Assessing the durability of a cash transfer on physical intimate partner violence and sexual relationships among adolescent girls and young women in rural South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Cash transfers can reduce adolescent girls and young women's (AGYW) risk of intimate partner violence (IPV). In our own cash transfer intervention (HPTN 068), AGYW who received a cash transfer were less likely to experience IPV than non-recipients, in part because the cash reduced their engagement in sexual partnerships. This mixed-methods study builds on earlier findings to examine whether the protective effects were sustained after the cash ended and when the cash transfer was the most impactful.

METHODS

HPTN 068 was an experimental HIV prevention intervention trial. AGYW who participated completed 3 annual surveys during the intervention and an additional survey 2.5 years post-intervention. We used log-binomial regression models to assess the durability of the cash transfer on outcomes and included an interaction term in models to examine when effects were largest. We analyzed qualitative interviews conducted after the cash ended to contextualize findings.

RESULTS

Post-intervention, the relative risk of physical IPV was lower among AGYW who received it compared to those who did not, but not statistically significant (RR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.62, 1.10). AGYW who received the cash transfer also had a lower relative risk of ever having had sex and of having any sexual partner in the last 12 months (RR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.88, 1.01; RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.88, 0.99, respectively). The protective effect of the cash transfer on physical IPV was highest in Years 1 and 2 (RR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.55-0.75 and RR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.55-0.77, respectively). Qualitative data corroborated the quantitative findings.

CONCLUSION

The cash transfer reduced AGYW's risk of IPV, though effects were attenuated after the cash ended. Provision of cash during adolescence - a period when AGYW are highly susceptible to IPV and HIV - may empower them in their current relationship and yield long term health benefits.

"I am adhering to HIV treatment so that I can live to support her": A qualitative study of upward intergenerational support in South Africa

Background

Intergenerational family care, which was upended by the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), may return to a pre-HIV era arrangement as access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) expands and treated adults can once again provide support for older household members. Empirical research has demonstrated positive 'spillover effects' of ART uptake from treated adults to younger generations, yet much less is known about the nature and breadth of such effects to older generations. This study explores the role and lived experiences among adults who take up ART and those of an older generation with whom they live.

Methods

We conducted a qualitative study consisting of semi-structured interviews (n = 46) embedded in the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in rural South Africa, between July and September 2022. We purposefully sampled two respondent categories: (i) young or middle-aged adults on ART (aged 18-59 years old); and (ii) older adults (aged ≥60 years old) who were affiliated with a young or middle-aged adult on ART. We used thematic content analysis to extract, code, and categorise relevant text by types of upward spillover effects from ART in younger adults to older adults. Quantitative data was extracted from the existing Agincourt HDSS database and matched to qualitative interview data based on Clinic link unique identifiers of study participants.

Results

Mean age was 41 years among young or middle-aged adults (n = 29) and 72 years among older adults (n = 17). Among younger adults, time on ART ranged from five months to more than 21 years. Both young or middle-aged adults on ART and older adults reported positive spillover effects for older adults across five main tiers: caregiving, financial support, physical and mental health, living arrangements and household relationships, and stigma and reputation. Spillover challenges included financial costs and caregiving responsibilities following ART initiation of young or middle-aged adults, although these additional caregiving responsibilities were generally not perceived as particularly burdensome.

Conclusions

ART is likely to benefit older adults in South Africa whose families are affected by HIV. This study identified a wide range of perceived spillover effects from ART in younger adults to older adults, including improvements to upward intergenerational support. These qualitative findings offer a guide to researchers, policymakers, and donors to capitalise on the broader societal effects of a large-scale health intervention to further support family structures and meet the needs of a growing older population.

Trajectories of intimate partner violence and their relationship to stress among young women in South Africa: An HPTN 068 study

BACKGROUND

One in four South African women will experience intimate partner violence (IPV) in their lifetime, potentially increasing their biological stress. In South Africa, limited IPV and stress research has utilized multiple timepoints or examined modifying factors. Cash transfers (CTs) are associated with reduced IPV and stress and may be an intervention target.

AIMS

We used data-driven methods to identify longitudinal IPV trajectory groups among South African adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), estimate each group's association with stress, and assess modification by a CT.

METHODS

A total of 2,183 South African AGYW ages 13 to 24 years from the HIV Prevention Trials Network 068 study were randomized to a CT or control group. Physical IPV was measured five times (2011-2017), and stress was captured once (2018-2019). Stress measures included the Cohen Stress Scale and stress biomarkers (C-reactive protein (CRP), cytomegalovirus (CMV), herpes simplex virus type-1 (HSV-1)). Group-based trajectory modeling identified IPV trajectories; ordinal logistic regression estimated the association between trajectory group and stress.

RESULTS

A two-group quadratic trajectory model was identified (higher trajectory group = 26.7% of AGYW; lower trajectory group = 73.3%). In both groups, the probability of IPV increased from ages 13 to 17 years before declining in early adulthood. However, the higher group's probability peaked later and declined gradually. The higher trajectory group was associated with an increased odds of elevated CRP (OR: 1.41, 95% CI [1.11, 1.80]), but not with other stress measures. The CT modified the relationship with CMV: a positive association was observed among the usual care arm (OR: 1.59, 95% CI [1.11, 2.28]) but not the CT arm (OR: 0.85, 95% CI [0.61, 1.19]).

CONCLUSIONS

Sustained IPV risk during adolescence was associated with elevated CRP in young adulthood. The relationship between IPV and elevated CMV was attenuated among those receiving a CT, suggesting that CTs could possibly reduce biological stress due to IPV.

Expanding the human gut microbiome atlas of Africa

Population studies are crucial in understanding the complex interplay between the gut microbiome and geographical, lifestyle, genetic, and environmental factors. However, populations from low- and middle-income countries, which represent ~84% of the world population, have been excluded from large-scale gut microbiome research. Here, we present the AWI-Gen 2 Microbiome Project, a cross-sectional gut microbiome study sampling 1,803 women from Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa. By intensively engaging with communities that range from rural and horticultural to urban informal settlements and post-industrial, we capture population diversity that represents a far greater breadth of the world's population. Using shotgun metagenomic sequencing, we find that study site explains substantially more microbial variation than disease status. We identify taxa with strong geographic and lifestyle associations, including loss of Treponema and Cryptobacteroides species and gain of Bifidobacterium species in urban populations. We uncover a wealth of prokaryotic and viral novelty, including 1,005 new bacterial metagenome-assembled genomes, and identify phylogeography signatures in Treponema succinifaciens. Finally, we find a microbiome signature of HIV infection that is defined by several taxa not previously associated with HIV, including Dysosmobacter welbionis and Enterocloster sp. This study represents the largest population-representative survey of gut metagenomes of African individuals to date, and paired with extensive clinical biomarkers, demographic data, and lifestyle information, provides extensive opportunity for microbiome-related discovery and research.

The effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019: a data note

OBJECTIVES

South Africa is experiencing both HIV and hypertension epidemics. Data were compiled for a study to identify effects of HIV and high systolic blood pressure on mortality risk among people aged 40-plus in a rural South African area experiencing high prevalence of both conditions. We aim to release the replication data set for this study.

DATA DESCRIPTION

The research data comes from the 2010-11 Ha Nakekela (We Care) population-based survey nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) located in the northeast region of South Africa. An age-sex-stratified probability sample was drawn from the AHDSS. The public data set includes information on individual socioeconomic characteristics and measures of HIV status and blood pressure for participants aged 40-plus by 2019. The AHDSS, through its annual surveillance, provided mortality data for nine years subsequent to the survey. These data were converted to person-year observations and linked to the individual-level survey data using participants' AHDSS census identifier. The data can be used to replicate Houle et al. (2022) - which used discrete-time event history models stratified by sex to assess differential mortality risks according to Ha Nakekela measures of HIV-infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure.

Understanding the effects of universal test and treat on longitudinal HIV care outcomes among South African youth: a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Little is known about the effects of universal test and treat (UTT) policies on HIV care outcomes among youth living with HIV (YLHIV). Moreover, there is a paucity of information regarding when YLHIV are most susceptible to disengagement from care under the newest treatment guidelines. The longitudinal HIV care continuum is an underutilized tool that can provide a holistic understanding of population-level HIV care trajectories and be used to compare treatment outcomes across groups. We aimed to explore effects of the UTT policy on longitudinal outcomes among South African YLHIV and identify temporally precise opportunities for re-engaging this priority population in the UTT era.

