Sibling comparison designs: bias from non-shared confounders and measurement error

Long-term Health and Social Outcomes in Children and Adolescents Placed in Out-of-Home Care

IMPORTANCE

Children who are placed in out-of-home care may have poorer outcomes in adulthood, on average, compared with their peers, but the direction and magnitude of these associations need clarification.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate associations between being placed in out-of-home care in childhood and adolescence and subsequent risks of experiencing a wide range of social and health outcomes in adulthood following comprehensive adjustments for preplacement factors.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort and cosibling study of all children born in Finland between 1986 and 2000 (N = 855 622) monitored each person from their 15th birthday either until the end of the study period (December 2018) or until they migrated, died, or experienced the outcome of interest. Cox and Poisson regression models were used to estimate associations with adjustment for measured confounders (from linked population registers) and unmeasured familial confounders (using sibling comparisons). Data were analyzed from October 2020 to August 2021.

EXPOSURES

Placement in out-of-home care up to age 15 years.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Through national population, patient, prescription drug, cause of death, and crime registers, 16 specific outcomes were identified across the following categories: psychiatric disorders; low socioeconomic status; injuries and experiencing violence; and antisocial behaviors, suicidality, and premature mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 30 127 individuals (3.4%) were identified who had been placed in out-of-home care for a median (interquartile range) period of 1.3 (0.2-5.1) years and 2 (1-3) placement episodes before age 15 years. Compared with their siblings, individuals who had been placed in out-of-home care were 1.4 to 5 times more likely to experience adverse outcomes in adulthood (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] for those with a fall-related injury, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.25-1.57 and aHR for those with an unintentional poisoning injury, 4.79; 95% CI, 3.56-6.43, respectively). The highest relative risks were observed for those with violent crime arrests (aHR, 4.16; 95% CI, 3.74-4.62; cumulative incidence, 24.6% in individuals who had been placed in out-of-home care vs 5.1% in those who had not), substance misuse (aHR, 4.75; 95% CI, 4.25-5.30; cumulative incidence, 23.2% vs 4.6%), and unintentional poisoning injury (aHR 4.79; 95% CI, 3.56-6.43; cumulative incidence, 3.1% vs 0.6%). Additional adjustments for perinatal factors, childhood behavioral problems, and traumatic injuries, including experiencing violence, did not materially change the findings.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Out-of-home care placement was associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes in adulthood, which persisted following adjustments for measured preplacement factors and unmeasured familial factors.

Association of severe childhood infections with depression and intentional self-harm in adolescents and young adults

Early-life infections have been linked with subsequent depression and self-harm. Examination of specific groups of infections and the role of familial factors may elucidate this observed relationship. We addressed these considerations in our investigations of the association of severe childhood infections with the risks of depression and self-harm in adolescence and early-adulthood. This population-based cohort study included all individuals born in Sweden between 1982 and 1996, with follow-up through 2013 (N = 1,506,070). Severe childhood infections were identified using inpatient and outpatient diagnoses from birth through age 12. Any infection as well as specific groups of infections were investigated. We examined diagnoses of depression and self-harm within inpatient and outpatient care and death by self-harm between ages 13 and 31. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate absolute risks, hazard ratios (HRs), and 95% CIs. When adjusting for sex and birth year, individuals exposed to any childhood infection demonstrated increased absolute risk differences for both outcomes (2.42% [95% CI, 0.41-4.43%] of being diagnosed with depression up until age 31, and 0.73% [-2.05% to 3.51%] of self-harm up until age 31) and increased relative risks (HR, 1.22 [1.20-1.24] for depression and HR, 1.29 [1.25-1.32] for self-harm). When controlling for unmeasured factors shared between family members by comparing discordant siblings, no strong association persisted. Our findings show that childhood infections may not be involved in the etiology of later depression and self-harm, and highlight the importance of identifying these genetic and environmental familial risk factors, which may serve as targets for interventions.

Maternal Anxiety and Infants Birthweight and Length of Gestation. A sibling design

BACKGROUND

The overall aim of this study is to examine the effect of prenatal maternal anxiety on birthweight and gestational age, controlling for shared family confounding using a sibling comparison design.

METHODS

The data on 77,970 mothers and their 91,165 children from the population-based Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study and data on 12,480 pairs of siblings were used in this study. The mothers filled out questionnaires for each unique pregnancy, at 17^th and 30^th week in pregnancy. Gestational age and birth weight was extracted from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway (MBRN). Associations between prenatal maternal anxiety (measured across the 17^th and 30^th weeks) and birth outcomes (birthweight and gestational age) were examined using linear regression with adjustment for shared-family confounding in a sibling comparison design.

RESULTS

In the population level analysis the maternal anxiety score during pregnancy was inversely associated with new-born's birthweight (Beta = -63.8 95% CI: -92.6, -35.0) and gestational age (Beta = -1.52, 95% CI: -2.15, -0.89) after adjustment for several covariates. The association of the maternal anxiety score with birthweight was no longer significant, but remained for maternal anxiety at 30^th week with gestational age (Beta = -1.11, 95% CI: -1.82, -0.4) after further adjusting for the shared-family confounding in the sibling comparison design.

CONCLUSION

No association was found for maternal prenatal anxiety with birth weight after multiple covariates and family environment were controlled. However, there was an association between prenatal maternal anxiety at 30^th week only with gestational age, suggesting a timing effect for maternal anxiety in third trimester.

Coronary heart disease in mothers and fathers of adult children with alcohol use disorders

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Having a family member with an alcohol use disorder (AUD) may negatively affect a person's health. Our aim was to study the long-term risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in parents who have an offspring with AUD.

DESIGN

Cohort study with Cox regression models and co-sibling analyses.

SETTING

Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS

From population registers, we selected all parent-offspring pairs in which the parent was born in Sweden between 1945 and 1965.

MEASUREMENTS

Baseline was set when the offspring was 15 years old and AUD was assessed from medical and criminal registers. The parents were followed for CHD during a mean follow-up of 18 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) in mothers and fathers were calculated and adjusted for potential confounders (year of birth, age at childbirth, sex of the child, parent' AUD, educational level, and marital status).

FINDINGS

In mothers, the adjusted HR for CHD was 1.24 (95% CI = 1.19-1.28) in relation to having a child with AUD. In fathers, the HR for CHD was lower than in mothers but still increased; the adjusted HR was 1.08 (95% CI = 1.05-1.12). In the co-sibling analyses, the HRs for mothers were similar to the HRs estimated from the population-based sample, but in fathers the association did not remain significant (HR = 0.98 [0.90-1.06]).

CONCLUSIONS

In Sweden, there appears to be an association between having an offspring with alcohol use disorder and increased risk of developing coronary heart disease. For fathers, the association did not remain in co-sibling analyses.

Familial confounding affected the associations between maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring speech and language, scholastic and coordination disorders

AIM

This study examined the associations between prenatal smoking and speech and language, scholastic, coordination and mixed developmental disorders in offspring, using sibling and population controls.

METHODS

National Finnish registers were used to identify all 690 654 singletons born between 1996 and 2007 and any cases diagnosed with speech and language, scholastic, coordination and mixed developmental disorders by the end of 2012. Cases were compared to population controls, biological full-siblings and maternal half-siblings born during the same period. Conditional logistic regression was used to assess any associations between smoking during pregnancy and the selected developmental disorders.

RESULTS

Prenatal smoking was higher in the mothers of the 27 297 cases (21.7%) than the 99 876 population controls (14.5%). The adjusted odds ratio for smoking throughout pregnancy, and any diagnosis of speech and language, scholastic, coordination or mixed developmental disorders, was 1.29 (95% confidence interval 1.24-1.34). However, when we compared a subsample of 15 406 cases and their 20 657 siblings, the association was no longer statistically significant (odds ratio 1.09, 95% confidence interval 0.98-1.21).

CONCLUSION

The sibling comparisons suggested that the associations between prenatal smoking and speech and language, scholastic, coordination and mixed developmental disorders were confounded by familial factors shared by differentially exposed siblings.

Evidence for causal associations between prenatal and postnatal antibiotic exposure and asthma in children, England

BACKGROUND

Higher risks of asthma have been observed in children with prenatal exposure to antibiotics and during early life compared with those who have not. However, the causality of such associations is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether exposure to antibiotics in early life had a causal effect in increasing the risk of asthma in children diagnosed at 5-8 years of life, and the impact in the target population.

METHODS

Data were from electronic health records and questionnaires for children and their mothers in the Born in Bradford birth cohort. Exposure variables were prescriptions of systemic antibiotics to the mother during pregnancy (prenatal) and to the children at 0-24 months of life (postnatal). We assessed the association in 12,476 children with several approaches to deal with different sources of bias (triangulation): the interactions with mother's ethnicity, mode of delivery, and between prenatal and postnatal exposures; dose-response; and estimated the population attributable risk.

