A model to predict survival in patients with end-stage liver disease

Prevalence of Minimal Hepatic Encephalopathy in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis: A Multicenter Study

INTRODUCTION

The prevalence of minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE), in particular in different subgroups, remains unknown. This study aimed to analyze the prevalence of MHE in different subgroups to identify patients at high risk and to pave the way for personalized screening approaches.

METHODS

In this study, data of patients recruited at 10 centers across Europe and the United States were analyzed. Only patients without clinical signs of hepatic encephalopathy were included. MHE was detected using the Psychometric Hepatic Encephalopathy Score (PHES, cut-off < or ≤-4 depending on local norms). Clinical and demographic characteristics of the patients were assessed and analyzed.

RESULTS

In total, 1,868 patients with cirrhosis with a median model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) of 11 were analyzed (Child-Pugh [CP] stages: A 46%, B 42%, and C 12%). In the total cohort, MHE was detected by PHES in 650 patients (35%). After excluding patients with a history of overt hepatic encephalopathy, the prevalence of MHE was 29%. In subgroup analyses, the prevalence of MHE in patients with CP A was low (25%), whereas it was high in CP B or C (42% and 52%). In patients with a MELD score <10, the prevalence of MHE was only 25%, but it was 48% in patients with a MELD score ≥20. Standardized ammonia levels (ammonia level/upper limit of normal of each center) correlated significantly, albeit weakly with PHES (Spearman ρ = -0.16, P < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

The prevalence of MHE in patients with cirrhosis was high but varied substantially between diseases stages. These data may pave the way for more individualized MHE screening approaches.

Resuscitation and Preparation of the Emergency General Surgery Patient

Traditionally, the workflow surrounding a general surgery patient allows for a period of evaluation and optimization of underlying medical issues to allow for risk modification; however, in the emergency, this optimization period is largely condensed because of its time-dependent nature. Because the lack of optimization can lead to complications, the ability to rapidly resuscitate the patient, proceed to procedural intervention to control the situation, and manage common medical comorbidities is paramount. This article provides an overview on these subjects.

Transplant Candidate Outcomes After Declining a DCD Liver in the United States

BACKGROUND

In the context of the organ shortage, donation after circulatory death (DCD) provides an opportunity to expand the donor pool. Although deceased-donor liver transplantation from DCD donors has expanded, DCD livers continue to be discarded at elevated rates; the use of DCD livers from older donors, or donors with comorbidities, is controversial.

METHODS

Using US registry data from 2009 to 2020, we identified 1564 candidates on whose behalf a DCD liver offer was accepted ("acceptors") and 16 981 candidates on whose behalf the same DCD offers were declined ("decliners"). We characterized outcomes of decliners using a competing risk framework and estimated the survival benefit (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]) of accepting DCD livers using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Within 10 y of DCD offer decline, 50.9% of candidates died or were removed from the waitlist before transplantation with any type of allograft. DCD acceptors had lower mortality compared with decliners at 10 y postoffer (35.4% versus 48.9%, P < 0.001). After adjustment for candidate covariates, DCD offer acceptance was associated with a 46% reduction in mortality (0.54 [0.49-0.61]). Acceptors of older (age ≥50), obese (body mass index ≥30), hypertensive, nonlocal, diabetic, and increased risk DCD livers had 44% (0.56 [0.42-0.73]), 40% (0.60 [0.49-0.74]), 48% (0.52 [0.41-0.66]), 46% (0.54 [0.45-0.65]), 32% (0.68 [0.43-1.05]), and 45% (0.55 [0.42-0.72]) lower mortality risk compared with DCD decliners, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

DCD offer acceptance is associated with considerable long-term survival benefits for liver transplant candidates, even with older DCD donors or donors with comorbidities. Increased recovery and utilization of DCD livers should be encouraged.

Arterial blood pressure waveform in liver transplant surgery possesses variability of morphology reflecting recipients' acuity and predicting short term outcomes

We investigated clinical information underneath the beat-to-beat fluctuation of the arterial blood pressure (ABP) waveform morphology. We proposed the Dynamical Diffusion Map algorithm (DDMap) to quantify the variability of morphology.  The underlying physiology could be the compensatory mechanisms involving complex interactions between various physiological mechanisms to regulate the cardiovascular system. As a liver transplant surgery contains distinct periods, we investigated its clinical behavior in different surgical steps. Our study used DDmap algorithm, based on unsupervised manifold learning, to obtain a quantitative index for the beat-to-beat variability of morphology. We examined the correlation between the variability of ABP morphology and disease acuity as indicated by Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, the postoperative laboratory data, and 4 early allograft failure (EAF) scores. Among the 85 enrolled patients, the variability of morphology obtained during the presurgical phase was best correlated with MELD-Na scores. The neohepatic phase variability of morphology was associated with EAF scores as well as postoperative bilirubin levels, international normalized ratio, aspartate aminotransferase levels, and platelet count. Furthermore, variability of morphology presents more associations with the above clinical conditions than the common BP measures and their BP variability indices. The variability of morphology obtained during the presurgical phase is indicative of patient acuity, whereas those during the neohepatic phase are indicative of short-term surgical outcomes.

Computed Tomography-Defined Sarcopenia in Outcomes of Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Radioembolization: Assessment with Total Abdominal, Psoas, and Paraspinal Muscles

Introduction

Sarcopenia is an adverse prognostic factor in patients with liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Image-based sarcopenia assessment allows a standardized method to assess abdominal skeletal muscle. However, which is an index muscle for sarcopenia remains unclear. Therefore, we investigated whether sarcopenia defined according to different muscle groups with computed tomography (CT) scans can predict the prognosis of HCC after radioembolization.

Methods

In this retrospective study, we analyzed patients who underwent radioembolization for unresectable HCC between January 2010 and December 2019. Before treatment, the total abdominal muscle (TAM), psoas muscle (PM), and paraspinal muscle (PS) areas were evaluated using a single CT slice at the third lumbar vertebra. In previous studies, sarcopenia was determined using the TAM, PM, and PS after stratifying by sex. Finally, we investigated each muscle-defined sarcopenia to decide whether or not it can serve as a prognostic factor for overall survival (OS).

Results

We included 92 patients (74 men and 18 women). TAM, PM, and PS areas were significantly higher in the men than in the women (all p < 0.05). The patients with sarcopenia defined using PM, but not TAM and PS, exhibited significantly poorer OS than those without sarcopenia (median 15.3 vs. 23.8 months, p = 0.034, 0.821, and 0.341, respectively). After adjustment for clinical variables, such as body mass index, liver function, alpha-fetoprotein level, clinical staging, treatment response, and posttreatment curative therapy, PM-defined sarcopenia (hazard ratio: 1.899, 95% confidence interval: 1.087-3.315) remained an independent predictor for the poor OS.

Conclusion

CT-assessed sarcopenia defined using PM was an independent prognostic factor for the poorer prognosis of unresectable HCC after radioembolization.

Utilization of hepatitis C virus infected donors in heart transplant recipients with elevated MELD-XI score

BACKGROUND

The advent of direct-acting antivirals has helped to increase the safe utilization of organs from hepatitis C virus positive (HCV+) donors. However, the outcomes of heart transplantation (HT) using an HCV+ donor are unclear in recipients with underlying liver disease represented by an elevated model for end-stage liver disease excluding international normalized ratio (MELD-XI).

METHODS

The United Network of Organ Sharing database was queried from Jan 2016 to Dec 2021. Post-transplant outcomes stratified by recipient MELD-XI score (low <10.37, medium, 10.38-13.39, and high >13.4) was compared between patients with HT from HCV+ (N = 792) and patients with HT from HCV-negative donors (N = 15,266).

RESULTS

The median MELD-XI score was comparable (HCV+, 12.1, vs. HCV-negative, 11.8, p = .37). In the HCV+ group, donors were older (33 vs. 31 years, p < .001). Ischemic time of donor hearts (3.48 vs. 3.28 h, p < .001) and travel distance (250 vs. 157 miles, p < .001) were longer in HCV+ group. In the Kaplan Meier analysis with a median follow-up of 750 days, survival was comparable between the two groups (2-year survival, MELD-XI Low: HCV+, 92.4 ± 3.6% vs. HCV-negative, 91.1 ±.8%, p = .83, Medium: HCV+ 89.2 ± 4.3% vs. HCV-negative, 88.2 ± 1.0%, p = .68, and High: HCV+, 84.9 ± 4.5% vs. HCV-negative, 84.6 ± 1.1%, p = .75) In multivariate Cox hazard models, HCV donors were not associated with mortality in each MELD-XI subgroup (Low: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 1.02, p = .94; Medium: aHR, .95, p = .81; and High: aHR, .93, p = .68).

CONCLUSION

Utilization of HCV+ hearts was not associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes in recipients with an elevated MELD- XI score.

