90.0% in Rangpur and was lowest among non-locals of all regions (78.4%). Children who were in the lowest wealth quintile, who had mothers without antenatal care visits, or who had mothers without autonomy in healthcare decision-making were less likely to be fully vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, full vaccination of children is high, but varies by vaccine type. Disparities still exist by wealth and by region. Maternal access to care and autonomy in healthcare decision-making are associated with higher vaccination coverage.

Predictors of Infant Hepatitis B Immunization in Cameroon: Data to Inform Implementation of a Hepatitis B Birth Dose

BACKGROUND

Although most African countries offer hepatitis B immunization through a 3-dose vaccine series recommended at 6, 10 and 14 weeks of age, very few provide birth dose vaccination. In support of Cameroon's national plan to implement the birth dose vaccine in 2017, we investigated predictors of infant hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination under the current program.

METHODS

Using the 2011 Demographic Health Survey in Cameroon, we identified women with at least one living child (age 12-60 months) and information about the hepatitis B vaccine series. Vaccination rates were calculated, and logistic regression modeling was used to identify factors associated with 3-dose series completion. Changes over time were assessed with linear logistic model.

RESULTS

Among 4594 mothers analyzed, 66.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 64.1-69.3) of infants completed the hepatitis B vaccine series; however, an average 4-week delay in series initiation was noted with median dose timing at 10, 14 and 19 weeks of age. Predictors of series completion included facility delivery (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.7-2.6), household wealth (aOR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.2-3.1 comparing the highest and lowest quintiles), Christian religion (aOR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.3-2.5 compared with Muslim religion) and older maternal age (aOR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.2-1.7 for 10 year units).

CONCLUSIONS

Birth dose vaccination to reduce vertical and early childhood transmission of hepatitis B may overcome some of the obstacles to timely and complete HBV immunization in Cameroon. Increased awareness of HBV is needed among pregnant women and high-risk groups about vertical transmission, the importance of facility delivery and the effectiveness of prevention beginning with monovalent HBV vaccination at birth.

Immunisation Information Systems - useful tools for monitoring vaccination programmes in EU/EEA countries, 2016

Immunisation Information Systems (IIS) are computerised confidential population based-systems containing individual-level information on vaccines received in a given area. They benefit individuals directly by ensuring vaccination according to the schedule and they provide information to vaccine providers and public health authorities responsible for the delivery and monitoring of an immunisation programme. In 2016, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) conducted a survey on the level of implementation and functionalities of IIS in 30 European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries. It explored the governance and financial support for the systems, IIS software, system characteristics in terms of population, identification of immunisation recipients, vaccinations received, and integration with other health record systems, the use of the systems for surveillance and programme management as well as the challenges involved with implementation. The survey was answered by 27 of the 30 EU/EEA countries having either a system in production at national or subnational levels (n = 16), or being piloted (n = 5) or with plans for setting up a system in the future (n = 6). The results demonstrate the added-value of IIS in a number of areas of vaccination programme monitoring such as monitoring vaccine coverage at local geographical levels, linking individual immunisation history with health outcome data for safety investigations, monitoring vaccine effectiveness and failures and as an educational tool for both vaccine providers and vaccine recipients. IIS represent a significant way forward for life-long vaccination programme monitoring.

Measuring vaccination coverage better will help achieve disease control

Timely and accurate measurement of vaccination coverage is required to evaluate the success of vaccine programmes as well as identifying susceptible groups in order to better control disease. Estimating coverage requires knowledge of how many people are eligible for vaccination, and how many have received the vaccine. Achieving this presents a number of challenges in both high and low income settings. Investing in systems that record vaccination coverage better, as an integral part of vaccine strategies, will be a step towards better control of vaccine-preventable diseases.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine coverage achievements in low and middle-income countries 2007-2016

Introduction

Since 2007, HPV vaccine has been available to low and middle income countries (LAMIC) for small-scale ‘demonstration projects’, or national programmes. We analysed coverage achieved in HPV vaccine demonstration projects and national programmes that had completed at least 6 months of implementation between January 2007–2016.

