Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation

A low-cost field ventilator: An urgent global need

Modern ventilators are increasingly compact and able to deliver a wide range of ventilator modes and sophisticated monitoring capabilities. However, the global availability of ventilators is woefully short of demand. Data on intensive care units (ICUs), a proxy measure for hospital ventilator capacity in low and middle-income countries (LMIC's), suggest that capacity is extremely limited where it exists at all. In LMIC's, the four most common indications for mechanical ventilation (MV) in ICUs are post-surgical care, sepsis, trauma, and maternal peripartum or neonatal complications. A significant majority of these cases can be managed with intervention involving a short course of MV. Widespread and timely access to MV can thus effectively be used to help patients in these settings and improve outcomes. This paper implores this need and highlights the requirements for a low-cost ventilator or a respiratory support device.

Advancing sustainable development goals through immunization: a literature review

BACKGROUND

Immunization directly impacts health (SDG3) and brings a contribution to 14 out of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as ending poverty, reducing hunger, and reducing inequalities. Therefore, immunization is recognized to play a central role in reaching the SDGs, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite continuous interventions to strengthen immunization systems and to adequately respond to emergency immunization during epidemics, the immunization-related indicators for SDG3 lag behind in sub-Saharan Africa. Especially taking into account the current Covid19 pandemic, the current performance on the connected SDGs is both a cause and a result of this.

METHODS

We conduct a literature review through a keyword search strategy complemented with handpicking and snowballing from earlier reviews. After title and abstract screening, we conducted a qualitative analysis of key insights and categorized them according to showing the impact of immunization on SDGs, sustainability challenges, and model-based solutions to these challenges.

RESULTS

We reveal the leveraging mechanisms triggered by immunization and position them vis-à-vis the SDGs, within the framework of Public Health and Planetary Health. Several challenges for sustainable control of vaccine-preventable diseases are identified: access to immunization services, global vaccine availability to LMICs, context-dependent vaccine effectiveness, safe and affordable vaccines, local/regional vaccine production, public-private partnerships, and immunization capacity/capability building. Model-based approaches that support SDG-promoting interventions concerning immunization systems are analyzed in light of the strategic priorities of the Immunization Agenda 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

In general terms, it can be concluded that relevant future research requires (i) design for system resilience, (ii) transdisciplinary modeling, (iii) connecting interventions in immunization with SDG outcomes, (iv) designing interventions and their implementation simultaneously, (v) offering tailored solutions, and (vi) model coordination and integration of services and partnerships. The research and health community is called upon to join forces to activate existing knowledge, generate new insights and develop decision-supporting tools for Low-and Middle-Income Countries' health authorities and communities to leverage immunization in its transformational role toward successfully meeting the SDGs in 2030.

Investment case for malaria elimination in South Africa: a financing model for resource mobilization to accelerate regional malaria elimination

BACKGROUND

Malaria continues to be a public health problem in South Africa. While the disease is mainly confined to three of the nine provinces, most local transmissions occur because of importation of cases from neighbouring countries. The government of South Africa has reiterated its commitment to eliminate malaria within its borders. To support the achievement of this goal, this study presents a cost-benefit analysis of malaria elimination in South Africa through simulating different scenarios aimed at achieving malaria elimination within a 10-year period.

METHODS

A dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of malaria elimination in South Africa between 2018 and 2030. The model simulated a range of malaria interventions and estimated their impact on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria between 2018 and 2030 in the three endemic provinces of Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal. Local financial, economic, and epidemiological data were used to calibrate the transmission model.

RESULTS

Based on the three primary simulated scenarios: Business as Usual, Accelerate and Source Reduction, the total economic burden was estimated as follows: for the Business as Usual scenario, the total economic burden of malaria in South Africa was R 3.69 billion (USD 223.3 million) over an 11-year period (2018-2029). The economic burden of malaria was estimated at R4.88 billion (USD 295.5 million) and R6.34 billion (~ USD 384 million) for the Accelerate and Source Reduction scenarios, respectively. Costs and benefits are presented in midyear 2020 values. Malaria elimination was predicted to occur in all three provinces if the Source Reduction strategy was adopted to help reduce malaria rates in southern Mozambique. This could be achieved by limiting annual local incidence in South Africa to less than 1 indigenous case with a prediction of this goal being achieved by the year 2026.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria elimination in South Africa is feasible and economically worthwhile with a guaranteed positive return on investment (ROI). Findings of this study show that through securing funding for the proposed malaria interventions in the endemic areas of South Africa and neighbouring Mozambique, national elimination could be within reach in an 8-year period.

Burden of disease among the world's poorest billion people: An expert-informed secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease estimates

Background

The health of populations living in extreme poverty has been a long-standing focus of global development efforts, and continues to be a priority during the Sustainable Development Goal era. However, there has not been a systematic attempt to quantify the magnitude and causes of the burden in this specific population for almost two decades. We estimated disease rates by cause for the world’s poorest billion and compared these rates to those in high-income populations.

Methods

We defined the population in extreme poverty using a multidimensional poverty index. We used national-level disease burden estimates from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study and adjusted these to account for within-country variation in rates. To adjust for within-country variation, we looked to the relationship between rates of extreme poverty and disease rates across countries. In our main modeling approach, we used these relationships when there was consistency with expert opinion from a survey we conducted of disease experts regarding the associations between household poverty and the incidence and fatality of conditions. Otherwise, no within-country variation was assumed. We compared results across multiple approaches for estimating the burden in the poorest billion, including aggregating national-level burden from the countries with the highest poverty rates. We examined the composition of the estimated disease burden among the poorest billion and made comparisons with estimates for high-income countries.

Results

The composition of disease burden among the poorest billion, as measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), was 65% communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, 29% non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and 6% injuries. Age-standardized DALY rates from NCDs were 44% higher in the poorest billion (23,583 DALYs per 100,000) compared to high-income regions (16,344 DALYs per 100,000). Age-standardized DALY rates were 2,147% higher for CMNN conditions (32,334 DALYs per 100,000) and 86% higher for injuries (4,182 DALYs per 100,000) in the poorest billion, compared to high-income regions.

Conclusion

The disease burden among the poorest people globally compared to that in high income countries is highly influenced by demographics as well as large disparities in burden from many conditions. The comparisons show that the largest disparities remain in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases, though NCDs and injuries are an important part of the “unfinished agenda” of poor health among those living in extreme poverty.

Unmet health care needs and inequality: A cross-country comparison of the situation of people with spinal cord injury

Objective

To estimate and compare unmet health care needs of persons with spinal cord injury (SCI) across countries, the causes of these shortfalls, and the role of income.

Data Sources

We analyzed cross‐sectional data of 20 countries from the International Spinal Cord Injury (InSCI) survey, a compendium of comparable data on the living situation of persons with SCI. Data included information on high‐, middle‐, and low‐income countries. The survey comprises information on 12,095 participants.

Study Design

We used logit regressions to estimate the probability of unmet health care needs of persons with SCI and its causes. We adjusted the results by the individuals' characteristics and countries' fixed effects. We disaggregated the results by income decile of individuals in each country.

Data Collection/Extraction Methods

The inclusion criteria for the InSCI survey were adults aged 18 years and older with SCI living in the community, who were able to respond to the survey and who provided informed consent.

