The impact of antiretroviral treatment on the age composition of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa

High rates of homicide in a rural South African population (2000-2008): findings from a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

South Africa has continued to receive increasing attention due to unprecedented high levels of violence. Homicide-related violence accounts for a significant proportion of unnatural deaths and contributes significantly to loss of years of expected life. We investigated levels and factors associated with homicide-related deaths and identify communities with excessively high homicide risk in a typical rural South African population.

METHOD

Data drawn from verbal autopsies conducted on all deaths recorded during annual demographic and health surveillance in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa were used to derive the cumulative probability of death from homicide over a nine-year period (2000-2008). Weibull regression methods were used to investigate factors associated with homicide deaths. A Kulldorff spatial scan statistic was used to identify spatial clusters of homicide-related deaths.

RESULTS

With 536 homicide-related deaths, and a median seven years of follow-up, the study found an overall homicide incidence rate of 66 deaths per 100, 000 person-years of observation (PYOs) (95 % CI 60-72) for the period under study. Death related to the use of firearms was the leading reported method of homicide (65 %) and most deaths occurred over weekends (43 %). Homicides are the second-most common cause of death in men aged 25-34 after HIV-related deaths (including TB) in this community, at 210 deaths per 100,000 PYOs, and was highest among 55-64 year old women, at 78 deaths per 100,000 PYOs. Residency status, age, socioeconomic status, and highest education level attained independently predicted the risk of homicide death. The spatial distribution of homicide deaths was not homogenous and the study identified two clear geographical clusters with significantly elevated homicide risk.

CONCLUSION

The high rates of homicide observed in this typical rural South African population - particularly among men - underscore the need for urgent interventions to reduce this tragic and theoretically preventable loss of life in this population and similar South African settings.

Carotid Intima Media Thickness in Mainly Female HIV-Infected Subjects in Rural South Africa: Association With Cardiovascular but Not HIV-Related Factors

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, the number of persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has increased immensely. In parallel, rates of noncommunicable diseases, especially cardiovascular disease, are rising rapidly in resource-limited settings. This study aims to evaluate the relation between subclinical atherosclerosis and HIV-related and traditional cardiovascular risk factors in HIV-infected patients in rural South Africa.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was performed among HIV-infected patients visiting a health center in Limpopo, South Africa. Demographic and HIV-related information was collected, and cardiovascular risk was assessed. Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) was measured and the prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis (CIMT >0.78 mm) was calculated. The association between cardiovascular or HIV-related determinants with CIMT was analyzed using linear and logistic regression models adjusted for age and sex.

RESULTS

The median CIMT in 866 subjects (median age [interquartile range], 41 [35-48] years; 69% female) was 0.589 mm (interquartile range, 0.524-0.678 mm), and values seemed higher than in healthy Western reference populations. In fact 12% of subjects (106 of 866) had subclinical atherosclerosis. Hypertension, high body mass index, previous cardiovascular event, diabetes mellitus, total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, estimated glomerular filtration rate, metabolic syndrome, and the Framingham Heart Risk score were independently associated with CIMT. No HIV-related determinants were associated with CIMT.

CONCLUSIONS

In a predominantly female HIV-infected population in South Africa, CIMT values are considerably high and associated with cardiovascular risk factors, rather than HIV-related factors. This finding emphasizes the need to screen for cardiovascular disease among persons with HIV infection in resource-limited settings. Ideally, this screening would be integrated into care for chronic HIV infection, posing a major challenge for the future.

Future challenges for clinical care of an ageing population infected with HIV: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The population infected with HIV is getting older and these people will increasingly develop age-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We aimed to quantify the scale of the change and the implications for HIV care in the Netherlands in the future.

METHODS

We constructed an individual-based model of the ageing HIV-infected population, which followed patients on HIV treatment as they age, develop NCDs-including cardiovascular disease (hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, myocardial infarctions, and strokes), diabetes, chronic kidney disease, osteoporosis, and non-AIDS malignancies-and start co-medication for these diseases. The model was parameterised by use of data for 10 278 patients from the national Dutch ATHENA cohort between 1996 and 2010. We made projections up to 2030.

FINDINGS

Our model suggests that the median age of HIV-infected patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) will increase from 43·9 years in 2010 to 56·6 in 2030, with the proportion of HIV-infected patients aged 50 years or older increasing from 28% in 2010 to 73% in 2030. In 2030, we predict that 84% of HIV-infected patients will have at least one NCD, up from 29% in 2010, with 28% of HIV-infected patients in 2030 having three or more NCDs. 54% of HIV-infected patients will be prescribed co-medications in 2030, compared with 13% in 2010, with 20% taking three or more co-medications. Most of this change will be driven by increasing prevalence of cardiovascular disease and associated drugs. Because of contraindications and drug-drug interactions, in 2030, 40% of patients could have complications with the currently recommended first-line HIV regimens.

