The public health and economic benefits of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages

The Short-Term Impacts of the Philadelphia Beverage Tax on Beverage Consumption

INTRODUCTION

On January 1, 2017, Philadelphia implemented a beverage tax of $0.015/ounce on sugar ("regular") and sugar-substitute ("diet") beverages. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the immediate impact of the tax on residents' consumption of soda, fruit drinks, energy drinks, and bottled water.

METHODS

A repeat cross-sectional study design used data from a random-digit-dialing phone survey during a no-tax period (December 6-31, 2016) and a tax period (January 15-February 31, 2017) among 899 respondents in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and 878 respondents in three nearby comparison cities. Survey questions included frequency and volume of bottled water and beverages. Outcomes were daily consumption, and 30-day consumption frequency and volume. Propensity score-weighted difference-in-differences regression was used to control for secular time trend and confounding. Covariates were sociodemographics, BMI, health status, smoking, and alcohol use. Analyses were conducted in 2017.

RESULTS

Within the first 2 months of tax implementation, relative to the comparison cities, in Philadelphia the odds of daily consumption of regular soda was 40% lower (OR=0.6, 95% CI=0.37, 0.97); energy drink was 64% lower (OR=0.36, 95% CI=0.17, 0.76); bottled water was 58% higher (OR=1.58, 95% CI=1.13, 2.20); and the 30-day regular soda consumption frequency was 38% lower (ratio of consumption frequency=0.62, 95% CI=0.40, 0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

Early results suggest that the tax influenced daily consumption of regular soda, energy drinks, and bottled water. Future studies are needed to evaluate longer-term impact of the tax on sugared beverage consumption and substitutions.

Trends and Disparities in Diet Quality Among US Adults by Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participation Status

IMPORTANCE

Unhealthful diet is a top contributor to chronic diseases in the United States. There are growing concerns about disparities in diet among US adults, especially for those who participate in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the largest federal food assistance program. It remains unclear how these disparities may have changed over time.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether disparities in key food groups and nutrients according to participation and eligibility for SNAP have persisted, improved, or worsened over time among US adults.

DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This survey study examined a nationally representative sample of 38 696 adults aged 20 years or older: 6162 SNAP participants, 6692 income-eligible nonparticipants, and 25 842 higher-income individuals from 8 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2014). Data analysis was conducted between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2017.

EXPOSURES

Survey-weighted, energy-adjusted diet by SNAP participation status.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Mean diet scores and proportions of US adults meeting poor, intermediate, or ideal diet scores based on the American Heart Association (AHA) 2020 Strategic Impact Goals for diet, including 8 components (fruits and vegetables; whole grains; fish and shellfish; sugar-sweetened beverages; sodium; nuts, seeds, and legumes; processed meats; and saturated fat).

RESULTS

The survey included 38 696 respondents (20 062 female [51.9%]; 18 386 non-Hispanic white [69.8%]; mean [SD] age, 46.8 [14.8] years). Participants of SNAP were younger (mean [SD] age, 41.4 [15.6] years) than income-eligible nonparticipants (mean [SD] age, 44.9 [19.6] years) or higher-income individuals (mean [SD] age, 47.8 [13.6] years); more likely to be female (3552 of 6162 [58.6%] vs 3504 of 6692 [54.8%] and 13 006 of 25 842 [50.4%], respectively); and less likely to be non-Hispanic white (2062 of 6162 [48.2%] vs 2594 of 6692 [56.0%] and 13 712 of 25 842 [75.8%], respectively). From surveys conducted in 2003 and 2004 to those conducted in 2013 and 2014, SNAP participants had less improvement in AHA diet scores than both income-eligible nonparticipants and higher-income individuals (change in mean score = 0.57 [95% CI, -2.18 to 0.33] vs 2.56 [95% CI, 0.36-4.76] and 3.84 [95% CI, 2.39-5.29], respectively; P = .04 for interaction). Disparities persisted for most foods and nutrients and worsened for processed meats, added sugars, and nuts and seeds. In 2013 to 2014, a higher proportion of SNAP participants had poor diet scores compared with income-eligible nonparticipants and higher-income individuals (461 of 950 [53.5%] vs 247 of 690 [38.0%] and 773 of 2797 [28.7%]; P < .001 for difference), and a lower proportion had intermediate diet scores (477 of 950 [45.3%] vs 428 of 690 [59.8%] and 1933 of 2797 [68.7%]; P < .001 for difference). The proportion of participants with ideal diet scores was low in all 3 groups (12 of 950 [1.3%] vs 15 of 690 [2.2%] and 91 of 2797 [2.6%]; P = .26 for difference).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Dietary disparities persisted or worsened for most dietary components among US adults. Despite improvement in some dietary components, SNAP participants still do not meet the AHA goals for a healthful diet.

Emerging Trends in Clinical Research: With Implications for Population Health and Health Policy

Policy Points: Significant advances in clinical medicine that have broader societal relevance may be less accessible to population health researchers and policymakers because of increased specialization within fields. We describe important recent clinical advances and discuss their broader societal impact. These advances include more expansive strategies for disease prevention, the rise of precision medicine, applications of human microbiome research, and new and highly successful treatments for hepatitis C infection. These recent developments in clinical research raise important issues surrounding health care costs and equitable resource allocation that necessitate an ongoing dialogue among the fields of clinical medicine, population health, and health policy.

CONTEXT

Developments in clinical medicine have important implications for population health, and there is a need for interdisciplinary engagement among clinical medicine, the social sciences, and public health research. The aim of this article is to help bridge the divide between these fields by exploring major recent advances in clinical medicine that have important implications for population health.

METHODS

We reviewed the most cited articles published from 2010 to 2015 in 5 high-impact clinical journals and selected 5 randomized controlled trials and 2 related clinical practice guidelines that are broadly relevant to population health and policy.

FINDINGS

We discuss the following themes: (1) expanding indications for drug therapy and the inherent medicalization of the population as highlighted by studies and clinical guidelines supporting lower blood pressure targets or widespread statin use; (2) the tension in nutritional research between quantifying the impact of isolated nutrients and studying specific foods and dietary patterns, for example, the role of the Mediterranean diet in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease; (3) the issue of high medication costs and the challenge of providing equitable access raised by the development of new and effective treatments for hepatitis C infection; (4) emerging clinical applications of research on the human microbiome as illustrated by fecal transplant to treat Clostridium difficile infections; and (5) the promise and limitations of precision medicine as demonstrated by the rise of novel targeted therapies in oncology.

CONCLUSIONS

These developments in clinical science hold promise for improving individual and population health and raise important questions about resource allocation, the role of prevention, and health disparities.

Sugar-Sweetened Beverage, Obesity, and Type 2 Diabetes in Children and Adolescents: Policies, Taxation, and Programs

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Obesity has grown at an alarming rate in children and adolescents. Concurrently, consumption on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) also rose significantly. This review provides an overview of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) related to SSBs and current policies restricting SSBs in schools, school-based interventions, and taxation on reducing SSB intake and obesity. We also discuss challenges of and future steps for these initiatives.

RECENT FINDINGS

Clinical and epidemiological studies suggest a strong association between SSB intake and obesity and T2DM. School food policies have been initiated at federal, state, and local levels. School-based interventions have shown positive effects on SSB intake and obesity reduction. Taxation on SSBs is promising in combating obesity and in generating revenue. Challenges towards compliance and implementation of the policies and programs exist. The relationship between SSB and obesity and T2DM is a complex problem which requires comprehensive solutions. Continued efforts in restricting SSBs in schools are needed. Intervention programs should be tailored to age, gender, language, and culture and involve participation from families and local communities. Taxation can reduce SSB consumption by direct economic incentive, earmarking revenues to support healthy foods, and sending negative message. However, a higher tax rate may be necessary to have a measurable effect on weight.

