Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Toward recovery in schizophrenia: Current concepts, findings, and future research directions

Schizophrenia was initially defined as "dementia praecox" by E. Kraepelin, which implies progressive deterioration. However, recent studies have revealed that early effective intervention may lead to social and functional recovery in schizophrenia. In this review, we provide an overview of current concepts in schizophrenia and pathophysiological hypotheses. In addition, we present recent findings from clinical and basic research on schizophrenia. Recent neuroimaging and neurophysiological studies have consistently revealed specific biological differences in the structure and function of the brain in those with schizophrenia. From a basic research perspective, to determine the essential pathophysiology underlying schizophrenia, it is crucial that findings from all lines of inquiry-induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived neural cells from patients, murine models expressing genetic mutations identified in patients, and patient clinical data-be integrated to contextualize the analysis results. However, the findings remain insufficient to serve as a diagnostic tool or a biomarker for predicting schizophrenia-related outcomes. Collaborations to conduct clinical research based on the patients' and their families' values are just beginning, and further development is expected.

Role of polygenic and environmental factors in the co-occurrence of depression and psychosis symptoms: a network analysis

Depression and psychosis are often comorbid; they also have overlapping genetic and environmental risk factors, including trauma and area-level exposures. The present study aimed to advance understanding of this comorbidity via a network approach, by (1) identifying bridge nodes that connect clusters of lifetime depression and psychosis symptoms and (2) evaluating the influence of polygenic and environmental risk factors in these symptoms. This study included data from European ancestry participants in UK Biobank, a large population-based sample (N = 77,650). In Step 1, a network model identified bridge nodes between lifetime symptoms of depression and psychosis and functional impairment. In Step 2, genetic and environmental risk factors were incorporated to examine the degree to which symptoms associated with polygenic risk scores for depression and schizophrenia, lifetime exposure to trauma and area-level factors (including deprivation, air pollution and greenspace). Feelings of worthlessness, beliefs in unreal conspiracy against oneself, depression impairment and psychosis impairment emerged as bridges between depression and psychosis symptoms. Polygenic risk scores for depression and schizophrenia were predominantly linked with depression and psychosis impairment, respectively, rather than with specific symptoms. Cumulative trauma emerged as a bridge node associating deprivation with feelings of worthlessness and beliefs in unreal conspiracy, indicating that the experience of trauma is prominently linked with the co-occurrence of depression and psychosis symptoms related to negative views of oneself and others. These key symptoms and risk factors provide insights into the lifetime co-occurrence of depression and psychosis.

Economic burden of sickle cell disease in Brazil

Background

Sickle cell disease (SCD) may cause several impacts to patients and the whole society. About 4% of the population has the sickle cell trait in Brazil, and 60,000 to 100,000 have SCD. However, despite recognizing the significant burden of disease, little is known about SCD costs.

Objective

To estimate SCD societal costs based on disease burden modelling, under Brazilian societal perspective.

Methods

A disease burden model was built considering the societal perspective and a one-year time horizon, including direct medical and indirect costs (morbidity and mortality). The sum of life lost and disability years was considered to estimate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Data from a public database (DATASUS) and the prevalence obtained from literature or medical experts were used to define complications prevalence and duration. Costs were defined using data from the Brazilian public healthcare system table of procedures and medications (SIGTAP) and the human capital method.

Results

Annual SCD cost was 413,639,180 USD. Indirect cost accounted for the majority of burden (70.1% of the total; 290,158,365 USD vs 123,480,816 USD). Standard of care and chronic complications were the main source of direct costs among adults, while acute conditions were the main source among children. Vaso-occlusive crisis represented the complication with the highest total cost per year in both populations, 11,400,410 USD among adults and 11,510,960 USD among children.

Conclusions

SCD management may impose an important economic burden on Brazilian society that may reach more than 400 million USD per year.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Management of fracture-related infection in low resource settings: how applicable are the current consensus guidelines?

The global burden of fracture-related infection (FRI) is likely to be found in countries with limited healthcare resources and strategies are needed to ensure the best available practice is context appropriate. This study has two main aims: (i) to assess the applicability of recently published expert guidance from the FRI consensus groups on the diagnosis and management of FRI to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs); (ii) to summarise the available evidence on FRI, with consideration for strategies applicable to low resource settings.

Data related to the International Consensus Meeting Orthopaedic Trauma Work Group and the International Fracture Related Infection Consensus Group FRI guidelines were collected including panel membership, country of origin, language of publication, open access status and impact factor of the journal of publication. The recommendations and guidelines were then summarised with specific consideration for relevance and applicability to LMICs. Barriers to implementation were explored within a group of LMIC residents and experienced workers.

The authorship, evidence base and reach of the FRI consensus guidelines lack representation from low resource settings. The majority of authors (78.5–100%) are based in high-income countries and there are no low-income country collaborators listed in any of the papers. All papers are in English.

The FRI consensus guidelines give a clear set of principles for the optimum management of FRI. Many of these – including the approach to diagnosis, multidisciplinary team working and some elements of surgical management – are achievable in low resource settings. Current evidence suggests that it is important that a core set of principles is prioritised but robust evidence for this is lacking. There are major organisational and infrastructure obstacles in LMICs that will make any standardisation of FRI diagnosis or management challenging. The detail of how FRI consensus principles should be applied in low resource settings requires further work.

The important work presented in the current FRI consensus guidelines is relevant to low resource settings. However, leadership, collaboration, creativity and innovation will be needed to implement these strategies for communities who need it the most.

Cost-effectiveness evaluation of different control strategies for Clonorchis sinensis infection in a high endemic area of China: A modelling study

Clonorchiasis is an important food-borne parasitic disease caused by Clonorchis sinensis infection. The evaluation of long-term cost-effectiveness of control strategies is important for disease control and prevention. The present study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the three recommended strategies (i.e., WHO, Chinese and Guangdong strategies) and different combinations of commonly used measures (i.e., preventive chemotherapy, information, education, and communication (IEC) and environmental improvement) on clonorchiasis. The study area, Fusha town in Guangdong Province, was a typical high endemic area in China. The analysis was based on a multi-group transmission model of C. sinensis infection. We set the intervention duration for 10 years and post-intervention period for 50 years. The corresponding costs and DALYs were estimated. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) less than 1/5 of the willingness-to-pay threshold were identified as highly cost-effective strategies. The optimal control strategy was obtained using the next best comparator method. The ICERs of Guangdong strategy were $172 (95% CI: $143-$230) US for praziquantel and $106 (95% CI: $85-$143) US for albendazole, suggesting the highest cost-effectiveness among the three recommended strategies. For praziquantel, 470 sets of control strategies were identified as highly cost-effective strategies for achieving infection control (prevalence<5%). The optimal strategy consisted of chemotherapy targeted on at-risk population, IEC and environmental improvement, with coverages all being 100%, and with the ICER of $202 (95% CI: $168-$271) US. The results for transmission control (prevalence<1%) and albendazole were obtained with the same procedures. The findings may help to develop control policies for C. sinensis infection in high endemic areas. Moreover, the method adopted is applicable for assessment of optimal strategies in other endemic areas.

Clonorchiasis, a food-borne trematodiases, affects millions of people in Asia. Highly cost-effective control strategies are critical for its control. Previous studies considering the economic evaluation of control strategies were rare, mostly based on interventions in practical, and not capable of evaluating long-term cost-effectiveness of strategies with possible combinations of control measures or under various coverages. Based on a dynamic, multi-group transmission model, we simulated different control strategies in a high clonorchiasis endemic area, and evaluated their cost-effectiveness. Among the three recommended strategies (i.e., WHO, Chinese and Guangdong strategies), the Guangdong strategy was the most cost-effective. For praziquantel, 470 sets of control strategies were identified as highly cost-effective strategies for achieving infection control (prevalence<5%) among the strategies of possible combinations of the three common measures (i.e., preventive chemotherapy, information, education, and communication (IEC) and environmental modification). The optimal strategy consisted of chemotherapy targeted on at-risk population, IEC and environmental improvement, with coverages all being 100%. The results for transmission control (prevalence<1%) and albendazole were obtained with the same procedures. The numerical results may help to develop control strategies for C. sinensis infection in high endemic areas. The methodology is applicable for other different endemic areas.

The Global Campaign turns 18: a brief review of its activities and achievements

The Global Campaign against Headache, as a collaborative activity with the World Health Organization (WHO), was formally launched in Copenhagen in March 2004. In the month it turns 18, we review its activities and achievements, from initial determination of its strategic objectives, through partnerships and project management, knowledge acquisition and awareness generation, to evidence-based proposals for change justified by cost-effectiveness analysis.

Cost-effectiveness of a medication event monitoring system for tuberculosis management in Morocco

Background

Digital health technologies have been used to enhance adherence to TB medication, but the cost-effectiveness remains unclear.

Methods

We used the real data from the study conducted from April 2014 to December 2020 in Morocco using a smart pillbox with a web-based medication monitoring system, called Medication Event Monitoring Systems (MEMS). Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using a decision analysis model including Markov model for Multi-drug resistant (MDR) TB from the health system perspective. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. Two-way sensitive analysis was done for the treatment success rate between MEMS and standard of care.

