Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Accessibilité aux soins en situation d’urgence : des déterminants complexes, un besoin d’outils novateurs

Les délais d’accès aux soins sont directement associés au pronostic de nombreuses situations et pathologies urgentes telles que l’arrêt cardiaque extrahospitalier, l’accident vasculaire cérébral, l’infarctus du myocarde ou le traumatisme grave. Ils représentent ainsi un critère de qualité et d’efficacité du système préhospitalier. Or, les déterminants de l’accessibilité aux soins urgents, donc des délais de prise en charge préhospitalière jusqu’au soin définitif, sont multiples, intriquant notamment des dimensions organisationnelles, géographiques et socioéconomiques, captées par différentes définitions de l’accessibilité aux soins. La mesure de l’accessibilité aux soins urgents est donc complexe et nécessite l’emploi de méthodes spécifiques. Ses déterminants sont sujets à d’importantes disparités territoriales, tant sur le plan national que local, qui conduisent à de fortes inégalités de santé en situation urgente. L’organisation du système de soins préhospitaliers doit ainsi prendre en compte l’ensemble des définitions de l’accessibilité en vie réelle, afin de répondre à des objectifs de performance ajustés aux enjeux particuliers des pathologies traceuses les plus urgentes. Les prochaines évolutions organisationnelles et technologiques en médecine d’urgence devraient permettre de mieux appréhender les déterminants de l’accessibilité à toutes les phases de la prise en charge préhospitalière, vers un rééquilibrage de l’inadéquation entre les besoins réels et l’offre possible de soins urgents.

A growing disadvantage of being born in an urban area? Analysing urban-rural disparities in neonatal mortality in 21 African countries with a focus on Tanzania

INTRODUCTION

Neonatal mortality rate (NMR) has been declining in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, where historically rural areas had higher NMR compared with urban. The 2015-2016 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in Tanzania showed an exacerbation of an existing pattern with significantly higher NMR in urban areas. The objective of this study is to understand this disparity in SSA countries and examine the specific factors potentially underlying this association in Tanzania.

METHODS

We assessed urban-rural NMR disparities among 21 SSA countries with four or more DHS, at least one of which was before 2000, using the DHS StatCompiler. For Tanzania DHS 2015-2016, descriptive statistics were carried out disaggregated by urban and rural areas, followed by bivariate and multivariable logistic regression modelling the association between urban/rural residence and neonatal mortality, adjusting for other risk factors.

RESULTS

Among 21 countries analysed, Tanzania was the only SSA country where urban NMR (38 per 1000 live births) was significantly higher than rural (20 per 1,000), with largest difference during first week of life. We analysed NMR on the 2015-2016 Tanzania DHS, including live births to 9736 women aged between 15 and 49 years. Several factors were significantly associated with higher NMR, including multiplicity of pregnancy, being the first child, higher maternal education, and male child sex. However, their inclusion did not attenuate the effect of urban-rural differences in NMR. In multivariable models, urban residence remained associated with double the odds of neonatal mortality compared with rural.

CONCLUSION

There is an urgent need to understand the role of quality of facility-based care, including role of infections, and health-seeking behaviour in case of neonatal illness at home. However, additional factors might also be implicated and higher NMR within urban areas of Tanzania may signal a shift in the pattern of neonatal mortality across several other SSA countries.

Testing Kissick's Iron Triangle-Structural Equation Modeling Analysis of a Practical Theory

Background/Purpose: The purpose of this research is to determine if the tradeoffs that Kissick proposed among cost containment, quality, and access remain as rigidly interconnected as originally conceived in the contemporary health care context. Although many have relied on the Kissick model to advocate for health policy decisions, to our knowledge the model has never been empirically tested. Some have called for policy makers to come to terms with the premise of the Kissick model tradeoffs, while others have questioned the model, given the proliferation of quality-enhancing initiatives, automation, and information technology in the health care industry. One wonders whether these evolutionary changes alter or disrupt the originality of the Kissick paradigms themselves. Methods: Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to evaluate the Kissick hypothetical relationships among the unobserved constructs of cost, quality, and access in hospitals for the year 2018. Hospital data were obtained from Definitive Healthcare, a subscription site that contains Medicare data as well as non-Medicare data for networks, hospitals, and clinics (final n = 2766). Results: Reporting significant net effects as defined by our chosen study variables, we find that as quality increases, costs increase, as access increases, quality increases, and as access increases, costs increase. Policy and Practice Implications: Our findings lend continued relevance to a balanced approach to health care policy reform efforts. Simultaneously bending the health care cost curve, increasing access to care, and advancing quality of care is as challenging now as it was when the Kissick model was originally conceived.

Trends of amenable deaths due to healthcare within the European Union countries. Exploring the association with the economic crisis and education

The study of premature deaths from causes that are generally preventable given the current availability of healthcare - called amenable deaths due to healthcare - provides information on the quality of services. However, they are not only impacted by healthcare characteristics: other factors are also likely to influence. Therefore, identifying the association between amenable deaths due to healthcare and health determinants, such as education, might be the key to preventing these deaths in the future. Still unclear however, is how this works and how amenable deaths due to healthcare are distributed and evolve within the European Union (EU) below the national level. We therefore studied the geographical and temporal patterns of amenable deaths due to healthcare in the 259 EU regions from 1999 to 2016, including the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the post-2008 economic downturn, and identified whether any association with education exists. A cross-sectional ecological study was carried out. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we estimated the average smoothed Standardized Mortality Ratios (sSMR). A regression model was also applied to measure the relative risks (RR) at 95% credible intervals for cause-specific mortality association with education. Results show that amenable deaths due to healthcare decreased globally. Nevertheless, the decrease is not the same across all regions, and inequalities within countries do persist, with lower mortality ratios seen in regions from Central European countries and higher mortality ratios in regions from Eastern European countries. Also, the evolution trend reveals that after the financial crisis, the number of these deaths increased in regions across almost all EU countries. Moreover, educational disparities in mortality emerged, and a statistical association was found between amenable deaths due to healthcare and early exit from education and training. These results confirm that identifying and understanding the background of regional differences may lead to a better understanding of the amenable deaths due to healthcare and allow for the application of more effective policies.

Global, regional, and national survey on the burden and quality of care of pancreatic cancer: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 1990-2017

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is among the most lethal cancers worldwide, and the quality of care provided to PC patients is a vital public health concern. We aimed to investigate the quality of care of PC globally and to report its current burden.

METHODS

The Quality of Care Index (QCI) was achieved by performing a Principal Component Analysis utilizing the results of the GBD study 2017. The QCI was defined as a range between 0 and 100, in which higher QCIs show higher quality of care. Possible gender- and age-related inequalities in terms of QCI were explored based on WHO world regions and the sociodemographic index (SDI).

RESULTS

In 2017, Japan had the highest QCI among all countries (QCI = 99/100), followed by Australia (QCI = 83/100) and the United States (QCI = 76/100). In Japan and Australia, males and females had almost the same QCIs in 2017, while in the United States, females had lower QCIs than males. In contrast to these high-QCI nations, African countries had the lowest QCIs in 2017. Besides, QCI increased by SDI, and high-SDI regions had the highest QCIs. Regarding patients' age, elderly cases had higher QCIs than younger patients globally and in high-SDI regions.

CONCLUSION

This study provides clinicians and health authorities with a wider vision around the quality of care of PC worldwide and highlights the existing disparities. This could help them investigate possible effective strategies to improve the quality of care in regions with lower QCIs and higher gender- and age-related inequities.

A Machine-Learning-Based System for Prediction of Cardiovascular and Chronic Respiratory Diseases

Cardiovascular and chronic respiratory diseases are global threats to public health and cause approximately 19 million deaths worldwide annually. This high mortality rate can be reduced with the use of technological advancements in medical science that can facilitate continuous monitoring of physiological parameters-blood pressure, cholesterol levels, blood glucose, etc. The futuristic values of these critical physiological or vital sign parameters not only enable in-time assistance from medical experts and caregivers but also help patients manage their health status by receiving relevant regular alerts/advice from healthcare practitioners. In this study, we propose a machine-learning-based prediction and classification system to determine futuristic values of related vital signs for both cardiovascular and chronic respiratory diseases. Based on the prediction of futuristic values, the proposed system can classify patients' health status to alarm the caregivers and medical experts. In this machine-learning-based prediction and classification model, we have used a real vital sign dataset. To predict the next 1-3 minutes of vital sign values, several regression techniques (i.e., linear regression and polynomial regression of degrees 2, 3, and 4) have been tested. For caregivers, a 60-second prediction and to facilitate emergency medical assistance, a 3-minute prediction of vital signs is used. Based on the predicted vital signs values, the patient's overall health is assessed using three machine learning classifiers, i.e., Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naive Bayes, and Decision Tree. Our results show that the Decision Tree can correctly classify a patient's health status based on abnormal vital sign values and is helpful in timely medical care to the patients.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Variations in Quality of Care by Sex and Social Determinants of Health Among Younger Adults With Acute Myocardial Infarction in the US and Canada

IMPORTANCE

Quality of care of young adults with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) may depend on health care systems in addition to individual-level factors such as biological sex and social determinants of health (SDOH).