Methods

A mapping exercise identified 45 LAMICs with HPV vaccine delivery experience. Estimates of coverage and factors influencing coverage were obtained from 56 key informant interviews, a systematic published literature search of 5 databases that identified 61 relevant full texts and 188 solicited unpublished documents, including coverage surveys. Coverage achievements were analysed descriptively against country or project/programme characteristics. Heterogeneity in data, funder requirements, and project/programme design precluded multivariate analysis.

Results

Estimates of uptake, schedule completion rates and/or final dose coverage were available from 41 of 45 LAMICs included in the study. Only 17 estimates from 13 countries were from coverage surveys, most were administrative data. Final dose coverage estimates were all over 50% with most between 70% and 90%, and showed no trend over time. The majority of delivery strategies included schools as a vaccination venue. In countries with school enrolment rates below 90%, inclusion of strategies to reach out-of-school girls contributed to obtaining high coverage compared to school-only strategies. There was no correlation between final dose coverage and estimated recurrent financial costs of delivery from cost analyses. Coverage achieved during joint delivery of HPV vaccine combined with another intervention was variable with little/no evaluation of the correlates of success.

Conclusions

This is the most comprehensive descriptive analysis of HPV vaccine coverage in LAMICs to date. It is possible to deliver HPV vaccine with excellent coverage in LAMICs. Further good quality data are needed from health facility based delivery strategies and national programmes to aid policymakers to effectively and sustainably scale-up HPV vaccination.

Timeliness of Childhood Primary Immunization and Risk Factors Related with Delays: Evidence from the 2014 Zhejiang Provincial Vaccination Coverage Survey

Background: this study aimed to assess both immunization coverage and timeliness, as well as reasons for non-vaccination, and identity the risk factors of delayed immunization, for the vaccines scheduled during the first year of life, in Zhejiang province, east China. Methods: A cluster survey among children aged 24-35 months was conducted. Demographic information and socio-economic characteristics of the selected child, the mother, and the household were collected. Immunization data were transcribed from immunization cards. Timeliness was assessed with Kaplan-Meier analysis for each vaccine given before 12 months of age, based on the time frame stipulated by the expanded program on immunization of China. Cox proportional hazard regression was applied to identify risk factors of delayed immunization. Results: A total of 2772 eligible children were surveyed. The age-appropriate coverage ranged from 25.4% (95% CI: 23.7-27.0%) for Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) to 91.3% (95% CI: 90.2-92.3%) for the first dose of oral poliomyelitis vaccine (OPV1). The most frequent reason for non-vaccination was parent's fear of adverse events of immunization. Delayed immunizations were associated with mother having a lower education level, mother having a job, delivery at home, increasing number of children per household, and having a lower household income. Conclusions: Although the timeliness of immunization has improved since 2011, necessary steps are still needed to achieve further improvement. Timeliness of immunization should be considered as another important indicator of expanded program on immunization (EPI) performance. Future interventions on vaccination coverage should take into consideration demographic and socio-economic risk factors identified in this study. The importance of adhering to the recommended schedule should be explained to parents.

Using health-facility data to assess subnational coverage of maternal and child health indicators, Kenya

Objective

To develop a systematic approach to obtain the best possible national and subnational statistics for maternal and child health coverage indicators from routine health-facility data.

Methods

Our approach aimed to obtain improved numerators and denominators for calculating coverage at the subnational level from health-facility data. This involved assessing data quality and determining adjustment factors for incomplete reporting by facilities, then estimating local target populations based on interventions with near-universal coverage (first antenatal visit and first dose of pentavalent vaccine). We applied the method to Kenya at the county level, where routine electronic reporting by facilities is in place via the district health information software system.

Findings

Reporting completeness for facility data were well above 80% in all 47 counties and the consistency of data over time was good. Coverage of the first dose of pentavalent vaccine, adjusted for facility reporting completeness, was used to obtain estimates of the county target populations for maternal and child health indicators. The country and national statistics for the four-year period 2012/13 to 2015/16 showed good consistency with results of the 2014 Kenya demographic and health survey. Our results indicated a stagnation of immunization coverage in almost all counties, a rapid increase of facility-based deliveries and caesarean sections and limited progress in antenatal care coverage.

