Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Pulmonary Arteriovenous Fistulas

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Pulmonary arteriovenous fistulas (PAVFs) are a treatable cause of acute ischemic stroke (AIS), not mentioned in current American Heart/Stroke Association guidelines. PAVFs are recognized as an important complication of hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia.

METHODS

The prevalence of PAVF and hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia among patients admitted with AIS in the United States (2005-2014) was retrospectively studied, utilizing the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database. Clinical factors, morbidity, mortality, and management were compared in AIS patients with and without PAVF/hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia.

RESULTS

Of 4 271 910 patients admitted with AIS, 822 (0.02%) were diagnosed with PAVF. Among them, 106 of 822 (12.9%) were diagnosed with hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia. The prevalence of PAVF per million AIS admissions rose from 197 in 2005 to 368 in 2014 (P_trend, 0.026). Patients with PAVF were younger than AIS patients without PAVF (median age, 57.5 versus 72.5 years), had lower age-adjusted inpatient morbidity (defined as any discharge other than home; 39.6% versus 46.9%), and had lower in-hospital case fatality rates (1.8% versus 5.1%). Multivariate analyses identified the following as independent risk markers (odds ratio [95% CI]) for AIS in patients with PAVF: hypoxemia (8.4 [6.3-11.2]), pulmonary hemorrhage (7.9 [4.1-15.1]), pulmonary hypertension (4.3 [4.1-15.1]), patent foramen ovale (4.2 [3.5-5.1]), epistaxis (3.7 [2.1-6.8]), venous thrombosis (2.6 [1.9-3.6]), and iron deficiency anemia (2 [1.5-2.7]). Patients with and without PAVF received intravenous thrombolytics at a similar rate (5.9% versus 5.8%), but those with PAVF did not receive mechanical thrombectomy (0% versus 0.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Pulmonary arteriovenous fistula-related ischemic stroke represents an important younger demographic with a unique set of stroke risk markers, including treatable conditions such as causal PAVFs and iron deficiency anemia.

Value of a national burden-of-disease study: a comparison of estimates between the Australian Burden of Disease Study 2015 and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Estimates of burden of disease are important for monitoring population health, informing policy and service planning. Burden estimates for the same population can be reported differently by national studies [e.g. the Australian Burden of Disease Study (ABDS) and the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBDS)].

METHODS

Australian ABDS 2015 and GBDS 2017 burden estimates and methods for 2015 were compared. Years of Life Lost (YLL), Years Lived with Disability (YLD) and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) measures were compared for overall burden and 'top 50' causes. Disease-category definitions (based on ICD-10), redistribution algorithms, data sources, disability weights, modelling methods and assumptions were reviewed.

RESULTS

GBDS 2017 estimated higher totals than ABDS 2015 for YLL, YLD and DALY for Australia. YLL differences were mainly driven by differences in the allocation of deaths to disease categories and the redistribution of implausible causes of death. For YLD, the main drivers were data sources, severity distributions and modelling strategies. Most top-50 diseases for DALY had a similar YLL:YLD composition reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in the ABDS and GBDS estimates reflect the different purposes of local and international studies and differences in data and modelling strategies. The GBDS uses all available evidence and is useful for international comparisons. National studies such as the ABDS have the flexibility to meet local needs and often the advantage of access to unpublished data. It is important that all data sources, inputs and models be assessed for quality and appropriateness. As studies evolve, differences should be accounted for through increased transparency of data and methods.

Scaling-up a new socio-mental health service model in Iran to reduce burden of neuropsychiatric disorders: an economic evaluation study

BACKGROUND

The integration of core packages of mental health care into routine primary health care has been introduced as an effective way to achieve universal health coverage in mental health care. Based on the transition of mental health care in Iran, from introducing basic mental health care in PHC to the experience of community-based mental health centers for urban areas, a new socio-mental health service model has been so far proposed. This study aimed to estimate the impact of scaling-up the new socio-mental health model at the national level as well as its associated costs.

METHODS

This study was a cost-consequence analysis following One Health Tool methodology. The data required for the study were collected in the first quarter of the year 2020 with a time horizon from 2020 to 2030. The selected metric for summarizing health effects is healthy life years gained. Resources used in terms of drug and supply, staff salaries and outpatient visits were documented and associated costs were subsequently estimated in order to estimate the average cost of each intervention per case.

RESULTS

The health impacts are calculated in terms of healthy life years gained for 2020-2030, after adjusting the prevalence and incidence rates for each disorder. In total, 1,702,755 healthy life years were expected to be gained. Considering total 1,363,581,654 US dollars cost in base case scenario, each healthy life years gained will cost around 801 US dollars. Based on the WHO criteria for cost-effectiveness threshold, all of the values ranged from 724 to 1119 US dollars obtained through eight different scenarios were considered as cost-effective given the GDP per capita of 5550 US dollars for Iran in 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

Mental health budget in Iran equals to about three percent of total health expenditure while the mental health cost per capita is estimated to be 1.73 US dollar which are relatively low considering the share of the MNS disorders in the national burden of diseases. The results of current study showing the cost of 16.4 US dollar per capita for scaling up this comprehensive mental health service model can convince high-level policy-makers to increase the share of mental health budget accordingly. The present study demonstrated that the cost in this new socio-mental services model is not substantial compared with GDP per capita of Iran.

Strengthening health systems to improve the value of tuberculosis diagnostics in South Africa: A cost and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

In South Africa, replacing smear microscopy with Xpert-MTB/RIF (Xpert) for tuberculosis diagnosis did not reduce mortality and was cost-neutral. The unchanged mortality has been attributed to suboptimal Xpert implementation. We developed a mathematical model to explore how complementary investments may improve cost-effectiveness of the tuberculosis diagnostic algorithm.

METHODS

Complementary investments in the tuberculosis diagnostic pathway were compared to the status quo. Investment scenarios following an initial Xpert test included actions to reduce pre-treatment loss-to-follow-up; supporting same-day clinical diagnosis of tuberculosis after a negative result; and improving access to further tuberculosis diagnostic tests following a negative result. We estimated costs, deaths and disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) averted from provider and societal perspectives. Sensitivity analyses explored the mediating influence of behavioural, disease- and organisational characteristics on investment effectiveness.

FINDINGS

Among a cohort of symptomatic patients tested for tuberculosis, with an estimated active tuberculosis prevalence of 13%, reducing pre-treatment loss-to-follow-up from ~20% to ~0% led to a 4% (uncertainty interval [UI] 3; 4%) reduction in mortality compared to the Xpert scenario. Improving access to further tuberculosis diagnostic tests from ~4% to 90% among those with an initial negative Xpert result reduced overall mortality by 28% (UI 27; 28) at $39.70/ DALY averted. Effectiveness of investment scenarios to improve access to further diagnostic tests was dependent on a high return rate for follow-up visits.

INTERPRETATION

Investing in direct and indirect costs to support the TB diagnostic pathway is potentially highly cost-effective.

Cost-Effectiveness of Improved Hypertension Management in India through Increased Treatment Coverage and Adherence: A Mathematical Modeling Study

Background:

Despite the availability of effective and affordable treatments, only 14% of hypertensive Indians have controlled blood pressure. Increased hypertension treatment coverage (the proportion of individuals initiated on treatment) and adherence (proportion of patients taking medicines as recommended) promise population health gains. However, governments and other payers will not invest in a large-scale hypertension control program unless it is both affordable and effective.

Objective:

To investigate if a national hypertension control intervention implemented across the private and public sector facilities in India could save overall costs of CVD prevention and treatment.

Methods:

We developed a discrete-time microsimulation model to assess the cost-effectiveness of population-level hypertension control intervention in India for combinations of treatment coverage and adherence targets. Input clinical parameters specific to India were obtained from large-scale surveys such as the Global Burden of Disease as well as local clinical trials. Input hypertensive medication cost parameters were based on government contracts. The model projected antihypertensive treatment costs, avoided CVD care costs, changes in disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) and incremental cost per DALY averted (represented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio or ICER) over 20 years.

Results:

Over 20 years, at 70% coverage and adherence, the hypertension control intervention would avert 1.68% DALYs and be cost-saving overall. Increasing adherence (while keeping coverage constant) resulted in greater improvement in cost savings compared to increasing coverage (while keeping adherence constant). Results were most sensitive to the cost of antihypertensive medication, but the intervention remained highly cost-effective under all one-way sensitivity analyses.

Conclusion:

A national hypertension control intervention in India would most likely be budget neutral or cost-saving if the intervention can achieve and maintain high levels of both treatment coverage and adherence.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a universal HIV testing and treatment intervention in Zambia and South Africa: evidence and projections from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial

BACKGROUND

The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial showed that a combination HIV prevention package including universal HIV testing and treatment (UTT) reduced population-level incidence of HIV compared with standard care. However, evidence is scarce on the costs and cost-effectiveness of such an intervention.

METHODS

Using an individual-based model, we simulated the PopART intervention and standard care with antiretroviral therapy (ART) provided according to national guidelines for the 21 trial communities in Zambia and South Africa (for all individuals aged >14 years), with model parameters and primary cost data collected during the PopART trial and from published sources. Two intervention scenarios were modelled: annual rounds of PopART from 2014 to 2030 (PopART 2014-30; as the UNAIDS Fast-Track target year) and three rounds of PopART throughout the trial intervention period (PopART 2014-17). For each country, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) as the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) and cost per HIV infection averted. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were used to indicate the probability of PopART being cost-effective compared with standard care at different thresholds of cost per DALY averted. We also assessed budget impact by projecting undiscounted costs of the intervention compared with standard care up to 2030.