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether the quality of in-hospital and postacute care among young adults with AMI differs between the US and Canada and whether female sex and adverse SDOH are associated with a low quality of care.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort analysis used data from 2 large cohorts of young adults (aged ≤55 years) receiving in-hospital and outpatient care for AMI at 127 centers in the US and Canada. Data were collected from August 21, 2008, to April 30, 2013, and analyzed from July 12, 2019, to March 10, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Sex, SDOH, and health care system.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Opportunity-based quality-of-care score (QCS), determined by dividing the total number of quality indicators of care received by the total number for which the patient was eligible, with low quality of care defined as the lowest tertile of the QCS.

RESULTS

A total of 4048 adults with AMI (2345 women [57.9%]; median age, 49 [interquartile range, 44-52] years; 3004 [74.2%] in the US) were included in the analysis. Of 3416 patients with in-hospital QCS available, 1061 (31.1%) received a low QCS, including more women compared with men (725 of 2007 [36.1%] vs 336 of 1409 [23.8%]; P < .001) and more patients treated in the US vs Canada (962 of 2646 [36.4%] vs 99 of 770 [12.9%]; P < .001). Conversely, low quality of post-AMI care (748 of 2938 [25.5%]) was similarly observed for both sexes, with a higher prevalence in the US (678 of 2346 [28.9%] vs 70 of 592 [11.8%]). In adjusted analyses, female sex was not associated with low QCS for in-hospital (odds ratio [OR], 1.05; 95% CI, 0.87-1.28) and post-AMI (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.88-1.30) care. Conversely, being treated in the US was associated with low in-hospital (OR, 2.93; 95% CI, 2.16-3.99) and post-AMI (OR, 2.67; 95% CI, 1.97-3.63) QCS, regardless of sex. Of all SDOH, only employment was associated with higher quality of in-hospital care (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.59-0.88). Finally, only in the US, low quality of in-hospital care was associated with a higher 1-year cardiac readmissions rate (234 of 962 [24.3%]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that beyond sex, health care systems and SDOH that depict social vulnerability are associated with quality of AMI care. Taking into account SDOH among young adults with AMI may improve quality of care and reduce readmissions, especially in the US.

What intensive care registries can teach us about outcomes

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Critical care registries are synonymous with measurement of outcomes following critical illness. Their ability to provide longitudinal data to enable benchmarking of outcomes for comparison within units over time, and between units, both regionally and nationally is a key part of the evaluation of quality of care and ICU performance as well as a better understanding of case-mix. This review aims to summarize literature on outcome measures currently being reported in registries internationally, describe the current strengths and challenges with interpreting existing outcomes and highlight areas where registries may help improve implementation and interpretation of both existing and new outcome measures.

RECENT FINDINGS

Outcomes being widely reported through ICU registries include measures of survival, events of interest, patient-reported outcomes and measures of resource utilization (including cost). Despite its increasing adoption, challenges with quality of reporting of outcomes measures remain. Measures of short-term survival are feasible but those requiring longer follow-ups are increasingly difficult to interpret given the evolving nature of critical care in the context of acute and chronic disease management. Furthermore, heterogeneity in patient populations and in healthcare organisations in different settings makes use of outcome measures for international benchmarking at best complex, requiring substantial advances in their definitions and implementation to support those seeking to improve patient care.

SUMMARY

Digital registries could help overcome some of the current challenges with implementing and interpreting ICU outcome data through standardization of reporting and harmonization of data. In addition, ICU registries could be instrumental in enabling data for feedback as part of improvement in both patient-centred outcomes and in service outcomes; notably resource utilization and efficiency.

Singapore's health-care system: key features, challenges, and shifts

Since Singapore became an independent nation in 1965, the development of its health-care system has been underpinned by an emphasis on personal responsibility for health, and active government intervention to ensure access and affordability through targeted subsidies and to reduce unnecessary costs. Singapore is achieving good health outcomes, with a total health expenditure of 4·47% of gross domestic product in 2016. However, the health-care system is contending with increased stress, as reflected in so-called pain points that have led to public concern, including shortages in acute hospital beds and intermediate and long-term care (ILTC) services, and high out-of-pocket payments. The main drivers of these challenges are the rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases and rapid population ageing, limitations in the delivery and organisation of primary care and ILTC, and financial incentives that might inadvertently impede care integration. To address these challenges, Singapore's Ministry of Health implemented a comprehensive set of reforms in 2012 under its Healthcare 2020 Masterplan. These reforms substantially increased the capacity of public hospital beds and ILTC services in the community, expanded subsidies for primary care and long-term care, and introduced a series of financing health-care reforms to strengthen financial protection and coverage. However, it became clear that these measures alone would not address the underlying drivers of system stress in the long term. Instead, the system requires, and is making, much more fundamental changes to its approach. In 2016, the Ministry of Health encapsulated the required shifts in terms of the so-called Three Beyonds-namely, beyond health care to health, beyond hospital to community, and beyond quality to value.

Influence of age on surgical treatment and postoperative outcomes of patients with colorectal cancer in Denmark and Yorkshire, England

AIM

Denmark and Yorkshire are demographically similar and both have undergone changes in their management of colorectal cancer to improve outcomes. The differential provision of surgical treatment, especially in the older age groups, may contribute to the magnitude of improved survival rates. This study aimed to identify differences in the management of colorectal cancer surgery and postoperative outcomes according to patient age between Denmark and Yorkshire.

METHOD

This was a retrospective population-based study of colorectal cancer patients diagnosed in Denmark and Yorkshire between 2005 and 2016. Proportions of patients undergoing major surgical resection, postoperative mortality and relative survival were compared between Denmark and Yorkshire across several age groups (18-59, 60-69, 70-79 and ≥80 years) and over time.

RESULTS

The use of major surgical resection was higher in Denmark than in Yorkshire, especially for patients aged ≥80 years (70.5% versus 50.5% for colon cancer, 49.3% versus 38.1% for rectal cancer). Thirty-day postoperative mortality for Danish patients aged ≥80 years was significantly higher than that for Yorkshire patients with colonic cancer [OR (95% CI) = 1.22 (1.07, 1.38)] but not for rectal cancer or for 1-year postoperative mortality. Relative survival significantly increased in all patients aged ≥80 years except for Yorkshire patients with colonic cancer.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that there are major differences between the management of elderly patients with colorectal cancer between the two populations. Improved selection for surgery and better peri- and postoperative care in these patients appears to improve long-term outcomes, but may come at the cost of a higher 30-day mortality.

Hypertension among Mongolian adults in China: A cross-sectional study of prevalence, awareness, treatment, control, and related factors: Hypertension among Mongolian adults in China

The objectives of the study were to comprehend the prevalence of hypertension (HTN) and prehypertension (PHT), awareness, treatment, and control of HTN and its distribution in urban, agricultural, pastoral, and semi-agricultural/semi-pastoral areas, and to explore the related factors of HTN among Mongolian adults in China. From August 2018 to August 2020, a multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling method was conducted to investigate the prevalence of HTN among Mongolian adults aged ≥18 years living in China (n = 2558). Inclusion criteria for HTN were systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mm Hg and/or had hypertensive history and/or taking antihypertensive drugs for HTN. The prevalence rates of HTN and PHT were 44.77% and 32.03%, respectively. The prevalence rates of PHT in urban, agricultural, pastoral, and semi-agricultural/semi-pastoral areas were 34.93%, 34.73%, 26.03%, and 33.44%, respectively, and the prevalence rates of HTN were 35.97%, 40.15%, 49.68%, and 48.07%, respectively. The awareness, treatment and control rates of HTN were 66.48%, 58.93%, and 16.48%, respectively. In this survey, the overweight, obesity, and central obesity rates were 34.30%, 30.67%, and 58.08%, respectively. Compared with Chinese adults ≥18 years, the prevalence rate of HTN among Mongolian adults in China aged ≥ 18 years was relatively high; the prevalence rate of PHT and HTN awareness, treatment, and control rates were similar. The prevalence of HTN and the rates of obesity and central obesity were higher in pastoral regions than in the other three types of regions, and the rate of overweight was highest in agricultural regions.