Principal Findings

Unmet health care needs are significant for people with long‐term conditions like SCI, where people in low‐income groups tend to be more affected. Among the barriers to meeting health care needs, the foremost is health care cost (in 11 of the 20 countries), followed by transportation and service availability. Persons with SCI in Morocco reported the highest probability of unmet health care needs in the sample, 0.54 (CI: 047–0.59), followed well behind by South Africa, 0.27 (CI: 0.20–0.33), and Brazil, 0.26 (CI: 0.20–0.33). In contrast, persons with SCI in Spain, 0.06 (CI: 0.04–0.08), reported the lowest probability of unmet health care needs, closely followed by Norway, 0.07 (CI: 0.05–0.09), Thailand, 0.08 (CI: 0.05–0.11), France, 0.08 (CI: 0.06–0.11), and Switzerland, 0.09 (CI: 0.07–0.10).

Conclusions

SCI is a long‐term, irreversible health condition characterized by physical impairment and a series of chronic illness. This makes SCI a high‐need, high‐cost group that faces significant unmet health care needs, which are mainly explained by the costs of health services, transportation, and services availability. This situation is prevalent in low‐, middle‐, and high‐income countries, where persons in lower income groups are disproportionately affected. To improve the situation, a combination of measures from the health and social systems are required.

The economic value of changing mortality risk in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic breakdown by cause of death

BACKGROUND

We develop a framework for quantifying monetary values associated with changes in disease-specific mortality risk in low- and middle-income countries to help quantify trade-offs involved in investing in mortality reduction due to one disease versus another.

METHODS

We monetized the changes in mortality risk for communicable and non-communicable diseases (CD and NCD, respectively) between 2017 and 2030 for low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries (LICs, LMICs, and UMICs, respectively). We modeled three mortality trajectories ("base-case", "high-performance", and "low-performance") using Global Burden of Disease study forecasts and estimated disease-specific mortality risk changes relative to the base-case. We assigned monetary values to changes in mortality risk using value of a statistical life (VSL) methods and conducted multiple sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

In terms of NCDs, the absolute monetary value associated with changing mortality risk was highest for cardiovascular diseases in older age groups. For example, being on the low-performance trajectory relative to the base-case in 2030 was valued at $9100 (95% uncertainty range $6800; $11,400), $28,300 ($24,200; $32,400), and $30,300 ($27,200; $33,300) for females aged 70-74 years in LICs, LMICs, and UMICs, respectively. Changing the mortality rate from the base-case to the high-performance trajectory was associated with high monetary value for CDs as well, especially among younger age groups. Estimates were sensitive to assumptions made in calculating VSL.

CONCLUSIONS

Our framework provides a priority setting paradigm to best allocate investments toward the health sector and enables intersectoral comparisons of returns on investments from health interventions.

Technological Progress and Health Convergence: The Case of Penicillin in Postwar Italy

Throughout history, technological progress has transformed population health, but the distributional effects of these gains are unclear. New substitutes for older, more expensive health technologies can produce convergence in population health outcomes but may also be prone to elite capture and thus divergence. We study the case of penicillin using detailed historical mortality statistics and exploiting its abruptly timed introduction in Italy after WWII. We find that penicillin reduced both the mean and standard deviation of infectious disease mortality, leading to substantial convergence across disparate regions of Italy. Our results do not appear to be driven by competing risks or confounded by mortality patterns associated with WWII.

Equity-informative methods of health services research

PURPOSE

We review quantitative methods for analysing the equity impacts of health care and public health interventions: who benefits most and who bears the largest burdens (opportunity costs)? Mainstream health services research focuses on effectiveness and efficiency but decision makers also need information about equity.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

We review equity-informative methods of quantitative data analysis in three core areas of health services research: effectiveness analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis and performance measurement. An appendix includes further readings and resources.

FINDINGS

Researchers seeking to analyse health equity impacts now have a practical and flexible set of methods at their disposal which builds on the standard health services research toolkit. Some of the more advanced methods require specialised skills, but basic equity-informative methods can be used by any health services researcher with appropriate skills in the three core areas.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE

We hope that this review will raise awareness of equity-informative methods of health services research and facilitate their entry into the mainstream so that health policymakers are routinely presented with information about who gains and who loses from their decisions.

Identifying Major Health-System Challenges in Developing Countries Using PERs: Equity is the Elephant in the Room

Despite an unprecedented increase in official development assistance to health in the last 25 years, there is no systematic way to assess dominant patterns in health-system challenges and opportunities in developing countries. Developing a new global instrument for and by donors and development partners would be resource-intensive and cumbersome. In this article, we demonstrate that Public Expenditure Reviews (PERs) can be used to reveal such patterns. PERs are analytical reports financed and conducted by the World Bank that have been used for years to identify and prioritize country-specific health sector reform needs. In order to extend their use beyond the country level, a reading instrument is developed in the form of a questionnaire to systematically identify the different themes addressed in each PER. All PERs published over a period of ten years are reviewed for health sector content. A new database is created with data on 70 PERs, spanning 61 countries. Analysis of the data reveals dominant themes globally, patterns across development levels, and some regional variations. Our main finding is that issues related to equity strongly dominate and are relevant across all regions and income groups. In addition, the article highlights the usefulness of PERs beyond providing country-specific information. Without losing the country-focus and flexibility of PERs, thoughtful and minor investments in how Health PERs are conducted can create a relatively cheap and strongly operational instrument for building global knowledge bases on health sector needs and challenges.

On time horizons in health economic evaluations

The issue of time horizons has received scant attention in discussions pertaining to health economic evaluations unlike discounting or translation of health outcomes into life-cycle measures (e.g. quality-adjusted life years or disability-adjusted life years). The available guidelines do not offer clear and consistent guidance for many problems addressed in health economic evaluations. In practice, variation of time horizons between studies for the same diseases is a matter of concern, as results on cost-effectiveness depend on the time horizon. Our paper contributes to establishing a consistent approach to setting time horizons across common types of health economic evaluations and mitigating potential bias where the choice of a time horizon may affect results of the evaluation. We find that available guidance is clear only for patient-focused interventions, but not in the presence of population-level effects owing to transmission of infections or other linkages. We distinguish between a policy period-over which an intervention is delivered or initiated-and an evaluation period over which the effects are measured. One important challenge in establishing a time horizon for evaluation is that, at least for infectious diseases, the state of the epidemic at the end of the policy period cannot be evaluated precisely and incorporated in the results of an economic evaluation. While longer policy periods partly mitigate this challenge, they are subject to greater uncertainty, and outcomes may not adequately reflect the cost-effectiveness of current policies because outcomes reflect an average over the policy period. Incremental analysis on interventions implemented in sub-periods of the policy period (especially at the beginning) potentially improves accuracy and helps to identify potential for improving cost-effectiveness by varying the path of implementation or the mix of interventions offered over time.

An investment case for the prevention and management of rheumatic heart disease in the African Union 2021-30: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Despite declines in deaths from rheumatic heart disease (RHD) in Africa over the past 30 years, it remains a major cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality on the continent. We present an investment case for interventions to prevent and manage RHD in the African Union (AU).

METHODS

We created a cohort state-transition model to estimate key outcomes in the disease process, including cases of pharyngitis from group A streptococcus, episodes of acute rheumatic fever (ARF), cases of RHD, heart failure, and deaths. With this model, we estimated the impact of scaling up interventions using estimates of effect sizes from published studies. We estimated the cost to scale up coverage of interventions and summarised the benefits by monetising health gains estimated in the model using a full income approach. Costs and benefits were compared using the benefit-cost ratio and the net benefits with discounted costs and benefits.