Vitamin D status as a predictor for liver transplant outcomes

It is well known that vitamin D plays a pivotal role in immune system modulation; however, its role in liver transplantation (LT) has not yet been well elucidated. This study aimed to assess the association between vitamin D status and LT outcomes. This retrospective cohort study was conducted on 335 registered cirrhotic patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) who underwent LT during 2019-2021 and had measurement of serum vitamin D before LT. The association of vitamin D levels before LT with the odds of acute cellular rejection (ACR) and risk mortality was assessed by applying logistic and cox regression, respectively. The mean MELD-Na and serum level of vitamin D were 20.39 ± 9.36 and 21.52 ± 15.28 ng/ml, respectively. In the final adjusted model, there was a significant association between vitamin D deficiency in the pre-transplant period and odds of ACR (odds ratio [OR] 2.69; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.50-4.68). Although in the crude model, vitamin D deficiency in the pre-transplant period was significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality after two years of follow-up (Hazard ratio (HR) = 2.64, 95% CI 1.42-4.33), after adjustment for potential confounders, the association of vitamin D status and mortality became non-significant (HR = 1.46, 95% CI 0.71-3.00). The present study provides evidence that pre-transplant serum vitamin D levels may be a predictor for ACR in patients with cirrhosis undergoing LT.

Comparison of Inflammatory Cytokine Levels in Hepatic and Jugular Veins of Patients with Cirrhosis

Background

Systemic inflammation with elevated inflammatory cytokines is a hallmark in patients with cirrhosis and the main driver of decompensation. There is insufficient data on whether inflammatory cytokine levels differ between hepatic and jugular veins, which may have implications for further immunological studies.

Methods

Blood from the hepatic and jugular veins of 40 patients with cirrhosis was collected during hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurements. Serum levels of 13 inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β, Int-α2, Int-γ, TNF-α, MCP-1, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12p70, IL-17A, IL-18, IL-23, and IL-33) were quantified by cytometric bead array.

Results

Cytokine levels of IFN-α2, IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-17A, IL-18, IL-23, and IL-33 were significantly elevated in patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared to patients with compensated cirrhosis. When comparing patients with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH, HVPG ≥ 10 mmHg) to patients without CSPH, there were significantly enhanced serum levels of IL-6 and IL-18 in the former group. There was no significant difference between cytokine serum levels between blood obtained from the jugular versus hepatic veins. Even in subgroup analyses stratified for an early cirrhosis stage (Child-Pugh (CP) A) or more decompensated stages (CP B/C), cytokine levels were similar.

Conclusion

Cytokine levels increase with decompensation and increasing portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis. There is no relevant difference in cytokine levels between hepatic and jugular blood in patients with cirrhosis.

Benefit and harm of waiting time in liver transplantation for HCC

Liver transplantation is the most successful treatment for limited-stage HCC. The waiting time for liver transplantation (LT) can be a critical factor affecting the oncological prognosis and outcome of patients with HCC. Efficient strategies to optimize waiting time are essential to maximize the benefits of LT and to reduce the harm of delay in transplantation. The ever-increasing demand for donor livers emphasizes the need to improve the organization of the waiting list for transplantation and to optimize organ availability for patients with and without HCC. Current progress in innovations to expand the donor pool includes the implementation of living donor LT and the use of grafts from extended donors. By expanding selection criteria, an increased number of patients are eligible for transplantation, which necessitates criteria to prevent futile transplantations. Thus, the selection criteria for LT have evolved to include not only tumor characteristics but biomarkers as well. Enhancing our understanding of HCC tumor biology through the analysis of subtypes and molecular genetics holds significant promise in advancing the personalized approach for patients. In this review, the effect of waiting time duration on outcome in patients with HCC enlisted for LT is discussed.

Markers of inflammation predict survival in newly diagnosed cirrhosis: a prospective registry study

The inflammatory activity in cirrhosis is often pronounced and related to episodes of decompensation. Systemic markers of inflammation may contain prognostic information, and we investigated their possible correlation with admissions and mortality among patients with newly diagnosed liver cirrhosis. We collected plasma samples from 149 patients with newly diagnosed (within the past 6 months) cirrhosis, and registered deaths and hospital admissions within 180 days. Ninety-two inflammatory markers were quantified and correlated with clinical variables, mortality, and admissions. Prediction models were calculated by logistic regression. We compared the disease courses of our cohort with a validation cohort of 86 patients with cirrhosis. Twenty of 92 markers of inflammation correlated significantly with mortality within 180 days (q-values of 0.00-0.044), whereas we found no significant correlations with liver-related admissions. The logistic regression models yielded AUROCs of 0.73 to 0.79 for mortality and 0.61 to 0.73 for liver-related admissions, based on a variety of modalities (clinical variables, inflammatory markers, clinical scores, or combinations thereof). The models performed moderately well in the validation cohort and were better able to predict mortality than liver-related admissions. In conclusion, markers of inflammation can be used to predict 180-day mortality in patients with newly diagnosed cirrhosis. Prediction models for newly diagnosed cirrhotic patients need further validation before implementation in clinical practice.Trial registration: NCT04422223 (and NCT03443934 for the validation cohort), and Scientific Ethics Committee No.: H-19024348.

Predicting disease progression in cirrhotic patients after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt implantation: A sex-stratified analysis

BACKGROUND

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) has been extensively used to treat portal hypertension-associated complications, including cirrhosis. The prediction of post-TIPS prognosis is important for cirrhotic patients, as more aggressive liver transplantation is needed when the post-TIPS prognosis is poor.

AIM

To construct a nutrition-based model that could predict the disease progression of cirrhotic patients after TIPS implantation in a sex-dependent manner.

METHODS

This study retrospectively recruited cirrhotic patients undergoing TIPS implantation for analysis. Muscle quality was assessed by measuring the skeletal muscle index (SMI) by computed tomography. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were utilized to determine the association between SMI and disease progression in cirrhotic patients after TIPS implantation.

RESULTS

This study eventually included 186 cirrhotic patients receiving TIPS who were followed up for 30.5 ± 18.8 mo. For male patients, the 30-mo survival rate was significantly lower and the probability of progressive events was higher (3.257-fold) in the low-level SMI group than in the high-level SMI group. According to the multivariate Cox analysis of male patients, SMI < 32.8 was an independent risk factor for long-term adverse outcomes after TIPS implantation. A model was constructed, which involved creatinine, plasma ammonia, SMI, and acute-on-chronic liver failure and hepatic encephalopathy occurring within half a year after surgery. This model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.852, sensitivity of 0.926, and specificity of 0.652. According to the results of the DeLong test, this model outperformed other models (Child-Turcotte-Pugh, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, and Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival) (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

SMI is strongly associated with poor long-term outcomes in male patients with cirrhosis who underwent TIPS implantation.

Association of direct bilirubin to total bilirubin ratio with 90-day mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background

Hyperbilirubinemia occurs when the liver fails to process bilirubin properly. A disproportionate increase in direct bilirubin indicates a decreased ability of the hepatocytes to uptake and/or convert bilirubin, which may impact the prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the association of direct bilirubin to total bilirubin ratio (DB/TB) with outcomes in patients with ACLF remains unclear.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted in West China Hospital of Sichuan University to assess the association between DB/TB and 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF. The diagnosis of ACLF was based on the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH) ACLF criteria. Ordinal logistic regression models, linear regression models, and Cox proportional hazards models were applied to evaluate the association between DB/TB and hepatic encephalopathy, disease severity, and outcome, respectively.

Results

A total of 258 patients with ACLF were included. The surviving patients were less likely to have liver cirrhosis and comorbidities, and their disease severities were milder than the dead. DB/TB was negatively correlated to cerebral score for hepatic encephalopathy (adjusted odds ratio: 0.01, p = 0.043), and disease severity (adjusted standardized coefficients: -0.42~-0.31, all p < 0.001), respectively. A significant 90-day mortality risk of DB/TB was observed [all adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) < 0.20 and all p ≤ 0.001]. Compared with patients with DB/TB < 0.80, patients with ACLF and DB/TB ≥ 0.80 had much lower 90-day mortality risk (all aHR < 0.75 and all p < 0.01).

Conclusion

DB/TB could be an independent risk factor to predict the short-term prognosis in patients with ACLF. More attention should be paid to patients with lower DB/TB due to their poorer prognosis and more urgent need for liver transplantation.Clinical trial registration:http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=56960, identifier, ChiCTR2000035013.

Risk stratification for isolated tricuspid valve surgery assisted using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score

OBJECTIVE

Isolated tricuspid valve surgery is perceived as high-risk. This perception is nurtured by patients who often present with substantial liver dysfunction, which is inappropriately reflected in current surgical risk scores (eg, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons [STS] score has no specific tricuspid model). The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has was developed as a measure for the severity of liver dysfunction. We report scores and outcomes for our patient population.

METHODS

We calculated STS, European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II (ESII), and MELD scores for all of our patients who received isolated tricuspid valve surgery between 2011 and 2020 (n = 157). We determined the MELD score, stratified patients into 3 groups (MELD <10: low, n = 53; 10 to <20: intermediate, n = 78; ≥20: high, n = 26) and describe associated outcomes.

RESULTS

Patients were 72 ± 10 years old and 43% were male. Mean STS score was 4.9 ± 3.5% and ESII was 7.2 ± 6.6%. Mortality was 8.9% at 30 days and 65% at latest follow-up (95% CI, 51%-76%). Median follow-up was 4.4 years (range, 0-9.7 years). Although ESII and STS score accurately predicted 30-day mortality at low MELD scores (observed to expected [O/E] for ESII score = 0.8 and O/E for STS score = 1.0) and intermediate MELD (O/E for ESII score = 0.7, O/E for STS score = 1.0), mortality was underestimated at high MELD (O/E for ESII score = 3.0, O/E for STS score = 4.7). This subgroup also had higher incidence of new-onset hemodialysis. Besides MELD category, recent congestive heart failure, endocarditis, and hemodialysis were also associated with 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

For isolated tricuspid valve regurgitation, classic surgical risk stratification with STS or ESII scores failed to predict perioperative mortality if there was evidence of severe liver dysfunction. Preoperative MELD assessment might be useful to assist in proper risk assessment for isolated tricuspid valve surgery.