INTERPRETATION

The profile of patients in the Netherlands infected with HIV is changing, with increasing numbers of older patients with multiple morbidities. These changes mean that, in the near future, HIV care will increasingly need to draw on a wide range of medical disciplines, in addition to evidence-based screening and monitoring protocols to ensure continued high-quality care. These findings are based on a large dataset of HIV-infected patients in the Netherlands, but we believe that the overall patterns will be repeated elsewhere in Europe and North America. The implications of such a trend for care of HIV-infected patients in high-burden countries in Africa could present a particular challenge.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Rush Foundation, and Netherlands Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport.

Future challenges for clinical care of an ageing population infected with HIV: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The population infected with HIV is getting older and these people will increasingly develop age-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We aimed to quantify the scale of the change and the implications for HIV care in the Netherlands in the future.

METHODS

We constructed an individual-based model of the ageing HIV-infected population, which followed patients on HIV treatment as they age, develop NCDs-including cardiovascular disease (hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, myocardial infarctions, and strokes), diabetes, chronic kidney disease, osteoporosis, and non-AIDS malignancies-and start co-medication for these diseases. The model was parameterised by use of data for 10 278 patients from the national Dutch ATHENA cohort between 1996 and 2010. We made projections up to 2030.

FINDINGS

Our model suggests that the median age of HIV-infected patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) will increase from 43·9 years in 2010 to 56·6 in 2030, with the proportion of HIV-infected patients aged 50 years or older increasing from 28% in 2010 to 73% in 2030. In 2030, we predict that 84% of HIV-infected patients will have at least one NCD, up from 29% in 2010, with 28% of HIV-infected patients in 2030 having three or more NCDs. 54% of HIV-infected patients will be prescribed co-medications in 2030, compared with 13% in 2010, with 20% taking three or more co-medications. Most of this change will be driven by increasing prevalence of cardiovascular disease and associated drugs. Because of contraindications and drug-drug interactions, in 2030, 40% of patients could have complications with the currently recommended first-line HIV regimens.

INTERPRETATION

The profile of patients in the Netherlands infected with HIV is changing, with increasing numbers of older patients with multiple morbidities. These changes mean that, in the near future, HIV care will increasingly need to draw on a wide range of medical disciplines, in addition to evidence-based screening and monitoring protocols to ensure continued high-quality care. These findings are based on a large dataset of HIV-infected patients in the Netherlands, but we believe that the overall patterns will be repeated elsewhere in Europe and North America. The implications of such a trend for care of HIV-infected patients in high-burden countries in Africa could present a particular challenge.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Rush Foundation, and Netherlands Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport.

Cardiometabolic disease risk and HIV status in rural South Africa: establishing a baseline

BACKGROUND

To inform health care and training, resource and research priorities, it is essential to establish how non-communicable disease risk factors vary by HIV-status in high HIV burden areas; and whether long-term anti-retroviral therapy (ART) plays a modifying role.

METHODS

As part of a cohort initiation, we conducted a baseline HIV/cardiometabolic risk factor survey in 2010-2011 using an age-sex stratified random sample of ages 15+ in rural South Africa. We modelled cardiometabolic risk factors and their associations by HIV-status and self-reported ART status for ages 18+ using sex-stratified logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Age-standardised HIV prevalence in women was 26% (95% CI 24-28%) and 19% (95% CI 17-21) in men. People with untreated HIV were less likely to have a high waist circumference in both women (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.52-0.86) and men (OR 0.42; 95% CI 0.22-0.82). Untreated women were more likely to have low HDL and LDL, and treated women high triglycerides. Cardiometabolic risk factors increased with age except low HDL. The prevalence of hypertension was high (40% in women; 30% in men).

CONCLUSIONS

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing intersecting epidemics of HIV and hypertension. In this setting, around half the adult population require long-term care for at least one of HIV, hypertension or diabetes. Together with the adverse effects that HIV and its treatment have on lipids, this may have serious implications for the South African health care system. Monitoring of the interaction of HIV, ART use, and cardiometabolic disease is needed at both individual and population levels.

Risk Factors for Early Mortality on Antiretroviral Treatment of Elderly People Infected with HIV in Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

Age is a key determinant of mortality due to diseases including HIV infection.