METHODS

Using medical record data, we conducted a retrospective cohort study among youth aged 18-24 diagnosed with HIV from August 2015-December 2018 in nine health care facilities in South Africa. We used Fine and Gray sub-distribution proportional hazards models to characterize longitudinal care continuum outcomes in the population overall and stratified by treatment era of diagnosis. We estimated the proportion of individuals in each stage of the continuum over time and the restricted mean time spent in each stage in the first year following diagnosis. Sub-group estimates were compared using differences.

RESULTS

A total of 420 YLHIV were included. By day 365 following diagnosis, just 23% of individuals had no 90-or-more-day lapse in care and were virally suppressed. Those diagnosed in the UTT era spent less time as ART-naïve (mean difference=-19.3 days; 95% CI: -27.7, -10.9) and more time virally suppressed (mean difference = 17.7; 95% CI: 1.0, 34.4) compared to those diagnosed pre-UTT. Most individuals who were diagnosed in the UTT era and experienced a 90-or-more-day lapse in care disengaged between diagnosis and linkage to care or ART initiation and viral suppression.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of UTT yielded modest improvements in time spent on ART and virally suppressed among South African YLHIV- however, meeting UNAIDS' 95-95-95 targets remains a challenge. Retention in care and re-engagement interventions that can be implemented between diagnosis and linkage to care and between ART initiation and viral suppression (e.g., longitudinal counseling) may be particularly important to improving care outcomes among South African YLHIV in the UTT era.

Adolescent sleep health in Africa: a scoping review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Problematic sleep is a major threat to health and quality of life among adolescents. Hence, to provide directions for research and interventions, there is a need to examine the literature on adolescent sleep health in Africa. However, available studies on adolescent sleep health in Africa have not been properly mapped. Thus, this scoping review aims to investigate the extent and type of available evidence concerning sleep health among adolescents in Africa and to highlight the relationship of adolescent sleep health with adverse mental health outcomes and cardiometabolic risk factors. The review will further highlight areas of agreement and controversies on adolescent sleep health, and identify evidence gaps that require research attention across the continent.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This scoping review will be conducted using Arksey and O'Malley's six-step procedure. Thus, we have prepared this protocol according to the framework for scoping reviews developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute. To identify eligible studies, we will search MEDLINE, Scopus, PsycINFO, AJOL, JSTOR, HINARI and Google Scholar. The review will include all published articles in English, French, Spanish, Portuguese and Italian languages on adolescent sleep health in Africa from the inception of the databases, while relevant information will be extracted from included studies using an adapted data extraction tool. The results will be presented using tables and charts as appropriate.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The scoping review does not require ethical approval because the publications to be used for the review are publicly available and the study does not involve contact with humans or other animals as research participants. Furthermore, clinical records will not be used for the study. Upon completion, findings from the study will be disseminated through presentations at scientific meetings and publication in a relevant peer-reviewed journal.

SCOPING REVIEW REGISTRATION

Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/5sjwq/).

Is this pill an antibiotic or a painkiller? Improving the identification of oral antibiotics for better use

In this Viewpoint, we discuss how the identification of oral antibiotics and their distinction from other commonly used medicines can be challenging for consumers, suppliers, and health-care professionals. There is a large variation in the names that people use to refer to antibiotics and these often relate to their physical appearance, although antibiotics come in many different physical presentations. We also reflect on how the physical appearance of medicine influences health care and public health by affecting communication between patients and health-care professionals, dispensing , medicine use, and the public understanding of health campaigns. Furthermore, we report expert and stakeholder consultations on improving the identification of oral antibiotics and discuss next steps towards a new identification system for antibiotics. We propose to use the physical appearance as a tool to support and nudge awareness about antibiotics and their responsible use.

Improvements in Hypertension Control in the Rural Longitudinal HAALSI Cohort of South African Adults Aged 40 and Older, From 2014 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Over half of the South African adults aged 45 years and older have hypertension but its effective management along the treatment cascade (awareness, treatment, and control) remains poorly understood.

METHODS

We compared the prevalence of all stages of the hypertension treatment cascade in the rural HAALSI cohort of older adults at baseline and after four years of follow-up using household surveys and blood pressure data. Hypertension was a mean systolic blood pressure >140 mm Hg or diastolic pressure >90 mm Hg, or current use of anti-hypertension medication. Control was a mean blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg. The effects of sex and age on the treatment cascade at follow-up were assessed. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to estimate prevalence ratios along the treatment cascade at follow-up.

RESULTS

Prevalence along the treatment cascade increased from baseline (B) to follow-up (F): awareness (64.4% vs. 83.6%), treatment (49.7% vs. 73.9%), and control (22.8% vs. 41.3%). At both time points, women had higher levels of awareness (B: 70.5% vs. 56.3%; F: 88.1% vs. 76.7%), treatment (B: 55.9% vs. 41.55; F: 79.9% vs. 64.7%), and control (B: 26.5% vs. 17.9%; F: 44.8% vs. 35.7%). Prevalence along the cascade increased linearly with age for everyone. Predictors of awareness included being female, elderly, or visiting a primary health clinic three times in the previous 3 months, and the latter two also predicted hypertension control.

CONCLUSIONS

There were significant improvements in awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension from baseline to follow-up and women fared better at all stages, at both time points.

Diabetes care cascade and associated factors in 10 700 middle-aged adults in four sub-Saharan African countries: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

We investigated progression through the care cascade and associated factors for people with diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa to identify attrition stages that may be most appropriate for targeted intervention.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Community-based study in four sub-Saharan African countries.

PARTICIPANTS

10 700 individuals, aged 40-60 years.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was the diabetes cascade of care defined as the age-adjusted diabetes prevalence (self-report of diabetes, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7 mmol/L or random plasma glucose ≥11.1 mmol/L) and proportions of those who reported awareness of having diabetes, ever having received treatment for diabetes and those who achieved glycaemic control (FPG <7.2 mmol/L). Secondary outcome measures were factors associated with having diabetes and being aware of the diagnosis.

RESULTS

Diabetes prevalence was 5.5% (95% CI 4.4% to 6.5%). Approximately half of those with diabetes were aware (54%; 95% CI 50% to 58%); 73% (95% CI 67% to 79%) of aware individuals reported ever having received treatment. However, only 38% (95% CI 30% to 46%) of those ever having received treatment were adequately controlled. Increasing age (OR 1.1; 95% CI 1.0 to 1.1), urban residence (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.6 to 3.5), hypertension (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.5 to 2.4), family history of diabetes (OR 3.9; 95% CI 3.0 to 5.1) and measures of central adiposity were associated with higher odds of having diabetes. Increasing age (OR 1.1; 95% CI 1.0 to 1.1), semi-rural residence (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.1 to 5.7), secondary education (OR 2.4; 95% CI 1.2 to 4.9), hypertension (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.0 to 2.4) and known HIV positivity (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.2 to 4.4) were associated with greater likelihood of awareness of having diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

There is attrition at each stage of the diabetes care cascade in sub-Saharan Africa. Public health strategies should target improving diagnosis in high-risk individuals and intensifying therapy in individuals treated for diabetes.

The path between socioeconomic inequality and cognitive function: A mediation analysis based on the HAALSI cohort in rural South Africa

Background

Socioeconomic position (SEP) strongly predicts late-life cognitive health, yet the pathways between SEP and cognitive function remain unclear. This study assessed whether and to what extent the association between SEP and cognitive function in the adult population in rural South Africa is mediated by some health conditions, behavioral factors, and social capital factors.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, we used data from the 2014–15 “Health and Aging Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa” (HAALSI) cohort, including 5,059 adults aged 40+ years from the Agincourt sub-district in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. SEP, the independent variable, was measured based on ownership of household goods. Cognitive function, the dependent variable, was assessed using questions related to time orientation and immediate and delayed word recall. We used the multiple-mediation analysis on 4125 individuals with complete values on all variables to assess the mediating roles of health conditions (hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and disability), behavioral factors (leisure physical activity, alcohol consumption, and tobacco smoking), and social capital factors (community's willingness to help, trust, sense of safety, and social network contact) in the association between SEP and cognitive function.

Results

Compared to adults in the poorest wealth quintile, those in the richest wealth quintile had better cognition (β = 0.903, p &lt; 0.001). The mediation analysis revealed that health conditions mediated 20.7% of the total effect of SEP on cognitive function. In comparison, 3.3% was mediated by behavioral factors and only 0.7% by social capital factors. In the multiple-mediator model, 17.9% of the effect of SEP on cognitive function was jointly mediated by health conditions, behavioral factors, and social capital factors.