Global Surgery Indicators and Pediatric Hydrocephalus: A Multicenter Cross-Country Comparative Study Building the Case for Health System Strengthening

Objective: The aim of this study is to compare specific three-institution, cross-country data that are relevant to the Global Surgery indicators and the functioning of health systems. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the clinical and socioeconomic characteristics of pediatric patients who underwent cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) diversion surgery for hydrocephalus in three different centers: the University of Tsukuba Hospital in Ibaraki, Japan (HIC), the Jose R. Reyes Memorial Medical Center in Manila, Philippines [low-to-middle-income country (LMIC)], and the Federal Neurosurgical Center in Novosibirsk, Russia (UMIC). The outcomes of interest were the timing of CSF diversion surgery and mortality. Statistical tests included descriptive statistics, Cox proportional hazards model, and logistic regression. Nation-level data were also obtained to provide the relevant socioeconomic contexts in discussing the results. Results: In total, 159 children were included, where 13 are from Japan, 99 are from the Philippines, and 47 are from the Russian Federation. The median time to surgery at the specific neurosurgical centers was 6 days in the Philippines and 1 day in both Japan and Russia. For the cohort from the Philippines, non-poor patients were more likely to receive CSF diversion surgery at an earlier time (HR = 4.74, 95% CI 2.34-9.61, p <0.001). In the same center, those with infantile or posthemorrhagic hydrocephalus (HR = 3.72, 95% CI 1.70-8.15, p = 0.001) were more likely to receive CSF diversion earlier compared to those with congenital hydrocephalus, and those with postinfectious (HR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.22-0.70, p = 0.002) or myelomeningocele-associated hydrocephalus (HR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.22-0.95, p = 0.037) were less likely to undergo surgery at an earlier time. For Russia, older patients were more likely to receive or require early CSF diversion (HR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.01-1.14, p = 0.035). External ventricular drain (EVD) insertion was found to be associated with mortality (cOR 14.45, 95% CI 1.28-162.97, p = 0.031). Conclusion: In this study, Filipino children underwent late time-interval of CSF diversion surgery and had mortality differences compared to their Japanese and Russian counterparts. These disparities may reflect on the functioning of the health systems of respective countries.

Impact of adverse events on patient outcomes in a Japanese intensive care unit: a retrospective observational study

Aim

We investigated adverse events (AEs) in a Japanese intensive care unit (ICU) and evaluated the impact of cause‐specific AEs on mortality and length of stay.

Design

A retrospective observational study in the ICU of an academic hospital.

Methods

We reviewed medical records with the Global Trigger Tool.

Results

Of the 246 patients, 126 (51%) experienced one or more AEs with an incidence of 201 per 1000 patient‐days and 115 per 100 admissions. A total of 294 AEs were detected with 119 (42%) adverse drug events, 67 (24%) procedural complications, 63 (22%) surgical complications, 26 (9%) nosocomial infections, 5 (2%) therapeutic errors and 4 (1%) diagnostic errors. Adverse event (AE) presence was associated with length of ICU stay (β = 2.85, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09–4.61). Adverse drug events, procedural complications and nosocomial infections were strongly associated with length of ICU stay (β = 2.38, 95% CI: 0.77–3.98; β = 3.75, 95% CI: 2.03–5.48; β = 6.52, 95% CI: 4.07–8.97 respectively).

Trust In Governments And Health Workers Low Globally, Influencing Attitudes Toward Health Information, Vaccines

Trust, particularly during emergencies, is essential for effective health care delivery and health policy implementation. We used data from the 2018 Wellcome Global Monitor survey (comprising nationally representative samples from 144 countries) to examine levels and correlates of trust in governments and health workers and attitudes toward vaccines. Only one-quarter of respondents globally expressed a lot of trust in their government (trust was more common among people with less schooling, those living in rural areas, those who were financially comfortable, and those who were older), and fewer than half of respondents globally said that they trust doctors and nurses a lot. People's trust in these institutions was correlated with trust in health or medical advice from them, and with more positive attitudes toward vaccines. Vaccine enthusiasm varied substantially across regions, with safety being the most common concern. Policy makers should understand that the public may have varying levels of trust in different institutions and actors. Although much attention is paid to crafting public health messages, it may be equally important, especially during a pandemic, to identify appropriate, trusted messengers to deliver those messages more effectively to different target populations.

Assessing variation among the national essential medicines lists of 21 high-income countries: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

Essential medicines lists have been created and used globally in countries that range from low-income to high-income status. The aim of this paper is to compare the essential medicines list of high-income countries with each other, the WHO's Model List of Essential Medicines and the lists of countries of other income statuses.

DESIGN

High-income countries were defined by World Bank classification. High-income essential medicines lists were assessed for medicine inclusion and were compared with the subset of high-income countries, the WHO's Model List and 137 national essential medicines lists. Medicine lists were obtained from the Global Essential Medicines database. Countries were subdivided by income status, and the groups' most common medicines were compared. Select medicines and medicine classes were assessed for inclusion among high-income country lists.

RESULTS

The 21 high-income countries identified were most like each other when compared with other lists. They were more like upper middle-income countries and least like low-income countries. There was significant variability in the number of medicines on each list. Less than half (48%) of high-income countries included a newer diabetes medicines in their list. Most countries (71%) included naloxone while every country including at least one opioid medicine. More than half of the lists (52%) included a medicine that has been globally withdrawn or banned.

CONCLUSION

Essential medicines lists of high-income countries are similar to each other, but significant variations in essential medicine list composition and specifically the number of medications included were noted. Effective medicines were left off several countries' lists, and globally recalled medicines were included on over half the lists. Comparing the essential medicines lists of countries within the same income status category can provide a useful subset of lists for policymakers and essential medicine list creators to use when creating or maintaining their lists.

Health expenditures by services and providers for 195 countries, 2000-2017

Introduction

National Health Accounts are a significant source of health expenditure data, designed to be comprehensive and comparable across countries. However, there is currently no single repository of this data and even when compiled major gaps persist. This research aims to provide policymakers and researchers with a single repository of available national health expenditures by healthcare functions (ie, services) and providers of such services. Leveraging these data within statistical methods, a complete set of detailed health expenditures is estimated.

Methods

A methodical compilation and synthesis of all available national health expenditure reports including disaggregation by healthcare functions and providers was conducted. Using these data, a Bayesian multivariate regression analysis was implemented to estimate national-level health expenditures by the cross-classification of functions and providers for 195 countries, from 2000 to 2017.

Results

This research used 1662 country-years and 110 070 data points of health expenditures from existing National Health Accounts. The most detailed country-year had 52% of the categories of interest reported. Of all health functions, curative care and medical goods were estimated to make up 51.4% (uncertainty interval (UI) 33.2% to 59.4%) and 17.5% (UI 13.0% to 26.9%) of total global health expenditures in 2017, respectively. Three-quarters of the global health expenditures are allocated to three categories of providers: hospital providers (35.4%, UI 30.3% to 38.9%), providers of ambulatory care (25.5%, UI 21.1% to 28.8%) and retailers of medical goods (14.4%, UI 12.4% to 16.3%). As gross domestic product increases, countries spend more on long-term care and less on preventive care.

Conclusion

Disaggregated estimates of health expenditures are often unavailable and unable to provide policymakers and researchers a holistic understanding of how expenditures are used. This research aggregates reported data and provides a complete time-series of estimates, with uncertainty, of health expenditures by health functions and providers between 2000 and 2017 for 195 countries.

Radiologists' Increasing Role in Population Health Management: AJR Expert Panel Narrative Review

Population health management (PHM) is the holistic process of improving health outcomes of groups of individuals through the support of appropriate financial and care models. Radiologists' presence at the intersection of many aspects of healthcare, including screening, diagnostic imaging, and image-guided therapies, provides significant opportunity for increased radiologist engagement in PHM. Further, innovations in artificial intelligence and imaging informatics will serve as critical tools to improve value in healthcare through evidence-based and equitable approaches. Given radiologists' limited engagement in PHM to date, it is imperative to define the specialty's PHM priorities so that the radiologists' full value in improving population health is realized. In this expert review, we explore programs and future directions for radiology in PHM.

