Disorder, not just state of risk: meta-analysis of functioning and quality of life in people at high risk of psychosis

Negative Life Events and Problematic Internet Use as Factors Associated With Psychotic-Like Experiences in Adolescents

Objectives: Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) and problematic internet use (PIU) are common in adolescents. However, little is known about the association between PLEs and PIU among adolescents. The present study examined the associations between PLEs and PIU and negative life events among adolescents. Methods: In total, 1,678 adolescents attending high school were recruited for a cross-sectional survey. They completed self-reported assessments of PLEs using the Prodromal Questionnaire-16 (PQ-16) and measures of depression, anxiety, self-esteem, internet use, and negative life events using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES), the Korean Scale for Internet Addiction (K-scale), and the Lifetime Incidence of Traumatic Events for Children (LITE-C), including cybersexual harassment and school violence. Results: A total of 1,239 subjects (73.8%) scored at least 1 on the PQ-16. The mean total and distress PQ-16 scores were significantly higher in students who used mental health services. The total and distress prodromal questionnaire-16 (PQ-16) scores were positively correlated with the CES-D, STAI-S, STAI-T, LITE-C, and K-scale scores but negatively correlated with the RSES score. Hierarchical linear regression analysis revealed that PLEs were significantly associated with a high K-scale score and the incidence of negative life events, such as LITE-C, cybersexual harassment, and bully-victims. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate that PIU and negative life experiences were significantly associated with PLEs in adolescents. Assessment and therapeutic intervention with regard to internet use as a coping strategy for stress are needed to prevent the development of clinical psychotic symptoms.

Comorbid Personality Disorders in Individuals With an At-Risk Mental State for Psychosis: A Meta-Analytic Review

Increasing evidence shows that personality pathology is common among patients at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. Despite the important impact that this comorbidity might have on presenting high-risk psychopathology, psychological functioning, and transition to full psychotic disorders, the relationship between personality syndromes and CHR state has received relatively little empirical attention. The present meta-analytic review aimed at 1) estimating the prevalence rates of personality disorders (PDs) in CHR individuals and 2) examining the potential role of PDs in predicting transition from CHR state to a full-blown psychotic disorder. The systematic search of the empirical literature identified 17 relevant studies, including a total of 1,868 CHR individuals. Three distinct meta-analyses were performed to provide prevalence estimates of PDs in the CHR population. The first and more comprehensive meta-analysis focused on any comorbid PD (at least one diagnosis), the second one focused on schizotypal personality disorder (SPD), and the last one focused on borderline personality disorder (BPD). Moreover, a narrative review was presented to define the predictive role of personality disorders in promoting more severe outcomes in CHR patients. The findings showed that the prevalence rate of personality disorders in CHR patients was 39.4% (95% CI [26.5%-52.3%]). More specifically, 13.4% (95% CI [8.2%-18.5%]) and 11.9% (95% CI [0.73%-16.6%]) of this clinical population presented with SPD and BPD, respectively. Finally, the studies examining the effects of baseline personality diagnoses on conversion to psychotic disorders showed contradictory and insufficient results concerning the potential significant impact of SPD. Conversely, no effect of BPD was found. This meta-analytic review indicated that the CHR population includes a large subgroup with serious personality pathology, that may present with attenuated psychotic symptoms conjointly with distinct and very heterogeneous personality features. These findings support the need for improved understanding of both core psychological characteristics of CHR patients and differentiating aspects of personality that could have relevant clinical implications in promoting individualized preventive interventions and enhancing treatment effectiveness.

Psychopathology and social functioning of 42 subjects from a Danish ultra high-risk cohort

AIM

To make a thorough characterization of the co-morbidity, psychopathology and demographics in the first Danish ultra high-risk (UHR) sample.

METHOD

Forty-two UHR subjects went through comprehensive interviews assessing their psychopathology, psychiatric disorders, substance use and family history of psychiatric disorders.

RESULTS

All UHR subjects met the criteria of at least 1 axis I diagnosis in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) and met on average four diagnoses (both axis I and II), mostly within the areas of depression, anxiety and substance abuse. A total of 48% had schizotypal personality disorder and 19% had borderline personality disorder. Level of functioning was low with a mean score on the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale corresponding to "major impairment in several areas," and mean scores in the Global Functioning: Social and Role scales between "moderate impairment in social functioning" and "very serious impairment independently." Forty-seven percent were unemployed and 29% on sick leave. Fifty-five percent relied financially on public support.