METHODS

A retrospective and descriptive cohort study used a computerized database to compare HIV-infected patients diagnosed in late adulthood to a group of patients diagnosed before their 49 years of age, without matching the characteristics of HIV infection. The study included patients who visited the day hospital (outpatient clinic) of the Sanou Souro Teaching Hospital of Bobo-Dioulasso, in Burkina Faso, from January 2007 to December 2011. Older adults were defined as those aged 50 years and more.

RESULTS

Participants in the study consisted of 2572 patients (265 older adults and 2307 young patients living with HIV. Based on Markov chain method, 32.1% of the older adults living with HIV were found to be seroconvert at 50 years or older. The median follow-up time on antiretroviral treatment (ART) was 32.7 months (range 0.03-65.4 months). Two hundred and ninety-five (11.5%) patients died, including 21.1% of older adults and 10.4% of young (P < .01). World Health Organization stage 3 or 4 and the lowest CD4 count reached <200 cells/mm(3) were the factors associated with early mortality of older adults on ART.

CONCLUSION

Mortality rate of older adult patients living with HIV in Burkina Faso is high. Early diagnosis, early treatment, and primary prevention of HIV infection in the older adults are the main keys that could help reduce such mortality.

Equity in utilization of antiretroviral therapy for HIV-infected people in South Africa: a systematic review

Introduction

About half a million people in South Africa are deprived of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and there is little systematic knowledge on who they are – e.g. by severity of disease, sex, or socio-economic status (SES). We performed a systematic review to determine the current quantitative evidence-base on equity in utilization of ART among HIV-infected people in South Africa.

Method

We conducted a literature search based on the Cochrane guidelines. A study was included if it compared for different groups of HIV infected people (by sex, age, severity of disease, area of living, SES, marital status, ethnicity, religion and/or sexual orientation (i.e. equity criteria)) the number initiating/adhering to ART with the number who did not. We considered ART utilization inequitable for a certain criterion (e.g. sex) if between groups (e.g. men versus women) significant differences were reported in ART initiation/adherence.

Results

Twelve studies met the inclusion criteria. For sex, 2 out of 10 studies that investigated this criterion found that men are less likely than women to utilize ART, while the other 8 found no differences. For age, 4 out of 8 studies found inequities and reported less utilization for younger people. For area of living, 3 out of 4 studies showed that those living in rural areas or certain provinces have less access and 2 out of 6 studies looking at SES found that people with lower SES have less access. One study which looked at the marital status found that those who are married are less likely to utilize ART. For severity of disease, 5 out of 6 studies used more than one outcome measure for disease stage and reported within their study contradicting results. One of the studies reported inconclusive findings for ethnicity and no study had looked at religion and sexual orientation.

Conclusion

It seems that men, young people, those living in certain provinces or rural areas, people who are unemployed or with a low educational level, and those being unmarried have less access to ART. As studies stem from different contexts and use different methods conclusions should be taken with caution.

Characteristics and outcomes among older HIV-positive adults enrolled in HIV programs in four sub-Saharan African countries

Background

Limited information exists on adults ≥50 years receiving HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methodology

Using routinely-collected longitudinal patient-level data among 391,111 adults ≥15 years enrolling in HIV care from January 2005–December 2010 and 184,689 initiating ART, we compared characteristics and outcomes between older (≥50 years) and younger adults at 199 clinics in Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Tanzania. We calculated proportions over time of newly enrolled and active adults receiving HIV care and initiating ART who were ≥50 years; cumulative incidence of loss to follow-up (LTF) and recorded death one year after enrollment and ART initiation, and CD4+ response following ART initiation.

Findings

From 2005–2010, the percentage of adults ≥50 years newly enrolled in HIV care remained stable at 10%, while the percentage of adults ≥50 years newly initiating ART (10% [2005]-12% [2010]), active in follow-up (10% [2005]-14% (2010]), and active on ART (10% [2005]-16% [2010]) significantly increased. One year after enrollment, older patients had significantly lower incidence of LTF (33.1% vs. 32.6%[40–49 years], 40.5%[25–39 years], and 56.3%[15–24 years]; p-value<0.0001), but significantly higher incidence of recorded death (6.0% vs. 5.0% [40–49 years], 4.1% [25–39 years], and 2.8% [15–24 years]; p-valve<0.0001). LTF was lower after vs. before ART initiation for all ages, with older adults experiencing less LTF than younger adults. Among 85,763 ART patients with baseline and follow-up CD4+ counts, adjusted average 12-month CD4+ response for older adults was 20.6 cells/mm³ lower than for adults 25–39 years of age (95% CI: 17.1–24.1).

