Interventions to address deaths from childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea equitably: what works and at what cost?

How many child deaths can be averted in Nigeria? Assessing state-level prospects of achieving 2030 sustainable development goals for neonatal and under-five mortality

Background: Nigeria's neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR) are 39 per 1,000 and 120 per 1,000 live births, respectively. On average, 0.23 million neonates and 0.7 million under-five children die every year, but some states contribute more to this burden than others. If the country is to meet its sustainable development goal (SDG) targets for NMR and U5MR, it needs to make progress at both the national and subnational levels. Methods: Using the 2016-2017 Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), we estimated state-level neonatal and under-five mortality rates.  Next, we estimated how long it would take for each state to reach the SDG targets for NMR and U5MR. Finally, we estimated the average number of neonatal and under-five deaths that could be averted between 2018 and 2030 in each state under different scenarios. Results: At current average annual rates of decline, Nigeria is unlikely to meet both sustainable development goals targets for NMR and U5MR. At the subnational level, some states are close to or have met both NMR and U5MR targets, while others are projected to meet the targets as late as 2088 (58 years delayed). Between 850,000 and 1.89 million neonatal deaths could be averted between 2018 and 2030, while 3.1 million to 5.96 million under-five deaths could be averted over the same period. Conclusions: Nigeria has the potential to achieve its SDG targets for NMR and U5MR, and in the process avert millions of preventable child deaths. But this will not happen under a business-as-usual approach. The NMR and U5MR trajectories achieved by high-performing states is evidence that achieving these SDG targets is possible. For the country to achieve positive results nationally, systems that encourage peer learning and transfer of technical expertise between states are needed.

Implementation of Steps 1-9 to Successful Breastfeeding Reduces the Frequency of Mild and Severe Episodes of Diarrhea and Respiratory Tract Infection Among 0-6 Month Infants in Democratic Republic of Congo

INTRODUCTION

Global initiatives to improve breastfeeding practices have focused on the Ten Steps to Successful Breastfeeding. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of implementing Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative (BFHI) steps 1-9 and BFHI steps 1-10 on incidence of diarrhea and respiratory illnesses in the first 6 months of life.

METHODS

We reanalyzed a cluster randomized trial in which health-care clinics in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, were randomly assigned to standard care (control group), BFHI steps 1-9, or BFHI steps 1-10. Outcomes included episodes of diarrhea and respiratory illness. Piecewise Poisson regression with generalized estimation equations to account for clustering by clinic was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Steps 1-9 was associated with a decreased incidence of reported diarrhea (IRR 0.72, 95% CI 0.53, 0.99) and respiratory illness (IRR 0.48, 95% CI 0.37, 0.63), health facility visits due to diarrhea (IRR 0.60, 95% CI 0.42, 0.85) and respiratory illness (IRR 0.47, 95% CI 0.36, 0.63), and hospitalizations due to diarrhea (IRR 0.42, 95% CI 0.17, 1.06) and respiratory illness (IRR 0.33, 95% CI 0.11, 0.98). Addition of Step 10 attenuated this effect: episodes of reported diarrhea (IRR 1.24, 95% CI 0.93, 1.68) and respiratory illness (IRR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60, 0.99), health facility visits due to diarrhea (IRR 0.76, 95% CI 0.54, 1.08) and respiratory illness (IRR 0.75 95% CI 0.57, 0.97), and hospitalizations due to respiratory illness (IRR 0.48 95% CI 0.16, 1.40); but strengthened the effect against hospitalizations due to diarrhea (IRR 0.14, 95% CI 0.03, 0.60).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of steps 1-9 significantly reduced incidence of mild and severe episodes of diarrhea and respiratory infection in the first 6 months of life, addition of step 10 appeared to lessen this effect.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT01428232.

Identification of potential diagnostic biomarkers for pneumonia caused by adenovirus infection in children by screening serum exosomal microRNAs

Human adenovirus (HAdV) infection causes serious pneumonia in children, leading to significant morbidity and mortality rates. However, diagnostic biomarkers for HAdV‑associated pneumonia are unavailable. Serum microRNAs (miRNAs/miRs) have been recently reported as diagnostic biomarkers for several diseases. The present study performed microRNA sequencing to identify potential biomarkers among serum exosomal miRNAs, with the aim of identifying candidate biomarkers for the diagnosis of pneumonia in adenovirus‑infected children. To validate the biomarker candidates, reverse transcription‑quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT‑qPCR) was performed to determine the relative expression levels of miRNAs. As there is no endogenous reference RNA for serum miRNAs, pairwise analysis of RT‑qPCR was used in the present study to narrow down the number of biomarker candidates among all the serum exosomal miRNAs to a set of four miRNAs. As a result, the identified miRNAs (namely, miR‑450a‑5p‑miR‑103a‑3p and miR‑103b‑5p‑miR‑98‑5p) from 59 samples were considered as potential diagnostic biomarkers in adenovirus‑infected children. The results indicated that this four miRNA set could distinguish adenovirus‑infected patients from healthy controls. In conclusion, the four exosomal miRNAs identified in the present study could be considered as candidate diagnostic biomarkers for pneumonia in adenovirus‑infected children.

Apparent overuse of antibiotics in the management of watery diarrhoea in children in Abakaliki, Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Diarrhoea remains an important cause of childhood mortality in Nigeria, with Rotavirus and Cryptosporidium reported to have the highest contribution. However, high use of antibiotics for treatment of paediatric diarrhoea has been observed, although World Health Organization guidelines discourage the use of antibiotics for treating acute diarrhoea. Here we investigated more closely management and treatment practices for acute paediatric diarrhoea, both in home and healthcare settings.

METHODS

Children under 5 years of age (n = 199) presenting at healthcare centres in Abakaliki, Nigeria with acute watery diarrhoea were included in the study. Background information on the children was collected by questionnaire, including home treatments, and clinical information including symptoms and treatment were provided by the healthcare centres. Analysis of faecal samples from the children indicated that over 90% had Rotavirus infection and over 6% Cryptosporidium infection. Data were compiled in a spreadsheet and analysed for associations between variables and use of antibiotics using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Although most children were treated supportively (oral rehydration solution and intravenous fluids at home and in healthcare settings, respectively) over 15% were given anti-diarrhoea drugs at home and over 85% were also prescribed antibiotics at the healthcare centre, mostly ciproflaxin, but also metronidazole and gentamycin. The only variable positively associated with antibiotic prescription was diarrhoea more than three times per 24 h at admission.

CONCLUSIONS

It is clear that young children presenting with acute watery diarrhoea to healthcare centres in Abakaliki are likely to be prescribed antibiotics, despite there being no obvious reason that this treatment is appropriate. Our study results support the need for institution-based antimicrobial stewardship being implemented in Nigeria.

Learning From History About Reducing Infant Mortality: Contrasting the Centrality of Structural Interventions to Early 20th-Century Successes in the United States to Their Neglect in Current Global Initiatives

Policy Points Current efforts to reduce infant mortality and improve infant health in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) can benefit from awareness of the history of successful early 20th-century initiatives to reduce infant mortality in high-income countries, which occurred before widespread use of vaccination and medical technologies. Improvements in sanitation, civil registration, milk purification, and institutional structures to monitor and reduce infant mortality played a crucial role in the decline in infant mortality seen in the United States in the early 1900s. The commitment to sanitation and civil registration has not been fulfilled in many LMICs. Structural investments in sanitation and water purification as well as in civil registration systems should be central, not peripheral, to the goal of infant mortality reduction in LMICs.

CONTEXT

Between 1915 and 1950, the infant mortality rate (IMR) in the United States declined from 100 to fewer than 30 deaths per 1,000 live births, prior to the widespread use of medical technologies and vaccination. In 2015 the IMR in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) was 53.2 deaths per 1,000 live births, which is comparable to the United States in 1935 when IMR was 55.7 deaths per 1,000 live births. We contrast the role of public health institutions and interventions for IMR reduction in past versus present efforts to reduce infant mortality in LMICs to critically examine the current evidence base for reducing infant mortality and to propose ways in which lessons from history can inform efforts to address the current burden of infant mortality.

METHODS

We searched the peer-reviewed and gray literature on the causes and explanations behind the decline in infant mortality in the United States between 1850 and 1950 and in LMICs after 2000. We included historical analyses, empirical research, policy documents, and global strategies. For each key source, we assessed the factors considered by their authors to be salient in reducing infant mortality.

FINDINGS

Public health programs that played a central role in the decline in infant mortality in the United States in the early 1900s emphasized large structural interventions like filtering and chlorinating water supplies, building sanitation systems, developing the birth and death registration area, pasteurizing milk, and also educating mothers on infant care and hygiene. The creation of new institutions and policies for infant health additionally provided technical expertise, mobilized resources, and engaged women's groups and public health professionals. In contrast, contemporary literature and global policy documents on reducing infant mortality in LMICs have primarily focused on interventions at the individual, household, and health facility level, and on the widespread adoption of cheap, ostensibly accessible, and simple technologies, often at the cost of leaving the structural conditions that determine child survival largely untouched.

CONCLUSIONS

Current discourses on infant mortality are not informed by lessons from history. Although structural interventions were central to the decline in infant mortality in the United States, current interventions in LMICs that receive the most global endorsement do not address these structural determinants of infant mortality. Using a historical lens to examine the continued problem of infant mortality in LMICs suggests that structural interventions, especially regarding sanitation and civil registration, should again become core to a public health approach to addressing infant mortality.

Let the "A" in WASH Stand for Air: Integrating Research and Interventions to Improve Household Air Pollution (HAP) and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WaSH) in Low-Income Settings

BACKGROUND

Research often suffers from overspecialization, a practice nurtured in academia and reinforced by funders. Indeed, investigators in household air pollution (HAP) and water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH), working in poor parts of the world, rarely interact despite having similar training and using similar methods to evaluate interventions in the same vulnerable populations. Disappointing results from recent trials of improved cookstoves and traditional approaches to WaSH suggest the need for alternative approaches.

OBJECTIVES

We argue that bringing these two areas together would improve the effectiveness and efficiency of interventions to reduce the massive disease burden associated with HAP and poor WaSH, including pneumonia and diarrhea, the leading killers of young children in low-income countries.

RESULTS

HAP and WaSH face similar challenges in designing, implementing, and securing the sustained and exclusive use of scalable interventions such as clean fuel and water.