FINDINGS

During 2014-17, the mean cost per person per year of delivering home-based HIV counselling and testing, linkage to care, promotion of ART adherence, and voluntary medical male circumcision via community HIV care providers for the simulated population was US$6·53 (SD 0·29) in Zambia and US$7·93 (0·16) in South Africa. In the PopART 2014-30 scenario, median ICERs for PopART delivered annually until 2030 were $2111 (95% credible interval [CrI] 1827-2462) per HIV infection averted in Zambia and $3248 (2472-3963) per HIV infection averted in South Africa; and $593 (95% CrI 526-674) per DALY averted in Zambia and $645 (538-757) per DALY averted in South Africa. In the PopART 2014-17 scenario, PopART averted one infection at a cost of $1318 (1098-1591) in Zambia and $2236 (1601-2916) in South Africa, and averted one DALY at $258 (225-298) in Zambia and $326 (266-391) in South Africa, when outcomes were projected until 2030. The intervention had almost 100% probability of being cost-effective at thresholds greater than $700 per DALY averted in Zambia, and greater than $800 per DALY averted in South Africa, in the PopART 2014-30 scenario. Incremental programme costs for annual rounds until 2030 were $46·12 million (for a mean of 341 323 people) in Zambia and $30·24 million (for a mean of 165 852 people) in South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Combination prevention with universal home-based testing can be delivered at low annual cost per person but accumulates to a considerable amount when scaled for a growing population. Combination prevention including UTT is cost-effective at thresholds greater than $800 per DALY averted and can be an efficient strategy to reduce HIV incidence in high-prevalence settings.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health, President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Development and Validation of a Computerized Adaptive Assessment Tool for Discrimination and Measurement of Psychotic Symptoms

OBJECTIVE

Time constraints limit the use of measurement-based approaches in research and routine clinical management of psychosis. Computerized adaptive testing (CAT) can reduce administration time, thus increasing measurement efficiency. This study aimed to develop and test the capacity of the CAT-Psychosis battery, both self-administered and rater-administered, to measure the severity of psychotic symptoms and discriminate psychosis from healthy controls.

METHODS

An item bank was developed and calibrated. Two raters administered CAT-Psychosis for inter-rater reliability (IRR). Subjects rated themselves and were retested within 7 days for test-retest reliability. The Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) was administered for convergent validity and chart diagnosis, and the Structured Clinical Interview (SCID) was used to test psychosis discriminant validity.

RESULTS

Development and calibration study included 649 psychotic patients. Simulations revealed a correlation of r = .92 with the total 73-item bank score, using an average of 12 items. Validation study included 160 additional patients and 40 healthy controls. CAT-Psychosis showed convergent validity (clinician: r = 0.690; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.610-0.757; self-report: r = .690; 95% CI: 0.609-0.756), IRR (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = 0.733; 95% CI: 0.611-0.828), and test-retest reliability (clinician ICC = 0.862; 95% CI: 0.767-0.922; self-report ICC = 0.815; 95%CI: 0.741-0.871). CAT-Psychosis could discriminate psychosis from healthy controls (clinician: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.965, 95% CI: 0.945-0.984; self-report AUC = 0.850, 95% CI: 0.807-0.894). The median length of the clinician-administered assessment was 5 minutes (interquartile range [IQR]: 3:23-8:29 min) and 1 minute, 20 seconds (IQR: 0:57-2:09 min) for the self-report.

CONCLUSION

CAT-Psychosis can quickly and reliably assess the severity of psychosis and discriminate psychotic patients from healthy controls, creating an opportunity for frequent remote assessment and patient/population-level follow-up.

Burden of maternal disorders in China from 1990 to 2019: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Efforts to quantify the burden of maternal disorders at the national and provincial levels are valuable for resource allocation and for development and adoption of public health policies.

Methods

Following the methods of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, the prevalence of maternal disorders and the resulting disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability(YLD), deaths, and years of life lost (YLL) at the national and provincial levels in China were examined for the 1990–2019 period. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to estimate the trends of age-standardized rate (ASR) of prevalence, DALYs, death, and YLD due to maternal disorders and its main subcategories from 1990 to 2019.

Findings

In 2019, China had an estimated 0.85 million cases of maternal disorders (95% uncertainty interval: 0.65–1.08 million), with a 73% decline in absolute numbers from 1990 to 2019. The ASR of prevalence, DALYs and death for overall maternal disorders showed decreasing trends in China from 1990 to 2019 with the EAPCs being −3.25(95% confidence interval [CI] = −3.86 to −2.64), −8.07 (95% CI= −9.14 to −6.98), and −7.04 (95% CI= −7.99 to −6.07), respectively. The most pronounced decreases in trends in ASR of prevalence, DALYs and death were observed for maternal hemorrhage. Shandong, Hong Kong, Macao showed no significant trends in ASR of prevalence. Notably, the trends in ASR of prevalence due to maternal hypertensive disorders had been stable in China and most provinces. The trends in ASR of DALYs and death decreased the most in Jiangxi province.

Interpretation

The disease burden of prevalence, DALYs and death for overall maternal disorders decreased significantly in China from 1990 to 2019, however, the trends in ASR of prevalence due to maternal hypertensive disorders had been stable in China and most provinces.

Funding

The study is supported by grants from the Innovative Talent Support Plan of the Medical and Health Technology Project in Zhejiang Province (2021422878), Ningbo Science and Technology Project (202002N3152), Ningbo Health Branding Subject Fund (PPXK2018–02), Sanming Project of Medicine in Shen-zhen (SZSM201803080).

Potential Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Condomless-Sex-Concentrated PrEP in KwaZulu-Natal Accounting for Drug Resistance

INTRODUCTION

Oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the form of tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate/emtricitabine is being implemented in selected sites in South Africa. Addressing outstanding questions on PrEP cost-effectiveness can inform further implementation.

METHODS

We calibrated an individual-based model to KwaZulu-Natal to predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP, with use concentrated in periods of condomless sex, accounting for effects on drug resistance. We consider (1) PrEP availability for adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years and female sex workers, and (2) availability for everyone aged 15-64 years. Our primary analysis represents a level of PrEP use hypothesized to be attainable by future PrEP programs.

RESULTS

In the context of PrEP use in adults aged 15-64 years, there was a predicted 33% reduction in incidence and 36% reduction in women aged 15-24 years. PrEP was cost-effective, including in a range of sensitivity analyses, although with substantially reduced (cost) effectiveness under a policy of ART initiation with efavirenz- rather than dolutegravir-based regimens due to PrEP undermining ART effectiveness by increasing HIV drug resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

PrEP use concentrated during time periods of condomless sex has the potential to substantively impact HIV incidence and be cost-effective.

How do Japanese rate the severity of different diseases and injuries?-an assessment of disability weights for 231 health states by 37,318 Japanese respondents

Background

Disability weights (DWs) are weight factors that reflect the severity of health states for estimates of disability-adjusted life years. A new set of global DWs was published for the Global Burden of Diseases and Injuries (GBD) 2013 study, which relied on sampling from various world regions, but included little data for countries in East Asia. This study aimed to measure DWs in Japan using comparable methods, and compare the results with previous estimates from the GBD 2013 DW study.

Methods

We conducted a web-based survey in 2019 to estimate DWs for 231 health states for the Japanese population. The survey included five new health states but otherwise followed the method of the GBD DW measurement study. The survey consisted of 15 paired comparison (PC) questions and 3 population health equivalence questions (PHE) per respondent. We analyzed PC data using probit regression and rescaled results to DW units between 0 (equivalent to full health) and 1 (equivalent to death).

Findings

We considered 37,318 nationally representative respondents. The values of the resulting DWs ranged from 0.707 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.527–0.842) for spinal cord injury at neck level (untreated) to 0.004 (UI 0.001–0.009) for mild anemia. High correlation between Japanese DW and GBD 2013 DW was observed, but there was considerable disagreement. Out of 226 comparable health states, 55 (24.3%) showed more than a factor-of-two difference, of which 41 (74.6%) had a higher value in Japanese DW. Many of the health states with higher DW in the Japan study were injuries, including amputation and fracture, and hearing and vision loss, while mental, behavioral, and substance use disorders generally tended to be lower.

Conclusions

This study has created an empirical basis for assessment of Japanese DWs of health status. The findings from this study based on the Japanese population suggest that there might be contextual differences in rating the severity of health states compared to previous surveys conducted elsewhere.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12963-021-00253-4.

Evidence-Based Guidelines and Secondary Meta-Analysis for the Use of Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation in Neurological and Psychiatric Disorders

BACKGROUND

Transcranial direct current stimulation has shown promising clinical results, leading to increased demand for an evidence-based review on its clinical effects.

OBJECTIVE

We convened a team of transcranial direct current stimulation experts to conduct a systematic review of clinical trials with more than 1 session of stimulation testing: pain, Parkinson's disease motor function and cognition, stroke motor function and language, epilepsy, major depressive disorder, obsessive compulsive disorder, Tourette syndrome, schizophrenia, and drug addiction.

METHODS

Experts were asked to conduct this systematic review according to the search methodology from PRISMA guidelines. Recommendations on efficacy were categorized into Levels A (definitely effective), B (probably effective), C (possibly effective), or no recommendation. We assessed risk of bias for all included studies to confirm whether results were driven by potentially biased studies.