The Science of Obesity Management: An Endocrine Society Scientific Statement

The prevalence of obesity, measured by body mass index, has risen to unacceptable levels in both men and women in the United States and worldwide with resultant hazardous health implications. Genetic, environmental, and behavioral factors influence the development of obesity, and both the general public and health professionals stigmatize those who suffer from the disease. Obesity is associated with and contributes to a shortened life span, type 2 diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, some cancers, kidney disease, obstructive sleep apnea, gout, osteoarthritis, and hepatobiliary disease, among others. Weight loss reduces all of these diseases in a dose-related manner-the more weight lost, the better the outcome. The phenotype of "medically healthy obesity" appears to be a transient state that progresses over time to an unhealthy phenotype, especially in children and adolescents. Weight loss is best achieved by reducing energy intake and increasing energy expenditure. Programs that are effective for weight loss include peer-reviewed and approved lifestyle modification programs, diets, commercial weight-loss programs, exercise programs, medications, and surgery. Over-the-counter herbal preparations that some patients use to treat obesity have limited, if any, data documenting their efficacy or safety, and there are few regulatory requirements. Weight regain is expected in all patients, especially when treatment is discontinued. When making treatment decisions, clinicians should consider body fat distribution and individual health risks in addition to body mass index.

The nutritional content of supermarket beverages: a cross-sectional analysis of New Zealand, Australia, Canada and the UK

OBJECTIVE

To compare the nutritional content, serving size and taxation potential of supermarket beverages from four different Western countries.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis. Multivariate regression analysis and χ 2 comparisons were used to detect differences between countries.

SETTING

Supermarkets in New Zealand (NZ), Australia, Canada and the UK.

SUBJECTS

Supermarket beverages in the following categories: fruit juices, fruit-based drinks, carbonated soda, waters and sports/energy drinks.

RESULTS

A total of 4157 products were analysed, including 749 from NZ, 1738 from Australia, 740 from Canada and 930 from the UK. NZ had the highest percentage of beverages with sugar added to them (52 %), while the UK had the lowest (39 %, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

There is substantial difference between countries in the mean energy, serving size and proportion of products eligible for fiscal sugar taxation. Current self-regulatory approaches used in these countries may not be effective to reduce the availability, marketing and consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and subsequent intake of free sugars.

Effects of Social Norms Information and Self-Affirmation on Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption Intentions and Behaviors

The separate and combined efficacy of a social norms and a self-affirmation intervention to motivate decreased sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption was examined in two experiments. College students were randomly assigned to receive information about SSB consumption risks, norms, both, or neither. In addition, participants performed either a self-affirmation or control task. Self-affirmation only weakly affected SSB consumption intentions and behaviors. However, participants in Experiment 2 who received risks information, norms information, or both reported greater SSB reduction intentions than did those who received no information. Two-weeks later, those who received both types of information reported more frequent behavior change preparations, and it appears this effect may have been partially mediated by the changes in intentions to reduce SSB consumption.

Sugar in Infants, Children and Adolescents: A Position Paper of the European Society for Paediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition Committee on Nutrition

The consumption of sugars, particularly sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs; beverages or drinks that contain added caloric sweeteners (ie, sucrose, high-fructose corn syrup, fruit juice concentrates), in European children and adolescents exceeds current recommendations. This is of concern because there is no nutritional requirement for free sugars, and infants have an innate preference for sweet taste, which may be modified and reinforced by pre- and postnatal exposures. Sugar-containing beverages/free sugars increase the risk for overweight/obesity and dental caries, can result in poor nutrient supply and reduced dietary diversity, and may be associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular risk, and other health effects. The term "free sugars," includes all monosaccharides/disaccharides added to foods/beverages by the manufacturer/cook/consumer, plus sugars naturally present in honey/syrups/unsweetened fruit juices and fruit juice concentrates. Sugar naturally present in intact fruits and lactose in amounts naturally present in human milk or infant formula, cow/goat milk, and unsweetened milk products is not free sugar. Intake of free sugars should be reduced and minimised with a desirable goal of <5% energy intake in children and adolescents aged ≥2 to 18 years. Intake should probably be even lower in infants and toddlers <2 years. Healthy approaches to beverage and dietary consumption should be established in infancy, with the aim of preventing negative health effects in later childhood and adulthood. Sugar should preferably be consumed as part of a main meal and in a natural form as human milk, milk, unsweetened dairy products, and fresh fruits, rather than as SSBs, fruit juices, smoothies, and/or sweetened milk products. Free sugars in liquid form should be replaced by water or unsweetened milk drinks. National Authorities should adopt policies aimed at reducing the intake of free sugars in infants, children and adolescents. This may include education, improved labelling, restriction of advertising, introducing standards for kindergarten and school meals, and fiscal measures, depending on local circumstances.

Beverage consumption in Australian children

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

While beverages are an important dietary source of water and some essential nutrients, consumption of sweet beverages has increasingly been linked to adverse health outcomes. Currently there is a paucity of longitudinal consumption data on beverage consumption in Australian children.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children has run biennially since 2004. Twenty four-hour recall data collected over 6 waves from the birth cohort (aged 0-1 year at baseline) was analysed and demographics were assessed for associations.

RESULTS

Five thousand one hundred and seven children participated at baseline, with a 71-90% retention of participants at each wave. Water consumption remained consistent with age over time, with more than 90% consuming more than one glass in the last 24-h. Proportions of fruit juice consumers decreased overall. Soft drink and cordial consumer proportions increased from 1% (0-1 year), to 28% (2 years) and 43% (10 years). Between 2 and 10 years, proportions of consumption of full-cream milk decreased by 8% and for skim milk this proportion increased by 51%. High proportions of consumers of soft drink/cordial was significantly associated with older children, males, children with a medical condition, living in a rural area, low socio-economic status and Indigenous Australians.

CONCLUSIONS

Water consumption remained consistently high across the ages, while fruit juice was commonly introduced into the diet early childhood. While proportions of fruit juice consumers decreased after the age of 2 years, proportions of soft drink consumers increased. The findings from this study should assist with surveillance data and inform policy and interventions aimed at reducing consumption of sweet beverages.

Trends in beverage prices following the introduction of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Barbados

A 10% excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) was implemented in Barbados in September 2015. A national evaluation has been established to assess the impact of the tax. We present a descriptive analysis of initial price changes following implementation of the SSB tax using price data provided by a major supermarket chain in Barbados over the period 2014-2016. We summarize trends in price changes for SSBs and non-SSBs before and after the tax using year-on-year mean price per liter. We find that prior to the tax, the year-on-year growth of SSB and non-SSB prices was very similar (approximately 1%). During the quarter in which the tax was implemented, the trends diverged, with SSB price growth increasing to 3% and that of non-SSBs decreasing slightly. The growth of SSB prices outpaced non-SSBs prices in each quarter thereafter, reaching 5.9% compared to <1% for non-SSBs. Future analyses will assess the trends in prices of SSBs and non-SSBs over a longer period and will integrate price data from additional sources to assess heterogeneity of post-tax price changes. A continued examination of the impact of the SSB tax in Barbados will expand the evidence base available to policymakers worldwide in considering SSB taxes as a lever for reducing the consumption of added sugar at the population level.