DISCUSSION

Research can advance greater coordination of these areas by demonstrating their interactions and wider impacts on well-being as well as the potential for programmatic synergies. Integrated solutions to clean households and communities can benefit from the contribution in multiple disciplines, including economics and policy analysis; business and finance; engineering and technology; lab sciences, environmental health, and biomedical sciences; and behavioral and implementation sciences.

CONCLUSION

There are compelling reasons to overcome the artificial and unproductive segregation of HAP and WaSH. Researchers should encourage integration by expanding the scope of their collaborations and projects. Policy makers, funders, and implementers can help by supporting comprehensive solutions, encouraging innovation, and requiring rigorous evaluations of their effects. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4752.

Latent variable modeling to develop a robust proxy for sensitive behaviors: application to latrine use behavior and its association with sanitation access in a middle-income country

BACKGROUND

Globally, diarrhea is a leading cause of child morbidity and mortality. Although latrines are integral for reducing enteric pathogen transmission, several studies have shown no evidence that latrine ownership improved child health. There are a number of explanations for these results. One explanation is that latrine access does not equate to latrine use. Latrine use, however, is difficult to accurately ascertain, as defecation behavior is often stigmatized. To address this measurement issue, we measure latrine use as a latent variable, indicated by a suite of psychosocial variables.

METHODS

We administered a survey of 16 defecation-related psychosocial questions to 251 individuals living in rural Ecuador. We applied latent class analysis (LCA) to these data to model the probability of latrine use as a latent variable. To account for uncertainty in predicted latent class membership, we used a pseudo-class approach to impute five different probabilities of latrine use for each respondent. Via regression modeling, we tested the association between household sanitation and each imputed latrine use variable.

RESULTS

The optimal model presented strong evidence of two latent classes (entropy = 0.86): consistent users (78%) and inconsistent users (22%), predicted by 5 of our 16 psychosocial variables. There was no evidence of an association between the probability of latrine use, predicted from the LCA, and household access to basic sanitation (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 0.6-2.1). This suggests that home access to a sanitation facility may not ensure the use of the facility for every family member at all times.

CONCLUSION

Effective implementation and evaluation of sanitation programs requires accurate measurement of latrine use. Psychosocial variables, such as norms, perceptions, and attitudes may provide robust proxy-measures. Future longitudinal studies will help to strengthen the use of these surrogate measures, as many of these factors may be subject to secular trends. Additionally, subgroup analyses will elucidate how our  proxy indicators of latrine defecation vary by individual-level characteristics.

Helicobacter pylori and enteric parasites co-infection among diarrheic and non-diarrheic Egyptian children: seasonality, estimated risks, and predictive factors

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and intestinal parasites are known for their high prevalence in children. Both of them infect the gastrointestinal tract with overlapping clinical pictures. This study was conducted to determine H. pylori prevalence and its association with intestinal parasites in children, moreover to estimate risk and predictive factors for their detection in stool samples. Single fecal samples were collected from 226 Egyptian pediatric patients (125 diarrheic and 101 non-diarrheic) attending gastroenterology outpatients' clinics, from February 2016 to June 2017. All stool specimens were microscopically examined to search for ova and parasites. Copro-DNAs detection of H. pylori and Cryptosporidium were performed using nested-PCR assays. H. pylori was detected molecularly in 36.8% of the total study population, with a higher prevalence in diarrheic than in non-diarrheic children. Intestinal parasites were detected in 27.4% of the total study populations, of these, 43.9% had co-existence with H. pylori colonized patients and was significantly associated with Cryptosporidium spp. and G. intestinalis. Estimated risk of the presence of H. pylori was in January. Our data provide a better understanding of the epidemiology of H. pylori infection when associated with intestinal parasites. H. pylori co-existence with G. intestinals and Cryptosporidium may suggest the association of H. pylori infection with markers of fecal exposure. Whether H. pylori provides favorable conditions for intestinal parasitosis or vice versa, still further investigations are needed with an emphasis upon determining correlation with gut microbiomes.

Cost of Caregivers for Treating Hospitalized Diarrheal Patients in Bangladesh

INTRODUCTION

Diarrheal diseases are a global public health problem and one of the leading causes of mortality, morbidity and economic loss. The objective of the study is to estimate the economic cost of caregivers and cost distribution per diarrheal episodes in Bangladesh.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional hospital-based study conducted in public hospitals in Bangladesh. A total of 801 diarrheal patients were randomly selected and interviewed during January to December 2015. Simple descriptive statistics including frequencies, percentage, mean with 95% CI and median are presented.

RESULTS

The overall average cost of caregivers was BDT 2243 (US$ 28.58) while only BDT 259 (US$ 3.29) was spent as out of pocket payments. Caregivers mostly spent money (US$ 1.63) for food, lodging, utility bills, and other lump sum costs followed by the transportation costs (US$ 1.57). The caregivers spent more (US$ 44.45) when they accompanied the patients who were admitted in inpatients care and almost 3.6 times higher than for out-patients care (US$ 12.42).

CONCLUSIONS

The study delivers an empirical evidence to the health-care programmers and policy makers about the economic cost of caregivers during diarrheal treatment care, which should be accounted for in designing future diarrheal prevention programme.

Fly control to prevent diarrhoea in children

BACKGROUND

Diarrhoeal disease accounts for millions of child deaths every year. Although the role of flies as vectors of infectious diarrhoea has been established, fly control is not often mentioned as an approach to decrease childhood diarrhoea. Theoretically, fly control for decreasing diarrhoea incidence can be achieved by intervening at four different levels: reduction or elimination of fly breeding sites; reduction of sources that attract houseflies; prevention of contact between flies and disease-causing organisms; and protection of people, food, and food utensils from contact with flies.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the impact of various housefly control measures on the incidence of diarrhoea and its related morbidity and mortality in children under five years of age.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched electronic databases including the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and LILACS, from database inception to 24 May 2018. We also searched trial registries for relevant grey literature and ongoing trials. We checked the references of the identified studies and reviews. We did not apply any filters for language, publication status (published, unpublished, in press, and ongoing), or publication date.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We planned to include randomized controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs, and controlled before-and-after studies that studied the effect of fly control on diarrhoea in children under five years of age.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors extracted the data and independently assessed the risk of bias in the included study. We planned to contact study authors for additional information, where necessary. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We included one cluster-RCT (491 participants) conducted in Pakistan that evaluated insecticide spraying in the first two years and baited fly traps in the third year. Insecticide spraying reduced the fly population (house index) in the intervention group during the four months of the year when both flies and cases of diarrhoea were more common, but not at other times. On average, this was associated with a reduction in the incidence of diarrhoea in the first year (illustrative mean episodes per child-year in the intervention group was 6.3 while in the control group was 7.1) and second year of the intervention (illustrative mean episodes per child‒year in the intervention group was 4.4 while in the control group was 6.5; rate ratio (RaR) 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.89, low-certainty evidence). In the third year of the intervention, the baited fly traps did not demonstrate an effect on the fly population or on diarrhoea incidence (RaR 1.15, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.47, low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The trial, conducted in a setting where there were clear seasonal peaks in fly numbers and associated diarrhoea, shows insecticide spraying may reduce diarrhoea in children. Further research on whether this finding is applicable to other setting is required, as well as work on other fly control methods, their effects, feasibility, costs, and acceptability.

Feeding Practice during Diarrheal Episode among Children Aged between 6 to 23 Months in Mirab Abaya District, Gamo Gofa Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Background

Diarrheal disease is one of the main causes of childhood malnutrition. In developing countries 30% of pediatric beds are occupied with children having diarrheal disease. Fluid replacement, continued feeding, and increasing appropriate fluid at home during the diarrhea episodes are the cornerstone of treatment package. The purpose of this study was to assess feeding practice during diarrheal episodes among children aged 6 to 23 months in Mirab Abaya district, Gamo Gofa Zone, South Ethiopia.

Methods

Community-based cross-sectional study design was conducted from February to March 2016 among children aged 6 to 23 months. A multistage sampling technique was used to select the study participants. A total of 661 participants were included in our study. Data were entered into Epi data version 3.1 and exported to SPSS 20.0 statistical software for analysis. Bivariate and multivariable analysis were done to assess factors associated with feeding practices during a diarrheal episode. Odds ratio with 95% CI was used to identify a statistically significant association between independent variables and feeding practice during diarrheal episode.

Result

The proportion of proper feeding practice during diarrheal episode was 467 (70.7%). Boy children were about 1.6 times [AOR; 1.62 (95%CI=1.04, 2.50)] more likely to receive increased food and fluid than girl children. Mothers who have one under-five child were 2 times [AOR 2.11 (95% CI =1. 38, 3.23)] more likely to have proper feeding practice during diarrheal episode as compared to those have two and more under-five children. The likelihood of increasing food and fluid during diarrheal episodes was 2 times [AOR 2.46 (95% CI=1. 55, 3.88)] higher among children from maternal age of 30-39 years than those from 20-29 years. Mothers who get information about feeding practices during diarrheal episodes were 2 times [AOR 2.19 (95% CI=1. 43, 3.36)] more likely to increase food and fluid to their child compared to their counterparts.

Conclusion

In this study educational status, number of antenatal care visits, sex, number of under-5 children, maternal age, and mothers information about feeding practice were independently associated with feeding practices during a diarrheal episode. Therefore, intensive intervention programme should focus on these determinants to reduce child mortality and morbidity and realize sustainable development goals.

Identifying potential uses of crowdsourcing in global health, conflict, and humanitarian settings: an adapted CHNRI (Child Health and Nutrition Initiative) exercise

Background

Crowdsourcing, outsourcing problems and tasks to a crowd, has grown exponentially since the term was coined a decade ago. Being a rapid and inexpensive approach, it is particularly amenable to addressing problems in global health, conflict and humanitarian settings, but its potential has not been systematically assessed. We employed the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative's (CHNRI) method to generate a ranked list of potential uses of crowdsourcing in global health and conflict.

Process

94 experts in global health and crowdsourcing submitted their ideas, and 239 ideas were scored. Each expert scored ideas against three of seven criteria, which were tailored specifically for the exercise. A relative ranking was calculated, along with an Average Expert Agreement (AEA).