Conclusion

Low socioeconomic position is a significant factor associated with poor cognitive function among adults aged 40 years and above in South Africa. Health conditions mainly mediate the effects between SEP and cognitive function. Therefore, actions to prevent and control chronic health conditions can serve as the entry point for intervention to prevent poor cognitive function among people with low socioeconomic status.

Validity of Self-Report for Ascertaining HIV Status Among Circular Migrants and Permanent Residents in South Africa: A Cross-Sectional, Population-Based Analysis

While expanded HIV testing is needed in South Africa, increasing accurate self-report of HIV status is an essential parallel goal in this highly mobile population. If self-report can ascertain true HIV-positive status, persons with HIV (PWH) could be linked to life-saving care without the existing delays required by producing medical records or undergoing confirmatory testing, which are especially burdensome for the country's high prevalence of circular migrants. We used Wave 1 data from The Migration and Health Follow-Up Study, a representative adult cohort, including circular migrants and permanent residents, randomly sampled from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in a rural area of Mpumalanga Province. Within the analytic sample (n = 1,918), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of self-report were calculated with dried blood spot (DBS) HIV test results as the standard. Among in-person participants (n = 2,468), 88.8% consented to DBS-HIV testing. HIV prevalence was 25.3%. Sensitivity of self-report was 43.9% (95% CI: 39.5-48.5), PPV was 93.4% (95% CI: 89.5-96.0); specificity was 99.0% (95% CI: 98.3-99.4) and NPV was 83.9% (95% CI: 82.8-84.9). Self-report of an HIV-positive status was predictive of true status for both migrants and permanent residents in this high-prevalence setting. Persons who self-reported as living with HIV were almost always truly positive, supporting a change to clinical protocol to immediately connect persons who say they are HIV-positive to ART and counselling. However, 56% of PWH did not report as HIV-positive, highlighting the imperative to address barriers to disclosure.

Significant Improvement in Blood Pressure Levels Among Older Adults With Hypertension in Rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing an epidemiologic transition from infectious diseases to cardiovascular diseases. From 2014 to 2019, sociodemographic surveillance was performed in a large cohort in rural South Africa.

METHODS

Disease prevalence and incidence were calculated using inverse probability weights. Poisson regression was used to identify disease predictors. The percentage of individuals with controlled (<140/90 mm Hg) versus uncontrolled hypertension was compared between 2014 and 2019.

RESULTS

Compared with 2014 (n=5059), study participants in 2019 (n=4176) had similar rates of obesity (mean body mass index, 27.5±10.0 versus 27.0±6.5) but higher smoking (9.1% versus 11.5%) and diabetes (11.1% versus 13.9%). There was no significant increase in hypertension prevalence (58.4% versus 59.8%; age adjusted, 64.3% versus 63.3%), and there was a significant reduction in mean systolic blood pressure (138.0 versus 128.5 mm Hg; P<0.001). Among hypertensive individuals who reported medication use in 2014 and 2019 (n=796), the proportion with controlled hypertension on medication increased from 44.5% to 62.3%. Hypertension incidence was 6.2 per 100 person-years, and age was the only independent predictor. Among normotensive individuals in 2014 (n=2257), 15.2% developed hypertension by 2019, with the majority already controlled on medications by 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

The hypertension prevalence and incidence are plateauing in this aging cohort. There was a statistically and clinically significant decline in mean blood pressure and a substantial increase in individuals with controlled hypertension on medication. The prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors did not decrease over time, suggesting that the blood pressure decrease is likely due to increased medication access and adherence, promoted by local health systems.

Delayed circadian rhythms in older Africans living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)

The increasing number of people living with human immunodeficiency virus, HIV, (PLWH) have an elevated incidence of risk for noncommunicable comorbidities, the aetiology of which remains incompletely understood. While sleep disturbances are often reported in PLWH, it is unknown to what extent they relate to changes in the circadian and/or sleep homeostatic processes. We studied the relationship between sleep characteristics, circadian phase, and HIV status in older adults from the HAALSI (Health and Ageing in Africa: a Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa) subsample of the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa (n = 187, 36 human immunodeficiency virus positive [HIV+], age: 66.7 ± 11.5 years, range 45-93 years), where HIV prevalence is high and (in contrast to the global north) does not associate significantly with potentially confounding behavioural differences. In participants with valid actigraphy data (n = 172), regression analyses adjusted for age and sex indicated that HIV+ participants had slightly later sleep onset (β = .16, p = .039), earlier sleep offset times (β = -.16, p = .049) and shorter total sleep times (β = -.20, p = .009) compared to the HIV negative (HIV-) participants. In a subset of participants (n = 51, 11 HIV+), we observed a later dim light melatonin onset (DLMO) in HIV+ (21:16 ± 01:47) than in HIV- (20:06 ± 00:58) participants (p = .006). This substantial difference remained when adjusted for age and sex (β = 1.21; p = .006). In 36 participants (6 HIV+) with DLMO and actigraphy data, median phase angle of entrainment was -6 min in the HIV+ group and +1 h 25 min in the HIV- group. DLMO time correlated with sleep offset (ρ = 0.47, p = .005) but not sleep onset (ρ = -0.086, p = .623). Collectively, our data suggest that the sleep phase occurred earlier than what would be biologically optimal among the HIV+ participants. This is the first report of a mistimed circadian phase in PLWH, which has important potential implications for their health and well-being, especially given the well-established relationships between circadian asynchrony and sleep deprivation with poorer health outcomes.

Intimate partner violence is associated with cytomegalovirus among young women in rural South Africa: An HPTN 068 analysis

ABSTRACTStressful life circumstances (e.g. violence and poverty) have been associated with elevated biomarkers, including C-reactive protein (CRP), cytomegalovirus (CMV), and herpes simplex virus type-1 (HSV-1), among older adults in high-income settings. Yet, it remains unknown whether these relationships exist among younger populations in resource-limited settings. We therefore utilised a cohort of 1,279 adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) from the HIV Prevention Trials Network 068 study in rural South Africa to examine the associations between 6 hypothesized stressors (intimate partner violence (IPV), food insecurity, depression, socioeconomic status (SES), HIV, childhood violence) and 3 biomarkers that were measured using dried blood spots (CRP, CMV, and HSV-1). Ordinal logistic regression estimated the lagged and cross-sectional associations between each stressor and each biomarker. IPV was cross-sectionally associated with elevated CMV (OR = 2.45, 95% CI = 1.05,5.72), while low SES was cross-sectionally associated with reduced CMV (OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.58,0.93). AGYW with HIV had elevated biomarkers cross-sectionally (CRP: OR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.08,2.09; CMV: OR = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.31,2.63; HSV-1: OR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.17,2.41) and in a lagged analysis. The association between violence and CMV could help explain how violence results in stress and subsequently worse health among AGYW; however, additional research is needed to disentangle the longitudinal nature of IPV and stress.

Digital delivery of behavioural activation therapy to overcome depression and facilitate social and economic transitions of adolescents in South Africa (the DoBAt study): protocol for a pilot randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Scalable psychological treatments to address depression among adolescents are urgently needed. This is particularly relevant to low-income and middle-income countries where 90% of the world's adolescents live. While digital delivery of behavioural activation (BA) presents a promising solution, its feasibility, acceptability and effectiveness among adolescents in an African context remain to be shown.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This study is a two-arm single-blind individual-level randomised controlled pilot trial to assess the feasibility, acceptability and initial efficacy of digitally delivered BA therapy among adolescents with depression. The intervention has been coproduced with adolescents at the study site. The study is based in the rural northeast of South Africa in the Bushbuckridge subdistrict of Mpumalanga province. A total of 200 adolescents with symptoms of mild to moderately severe depression on the Patient Health Questionnaire Adolescent Version will be recruited (1:1 allocation ratio). The treatment group will receive BA therapy via a smartphone application (the Kuamsha app) supported by trained peer mentors. The control group will receive an enhanced standard of care. The feasibility and acceptability of the intervention will be evaluated using a mixed methods design, and signals of the initial efficacy of the intervention in reducing symptoms of depression will be determined on an intention-to-treat basis. Secondary objectives are to pilot a range of cognitive, mental health, risky behaviour and socioeconomic measures; and to collect descriptive data on the feasibility of trial procedures to inform the development of a further larger trial.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been approved by the University of the Witwatersrand Human Research Ethics Committee (MED20-05-011) and the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee (OxTREC 34-20). Study findings will be published in scientific open access peer-reviewed journals, presented at scientific conferences and communicated to participants, their caregivers, public sector officials and other relevant stakeholders.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS

This trial was registered on 19 November 2020 with the South African National Clinical Trials Registry (DOH-27-112020-5741) and the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR202206574814636).