RESULTS

Although most of the clinical trials have been designed as proof-of-concept trials, some of the indications analyzed in this review can be considered as definitely effective (Level A), such as depression, and probably effective (Level B), such as neuropathic pain, fibromyalgia, migraine, post-operative patient-controlled analgesia and pain, Parkinson's disease (motor and cognition), stroke (motor), epilepsy, schizophrenia, and alcohol addiction. Assessment of bias showed that most of the studies had low risk of biases, and sensitivity analysis for bias did not change these results. Effect sizes vary from 0.01 to 0.70 and were significant in about 8 conditions, with the largest effect size being in postoperative acute pain and smaller in stroke motor recovery (nonsignificant when combined with robotic therapy).

CONCLUSION

All recommendations listed here are based on current published PubMed-indexed data. Despite high levels of evidence in some conditions, it must be underscored that effect sizes and duration of effects are often limited; thus, real clinical impact needs to be further determined with different study designs.

Organized breast cancer screening not only reduces mortality from breast cancer but also significantly decreases disability-adjusted life years: analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study and screening programme availability in 130 countries

Background

Multiple studies over the past 4 decades have shown the significant benefit of breast cancer screening (BCS) in reducing mortality rates from breast cancer (BC). However, significant debate exists about the role of BCS in this regard, with some studies also showing no benefit in terms of mortality along with issues such as overdiagnosis, health care utilisation costs, psychological distress or overtreatment. To date, no BCS study has focused on disability. Hence the aim of this study is to evaluate the relative contribution of BCS approaches to age-standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates along with other related risk factors, from a country-level perspective.

Patients and methods

This study created a country-dataset by merging information from the Global Burden of Disease study regarding female age-standardized BC mortality, DALYs rates and other risk factors with the BCS programme availability at the national or regional level (versus no or only pilot such programme), BCS type (mammography, digital screening, breast self-examination and clinical breast examination) and other BCS-related information among 130 countries. Mixed-effect multilevel regression models were run to examine the associations of interest.

Results

The most important factor predictive of lower mortality was the more advanced type of BCS programme availability [mammography: −4.16, 95% CI −6.76 to −1.55; digital mammography/ultrasound: −3.64, 95% CI −6.59 to −0.70] when compared with self- or clinical breast examinations. High levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and smoking were also related to higher mortality and DALYs from BC. In terms of BC DALYs, BCS had a 21.9 to 22.3-fold increase in the magnitude of effect compared with that in terms of mortality. Data on mortality and DALYs in relation to BCS programmes were also calculated for high-, middle- and low-income countries.

Conclusions

These data further support the positive effects of BCS in relation to age-standardized BC mortality rates, and for the first time show the impact of BCS on DALYs too. Additional factors, such as diabetes, high levels of LDL-c or smoking seemed to be related to BC mortality and disability, and could be considered as additional components of possible interventions to be used alongside BCS to optimize the BCS benefit on patients.

•

A key factor predictive of lower age-standardized BC mortality was breast cancer screening (BCS).

•

This was the case with national-level BCS programmes as well as the availability of different types of BCS.

•

LDL-c and smoking among others, were related to mortality and disability.

•

BCS with mammography or digital screening was related to less age-standardized BC disability.

•

These data support, for the first time, the relation of BCS on disability.

Navigating Data Uncertainty and Modeling Assumptions in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment in an Informal Settlement in Kampala, Uganda

Decision-makers in developing communities often lack credible data to inform decisions related to water, sanitation, and hygiene. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), which quantifies pathogen-related health risks across exposure routes, can be informative; however, the utility of QMRA for decision-making is often undermined by data gaps. This work integrates QMRA, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, and household surveys in Bwaise, Kampala (Uganda) to characterize the implications of censored data management, identify sources of uncertainty, and incorporate risk perceptions to improve the suitability of QMRA for informal settlements or similar settings. In Bwaise, drinking water, hand rinse, and soil samples were collected from 45 households and supplemented with data from 844 surveys. Quantified pathogen (adenovirus, Campylobacter jejuni, and Shigella spp./EIEC) concentrations were used with QMRA to model infection risks from exposure through drinking water, hand-to-mouth contact, and soil ingestion. Health risks were most sensitive to pathogen data, hand-to-mouth contact frequency, and dose-response models (particularly C. jejuni). When managing censored data, results from upper limits of detection, half of limits of detection, and uniform distributions returned similar results, which deviated from lower limits of detection and maximum likelihood estimation imputation approaches. Finally, risk perceptions (e.g., it is unsafe to drink directly from a water source) were identified to inform risk management.

Effects of maternal folic acid supplementation on nuclear methyltransferase activity of adult rats subjected to an animal model of schizophrenia

INTRODUCTION

Schizophrenia is considered one of the most disabling and severe human diseases worldwide. The etiology of schizophrenia is thought to be multifactorial and evidence suggests that DNA methylation can play an important role in underlying pivotal neurobiological alterations of this disorder. Some studies have demonstrated the effects of dietary supplementation as an alternative approach to the prevention of schizophrenia, including folic acid. However, no study has ever investigated the role of such supplementation in altering the DNA methylation system in the context of schizophrenia.

OBJECTIVES

The present study aims to investigate the effects of maternal folic acid supplementation at different doses on nuclear methyltransferase activity of adult rat offspring subjected to an animal model schizophrenia induced by ketamine.

METHODS

Adult female Wistar rats, (60 days old) received folic acid-deficient diet, control diet, or control diet plus folic acid supplementation (at 5, 10, or 50 mg/kg) during pregnancy and lactation. After reaching adulthood (60 days), the male offspring of these dams were subjected to the animal model of schizophrenia induced by 7 days of ketamine intraperitoneal injection (25 mg/kg). After the 7-day protocol, the activity of nuclear methyltransferase was evaluated in the brains of the offspring.

RESULTS

Maternal folic acid supplementation at 50 mg/kg increased methyltransferase activity in the frontal cortex, while 10 mg/kg increased methyltransferase activity in the hippocampus. In the striatum of offspring treated with ketamine, maternal deficient diet, control diet, and folic acid supplementation at 5 mg/kg decreased methyltransferase activity compared to the control group. The folic acid supplementation at 10 and 50 mg/kg reversed this ketamine effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal FA deficiency could be related to schizophrenia pathophysiology, while FA supplementation could present a protective effect since it demonstrated persistent effects in epigenetic parameters in adult offspring.

Heterogeneous trajectories in schizophrenia: insights from neurodevelopment and neuroprogression models

The notion that schizophrenia is a neuroprogressive disorder is based on clinical perception of cumulative impairments over time and is supported by neuroimaging and biomarker research. Nevertheless, increasing evidence has indicated that schizophrenia first emerges as a neurodevelopmental disorder that could follow various pathways, some of them neuroprogressive. The objective of this review is to revisit basic research on cognitive processes and neuroimaging findings in a search for candidate keys to the intricate connections between neurodevelopment and neuroprogression in schizophrenia. In the complete panorama, schizophrenia is a neurodevelopmental disorder, possibly associated with an additional burden over the course of the disease through pathologically accelerated aging, and cognitive heterogeneity may explain the different trajectories of each patient.

Cost-effectiveness of one month of daily isoniazid and rifapentine versus three months of weekly isoniazid and rifapentine for prevention of tuberculosis among people receiving antiretroviral therapy in Uganda

Introduction

Preventive therapy is essential for reducing tuberculosis (TB) burden among people living with HIV (PLWH) in high‐burden settings. Short‐course preventive therapy regimens, such as three‐month weekly rifapentine and isoniazid (3HP) and one‐month daily rifapentine and isoniazid (1HP), may help facilitate uptake of preventive therapy for latently infected patients, but the comparative cost‐effectiveness of these regimens under different conditions is uncertain.

Methods

We used a Markov state‐transition model to estimate the incremental costs and effectiveness of 1HP versus 3HP in a simulated cohort of patients attending an HIV clinic in Uganda, as an example of a low‐income, high‐burden setting in which TB preventive therapy might be prescribed to PLWH. Our primary outcome was the incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio, expressed as 2019 US dollars per disability‐adjusted life year (DALY) averted. We estimated cost‐effectiveness under different conditions of treatment completion and efficacy of 1HP versus 3HP, latent TB prevalence and rifapentine price.

Results

Assuming equivalent clinical outcomes using 1HP and 3HP and a rifapentine price of $0.21 per 150 mg, 1HP would cost an additional $4.66 per patient treated. Assuming equivalent efficacy but 20% higher completion with 1HP versus 3HP, 1HP would cost $1,221 per DALY averted relative to 3HP. This could be reduced to $18 per DALY averted if 1HP had 5% greater efficacy than 3HP and the price of rifapentine were 50% lower. At a rifapentine price of $0.06 per 150 mg, 1HP would become cost‐neutral relative to 3HP.

Conclusions

1HP has the potential to be cost‐effective under many realistic circumstances. Cost‐effectiveness depends on rifapentine price, relative completion and efficacy, prevalence of latent TB and local willingness‐to‐pay.

Sex-related patterns of the gut-microbiota-brain axis in the neuropsychiatric conditions

Sex differences are often observed in psychiatric patients, especially major depressive disorders (MDD), schizophrenia, and developmental disorders, including autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). The prevalence rates between males and females seem variate according to the clinical condition. Although the findings are still incipient, it is suggested that these differences can involve neuroanatomical, neurochemical, and physiological sex differences. In this context, the microbiota-gut-brain axis hypothesis arises to explain some aspects of the complex pathophysiology of neuropsychiatric disorders. The microbiota composition is host-specific and can change conforming to age, sex, diet, medication, exercise, and others. The communication between the brain and the gut is bidirectional and may impact the entire system homeostasis. Many pathways appear to be involved, including neuroanatomic communication, neuroendocrine pathways, immune system, bacteria-derived metabolites, hormones, neurotransmitters, and neurotrophic factors. Although the clinical and preclinical studies are sparse and not very consistent, they suggest that sex differences in the gut microbiota may play an essential role in some neuropsychiatric conditions. Thus, this narrative review has as a mainly aim to show the points sex-related patterns associated to the gut-microbiota-brain axis in the MDD, ASDs, and schizophrenia.