What factors affect patients' ability to access healthcare? An overview of systematic reviews

OBJECTIVES

This overview aims to synthesise global evidence on factors affecting healthcare access, and variations across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) vs. high-income countries (HICs); to develop understanding of where barriers to healthcare access lie, and in what context, to inform tailored policies aimed at improving access to healthcare for all who need it.

METHODS

An overview of systematic reviews guided by a published protocol was conducted. Medline, Embase, Global Health and Cochrane Systematic Reviews databases were searched for published articles. Additional searches were conducted on the Gates Foundation, WHO and World Bank websites. Study characteristics and findings (barriers and facilitators to healthcare access) were documented and summarised. The methodological quality of included studies was assessed using an adapted version of the AMSTAR 2 tool.

RESULTS

Fifty-eight articles were included, 23 presenting findings from LMICs and 35 presenting findings from HICs. While many barriers to healthcare access occur in HICs as well as LMICs, the way they are experienced is quite different. In HICs, there is a much greater emphasis on patient experience; as compared to the physical absence of care in LMICs.

CONCLUSIONS

As countries move towards universal healthcare access, evaluation methods that account for health system and wider cultural factors that impact capacity to provide care, healthcare finance systems and the socio-cultural environment of the setting are required. Consequently, methods employed in HICs may not be appropriate in LMICs due to the stark differences in these areas.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD): assessment, prediction and policy implications

BACKGROUND

The study aims to predict and assess cardiovascular disease (CVD) patterns in highly affected countries such as Pakistan, India, China, Kenya, the USA, and Sweden. The data for CVD deaths was gathered from 2005 to 2019.

METHODS

We utilized non-homogenous discrete grey model (NDGM) to predict growth of cardiovascular deaths in selected countries. We take this process a step further by utilizing novel Synthetic Relative Growth Rate (RGR) and Synthetic Doubling Time (Dt) model to assess how many years it takes to reduce the cardiovascular deaths double in numbers.

RESULTS

The results reveal that the USA and China may lead in terms of raising its number of deaths caused by CVDs till 2027. However, doubling time model suggests that USA may require 2.3 years in reducing the cardiovascular deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is significant for the policymakers and health practitioners to ensure the execution of CVD prevention measures to overcome the growing burden of CVD deaths.

The effect of inositol supplementation on blood pressure: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized-controlled trials

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Potential effects of inositol supplementation on blood pressure (BP) have been examined in several interventional studies. Nevertheless, findings in this context are controversial. Therefore, the current systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to comprehensively assess the impact of inositol supplementation on BP.

METHODS

Five online databases including Web of Science, Scopus, Embase, Cochrane, Google Scholar, and PubMed were systematically searched from inception to March 2020. We included all randomized clinical trials (RCTs) evaluating the effects of inositol supplementation on systolic blood pressure (SBP) and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in humans.

RESULTS

The random-effects meta-analysis of 7 eligible RCTs demonstrated the significant decline in both SBP (WMD - 5.69 mmHg; 95% CI - 7.35 to - 4.02, P < 0.001) and DBP (WMD - 7.12 mmHg; 95% CI - 10.18 to - 4.05, P < 0.001) following supplementation with inositol. Subgroup analysis showed that studies performed in individuals with metabolic syndrome with a longer duration (>8 weeks) and a dose of 4000 mg resulted in a more effective reduction in SBP and DBP with acceptable homogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

The current meta-analysis, indicated that supplementation with inositol significantly decrease SBP and DBP. Further large-scale RCTs with better design are needed to confirm these findings.

Use of amenable mortality indicators to evaluate the impact of financial crisis on health system performance in Greece

BACKGROUND

Greece experienced the largest reduction in its health care budget of any European country during the economic crisis of 2008-15. Here, we test the hypothesis that budget reductions worsened health system performance in Greece, using the concept of Amenable Mortality to capture deaths which should not occur in the presence of effective and timely health care.

METHODS

Amenable mortality was calculated from national mortality statistics, using age-standardized deaths from 34 conditions amenable to medical intervention in Greece during 2000-16, with further analysis by sex, age, region and cause. Mortality rate ratios and their 95% CI were also computed. Interrupted time series analyses were performed to compare trends prior to austerity measures (2001-10) with those after (2011-16), adjusting for historical trends.

RESULTS

Prior to austerity measures, amenable mortality rates were declining. After 2011, coinciding with the inception of budget reductions, the slope of decline diminished significantly. The average annual percent of change in standardized death rates was 2.65% in 2001-10, falling to 1.60% in 2011-6. In 10 of 34 conditions, the SDR increased significantly after the crisis onset, and in five more conditions the long-term decline reversed, to increasing after 2011. The age-specific mortality rates observed in 2011-16 were significantly higher than those expected at ages 0-4 and 65-74 but not significantly higher in all other age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Health system performance in Greece worsened in association with austerity measures, leading to a deceleration of the decline in amenable mortality and increased mortality from several conditions amenable to medical interventions.

Disease Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease Due to Hypertension From 1990 to 2019: A Global Analysis

Background: Although it is widely known that hypertension is an important cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD), little detailed quantitative research exists on the burden of CKD due to hypertension.

Objective: The objective of the study is to estimate the global disease burden of CKD due to hypertension and to evaluate the association between the socioeconomic factors and country-level disease burden of CKD due to hypertension.

Methods: We extracted the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) numbers, rates, and age-standardized rates of CKD due to hypertension from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database to investigate the time trends of the burden of CKD due to hypertension from 1990 to 2019. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was performed to evaluate the correlations between the age-standardized DALY rate and socioeconomic factors and other related factors obtained from open databases.

Results: Globally, from 1990 to 2019, DALY numbers caused by CKD due to hypertension increased by 125.2% [95% confidential interval (CI), 124.6 to 125.7%]. The DALY rate increased by 55.7% (55.3 to 56.0%) to 128.8 (110.9 to 149.2) per 100,000 population, while the age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 population increased by 10.9% (10.3 to 11.5%). In general, males and elderly people tended to have a higher disease burden. The distribution disparity in the burden of CKD due to hypertension varies greatly among countries. In the stepwise multiple linear regression model, inequality-adjusted human development index (IHDI) [β = −161.1 (95% CI −238.1 to −84.2), P < 0.001] and number of physicians per 10,000 people [β = −2.91 (95% CI −4.02 to −1.80), P < 0.001] were significantly negatively correlated with age-standardized DALY rate when adjusted for IHDI, health access and quality (HAQ), number of physicians per 10,000 people, and population with at least some secondary education.

Conclusion: Improving the average achievements and equality of distribution in health, education, and income, as well as increasing the number of physicians per 10,000 people could help to reduce the burden of CKD due to hypertension. These findings may provide relevant information toward efforts to optimize health policies aimed at reducing the burden of CKD due to hypertension.

The short-term association of ambient fine particulate air pollution with hypertension clinic visits: A multi-community study in Guangzhou, China

BACKGROUND

The association of ambient fine particulate pollution with daily outpatient clinic visits (OCV) for hypertension in China remains to be investigated.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine short-term impacts of exposure to fine particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter < 2.5μm (PM_2.5) on daily OCV for hypertension, using a large-scale multi-center community database in Guangzhou, one of the most densely-populated cities in Southern China.

METHODS

We collected a total of 28,548 individual records of OCV from 22 community healthcare facilities in Guangzhou from January 1st to May 7th 2020. Hourly data on air pollutants and daily information on meteorological factors were obtained. According to the World Health Organization air-quality guidelines, daily excessive concentration hours (DECH) was calculated. PM_2.5 daily mean, hourly-peak concentration and DECH were used as the exposure variables. Based on a case-time-control design, the Cox regression model was applied to evaluate the short-term relative risks (RR) of daily OCV for hypertension. Sensitivity analyses were conducted, with nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ozone being adjusted.

RESULTS

Daily mean and hourly-peak of PM_2.5 were significantly associated with daily OCV for hypertension, while weaker associations were observed for DECH. The estimated RRs at lag day 0 were 1.039 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.037, 1.040), 1.851 (95%CI: 1.814, 1.888), and 1.287 (95%CI: 1.276, 1.298), respectively, in association with a 1-unit increase in DECH, daily mean, and hourly-peak concentration of PM_2.5. For the lagged effect, lag₄ models estimated the greatest RRs for PM_2.5 DECH and hourly-peak, whereas a lag₂ model produced the highest for PM_2.5 daily mean.