Antiretroviral therapy and aging as resources for managing and resisting HIV-related stigma in rural South Africa

The widespread roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa has contributed to a large population of adults aging with HIV. However, little is known about how HIV-related stigma interacts with aging in the ART era. This study uses in-depth interviews with middle-aged and older South Africans living with HIV to explore stigma-related experiences and response strategies. Participants describe a persistence of stigma which requires the deployment of a range of common and age-based stigma management and resistance strategies. We find that participants minimize their exposure to stigma through selective disclosure of their HIV status; neutralize HIV-related stigma through comparisons to chronic illnesses common among older adults, and deflect stigma through asserting an ART-adherent identity and othering younger non-adherent adults. Overall, our study highlights the roles of ART and aging as resources for managing and resisting HIV-related stigma.

The relationship between depression symptoms and academic performance among first-year undergraduate students at a South African university: a cross-sectional study

Background:

South African universities face a challenge of low throughput rates, with most students failing to complete their studies within the minimum regulatory time. Literature has begun to investigate the contribution of well-being, including mental health, with depression among students being one of the most common mental disorders explored. However, locally relevant research exploring associations between depression and academic performance has been limited. This research hypothesizes that the presence of depression symptoms, when controlling for key socio-demographic factors, has an adverse impact on student academic outcomes and contributes to the delay in the academic progression of students.

Methods:

The study used a cross-sectional design. Data were collected in 2019 from first-time, first-year undergraduate students using a self-administered online questionnaire. In total, 1,642 students completed the survey. The Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) was used to screen for depression symptoms. Data on students’ academic performance were obtained from institutional records. Bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to examine associations between depression symptoms and academic performance.

Results:

Most participants (76%) successfully progressed (meeting the requirements to proceed to the second year of university study). Of the participants, 10% displayed symptoms of severe depression. The likelihood of progression delay (not meeting the academic requirements to proceed to the second year of university study) increased with the severity of depression symptoms. Moderate depression symptoms nearly doubled the adjusted odds of progression delay (aOR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.30-3.00, p = 0.001). The likelihood of progression delay was nearly tripled by moderate severe depression symptoms (aOR = 2.70, 95% CI:1.70–4.36, p < 0.001) and severe depression symptoms (aOR = 2.59, 95% CI:1.54–4.36, p < 0.001). The model controlled for field of study, financial aid support as well as sex and race.

Conclusion:

Higher levels of depression symptoms among first-year university students are associated with a greater likelihood of progression delay and may contribute to the low throughput rates currently seen in South African universities. It is important for students, universities and government departments to recognize student mental wellness needs and how these can be met.

A community mobilisation intervention to improve engagement in HIV testing, linkage to care, and retention in care in South Africa: a cluster-randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Community mobilisation, engaging communities in a process to collectively enact change, could improve HIV testing and care engagement. In South Africa, current rates fall below those needed for epidemic control. We assessed whether community mobilisation increased HIV testing, linkage to care, and retention in care over time in intervention relative to control communities.

METHODS

We conducted a cluster-randomised controlled trial in villages in the Agincourt sub-district of the rural Mpumalanga Province in South Africa. 15 villages were randomly assigned to either a community mobilisation intervention engaging residents to address social barriers to HIV testing and treatment (intervention arm) or to a control arm using balanced randomisation. Villages were eligible if they had been fully enumerated in 2014, had not been included in previous mobilisation activities, and included over 500 permanent adult residents aged 18-49 years. Primary outcomes included quarterly rates of HIV testing, linkage to care, and retention in care documented from health facility records among residents of the intervention and control communities over the 3-year study period. Intention-to-treat analyses employed generalised estimating equations stratified by sex. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02197793.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 1, 2015, and July 31, 2018, residents in eight intervention communities (n=20 544 residents) and seven control communities (n=17 848) contributed data; 92 residents contributed to both arms. Among men, HIV testing increased quarterly by 12·1% (relative change [RC] 1·121, 95% CI 1·099 to 1·143, p<0·0001) in the intervention communities and 9·5% (1·095, 1·075 to 1·114, p=0·011) in the control communities; although increases in testing were greater in the intervention villages, differences did not reach significance (exponentiated interaction coefficient 1·024, 95% CI 0·997 to 1·052, p=0·078). Among women, HIV testing increased quarterly by 10·6% (RC 1·106, 95% CI 1·097 to 1·114, p<0·0001) in the intervention communities and 9·3% (1·093, 1·084 to 1·102, p=0·053) in the control communities; increases were greater in intervention communities (exponentiated interaction coefficient 1·012, 95% CI 1·001 to 1·023, p=0·043). Quarterly linkage increased significantly among women in the intervention communities (RC 1·013, 95% CI 1·002 to 1·023, p=0·018) only. Quarterly linkage fell among men in both arms, but decreased significantly among men in the control communities (0·977, 0·954 to 1·002, p=0·043). Quarterly retention fell among women in both arms; however, reductions were tempered among women in the intervention communities (exponentiated interaction coefficient 1·003, 95% CI <1·000 to 1·006, p=0·062). Retention fell significantly among men in both arms with difference in rates of decline.

INTERPRETATION

Community mobilisation was associated with modest improvements in select trial outcomes. The sum of these incremental, quarterly improvements achieved by addressing social barriers to HIV care engagement can impact epidemic control. However, achieving optimal impacts will probably require integrated efforts addressing both social barriers through community mobilisation and provision of improved service delivery.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Mental Health, and United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through Right to Care and Project SOAR.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in rural South Africa: Deepening understanding to increase uptake and access

Background

To date, COVID-19 vaccine coverage in the African region falls far too short of global goals. Increasing vaccination rates requires understanding barriers to vaccination so that effective interventions that sensitively and effectively address barriers to vaccination can be implemented.

Methods

To assess COVID-19 vaccination levels and identify major barriers to vaccine uptake we conducted a population-based, cross-sectional survey among 1662 adults 18 and older from August 25 to October 29 2021 in the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) area, Mpumalanga, South Africa.

Results

Half of participants reported receiving a COVID-19 vaccine (50.4%) with 41.1% being fully vaccinated and 9.3% being partially vaccinated; 49.6% were unvaccinated. More women than men were vaccinated (55.5% vs 42.8%, P < 0.001), and older age groups were more likely to be vaccinated than younger age groups (P < 0.001). Among the unvaccinated, 69.0% planned to get vaccinated as soon as possible, while 14.7% reported definitely not wanting the vaccine. Major barriers to vaccination included lacking information on eligibility (12.3%) or where to get vaccinated (13.0%), concerns about side effects (12.5%), and inconvenient hours and locations for vaccination (11.0%). Confidence in the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines was higher among those vaccinated than unvaccinated (75.3% vs 51.2%, 75.8% vs 51.0%, both P < 0.001, respectively).

Conclusions

Increasing vaccination in South Africa beyond current levels will require a concerted effort to address concerns around vaccine safety and increase confidence in vaccine efficacy. Clarifying eligibility and ensuring access to vaccines at times and places that are convenient to younger populations, men, and other vulnerable groups is necessary.

Meta-analysis of sub-Saharan African studies provides insights into genetic architecture of lipid traits

Genetic associations for lipid traits have identified hundreds of variants with clear differences across European, Asian and African studies. Based on a sub-Saharan-African GWAS for lipid traits in the population cross-sectional AWI-Gen cohort (N = 10,603) we report a novel LDL-C association in the GATB region (P-value=1.56 × 10⁻⁸). Meta-analysis with four other African cohorts (N = 23,718) provides supporting evidence for the LDL-C association with the GATB/FHIP1A region and identifies a novel triglyceride association signal close to the FHIT gene (P-value =2.66 × 10⁻⁸). Our data enable fine-mapping of several well-known lipid-trait loci including LDLR, PMFBP1 and LPA. The transferability of signals detected in two large global studies (GLGC and PAGE) consistently improves with an increase in the size of the African replication cohort. Polygenic risk score analysis shows increased predictive accuracy for LDL-C levels with the narrowing of genetic distance between the discovery dataset and our cohort. Novel discovery is enhanced with the inclusion of African data.