RESULTS

There was an association between prenatal exposure at 7-27 days before the child's birth and asthma (adjusted OR = 1.40; 1.05, 1.87), but no association with the negative control exposure (before pregnancy) (adjusted OR = 0.99 (0.88, 1.12)). For postnatal exposure, the adjusted OR was 2.00 (1.71, 2.34), and for sibling analysis, it was 1.99 (1.00, 3.93). For postnatal exposure, the risk of asthma increased with the number of prescriptions. The observed effect of both exposures was lower among children with mothers of Pakistani ethnicity, but inconclusive (p > .25). The interaction between prenatal and postnatal exposures was also inconclusive (p = .287). The population attributable risk of postnatal exposure for asthma was 4.6% (0.1% for prenatal).

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that the associations between both late-pregnancy prenatal exposure to antibiotics and postnatal exposure to antibiotics and an increased risk of asthma are plausible and consistent with a causal effect.

Association of maternal diabetes during pregnancy with high refractive error in offspring: a nationwide population-based cohort study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We aimed to investigate the associations between maternal diabetes before or during pregnancy and the risk of high refractive error (RE) in offspring until the age of 25 years.

METHODS

This nationwide register-based cohort study comprised 2,470,580 individuals born in 1977-2016. The exposure was maternal diabetes during or before pregnancy (type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes). Cox regression was used to examine the association between maternal diabetes and the risk of high RE in offspring from birth until the age of 25 years, adjusting for multiple potential confounders.

RESULTS

During up to 25 years of follow-up, 553 offspring of mothers with diabetes and 19,695 offspring of mothers without diabetes were diagnosed with high RE. Prenatal exposure to maternal diabetes was associated with a 39% increased risk of high RE: HR 1.39 (95% CI 1.28, 1.51), p < 0.001; standardised cumulative incidence in unexposed offspring at 25 years of age 1.18% (95% CI 1.16%, 1.19%); cumulative incidence difference 0.72% (95% CI 0.51%, 0.94%). The elevated risks were observed for hypermetropia (HR 1.37 [95% CI 1.24, 1.51], p < 0.001), myopia (HR 1.34 [95% CI 1.08, 1.66], p = 0.007) and astigmatism (HR 1.58 [95% CI 1.29, 1.92], p < 0.001). The increased risks were more pronounced among offspring of mothers with diabetic complications (HR 2.05 [95% CI 1.60, 2.64], p < 0.001), compared with those of mothers with diabetes but no diabetic complications (HR 1.18 [95% CI 1.02, 1.37], p = 0.030).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that maternal diabetes during pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of high RE in offspring, in particular among those of mothers with diabetic complications. Early ophthalmological screening should be recommended in offspring of mothers with diabetes diagnosed before or during pregnancy.

Cyber-victimisation and mental health in young people: a co-twin control study

BACKGROUND

The rise of social media use in young people has sparked concern about the impact of cyber-victimisation on mental health. Although cyber-victimisation is associated with mental health problems, it is not known whether such associations reflect genetic and environmental confounding.

METHODS

We used the co-twin control design to test the direct association between cyber-victimisation and multiple domains of mental health in young people. Participants were 7708 twins drawn from the Twins Early Development Study, a UK-based population cohort followed from birth to age 22.

RESULTS

Monozygotic twins exposed to greater levels of cyber-victimisation had more symptoms of internalising, externalising and psychotic disorders than their less victimised co-twins at age 22, even after accounting for face-to-face peer victimisation and prior mental health. However, effect sizes from the most stringent monozygotic co-twin control analyses were decreased by two thirds from associations at the individual level [pooled β across all mental health problems = 0.06 (95% CI 0.03-0.10) v. 0.17 (95% CI 0.15-0.19) in individual-level analyses].

CONCLUSIONS

Cyber-victimisation has a small direct association with multiple mental health problems in young people. However, a large part of the association between cyber-victimisation and mental health is due to pre-existing genetic and environmental vulnerabilities and co-occurring face-to-face victimisation. Therefore, preventative interventions should target cyber-victimisation in conjunction with pre-existing mental health vulnerabilities and other forms of victimisation.

Toward more rigorous and informative nutritional epidemiology: The rational space between dismissal and defense of the status quo

To date, nutritional epidemiology has relied heavily on relatively weak methods including simple observational designs and substandard measurements. Despite low internal validity and other sources of bias, claims of causality are made commonly in this literature. Nutritional epidemiology investigations can be improved through greater scientific rigor and adherence to scientific reporting commensurate with research methods used. Some commentators advocate jettisoning nutritional epidemiology entirely, perhaps believing improvements are impossible. Still others support only normative refinements. But neither abolition nor minor tweaks are appropriate. Nutritional epidemiology, in its present state, offers utility, yet also needs marked, reformational renovation. Changing the status quo will require ongoing, unflinching scrutiny of research questions, practices, and reporting-and a willingness to admit that "good enough" is no longer good enough. As such, a workshop entitled "Toward more rigorous and informative nutritional epidemiology: the rational space between dismissal and defense of the status quo" was held from July 15 to August 14, 2020. This virtual symposium focused on: (1) Stronger Designs, (2) Stronger Measurement, (3) Stronger Analyses, and (4) Stronger Execution and Reporting. Participants from several leading academic institutions explored existing, evolving, and new better practices, tools, and techniques to collaboratively advance specific recommendations for strengthening nutritional epidemiology.

Association of Prenatal Maternal Anemia with Tics and Tourette's Syndrome in Offspring

Iron deficiency anemia (IDA) accounts for most of the anemia in pregnancy, and iron is essential for neurodevelopment. Tics and Tourette’s syndrome (TS) are neurodevelopmental disorders that manifest in childhood. A few studies reported an inconclusive association between iron deficiency and tics in children. No study has investigated the relationship between prenatal maternal anemia and tics in children. We aimed to assess the relationship between prenatal anemia exposure and the incidence of tics or TS in offspring. We linked the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database to the Maternal and Child Health Database for the analysis and identified 153,854 children with prenatal anemia exposure and 2,014,619 children without prenatal anemia exposure from 2004 to 2016 and followed them through 2017. Cox regression models were applied to compare the risk of tics or TS between the exposed and nonexposed groups. Among the exposed group, 37,832 were exposed at ≤12 weeks of gestational age (GA) and 116,022 at >12 weeks of GA. We observed an increased risk of tics and TS in those exposed at ≤12 weeks compared with the nonexposed group (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12–1.34). The result remained consistent after adjusting for birth year, sex, birth order, maternal age, low-income levels, gestational age, birth weight, and alcohol use and smoking during pregnancy (aHR = 1.16, CI: 1.04–1.28). Fetuses exposed to maternal anemia at ≤12 weeks of GA are at high risk of tics or TS. However, this effect was attenuated to insignificance in the sibling comparison. Our study highlights the importance of detection of anemia during pregnancy and proper timing of iron supplementation.

Relationship Between Magnetic Resonance Imaging Features and Knee Pain Over Six Years in Knees Without Radiographic Osteoarthritis at Baseline

Objective

To explore whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features suggestive of knee osteoarthritis (OA) are associated with presence of knee pain in possible early‐stage OA development.

Methods

We included 294 participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (mean ± SD age 50 ± 3 years; 50% women) with baseline Kellgren/Lawrence grade of 0 in both knees, all of whom had received knee MRIs at 4 different time points over 6 years (baseline, 24, 48, and 72 months). Using a linear mixed model (knees matched within individuals), we studied whether MRI features (meniscal body extrusion [in mm], cartilage area loss [score 0–39], cartilage full thickness loss [range 0–16], osteophytes [range 0–29], meniscal integrity [range 0–10], bone marrow lesions [BMLs] including bone marrow cysts [range 0–20], Hoffa‐ or effusion‐synovitis [absent/present], and popliteal cysts [absent/present]) were associated with knee‐specific pain as reported on the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) questionnaire using a 0–100 scale (worst to best).

Results

The differences in KOOS knee pain score for a knee with a 1 unit higher score on MRI were the following: meniscal extrusion –1.52 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] –2.35, –0.69); cartilage area loss –0.23 (95% CI –0.48, 0.02); cartilage full thickness loss –1.04 (95% CI –1.58, –0.50); osteophytes –0.32 (95% CI –0.61, –0.03); meniscal integrity –0.28 (95% CI –0.58, 0.02); BMLs including potential cysts –0.19 (95% CI –0.55, 0.16); synovitis 0.23 (95% CI –1.14, 1.60); and popliteal cysts 0.86 (95% CI –0.56, 2.29).

Conclusion

Meniscal extrusion, full thickness cartilage loss, and osteophytes are associated with having more knee pain. Although these features may be relevant targets for future trials, the clinical relevance of our findings is unclear because no feature was associated with a clinically important difference in knee pain.