Conclusion

While surveys will continue to be necessary to provide population-based data, web-based information systems for health facility reporting provide an opportunity for more frequent, local monitoring of progress, in maternal and child health.

Challenges in Estimating Vaccine Coverage in Refugee and Displaced Populations: Results From Household Surveys in Jordan and Lebanon

Ensuring the sustained immunization of displaced persons is a key objective in humanitarian emergencies. Typically, humanitarian actors measure coverage of single vaccines following an immunization campaign; few measure routine coverage of all vaccines. We undertook household surveys of Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon, outside of camps, using a mix of random and respondent-driven sampling, to measure coverage of all vaccinations included in the host country's vaccine schedule. We analyzed the results with a critical eye to data limitations and implications for similar studies. Among households with a child aged 12-23 months, 55.1% of respondents in Jordan and 46.6% in Lebanon were able to produce the child's EPI card. Only 24.5% of Syrian refugee children in Jordan and 12.5% in Lebanon were fully immunized through routine vaccination services (having received from non-campaign sources: measles, polio 1-3, and DPT 1-3 in Jordan and Lebanon, and BCG in Jordan). Respondents in Jordan (33.5%) and Lebanon (40.1%) reported difficulties obtaining child vaccinations. Our estimated immunization rates were lower than expected and raise serious concerns about gaps in vaccine coverage among Syrian refugees. Although our estimates likely under-represent true coverage, given the additional benefit of campaigns (not captured in our surveys), there is a clear need to increase awareness, accessibility, and uptake of immunization services. Current methods to measure vaccine coverage in refugee and displaced populations have limitations. To better understand health needs in such groups, we need research on: validity of recall methods, links between campaigns and routine immunization programs, and improved sampling of hard-to-reach populations.

GridSample: an R package to generate household survey primary sampling units (PSUs) from gridded population data

BACKGROUND

Household survey data are collected by governments, international organizations, and companies to prioritize policies and allocate billions of dollars. Surveys are typically selected from recent census data; however, census data are often outdated or inaccurate. This paper describes how gridded population data might instead be used as a sample frame, and introduces the R GridSample algorithm for selecting primary sampling units (PSU) for complex household surveys with gridded population data. With a gridded population dataset and geographic boundary of the study area, GridSample allows a two-step process to sample "seed" cells with probability proportionate to estimated population size, then "grows" PSUs until a minimum population is achieved in each PSU. The algorithm permits stratification and oversampling of urban or rural areas. The approximately uniform size and shape of grid cells allows for spatial oversampling, not possible in typical surveys, possibly improving small area estimates with survey results.

RESULTS

We replicated the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in GridSample by sampling the WorldPop 2010 UN-adjusted 100 m × 100 m gridded population dataset, stratifying by Rwanda's 30 districts, and oversampling in urban areas. The 2010 Rwanda DHS had 79 urban PSUs, 413 rural PSUs, with an average PSU population of 610 people. An equivalent sample in GridSample had 75 urban PSUs, 405 rural PSUs, and a median PSU population of 612 people. The number of PSUs differed because DHS added urban PSUs from specific districts while GridSample reallocated rural-to-urban PSUs across all districts.

CONCLUSIONS

Gridded population sampling is a promising alternative to typical census-based sampling when census data are moderately outdated or inaccurate. Four approaches to implementation have been tried: (1) using gridded PSU boundaries produced by GridSample, (2) manually segmenting gridded PSU using satellite imagery, (3) non-probability sampling (e.g. random-walk, "spin-the-pen"), and random sampling of households. Gridded population sampling is in its infancy, and further research is needed to assess the accuracy and feasibility of gridded population sampling. The GridSample R algorithm can be used to forward this research agenda.