Partisan Responses to Public Health Messages: Motivated Reasoning and Sugary Drink Taxes

This study examines the public's motivated reasoning of competitive messages about sugary drink taxes, a public health policy approach attempted with some recent success in the United States. In an experiment embedded in a nationally representative survey fielded in the fall of 2012, we randomized participants (N = 5,147) to receive one of four messages: control, a strong protax message, a two-sided message, or a message refuting arguments made in soda company antitax messages. The protax message showed no effects on tax support, while the two-sided message depressed Republicans' support. The refutation message boosted independents' support but produced backlash among Republicans. This motivated response was pronounced among Republicans who were plausibly previously exposed to the sugary drink tax debate. These findings reinforce the communication challenges in an increasingly politicized US health policy discourse.

Food Addiction, High-Glycemic-Index Carbohydrates, and Obesity

BACKGROUND

Treatment success in obesity remains low, and recently food addiction has been delineated as an underlying etiologic factor with therapeutic relevance. Specifically, current treatment focuses on reduced food intake and increase of physical activity, whereas interventions for addiction encompass behavioral therapy, abstinence, and environmental interventions such as taxation, restrictions on advertising, and regulation of school menus.

CONTENT

Here, we reviewed the pertinent literature on food addiction with a specific focus on the role of high-glycemic-index carbohydrates in triggering addictive symptoms. Three lines of evidence support the concept of food addiction: (a) behavioral responses to certain foods are similar to substances of abuse; (b) food intake regulation and addiction rely on similar neurobiological circuits; (c) individuals suffering from obesity or addiction show similar neurochemical- and brain activation patterns.High-glycemic-index carbohydrates elicit a rapid shift in blood glucose and insulin levels, akin to the pharmacokinetics of addictive substances. Similar to drugs of abuse, glucose and insulin signal to the mesolimbic system to modify dopamine concentration. Sugar elicits addiction-like craving, and self-reported problem foods are rich in high-glycemic-index carbohydrates. These properties make high-glycemic-index carbohydrates plausible triggers for food addiction.

SUMMARY

We argue that food addiction is a plausible etiological factor contributing to the heterogeneous condition and phenotype of obesity. In at least a subset of vulnerable individuals, high-glycemic-index carbohydrates trigger addiction-like neurochemical and behavioral responses.

Financial incentives and purchase restrictions in a food benefit program affect the types of foods and beverages purchased: results from a randomized trial

Background

This research evaluated the effects of financial incentives and purchase restrictions on food purchasing in a food benefit program for low income people.

Methods

Participants (n=279) were randomized to groups: 1) Incentive- 30% financial incentive for fruits and vegetables purchased with food benefits; 2) Restriction- no purchase of sugar-sweetened beverages, sweet baked goods, or candies with food benefits; 3) Incentive plus Restriction; or 4) Control- no incentive or restrictions. Participants received a study-specific debit card where funds were added monthly for 12-weeks. Food purchase receipts were collected over 16 weeks. Total dollars spent on grocery purchases and by targeted food categories were computed from receipts. Group differences were examined using general linear models.

Results

Weekly purchases of fruit significantly increased in the Incentive plus Restriction ($4.8) compared to the Restriction ($1.7) and Control ($2.1) groups (p <.01). Sugar-sweetened beverage purchases significantly decreased in the Incentive plus Restriction

(−$0.8 per week) and Restriction ($-1.4 per week) groups compared to the Control group (+$1.5; p< .0001). Sweet baked goods purchases significantly decreased in the Restriction (−$0.70 per week) compared to the Control group (+$0.82 per week; p < .01).

Conclusions

Paired financial incentives and restrictions on foods and beverages purchased with food program funds may support more healthful food purchases compared to no incentives or restrictions.

Clinical trial registration

Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT02643576.

Violence exposure and adolescents' same-day obesogenic behaviors: New findings and a replication

OBJECTIVE

To test whether exposure to violence is associated with same-day increases in obesogenic behaviors among young adolescents, including unhealthy food and beverage consumption, poor quality sleep, and lack of physical activity.

METHODS

Young at-risk adolescents between 12 and 15 years of age were recruited via telephone screening from low-income neighborhoods. Adolescents and their parents completed in-person assessments, followed by Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) delivered to 151 adolescents' mobile phones three times a day for 30 days (4329 person days). Three obesogenic behaviors - unhealthy food consumption, poor sleep quality, and lack of physical activity - and violence exposure were assessed daily. Adolescents' body mass index (BMI) was assessed prior to the EMA and 18 months later. A replication was performed among 395 adolescents from a population-representative sample (with 5276 EMA person days).

RESULTS

On days that at-risk adolescents were exposed versus not exposed to violence, they were more likely to consume unhealthy foods and beverages (b = 0.12, p = 0.01), report feeling tired the next morning (OR = 1.58, p < 0.01), and to be active (OR = 1.61, p < 0.01). At-risk adolescents who reported higher consumption of soda and caffeinated beverages during the 30-day EMA were more likely to experience increases in BMI in later adolescence. Findings related to sleep and activity were supported in the population-based replication sample; however, no significant same-day associations were found between violence exposure and unhealthy dietary consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence that exposure to violence is associated with same-day unhealthy dietary consumption among at-risk adolescents and next-day tiredness related to sleep quality among adolescents from both at-risk and normative populations. Findings also point to unhealthy soda consumption during early adolescence as an important predictor of weight gain among at-risk adolescents.

The Untapped Power of Soda Taxes: Incentivizing Consumers, Generating Revenue, and Altering Corporate Behavior

Globally, soda taxes are gaining momentum as powerful interventions to discourage sugar consumption and thereby reduce the growing burden of obesity and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Evidence from early adopters including Mexico and Berkeley, California, confirms that soda taxes can disincentivize consumption through price increases and raise revenue to support government programs. The United Kingdom's new graduated levy on sweetened beverages is yielding yet another powerful impact: soda manufacturers are reformulating their beverages to significantly reduce the sugar content. Product reformulation - whether incentivized or mandatory - helps reduce overconsumption of sugars at the societal level, moving away from the long-standing notion of individual responsibility in favor of collective strategies to promote health. But as a matter of health equity, soda product reformulation should occur globally, especially in low- and middleincome countries (LMICs), which are increasingly targeted as emerging markets for soda and junk food and are disproportionately impacted by NCDs. As global momentum for sugar reduction increases, governments and public health advocates should harness the power of soda taxes to tackle the economic, social, and informational drivers of soda consumption, driving improvements in food environments and the public's health.

Funding quality pre-kindergarten slots with Philadelphia's new 'sugary drink tax': simulating effects of using an excise tax to address a social determinant of health

OBJECTIVE

Philadelphia passed a 1·5-cent-per-ounce sweetened beverage tax (SBT). Revenue will fund 10 000 quality pre-kindergarten slots for poor children. It is imperative to understand how revenue from SBT can be used to fund programmes to address education and other social determinants of health. The objective of the present study was to simulate quality pre-kindergarten attendance, educational achievement and sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption among Philadelphia children and adolescents under six intervention scenarios: (i) no intervention; (ii) 10 000 additional quality pre-kindergarten slots; (iii) a 1·5-cent-per-ounce SBT; (iv) expanded pre-kindergarten and 1·5-cent-per-ounce SBT; (v) a 3-cent-per-ounce SBT; and (vi) expanded pre-kindergarten and 3-cent-per-ounce SBT.