The hidden burden of eating disorders: an extension of estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa are the only eating disorders included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, yet binge-eating disorder and other specified feeding or eating disorder (OSFED) are more prevalent. This study sought to estimate the prevalence and burden of binge-eating disorder and OSFED globally and present a case for their inclusion in GBD.

METHODS

We sourced studies from the GBD 2019 anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa epidemiological databases, two systematic reviews that included studies with epidemiological estimates of binge-eating disorder and OSFED, and experts in the field. Studies, published between Jan 1, 1998, and March 1, 2019, were included if they reported non-zero prevalence of two or more eating disorders (anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge-eating disorder, or OSFED) and diagnosed cases according to DSM-IV or DSM-5. The proportions of total eating disorder cases that met diagnostic criteria for each individual eating disorder were estimated via network meta-regression and simulation using studies reporting eating disorder prevalence. The global cases unrepresented in GBD 2019 were estimated using the proportions from the simulation and the GBD 2019 eating disorder prevalence. Disability weights for binge-eating disorder and OSFED were then estimated along with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

54 studies, of which 36 were from high-income countries, were included in the analysis. The number of global eating disorder cases in 2019 that were unrepresented in GBD 2019 was 41·9 million (95% UI 27·9-59·0), and consisted of 17·3 million (11·3-24·9) people with binge-eating disorder and 24·6 million (14·7-39·7) people with OSFED (vs 13·6 million [10·2-17·5] people with eating disorders in GBD 2019). Together, binge-eating disorder and OSFED caused 3·7 million (95% UI 2·0-6·5) DALYs globally, bringing the total eating disorder DALYs to 6·6 million (3·8-10·6) in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Binge-eating disorder and OSFED accounted for the majority of eating disorder cases and DALYs globally. These findings warrant the inclusion of binge-eating disorder and OSFED in future iterations of GBD, which will bring the burden experienced by people living with these disorders to the attention of policy makers with the means to target this burden.

FUNDING

Queensland Health, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) in Chongqing, China, 2017: An artificial intelligence and big data method estimating the burden of disease at city level

BACKGROUND

A universally applicable approach that provides standard HALE measurements for different regions has yet to be developed because of the difficulties of health information collection. In this study, we developed a natural language processing (NLP) based HALE estimation approach by using individual-level electronic medical records (EMRs), which made it possible to calculate HALE timely in different temporal or spatial granularities.

METHODS

We performed diagnostic concept extraction and normalisation on 13•99 million EMRs with NLP to estimate the prevalence of 254 diseases in WHO Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Then, we calculated HALE in Chongqing, 2017, by using the life table technique and Sullivan's method, and analysed the contribution of diseases to the expected years "lost" due to disability (DLE).

FINDINGS

Our method identified a life expectancy at birth (LE0) of 77•9 years and health-adjusted life expectancy at birth (HALE0) of 71•7 years for the general Chongqing population of 2017. In particular, the male LE0 and HALE0 were 76•3 years and 68•9 years, respectively, while the female LE0 and HALE0 were 80•0 years and 74•4 years, respectively. Cerebrovascular diseases, cancers, and injuries were the top three deterioration factors, which reduced HALE by 2•67, 2•15, and 1•19 years, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

The results demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of EMRs-based HALE estimation. Moreover, the method allowed for a potentially transferable framework that facilitated a more convenient comparison of cross-sectional and longitudinal studies on HALE between regions. In summary, this study provided insightful solutions to the global ageing and health problems that the world is facing.

FUNDING

National Key R and D Program of China (2018YFC2000400).

Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study

Pathogen populations can evolve in response to selective pressure from vaccine-induced immune responses. For HIV, models predict that viral adaptation, either via strain replacement or selection on de novo mutation, may rapidly reduce the effectiveness of an HIV vaccine. We hypothesized that behavioral risk compensation after vaccination may accelerate the transmission of vaccine resistant strains, increasing the rate of viral adaptation and leading to a more rapid decline in vaccine effectiveness. To test our hypothesis, we modeled: (a) the impact of risk compensation on rates of HIV adaptation via strain replacement in response to a partially effective vaccine; and (b) the combined impact of risk compensation and viral adaptation on vaccine-mediated epidemic control. We used an agent-based epidemic model that was calibrated to HIV-1 trends in South Africa, and includes demographics, sexual network structure and behavior, and within-host disease dynamics. Our model predicts that risk compensation can increase the rate of HIV viral adaptation in response to a vaccine. In combination, risk compensation and viral adaptation can, under certain scenarios, reverse initial declines in prevalence due to vaccination, and result in HIV prevalence at 15 years equal to or greater than prevalence without a vaccine.

Hepatitis C elimination in Myanmar: Modelling the impact, cost, cost-effectiveness and economic benefits

Background

Myanmar has set national hepatitis C (HCV) targets to achieve 50% of people diagnosed and 50% treated by 2030. The WHO has additional targets of reducing incidence by 80% and mortality by 65% by 2030. We aimed to estimate the impact, cost, cost-effectiveness and net economic benefit of achieving these targets.

Methods

Mathematical models of HCV transmission, disease progression and the care cascade were calibrated to 15 administrative regions of Myanmar. Cost data were collected from a community testing and treatment program in Yangon. Three scenarios were projected for 2020-2030: (1) baseline (current levels of testing/treatment); and testing/treatment scaled up sufficiently to reach (2) the national strategy targets; and (3) the WHO targets.

Findings

Without treatment scale-up, 333,000 new HCV infections and 97,000 HCV-related deaths were estimated to occur in Myanmar 2020-2030, with HCV costing a total $100 million in direct costs (testing, treatment, disease management) and $10.4 billion in lost productivity. In the model, treating 55,000 people each year was sufficient to reach the national strategy targets and prevented a cumulative 40,000 new infections (12%) and 25,000 HCV-related deaths (25%) 2020-2030. This was estimated to cost a total $189 million in direct costs ($243 per DALY averted compared to no treatment scale-up), but only $9.8 billion in lost productivity, making it cost-saving from a societal perspective by 2024 with an estimated net economic benefit of $553 million by 2030. Reaching the WHO targets required further treatment scale-up and additional direct costs but resulted in greater longer-term benefits.

Interpretation

Current levels of HCV testing and treatment in Myanmar are insufficient to reach the national strategy targets. Scaling up HCV testing and treatment in Myanmar to reach the national strategy targets is estimated to generate significant health and economic benefits.

Funding

Gilead Sciences.

Different Alternatives to Assess the Burden of Disease Using Attributable Fraction on a Disability Variable: The Case of Pain and Chronic Musculoskeletal Disorders in Chile

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the burden of disease through 4 complementary procedures to years lived with disability (YLDs) using the concept of attributable fraction and including analysis of subdomains of disability.

METHODS

We explored the burden on disability for 7 common musculoskeletal disorders (CMD) using the 2009 to 2010 Chilean National Health Survey, which included the Community Oriented Programme for the Control of Rheumatic Disease Core Questionnaire to identify cases with CMD, and an 8-domain questionnaire for health state descriptions. We calculated the proportion of disability attributable to pain in the general population and people with CMD. We also estimated the burden of CMD expressed as YLD and as the proportion of the disability in the general population attributable to people with CMD, with a particular focus in the pain domain of disability. Second order of uncertainty around point estimations was also characterized.

RESULTS

Pain domain of disability accounted for 23.4% of the total disability in the general population, and between 20% (fibromyalgia) to 27.1% (osteoarthritis of the hip) in people with some of the selected CMD. People with chronic musculoskeletal pain accounted for 21.2% of total disability from general population, which generated 1.2 million of YLD (6679 YLD/100 000 inhabitants). Chronic low back pain and osteoarthritis of the knee were in the top position of specific CMDs, explaining the highest national burden.

CONCLUSION

Pain is an essential component of disability in people with CMD and also in the general population. The approach used can be easily applied to other health conditions and other domains of disability.

A conceptual framework for reopening our society during the Covid-19 pandemic

Decisions about how to go about the necessary task of re-opening our society in the midst of the Covid-19 (CV19) have been paralyzed by our extremes. But we can neither afford to insist on a zero-risk response, nor can we pretend that the risk does not exist. What is needed are tools to rationally triage the risk. To this end, we propose a novel ‘risk index’, which is the intersection of two components of risk: 1) the risk of an individual becoming infected due to action ‘X’; and 2) the likely probability of death (or serious harm) if that individual develops CV19. The risk index allows risk to be compared across different scenarios, and may reveal that seemingly very different situations constitute similar degrees of risk. With risk measured in this way, one can then contrast different levels of risk against the social benefits of absorbing that risk, allowing actions to be sorted into those that are tolerable, debatable, or acceptable. While these concepts are presented in abstract based on approximate estimates of risk and influenced by our judgements about social desirability, the concept itself can be refined as more accurate approximations of risk and broadly accepted values of social desirability are derived empirically. In short, this is a tool intended to provide a useful empirical framework for rationale decision making about CV19.

The cost-effectiveness of government actions to reduce sodium intake through salt substitutes in Vietnam

Background

Dietary sodium reduction is recommended to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease. In Vietnam food products including salt, fish sauce and bot canh contribute to ~ 70% of dietary sodium intake. Reduced sodium versions of these products can be produced by replacing some of the sodium chloride with potassium chloride. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of three alternative approaches to introducing reduced sodium products onto the market with a view to lowering population sodium intake in Vietnam.