FINDINGS

Operationally achievable levels of scale-up of interventions along the disease spectrum, including primary prevention, secondary prevention, platforms for management of heart failure, and heart valve surgery could avert 74 000 (UI 50 000-104 000) deaths from RHD and ARF from 2021 to 2030 in the AU, reaching a 30·7% (21·6-39·0) reduction in the age-standardised death rate from RHD in 2030, compared with no increase in coverage of interventions. The estimated benefit-cost ratio for plausible scale-up of secondary prevention and secondary and tertiary care interventions was 4·7 (2·9-6·3) with a net benefit of $2·8 billion (1·6-3·9; 2019 US$) through 2030. The estimated benefit-cost ratio for primary prevention scale-up was low to 2030 (0·2, <0·1-0·4), increasing with delayed benefits accrued to 2090. The benefit-cost dynamics of primary prevention were sensitive to the costs of different delivery approaches, uncertain epidemiological parameters regarding group A streptococcal pharyngitis and ARF, assumptions about long-term demographic and economic trends, and discounting.

INTERPRETATION

Increased coverage of interventions to control and manage RHD could accelerate progress towards eradication in AU member states. Gaps in local epidemiological data and particular components of the disease process create uncertainty around the level of benefits. In the short term, costs of secondary prevention and secondary and tertiary care for RHD are lower than for primary prevention, and benefits accrue earlier.

FUNDING

World Heart Federation, Leona M and Harry B Helmsley Charitable Trust, and American Heart Association.

Improving Global Surgical Oncology Benchmarks: Defining the Unmet Need for Cancer Surgery in Ghana

BACKGROUND

The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery (LCoGS) recommended an annual surgical rate at which low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) could achieve most of the population-wide benefits of surgery. However, condition-specific guidelines were not proposed. To inform rates of surgery for cancer, we sought to assess the current met and unmet need for oncologic surgery in Ghana.

METHODS

Data on all operations performed in Ghana over a one-year period (2014-15) were obtained from representative samples of 48/124 first-level and 12/16 referral hospitals and scaled-up for nationwide estimates. Procedures for cancer were identified by indication. Using modified LCoGS methodology with disease prevalence, Ghana's annual rate of cancer surgery was compared to that of New Zealand to quantify current unmet needs.

RESULTS

232,776 surgical procedures were performed in Ghana; 2,562 procedures (95%UI 1878-3255) were for cancer. Of these, 964 (37%) were surgical biopsies. The annual rate of procedures treating cancer was 2115 surgeries/100,000 cancer cases, or 21% of the New Zealand benchmark. Cervical, breast, and prostate cancer were found to meet 2.1%, 17.2%, and 32.1% of their respective surgical need.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a large unmet need for cancer surgery in Ghana. Cancer surgery constitutes under 2% of the total surgeries performed in Ghana, an important proportion of which are used for biopsies. Therapeutic operative rate is deficient across most cancer types, and may lag behind improvements in screening efforts. As cancer prevalence and diagnosis increase in LMICs, cancer-specific surgical capacity must be increased to meet these evolving needs.

Depression, suicidality and associated risk factors among police officers in urban Tanzania: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The WHO has classified depression as a disease of public concern. Police officers are a particular subpopulation group that is at an increased risk for mental health problems. This study examined the prevalence of depression, suicidality and associated risk factors among police officers in urban Tanzania.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of depression, suicidality and associated risk factors among police officers in Tanzania.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted between April 2019 and October 2020 among 550 participants in Dar es Salaam recruited using a multistage cluster sampling technique. The Patient Health Questionnaire-9 was used to screen for depression and suicidality. The Interpersonal Support Evaluation List-12 tool was used to measure perceived social support. Descriptive statistics were summarised using frequencies and percentages. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to establish associations between predictors of interest, depression and suicidality.

RESULTS

There were 497 participants in the study. Of these, 76.6% (376 of 491) were men, and the median (IQR) age was 37.0 (17) years. Around 19.8% (96 of 486) of the police officers screened positive for depression and 15.4% (75 of 413) for suicidality. A significant proportion was either moderately (29 of 96, 30.2%) or severely depressed (8 of 75, 10.7 %). Of those who experienced suicidal thoughts, 10.7% (8 of 75) reported having daily suicidal thoughts. Perceiving low social support was associated with an increased risk of reporting depression (adjusted OR (aOR): 28.04, 95% CI: 8.42 to 93.37, p<0.001) and suicidality (aOR: 10.85, 95% CI: 3.56 to 33.08, p<0.001) as compared with those with high perceived social support.

CONCLUSION

The magnitude of depression and suicidality among police officers in urban Tanzania is alarmingly high. The study findings indicate the need for routine screening for depression and suicidality among police officers and design appropriate mental health responsive services in this population.

Achieving global mortality reduction targets and universal health coverage: The impact of COVID-19

Wenhui Mao and coauthors discuss possible implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for health aspirations in low- and middle-income countries.

Health systems strengthening to arrest the global disability burden: empirical development of prioritised components for a global strategy for improving musculoskeletal health

INTRODUCTION

Despite the profound burden of disease, a strategic global response to optimise musculoskeletal (MSK) health and guide national-level health systems strengthening priorities remains absent. Auspiced by the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health (G-MUSC), we aimed to empirically derive requisite priorities and components of a strategic response to guide global and national-level action on MSK health.

METHODS

Design: mixed-methods, three-phase design.Phase 1: qualitative study with international key informants (KIs), including patient representatives and people with lived experience. KIs characterised the contemporary landscape for MSK health and priorities for a global strategic response.Phase 2: scoping review of national health policies to identify contemporary MSK policy trends and foci.Phase 3: informed by phases 1-2, was a global eDelphi where multisectoral panellists rated and iterated a framework of priorities and detailed components/actions.

RESULTS

Phase 1: 31 KIs representing 25 organisations were sampled from 20 countries (40% low and middle income (LMIC)). Inductively derived themes were used to construct a logic model to underpin latter phases, consisting of five guiding principles, eight strategic priority areas and seven accelerators for action.Phase 2: of the 165 documents identified, 41 (24.8%) from 22 countries (88% high-income countries) and 2 regions met the inclusion criteria. Eight overarching policy themes, supported by 47 subthemes, were derived, aligning closely with the logic model.Phase 3: 674 panellists from 72 countries (46% LMICs) participated in round 1 and 439 (65%) in round 2 of the eDelphi. Fifty-nine components were retained with 10 (17%) identified as essential for health systems. 97.6% and 94.8% agreed or strongly agreed the framework was valuable and credible, respectively, for health systems strengthening.

CONCLUSION

An empirically derived framework, co-designed and strongly supported by multisectoral stakeholders, can now be used as a blueprint for global and country-level responses to improve MSK health and prioritise system strengthening initiatives.

The need for adaptable global guidance in health systems strengthening for musculoskeletal health: a qualitative study of international key informants

BACKGROUND

Musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions, MSK pain and MSK injury/trauma are the largest contributors to the global burden of disability, yet global guidance to arrest the rising disability burden is lacking. We aimed to explore contemporary context, challenges and opportunities at a global level and relevant to health systems strengthening for MSK health, as identified by international key informants (KIs) to inform a global MSK health strategic response.

METHODS

An in-depth qualitative study was undertaken with international KIs, purposively sampled across high-income and low and middle-income countries (LMICs). KIs identified as representatives of peak global and international organisations (clinical/professional, advocacy, national government and the World Health Organization), thought leaders, and people with lived experience in advocacy roles. Verbatim transcripts of individual semi-structured interviews were analysed inductively using a grounded theory method. Data were organised into categories describing 1) contemporary context; 2) goals; 3) guiding principles; 4) accelerators for action; and 5) strategic priority areas (pillars), to build a data-driven logic model. Here, we report on categories 1-4 of the logic model.