DESIGN

We used an agent-based model to estimate pre-kindergarten enrolment, educational achievement and SSB consumption under the six policy scenarios. We identified key parameters in the model from the published literature and secondary analyses of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics - Child Development Supplement.

SETTING

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.

SUBJECTS

Philadelphia children and adolescents aged 4-18 years.

RESULTS

A 1·5-cents-per-ounce tax would reduce SSB consumption by 1·3 drinks/week among Philadelphia children and adolescents relative to no intervention, with larger effects among children below the poverty level. Quality pre-kindergarten expansion magnifies the effect of the SBT by 8 %, but has the largest effect on moderate-income children just above the poverty level. The SBT and quality pre-kindergarten programme each reduce SSB consumption, but primarily benefit different children and adolescents.

CONCLUSIONS

Pairing an excise tax with a complementary programme to improve a social determinant of health represents a progressive strategy to combat obesity, a disease regressive in its social patterning.

Improving food environments and tackling obesity: A realist systematic review of the policy success of regulatory interventions targeting population nutrition

Background

This systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42015025276) employs a realist approach to investigate the effect of “real-world” policies targeting different aspects of the food environment that shape individual and collective nutrition.

Objectives

We were interested in assessing intermediate outcomes along the assumed causal pathway to “policy success”, in addition to the final outcome of changed consumption patterns.

Data sources

We performed a search of 16 databases through October 2015, with no initial restriction by language.

Study eligibility criteria

We included all publications that reported the effect of statutory provisions aimed at reducing the consumption of energy-dense foods and beverages in the general population. We allowed all methodological approaches that contained some measure of comparison, including studies of implementation progress.

Study appraisal and synthesis methods

We reviewed included studies using the appraisal tools for pre-post and observational studies developed by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Given the considerable heterogeneity in interventions assessed, study designs employed, and outcome measures reported, we opted for a narrative synthesis of results.

Results and implications

Results drawn from 36 peer-reviewed articles and grey literature reports demonstrated that isolated regulatory interventions can improve intermediate outcomes, but fail to affect consumption at clinically significant levels. The included literature covered six different types of interventions, with 19 studies reporting on calorie posting on chain restaurant menus. The large majority of the identified interventions were conducted in the US. Early results from recent taxation measures were published after the review cut-off date but these suggested more favorable effects on consumption levels. Nevertheless, the evidence assessed in this review suggests that current policies are generally falling short of anticipated health impacts.

Health and economic benefits of reducing sugar intake in the USA, including effects via non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a microsimulation model

OBJECTIVES

Excessive consumption of added sugars in the human diet has been associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes (T2D), coronary heart disease (CHD) and other elements of the metabolic syndrome. Recent studies have shown that non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a critical pathway to metabolic syndrome. This model assesses the health and economic benefits of interventions aimed at reducing intake of added sugars.

METHODS

Using data from US National Health Surveys and current literature, we simulated an open cohort, for the period 2015-2035. We constructed a microsimulation model with Markov chains for NAFLD (including steatosis, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)), body mass index, T2D and CHD. We assessed reductions in population disease prevalence, disease-attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and costs, with interventions that reduce added sugars consumption by either 20% or 50%.

FINDINGS

The model estimated that a 20% reduction in added sugars intake will reduce prevalence of hepatic steatosis, NASH, cirrhosis, HCC, obesity, T2D and CHD. Incidence of T2D and CHD would be expected to decrease by 19.9 (95% CI 12.8 to 27.0) and 9.4 (95% CI 3.1 to 15.8) cases per 100 000 people after 20 years, respectively. A 20% reduction in consumption is also projected to annually avert 0.767 million (M) DALYs (95% CI 0.757M to 0.777M) and a total of US$10.3 billion (B) (95% CI 10.2B to 10.4B) in discounted direct medical costs by 2035. These effects increased proportionally when added sugars intake were reduced by 50%.

CONCLUSIONS

The decrease in incidence and prevalence of disease is similar to results in other models, but averted costs and DALYs were higher, mainly due to inclusion of NAFLD and CHD. The model suggests that efforts to reduce consumption of added sugars may result in significant public health and economic benefits.

Effectiveness and equity of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation

Sanjay Basu and Kristine Madsen discuss the effects of taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages in both Australia and Berkeley, USA.

Modelled health benefits of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax across different socioeconomic groups in Australia: A cost-effectiveness and equity analysis

BACKGROUND

A sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax in Mexico has been effective in reducing consumption of SSBs, with larger decreases for low-income households. The health and financial effects across socioeconomic groups are important considerations for policy-makers. From a societal perspective, we assessed the potential cost-effectiveness, health gains, and financial impacts by socioeconomic position (SEP) of a 20% SSB tax for Australia.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Australia-specific price elasticities were used to predict decreases in SSB consumption for each Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) quintile. Changes in body mass index (BMI) were based on SSB consumption, BMI from the Australian Health Survey 2011-12, and energy balance equations. Markov cohort models were used to estimate the health impact for the Australian population, taking into account obesity-related diseases. Health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained, healthcare costs saved, and out-of-pocket costs were estimated for each SEIFA quintile. Loss of economic welfare was calculated as the amount of deadweight loss in excess of taxation revenue. A 20% SSB tax would lead to HALY gains of 175,300 (95% CI: 68,700; 277,800) and healthcare cost savings of AU$1,733 million (m) (95% CI: $650m; $2,744m) over the lifetime of the population, with 49.5% of the total health gains accruing to the 2 lowest quintiles. We estimated the increase in annual expenditure on SSBs to be AU$35.40/capita (0.54% of expenditure on food and non-alcoholic drinks) in the lowest SEIFA quintile, a difference of AU$3.80/capita (0.32%) compared to the highest quintile. Annual tax revenue was estimated at AU$642.9m (95% CI: $348.2m; $1,117.2m). The main limitations of this study, as with all simulation models, is that the results represent only the best estimate of a potential effect in the absence of stronger direct evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that from a 20% tax on SSBs, the most HALYs gained and healthcare costs saved would accrue to the most disadvantaged quintiles in Australia. Whilst those in more disadvantaged areas would pay more SSB tax, the difference between areas is small. The equity of the tax could be further improved if the tax revenue were used to fund initiatives benefiting those with greater disadvantage.

Expected population weight and diabetes impact of the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico

STUDY QUESTION

What effect on body mass index, obesity and diabetes can we expect from the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico?

METHODS

Using recently published estimates of the reductions in beverage purchases due to the tax, we modelled its expected long-term impacts on body mass index (BMI), obesity and diabetes. Microsimulations based on a nationally representative dataset were used to estimate the impact of the tax on BMI and obesity. A Markov population model, built upon an age-period-cohort model of diabetes incidence, was used to estimate the impact on diagnosed diabetes in Mexico. To analyse the potential of tax increases we also modelled a 2-peso-per-litre tax scenario.

STUDY ANSWER AND LIMITATIONS

Ten years after the implementation of the tax, we expect an average reduction of 0.15 kg/m2 per person, which translates into a 2.54% reduction in obesity prevalence. People in the lowest level of socioeconomic status and those between 20 and 35 years of age showed the largest reductions in BMI and overweight and obesity prevalence. Simulations show that by 2030, under the current implementation of 1-peso-per-litre, the tax would prevent 86 to 134 thousand cases of diabetes. Overall, the 2-peso-per-litre scenario is expected to produce twice as much of a reduction. These estimates assume the tax effect on consumption remains stable over time. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of findings; similar results were obtained with various parameter assumptions and alternative modelling approaches.

WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS

The sugar-sweetened beverages tax in Mexico is expected to produce sizable and sustained reductions in obesity and diabetes. Increasing the tax could produce larger benefits. While encouraging, estimates will need to be updated once data on direct changes in consumption becomes available.

Taxing Sugary Beverages Reduces Their Purchase, Especially Among Poor Households

ARTICLE TITLE AND BIBLIOGRAPHIC INFORMATION

Beverage purchases from stores in Mexico under the excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages: observational study. Colchera MA, Popkin BM, Rivera JA, Ng SW. Br Med J 2016;352:h6704.

SOURCE OF FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública and Carolina Population Center.

TYPE OF STUDY/DESIGN

Observational study.

Global Trends in the Affordability of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, 1990–2016

Introduction

The objective of this study was to quantify changes in the affordability of sugar-sweetened beverages, a product implicated as a contributor to rising rates of obesity worldwide, as a function of product price and personal income.

Methods

We used international survey data in a retrospective analysis of 40 high-income and 42 low-income and middle-income countries from 1990 to 2016. Prices of sugar-sweetened beverages were from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s World Cost of Living Survey. Income and inflation data were from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook Database. The measure of affordability was the average annual percentage change in the relative-income price of sugar-sweetened beverages, which is the annual rate of change in the proportion of per capita gross domestic product needed to purchase 100 L of Coca-Cola in each country in each year of the study.

Results

In 79 of 82 countries, the proportion of income needed to purchase sugar-sweetened beverages declined on average (using annual measures) during the study period. This pattern, described as an increase in the affordability of sugar-sweetened beverages, indicated that sugar-sweetened beverages became more affordable more rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries, a fact largely attributable to the higher rate of income growth in those countries than to a decline in the real price of sugar-sweetened beverages.

Conclusion

Without deliberate policy action to raise prices, sugar-sweetened beverages are likely to become more affordable and more widely consumed around the world.

Obesity-related health impacts of fuel excise taxation- an evidence review and cost-effectiveness study

BACKGROUND

Reducing automobile dependence and improving rates of active transport may reduce the impact of obesogenic environments, thereby decreasing population prevalence of obesity and other diseases where physical inactivity is a risk factor. Increasing the relative cost of driving by an increase in fuel taxation may therefore be a promising public health intervention for obesity prevention.

METHODS

A scoping review of the evidence for obesity or physical activity effect of changes in fuel price or taxation was undertaken. Potential health benefits of an increase in fuel excise taxation in Australia were quantified using Markov modelling to simulate obesity, injury and physical activity related health impacts of a fuel excise taxation intervention for the 2010 Australian population. Health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained and healthcare cost savings from diseases averted were estimated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were reported and results were tested through sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Limited evidence on the effect of policies such as fuel taxation on health-related behaviours currently exists. Only three studies were identified reporting associations between fuel price or taxation and obesity, whilst nine studies reported associations specifically with physical activity, walking or cycling. Estimates of the cross price elasticity of demand for public transport with respect to fuel price vary, with limited consensus within the literature on a probable range for the Australian context. Cost-effectiveness modelling of a AUD0.10 per litre increase in fuel excise taxation using a conservative estimate of cross price elasticity for public transport suggests that the intervention would be cost-effective from a limited societal perspective (237 HALYs gained, AUD2.6 M in healthcare cost savings), measured against a comparator of no additional increase in fuel excise. Under "best case" assumptions, the intervention would be more cost-effective (3181 HALYs gained, AUD34.2 M in healthcare cost savings).

CONCLUSIONS

Exploratory analysis suggests that an intervention to increase fuel excise taxation may deliver obesity and physical activity related benefits. Whilst such an intervention has significant potential for cost-effectiveness, potential equity and acceptability impacts would need to be minimised. A better understanding of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a range of transport interventions is required in order to achieve more physically active transport environments.

The effect of prices on nutrition: Comparing the impact of product- and nutrient-specific taxes

This paper provides an analysis of the role of prices in determining food purchases and nutrition using very detailed transaction-level observations for a large, nationally-representative sample of US consumers over the period 2002-2007. Using product-specific nutritional information, we develop a new method of partitioning the product space into relevant nutritional clusters that define a set of nutritionally-bundled goods, which parsimoniously characterize consumer choice sets. We then estimate a large utility-derived demand system over this joint product-nutrient space that allows us to calculate price and expenditure elasticities. Using our structural demand estimates, we simulate the role of product taxes on soda, sugar-sweetened beverages, packaged meals, and snacks, and nutrient taxes on fat, salt, and sugar. We find that a 20% nutrient tax has a significantly larger impact on nutrition than an equivalent product tax, due to the fact that these are broader-based taxes. However, the costs of these taxes in terms of consumer utility are only about 70 cents per household per day. A sugar tax in particular is a powerful tool to induce healthier nutritive bundles among consumers.

Dietary quality changes in response to a sugar-sweetened beverage-reduction intervention: results from the Talking Health randomized controlled clinical trial

Background: The reduction of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake may be beneficial for weight management and other related health conditions; however, to our knowledge, no data exist regarding the spontaneous changes in other dietary components or the overall dietary quality after an SSB-reduction intervention.Objectives: We explored longitudinal changes within and between an SSB-reduction intervention (SIPsmartER) and a physical activity intervention (MoveMore) with respect to spontaneous changes in 1) energy intake and macronutrients and micronutrients, 2) dietary quality [Healthy Eating Index-2010 (HEI)], and 3) beverage categories.Design: Participants were enrolled in a 6-mo, community-based behavioral trial and randomly assigned into either the SIPsmartER (n = 149) intervention group or the MoveMore (n = 143) matched-contact comparison group. Dietary intake was assessed through a mean of three 24-h dietary recalls at baseline and 6 mo. Dietary recalls were analyzed with the use of nutritional analysis software. A multilevel, mixed-effects linear regression with intention-to-treat analyses is presented.Results: SIPsmartER participants showed a significant reduction in total SSBs (mean decrease: -366 mL; P ≤ 0.001). Several spontaneous changes occurred within the SIPsmartER group and, compared with the MoveMore group, included significant HEI improvements for empty calorie, total vegetable, and total HEI scores (mean increases: 2.6, 0.3, and 2.6, respectively; all P ≤ 0.01). Additional positive changes were shown, including significant decreases in total energy intake, trans fat, added sugars, and total beverage energy (all P ≤ 0.05). Few dietary changes were noted in the MoveMore group over the 6-mo intervention.Conclusions: Intervention of the single dietary component SSB resulted in additional spontaneous and beneficial dietary changes. Interventions that target a single dietary change, such as limiting SSB intake to <240 mL/d (<8 fl oz/d), may improve the overall dietary quality health and provide motivation to make additional dietary changes. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02193009.