CONCLUSION

As seen in previous UHR populations, Danish UHR subjects had low function socio-economically and met criteria of several psychiatric diagnoses, suggesting that they require pharmacological and non-pharmacological psychiatric treatment as well as vocational and educational guidance and support.

Psychological, social and role functioning as predictors of psychosis in an adolescent psychiatric sample

AIM

Recent evidence from psychosis risk studies of preselected samples suggests that early functional impairment may be a vulnerability marker for psychosis. We investigated whether functional impairment predicted later risk of psychotic disorder and psychiatric hospitalizations in adolescents at entry to general psychiatric services.

METHODS

A total of 154 adolescents, aged 15 to 18 years, were recruited to the study at entry to general adolescent psychiatric services in Helsinki, Finland. Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndrome and Structured Clinical Interview for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorder for DSM-IV, Clinical version interviews were used to assess psychotic-like symptoms, psychosis risk and psychiatric diagnoses. Of the adolescents, 46 met the criteria for clinical high risk status. The level of functioning was assessed with Global Functioning Social, Role and Psychological scales. The adolescents were followed for 3 to 9 (median = 5) years via a hospital discharge register. Cox regression analyses were used to examine whether baseline functioning predicted psychotic disorders and psychiatric hospitalizations when controlling for the effect of psychosis risk symptoms.

RESULTS

Impairments in social, role or psychological functioning did not predict psychotic disorders beyond risk symptoms. Impairment in psychological functioning was the only significant predictor of any psychiatric hospitalization after adjusting for positive psychosis risk symptom severity and level of social and role functioning.

CONCLUSIONS

Psychosis was predicted by psychotic-like experiences at entry to psychiatric services. No aspect of functioning predicted psychosis in adolescents, which is likely to be explained by the low incidence of psychosis transitions. Severe mental disorders as assessed by psychiatric hospitalizations were predicted by more severe symptomatology as assessed by the psychological functioning scale.

The Science of Prognosis in Psychiatry: A Review

IMPORTANCE

Prognosis is a venerable component of medical knowledge introduced by Hippocrates (460-377 BC). This educational review presents a contemporary evidence-based approach for how to incorporate clinical risk prediction models in modern psychiatry. The article is organized around key methodological themes most relevant for the science of prognosis in psychiatry. Within each theme, the article highlights key challenges and makes pragmatic recommendations to improve scientific understanding of prognosis in psychiatry.

OBSERVATIONS

The initial step to building clinical risk prediction models that can affect psychiatric care involves designing the model: preparation of the protocol and definition of the outcomes and of the statistical methods (theme 1). Further initial steps involve carefully selecting the predictors, preparing the data, and developing the model in these data. A subsequent step is the validation of the model to accurately test its generalizability (theme 2). The next consideration is that the accuracy of the clinical prediction model is affected by the incidence of the psychiatric condition under investigation (theme 3). Eventually, clinical prediction models need to be implemented in real-world clinical routine, and this is usually the most challenging step (theme 4). Advanced methods such as machine learning approaches can overcome some problems that undermine the previous steps (theme 5). The relevance of each of these themes to current clinical risk prediction modeling in psychiatry is discussed and recommendations are given.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Together, these perspectives intend to contribute to an integrative, evidence-based science of prognosis in psychiatry. By focusing on the outcome of the individuals, rather than on the disease, clinical risk prediction modeling can become the cornerstone for a scientific and personalized psychiatry.