The yesterday, today and tomorrow of liver transplant

With a very long history of setbacks and successes, organ transplantation is one of the greatest medical achievements of the twentieth century. Liver transplantation is currently the most effective method for treating end-stage liver disease. From humble beginnings, improvements in surgical technique, perioperative management, and immunosuppressive therapy have yielded excellent graft and patient outcomes. Most established 'liver transplant' (LT) centres have a 1-year survival rate exceeding 90%, and a 3-year survival rate of over 80%. With immense success, the need for hepatic grafts substantially exceeds their availability. This problem has been partially addressed by using split grafts, living donor liver transplantation (LDLT), and extended criteria grafts (ECG). This article reviews the immense progress made in various aspects of LT including evaluation, increasing donor pool, surgical advances, immunosuppression and anaesthesia related aspects and the way forward. With ongoing cutting edge research in technologies like artificial liver devices, tissue bioengineering and hepatocyte 'farms', the future of LT is more exciting than ever before.

Avoiding falsely low creatinine concentrations measured in patients treated with N-acetylcysteine for acetaminophen intoxication using enzymo-amperometric method - An in vitro and in vivo study

BACKGROUND

Circulating creatinine is a biomarker of paramount importance in clinical practice. In cases of acetaminophen (APAP) intoxication, the antidote, N-acetylcysteine (NAC), interferes with commonly used creatininase-peroxidase methods. This study aimed to assess whether creatininase-amperometric methods were affected in this context.

METHODS

This study includes in vitro interference tests, involving four creatinine assays using NAC-spiked plasma pools and an in vivo retrospective study comparing creatininase-peroxidase and creatininase-amperometric measurements in patients presenting with NAC-treated APAP poisoning.

RESULTS

Creatininase-peroxidase method was impacted by NAC interference in a clinically-significant manner at therapeutic NAC levels (basal value recovery of 80 % and 70 % for 500 and 1000 mg.L-1 of NAC, respectively), surpassing the desirable Reference Change Value (RCV%). Enzymo-amperometric methods were not impacted. Among patients, a mean bias of -45.2 ± 28.0 % was observed for the peroxidase detection method compared to the amperometric in those who received NAC prior plasma sampling and -2.7 ± 5.4 % in those who did not.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that enzymo-amperometric creatinine assays remain unaffected by NAC interference due to the absence of the peroxidase step in the analytical process. Therefore, these methods are suitable to prevent spurious hypocreatininemia in APAP intoxicated patients undergoing NAC therapy.

Artificial Intelligence and liver: Opportunities and barriers

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has recently been shown as an excellent tool for the study of the liver; however, many obstacles still have to be overcome for the digitalization of real-world hepatology. The authors present an overview of the current state of the art on the use of innovative technologies in different areas (big data, translational hepatology, imaging, and transplant setting). In clinical practice, physicians must integrate a vast array of data modalities (medical history, clinical data, laboratory tests, imaging, and pathology slides) to achieve a diagnostic or therapeutic decision. Unfortunately, machine learning and deep learning are still far from really supporting clinicians in real life. In fact, the accuracy of any technological support has no value in medicine without the support of clinicians. To make better use of new technologies, it is essential to improve clinicians' knowledge about them. To this end, the authors propose that collaborative networks for multidisciplinary approaches will improve the rapid implementation of AI systems for developing disease-customized AI-powered clinical decision support tools. The authors also discuss ethical, educational, and legal challenges that must be overcome to build robust bridges and deploy potentially effective AI in real-world clinical settings.

The Effect of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease 3.0 on Disparities between Patients with and without Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Korea

PURPOSE

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) 3.0 has recently been suggested for determining liver allocation. We aimed to apply MELD 3.0 to a Korean population and to discover differences between patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study is a retrospective study of 2203 patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis at Severance Hospital between 2016-2022. Harrell's concordance index was used to validate the ability of MELD scores to predict 90-day survival.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 12.9 months, 90-day survival was 61.9% in all patients, 50.4% in the HCC patients, and 74.8% in the non-HCC patients. Within the HCC patients, the concordance index for patients on the waitlist was 0.653 using MELD, which increased to 0.753 using MELD 3.0. Among waitlisted patients, the 90-day survival of HCC patients was worse than that of non-HCC patients with MELD scores of 31-37 only (69.7% vs. 30.0%, p=0.001). Applying MELD 3.0, the 90-day survival of HCC patients was worse than that of non-HCC patients across a wider range of MELD 3.0 scores, compared to MELD, with MELD 3.0 scores of 21-30 and 31-37 (82.0% vs. 72.5% and 72.3% vs. 24.3%, p=0.02 and p<0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSION

MELD 3.0 predicted 90-day survival of the HCC patients more accurately than original MELD score; however, the disparity between HCC and non-HCC patients increased, particularly in patients with MELD scores of 21-30. Therefore, a novel exception score is needed or the current exception score system should be modified.

Predictors of Short-term Mortality in Patients of Cirrhosis of Liver Presenting as Acute Kidney Injury: An In-hospital Prospective Observational Study

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is known to be associated with increased short-term mortality among cirrhotic patients. On this background, we designed this study to evaluate various causes of AKI among admitted patients with cirrhosis of liver and predictors of 90-day mortality.

Methods

One hundred and two consecutive adult patients with cirrhosis of liver with AKI hospitalized between November 2016 and March 2018 were enrolled in this prospective study. Their detailed clinical profile, including biochemical parameters, the etiology of AKI, and their clinical outcome of survival or mortality at 90-days, were recorded.

Results

The most common causes of AKI were infections, followed by hypovolemia, seen in 55.88% and 31.37% of the patients, respectively. Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) was seen in 10.78%, while parenchymal renal disease was the least common (1.9%). The in-hospital mortality rate was 28.4%, while 90-day mortality was 39.21%. The HRS group had a high 90-day mortality rate of 54.54%. ROC analysis of various biochemical parameters revealed that serum creatinine (sCr), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), International Normalized Ratio (INR), and Neutrophil-Lymphocyte ratio (NLR), followed by Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP), had high area under the curves of 0.785, 0.773, 0.747, 0.740, and 0.718, respectively, for the prediction of 90-day mortality.

Conclusion

Infection is the commonest cause of AKI in cirrhosis; however, mortality in patients with HRS-AKI is higher than that in those with infection-related AKI. Serum creatinine at admission, INR, NLR, and CTP scores predict short-term mortality among patients with AKI in cirrhosis. Further, large prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Predicting outcomes following short-term ventricular assist device implant with the MELD-XI score

BACKGROUND

Short-term continuous flow (STCF) ventricular assist devices (VADs) are utilized in adults with cardiogenic shock; however, mortality remains high. Previous studies have found that high pre-operative MELD-XI scores in durable VAD patients are associated with mortality. The use of the MELD-XI score to predict outcomes in STCF-VAD patients has not been explored. We sought to determine the relationship between MELD-XI and outcomes in adults with STCF-VADs.

METHODS

This was a retrospective review of adults implanted with STCF-VADs between 2009 and 2019. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to predict outcomes and Kaplan-Meier analysis was done to assess survival.

RESULTS

Seventy-nine patients were included with a median MELD-XI score of 21.2 (IQR 13.5, 27.0). Patients with an unsuccessful wean from support (p < 0.001) or major post-operative bleeding (p = 0.03) had significantly higher pre-implant MELD-XI scores. The optimal MELD-XI cut-point for mortality was 24.9 with 27.8 for major bleeding. Survival was worse among patients in the high-risk MELD-XI group, however, not statistically significant (p = 0.09). Prior ECMO support, but not MELD-XI, was an independent predictor of unsuccessful wean (p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-operative MELD-XI score was a moderate predictor of unsuccessful wean with limited utility in predicting bleeding in patients on STCF-VAD support. This scoring system may be useful in the clinical setting for pre-implant risk stratification and counseling among patients and outcomes.

Shear wave elastography-based deep learning model for prognosis of patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis

PURPOSE

This study aimed to develop and validate a deep learning model based on two-dimensional (2D) shear wave elastography (SWE) for predicting prognosis in patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled 288 acutely decompensated cirrhosis patients with a minimum 1-year follow-up, divided into a training cohort (202 patients, 1010 2D SWE images) and a test cohort (86 patients, 430 2D SWE images). Using transfer learning by Resnet-50 to analyze 2D SWE images, a SWE-based deep learning signature (DLswe) was developed for 1-year mortality prediction. A combined nomogram was established by incorporating deep learning SWE information and laboratory data through a multivariate Cox regression analysis. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated with respect to predictive discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness in the training and test cohorts.

RESULTS

The C-index for DLswe was 0.748 (95% CI 0.666-0.829) and 0.744 (95% CI 0.623-0.864) in the training and test cohorts, respectively. The combined nomogram significantly improved the C-index, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of DLswe to 0.823 (95% CI 0.763-0.883), 86%, 75%, and 89% in the training cohort, and 0.808 (95% CI 0.707-0.909), 83%, 74%, and 85% in the test cohort (both p < 0.05). Calibration curves demonstrated good calibration of the combined nomogram. Decision curve analysis indicated that the nomogram was clinically valuable.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2D SWE-based deep learning model holds promise as a noninvasive tool to capture valuable prognostic information, thereby improving outcome prediction in patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis.