Genetic associations and polygenic scores for lipid traits have low transferability to African individuals. Here, the authors perform a large sub-Sarahan African lipid GWAS and find that larger datasets and better global representation in discovery GWAS help to bridge this gap.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence after Third Wave of Infections, South Africa

By November 2021, after the third wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections in South Africa, seroprevalence was 60% in a rural community and 70% in an urban community. High seroprevalence before the Omicron variant emerged may have contributed to reduced illness severity observed in the fourth wave.

The impact of COVID-19 on a cohort of origin residents and internal migrants from South Africa's rural northeast

South Africa has a large temporary migrant population with people commonly moving to metropolitan areas to access employment, while maintaining links with their rural origin households. The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted patterns of movement, livelihoods and health seeking, and the effects on internal, temporary migrants are unclear. Using longitudinal data spanning 2018 to 2020, this paper employs descriptive statistics and regression analyses to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on a cohort of 2971 persons aged 18–40 at baseline, both residents and migrants, from a rural district in South Africa's northeast. In contrast with 2018–2019, in 2020 the share of rural residents initiating a migration decreased by 11 percentage points (p<0.001), while the share of temporary migrants returning to origin households increased by 5 percentage points (p<0.001). Study participants who were continuing migrants reported fewer job losses in comparison with rural-stayers, while 76% of return migrants who were employed in 2019 were no longer employed in 2020. Further, among those who did not experience food shortages in 2019, rural-stayers had 1.42 times the odds of continuing migrants of suffering shortages in 2020. In 2020 health service use in the cohort decreased overall, with return migrants having still lower odds of utilising health services. The results highlight the differential geographic and socioeconomic manifestations of the pandemic, with worsening socioeconomic circumstances observed for rural-staying (disproportionately female) and returning populations, while continuing migrants fared relatively better. It is vital that a COVID-19 response considers the potentially heterogeneous impact of the pandemic on mobile and stable populations. Policy responses may include targeting migrants at their destinations in health promotion of COVID-19 messaging, and strengthening health care and social support in origin communities in recognition that these areas receive return migrants into their catchment population.

•

COVID-19 socioeconomic and mobility impacts can be illuminated with longitudinal data.

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Amidst COVID (2020) fewer migrations initiated, and more returns to origin than 2019.

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Strong association found between retained employment and continuing migration.

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Rural-stayers had worsening socioeconomic outcomes compared with continuing migrants.

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Health service use reduced between 2019 and 2020, moreso among return migrants.

Twin epidemics: the effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019

Background

Sub-Saharan African settings are experiencing dual epidemics of HIV and hypertension. We investigate effects of each condition on mortality and examine whether HIV and hypertension interact in determining mortality.

Methods

Data come from the 2010 Ha Nakekela population-based survey of individuals ages 40 and older (1,802 women; 1,107 men) nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System in rural South Africa, which provides mortality follow-up from population surveillance until mid-2019. Using discrete-time event history models stratified by sex, we assessed differential mortality risks according to baseline measures of HIV infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure.

Results

During the 8-year follow-up period, mortality was high (477 deaths). Survey weighted estimates are that 37% of men (mortality rate 987.53/100,000, 95% CI: 986.26 to 988.79) and 25% of women (mortality rate 937.28/100,000, 95% CI: 899.7 to 974.88) died. Over a quarter of participants were living with HIV (PLWH) at baseline, over 50% of whom had unsuppressed viral loads. The share of the population with a systolic blood pressure of 140mm Hg or higher increased from 24% at ages 40-59 to 50% at ages 75-plus and was generally higher for those not living with HIV compared to PLWH. Men and women with unsuppressed viral load had elevated mortality risks (men: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.23, 95% CI: 2.21 to 4.71, women: aOR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.27 to 3.30). There was a weak, non-linear relationship between systolic blood pressure and higher mortality risk. We found no significant interaction between systolic blood pressure and HIV status for either men or women (p>0.05).

Conclusions

Our results indicate that HIV and elevated blood pressure are acting as separate, non-interacting epidemics affecting high proportions of the older adult population.

PLWH with unsuppressed viral load were at higher mortality risk compared to those uninfected. Systolic blood pressure was a mortality risk factor independent of HIV status. As antiretroviral therapy becomes more widespread, further longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand how the dynamics of increased longevity and multimorbidity among people living with both HIV and high blood pressure, as well as the emergence of COVID-19, may alter these patterns.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-12791-z.

Short- and long-read metagenomics of urban and rural South African gut microbiomes reveal a transitional composition and undescribed taxa

Human gut microbiome research focuses on populations living in high-income countries and to a lesser extent, non-urban agriculturalist and hunter-gatherer societies. The scarcity of research between these extremes limits our understanding of how the gut microbiota relates to health and disease in the majority of the world's population. Here, we evaluate gut microbiome composition in transitioning South African populations using short- and long-read sequencing. We analyze stool from adult females living in rural Bushbuckridge (n = 118) or urban Soweto (n = 51) and find that these microbiomes are taxonomically intermediate between those of individuals living in high-income countries and traditional communities. We demonstrate that reference collections are incomplete for characterizing microbiomes of individuals living outside high-income countries, yielding artificially low beta diversity measurements, and generate complete genomes of undescribed taxa, including Treponema, Lentisphaerae, and Succinatimonas. Our results suggest that the gut microbiome of South Africans does not conform to a simple "western-nonwestern" axis and contains undescribed microbial diversity.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and associated risk in rural South Africa: a population-based cohort study

Background: In Africa, true prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unknown, and associated clinical and genetic risk factors remain understudied. This population-based cohort study aimed to investigate CKD prevalence and associated risk factors in rural South Africa. Methods: A total 2021 adults aged 20-79 years were recruited between 2017-2018 from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga, South Africa. The following were collected: sociodemographic, anthropometric, and clinical data; venous blood samples for creatinine, hepatitis B serology; DNA extraction; spot urine samples for dipstick testing and urine albumin: creatinine ratio (UACR) measurement. Point-of-care screening determined prevalent HIV infection, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia. DNA was used to test for apolipoprotein L1 ( APOL1) kidney risk variants. Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria were used to diagnose CKD as low eGFR (<60mL/min/1.73m ²) and /or albuminuria (UACR ≥ 3.0mg/mmol) confirmed with follow up screening after at least three months. eGFR was calculated using the CKD-EPI _(creatinine) equation 2009 with no ethnicity adjustment. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model CKD risk. Results: The WHO age-adjusted population prevalence of CKD was 6.7% (95% CI 5.4 - 7.9), mostly from persistent albuminuria. In the fully adjusted model, APOL1 high-risk genotypes (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.3 - 3.4); HIV infection (OR 1.8; 1.1 - 2.8); hypertension (OR 2.8; 95% CI 1.8 - 4.3), and diabetes (OR 4.1; 95% CI 2.0 - 8.4) were risk factors. There was no association with age, sex, level of education, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, or hepatitis B infection. Sensitivity analyses showed that CKD risk factor associations were driven by persistent albuminuria, and not low eGFR. One third of those with CKD did not have any of these risk factors. Conclusions:  In rural South Africa, CKD is prevalent, dominated by persistent albuminuria, and associated with APOL1 high-risk genotypes, hypertension, diabetes, and HIV infection.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and associated risk in rural South Africa: a population-based cohort study

Background: In Africa, true prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unknown, and associated clinical and genetic risk factors remain understudied. This population-based cohort study aimed to investigate CKD prevalence and associated risk factors in rural South Africa. Methods: A total 2021 adults aged 20-79 years were recruited between 2017-2018 from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga, South Africa. The following were collected: sociodemographic, anthropometric, and clinical data; venous blood samples for creatinine, hepatitis B serology; DNA extraction; spot urine samples for dipstick testing and urine albumin: creatinine ratio (UACR) measurement. Point-of-care screening determined prevalent HIV infection, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia. DNA was used to test for apolipoprotein L1 ( APOL1) kidney risk variants. Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria were used to diagnose CKD as low eGFR (<60mL/min/1.73m ²) and /or albuminuria (UACR ≥ 3.0mg/mmol) confirmed with follow up screening after at least three months. eGFR was calculated using the CKD-EPI _(creatinine) equation 2009 with no ethnicity adjustment. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model CKD risk. Results: The WHO age-adjusted population prevalence of CKD was 6.7% (95% CI 5.4 - 7.9), mostly from persistent albuminuria. In the fully adjusted model, APOL1 high-risk genotypes (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.3 - 3.4); HIV infection (OR 1.8; 1.1 - 2.8); hypertension (OR 2.8; 95% CI 1.8 - 4.3), and diabetes (OR 4.1; 95% CI 2.0 - 8.4) were risk factors. There was no association with age, sex, level of education, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, or hepatitis B infection. Sensitivity analyses showed that CKD risk factor associations were driven by persistent albuminuria, and not low eGFR. One third of those with CKD did not have any of these risk factors. Conclusions:  In rural South Africa, CKD is prevalent, dominated by persistent albuminuria, and associated with APOL1 high-risk genotypes, hypertension, diabetes, and HIV infection.