Ultra-high-risk paradigm: lessons learnt and new directions

Within the embryonic early psychosis field in the early 1990s, the conceptualisation and definition of an at-risk or ultra-high-risk (UHR) mental state for psychosis was a breakthrough which transformed the clinical and research landscape in psychiatry. Twenty-five years later, we have a new evidence base that has illuminated the neurobiology of the onset phase of psychotic disorder, delivered Cochrane level 1 evidence showing that the onset of full-threshold sustained psychotic disorder can be at least delayed, and is paving the way to a new generation of transdiagnostic research. Here, we document the contribution of the UHR approach to understanding the underlying mechanisms of psychosis onset as well as the long-term outcomes. Particularly, we highlight that psychosis onset can be delayed in those meeting UHR criteria and that these criteria have a higher valence for subsequent psychotic disorders and some valence for persistent non-psychotic syndromes. Critiques have helped to identify some of the limitations of this paradigm, which are acknowledged. These include evidence that psychotic disorders can emerge more acutely and from other, as yet undefined, precursor states. Rather than defending, or alternatively questioning the value of, the UHR approach, we propose a broader, transdiagnostic staging model that is consistent with the pluripotent and variably comorbid trajectories for mental disorders. This approach moves beyond psychosis to capture a wider range of subthreshold symptoms and full-threshold disorders, thus enhancing prediction for the emergence and progression of a range of mental disorders, as well as providing new avenues for early intervention and prevention.

What is a "Maison des Adolescents"? A history of integrated youth health care services in France

AIM

Since 1999, the development of more than 100 "Maisons des Adolescents" (MDAs) has enabled young persons to gain access to specific care in integrated youth-friendly facilities in France. To contribute to the development and standardization of international youth-friendly health care services, this review provides insight into the French MDA facilities.

METHODS

This socio-historical analysis includes a systematic review of articles referring to the MDAs (selection through title and/or abstract), ministry reports and newspaper articles, from 1999 to 2018.

RESULTS

If the various medical programmes of MDAs depend on the priorities of local teams rather as well as on official regulations, all MDAs offer the following essential services: a "Health and Prevention Space" open daily; multidisciplinary consultations; a mobile team visiting youth hospitalized in medical units; a mobile team able to meet adolescents at their homes; an open centre for art workshops; refresher and remedial courses for school work; network meetings and parent support groups. The MDAs from the start addressed an age group (young people aged 11-21 years) rather than an illness. They thus provide primary prevention for adolescents according to the World Health Organization definition of health as "a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being." This medical and political movement was shaped by the epistemological background of its first leaders.

CONCLUSION

Although more cohort studies to evaluate their early interventions would be useful, the success of the MDA network is already widely acknowledged by users, professionals and policy makers.

Attenuated Mismatch Negativity in Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome Predicts Psychosis: Can Galantamine-Memantine Combination Prevent Psychosis?

Although first proposed in 1987, early diagnosis and intervention of psychotic disorders has only recently become a priority in the field. The interest in clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis skyrocketed after attenuated psychosis syndrome (APS) was added to the DSM-5. There is evidence that in individuals with APS, attenuated mismatch negativity (MMN: functioning of the auditory sensory memory system) is a robust biomarker that can predict transition to psychosis. The underlying pathophysiological mechanism of MMN is via the interaction of N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) and alpha-7 nicotinic acetylcholine (α-7nACh) receptors. Galantamine is an acetylcholinesterase inhibitor and a positive allosteric modulator of the α-7nACh receptors. Memantine is an NMDA receptor antagonist. Memantine has been shown to enhance MMN in people with schizophrenia. Although no studies with galantamine have measured MMN, encenicline, an α-7 nicotinic partial agonist, increased MMN in people with schizophrenia. MMN has been suggested as a potential biomarker with the galantamine-memantine combination for the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders. Hence, the galantamine-memantine combination may enhance MMN, thereby preventing CHR to psychosis. With no treatments available, randomized controlled trials are warranted with the galantamine-memantine combination to delay or prevent conversion to psychosis in individuals with CHR.

Corpus callosum shape and morphology in youth across the psychosis Spectrum

The corpus callosum is the largest white matter tract in the human brain connecting and coordinating homologous regions of the right and left hemispheres and has been strongly implicated in the pathogenesis of psychosis. We investigated corpus callosum morphology in a large community cohort of 917 individuals (aged 8-21), including 267 endorsing subsyndromal or threshold psychotic symptoms (207 on the psychosis spectrum and 60 with limited psychosis based on previously published criteria) and 650 non-psychotic volunteers. We used a highly reliable and previously published algorithm to automatically identify the midsagittal plane and to align the corpus callosum along the anterior and posterior commissures for segmentation, thereby eliminating these sources of error variance in dependent measures, which included perimeter, length, mean thickness and shape (circularity). The parcellation scheme divided the corpus callosum into 7 subregions that consisted of the rostrum, genu, rostral body, anterior midbody, posterior midbody, isthmus, and splenium. Both individuals endorsing psychotic symptoms and those with limited psychosis had significantly (p<.05) smaller area and lower thickness measures compared to healthy volunteers, but did not differ significantly from each other. Findings were relatively widespread indicating a relatively global effect not circumscribed to any particular corpus callosum subregion. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that corpus callosum abnormalities may be evident early in the course of illness and predate the onset of frank psychosis. Given that these measures can be easily obtained and are highly reliable they may assist in the identification of individuals at future risk for psychosis.