Evaluating Childhood Vaccination Coverage of NIP Vaccines: Coverage Survey versus Zhejiang Provincial Immunization Information System

Vaccination coverage in Zhejiang province, east China, is evaluated through repeated coverage surveys. The Zhejiang provincial immunization information system (ZJIIS) was established in 2004 with links to all immunization clinics. ZJIIS has become an alternative to quickly assess the vaccination coverage. To assess the current completeness and accuracy on the vaccination coverage derived from ZJIIS, we compared the estimates from ZJIIS with the estimates from the most recent provincial coverage survey in 2014, which combined interview data with verified data from ZJIIS. Of the enrolled 2772 children in the 2014 provincial survey, the proportions of children with vaccination cards and registered in ZJIIS were 94.0% and 87.4%, respectively. Coverage estimates from ZJIIS were systematically higher than the corresponding estimates obtained through the survey, with a mean difference of 4.5%. Of the vaccination doses registered in ZJIIS, 16.7% differed from the date recorded in the corresponding vaccination cards. Under-registration in ZJIIS significantly influenced the coverage estimates derived from ZJIIS. Therefore, periodic coverage surveys currently provide more complete and reliable results than the estimates based on ZJIIS alone. However, further improvement of completeness and accuracy of ZJIIS will likely allow more reliable and timely estimates in future.

Comparison of inflation of third dose diphtheria tetanus pertussis (DTP3) administrative coverage to other vaccine antigens

Third dose diphtheria tetanus pertussis (DTP3) administrative coverage is a commonly used indicator for immunization program performance, although studies have demonstrated data quality issues with administrative DTP3 coverage. It is possible that administrative coverage for DTP3 may be inflated more than for other antigens. To examine this, theory, we compiled immunization coverage estimates from recent country surveys (n=71) and paired these with corresponding administrative coverage estimates, by country and cohort year, for DTP3 and 4 other antigens. Median administrative coverage was higher than survey estimates of coverage for all antigens (median differences from 26 to 30%), however this difference was similar for DTP3 as for all other antigens. These findings were consistent when countries were stratified by income level and eligibility for Gavi funding. Our findings demonstrate that while country administrative coverage estimates tend to be higher than survey estimates, DTP3 administrative coverage is not inflated more than other antigens.

Comparison of administrative and survey data for estimating vitamin A supplementation and deworming coverage of children under five years of age in Sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVE

To compare administrative coverage data with results from household coverage surveys for vitamin A supplementation (VAS) and deworming campaigns conducted during 2010-2015 in 12 African countries.

METHODS

Paired t-tests examined differences between administrative and survey coverage for 52 VAS and 34 deworming dyads. Independent t-tests measured VAS and deworming coverage differences between data sources for door-to-door and fixed-site delivery strategies and VAS coverage differences between 6- to 11-month and 12- to 59-month age group.

RESULTS

For VAS, administrative coverage was higher than survey estimates in 47 of 52 (90%) campaign rounds, with a mean difference of 16.1% (95% CI: 9.5-22.7; P < 0.001). For deworming, administrative coverage exceeded survey estimates in 31 of 34 (91%) comparisons, with a mean difference of 29.8% (95% CI: 16.9-42.6; P < 0.001). Mean ± SD differences in coverage between administrative and survey data were 12.2% ± 22.5% for the door-to-door delivery strategy and 25.9% ± 24.7% for the fixed-site model (P = 0.06). For deworming, mean ± SD differences in coverage between data sources were 28.1% ± 43.5% and 33.1% ± 17.9% for door-to-door and fixed-site distribution, respectively (P = 0.64). VAS administrative coverage was higher than survey estimates in 37 of 49 (76%) comparisons for the 6- to 11-month age group and 45 of 48 (94%) comparisons for the 12- to 59-month age group.

CONCLUSION

Reliance on health facility data alone for calculating VAS and deworming coverage may mask low coverage and prevent measures to improve programmes. Countries should periodically validate administrative coverage estimates with population-based methods.

Assessing age-dependent susceptibility to measles in Japan

BACKGROUND

Routine vaccination against measles in Japan started in 1978. Whereas measles elimination was verified in 2015, multiple chains of measles transmission were observed in 2016. We aimed to reconstruct the age-dependent susceptibility to measles in Japan so that future vaccination strategies can be elucidated.