Conclusions

The proportion of patients who are ≥50 years has increased over time and been driven by aging of the existing patient population. Older patients experienced less LTF, higher recorded mortality and less robust CD4+ response after ART initiation. Increased programmatic attention on older adults receiving HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa is warranted.

Review: [corrected] The changing face of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa

The widespread roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has substantially changed the face of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Timely initiation of ART in HIV-infected individuals dramatically reduces mortality and improves employment rates to levels prior to HIV infection. Recent findings from several studies have shown that ART reduces HIV transmission risk even with modest ART coverage of the HIV-infected population and imperfect ART adherence. While condoms are highly effective in the prevention of HIV acquisition, they are compromised by low and inconsistent usage; male medical circumcision substantially reduces HIV transmission but uptake remains relatively low; ART during pregnancy, delivery and breastfeeding can virtually eliminate mother-to-child transmission but implementation is challenging, especially in resource-limited settings. The current HIV prevention recommendations focus on a combination of preventions approach, including ART as treatment or pre- or post-exposure prophylaxis together with condoms, circumcision and sexual behaviour modification. Improved survival in HIV-infected individuals and reduced HIV transmission risk is beginning to result in limited HIV incidence decline at population level and substantial increases in HIV prevalence. However, achievements in HIV treatment and prevention are threatened by the challenges of lifelong adherence to preventive and therapeutic methods and by the ageing of the HIV-infected cohorts potentially complicating HIV management. Although current thinking suggests prevention of HIV transmission through early detection of infection immediately followed by ART could eventually result in elimination of the HIV epidemic, controversies remain as to whether we can treat our way out of the HIV epidemic.

The unfolding counter-transition in rural South Africa: mortality and cause of death, 1994-2009

The HIV pandemic has led to dramatic increases and inequalities in adult mortality, and the diffusion of antiretroviral treatment, together with demographic and socioeconomic shifts in sub-Saharan Africa, has further changed mortality patterns. We describe all-cause and cause-specific mortality patterns in rural South Africa, analyzing data from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system from 1994 to 2009 for those aged 5 years and older. Mortality increased during that period, particularly after 2002 for ages 30-69. HIV/AIDS and TB deaths increased and recently plateaued at high levels in people under age 60. Noncommunicable disease deaths increased among those under 60, and recently also increased among those over 60. There was an inverse gradient between mortality and household SES, particularly for deaths due to HIV/AIDS and TB and noncommunicable diseases. A smaller and less consistent gradient emerged for deaths due to other communicable diseases. Deaths due to injuries remained an important mortality risk for males but did not vary by SES. Rural South Africa continues to have a high burden of HIV/AIDS and TB mortality while deaths from noncommunicable diseases have increased, and both of these cause-categories show social inequalities in mortality.

Antiretroviral treatment outcomes amongst older adults in a large multicentre cohort in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Increasing numbers of patients are starting antiretroviral treatment (ART) at advanced age or reaching advanced age while on ART. We compared baseline characteristics and ART outcomes of older adults (aged ≥55 years) vs. younger adults (aged 25-54 years) in routine care settings in South Africa.

METHODS

A multicentre cohort study of ART-naïve adults starting ART at 89 public sector facilities was conducted. Mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), immunological and virological outcomes until five years of ART were compared using competing-risks regression, generalised estimating equations and mixed-effects models.

RESULTS

4065 older adults and 86,006 younger adults were included. There were more men amongst older adults; 44.7% vs. 33.4%; RR = 1.34 (95% CI: 1.29-1.39). Mortality after starting ART was substantially higher amongst older adults, adjusted sub-hazard ratio (asHR) = 1.44 over 5 years (95% CI: 1.26-1.64), particularly for the period 7-60 months of treatment, asHR = 1.73 (95% CI: 1.44-2.10). LTFU was lower in older adults, asHR = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.78-0.97). Achievement of virological suppression was greater in older adults, adjusted odds ratio = 1.42 (95% CI: 1.23-1.64). The probabilities of viral rebound and confirmed virological failure were both lower in older adults, adjusted hazard ratios = 0.69 (95% CI: 0.56-0.85) and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.47-0.89), respectively. The rate of CD4 cell recovery (amongst patients with continuous viral suppression) was 25 cells/6 months of ART (95% CI: 17.3-33.2) lower in older adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Although older adults had better virological outcomes and reduced LTFU, their higher mortality and slower immunological recovery warrant consideration of age-specific ART initiation criteria and management strategies.