Results

The average total per-patient health system costs for treating a new TB patient under MEMS versus standard of care were $398.70 and $155.70, respectively. The MEMS strategy would reduce the number of drug-susceptible TB cases by 0.17 and MDR-TB cases by 0.01 per patient over five years. The ICER of MEMS was $434/DALY averted relative to standard of care, and was most susceptible to the TB treatment success rate of both strategies followed by the managing cost of MEMS.

Conclusion

MEMS is considered cost-effective for managing infectious active TB in Morocco.

Can a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Tax on Food also Be Healthy and Equitable? A Systemised Review and Modelling Study from Aotearoa New Zealand

Policies to mitigate climate change are essential. The objective of this paper was to estimate the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) food taxes and assess whether such a tax could also have health benefits in Aotearoa NZ. We undertook a systemised review on GHG food taxes to inform four tax scenarios, including one combined with a subsidy. These scenarios were modelled to estimate lifetime impacts on quality-adjusted health years (QALY), health inequities by ethnicity, GHG emissions, health system costs and food costs to the individual. Twenty-eight modelling studies on food tax policies were identified. Taxes resulted in decreased consumption of the targeted foods (e.g., -15.4% in beef/ruminant consumption, N = 12 studies) and an average decrease of 8.3% in GHG emissions (N = 19 studies). The "GHG weighted tax on all foods" scenario had the largest health gains and costs savings (455,800 QALYs and NZD 8.8 billion), followed by the tax-fruit and vegetable subsidy scenario (410,400 QALYs and NZD 6.4 billion). All scenarios were associated with reduced GHG emissions and higher age standardised per capita QALYs for Māori. Applying taxes that target foods with high GHG emissions has the potential to be effective for reducing GHG emissions and to result in co-benefits for population health.

Pediatric asthma in developing countries: challenges and future directions

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Asthma continues to be a significant health problem worldwide, and epidemiological studies in the last few decades have consistently shown a marked increase in childhood asthma prevalence. The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) showed significant geographic variability in prevalence, and larger associations with morbidity and mortality in low-middle income countries (LMICs). The Global Burden of Disease estimated that 420,000 deaths occurred globally from asthma in 2016, and although asthma prevalence is higher in high-income countries, most asthma-related mortality occurs in LMICs. The general health of a population is measured, in part, by the under-5 childhood death rate, and developing countries still account for more than 80 percentage of child deaths in the world, highlighting the need for efforts to reduce disease burden in these regions.

RECENT FINDINGS

The burden of asthma is higher in developing countries and underserved populations. Despite this, LMICs still face many barriers to appropriate allergy and asthma care, resulting in significant morbidity, potentially preventable asthma deaths, and economic consequences. A 2017 survey of 112 countries participating in the Global Asthma Network found that only 26 countries (23%) had a national asthma plan for children, with a lower proportion in LMICs.

SUMMARY

The rising asthma prevalence and high asthma-related death rates in LMICs suggest that global efforts in improving asthma diagnosis and care are not reaching the most vulnerable communities. Lack of appropriate diagnosis, availability of viable treatment options, and access to specialised care still remain a challenge in many parts of the world. Though barriers to achieving better outcomes differ in specific populations, many LMICs share similar barriers relating to accessibility.

Sex differences in the blood-brain barrier: Implications for mental health

Prevalence of mental disorders, including major depressive disorder (MDD), bipolar disorder (BD) and schizophrenia (SZ) are increasing at alarming rates in our societies. Growing evidence points toward major sex differences in these conditions, and high rates of treatment resistance support the need to consider novel biological mechanisms outside of neuronal function to gain mechanistic insights that could lead to innovative therapies. Blood-brain barrier alterations have been reported in MDD, BD and SZ. Here, we provide an overview of sex-specific immune, endocrine, vascular and transcriptional-mediated changes that could affect neurovascular integrity and possibly contribute to the pathogenesis of mental disorders. We also identify pitfalls in current literature and highlight promising vascular biomarkers. Better understanding of how these adaptations can contribute to mental health status is essential not only in the context of MDD, BD and SZ but also cardiovascular diseases and stroke which are associated with higher prevalence of these conditions.

Adolescent anxiety and depression: burden of disease study in 53,894 secondary school pupils in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

Prevalence rates of anxiety and depression in adolescence are rising markedly in early adolescence. It is important to quantify the non-fatal disease burden of anxiety and depression, such that early interventions can be well targeted, and resources can be allocated in a just and optimal way. This study aimed to estimate the non-fatal disease burden of anxiety and depression with and without suicidal ideation in girls and boys aged 13, 14, and 15 years.

METHODS

Participants were 53,894 secondary school pupils who completed health questionnaires between September 2018 and July 2019. A design-based approach was used for complex survey data with post-stratification weights and taking clustering at school-level into account. At individual level, disability weights (DWs) were calculated for each disorder. At population level, DWs were multiplied by the point-prevalence per one thousand population of the respective disorders to compute years lived with disability (YLD). DWs and YLD of anxiety and depression were calculated with and without adjustment for comorbid eating disorders, substance use disorders and somatic illnesses.

RESULTS

The unadjusted DW of depression with suicidal ideation (0.30) was greater than without suicidal ideation (0.26), and both were greater than the DW of anxiety (0.24). A similar ranking was obtained after adjusting for comorbidities. At population level, where the prevalence of the disorders come into play, the YLD disease burden was greatest for anxiety, followed by depression with suicidal ideation and depression without suicidal ideation with 17.40, 9.85, and 5.28 YLD per one thousand population, unadjusted for comorbidities. This pattern was the same after adjustment, but then the total YLD of depression with and without suicidal ideation was similar to the YLD of anxiety (12.47 and 12.46, respectively). Girls showed a significantly greater YLD burden of anxiety and depression than boys, but no differences were found between different age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

From an individual clinical perspective, depression, especially when accompanied by suicidal ideation, was identified as a major health concern, especially in girls. From a public health perspective, both anxiety and depression, especially when accompanied by suicidal ideation, were identified as major drivers of disease burden, again most notably in girls.

A systematic literature review of disability weights measurement studies: evolution of methodological choices

Background

The disability weight is an essential factor to estimate the healthy time that is lost due to living with a certain state of illness. A 2014 review showed a considerable variation in methods used to derive disability weights. Since then, several sets of disability weights have been developed. This systematic review aimed to provide an updated and comparative overview of the methodological design choices and surveying techniques that have been used in disability weights measurement studies and how they evolved over time.

Methods

A literature search was conducted in multiple international databases (early-1990 to mid-2021). Records were screened according to pre-defined eligibility criteria. The quality of the included disability weights measurement studies was assessed using the Checklist for Reporting Valuation Studies (CREATE) instrument. Studies were collated by characteristics and methodological design approaches. Data extraction was performed by one reviewer and discussed with a second.

Results

Forty-six unique disability weights measurement studies met our eligibility criteria. More than half (n = 27; 59%) of the identified studies assessed disability weights for multiple ill-health outcomes. Thirty studies (65%) described the health states using disease-specific descriptions or a combination of a disease-specific descriptions and generic-preference instruments. The percentage of studies obtaining health preferences from a population-based panel increased from 14% (2004–2011) to 32% (2012–2021). None of the disability weight studies published in the past 10 years used the annual profile approach. Most studies performed panel-meetings to obtain disability weights data.

Conclusions

Our review reveals that a methodological uniformity between national and GBD disability weights studies increased, especially from 2010 onwards. Over years, more studies used disease-specific health state descriptions in line with those of the GBD study, panel from general populations, and data from web-based surveys and/or household surveys. There is, however, a wide variation in valuation techniques that were used to derive disability weights at national-level and that persisted over time.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-022-00860-z.

Disability Weights Estimates From India in 2018: Measurements From Community Members From Two Distinct States of India

Background

India is undergoing a rapid demographic and epidemiologic transition. Thus demanding prioritization of diseases based on burden estimation is befitting our cultural diversity. Disability weights (DWs) by Global burden of disease (GBD) studies may not be representative. Hence, a study was conducted to estimate state-specific disability weights to capture the community health perceptions that included urban–rural settings as well as different socio-economic and literacy levels.

Methods

A total of 2,055 community members (participants) from two distinct states of India, Odisha and Telangana, were interviewed to assign disability weights to the selected 14 health states based on the state burden and relevance. Each health state was described to the participants using pictorial representations of the health states and valuated using visual analog scale and card sort methods.

Results

We noted that DWs in Odisha ranged from 0.32 (0.30–0.34) for upper limb fracture due to road traffic accident (least severe) to 0.90 (0.88–0.93) for breast cancer (most severe) among the 14 health states. While, in Telangana, diarrhea was considered least severe [DW = 0.22 (0.19–0.24)] and breast cancer remained most severe [DW = 0.85 (0.83–0.88)] as in Odisha. Marked difference in the DWs for other health states was also seen. Further, on comparison of community weights with GBD weights using Spearman correlation, we observed a low correlation (ρ = 0.104).

Conclusion

Our study provides community-based findings that show how participants valued noncommunicable diseases higher than short-term ailments or infectious diseases. Additionally, the low correlation between GBD also suggests the need for local disability weights rather than universal acceptance. We therefore recommend that decisions in policy-making, especially for resource allocation and priority setting, need to be based not only on expert opinion but also include community in accordance with high scientific standards.