METHODS

An epidemiological model was used to quantify the age-dependent immune fraction using datasets of vaccination coverage and seroepidemiological survey. The second dose was interpreted in two different scenarios, i.e., booster and random shots. The effective reproduction number, the average number of secondary cases generated by a single infected individual, and the age at infection were explored using the age-dependent transmission model and the next generation matrix.

RESULTS

While the herd immunity threshold of measles likely ranges from 90% to 95%, assuming that the basic reproductive number ranges from 10 to 20, the estimated immune fraction in Japan was below those thresholds in 2016, despite the fact that the estimates were above 80% for all ages. If the second dose completely acted as the booster shot, a proportion immune above 90% was achieved only among those aged 5years or below in 2016. Alternatively, if the second dose was randomly distributed regardless of primary vaccination status, a proportion immune over 90% was achieved among those aged below 25years. The effective reproduction number was estimated to range from 1.50 to 3.01 and from 1.50 to 3.00, respectively, for scenarios 1 and 2 in 2016; if the current vaccination schedule were continued, the reproduction number is projected to range from 1.50 to 3.01 and 1.39 to 2.78, respectively, in 2025.

CONCLUSION

Japan continues to be prone to imported cases of measles. Supplementary vaccination among adults aged 20-49years would be effective if the chains of transmission continue to be observed in that age group.

Mapping information exposure on social media to explain differences in HPV vaccine coverage in the United States

BACKGROUND

Together with access, acceptance of vaccines affects human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine coverage, yet little is known about media's role. Our aim was to determine whether measures of information exposure derived from Twitter could be used to explain differences in coverage in the United States.

METHODS

We conducted an analysis of exposure to information about HPV vaccines on Twitter, derived from 273.8 million exposures to 258,418 tweets posted between 1 October 2013 and 30 October 2015. Tweets were classified by topic using machine learning methods. Proportional exposure to each topic was used to construct multivariable models for predicting state-level HPV vaccine coverage, and compared to multivariable models constructed using socioeconomic factors: poverty, education, and insurance. Outcome measures included correlations between coverage and the individual topics and socioeconomic factors; and differences in the predictive performance of the multivariable models.

RESULTS

Topics corresponding to media controversies were most closely correlated with coverage (both positively and negatively); education and insurance were highest among socioeconomic indicators. Measures of information exposure explained 68% of the variance in one dose 2015 HPV vaccine coverage in females (males: 63%). In comparison, models based on socioeconomic factors explained 42% of the variance in females (males: 40%).

CONCLUSIONS

Measures of information exposure derived from Twitter explained differences in coverage that were not explained by socioeconomic factors. Vaccine coverage was lower in states where safety concerns, misinformation, and conspiracies made up higher proportions of exposures, suggesting that negative representations of vaccines in the media may reflect or influence vaccine acceptance.

Auditing the Immunization Data Quality from Routine Reports in Shangyu District, East China

Objective: To evaluate the immunization data quality in Shangyu District, East China. Methods: An audit for immunization data for the year 2014 was conducted in 20 vaccination clinics of Shangyu District. The consistency of immunization data was estimated by verification factors (VFs), which was the proportion of vaccine doses reported as being administered that could be verified by written documentation at vaccination clinics. The quality of monitoring systems was evaluated using the quality index (QI). Results: The VFs of 20 vaccine doses ranged from 0.94 to 1.04 at the district level. The VFs for the 20 vaccination clinics ranged from 0.57 to 1.07. The VFs for Shangyu District was 0.98. The mean of total QI score of the 20 vaccination clinics was 80.32%. A significant correlation between the VFs of the 3rd dose of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis combined vaccine (DTP) and QI scores was observed at the vaccination clinic level. Conclusions: Deficiencies in data consistency and immunization reporting practice in Shangyu District were observed. Targeted measures are suggested to improve the quality of the immunization reporting system in vaccination clinics with poor data consistency.