Declining consumption of added sugars and sugar-sweetened beverages in Australia: a challenge for obesity prevention

Background: Reduced intakes of added sugars and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been the main focus of efforts to stall obesity. Although obesity has risen steeply in Australia, some evidence suggests that added-sugars and SSB intakes have declined over the same time frame.Objective: We investigated recent trends in the availability of sugars and sweeteners and changes in intakes of total sugars, added sugars, and SSBs in Australia by using multiple, independent data sources.Design: The study was designed to compare relevant data published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO Statistics Division Database (FAOSTAT)], the Australian government, academia, and the food industry.Results: With the use of the FAOSTAT food balance sheets for Australia, the per capita availability of added or refined sugars and sweeteners was shown to have fallen 16% from 152 g/d in 1980 to 127 g/d in 2011 (P-trend = 0.001). In national dietary surveys in 1995 and 2011-2012, added-sugars intake declined markedly in adult men (from 72 to 59 g/d; -18%) but not in women (44-42 g/d; NS). As a proportion of total energy, added-sugars intake fell 10% in adult men but nonsignificantly in adult women. Between 1995 and 2011-2012, the proportion of energy from SSBs (including 100% juice) declined 10% in adult men and 20% in women. More marked changes were observed in children aged 2-18 y. Data from national grocery sales indicated that per capita added-sugars intakes derived from carbonated soft drinks fell 26% between 1997 and 2011 (from 23 to 17 g/d) with similar trends for noncarbonated beverages.Conclusions: In Australia, 4 independent data sets confirmed shorter- and longer-term declines in the availability and intake of added sugars, including those contributed by SSBs. The findings challenge the widespread belief that energy from added sugars or sugars in solution are uniquely linked to the prevalence of obesity.

SSB taxes and diet quality in US preschoolers: estimated changes in the 2010 Healthy Eating Index

BACKGROUND

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been proposed as a strategy to combat child obesity. Yet it is unclear how a tax on SSBs might influence the overall quality of diet in preschool children. Thus, we use simulated price increases and the 2010 Healthy Eating Index (HEI-2010) to explore the relationship between SSB taxes and diet quality in preschool children.

METHODS

Price and purchase data from the 2009-2012 Nielsen Homescan Panel and a two-part marginal effects model were used to estimate relative changes in purchases with a 20% increase in the price of SSBs. Demand elasticities were applied to dietary intake data for children ages 2-5 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2009-2010 and 2011-2012) to estimate the impact of a 20% SSB tax on dietary intake and quality (HEI-2010).

RESULTS

A 20% increase in the price of SSBs was associated with lower total caloric intake (-28 kcal d^-1 , p < 0.01), caloric intake from juice drinks (-20 kcal d^-1 , p < 0.01), added sugars (-4.1 servings d^-1 , p = 0.03), refined grains (-0.63 servings d^-1 , p < 0.01) and total meat (-0.56 servings d^-1 , p < 0.01). Beneficial decreases in empty calories and refined grains were offset by unfavourable changes in fatty acid profile, total protein, vegetables and fruit, such that total HEI scores (0-100 range) were not meaningfully changed with a 20% increase in SSB price (difference: -0.85, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

A 20% tax on SSBs could decrease caloric intake, and intakes of added sugars and SSBs, but may not improve diet quality as an isolated intervention among US preschool children.

Changes in prices, sales, consumer spending, and beverage consumption one year after a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Berkeley, California, US: A before-and-after study

BACKGROUND

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) meant to improve health and raise revenue are being adopted, yet evaluation is scarce. This study examines the association of the first penny per ounce SSB excise tax in the United States, in Berkeley, California, with beverage prices, sales, store revenue/consumer spending, and usual beverage intake.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Methods included comparison of pre-taxation (before 1 January 2015) and first-year post-taxation (1 March 2015-29 February 2016) measures of (1) beverage prices at 26 Berkeley stores; (2) point-of-sale scanner data on 15.5 million checkouts for beverage prices, sales, and store revenue for two supermarket chains covering three Berkeley and six control non-Berkeley large supermarkets in adjacent cities; and (3) a representative telephone survey (17.4% cooperation rate) of 957 adult Berkeley residents. Key hypotheses were that (1) the tax would be passed through to the prices of taxed beverages among the chain stores in which Berkeley implemented the tax in 2015; (2) sales of taxed beverages would decline, and sales of untaxed beverages would rise, in Berkeley stores more than in comparison non-Berkeley stores; (3) consumer spending per transaction (checkout episode) would not increase in Berkeley stores; and (4) self-reported consumption of taxed beverages would decline. Main outcomes and measures included changes in inflation-adjusted prices (cents/ounce), beverage sales (ounces), consumers' spending measured as store revenue (inflation-adjusted dollars per transaction) in two large chains, and usual beverage intake (grams/day and kilocalories/day). Tax pass-through (changes in the price after imposition of the tax) for SSBs varied in degree and timing by store type and beverage type. Pass-through was complete in large chain supermarkets (+1.07¢/oz, p = 0.001) and small chain supermarkets and chain gas stations (1.31¢/oz, p = 0.004), partial in pharmacies (+0.45¢/oz, p = 0.03), and negative in independent corner stores and independent gas stations (-0.64¢/oz, p = 0.004). Sales-unweighted mean price change from scanner data was +0.67¢/oz (p = 0.00) (sales-weighted, +0.65¢/oz, p = 0.003), with +1.09¢/oz (p < 0.001) for sodas and energy drinks, but a lower change in other categories. Post-tax year 1 scanner data SSB sales (ounces/transaction) in Berkeley stores declined 9.6% (p < 0.001) compared to estimates if the tax were not in place, but rose 6.9% (p < 0.001) for non-Berkeley stores. Sales of untaxed beverages in Berkeley stores rose by 3.5% versus 0.5% (both p < 0.001) for non-Berkeley stores. Overall beverage sales also rose across stores. In Berkeley, sales of water rose by 15.6% (p < 0.001) (exceeding the decline in SSB sales in ounces); untaxed fruit, vegetable, and tea drinks, by 4.37% (p < 0.001); and plain milk, by 0.63% (p = 0.01). Scanner data mean store revenue/consumer spending (dollars per transaction) fell 18¢ less in Berkeley (-$0.36, p < 0.001) than in comparison stores (-$0.54, p < 0.001). Baseline and post-tax Berkeley SSB sales and usual dietary intake were markedly low compared to national levels (at baseline, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey SSB intake nationally was 131 kcal/d and in Berkeley was 45 kcal/d). Reductions in self-reported mean daily SSB intake in grams (-19.8%, p = 0.49) and in mean per capita SSB caloric intake (-13.3%, p = 0.56) from baseline to post-tax were not statistically significant. Limitations of the study include inability to establish causal links due to observational design, and the absence of health outcomes. Analysis of consumption was limited by the small effect size in relation to high standard error and Berkeley's low baseline consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

One year following implementation of the nation's first large SSB tax, prices of SSBs increased in many, but not all, settings, SSB sales declined, and sales of untaxed beverages (especially water) and overall study beverages rose in Berkeley; overall consumer spending per transaction in the stores studied did not rise. Price increases for SSBs in two distinct data sources, their timing, and the patterns of change in taxed and untaxed beverage sales suggest that the observed changes may be attributable to the tax. Post-tax self-reported SSB intake did not change significantly compared to baseline. Significant declines in SSB sales, even in this relatively affluent community, accompanied by revenue used for prevention suggest promise for this policy. Evaluation of taxation in jurisdictions with more typical SSB consumption, with controls, is needed to assess broader dietary and potential health impacts.

Obesity in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Burden, Drivers, and Emerging Challenges

We have reviewed the distinctive features of excess weight, its causes, and related prevention and management efforts, as well as data gaps and recommendations for future research in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Obesity is rising in every region of the world, and no country has been successful at reversing the epidemic once it has begun. In LMICs, overweight is higher in women compared with men, in urban compared with rural settings, and in older compared with younger individuals; however, the urban–rural overweight differential is shrinking in many countries. Overweight occurs alongside persistent burdens of underweight in LMICs, especially in young women. Changes in the global diet and physical activity are among the hypothesized leading contributors to obesity. Emerging risk factors include environmental contaminants, chronic psychosocial stress, neuroendocrine dysregulation, and genetic/epigenetic mechanisms. Data on effective strategies to prevent the onset of obesity in LMICs or elsewhere are limited. Expanding the research in this area is a key priority and has important possibilities for reverse innovation that may also inform interventions in high-income countries.