DISCUSSION

This study consolidates the evidence for a positive correlation between ambient PM_2.5 exposure and risks of hypertensive OCV. It also provides profound insight regarding planning for health services needs and establishing early environmental responses to the worsening air pollution in the communities.

Refugee and Immigrant Community Health Champions: a Qualitative Study of Perceived Barriers to Service Access and Utilisation of the National Health Service (NHS) in the West Midlands, UK

There has been much discussion recently that better healthcare systems lead to increased service access and utilisation. However, there are still concerns raised among the refugee and immigrant communities about barriers to access and utilisation of primary healthcare services in the UK. This study aimed to explore with refugee and immigrant community health champions (CHCs) their perceptions about such barriers based on feedback in their own discussions with fellow refugees, asylum-seekers and immigrants in the West Midlands, UK. A total of 42 refugees and immigrants were recruited. Qualitative design-focused group discussions were conducted among purposively selected participants. These discussions were conducted between May and September 2019, and data were analysed using thematic analysis. The barriers to service access and utilisation are categorised into four themes: (i) knowledge about health issues that most affected refugees and immigrants; (ii) community indications of factors that obstructed service access; (iii) challenges in identifying local teams involved in service provision; and (iv) accurate knowledge about the different teams and their roles in facilitating access. This study higlighted that the levels of service access and utilisation would depend on the competence and effectiveness of the health system. Urgency and seriousness of individuals' healthcare needs were the factors that were perceived to strongly influence refugees and immigrants to seek and utilise local services. We identified a number of potential barriers and challenges to service access and utilisation that should be overcome if primary healthcare service is to be planned and delivered effectively, efficiently and equitably in the West Midlands.

Multimorbidity and Subjective Cognitive Complaints: Findings from 48 Low- and Middle-Income Countries of the World Health Survey 2002-2004

BACKGROUND

Data on the association between multimorbidity and subjective cognitive complaints (SCC) are lacking from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between multimorbidity and SCC among adults from 48 LMICs.

METHODS

Cross-sectional, community-based data were analyzed from the World Health Survey 2002-2004. Ten chronic conditions (angina, arthritis, asthma, chronic back pain, depression, diabetes, edentulism, hearing problems, tuberculosis, visual impairment) were assessed. Two questions on subjective memory and learning complaints in the past 30 days were used to create a SCC scale ranging from 0 (No SCC) to 100 (worse SCC). Multivariable linear regression and mediation analyses were conducted to explore the associations.

RESULTS

A total of 224,842 individuals aged≥18 years [mean (SD) age 38.3 (16.0) years; 49.3% males] constituted the final sample. Compared to no chronic conditions, the mean SCC score was higher by 7.13 (95% CI = 6.57-7.69), 14.84 (95% CI = 13.91-15.77), 21.10 (95% CI = 19.49-22.70), 27.48 (95% CI = 25.20-29.76), and 33.99 (95% CI = 31.45-36.53) points for 1, 2, 3, 4, and≥5 chronic conditions. Estimates by sex and age groups (18-44, 45-64,≥65 years) were similar. Nearly 30% of the association between multimorbidity (i.e.,≥2 chronic conditions) and SCC was explained by psychological factors (i.e., perceived stress, sleep problems, anxiety symptoms).

CONCLUSION

Multimorbidity is associated with SCC among adults in LMICs. Future studies should investigate whether addressing psychological factors in people with multimorbidity can improve cognitive function, and whether screening for SCC in individuals with multimorbidity can be a useful tool to identify individuals at particularly high risk for future cognitive decline.

Understanding non-communicable diseases: combining health surveillance with local knowledge to improve rural primary health care in South Africa

Background: NCDs are non-infectious, long-term conditions that account for 40 million deaths per annum. 87% of premature NCD mortality occurs in low- and middle-income countries.

Objective: The aims were:develop methods to provide integrated biosocial accounts of NCD mortality; and explore the practical utility of extended mortality data for the primary health care system.

Methods: We drew on data from research programmes in the study area. Data were analysed in three steps: [a]analysis of levels, causes and circumstances of NCD mortality [n = 4,166] from routine census updates including Verbal Autopsy and of qualitative data on lived experiences of NCDs in rural villages from participatory research; [b] identifying areas of convergence and divergence between the analyses; and [c]exploration of the practical relevance of the data drawing on engagements with health systems stakeholders.

Results: NCDs constituted a significant proportion of mortality in this setting [36%]. VA data revealed multiple barriers to access in end-of-life care. Many deaths were attributed to problems with resources and health systems [21%;19% respectively]. The qualitative research provided rich complementary detail on the processes through which risk originates, accumulates and is expressed in access to end-of-life care, related to chronic poverty and perceptions of poor quality care in clinics. The exploration of practical relevance revealed chronic under-funding for NCD services, and an acute need for robust, timely data on the NCD burden.

Conclusions: VA data allowed a significant burden of NCD mortality to be quantified and revealed barriers to access at and around the time of death. Qualitative research contextualised these barriers, providing explanations of how and why they exist and persist. Health systems analysis revealed shortages of resources allocated to NCDs and a need for robust research to provide locally relevant evidence to organise and deliver care. Pragmatic interdisciplinary and mixed method analysis provides relevant renditions of complex problems to inform more effective responses.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Is Africa Different?

COVID-19 has now spread to all the continents of the world with the possible exception of Antarctica. However, Africa appears different when compared with all the other continents. The absence of exponential growth and the low mortality rates contrary to that experienced in other continents, and contrary to the projections for Africa by various agencies, including the World Health Organization (WHO) has been a puzzle to many. Although Africa is the second most populous continent with an estimated 17.2% of the world's population, the continent accounts for only 5% of the total cases and 3% of the mortality. Mortality for the whole of Africa remains at a reported 19,726 as at August 01, 2020. The onset of the pandemic was later, the rate of rise has been slower and the severity of illness and case fatality rates have been lower in comparison to other continents. In addition, contrary to what had been documented in other continents, the occurrence of the renal complications in these patients also appeared to be much lower. This report documents the striking differences between the continents and within the continent of Africa itself and then attempts to explain the reasons for these differences. It is hoped that information presented in this review will help policymakers in the fight to contain the pandemic, particularly within Africa with its resource-constrained health care systems.

Variation in Health Care Access and Quality Among US States and High-Income Countries With Universal Health Insurance Coverage

IMPORTANCE

Based on mortality estimates for 32 causes of death that are amenable to health care, the US health care system did not perform as well as other high-income countries, scoring 88.7 out of 100 on the 2016 age-standardized Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) index.

OBJECTIVE

To compare US age-specific HAQ scores with those of high-income countries with universal health insurance coverage and compare scores among US states with varying insurance coverage.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study used 2016 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factor study results for cause-specific mortality with adjustments for behavioral and environmental risks to estimate the age-specific HAQ indices. The US national age-specific HAQ scores were compared with high-income peers (Canada, western Europe, high-income Asia Pacific countries, and Australasia) in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2016, and the 2016 scores among US states were also analyzed. The Public Use Microdata Sample of the American Community Survey was used to estimate insurance coverage and the median income per person by age and state. Age-specific HAQ scores for each state in 2010 and 2016 were regressed based on models with age fixed effects and age interaction with insurance coverage, median income, and year. Data were analyzed from April to July 2018 and July to September 2020.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The age-specific HAQ indices were the outcome measures.

RESULTS

In 1990, US age-specific HAQ scores were similar to peers but increased less from 1990 to 2016 than peer locations for ages 15 years or older. For example, for ages 50 to 54 years, US scores increased from 77.1 to 82.1 while high-income Asia Pacific scores increased from 71.6 to 88.2. In 2016, several states had scores comparable with peers, with large differences in performance across states. For ages 15 years or older, the age-specific HAQ scores were 85 or greater for all ages in 3 states (Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Minnesota) and 75 or less for at least 1 age category in 6 states. In regression analysis estimates with state-fixed effects, insurance coverage coefficients for ages 20 to 24 years were 0.059 (99% CI, 0.006-0.111); 45 to 49 years, 0.088 (99% CI, 0.009-0.167); and 50 to 54 years, 0.101 (99% CI, 0.013-0.189). A 10% increase in insurance coverage was associated with point increases in HAQ scores among the ages of 20 to 24 years (0.59 [99% CI, 0.06-1.11]), 45 to 49 years (0.88 [99% CI, 0.09-1.67]), and 50 to 54 years (1.01 [99% CI, 0.13-1.89]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional study, the US age-specific HAQ scores for ages 15 to 64 years were low relative to high-income peer locations with universal health insurance coverage. Among US states, insurance coverage was associated with higher HAQ scores for some ages. Further research with causal models and additional explanations is warranted.