Findings

On a scale from 0-100, the scores assigned to proposed ideas ranged from 80.39 to 42.01. Most ideas were related to problem solving (n = 112) or data generation (n = 91). Using health care workers to share information about disease outbreaks to ensure global response had the highest score and agreement. Within the top 15, four additional ideas related to containing communicable diseases, two ideas related to using crowdsourcing for vital registration and two to improve maternal and child health. The top conflict ideas related to epidemic responses and various aspects of disease spread. Wisdom of the crowds and machine learning scored low despite being promising in literature.

Interpretations

Experts were invited to generate ideas during the Ebola crisis and to score during reports of Zika, which may have affected the scoring. However, crowdsourcing's rapid, inexpensive characteristics make it suitable for addressing epidemics. Given that many ideas reflected Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), crowdsourcing may be an innovative solution to achieving some of the SDGs.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoea in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoea in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies in 1990-2016 and assesses how the burden of diarrhoea has changed in people of all ages.

METHODS

We modelled diarrhoea mortality with a Bayesian hierarchical modelling platform that evaluates a wide range of covariates and model types on the basis of vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We modelled diarrhoea incidence with a compartmental meta-regression tool that enforces an association between incidence and prevalence, and relies on scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data. Diarrhoea deaths and episodes were attributed to 13 pathogens by use of a counterfactual population attributable fraction approach. Diarrhoea risk factors are also based on counterfactual estimates of risk exposure and the association between the risk and diarrhoea. Each modelled estimate accounted for uncertainty.

FINDINGS

In 2016, diarrhoea was the eighth leading cause of death among all ages (1 655 944 deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1 244 073-2 366 552) and the fifth leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years (446 000 deaths, 390 894-504 613). Rotavirus was the leading aetiology for diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years (128 515 deaths, 105 138-155 133) and among all ages (228 047 deaths, 183 526-292 737). Childhood wasting (low weight-for-height score), unsafe water, and unsafe sanitation were the leading risk factors for diarrhoea, responsible for 80·4% (95% UI 68·2-85·0), 72·1% (34·0-91·4), and 56·4% (49·3-62·7) of diarrhoea deaths in children younger than 5 years, respectively. Prevention of wasting in 1762 children (95% UI 1521-2170) could avert one death from diarrhoea.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made globally in reducing the burden of diarrhoeal diseases, driven by decreases in several primary risk factors. However, this reduction has not been equal across locations, and burden among adults older than 70 years requires attention.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

MicroRNA Expression Profile of Whole Blood Is Altered in Adenovirus-Infected Pneumonia Children

Human adenovirus (Adv) infection is responsible for most community-acquired pneumonia in infants and children, which results in significant morbidity and mortality in children every year. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are associated with viral replication and host immune response. Knowing the miRNA expression profile will help understand the role of miRNAs in modulating the host response to adenovirus infection and possibly improve the diagnosis of adenovirus-infected pneumonia. In our study, total RNA extracted from whole blood of adenovirus-infected pneumonia children and healthy controls were analyzed by small RNA deep sequencing. Expression profiles of whole blood microRNAs were altered and distinctly different in adenovirus-infected children. The top 3 upregulated miRNA (hsa-miR-127-3p, hsa-miR-493-5p, and hsa-miR-409-3p) were identified in adenovirus-infected children and provided a clear distinction between infected and healthy individuals. Potential host target genes were predicated and validated by qRT-PCR to study the impact of microRNAs on the host genes. Most of the target genes were involved in the MAPK signaling pathway and innate immune response. These highly upregulated microRNAs may have crucial roles in Adv pathogenesis and are potential biomarkers for adenovirus-infected pneumonia.

Pushing the envelope through the Global Financing Facility: potential impact of mobilising additional support to scale-up life-saving interventions for women, children and adolescents in 50 high-burden countries

Introduction

The Global Financing Facility (GFF) was launched to accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through scaled and sustainable financing for Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Nutrition (RMNCAH-N) outcomes. Our objective was to estimate the potential impact of increased resources available to improve RMNCAH-N outcomes, from expanding and scaling up GFF support in 50 high-burden countries.

Methods

The potential impact of GFF was estimated for the period 2017–2030. First, two scenarios were constructed to reflect conservative and ambitious assumptions around resources that could be mobilised by the GFF model, based on GFF Trust Fund resources of US$2.6  billion. Next, GFF impact was estimated by scaling up coverage of prioritised RMNCAH-N interventions under these resource scenarios. Resource availability was projected using an Excel-based model and health impacts and costs were estimated using the Lives Saved Tool (V.5.69 b9).

Results

We estimate that the GFF partnership could collectively mobilise US$50–75  billion of additional funds for expanding delivery of life-saving health and nutrition interventions to reach coverage of at least 70% for most interventions by 2030. This could avert 34.7  million deaths—including preventable deaths of mothers, newborns, children and stillbirths—compared with flatlined coverage, or 12.4  million deaths compared with continuation of historic trends. Under-five and neonatal mortality rates are estimated to decrease by 35% and 34%, respectively, and stillbirths by 33%.

Conclusion

The GFF partnership through country- contextualised prioritisation and innovative financing could go a long way in increasing spending on RMNCAH-N and closing the existing resource gap. Although not all countries will reach the SDGs by relying on gains from the GFF platform alone, the GFF provides countries with an opportunity to significantly improve RMNCAH-N outcomes through achievable, well-directed changes in resource allocation.

The association between acute malnutrition and water, sanitation, and hygiene among children aged 6-59 months in rural Ethiopia

The causes of acute malnutrition-or "wasting"-are complex, and a better understanding of the underlying drivers is necessary in order to design effective interventions. Water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) practices may play a fundamental role in acute malnutrition, but more research is needed to confirm this relationship. We investigated the association between WASH practices and acute malnutrition among children 6 to 59 months of age in rural Ethiopia, making use of the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. Descriptive statistics were used to assess the WASH status of all rural children. Bivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess associations between nutritional status and WASH. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to adjust for confounders. A total of 7,209 children were included in the analysis, of which 867 (12.0%) were acutely malnourished. Proper toilet facilities (AOR = 0.63, 95% CI [0.46, 0.86]) and a water source close to home (AOR = 0.71, 95% CI [0.61, 0.83]) were associated with a lower prevalence of wasting. A safe water source for drinking (COR = 1.03, 95% CI [0.89, 1.19]) and a safe disposal of the child's stool (AOR = 0.97, 95% CI [0.84, 1.13]) were not significantly associated with acute malnutrition. These results suggest that WASH practices are related to acute malnutrition. Future studies-in particular intervention studies-should investigate whether improving WASH practices is effective in reducing malnutrition in infants and young children.

Anticipated burden and mitigation of carbon-dioxide-induced nutritional deficiencies and related diseases: A simulation modeling study

BACKGROUND

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are anticipated to decrease the zinc and iron concentrations of crops. The associated disease burden and optimal mitigation strategies remain unknown. We sought to understand where and to what extent increasing carbon dioxide concentrations may increase the global burden of nutritional deficiencies through changes in crop nutrient concentrations, and the effects of potential mitigation strategies.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

For each of 137 countries, we incorporated estimates of climate change, crop nutrient concentrations, dietary patterns, and disease risk into a microsimulation model of zinc and iron deficiency. These estimates were obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, US Department of Agriculture, Statistics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and Global Burden of Disease Project, respectively. In the absence of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, we estimated that zinc and iron deficiencies would induce 1,072.9 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally over the period 2015 to 2050 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 971.1-1,167.7). In the presence of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, we estimated that decreasing zinc and iron concentrations of crops would induce an additional 125.8 million DALYs globally over the same period (95% CrI: 113.6-138.9). This carbon-dioxide-induced disease burden is projected to disproportionately affect nations in the World Health Organization's South-East Asia and African Regions (44.0 and 28.5 million DALYs, respectively), which already have high existing disease burdens from zinc and iron deficiencies (364.3 and 299.5 million DALYs, respectively), increasing global nutritional inequalities. A climate mitigation strategy such as the Paris Agreement (an international agreement to keep global temperatures within 2°C of pre-industrial levels) would be expected to avert 48.2% of this burden (95% CrI: 47.8%-48.5%), while traditional public health interventions including nutrient supplementation and disease control programs would be expected to avert 26.6% of the burden (95% CrI: 23.8%-29.6%). Of the traditional public health interventions, zinc supplementation would be expected to avert 5.5%, iron supplementation 15.7%, malaria mitigation 3.2%, pneumonia mitigation 1.6%, and diarrhea mitigation 0.5%. The primary limitations of the analysis include uncertainty regarding how food consumption patterns may change with climate, how disease mortality rates will change over time, and how crop zinc and iron concentrations will decline from those at present to those in 2050.

CONCLUSIONS

Effects of increased carbon dioxide on crop nutrient concentrations are anticipated to exacerbate inequalities in zinc and iron deficiencies by 2050. Proposed Paris Agreement strategies are expected to be more effective than traditional public health measures to avert the increased inequality.

Risk factors for mortality and effect of correct fluid prescription in children with diarrhoea and dehydration without severe acute malnutrition admitted to Kenyan hospitals: an observational, association study

BACKGROUND

Diarrhoea causes many deaths in children younger than 5 years and identification of risk factors for death is considered a global priority. The effectiveness of currently recommended fluid management for dehydration in routine settings has also not been examined.

METHODS

For this observational, association study, we analysed prospective clinical data on admission, immediate treatment, and discharge of children age 1-59 months with diarrhoea and dehydration, which were routinely collected from 13 Kenyan hospitals. We analysed participants with full datasets using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression to assess risk factors for in-hospital death and effect of correct rehydration on early mortality (within 2 days).

FINDINGS

Between Oct 1, 2013, and Dec 1, 2016, 8562 children with diarrhoea and dehydration were admitted to hospital and eligible for inclusion in this analysis. Overall mortality was 9% (759 of 8562 participants) and case fatality was directly correlated with severity. Most children (7184 [84%] of 8562) with diarrhoea and dehydration had at least one additional diagnosis (comorbidity). Age of 12 months or younger (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1·71, 95% CI 1·42-2·06), female sex (1·41, 1·19-1·66), diarrhoea duration of more than 14 days (2·10, 1·42-3·12), abnormal respiratory signs (3·62, 2·95-4·44), abnormal circulatory signs (2·29, 1·89-2·77), pallor (2·15, 1·76-2·62), use of intravenous fluid (proxy for severity; 1·68, 1·41-2·00), and abnormal neurological signs (3·07, 2·54-3·70) were independently associated with in-hospital mortality across hospitals. Signs of dehydration alone were not associated with in-hospital deaths (AOR 1·08, 0·87-1·35). Correct fluid prescription significantly reduced the risk of early mortality (within 2 days) in all subgroups: abnormal respiratory signs (AOR 1·23, 0·68-2·24), abnormal circulatory signs (0·95, 0·53-1·73), pallor (1·70, 0·95-3·02), dehydration signs only (1·50, 0·79-2·88), and abnormal neurological signs (0·86, 0·51-1·48).