Modelling the potential health and economic benefits of reducing population sitting time in Australia

Background

Strong evidence indicates that excessive time spent sitting (sedentary behaviour) is detrimentally associated with multiple chronic diseases. Sedentary behaviour is prevalent among adults in Australia and has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimating the potential health benefits and healthcare cost saving associated with reductions in population sitting time could be useful for the development of public health initiatives.

Methods

A sedentary behaviour model was developed and incorporated into an existing proportional, multi-state, life table Markov model (ACE-Obesity Policy model). This model simulates the 2019 Australian population (age 18 years and above) and estimates the incidence, prevalence and mortality of five diseases associated with sedentary behaviour (type 2 diabetes, stroke, endometrial, breast and colorectal cancer). Key model inputs included population sitting time estimates from the Australian National Health Survey 2014–2015, healthcare cost data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2015) and relative risk estimates assessed by conducting literature reviews and meta-analyses. Scenario analyses estimated the potential change in disease incidence as a result of changes in population sitting time. This, in turn, resulted in estimated improvements in long term health outcomes (Health-adjusted life years (HALYs)) and healthcare cost-savings.

Results

According to the model, if all Australian adults sat no more than 4 h per day, the total HALYs gained would be approximately 17,211 with health care cost savings of approximately A$185 million over one year. Under a more feasible scenario, where sitting time was reduced in adults who sit 4 or more hours per day by approximately 36 min per person per day (based on the results of the Stand Up Victoria randomised controlled trial), potential HALYs gained were estimated to be 3,670 and healthcare cost saving could reach A$39 million over one year.

Conclusions

Excessive sedentary time results in considerable population health burden in Australia. This paper describes the development of the first Australian sedentary behaviour model that can be used to predict the long term consequences of interventions targeted at reducing sedentary behaviour through reductions in sitting time. These estimates may be used by decision makers when prioritising healthcare resources and investing in preventative public health initiatives.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12966-022-01276-2.

Risk factor targeting for vaccine prioritization during the COVID-19 pandemic

A key public health question during any disease outbreak when limited vaccine is available is who should be prioritized for early vaccination. Most vaccine prioritization analyses only consider variation in risk of infection and death by a single risk factor, such as age. We provide a more granular approach with stratification by demographics, risk factors, and location. We use this approach to compare the impact of different COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies on COVID-19 cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over the first 6 months of vaccine rollout, using California as a case example. We estimate the proportion of cases, deaths and DALYs averted relative to no vaccination for strategies prioritizing vaccination by a single risk factor and by multiple risk factors (e.g. age, location). When targeting by a single risk factor, we find that age-based targeting averts the most deaths (62% for 5 million individuals vaccinated) and DALYs (38%) and targeting essential workers averts the least deaths (31%) and DALYs (24%) over the first 6 months of rollout. However, targeting by two or more risk factors simultaneously averts up to 40% more DALYs. Our findings highlight the potential value of multiple-risk-factor targeting of vaccination against COVID-19 and other infectious diseases, but must be balanced with feasibility for policy.

A pilot choral intervention in individuals with schizophrenia-spectrum conditions; Singing away loneliness

Social disconnection is associated with poor outcome and long-term disability in individuals with schizophrenia-spectrum conditions (SCZ) but social isolation is not typically a target for treatment. Singing together has long been shown to promote unique group cohesion and improve sense of well-being across the lifespan. Accordingly, we devised a novel choral intervention to examine the potential efficacy of this low-burden social intervention strategy designed to reduce loneliness in SCZ. Seventeen SCZ participated in a weekly, 1-hr choir group for 8 weeks. At pre- and post-intervention, we examined symptoms, loneliness, stress, and face recognition. Choral intervention led to significant reductions in scores for loneliness, the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) and the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II). No significant changes were observed in scores for the Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS), the Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms (SAPS), face recognition, or the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS). Diminished loneliness was inversely correlated with the number of sessions attended. Participants judged the choir intervention to be acceptable and enjoyable. Reduced loneliness and symptom improvement after 8 weeks of intervention in SCZ suggest that choral intervention presents an enjoyable and low-burden opportunity to collaborate in a group setting for isolated individuals and thus may serve as a beneficial adjunct in a multi-arm intervention strategy for alleviating symptom distress and loneliness.

Trends in the burden of stroke in Mexico: A national and subnational analysis of the global burden of disease 1990-2019

Background

Scarce epidemiological information on stroke in Mexico impedes evidence-based decisions and debilitates the design of effective prevention programmes at the local level.

Methods

Ecological and secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease national and subnational data for Mexico, from 1990 to 2019. We analysed the incidence, prevalence, deaths, premature mortality, disability, and DALYs due to cerebrovascular disease included to identify the differences in the burden of stroke in Mexico by type of stroke (ischaemic [IS], intracerebral haemorrhage [ICH] and subarachnoid haemorrhage [SAH]), sex, age groups, and state levels ordered by quartiles of Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Means and 95% uncertainty intervals are reported.

Findings

Reductions in all metrics of total stroke occurred during the 1990 to 2005 period; however, this declining trend was followed up by stagnation of progress from 2006 to 2019, except for premature mortality. This pattern of the declining trend was observed also for IS and to a lesser extent for ICH, while SAH showed no major changes during the 1990-2019 period. The magnitude of decline was higher in females for total stroke for incidence, prevalence and YLDs rates. The less developed states by SDI exhibited the lowest improvements during the period, particularly for ICH metrics.

Interpretation

The reduction in stroke burden in Mexico did not follow the same pace for all types of stroke, with regional differences by SDI and by sex. Study findings reveal the need for strengthening prevention policies to address health disparities in the burden of stroke by sex and states, within the fragmented Mexican Healthcare System.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health-related quality of life in individuals with genital herpes: a systematic review

Background

There is a significant global burden of herpes simplex virus (HSV) related genital ulcer disease yet little is known about its impact on quality of life. This systematic review aimed to identify studies that quantitatively evaluated the effect of genital herpes on various aspects of health-related quality of life.

Methods

Six databases were searched (MEDLINE, EMBASE, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Health Technology Assessment, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Web of Science Core Collection) for primary quality of life and economic evaluations of genital herpes from January 1, 2000 to January 7, 2021. Qualitative studies or those without primary data were excluded. Two authors independently extracted data from the publications. The study’s registration number with PROSPERO was CRD42021239410.

Findings

We identified 26 relevant publications: 19 presented primary quality of life data, and seven were economic evaluations. The primary studies presented a range of condition-specific tools for describing the quality of life in individuals with genital herpes, but only one study used a direct valuation that could be used to generate utility weights. All economic evaluations of HSV infection were from high-income country settings. Most (6 of 7) focused on neonatal HSV infection with utilities adopted from studies prior to 2000.

Interpretation

The extant literature on genital herpes-related quality of life is limited and requires updating. We recommend future studies be conducted in geographic- and population- diverse settings, and use preference-based condition-specific or generic-instruments to better inform economic modelling.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12955-022-01934-w.

Cost Utility of Lifelong Immunoglobulin Replacement Therapy vs Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant to Treat Agammaglobulinemia

IMPORTANCE

Lifelong immunoglobulin replacement therapy (IRT) is standard-of-care treatment for congenital agammaglobulinemia but accrues high annual costs ($30 000-$90 000 per year) and decrements to quality of life over patients' life spans. Hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) offers an alternative 1-time therapy, but has high morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost utility of IRT vs matched sibling donor (MSD) and matched unrelated donor (MUD) HSCT to treat patients with agammaglobulinemia in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This economic evaluation used Markov analysis to model the base-case scenario of a patient aged 12 months with congenital agammaglobulinemia receiving lifelong IRT vs MSD or MUD HSCT. Costs, probabilities, and quality-of-life measures were derived from the literature. Microsimulations estimated premature deaths for each strategy in a virtual cohort. One-way sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses evaluated uncertainty around parameter estimates performed from a societal perspective over a 100-year time horizon. The threshold for cost-effective care was set at $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). This study was conducted from 2020 across a 100-year time horizon.

EXPOSURES

Immunoglobulin replacement therapy vs MSD or MUD HSCT for treatment of congenital agammaglobulinemia.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) expressed in 2020 US dollars per QALY gained and premature deaths associated with each strategy.

RESULTS

In this economic evaluation of patients with congenital agammaglobulinemia, lifelong IRT cost more than HSCT ($1 512 946 compared with $563 776 [MSD] and $637 036 [MUD]) and generated similar QALYs (20.61 vs 17.25 [MSD] and 17.18 [MUD]). Choosing IRT over MSD or MUD HSCT yielded ICERs of $282 166 per QALY gained over MSD and $255 633 per QALY gained over MUD HSCT, exceeding the US willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/QALY. However, IRT prevented at least 2488 premature deaths per 10 000 microsimulations compared with HSCT. When annual IRT price was reduced from $60 145 to below $29 469, IRT became the cost-effective strategy. Findings remained robust in sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In the US, IRT is more expensive than HSCT for agammaglobulinemia treatment. The findings of this study suggest that IRT prevents more premature deaths but does not substantially increase quality of life relative to HSCT. Reducing US IRT cost by 51% to a value similar to IRT prices in countries implementing value-based pricing may render it the more cost-effective strategy.