Comparing Pediatric Gastroenteritis Emergency Department Care in Canada and the United States

BACKGROUND

Between-country variation in health care resource use and its impact on outcomes in acute care settings have been challenging to disentangle from illness severity by using administrative data.

METHODS

We conducted a preplanned analysis employing patient-level emergency department (ED) data from children enrolled in 2 previously conducted clinical trials. Participants aged 3 to <48 months with <72 hours of gastroenteritis were recruited in pediatric EDs in the United States (N = 10 sites; 588 participants) and Canada (N = 6 sites; 827 participants). The primary outcome was an unscheduled health care provider visit within 7 days; the secondary outcomes were intravenous fluid administration and hospitalization at or within 7 days of the index visit.

RESULTS

In adjusted analysis, unscheduled revisits within 7 days did not differ (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.72; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50 to 1.02). At the index ED visit, although participants in Canada were assessed as being more dehydrated, intravenous fluids were administered more frequently in the United States (aOR: 4.6; 95% CI: 2.9 to 7.1). Intravenous fluid administration rates did not differ after enrollment (aOR: 1.4; 95% CI: 0.7 to 2.8; US cohort with Canadian as referent). Overall, intravenous rehydration was higher in the United States (aOR: 3.8; 95% CI: 2.5 to 5.7). Although hospitalization rates during the 7 days after enrollment (aOR: 1.1; 95% CI: 0.4 to 2.6) did not differ, hospitalization at the index visit was more common in the United States (3.9% vs 2.3%; aOR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.6 to 6.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Among children with gastroenteritis and similar disease severity, revisit rates were similar in our 2 study cohorts, despite lower rates of intravenous rehydration and hospitalization in Canadian-based EDs.

Improved Inpatient Care through Greater Patient-Doctor Contact under the Hospitalist Management Approach: A Real-Time Assessment

Objective: To examine the difference between hospitalist and non-hospitalist frequency of patient–doctor contact, duration of contact, cumulative contact time, and the amount of time taken by the doctor to resolve an issue in response to a medical call. Research Design and Measures: Data from 18 facilities and 36 wards (18 hospitalist wards and 18 non-hospitalist wards) were collected. The patient–doctor contact slip and medical call response slips were given to each inpatient ward to record. A total of 28,926 contacts occurred with 2990 patients, and a total of 8435 medical call responses occurred with 3329 patients. Multivariate logistic regression analyses and regression analyses were used for statistical analyses. Results: The average frequency of patient–doctor contact during a hospital stay was 10.0 times per patient for hospitalist patients. Using regression analyses, hospitalist patients had more contact with the attending physician (β = 5.6, standard error (SE) = 0.28, p < 0.0001). Based on cumulative contact time, hospitalists spent significantly more time with the patient (β = 32.29, SE = 1.54, p < 0.0001). After a medical call to resolve the issue, doctors who took longer than 10 min were 4.14 times (95% CI 3.15–5.44) and those who took longer than 30 min were 4.96 times (95% CI 2.75–8.95) more likely to be non-hospitalists than hospitalists. Conclusion: This study found that hospitalists devoted more time to having frequent encounters with patients. Therefore, inpatient care by a hospitalist who manages inpatient care from admission to discharge could improve the care quality.

Health Care Resources and 24,910 Deaths Due to Traffic Accidents: An Ecological Mortality Study in Poland

Background: Deaths due to traffic accidents are preventable and the access to health care is an important determinant of traffic accident case fatality. This study aimed to assess the relation between mortality due to traffic accidents and health care resources (HCR), at the population level, in 66 sub-regions of Poland. Methods: An area-based HCR index was delivered from the rates of physicians, nurses, and hospital beds. Associations between mortality from traffic accidents and the HCR index were tested using multivariate Poisson regression models. Results: In the sub-regions studied, the average mortality from traffic accidents was 11.7 in 2010 and 9.3/100.000 in 2015. After adjusting for sex, age and over time trends in mortality, out-of-hospital deaths were more frequently compared to hospitalized fatal cases (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.68, 95% CI 1.45–1.93). Compared to sub-regions with high HCR, mortality from traffic accidents was higher in sub-regions with low and moderate HCR (IRR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.11–1.42 and IRR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.02–1.38, respectively), which reflected the differences in out-of-hospital mortality most pronounced in car accidents. Conclusions: Poor HCR is an important factor that explains the territorial differentiation of mortality due to traffic accidents in Poland. The high percentage of out-of-hospital deaths indicates the importance of preventive measures and the need for improvement in access to health care to reduce mortality due to traffic accidents.

Chronic care model in the diabetes pay-for-performance program in Taiwan: Benefits, challenges and future directions

In this review, we discuss the chronic care model (CCM) in relation to the diabetes pay-for-performance (P4P) program in Taiwan. We first introduce the 6 components of the CCM and provide a detailed description of each of the activities in the P4P program implemented in Taiwan, mapping them onto the 6 components of the CCM. For each CCM component, the following three topics are described: the definition of the CCM component, the general activities implemented related to this component, and practical and empirical practices based on hospital or local government cases. We then conclude by describing the possible successful features of this P4P program and its challenges and future directions. We conclude that the successful characteristics of this P4P program in Taiwan include its focus on extrinsic and intrinsic incentives (i.e., shared care network), physician-led P4P and the implementation of activities based on the CCM components. However, due to the low rate of P4P program coverage, approximately 50% of patients with diabetes cannot enjoy the benefits of CCM-related activities or receive necessary examinations. In addition, most of these CCM-related activities are not allotted an adequate amount of incentives, and these activities are mainly implemented in hospitals, which compared with primary care providers, are unable to execute these activities flexibly. All of these issues, as well as insufficient implementation of the e-CCM model, could hinder the advanced improvement of diabetes care in Taiwan.

Assessing healthcare access using the Levesque's conceptual framework- a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Countries are working hard to improve access to healthcare through Universal Healthcare Coverage. To genuinely address the problems of healthcare access, we need to recognize all the dimensions and complexities of healthcare access. Levesque's Conceptual Framework of Access to Health introduced in 2013 provides an interesting and comprehensive perspective through the five dimensions of access and the five abilities of the population to access healthcare. The objectives of this paper are to identify and analyze all empirical studies that applied Levesque's conceptual framework for access to healthcare and to explore the experiences and challenges of researchers who used this framework in developing tools for assessing access.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted by searching through four databases, for studies citing Levesque et al. 2013 to select all empirical studies focusing on healthcare access that applied the framework. An initial 1838 documents underwent title screening, followed by abstract screening, and finally full text screening by two independent reviewers. Authors of studies identified from the scoping review were also interviewed.

RESULTS

There were 31 studies identified on healthcare access using the Levesque framework either a priori, to develop assessment tool/s (11 studies), or a posteriori, to organize and analyze collected data (20 studies). From the tools used, 147 unique questions on healthcare access were collected, 91 of these explored dimensions of access while 56 were about abilities to access. Those that were designed from the patient's perspective were 73%, while 20% were for health providers, and 7% were addressed to both. Interviews from seven out of the 26 authors, showed that while there were some challenges such as instances of categorization difficulty and unequal representation of dimensions and abilities, the overall experience was positive.

CONCLUSION

Levesque's framework has been successfully used in research that explored, assessed, and measured access in various healthcare services and settings. The framework allowed researchers to comprehensively assess the complex and dynamic process of access both in the health systems and the population contexts. There is still potential room for improvement of the framework, particularly the incorporation of time-related elements of access.

Estimating the risk of suicide associated with mental disorders: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Mental disorders (MDs) are known risk factors for suicide. This systematic review updates the evidence base for this association and improves upon analytic approaches by incorporating study-level and methodological variables to account for measurement error in pooled suicide risk estimates.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted to review studies on MDs as risk factors for suicide. Relevant studies were searched using PubMed, Embase, PsychINFO, and existing reviews from 2010 to 19. Studies were eligible if they were longitudinal/case-control studies, representative of the general population, used diagnostic instruments, and quantified suicide risk. The outcome assessed was relative risks (RRs) for suicide due to MDs. A multi-level meta-regression approach was used to obtain pooled RRs adjusted for covariates and between-study effects.