Waitlist and post-transplant outcomes among candidates listed for liver transplant: Liver alone versus simultaneous liver kidney listings

BACKGROUND

Data comparing waitlist and post-transplant outcomes of liver transplantation (LT) alone (LTA) versus simultaneous liver kidney (SLK) listings are limited.

AIM

To examine 90-days waitlist and 1-year post-transplant outcomes of LT listings since Organ Procurement Transplant Network (OPTN) policy for SLK, who had cirrhosis with eGFR <30 mL/min or on dialysis at listing.

METHODS

Adults (08/2017-03/2021) with first LT listing (2628 SLK) were stratified on renal function from listing: acute kidney injury (AKI): rise of serum creatinine by ≥0.3 mg/dL or <42 days hemodialysis; chronic kidney disease (CKD): eGFR <60 mL/min for ≥90 days or ≥42 days hemodialysis.

RESULTS

Among 7094 adults analyzed, 90-days competing cumulative waitlist mortality was 18.2% in LTA + CKD (n = 37), 15.3% in LTA + AKI (n = 3337), 15% in SLK + AKI (n = 2070), and 11% in SLK + CKD (n = 403), p < 0.001. On fine and gray model, compared to SLK + CKD, LTA + AKI had 1.4-fold waitlist mortality. On a median post-transplant follow up of 1 year, patient survival was similar comparing LTA versus SLK for AKI (89% each, p = 0.83), for CKD (93 vs. 86%, p = 0.55), but lower in recipients listed for SLK with no AKI or CKD (93 vs. 88%, p = 0.02), adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) of 0.7 (0.4-1.2). Among 1024 LTA recipients without AKI or CKD from listing, 117 were listed for SLK, and their 1-year survival was poorer compared to LT alone listings (79 vs. 95%, p < 0.002, adjusted HR 3.6 (1.3-10.3); p = 0.015).

CONCLUSIONS

Among candidates with renal dysfunction at listing for LT, those listed for LT alone should receive transplant promptly to optimise waitlist outcomes. Those listed for SLK should wait to receive both organs to optimise post-transplant outcomes.

Current status of preoperative risk assessment for posthepatectomy liver failure in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver resection is an effective therapeutic option for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. However, posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) remains a major cause of hepatectomy-related mortality, and the accurate prediction of PHLF based on preoperative assessment of liver functional reserve is a critical issue. The definition of PHLF proposed by the International Study Group for Liver Surgery has gained acceptance as a standard grading criterion. Liver function can be estimated using a variety of parameters, including routine blood biochemical examinations, clinical scoring systems, dynamic liver function tests, liver stiffness and fibrosis markers, and imaging studies. The Child-Pugh score and model for end-stage liver disease scores are conventionally used for estimating liver decompensation, although the alternatively developed albumin-bilirubin score shows superior performance for predicting hepatic dysfunction. Indocyanine green clearance, a dynamic liver function test mostly used in Japan and other Asian countries, serves as a quantitative estimation of liver function reserve and helps determine indications for surgical procedures according to the estimated risk of PHLF. In an attempt to improve predictive accuracy, specific evaluation of liver fibrosis and portal hypertension has gained popularity, including liver stiffness measurements using ultrasonography or magnetic resonance elastography, as well as noninvasive fibrosis markers. Imaging modalities, including Tc-99m-labeled galactosyl serum albumin scintigraphy and gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, are used for preoperative evaluation in combination with liver volume. This review aims to provide an overview of the usefulness of current options for the preoperative assessment of liver function in predicting PHLF.

Predicting COVID-19 prognosis in hospitalized patients based on early status

IMPORTANCE

COVID-19 remains the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. Predicting COVID-19 patient prognosis is essential to help efficiently allocate resources, including ventilators and intensive care unit beds, particularly when hospital systems are strained. Our PLABAC and PRABLE models are unique because they accurately assess a COVID-19 patient's risk of death from only age and five commonly ordered laboratory tests. This simple design is important because it allows these models to be used by clinicians to rapidly assess a patient's risk of decompensation and serve as a real-time aid when discussing difficult, life-altering decisions for patients. Our models have also shown generalizability to external populations across the United States. In short, these models are practical, efficient tools to assess and communicate COVID-19 prognosis.

Hepatic Impairment as a Risk Factor for Drug Safety: Suitability and Comparison of Four Liver Scores as Screening Tools

Hepatic impairment (HI) influences the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of drugs and represents an important risk factor for drug safety. A reliable screening tool for HI identification at hospital admission by pharmacists would be desirable but is currently lacking. Therefore, we tested four liver scores as potential screening instruments. We retrospectively recorded liver/bile diagnoses, symptoms and abnormalities (summarized as hepatic findings) of 200 surgical patients followed by an assessment of the relevance of these findings for drug therapy (rating). The agreement between the Model of Endstage Liver Disease (MELD), Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), Fibrosis 4 index (FIB-4), and aspartate-aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and the rating was quantified by Cohen's Kappa. The performance of the scores in this setting was further evaluated by their sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). Of 200 patients, 18 (9%) had hepatic findings relevant for drug therapy. Fair agreement was found for FIB-4 and MELD and slight agreement for APRI and NFS compared to the rating. The highest values for sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 41.2% (MELD), 99.3% (APRI), 66.7% (APRI), and 93.6% (MELD), respectively. Due to low performance, none of the scores can be recommended for clinical use as a single screening tool for HI at hospital admission.

Novel Morphological Profiling Assay Connects ex Vivo Endothelial Cell Responses to Disease Severity in Liver Cirrhosis

Background and Aims

Endothelial cell (EC) dysfunction in response to circulating plasma factors is a known causal factor in many systemic diseases. However, no appropriate assay is available to investigate this causality ex vivo. In liver cirrhosis, systemic inflammation is identified as central mechanism in progression from compensated to decompensated cirrhosis (DC), but the role of ECs therein is unknown. We aimed to develop a novel ex vivo assay for assessing EC responses to patient-derived plasma (PDP) and assess the potential of this assay in a cohort of liver cirrhosis patients.

Methods

Image-based morphological profiling was utilized to assess the impact of PDP on cultured ECs. Endothelial cell (EC) monolayers were exposed to 25% stabilized PDP (20 compensated cirrhoses, 20 DCs, and 20 healthy controls (HCs). Single-cell morphological profiles were extracted by automated image-analysis following staining of multiple cellular components and high-content imaging. Patient profiles were created by dimension reduction and cell-to-patient data aggregation, followed by multivariate-analysis to stratify patients and identify discriminating features.

Results

Patient-derived plasma (PDP) exposure induced profound changes in EC morphology, displaying clear differences between controls and DC patients. Compensated cirrhosis patients showed overlap with healthy controls and DC patients. Supervised analysis showed Child-Pugh (CP) class could be predicted from EC morphology. Most importantly, CP-C patients displayed distinct EC phenotypes, in which mitochondrial changes were most discriminative.

Conclusion

Morphological profiling presents a viable tool to assess the endothelium ex vivo. We demonstrated that the EC phenotype corresponds with disease severity in liver cirrhosis. Moreover, our results suggest the presence of mitochondrial dysfunction in ECs of CP-C patient.

Glycoprotein non-metastatic melanoma protein B expression correlates with the prognosis of acute liver injury/failure

Background: Glycoprotein non-metastatic melanoma protein B (GPNMB) is expressed in macrophages during recovery from acute liver injury (ALI) in carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)-induced liver injury model mice. In this retrospective study, we assessed whether GPNMB levels in the serum and injured liver correlate with liver injury severity and prognosis in patients with ALI or acute liver failure (ALF). Methods: The study involved 56 patients with ALI or ALF who visited the Kagoshima University Hospital. Serum GPNMB level was measured over time, and the localization, proportion, origin, and phenotype of GPNMB-expressing cells in the injured liver were assessed. Finally, the phenotypes of human monocyte-derived macrophages and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of patients with ALI and ALF were analyzed. Results: Peak GPNMB levels were significantly higher in patients with ALF and hepatic encephalopathy (HE), as well as in those who underwent liver transplantation or died, than in others. The peak GPNMB level correlated with prothrombin activity, prothrombin time-international normalized ratio, Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, and serum hepatocyte growth factor level. GPNMB was expressed in CD68-positive macrophages, and its level increased with the severity of liver injury. The macrophages showed the same polarization as M2c macrophages induced with interleukin-10 from human monocytes. Moreover, PBMCs from patients with ALF exhibited an immunosuppressive phenotype. Conclusion: We found that GPNMB levels in the serum and injured liver, which increased in patients with ALF, especially in those with HE, correlated with the severity of liver injury and prognosis of ALI and ALF. Moreover, GPNMB-positive macrophages exhibited the M2c phenotype. Our results indicate that persistently high GPNMB levels may be a prognostic marker in patients with ALI and ALF.