Migraine

Migraine is a common, chronic, disorder that is typically characterized by recurrent disabling attacks of headache and accompanying symptoms, including aura. The aetiology is multifactorial with rare monogenic variants. Depression, epilepsy, stroke and myocardial infarction are comorbid diseases. Spreading depolarization probably causes aura and possibly also triggers trigeminal sensory activation, the underlying mechanism for the headache. Despite earlier beliefs, vasodilation is only a secondary phenomenon and vasoconstriction is not essential for antimigraine efficacy. Management includes analgesics or NSAIDs for mild attacks, and, for moderate or severe attacks, triptans or 5HT_1B/1D receptor agonists. Because of cardiovascular safety concerns, unreliable efficacy and tolerability issues, use of ergots to abort attacks has nearly vanished in most countries. CGRP receptor antagonists (gepants) and lasmiditan, a selective 5HT1_F receptor agonist, have emerged as effective acute treatments. Intramuscular onabotulinumtoxinA may be helpful in chronic migraine (migraine on ≥15 days per month) and monoclonal antibodies targeting CGRP or its receptor, as well as two gepants, have proven effective and well tolerated for the preventive treatment of migraine. Several neuromodulation modalities have been approved for acute and/or preventive migraine treatment. The emergence of new treatment targets and therapies illustrates the bright future for migraine management.

Associations between sociodemographic factors, health spending, disease burden, and life expectancy of older adults (70 + years old) in 22 countries in the Western Pacific Region, 1995-2019: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019

The needs of the aging populations are putting increasing burden on healthcare particularly in the Western Pacific Region (WPR), which is the home of aging economies such as Hong Kong and Japan alongside rapid increases in older people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, little is known about the associations between sociodemographic factors, disease burden, and life expectancy in WPR. The current study conducted secondary analysis on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates of populations aged 70 years and older in WPR countries between 1995 and 2019. Correlation tests, linear mixed regressions and generalized additive mixture models were run to examine the associations of interest. Unsupervised machine learning was conducted to segment the data automatically, at cluster analysis. The sociodemographic development index was found an important factor to the disease burden in terms of Years Lived with Disability (YLD) rate and mortality rate among older adults. YLD rate and mortality rate of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to different risk groups were significant contributors to higher expectation of Lost Healthy Years (LHE) and shorter life expectancy respectively in the context of rising YLD rate, particularly in LMICs. Three clusters of countries with similar characteristics were identified. NCDs were the most significant contributors to shorter life expectancy within which the time living in poor health did not improve. Better management of NCDs in aging populations should be emphasized in all countries. The country clusters may help in a more regional strategic planning.

Cost-Effectiveness of Operating on Traumatic Spinal Injuries in Low-Middle Income Countries: A Preliminary Report From a Major East African Referral Center

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVES

While the incidence of traumatic spine injury (TSI) is high in low-middle income countries (LMICs), surgery is rarely possible due to cost-prohibitive implants. The objective of this study was to conduct a preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis of operative treatment of TSI patients in a LMIC setting.

METHODS

At a tertiary hospital in Tanzania from September 2016 to May 2019, a retrospective analysis was conducted to estimate the cost-effectiveness of operative versus nonoperative treatment of TSI. Operative treatment included decompression/stabilization. Nonoperative treatment meant 3 months of bed rest. Direct costs included imaging, operating fees, surgical implants, and length of stay. Four patient scenarios were chosen to represent the heterogeneity of spine trauma: Quadriplegic, paraplegic, neurologic improvement, and neurologically intact. Disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) and incremental-cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated to determine the cost per unit benefit of operative versus nonoperative treatment. Cost/DALY averted was the primary outcome (i.e., the amount of money required to avoid losing 1 year of healthy life).

RESULTS

A total of 270 TSI patients were included (125 operative; 145 nonoperative). Operative treatment averaged $731/patient. Nonoperative care averaged $212/patient. Comparing operative versus nonoperative treatment, the incremental cost/DALY averted for each patient outcome was: quadriplegic ($112-$158/DALY averted), paraplegic ($47-$67/DALY averted), neurologic improvement ($50-$71/DALY averted), neurologically intact ($41-$58/DALY averted). Sensitivity analysis confirmed these findings without major differences.

CONCLUSIONS

This preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that the upfront costs of spine trauma surgery may be offset by a reduction in disability. LMIC governments should consider conducting more spine trauma cost-effectiveness analyses and including spine trauma surgery in universal health care.

Prescription of Anticholinergic Drugs in Patients With Schizophrenia: Analysis of Antipsychotic Prescription Patterns and Hospital Characteristics

In several clinical guidelines for schizophrenia, long-term use of anticholinergic drugs is not recommended. We investigated the characteristics of the use of anticholinergics in patients with schizophrenia by considering psychotropic prescription patterns and differences among hospitals. A cross-sectional, retrospective prescription survey at the time of discharge was conducted on 2027 patients with schizophrenia from 69 Japanese hospitals. We examined the relations among psychotropic drug prescriptions regarding anticholinergic prescription. We divided the hospitals into three groups-low rate group (LG), medium rate group (MG), and high rate group (HG)-according to their anticholinergic prescription rates, and analyzed the relationship between anticholinergic prescription rates and antipsychotic prescription. Anticholinergic drugs were prescribed to 618 patients (30.5%), and the prescription rates were significantly higher for high antipsychotic doses, antipsychotic polypharmacy, and first-generation antipsychotics (FGAs) use. The anticholinergic prescription rate varied considerably among hospitals, ranging from 0 to 66.7%, and it was significantly higher in patients with antipsychotic monotherapy, antipsychotic polypharmacy, and normal and high doses of antipsychotics in HG than in those LG and MG. The anticholinergics prescription rate in patients with second-generation antipsychotic monotherapy in HG was also significantly higher than in those LG and MG; however, the difference was no longer significant in patients with FGA monotherapy. Conclusively, in addition to high antipsychotic doses, antipsychotic polypharmacy, and FGA use, hospital characteristics influence the prescribing of anticholinergic drugs.

Socioeconomic Burden of Bloodstream Infections Caused by Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae

Background

Although infection with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) has become an urgent public health threat worldwide, the socioeconomic burden of CRE bloodstream infection (BSI) remains to be clarified.

Methods

This retrospective study included all patients infected with Escherichia coli or Klebsiella pneumoniae who were hospitalized for BSI from 2013 to 2015. Socioeconomic burden, including direct and indirect economic burden, was compared in patients infected with carbapenem-sensitive Enterobacteriaceae (CSE) and CRE following 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) to control for confounding variables.

Results

Data from 879 patients with Enterobacteriaceae BSI were evaluated, including 152 (17.3%) patients infected with CRE and 727 (82.7%) infected with CSE. PSM yielded 112 pairs of 224 patients. Median hospital length of stay did not differ significantly in the CRE and CSE groups (35 vs 29 days, P = 0.089), but in-hospital 28-day mortality rate was significantly higher in patients infected with CRE than with CSE (45.5% vs 32.1%, P = 0.040). Median direct economic burden was significantly greater in patients with CRE-BSI than with CSE-BSI during hospitalization ($24,940.1 vs 16,864.0, P = 0.017) but not during the period after infection ($10,403.4 vs 8498.0, P = 0.178). Drug expenditure accounted for the largest proportion of costs in both groups. The median disability-adjusted life year (DALY) was higher in CRE-BSI than in CSE-BSI patients, but the difference was not statistically significant (7.9 vs 6.7 years, P = 0.190). Median indirect economic burden did not differ significantly in these two groups ($3848.5 vs 1139.9, P = 0.304), although indirect economic burden increased significantly from 2013 to 2015 in patients with CRE-BSI.

Conclusion

Carbapenem resistance had a major impact on the clinical and socioeconomic burden of patients with Enterobacteriaceae BSI. The higher mortality rate in patients with CRE-BSI was associated with increased direct healthcare burden and indirect socioeconomic loss.

Global estimates of the need for rehabilitation based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rehabilitation has often been seen as a disability-specific service needed by only few of the population. Despite its individual and societal benefits, rehabilitation has not been prioritised in countries and is under-resourced. We present global, regional, and country data for the number of people who would benefit from rehabilitation at least once during the course of their disabling illness or injury.

METHODS

To estimate the need for rehabilitation, data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 were used to calculate the prevalence and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) of 25 diseases, impairments, or bespoke aggregations of sequelae that were selected as amenable to rehabilitation. All analyses were done at the country level and then aggregated to seven regions: World Bank high-income countries and the six WHO regions (ie, Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, Europe, Eastern Mediterranean, and Western Pacific).

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, 2·41 billion (95% uncertainty interval 2·34-2·50) individuals had conditions that would benefit from rehabilitation, contributing to 310 million [235-392] YLDs. This number had increased by 63% from 1990 to 2019. Regionally, the Western Pacific had the highest need of rehabilitation services (610 million people [588-636] and 83 million YLDs [62-106]). The disease area that contributed most to prevalence was musculoskeletal disorders (1·71 billion people [1·68-1·80]), with low back pain being the most prevalent condition in 134 of the 204 countries analysed.