FINDINGS

We identified 20 eligible studies yielding 69 RRs. Disorder type, age, sex, use of psychological autopsy, study design, and adjustment for confounders were tested as predictors of pooled suicide risk. Overall, all disorders were significant predictors of suicide with predicted adjusted RRs ranging from 4·11 [2·09, 8·09] for dysthymia to 7·64 [4·3, 13·58] for major depressive disorder.

INTERPRETATION

Our results indicate that MDs are important risk factors for suicide. This systematic review provides pooled RRs that have been adjusted for methodological sources of bias. Findings from our paper may inform suicide prevention strategies as part of national health agendas.

Health schools as an organizational form of realization of the "life course health development" concept

This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of health education in the Tatarstan Republic by establishing educational programs - Health Schools - for groups of patients with a high risk of developing potentially fatal cardiac and respiratory conditions. The concept of "Life Course Health Development" implies the development of mechanisms for personalized health management. The goal of the study is to explore the effectiveness of the specialized Health Schools in Tatarstan. For the comparative study of health education effects on the overall state of personal health, 590 patients were surveyed in a randomized controlled trial. The groups of patients were compared in relation to their health education; their health status was observed prior to and afterward undergoing the educative preventative programs and estimated in comparison between the two groups. Extrapolation of the data on Tatarstan's patient population was obtained through this study, taking into account the state of health of the Health Schools students, obtaining the regression equations of population mortality and the effects of training on it. The effectiveness of Health Schools for patients with cardiovascular pathology has been proven. However, additional efforts are required to involve a wider range of patients and increase learning effectiveness to critical levels of awareness by introducing new forms of education in Health Schools since it statistically significantly increased the awareness level regarding disease nature and preventive measures.

Variations and trends in global disease burden of age-related macular degeneration: 1990-2017

PURPOSE

To evaluate the disease burden of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and to evaluate the risk factors of disability-adjusted life years (DALY) caused by AMD.

METHODS

Country-specific DALY number, rate and age-standardized rate of AMD were acquired from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 database. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI), Human Development Index (HDI), Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IA-HDI) and other related data were obtained from published data or shared databases. Regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the correlations between the potential risk factors and the age-standardized DALY rate of AMD.

RESULTS

The DALY number doubled from 1990 to 2017, and DALY rate increased from 4.73 (95% CI: 3.19-6.54) to 6.95 (95% CI: 4.76-9.54). However, change was small after standardizing. Females tended to have severer burden. Disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates were correlated to annual PM2.5 concentration, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population with at least some secondary education (secondary education), glaucoma prevalence and gross national income (GNI) per capita. In SDI model, glaucoma, GDP, healthcare access and quality index (HAQ) and secondary education were associated with disease burden (p < 0.001). In IA-HDI model, cataract, glaucoma, PM2.5, GDP and secondary education were correlated to DALY rates (p < 0.001). In model included four components of HDI, glaucoma, PM2.5, GDP, secondary education, expected years of schooling and life expectancy at birth were associated (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Being female, older age, poor socioeconomic status and less educated are associated with a heavier disease burden of AMD. These findings would provide a basic understanding for policy making on AMD prevention and treatment.

Association of Implementation of a Comprehensive Preconception-to-Pregnancy Management Plan With Pregnancy Outcomes Among Chinese Pregnant Women With Type 1 Diabetes: The CARNATION Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effect on pregnancy outcome of integrating a comprehensive management plan for patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) into the World Health Organization universal maternal care infrastructure.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A comprehensive preconception-to-pregnancy management plan for women with T1D was implemented in 11 centers from 8 Chinese cities from 2015 to 2017. Sequential eligible pregnant women (n = 133 out of 137 initially enrolled) with T1D and singleton pregnancies attending these management centers formed the prospective cohort. The main outcome was severe adverse pregnancy outcome comprising maternal mortality, neonatal death, congenital malformations, miscarriage in the second trimester, and stillbirth. We compared pregnancy outcomes in this prospective cohort with two control groups with the same inclusion and exclusion criteria: a retrospective cohort (n = 153) of all eligible pregnant women with T1D attending the same management centers from 2012 to 2014 and a comparison cohort (n = 116) of all eligible pregnant women with T1D receiving routine care from 2015 to 2017 in 11 different centers from 7 cities.

RESULTS

The rate of severe adverse pregnancy outcome was lower in the prospective cohort (6.02%) than in either the retrospective cohort (18.30%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.31 [95% CI 0.13-0.74]) or the contemporaneous comparison cohort (25.00%; aOR 0.22 [95% CI 0.09-0.52]).

CONCLUSIONS

The substantial improvements in the prospective cohort are evidence of a potentially clinically important effect of the comprehensive management plan on pregnancy outcomes among Chinese pregnant women with pregestational T1D. This supports the development of similar approaches in other countries.

Increased Private Healthcare for Canada: Is That the Right Solution?

Medicare is a publicly funded healthcare system that is a source of national pride in Canada; however, Canadians are increasingly concerned about its performance and sustainability. One proposed solution is private financing (including both private for-profit insurance and private out-of-pocket financing) that would fundamentally change medicare. We investigate international experiences to determine if associations exist between the degree of private spending and two of the core values of medicare – universality and accessibility – as well as the values of equity and quality. We further investigate the impact of private spending on overall health system performance, health outcomes and health expenditure growth rates. Private financing (both private for-profit insurance and private out-of-pocket financing) was found to negatively affect universality, equity, accessibility and quality of care. Increased private financing was not associated with improved health outcomes, nor did it reduce health expenditure growth. Therefore, increased private financing is not the panacea proposed for improving quality or sustainability. The debate over the future of medicare should not be rooted in the source of its funding but rather in the values Canadians deem essential for their healthcare system.

Association between live childhood vaccines and COVID-19 outcomes: a national-level analysis

We investigated whether countries with higher coverage of childhood live vaccines [BCG or measles-containing-vaccine (MCV)] have reduced risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related mortality, while accounting for known systems differences between countries. In this ecological study of 140 countries using publicly available national-level data, higher vaccine coverage, representing estimated proportion of people vaccinated during the last 14 years, was associated with lower COVID-19 deaths. The associations attenuated for both vaccine variables, and MCV coverage became no longer significant once adjusted for published estimates of the Healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), a validated summary score of healthcare quality indicators. The magnitude of association between BCG coverage and COVID-19 death rate varied according to HAQI, and MCV coverage had little effect on the association between BCG and COVID-19 deaths. While there are associations between live vaccine coverage and COVID-19 outcomes, the vaccine coverage variables themselves were strongly correlated with COVID-19 testing rate, HAQI and life expectancy. This suggests that the population-level associations may be further confounded by differences in structural health systems and policies. Cluster randomised studies of booster vaccines would be ideal to evaluate the efficacy of trained immunity in preventing COVID-19 infections and mortality in vaccinated populations and on community transmission.

The Role of Implementation Science in Advancing Resource Generation for Health Interventions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) bear the brunt of communicable and non-communicable diseases and experience higher mortality and poor health outcomes compared to resource-rich countries. Chronic resource deficits in LMICs impede their ability to successfully address vexing health issues. Implementation science provides researchers with an approach to develop specific interventions that can generate and/or maximize resources to facilitate the implementation of other public health interventions, in resource-constrained LMIC settings. Resources generated from these interventions could be in the form of increased health workers' skills, task shifting to free up higher-skilled health workers, increasing laboratory capacity, and using supply chain innovations to make medications available. Pivotal to the success of such interventions is ensuring feasibility in the LMIC context. We selected and appraised three case studies of evidence-based resource-generating health interventions based in LMICs (Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar), which generated or maximized resources to facilitate ongoing health services. We used a determinant implementation framework-Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) to identify and map contextual factors that are reported to influence implementation feasibility in an LMIC setting. Contextual factors influencing the feasibility of these interventions included leadership engagement, local capacity building and readiness for research and implementing evidence-based practices (EBPs), infrastructural support for multilevel scale-up, and cultural and contextual adaptations. These factors highlight the importance of utilizing implementation science frameworks to evaluate, guide, and execute feasible public health interventions and projects in resource-limited settings. Within LMICs, we recommend EBPs incorporate feasible resource-generating components in health interventions to ensure improved and sustained optimal health outcomes.

