Abrupt climate change

Biological CO2 conversion to acetate in subsurface coal-sand formation using a high-pressure reactor system

Geological CO₂ sequestration in unmineable subsurface oil/gas fields and coal formations has been proposed as a means of reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. However, the feasibility of injecting CO₂ into subsurface depends upon a variety of geological and economic conditions, and the ecological consequences are largely unpredictable. In this study, we developed a new flow-through-type reactor system to examine potential geophysical, geochemical and microbiological impacts associated with CO₂ injection by simulating in-situ pressure (0–100 MPa) and temperature (0–70°C) conditions. Using the reactor system, anaerobic artificial fluid and CO₂ (flow rate: 0.002 and 0.00001 ml/min, respectively) were continuously supplemented into a column comprised of bituminous coal and sand under a pore pressure of 40 MPa (confined pressure: 41 MPa) at 40°C for 56 days. 16S rRNA gene analysis of the bacterial components showed distinct spatial separation of the predominant taxa in the coal and sand over the course of the experiment. Cultivation experiments using sub-sampled fluids revealed that some microbes survived, or were metabolically active, under CO_2-rich conditions. However, no methanogens were activated during the experiment, even though hydrogenotrophic and methylotrophic methanogens were obtained from conventional batch-type cultivation at 20°C. During the reactor experiment, the acetate and methanol concentration in the fluids increased while the δ¹³C_acetate, H₂ and CO₂ concentrations decreased, indicating the occurrence of homo-acetogenesis. 16S rRNA genes of homo-acetogenic spore-forming bacteria related to the genus Sporomusa were consistently detected from the sandstone after the reactor experiment. Our results suggest that the injection of CO₂ into a natural coal-sand formation preferentially stimulates homo-acetogenesis rather than methanogenesis, and that this process is accompanied by biogenic CO₂ conversion to acetate.

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

The Antarctic Chlamydomonas raudensis: an emerging model for cold adaptation of photosynthesis

Permanently cold habitats dominate our planet and psychrophilic microorganisms thrive in cold environments. Environmental adaptations unique to psychrophilic microorganisms have been thoroughly described; however, the vast majority of studies to date have focused on cold-adapted bacteria. The combination of low temperatures in the presence of light is one of the most damaging environmental stresses for a photosynthetic organism: in order to survive, photopsychrophiles (i.e. photosynthetic organisms adapted to low temperatures) balance temperature-independent reactions of light energy capture/transduction with downstream temperature-dependent metabolic processes such as carbon fixation. Here, we review research on photopsychrophiles with a focus on an emerging model organism, Chlamydomonas raudensis UWO241 (UWO241). UWO241 is a psychrophilic green algal species and is a member of the photosynthetic microbial eukaryote community that provides the majority of fixed carbon for ice-covered lake ecosystems located in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. The water column exerts a range of environmental stressors on the phytoplankton community that inhabits this aquatic ecosystem, including low temperatures, extreme shade of an unusual spectral range (blue-green), high salinity, nutrient deprivation and extremes in seasonal photoperiod. More than two decades of work on UWO241 have produced one of our most comprehensive views of environmental adaptation in a cold-adapted, photosynthetic microbial eukaryote.

Climate change in Europe and effects on thermal resources for crops

Atmospheric variables play a fundamental role in driving man-managed ecosystems and more specifically in agro-ecosystems, determining the quantity and quality of crop production. On the other hand, climate variability can be seen as the superimposition of gradual and abrupt changes. This paper is focused on European surface air temperature in the period 1951-2010. Analysis of this dataset identified breakpoints that define two homogeneous sub-periods: 1951-1987 and 1988-2010. Thermal resources for crops were analyzed adopting a "normal heat hours" approach. Computation highlighted a general increase in thermal resources in the European continent for crop groups II and III (C3 and C4 plants adapted to high or moderate temperatures), while a decline of thermal resources for crop group I (cold adapted C3) was highlighted in the Mediterranean area. The climate variability justifies a change in the potential latitudinal limits of different groups of crops, representing a fundamental step for crop adaptation to climate change.

Determining environmental causes of biological effects: the need for a mechanistic physiological dimension in conservation biology

The emerging field of Conservation Physiology links environmental change and ecological success by the application of physiological theory, approaches and tools to elucidate and address conservation problems. Human activity has changed the natural environment to a point where the viability of many ecosystems is now under threat. There are already many descriptions of how changes in biological patterns are correlated with environmental changes. The next important step is to determine the causative relationship between environmental variability and biological systems. Physiology provides the mechanistic link between environmental change and ecological patterns. Physiological research, therefore, should be integrated into conservation to predict the biological consequences of human activity, and to identify those species or populations that are most vulnerable.