Elevated Liver Fibrosis Progression in Isolated PSC Patients and Increased Malignancy Risk in a PSC-IBD Cohort: A Retrospective Study

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease often associated with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), particularly ulcerative colitis (CU), and rarely with Crohn's disease (CD). Various long-term analyses show different rates of cancer and the need for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in patients with isolated PSC and with concomitant IBD, respectively. However, data on the detailed course of PSC with or without IBD are limited. We aimed to analyze the clinical disease course of PSC patients without IBD compared to PSC patients with UC and CD, respectively. A retrospective data analysis of patients with isolated PSC (n = 41) and of patients with concomitant IBD (n = 115) was performed. In detail, PSC disease characteristics including occurrence of dominant stenoses, liver cirrhosis, OLT and malignancy, as well as the temporal course of PSC activity and disease progression, were analyzed. A multivariable Cox regression model and a Fine-Gray competing risk model were further used for the independent risk factor analysis of cirrhosis development and OLT. Patients with isolated PSC were significantly older at first diagnosis than patients with PSC-IBD (39 vs. 28 years, p = 0.02). A detailed analysis of the course of PSC revealed a faster PSC progression after initial diagnosis in isolated PSC patients compared to PSC-IBD including significantly earlier diagnosis of dominant stenoses (29 vs. 74 months, p = 0.021) and faster progression to liver cirrhosis (38 vs. 103 months, p = 0.027). Patients with isolated PSC have a higher risk of developing cirrhosis than patients with PSC-IBD (Gray's test p = 0.03). OLT was more frequently performed in male patients with isolated PSC compared to males with coincident IBD (48% (n = 13) vs. 33% (n = 25), p = 0.003). Colorectal carcinoma was significantly more often diagnosed in patients with PSC-IBD than in isolated PSC (8.7% vs. 0%, p = 0.042). Patients with isolated PSC seem to have a different clinical course of disease than PSC patients with concomitant IBD characterized by a more pro-fibrotic disease course with earlier onset of liver cirrhosis and dominant stenosis but with less malignancy. These data may be interpreted as either a more progressive disease course of isolated PSC or a later diagnosis of the disease at an advanced disease stage. The different clinical courses of PSC and the underlying mechanisms of the gut-liver axis need further attention.

The current landscape of therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma

Globally, primary liver cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths, with approximately 830 000 deaths worldwide in 2020, accounting for 8.3% of total deaths from all cancer types (1). This disease disproportionately affects those in countries with low or medium Human Development Index scores in Eastern Asia, South-Eastern Asia, and Northern and Western Africa (2). Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most common type of primary liver cancer, often develops in the background of chronic liver disease, caused by hepatitis B or C virus, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), or other diseases that cause cirrhosis. Prognosis can vary dramatically based on number, size, and location of tumors. Hepatic synthetic dysfunction and performance status (PS) also impact survival. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system best accounts for these variations, providing a reliable prognostic stratification. Therapeutic considerations of this complex disease necessitate a multidisciplinary approach and can range from curative-intent surgical resection, liver transplantation or image-guided ablation to more complex liver-directed therapies like transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and systemic therapy. Recent advances in the understanding of the tumor biology and microenvironment have brought new advances and approvals for systemic therapeutic agents, often utilizing immunotherapy or VEGF-targeted agents to modulate the immune response. This review will discuss the current landscape in the treatments available for early, intermediate, and advanced stage HCC.

Comparing Three Profoundly Influential Prognostic Scores in Cirrhotic Patients with Acute-on-Chronic-Liver Failure Admitted to the ICU: Prediction of One-Month Mortality-A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic-liver failure (ACLF) demonstrates high short-term mortality rates and usually requires intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Accurate prognostication of these patients is pivotal for timely referral for liver transplantation. The superiority of CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C ACLF lactate, and NACSELD-ACLF scores in Asian patients with ACLF admitted to an ICU remains inconclusive.

AIMS

To compare the predictive performance of CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C ACLF lactate, and NACSELD-ACLF scores for one-month mortality.

METHODS

276 consecutive cirrhotic patients with ACLF admitted to ICU were enrolled. The prognostic values for one-month mortality were assessed by AUROC analysis.

RESULTS

The primary cause of cirrhosis in this cohort was alcohol abuse (56.5%). AUROC analysis (95% confidence intervals) demonstrated that CLIF-C ACLF lactate [0.802 (0.747-0.856)] outperformed both CLIF-C ACLF [0.791 (0.733-0.848)] and NACSELD-ACLF [0.673 (0.606-0.740)] in predicting one-month mortality. However, no statistically significant difference was observed between the predictive abilities of CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C ACLF lactate.

CONCLUSIONS

In critically ill cirrhotic patients with ACLF admitted to the hepatology ICU, CLIF ACLF-lactate outperformed CLIF-C ACLF and NACSELD-ACLF in predicting one-month mortality. Nevertheless, no statistically significant difference was observed between CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C ACLF lactate. Larger-scale multi-center prospective studies are warranted to validate these results.

Liver transplantation for elderly patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Although liver resection is a viable option for patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver transplantation is the optimal treatment. The aim of this study was to identify characteristics of liver transplantation for elderly patients, and to assess the therapeutic benefit derived from liver transplantation over liver resection.

METHODS

This was a population-based study of patients undergoing liver transplantation for HCC in the USA between 2004 and 2018. Data were retrieved from the National Cancer Database. Elderly patients were defined as individuals aged 70 years and over. Propensity score overlap weighting was used to control for heterogeneity between the liver resection and liver transplantation cohorts.

RESULTS

Among 4909 liver transplant recipients, 215 patients (4.1 per cent) were classified as elderly. Among 5922 patients who underwent liver resection, 1907 (32.2 per cent) were elderly. Elderly patients who underwent liver transplantation did not have a higher hazard of dying during the first 5 years after transplantation than non-elderly recipients. After propensity score weighting, liver transplantation was associated with a lower risk of death than liver resection. Other factors associated with overall survival included diagnosis during 2016-2018, non-white/non-African American race, and α-fetoprotein level over 20 ng/dl.

CONCLUSION

Elderly patients with HCC should not be excluded from liver transplantation based on age only. Transplantation leads to favourable survival compared with liver resection.

Predictive Value of the Prothrombin Time-International Normalized Ratio to Albumin Ratio in the Prognosis of Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Background

Acute-on-chronic liver failure is a common clinical syndrome with high short-term mortality, and early assessment of its mortality risk is crucial, but the search for valid and accurate prognostic biomarkers is a challenging endeavor. The purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive value of the prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio (PTAR) for mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF).

Patients and methods

A total of 354 patients with HBV-ACLF were included in the retrospective study. Patients were divided into survival and non-survival groups based on 90-day follow-up. Cox regression analysis was used to explore the relationship between PTAR and 90-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the effectiveness of PTAR in predicting mortality.

Results

PTAR was significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors. The results of multivariate analysis showed that PTAR was a valid independent predictor of mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF. Its predictive ability for mortality was similar to that of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, the end-stage liver disease model (MELD) score, and the MELD-sodium score.

Conclusion

PTAR may be a simple and effective tool for predicting the prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF.

Superoxide dismutase 2 as a predictor in patients with hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure

The prognosis of hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is critical in clinical management. We aimed to assess the prognostic efficacy of superoxide dismutase 2 (SOD2) for 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. The expression patterns of SOD2 in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were examined in a derivation set (n = 82) by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). The results were further validated in a validation set (n = 35). The expression levels of SOD2 were significantly decreased in the derivation set compared to those with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) or the healthy controls (HCs) (P < 0.001). In HBV-ACLF patients, SOD2 levels were negatively correlated with serum total bilirubin (TBIL) (rs = - 0.43, P < 0.001) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores (rs =  -  0.22, P = 0.047), but positively correlated with alkaline phosphatase (AKP) (rs = 0.23, P = 0.034). SOD2 was identified as an independent risk factor for 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients (hazard ratio: 0.124, 95% confidence interval: 0.059-0.261, P < 0.001). SOD2 yielded a larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) than the MELD score in predicting 90-day mortality (0.914 vs. 0.712, P < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a favorable overall survival (OS) for the SOD2 high expression group compared with the SOD2 low expression group in both the derivation and validation sets (P < 0.001). SOD2 has promising potential as a predictor of 90-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF.

Liver Fibrosis Scores Are Associated With Resting and Exercise Fontan and Pulmonary Artery Wedge Pressures: Insights Into FALD

BACKGROUND

Alterations in liver perfusion and venous hypertension have been implicated in the pathophysiology of Fontan-associated liver disease (FALD). However, the correlation between exercise hemodynamics and markers of FALD have not been studied.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective review of 32 consecutive adults undergoing exercise catheterisation at the Mayo Clinic, Minnesota. Invasive hemodynamics were correlated with aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and the Fibrosis-4 (Fib-4) score, well validated surrogates of liver fibrosis.

RESULTS

The mean age was 30.9 ± 7 years. The mean APRI was 0.5 ± 0.2 and the mean Fib-4 score 1.3 ± 0.8. Fib-4 scores correlated with spleen size on abdominal imaging (r = 0.40; P = 0.03). Resting Fontan pressure was 13.9 ± 3.9 mm Hg and pulmonary artery wedge pressure (PAWP) 10.0 ± 3.5 mm Hg. At peak exercise (69.4 ± 23.2 W), Fontan pressures increased to 26.5 ± 6.2 mm Hg and PAWP to 22.4 ± 7.1 mm Hg. APRI and Fib-4 score were directly related to Fontan pressure and PAWP at rest and during exercise, and inversely related to exercise arterial O2 saturation. Fib-4 inversely correlated with O2 delivery indices. Similarly, when categorising patients according to high APRI (> 0.5 vs ≤ 0.5) or Fib-4 score (≥ 1.45 vs < 1.45) according to previously proposed cutoffs for diagnosis of liver fibrosis, those with elevated scores had higher resting and exercise Fontan and PAWP pressure with lower O2 arterial saturation.

