The impact of global climate change on genetic diversity within populations and species

Northern areas as refugia for temperate species under current climate warming: Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) as a model in northern Europe

In this work, patterns of geographical genetic diversity in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar were studied across the whole Atlantic Arc; whether these patterns (and thus genetic population structure) were affected by water temperatures was also evaluated. Salmo salar populations were characterized using microsatellite loci and then analysed with reference to ocean surface temperature data from across the region. Analysis showed the presence of a latitudinal cline of genetic variability (higher in northern areas) and water temperatures (sea surface temperatures) determining genetic population structure (the latter in combination with genetic drift in southern populations). Under the current global change scenario, northern areas of Europe would constitute refugia for diversity in the future. This is effectively the inverse of what appears to have happened in glacial refugia during the last glacial maximum. From this perspective, the still abundant and large northern populations S. salar should be considered as precious as the small almost relict southern ones and given appropriate protection. Careful management of the species, coordinated across countries and latitudes, is needed in order to avoid its extinction in Europe.

Microgeographic variation in recruitment under adult trees: arrival of new genotypes or perpetuation of the existing ones?

Investigating spatial variation in the relative importance of sexual reproduction and clonal propagation is critical to obtain more accurate estimates of future effective population sizes and genetic diversity, as well as to identify ecological correlates of clonality. We combined a stratified sampling scheme with microsatellite genetic analyses to estimate variation in the proportion of sexual versus clonal recruits among saplings in five populations of the tree Pyrus bourgaeana. Using a likelihood framework, we identified clones among the genotypes analysed and examined variation among populations regarding the proportion of saplings coming from clonal propagation. We also examined the relationship between the relative abundance of clonal shoots across the studied populations and their herbivory levels. Our results revealed that one third of the saplings examined (N = 225 saplings) had a probability above 0.9 of being clones of nearby (<10 m) trees, with the ratio between clonal propagation and sexual recruitment varying up to eight-fold among populations. A small portion of these putative clonal shoots reached sexual maturity. Relative abundance of clonal shoots did not significantly relate to the herbivory by ungulates. Our results call into question optimistic expectations of previous studies reporting sufficient levels of recruitment under parental trees without animal seed dispersal services. Nevertheless, given that some of these clonal shoots reach sexual maturity, clonal propagation can ultimately facilitate the long-term persistence of populations during adverse periods (e.g. environmental stress, impoverished pollinator communities, seed dispersal limitation).

Genetic diversity, inbreeding and cancer

Genetic diversity is essential for adaptive capacities, providing organisms with the potential of successfully responding to intrinsic and extrinsic challenges. Although a clear reciprocal link between genetic diversity and resistance to parasites and pathogens has been established across taxa, the impact of loss of genetic diversity by inbreeding on the emergence and progression of non-communicable diseases, such as cancer, has been overlooked. Here we provide an overview of such associations and show that low genetic diversity and inbreeding associate with an increased risk of cancer in both humans and animals. Cancer being a multifaceted disease, loss of genetic diversity can directly (via accumulation of oncogenic homozygous mutations) and indirectly (via increased susceptibility to oncogenic pathogens) impact abnormal cell emergence and escape of immune surveillance. The observed link between reduced genetic diversity and cancer in wildlife may further imperil the long-term survival of numerous endangered species, highlighting the need to consider the impact of cancer in conservation biology. Finally, the somewhat incongruent data originating from human studies suggest that the association between genetic diversity and cancer development is multifactorial and may be tumour specific. Further studies are therefore crucial in order to elucidate the underpinnings of the interactions between genetic diversity, inbreeding and cancer.

Spatial differences in genetic diversity and northward migration suggest genetic erosion along the boreal caribou southern range limit and continued range retraction

With increasing human activities and associated landscape changes, distributions of terrestrial mammals become fragmented. These changes in distribution are often associated with reduced population sizes and loss of genetic connectivity and diversity (i.e., genetic erosion) which may further diminish a species' ability to respond to changing environmental conditions and lead to local population extinctions. We studied threatened boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations across their distribution in Ontario/Manitoba (Canada) to assess changes in genetic diversity and connectivity in areas of high and low anthropogenic activity. Using data from >1,000 caribou and nine microsatellite loci, we assessed population genetic structure, genetic diversity, and recent migration rates using a combination of network and population genetic analyses. We used Bayesian clustering analyses to identify population genetic structure and explored spatial and temporal variation in those patterns by assembling networks based on R ST and F ST as historical and contemporary genetic edge distances, respectively. The Bayesian clustering analyses identified broad-scale patterns of genetic structure and closely aligned with the R ST network. The F ST network revealed substantial contemporary genetic differentiation, particularly in areas presenting contemporary anthropogenic disturbances and habitat fragmentation. In general, relatively lower genetic diversity and greater genetic differentiation were detected along the southern range limit, differing from areas in the northern parts of the distribution. Moreover, estimation of migration rates suggested a northward movement of animals away from the southern range limit. The patterns of genetic erosion revealed in our study suggest ongoing range retraction of boreal caribou in central Canada.