Birth outcomes following unexpected job loss: a matched-sibling design

BACKGROUND

Research documents social and economic antecedents of adverse birth outcomes, which may include involuntary job loss. Previous work on job loss and adverse birth outcomes, however, lacks high-quality individual data on, and variation in, plausibly exogenous job loss during pregnancy and therefore cannot rule out strong confounding.

METHODS

We analysed unique linked registries in Denmark, from 1980 to 2017, to examine whether a father's involuntary job loss during his spouse's pregnancy increases the risk of a low-weight (i.e. <2500 grams) and/or preterm (i.e. <37 weeks of gestational age) birth. We applied a matched-sibling design to 743 574 sibling pairs.

RESULTS

Results indicate an increased risk of a low-weight birth among infants exposed in utero to fathers' unexpected job loss [odds ratio (OR) = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07, 1.75]. Sex-specific analyses show that this result holds for males (OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.14, 2.53) but not females (OR = 1.24, 95% CI: 0.80, 1.91). We find no relation with preterm birth.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings support the inference that a father's unexpected job loss adversely affects the course of pregnancy, especially among males exposed in utero.

Accounting for Confounding in Observational Studies

The goal of this review is to enable clinical psychology researchers to more rigorously test competing hypotheses when studying risk factors in observational studies. We argue that there is a critical need for researchers to leverage recent advances in epidemiology/biostatistics related to causal inference and to use innovative approaches to address a key limitation of observational research: the need to account for confounding. We first review theoretical issues related to the study of causation, how causal diagrams can facilitate the identification and testing of competing hypotheses, and the current limitations of observational research in the field. We then describe two broad approaches that help account for confounding: analytic approaches that account for measured traits and designs that account for unmeasured factors. We provide descriptions of several such approaches and highlight their strengths and limitations, particularly as they relate to the etiology and treatment of behavioral health problems.

The relationship between body mass index and income: Using genetic variants from HUNT as instrumental variables

Several studies have estimated effects of body mass index (BMI) on labour market outcomes, and these studies have mixed findings. A significant challenge has been to adequately control for omitted variables, selection, reverse causality, and measurement error. We examine the impact of BMI on income using genetic variants as instrumental variables for BMI. Individual-level pre-tax income from tax records was merged with health survey data containing measured height and weight, and data on genetic variants. The analyses were stratified by sex and a variety of methods were used to explore the sensitivity and validity of the instrumental variable (IV) strategy. For females we found that BMI had a negative effect on the logarithm of income. The effect estimated from the IV models (-0.02) was larger than the effect estimated from naïve ordinary least squares regressions (-0.01). For males, the coefficients for the effect of BMI on income were imprecise, and both positive and negative coefficients were estimated depending on the estimation method. Our results suggest that females are susceptible to reduced income levels following increased BMI.

Prenatal Vitamins and the Risk of Offspring Autism Spectrum Disorder: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Prenatal nutrition is associated with offspring autism spectrum disorder (herein referred to as autism), yet, it remains unknown if the association is causal. Triangulation may improve causal inference by integrating the results of conventional multivariate regression with several alternative approaches that have unrelated sources of bias. We systematically reviewed the literature on the relationship between prenatal multivitamin supplements and offspring autism, and evidence for the causal approaches applied. Six databases were searched up to 8 June 2020, by which time we had screened 1309 titles/abstracts, and retained 12 articles. Quality assessment was guided using Newcastle-Ottawa in individual studies, and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) for the body of evidence. The effect estimates from multivariate regression were meta-analysed in a random effects model and causal approaches were narratively synthesised. The meta-analysis of prenatal multivitamin supplements involved 904,947 children (8159 cases), and in the overall analysis showed no robust association with offspring autism; however, a reduced risk was observed in the subgroup of high-quality observational studies (RR 0.77, 95% CI (0.62, 0.96), I2 = 62.4%), early pregnancy (RR 0.76, 95% CI (0.58; 0.99), I2 = 79.8%) and prospective studies (RR 0.69, 95% CI (0.48, 1.00), I2 = 95.9%). The quality of evidence was very low, and triangulation was of limited utility because alternative methods were used infrequently and often not robustly applied.

Interpregnancy Interval and Subsequent Severe Maternal Morbidity: A 16-Year Population-Based Study From California

Interpregnancy interval (IPI) is associated with adverse perinatal outcomes, but its contribution to severe maternal morbidity (SMM) remains unclear. We examined the association between IPI and SMM, using data linked across sequential pregnancies to women in California during 1997–2012. Adjusting for confounders measured in the index pregnancy (i.e., the first in a pair of consecutive pregnancies), we estimated adjusted risk ratios for SMM related to the subsequent pregnancy. We further conducted within-mother comparisons and analyses stratified by parity and maternal age at the index pregnancy. Compared with an IPI of 18–23 months, an IPI of <6 months had the same risk for SMM in between-mother comparisons (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) = 0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.91, 1.02) but lower risk in within-mother comparisons (aRR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.67, 0.86). IPIs of 24–59 months and ≥60 months were associated with increased risk of SMM in both between-mother (aRR = 1.18 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.23) and aRR = 1.76 (95% CI: 1.68, 1.85), respectively) and within-mother (aRR = 1.22 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.34) and aRR = 1.88 (95% CI: 1.66, 2.13), respectively) comparisons. The association between IPI and SMM did not vary substantially by maternal age or parity. In this study, longer IPI was associated with increased risk of SMM, which may be partly attributed to interpregnancy health.

Association Between Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy and Neurodevelopmental Outcomes Among Offspring

IMPORTANCE

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) have been associated with poorer neurodevelopmental outcomes in offspring, but the role of familial confounding in these associations is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate associations of maternal HDP with risks in offspring of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and intellectual disability (ID), as well as variation in overall cognitive performance in offspring.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This Swedish register-based study used data from a birth cohort divided into 1 085 024 individuals born between 1987 and 1996 and followed up until December 31, 2014, and 285 901 men born between 1982 and 1992 who attended assessments for military conscription, including a cognitive function test. Statistical analysis was performed from April 1, 2019, to June 1, 2020.

EXPOSURES

Diagnoses of HDP, which were provided by the Medical Birth Register.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Diagnoses of ASDs, ADHD, and ID were extracted from the National Patient Register. Cognitive function was assessed using written tests and summarized as a single 9-point score. Whole-cohort and within-sibship analyses were performed; the latter accounted for unmeasured familial confounding factors shared by siblings.

RESULTS

The study included 1 085 024 individuals (556 912 male participants [51.3%]) born between 1987 and 1996 and 285 901 men born between 1982 and 1992 who attended assessments for military conscription. The prevalence of maternal HDP was 4.0% in the 1987-1996 birth cohort (n = 42 980) and 5.1% in the military conscription cohort (n = 14 515). A total of 15 858 participants received a diagnosis of ASD, 36 852 received a diagnosis of ADHD, and 8454 received a diagnosis of ID. The mean (SD) cognitive score among the men in the conscription cohort was 5.1 (1.9). In whole-cohort analyses with multivariable adjustment, HDP were associated with offspring ASDs (hazard ratio [HR], 1.22; 95% CI, 1.13-1.31), ADHD (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.05-1.16), and ID (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.27-1.53). Analyses comparing siblings discordant for HDP were less statistically powered but indicated estimates of similar magnitude for ASDs (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.00-1.42) and possibly ADHD (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.95-1.24), but not for ID (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.83-1.29). Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy were associated with somewhat lower cognitive scores in whole-cohort analysis (mean difference comparing offspring exposed with those unexposed, -0.10; 95% CI, -0.13 to -0.07), but in within-sibship analysis, the association was null (mean difference, 0.00; 95% CI, -0.09 to 0.08).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The study results suggest that HDP are associated with small increased risks of ASDs and possibly ADHD in offspring, whereas associations with ID and cognitive performance are likely confounded by shared familial (environmental or genetic) factors.

Are there causal relationships between attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and body mass index? Evidence from multiple genetically informed designs

BACKGROUND

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and body mass index (BMI) are associated. However, it remains unclear whether this association reflects causal relationships in either direction or confounding. Here, we implemented genetically informed methods to examine bidirectional causality and potential confounding.

METHODS

Three genetically informed methods were employed: (i) cross-lagged twin-differences analyses to assess bidirectional effects of ADHD symptoms and BMI at ages 8, 12, 14 and 16 years in 2386 pairs of monozygotic twins from the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS); (ii) within- and between-family ADHD and BMI polygenic score (PS) analyses in 3320 pairs of dizygotic TEDS twins; and (iii) two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on ADHD (N = 55,374) and BMI (N = 806,834).

RESULTS

Mixed results were obtained across the three methods. Twin-difference analyses provided little support for cross-lagged associations between ADHD symptoms and BMI over time. PS analyses were consistent with bidirectional relationships between ADHD and BMI, with plausible time-varying effects from childhood to adolescence. MR findings also suggested bidirectional causal effects between ADHD and BMI. Multivariable MR indicated the presence of substantial confounding in bidirectional relationships.