Expressed emotion as a predictor of the first psychotic episode - Results of the European prediction of psychosis study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the impact of expressed emotion (EE) on the risk of developing the first psychotic episode (FEP).

METHOD

The European Prediction of Psychosis Study (EPOS) investigated 245 patients who were at clinical high risk (CHR) of psychosis. The predictive value of EE alone and as a part of the multivariate EPOS model was evaluated.

RESULTS

"Perceived irritability", a domain of the Level of Expressed Emotion Scale (LEE), was found to be predictive for the First Psychotic Episode (FEP), even as an individual variable. Furthermore, it was selected in the multivariate EPOS prediction model, thereby replacing two of the original predictor variables. This led to an improved revised version that enabled the identification of three significantly different risk classes with a hazard rate of up to 0.911.

CONCLUSIONS

CHR subjects who perceive the most important person in their individual social environment to be limited in their stress coping skills had a higher risk of conversion to the first psychotic episode. The importance of this risk factor was further demonstrated by an improvement of risk estimation in the original EPOS predictor model. Perceiving a reference person as stress-prone and thus potentially unreliable might amplify self-experienced uncertainty and anxiety, which are often associated with the prodromal phase. Such an enforcement of stress-related processes could promote a conversion to psychosis.

Brain morphologic changes in early stages of psychosis: Implications for clinical application and early intervention

To date, a large number of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies have been conducted in schizophrenia, which generally demonstrate gray matter reduction, predominantly in the frontal and temporo-limbic regions, as well as gross brain abnormalities (e.g., a deviated sulcogyral pattern). Although the causes as well as timing and course of these findings remain elusive, these morphologic changes (especially gross brain abnormalities and medial temporal lobe atrophy) are likely present at illness onset, possibly reflecting early neurodevelopmental abnormalities. In addition, longitudinal MRI studies suggest that patients with schizophrenia and related psychoses also have progressive gray matter reduction during the transition period from prodrome to overt psychosis, as well as initial periods after psychosis onset, while such changes may become almost stable in the chronic stage. These active brain changes during the early phases seem to be relevant to the development of clinical symptoms in a region-specific manner (e.g., superior temporal gyrus atrophy and positive psychotic symptoms), but may be at least partly ameliorated by antipsychotic medication. Recently, increasing evidence from MRI findings in individuals at risk for developing psychosis has suggested that those who subsequently develop psychosis have baseline brain changes, which could be at least partly predictive of later transition into psychosis. In this article, we selectively review previous MRI findings during the course of psychosis and also refer to the possible clinical applicability of these neuroimaging research findings, especially in the diagnosis of schizophrenia and early intervention for psychosis.

All that glitters is not gold: prevalence and relevance of psychotic-like experiences in clinical sample of children and adolescents aged 8-17 years old

AIM

Recent studies have examined the prevalence of psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) and their relationship with functioning, psychopathology and distress in adult and mixed young adult and adolescent samples. There is, however, a lack of knowledge about the prevalence and clinical weight of PLEs in clinical child and adolescent (CAD) populations. Available research has primarily been conducted on community populations, and even clinical samples mostly used self-reported questionnaires. These studies also recruited participants 12 years old and older, with a consequent lack of information on children from 8 to 11 years old. We examined the prevalence of PLEs and their relationship with psychiatric diagnosis, functioning, intelligence quotient (IQ), anxiety and depressive symptoms in a clinical sample aged 8-17 years old.

METHODS

The study was conducted on a clinical sample of 46 CAD with PLEs compared to a clinical sample of 60 CAD without PLEs. The two groups were compared on global, social and role functioning, IQ, anxiety and depressive symptoms, and number of psychiatric diagnoses.