INTERPRETATION

To our knowledge, this is the first study to produce a global estimate of the need for rehabilitation services and to show that at least one in every three people in the world needs rehabilitation at some point in the course of their illness or injury. This number counters the common view of rehabilitation as a service required by only few people. We argue that rehabilitation needs to be brought close to communities as an integral part of primary health care to reach more people in need.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Early Intervention in Psychosis services: A systematic review and narrative synthesis of the barriers and facilitators to implementation

BACKGROUND

Early intervention in psychosis (EIP) services target the early manifestation of psychosis and provide multidisciplinary care. They demonstrate effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Implementation of EIP services is inconsistent and piecemeal. This systematic review and narrative synthesis aims to identify barriers and facilitators to EIP service implementation.

METHODS

We conducted an electronic search of databases (EMBASE, Medline, Web of Science, and PsychINFO) to detect papers reporting EIP service implementation findings and associated barriers and facilitators. The search occurred between June to August 2020, and again in January 2021. Articles meeting inclusion criteria were extracted and narratively synthesized. A quality assessment was conducted using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool.

RESULTS

Twenty-three studies were selected. The most common study design was descriptive accounts of implementation. Patient age ranged varied from 14 to 35 years. We identified three barrier and facilitator domains: (a) system; (b) services; and (c) staff, and a range of subdomains. The most frequent subdomains were "funding" and "strength of collaboration and communication between EIP and outside groups and services". Associations between domains and subdomains were evident, particularly between systems and services.

CONCLUSIONS

A range of barriers and facilitators to EIP implementation exist. Some of these are generic factors germane across health systems and services, while others are specific to EIP services. A thorough prior understanding of these challenges and enablers are necessary before implementation is attempted. Accounting for these issues within local and national contexts may help predict and increase the likelihood of services' success, stability, and longevity.

A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations of Active Tuberculosis Treatments

Background: The disease burden of active tuberculosis (TB) is considerable, but systematic reviews of economic evaluations of active TB treatments are scarce. Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library databases were used to search for articles on cost-effectiveness analysis or cost-utility analysis that economically evaluated active TB treatments, which were then systematically reviewed by two independent reviewers. We extracted vital components of the included studies, such as country, population, intervention/comparator, primary outcome, values of outcomes, thresholds, model type, time horizon, and health states included in the model. Results: Seventeen studies were included in this systematic review. Thirteen dealt with interventions of medications, and the remaining four compared care strategies. The Markov model was the most commonly used tool to compare medications, whereas studies on care plans mainly used decision trees. The most commonly used primary outcome was disability-adjusted life years, followed by quality-adjusted life years. For treatment-naïve TB, the 4-month regimen was more cost-effective than the 6-month regimen mainly in low- and middle-income countries. For multidrug-resistant TB, a bedaquiline-based regimen was cost-effective. For multidrug-resistant TB, decentralized care that employed the use of home or mobile devices was more cost-effective than hospital-based centralized care in low- and middle-income countries. Conclusion: New treatment strategies to improve therapeutic outcomes by enhancing treatment adherence, such as regimens with shorter durations (2 or 4 months) and decentralized care, or new anti-TB agents (e.g., bedaquiline) have been suggested as cost-effective interventions for active TB. This review provides information on the economic evaluation of active TB from good-quality studies, thus aiding the future economic evaluation of active TB.

A case of improvement of clozapine-induced low leukocyte counts by adenine, cepharanthin and ninjin-yoei-to in a patient with treatment-resistant schizophrenia

Background

Although clozapine is the optimal drug for patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia, the drug has harmful adverse effects such as leukopenia. Adenine and cepharanthine are known to be effective for radiation- or drug-induced leukopenia. Furthermore, ninjin-yoei-to, a Chinese herbal medicine, augments the production of granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor. Thus, these drugs may be useful for clozapine-induced leukopenia.

Case presentation

A 21 years-old woman with schizophrenia was hospitalized for initiation of clozapine treatment. Despite concomitant use of adenine, cepharanthine, and lithium carbonate having activities of increasing leukocytes, a decrease in leukocyte counts occurred after the initiation of clozapine. Additional administration of ninjin-yoei-to increased leukocyte counts, which prevented the development of leukopenia.

Conclusions

This is the first case that concomitant use of adenine, cepharanthin, and ninjin-yoei-to exhibited the effectiveness of reversing the decrease in leukocytes caused by clozapine. Monitoring leukocyte counts and preventing leukopenia are essential for successful treatment with clozapine for refractory schizophrenia. These medicines may be a potential option for preventing clozapine-induced leukopenia.

Challenges for Estimating the Global Prevalence of Micronutrient Deficiencies and Related Disease Burden: A Case Study of the Global Burden of Disease Study

Information on the prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies is needed to determine related disease burden; underpin evidence-based advocacy; and design, deliver, and monitor safe, effective interventions. Assessing the global prevalence of deficiency requires a valid micronutrient status biomarker with an appropriate cutoff to define deficiency and relevant data from representative surveys across multiple locations and years. The Global Burden of Disease Study includes prevalence estimates for iodine, iron, zinc, and vitamin A deficiencies, for which recommended biomarkers and appropriate deficiency cutoffs exist. Because representative survey data are lacking, only retinol concentration is used to model vitamin A deficiency, and proxy indicators are used for the other micronutrients (goiter for iodine, hemoglobin for iron, and dietary food adequacy for zinc). Because of data limitations, complex statistical modeling is required to produce current estimates, relying on assumptions and proxies that likely understate the extent of micronutrient deficiencies and the consequent global health burden.

Comparison of antipsychotic naïve first-episode psychosis patients and healthy controls in Uganda

INTRODUCTION

The risk factors for a first episode of psychosis in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) are not well described. The study compared the association of different risk factors in patients with first-episode psychosis patients and healthy controls from an LMIC context.

METHODS

A comparative, descriptive, cross-sectional study was performed in antipsychotic naïve first-episode psychosis patients and healthy controls at the National referral hospital in Uganda. Standardized tools were used to assess sociodemographic (e.g., age, sex, socioeconomic status) and clinical (e.g., childhood trauma, quality of life) variables. First episode psychosis participants were compared to healthy controls in terms of sociodemographic and clinical variables, and logistic regression was used to determine predictors of FEP.

RESULTS

Our final sample included 198 antipsychotic naïve first-episode psychosis participants and 82 controls. Most participants were female (68.5%) with a mean age of 29.4 years. After adjusting for age and sex, FEP patients when compared to controls were less likely to be female [AOR 0.18 (95%CI 0.03-0.85; p = .031)], more likely to have experienced emotional abuse [AOR 1.30 (95%CI 1.02-1.65; p = .032)] and more likely to have a poor quality of life [AOR 0.93 (95%CI 0.89-0.97; p = .002)].

DISCUSSION

The risk factors for a first episode of psychosis in this low and middle-income population were like those described in high-income countries. Further studies on interventions to prevent the transition to psychotic disorders in this sub-groups of patients are recommended. Also, the use of specialized early intervention services in improving the quality of life needs to be evaluated.

Cost-effectiveness of a weaning food safety and hygiene programme in rural Gambia

OBJECTIVE

The main objective of the economic evaluation was to determine the cost-effectiveness of a weaning food safety and hygiene programme in reducing rates of diarrhoea compared with the control in rural Gambia.

METHODS

The public health intervention, using critical control points and motivational drivers, was evaluated in a cluster randomised controlled trial at 6- and 32-month follow-up. An economic evaluation was undertaken alongside the RCT with data collected prospectively from a societal perspective. Decision-analytic modelling was used to explore cost-effectiveness over a longer time period (4 years).

RESULTS

Direct out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure for households due to diarrhoea was large. The intervention significantly reduced reported childhood diarrhoeal episodes after 6 months (incident risk ratio = 0.40, 95% CI 0.33, 0.49) and 2 years after the intervention (incident risk ratio = 0.68, 95% CI 0.46, 1.02). The within-trial analysis found that the intervention led to total savings of 8064 dalasi 6 months after the intervention and 4224 dalasi 2 years after the intervention. Based on the model results, if the intervention is successful in maintaining the reduction in the risk of diarrhoea, the ICER is US$ 814 per DALY avoided over 4 years. This is cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that there are substantial household costs associated with diarrhoeal episodes in children. The within-trial analysis and model results suggest that the community-based approach to improving weaning food hygiene and safety is likely to be cost-effective compared with control.

Combining econometric analysis and simulation modeling to evaluate Population-Based health policies for chronic disease prevention and control

Objectives

Population-based health policies play an important role in preventing and controlling chronic disease. Policymakers need to understand both the short- and long-term impacts of different policies to optimize resource allocation. The objective of this study is to develop a framework that combines econometric analysis and simulation modeling for a comprehensive evaluation of population-based health policies.

Study design

Both econometric analysis and simulation modeling were used to evaluate the impact of a population-based health policy.

Methods

We identified a cohort of hypertensive patients from the 2011–2013 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study and fitted the data into our framework to evaluate the effectiveness of a community-based hypertension-screening program under the Essential Public Health Services (EPHS) policy on the future burden of cardiovascular disease in China.

Results

Using an econometric approach, we identified that the community-based hypertension screening program would lead to a 7.9% improvement in the rate of hypertension control. Using a validated simulation model, we further estimated that if the policy was fully implemented nationwide, it could avert 97,100 cases of myocardial infarction and 215,600 cases of stroke. The policy would cost $2131 on average to save 1 quality-adjusted life year over 10 years.