CONCLUSIONS

The three methods converged to highlight multiple sources of confounding in the association between ADHD and BMI. PS and MR analyses suggested plausible causal relationships in both directions. Possible explanations for mixed causal findings across methods are discussed.

Maternal smoking and smokeless tobacco use during pregnancy and offspring development: sibling analysis in an intergenerational Swedish cohort

Background

The association between maternal smoking in pregnancy and offspring intellectual disability (ID) is less well understood than that of smoking and fetal growth restriction. As fetal growth and cognitive development may share similar confounding structures, comparison of the two associations may improve understanding of the causal nature of the association with ID. Furthermore, comparisons of smoking with smokeless tobacco use may aid identification of mechanisms of action.

Methods

This was a cohort study of all Swedish births between 1999 and 2012 (n = 1 070 013), with prospectively recorded data. We assessed the association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring outcomes ID and born small for gestational age (SGA). Analyses were repeated for snus use in pregnancy. Using a sibling design, we estimated within-family effects that control for shared sibling characteristics.

Results

Those exposed to maternal smoking in pregnancy had increased odds of ID [odds ratio (OR) = 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-1.33] and SGA (OR = 2.19, 95% CI: 2.11-2.27) after confounder adjustment. Within-family effects were found for SGA (OR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.27-1.63) but not ID (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.74-1.14). For snus use, the results for ID were similar to smoking. We found increased odds of offspring SGA among mothers who used snus in pregnancy in sensitivity analyses but not in primary analyses.

Conclusions

Our findings are consistent with a causal effect of maternal smoking in pregnancy on risk of offspring born SGA but not on risk of ID. We found no evidence for a causal effect of snus use in pregnancy on ID and inconclusive evidence for SGA.

Invited Commentary: Sibling-Comparison Designs, Are They Worth the Effort?

In this issue of the Journal, von Ehrenstein et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2021;190(5):728-737) add to the large and growing literature on the potentially causal association between prenatal exposure to maternal smoking and neuropsychiatric health. In addition to statewide, prospectively collected data, a particular strength was their ability to perform a sibling-comparison design, contrasting the rate of autism spectrum disorder in siblings discordantly exposed to maternal smoking. Unfortunately, the estimate from the sibling pairs could neither confirm nor refute the conclusions based on the full cohort. Interpretation was hampered by broad confidence limits, and even had power been higher, the authors acknowledge a range of potential biases that would have made it difficult to draw any firm conclusions from a similarity or difference in the sibling-pair estimate and estimate from the full cohort. Was the addition of the sibling comparison actually worth the effort? In this commentary, I will briefly summarize the benefits and limitations of this design, and, with some caveats, argue that its inclusion in the study by von Ehrenstein et al. was indeed a strength and not just an ornamentation.

Maternal Prenatal Smoking and Autism Spectrum Disorder in Offspring: A California Statewide Cohort and Sibling Study

We examined associations between maternal smoking and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in children in a statewide population-based cohort and sibling-comparison design using California birth records (n = 2,015,104) with information on maternal smoking, demographic factors, and pregnancy (2007-2010). ASD cases (n = 11,722) were identified through California Department of Developmental Services records with diagnoses based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV-TR. We estimated odds ratios for ASD with and without intellectual disability in the full cohort using logistic regression and in a sibling comparison using conditional logistic regression. In the full cohort, the adjusted odds ratio for ASD and maternal smoking 3 months before/during pregnancy compared with nonsmoking was 1.15 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 1.26), and it was similar in cases with (odds ratio = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.84, 1.49) and without intellectual disability (odds ratio = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.27). Heavy prenatal smoking (≥20 cigarettes/day in any trimester) was related to an odds ratio of 1.55 (95% CI: 1.21, 1.98). In the sibling comparison, the odds ratio for heavy smoking was similarly elevated but the confidence interval was wide. Our findings are consistent with an increased risk for ASD in offspring of mothers who smoked ≥20 cigarettes/day during pregnancy; associations with lighter smoking were weaker.

Nitrate in Drinking Water during Pregnancy and Spontaneous Preterm Birth: A Retrospective Within-Mother Analysis in California

BACKGROUND

Nitrate is a widespread groundwater contaminant and a leading cause of drinking water quality violations in California. Associations between nitrate exposure and select adverse birth outcomes have been suggested, but few studies have examined gestational exposures to nitrate and risk of preterm birth (before 37 wk gestation).

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the association between elevated nitrate in drinking water and spontaneous preterm birth through a within-mother retrospective cohort study of births in California.

METHODS

We acquired over 6 million birth certificate records linked with Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development hospital discharge data for California births from 2000-2011. We used public water system monitoring records to estimate nitrate concentrations in drinking water for each woman's residence during gestation. After exclusions, we constructed a sample of 1,443,318 consecutive sibling births in order to conduct a within-mother analysis. We used separate conditional logistic regression models to estimate the odds of preterm birth at 20-31 and 32-36 wk, respectively, among women whose nitrate exposure changed between consecutive pregnancies.

RESULTS

Spontaneous preterm birth at 20-31 wk was increased in association with tap water nitrate concentrations during pregnancy of 5 to <10mg/L [odds ratio (OR)=1.47; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29, 1.67] and ≥10mg/L (OR=2.52; 95% CI: 1.49, 4.26) compared with <5mg/L (as nitrogen). Corresponding estimates for spontaneous preterm birth at 32-36 wk were positive but close to the null for 5 to <10mg/L nitrate (OR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.15) and for ≥10mg/L nitrate (OR=1.05; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.31) vs. <5mg/L nitrate. Our findings were similar in several secondary and sensitivity analyses, including in a conventional individual-level design.

DISCUSSION

The results suggest that nitrate in drinking water is associated with increased odds of spontaneous preterm birth. Notably, we estimated modestly increased odds associated with tap water nitrate concentrations of 5 to <10mg/L (below the federal drinking water standard of 10mg/L) relative to <5mg/L. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8205.

Gestational weight gain, birthweight and early-childhood obesity: between- and within-family comparisons

BACKGROUND

Associations of excessive gestational weight gain (GWG) with greater birthweight and childhood obesity may be confounded by shared familial environment or genetics. Sibling comparisons can minimize variation in these confounders because siblings grow up in similar environments and share the same genetic predisposition for weight gain.

METHODS

We identified 96 289 women with live births in 2008-2014 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Fifteen percent of women (N = 14 417) had at least two births during the study period for sibling analyses. We assessed associations of GWG according to the Institute of Medicine (IOM) recommendations with birthweight and obesity at age 3 years, using conventional analyses comparing outcomes between mothers and sibling analyses comparing outcomes within mothers, which control for stable within-family unmeasured confounders such as familial environment and genetics. We used generalized estimating-equations and fixed-effects models.

RESULTS

In conventional analyses, GWG above the IOM recommendations was associated with 88% greater odds of large-for-gestational age birthweight [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.80, 1.97] and 30% greater odds of obesity at 3 years old (95% CI: 1.24, 1.37) compared with GWG within the IOM recommendations. In sibling analyses, GWG above the IOM recommendations was also associated with greater odds of large-for-gestational age [odds ratio (OR): 1.36; 95% CI: 1.20, 1.54], but was not associated with obesity at 3 years old (OR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.84, 1.15).

CONCLUSIONS

GWG likely has a direct impact on birthweight; however, shared environmental and lifestyle factors within families may play a larger role in determining early-childhood weight status and obesity risk than GWG.

Preterm birth and risk for language delays before school entry: A sibling-control study

We investigated whether children born preterm are at risk for language delay using a sibling-control design in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa), conducted by the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Participants included 26,769 siblings born between gestational weeks 23 and 42. Language delay was assessed when the children were 1.5, 3, and 5 years old. To adjust for familial risk factors, comparisons were conducted between preterm and full-term siblings. Pregnancy-specific risk factors were controlled for by means of observed variables. Findings showed that preterm children born before week 37 had increased risk for language delays at 1.5 years. At 3 and 5 years, only children born before week 34 had increased risk for language delay. Children born weeks 29–33 and before week 29 had increased risk for language delay at 1.5 years (RR = 4.51, 95% CI [3.45, 5.88]; RR = 10.32, 95% CI [6.7, 15.80]), 3 years (RR = 1.50, 95% CI [1.02, 2.21]; RR = 2.78, 95% CI [1.09, 7.07]), and 5 years (RR = 1.63, 95% CI [1.06, 2.51]; RR = 2.98, 95% CI [0.87, 10.26]), respectively. In conclusion, children born preterm are at risk for language delays, with familial confounders only explaining a moderate share of the association. This suggests a cause-effect relationship between early preterm birth and risk for language delay in preschool children.

Epigenome-wide association study of level and change in cognitive abilities from midlife through late life

Background

Epigenetic mechanisms are important in aging and may be involved in late-life changes in cognitive abilities. We conducted an epigenome-wide association study of leukocyte DNA methylation in relation to level and change in cognitive abilities, from midlife through late life in 535 Swedish twins.