Climate change will reduce suitable Caatinga dry forest habitat for endemic plants with disproportionate impacts on specialized reproductive strategies

Global climate change alters the dynamic of natural ecosystems and directly affects species distributions, persistence and diversity. The impacts of climate change may lead to dramatic changes in biotic interactions, such as pollination and seed dispersal. Life history traits are extremely important to consider the vulnerability of a species to climate change, producing more robust models than those based primarily on species distributions. Here, we hypothesized that rising temperatures and aridity will reduce suitable habitats for the endemic flora of the Caatinga, the most diverse dry tropical forest on Earth. Specifically, species with specialized reproductive traits (e.g. vertebrate pollination, biotic dispersal, obligatory cross-pollination) should be more affected by climate change than those with generalist traits. We performed two ecological niche models (current and future) to simulate the effects of climate change on the distribution area of endemic species in relation to life-history traits. We used the MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 models for both intermediate (RCP4.5) and highest predicted (RCP8.5) GHG emission scenarios, with a resolution of 30' (~1 km²). Habitat with high occurrence probability (>80%) of endemic species will be reduced (up to ~10% for trees, ~13% for non-arboreous, 10–28% for species with any pollination/reproductive system), with the greatest reductions for species with specialized reproductive traits. In addition, the likely concentration of endemic plants in the extreme northeastern portion of the Caatinga, in more mesic areas, coincides with the currently most human-modified areas of the ecosystem, which combined with climate change will further contract suitable habitats of endemic species. In conclusion, plant species endemic to the Caatinga are highly vulnerable to even conservative scenarios of future climate change and may lose much of their climatic envelopes. New protected areas should be located in the northeastern portion of the Caatinga, which hosts a more favorable climate, but is currently exposed to escalating agricultural intensification.

Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections

Forecasts of species vulnerability and extinction risk under future climate change commonly ignore local adaptations despite their importance for determining the potential of populations to respond to future changes. We present an approach to assess the impacts of global climate change on biodiversity that takes into account adaptive genetic variation and evolutionary potential. We show that considering local climatic adaptations reduces range loss projections but increases the potential for competition between species. Our findings suggest that failure to account for within-species variability can result in overestimation of future biodiversity losses. Therefore, it is important to identify the climate-adaptive potential of populations and to increase landscape connectivity between populations to enable the spread of adaptive genetic variation.

Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species’ future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population’s adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

Phylogeographic structure and ecological niche modelling reveal signals of isolation and postglacial colonisation in the European stag beetle

Lucanus cervus (L.), the stag beetle, is a saproxylic beetle species distributed widely across Europe. Throughout its distribution the species has exhibited pronounced declines and is widely considered threatened. Conservation efforts may be hindered by the lack of population genetic data and understanding of the spatial scale of population connectivity. To address this knowledge gap this research details the first broad scale phylogeographic study of L. cervus based on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequencing and microsatellite analysis of samples collected from 121 localities across Europe. Genetic data were complemented by palaeo-distribution models of spatial occupancy during the Last Glacial Maximum to strengthen inferences of refugial areas. A salient feature of the mtDNA was the identification of two lineages. Lineage I was widespread across Europe while lineage II was confined to Greece. Microsatellites supported the differentiation of the Greek samples and alongside palaeo-distribution models indicated this area was a glacial refuge. The genetic endemism of the Greek samples, and demographic results compatible with no signatures of spatial expansion likely reflects restricted dispersal into and out of the area. Lineage I exhibited a shallow star like phylogeny compatible with rapid population expansion across Europe. Demographic analysis indicated such expansions occurred after the Last Glacial Maximum. Nuclear diversity and hindcast species distribution models indicated a central Italian refuge for lineage I. Palaeo-distribution modelling results also suggested a western refuge in northern Iberia and south-west France. In conclusion the results provide evidence of glacial divergence in stag beetle while also suggesting high, at least on evolutionary timescales, gene flow across most of Europe. The data also provide a neutral genetic framework against which patterns of phenotypic variation may be assessed.

Melanin-based coloration and host-parasite interactions under global change

The role of parasites in shaping melanin-based colour polymorphism, and the consequences of colour polymorphism for disease resistance, remain debated. Here we review recent evidence of the links between melanin-based coloration and the behavioural and immunological defences of vertebrates against their parasites. First we propose that (1) differences between colour morphs can result in variable exposure to parasites, either directly (certain colours might be more or less attractive to parasites) or indirectly (variations in behaviour and encounter probability). Once infected, we propose that (2) immune variation between differently coloured individuals might result in different abilities to cope with parasite infection. We then discuss (3) how these different abilities could translate into variable sexual and natural selection in environments varying in parasite pressure. Finally, we address (4) the potential role of parasites in the maintenance of melanin-based colour polymorphism, especially in the context of global change and multiple stressors in human-altered environments. Because global change will probably affect both coloration and the spread of parasitic diseases in the decades to come, future studies should take into account melanin-based coloration to better predict the evolutionary responses of animals to changing disease risk in human-altered environments.