Methods

The three salt substitution strategies included voluntary, subsidised and regulatory approaches targeting salt, fish sauce and bot canh products. Costs were modelled using the WHO-CHOICE methodology. A Markov cohort model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of each strategy versus no intervention from the government perspective. The model linked each intervention strategy to assumed changes in levels of sodium intake and then to systolic blood pressure. Changes in SBP were linked to a probability of ischaemic heart disease or stroke. The model followed people over their lifetime to assess average costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained for each strategy.

Results

The voluntary salt substitution strategy was assumed to require no investment by government. Following ramp up (years 6+), the average annual costs for the subsidised and regulatory strategies were 21,808,968,902 ₫ (US$ 977,354) and 12,949,953,247 ₫ (US$ 580,410) respectively. Relative to no intervention, all three salt substitution strategies were found to be cost-effective. Cost savings were driven by reductions in strokes (32,595; 768,384; 2,366,480) and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) events (22,830; 537,157; 1,648,590) for the voluntary, subsidised & regulatory strategies, respectively. The voluntary strategy was least cost-effective (− 3445 ₫ US$ -0.15; 0.009 QALYs gained) followed by the subsidised strategy (− 43,189 ₫ US$ -1.86; 0.022 QALYs gained) and the regulatory strategy delivered the highest cost savings and health gains (− 243,530 ₫ US$ -10.49; 0.074 QALYs gained).

Conclusion

This research shows that all three modelled salt substitution strategies would be good value for money relative to no intervention in Vietnam. The subsidised alternative would require the highest level of government investment; however the implementation costs will be exceeded by healthcare savings assuming a reasonable time horizon is considered.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-021-00540-4.

Cost-effectiveness of a reactive oral cholera immunization campaign using Shanchol™ in Malawi

Background

Oral cholera vaccines (OCV) have been recommended as additional measures for the prevention of cholera. However, little is known about the cost-effectiveness of OCV use in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in reactive outbreak contexts. This study aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of the use of OCV Shanchol in response to a cholera outbreak in the Lake Chilwa area, Malawi.

Methods

The Excel-based Vaccine Introduction Cost-Effectiveness model was used to assess the cost-effectiveness ratios with and without indirect protection. Model input parameters were obtained from cost evaluations and epidemiological studies conducted in Malawi and published literature. One-way sensitivity and threshold analyses of cost-effectiveness ratios were performed.

Results

Compared with the reference scenario i.e. treatment of cholera cases, the immunization campaign would have prevented 636 and 1 020 cases of cholera without and with indirect protection, respectively. The cost-effectiveness ratios were US$19 212 per death, US$500 per case, and US$738 per DALY averted without indirect protection. They were US$10 165 per death, US$264 per case, and US$391 per DALY averted with indirect protection. The net cost per DALY averted was sensitive to four input parameters, including case fatality rate, duration of immunity (vaccine’s protective duration), discount rate and cholera incidence.

Conclusion

Relative to the Malawi gross domestic product per capita, the reactive OCV campaign represented a cost-effective intervention, particularly when considering indirect vaccine effects. Results will need to be assessed in other settings, e.g., during campaigns implemented directly by the Ministry of Health rather than by international partners.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12962-021-00270-y.

Using QALYs versus DALYs to measure cost-effectiveness: How much does it matter?

OBJECTIVES

Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) are commonly used in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to measure health benefits. We sought to quantify and explain differences between QALY- and DALY-based cost-effectiveness ratios, and explore whether using one versus the other would materially affect conclusions about an intervention's cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

We identified CEAs using both QALYs and DALYs from the Tufts Medical Center CEA Registry and Global Health CEA Registry, with a supplemental search to ensure comprehensive literature coverage. We calculated absolute and relative differences between the QALY- and DALY-based ratios, and compared ratios to common benchmarks (e.g., 1× gross domestic product per capita). We converted reported costs into US dollars.

RESULTS

Among eleven published CEAs reporting both QALYs and DALYs, seven focused on pharmaceuticals and infectious disease, and five were conducted in high-income countries. Four studies concluded that the intervention was "dominant" (cost-saving). Among the QALY- and DALY-based ratios reported from the remaining seven studies, absolute differences ranged from approximately $2 to $15,000 per unit of benefit, and relative differences from 6-120 percent, but most differences were modest in comparison with the ratio value itself. The values assigned to utility and disability weights explained most observed differences. In comparison with cost-effectiveness thresholds, conclusions were consistent regardless of the ratio type in ten of eleven cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that although QALY- and DALY-based ratios for the same intervention can differ, differences tend to be modest and do not materially affect comparisons to common cost-effectiveness thresholds.

Revised estimates of leprosy disability weights for assessing the global burden of disease: A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Leprosy is a chronic bacterial infection caused by Mycobacterium leprae, which may lead to physical disability, stigma, and discrimination. The chronicity of the disease and disabilities are the prime contributors to the disease burden of leprosy. The current figures of the disease burden in the 2017 global burden of disease study, however, are considered to be under-estimated. In this study, we aimed to systematically review the literature and perform individual patient data meta-analysis to estimate new disability weights for leprosy, using Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQOL) data.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The search strategy included all major databases with no restriction on language, setting, study design, or year of publication. Studies on human populations that have been affected by leprosy and recorded the HRQOL with the Short form tool, were included. A consortium was formed with authors who could share the anonymous individual-level data of their study. Mean disability weight estimates, sorted by the grade of leprosy disability as defined by WHO, were estimated for individual participant data and pooled using multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. Eight out of 14 studies from the review were included in the meta-analysis due to the availability of individual-level data (667 individuals). The overall estimated disability weight for grade 2 disability was 0.26 (95%CI: 0.18-0.34). For grade 1 disability the estimated weight was 0.19 (95%CI: 0.13-0.26) and for grade 0 disability it was 0.13 (95%CI: 0.06-0.19). The revised disability weight for grade 2 leprosy disability is four times higher than the published GBD 2017 weights for leprosy and the grade 1 disability weight is nearly twenty times higher.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The global burden of leprosy is grossly underestimated. Revision of the current disability weights and inclusion of disability caused in individuals with grade 0 leprosy disability will contribute towards a more precise estimation of the global burden of leprosy.

Disability-Adjusted Life Years Averted Versus Quality-Adjusted Life Years Gained: A Model Analysis for Breast Cancer Screening

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the impact of mammography-based screening on the quality of life, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted or quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained can be used. We aimed to assess whether the use of DALYs averted or QALYs gained will lead to different cost-effective screening strategies.

METHODS

Using the microsimulation model MISCAN, we simulated different breast cancer screening strategies varying in starting age (starting at 45, 47, and 50 years), stopping age (stopping at 69, 72, and 74 years), and frequency (annual [A], biennial [B], combination of both [A + B], and triennial [T]). In total, we defined 24 different breast cancer screening strategies, including no screening as a reference strategy. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and compared which strategies were on the efficiency frontiers for DALYs and QALYs.

RESULTS

Breast cancer screening averted between 46.00 and 105.58 DALYs and gained between 28.69 and 64.50 QALYs per 1000 women. For DALYs there were 5 strategies on the efficiency frontier (T50-69, T50-74, T45-74, B45-74, and A45-74). The same strategies plus one (B45-72) were on the efficiency frontier for QALYs.

CONCLUSIONS

Using DALYs averted instead of QALYs gained to assess the effects on quality of life from breast cancer screening in the Dutch population yields differences in ICERs, but almost the same strategies were on the efficiency frontiers. Whether the choice in outcome measure leads to a difference in optimal policy depends on the cost-effectiveness threshold.

Estimating epidemiological and economic burden and community derived disability weights for snake bite in Kerala: a study protocol

Background: In India, geographical variation, lack of data and underreporting on cases and deaths due to snakebite makes it difficult to estimate socio-economic burden of snakebites. Previous studies measuring economic burden of snakebite in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) using different approaches have been conducted, but none so far in India. The proposed study aims to provide evidence on disability weights, epidemiological and economic burden due to snakebites in Kerala state, India. Protocol: A cross-sectional community based study for estimating epidemiological and economic burden of snakebite, recruiting victims of snakebite occurring over a nine month period prior to start and over the three month period of the study, across Ernakulam district, Kerala state, India. For the community derived disability weights, 60 adult patients admitted and treated at Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences, Kochi or Little Flower Hospital, Angamaly would be interviewed. The sample size to determine the mortality rate is calculated at 108,458 persons in Ernakulam.The study will measure annual incidence, mortality, treatment cost of snakebites along with community-derived disability weights for snakebites. Standard methods for analysis and reporting of mortality, morbidity, years of lives lost, years lived with disability, disability weights, and costs of treatment will be calculated and presented. The study will be started in March 2021 and is expected to be completed by June 2021. Discussion: This protocol is the first published for estimating epidemiological, economic burden and community derived disability weights for snakebites in India. Besides, the Global Burden of Disease has not attached a particular disability weight to snakebite and this would be an attempt to do so.The protocol has been developed using guidelines for both cross-sectional studies and  for conducting community derived disability weights. The evidence generated will contribute to knowledge regarding epidemiology, economic burden and community-derived disability weights for snakebites in India and other LMICs.