Large-scale HIV testing in the older population in China: findings from a cross-sectional study

Aiming to explore universal HIV testing, and to understand the exact HIV prevalence in the older general population, we conducted a community-based cross-sectional epidemiological investigation in two counties of Zhejiang province, China. Using census strategy and convenience sampling method, those participants who were older than 50 years and met eligibility criteria were enrolled, and HIV prevalence was presented as a crude infection rate. A total of 215,441 (64.82%) were enrolled into this study, HIV testing was added into their health exam plan and 18 were confirmed as HIV positive, giving a crude rate of 0.84/10,000. HIV prevalence was higher among men than among women in all age groups (p < 0.05). Unlike previous research, 14 cases (78%) still had a relatively high CD4 + count; 17 cases (94%) had been infected by sexual transmission. Active large-scale HIV screening by integrating into routine health care can be an effective strategy to find people living with HIV at relative early stage of disease.

A qualitative study of treatment needs among pregnant and postpartum women with substance use and depression

Little is known about treatment for pregnant and postpartum women with co-occurring substance use and depression. Funded by the National Institute of Drug Abuse, we conducted three focus groups with 18 pregnant and postpartum women in 2011 at an urban substance use treatment clinic. A semi-structured discussion guide probed for factors impacting treatment outcomes and needs. Data were analyzed using grounded theory. Women identified motivational, family, friend, romantic, and agency characteristics as facilitative or challenging to their recoveries, and desired structure (group treatment, a safe environment, and transportation) and content (attention to mental health, family, and gender-specific issues) of treatment.

Epidemiological and mortality analysis of older adults with HIV in eastern China

Objective

The aims of this study were to systematically review epidemiological characteristics in older people living with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) (PLWHA) in low endemic areas of the People’s Republic of China, analyze the causes of death and mortality, and provide a basis for targeted prevention in these populations.

Methods

Nine counties representative of the distribution and epidemiological factors of the HIV epidemic in Zhejiang Province were selected, and data from 1,115 HIV-positive individuals, including 196 older people (≥50 years), who were confirmed as PLWHA from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2012, were retrospectively analyzed.

Results

The proportion of older PLWHA increased from 0% in 2000 to 22.45% in 2012. Sexual transmission was the main route, accounting for 82.65% of infections in this group. Compared with the younger group (range from 14 to 49 years old), the older group had significantly lower CD4+ cell counts (291.64 versus 363.63; P<0.001) when first diagnosed, and more of this group presented in the AIDS state with opportunistic infections (51.02% versus 34.06%; P<0.001). In the older group, 25 (12.76%) patients died directly of AIDS and 171 (87.24%) were censored, and in the younger group 50 (5.44%) patients died directly of AIDS and 869 (94.56%) were censored. Estimated survival time since HIV diagnosis in the older group was 11.54±0.49 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.59–12.50), while in the younger group it was 13.85±0.46 years (95% CI 12.94–14.76), the log rank (Mantel–Cox) test gave a chi-square value of 3.83, and there was significant difference between the groups (P<0.05).

Conclusion

The number of older PLWHA increased steadily over the study period in low HIV endemic provinces of a developing country. Later discovery and preexisting disease perhaps contributed to a shorter estimated survival time for older PLWHA and higher mortality.

Resisting and challenging stigma in Uganda: the role of support groups of people living with HIV

INTRODUCTION

Global scale up of antiretroviral therapy is changing the context of HIV-related stigma. However, stigma remains an ongoing concern in many countries. Groups of people living with HIV can contribute to the reduction of stigma. However, the pathways through which they do so are not well understood.

METHODS

This paper utilizes data from a qualitative study exploring the impact of networked groups of people living with HIV in Jinja and Mbale districts of Uganda. Participants were people living with HIV (n=40), members of their households (n=10) and their health service providers (n=15). Data were collected via interviews and focus group discussions in 2010, and analyzed inductively to extract key themes related to the approaches and outcomes of the groups' anti-stigma activities.

RESULTS

Study participants reported that HIV stigma in their communities had declined as a result of the collective activities of groups of people living with HIV. However, they believed that stigma remained an ongoing challenge. Gender, family relationships, social and economic factors emerged as important drivers of stigma. Challenging stigma collectively transcended individual experiences and united people living with HIV in a process of social renegotiation to achieve change. Groups of people living with HIV provided peer support and improved the confidence of their members, which ultimately reduced self-stigma and improved their ability to deal with external stigma when it was encountered.