RESULTS

Global, role and social functioning were significantly lower in the CAD clinical sample with PLEs. These significant differences were maintained when the covariate IQ, number of psychiatric diagnoses or level of anxiety or depression was added. No significant age-related differences in the presence of PLEs were found.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study show that PLEs are common in a clinical sample of CAD, even those under 12 years old. The presence of PLEs should therefore be investigated and considered in planning treatment of non-psychotic psychiatric disorders in CAD.

Neuregulin 1 (NRG1) gene expression predicts functional outcomes in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis

Little is known about valid predictive markers for functional outcomes in an at-risk for psychosis population. In a cohort of 185 individuals (age: 13-35 years) at high risk (HR) and ultra-high risk (UHR), we assessed pan-NRG1 mRNA levels across good functional status (GFS) and poor functional status (PFS) at baseline, and good functional outcome (GFO) and poor functional outcome (PFO) at 12-month follow-up. NRG1 mRNA levels were significantly higher in individuals with PFO than individuals with GFO at 12-month follow-up. Our findings suggest that NRG1 might emerge as a predictive marker for functional outcomes in at-risk for psychosis population.

Childhood psychotic experiences are associated with poorer global functioning throughout adolescence and into early adulthood

BACKGROUND

Psychotic experiences (PEs) are common in childhood and have been associated with concurrent mental disorder and poorer global functioning. Little is known about the effects of childhood PEs on future functioning. We investigated the effects of childhood PEs on global functioning from childhood into early adulthood.

METHOD

Fifty-six participants from a community sample completed all three waves of the Adolescent Brain Development study (T1x¯ Age: 11.69, T2x¯ Age: 15.80 T3x¯Age: 18.80). At each phase, participants completed a clinical interview assessing for PEs, mental disorder and global function. Repeated measures models, adjusted for mental disorder and gender, were used to compare current (C-GAF) and most severe past (MSP-GAF) functioning in participants who had reported PEs in childhood and controls.

RESULTS

Participants with a history of PEs had significantly poorer C-GAF (P < 0.001) and MSP-GAF scores (P < 0.001). Poorer functioning was evident in childhood (C-GAF: P = 0.001; MSP-GAF: P < 0.001), adolescence (C-GAF: P < 0.001; MSP-GAF: P = 0.004) and early adulthood (C-GAF: P = 0.001; MSP-GAF: P = 0.076).

DISCUSSION

Children who report PEs have persistently poorer functioning through to early adulthood. The longitudinal association between childhood PEs and global functioning highlights the underlying global vulnerability in children reporting PEs, beyond what can be explained by mental disorder.

Baby or bathwater? Referrals of "non-cases" in a targeted early identification intervention for psychosis

PURPOSE

To explore the unintended impact of a targeted case identification (TCI) campaign for first episode psychosis (FEP) on people not experiencing FEP ("non-cases") with respect to referral patterns and reasons for being a non-case.

METHODS

Sources of referral, reasons for being a non-case, and subsequent referral destinations of non-cases were examined before and after a TCI.

RESULTS

Following the TCI, a greater proportion of non-cases lived outside the study catchment area. A smaller proportion was referred by the parent hospital's emergency room or had a substance-induced psychosis.

CONCLUSIONS

TCIs for FEP may have unintended effects, with implications for early case identification and early intervention services.

Clinical trajectories in the ultra-high risk for psychosis population

BACKGROUND

Traditionally, research in the ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis population has focused on the treatment of existing symptomatology and prevention of transition to psychosis. Recently, there has been an increase in focus on outcomes in individuals who do not transition to psychosis. However, there is a lack of standardised definitions of remission, recovery, recurrence and relapse in UHR, resulting in the inability to generalise and replicate outcomes.

METHOD

The aims of the current study were to develop definitions for remission, recovery, recurrence and relapse, and apply them to a UHR cohort allowing the identification of longitudinal clinical trajectories. Further stratification in broader categories of favourable and unfavourable outcomes was applied. The predictive value of various baseline factors on specific clinical trajectories was also assessed.

RESULTS

17 different trajectories were identified in a cohort of 202 individuals within a 12-month period and classified according to the suggested definitions for recovery (35.7%), remission (7.5%), any recurrence (20%), no remission (17.3%), relapse (4.0%) and transition to psychosis (15.8%). Favourable and unfavourable trajectories represented 43.2% and 57.1% respectively. Long duration of untreated symptoms and high depression scores were associated with unfavourable outcomes.