Phylogeography and niche modelling: reciprocal enlightenment

Phylogeography examines the spatial genetic structure of species. Environmental niche modelling (or ecological niche modelling; ENM) examines the environmental limits of a species’ ecological niche. These two fields have great potential to be used together. ENM can shed light on how phylogeographical patterns develop and help identify possible drivers of spatial structure that need to be further investigated. Specifically, ENM can be used to test for niche differentiation among clades, identify factors limiting individual clades and identify barriers and contact zones. It can also be used to test hypotheses regarding the effects of historical and future climate change on spatial genetic patterns by projecting niches using palaeoclimate or future climate data. Conversely, phylogeographical information can populate ENM with within-species genetic diversity. Where adaptive variation exists among clades within a species, modelling their niches separately can improve predictions of historical distribution patterns and future responses to climate change. Awareness of patterns of genetic diversity in niche modelling can also alert conservationists to the potential loss of genetically diverse areas in a species’ range. Here, we provide a simplistic overview of both fields, and focus on their potential for integration, encouraging researchers on both sides to take advantage of the opportunities available.

Genetic diversity in frogs linked to past and future climate changes on the roof of the world

Mountains, representing storehouses of biodiversity, endemism and threatened species, are biodiversity hotspots of great conservation importance. However, increasing evidence indicates that mountain species throughout the world are responding to climate change, past or contemporary, by shifting their geographic distributions and patterns of genetic diversity, potentially affecting their adaptive capacity and increasing risk of extinction. Using the iconic high-elevation frog Nanorana parkeri as indicator, we showed how spatial analyses of climatic stability combined with genetic data allow unravelling amphibian responses to past and future climate changes on 'the roof of the world'-the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We found that areas along the Yarlung Tsangpo Valley were climatically more stable relative to other regions, apparently serving as a large climatic refugium during Quaternary glaciations, but that these areas will likely be affected by future climate change. As populations closer to Quaternary refugia usually had higher genetic diversity, current genetic diversity can be explained in the largest part by distance to historically stable areas, outweighing other historical and contemporary factors. Along with the dynamics of suitable range, a fluctuating habitat fragmentation supported the pattern of historical changes in genetic diversity (N_e ) over time. Our results emphasize strong relationships between amphibian genetic diversity, past range dynamics and where to preserve suitable habitats in the face of future climate changes. More generally, our findings highlighted a central role of refugia during Quaternary climatic fluctuations, and how isolation from refugia may have modulated amphibian genetic diversity across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Upward elevation and northwest range shifts for alpine Meconopsis species in the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains region

Climate change may impact the distribution of species by shifting their ranges to higher elevations or higher latitudes. The impacts on alpine plant species may be particularly profound due to a potential lack of availability of future suitable habitat. To identify how alpine species have responded to climate change during the past century as well as to predict how they may react to possible global climate change scenarios in the future, we investigate the climatic responses of seven species of Meconopsis, a representative genus endemic in the alpine meadow and subnival region of the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains. We analyzed past elevational shifts, as well as projected shifts in longitude, latitude, elevation, and range size using historical specimen records and species distribution modeling under optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios across three general circulation models for 2070. Our results indicate that across all seven species, there has been an upward shift in mean elevation of 302.3 m between the pre-1970s (1922-1969) and the post-1970s (1970-2016). The model predictions suggest that the future suitable climate space will continue to shift upwards in elevation (as well as northwards and westwards) by 2070. While for most of the analyzed species, the area of suitable climate space is predicted to expand under the optimistic emission scenario, the area contracts, or, at best, shows little change under the pessimistic scenario. Species such as M. punicea, which already occupy high latitudes, are consistently predicted to experience a contraction of suitable climate space across all the models by 2070 and may consequently deserve particular attention by conservation strategies. Collectively, our results suggest that the alpine high-latitude species analyzed here have already been significantly impacted by climate change and that these trends may continue over the coming decades.

Experimental drought reduces genetic diversity in the grassland foundation species Bouteloua eriopoda

Understanding the resistance and resilience of foundation plant species to climate change is a critical issue because the loss of these species would fundamentally reshape communities and ecosystem processes. High levels of population genetic diversity may buffer foundation species against climate disruptions, but the strong selective pressures associated with climatic shifts may also rapidly reduce such diversity. We characterized genetic diversity and its responsiveness to experimental drought in the foundation plant, black grama grass (Bouteloua eriopoda), which dominates many western North American grasslands and shrublands. Previous studies suggested that in arid ecosystems, black grama reproduces largely asexually via stolons, and thus is likely to have low genetic variability, which might limit its potential to respond to climate disruptions. Using genotyping-by-sequencing, we demonstrated unexpectedly high genetic variability among black grama plants in a 1 ha site within the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge in central New Mexico, suggesting some level of sexual reproduction. Three years of experimental, growing season drought reduced black grama survival and biomass (the latter by 96%), with clear genetic differentiation (higher F_ST) between plants succumbing to drought and those remaining alive. Reduced genetic variability in the surviving plants in drought plots indicated that the experimental drought had forced black grama populations through selection bottlenecks. These results suggest that foundation grass species, such as black grama, may experience rapid evolutionary change if future climates include more severe droughts.