CONCLUSIONS

Antiretroviral therapy and group-based approaches in the delivery of HIV services are opening up new avenues for the collective participation of people living with HIV to challenge HIV stigma and act as agents of social change. Interventions for reducing HIV stigma should be expanded beyond those that aim to increase the resilience and coping mechanisms of individuals, to those that build the capacity of groups to collectively cope with and challenge HIV stigma. Such interventions should be gender sensitive and should respond to contextual social, economic and structural factors that drive stigma.

Elimination of HIV in South Africa through expanded access to antiretroviral therapy: a model comparison study

BACKGROUND

Expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) using universal test and treat (UTT) has been suggested as a strategy to eliminate HIV in South Africa within 7 y based on an influential mathematical modeling study. However, the underlying deterministic model was criticized widely, and other modeling studies did not always confirm the study's finding. The objective of our study is to better understand the implications of different model structures and assumptions, so as to arrive at the best possible predictions of the long-term impact of UTT and the possibility of elimination of HIV.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed nine structurally different mathematical models of the South African HIV epidemic in a stepwise approach of increasing complexity and realism. The simplest model resembles the initial deterministic model, while the most comprehensive model is the stochastic microsimulation model STDSIM, which includes sexual networks and HIV stages with different degrees of infectiousness. We defined UTT as annual screening and immediate ART for all HIV-infected adults, starting at 13% in January 2012 and scaled up to 90% coverage by January 2019. All models predict elimination, yet those that capture more processes underlying the HIV transmission dynamics predict elimination at a later point in time, after 20 to 25 y. Importantly, the most comprehensive model predicts that the current strategy of ART at CD4 count ≤350 cells/µl will also lead to elimination, albeit 10 y later compared to UTT. Still, UTT remains cost-effective, as many additional life-years would be saved. The study's major limitations are that elimination was defined as incidence below 1/1,000 person-years rather than 0% prevalence, and drug resistance was not modeled.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm previous predictions that the HIV epidemic in South Africa can be eliminated through universal testing and immediate treatment at 90% coverage. However, more realistic models show that elimination is likely to occur at a much later point in time than the initial model suggested. Also, UTT is a cost-effective intervention, but less cost-effective than previously predicted because the current South African ART treatment policy alone could already drive HIV into elimination. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Individual-based simulation models of HIV transmission: reporting quality and recommendations

BACKGROUND

Individual-based modeling is a growing technique in the HIV transmission and prevention literature, but insufficient attention has been paid to formally evaluate the quality of reporting in this field. We present reporting recommendations for individual-based models for HIV treatment and prevention, assess the quality of reporting in the existing literature, and comment on the contribution of this model type to HIV policy and prediction.

METHODS

We developed reporting recommendations for individual-based HIV transmission mathematical models, and through a systematic search, used them to evaluate the reporting in the existing literature. We identified papers that employed individual-based simulation models and were published in English prior to December 31, 2012. Articles were included if the models they employed simulated and tracked individuals, simulated HIV transmission between individuals in a particular population, and considered a particular treatment or prevention intervention. The papers were assessed with the reporting recommendations.

FINDINGS

Of 214 full text articles examined, 32 were included in the evaluation, representing 20 independent individual-based HIV treatment and prevention mathematical models. Manuscripts universally reported the objectives, context, and modeling conclusions in the context of the modeling assumptions and the model's predictive capabilities, but the reporting of individual-based modeling methods, parameterization and calibration was variable. Six papers discussed the time step used and one discussed efforts to maintain internal validity in coding.

CONCLUSION

Individual-based models represent detailed HIV transmission processes with the potential to contribute to inference and policy making for many different regions and populations. The rigor in reporting of assumptions, methods, and calibration of individual-based models focused on HIV transmission and prevention varies greatly. Higher standards for reporting of statistically rigorous calibration and model assumption testing need to be implemented to increase confidence in existing and future modeling results.

Role and outcomes of community health workers in HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

The provision of HIV treatment and care in sub-Saharan Africa faces multiple challenges, including weak health systems and attrition of trained health workers. One potential response to overcome these challenges has been to engage community health workers (CHWs).

METHODOLOGY

A systematic literature search for quantitative and qualitative studies describing the role and outcomes of CHWs in HIV care between inception and December 2012 in sub-Saharan Africa was performed in the following databases: PubMed, PsychINFO, Embase, Web of Science, JSTOR, WHOLIS, Google Scholar and SAGE journals online. Bibliographies of included articles were also searched. A narrative synthesis approach was used to analyze common emerging themes on the role and outcomes of CHWs in HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa.