RESULTS

Thirty-one KIs from 20 countries (40% LMICs) affiliated with 25 organisations participated. Six themes described contemporary context (category 1): 1) MSK health is afforded relatively lower priority status compared with other health conditions and is poorly legitimised; 2) improving MSK health is more than just healthcare; 3) global guidance for country-level system strengthening is needed; 4) impact of COVID-19 on MSK health; 5) multiple inequities associated with MSK health; and 6) complexity in health service delivery for MSK health. Five guiding principles (category 3) focussed on adaptability; inclusiveness through co-design; prevention and reducing disability; a lifecourse approach; and equity and value-based care. Goals (category 2) and seven accelerators for action (category 4) were also derived.

CONCLUSION

KIs strongly supported the creation of an adaptable global strategy to catalyse and steward country-level health systems strengthening responses for MSK health. The data-driven logic model provides a blueprint for global agencies and countries to initiate appropriate whole-of-health system reforms to improve population-level prevention and management of MSK health. Contextual considerations about MSK health and accelerators for action should be considered in reform activities.

Transition in air pollution, disease burden and health cost in China: A comparative study of long-term and short-term exposure

Ambient air pollution is one of the leading environmental risk factors to human health, largely offsetting economic growth. This study evaluated health burden and cost associated with the short-term and long-term exposure of major air pollutants (fine particulate matter [PM_2.5] and ozone [O₃]) during 2013-2018. We developed a database of gridded daily and annual PM_2.5 and O₃ exposure in China at 15 km × 15 km resolution. Then, we estimated the age- and cause-specific premature deaths and quantified related health damage with an age-adjusted value of statistical life (VSL) measure. The health cost estimated in this study captured direct cost, indirect cost and intangible cost of the premature death attributable to ambient PM_2.5 and O₃. We found that the national premature deaths attributable to long-term and short-term exposure to PM_2.5 decreased by 15% and 59%, whereas the national premature deaths attributable to long-term and short-term exposure to O₃ increased by 36% and 94%. Despite a 15% reduction of attributable deaths, the health cost attributable to long-term exposure to PM_2.5 did not change significantly as a result of GDP growth and population aging. On the other hand, the long-term O₃ related health cost in 2018 doubled that in 2013. Our study suggests that while premature deaths fell as a result of China's clean air actions, the health costs of air pollution remained high. The growing trends of O₃ highlighted the needs for strategies to reduce both PM_2.5 and O₃ emissions, for the sake of public health and social well-being in China.

Health transition of the causes of mortality between 2005 and 2015 in Guangdong, China

OBJECTIVES

To analyse the patterns of transition of health burden for 110 causes of death by stratification of age, sex and geographic regions in Guangdong between 2005 and 2015.

METHODS

We analysed the age-specific, sex-specific, region-specific mortality in Guangdong based on assembled databases. County-level surveillance data were calculated to inform city-level changes.

RESULTS

The age-standardised mortality of all causes, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), communicable diseases, maternal diseases, neonatal diseases, malnutrition and injury declined progressively. Despite declining mortality of NCDs, the overall burden of disease was dominated by NCDs (ie, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) that still accounted for 86.93% and 88.12% of death in 2005 and 2015, respectively. Considerable variations across geographic regions were observed (lowest in Pearl River Delta and highest in west Guangdong). There was a modest shift to transport injuries at younger ages and unintentional injuries in the elderly.

CONCLUSIONS

We have documented a dramatic change in the overall mortality and age-specific, sex-specific and cause-specific mortality in Guangdong province between 2005 and 2015. The significant burden of NCDs remains a major healthcare issue despite the notable progress in reducing mortality in Guangdong, China. Our findings highlight important unmet needs to refine healthcare services by taking into account the inequity of age, sex and geographic regions. Identification of the 'treatable' risk factors and improved disease surveillance should be continuously improved to minimised the overall and cause-specific mortality.

Investment Case for a Comprehensive Package of Interventions Against Hepatitis B in China: Applied Modeling to Help National Strategy Planning

Background

In 2016, the first global viral hepatitis elimination targets were endorsed. An estimated one-third of the world’s population of individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection live in China and liver cancer is the sixth leading cause of mortality, but coverage of first-line antiviral treatment was low. In 2015, China was one of the first countries to initiate a consultative process for a renewed approach to viral hepatitis. We present the investment case for the scale-up of a comprehensive package of HBV interventions.

Methods

A dynamic simulation model of HBV was developed and used to simulate the Chinese HBV epidemic. We evaluated the impact, costs, and return on investment of a comprehensive package of prevention and treatment interventions from a societal perspective, incorporating costs of management of end-stage liver disease and lost productivity costs.

Results

Despite the successes of historical vaccination scale-up since 1992, there will be a projected 60 million people still living with HBV in 2030 and 10 million HBV-related deaths, including 5.7 million HBV-related cancer deaths between 2015 and 2030. This could be reduced by 2.1 million by highly active case-finding and optimal antiviral treatment regimens. The package of interventions is likely to have a positive return on investment to society of US$1.57 per US dollar invested.

Conclusions

Increases in HBV-related deaths for the next few decades pose a major public health threat in China. Active case-finding and access to optimal antiviral treatment are required to mitigate this risk. This investment case approach provides a real-world example of how applied modeling can support national dialog and inform policy planning.

Why is repositioning public health innovation towards a social paradigm necessary? A reflection on the field of public health through the examples of Ebola and Covid-19

Health innovations are generally oriented on a techno-economic vision. In this perspective, technologies are seen as an end in themselves, and there is no arrangement between the technical and the social values of innovation. This vision prevails in sanitary crises, in which management is carried out based on the search for punctual, reactive, and technical solutions to remedy a specific problem without a systemic/holistic, sustainable, or proactive approach. This paper attempts to contribute to the literature on the epistemological orientation of innovations in the field of public health. Taking the Covid-19 and Ebola crises as examples, the primary objective is to show how innovation in health is oriented towards a techno-economic paradigm. Second, we propose a repositioning of public health innovation towards a social paradigm that will put more emphasis on the interaction between social and health dimensions in the perspective of social change. We will conclude by highlighting the roles that public health could play in allowing innovations to have more social value, especially during sanitary crises.

New Developments and Insights in the Improvement of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Vaccines and Diagnostics Within the End TB Strategy

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The alignment of sustainable development goals (SDGs) with the End Tuberculosis (TB) strategy provides an integrated roadmap to implement key approaches towards TB elimination. This review summarizes current social challenges for TB control, and yet, recent developments in TB diagnosis and vaccines in the context of the End TB strategy and SDGs to transform global health.

RECENT FINDINGS

Advances in non-sputum based TB biomarkers and whole genome sequencing technologies could revolutionize TB diagnostics. Moreover, synergistic novel technologies such as mRNA vaccination, nanovaccines and promising TB vaccine models are key promising developments for TB prevention and control.

SUMMARY

The End TB strategy depends on novel developments in point-of-care TB diagnostics and effective vaccines. However, despite outstanding technological developments in these fields, TB elimination will be unlikely achieved if TB social determinants are not fully addressed. Indeed, the End TB strategy and SDGs emphasize the importance of implementing sustainable universal health coverage and social protection.