Estimating epidemiological and economic burden and community derived disability weights for snake bite in Kerala: a study protocol

Background: In India, lack of data and underreporting of cases and deaths due to snakebite makes it difficult to estimate its socio-economic burden. Previous studies measuring economic burden of snakebite in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) using different approaches have been conducted, but none  in India. The proposed study aims to provide evidence on disability weights, epidemiological and economic burden due to snakebites in Kerala state, India. Protocol: The study is a community based cross-sectional study recruiting victims of snakebite occurring over a 12 month period prior to start of the study , across  Ernakulam district, Kerala state, India. For the community-derived disability weights,70 adult patients who were treated within a 3 month period prior to commencement of the study at Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences, Kochi or Little Flower Hospital, Angamaly would be interviewed. The study will measure annual incidence, mortality, treatment cost of snakebites along with community-derived disability weights for snakebites in Ernakulam district.. Standard methods for analysis and reporting of mortality, morbidity, Years of Lives Lost (YLL), Years lived with disability (YLD), disability weights, and costs of treatment will be calculated. The study will be started in April 2021 and is expected to be completed by July2021.. Discussion: This protocol is the first published for estimating epidemiological, economic burden and community derived disability weights for snakebites in India. Besides, the Global Burden of Disease has not attached a particular disability weight to snakebite and this would be an attempt to do so. The protocol has been developed using guidelines for cross-sectional studies, cost of illness studies and international guidelines for conducting community derived disability weights. The evidence generated by this study will contribute significantly to knowledge regarding the epidemiology, economic burden and community-derived disability weights for snakebites in India and other countries where incidence of snakebite is high.

ROS-Responsive Nanoparticle as a Berberine Carrier for OHC-Targeted Therapy of Noise-Induced Hearing Loss

Overproduction of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and inflammation are two key pathogeneses of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL), which leads to outer hair cell (OHC) damage and hearing loss. In this work, we successfully developed ROS-responsive nanoparticles as berberine (BBR) carriers (PL-PPS/BBR) for OHC-targeted therapy of NIHL: Prestin-targeting peptide 2 (PrTP2)-modified nanoparticles (PL-PPS/BBR), which effectively accumulated in OHC areas, and poly(propylene sulfide)₁₂₀ (PPS₁₂₀), which scavenged ROS and converted to poly(propylene sulfoxide)₁₂₀ in a ROS environment to disintegrate and provoke the rapid release of BBR with anti-inflammatory and antioxidant effects. In this study, satisfactory anti-inflammatory and antioxidant effects of PL-PPS/BBR were confirmed. Immunofluorescence and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images showed that PL-PPS/BBR effectively accumulated in OHCs and protected the morphological integrity of OHCs. The auditory brainstem response (ABR) results demonstrated that PL-PPS/BBR significantly improved hearing in NIHL guinea pigs after noise exposure. This work suggested that PL-PPS/BBR may be a new potential treatment for noise-associated injury with clinical application.

Cost-per-remitter with esketamine nasal spray versus standard of care for treatment-resistant depression

Aim: Estimate the cost-per-remitter with esketamine nasal spray plus an oral antidepressant (ESK + oral AD) versus oral AD plus nasal placebo (oral AD + PBO) among patients with treatment-resistant depression. Patients & methods: An Excel-based model was developed to estimate the cost-per-remitter for ESK + oral AD versus oral AD + PBO over 52 weeks from multiple US payer perspectives. Clinical end points and cost inputs were derived from clinical trials and the literature, respectively. Results: Under the base-case scenario, the cost-per-remitter for ESK + oral AD and oral AD + PBO were as follows: Commercial: US$85,808 versus US$100,198; Medicaid: US$76,236 versus US$96,067; Veteran's Affairs: US$77,765 versus US$104,519; and Integrated Delivery Network: US$103,924 versus US$142,766. Conclusion: The findings suggest that ESK + oral AD is a cost-efficient alternative treatment for treatment-resistant depression compared with oral AD + PBO.

Effect of Excessive Body Weight and Emotional Disorders on the Course of Pregnancy and Well-Being of a Newborn before and during COVID-19 Pandemic

This study aimed to evaluate whether excessive body weight and the COVID-19 pandemic affect depression, and subsequently whether depression, excessive body weight, and the COVID-19 pandemic affect the course of pregnancy, as well as the well-being of a newborn. The research material included data retrieved from the medical records of 280 pregnant women who were provided with care by medical facilities in Lublin (100 women with normal weight, 100 overweight women, 50 with Class I and 30 with Class II obesity). They completed a Beck depression inventory (BDI) in pregnancy twice, in order to assess the risk of occurrence of postpartum depression. Pre-pregnancy BMI positively correlated with the severity of depression, both at 10–13 weeks of pregnancy (p < 0.001), and at 32 weeks of pregnancy (p < 0.001). The higher the pre-pregnancy BMI, on average the higher the severity of depression. The severity of depression was significantly higher during the pandemic than before it in women with normal body weight before pregnancy (p < 0.001), as well as in those overweight (p < 0.001) and with Class II obesity (p = 0.015). Excessive body weight before pregnancy leads to depressive disorders during pregnancy, increases the risk of preterm delivery, and exerts a negative effect on the state of a newborn. Depressive symptoms among pregnant, overweight and obese women intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Quantification of injury burden using multiple data sources: a longitudinal study

Quantification of injury burden is vital for injury prevention, as it provides a guide for setting policies and priorities. This study generated a set of Hong Kong specific disability weights (DWs) derived from patient experiences and hospital records. Patients were recruited from the Accident and Emergency Department (AED) of three major trauma centers in Hong Kong between September 2014 and December 2015 and subsequently interviewed with a focus on health-related quality of life at most three times over a 12-month period. These patient-reported data were then used for estimation of DWs. The burden of injury was determined using the mortality and inpatient data from 2001 to 2012 and then compared with those reported in the UK Burden of Injury (UKBOI) and global burden of diseases (GBD) studies. There were 22,856 mortality cases and 817,953 morbidity cases caused by injuries, in total contributing to 1,027,641 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the 12-year study timeframe. Estimates for DALYs per 100,000 in Hong Kong amounted to 1192, compared with 2924 in UKBOI and 3459 in GBD. Our findings support the use of multiple data sources including patient-reported data and hospital records for estimation of injury burden.

Individualized prediction of 2-year risk of relapse as indexed by psychiatric hospitalization following psychosis onset: Model development in two first episode samples

BACKGROUND

Although most patients with psychotic disorders experience relapse, it is not possible to predict whether or when an individual patient is going to relapse. We aimed to develop a multifactorial risk prediction algorithm for predicting risk of relapse in first episode psychosis (FEP).

METHODS

Data from two prospectively collected cohorts of FEP patients (N = 1803) were used to develop three multiple logistic prediction models to predict risk of relapse (defined as hospitalization) within the first 2 years of onset of psychosis. Model 1 (M1_S1) used data obtained from clinical notes (Sample 1) while model 2 (M2_S2) applied the same set of predictors using data obtained from research interviews (Sample 2). The final model (Sample 2: M3_S2) used the same predictors plus additional detailed information on predictors. Model performance was evaluated employing measures of overall accuracy, calibration, discrimination and internal validation.

RESULTS

In both samples, the 2-year probability of psychiatric hospitalization was 37%. Of all the models, discrimination accuracy was lowest when limited information (such as socio-demographic and clinical parameters) was included in the prediction model. Model M3_S2 using additional information (descriptors of pattern of cannabis, nicotine, alcohol and other illicit drug use) obtained from research interview had the best discrimination accuracy (Harrell's C index 0.749).

CONCLUSIONS

The measures that contributed most to predicting hospitalization are readily accessible in routine clinical practice, suggesting that a risk prediction tool based on these models would be clinically practicable following validation in independent samples and permit a personalized approach to relapse prevention in psychosis.

The burden of osteoarthritis: self-reported severity in the KHOALA population-based cohort

OBJECTIVES

Lay descriptions of mild, moderate and severe disease states have been utilized in Global Burden of Disease studies in the calculation of years lived with disability, and may be a useful brief starting point for clinical care. The primary aims of this study were to estimate the proportion of an OA cohort within each severity level, and to assess the validity of lay descriptions of OA.

METHODS

During 2014 to 2016, participants in the KHOALA population-based cohort completed questionnaires including pain, function, and quality of life, in addition to indicating which of the lay descriptions devised for presenting to populations in GBD2010 they felt best described their current condition.

RESULTS

569 participants comprising 152 with hip OA, 384 knee OA and 33 with both hip+knee OA participated. 10% of hip OA and 17% of knee OA participants classified themselves as having severe OA, a considerably higher proportion than the 2% reported for high-income countries in GBD2010.The lay descriptions showed significant convergent and divergent validity: pain, function and stiffness scores increased as the rating of severity increased, with a significant trend for EQ5D and EUROQOL VAS to decline, also indicating worse health state, as level of severity increased.

CONCLUSION

Lay descriptions of levels of severity are understandable by participants and show convergent validity with standardized measure of physical and functional outcomes. The proportion of people with OA who align themselves with the severe category is considerably larger than that used in GBD estimates to estimate the impact of OA.

Health expectancies in the European Union: same concept, different methods, different results

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy (HLE) is a population health measure that combines mortality and morbidity, which can be calculated using different methods. In this study, we aimed to assess the correlation, reliability and (dis)agreement between two estimates monitored in the European Union (EU), that is, the European Commission's HLE based on self-perceived health (SPH-HLE) and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's HLE based on disability weight (DW-HLE), by sex, and comparing these results with LE and proportion of life spent in good health (%GH).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study in the EU28 countries, between 2010 and 2017. The HLE methods differ in definition, measurement and valuation of health states. While SPH-HLE relies directly on one question, DW-HLE relies on epidemiological data adjusted for DW. Spearman's r, intraclass correlation coefficient, information-based measure of disagreement and Bland-Altman plots were used to assess reliability, correlation and disagreement in HLE resulting from both methods and in LE or %GH measured by both institutions.