INTERPRETATION

Children at risk of in-hospital death are those with complex presentations rather than uncomplicated dehydration, and the prescription of recommended rehydration guidelines reduces risk of death. Strategies to optimise the delivery of recommended guidance should be accompanied by studies on the management of dehydration in children with comorbidities, the vulnerability of young girls, and the delivery of immediate care.

FUNDING

The Wellcome Trust.

Pneumonia Mortality in Children Aged <5 Years in 56 Countries: A Retrospective Analysis of Trends from 1960 to 2012

Background

Pneumonia is now the second leading cause of death for children aged <5 years worldwide. However, analyses of the long-term evolution of under-5 mortality from pneumonia are still scarce in the literature. We aimed to explore long-term trends of under-5 mortality from pneumonia in 56 countries from 1960 to 2012.

Methods

Data on under-5 mortality from pneumonia were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. Long-term trends were assessed for 56 countries and for 4 national income transition groups. We also used joinpoint regression analysis to detect distinct period segments of long-term trends and estimate the annual percent of changes of each period segment.

Results

The average mortality rate from pneumonia for children aged 0-4 years in 56 countries declined from 163.0 per 100000 children (95% confidence interval [CI], 119.4 to 212.8) in 1960 to 9.9 per 100000 children (95% CI, 6.4 to 13.4) in 2012, with an average annual percent of change of -5.6% (95% CI, -7.2% to -3.9%). The temporal trends of childhood mortality were different between national income transition groups.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest a striking overall downward trend in under-5 mortality from pneumonia between 1960 and 2012. However, the rate and absolute terms of decline differ by national income transition group. These variable patterns between national income transition groups may inform further intervention setting and priority setting.

Neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality and morbidity burden in the Eastern Mediterranean region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

OBJECTIVES

Although substantial reductions in under-5 mortality have been observed during the past 35 years, progress in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) has been uneven. This paper provides an overview of child mortality and morbidity in the EMR based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.

METHODS

We used GBD 2015 study results to explore under-5 mortality and morbidity in EMR countries.

RESULTS

In 2015, 755,844 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 712,064-801,565) children under 5 died in the EMR. In the early neonatal category, deaths in the EMR decreased by 22.4%, compared to 42.4% globally. The rate of years of life lost per 100,000 population under 5 decreased 54.38% from 177,537 (173,812-181,463) in 1990 to 80,985 (76,308-85,876) in 2015; the rate of years lived with disability decreased by 0.57% in the EMR compared to 9.97% globally.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings call for accelerated action to decrease child morbidity and mortality in the EMR. Governments and organizations should coordinate efforts to address this burden. Political commitment is needed to ensure that child health receives the resources needed to end preventable deaths.

Burden of lower respiratory infections in the Eastern Mediterranean Region between 1990 and 2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

OBJECTIVES

We used data from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study (GBD) to calculate the burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) in the 22 countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2015.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic analysis of mortality and morbidity data for LRI and its specific etiologic factors, including pneumococcus, Haemophilus influenzae type b, Respiratory syncytial virus, and influenza virus. We used modeling methods to estimate incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We calculated burden attributable to known risk factors for LRI.

RESULTS

In 2015, LRIs were the fourth-leading cause of DALYs, causing 11,098,243 (95% UI 9,857,095-12,396,566) DALYs and 191,114 (95% UI 170,934-210,705) deaths. The LRI DALY rates were higher than global estimates in 2015. The highest and lowest age-standardized rates of DALYs were observed in Somalia and Lebanon, respectively. Undernutrition in childhood and ambient particulate matter air pollution in the elderly were the main risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings call for public health strategies to reduce the level of risk factors in each age group, especially vulnerable child and elderly populations.

Status and drivers of maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health in the Islamic world: a comparative analysis

BACKGROUND

The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) period saw dramatic gains in health goals MDG 4 and MDG 5 for improving child and maternal health. However, many Muslim countries in the south Asian, Middle Eastern, and African regions lagged behind. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the status of, progress in, and key determinants of reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health in Muslim majority countries (MMCs). The specific objectives were to understand the current status and progress in reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health in MMCs, and the determinants of child survival among the least developed countries among the MMCs; to explore differences in outcomes and the key contextual determinants of health between MMCs and non-MMCs; and to understand the health service coverage and contextual determinants that differ between best and poor or moderate performing MMCs.

METHODS

In this country-level ecological study, we examined data from between 1990 and 2015 from multiple publicly available data repositories. We examined 47 MMCs, of which 26 were among the 75 high-burden Countdown to 2015 countries. These 26 MMCs were compared with 48 non-Muslim Countdown countries. We also examined characteristics of the eight best performing MMCs that had accelerated improvement in child survival (ie, that reached their MDG 4 targets). We estimated adolescent, maternal, under-5, and newborn mortality, and stillbirths, and the causes of death, essential interventions coverage, and contextual determinants for all MMCs and comparative groups using standardised methods. We also did a hierarchical multivariable analysis of determinants of under-5 mortality and newborn mortality in low-income and middle-income MMCs.

FINDINGS

Despite notable reductions between 1990 and 2015, MMCs compared with a global esimate of all countries including MMCs had higher mortality rates, and MMCs relative to non-MMCs within Countdown countries also performed worse. Coverage of essential interventions across the continuum of care was on average lower among MMCs, especially for indicators of reproductive health, prenatal care, delivery, and labour, and childhood vaccines. Outcomes within MMCs for mortality and many reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health indicators varied considerably. Structural and contextual factors, especially state governance, conflict, and women and girl's empowerment indicators, were significantly worse in MMCs compared with non-MMCs within the high-burden Countdown countries, and were shown to be strongly associated with child and newborn mortality within low-income and middle-income MMCs. In adjusted hierarchical models, among other factors, under-5 mortality in MMCs increased with more refugees originating from a country (β=23·67, p=0·0116), and decreased with better political stability or absence of terrorism (β=-0·99, p=0·0285), greater political rights or government effectiveness (β=-1·17, p<0·0001), improvements in log gross national income per capita (β=-4·44, p<0·0001), higher total adult literacy (β=-1·69, p<0·0001), higher female adult literacy (β=-0·97, p<0·0001), and greater female to male enrolment in secondary school (β=-16·1, p<0·0001). The best performing MMCs were Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Morocco, Niger, and Senegal, which had higher coverage of family planning interventions and newborn or child vaccinations, and excelled in many of the above contextual determinants when compared with moderate or poorly performing MMCs.

INTERPRETATION

The status and progress in reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health is heterogeneous among MMCs, with little indication that religion and its practice affects outcomes systemically. Some Islamic countries such as Niger and Bangladesh have made great progress, despite poverty. Key findings from this study have policy and programmatic implications that could be prioritised by national heads of state and policy makers, development partners, funders, and the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation to scale up and improve these health outcomes in Muslim countries in the post-2015 era.

FUNDING

US Fund for UNICEF under the Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Survival, the Centre for Global Child Health, Hospital for Sick Children, and the Aga Khan University.

Determinants of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) non-severe pneumonia classification and care in Malawi health facilities: Analysis of a national facility census

Background

Research shows inadequate Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI)-pneumonia care in various low-income settings but evidence is largely from small-scale studies with limited evidence of patient-, provider- and facility-levels determinants of IMCI non-severe pneumonia classification and its management.

Methods

The Malawi Service Provision Assessment 2013-2014 included 3149 outpatients aged 2-59 months with completed observations, interviews and re-examinations. Mixed-effects logistic regression models quantified the influence of patient-, provider and facility-level determinants on having IMCI non-severe pneumonia and its management in observed consultations.

Findings

Among 3149 eligible outpatients, 590 (18.7%) had IMCI non-severe pneumonia classification in re-examination. 228 (38.7%) classified cases received first-line antibiotics and 159 (26.9%) received no antibiotics. 18.6% with cough or difficult breathing had 60-second respiratory rates counted during consultations, and conducting this assessment was significantly associated with IMCI training ever received (odds ratio (OR) = 2.37, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29-4.31) and negative rapid diagnostic test results (OR = 3.21, 95% CI: 1.45-7.13). Older children had lower odds of assessments than infants (OR = 48-59 months: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.16-0.75). Children presenting with any of the following complaints also had reduced odds of assessment: fever, diarrhea, skin problem or any danger sign. First-line antibiotic treatment for classified cases was significantly associated with high temperatures (OR = 3.26, 95% CI: 1.24-8.55) while older children had reduced odds of first-line treatment compared to infants (OR = 48-59 months: 0.29, 95% CI: 0.10-0.83). RDT-confirmed malaria was a significant predictor of no antibiotic receipt for IMCI non-severe pneumonia (OR = 10.65, 95% CI: 2.39-47.36).

Conclusions

IMCI non-severe pneumonia care was sub-optimal in Malawi health facilities in 2013-2014 with inadequate assessments and prescribing practices that must be addressed to reduce this leading cause of mortality. Child's symptoms and age, malaria diagnosis and provider training were primary influences on assessment and treatment practices. Current evidence could be used to better target IMCI training and support to improve pneumonia care for sick children in Malawi facilities.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of revised WHO guidelines for management of childhood pneumonia in 74 Countdown countries

Background

Treatment of childhood pneumonia is a key priority in low–income countries, with substantial resource implications. WHO revised their guidelines for the management of childhood pneumonia in 2013. We estimated and compared the resource requirements, total direct medical cost and cost-effectiveness of childhood pneumonia management in 74 countries with high burden of child mortality (Countdown countries) using the 2005 and 2013 revised WHO guidelines.