Role of the Bering Strait on the hysteresis of the ocean conveyor belt circulation and glacial climate stability

Abrupt climate transitions, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, occurred frequently during the last glacial period, specifically from 80-11 thousand years before present, but were nearly absent during interglacial periods and the early stages of glacial periods, when major ice-sheets were still forming. Here we show, with a fully coupled state-of-the-art climate model, that closing the Bering Strait and preventing its throughflow between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans during the glacial period can lead to the emergence of stronger hysteresis behavior of the ocean conveyor belt circulation to create conditions that are conducive to triggering abrupt climate transitions. Hence, it is argued that even for greenhouse warming, abrupt climate transitions similar to those in the last glacial time are unlikely to occur as the Bering Strait remains open.

Role of the Bering Strait on the hysteresis of the ocean conveyor belt circulation and glacial climate stability

Abrupt climate transitions, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, occurred frequently during the last glacial period, specifically from 80-11 thousand years before present, but were nearly absent during interglacial periods and the early stages of glacial periods, when major ice-sheets were still forming. Here we show, with a fully coupled state-of-the-art climate model, that closing the Bering Strait and preventing its throughflow between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans during the glacial period can lead to the emergence of stronger hysteresis behavior of the ocean conveyor belt circulation to create conditions that are conducive to triggering abrupt climate transitions. Hence, it is argued that even for greenhouse warming, abrupt climate transitions similar to those in the last glacial time are unlikely to occur as the Bering Strait remains open.

Scaling effects and spatio-temporal multilevel dynamics in epileptic seizures

Epileptic seizures are one of the most well-known dysfunctions of the nervous system. During a seizure, a highly synchronized behavior of neural activity is observed that can cause symptoms ranging from mild sensual malfunctions to the complete loss of body control. In this paper, we aim to contribute towards a better understanding of the dynamical systems phenomena that cause seizures. Based on data analysis and modelling, seizure dynamics can be identified to possess multiple spatial scales and on each spatial scale also multiple time scales. At each scale, we reach several novel insights. On the smallest spatial scale we consider single model neurons and investigate early-warning signs of spiking. This introduces the theory of critical transitions to excitable systems. For clusters of neurons (or neuronal regions) we use patient data and find oscillatory behavior and new scaling laws near the seizure onset. These scalings lead to substantiate the conjecture obtained from mean-field models that a Hopf bifurcation could be involved near seizure onset. On the largest spatial scale we introduce a measure based on phase-locking intervals and wavelets into seizure modelling. It is used to resolve synchronization between different regions in the brain and identifies time-shifted scaling laws at different wavelet scales. We also compare our wavelet-based multiscale approach with maximum linear cross-correlation and mean-phase coherence measures.

"Evolution Canyon," a potential microscale monitor of global warming across life

Climatic change and stress is a major driving force of evolution. The effects of climate change on living organisms have been shown primarily on regional and global scales. Here I propose the "Evolution Canyon" (EC) microscale model as a potential life monitor of global warming in Israel and the rest of the world. The EC model reveals evolution in action at a microscale involving biodiversity divergence, adaptation, and incipient sympatric speciation across life from viruses and bacteria through fungi, plants, and animals. The EC consists of two abutting slopes separated, on average, by 200 m. The tropical, xeric, savannoid, "African" south-facing slope (AS = SFS) abuts the forested "European" north-facing slope (ES = NFS). The AS receives 200-800% higher solar radiation than the ES. The ES represents the south European forested maquis. The AS and ES exhibit drought and shade stress, respectively. Major adaptations on the AS are because of solar radiation, heat, and drought, whereas those on the ES relate to light stress and photosynthesis. Preliminary evidence suggests the extinction of some European species on the ES and AS. In Drosophila, a 10-fold higher migration was recorded in 2003 from the AS to ES. I advance some predictions that could be followed in diverse species in EC. The EC microclimatic model is optimal to track global warming at a microscale across life from viruses and bacteria to mammals in Israel, and in additional ECs across the planet.

The effect of climate on acoustic signals: does atmospheric sound absorption matter for bird song and bat echolocation?