Hypertension incidence among middle-aged and older adults: findings from a 5-year prospective study in rural South Africa, 2010-2015

OBJECTIVES

There is a scarcity of longitudinal cohort studies in sub-Saharan Africa to understand the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease as a basis for intervention. We estimated incident hypertension and associated sociodemographic, health and behavioural risk factors in a population aged 40 years and older over a 5-year period.

DESIGN

We assessed the association between incident hypertension and sociodemographic, health and behavioural factors using Poisson regression. We adjusted for non-response in 2015 using inverse probability sampling weights from a logistic regression including sex and age at baseline.

SETTING

Rural South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

We used a population-based cohort of normotensive adults in 2010 who were aged 40 years and older at retest in 2015.

RESULTS

Of 676 individuals completing baseline and 5-year follow-up, there were 193 incident cases of hypertension. The overall hypertension incidence rate was 8.374/100 person-years. In multivariable analyses, those who became hypertensive were more likely to be older, have a high waist circumference (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.557, 95% CI: 1.074 to 2.259) and be employed (IRR: 1.579, 95% CI: 1.071 to 2.329) at baseline. Being HIV positive and not on antiretroviral therapy at baseline was associated with lower risk of incident hypertension.

CONCLUSIONS

Over a 5-year period, 29% of respondents developed hypertension. Given the high burden of hypertension in South Africa, continued longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand the complex interplay of non-communicable and infectious diseases and their underlying and modifiable risk factors to inform public health prevention strategies and programmes.

Systematic Review of Genomic Associations with Blood Pressure and Hypertension in Populations with African-Ancestry

Background: Despite hypertension being highly prevalent in individuals with African-ancestry, they are under-represented in large genome-wide association studies. Inclusion of African participants is essential to better understand genetic associations with blood pressure-related traits in Africans. This systematic review critically evaluates existing studies with African-ancestry participants and identifies knowledge gaps.

Methods: We followed the PRISMA protocol, HuGE Review handbook to identify literature on original research, in English, on genetic association studies for blood pressure-related traits (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, pulse and mean-arterial pressure, and hypertension) in populations with African-ancestry (January 2007 to April 2020). A narrative synthesis of the evidence was conducted.

Results: Twelve studies with African-ancestry participants met the eligibility criteria, within which 10 studies met the additional genetic association data criteria (i.e., reporting only on African-ancestry participants). Across the five blood pressure-related traits, 26 genome-wide significantly associated SNPs were identified, with six SNPs linked to more than one trait, illustrating pleiotropic effects. Among the SNP associations, 12 had not previously been described in non-African studies.

Discussion: The limited number of relevant studies highlights the dearth of genomic association studies on participants with African-ancestry, especially those located within Africa. Variations in study methodology, participant inclusion, adjustment for covariates (e.g., antihypertensive medication) and relatively small sample sizes make comparisons challenging, and have resulted in fewer significant associations, compared to large European studies. Regional variation in the prevalence and associated risk factors of hypertension across Africa makes a compelling argument to develop African cohorts to facilitate large genomic studies, using African-centric arrays. Data harmonisation and comparable study designs, such as described in the H3Africa CHAIR initiative, provide a good example toward achieving this goal.

Other relevant information: SS and J-TB were funded by the South African National Research Foundation. MR is a South African Research Chair in Genomics and Bioinformatics of African populations hosted by the University of the Witwatersrand, funded by the Department of Science and Innovation, and administered by the NRF. This review was registered at PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42020179221) and OSF (registration DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/QT2HA).

Modeling Cash Plus Other Psychosocial and Structural Interventions to Prevent HIV Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women in South Africa (HPTN 068)

Poverty alleviation programs can reduce HIV incidence but may have greater impacts when combined with other psychosocial interventions. We modeled the change in HIV incidence among South African adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) associated with combining a cash transfer (the South African Child Support Grant (CSG)) with other structural and behavioral interventions. We modeled observational data from the HPTN 068 study where 2328 HIV negative AGYW (13–20 years) were followed for 4 years. In a Monte Carlo simulation based on this cohort (N = 10,000), CSG receipt was not independently associated with HIV incidence. Providing the CSG combined with increasing caregiver care and reducing adolescent depression had the largest reduction in HIV incidence with the fewest number of combined interventions (RD − 3.0%; (95% CI − 5.1%, − 0.9%). Combining a monthly grant with interventions to increase caregiver care and reduce adolescent depression could substantially reduce HIV incidence above the provision of cash alone.

Modeling Combination Interventions to Prevent Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Adolescent Girls and Young Women in South Africa (HIV Prevention Trials Network 068)

BACKGROUND

Combination interventions may be an effective way to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in adolescent girls and young women. However, current studies are not designed to understand which specific interventions and combinations will be most effective. We estimate the possible impacts of interventions on a combination of factors associated with HIV.

METHODS

We used the g-formula to model interventions on combinations of HIV risk factors to identify those that would prevent the most incident HIV infections, including low school attendance, intimate partner violence, depression, transactional sex, and age-disparate partnerships. We used data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 068 study in rural South Africa from 2011 to 2017. We estimated HIV incidence under a potential intervention that reduced each risk factor and compared this to HIV incidence under the current distribution of these risk factors.

RESULTS

Although many factors had strong associations with HIV, potential intervention estimates did not always suggest large reductions in HIV incidence because the prevalence of risk factors was low. When modeling combination effects, an intervention to increase schooling, decrease depression, and decease transactional sex showed the largest reduction in incident infection (risk difference, -1.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.7% to -.2%), but an intervention on only transactional sex and depression still reduced HIV incidence by -1.3% (95% CI, -2.6% to -.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

To achieve the largest reductions in HIV, both prevalence of the risk factor and strength of association with HIV must be considered. Additionally, intervening on more risk factors may not necessarily result in larger reductions in HIV incidence.

Older Adults Vastly Overestimate Both HIV Acquisition Risk and HIV Prevalence in Rural South Africa

Perceptions of HIV acquisition risk and prevalence shape sexual behavior in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We used data from the Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa baseline survey. Data were collected through home-based interviews of 5059 people ≥ 40 years old. We elicited information on perceived risk of HIV acquisition and HIV prevalence among adults  ≥ 15 and ≥ 50 years old. We first describe these perceptions in key subgroups and then compared them to actual estimates for this cohort. We then evaluated the relationship between sociodemographic characteristics and accurate perceptions of prevalence in regression models. Finally, we explored differences in behavioral characteristics among those who overestimated risk compared to those who underestimated or accurately estimated risk. Compared to the actual HIV acquisition risk of < 1%, respondents vastly overestimated this risk: 35% (95% CI: 32-37) and 34% (95% CI: 32-36) for men and women, respectively. Respondents overestimated HIV prevalence at 53% (95% CI: 52-53) for those ≥ 15 years old and 48% (95% CI: 48-49) for those ≥ 50 years old. True values were less than half of these estimates. There were few significant associations between demographic characteristics and accuracy. Finally, high overestimators of HIV prevalence tested themselves less for HIV compared to mild overestimators and accurate reporters. More than 30 years into the HIV epidemic, older people in a community with hyperendemic HIV in SSA vastly overestimate both HIV acquisition risk and prevalence. These misperceptions may lead to fatalism and reduced motivation for prevention efforts, possibly explaining the continued high HIV incidence in this community.

Multimorbidity and mortality in an older, rural black South African population cohort with high prevalence of HIV findings from the HAALSI Study

OBJECTIVES

Multimorbidity is associated with mortality in high-income countries. Our objective was to investigate the relationship between multimorbidity (≥2 of the following chronic medical conditions: hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, anaemia, HIV, angina, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, alcohol dependence) and all-cause mortality in an older, rural black South African population. We further investigated the relationship between HIV multimorbidity (HIV as part of the multimorbidity cluster) and mortality, while testing for the effect of frailty in all models.

DESIGN

Population cohort study.