Conclusions

This study proposed a framework integrating two different methods and assessing both short- and long-term impact of a population-based health policy. Through a case study, we demonstrated that combining econometric analysis and simulation modeling could provide policymakers with a more powerful tool to evaluate health policies for controlling chronic disease.

Cost-effectiveness of paediatric surgery: an economic evaluation of World Paediatric Project surgical interventions in St. Vincent and the Grenadines (2002–2019)

Objectives

The purpose of this study is to examine the cost-effectiveness of six types of surgical interventions as part of a sustained paediatric surgical programme in St.Vincent and the Grenadines from 2002 to 2019.

Design

In this economic model, six paediatric surgical interventions (ophthalmic, orthopaedic, plastic, general, urology, neurosurgery) were compared with no surgery in a deterministic cost-effectiveness model. We assessed health benefits as averted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Costs were included from the programme perspective and measured using standard micro-costing methods. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each type of surgical intervention. Interventions with ICERs of <50% of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita were considered cost-effective. Costs are reported in 2019 US$. Univariate sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effect of uncertainty.

Results

The average cost per procedure was US$16 685 (range: US$9791.78–US$72 845.76). The cumulative discounted 18-year health impact was 5815 DALYs averted with a cost per DALY averted of US$2622. Most paediatric surgical interventions were cost-effective, yielding cost per DALY estimates less than 50% of GDP per capita of St. Vincent and the Grenadines. When undiscounted, only orthopaedic surgeries had cost per DALY more than 50% GDP per capita. When considering discounting, orthopaedic and urology surgeries exceeded the adopted threshold for cost-effectiveness.

Conclusions

We found that short-term, recurrent surgical interventions could yield substantial economic benefits in this limited resource setting. This research indicates that investment in paediatric surgical interventions is cost-effective for the majority of specialties. These findings are of clinical significance given the large burden of disease attributable to surgically treatable diseases. This work demonstrates that scaling up dedicated surgical programmes for children is a cost-effective and essential component to improve paediatric health.

Lower plasma total tau in adolescent psychosis: Involvement of the orbitofrontal cortex

Schizophrenia is thought to be a neurodevelopmental disorder with neuronal migration, differentiation and maturation disturbances. Tau is a microtubule-associated protein with a crucial role in these processes. Lower circulating tau levels have been reported in adults with schizophrenia, but this association has not been investigated in adolescent psychosis. We aimed to test the hypotheses that a) adolescents with early-onset psychosis (EOP; age of onset <18 years) display lower plasma tau concentrations compared to healthy controls, and b) among patients with psychosis, tau levels are linked to structural brain measures associated with the microtubule-associated tau (MAPT) gene and psychosis. We included 37 adolescent patients with EOP (mean age 16.4 years) and 59 adolescent healthy controls (mean age 16.2 years). We investigated putative patient-control differences in plasma total tau concentrations measured by a Single molecule array (Simoa) immunoassay. We explored the correlations between tau and selected structural brain measures based on T1-weighted MRI scans processed in FreeSurfer v6.0. We found significantly lower plasma tau concentrations in patients compared to healthy controls (p = 0.017, partial eta-squared = 0.061). Tau was not associated with antipsychotic use or the antipsychotic dosage. Among patients but not healthy controls, tau levels were positively correlated with the cortical orbitofrontal surface area (p = 0.013, R-squared = 0.24). The results are suggestive of a tau-related neurodevelopmental disturbance in adolescent psychosis.

Expanding access to newer medicines for people with type 2 diabetes in low-income and middle-income countries: a cost-effectiveness and price target analysis

BACKGROUND

For patients with type 2 diabetes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), access to newer antidiabetic drugs (eg, sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 [SGLT2] inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 [GLP-1] receptor agonists, and insulin analogues) could reduce the incidence of diabetes-related complications. We aimed to estimate price targets to pursue in negotiations for inclusion in national formularies given the addition of these novel agents to WHO's Essential Medicines List.

METHODS

We incorporated individual-level, nationally representative survey data (2006-18) from 23 678 people with diabetes in 67 LMICs into a microsimulation of cardiovascular events, heart failure, end-stage renal disease, vision loss, pressure sensation loss, hypoglycaemia requiring medical attention, and drug-specific side-effects. We estimated price targets for incremental costs of switching to newer treatments to achieve cost-effectiveness (ie, <3-times gross domestic product per disability-adjusted life-year averted) or to achieve net cost-savings when including costs of averted complications. We compared switching to SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists in place of sulfonylureas, or insulin analogues in place of human insulin, and also compared a glycaemia-agnostic pathways of adding SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists to existing therapies for people with heart disease, heart failure, or kidney disease.

FINDINGS

To achieve cost-effectiveness, SGLT2 inhibitors would need to have a median price of $224 per person per year (a 17·4% cost reduction; IQR $138-359, population-weighted across countries; mean price $257); GLP-1 receptor agonists $208 per person per year (98·3% reduction; $129-488; $240); and glargine insulin $20 per vial (31·0% reduction; $16-42; $28). To achieve net cost-savings, price targets would need to reduce by a further $9-10 to a median cost for SGLT2 inhibitors of $214 (21·4% reduction; $148-316; $245) and for GLP-1 receptor agonists to $199 per person per year (98·4% reduction; $138-294; $228); but insulin glargine remained around $20 per vial (32·4% reduction; $15-37; $26). Using SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists in a glycaemia-agnostic pathway produced a 92% reduction (SGLT2 inhibitors) and 72% reduction (GLP-1 receptor agonists) in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

INTERPRETATION

Among novel agents, SGLT2 inhibitors hold particular promise for reducing complications of diabetes and meeting common price targets, particularly when used among people with established cardiovascular or kidney disease. These findings are consistent with the choice to include SGLT2 inhibitors in the WHO Essential Medicines List.

FUNDING

Clinton Health Access Initiative.

Magnetic Seizure Therapy Compared to Electroconvulsive Therapy for Schizophrenia: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Background: Magnetic seizure therapy (MST) is a potential alternative to electroconvulsive therapy (ECT). However, reports on the use of MST for patients with schizophrenia, particularly in developing countries, which is a main indication for ECT, are limited. Methods: From February 2017 to July 2018, 79 inpatients who met the DSM-5 criteria for schizophrenia were randomized to receive 10 sessions of MST (43 inpatients) or ECT (36 inpatients) over the course of 4 weeks. At baseline and 4-week follow-up, the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and the Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS) were used to assess symptom severity and cognitive functions, respectively. Results: Seventy-one patients who completed at least half of the treatment protocol were included in the per-protocol analysis. MST generated a non-significant larger antipsychotic effect in terms of a reduction in PANSS total score [g = 0.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.30, 0.63] and response rate [relative risk (RR) = 1.41, 95% CI = 0.83-2.39]. Twenty-four participants failed to complete the cognitive assessment as a result of severe psychotic symptoms. MST showed significant less cognitive impairment over ECT in terms of immediate memory (g = 1.26, 95% CI = 0.63-1.89), language function (g =1.14, 95% CI = 0.52-1.76), delayed memory (g = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.16-1.35), and global cognitive function (g = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.45-1.68). The intention-to-treat analysis generated similar results except for the differences in delayed memory became statistically insignificant. Better baseline cognitive performance predicted MST and ECT response. Conclusions: Compared to bitemporal ECT with brief pulses and age-dose method, MST had similar antipsychotic efficacy with fewer cognitive impairments, indicating that MST is a promising alternative to ECT as an add-on treatment for schizophrenia. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT02746965.

Extracorporeal Cardiac Shock Waves Therapy Improves the Function of Endothelial Progenitor Cells After Hypoxia Injury via Activating PI3K/Akt/eNOS Signal Pathway

Background: Extracorporeal cardiac shock waves (ECSW) have great potential in the treatment of coronary heart disease. Endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) are a class of pluripotent progenitor cells derived from bone marrow or peripheral blood, which have the capacity to migrate to ischemic myocardium and differentiate into mature endothelial cells and play an important role in neovascularization and endothelial repair. In this study, we investigated whether ECSW therapy can improve EPCs dysfunction and apoptosis induced by hypoxia and explored the underlying mechanisms.

Methods: EPCs were separated from ApoE gene knockout rat bone marrow and identified using flow cytometry and fluorescence staining. EPCs were used to produce in vitro hypoxia-injury models which were then divided into six groups: Control, Hypoxia, Hypoxia + ECSW, Hypoxia + LY294002 + ECSW, Hypoxia + MK-2206 + ECSW, and Hypoxia + L-NAME + ECSW. EPCs from the Control, Hypoxia, and Hypoxia + ECSW groups were used in mRNA sequencing reactions. mRNA and protein expression levels were analyzed using qRT-PCR and western blot analysis, respectively. Proliferation, apoptosis, adhesion, migration, and angiogenesis were measured using CCK-8, flow cytometry, gelatin, transwell, and tube formation, respectively. Nitric oxide (NO) levels were measured using an NO assay kit.