CONCLUSIONS

APRI and Fib-4 score correlated with resting and exercise Fontan pressure and PAWP. In addition, Fib-4 scores were inversely related to O2 delivery indices. These findings support a role played by hepatic venous hypertension and reduced O2 supply in patients with FALD.

The outcomes and prognostic factors of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and Child-Turcotte-Pugh class B

BACKGROUND

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is widely used for assessing the liver's functional reserve in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aims to explore the outcomes of patients with HCC and CTP class B and to investigate the prognostic accuracy of prediction models for ACLD in these patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 1143 patients with HCC and CTP class B between 2007 and 2022. We divided the patients into three subgroups based on their CTP scores: CTP-B7, CTP-B8, and CTP-B9. We compared the corrected Akaike information criterion among each mortality prediction model, including the CTP score, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, modified ALBI score, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD 3.0.

RESULTS

Among the enrolled patients, 576 (50.3%) were in the CTP-B7 group, 363 (31.8%) were in the CTP-B8 group, and 204 (17.9%) were in the CTP-B9 group. After a median follow-up of 4.6 months (interquartile range IQR 1.8-17.2 months), 963 patients died, and the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 11.4%. The 5-year OS rates were 11.6%, 13.6%, and 8.3% in the CTP-B7, CTP-B8, and CTP-B9 groups, respectively. Patients in the CTP-B7 group and CTP-B8 group had comparable OS ( p = 0.089), both of which were better than those in the CTP-B9 group ( p < 0.001). Furthermore, the MELD 3.0 score had the lowest corrected akaike information criteria value and provided a more accurate mortality prediction than the MELD score, ALBI grade, modified ALBI grade, and CTP score.

CONCLUSION

Patients in the CTP-B7 and CTP-B8 groups had comparable OS, both of which were better than those in the CTP-B9 group. Moreover, MELD 3.0 provided the most accurate mortality prediction in patients with HCC and CTP class B.

Echocardiographic hemodynamic assessment in decompensated cirrhosis: comparison between Intensivists and Gastroenterologists

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Ascites is a frequent complication of cirrhosis. In intensive care units, initial hemodynamic assessment is frequently performed by echocardiography. This study evaluated the feasibility and usefulness of early hemodynamic assessment in the gastroenterology ward.

METHODS

This observational cohort study prospectively included all patients admitted to a teaching hospital's gastroenterology unit for decompensated cirrhosis. A gastroenterologist with minimal training and an intensivist both performed an echocardiography exam. The primary outcome was inter-rater agreement and reliability for three echocardiography parameters: visual LVEF (Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction), subaortic VTI (velocity time integral) and E wave velocity. Secondary outcomes were agreement for presence of pleural effusion, description of 3 hemodynamics profiles (hypovolemic, hyperkinetic and intermediate), and 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

From March 2018 to March 2020, 53 patients were included. The median age was 62 years and 81% were men. Patients presented mostly advanced liver disease, with 43% Child-Pugh C and median MELD score of 15.2. The limits of agreement between intensivists and gastroenterologists for subaortic VTI were - 6.6 to 7.2 cm, and ranged from - 0.6 to 0.37 m.s-1 for E wave velocity. Clinically significant differences between intensivists and gastroenterologists were found in 22% for subaortic VTI and 24.5% for E wave velocity. Reliability was good for subaortic VTI (ICC: 0.79, 95% CI [0.58; 0.9;]) and moderate for E wave velocity (0.53, 95% CI [0.19; 0.74]). The three hemodynamics profiles had different prognosis, with a 28-day mortality for Hypovolemic, Intermediate and Hyperkinetic group of 31, 18, and 4%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Reliability of hemodynamic assessment by gastroenterologists was good, while agreement was unsatisfactory, advocating for further training. Transthoracic echocardiography can differentiate hypovolemia from hyperkinetic states. The role of transthoracic echocardiography in managing decompensated cirrhosis requires further study.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

NCT03650660.

Predicting liver-related events in NAFLD: A predictive model

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Management of NAFLD involves noninvasive prediction of fibrosis, which is a surrogate for patient outcomes. We aimed to develop and validate a model predictive of liver-related events (LREs) of decompensation and/or HCC and compare its accuracy with fibrosis models.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Patients with NAFLD from Australia and Spain who were followed for up to 28 years formed derivation (n = 584) and validation (n = 477) cohorts. Competing risk regression and information criteria were used for model development. Accuracy was compared with fibrosis models using time-dependent AUC analysis. During follow-up, LREs occurred in 52 (9%) and 11 (2.3%) patients in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Age, type 2 diabetes, albumin, bilirubin, platelet count, and international normalized ratio were independent predictors of LRE and were combined into a model [NAFLD outcomes score (NOS)]. The NOS model calibrated well [calibration slope, 0.99 (derivation), 0.98 (validation)] with excellent overall performance [integrated Brier score, 0.07 (derivation) and 0.01 (validation)]. A cutoff ≥1.3 identified subjects at a higher risk of LRE, (sub-HR 24.6, p < 0.001, 5-year cumulative incidence 38% vs 1.0%, respectively). The predictive accuracy at 5 and 10 years was excellent in both derivation (time-dependent AUC,0.92 and 0.90, respectively) and validation cohorts (time-dependent AUC,0.80 and 0.82, respectively). The NOS was more accurate than the fibrosis-4 or NAFLD fibrosis score for predicting LREs at 5 and 10 years ( p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The NOS model consists of readily available measures and has greater accuracy in predicting outcomes in patients with NAFLD than existing fibrosis models.

Hepatocyte-derived biomarkers predict liver-related events at 2 years in Child-Pugh class A alcohol-related cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In patients with compensated alcohol-related cirrhosis, reliable prognostic biomarkers are lacking. Keratin-18 and hepatocyte-derived large extracellular vesicle (lEV) concentrations reflect disease activity, but their ability to predict liver-related events is unknown.

METHODS

We measured plasma keratin-18 and hepatocyte lEV concentrations in 500 patients with Child-Pugh class A alcohol-related cirrhosis. The ability of these hepatocyte-derived biomarkers, alone or combined with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and FibroTest scores, to predict liver-related events at 2 years was analyzed, taking into account the alcohol consumption at inclusion and during follow-up.

RESULTS

Keratin-18 and hepatocyte lEV concentrations increased with alcohol consumption. In patients without active alcohol consumption at enrollment (n = 419), keratin-18 concentration predicted liver-related events at 2 years, independently of FibroTest and MELD. Patients with both keratin-18 concentrations >285 U/L and FibroTest >0.74 had a 24% cumulative incidence of liver-related events at 2 years, vs. 5% to 14% in other groups of patients. Similar results were obtained when combining keratin-18 concentrations >285 U/L with MELD >10. In patients with active alcohol consumption at enrollment (n = 81), hepatocyte lEVs predicted liver-related events at 2 years, independently of FibroTest and MELD. Patients with both hepatocyte lEV concentrations >50 U/L and FibroTest >0.74 had a 62% cumulative incidence of liver-related events at 2 years, vs. 8% to 13% in other groups of patients. Combining hepatocyte lEV concentrations >50 U/L with MELD >10 had a lower discriminative ability. Similar results were obtained when using decompensation of cirrhosis, defined according to Baveno VII criteria, as an endpoint.

CONCLUSION

In patients with Child-Pugh class A alcohol-related cirrhosis, combining hepatocyte-derived biomarkers with FibroTest or MELD scores identifies patients at high risk of liver-related events, and could be used for risk stratification and patient selection in clinical trials.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

In patients with compensated alcohol-related cirrhosis, reliable predictors of outcome are lacking. In patients with Child-Pugh class A alcohol-related cirrhosis, combining hepatocyte-derived biomarkers (keratin-18 and hepatocyte-large extracellular vesicles) with FibroTest or MELD scores identifies those at high risk of liver-related events at 2 years. The identified patients at high risk of liver-related events are the target-of-choice population for intensive surveillance (e.g., referral to tertiary care centers; intensive control of risk factors) and inclusion in clinical trials.

Child-Pugh Class B or C Liver Disease Increases the Risk of Early Mortality in Patients With Hepatitis C Undergoing Elective Total Joint Arthroplasty Regardless of Treatment Status

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) undergoing primary elective total joint arthroplasty (TJA) are at increased risk of postoperative complications. Patients with chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, specifically Child-Pugh Class B and C, who are undergoing general surgery have high 2-year mortality risks, approaching 60% to 80%. However, the role of Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease classifications of liver status in predicting survivorship among patients with HCV undergoing elective arthroplasty has not been elucidated.

QUESTION/PURPOSE

What factors are independently associated with early mortality (< 2 years) in patients with HCV undergoing arthroplasty?

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study at three tertiary academic medical centers and identified patients with HCV undergoing primary elective TJA between January 2005 and December 2019. Patients who underwent revision TJA and simultaneous primary TJA were excluded. A total of 226 patients were eligible for inclusion in the study. A further 25% (57) were excluded because they were lost to follow-up before the minimum study requirement of 2 years of follow-up or had incomplete datasets. After the inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied, the final cohort consisted of 75% (169 of 226) of the initial patient population eligible for analysis. The mean follow-up duration was 53 ± 29 months. We compared confounding variables for mortality between patients with early mortality (16 patients) and surviving patients (153 patients), including comorbidities, HCV and liver characteristics, HCV treatment, and postoperative medical and surgical complications. Patients with early postoperative mortality were more likely to have an associated advanced Child-Pugh classification and comorbidities including peripheral vascular disease, end-stage renal disease, heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. However, both groups had similar 90-day and 1-year medical complication risks including myocardial infarction, stroke, pulmonary embolism, and reoperations for periprosthetic joint infection and mechanical failure. A multivariable regression analysis was performed to identify independent factors associated with early mortality, incorporating all significant variables with p < 0.05 present in the univariate analysis.