Results

Methylation levels were measured with the Infinium Human Methylation 450 K or Infinium MethylationEPIC array, and all sites passing quality control on both arrays were selected for analysis (n = 250,816). Empirical Bayes estimates of individual intercept (age 65), linear, and quadratic change were obtained from latent growth curve models of cognitive traits and used as outcomes in linear regression models. Significant sites (p < 2.4 × 10^–7) were followed up in between-within twin pair models adjusting for familial confounding and full-growth modeling. We identified six significant associations between DNA methylation and level of cognitive abilities at age 65: cg18064256 (PPP1R13L) with processing speed and spatial ability; cg04549090 (NRXN3) with spatial ability; cg09988380 (POGZ), cg25651129 (-), and cg08011941 (ENTPD8) with working memory. The genes are involved in neuroinflammation, neuropsychiatric disorders, and ATP metabolism. Within-pair associations were approximately half that of between-pair associations across all sites. In full-growth curve models, associations between DNA methylation and cognitive level at age 65 were of small effect sizes, and associations between DNA methylation and longitudinal change in cognitive abilities of very small effect sizes.

Conclusions

Leukocyte DNA methylation was associated with level, but not change in cognitive abilities. The associations were substantially attenuated in within-pair analyses, indicating they are influenced in part by genetic factors.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13148-021-01075-9.

Association Between Atopic Dermatitis and Educational Attainment in Denmark

IMPORTANCE

Atopic dermatitis (AD) may affect academic performance through multiple pathways, including poor concentration associated with itching, sleep deprivation, or adverse effects of medications. Because educational attainment is associated with health and well-being, any association with a prevalent condition such as AD is of major importance.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether a childhood diagnosis of AD is associated with lower educational attainment.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based cohort study used linked routine health care data from January 1, 1977, to June 30, 2017 (end of registry follow-up), in Denmark. The study population included all children born in Denmark on June 30, 1987, or earlier with an inpatient or outpatient hospital clinic diagnosis of AD recorded before their 13th birthday (baseline) and a comparison cohort of children from the general population matched by birth year and sex. A secondary analysis included exposure-discordant full siblings as a comparison cohort to account for familial factors. Data were analyzed from September 11, 2019, to January 21, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Hospital-diagnosed AD.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Estimated probability or risk of not attaining specific educational levels (lower secondary, upper secondary, and higher) by 30 years of age among children with AD compared with children in the matched general population cohort. Corresponding risk ratios (RRs) were computed using Poisson regression that was conditioned on matched sets and adjusted for age. The sibling analysis was conditioned on family and adjusted for sex and age.

RESULTS

The study included a total of 61 153 children, 5927 in the AD cohort (3341 male [56.4%]) and 55 226 from the general population (31 182 male [56.5%]). Compared with matched children from the general population, children with AD were at increased risk of not attaining lower secondary education (150 of 5927 [2.5%] vs 924 of 55 226 [1.7%]; adjusted RR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.26-1.78) and upper secondary education (1141 of 5777 [19.8%] vs 8690 of 52 899 [16.4%]; RR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.09-1.24), but not higher education (2406 of 4636 [51.9%] vs 18 785 of 35 408 [53.1%]; RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-1.00). The absolute differences in probability were less than 3.5%. The comparison of 3259 children with AD and 4046 of their full siblings yielded estimates that were less pronounced than those in the main analysis (adjusted RR for lower secondary education, 1.29 [95% CI, 0.92-1.82]; adjusted RR for upper secondary education, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.93-1.18]; adjusted RR for higher education, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.87-1.02]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This population-based cohort study found that hospital-diagnosed AD was associated with reduced educational attainment, but the clinical importance was uncertain owing to small absolute differences and possible confounding by familial factors in this study. Future studies should examine for replicability in other populations and variation by AD phenotype.

Long-term risk of epilepsy, cerebral palsy and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in children affected by a threatened abortion in utero

BACKGROUND

The birth of a child affected by a threatened abortion (TAB) in utero is associated with autism spectrum disorder; association with other neurological disorders is unknown.

METHODS

This nationwide registry-based cohort study included singletons live-born in Denmark (1979-2010), followed through 2016. The outcomes were epilepsy, cerebral palsy (CP) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). We used Cox regression to compute hazard ratios (HRs), adjusted for birth year, birth order, parental age, morbidity, medication use and maternal socio-economic factors. To remove time-invariant family-shared confounding, we applied sibling analyses.

RESULTS

The study population included 1 864 221 singletons live-born in 1979-2010. Among the TAB-affected children (N = 59 134) vs TAB-unaffected children, at the end of follow-up, the cumulative incidence was 2.2% vs 1.6% for epilepsy, 0.4% vs 0.2% for CP and 5.5% vs 4.2% for ADHD (for children born in 1995-2010). The adjusted HRs were 1.25 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-1.34] for epilepsy, 1.42 (95% CI 1.20-1.68) for CP and 1.21 (95% CI 1.14-1.29) for ADHD. In the sibling design, the adjusted HRs were unity for epilepsy (full siblings: 0.96, 95% CI 0.82-1.12; maternal: 1.04, 95% CI 0.90-1.20; paternal: 1.08, 95% CI 0.93-1.25) and ADHD (full: 1.08, 95% CI 0.92-1.27; maternal: 1.04, 95% CI 0.90-1.20; paternal: 1.08, 95% CI 0.93-1.25). For CP, HRs shifted away from unity among sibling pairs (full: 2.92, 95% CI 1.33-6.39; maternal: 2.03, 95% CI 1.15-3.57; paternal: 3.28, 95% CI 1.36-7.91).

CONCLUSIONS

The birth of a child affected by TAB in utero was associated with a greater risk of CP, but not epilepsy or ADHD.

Associations between adolescent cannabis use and young-adult functioning in three longitudinal twin studies

Observational studies have linked cannabis use to an array of negative outcomes, including psychiatric symptoms, cognitive impairment, and educational and occupational underachievement. These associations are particularly strong when cannabis use occurs in adolescence. Nevertheless, causality remains unclear. The purpose of the present study was thus to examine associations between prospectively assessed adolescent cannabis use and young-adult outcomes (psychiatric, cognitive, and socioeconomic) in three longitudinal studies of twins (n = 3,762). Twins reporting greater cumulative cannabis use in adolescence reported higher levels of psychopathology as well as poorer socioeconomic outcomes in young adulthood. However, cannabis use remained associated only with socioeconomic outcomes (i.e., educational attainment, occupational status, and income) in monozygotic-cotwin control analyses, which account fully for shared genetic and environmental confounding. Follow-up analyses examining associations between twin differences in adolescent cannabis use and longitudinal change in academic functioning during the middle- and high-school years provided a possible mechanism for these associations, indicating that greater cannabis use during this period was associated with decreases in grade point average and academic motivation as well as increases in academic problem behavior and school disciplinary problems. Our findings thus suggest that cannabis use in adolescence has potentially causal, deleterious effects on adolescent academic functioning and young-adult socioeconomic outcomes despite little evidence suggesting a strong, causal influence on adult mental health or cognitive ability.

Maternal pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and the risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in offspring: a systematic review, meta-analysis and quasi-experimental family-based study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies are inconclusive concerning the association between maternal pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in offspring. We therefore conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to clarify this association. To address the variation in confounding adjustment between studies, especially inadequate adjustment of unmeasured familial confounding in most studies, we further performed cousin and sibling comparisons in a nationwide population-based cohort in Sweden.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase and PsycINFO during 1975-2018. We used random-effects models to calculate pooled risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence interval. In the population-based study, Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate the unadjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and HRs adjusted for all confounders identified in previous studies. Stratified Cox models were applied to data on full cousins and full siblings to further control for unmeasured familial confounding.

RESULTS

Eight cohorts with a total of 784 804 mother-child pairs were included in the meta-analysis. Maternal overweight [RRoverweight = 1.31 (1.25-1.38), I2 = 6.80%] and obesity [RRobesity = 1.92 (1.84-2.00), I2 = 0.00%] were both associated with an increased risk of ADHD in offspring. In the population-based cohort of 971 501 individuals born between 1992 and 2004, unadjusted Cox models revealed similar associations [HRoverweight = 1.30 (1.28-1.34), HRobesity = 1.92 (1.87-1.98)]. These associations gradually attenuated towards the null when adjusted for measured confounders [HRoverweight = 1.21 (1.19-1.25), HRobesity = 1.60 (1.55-1.65)], unmeasured factors shared by cousins [HRoverweight = 1.10 (0.98-1.23), HRobesity = 1.44 (1.22-1.70)] and unmeasured factors shared by siblings [HRoverweight = 1.01 (0.92-1.11), HRobesity = 1.10 (0.94-1.27)].