Medical imaging and nuclear medicine: a Lancet Oncology Commission

The diagnosis and treatment of patients with cancer requires access to imaging to ensure accurate management decisions and optimal outcomes. Our global assessment of imaging and nuclear medicine resources identified substantial shortages in equipment and workforce, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). A microsimulation model of 11 cancers showed that the scale-up of imaging would avert 3·2% (2·46 million) of all 76·0 million deaths caused by the modelled cancers worldwide between 2020 and 2030, saving 54·92 million life-years. A comprehensive scale-up of imaging, treatment, and care quality would avert 9·55 million (12·5%) of all cancer deaths caused by the modelled cancers worldwide, saving 232·30 million life-years. Scale-up of imaging would cost US$6·84 billion in 2020-30 but yield lifetime productivity gains of $1·23 trillion worldwide, a net return of $179·19 per $1 invested. Combining the scale-up of imaging, treatment, and quality of care would provide a net benefit of $2·66 trillion and a net return of $12·43 per $1 invested. With the use of a conservative approach regarding human capital, the scale-up of imaging alone would provide a net benefit of $209·46 billion and net return of $31·61 per $1 invested. With comprehensive scale-up, the worldwide net benefit using the human capital approach is $340·42 billion and the return per dollar invested is $2·46. These improved health and economic outcomes hold true across all geographical regions. We propose actions and investments that would enhance access to imaging equipment, workforce capacity, digital technology, radiopharmaceuticals, and research and training programmes in LMICs, to produce massive health and economic benefits and reduce the burden of cancer globally.

A Nationwide Enumeration of Operations Performed for Pediatric Patients in Ghana

INTRODUCTION

 Currently, there are no existing benchmarks for evaluating a nation's pediatric surgical capacity in terms of met and unmet needs.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

 Data on pediatric operations performed from 2014 to 2015 were obtained from a representative sample of hospitals in Ghana, then scaled up for national estimates. Operations were categorized as "essential" (most cost-effective, highest population impact) as designated by the World Bank's Disease Control Priorities versus "other." Estimates were then compared with pediatric operation rates in New Zealand to determine unmet pediatric surgery need in Ghana.

RESULTS

 A total of 29,884 operations were performed for children <15 years, representing an annual operation rate of 284/100,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 205-364). Essential procedures constituted 66% of all pediatric operations; 12,397 (63%) were performed at district hospitals. General surgery (8,808; 29%) and trauma (6,302; 21%) operations were most common. Operations for congenital conditions were few (826; 2.8%). Tertiary hospitals performed majority (55%) of operations outside of the essential category. Compared with the New Zealand benchmark (3,806 operations/100,000 children <15 years), Ghana is meeting only 7% of its pediatric surgical needs.

CONCLUSION

 Ghana has a large unmet need for pediatric surgical care. Pediatric-specific benchmarking is needed to guide surgical capacity efforts in low- and middle-income country healthcare systems.

Global costs, health benefits, and economic benefits of scaling up treatment and imaging modalities for survival of 11 cancers: a simulation-based analysis

BACKGROUND

In addition to increased availability of treatment modalities, advanced imaging modalities are increasingly recommended to improve global cancer care. However, estimates of the costs and benefits of investments to improve cancer survival are scarce, especially for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this analysis, we aimed to estimate the costs and lifetime health and economic benefits of scaling up imaging and treatment modality packages on cancer survival, both globally and by country income group.

METHODS

Using a previously developed model of global cancer survival, we estimated stage-specific cancer survival and life-years gained (accounting for competing mortality) in 200 countries and territories for patients diagnosed with one of 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate) representing 60% of all cancer diagnoses between 2020 and 2030 (inclusive of full years). We evaluated the costs and health and economic benefits of scaling up packages of treatment (chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, and targeted therapy), imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, single-photon emission CT), and quality of care to the mean level of high-income countries, separately and in combination, compared with no scale-up. Costs and benefits are presented in 2018 US$ and discounted at 3% annually.

FINDINGS

For the 11 cancers studied, we estimated that without scale-up (ie, with current availability of treatment, imaging, and quality of care) there will be 76·0 million cancer deaths (95% UI 73·9-78·6) globally for patients diagnosed between 2020 and 2030, with more than 70% of these deaths occurring in LMICs. Comprehensive scale-up of treatment, imaging, and quality of care could avert 12·5% (95% UI 9·0-16·3) of these deaths globally, ranging from 2·8% (1·8-4·3) in high-income countries to 38·2% (32·6-44·5) in low-income countries. Globally, we estimate that comprehensive scale-up would cost an additional $232·9 billion (95% UI 85·9-422·0) between 2020 and 2030 (representing a 6·9% increase in cancer treatment costs), but produce $2·9 trillion (1·8-4·0) in lifetime economic benefits, yielding a return of $12·43 (6·47-33·23) per dollar invested. Scaling up treatment and quality of care without imaging would yield a return of $6·15 (2·66-16·71) per dollar invested and avert 7·0% (3·9-10·3) of cancer deaths worldwide.

INTERPRETATION

Simultaneous investment in cancer treatment, imaging, and quality of care could yield substantial health and economic benefits, especially in LMICs. These results provide a compelling rationale for the value of investing in the global scale-up of cancer care.

FUNDING

Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health and National Cancer Institute.

Health inequality in the tropics and its costs: a Sustainable Development Goals alert

Background

It is known that health impacts economic performance. This article aims to assess the current state of health inequality in the tropics, defined as the countries located between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn, and estimate the impact of this inequality on gross domestic product (GDP).

Methods

We constructed a series of concentration indices showing between-country inequalities in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), taken from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We then utilized a non-linear least squares model to estimate the influence of health on GDP and counterfactual analysis to assess the GDP for each country had there been no between-country inequality.

Results

The poorest 25% of the tropical population had 68% of the all-cause DALYs burden in 2015; 82% of the communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional DALYs burden; 55% of the non-communicable disease DALYs burden and 61% of the injury DALYs burden. An increase in the all-cause DALYs rate of 1/1000 resulted in a 0.05% decrease in GDP. If there were no inequality between countries in all-cause DALY rates, most high-income countries would see a modest increase in GDP, with low- and middle-income countries estimated to see larger increases.

Conclusions

There are large and growing inequalities in health in the tropics and this has significant economic cost for lower-income countries.

The effect of spokesperson attribution on public health message sharing during the COVID-19 pandemic

It is urgent to understand how to effectively communicate public health messages during the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous work has focused on how to formulate messages in terms of style and content, rather than on who should send them. In particular, little is known about the impact of spokesperson selection on message propagation during times of crisis. We report on the effectiveness of different public figures at promoting social distancing among 12,194 respondents from six countries that were severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic at the time of data collection. Across countries and demographic strata, immunology expert Dr. Anthony Fauci achieved the highest level of respondents' willingness to reshare a call to social distancing, followed by a government spokesperson. Celebrity spokespersons were least effective. The likelihood of message resharing increased with age and when respondents expressed positive sentiments towards the spokesperson. These results contribute to the development of evidence-based knowledge regarding the effectiveness of prominent official and non-official public figures in communicating public health messaging in times of crisis. Our findings serve as a reminder that scientific experts and governments should not underestimate their power to inform and persuade in times of crisis and underscore the crucial importance of selecting the most effective messenger in propagating messages of lifesaving information during a pandemic.

Sláintecare implementation status in 2020: Limited progress with entitlement expansion

The Sláintecare report developed by political consensus sets out a ten year plan for achieving Universal Health Care (UHC) in Ireland. This paper evaluates the design and progress of the report to mid 2020, but with some reflection on the new COVID 19 era, particularly as it relates to the expansion of entitlements to achieve UHC. The authors explore how close Sláintecare is to the UHC ideal. They also review the phased strategy of implementation in Sláintecare that utilises a systems-thinking approach with interlinkages between entitlements, funding, capacity and implementation. Finally the authors review the Sláintecare milestones against the reality of implementation since the publication of the report in 2017, cognisant of government policy and practice. Some of the initial assumptions around the context of Sláintecare were not realised and there has been limited progress made toward expanding entitlements, and certainly short of the original plan. Nevertheless there have been positive developments in that there is evidence that Government's Implementation Strategy and Action Plans are focussing on reforming a complex adaptive system rather than implementing a blueprint with such initiatives as integrated care pilots and citizen engagement. The authors find that this may help the system change but it risks losing some of the essential elements of entitlement expansion in favour of organisational change.