Loss of genetic diversity, recovery and allele surfing in a colonizing parasite, Geomydoecus aurei

Understanding the genetic consequences of changes in species distributions has wide-ranging implications for predicting future outcomes of climate change, for protecting threatened or endangered populations and for understanding the history that has led to current genetic patterns within species. Herein, we examine the genetic consequences of range expansion over a 25-year period in a parasite (Geomydoecus aurei) that is in the process of expanding its geographic range via invasion of a novel host. By sampling the genetics of 1,935 G. aurei lice taken from 64 host individuals collected over this time period using 12 microsatellite markers, we test hypotheses concerning linear spatial expansion, genetic recovery time and allele surfing. We find evidence of decreasing allelic richness (AR) with increasing distance from the source population, supporting a linear, stepping stone model of spatial expansion that emphasizes the effects of repeated bottleneck events during colonization. We provide evidence of post-bottleneck genetic recovery, with average AR of infrapopulations increasing about 30% over the 225-generation span of time observed directly in this study. Our estimates of recovery rate suggest, however, that recovery has plateaued and that this population may not reach genetic diversity levels of the source population without further immigration from the source population. Finally, we employ a grid-based sampling scheme in the region of ongoing population expansion and provide empirical evidence for the power of allele surfing to impart genetic structure on a population, even under conditions of selective neutrality and in a place that lacks strong barriers to gene flow.

Assessing the Speciation of a Cold Water Species, Japanese Sand Lance Ammodytes personatus, in the Northwestern Pacific by AFLP Markers

The use of molecular techniques in biodiversity research increasingly results in the recognition of multiple divergent mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages below the morphospecies level. However, the overlapping distribution of multiple divergent lineages raises the question of whether some of these lineages are in fact cryptic species. Assessing the status of these divergent lineages, delimiting evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), and identifying the dominant evolutionary and ecological drivers are critical components of successful wildlife conservation and management strategies. Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers were applied to characterize the phylogeography pattern of a cold water species, the Japanese sand lance Ammodytes personatus, in warm and cold ocean currents. A total of 211 individuals sampled from 12 populations through the species' range, including samples from Kuroshio Current, Oyashio Current, Tsushima Current, and Yellow Sea, were analyzed. The Bayesian assignment probability test and Neighbor joining (NJ) analysis divided these populations into two genetically and geographically distinct clades (northern and southern clades) characterized by different sea surface temperatures. The incongruence between nuclear clades and previous mitochondrial lineages suggested that A. personatus is indeed composed of at least two genetically divergent cryptic species. Pleistocene glaciation isolation after secondary contact, local thermal adaptation, and isolation by distance may explain the observed geographic pattern of two cryptic species and genetic structure within clades.

Quaternary climate instability is correlated with patterns of population genetic variability in Bombus huntii

Climate oscillations have left a significant impact on the patterns of genetic diversity observed in numerous taxa. In this study, we examine the effect of Quaternary climate instability on population genetic variability of a bumble bee pollinator species, Bombus huntii in western North America. Pleistocene and contemporary B. huntii habitat suitability (HS) was estimated with an environmental niche model (ENM) by associating 1,035 locality records with 10 bioclimatic variables. To estimate genetic variability, we genotyped 380 individuals from 33 localities at 13 microsatellite loci. Bayesian inference was used to examine population structure with and without a priori specification of geographic locality. We compared isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by resistance (IBR) models to examine population differentiation within and among the Bayesian inferred genetic clusters. Furthermore, we tested for the effect of environmental niche stability (ENS) on population genetic diversity with linear regression. As predicted, high-latitude B. huntii habitats exhibit low ENS when compared to low-latitude habitats. Two major genetic clusters of B. huntii inhabit western North America: (a) a north genetic cluster predominantly distributed north of 28°N and (b) a south genetic cluster distributed south of 28°N. In the south genetic cluser, both IBD and IBR models are significant. However, in the north genetic cluster, IBD is significant but not IBR. Furthermore, the IBR models suggest that low-latitude montane populations are surrounded by habitat with low HS, possibly limiting dispersal, and ultimately gene flow between populations. Finally, we detected high genetic diversity across populations in regions that have been climatically unstable since the last glacial maximum (LGM), and low genetic diversity across populations in regions that have been climatically stable since the LGM. Understanding how species have responded to climate change has the potential to inform management and conservation decisions of both ecological and economic concerns.

Regional variation in drivers of connectivity for two frog species (Rana pretiosa and R. luteiventris) from the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Comparative landscape genetics has uncovered high levels of variability in which landscape factors affect connectivity among species and regions. However, the relative importance of species traits versus environmental variation for predicting landscape patterns of connectivity is unresolved. We provide evidence from a landscape genetics study of two sister taxa of frogs, the Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) and the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) in Oregon and Idaho, USA. Rana pretiosa is relatively more dependent on moisture for dispersal than R. luteiventris, so if species traits influence connectivity, we predicted that connectivity among R. pretiosa populations would be more positively associated with moisture than R. luteiventris. However, if environmental differences are important drivers of gene flow, we predicted that connectivity would be more positively related to moisture in arid regions. We tested these predictions using eight microsatellite loci and gravity models in two R. pretiosa regions and four R. luteiventris regions (n = 1,168 frogs). In R. pretiosa, but not R. luteiventris, connectivity was positively related to mean annual precipitation, supporting our first prediction. In contrast, connectivity was not more positively related to moisture in more arid regions. Various temperature metrics were important predictors for both species and in all regions, but the directionality of their effects varied. Therefore, the pattern of variation in drivers of connectivity was consistent with predictions based on species traits rather than on environmental variation.