Results: Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes (KEGG) enrichment analysis showed that differentially expressed genes were enriched in cancer signaling, PI3K-Akt signaling, and Rap1 signaling pathways. We selected differentially expressed genes in the PI3K-Akt signaling pathway and verified them using a series of experiments. The results showed that ECSW therapy (500 shots at 0.09 mJ/mm²) significantly improved proliferation, adhesion, migration, and tube formation abilities of EPCs following hypoxic injury, accompanied by upregulation of p-PI3K, p-Akt, p-eNOS, Bcl-2 protein and NO, PI3K, and Akt mRNA expression, and downregulation of Bax and Caspase3 protein expression. All these effects of ECSW were eliminated using inhibitors specific to PI3K (LY294002), Akt (MK-2206), and eNOS (L-NAME).

Conclusion: ECSW exerted a strong repaired effect on EPCs suffering inhibited hypoxia injury by inhibiting cell apoptosis and promoting angiogenesis, mainly through activating the PI3K/Akt/eNOS signaling pathway, which provide new evidence for ECSW therapy in CHD.

The 4MOTHERS trial of the impact of a mobile money-based intervention on maternal and neonatal health outcomes in Madagascar: study protocol of a cluster-randomized hybrid effectiveness-implementation trial

Background

Mobile money—a service enabling users to receive, store, and send electronic money using mobile phones—has been widely adopted across low- and middle-income economies to pay for a variety of services, including healthcare. However, evidence on its effects on healthcare access and health outcomes are scarce and the possible implications of using mobile money for financing and payment of maternal healthcare services—which generally require large one-time out-of-pocket payments—have not yet been systematically assessed in low-resource settings. The aim of this study is to determine the impact on health outcomes, cost-effectiveness, feasibility, acceptability, and usefulness of mobile phone-based savings and payment service, the Mobile Maternal Health Wallet (MMHW), for skilled healthcare during pregnancy and delivery among women in Madagascar.

Methods

This is a hybrid effectiveness-implementation type-1 trial, determining the effectiveness of the intervention while evaluating the context of its implementation in Madagascar’s Analamanga region, containing the capital, Antananarivo. Using a stratified cluster randomized design, 61 public-sector primary-care health facilities were randomized within 6 strata to either receive the intervention or not (29 intervention vs. 32 control facilities). The strata were defined by a health facility’s antenatal care visit volume and its capacity to offer facility-based deliveries. The registered pre-specified primary outcomes are (i) delivery at a health facility, (ii) antenatal care visits, and (iii) total healthcare expenditure during pregnancy, delivery, and neonatal period. The registered pre-specified secondary outcomes include additional health outcomes, economic outcomes, and measurements of user experience and satisfaction. Our estimated enrolment number is 4600 women, who completed their pregnancy between July 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021. A series of nested mixed-methods studies will elucidate client and provider perceptions on feasibility, acceptability, and usefulness of the intervention to inform future implementation efforts.

Discussion

A cluster-randomized, hybrid effectiveness-implementation design allows for a robust approach to determine whether the MMHW is a feasible and beneficial intervention in a resource-restricted public healthcare environment. We expect the results of our study to guide future initiatives and health policy decisions related to maternal and neonatal health and universal healthcare coverage through technology in Madagascar and other countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Trial registration

This trial was registered on March 12, 2021: Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien (German Clinical Trials Register), identifier: DRKS00014928. For World Health Organization Trial Registration Data Set see Additional file 1.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-021-05694-8.

Risk Factors for Deliberate Self-harm and Suicide Among Adolescents and Young Adults With First-Episode Psychosis

Little is known about the risk factors for deliberate self-harm (DSH) and suicide among adolescents and young adults with first episode psychosis (FEP) and the longitudinal course of DSH following the initial onset of illness. This study identifies risk factors for DSH and suicide death among Medicaid-covered adolescents and young adults with FEP along with the periods of greatest risk for DSH after diagnosis. A retrospective longitudinal cohort analysis was performed using Medicaid claims data merged with death certificate data for 19 422 adolescents and young adults (aged 15-24 years) diagnosed with the onset of FEP between 2010 and 2017. DSH per 1000 person-years and standardized mortality rates for suicide were determined. Hazard ratios of DSH and suicide were estimated by Cox proportional hazard models. During follow-up, 2148 (11.1%) individuals had at least one self-harm event and 22 (0.1%) died by suicide. The hazards of DSH were significantly higher for those with a previous DSH, suicidal ideation, child abuse and neglect, comorbid medical and psychiatric diagnoses, and prior mental health care. The median follow-up time for those who had DSH was 208.0 days (SD: 526.5 days) in adolescents and 108.0 days (SD: 340.0 days) in young adults. Risk of DSH was highest in the first 3 months following FEP. Individuals with FEP are at high risk for self-harm and suicidal behavior, and recognition of who among these individuals and when following illness onset they are at greatest risk may guide more precise clinical recognition and intervention.

Incidence and disability-adjusted life years of maternal disorders at the global, regional, and national levels from 2007 to 2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

OBJECTIVE

To report the global burden of maternal disorders and their main subcategories in 195 countries and territories between 2007 and 2017.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimated maternal disease burden at global, regional, and country levels. Maternal disorders were disaggregated into 10 categories, and estimated incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of maternal disorders were reported separately. Indicators were estimated in different geographic settings and different sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. Based on GBD 2017 estimates, we systematically examined the incidence and DALYs of maternal disorders and their main subcategories at the global, regional, and national levels during the period from 2007 to 2017 by age and SDI.

RESULTS

Globally, a total of 7.98 million maternal disorders occurred in 2017, with a 4.33% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3.24%-5.60%) decrease in age-standardized incidence rate and a more significant decrease (30.26%) in the age-standardized rate of DALYs. Most incidences and DALYs were found in low-income and middle-income countries, especially in the sub-Saharan region. The greatest incidence of maternal disorders was found to be in maternal abortion and miscarriage (2.00 million), and the highest disease burden was in maternal hemorrhage (2.23 million).

CONCLUSION

A slight increase in the incidence of maternal disorders and substantial reductions in DALYs of overall maternal disorders and their main subcategories were found from 2007 to 2017, especially in low-income countries and the sub-Saharan region. Maternal hemorrhage, hypertensive disorders, and indirect maternal death were the top three causes of maternal disorders disease burden.

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitors, All-Cause Mortality, and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Adults with Type 2 Diabetes: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression

Background

This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of sodium‐glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors in reducing the incidence of mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in adults with type 2 diabetes.

Methods and Results

We conducted a Bayesian meta‐analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing sodium‐glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors with placebo. We used meta‐regression to examine the association between treatment effects and control group event rates as measures of cardiovascular baseline risk. Fifty‐three randomized controlled trials were included in our synthesis. Empagliflozin, canagliflozin, and dapagliflozin reduced the incidence of all‐cause mortality (empagliflozin: rate ratio [RR], 0.79; 95% credibility interval [CrI], 0.63–0.97; canagliflozin: RR, 0.86; 95% CrI, 0.69–1.05; dapagliflozin: RR, 0.86; 95% CrI, 0.72–1.01) and cardiovascular mortality (empagliflozin: RR, 0.78; 95% CrI, 0.61–1.00; canagliflozin: RR, 0.83; 95% CrI, 0.63–1.05; dapagliflozin: RR, 0.88; 95% CrI, 0.71–1.08), with a 90.1% to 98.7% probability for the true RR to be <1.00 for both outcomes. There was little evidence for ertugliflozin and sotagliflozin versus placebo for reducing all‐cause and cardiovascular mortality. There was no association between treatment effects for all‐cause and cardiovascular mortality and the control group event rates. There was evidence for a reduction in the incidence of heart failure for empagliflozin, canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, and ertugliflozin versus placebo (probability RR <1.00 of ≥99.3%) and weaker, albeit positive, evidence for acute myocardial infarction for the first 3 agents (probability RR <1.00 of 89.0%–95.2%). There was little evidence of any agent except canagliflozin for reducing the incidence of stroke.

Conclusions

Empagliflozin, canagliflozin, and dapagliflozin reduced the incidence of all‐cause and cardiovascular mortality versus placebo. Treatment effects of sodium‐glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors versus placebo do not vary by baseline risk.

Years of good life is a well-being indicator designed to serve research on sustainability

Sustainable development (SD) as popularized by the Brundtland Commission and politically enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals has been the explicit focus of sustainability science. While there is broad agreement that the trend of human well-being (W) over time should serve as a sustainability criterion, the literature so far has mostly addressed this in terms of its determinants rather than focusing on W itself. There is broad agreement that an indicator for W should have multiple constituents, clearly going beyond gross domestic product. Here, we propose a tailor-made indicator to serve precisely this purpose following a set of specified desiderata, including its applicability to flexibly defined subnational populations by gender, place of residence, ethnicity, and other relevant characteristics. The indicator, years of good life (YoGL), reflects the evident fact that in order to be able to enjoy any quality of life, one has to be alive and thus is primarily based on life expectancy. However, since mere survival is not considered good enough, life years are counted conditional on meeting minimum standards in two dimensions: the objective dimension of capable longevity (consisting of being out of absolute poverty and enjoying minimal levels of physical and cognitive health) and the subjective dimension of overall life satisfaction. We illustrate the calculation of this indicator for countries and subpopulations at different stages of development and with different degrees of data availability.

Are current preventive chemotherapy strategies for controlling and eliminating neglected tropical diseases cost-effective?