RESULTS

In total, 21 studies met the inclusion criteria, documenting a range of tasks performed by CHWs. These included patient support (counselling, home-based care, education, adherence support and livelihood support) and health service support (screening, referral and health service organization and surveillance). CHWs were reported to enhance the reach, uptake and quality of HIV services, as well as the dignity, quality of life and retention in care of people living with HIV. The presence of CHWs in clinics was reported to reduce waiting times, streamline patient flow and reduce the workload of health workers. Clinical outcomes appeared not to be compromised, with no differences in virologic failure and mortality comparing patients under community-based and those under facility-based care. Despite these benefits, CHWs faced challenges related to lack of recognition, remuneration and involvement in decision making.

CONCLUSIONS

CHWs can clearly contribute to HIV services delivery and strengthen human resource capacity in sub-Saharan Africa. For their contribution to be sustained, CHWs need to be recognized, remunerated and integrated in wider health systems. Further research focusing on comparative costs of CHW interventions and successful models for mainstreaming CHWs into wider health systems is needed.

Role and outcomes of community health workers in HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

Introduction

The provision of HIV treatment and care in sub-Saharan Africa faces multiple challenges, including weak health systems and attrition of trained health workers. One potential response to overcome these challenges has been to engage community health workers (CHWs).

Methodology

A systematic literature search for quantitative and qualitative studies describing the role and outcomes of CHWs in HIV care between inception and December 2012 in sub-Saharan Africa was performed in the following databases: PubMed, PsychINFO, Embase, Web of Science, JSTOR, WHOLIS, Google Scholar and SAGE journals online. Bibliographies of included articles were also searched. A narrative synthesis approach was used to analyze common emerging themes on the role and outcomes of CHWs in HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa.

Results

In total, 21 studies met the inclusion criteria, documenting a range of tasks performed by CHWs. These included patient support (counselling, home-based care, education, adherence support and livelihood support) and health service support (screening, referral and health service organization and surveillance). CHWs were reported to enhance the reach, uptake and quality of HIV services, as well as the dignity, quality of life and retention in care of people living with HIV. The presence of CHWs in clinics was reported to reduce waiting times, streamline patient flow and reduce the workload of health workers. Clinical outcomes appeared not to be compromised, with no differences in virologic failure and mortality comparing patients under community-based and those under facility-based care. Despite these benefits, CHWs faced challenges related to lack of recognition, remuneration and involvement in decision making.

Conclusions

CHWs can clearly contribute to HIV services delivery and strengthen human resource capacity in sub-Saharan Africa. For their contribution to be sustained, CHWs need to be recognized, remunerated and integrated in wider health systems. Further research focusing on comparative costs of CHW interventions and successful models for mainstreaming CHWs into wider health systems is needed.

Dramatic increase in HIV prevalence after scale-up of antiretroviral treatment

OBJECTIVES

To investigate HIV prevalence trends in a rural South African community after the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) in 2004.

METHODS

We estimated adult HIV prevalence (ages 15-49 years) using data from a large, longitudinal, population-based HIV surveillance in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, over the period from 2004 (the year when the public-sector ART scale-up started) to 2011. We control for selection effects due to surveillance nonparticipation using multiple imputation. We further linked the surveillance data to patient records from the local HIV treatment program to estimate ART coverage.

RESULTS

ART coverage of all HIV-infected people in this community increased from 0% in 2004 to 31% in 2011. Over the same observation period adult HIV prevalence increased steadily from 21 to 29%. The change in overall HIV prevalence is nearly completely explained by an increase of HIV-infected people receiving ART, and it is largely driven by increases in HIV prevalence in women and men older than 24 years.

CONCLUSION

The observed dramatic increase in adult HIV prevalence can most likely be explained by increased survival of HIV-infected people due to ART. Future studies should decompose HIV prevalence trends into HIV incidence and HIV-specific mortality changes to further improve the causal attribution of prevalence increases to treatment success rather than prevention failure.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic models for the optimization of antiretroviral therapy: recent progress and future perspective

Anti-HIV therapy is characterized by the chronic administration of antiretrovirals (ARVs), and consequently, several problems can arise during the management of HIV-positive patients. ARV disposition can be simulated by combining system data describing a population of patients and in vitro drug data through physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models, which mathematically describe absorption, distribution, metabolism and elimination. PBPK modeling can find application in the investigation of clinically relevant scenarios, while providing the opportunity for a better understanding of the mechanisms regulating drug distribution. In this review, we have analyzed the most recent applications of PBPK models for ARVs and highlighted some of the most interesting areas of use, such as drug–drug interaction, pharmacogenetics, factors regulating absorption and tissue penetration, as well as therapy optimization in special populations. The application of the PBPK modeling approach might not be limited to the investigation of hypothetical clinical issues, but could be used to inform future prospective clinical trials.