Identification of a contact zone and hybridization for two subspecies of the American pika (Ochotona princeps) within a single protected area

Genetic variation is the basis upon which natural selection acts to yield evolutionary change. In a rapidly changing environment, increasing genetic variation should increase evolutionary potential, particularly for small, isolated populations. However, the introduction of new alleles, either through natural or human-mediated processes, may have unpredictable consequences such as outbreeding depression. In this study, we identified a contact zone and limited gene flow between historically separated genetic lineages of American pikas (Ochotona princeps), representing the northern and southern Rocky Mountain subspecies, within Rocky Mountain National Park. The limited spatial extent of gene flow observed may be the result of geographic barriers to dispersal, selection against hybrid individuals, or both. Our fine-scale population genetic analysis suggests gene flow is limited but not completely obstructed by extreme topography such as glacial valleys, as well as streams including the Colorado River. The discovery of two subspecies within this single protected area has implications for monitoring and management, particularly in the light of recent analyses suggesting that the pikas in this park are vulnerable to fragmentation and local extinction under future projected climates. Future research should focus on the fitness consequences of introgression among distinct genetic lineages in this location and elsewhere, as well as within the context of genetic rescue as a conservation and management strategy for a climate sensitive species.

Population genetic structure and evolutionary history of Bale monkeys (Chlorocebus djamdjamensis) in the southern Ethiopian Highlands

Background

Species with a restricted geographic distribution, and highly specialized habitat and dietary requirements, are particularly vulnerable to extinction. The Bale monkey (Chlorocebus djamdjamensis) is a little-known arboreal, bamboo-specialist primate endemic to the southern Ethiopian Highlands. While most Bale monkeys inhabit montane forests dominated by bamboo, some occupy forest fragments where bamboo is much less abundant. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences to analyse the genetic structure and evolutionary history of Bale monkeys covering the majority of their remaining distribution range. We analysed 119 faecal samples from their two main habitats, continuous forest (CF) and fragmented forests (FF), and sequenced 735 bp of the hypervariable region I (HVI) of the control region. We added 12 orthologous sequences from congeneric vervets (C. pygerythrus) and grivets (C. aethiops) as well as animals identified as hybrids, previously collected in southern Ethiopia.

Results

We found strong genetic differentiation (with no shared mtDNA haplotypes) between Bale monkey populations from CF and FF. Phylogenetic analyses revealed two distinct and highly diverged clades: a Bale monkey clade containing only Bale monkeys from CF and a green monkey clade where Bale monkeys from FF cluster with grivets and vervets. Analyses of demographic history revealed that Bale monkey populations (CF and FF) have had stable population sizes over an extended period, but have all recently experienced population declines.

Conclusions

The pronounced genetic structure and deep mtDNA divergence between Bale monkey populations inhabiting CF and FF are likely to be the results of hybridization and introgression of the FF population with parapatric Chlorocebus species, in contrast to the CF population, which was most likely not impacted by hybridization. Hybridization in the FF population was probably enhanced by an alteration of the bamboo forest habitat towards a more open woodland habitat, which enabled the parapatric Chlorocebus species to invade the Bale monkey's range and introgress the FF population. We therefore propose that the CF and FF Bale monkey populations should be managed as separate units when developing conservation strategies for this threatened species.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-018-1217-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Genetic adaptation as a biological buffer against climate change: Potential and limitations

Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems and their biota, resulting in range shifts, novel interactions, food web alterations, changed intensities of host-parasite interactions, and extinctions. An increasing number of studies have documented evolutionary changes in traits such as phenology and thermal tolerance. In this opinion paper, we argue that, while evolutionary responses have the potential to provide a buffer against extinctions or range shifts, a number of constraints and complexities blur this simple prediction. First, there are limits to evolutionary potential both in terms of genetic variation and demographic effects, and these limits differ strongly among taxa and populations. Second, there can be costs associated with genetic adaptation, such as a reduced evolutionary potential towards other (human-induced) environmental stressors or direct fitness costs due to tradeoffs. Third, the differential capacity of taxa to genetically respond to climate change results in novel interactions because different organism groups respond to a different degree with local compared to regional (dispersal and range shift) responses. These complexities result in additional changes in the selection pressures on populations. We conclude that evolution can provide an initial buffer against climate change for some taxa and populations but does not guarantee their survival. It does not necessarily result in reduced extinction risks across the range of taxa in a region or continent. Yet, considering evolution is crucial, as it is likely to strongly change how biota will respond to climate change and will impact which taxa will be the winners or losers at the local, metacommunity and regional scales.

No genetic adaptation of the Mediterranean keystone shrub Cistus ladanifer in response to experimental fire and extreme drought

In Mediterranean ecosystems, climate change is projected to increase fire danger and summer drought, thus reducing post-fire recruitment of obligate seeder species, and possibly affecting the population genetic structure. We performed a genome-wide genetic marker study, using AFLP markers, on individuals from one Central Spain population of the obligate post-fire seeder Cistus ladanifer L. that established after experimental fire and survived during four subsequent years under simulated drought implemented with a rainout shelter system. We explored the effects of the treatments on marker diversity, spatial genetic structure and presence of outlier loci suggestive of selection. We found no effect of fire or drought on any of the genetic diversity metrics. Analysis of Molecular Variance showed very low genetic differentiation among treatments. Neither fire nor drought altered the small-scale spatial genetic structure of the population. Only one locus was significantly associated with the fire treatment, but inconsistently across outlier detection methods. Neither fire nor drought are likely to affect the genetic makeup of emerging C. ladanifer, despite reduced recruitment caused by drought. The lack of genetic change suggests that reduced recruitment is a random, non-selective process with no genome-wide consequences on this keystone, drought- and fire tolerant Mediterranean species.