A scoping review of methods for assessment of sex differentials in early childhood mortality

BACKGROUND

While assessment of sex differentials in child mortality is straightforward, their interpretation must consider that, in the absence of gender bias, boys are more likely to die than girls. The expected differences are also influenced by levels and causes of death. However, there is no standard approach for determining expected sex differences.

METHODS

We performed a scoping review of studies on sex differentials in under-five mortality, using PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases. Publication characteristics were described, and studies were grouped according to their methodology.

RESULTS

From the 17,693 references initially retrieved we included 154 studies published since 1929. Indian, Bangladeshi, and Chinese populations were the focus of 44% of the works, and most studies addressed infant mortality. Fourteen publications were classified as reference studies, as these aimed to estimate expected sex differentials based upon the demographic experience of selected populations, either considered as gender-neutral or not. These studies used a variety of methods - from simple averages to sophisticated modeling - to define values against which observed estimates could be compared. The 21 comparative studies mostly used life tables from European populations as standard for expected values, but also relied on groups without assuming those values as expected, otherwise, just as comparison parameters. The remaining 119 studies were categorized as narrative and did not use reference values, being limited to reporting observed sex-specific estimates or used a variety of statistical models, and in general, did not account for mortality levels.

CONCLUSION

Studies aimed at identifying sex differentials in child mortality should consider overall mortality levels, and report on more than one age group. The comparison of results with one or more reference values, and the use of statistical testing, are strongly recommended. Time trends analyses will help understand changes in population characteristics and interpret findings from a historical perspective.

Severe hypoglycaemia under abemaciclib administration in a patient with breast cancer: A case report

The current study reports the case of an 80-year-old woman who experienced severe hypoglycaemia after abemaciclib administration, with a recovery time of ~46 h. Abemaciclib is a cyclin-dependent kinase 4 and 6 (CDK4/6) inhibitor that is used to treat metastatic breast cancer. A side effect of abemaciclib administration is an increase in creatinine levels. The half-life (t_1/2) of 150 mg abemaciclib in patients with breast cancer was reported to be 17.5 h (nearly lower limit), and the time to reach C_max was ~5 h (T_max, 4-6 h). Therefore, the total time to reach half the maximum blood concentration after abemaciclib administration is ~24 h (T_max + t_1/2=5+17.5=22.5 h). As abemaciclib is administered twice daily, a considerable amount (C_max = 123 ng/ml) may persist in the blood following the initial dose. Upon repeated administration, the blood abemaciclib concentration in patients with metastatic liver tumours might increase, although their liver function remains normal. The patient described in the current study had a creatinine level of 1.05 mg/dl at the start of abemaciclib administration. At the time of emergency hospitalisation (on day 5 of abemaciclib administration), the creatinine level was 1.40 mg/dl; however, dehydration was not observed. The patient had been administered the same dose of glimepiride for >1 year and had not experienced hypoglycaemia previously. It can be speculated that the increase in blood creatinine level had some effect on glimepiride metabolism. It is thought that administered abemaciclib enhances metabolic delay in the blood in the same way as in patients with impaired liver function, and as a result, the creatinine level increases in patients with liver metastases. This causes a decrease in renal function, which in turn results in an increase in blood concentration of glimepiride, consequently leading to severe hypoglycaemia. Therefore, clinicians must be careful when using abemaciclib in patients with liver metastases, diabetes and poor renal function.

Factors that influence the scale up of new interventions in low-income settings: a qualitative case study of the introduction of chlorhexidine cleansing of the umbilical cord in Bangladesh

There is a well-recognized need for empirical study of processes and factors that influence scale up of evidence-based interventions in low-income countries to address the 'know-do' gap. We undertook a qualitative case study of the scale up of chlorhexidine cleansing of the umbilical cord (CHX) in Bangladesh to identify and compare facilitators and barriers for the institutionalization and expansion stages of scale up. Data collection and analysis for this case study were informed by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) and the WHO/ExpandNet model of scale up. At the national level, we interviewed 20 stakeholders involved in CHX policy or implementation. At the district level, we conducted interviews with 31 facility-based healthcare providers in five districts and focus group discussions (FGDs) with eight community-based providers and eight programme managers. At the community level, we conducted 7 FGDs with 53 mothers who had a baby within the past year. Expanded interview notes were thematically coded and analysed following an adapted Framework approach. National stakeholders identified external policy and incentives, and the engagement of stakeholders in policy development through the National Technical Working Committee for Newborn Health, as key facilitators for policy and health systems changes. Stakeholders, providers and families perceived the intervention to be simple, safe and effective, and more consistent with family preferences than the prior policy of dry cord care. The major barriers that delayed or decreased the public health impact of the scale up of CHX in Bangladesh's public health system related to commodity production, procurement and distribution. Bangladesh's experience scaling up CHX suggests that scale up should involve early needs assessments and planning for institutionalizing new drugs and commodities into the supply chain. While the five CFIR domains were useful for categorizing barriers and facilitators, additional constructs are needed for common health systems barriers in low-income settings.

Work-Related Stress and Associated Factors Among Textile Factory Employees in Northwest Ethiopia: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Work-related stress is becoming an alarmingly growing public health concern worldwide. Textile factories are among the most common manufacturing industries that have a higher rate of work-related stress. Investigating the prevalence and factors associated with work-related stress will help planners and decision-makers at every level in planning, managing, and evaluating the health status of the employees. Research evidence is limited for work-related stress in Northwest Ethiopia. Therefore, this study was aimed to assess work-related stress and associated factors among textile factory employees in Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

A cross-sectional study design was employed among 403 employees in Bahir Dar Textile Factory. Data were collected using an interviewer administered questionnaire, then entered into EpiData version 3.1, and analyzed using SPSS version 22 software. Descriptive statistics, bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions were carried out. In logistic regression analysis, adjusted odds ratio (AOR), along with 95% confidence interval (CI), was used to identify the associated factors of work-related stress. A P-value<0.05 was considered as statistically significant.

Results

The prevalence of work-related stress was 45.2%, with 95% CI=40.0–50.1%. Working in rotational shifts (AOR=2.33, 95% CI=1.34–4.03), current substance use (AOR=5.67, 95% CI=3.38–9.52), poor and medium social support (AOR=3.75, 95% CI=1.71–8.21 and AOR=3.26, 95% CI=1.39–7.64) were significantly associated factors with work-related stress, respectively.

Conclusion and Recommendation

Near to half of the study participants had work-related stress. Work shift, substance use, and social support were among the factors which affect work-related stress. Thus, interventions that could reduce work-related stress such as stress management programs should be considered.

An Assessment of Domestic Financing for Reproductive, Maternal, Neonatal and Child Health in Sub-Saharan Africa: Potential Gains and Fiscal Space

BACKGROUND

Reproductive, maternal, neonatal and child health (RMNCH) remains an important public health objective. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), inadequate financial commitment continues to pose a major challenge to improving RMNCH outcomes. Understanding financing gains and potential fiscal space for RMNCH can therefore not be overemphasized.

OBJECTIVE

This study sought to analyse the potential gains from increased domestic financing as a source for improving RMNCH outcomes in SSA. We also assessed, in addition to the potential gains, the potential fiscal space available for financing RMNCH in SSA.