Adaptation of a general primary care package for HIV-infected adults to an HIV centre setting in Gaborone, Botswana

BACKGROUND

As life expectancy of HIV-infected patients improves due to antiretroviral treatment (ART) and the importance of associated co-morbidities and chronic diseases increases, preventive care will become increasingly important. Adaptation of existing preventive guidelines to local environments will become a priority for HIV treatment programmes.

METHODS

Guidance from the World Health Organization, a focused evidenced-based literature review, Botswana national guidelines, Botswana-specific morbidity and mortality data and centre-specific data were used to adapt a published general primary care package for limited-resource areas to our centre's specific setting.

RESULTS

The preventive care package contains recommendations on tuberculosis prevention, malnutrition, depression, cervical and breast cancer, hepatitis B coinfection, cardiovascular risk factors, external injury prevention, domestic violence screening, tobacco and substance-abuse counselling, contraception and screening and treatment of sexually transmitted infections.

CONCLUSION

This preventive care package addresses the comprehensive health needs of HIV-infected adults in the FMC in an evidence-based manner. The process of combining clinic-specific prevalence data, national guidelines, regional literature and assessment of public-sector resources to adapt an existing general package could be utilised to develop similar guidelines in other resource-limited locales.

Human resources needs for universal access to antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a time and motion study

BACKGROUND

Although access to life-saving treatment for patients infected with HIV in South Africa has improved substantially since 2004, treating all eligible patients (universal access) remains elusive. As the prices of antiretroviral drugs have dropped over the past years, availability of human resources may now be the most important barrier to achieving universal access to HIV treatment in Africa. We quantify the number of HIV health workers (HHWs) required to be added to the current HIV workforce to achieve universal access to HIV treatment in South Africa, under different eligibility criteria.

METHODS

We performed a time and motion study in three HIV clinics in a rural, primary care-based HIV treatment program in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to estimate the average time per patient visit for doctors, nurses, and counselors. We estimated the additional number of HHWs needed to achieve universal access to HIV treatment within one year.

RESULTS

For universal access to HIV treatment for all patients with a CD4 cell count of ≤350 cells/μl, an additional 2,200 nurses, 3,800 counselors, and 300 doctors would be required, at additional annual salary cost of 929 million South African rand (ZAR), equivalent to US$ 141 million. For universal treatment ('treatment as prevention'), an additional 6,000 nurses, 11,000 counselors, and 800 doctors would be required, at an additional annual salary cost of ZAR 2.6 billion (US$ 400 million).

CONCLUSIONS

Universal access to HIV treatment for patients with a CD4 cell count of ≤350 cells/μl in South Africa may be affordable, but the number of HHWs available for HIV treatment will need to be substantially increased. Treatment as prevention strategies will require considerable additional financial and human resources commitments.

HIV treatment as prevention: issues in economic evaluation

Meyer-Rath and Over assert in another article in the July 2012 PLoS Medicine Collection, "Investigating the Impact of Treatment on New HIV Infections", that economic evaluations of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in currently existing programs and in HIV treatment as prevention (TasP) programs should use cost functions that capture cost dependence on a number of factors, such as scale and scope of delivery, health states, ART regimens, health workers' experience, patients' time on treatment, and the distribution of delivery across public and private sectors. We argue that for particular evaluation purposes (e.g., to establish the social value of TasP) and from particular perspectives (e.g., national health policy makers) less detailed cost functions may be sufficient. We then extend the discussion of economic evaluation of TasP, describing why ART outcomes and costs assessed in currently existing programs are unlikely to be generalizable to TasP programs for several fundamental reasons. First, to achieve frequent, widespread HIV testing and high uptake of ART immediately following an HIV diagnosis, TasP programs will require components that are not present in current ART programs and whose costs are not included in current estimates. Second, the early initiation of ART under TasP will change not only patients' disease courses and treatment experiences--which can affect behaviors that determine clinical treatment success, such as ART adherence and retention--but also quality of life and economic outcomes for HIV-infected individuals. Third, the preventive effects of TasP are likely to alter the composition of the HIV-infected population over time, changing its biological and behavioral characteristics and leading to different costs and outcomes for ART.