SETTING

Agincourt subdistrict of Mpumalanga province, South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

4455 individuals (54.7% female), aged ≥40 years (median age 61 years, IQR 52-71) and resident in the study area.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was time to death and the secondary outcome measure was likelihood of death within 2 years of the initial study visit. Mortality was determined during annual population surveillance updates.

RESULTS

3157 individuals (70.9%) had multimorbidity; 29% of these had HIV. In models adjusted for age and sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity was associated with greater risk of death (women: HR 1.72; 95% CI: 1.18 to 2.50; men: HR 1.46; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.95) and greater odds of dying within 2 years (women: OR 2.34; 95% CI: 1.32 to 4.16; men: OR 1.51; 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.24). HIV multimorbidity was associated with increased risk of death compared with non-HIV multimorbidity in men (HR 1.93; 95% CI: 1.05 to 3.54), but was not statistically significant in women (HR 1.85; 95% CI: 0.85 to 4.04); when detectable, HIV viral loads were higher in men (p=0.021). Further adjustment for frailty slightly attenuated the associations between multimorbidity and mortality risk (women: HR 1.55; 95% CI: 1.06 to 2.26; men: HR 1.36; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.82), but slightly increased associations between HIV multimorbidity and mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Multimorbidity is associated with mortality in this older black South African population. Health systems which currently focus on HIV should be reorganised to optimise identification and management of other prevalent chronic diseases.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in a Rural and Urban Household Cohort during First and Second Waves of Infections, South Africa, July 2020-March 2021

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections may be underestimated because of limited access to testing. We measured SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in South Africa every 2 months during July 2020–March 2021 in randomly selected household cohorts in 2 communities. We compared seroprevalence to reported laboratory-confirmed infections, hospitalizations, and deaths to calculate infection–case, infection–hospitalization, and infection–fatality ratios in 2 waves of infection. Post–second wave seroprevalence ranged from 18% in the rural community children <5 years of age, to 59% in urban community adults 35–59 years of age. The second wave saw a shift in age distribution of case-patients in the urban community (from persons 35–59 years of age to persons at the extremes of age), higher attack rates in the rural community, and a higher infection–fatality ratio in the urban community. Approximately 95% of SARS-CoV-2 infections were not reported to national surveillance.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in a Rural and Urban Household Cohort during First and Second Waves of Infections, South Africa, July 2020-March 2021

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections may be underestimated because of limited access to testing. We measured SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in South Africa every 2 months during July 2020-March 2021 in randomly selected household cohorts in 2 communities. We compared seroprevalence to reported laboratory-confirmed infections, hospitalizations, and deaths to calculate infection-case, infection-hospitalization, and infection-fatality ratios in 2 waves of infection. Post-second wave seroprevalence ranged from 18% in the rural community children <5 years of age, to 59% in urban community adults 35-59 years of age. The second wave saw a shift in age distribution of case-patients in the urban community (from persons 35-59 years of age to persons at the extremes of age), higher attack rates in the rural community, and a higher infection-fatality ratio in the urban community. Approximately 95% of SARS-CoV-2 infections were not reported to national surveillance.

Impact of obstructive sleep apnea on cardiometabolic health in a random sample of older adults in rural South Africa: building the case for the treatment of sleep disorders in underresourced settings

STUDY OBJECTIVES

The association between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and increased cardiometabolic risk (CMR) has been well documented in higher-income countries. However, OSA and its association with CMR have not yet been investigated, based on objective measures, in southern Africa. We measured polysomnography-derived sleep characteristics, OSA prevalence, and its association with cardiometabolic diseases in a rural, low-income, African-ancestry sample of older adult participants in South Africa.

METHODS

Seventy-five participants completed the study. Body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and HIV status were determined. A continuous CMR score was calculated using waist circumference, random glucose, high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, and mean arterial blood pressure. Sleep architecture, arousal index, and apnea-hypopnea index for detection of the OSA (apnea-hypopnea index ≥ 15 events/h) were assessed by home-based polysomnography. Associations between CMR score and age, sex, socioeconomic status, apnea-hypopnea index, and total sleep time were investigated by multivariable analysis.

RESULTS

In our sample (53 women, age 66.1 ± 10.7 years, 12 HIV+), 60.7% of participants were overweight/obese, 61.3% were hypertensive, and 29.3% had undiagnosed OSA. Being older (P = .02) and having a higher body mass index (P = .02) and higher waist circumference (P < .01) were associated with OSA. Apnea-hypopnea index severity (β = 0.011; P = .01) and being a woman (β = 0.369; P = .01) were independently associated with a higher CMR score in socioeconomic status- and age-adjusted analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In this South African community with older adults with obesity and hypertension, OSA prevalence is alarming and associated with CMR. We show the feasibility of detecting OSA in a rural setting using polysomnography. Our results highlight the necessity for actively promoting health education and systematic screening and treatment of OSA in this population to prevent future cardiovascular morbidity, especially among women.

Associations Between Key Psychosocial Stressors and Viral Suppression and Retention in Care Among Youth with HIV in Rural South Africa

Despite improvements in access to antiretroviral treatment over the past decade, sub-optimal HIV care outcomes persist among youth with HIV (YWH) in rural South Africa. Psychosocial stressors could impede improved HIV treatment outcomes within this population. We linked self-reported psychosocial health and demographic data from a cross-sectional survey conducted among YWH aged 12-24 in rural South Africa to individual medical record data, including facility visit history and viral load measurements. Poisson regression with robust standard errors was used to estimate the associations between five psychosocial stressors- heightened depressive symptoms (Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression scale scores ≥ 16), lower social support (Medical Outcomes Social Support Scale scores ≤ 38), lower resilience (Conner-Davidson Resilience Scale scores ≤ 73), lower self-esteem (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale scores ≤ 21), and higher perceived stress (Sheldon Cohen Perceived Stress Scale scores ≥ 10)- and viral non-suppression (viral load ≥ 400 copies/mL) and loss to care (no documented clinic visits within the 90 days prior to survey), separately. A total of 359 YWH were included in this analysis. The median age of study participants was 21 (interquartile range: 16-23), and most were female (70.2%), single (82.4%), and attending school (54.7%). Over a quarter of participants (28.1%) had heightened depressive symptoms. Just 16.2% of all participants (n = 58) were lost to care at the time of survey, while 32.4% (n = 73) of the 225 participants with viral load data were non-suppressed. The prevalence of non-suppression in individuals with lower self-esteem was 1.71 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 2.61) times the prevalence of non-suppression in those with higher self-esteem after adjustment. No meaningful association was observed between heightened depressive symptoms, lower social support, lower resilience, and higher perceived stress and viral non-suppression or loss to care in adjusted analyses. Retention in care and viral suppression among YWH in rural South Africa are below global targets. Interventions aimed at improving viral suppression among YWH should incorporate modules to improve participant's self-esteem as low self-esteem is associated with viral non-suppression in this setting. Future studies should longitudinally explore the joint effects of co-occurring psychosocial stressors on HIV care outcomes in YWH and assess meaningful differences in these effects by age, gender, and route of transmission.

Associations of Father and Adult Male Presence with First Pregnancy and HIV Infection: Longitudinal Evidence from Adolescent Girls and Young Women in Rural South Africa (HPTN 068)

This study, a secondary analysis of the HPTN 068 randomized control trial, aimed to quantify the association of father and male presence with HIV incidence and first pregnancy among 2533 school-going adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in rural South Africa participating in the trial between March 2011 and April 2017. Participants' ages ranged from 13-20 years at study enrollment and 17-25 at the post-intervention visit. HIV and pregnancy incidence rates were calculated for each level of the exposure variables using Poisson regression, adjusted for age using restricted quadratic spline variables, and, in the case of pregnancy, also adjusted for whether the household received a social grant. Our study found that AGYW whose fathers were deceased and adult males were absent from the household were most at risk for incidence of first pregnancy and HIV (pregnancy: aIRR = 1.30, Wald 95% CI 1.05, 1.61, Wald chi-square p = 0.016; HIV: aIRR = 1.27, Wald 95% CI 0.84, 1.91, Wald chi-square p = 0.263) as compared to AGYW whose biological fathers resided with them. For AGYW whose fathers were deceased, having other adult males present as household members seemed to attenuate the incidence (pregnancy: aIRR = 0.92, Wald 95% CI 0.74, 1.15, Wald chi-square p = 0.462; HIV: aIRR = 0.90, Wald 95% CI 0.58, 1.39, Wald chi-square p = 0.623) such that it was similar, and therefore not statistically significantly different, to AGYW whose fathers were present in the household.