Methods

We constructed a cost model using a bottom up approach to estimate the cost of childhood pneumonia management using the 2005 and 2013 WHO guidelines from a public provider perspective in 74 Countdown countries. The cost of pneumonia treatment was estimated, by country, for year 2013, including costs of medicines and service delivery at three different management levels. We also assessed country–specific lives saved and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted due to pneumonia treated in children aged below five years. The cost-effectiveness of pneumonia treatment was estimated in terms of cost per DALY averted by fully implementing WHO treatment guidelines relative to no treatment intervention for pneumonia.

Results

Achieving full treatment coverage with the 2005 WHO guidelines was estimated to cost US$ 2.9 (1.9–4.2) billion compared to an estimated US$ 1.8 (0.8–3.0) billion for the revised 2013 WHO guidelines in these countries. Pneumonia management in young children following WHO treatment guidelines could save up to 39.8 million DALYs compared to a zero coverage scenario in the year 2013 in the 74 Countdown countries. The median cost-effectiveness ratio per DALY averted in 74 countries was substantially lower for the 2013 guidelines: US$ 26.6 (interquartile range IQR: 17.7–45.9) vs US$ 38.3 (IQR: US$ 26.2–86.9) per DALY averted for the 2005 guideline respectively.

Conclusions

Child pneumonia management as detailed in standard WHO guidelines is a very cost–effective intervention. Implementation of the 2013 WHO guidelines is expected to result in a 39.5% reduction in treatment costs compared to the 2005 guidelines which could save up to US$ 1.16 (0.68–1.23) billion in the 74 Countdown countries, with potential savings greatest in low HIV burden countries which can implement effective community case management of pneumonia.

Safety and immunogenicity of 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in pneumococcal vaccine-naïve adults ≥50 years of age

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal disease remains a public health priority in adults. Safety and immunogenicity of 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV15) containing 13 serotypes included in 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) plus 2 additional serotypes (22F and 33F) was evaluated in adults ≥50 years old (NCT01513551).

METHODS

691 adults received one dose of PCV15, PCV13, or 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) and were followed 14 days for safety. Serotype-specific IgG geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) and opsonophagocytic activity (OPA) geometric mean titers (GMTs) were measured immediately prior and 1-month postvaccination.

RESULTS

Safety profiles were comparable across vaccination groups. PCV15 induced comparable levels of IgG GMCs and OPA GMTs to PCV13 and PPV23 for shared serotypes. Serotype-specific antibodies were numerically higher among recipients of PCV15 than PCV13 and PPV23 for 7 and 12 shared serotypes, respectively; and lower for 4 and 1 serotype(s), respectively. PCV15 induced higher IgG and OPA antibodies than PCV13 or PPV23 for serotypes unique to PCV15 (22F and 33F not in PCV13; 6A not in PPV23).

CONCLUSIONS

PCV15 displayed an acceptable safety profile and induced IgG and OPA to all 15 serotypes included in the vaccine, at levels comparable to PCV13 and PPV23 for shared serotypes with these vaccines. Study identification: V114-002. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV identifier: NCT01513551. © 2018 Merck & Co., Inc.

Proactive community case management and child survival in periurban Mali

The majority of the world's population lives in urban areas, and regions with the highest under-five mortality rates are urbanising rapidly. This 7-year interrupted time series study measured early access to care and under-five mortality over the course of a proactive community case management (ProCCM) intervention in periurban Mali. Using a cluster-based, population-weighted sampling methodology, we conducted independent cross-sectional household surveys at baseline and at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72 and 84 months later in the intervention area. The ProCCM intervention had five key components: (1) active case detection by community health workers (CHWs), (2) CHW doorstep care, (3) monthly dedicated supervision for CHWs, (4) removal of user fees and (5) primary care infrastructure improvements and staff capacity building. Under-five mortality rate was calculated using a Cox proportional hazard survival regression. We measured the percentage of children initiating effective antimalarial treatment within 24 hours of symptom onset and the percentage of children reported to be febrile within the previous 2 weeks. During the intervention, the rate of early effective antimalarial treatment of children 0-59 months more than doubled, from 14.7% in 2008 to 35.3% in 2015 (OR 3.198, P<0.0001). The prevalence of febrile illness among children under 5 years declined after 7 years of the intervention from 39.7% at baseline to 22.6% in 2015 (OR 0.448, P<0.0001). Communities where ProCCM was implemented have achieved an under-five mortality rate at or below 28/1000 for the past 6 years. In 2015, under-five mortality was 7/1000 (HR 0.039, P<0.0001). Further research is needed to elucidate the mechanisms of action and generalizability of ProCCM.

Association between health service use and diarrhoea management approach among caregivers of under-five children in Nepal

INTRODUCTION

Diarrhoea among children under-five is a serious public health problem in many developing countries, including Nepal. This study aimed to examine the association between health service utilization and diarrhoea management approaches among children under-five years in Nepal.

METHODS

The combined 2001, 2006 and 2011 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data sets were examined and the sample included 2,655 children aged 0-59 months who had diarrhoea 2-weeks prior to the each survey. Multilevel logistic regression analyses that adjust for clustering and sampling weight were used to examine the association between health service utilization and diarrhoea management approaches (Oral Rehydration Solution, increased fluids and/or continued feeding).

RESULTS

The prevalence of extra fluids decreased significantly from 27% in 2001 to 15% in 2011 while that of ORS increased significantly from 32% in 2001 to 40% in 2011. The prevalence of continued feeding fluctuated between 83-89%. Multivariate analysis revealed that caregivers whose children received treatment or advice from health care providers during diarrhoea were 5.78 times more likely to treat diarrhoea with Oral Rehydration Solution (ORS) [adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 5.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.50, 7.44], 1.56 (aOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.19, 2.05) times more likely to offer extra fluids, and 2.25 (aOR 2.25, 95% CI 1.50, 3.39) times more likely to use continued feeding than those who did not seek advice.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that health service utilization significantly improves diarrhoea management among under-five children. However, a broader national diarrhoeal disease control program to further reduce diarrhoea related morbidity and mortality in Nepal should focus on educating caregivers about the importance of the use of ORS as well as increase fluid intake to children under-five years with diarrhoea.

Effect and cost-effectiveness of educating mothers about childhood DPT vaccination on immunisation uptake, knowledge, and perceptions in Uttar Pradesh, India: A randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

To assess the effect of health information on immunisation uptake in rural India, we conducted an individually randomised controlled trial of health information messages targeting the mothers of unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated children through home visits in rural Uttar Pradesh, India.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The study tested a brief intervention that provided mothers face-to-face with information on the benefits of the tetanus vaccine. Participants were 722 mothers of children aged 0-36 months who had not received 3 doses of diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus (DPT) vaccine (DPT3). Mothers were randomly assigned in a ratio of 1:1:1 to 1 of 3 study arms: mothers in the first treatment group received information framed as a gain (e.g., the child is less likely to get tetanus and more likely to be healthy if vaccinated), mothers in the second treatment group received information framed in terms of a loss (e.g., the child is more likely to get tetanus and suffer ill health if not vaccinated), and the third arm acted as a control group, with no information given to the mother. Surveys were conducted at baseline (September 2015) and after the intervention (April 2016). The primary outcome was the proportion of children who had received DPT3 measured after 7 months of follow-up. The analysis was by intention to treat. A total of 16 (2.2%) participants were lost to follow-up. The coverage of DPT3 was 28% in the control group and 43% in the pooled information groups, giving a risk difference of 15 percentage points (95% CI: 7% to 22%, p < 0.001) and a relative risk of 1.52 (95% CI: 1.2 to 1.9, p < 0.001). The information intervention increased the rate of measles vaccination by 22 percentage points (risk difference: 22%, 95% CI: 14% to 30%, p < 0.001; relative risk: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.29 to 1.80) and the rate of full immunisation by 14 percentage points (risk difference: 14%, 95% CI: 8% to 21%, p < 0.001; relative risk: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.29 to 2.29). It had a large positive effect on knowledge of the causes, symptoms, and prevention of tetanus but no effect on perceptions of vaccine efficacy. There was no difference in the proportion of children with DPT3 between the group that received information framed as a loss and the group that received information framed as a gain (risk difference: 4%, 95% CI: -5% to 13%; p = 0.352; relative risk: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.90 to 1.36). The cost per disability-adjusted life year averted of providing information was US$186, making the intervention highly cost-effective with respect to the WHO-recommended threshold of once the gross domestic product per capita (US$793 in the case of Uttar Pradesh). Key study limitations include the modest sample size for this trial, limiting power to detect small differences in the framing of information, and the potential for contamination among households.

CONCLUSIONS

Providing mothers of unvaccinated/incompletely vaccinated children with information on tetanus and the benefits of DPT vaccination substantially increased immunisation coverage and was highly cost-effective. The framing of the health information message did not appear to matter.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN84560580.

Rapid intravenous rehydration of children with acute gastroenteritis and dehydration: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends rapid intravenous rehydration, using fluid volumes of 70-100mls/kg over 3–6 h, with some of the initial volume given rapidly as initial fluid boluses to treat hypovolaemic shock for children with acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and severe dehydration. The evidence supporting the safety and efficacy of rapid versus slower rehydration remains uncertain.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on 11th of May 2017 comparing different rates of intravenous fluid therapy in children with AGE and moderate or severe dehydration, using standard search terms. Two authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. Non-RCTs and non-English articles were excluded. The primary endpoint was mortality and secondary endpoints included adverse events (safety) and treatment efficacy.

Main results

Of the 1390 studies initially identified, 18 were assessed for eligibility. Of these, 3 studies (n = 464) fulfilled a priori criteria for inclusion; most studied children with moderate dehydration and none were conducted in resource-poor settings. Volumes and rates of fluid replacement varied from 20 to 60 ml/kg given over 1-2 h (fast) versus 2-4 h (slow). There was substantial heterogeneity in methodology between the studies with only one adjudicated to be of high quality. There were no deaths in any study. Safety endpoints only identified oedema (n = 6) and dysnatraemia (n = 2). Pooled analysis showed no significant difference between the rapid and slow intravenous rehydration groups for the proportion of treatment failures (N = 468): pooled RR 1.30 (95% CI: 0.87, 1.93) and the readmission rates (N = 439): pooled RR 1.39 (95% CI: 0.68, 2.85).