RESULTS

After accounting for significant variables in the univariate analysis such as peripheral vascular disease, end-stage renal disease, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and liver fibrosis staging, Child-Pugh Class B or C classification was found to be the sole factor independently associated with increased odds of early (within 2 years) mortality in patients with HCV undergoing elective TJA (adjusted odds ratio 29 [95% confidence interval 5 to 174]; p < 0.001). The risk of early mortality in patients with Child-Pugh Class B or C was 64% (seven of 11) compared with 6% (nine of 158) in patients with Child-Pugh Class A (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Patients with HCV and a Child-Pugh Class B or C at the time of elective TJA had substantially increased odds of death, regardless of liver function, cirrhosis, age, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease level, HCV treatment, and viral load status. This is similar to the risk of early mortality observed in patients with chronic liver disease undergoing abdominal and cardiac surgery. Surgeons should avoid these major elective procedures in patients with Child-Pugh Class B or C whenever possible. For patients who feel their arthritic symptoms and pain are unbearable, surgeons need to be clear that the risk of death is considerably elevated.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, therapeutic study.

Serum and plasma protein biomarkers associated with frailty in patients with cirrhosis

Frailty, a clinical phenotype of decreased physiological reserve, is a strong determinant of adverse health outcomes in patients with cirrhosis. The only cirrhosis-specific frailty metric is the Liver Frailty Index (LFI), which must be administered in person and may not be feasible for every clinical scenario. We sought to discover candidate serum/plasma protein biomarkers that could differentiate frail from robust patients with cirrhosis. A total of 140 adults with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation in the ambulatory setting with LFI assessments and available serum/plasma samples were included. We selected 70 pairs of patients on opposite ends of the frailty spectrum (LFI>4.4 for frail and LFI<3.2 for robust) who were matched by age, sex, etiology, HCC, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium. Twenty-five biomarkers with biologically plausible associations with frailty were analyzed using ELISA by a single laboratory. Conditional logistic regression was used to examine their association with frailty. Of the 25 biomarkers analyzed, we identified 7 proteins that were differentially expressed between frail and robust patients. We observed differences in 6 of the 7 proteins in the expected direction: (a) higher median values in frail versus robust with growth differentiation factor-15 (3682 vs. 2249 pg/mL), IL-6 (17.4 vs. 6.4 pg/mL), TNF-alpha receptor 1 (2062 vs. 1627 pg/mL), leucine-rich alpha-2 glycoprotein (44.0 vs. 38.6 μg/mL), and myostatin (4066 vs. 6006 ng/mL) and (b) lower median values in frail versus robust with alpha-2-Heremans-Schmid glycoprotein (0.11 vs. 0.13 mg/mL) and free total testosterone (1.2 vs. 2.4 ng/mL). These biomarkers represent inflammatory, musculoskeletal, and endocrine/metabolic systems, reflecting the multiple physiological derangements observed in frailty. These data lay the foundation for confirmatory work and development of a laboratory frailty index for patients with cirrhosis to improve diagnosis and prognostication.

MELD, MELD 3.0, versus Child score to predict mortality after acute variceal hemorrhage: A multicenter US cohort

BACKGROUND

Acute variceal hemorrhage is a major decompensating event in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with high 6-week mortality risk. Many prognostic models based on clinical and laboratory parameters have been developed to risk stratify patients on index bleeding presentation, including those based on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP). However, consensus on model performance remains unclear.

METHODS

Using a large US multicenter cohort of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis who presented with acute variceal hemorrhage, this study evaluates, recalibrates, and compares liver severity index-based models, including the more recent MELD 3.0 model, to investigate their predictive performance on 6-week mortality. Models were also recalibrated and externally validated using additional external centers.

RESULTS

All recalibrated MELD-based and CTP-based models had excellent discrimination to identify patients at higher risk for 6-week mortality on initial presentation. The recalibrated CTP score model maintained the best calibration and performance within the validation cohort. Patients with low CTP scores (Class A, score 5-6) were strongly associated with < 5% mortality, while high CTP score (Class C, score > 9) were associated with > 20% mortality.

CONCLUSION

Use of liver severity index-based models accurately predict 6-week mortality risk for patients admitted to the hospital with acute variceal hemorrhage and supports the utilization of these models in future clinical trials as well as their use in clinical practice.

Intravascular Ultrasound Guidance for Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Creation Reduces Laboratory Markers of Acute Liver Injury

PURPOSE

To compare the laboratory markers of acute liver injury after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation performed using intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) guidance with those using other techniques.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This single-center, retrospective study examined 293 TIPS procedures performed between 2014 and 2022 (160 men; mean age, 57.4 years; 71.7% with ascites, 158 with IVUS). Laboratory changes on postprocedural day (PPD) 1 were classified based on Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) grades and were compared between IVUS and non-IVUS cases.

RESULTS

IVUS cases had a lower baseline Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (12.5 vs 13.7, P = .016), higher pre- (16.8 vs 15.2, P = .009), and post-TIPS (6.6 vs 5.4 mm Hg, P < .001) pressure gradient, smaller stent diameter (9.2 vs 9.9 mm, P < .001), and fewer needle passes (2.4 vs 4.2, P < .001). IVUS predicted a lower PPD 1 CTCAE grade for aspartate transaminase (8.0% vs 22.2% grade ≥ 2, P = .010), alanine transaminase (ALT) (2.2% vs 7.1%, P = .017), and bilirubin (9.4% vs 26.2%, P < .001), findings confirmed using multivariable regression and propensity score analysis. IVUS predicted fewer adverse events (1.3% vs 8.1%, P = .008) and an increased likelihood of PPD 1 discharge (81% vs 59%, P = .004). IVUS was not associated with differences in PPD 30 MELD scores or 30-day survival; however, higher PPD 1 ALT (β = 1.96, P = .008) and bilirubin levels (β = 1.38, P = .004) predicted larger PPD 30 MELD score increase. Higher increases in ALT level predicted worse 30-day survival (hazard ratio, 1.93; P = .021).

CONCLUSION

IVUS resulted in less laboratory evidence of acute liver injury immediately following TIPS creation.

The number of hepatocellular carcinoma foci as predictor of poor response to tumor-directed therapies in patients awaiting liver transplantation: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Tumor-directed therapies (TDTs) are a constitutive part of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment in patients awaiting liver transplantation (LT). While most patients benefit from TDTs as a bridge to LT, some patients drop out from the waiting list due to tumor progression. The study aimed to determine the risk factors for poor treatment outcome following TDTs among patients with HCC awaiting LT.

METHODS

A total of 123 patients with HCC were evaluated with 92 patients meeting Milan Criteria enrolled in the prospective cohort study. Tumor response was evaluated using the modified Response Evaluation Criteria for Solid Tumors for HCC 1 month after the procedure. The risk factors for progressive disease (PD) and dropout were evaluated.

RESULTS

After TDT, 55 patients (59.8%) achieved complete or partial response (44.6% and 15.2% respectively), 17 patients (18.5%) had stable disease, and 20 patients (21.7%) were assessed as PD. Multivariate analysis revealed a significant and independent association between the number of HCC foci and PD ( P  = 0.03, OR = 2.68). There was no statistically significant association between treatment response and demographics, MELDNa score, pre-and post-treatment alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), cumulative tumor burden the largest tumor size, or TDT modality. PD was the major cause of dropout in our cohort. Pre-treatment AFP levels ≥200 ng/ml had a strong association with dropout after TDTs ( P  = 0.0005).

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated the presence of multifocal HCC is the sole prognostic factor for PD following TDTs in HCC patients awaiting LT. We recommend prioritizing patients with multifocal HCC within Milan criteria by exception points for LT to improve the dropout rate.

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease 3.0 is not superior to the Model for End-stage Liver Disease-Na in predicting survival: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 yields high prognostic performance for patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD). However, its prognostic performance for patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) has limited results. The aim of this study was to perform such an evaluation among Chinese patients.

METHODS

Patients hospitalized with ARLD in one institution between 2015 and 2018 were retrospectively included and followed up for 12 months. The original MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, and modified Maddrey discriminant function (MDF) scores were calculated for each patient at baseline. Their prognostic performances for 1-year survival were assessed. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed, and AUCs were calculated for each scoring system.

RESULTS

Among the 576 patients included in our analysis, 209 patients had alcoholic hepatitis (AH). By the 1-year follow-up, 14.8% (84/567) of all the patients and 23.4% (49/209) of those with AH had died. Overall, patients who had died had higher MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, and MDF scores (all p < 0.001) than those who had not. The same was true in the AH subgroup (MELD: p < 0.001, MELD-Na: p < 0.001, MELD 3.0: p = 0.007, MDF: p = 0.017). The AUC of the MELD 3.0 for prediction of 1-year survival among patients with ARLD was 0.682, lower than that of the original MELD (0.728, p < 0.001) and MELD-Na (0.735, p < 0.001). Moreover, in the AH subgroup, the AUC for the prediction of 1-year survival was lower than that in the MELD-Na subgroup (0.634 vs. 0.708, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD 3.0 was not superior to the original MELD or the MELD-Na in predicting the mortality of patients with ARLD.