RESULTS

Correlation and reliability between SPH-HLE and DW-HLE were good (better for males), with low disagreement, and were even better for LE between both institutions. The HLE Bland-Altman plots suggest a variability range of approximately 6 years for both sexes, higher for females. There was also an increasing HLE difference between methods with higher average HLE for both sexes.

CONCLUSION

We showed wide variations between both methods with a clear and different high impact on female and male HLE, showing a tendency for countries with higher health expectancies to yield larger gaps between SPH-HLE and DW-HLE.

Daily functioning and symptom factors contributing to attitudes toward antipsychotic treatment and treatment adherence in outpatients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders

BACKGROUND

Poor adherence and negative attitudes to treatment are common clinical problems when treating psychotic disorders. This study investigated how schizophrenia core symptoms and daily functioning affect treatment adherence and attitudes toward antipsychotic medication and to compare patients using clozapine or other antipsychotics.

METHOD

A cross-sectional study with data from 275 patients diagnosed with schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Patients adherence, attitudes, insight and side-effects were evaluated using the Attitudes toward Neuroleptic Treatment scale. Overall symptomology was measured using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), the Health of the Nation Outcome Scale (HoNOS). The functioning was assessed using activities of daily living scale, instrumental activities of daily living scale and social functioning of daily living scale.

RESULTS

Self-reported treatment adherence was high. Of the patients, 83% reported using at least 75% of the prescribed medication. Having more symptoms was related with more negative attitude towards treatment. There was a modest association with functioning and treatment adherence and attitude toward antipsychotic treatment. Attitudes affected on adherence in non-clozapine but not in clozapine groups.

CONCLUSION

Early detection of non-adherence is difficult. Systematic evaluation of attitudes toward the treatment could be one way to assess this problem, along with optimized medication, prompt evaluation of side effects and flexible use of psychosocial treatments.

The Devils in the DALY: Prevailing Evaluative Assumptions

In recent years, it has become commonplace among the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study authors to regard the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) primarily as a descriptive health metric. During the first phase of the GBD (1990–1996), it was widely acknowledged that the DALY had built-in evaluative assumptions. However, from the publication of the 2010 GBD and onwards, two central evaluative practices—time discounting and age-weighting—have been omitted from the DALY model. After this substantial revision, the emerging view now appears to be that the DALY is primarily a descriptive measure. Our aim in this article is to argue that the DALY, despite changes, remains largely evaluative. Our analysis focuses on the understanding of the DALY by comparing the DALY as a measure of disease burden in the two most significant phases of GBD publications, from their beginning (1990–1996) to the most recent releases (2010–2017). We identify numerous assumptions underlying the DALY and group them as descriptive or evaluative. We conclude that while the DALY model arguably has become more descriptive, it remains, by necessity, largely evaluative.

Cost-effectiveness of dual maternal HIV and syphilis testing strategies in high and low HIV prevalence countries: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Dual HIV and syphilis testing might help to prevent mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV and syphilis through increased case detection and treatment. We aimed to model and assess the cost-effectiveness of dual testing during antenatal care in four countries with varying HIV and syphilis prevalence.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we developed Markov models of HIV and syphilis in pregnant women to estimate costs and infant health outcomes of maternal testing at the first antenatal care visit with individual HIV and syphilis tests (base case) and at the first antenatal care visit with a dual rapid diagnostic test (scenario one). We additionally evaluated retesting during late antenatal care and at delivery with either individual tests (scenario two) or a dual rapid diagnosis test (scenario three). We modelled four countries: South Africa, Kenya, Colombia, and Ukraine. Strategies with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) less than the country-specific cost-effectiveness threshold (US$500 in Kenya, $750 in South Africa, $3000 in Colombia, and $1000 in Ukraine) per disability-adjusted life-year averted were considered cost-effective.

FINDINGS

Routinely offering testing at the first antenatal care visit with a dual rapid diagnosis test was cost-saving compared with the base case in all four countries (ICER: -$26 in Kenya,-$559 in South Africa, -$844 in Colombia, and -$454 in Ukraine). Retesting during late antenatal care with a dual rapid diagnostic test (scenario three) was cost-effective compared with scenario one in all four countries (ICER: $270 in Kenya, $260 in South Africa, $2207 in Colombia, and $205 in Ukraine).

INTERPRETATION

Incorporating dual rapid diagnostic tests in antenatal care can be cost-saving across countries with varying HIV prevalence. Countries should consider incorporating dual HIV and syphilis rapid diagnostic tests as the first test in antenatal care to support efforts to eliminate MTCT of HIV and syphilis.

FUNDING

WHO, US Agency for International Development, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Reprint of: A review of negative symptom assessment strategies in youth at clinical high-risk for psychosis

Studies attempting to deconstruct the heterogeneity of schizophrenia and the attenuated psychosis syndrome consistently find that negative symptoms are a core dimension that is distinct from other aspects of the illness (e.g., positive and disorganized symptoms). Negative symptoms are also highly predictive of poor community-based functional outcomes, suggesting they are a critical treatment target. Unfortunately, pharmacological and psychosocial treatments for negative symptoms have demonstrated limited effectiveness. To address this critical unmet therapeutic need, the NIMH sponsored a consensus development conference to delineate research priorities for the field and stimulate treatment development. A primary conclusion of this meeting was that next-generation negative symptom rating scales should be developed to address methodological and conceptual limitations of existing instruments. Although second-generation rating scales were developed for adults with schizophrenia, progress in this area has lagged behind for youth at clinical-high risk (CHR) for developing psychosis (i.e. those meeting criteria for a prodromal syndrome). Given that negative symptoms are highly predictive of the transition to diagnosable psychotic illness, enhancing our ability to detect negative symptoms in CHR youth is paramount. The current paper discusses conceptual and methodological limitations inherent to existing scales that assess negative symptoms in CHR youth. The theoretical and clinical implications of these limitations are evaluated. It is concluded that new scales specifically designed to assess negative symptoms in CHR youth are needed to accurately chart mental illness trajectories and determine when, where, and how to intervene. Recent efforts to develop next-generation measures designed specifically for CHR youth to meet this urgent need in the field are discussed. These new approaches offer significant progress for addressing issues inherent to earlier scales.

Sociocultural determinants and patterns of healthcare utilization for epilepsy care in Uganda

OBJECTIVE

Epilepsy is a global public health concern, with the majority of cases occurring in lower- and middle-income countries where the treatment gap remains formidable. In this study, we simultaneously explore how beliefs about epilepsy causation, perceived barriers to care, seizure disorder characteristics, and demographics influence the initial choice of healthcare for epilepsy and its impact on attaining biomedical care (BMC).

METHODS

This study utilized the baseline sample (n = 626) from a prospective cohort study of people with epilepsy (PWE) attending three public hospitals in Uganda (Mulago National Referral Hospital, Butabika National Referral Mental Hospital, and Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital) for epilepsy care. Patient and household demographics, clinical seizure disorder characteristics, and sociocultural questionnaires were administered. Logistic regression and principal component analyses (PCA) were conducted to examine associations with the choice of primary seizure treatment.

RESULTS

The sample was 49% female, and 24% lived in rural settings. A biomedical health facility was the first point of care for 355 (56.7%) participants, while 229 (36.6%) first sought care from a traditional healer and 42 (6.7%) from a pastoral healer. Preliminary inspection of candidate predictors using relaxed criteria for significance (p < 0.20) identified several factors potentially associated with a greater odds of seeking BMC first. Demographic predictors included older caredriver (decision-maker for the participant) age (odds ratio [OR]: 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [0.99, 1.02], p-value: 0.09), greater caredriver education level (OR = 1.21, 95% CI: [1.07, 1.37], p-value = 0.003), and lower ratio of sick to healthy family members (OR = 0.77 [0.56, 1.05], P = 0.097). For clinical predictors, none of the proposed predictors associated significantly with seeking BMC first. Self-report causation predictors associated with a greater odds of seeking BMC first included higher belief in biological causes of epilepsy (OR = 1.31 [0.92, 1.88], P = 0.133) and lower belief in socio-spiritual causes of epilepsy (OR = 0.68 [0.56, 0.84], P < 0.001). In the multivariate model, only higher caredriver education (OR = 1.19 [1.04, 1.36], P = 0.009) and lower belief in socio-spiritual causes of epilepsy (OR = 0.69 [0.56, 0.86], P < 0.01) remained as predictors of seeking BMC first. Additionally, PCA revealed a pattern which included high income with low beliefs in nonbiological causes of epilepsy as being associated with seeking BMC first (OR = 1.32 [1.12, 1.55], p = 0.001). Despite reaching some form of care faster, individuals seeking care from traditional or pastoral healers experienced a significant delay to eventual BMC (P < 0.001), with an average delay of more than two years (traditional healer: 2.53 years [1.98, 3.24]; pastoral care: 2.18 [1.21, 3.91]).

CONCLUSIONS

Coupled with low economic and educational status, belief in spiritual causation of epilepsy is a dominant determinant of opting for traditional or pastoral healing over BMC, regardless of concurrent belief in biological etiologies. There is a prolonged delay to eventual BMC for PWE who begin their treatment seeking with nonallopathic providers, and although nonallopathic healers provide PWE with benefits not provided by BMC, this notable delay likely prevents earlier administration of evidence-based care with known efficacy. Based on these findings, initiatives to increase public awareness of neurobiological causes of epilepsy and effectiveness of biomedical drug treatments may be effective in preventing delays to care, as would programs designed to facilitate cooperation and referral among traditional, faith-based, and biomedical providers. This article is part of the Special Issue "The Intersection of Culture, Resources, and Disease: Epilepsy Care in Uganda".