METHODS

Our study used panel econometric techniques to estimate gains from increased health financing in terms of RMNCH. We also reviewed tax system performance as well as debt sustainability to identify fiscal space potentials across countries.

RESULTS

We found significant gains from both domestic and external financing. The estimated elasticities suggest that the gains from domestic public financing were much stronger. The fiscal space options identified include tax revenue performance improvements, improved public financial management, and borrowing, at least in the short to medium term. The results show that fiscal space from improved tax systems ranged from US$34.6 per capita in Uganda to US$310.6 per capita in Nigeria.

CONCLUSION

This result reinforces calls for increased domestic financing for health through innovations in domestic resource mobilization. Improving the performance of tax systems will be a step in the right direction, with possible long-term gains to the health sector.

Publicly provided healthcare and migration

Publicly provided healthcare has received growing attention. Debates have been fuelled by evidence on improved health and reduced poverty, and concerns over adverse labour market effects; concerns that are, to date, only supported by mixed empirical findings. This article examines whether publicly provided healthcare influences the decision to migrate. The spatial and temporal variation in the expansion of a non-contributory health insurance programme in Mexico, combined with the panel dimension and the timing of household survey data allows causal identification of the effect of increased coverage on migration. Difference-in-differences estimates reveal that accessing healthcare for free raises internal migration. The effect on international migration, costlier by nature, is statistically insignificant. Potential mechanisms include better health, the alleviation of financial constraints and a greater propensity to work. Results point to the relevance of including household members who have migrated in assessing the impacts of social health policies. They suggest that publicly provided healthcare could have multiplier effects on economic development and welfare by enabling labour force detachment of working-age members in affiliated households.

Evaluation of a multidisciplinary global health online course in Mexico

Background

Global Health Education (GHE) focuses on training proactive global citizens to tackle health challenges in an increasingly interconnected and interdependent world. Studies show that health professionals in training have reported that GHE has improved their teamwork, responsiveness to contextual factors that impact health, and understanding of health systems; however, there is little research on the impact of GHE courses in undergraduate settings, especially in low and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Methods

Our study analyzes a multidisciplinary online global health course at Tecnologico de Monterrey, México. We conducted a cross-sectional study with pre- and post-design. Students who took the multidisciplinary course of Global Health for Leaders in the Fall of 2019 (n = 153) and Spring of 2020 (n = 348) were selected for this study. Using a five-point Likert scale (strongly agree to strongly disagree), the survey assessed seven competencies as well as questions about course expectations, takeaways, and recommendations to improve the course. We performed descriptive statistical analyses comparing the combined pre-tests (from Fall and Spring cohorts) to the combined post-tests. Fisher’s exact test was used to compare the samples.

Results

Of the 501 pre-course surveys administered, 456 responses were completed in the pre-course and 435 in the post-course (91% overall response rate). Only 8.7% of the respondents in the pre-course survey strongly agreed that they could describe fundamental aspects of global health such as the Millennium Development Goals or Sustainable Development Goals, in contrast to a 56% of the students who strongly agreed in the post-course survey (p < 0.001). Similar differences were captured in understanding the global burden of disease, social determinants of health, the effects of globalization in health, health systems’ goals and functions, and human rights. 38% felt that the course helped them develop a more empathetic perception of the suffering of others experiencing global health-related issues.

Conclusion

In this study, we have presented our experience in teaching an online global health course for multidisciplinary undergraduates in a LMIC. The competencies reported by our students indicate that the course prepared them to confront complex global health issues.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41256-020-00179-8.

Tracking infectious diseases in a warming world

Using infectious diseases sensitive to climate as indicators of climate change helps stimulate and inform public health responses, write Kris A Murray and colleagues

The Integrated Tracking, Referral, and Electronic Decision Support, and Care Coordination (I-TREC) program: scalable strategies for the management of hypertension and diabetes within the government healthcare system of India

Background

Hypertension and diabetes are among the most common and deadly chronic conditions globally. In India, most adults with these conditions remain undiagnosed, untreated, or poorly treated and uncontrolled. Innovative and scalable approaches to deliver proven-effective strategies for medical and lifestyle management of these conditions are needed.

Methods

The overall goal of this implementation science study is to evaluate the Integrated Tracking, Referral, Electronic decision support, and Care coordination (I-TREC) program. I-TREC leverages information technology (IT) to manage hypertension and diabetes in adults aged ≥30 years across the hierarchy of Indian public healthcare facilities. The I-TREC program combines multiple evidence-based interventions: an electronic case record form (eCRF) to consolidate and track patient information and referrals across the publicly-funded healthcare system; an electronic clinical decision support system (CDSS) to assist clinicians to provide tailored guideline-based care to patients; a revised workflow to ensure coordinated care within and across facilities; and enhanced training for physicians and nurses regarding non-communicable disease (NCD) medical content and lifestyle management. The program will be implemented and evaluated in a predominantly rural district of Punjab, India. The evaluation will employ a quasi-experimental design with mixed methods data collection. Evaluation indicators assess changes in the continuum of care for hypertension and diabetes and are grounded in the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption Implementation, and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework. Data will be triangulated from multiple sources, including community surveys, health facility assessments, stakeholder interviews, and patient-level data from the I-TREC program’s electronic database.

Discussion

I-TREC consolidates previously proven strategies for improved management of hypertension and diabetes at single-levels of the healthcare system into a scalable model for coordinated care delivery across all levels of the healthcare system hierarchy. Findings have the potential to inform best practices to ultimately deliver quality public-sector hypertension and diabetes care across India.

Trial registration

The study is registered with Clinical Trials Registry of India (registration number CTRI/2020/01/022723). The study was registered prior to the launch of the intervention on 13 January 2020. The current version of protocol is version 2 dated 6 June 2018.

Beneath the Surface: A Comparison of Methods for Assessment of Quality of Care for Maternal and Neonatal Health Care in Rural Uganda

OBJECTIVES

Efforts to improve access to healthcare in low-income countries will not achieve the maternal and child health (MCH) Sustainable Development Goals unless a concomitant improvement in the quality of care (QoC) occurs. This study measures infrastructure and QoC indicators in rural Ugandan health facilities. Valid measure of the quality of current clinical practices in resource-limited settings are critical for effectively intervening to reduce adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes.

METHODS

Facility-based assessments of infrastructure and clinical quality during labor and delivery were conducted in six primary care health facilities in the greater Masaka area, Uganda in 2017. Data were collected using direct observation of clinical encounters and facility checklists. Direct observation comprised the entire delivery process, from initial client assessment to discharge, and included emergency management (e.g. postpartum hemorrhage, neonatal resuscitation). Health providers were assessed on their adherence to best practice standards of care.

RESULTS

The quality of facility infrastructure was relatively high in facilities, with little variation in availability of equipment and supplies. However, heterogeneity in adherence to best clinical practices was noted across procedure type and facility. Adherence to crude measures of clinical quality were relatively high but more sensitive measures of the same clinical practice were found to be much lower.

CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE

Standard indicators of clinical practice may be insufficient to validly measure clinical quality for maternal and newborn care if we want to document evidence of impact.