DISCUSSION

It is possible to apply clear definitions of remission, recovery, recurrence, relapse and transition to psychosis to a UHR cohort to evaluate longitudinal clinical trajectories. Acceptance and use of these definitions will help to facilitate comparisons between trials and to improve clinical clarity across the range of available therapeutic options in UHR individuals.

Efficacy and Acceptability of Interventions for Attenuated Positive Psychotic Symptoms in Individuals at Clinical High Risk of Psychosis: A Network Meta-Analysis

Background: Attenuated positive psychotic symptoms represent the defining features of the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) criteria. The effectiveness of each available treatment for reducing attenuated positive psychotic symptoms remains undetermined. This network meta-analysis (NMA) investigates the consistency and magnitude of the effects of treatments on attenuated positive psychotic symptoms in CHR-P individuals, weighting the findings for acceptability. Methods: Web of Science (MEDLINE), PsycInfo, CENTRAL and unpublished/gray literature were searched up to July 18, 2017. Randomized controlled trials in CHR-P individuals, comparing at least two interventions and reporting on attenuated positive psychotic symptoms at follow-up were included, following PRISMA guidelines. The primary outcome (efficacy) was level of attenuated positive psychotic symptoms at 6 and 12 months; effect sizes reported as standardized mean difference (SMD) and 95% CIs in mean follow-up scores between two compared interventions. The secondary outcome was treatment acceptability [reported as odds ratio (OR)]. NMAs were conducted for both primary and secondary outcomes. Treatments were cluster-ranked by surface under the cumulative ranking curve values for efficacy and acceptability. Assessments of biases, assumptions, sensitivity analyses and complementary pairwise meta-analyses for the primary outcome were also conducted. Results: Overall, 1,707 patients from 14 studies (57% male, mean age = 20) were included, representing the largest evidence synthesis of the effect of preventive treatments on attenuated positive psychotic symptoms to date. In the NMA for efficacy, ziprasidone + Needs-Based Intervention (NBI) was found to be superior to NBI (SMD = -1.10, 95% CI -2.04 to -0.15), Cognitive Behavioral Therapy-French and Morrison protocol (CBT-F) + NBI (SMD = -1.03, 95% CI -2.05 to -0.01), and risperidone + CBT-F + NBI (SMD = -1.18, 95% CI -2.29 to -0.07) at 6 months. However, these findings did not survive sensitivity analyses. For acceptability, aripiprazole + NBI was significantly more acceptable than olanzapine + NBI (OR = 3.73; 95% CI 1.01 to 13.81) at 12 months only. No further significant NMA effects were observed at 6 or 12 months. The results were not affected by inconsistency or evident small-study effects, but only two studies had an overall low risk of bias. Conclusion: On the basis of the current literature, there is no robust evidence to favor any specific intervention for improving attenuated positive psychotic symptoms in CHR-P individuals.

Beyond the "at risk mental state" concept: transitioning to transdiagnostic psychiatry

The "at risk mental state" for psychosis approach has been a catalytic, highly productive research paradigm over the last 25 years. In this paper we review that paradigm and summarize its key lessons, which include the valence of this phenotype for future psychosis outcomes, but also for comorbid, persistent or incident non-psychotic disorders; and the evidence that onset of psychotic disorder can at least be delayed in ultra high risk (UHR) patients, and that some full-threshold psychotic disorder may emerge from risk states not captured by UHR criteria. The paradigm has also illuminated risk factors and mechanisms involved in psychosis onset. However, findings from this and related paradigms indicate the need to develop new identification and diagnostic strategies. These findings include the high prevalence and impact of mental disorders in young people, the limitations of current diagnostic systems and risk identification approaches, the diffuse and unstable symptom patterns in early stages, and their pluripotent, transdiagnostic trajectories. The approach we have recently adopted has been guided by the clinical staging model and adapts the original "at risk mental state" approach to encompass a broader range of inputs and output target syndromes. This approach is supported by a number of novel modelling and prediction strategies that acknowledge and reflect the dynamic nature of psychopathology, such as dynamical systems theory, network theory, and joint modelling. Importantly, a broader transdiagnostic approach and enhancing specific prediction (profiling or increasing precision) can be achieved concurrently. A holistic strategy can be developed that applies these new prediction approaches, as well as machine learning and iterative probabilistic multimodal models, to a blend of subjective psychological data, physical disturbances (e.g., EEG measures) and biomarkers (e.g., neuroinflammation, neural network abnormalities) acquired through fine-grained sequential or longitudinal assessments. This strategy could ultimately enhance our understanding and ability to predict the onset, early course and evolution of mental ill health, further opening pathways for preventive interventions.