Decadal stability in genetic variation and structure in the intertidal seaweed Fucus serratus (Heterokontophyta: Fucaceae)

BACKGROUND

The spatial distribution of genetic diversity and structure has important implications for conservation as it reveals a species' strong and weak points with regard to stability and evolutionary capacity. Temporal genetic stability is rarely tested in marine species other than commercially important fishes, but is crucial for the utility of temporal snapshots in conservation management. High and stable diversity can help to mitigate the predicted northward range shift of seaweeds under the impact of climate change. Given the key ecological role of fucoid seaweeds along rocky shores, the positive effect of genetic diversity may reach beyond the species level to stabilize the entire intertidal ecosystem along the temperate North Atlantic. In this study, we estimated the effective population size, as well as temporal changes in genetic structure and diversity of the seaweed F. serratus using 22 microsatellite markers. Samples were taken across latitudes and a range of temperature regimes at seven locations with decadal sampling (2000 and 2010).

RESULTS

Across latitudes, genetic structure and diversity remained stable over 5-10 generations. Stable small-scale structure enhanced regional diversity throughout the species' range. In accordance with its biogeographic history, effective population size and diversity peaked in the species' mid-range in Brittany (France), and declined towards its leading and trailing edge to the north and south. At the species' southern edge, multi-locus-heterozygosity displayed a strong decline from 1999 to 2010.

CONCLUSION

Temporally stable genetic structure over small spatial scales is a potential driver for local adaptation and species radiation in the genus Fucus. Survival and adaptation of the low-diversity leading edge of F. serratus may be enhanced by regional gene flow and 'surfing' of favorable mutations or impaired by the accumulation of deleterious mutations. Our results have clear implications for the conservation of F. serratus at its genetically unique southern edge in Northwest Iberia, where increasing temperatures are likely the major cause for the decline not only of F. serratus, but also other intertidal and subtidal macroalgae. We expect that F. serratus will disappear from Northwest Iberia by 2100 if genetic rescue is not induced by the influx of genetic variation from Brittany.

Intraspecific ecological niche divergence and reproductive shifts foster cytotype displacement and provide ecological opportunity to polyploids

Background and Aims

Niche divergence between polyploids and their lower ploidy progenitors is one of the primary mechanisms fostering polyploid establishment and adaptive divergence. However, within-species chromosomal and reproductive variability have usually been neglected in community ecology and biodiversity analyses even though they have been recognized to play a role in the adaptive diversification of lineages.

Methods

We used Paspalum intermedium, a grass species with diverging genetic systems (diploidy vs. autopolyploidy, allogamy vs. autogamy and sexuality vs. apomixis), to recognize the causality of biogeographic patterns, adaptation and ecological flexibility of cytotypes. Chromosome counts and flow cytometry were used to characterize within-species genetic systems diversity. Environmental niche modelling was used to evaluate intraspecific ecological attributes associated with environmental and climatic factors and to assess correlations among ploidy, reproductive modes and ecological conditions ruling species' population dynamics, range expansion, adaptation and evolutionary history.

Key Results

Two dominant cytotypes non-randomly distributed along local and regional geographical scales displayed niche differentiation, a directional shift in niche optima and signs of disruptive selection on ploidy-related ecological aptitudes for the exploitation of environmental resources. Ecologically specialized allogamous sexual diploids were found in northern areas associated with higher temperature, humidity and productivity, while generalist autogamous apomictic tetraploids occurred in southern areas, occupying colder and less productive environments. Four localities with a documented shift in ploidy and four mixed populations in a zone of ecological transition revealed an uneven replacement between cytotypes.

Conclusions

Polyploidy and contrasting reproductive traits between cytotypes have promoted shifts in niche optima, and increased ecological tolerance and niche divergence. Ecologically specialized diploids maintain cytotype stability in core areas by displacing tetraploids, while broader ecological preferences and a shift from sexuality to apomixis favoured polyploid colonization in peripheral areas where diploids are displaced, and fostered the ecological opportunity for autotetraploids supporting range expansion to open southern habitats.

Molecular Detection and Genetic Diversity of Casuarina Moth, Lymantria xylina (Lepidoptera: Erebidae)

The casuarina moth, Lymantria xylina Swinhoe (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), is an important pest in the Australian pine tree, Casuarina equisetifolia, forest in the coastal area of South China. At the same time, as a closely related species of Lymantria dispar L. (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), it is also a potential quarantine pest. In the present study, specific primers were designed for identification of L. xylina based on the COI barcoding sequence between L. xylina and four other common forest pests. A 569-bp fragment was successfully amplified from 40 L. xylina from five geographical populations in four Chinese provinces. In addition, even through the analysis came from five highly diverse populations of L. xylina, the genetic distances ranged from 0.001 to 0.031. The neighbor-joining tree showed that the species from Hubei and Chongqing were clustered within a distinct group.

Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa

Climate change is predicted to impact species’ genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species’ ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species’ adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change.

Adaptive differentiation of Festuca rubra along a climate gradient revealed by molecular markers and quantitative traits

Species response to climate change is influenced by predictable (selective) and unpredictable (random) evolutionary processes. To understand how climate change will affect present-day species, it is necessary to assess their adaptive potential and distinguish it from the effects of random processes. This will allow predicting how different genotypes will respond to forecasted environmental change. Space for time substitution experiments are an elegant way to test the response of present day populations to climate variation in real time. Here we assess neutral and putatively adaptive variation in 11 populations of Festuca rubra situated along crossed gradients of temperature and moisture using molecular markers and phenotypic measurements, respectively. By comparing population differentiation in putatively neutral molecular markers and phenotypic traits (QST-FST comparisons), we show the existence of adaptive differentiation in phenotypic traits and their plasticity across the climatic gradient. The observed patterns of differentiation are due to the high genotypic and phenotypic differentiation of the populations from the coldest (and wettest) environment. Finally, we observe statistically significant covariation between markers and phenotypic traits, which is likely caused by isolation by adaptation. These results contribute to a better understanding of the current adaptation and evolutionary potential to face climate change of a widespread species. They can also be extrapolated to understand how the studied populations will adjust to upcoming climate change without going through the lengthy process of phenotyping.

Can species distribution models really predict the expansion of invasive species?

Predictive studies are of paramount importance for biological invasions, one of the biggest threats for biodiversity. To help and better prioritize management strategies, species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to predict the potential invasive range of introduced species. Yet, SDMs have been regularly criticized, due to several strong limitations, such as violating the equilibrium assumption during the invasion process. Unfortunately, validation studies–with independent data–are too scarce to assess the predictive accuracy of SDMs in invasion biology. Yet, biological invasions allow to test SDMs usefulness, by retrospectively assessing whether they would have accurately predicted the latest ranges of invasion. Here, we assess the predictive accuracy of SDMs in predicting the expansion of invasive species. We used temporal occurrence data for the Asian hornet Vespa velutina nigrithorax, a species native to China that is invading Europe with a very fast rate. Specifically, we compared occurrence data from the last stage of invasion (independent validation points) to the climate suitability distribution predicted from models calibrated with data from the early stage of invasion. Despite the invasive species not being at equilibrium yet, the predicted climate suitability of validation points was high. SDMs can thus adequately predict the spread of V. v. nigrithorax, which appears to be—at least partially–climatically driven. In the case of V. v. nigrithorax, SDMs predictive accuracy was slightly but significantly better when models were calibrated with invasive data only, excluding native data. Although more validation studies for other invasion cases are needed to generalize our results, our findings are an important step towards validating the use of SDMs in invasion biology.

Genetic Pattern and Demographic History of Salminus brasiliensis: Population Expansion in the Pantanal Region during the Pleistocene

Pleistocene climate changes were major historical events that impacted South American biodiversity. Although the effects of such changes are well-documented for several biomes, it is poorly known how these climate shifts affected the biodiversity of the Pantanal floodplain. Fish are one of the most diverse groups in the Pantanal floodplains and can be taken as a suitable biological model for reconstructing paleoenvironmental scenarios. To identify the effects of Pleistocene climate changes on Pantanal's ichthyofauna, we used genetic data from multiple populations of a top-predator long-distance migratory fish, Salminus brasiliensis. We specifically investigated whether Pleistocene climate changes affected the demography of this species. If this was the case, we expected to find changes in population size over time. Thus, we assessed the genetic diversity of S. brasiliensis to trace the demographic history of nine populations from the Upper Paraguay basin, which includes the Pantanal floodplain, that form a single genetic group, employing approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to test five scenarios: constant population, old expansion, old decline, old bottleneck following by recent expansion, and old expansion following by recent decline. Based on two mitochondrial DNA markers, our inferences from ABC analysis, the results of Bayesian skyline plot, the implications of star-like networks, and the patterns of genetic diversity (high haplotype diversity and low-to-moderate nucleotide diversity) indicated a sudden population expansion. ABC allowed us to make strong quantitative inferences about the demographic history of S. brasiliensis. We estimated a small ancestral population size that underwent a drastic fivefold expansion, probably associated with the colonization of newly formed habitats. The estimated time of this expansion was consistent with a humid and warm phase as inferred by speleothem growth phases and travertine records during Pleistocene interglacial periods. The strong concordance between our genetic inferences and this historical data could represent the first genetic record of a humid and warm phase in the Pantanal in the period since the Last Interglacial to 40 ka.

Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic

Intraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial-interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modelling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid-Holocene (6,000 YBP), and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross-validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected polewards expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran, and Morocco for warm-temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum-Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic, and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing.

An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population-level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype-environment association analysis, we identify potential climate-adaptive SNPs in our genomic data set and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore, a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.