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) remain a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in many low-income and middle-income countries. Several NTDs, namely lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH) and trachoma, are predominantly controlled by preventive chemotherapy (or mass drug administration), following recommendations set by the WHO. Over one billion people are now treated for NTDs with this strategy per year. However, further investment and increased domestic healthcare spending are urgently needed to continue these programmes. Consequently, it is vital that the cost-effectiveness of preventive chemotherapy is understood. We analyse the current estimates on the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of the preventive chemotherapy strategies predominantly used for these diseases and identify key evidence gaps that require further research. Overall, the reported estimates show that preventive chemotherapy is generally cost-effective, supporting WHO recommendations. More specifically, the cost per DALY averted estimates relating to community-wide preventive chemotherapy for lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis were particularly favourable when compared with other public health interventions. Cost per DALY averted estimates of school-based preventive chemotherapy for schistosomiasis and STH were also generally favourable but more variable. Notably, the broader socioeconomic benefits are likely not being fully captured by the DALYs averted metric. No estimates of cost per DALY averted relating to community-wide mass antibiotic treatment for trachoma were found, highlighting the need for further research. These findings are important for informing global health policy and support the need for continuing NTD control and elimination efforts.

Quantifying non-communicable diseases' burden in Egypt using State-Space model

The study aimed to model and quantify the health burden induced by four non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Egypt, the first to be conducted in the context of a less developing county. The study used the State-Space model and adopted two Bayesian methods: Particle Filter and Particle Independent Metropolis-Hastings to model and estimate the NCDs’ health burden trajectories. We drew on time-series data of the International Health Metric Evaluation, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) Annual Bulletin of Health Services Statistics, the World Bank, and WHO data. Both Bayesian methods showed that the burden trajectories are on the rise. Most of the findings agreed with our assumptions and are in line with the literature. Previous year burden strongly predicts the burden of the current year. High prevalence of the risk factors, disease prevalence, and the disease’s severity level all increase illness burden. Years of life lost due to death has high loadings in most of the diseases. Contrary to the study assumption, results found a negative relationship between disease burden and health services utilization which can be attributed to the lack of full health insurance coverage and the pattern of health care seeking behavior in Egypt. Our study highlights that Particle Independent Metropolis-Hastings is sufficient in estimating the parameters of the study model, in the case of time-constant parameters. The study recommends using state Space models with Bayesian estimation approaches with time-series data in public health and epidemiology research.

Defeatist performance beliefs in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis and outpatients with chronic schizophrenia

AIM

Prior studies indicate that defeatist performance beliefs (DPBs) are elevated in those in the chronic phase of schizophrenia (SZ) and associated with negative symptoms, functional outcome and neurocognitive impairment. However, it is unclear whether these same patterns of results hold in participants at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis.

METHODS

Two studies were conducted to determine whether prior results in SZ could be replicated and extended to CHR. Participants included 184 healthy controls (CN) and 186 outpatients with chronic SZ for Study 1, and 30 CN and 35 CHR in Study 2. In both studies, participants completed the DPB scale and measures of negative symptoms, psychosocial functioning and neurocognition.

RESULTS

Both chronic SZ and CHR participants had elevated DPBs compared to CN (p's < .01). In SZ, higher DPBs were associated with greater negative symptoms (r's = .31-.37, p's < .01), poorer social functioning and impaired social cognition (r = -.40, P < .001). In CHR, greater DPBs were associated with poorer social functioning (r = -.52, P < .05) and impairments in the neurocognitive domains of reasoning (r = -.48, P < .05) and processing speed (r = -.41, P < .05). Models testing whether DPBs mediated links between negative symptoms and functioning, negative symptoms and cognition and cognition and functioning were nonsignificant in SZ and CHR samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings generally provide support for the cognitive model of negative symptoms and functioning and suggest that DPBs are an important clinical target across phases of psychotic illness.

Conflict-related intentional injuries in Baghdad, Iraq, 2003-2014: A modeling study and proposed method for calculating burden of injury in conflict

BACKGROUND

Previous research has focused on the mortality associated with armed conflict as the primary measure of the population health effects of war. However, mortality only demonstrates part of the burden placed on a population by conflict. Injuries and resultant disabilities also have long-term effects on a population and are not accounted for in estimates that focus solely on mortality. Our aim was to demonstrate a new method to describe the effects of both lives lost, and years of disability generated by a given conflict, with data from the US-led 2003 invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Our data come from interviews conducted in 2014 in 900 Baghdad households containing 5,148 persons. The average household size was 5.72 persons. The majority of the population (55.8%) were between the ages of 19 and 60. Household composition was evenly divided between males and females. Household sample collection was based on methodology previously designed for surveying households in war zones. Survey questions were answered by the head of household or senior adult present. The questions included year the injury occurred, the mechanism of injury, the body parts injured, whether injury resulted in disability and, if so, the length of disability. We present this modeling study to offer an innovative methodology for measuring "years lived with disability" (YLDs) and "years of life lost" (YLLs) attributable to conflict-related intentional injuries, using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) approach. YLDs were calculated with disability weights, and YLLs were calculated by comparing the age at death to the GBD standard life table to calculate remaining life expectancy. Calculations were also performed using Iraq-specific life expectancy for comparison. We calculated a burden of injury of 5.6 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to conflict-related injuries in Baghdad from 2003 to 2014. The majority of DALYs lost were attributable to YLLs, rather than YLDs, 4.99 million YLLs lost (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.87 million to 6.13 million) versus 616,000 YLDs lost (95% UI 399,000 to 894,000). Cause-based analysis demonstrated that more DALYs were lost to due to gunshot wounds (57%) than any other cause. Our study has several limitations. Recall bias regarding the reporting and attribution of injuries is possible. Second, we have no data past the time of the interview, so we assumed individuals with ongoing disability at the end of data collection would not recover, possibly counting more disability for injuries occurring later. Additionally, incomplete data could have led to misclassification of deaths, resulting in an underestimation of the total burden of injury.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we propose a methodology to perform burden of disease calculations for conflict-related injuries (expressed in DALYs) in Baghdad from 2003 to 2014. We go beyond previous reports of simple mortality to assess long-term population health effects of conflict-related intentional injuries. Ongoing disability is, in cross section, a relatively small 10% of the total burden. Yet, this small proportion creates years of demands on the health system, persistent limitations in earning capacity, and continuing burdens of care provision on family members.

The burden of skin disease and eye disease due to onchocerciasis in countries formerly under the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control mandate for 1990, 2020, and 2030

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis ("river blindness") can cause severe morbidity, including vision loss and various skin manifestations, and is targeted for elimination using ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA). We calculated the number of people with Onchocerca volvulus infection and onchocercal skin and eye disease as well as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost from 1990 through to 2030 in areas formerly covered by the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control.

METHODS

Per MDA implementation unit, we collated data on the pre-control distribution of microfilariae (mf) prevalence and the history of control. Next, we predicted trends in infection and morbidity over time using the ONCHOSIM simulation model. DALY estimates were calculated using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

RESULTS

In 1990, prior to MDA implementation, the total population at risk was 79.8 million with 26.0 million (32.5%) mf-positive individuals, of whom 17.5 million (21.9%) had some form of onchocercal skin or eye disease (2.5 million DALYs lost). By 2030, the total population was predicted to increase to 236.1 million, while the number of mf-positive cases (about 6.8 million, 2.9%), people with skin or eye morbidity (4.2 million, 1.8%), and DALYs lost (0.7 million) were predicted to decline.

CONCLUSIONS

MDA has had a remarkable impact on the onchocerciasis burden in countries previously under the APOC mandate. In the few countries where we predict continued transmission between now and 2030, intensified MDA could be combined with local vector control efforts, or the introduction of new drugs for mopping up residual cases of infection and morbidity.

Cost-effectiveness of artificial intelligence monitoring for active tuberculosis treatment: A modeling study

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) incidence in Los Angeles County, California, USA (5.7 per 100,000) is significantly higher than the U.S. national average (2.9 per 100,000). Directly observed therapy (DOT) is the preferred strategy for active TB treatment but requires substantial resources. We partnered with the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (LACDPH) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of AiCure, an artificial intelligence (AI) platform that allows for automated treatment monitoring.

Methods

We used a Markov model to compare DOT versus AiCure for active TB treatment in LA County. Each cohort transitioned between health states at rates estimated using data from a pilot study for AiCure (N = 43) and comparable historical controls for DOT (N = 71). We estimated total costs (2017, USD) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a 16-month horizon to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and net monetary benefits (NMB) of AiCure. To assess robustness, we conducted deterministic (DSA) and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA).

Results

For the average patient, AiCure was dominant over DOT. DOT treatment cost $4,894 and generated 1.03 QALYs over 16-months. AiCure treatment cost $2,668 for 1.05 QALYs. At willingness-to-pay threshold of $150K/QALY, incremental NMB per-patient under AiCure was $4,973. In univariate DSA, NMB were most sensitive to monthly doses and vocational nurse wage; however, AiCure remained dominant. In PSA, AiCure was dominant in 93.5% of 10,000 simulations (cost-effective in 96.4%).

Conclusions

AiCure for treatment of active TB is cost-effective for patients in LA County, California. Increased use of AI platforms in other jurisdictions could facilitate the CDC’s vision of TB elimination.