Lack of Diagnostic Pluripotentiality in Patients at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Specificity of Comorbidity Persistence and Search for Pluripotential Subgroups

More than 20 years after the clinical high risk syndrome for psychosis (CHR) was first articulated, it remains controversial whether the CHR syndrome predicts onset of psychosis with diagnostic specificity or predicts pluripotential diagnostic outcomes. Recently, analyses of observational studies, however, have suggested that the CHR syndrome is not pluripotential for emergent diagnostic outcomes. The present report conducted additional analyses in previously reported samples to determine (1) whether comorbid disorders were more likely to persist in CHR patients compared to a comparison group of patients who responded to CHR recruitment efforts but did not meet criteria, termed help-seeking comparison subjects (HSC); and (2) whether clinically defined pluripotential CHR subgroups could be identified. All data were derived from 2 multisite studies in which DSM-IV structured diagnostic interviews were conducted at baseline and at 6-month intervals. Across samples we observed persistence of any nonpsychotic disorder in 80/147 CHR cases (54.4%) and in 48/84 HSC cases (57.1%, n.s.). Findings with persistence of anxiety, depressive, and bipolar disorders considered separately were similar. Efforts to discover pluripotential CHR subgroups were unsuccessful. These findings add additional support to the view that the CHR syndrome is not pluripotential for predicting various diagnostic outcomes but rather is specific for predicting emergent psychosis.

Meta-analytical prognostic accuracy of the Comprehensive Assessment of at Risk Mental States (CAARMS): The need for refined prediction

Primary indicated prevention is reliant on accurate tools to predict the onset of psychosis. The gold standard assessment for detecting individuals at clinical high risk (CHR-P) for psychosis in the UK and many other countries is the Comprehensive Assessment for At Risk Mental States (CAARMS). While the prognostic accuracy of CHR-P instruments has been assessed in general, this is the first study to specifically analyse that of the CAARMS. As such, the CAARMS was used as the index test, with the reference index being psychosis onset within 2 years. Six independent studies were analysed using MIDAS (STATA 14), with a total of 1876 help-seeking subjects referred to high risk services (CHR-P+: n=892; CHR-P-: n=984). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves (SROC), quality assessment, likelihood ratios, and probability modified plots were computed, along with sensitivity analyses and meta-regressions. The current meta-analysis confirmed that the 2-year prognostic accuracy of the CAARMS is only acceptable (AUC=0.79 95% CI: 0.75-0.83) and not outstanding as previously reported. In particular, specificity was poor. Sensitivity of the CAARMS is inferior compared to the SIPS, while specificity is comparably low. However, due to the difficulties in performing these types of studies, power in this meta-analysis was low. These results indicate that refining and improving the prognostic accuracy of the CAARMS should be the mainstream area of research for the next era. Avenues of prediction improvement are critically discussed and presented to better benefit patients and improve outcomes of first episode psychosis.