Conclusions

Despite wide implementation of WHO Plan C guideline for severe AGE, we found no clinical evaluation in resource-limited settings, and only limited evaluation of the rate and volume of rehydration in other parts of the world. Recent concerns over aggressive fluid expansion warrants further research to inform guidelines on rates of intravenous rehydration therapy for severe AGE.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12887-018-1006-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cost of management of severe pneumonia in young children: systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Childhood pneumonia is a major cause of childhood illness and the second leading cause of child death globally. Understanding the costs associated with the management of childhood pneumonia is essential for resource allocation and priority setting for child health.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review to identify studies reporting data on the cost of management of pneumonia in children younger than 5 years old. We collected unpublished cost data on non-severe, severe and very severe pneumonia through collaboration with an international working group. We extracted data on cost per episode, duration of hospital stay and unit cost of interventions for the management of pneumonia. The mean (95% confidence interval, CI) and median (interquartile range, IQR) treatment costs were estimated and reported where appropriate.

RESULTS

We identified 24 published studies eligible for inclusion and supplemented these with data from 10 unpublished studies. The 34 studies included in the cost analysis contained data on more than 95 000 children with pneumonia from both low- and-middle income countries (LMIC) and high-income countries (HIC) covering all 6 WHO regions. The total cost (per episode) for management of severe pneumonia was US$ 4.3 (95% CI 1.5-8.7), US$ 51.7 (95% CI 17.4-91.0) and US$ 242.7 (95% CI 153.6-341.4)-559.4 (95% CI 268.9-886.3) in community, out-patient facilities and different levels of hospital in-patient settings in LMIC. Direct medical cost for severe pneumonia in hospital inpatient settings was estimated to be 26.6%-115.8% of patients' monthly household income in LMIC. The mean direct non-medical cost and indirect cost for severe pneumonia management accounted for 0.5-31% of weekly household income. The mean length of stay (LOS) in hospital for children with severe pneumonia was 5.8 (IQR 5.3-6.4) and 7.7 (IQR 5.5-9.9) days in LMIC and HIC respectively for these children.

CONCLUSION

This is the most comprehensive review to date of cost data from studies on the management of childhood pneumonia and these data should be helpful for health services planning and priority setting by national programmes and international agencies.

Exploring health care seeking knowledge, perceptions and practices for childhood diarrhea and pneumonia and their context in a rural Pakistani community

Background

Where access to facilities for childhood diarrhea and pneumonia is inadequate, community case management (CCM) is an effective way of improving access to care. In Pakistan, utilization of CCM for these diseases through the Lady Health Worker Program remains low. Challenges of access to facilities persist leading to delayed care and poor outcomes. Estimating caregiver knowledge, understanding their perceptions and practices, and recognizing how these are related to care seeking decisions about childhood diarrhea and pneumonia is crucial to bring about coherence between supply and demand-side practices.

Methods

Data was collected from family caregivers to explore their knowledge, perceptions and practices regarding childhood diarrhea and pneumonia. Data from a household survey with 7025 caregivers, seven focus group discussion (FGDs), seven in-depth interviews (IDIs), and 20 detailed narrative interviews are used to explore caregiver knowledge, perceptions and practices.

Results

Household survey shows that most family caregivers recognize main signs and symptoms of diarrhea such as loose stools (76%). Fewer recognize signs and symptoms of pneumonia such as breathing problems (21%). Few caregivers (18%) have confidence in lady health workers’ (LHWs) ability to treat childhood diarrhea and pneumonia. Care seeking from LHWs remains negligible (< 1%). Caregivers overwhelmingly prefer to seek care from doctors (97%). Seventy-five percent caregivers sought care from private providers and 45% from public providers.

FGDs, IDIs, and narrative interviews show that care mostly begins with home remedies and sometimes self-prescribed medicines. Treatment delays occur because of caregiver inability to recognize disease, use of home remedies, financial constraints, and low utilization of community based LHW services. Caregivers do not seek care from LHWs because of lack of trust and LHWs’ inability to provide medicines. If finances allow, private doctors, who caregivers perceive as more responsive, are preferred over public sector doctors. Financial resources, availability of time, support for household chores by family and community determine whether, when, and from whom caregivers seek care.

Conclusions

Many children do not receive recommended diarrhea and pneumonia treatment on time. Taking into consideration caregiver concerns, adequate supply of medicines to LHWs, improved facility level care could improve care seeking practices and child health outcomes.

Trial registration

The trial is registered with ‘Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry’. Registration Number: ACTRN12613001261707. Registered 18 November 2013.

Causes of death in hospitalized children younger than 12 years of age in a Chinese hospital: a 10 year study

Background

In China, the majority (77%) of urban children die in hospitals. Hospital-based review could provide insight leading to improvements in clinical practice and increase the survival of critically ill children. The aim of the present study is to identify the trends of immediate causes and chronic underlying diseases associated with deaths of children at one of the largest teaching hospitals in China over a period of 10 years (2006–2015).

Methods

A retrospective analysis of data of all children aged 1 month to 11 years who died at Xinhua Hospital between 2006 and 2015. Demographic details, main causes of deaths, and chronic underlying diseases were reviewed.

Results

Case fatality rate was 0.55% (510/93,443) and it represented 0.41–0.80% deaths per year. Overall, the most common immediate causes of deaths in hospitalized children were pneumonia (36.7%), sepsis (13.5%), tumour (11.4%), followed by nontraumatic intracranial or gastrointestinal hemorrhage (10.6%) and cardiac shock (9.6%). Over 70% of the deaths in children were complicated with chronic underlying diseases. Congenital abnormality was the most frequent chronic underlying disease observed in infants (60.3%) and tumour was the main chronic underlying disease in toddlers (31.1%) and older children (44%).

Conclusions

Infectious diseases, especially pneumonia, were the major immediate causes of deaths, and the mortality in the study population decreased with age. Tumour and other noninfectious disease accounted for more deaths in older children. Chronic underlying diseases were found in most deaths of children.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12887-017-0981-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cost-effective options for the prevention and management of gastrointestinal and liver disease in the Asia-Pacific region

The Asia-Pacific region contains more than half of the world's population and is markedly heterogeneous in relation to income levels and the provision of public and private health services. For low-income countries, the major health priorities are child and maternal health. In contrast, priorities for high-income countries include vascular disease, cancer, diabetes, dementia, and mental health disorders as well as chronic inflammatory disorders such as hepatitis B and hepatitis C. Cost-effectiveness analyses are methods for assessing the gains in health relative to the costs of different health interventions. Methods for measuring health outcomes include years of life saved (or lost), quality-adjusted life years, and disability-adjusted life years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio measures the cost (usually in US dollars) per life year saved, quality-adjusted life year gained, or disability-adjusted life year averted of one intervention relative to another. In low-income countries, approximately 50% of infant deaths (< 5 years) are caused by gastroenteritis, the major pathogen being rotavirus infection. Rotavirus vaccines appear to be cost-effective but, thus far, have not been widely adopted. In contrast, infant vaccination for hepatitis B is promoted in most countries with a striking reduction in the prevalence of infection in vaccinated individuals. Cost-effectiveness analyses have also been applied to newer and more expensive drugs for hepatitis B and C and to government-sponsored programs for the early detection of hepatocellular, gastric, and colorectal cancer. Most of these studies reveal that newer drugs and surveillance programs for cancer are only marginally cost-effective in the setting of a high-income country.

Gastroenteritis and Intractable Diarrhea in Newborns

Gastroenteritis (GE) still represents a major cause of morbidity and mortality in children worldwide. Although the implementation of effective measures resulted in a significant decrease of global mortality, much remains to be done. The burden of GE in the neonatal age is generally reduced in relation to some protective factors (breastfeeding, minimal exposure to water and contaminated food, passive maternal immunity). In newborns, the contribution of the various causative agents could differ from that of the other pediatric age groups, nevertheless Rotavirus and pathogenic strains of E. coli remain the main etiologies. The acquisition of the pathogen generally occurs through the contaminated birth canal or by the use of contaminated tools, objects, or hands of the caregivers. The clinical presentation may vary widely from an acute, self-limiting disease to life-threatening complicated infections. The assessment of the dehydration and its rapid correction represent the cornerstones of the management of any GE. Antibiotic therapy should be reserved to cases with systemic symptoms, severe dehydration, or in the presence of bloody diarrhea. While the occurrence of diarrhea in the neonatal age is mainly caused by acute gastrointestinal infections, differential diagnosis with several other diseases including forms of severe congenital disorders should be considered.

Effectiveness of two community-based strategies on disease knowledge and health behaviour regarding malaria, diarrhoea and pneumonia in Ghana

Background

Ghana has developed two community-based strategies that aim to increase access to quality treatment for malaria, diarrhoea and suspected pneumonia, and to improve household and family practices: integrated Community Case Management (iCCM) and Community-based Health Planning and Services (CHPS). The objective of the study was to assess the effectiveness of iCCM and CHPS on disease knowledge and health behaviour regarding malaria, diarrhoea and pneumonia.

Methods

A household survey was conducted two and eight years after implementation of iCCM in the Volta and Northern Regions of Ghana respectively, and more than ten years of CHPS implementation in both regions. The study population included 1356 carers of children under- five years of age who had fever, diarrhoea and/or cough in the two weeks prior to the interview. Disease knowledge was assessed based on the knowledge of causes and identification of signs of severe disease and its association with the sources of health education messages received. Health behaviour was assessed based on reported prompt care seeking behaviour, adherence to treatment regime, utilization of mosquito nets and having improved sanitation facilities, and its association with the sources of health education messages received.

Results

Health education messages from community-based agents (CBAs) in the Northern Region were associated with the identification of at least two signs of severe malaria (adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) 1.8, 95%CI 1.0, 3.3, p = 0.04), two practices that can cause diarrhoea (adjusted OR 4.7, 95%CI 1.4, 15.5, p = 0.02) 0and two signs of severe pneumonia (adjusted OR 7.7, 95%CI2.2, 26.5, p = 0.01)-the later also associated with prompt care seeking behaviour (p = 0.04). In the Volta Region, receiving messages on diarrhoea from CHPS was associated with the identification of at least two signs of severe diarrhoea (adjusted OR 3.6, 95%CI 1.4, 9.0), p = 0.02). iCCM was associated with prompt care seeking behaviour in the Volta Region and CHPS with prompt care seeking behaviour in the Northern Region (p < 0.5).