Alcohol Consumption and Sexual Risk Behavior in an Aging Population in Rural South Africa

We sought to characterize the relationship between alcohol consumption and sexual risk-taking in an aging population in rural South Africa. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using baseline data from the Health and Ageing in Africa: a Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community (HAALSI) cohort. We elicited information on sexual risk behavior and self-reported frequency of alcohol consumption among 5059 adults  ≥ 40 years old. Multivariable models showed that more frequent alcohol consumption is associated with a higher number of sexual partners (β: 1.38, p < .001) and greater odds of having sex for money (OR: 42.58, p < .001) in older adults in South Africa. Additionally, daily drinkers were more likely to have sex without a condom (OR: 2.67, p = .01). Older adults who drank more alcohol were more likely to engage in sexual risk-taking. Behavioral interventions to reduce alcohol intake should be considered to reduce STI and HIV transmission.

Concordance between fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c in the diagnosis of diabetes in black South African adults: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

We investigated concordance between haemoglobin A1c (HbA₁c)-defined diabetes and fasting plasma glucose (FPG)-defined diabetes in a black South African population with a high prevalence of obesity.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Rural South African population-based cohort.

PARTICIPANTS

765 black individuals aged 40-70 years and with no history of diabetes.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was concordance between HbA_1c-defined diabetes and FPG-defined diabetes. Secondary outcome measures were differences in anthropometric characteristics, fat distribution and insulin resistance (measured using Homoeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR)) between those with concordant and discordant HbA_1c/FPG classifications and predictors of HbA_1c variance.

RESULTS

The prevalence of HbA_1c-defined diabetes was four times the prevalence of FPG-defined diabetes (17.5% vs 4.2%). Classification was discordant in 15.7% of participants, with 111 individuals (14.5%) having HbA_1c-only diabetes (kappa 0.23; 95% CI 0.14 to 0.31). Median body mass index, waist and hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, subcutaneous adipose tissue and HOMA-IR in participants with HbA_1c-only diabetes were similar to those in participants who were normoglycaemic by both biomarkers and significantly lower than in participants with diabetes by both biomarkers (p<0.05). HOMA-IR and fat distribution explained additional HbA_1c variance beyond glucose and age only in women.

CONCLUSIONS

Concordance was poor between HbA_1c and FPG in diagnosis of diabetes in black South Africans, and participants with HbA_1c-only diabetes phenotypically resembled normoglycaemic participants. Further work is necessary to determine which of these parameters better predicts diabetes-related morbidities in this population and whether a population-specific HbA_1c threshold is necessary.

A cross-sectional study measuring contact patterns using diaries in an urban and a rural community in South Africa, 2018

BACKGROUND

Describing contact patterns is crucial to understanding infectious disease transmission dynamics and guiding targeted transmission mitigation interventions. Data on contact patterns in Africa, especially South Africa, are limited. We measured and compared contact patterns in a rural and urban community, South Africa. We assessed participant and contact characteristics associated with differences in contact rates.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study nested in a prospective household cohort study. We interviewed participants to collect information on persons in contact with for one day. We described self-reported contact rates as median number people contacted per day, assessed differences in contact rates based on participant characteristics using quantile regression, and used a Poisson model to assess differences in contact rates based on contact characteristics within age groups. We also calculated cumulative person hours in contact within age groups at different locations.

RESULTS

We conducted 535 interviews (269 rural, 266 urban), with 17,252 contacts reported. The overall contact rate was 14 (interquartile range (IQR) 9-33) contacts per day. Those ≤18 years had higher contact rates at the rural site (coefficient 17, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 10-23) compared to the urban site, for those aged 14-18 years (13, 95%CI 3-23) compared to < 7 years. No differences were observed for adults. There was a strong age-based mixing, with age groups interacting more with similar age groups, but also interaction of participants of all ages with adults. Children aged 14-18 years had the highest cumulative person hours in contact (116.3 rural and 76.4 urban).

CONCLUSIONS

Age played an important role in the number and duration of contact events, with children at the rural site having almost double the contact rate compared to the urban site. These contact rates can be utilized in mathematical models to assess transmission dynamics of infectious diseases in similar communities.

From "Secret" to "Sensitive Issue": Shifting Ideas About HIV Disclosure Among Middle-Aged and Older Rural South Africans in the Era of Antiretroviral Treatment

OBJECTIVE

As HIV shifts from "death sentence" to "chronic condition," disclosure of HIV status to intimate partners and family is a significant component of both prevention and treatment adherence. While disclosure is closely considered in many studies, few examine middle-aged and older persons' (age 40+) perspectives or practices. We trace older rural South Africans' views on HIV disclosure to their partners and family members in a high prevalence community over a period of extensive antiretroviral treatment (ART) rollout.

METHODS

Community focus group discussions (FGD) conducted in 2013 and 2018 show shifts in older persons' thinking about HIV disclosure.

FINDINGS

Our FGD participants saw fewer negative consequences of disclosure in 2018 than in 2013, and highlighted positive outcomes including building trust (partners) as well as greater support for medication collection and adherence (family).

DISCUSSION

Particularly as the epidemic ages in South Africa and globally, tracing changes in older persons' views on disclosure is an important step in developing messaging that could enhance treatment as prevention and ART adherence.

Examining the relationship between physical and sexual violence and psychosocial health in young people living with HIV in rural South Africa

Introduction

Experiences of violence during youth contravene young people’s rights and increase the risk of depression and poor human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care outcomes among youth living with HIV (YLWH). Intervention targets for mitigating the negative psychosocial effects of violence are needed, particularly in areas like rural South Africa where violence remains pervasive and mental healthcare is limited. This study aims to quantify the associations between physical and sexual violence and depressive symptoms in YLWH in rural South Africa and explore the modification of these associations by key measures of psychosocial well‐being.

Methods

We conducted a cross‐sectional survey among 362 YLWH ages 12 to 24 in rural South Africa to ascertain participants’ history of physical and sexual violence, current depressive symptoms (Center for Epidemiological Studies‐Depression Scale) and levels of social support (Medical Outcomes Social Support Scale), resilience (Conner‐Davidson Resilience Scale) and self‐esteem (Rosenberg Self‐Esteem Scale). Log‐binomial regression was used to estimate the association between history of physical or sexual violence and clinically meaningful depressive symptoms (scores ≥16). Effect measure modification by high versus low resilience, social support and self‐esteem was assessed using likelihood ratio tests (α = 0.20).

Results

A total of 334 individuals with a median age of 21 (interquartile range: 16 to 23) were included in this analysis. Most participants were female (71.3%), single (81.4%) and attending school (53.0%). Ninety‐four participants (28.1%) reported a history of physical or sexual violence and 92 individuals (27.5%) had clinically meaningful depressive symptoms. Meaningful depressive symptoms were significantly higher among participants with a history of physical or sexual violence as compared to those with no history of violence (adjusted prevalence ratio: 2.01; 95% CI: 1.43, 2.83). However, this association was significantly modified by social support (p = 0.04) and self‐esteem (p = 0.02).

Conclusions

In this setting, the prevalence of meaningful depressive symptoms was significantly higher among YLWH with a history of physical or sexual violence as compared to those without a history of violence. However, higher levels of self‐esteem or social support appeared to mitigate this association. Programmes to improve self‐esteem and social support for youth have the potential to minimize depressive symptoms in YLWH who have experienced physical or sexual violence.

Bayesian belief network modelling of household food security in rural South Africa

Background

Achieving food security remains a key challenge for public policy throughout the world. As such, understanding the determinants of food insecurity and the causal relationships between them is an important scientific question. We aim to construct a Bayesian belief network model of food security in rural South Africa to act as a tool for decision support in the design of interventions.

Methods

Here, we use data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) study area, which is close to the Mozambique border in a low-income region of South Africa, together with Bayesian belief network (BBN) methodology to address this question.

Results

We find that a combination of expert elicitation and learning from data produces the most credible set of causal relationships, as well as the greatest predictive performance with 10-fold cross validation resulting in a Briers score 0.0846, information reward of 0.5590, and Bayesian information reward of 0.0057. We report the resulting model as a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that can be used to model the expected effects of complex interventions to improve food security. Applications to sensitivity analyses and interventional simulations show ways the model can be applied as tool for decision support for human experts in deciding on interventions.

Conclusions

The resulting models can form the basis of the iterative generation of a robust causal model of household food security in the Agincourt HDSS study area and in other similar populations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10938-y.