The divergence of signals along ecological gradients may lead to speciation. The current research tests the hypothesis that variation in sound absorption selects for divergence in acoustic signals along climatic gradients, which has implications for understanding not only diversification, but also how organisms may respond to climate change. Because sound absorption varies with temperature, humidity, and the frequency of sound, individuals or species may vary signal structure with changes in climate over space or time. In particular, signals of lower frequency, narrower bandwidth, and longer duration should be more detectable in environments with high sound absorption. Using both North American wood warblers (Parulidae) and bats of the American Southwest, this work found evidence of associations between signal structure and sound absorption. Warbler species with higher mean absorption across their range were more likely to have narrow bandwidth songs. Bat species found in higher absorption habitats were more likely to have lower frequency echolocation calls. In addition, bat species changed echolocation call structure across seasons, using longer duration, lower frequency calls in the higher absorption rainy season. These results suggest that signals may diverge along climatic gradients due to variation in sound absorption, although the effects of absorption are modest.

Arctic climate tipping points

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.

Climate change and tropical biodiversity: a new focus

Considerable efforts are focused on the consequences of climate change for tropical rainforests. However, potentially the greatest threats to tropical biodiversity (synergistic interactions between climatic changes and human land use) remain understudied. Key concerns are that aridification could increase the accessibility of previously non-arable or remote lands, elevate fire impacts and exacerbate ecological effects of habitat disturbance. The growing climatic change literature often fails to appreciate that, in coming decades, climate-land use interactions might be at least as important as abiotic changes per se for the fate of tropical biodiversity. In this review, we argue that protected area expansion along key ecological gradients, regulation of human-lit fires, strategic forest-carbon financing and re-evaluations of agricultural and biofuel subsidies could ameliorate some of these synergistic threats.

Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification

Many physiological responses in present-day coral reefs to climate change are interpreted as consistent with the imminent disappearance of modern reefs globally because of annual mass bleaching events, carbonate dissolution, and insufficient time for substantial evolutionary responses. Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change, and potential rates of adaptation to rapid warming supports an alternative scenario in which reef degradation occurs with greater temporal and spatial heterogeneity than current projections suggest. Reducing uncertainty in projecting coral reef futures requires improved understanding of past responses to rapid climate change; physiological responses to interacting factors, such as temperature, acidification, and nutrients; and the costs and constraints imposed by acclimation and adaptation.

Early evaluation of coastal nutrient over-enrichment: new procedures and indicators

Recent studies have provided compelling evidence for an accelerated anthropogenic impact on coastal systems, resulting in intense inputs of materials and nutrients from the continent. This has led scientists and policymakers to encourage the implementation of monitoring programmes, which have resulted in the multiplicity of datasets. However surprisingly, only a few attempts have been made to couple observations with statistical and mathematical tools to detect, as soon as the data become available perturbations in coastal systems. Here, we propose new mathematical procedures to evaluate the state of a system, based on the building of relative reference state and indicators of nutrient over-enrichment. The techniques were tested in some French coastal systems using data from the programme SOMLIT. Applied to this dataset, the multivariate procedures rapidly identified and evaluated anthropogenic nutrient anomalies from the continent on three sites (Wimereux, Roscoff and Villefranche-sur-Mer) from 1997 onwards.

When ecosystem services crash: preparing for big, fast, patchy climate change

Assessments of adaptation options generally focus on incremental, homogeneous ecosystem responses to climate even though climate change impacts can be big, fast, and patchy across a region. Regional drought-induced tree die-off in semiarid woodlands highlights how an ecosystem crash fundamentally alters most ecosystem services and poses management challenges. Building on previous research showing how choice of location is linked to adaptive capacity and vulnerability, we developed a framework showing how the options for retaining desired ecosystem services in the face of sudden crashes depend on how portable the service is and whether the stakeholder is flexible with regard to the location where they receive their services. Stakeholders using portable services, or stakeholders who can move to other locations to obtain services, may be more resilient to ecosystem crashes. Our framework suggests that entering into cooperative networks with regionally distributed stakeholders is key to building resilience to big, fast, patchy crashes.

Identification of growth increments in the shell of the bivalve mollusc Arctica islandica using backscattered electron imaging

Annually resolved growth increments in the shell of the bivalve mollusc Arctica islandica have previously been used in combination with geochemical measurements to successfully construct high-resolution proxy records of past marine environmental conditions. However, to ensure the accuracy of these paleoenvironmental reconstructions it is essential that the annual growth series of increments within the examined shells are reliably identified, and can be distinguished from spurious lines caused by nonannual perturbations such as those resulting from storm disturbance. The current methods used for identifying the growth increment series are sometimes compromised because of ambiguity that results from the employed preparation methods. Here it is shown that backscattered electron imaging of polished shell cross sections may be used to clearly discriminate between the two compositionally and structurally distinct increments that comprise 1 year of outer shell growth. This method, involving minimal specimen preparation, is likely to be primarily useful as a validation technique of particular value in cases where increment identification using existing methods is difficult or ambiguous.