CONCLUSION

Pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity is associated with an increased risk of ADHD in offspring. The observed association is largely due to unmeasured familial confounding.

Association Between Microscopic Colitis and Parkinson's Disease in a Swedish Population

BACKGROUND

Gastrointestinal inflammation has been linked with Parkinson's disease (PD). Microscopic colitis (MC) is an intestinal inflammatory disease with unknown relationship with PD.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to examine the association of MC with PD risk.

METHODS

In this nationwide matched cohort study in Sweden, PD incidence was compared between 12,609 patients with histologically confirmed MC and a matched population cohort of 58,879 MC-free individuals and a sibling cohort comprising all unaffected siblings of the MC patients (N_MC /N_Sibling  = 6281/12,351). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression models.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of ~7 years, we identified 449 incident PD diagnoses among the MC patients and the population cohort. Overall, MC was associated with an adjusted HR of 1.76 for PD, but the association attenuated substantially during follow-up. In the time-varying effects model, PD hazard was 3.45-fold (95% CI: 2.42, 4.93) higher during the first 2 years after biopsy and 1.80-fold (95% CI: 1.23, 2.64) higher during the following 3 years among MC versus MC-free individuals but was not different beyond 5 years after biopsy (HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.68, 1.54). This temporal pattern of MC-PD associations persisted when comparing MC patients to their siblings. In a post hoc case-control analysis, we also detected a strong association between MC and preexisting PD (odds ratio: 3.46; 95% CI: 2.91, 4.12).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that MC may not be a risk factor for PD; instead, it may co-occur with PD as a comorbidity or develop after a diagnosis of PD. © 2021 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Parental age and birth defects: a sibling study

Higher parental age at childbearing has generated much attention as a potential risk factor for birth disorders; however, previous research findings are mixed. Existing studies have exploited variation in parental age across families, which is problematic because families differ not only in parental age but also in genetic and environmental factors. To isolate the effects of parental age, holding many genetic and environmental factors constant, we exploit the variation in parental age within families and compare outcomes for full siblings. The study data were retrieved from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway, which covers the entire population of births in Norway over an extended period (totaling 1.2 million births). Using variation in parental age when siblings were born, we find large and convex effects of increased parental age on the increased risk of birth disorders. To facilitate comparison with the existing literature, we also estimate the effects of parental age using variation in parental age across families and find that the effects are substantially weaker. We conclude that the existing literature may have underestimated the negative effects of parental aging on adverse offspring outcomes.

Causal inference with observational data: the need for triangulation of evidence

The goal of much observational research is to identify risk factors that have a causal effect on health and social outcomes. However, observational data are subject to biases from confounding, selection and measurement, which can result in an underestimate or overestimate of the effect of interest. Various advanced statistical approaches exist that offer certain advantages in terms of addressing these potential biases. However, although these statistical approaches have different underlying statistical assumptions, in practice they cannot always completely remove key sources of bias; therefore, using design-based approaches to improve causal inference is also important. Here it is the design of the study that addresses the problem of potential bias - either by ensuring it is not present (under certain assumptions) or by comparing results across methods with different sources and direction of potential bias. The distinction between statistical and design-based approaches is not an absolute one, but it provides a framework for triangulation - the thoughtful application of multiple approaches (e.g. statistical and design based), each with their own strengths and weaknesses, and in particular sources and directions of bias. It is unlikely that any single method can provide a definite answer to a causal question, but the triangulation of evidence provided by different approaches can provide a stronger basis for causal inference. Triangulation can be considered part of wider efforts to improve the transparency and robustness of scientific research, and the wider scientific infrastructure and system of incentives.

Assessment of Cesarean Delivery and Neurodevelopmental and Psychiatric Disorders in the Children of a Population-Based Swedish Birth Cohort

IMPORTANCE

Recent studies suggest that cesarean delivery (CD) is associated with increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders in children, although they were unable to control for indications for CD or familial confounding beyond full siblings.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between CD and neurodevelopmental and psychiatric disorders in children.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This Swedish register-based cohort study included 1 179 341 term-birth singletons born between January 1, 1990, and December 31, 2003, and followed up through December 31, 2013. All individuals were linked to their full siblings, maternal and paternal half siblings, and maternal full cousins. Statistical analyses were performed from September 26, 2019, to January 16, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Birth by CD recorded at birth, stratified into planned and intrapartum CD.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Registered diagnoses of neurodevelopmental disorders, including attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism spectrum disorders (ASD), intellectual disability, tic disorders, communication disorders, learning disorders, and any neurodevelopmental disorder; and psychiatric disorders, including anxiety disorders, obsessive-compulsive disorder, depressive disorders, eating disorders, bipolar disorders, psychotic disorders, and any psychiatric disorder.

RESULTS

Of 1 179 341 individuals, 1 048 838 (533 140 boys [50.8%]) were delivered vaginally, 59 514 (30 138 boys [50.6%]) were delived via planned CD, and 70 989 (39 191 boys [55.2%]) were delivered via intrapartum CD. Mean (SD) age at follow-up was 17.7 (4.1) years for vaginal delivery, 16.6 (4.2) years for planned CD, and 16.8 (4.1) years for intrapartum CD. Compared with vaginal delivery, and after controlling for measured covariates (parental and neonatal characteristics, maternal comorbidities, and pregnancy complications), CD was associated with higher risk in children of any neurodevelopmental disorder (planned CD, hazard ratio [HR], 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.22; intrapartum CD, HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.05-1.14), ADHD (planned CD, HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.12-1.23; intrapartum CD, HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.05-1.15), and intellectual disability (planned CD, HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.14-1.39; intrapartum CD, HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.06-1.28). Only planned CD was associated with a higher risk of ASD (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.10-1.31), communication disorders (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.02-1.28), and learning disorders (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.01-1.30). Cesarean delivery was not associated with the remaining disorders. The associations between CD and any neurodevelopmental disorder, ADHD, ASD, and intellectual disability attenuated in full cousins and paternal half siblings, and further attenuated (became nonsignificant) in maternal half siblings and full siblings (risk of any neurodevelopmental disorder in full siblings, planned CD, HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.81-1.06; intrapartum CD, HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.96-1.21).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this study suggest that the association between CD and increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders in the children was most likely explained by unmeasured familial confounding.

Association of Preterm Birth With Prescription of Psychotropic Drugs in Adolescence and Young Adulthood

IMPORTANCE

Individuals born preterm have increased risk of mental health impairment compared with individuals born at term. The associations between preterm birth and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and autism are well established; for depression, anxiety, psychotic and bipolar disorder, studies show divergent results.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the prescription of psychotropic drugs in adolescence and young adulthood between those born preterm and those born at term.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used registry data to identify all Norwegians born after 23 weeks of completed gestation between 1989 and 1998. Included individuals were those without registered birth defects, alive at age 10 years, and with available maternal data. Individuals were followed up from 2004 to 2016. Psychotropic drug prescriptions received from age 10 to 23 years were compared between preterm groups and peers born at term. Individuals were compared with their siblings to control for shared family confounding. Data analyses were performed from August 2018 through February 2020.

EXPOSURES

Gestational age at birth (GA) was categorized in 4 groups: extremely preterm (GA, 23 weeks and 0 days to 27 weeks and 6 days), very preterm (GA, 28 weeks and 0 days to 31 weeks and 6 days), moderately or late preterm (GA, 32 weeks and 0 days to 36 weeks and 6 days), and full term (GA, 37 weeks and 0 days to 44 weeks and 6 days).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Prescriptions of psychotropic drugs (ie, prescriptions specifically of psychostimulants, antidepressants, anxiolytics, hypnotics or sedatives, or antipsychotics or prescriptions of any of these 5 drugs) among preterm groups were compared with prescriptions among peers born at term and among siblings.

RESULTS

Among 505 030 individuals (259 545 [51.4%] males; mean [SD] birth weight, 3533 [580] g), 762 individuals (0.2%) were extremely preterm, 2907 individuals (0.6%) were very preterm, 25 988 individuals (5.1%) were moderately or late preterm, and 475 373 individuals (94.1%) were full term. Individuals born preterm had increased risk of psychotropic drug prescription, with a dose-response association between GA and prescription. The extremely preterm group had higher rates of prescription for all drug types compared with peers born at term, with odds ratios from 1.7 (95% CI, 1.4-2.1) for antidepressants to 2.7 (95% CI, 2.1-3.4) for psychostimulants. The elevated odds of prescription of all types were less pronounced in the moderately to late preterm group, including odds ratios of 1.1 (95% CI, 1.0-1.1) for antidepressants and 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1-1.2) for psychostimulants. The increases in odds were smaller in the sibling comparison, and increases were not significant for several groups. For example, the OR for any prescription in the sibling analysis was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.2-2.8) in the very preterm group and 1.0 (95% CI, 0.9-1.1) in the moderately or late preterm group.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study found higher rates of prescription of psychotropic drugs throughout adolescence and young adulthood among individuals with all degrees of preterm birth compared with those born at term. These results provide further evidence for an increased risk of mental health impairment among individuals born preterm and suggest that this is not restricted to the most preterm groups.