Appetite self-regulation: Environmental and policy influences on eating behaviors

OBJECTIVE

Appetite regulation is influenced by the environment, and the environment is shaped by food-related policies. This review summarizes the environment and policy research portion of an NIH Workshop (Bethesda, MD, 2015) titled "Self-Regulation of Appetite-It's Complicated."

METHODS

In this paper, we begin by making the case for why policy is an important tool in efforts to improve nutrition, and we introduce an ecological framework that illustrates the multiple layers that influence what people eat. We describe the state of the science on how policies influence behavior in several key areas: the federal food programs, schools, child care, food and beverage pricing, marketing to youth, behavioral economics, and changing defaults. Next, we propose novel approaches for multidisciplinary prevention and intervention strategies to promote breastfeeding, and examine interactions between psychology and the environment.

RESULTS

Policy and environmental change are the most distal influences on individual-level appetite regulation, yet these strategies can reach many people at once by changing the environment in which food choices are made. We note the need for more research to understand compensatory behavior, reactance, and how to effectively change social norms.

CONCLUSIONS

To move forward, we need a more sophisticated understanding of how individual psychological and biological factors interact with the environment and policy influences.

Price elasticity of the demand for soft drinks, other sugar-sweetened beverages and energy dense food in Chile

Background

Chile is the second world’s largest per capita consumer of caloric beverages. Caloric beverages are associated with overweight, obesity and other chronic diseases. The objective of this study is to estimate the price elasticity of demand for soft drinks, other sugar-sweetened beverages and high-energy dense foods in urban areas in Chile in order to evaluate the potential response of households’ consumption to changes in prices.

Methods

We used microdata from the VII Family Budget Survey 2012–2013, which collects information on expenditures made by Chilean urban households on items such as beverages and foods. We estimated a Linear Approximation of an Almost Ideal Demand System Model to derive own and cross price elasticities of milk, coffee, tea and other infusions, plain water, soft drinks, other flavored beverages, sweet snacks, sugar and honey, and desserts. We considered the censored nature of the data and included the Inverse Mills Ratio in each equation of the demand system. We estimated a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System and a two-part model as sensitivity analysis.

Results

We found an own price-elasticity of −1.37 for soft drinks. This implies that a price increase of 10% is associated with a reduction in consumption of 13.7%. We found that the rest of food and beverages included in the demand system behave as substitutes for soft drinks. For instance, plain water showed a cross-price elasticity of 0.63: a 10% increase in price of soft drinks could lead to an increase of 6.3% of plain water. Own and cross price elasticities were similar between models.

Conclusions

The demand of soft drinks is price sensitive among Chilean households. An incentive system such as subsidies to non-sweetened beverages and tax to soft drinks could lead to increases in the substitutions for other healthier beverages.

Health-Related Behaviors by Urban-Rural County Classification - United States, 2013

Problem/Condition

Persons living in rural areas are recognized as a health disparity population because the prevalence of disease and rate of premature death are higher than for the overall population of the United States. Surveillance data about health-related behaviors are rarely reported by urban-rural status, which makes comparisons difficult among persons living in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.

Reporting Period

2013.

Description of System

The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is an ongoing, state-based, random-digit-dialed landline- and cellular-telephone survey of noninstitutionalized adults aged ≥18 years residing in the United States. BRFSS collects data on health-risk behaviors, chronic diseases and conditions, access to health care, and use of preventive health services related to the leading causes of death and disability. BRFSS data were analyzed for 398,208 adults aged ≥18 years to estimate the prevalence of five self-reported health-related behaviors (sufficient sleep, current nonsmoking, nondrinking or moderate drinking, maintaining normal body weight, and meeting aerobic leisure time physical activity recommendations) by urban-rural status. For this report, rural is defined as the noncore counties described in the 2013 National Center for Health Statistics Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties.

Results

Approximately one third of U.S. adults practice at least four of these five behaviors. Compared with adults living in the four types of metropolitan counties (large central metropolitan, large fringe metropolitan, medium metropolitan, and small metropolitan), adults living in the two types of nonmetropolitan counties (micropolitan and noncore) did not differ in the prevalence of sufficient sleep; had higher prevalence of nondrinking or moderate drinking; and had lower prevalence of current nonsmoking, maintaining normal body weight, and meeting aerobic leisure time physical activity recommendations. The overall age-adjusted prevalence of reporting at least four of the five health-related behaviors was 30.4%. The prevalence among the estimated 13.3 million adults living in noncore counties was lower (27.0%) than among those in micropolitan counties (28.8%), small metropolitan counties (29.5%), medium metropolitan counties (30.5%), large fringe metropolitan counties (30.2%), and large metropolitan centers (31.7%).

Interpretation

This is the first report of the prevalence of these five health-related behaviors for the six urban-rural categories. Nonmetropolitan counties have lower prevalence of three and clustering of at least four health-related behaviors that are associated with the leading chronic disease causes of death. Prevalence of sufficient sleep was consistently low and did not differ by urban-rural status.

Public Health Action

Chronic disease prevention efforts focus on improving the communities, schools, worksites, and health systems in which persons live, learn, work, and play. Evidence-based strategies to improve health-related behaviors in the population of the United States can be used to reach the Healthy People 2020 objectives for these five self-reported health-related behaviors (sufficient sleep, current nonsmoking, nondrinking or moderate drinking, maintaining normal body weight, and meeting aerobic leisure time physical activity recommendations). These findings suggest an ongoing need to increase public awareness and public education, particularly in rural counties where prevalence of these health-related behaviors is lowest.

Three Interventions That Reduce Childhood Obesity Are Projected To Save More Than They Cost To Implement

Policy makers seeking to reduce childhood obesity must prioritize investment in treatment and primary prevention. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of seven interventions high on the obesity policy agenda: a sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax; elimination of the tax subsidy for advertising unhealthy food to children; restaurant menu calorie labeling; nutrition standards for school meals; nutrition standards for all other food and beverages sold in schools; improved early care and education; and increased access to adolescent bariatric surgery. We used systematic reviews and a microsimulation model of national implementation of the interventions over the period 2015-25 to estimate their impact on obesity prevalence and their cost-effectiveness for reducing the body mass index of individuals. In our model, three of the seven interventions--excise tax, elimination of the tax deduction, and nutrition standards for food and beverages sold in schools outside of meals--saved more in health care costs than they cost to implement. Each of the three interventions prevented 129,000-576,000 cases of childhood obesity in 2025. Adolescent bariatric surgery had a negligible impact on obesity prevalence. Our results highlight the importance of primary prevention for policy makers aiming to reduce childhood obesity.

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages: impact on overweight and obesity in Germany

BACKGROUND

Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) increases the risk of overweight and obesity. Taxing SSBs could decrease daily energy consumption and body weight. This model-based study evaluated the impact of a 20% SSB-sales tax on overweight and obesity in the context of Germany.

METHODS

The population aged 15-79 years was modelled. Taxation was assumed to affect energy consumption via demand elasticities, which affected weight and BMI. Model-based analysis was performed to estimate the tax impact on BMI in different age, gender and income groups.