Employment based health financing does not support gender equity in universal health coverage

Health financing and entitlement systems linked to employment can disadvantage women, argue Lavanya Vijayasingham and colleagues

Twenty Years Of Antiretroviral Therapy For People Living With HIV: Global Costs, Health Achievements, Economic Benefits

Since the introduction of azidothymidine in 1987, significant improvements in treatment for people living with HIV have yielded substantial improvements in global health as a result of the unique benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART). ART averted 9.5 million deaths worldwide in 1995-2015, with global economic benefits of $1.05 trillion. For every $1 spent on ART, $3.50 in benefits accrued globally. If treatment scale-up achieves the global 90-90-90 targets of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, a total of 34.9 million deaths are projected to be averted between 1995 and 2030. Approximately 40.2 million new HIV infections could also be averted by ART, and economic gains could reach $4.02 trillion in 2030. Having provided ART to 19.5 million people represents a major human achievement. However, 15.2 million infected people are currently not receiving treatment, which represents a significant lost opportunity. Further treatment scale-up could yield even greater health and economic benefits.

Status and determinants of enrollment and dropout of health insurance in Nepal: an explorative study

Background

Compared to other countries in the South Asia Nepal has seen a slow progress in the coverage of health insurance. Despite of a long history of the introduction of health insurance (HI) and a high priority of the government of Nepal it has not been able to push rapidly its social health insurance to its majority of the population. There are many challenges while to achieve universal health insurance in Nepal ranging from existing policy paralysis to program operation. This study aims to identify the enrollment and dropout rates of health insurance and its determinants in selected districts of Nepal.

Methods

The study was conducted while using a mixed method including both quantitative and qualitative approaches. Numerical data related to enrollment and dropout rates were taken from Health Insurance Board (HIB) of Nepal. For the qualitative data, three districts, Bardiya, Chitwan, and Gorkha of Nepal were selected purposively. Enrollment assistants (EA) of social health insurance program were taken as the participants of study. Focus group discussions (FGD) were arranged with the selected EAs using specific guidelines along with unstructured questions. The results from numerical data and focus group discussions are synthesized and presented accordingly.

Results

The findings of the study suggested variation in enrollment and dropout of health insurance in the districts. Enrollment coverage was 13,545 (1%), 249,104 (5%), 1,159,477 (9%) and 1,676,505 (11%) from 2016 to 2019 among total population and dropout rates were 9121(67%), 110,885 (44%) and 444,967 (38%) among total enrollment from 2016 to 2018 respectively. Of total coverage, more than one-third proportion was subsidy enrollment-free enrollment for vulnerable groups. The population characteristics of unwilling and dropout in social health insurance came from relatively well-off families, government employees, businessman, migrants' people, some local political leaders as well as the poor class families. The major determinants of poor enrollment and dropout were mainly due to unavailability of enough drugs, unfriendly behavior of health workers, and indifferent behavior of the care personnel to the insured patients in health care facilities and prefer to take health service in private clinic for their own benefits. The long maturation time to activate health service, limited health package and lack of copayment in different types of health care were the factors related to inefficient program and policy implementation.

Conclusion

There is a high proportion of dropout and subsidy enrollment, the key challenge for sustainability of health insurance program in Nepal. Revisiting of existing HI policy on health care packages, more choices on copayment, capacity building of enrollment assistants and better coordination between health insurance board and health care facilities can increase the enrollment and minimize the dropout.

Status and determinants of enrollment and dropout of health insurance in Nepal: an explorative study

Background

Compared to other countries in the South Asia Nepal has seen a slow progress in the coverage of health insurance. Despite of a long history of the introduction of health insurance (HI) and a high priority of the government of Nepal it has not been able to push rapidly its social health insurance to its majority of the population. There are many challenges while to achieve universal health insurance in Nepal ranging from existing policy paralysis to program operation. This study aims to identify the enrollment and dropout rates of health insurance and its determinants in selected districts of Nepal.

Methods

The study was conducted while using a mixed method including both quantitative and qualitative approaches. Numerical data related to enrollment and dropout rates were taken from Health Insurance Board (HIB) of Nepal. For the qualitative data, three districts, Bardiya, Chitwan, and Gorkha of Nepal were selected purposively. Enrollment assistants (EA) of social health insurance program were taken as the participants of study. Focus group discussions (FGD) were arranged with the selected EAs using specific guidelines along with unstructured questions. The results from numerical data and focus group discussions are synthesized and presented accordingly.

Results

The findings of the study suggested variation in enrollment and dropout of health insurance in the districts. Enrollment coverage was 13,545 (1%), 249,104 (5%), 1,159,477 (9%) and 1,676,505 (11%) from 2016 to 2019 among total population and dropout rates were 9121(67%), 110,885 (44%) and 444,967 (38%) among total enrollment from 2016 to 2018 respectively. Of total coverage, more than one-third proportion was subsidy enrollment-free enrollment for vulnerable groups. The population characteristics of unwilling and dropout in social health insurance came from relatively well-off families, government employees, businessman, migrants' people, some local political leaders as well as the poor class families. The major determinants of poor enrollment and dropout were mainly due to unavailability of enough drugs, unfriendly behavior of health workers, and indifferent behavior of the care personnel to the insured patients in health care facilities and prefer to take health service in private clinic for their own benefits. The long maturation time to activate health service, limited health package and lack of copayment in different types of health care were the factors related to inefficient program and policy implementation.

Conclusion

There is a high proportion of dropout and subsidy enrollment, the key challenge for sustainability of health insurance program in Nepal. Revisiting of existing HI policy on health care packages, more choices on copayment, capacity building of enrollment assistants and better coordination between health insurance board and health care facilities can increase the enrollment and minimize the dropout.

Global health policy in the 21st century: Challenges and opportunities to arrest the global disability burden from musculoskeletal health conditions

The profound burden of disease associated with musculoskeletal health conditions is well established. Despite the unequivocal disability burden and personal and societal consequences, relative to other non-communicable diseases (NCDs), system-level responses for musculoskeletal conditions that are commensurate with their burden have been lacking nationally and globally. Health policy priorities and responses in the 21st century have evolved significantly from the 20th century, with health systems now challenged by an increasing prevalence and impact of NCDs and an unprecedented rate of global population ageing. Further, health policy priorities are now strongly aligned to the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. With this background, what are the challenges and opportunities available to influence global health policy to support high-value care for musculoskeletal health conditions and persistent pain? This paper explores these issues by considering the current global health policy landscape, the role of global health networks, and progress and opportunities since the 2000-2010 Bone and Joint Decade for health policy to support improved musculoskeletal health and high-value musculoskeletal health care.

Economic Case for Scale-up of the WHO Surgical Safety Checklist at the National Level in Sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the economic case for nationwide scale-up of the World Health Organisation (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist using cost-effectiveness and benefit-cost analyses.

BACKGROUND

The Checklist improves surgical outcomes but the economic case for widespread use remains uncertain. For perioperative quality improvement interventions to compete successfully against other worthwhile health and non-health interventions for limited government resources they must demonstrate cost-effectiveness and positive societal benefit.

METHODS

Using data from three countries, we estimated the benefits as the total years of life lost (YLL) due to post-operative mortality averted over a 3 year period; converted the benefits to dollar equivalent values using estimates of the economic value of an additional year of life expectancy; estimated total implementation costs; and determined incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and benefit-cost-ratios (BCR). Costs are reported in international dollars using Word Bank purchasing power parity conversion factors at 2016 price-levels.

RESULTS

In Benin, Cameroon and Madagascar ICERs were: $31, $138 and $118 per additional YLL averted; and BCRs were 62, 29, and 9, respectively. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the associated mortality reduction and increased usage due to Checklist scale-up would need to deviate approximately 10-fold from published data to change our main interpretations.

CONCLUSIONS

According to WHO criteria, Checklist scale-up is considered "very cost-effective" and for every $1 spent the potential return on investment is $9-62. These results compare favourably with other health and non-health interventions and support the economic argument for investing in Checklist scale-up as part of a national strategy for improving surgical outcomes.