Hearing loss prevalence and years lived with disability, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Hearing loss affects access to spoken language, which can affect cognition and development, and can negatively affect social wellbeing. We present updated estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study on the prevalence of hearing loss in 2019, as well as the condition's associated disability.

METHODS

We did systematic reviews of population-representative surveys on hearing loss prevalence from 1990 to 2019. We fitted nested meta-regression models for severity-specific prevalence, accounting for hearing aid coverage, cause, and the presence of tinnitus. We also forecasted the prevalence of hearing loss until 2050.

FINDINGS

An estimated 1·57 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·51-1·64) people globally had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for one in five people (20·3% [19·5-21·1]). Of these, 403·3 million (357·3-449·5) people had hearing loss that was moderate or higher in severity after adjusting for hearing aid use, and 430·4 million (381·7-479·6) without adjustment. The largest number of people with moderate-to-complete hearing loss resided in the Western Pacific region (127·1 million people [112·3-142·6]). Of all people with a hearing impairment, 62·1% (60·2-63·9) were older than 50 years. The Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index explained 65·8% of the variation in national age-standardised rates of years lived with disability, because countries with a low HAQ Index had higher rates of years lived with disability. By 2050, a projected 2·45 billion (2·35-2·56) people will have hearing loss, a 56·1% (47·3-65·2) increase from 2019, despite stable age-standardised prevalence.

INTERPRETATION

As populations age, the number of people with hearing loss will increase. Interventions such as childhood screening, hearing aids, effective management of otitis media and meningitis, and cochlear implants have the potential to ameliorate this burden. Because the burden of moderate-to-complete hearing loss is concentrated in countries with low health-care quality and access, stronger health-care provision mechanisms are needed to reduce the burden of unaddressed hearing loss in these settings.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study

A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission. The second wave of cases in Europe, in regions that were considered as COVID-19 controlled, may raise some concerns. Our objective was to assess the association between staying at home (%) and the reduction/increase in the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in several regions in the world. In this ecological study, data from www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ , ourworldindata.org and covid.saude.gov.br were combined. Countries with > 100 deaths and with a Healthcare Access and Quality Index of ≥ 67 were included. Data were preprocessed and analyzed using the difference between number of deaths/million between 2 regions and the difference between the percentage of staying at home. The analysis was performed using linear regression with special attention to residual analysis. After preprocessing the data, 87 regions around the world were included, yielding 3741 pairwise comparisons for linear regression analysis. Only 63 (1.6%) comparisons were significant. With our results, we were not able to explain if COVID-19 mortality is reduced by staying at home in ~ 98% of the comparisons after epidemiological weeks 9 to 34.

Changing epidemiology of chronic kidney disease as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2017: Estimates from Global Burden of Disease 2017

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

Type 2 diabetes mellitus has been a leading cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD), with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Optimal healthcare planning requires an understanding of how the burden of CKD as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus has changed over time and geographic location, as well as the potential roles of sociodemographic, clinical and behavioral factors in these changes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Disease data from 1990 to 2017 at the global, regional and national levels to investigate changes in the incidence, death and disability-adjusted life years of CKD as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus, incorporating both epidemiological research and risk factor monitoring.

RESULTS

The incident cases of CKD as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus worldwide in 2017 had increased by 74% compared with 1990; total disability-adjusted life years had increased by 113%, mainly attributable to population expansion and demographic transition. The Sociodemographic Index was significantly and negatively correlated with overall CKD as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus burden. However, in 82 countries and territories, the burden was not alleviated in parallel with socioeconomic development.

CONCLUSIONS

CKD as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus has been the main contributor to the increasing burden of CKD over the past several decades. We suggest a more pragmatic approach focusing on early diagnosis, primary care and adequate follow up to reduce mortality and the long-term burden in low-to-middle Sociodemographic Index regions. Interventions should address high systolic blood pressure, as well as overweight and obesity problems, especially in high-income regions.

Influence of publicly funded conditional cash transfer programms on utilization patterns of healthcare services for acute childhood illness

Background

Conditional cash transfers are widespread and effective for utilization of targeted health services, but there is little evidence of their influence on the utilization of non-targeted or extended general healthcare services. Using data from a population-based health utilization survey, we evaluated the influence of conditional cash transfers for maternal and immunization services on the utilization of healthcare services for acute childhood illnesses.

Methods

Participants included mothers or primary caretakers of children <2 y of age residing in 2407 households in urban Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India. Mothers of children with illness in the preceding month were interviewed on presenting symptoms, provider choice and beneficiary status of maternal and immunization-based conditional cash transfer programs.

Results

Of 2407 children <2 y of age, about 48% reported being beneficiaries of maternal and immunization-based conditional cash transfers. Beneficiary status was associated with an increased use of public services (adjusted relative risk [aRR] 3.14 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.96 – 5.02]) but not the use of private services (aRR 1.42 [95% CI 0.97 – 2.08]) relative to home or informal care.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate financial incentives for use of maternal and immunization services could have an indirect, non-targeted effect on utilization of formal healthcare for acute childhood illnesses.

Are environmental pollution and biodiversity levels associated to the spread and mortality of COVID-19? A four-month global analysis

On March 12th, 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 as a pandemic. The collective impact of environmental and ecosystem factors, as well as biodiversity, on the spread of COVID-19 and its mortality evolution remain empirically unknown, particularly in regions with a wide ecosystem range. The aim of our study is to assess how those factors impact on the COVID-19 spread and mortality by country. This study compiled a global database merging WHO daily case reports with other publicly available measures from January 21st to May 18th, 2020. We applied spatio-temporal models to identify the influence of biodiversity, temperature, and precipitation and fitted generalized linear mixed models to identify the effects of environmental variables. Additionally, we used count time series to characterize the association between COVID-19 spread and air quality factors. All analyses were adjusted by social demographic, country-income level, and government policy intervention confounders, among 160 countries, globally. Our results reveal a statistically meaningful association between COVID-19 infection and several factors of interest at country and city levels such as the national biodiversity index, air quality, and pollutants elements (PM10, PM2.5, and O3). Particularly, there is a significant relationship of loss of biodiversity, high level of air pollutants, and diminished air quality with COVID-19 infection spread and mortality. Our findings provide an empirical foundation for future studies on the relationship between air quality variables, a country's biodiversity, and COVID-19 transmission and mortality. The relationships measured in this study can be valuable when governments plan environmental and health policies, as alternative strategy to respond to new COVID-19 outbreaks and prevent future crises.

Digital Networking in Home-Based Support of Older Adults in Rural Areas: Requirements for Digital Solutions

Given the increasing numbers of elders in need of support living at home, digital solutions are developed to ensure good home-based care and support. From a perspective of qualitative urban sociology, the presented study aims to provide an overview of existing technologies for communication as well as networking social support for older adults especially in rural areas, as well as requirements for their dissemination. The focus is on digital networking via apps and platforms in Germany that provide digital support in the areas of participation/communication, mutual aid and/or professional services for older adults. For this purpose, interviews with representatives of 12 projects as well as workshops were conducted. Support mediated via the digital solutions was not always accepted as expected, not even during the COVID-19 pandemic. To ensure a sustainable and long-term use of the digital solutions, it is necessary to take into account the digital skills of the users, to deploy a supervisor and local networker, to find a suitable spatial dimension, to create an awareness of existing problems on site and to anchor the support in suitable structures.

Are we meeting the needs of vulnerable children? Distribution of speech-language pathology services on the Gold Coast, Australia

BACKGROUND

Compared to national averages, the Gold Coast, Australia, has a proportionately higher number of children entering their first year of primary school with 'at risk' or 'vulnerable' language skills. This paper investigates the distribution of paediatric speech-language pathology (SLP) services on the Gold Coast, relative to children's language and cognitive skills, and socioeconomic status (SES).

METHODS

SLP service locations were identified through national association data and a manual search and mapped against SES and Australian Early Development Census data, for language and cognitive skills.

RESULTS

Data for 7595 children was included, with 943 (12.4%) at risk and 780 (12.6%) vulnerable for language and cognitive skills. A total of 75 SLPs were identified (85.3% private, 14.6% public), which is 1 SLP to every 23 children who might have current or impending speech, language and communication needs. Fewer services were available in areas where vulnerable children were located and most were private providers, leading to further potential barriers to service access.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of SLP services located on the Gold Coast is inadequate to meet the needs of children with language and cognitive skill vulnerabilities. Consideration of how services might be distributed is explored and warrants further consideration.