RESULTS

Implementing a 20% SSB tax reduced energy consumption mainly in younger age groups, males, and those with low income. Taxation decreased the mean BMI in younger groups, with the largest decrease in those aged 20-29 years, while effects in groups 60 years or above were minimal. In absolute terms, taxation was estimated to avoid 1,028,000 (-3% relative reduction) overweight individuals and 479,000 obese individuals (-4%). Overweight decreased the most in males aged 20-29 years (408,000 fewer cases /-22%), the same applied for obesity (204,000/-22%).

CONCLUSIONS

An SSB tax could have significant impact on overweight and obesity, which could translate into substantial reductions of morbidity and mortality.

Efficiency or equity? Simulating the impact of high-risk and population intervention strategies for the prevention of disease

Maximizing both efficiency and equity are core considerations for population health. These considerations can result in tension in population health science as we seek to improve overall population health while achieving equitable health distributions within populations. Limited work has explored empirically the consequences of different population health intervention strategies on the burden of disease and on within- and between-group differences in disease. To address this gap, we compared the impact of four simulated interventions using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. In particular, we focus on assessing how population and high-risk primary prevention and population and high-risk secondary interventions efforts to reduce smoking behavior influence systolic blood pressure (SBP) and hypertension, and how such strategies influence inequalities in SBP by income. The greatest reductions in SBP mean and standard deviation resulted from the population secondary prevention. High-risk primary and secondary prevention and population secondary prevention programs all yielded substantial reductions in hypertension prevalence. The effect of population primary prevention did little to decrease population SBP mean and standard deviation, as well as hypertension prevalence. Both high-risk strategies had a larger impact in the low-income population, leading to the greatest narrowing the income-related gap in disease. The population prevention strategies had a larger impact in the high-income population. Population health approaches must consider the potential impact on both the whole population and also on those with different levels of risk for disease within a population, including those in under-represented or under-served groups.

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A central goal in population health is to maximize overall population health, while minimizing health inequalities within populations.

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A greater understanding of these potential trade-offs can be gained through simulations and sensitivity analyses.

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This study sought to understand the implications of four different strategies on the population prevalence and distribution of high systolic blood pressure.

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The greatest reduction in SBP mean and standard deviation resulted from the population secondary prevention, while high-risk primary and secondary prevention and population secondary prevention all yielded substantial reductions hypertension.

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Efforts to improve overall population health may disadvantage some groups; whether equity or efficiency is preferable is in part a matter of values.

Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and fruit juice and incidence of type 2 diabetes: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimation of population attributable fraction

Objectives

To examine the prospective associations between consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and fruit juice with type 2 diabetes before and after adjustment for adiposity, and to estimate the population attributable fraction for type 2 diabetes from consumption of sugar sweetened beverages in the United States and United Kingdom.

Design

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Data sources and eligibility

PubMed, Embase, Ovid, and Web of Knowledge for prospective studies of adults without diabetes, published until February 2014. The population attributable fraction was estimated in national surveys in the USA, 2009–10 (n=4729 representing 189.1 million adults without diabetes) and the UK, 2008–12 (n=1932 representing 44.7 million).

Synthesis methods

Random effects meta-analysis and survey analysis for population attributable fraction associated with consumption of sugar sweetened beverages.

Results

Prespecified information was extracted from 17 cohorts (38 253 cases/10 126 754 person years). Higher consumption of sugar sweetened beverages was associated with a greater incidence of type 2 diabetes, by 18% per one serving/day (95% confidence interval 9% to 28%, I² for heterogeneity=89%) and 13% (6% to 21%, I²=79%) before and after adjustment for adiposity; for artificially sweetened beverages, 25% (18% to 33%, I²=70%) and 8% (2% to 15%, I²=64%); and for fruit juice, 5% (−1% to 11%, I²=58%) and 7% (1% to 14%, I²=51%). Potential sources of heterogeneity or bias were not evident for sugar sweetened beverages. For artificially sweetened beverages, publication bias and residual confounding were indicated. For fruit juice the finding was non-significant in studies ascertaining type 2 diabetes objectively (P for heterogeneity=0.008). Under specified assumptions for population attributable fraction, of 20.9 million events of type 2 diabetes predicted to occur over 10 years in the USA (absolute event rate 11.0%), 1.8 million would be attributable to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (population attributable fraction 8.7%, 95% confidence interval 3.9% to 12.9%); and of 2.6 million events in the UK (absolute event rate 5.8%), 79 000 would be attributable to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (population attributable fraction 3.6%, 1.7% to 5.6%).

Conclusions

Habitual consumption of sugar sweetened beverages was associated with a greater incidence of type 2 diabetes, independently of adiposity. Although artificially sweetened beverages and fruit juice also showd positive associations with incidence of type 2 diabetes, the findings were likely to involve bias. None the less, both artificially sweetened beverages and fruit juice were unlikely to be healthy alternatives to sugar sweetened beverages for the prevention of type 2 diabetes. Under assumption of causality, consumption of sugar sweetened beverages over years may be related to a substantial number of cases of new onset diabetes.

Effects of Taxing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Caries and Treatment Costs

Caries increment is affected by sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption. Taxing SSBs could reduce sugar consumption and caries increment. The authors aimed to estimate the impact of a 20% SSB sales tax on caries increment and associated treatment costs (as well as the resulting tax revenue) in the context of Germany. A model-based approach was taken, estimating the effects for the German population aged 14 to 79 y over a 10-y period. Taxation was assumed to affect beverage-associated sugar consumption via empirical demand elasticities. Altered consumption affected caries increments and treatment costs, with cost estimates being calculated under the perspective of the statutory health insurance. National representative consumption and price data were used to estimate tax revenue. Microsimulations were performed to estimate health outcomes, costs, and revenue impact in different age, sex, and income groups. Implementing a 20% SSB sales tax reduced sugar consumption in nearly all male groups but in fewer female groups. The reduction was larger among younger than older individuals and among those with low income. Taxation reduced caries increment and treatment costs especially in younger (rather than older) individuals and those with low income. Over 10 y, mean (SD) net caries increments at the population level were 82.27 (1.15) million and 83.02 (1.08) million teeth at 20% and 0% SSB tax, respectively. These generated treatment costs of 2.64 (0.39) billion and 2.72 (0.35) billion euro, respectively. Additional tax revenue was 37.99 (3.41) billion euro over the 10 y. In conclusion and within the limitations of this study's perspective, database, and underlying assumptions, implementing a 20% sales tax on SSBs is likely to reduce caries increment, especially in young low-income males, thereby also reducing inequalities in the distribution of caries experience. Taxation would also reduce treatment costs. However, these reductions might be limited in the total population.

Impact of the Berkeley Excise Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the impact of the excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption in Berkeley, California, which became the first US jurisdiction to implement such a tax ($0.01/oz) in March 2015.

METHODS

We used a repeated cross-sectional design to examine changes in pre- to posttax beverage consumption in low-income neighborhoods in Berkeley versus in the comparison cities of Oakland and San Francisco, California. A beverage frequency questionnaire was interviewer administered to 990 participants before the tax and 1689 after the tax (approximately 8 months after the vote and 4 months after implementation) to examine relative changes in consumption.

RESULTS

Consumption of SSBs decreased 21% in Berkeley and increased 4% in comparison cities (P = .046). Water consumption increased more in Berkeley (+63%) than in comparison cities (+19%; P < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

Berkeley's excise tax reduced SSB consumption in low-income neighborhoods. Evaluating SSB taxes in other cities will improve understanding of their public health benefit and their generalizability.