Efficiency and safety of total plasma exchange in critically ill cirrhotic patients with acute on chronic liver failure: A pilot study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Treatment of patients with acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) admitted to the ICU is very limited. The aim of this pilot study was to evaluate the efficiency on liver function and safety of therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE) in critically ill cirrhotic patients admitted with ACLF in a liver ICU.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort of patients with ACLF grade > 2 treated by TPE admitted to the ICU that was matched to a control group. TPE was performed using a plasma filter (TPE2000, BAXTER®) on a CRRT machine (Prismaflex®, Baxter®). Ratio and type of fluid replacement were 50 % with 5 % albumin solution followed by 50 % with fresh frozen plasma.

RESULTS

Seven patients with a mean age of 50.6 ± 7.8 years (all males) and 14 controls matched to age, sex, etiology and cause of decompensation were recruited. At ICU admission, mean MELD score was 39.1 ± 2.7, mean SOFA score was 11.6 ± 5.2 and mean CLIF SOFA score was 12.9 ± 2.6. The grade of ACLF was 3 for 3 patients (42.9 %) and 2 for 4 patients (57.1 %). The TPE group had significantly higher levels of bilirubin (392.3 ± 117.1μmol/l vs. 219 ± 185μmol/l , p = 0.04), and INR values (5.7 ± 3.4 vs. 3.5 ± 0.9, p < 0.005) compared to the control group. Patient survival was respectively 28.6 % and 14.3 % at 30 and 90 days in the TPE group and 35.7 % and 7.14 % in the control group respectively (HR: 1 (95 % CI 0.19- 5.2; p = 1). One patient in the TPE group had a liver transplantation 13 days after admission to ICU and is still alive and none in the control group. Two (28.6 %) patients died from complications related to the double lumen catheter used for TPE.

CONCLUSION

This pilot study of TPE in patients with ACLF grade 2 and 3 showed a marked but transient improvement in liver function tests. TPE worth to be evaluated in large trials in ACLF patients, with a liver transplant project, and less organ failure.

Validation of MELD 3.0 scoring system in East Asian patients with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation

Recently, a new predictive model that jointly considers the Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 and albumin has been proposed. This study investigated the performance of the MELD 3.0 score in predicting the 3-month survival of East Asian patients with cirrhosis compared with the other MELD-based scores. Validation was performed with the retrospective data of 2153 patients in South Korea who were listed for liver transplantation (LT). Discrimination and calibration analyses were performed using the MELD-based scores as an independent variable. On average, patients had the original MELD score of 18.70 ± 9.65. Alcohol (39.99%) and chronic HBV (38.55%) were the 2 main etiologies. The MELD 3.0 with albumin showed slightly better discrimination [c-index = 0.738, incremental AUC (iAUC) = 0.719] compared with the MELD 3.0 without albumin (c-index = 0.737, iAUC = 0.715), MELD-Na (c-index = 0.730, iAUC = 0.707), or the original MELD (c-index = 0.718, iAUC = 0.687) for predicting 3-month survival but not significantly different compared with prior models. Likewise, in the stratified analysis according to the strata of MELD, although the performance of MELD 3.0 was better throughout all the MELD strata than MELD original, there was no statistical difference in performance. The MELD 3.0 with albumin reclassified 22.61% of cases classified by the original MELD to higher MELD score categories, and there was no significant difference in the reclassification rate between males and females. The predictive power of the MELD-based system is lower in Asian populations than in western countries. Nonetheless, the MELD 3.0 score with albumin was significantly better in predicting the short-term prognosis of East Asian patients on the LT waitlist than the current allocation system, original MELD.

Validation of a pre-endoscopy risk score for predicting the presence of gastric intestinal metaplasia in a U.S. population

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Surveillance of gastric intestinal metaplasia (GIM) may lead to early gastric cancer detection. Our purpose was to externally validate a predictive model for endoscopic GIM previously developed in a veteran population in a second U.S.

POPULATION

METHODS

We previously developed a pre-endoscopy risk model for detection of GIM using 423 GIM cases and 1796 control subjects from the Houston Veterans Affairs Hospital. The model included sex, age, race/ethnicity, smoking, and Helicobacter pylori infection with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of .73 for GIM and .82 for extensive GIM. We validated this model in a second cohort of patients from 6 Catholic Health Initiative (CHI)-St Luke's hospitals (Houston, Tex, USA) from January to December 2017. Cases were defined as having GIM on any gastric biopsy sample and extensive GIM as involving both the antrum and corpus. We further optimized the model by pooling both cohorts and assessing discrimination using AUROC.

RESULTS

The risk model was validated in 215 GIM cases (55 with extensive GIM) and 2469 control subjects. Cases were older than control subjects (59.8 vs 54.7 years) with more nonwhites (59.1% vs 42.0%) and H pylori infections (23.7% vs 10.9%). The model applied to the CHI-St Luke's cohort had an AUROC of .62 (95% confidence interval [CI], .57-.66) for predicting GIM and of .71 (95% CI, .63-.79) for predicting extensive GIM. When the Veterans Affairs and CHI-St Luke's cohorts were pooled, discrimination of both models improved (GIM vs extensive GIM AUROC: .74 vs .82).

CONCLUSIONS

A pre-endoscopy risk prediction model was validated and updated using a second U.S. cohort with robust discrimination for endoscopic GIM. This model should be evaluated in other U.S. populations to risk-stratify patients for endoscopic GIM screening.

Novel Liver Injury Phenotypes and Outcomes in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Background

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) are disorders of the pulmonary vasculature that cause right ventricular dysfunction. Systemic consequences of right ventricular dysfunction include damage to other solid organs, such as the liver. However, the profiles and consequences of hepatic injury due to PAH and CTEPH have not been well-studied.

Methods

We aimed to identify underlying patterns of liver injury in a cohort of PAH and CTEPH patients enrolled in 15 randomized clinical trials conducted between 1998 and 2012. We used unsupervised machine learning to identify liver injury clusters in 13 trials and validated the findings in two additional trials. We then determined whether these liver injury clusters were associated with clinical outcomes or treatment effect heterogeneity.

Results

Our training dataset included 4,219 patients and our validation dataset included 1,756 patients with complete liver laboratory panels (serum total bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, and albumin). Using k-means clustering paired with factor analysis, we identified four unique liver phenotypes (no liver injury, hepatocellular injury, cholestatic injury, and combined injury patterns). Patients in the cholestatic injury liver cluster had the shortest time to clinical worsening and highest chance of worsening World Health Organization functional class. Randomization to the experimental arm was associated with a transition to healthier liver clusters compared to randomization to the control arm. The cholestatic injury group experienced the greatest placebo-corrected treatment benefit in terms of six-minute walk distance.

Conclusions

Liver injury patterns were associated with adverse outcomes in patients with PAH and CTEPH. Randomization to active treatment of pulmonary hypertension in these clinical trials had beneficial effects on liver health compared to placebo. The independent role of liver disease (often subclinical) in determining outcomes warrants prospective studies of the clinical utility of liver phenotyping for PAH prognosis and contribution to clinical disease.

Liver Transplantation in People Living with HIV: Still an Experimental Procedure or Standard of Care?

Liver transplantation (LT) is the only curative treatment for various liver diseases, including acute liver failure, end-stage liver disease, and selected unresectable liver malignancies. Combination antiretroviral therapy has improved outcomes for people living with HIV (PLWH), transforming the status of acquired immune deficiency syndrome from a fatal disease to a chronic and manageable condition. These powerful antiviral therapies have not only increased the number of HIV+ enlisted patients by improving their survival but also made the use of HIV+ organs a viable option. In this review, we summarise current knowledge on the peculiarities of liver transplantation in PLWH. In particular, we focus on the indications, contraindications, specific considerations for treatment, and outcomes of LT in PLWH. Finally, we present available preliminary data on the use of HIV+ liver allografts.

IL-10 predicts the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure combined with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis

Background

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is common in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). The prognostic value of interleukin-related serum markers for patients with ACLF is coming to the fore. However, there is an unmet need to predict the survival of such patients. We aimed to analyze the independent predictors of 28- and 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients with SBP.

Methods

This was a retrospective study that included 368 patients with HBV-ACLF. In the SBP group, logistic regression analysis was used to understand the independent predictors of mortality at 28-day and 90-day. The accuracy of prediction was analyzed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Finally, decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to determine the clinical utility value.

Results

Interleukin 10 (IL-10) levels were statistically significantly different between the HBV-ACLF group with SBP and without. Aspartate aminotransferase (AST), serum sodium, IL-10 and vasoactive drug treatment were independent risk factors for 28-day mortality. International normalized ratio (INR), AST and IL-10 were independent risk factors for 90-day mortality. IL-10 combined with the Chinese Severe Hepatitis B Study Group-ACLF II score (COSH-ACLF IIs) had excellent performance in predicting 28- and 90-day mortality (AUCs: 0.848 and 0.823, respectively). DCA analysis suggests promising clinical utility.

Conclusion

IL-10 is an independent predictor of mortality at 28- and 90-day in HBV-ACLF patients with SBP and predictive performance is improved when combined with COSH-ACLF IIs.