Family-Based Designs that Disentangle Inherited Factors from Pre- and Postnatal Environmental Exposures: In Vitro Fertilization, Discordant Sibling Pairs, Maternal versus Paternal Comparisons, and Adoption Designs

Identifying environmental risk and protective exposures that have causal effects on health is an important scientific goal. Many environmental exposures are nonrandomly allocated and influenced by dispositional factors including inherited ones. We review family-based designs that can separate the influence of environmental exposures from inherited influences shared between parent and offspring. We focus on prenatal exposures. We highlight that the family-based designs that can separate the prenatal environment from inherited confounds are different to those that are able to pull apart later-life environmental exposures from inherited confounds. We provide a brief review of the literature on maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and conduct problems; these inconsistencies in the literature make a review useful and this illustrates that results of family-based genetically informed studies are inconsistent with a causal interpretation for this exposure and these two offspring outcomes.

Antidepressant Use During Pregnancy and the Potential Risks of Motor Outcomes and Intellectual Disabilities in Offspring: A Systematic Review

Background

There is a risk of adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes in offspring from exposure to antidepressants during pregnancy.

Objective

This study was performed to systematically review the available evidence regarding the impact of in utero exposure to antidepressants on motor and intellectual disability outcomes in children.

Patients and Methods

A systematic literature search for published observational studies examining the effects of antidepressants on motor development or intellectual disabilities in children was conducted using the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PubMed/Medline, and Google Scholar.

Results

A total of 14 studies were included in this review. Studies have reported conflicting effects on motor development in infants with maternal exposure to antidepressants. Furthermore, not all of the studies included that assessed intellectual disabilities in infants found an association between maternal exposure to antidepressants and intellectual disabilities. However, methodological flaws existed in the studies, such as the use of scales with inadequate reliability or validity, a lack of statistical power, or confounding by indication or disease severity.

Conclusion

The available literature provides inconclusive evidence on the relationship between in utero exposure to antidepressants and adverse effects on motor development outcomes or neurocognitive skills. Further observational studies with robust methodologies are needed to comprehensively evaluate the potential risks of prescribing antidepressants during pregnancy.

Twin Differences in Harsh Parenting Predict Youth's Antisocial Behavior

In the current study, we leveraged differences within twin pairs to examine whether harsh parenting is associated with children's antisocial behavior via environmental (vs. genetic) transmission. We examined two independent samples from the Michigan State University Twin Registry. Our primary sample contained 1,030 families (2,060 twin children; 49% female; 6-10 years old) oversampled for exposure to disadvantage. Our replication sample included 240 families (480 twin children; 50% female; 6-15 years old). Co-twin control analyses were conducted using a specification-curve framework, an exhaustive modeling approach in which all reasonable analytic specifications of the data are interrogated. Results revealed that, regardless of zygosity, the twin experiencing harsher parenting exhibited more antisocial behavior. These effects were robust across multiple operationalizations and informant reports of both harsh parenting and antisocial behavior with only a few exceptions. Results indicate that the association between harsh parenting and children's antisocial behavior is, to a large degree, environmental in origin.

Protein C global assay evaluation in naturally conceived vs. assisted reproduction-achieved twin pregnancies: a prospective longitudinal study

PURPOSE

Protein C global assay tests the global function of the protein C pathway, the most clinically significant anticoagulant pathway in humans. The objective of this study is to assess the difference in protein C global assay levels, throughout twin gestation, in naturally conceiving and ART-treated women.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort longitudinal study of pregnant women with twin gestation. Protein C Global evaluation was performed on frozen blood samples. Ninety-eight women with twin pregnancy, thirty-eight naturally conceived and sixty following ART, were evaluated on four occasions: during the first, second, and third trimesters, and 6 weeks or later after delivery (baseline).

RESULTS

Protein C global assay levels were lower throughout pregnancy as compared to basal levels in both the naturally conceived and ART-conceived groups. However, protein C global assay levels were similar between the ART-conceived and naturally conceived twin pregnancies in all three trimesters. Perinatal complications were associated with decreased protein C global assay levels during the third trimester, although no difference was encountered between naturally conceived and ART-complicated twin pregnancies.

CONCLUSION

While protein C global assay levels drop during twin pregnancy, there is no difference between ART-conceived and naturally conceived gestations. Decreased levels of protein C global assay during the third trimester were similarly associated with perinatal complications in both groups. Our results imply that twin pregnancy of itself is a more dominant factor for perinatal complications as compared to other factors, such as subfertility or the exposure to ART per se.

Neonatal jaundice, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and familial effects: A Swedish register study with sibling analysis

AIM

Neonatal jaundice is associated with higher risk of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), but it is unclear if the association is influenced by genetic and other familial factors. In this large population-based study, we investigated the association between neonatal jaundice and ADHD while adjusting for familial factors.

METHODS

We linked several Swedish registers to identify all singleton births without congenital malformations between 1992 and 2000 (n = 814 420, including 384 290 full siblings) and followed them up until 2009. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between neonatal jaundice and ADHD, adjusting for pregnancy, delivery and neonatal characteristics including prematurity, and parental age and education. We repeated the analyses among siblings to adjust for shared familial factors.

RESULTS

At a population level, children treated for neonatal jaundice had an increased risk of ADHD (adjusted HR (aHR): 1.13, 95% CI: 1.05-1.22). In the sibling comparisons, there was no clear association between neonatal jaundice and ADHD (aHR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.82-1.29).

CONCLUSION

We found no evidence of an independent association between neonatal jaundice and ADHD within siblings in this large population-based study, suggesting that the association is probably influenced by shared familial factors, such as parental genetic and/or lifestyle effects.

Green mobility and obesity risk: A longitudinal analysis in California

Previous work reports an inverse association between neighborhood greenness and obesity. Limitations of this work, which relies largely on cross-sectional data, include that studies often lack control for unmeasured genetic and sociodemographic factors that may confound associations, and cannot disentangle temporal order between neighborhood greenness and obesity. We move beyond a cross-sectional approach and leverage a longitudinal sibling-linked dataset with health, residential, and demographic information on women with two births in California between 2007 and 2015 (N = 552,929). We used a sibling comparison design to control for unmeasured stable characteristics of women and tested whether a positive change in neighborhood greenness (i.e., "upward green mobility") precedes a reduction in obesity risk. Models also adjusted for baseline obesity risk and time-varying individual- and neighborhood-level socioeconomic factors. As hypothesized, we find that upward green mobility varies inversely with the odds of obesity. Results indicate that small decreases in neighborhood greenness may also show protective associations with obesity risk. Our findings, if replicated, suggest that changing levels (particularly increases) of greenness in the residential environment may combat the rise of obesity.

Maternal antibiotic use during pregnancy and asthma in children: population-based cohort study and sibling design

Antibiotic use during pregnancy may affect asthma risk in offspring. However, epidemiological studies yielded conflicting findings, with an observed association possibly confounded by shared familial factors. We sought to assess the association between maternal antibiotic use during pregnancy and childhood asthma in the offspring, by accounting for time-stable familial factors.We conducted a population-based cohort study and sibling study using data from Danish nationwide registers, which comprised 407 804 liveborn singletons from 2005 to 2011. Antibiotic use during pregnancy was defined as at least one antibiotic prescription filled by the mother from 1 month prior to pregnancy up until delivery, identified in the National Prescription Registry. First-time asthma in the offspring was determined by hospital treatment or asthma medication treatment after age 5 years. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of asthma using Cox regression in the population-based cohort and stratified Cox regression in the sibling cohort.Approximately 36.5% of pregnant women redeemed antibiotic prescriptions. Antibiotic use during pregnancy was associated with childhood asthma in cohort analyses (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.18-1.24), but not in sibling analyses (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.90-1.03). In the population-based analyses, higher risks of asthma were seen with longer duration of maternal antibiotic use, a higher number of prescriptions and prescriptions of multiple types of antibiotics. All these associations disappeared in the sibling analyses.The associations observed by previous studies for prenatal exposure to antibiotics and offspring asthma risk are likely to be due to confounding factors shared within families.

The Role of Remembered Parenting on Adult Self-Esteem: A Monozygotic Twin Difference Study

Self-esteem is an attitude about the self that predicts psychopathology and general well-being. Parenting practices have been shown to be related to self-esteem, but these estimates are confounded because parents and children share genes. The aim of the present study was to use the monozygotic (MZ) twin difference design to isolate the non-shared environmental impact of remembered parenting on self-esteem. In a sample of 1328 adults (345 MZ twin pairs, 319 DZ twin pairs), retrospective reports of maternal and paternal affection were related to self-esteem, all of which were significantly heritable. Using MZ difference scores, paternal affection differences, but not maternal affection differences, were significantly related to self-esteem differences. These results suggest that parenting provided by the father directly impacts self-esteem through non-shared environmental mechanisms. Maternal affection, on the other hand, impacts self-esteem through shared genes (not shared environment, as shared environment was not a significant aspect of self-esteem). This has implications for parenting intervention programs.