Burden of cardiovascular disease from 1990 to 2017 in Henan Province, China

Background

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading causes of death in China. Little is known about the CVD burden and risk factors in Henan Province, China.

Objective

To analyze the CVD burden and main risk factors between 1990 and 2017 in the Henan Province in China.

Methods

The methodological framework and analytical strategies adopted in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 were used.

Results

(1) Age-standardized mortality rate attributed to CVDs increased from 355.0 per 100,000 persons in 1990 to 364.1 per 100,000 persons in 2017 in Henan. (2) Age-standardized disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate fell by 3.9% from 1990 to 2017. However, the number of DALYs attributed to CVDs increased by 75.9% from 4.2 million person-years in 1990 to 7.3 million person-years in 2017. (3) The age-standardized years lived with disability (YLDs) rate increased by 27.5% from 1990 to 2017. However, years of life lost (YLLs) rate decreased by 6.7% from 1990 to 2017. The contribution of YLLs to the DALYs decreased from 91.4% in 1990 to 89.2% in 2017. (4) Stroke (52.3%) and ischemic heart diseases (38.8%) accounted for 91.1% of total CVDs DALYs among adults in 2017. (5) Dietary factors such as high intake of sodium, alcohol use and low intake of fruits, high systolic blood pressure, and tobacco use were the top risk factors for CVDs, and the estimated population attributable fraction in 2017 was 69.4%, 56.7% and 25.2%, respectively.

Conclusions

The absolute burden of CVDs in Henan is still high, although age-standardized DALYs declined between 1990 and 2017. The prevention and control of stroke and ischemic heart diseases should focus on a few modifiable risk factors which mainly contributed to the burden of CVDs, such as dietary factors, high systolic blood pressure, and tobacco use.

Community health workers to improve adherence to anti-seizure medication in rural South Africa: Is it cost-effective?

OBJECTIVE

Epilepsy is a common, chronic neurological disorder that disproportionately affects individuals living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the treatment gap remains high and adherence to medication remains low. Community health workers (CHWs) have been shown to be effective at improving adherence to chronic medications, yet no study assessing the costs of CHWs in epilepsy management has been reported.

METHODS

Using a Markov model with age- and sex-varying transition probabilities, we determined whether deploying CHWs to improve epilepsy treatment adherence in rural South Africa would be cost-effective. Data were derived using published studies from rural South Africa. Official statistics and international disability weights provided cost and health state values, respectively, and health gains were measured using quality adjusted life years (QALYs).

RESULTS

The intervention was estimated at International Dollars ($) 123 250 per annum per sub-district community and cost $1494 and $1857 per QALY gained for males and females, respectively. Assuming a costlier intervention and lower effectiveness, cost per QALY was still less than South Africa's Gross Domestic Product per capita of $13 215, the cost-effectiveness threshold applied.

SIGNIFICANCE

CHWs would be cost-effective and the intervention dominated even when costs and effects of the intervention were unfavorably varied. Health system re-engineering currently underway in South Africa identifies CHWs as vital links in primary health care, thereby ensuring sustainability of the intervention. Further research on understanding local health state utility values and cost-effectiveness thresholds could further inform the current model, and undertaking the proposed intervention would provide better estimates of its efficacy on reducing the epilepsy treatment gap in rural South Africa.

Reflections on key methodological decisions in national burden of disease assessments

BACKGROUND

Summary measures of population health are increasingly used in different public health reporting systems for setting priorities for health care and social service delivery and planning. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are one of the most commonly used health gap summary measures in the field of public health and have become the key metric for quantifying burden of disease (BoD). BoD methodology is, however, complex and highly data demanding, requiring a substantial capacity to apply, which has led to major disparities across researchers and nations in their resources to perform themselves BoD studies and interpret the soundness of available estimates produced by the Global Burden of Disease Study.

METHODS

BoD researchers from the COST Action European Burden of Disease network reflect on the most important methodological choices to be made when estimating DALYs. The paper provides an overview of eleven methodological decisions and challenges drawing on the experiences of countries working with BoD methodology in their own national studies. Each of these steps are briefly described and, where appropriate, some examples are provided from different BoD studies across the world.

RESULTS

In this review article we have identified some of the key methodological choices and challenges that are important to understand when calculating BoD metrics. We have provided examples from different BoD studies that have developed their own strategies in data usage and implementation of statistical methods in the production of BoD estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

With the increase in national BoD studies developing their own strategies in data usage and implementation of statistical methods in the production of BoD estimates, there is a pressing need for equitable capacity building on the one hand, and harmonization of methods on the other hand. In response to these issues, several BoD networks have emerged in the European region that bring together expertise across different domains and professional backgrounds. An intensive exchange in the experience of the researchers in the different countries will enable the understanding of the methods and the interpretation of the results from the local authorities who can effectively integrate the BoD estimates in public health policies, intervention and prevention programs.

The Social Risks of Science

Many instances of scientific research impose risks, not just on participants and scientists but also on third parties. This class of social risks unifies a range of problems previously treated as distinct phenomena, including so-called bystander risks, biosafety concerns arising from gain-of-function research, the misuse of the results of dual-use research, and the harm caused by inductive risks. The standard approach to these problems has been to extend two familiar principles from human subjects research regulations-a favorable risk-benefit ratio and informed consent. We argue, however, that these moral principles will be difficult to satisfy in the context of widely distributed social risks about which affected parties may reasonably disagree. We propose that framing these risks as political rather than moral problems may offer another way. By borrowing lessons from political philosophy, we propose a framework that unifies our discussion of social risks and the possible solutions to them.

Waiting Too Long: The Contribution of Delayed Surgical Access to Pediatric Disease Burden in Somaliland

BACKGROUND

Delayed access to surgical care for congenital conditions in low- and middle-income countries is associated with increased risk of death and life-long disabilities, although the actual burden of delayed access to care is unknown. Our goal was to quantify the burden of disease related to delays to surgical care for children with congenital surgical conditions in Somaliland.

METHODS

We collected data from medical records on all children (n = 280) receiving surgery for a proxy set of congenital conditions over a 12-month time period across all 15 surgically equipped hospitals in Somaliland. We defined delay to surgical care for each condition as the difference between the ideal and the actual ages at the time of surgery. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to these delays were calculated and compared by the type of condition, travel distance to care, and demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

We found long delays in surgical care for these 280 children with congenital conditions, translating to a total of 2970 attributable delayed DALYs, or 8.4 avertable delayed DALYs per child, with the greatest burden among children with neurosurgical and anorectal conditions. Over half of the families seeking surgical care had to travel over 2 h to a surgically equipped hospital in the capital city of Hargeisa.

CONCLUSIONS

Children with congenital conditions in Somaliland experience substantial delays to surgical care and travel long distances to obtain care. Estimating the burden of delayed surgical care with avertable delayed DALYs offers a powerful tool for estimating the costs and benefits of interventions to improve the quality of surgical care.

Towards capability-adjusted life years in public health and social welfare: Results from a Swedish survey on ranking capabilities

Introduction

The aim of this study was to rank capabilities and suggest a relevant set of capabilities for the Swedish context to inform the development of capability-adjusted life years (CALYs). CALYs is a quality of life measure for policy making based on the capability approach by Amartya Sen.

Materials and methods

A Swedish governmental review proposed the following 10 relevant capabilities: time, financial situation, mental/physical health, political resources, knowledge, living environment, occupation, social relations, security, and housing. Researchers in health-related disciplines from 5 universities ranked these capabilities from 1 to 10 (most to least important) in a web-based cross-sectional survey; 115 of 171 responses were eligible.

Results

Health, social relations, and financial situation were deemed most important. Stratification by gender, research field, and age group revealed few differences. We found that it was possible to rank capabilities and that health, social relations, and financial situation were ranked highest by a non-representative sample of researchers and doctoral students from health-related disciplines at five Swedish universities.

Conclusions

The revealed ranking is dependent on the metric and must be further explored. The findings support continued development of CALYs for monitoring and evaluating outcomes in public health and social-welfare interventions.

Cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine versus single screening and treatment for the control of malaria in pregnancy in Papua, Indonesia: a provider perspective analysis from a cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Malaria infection during pregnancy is associated with serious adverse maternal and birth outcomes. A randomised controlled trial in Papua, Indonesia, comparing the efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine with the current strategy of single screening and treatment showed that intermittent preventive treatment is a promising alternative treatment for the reduction of malaria in pregnancy. We aimed to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine compared with single screening and treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine.

METHODS

We did a provider perspective analysis. A decision tree model was analysed from a health provider perspective over a lifetime horizon. Model parameters were used in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Simulations were run in hypothetical cohorts of 1000 women who received intermittent preventive treatment or single screening and treatment. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for fetal loss or neonatal death, low birthweight, moderate or severe maternal anaemia, and clinical malaria were calculated from trial data and cost estimates in 2016 US dollars from observational studies, health facility costings and public procurement databases. The main outcome measure was the incremental cost per DALY averted.

FINDINGS

Relative to single screening and treatment, intermittent preventive treatment resulted in an incremental cost of US$5657 (95% CI 1827 to 9448) and 107·4 incremental DALYs averted (-719·7 to 904·1) per 1000 women; the average incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $53 per DALY averted.

INTERPRETATION

Intermittent preventive treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine offers a cost-effective alternative to single screening and treatment for the prevention of the adverse effects of malaria infection in pregnancy in the context of the moderate malaria transmission setting of Papua. The higher cost of intermittent preventive treatment was driven by monthly administration, as compared with single-administration single screening and treatment. However, acceptability and feasibility considerations will also be needed to inform decision making.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council, Department for International Development, and Wellcome Trust.