Conclusions

Both iCCM and CHPS were associated with disease knowledge and health behaviour, but this was more pronounced for iCCM and in the Northern Region. HBC should continue to be considered as the strategy through which community-IMCI is implemented.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-017-4964-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Impact of multisectoral health determinants on child mortality 1980-2010: An analysis by country baseline mortality

INTRODUCTION

Some health determinants require relatively stronger health system capacity and socioeconomic development than others to impact child mortality. Few quantitative analyses have analyzed how the impact of health determinants varies by mortality level.

METHODS

149 low- and middle-income countries were stratified into high, moderate, low, and very low baseline levels of child mortality in 1990. Data for 52 health determinants were collected for these countries for 1980-2010. To quantify how changes in health determinants were associated with mortality decline, univariable and multivariable regression models were constructed. An advanced statistical technique that is new for child mortality analyses-MM-estimation with first differences and country clustering-controlled for outliers, fixed effects, and variation across decades.

FINDINGS

Some health determinants (immunizations, education) were consistently associated with child mortality reduction across all mortality levels. Others (staff availability, skilled birth attendance, fertility, water and sanitation) were associated with child mortality reduction mainly in low or very low mortality settings. The findings indicate that the impact of some health determinants on child mortality was only apparent with stronger health systems, public infrastructure and levels of socioeconomic development, whereas the impact of other determinants was apparent at all stages of development. Multisectoral progress was essential to mortality reduction at all baseline mortality levels.

CONCLUSION

Policy-makers can use such analyses to direct investments in health and non-health sectors and to set five-year child mortality targets appropriate for their baseline mortality levels and local context.

Burden of hospitalized childhood community-acquired pneumonia: A retrospective cross-sectional study in Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Republic of Korea

BACKGROUND

Few studies describe the community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) burden in children in Asia. We estimated the proportion of all CAP hospitalizations in children from nine hospitals across the Republic of Korea (high-income), Indonesia, Malaysia (middle-income), and Vietnam (low/middle-income).

METHODS

Over a one or two-year period, children <5 years hospitalized with CAP were identified using ICD-10 discharge codes. Cases were matched to standardized definitions of suspected (S-CAP), confirmed (C-CAP), or bacterial CAP (B-CAP) used in a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine efficacy study (COMPAS). Median total direct medical costs of CAP-related hospitalizations were calculated.

RESULTS

Vietnam (three centers): 7591 CAP episodes were identified with 4.3% (95% confidence interval 4.2;4.4) S-CAP, 3.3% (3.2;3.4) C-CAP and 1.4% (1.3;1.4) B-CAP episodes of all-cause hospitalization in children aged <5 years. The B-CAP case fatality rate (CFR) was 1.3%. Malaysia (two centers): 1027 CAP episodes were identified with 2.7% (2.6;2.9); 2.6% (2.4;2.8); 0.04% (0.04;0.1) due to S-CAP, C-CAP, and B-CAP, respectively. One child with B-CAP died. Indonesia (one center): 960 CAP episodes identified with 18.0% (17.0;19.1); 16.8% (15.8;17.9); 0.3% (0.2;0.4) due to S-CAP, C-CAP, and B-CAP, respectively. The B-CAP CFR was 20%. Korea (three centers): 3151 CAP episodes were identified with 21.1% (20.4;21.7); 11.8% (11.2;12.3); 2.4% (2.1;2.7) due to S-CAP, C-CAP, and B-CAP, respectively. There were no deaths.

COSTS

CAP-related hospitalization costs were highest for B-CAP episodes: 145.00 (Vietnam) to 1013.3 USD (Korea) per episode.

CONCLUSION

CAP hospitalization causes an important health and cost burden in all four countries studied (NMRR-12-50-10793).

Lives Saved Tool (LiST) costing: a module to examine costs and prioritize interventions

Background

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals will require careful allocation of resources in order to achieve the highest impact. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) has been used widely to calculate the impact of maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) interventions for program planning and multi-country estimation in several Lancet Series commissions. As use of the LiST model increases, many have expressed a desire to cost interventions within the model, in order to support budgeting and prioritization of interventions by countries. A limited LiST costing module was introduced several years ago, but with gaps in cost types. Updates to inputs have now been added to make the module fully functional for a range of uses.

Methods

This paper builds on previous work that developed an initial version of the LiST costing module to provide costs for MNCH interventions using an ingredients-based costing approach. Here, we update in 2016 the previous econometric estimates from 2013 with newly-available data and also include above-facility level costs such as program management. The updated econometric estimates inform percentages of intervention-level costs for some direct costs and indirect costs. These estimates add to existing values for direct cost requirements for items such as drugs and supplies and required provider time which were already available in LiST Costing.

Results

Results generated by the LiST costing module include costs for each intervention, as well as disaggregated costs by intervention including drug and supply costs, labor costs, other recurrent costs, capital costs, and above-service delivery costs. These results can be combined with mortality estimates to support prioritization of interventions by countries.

Conclusions

The LiST costing module provides an option for countries to identify resource requirements for scaling up a maternal, neonatal, and child health program, and to examine the financial impact of different resource allocation strategies. It can be a useful tool for countries as they seek to identify the best investments for scarce resources. The purpose of the LiST model is to provide a tool to make resource allocation decisions in a strategic planning process through prioritizing interventions based on resulting impact on maternal and child mortality and morbidity.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-017-4738-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

How is the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) used in the global health community? Results of a mixed-methods LiST user study

BACKGROUND

The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is a computer-based model that estimates the impact of scaling up key interventions to improve maternal, newborn and child health. Initially developed to inform the Lancet Child Survival Series of 2003, the functionality and scope of LiST have been expanded greatly over the past 10 years. This study sought to "take stock" of how LiST is now being used and for what purposes.

METHODS

We conducted a quantitative survey of LiST users, qualitative interviews with a smaller sample of LiST users and members of the LiST team at Johns Hopkins University, and a literature review of studies involving LiST analyses.

RESULTS

LiST is being used by donors, international organizations, governments, NGOs and academic institutions to assist program evaluation, inform strategic planning and evidenced-based decision-making, and advocate for high-impact interventions. Some organizations have integrated LiST into internal workflows and built in-house capacity for using LiST, while other organizations rely on the LiST team for support and to outsource analyses. In addition to being a popular stand-alone software, LiST is used as a calculation engine for other applications.

CONCLUSIONS

The Lives Saved Tool has been reported to be a useful model in maternal, newborn, and child health. With continued commitment, LiST should remain as a part of the international health toolkit used to assess maternal, newborn and child health programs.

Social and environmental determinants of child health in Mongolia across years of rapid economic growth: 2000-2010

BACKGROUND

To understand the effect of economic growth on health, we investigated the trend in socio-economic and regional determinants of child health in Mongolia. This Central Asian country had the fastest economic growth amongst low and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2010 and a healthcare system in transition.

METHODS

Data was from Mongolian multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS) in 2000, 2005 and 2010. Child nutrition/growth was measured by height-for-age z-score (HAZ), weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), prevalence of stunted (HAZ < -2) and underweight (WAZ < -2) children. Access to health care was measured by prevalence of fully immunised children <5 years. Multivariate multi-level logistic mixed modelling was used to estimate the effect of socio-economic and environmental health determinants on each outcome in each year; 2000, 2005 and 2010. T-tests were used to measure significant change in HAZ and WAZ over the decade.

RESULTS

Overall, from 2000 to 2010, there was a significant improvement (p < 0.001) in all three outcomes, but the effect of socio-economic factors increased on both stunting and weight. In 2000, region was a significant determinant: children living in three provinces were significantly more likely to be stunted and less likely to be immunised than Ulaanbaatar, but this was not significant by 2010. By 2010, none of the factors were significant determinants of immunisation in children. In 2000, economic status had no effect on stunting (OR = 0.91; 95%CI:0.49,1.66), however by 2010, children in the poorest economic quintile were 4 times more likely to be stunted than the richest (OR = 0.24; 95% CI:0.13,0.45; p < 0.001). The effect of maternal education on stunting prevalence continued over the 10 years, in both 2000 and 2010 children were twice as likely to be stunted if their mother had no education compared to university education (2000 OR = 0.45; 95% CI:0.28,0.73, p < 0.01,2010 OR =0.55; 95% CI:0.35,0.87, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Economic growth in Mongolia from 2000 to 2010 resulted in an increase in the effect of social determinants of child health; whilst focused policy improved access to immunisation. Children with less educated mothers and lower household incomes should be targeted in interventions to reduce health inequity.

MicroRNA‑20a promotes inflammation via the nuclear factor‑κB signaling pathway in pediatric pneumonia

Pneumonia is a common respiratory disease worldwide, which is preventable and treatable; however, it is recognized as a leading cause of mortality in children. The present study aimed to investigate the role and mechanism of microRNA (miR)‑20a in inflammation in pediatric pneumonia. Clinical serum samples were collected from children with pneumonia and healthy children. Initially, the serum expression levels of miR‑20a were detected by reverse transcription‑quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Subsequently, A549 cells were randomly divided into four groups: Control group; lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 1 µg/ml) group; LPS + miR‑20a group; and LPS + miR‑20a + pyrrolidine dithiocarbamate (PDTC; 100 mmol/l) group. The concentrations of interleukin‑6 (IL‑6), tumor necrosis factor (TNF)‑α and C‑reactive protein (CRP) in clinical serum samples and A549 cells were determined by ELISA. In addition, the protein expression levels of inhibitor of nuclear factor (NF)‑κB α (IκBα) and phosphorylated (p)‑NF‑κB were measured by western blotting. The results demonstrated that miR‑20a was upregulated in children with pneumonia and in lung cells with LPS‑induced inflammatory injury (P<0.01). In addition, compared with the LPS group, cells in the LPS + miR‑20a group exhibited increased expression levels of IL‑6, TNF‑α and CRP (P<0.05). Overexpression of miR‑20a also resulted in upregulation of the expression levels of IκBα and p‑NF‑κB compared with in the LPS group (P<0.05). Furthermore, treatment with the NF‑κB inhibitor PDTC inhibited the expression of inflammatory factors compared with in the LPS + miR‑20a group (P<0.05). In conclusion, the present study indicated that miR‑20a is upregulated in pediatric pneumonia, and overexpression of miR‑20a may promote inflammation through activation of the NF‑κB signaling pathway.