Increased Functional Segregation Related to the Salience Network in Unaffected Siblings of Youths With Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

OBJECTIVE

Although there are frequent reports of shared neurofunctional and neurostructural alterations among probands with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and their unaffected siblings, there is little knowledge regarding whether abnormalities in the resting-state functional connectivity of ADHD probands is also expressed in unaffected siblings, or whether this unaffected (but at-risk) cohort manifests distinct patterns.

METHOD

We used a multivariate connectome-wide association study examining intrinsic functional connectivity with resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a sample (aged 8-17 years) of medication-naive ADHD probands (n = 56), their unaffected siblings (n = 55), and typically developing (TD) youths (n = 106).

RESULTS

ADHD probands showed, relative to TD youths, increased connectivity between the default-mode network (DMN) and task-positive networks. Relative to ADHD and TD groups, respectively, unaffected siblings showed increased connectivity within the salience network and reduced connectivity between the DMN and salience network. No shared alterations in functional connectivity among ADHD probands and their unaffected siblings were identified. These findings were largely confirmed by complementary pairwise connectomic comparisons. However, the main connectivity differences between ADHD and unaffected siblings were not replicated in a tightly age- and sex-matched subsample (20 proband-sibling pairs and 60 TD youths).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that increased functional segregation related to the attention networks, especially the salience (ventral attention) system, may be a potential feature of at-risk siblings who remain unaffected by ADHD expression. Further replications are needed in other larger and sex-matched samples.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION

Structural and Functional Connectivity of Frontostriatal and Frontoparietal Networks as Endophenotypes of ADHD; https://clinicaltrials.gov/; NCT01682915.

Child health outcomes following fertility treatment and patient characteristics: discrepancies, limitations and prudence

We argue that increased risk for a variety of diseases in ART children has been consistently reaffirmed by different methods and in diverse populations, providing a methodological critique of recent sibling studies, which hold great potential for studying the risks of ART. A recent within-family analysis using a national population register holds a distinct size advantage over previous studies, and suggested that apparent risks to offspring may be attributable to birth order. However, limitations of the design may have resulted in an erroneous conclusion. We discuss the advantages of a frequently neglected sibling study design, which compares siblings born of surrogate motherhood. While uncertainty remains, the evidence points to elevated risk for ART offspring. It may therefore be prudent to call for an extension of preventive and precautionary decisions to the entire population, and to change informed consent to incorporate the long-term health consequences of fertility treatments.

Education differences in sickness absence and the role of health behaviors: a prospective twin study

BACKGROUND

Long-term sickness absences burden the economy in many industrialized countries. Both educational attainment and health behaviors are well-known predictors of sickness absence. It remains, however, unclear whether these associations are causal or due to confounding factors. The co-twin control method allows examining causal hypotheses by controlling for familial confounding (shared genes and environment). In this study, we applied this design to study the role of education and health behaviors in sickness absence, taking sex and cohort differences into account.

METHODS

Participants were two cohorts of in total 8806 Norwegian twins born 1948 to 1960 (older cohort, mean age at questionnaire = 40.3, 55.8% women), and 1967 to 1979 (younger cohort, mean age at questionnaire = 25.6, 58.9% women). Both cohorts had reported their health behaviors (smoking, physical activity and body mass index (BMI)) through a questionnaire during the 1990s. Data on the twins' educational attainment and long-term sickness absences between 2000 and 2014 were retrieved from Norwegian national registries. Random (individual-level) and fixed (within-twin pair) effects regression models were used to measure the associations between educational attainment, health behaviours and sickness absence and to test the effects of possible familial confounding.

RESULTS

Low education and poor health behaviors were associated with a higher proportion of sickness absence at the individual level. There were stronger effects of health behaviors on sickness absence in women, and in the older cohort, whereas the effect of educational attainment was similar across sex and cohorts. After adjustment for unobserved familial factors (genetic and environmental factors shared by twin pairs), the associations were strongly attenuated and non-significant, with the exception of health behaviors and sickness absence among men in the older cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The associations between educational attainment, health behaviors, and sickness absence seem to be confounded by unobserved familial factors shared by co-twins. However, the association between health behaviors and sickness absence was consistent with a causal effect among men in the older cohort. Future studies should consider familial confounding, as well as sex and age/cohort differences, when assessing associations between education, health behaviors and sickness absence.

Association of Opioid Prescription Initiation During Adolescence and Young Adulthood With Subsequent Substance-Related Morbidity

IMPORTANCE

Concerns about adverse outcomes associated with opioid analgesic prescription have led to major guideline and policy changes. Substantial uncertainty remains, however, regarding the association between opioid prescription initiation and increased risk of subsequent substance-related morbidity.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of opioid initiation among adolescents and young adults with subsequent broadly defined substance-related morbidity.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study analyzed population-register data from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2013, on Swedish individuals aged 13 to 29 years by January 1, 2013, who were naive to opioid prescription. To account for confounding, the analysis compared opioid prescription recipients with recipients of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs as an active comparator, compared opioid-recipient twins and other multiple birth individuals with their nonrecipient co-multiple birth offspring (co-twin control), examined dental prescription as a specific indication, and included individual, parental, and socioeconomic covariates. Data were analyzed from March 30, 2019, to January 22, 2020.

EXPOSURES

Opioid prescription initiation, defined as first dispensed opioid analgesic prescription.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Substance-related morbidity, assessed as clinically diagnosed substance use disorder or overdose identified from inpatient or outpatient specialist records, substance use disorder or overdose cause of death, dispensed pharmacotherapy for alcohol use disorder, or conviction for substance-related crime.

RESULTS

Among the included cohort (n = 1 541 862; 793 933 male [51.5%]), 193 922 individuals initiated opioid therapy by December 31, 2013 (median age at initiation, 20.9 years [interquartile range, 18.2-23.6 years]). The active comparator design included 77 143 opioid recipients without preexisting substance-related morbidity and 229 461 nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug recipients. The adjusted cumulative incidence of substance-related morbidity within 5 years was 6.2% (95% CI, 5.9%-6.5%) for opioid recipients and 4.9% (95% CI, 4.8%-5.1%) for nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug recipients (hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.23-1.35). The co-twin control design produced comparable results (3013 opioid recipients and 3107 nonrecipients; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.02-2.01), as did restriction to analgesics prescribed for dental indications and additional sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among adolescents and young adults analyzed in this study, initial opioid prescription receipt was associated with an approximately 30% to 40% relative increase in risk of subsequent substance-related morbidity in multiple designs that adjusted for confounding. These findings suggest that this increase may be smaller than previously estimated in some other studies.

The association between birth by cesarean section and adolescent cardiorespiratory fitness in a cohort of 339,451 Swedish males

Birth by cesarean section is increasing worldwide and associates with offspring morbidities capable of adversely impacting cardiorespiratory fitness later in life. Whether birth by cesarean section associates with lower levels of cardiorespiratory fitness later in life is unknown and is of interest to public health. Four Swedish national registers were linked to follow 339,451 singleton males, born between 1973–1987 until December 31 2005, for Watt-maximum achieved on a cycle ergometer test at conscription into the Swedish military. Main exposure was birth by cesarean section which was compared to vaginal birth. A sub-population of 45,999 males born between 1982–1987 was identified to explore differentiated associations between elective and non-elective cesarean section with Watt-maximum. Within-family analyses of 34,252 families with 70,632 biological male siblings, who conscripted during the study period, were performed to explore the role of familial confounding on Watt-maximum. Swedish males born by cesarean section achieved lower mean Watt-maximum (− 2.32 W, 95%C.I. − 2.90 to − 1.75) and displayed excess odds of low cardiorespiratory fitness (aOR = 1.08, 95%C.I. 1.05 to 1.11) at conscription in the eighteenth life-year compared to males born vaginally after adjusting for birth characteristics, maternal morbidities and parental socioeconomic position. In the sub-population, males born 1982–1987, there was a greater negative association of elective cesarean section with cardiorespiratory fitness (− 4.42 W, 95%C.I. − 6.27 to − 2.57, p < 0.001) than non-elective cesarean sections (− 1.96 W, 95%C.I. − 3.77 to − 0.16, p = 0.033) as compared to vaginal births. No associations between modes of cesarean delivery and cardiorespiratory fitness levels persisted in the within-family analyses where biological male siblings were compared whilst controlling for factors shared within families. Males born by cesarean section had lower levels of cardiorespiratory fitness eighteen years later compared to males born vaginally. These findings appear to be largely explained by factors of familial confounding.