Genomic basis and evolutionary potential for extreme drought adaptation in Arabidopsis thaliana

As Earth is currently experiencing dramatic climate change, it is of critical interest to understand how species will respond to it. The chance of a species withstanding climate change is likely to depend on the diversity within the species and, particularly, whether there are sub-populations that are already adapted to extreme environments. However, most predictive studies ignore that species comprise genetically diverse individuals. We have identified genetic variants in Arabidopsis thaliana that are associated with survival of an extreme drought event-a major consequence of global warming. Subsequently, we determined how these variants are distributed across the native range of the species. Genetic alleles conferring higher drought survival showed signatures of polygenic adaptation and were more frequently found in Mediterranean and Scandinavian regions. Using geo-environmental models, we predicted that Central European, but not Mediterranean, populations might lag behind in adaptation by the end of the twenty-first century. Further analyses showed that a population decline could nevertheless be compensated by natural selection acting efficiently over standing variation or by migration of adapted individuals from populations at the margins of the species' distribution. These findings highlight the importance of within-species genetic heterogeneity in facilitating an evolutionary response to a changing climate.

Cosmopolitan Species As Models for Ecophysiological Responses to Global Change: The Common Reed Phragmites australis

Phragmites australis is a cosmopolitan grass and often the dominant species in the ecosystems it inhabits. Due to high intraspecific diversity and phenotypic plasticity, P. australis has an extensive ecological amplitude and a great capacity to acclimate to adverse environmental conditions; it can therefore offer valuable insights into plant responses to global change. Here we review the ecology and ecophysiology of prominent P. australis lineages and their responses to multiple forms of global change. Key findings of our review are that: (1) P. australis lineages are well-adapted to regions of their phylogeographic origin and therefore respond differently to changes in climatic conditions such as temperature or atmospheric CO2; (2) each lineage consists of populations that may occur in geographically different habitats and contain multiple genotypes; (3) the phenotypic plasticity of functional and fitness-related traits of a genotype determine the responses to global change factors; (4) genotypes with high plasticity to environmental drivers may acclimate or even vastly expand their ranges, genotypes of medium plasticity must acclimate or experience range-shifts, and those with low plasticity may face local extinction; (5) responses to ancillary types of global change, like shifting levels of soil salinity, flooding, and drought, are not consistent within lineages and depend on adaptation of individual genotypes. These patterns suggest that the diverse lineages of P. australis will undergo intense selective pressure in the face of global change such that the distributions and interactions of co-occurring lineages, as well as those of genotypes within-lineages, are very likely to be altered. We propose that the strong latitudinal clines within and between P. australis lineages can be a useful tool for predicting plant responses to climate change in general and present a conceptual framework for using P. australis lineages to predict plant responses to global change and its consequences.

Climatic changes can drive the loss of genetic diversity in a Neotropical savanna tree species

The high rates of future climatic changes, compared with the rates reported for past changes, may hamper species adaptation to new climates or the tracking of suitable conditions, resulting in significant loss of genetic diversity. Trees are dominant species in many biomes and because they are long-lived, they may not be able to cope with ongoing climatic changes. Here, we coupled ecological niche modelling (ENM) and genetic simulations to forecast the effects of climatic changes on the genetic diversity and the structure of genetic clusters. Genetic simulations were conditioned to climatic variables and restricted to plant dispersal and establishment. We used a Neotropical savanna tree as species model that shows a preference for hot and drier climates, but with low temperature seasonality. The ENM predicts a decreasing range size along the more severe future climatic scenario. Additionally, genetic diversity and allelic richness also decrease with range retraction and climatic genetic clusters are lost for both future scenarios, which will lead genetic variability to homogenize throughout the landscape. Besides, climatic genetic clusters will spatially reconfigure on the landscape following displacements of climatic conditions. Our findings indicate that climate change effects will challenge population adaptation to new environmental conditions because of the displacement of genetic ancestry clusters from their optimal conditions.

Evolutionarily significant units of the critically endangered leaf frog Pithecopus ayeaye (Anura, Phyllomedusidae) are not effectively preserved by the Brazilian protected areas network

Protected areas (PAs) are essential for biodiversity conservation, but their coverage is considered inefficient for the preservation of all species. Many species are subdivided into evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) and the effectiveness of PAs in protecting them needs to be investigated. We evaluated the usefulness of the Brazilian PAs network in protecting ESUs of the critically endangered Pithecopus ayeaye through ongoing climate change. This species occurs in a threatened mountaintop ecosystem known as campos rupestres. We used multilocus DNA sequences to delimit geographic clusters, which were further validated as ESUs with a coalescent approach. Ecological niche modeling was used to estimate spatial changes in ESUs' potential distributions, and a gap analysis was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the Brazilian PAs network to protect P. ayeaye in the face of climate changes. We tested the niche overlap between ESUs to gain insights for potential management alternatives for the species. Pithecopus ayeaye contains at least three ESUs isolated in distinct mountain regions, and one of them is not protected by any PA. There are no climatic niche differences between the units, and only 4% of the suitable potential area of the species is protected in present and future projections. The current PAs are not effective in preserving the intraspecific diversity of P. ayeaye in its present and future range distributions. The genetic structure of P. ayeaye could represent a typical pattern in campos rupestres endemics, which should be considered for evaluating its conservation status.