Stratigraphy of the Anthropocene

The Anthropocene, an informal term used to signal the impact of collective human activity on biological, physical and chemical processes on the Earth system, is assessed using stratigraphic criteria. It is complex in time, space and process, and may be considered in terms of the scale, relative timing, duration and novelty of its various phenomena. The lithostratigraphic signal includes both direct components, such as urban constructions and man-made deposits, and indirect ones, such as sediment flux changes. Already widespread, these are producing a significant 'event layer', locally with considerable long-term preservation potential. Chemostratigraphic signals include new organic compounds, but are likely to be dominated by the effects of CO(2) release, particularly via acidification in the marine realm, and man-made radionuclides. The sequence stratigraphic signal is negligible to date, but may become geologically significant over centennial/millennial time scales. The rapidly growing biostratigraphic signal includes geologically novel aspects (the scale of globally transferred species) and geologically will have permanent effects.

A stochastic, evolutionary model for range shifts and richness on tropical elevational gradients under Quaternary glacial cycles

Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles repeatedly forced thermal zones up and down the slopes of mountains, at all latitudes. Although no one doubts that these temperature cycles have left their signature on contemporary patterns of geography and phylogeny, the relative roles of ecology and evolution are not well understood, especially for the tropics. To explore key mechanisms and their interactions in the context of chance events, we constructed a geographical range-based, stochastic simulation model that incorporates speciation, anagenetic evolution, niche conservatism, range shifts and extinctions under late Quaternary temperature cycles along tropical elevational gradients. In the model, elevational patterns of species richness arise from the differential survival of founder lineages, consolidated by speciation and the inheritance of thermal niche characteristics. The model yields a surprisingly rich variety of realistic patterns of phylogeny and biogeography, including close matches to a variety of contemporary elevational richness profiles from an elevational transect in Costa Rica. Mountaintop extinctions during interglacials and lowland extinctions at glacial maxima favour mid-elevation lineages, especially under the constraints of niche conservatism. Asymmetry in temperature (greater duration of glacial than of interglacial episodes) and in lateral area (greater land area at low than at high elevations) have opposing effects on lowland extinctions and the elevational pattern of species richness in the model--and perhaps in nature, as well.

Emerging issues in the Pacific Basin

This review provides a snapshot of some key environmental health issues that will provide ongoing challenges for the Pacific Basin region in the coming decades. It is clear that climate change as well as the rapidly increasing production of environmental pollutants are significant emerging environmental health issues. To date, research in these areas is limited, and the consequences of potential changes in disease vector distribution, disease outbreaks associated with climate change-induced severe weather events, and the consequences of chronic exposure to engineered nanoparticles and persistent organic pollutants (POPs), particularly in children, remain to be determined. Clearly, any progress in (i) predicting the outcomes of potential environmental health issues in the future, (ii) identifying subpopulations (at local, national, and international levels) that are at risk, and (iii) establishing measures to limit the impact of these issues in terms of public health, will require a coordinated effort from scientists, epidemiologists, monitoring agencies, governments, and aid agencies.

Breaking the routine: individual Cory's shearwaters shift winter destinations between hemispheres and across ocean basins

There is growing evidence that migratory species are particularly vulnerable to rapid environmental changes arising from human activity. Species are expected to vary in their capacity to respond to these changes: long-distance migrants and those lacking variability in migratory traits are probably at considerable disadvantage. The few studies that have assessed the degree of plasticity in behaviour of marine animals suggest that fidelity to non-breeding destinations is usually high. In the present study, we evaluated individual flexibility in migration strategy of a highly pelagic seabird, the Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea. Geolocation data from 72 different migrations, including 14 birds that were tracked for more than one non-breeding season, showed a remarkable capacity to change winter destinations between years. Although some birds exhibited high site fidelity, others shifted from the South to North Atlantic, from the western to eastern South Atlantic, and from the Atlantic to Indian Ocean. Individuals also showed flexibility in stopover behaviour and migratory schedule. Although their K-selected life-history strategy has the disadvantage that the chances of microevolution are slight if circumstances alter rapidly, these results suggest that Cory's shearwaters may be in a better position than many other long-distance migrants to face the consequences of a changing environment.

An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress

Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature T(W), is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. T(W) never exceeds 31 degrees C. Any exceedence of 35 degrees C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 degrees C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11-12 degrees C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 degrees C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record.