Disentangling the effects of a multiple behaviour change intervention for diarrhoea control in Zambia: a theory-based process evaluation

BACKGROUND

Diarrhoea is a leading cause of child death in Zambia. As elsewhere, the disease burden could be greatly reduced through caregiver uptake of existing prevention and treatment strategies. We recently reported the results of the Komboni Housewives intervention which tested a novel strategy employing motives including affiliation and disgust to improve caregiver practice of four diarrhoea control behaviours: exclusive breastfeeding; handwashing with soap; and correct preparation and use of oral rehydration salts (ORS) and zinc. The intervention was delivered via community events (women's forums and road shows), at health clinics (group session) and via radio. A cluster randomised trial revealed that the intervention resulted in a small improvement in exclusive breastfeeding practices, but was only associated with small changes in the other behaviours in areas with greater intervention exposure. This paper reports the findings of the process evaluation that was conducted alongside the trial to investigate how factors associated with intervention delivery and receipt influenced caregiver uptake of the target behaviours.

METHODS

Process data were collected from the eight peri-urban and rural intervention areas throughout the six-month implementation period and in all 16 clusters 4-6 weeks afterwards. Intervention implementation (fidelity, reach, dose delivered and recruitment strategies) and receipt (participant engagement and responses, and mediators) were explored through review of intervention activity logs, unannounced observation of intervention events, semi-structured interviews, focus groups with implementers and intervention recipients, and household surveys. Evaluation methods and analyses were guided by the intervention's theory of change and the evaluation framework of Linnan and Steckler.

RESULTS

Intervention reach was lower than intended: 39% of the surveyed population reported attending one or more face-to-face intervention event, of whom only 11% attended two or more intervention events. The intervention was not equally feasible to deliver in all settings: fewer events took place in remote rural areas, and the intervention did not adequately penetrate communities in several peri-urban sites where the population density was high, the population was slightly higher socio-economic status, recruitment was challenging, and numerous alternative sources of entertainment existed. Adaptations made by the implementers affected the fidelity of implementation of messages for all target behaviours. Incorrect messages were consequently recalled by intervention recipients. Participants were most receptive to the novel disgust and skills-based interactive demonstrations targeting exclusive breastfeeding and ORS preparation respectively. However, initial disgust elicitation was not followed by a change in associated psychological mediators, and social norms were not measurably changed.

CONCLUSIONS

The lack of measured behaviour change was likely due to issues with both the intervention's content and its delivery. Achieving high reach and intensity in community interventions delivered in diverse settings is challenging. Achieving high fidelity is also challenging when multiple behaviours are targeted for change. Further work using improved tools is needed to explore the use of subconscious motives in behaviour change interventions. To better uncover how and why interventions achieve their measured effects, process evaluations of complex interventions should develop and employ frameworks for investigation and interpretation that are structured around the intervention's theory of change and the local context.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was registered as part of the larger trial on 5 March 2014 with ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02081521 .

Estimating the cost of delivering direct nutrition interventions at scale: national and subnational level insights from India

India's national nutrition and health programmes are largely designed to provide evidence-based nutrition-specific interventions, but intervention coverage is low due to a combination of implementation challenges, capacity and financing gaps. Global cost estimates for nutrition are available but national and subnational costs are not. We estimated national and subnational costs of delivering recommended nutrition-specific interventions using the Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) costing approach. We compared costs of delivering the SUN interventions at 100% scale with those of nationally recommended interventions. Target populations (TP) for interventions were estimated using national population and nutrition data. Unit costs (UC) were derived from programmatic data. The cost of delivering an intervention at 100% coverage was calculated as (UC*projected TP). Cost estimates varied; estimates for SUN interventions were lower than estimates for nationally recommended interventions because of differences in choice of intervention, target group or unit cost. US$5.9bn/year are required to deliver a set of nationally recommended nutrition interventions at scale in India, while US$4.2bn are required for the SUN interventions. Cash transfers (49%) and food supplements (40%) contribute most to costs of nationally recommended interventions, while food supplements to prevent and treat malnutrition contribute most to the SUN costs. We conclude that although such costing is useful to generate broad estimates, there is an urgent need for further costing studies on the true unit costs of the delivery of nutrition-specific interventions in different local contexts to be able to project accurate national and subnational budgets for nutrition in India.

Can water, sanitation and hygiene help eliminate stunting? Current evidence and policy implications

Stunting is a complex and enduring challenge with far‐reaching consequences for those affected and society as a whole. To accelerate progress in eliminating stunting, broader efforts are needed that reach beyond the nutrition sector to tackle the underlying determinants of undernutrition. There is growing interest in how water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions might support strategies to reduce stunting in high‐burden settings, such as South Asia and sub‐Saharan Africa. This review article considers two broad questions: (1) can WASH interventions make a significant contribution to reducing the global prevalence of childhood stunting, and (2) how can WASH interventions be delivered to optimize their effect on stunting and accelerate progress? The evidence reviewed suggests that poor WASH conditions have a significant detrimental effect on child growth and development resulting from sustained exposure to enteric pathogens but also due to wider social and economic mechanisms. Realizing the potential of WASH to reduce stunting requires a redoubling of efforts to achieve universal access to these services as envisaged under the Sustainable Development Goals. It may also require new or modified WASH strategies that go beyond the scope of traditional interventions to specifically address exposure pathways in the first 2 years of life when the process of stunting is concentrated.

Diarrhea Morbidities in Small Areas: Accounting for Non-Stationarity in Sociodemographic Impacts using Bayesian Spatially Varying Coefficient Modelling

Model-based estimation of diarrhea risk and understanding the dependency on sociodemographic factors is important for prioritizing interventions. It is unsuitable to calibrate regression model with a single set of coefficients, especially for large spatial domains. For this purpose, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical varying coefficient model to account for non-stationarity in the covariates. We used the integrated nested Laplace approximation for parameter estimation. Diarrhea morbidities in Ghana motivated our empirical study. Results indicated improvement regarding model fit and epidemiological benefits. The findings highlighted substantial spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal heterogeneities in both diarrhea risk and the coefficients of the sociodemographic factors. Diarrhea risk in peri-urban and urban districts were 13.2% and 10.8% higher than rural districts, respectively. The varying coefficient model indicated further details, as the coefficients varied across districts. A unit increase in the proportion of inhabitants with unsafe liquid waste disposal was found to increase diarrhea risk by 11.5%, with higher percentages within the south-central parts through to the south-western parts. Districts with safe and unsafe drinking water sources unexpectedly had a similar risk, as were districts with safe and unsafe toilets. The findings show that site-specific interventions need to consider the varying effects of sociodemographic factors.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory tract infections in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2015 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and shows how the burden of LRI has changed in people of all ages.

METHODS

We estimated LRI mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study called the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We modelled LRI morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for LRI using two different counterfactual approaches, the first for viral pathogens, which incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of LRI and the prevalence of the aetiology in LRI episodes, and the second for bacterial pathogens, which uses a vaccine-probe approach. We used the Socio-demographic Index, which is a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in LRI-related mortality. The two leading risk factors for LRI disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), childhood undernutrition and air pollution, were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in LRI DALYs.

FINDINGS

In 2015, we estimated that LRIs caused 2·74 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·50 million to 2·86 million) and 103·0 million DALYs (95% UI 96·1 million to 109·1 million). LRIs have a disproportionate effect on children younger than 5 years, responsible for 704 000 deaths (95% UI 651 000-763 000) and 60.6 million DALYs (95ÙI 56·0-65·6). Between 2005 and 2015, the number of deaths due to LRI decreased by 36·9% (95% UI 31·6 to 42·0) in children younger than 5 years, and by 3·2% (95% UI -0·4 to 6·9) in all ages. Pneumococcal pneumonia caused 55·4% of LRI deaths in all ages, totalling 1 517 388 deaths (95% UI 857 940-2 183 791). Between 2005 and 2015, improvements in air pollution exposure were responsible for a 4·3% reduction in LRI DALYs and improvements in childhood undernutrition were responsible for an 8·9% reduction.

INTERPRETATION

LRIs are the leading infectious cause of death and the fifth-leading cause of death overall; they are the second-leading cause of DALYs. At the global level, the burden of LRIs has decreased dramatically in the last 10 years in children younger than 5 years, although the burden in people older than 70 years has increased in many regions. LRI remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to decrease indoor and ambient air pollution, improve childhood nutrition, and scale up the use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children and adults will be essential in reducing the global burden of LRI.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Microorganisms Associated With Pneumonia in Children <5 Years of Age in Developing and Emerging Countries: The GABRIEL Pneumonia Multicenter, Prospective, Case-Control Study

Background

Pneumonia, the leading infectious cause of child mortality globally, mainly afflicts developing countries. This prospective observational study aimed to assess the microorganisms associated with pneumonia in children aged <5 years in developing and emerging countries.

Methods

A multicenter, case-control study by the GABRIEL (Global Approach to Biological Research, Infectious diseases and Epidemics in Low-income countries) network was conducted between 2010 and 2014 in Cambodia, China, Haiti, India (2 sites), Madagascar, Mali, Mongolia, and Paraguay. Cases were hospitalized children with radiologically confirmed pneumonia; controls were children from the same setting without any features suggestive of pneumonia. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from all subjects; 19 viruses and 5 bacteria were identified by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Associations between microorganisms and pneumonia were quantified by calculating the adjusted population attributable fraction (aPAF) after multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusted for sex, age, time period, other pathogens, and site.

Results

Overall, 888 cases and 870 controls were analyzed; ≥1 microorganism was detected in respiratory samples in 93.0% of cases and 74.4% of controls (P < .001). Streptococcus pneumoniae, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza virus 1, 3, and 4, and influenza virus A and B were independently associated with pneumonia; aPAF was 42.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35.5%-48.2%) for S. pneumoniae, 18.2% (95% CI, 17.4%-19.0%) for RSV, and 11.2% (95% CI, 7.5%-14.7%) for rhinovirus.

Conclusions

Streptococcus pneumoniae, RSV, and rhinovirus may be the major microorganisms associated with pneumonia infections in children <5 years of age from developing and emerging countries. Increasing S. pneumoniae vaccination coverage may substantially reduce the burden of pneumonia among children in developing countries.