Genetic and historic evidence for climate-driven population fragmentation in a top cetacean predator: the harbour porpoises in European water

Recent climate change has triggered profound reorganization in northeast Atlantic ecosystems, with substantial impact on the distribution of marine assemblages from plankton to fishes. However, assessing the repercussions on apex marine predators remains a challenging issue, especially for pelagic species. In this study, we use Bayesian coalescent modelling of microsatellite variation to track the population demographic history of one of the smallest temperate cetaceans, the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in European waters. Combining genetic inferences with palaeo-oceanographic and historical records provides strong evidence that populations of harbour porpoises have responded markedly to the recent climate-driven reorganization in the eastern North Atlantic food web. This response includes the isolation of porpoises in Iberian waters from those further north only approximately 300 years ago with a predominant northward migration, contemporaneous with the warming trend underway since the ‘Little Ice Age’ period and with the ongoing retreat of cold-water fishes from the Bay of Biscay. The extinction or exodus of harbour porpoises from the Mediterranean Sea (leaving an isolated relict population in the Black Sea) has lacked a coherent explanation. The present results suggest that the fragmentation of harbour distribution range in the Mediterranean Sea was triggered during the warm ‘Mid-Holocene Optimum’ period (approx. 5000 years ago), by the end of the post-glacial nutrient-rich ‘Sapropel’ conditions that prevailed before that time.

Deriving dynamical models from paleoclimatic records: application to glacial millennial-scale climate variability

A method for systematically deriving simple nonlinear dynamical models from ice-core data is proposed. It offers a tool to integrate models and theories with paleoclimatic data. The method is based on the unscented Kalman filter, a nonlinear extension of the conventional Kalman filter. Here, we adopt the abstract conceptual model of stochastically driven motion in a potential that allows for two distinctly different states. The parameters of the model-the shape of the potential and the noise level-are estimated from a North Greenland ice-core record. For the glacial period from 70 to 20 ky before present, a potential is derived that is asymmetric and almost degenerate. There is a deep well corresponding to a cold stadial state and a very shallow well corresponding to a warm interstadial state.

New measures of multimodality for the detection of a ghost stochastic resonance

Large-amplitude (10-15 K) millennial-duration warming events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, repeatedly occurred in the North Atlantic region during ice ages. So far, the trigger of these events is not known. To explain their recurrence pattern, a ghost stochastic resonance (GSR) scenario has been suggested, i.e., a dynamical scenario in which the events represent the subharmonic response to centennial-scale solar forcing plus noise. According to this hypothesis a multimodal phase distribution of the events is expected, which should be tested on the basis of climate records by means of time series analysis. A major obstacle in these tests, however, is the need of a statistical measure of regularity that can distinguish between a random occurrence of DO events and a GSR scenario. Here we construct and compare three new measures of phase multimodality. In a Monte Carlo simulation with a simple conceptual model of DO events we simulate probability distributions of the measures under both scenarios for realizations of only 11 DO events. Based on these distributions we find that our measures are able to distinguish between a random occurrence and a GSR scenario. We further apply our measures to analyze the recurrence pattern of the last 11 DO events in the North Greenland Ice Core Project deep ice core from Greenland.

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.

Mitochondrial haplogroup U5b3: a distant echo of the epipaleolithic in Italy and the legacy of the early Sardinians

There are extensive data indicating that some glacial refuge zones of southern Europe (Franco-Cantabria, Balkans, and Ukraine) were major genetic sources for the human recolonization of the continent at the beginning of the Holocene. Intriguingly, there is no genetic evidence that the refuge area located in the Italian Peninsula contributed to this process. Here we show, through phylogeographic analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation performed at the highest level of molecular resolution (52 entire mitochondrial genomes), that the most likely homeland for U5b3-a haplogroup present at a very low frequency across Europe-was the Italian Peninsula. In contrast to mtDNA haplogroups that expanded from other refugia, the Holocene expansion of haplogroup U5b3 toward the North was restricted by the Alps and occurred only along the Mediterranean coasts, mainly toward nearby Provence (southern France). From there, approximately 7,000-9,000 years ago, a subclade of this haplogroup moved to Sardinia, possibly as a result of the obsidian trade that linked the two regions, leaving a distinctive signature in the modern people of the island. This scenario strikingly matches the age, distribution, and postulated geographic source of a Sardinian Y chromosome haplogroup (I2a2-M26), a paradigmatic case in the European context of a founder event marking both female and male lineages.

Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system

Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2-4 degrees C), and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 degrees C) relative to year 2000 levels.