What causes psychosis? An umbrella review of risk and protective factors

Psychosis is a heterogeneous psychiatric condition for which a multitude of risk and protective factors have been suggested. This umbrella review aimed to classify the strength of evidence for the associations between each factor and psychotic disorders whilst controlling for several biases. The Web of Knowledge database was searched to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies which examined associations between socio-demographic, parental, perinatal, later factors or antecedents and psychotic disorders, and which included a comparison group of healthy controls, published from 1965 to January 31, 2017. The literature search and data extraction followed PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines. The association between each factor and ICD or DSM diagnoses of non-organic psychotic disorders was graded into convincing, highly suggestive, suggestive, weak, or non-significant according to a standardized classification based on: number of psychotic cases, random-effects p value, largest study 95% confidence interval, heterogeneity between studies, 95% prediction interval, small study effect, and excess significance bias. In order to assess evidence for temporality of association, we also conducted sensitivity analyses restricted to data from prospective studies. Fifty-five meta-analyses or systematic reviews were included in the umbrella review, corresponding to 683 individual studies and 170 putative risk or protective factors for psychotic disorders. Only the ultra-high-risk state for psychosis (odds ratio, OR=9.32, 95% CI: 4.91-17.72) and Black-Caribbean ethnicity in England (OR=4.87, 95% CI: 3.96-6.00) showed convincing evidence of association. Six factors were highly suggestive (ethnic minority in low ethnic density area, second generation immigrants, trait anhedonia, premorbid IQ, minor physical anomalies, and olfactory identification ability), and nine were suggestive (urbanicity, ethnic minority in high ethnic density area, first generation immigrants, North-African immigrants in Europe, winter/spring season of birth in Northern hemisphere, childhood social withdrawal, childhood trauma, Toxoplasma gondii IgG, and non-right handedness). When only prospective studies were considered, the evidence was convincing for ultra-high-risk state and suggestive for urbanicity only. In summary, this umbrella review found several factors to be associated with psychotic disorders with different levels of evidence. These risk or protective factors represent a starting point for further etiopathological research and for the improvement of the prediction of psychosis.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance of DSM-5 Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in Services for Individuals at Ultra High Risk for Psychosis

BACKGROUND

The diagnostic and prognostic significance of the DSM-5-defined Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome (DSM-5-APS) in individuals undergoing an ultra high risk (UHR) clinical assessment for suspicion of psychosis risk is unknown.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study including all consecutive help-seeking individuals undergoing both a DSM-5-APS and a Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States (CAARMS 12/2006) assessment for psychosis risk at the Outreach and Support in South London (OASIS) UHR service (March 2013-April 2014). The diagnostic significance of DSM-5-APS was assessed with percent overall agreement, prevalence bias adjusted kappa, Bowker's test, Stuart-Maxwell test, residual analysis; the prognostic significance with Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier failure function, time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) and net benefits analysis. The impact of specific revisions of the DSM-5-APS was further tested.

RESULT

In 203 help-seeking individuals undergoing UHR assessment, the agreement between the DSM-5-APS and the CAARMS 12/2006 was only moderate (kappa 0.59). Among 142 nonpsychotic cases, those meeting DSM-5-APS criteria had a 5-fold probability (HR = 5.379) of developing psychosis compared to those not meeting DSM-5-APS criteria, with a 21-month cumulative risk of psychosis of 28.17% vs 6.49%, respectively. The DSM-5-APS prognostic accuracy was acceptable (AUC 0.76 at 24 months) and similar to the CAARMS 12/2006. The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful to guide the provision of indicated interventions within a 7%-35% (2-year) range of psychosis risk. The removal of the criterion E or C of the DSM-5-APS may improve its prognostic performance and transdiagnostic value.

CONCLUSIONS

The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful in individuals accessing clinical services for psychosis prevention.

Quality of life in individuals with attenuated psychotic symptoms: Possible role of anxiety, depressive symptoms, and socio-cognitive impairments

Individuals with Clinical High-Risk state for Psychosis (CHR-P) are reported to exhibit impaired quality of life (QOL) similar to that observed in schizophrenia, but its determinants remain unclear. We investigated the QOL of 33 subjects with CHR-P, 45 patients with schizophrenia, and 63 healthy subjects using the Quality of Life Scale (QLS). The CHR-P and schizophrenia groups were administered the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia (BACS), the Schizophrenia Cognition Rating Scale (SCoRS), and the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale (SOFAS) for socio-cognitive functions; and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory for clinical symptoms. The CHR-P group was also assessed using the Beck Depression Inventory. The CHR-P and schizophrenia groups had a significantly lower QLS score to the same degree compared with controls, which was predominantly associated with the SOFAS, SCoRS, and PANSS negative/general scores. For the CHR-P, the severity of anxiety and depressive symptoms was also correlated with a lower QLS score. Regression analyses demonstrated that the QLS score was predicted by SOFAS (for both groups) and SCoRS (for CHR-P) scores. Our findings suggest the importance of addressing socio-cognitive dysfunctions as well as anxiety and depressive symptoms for better QOL in CHR-P.

Improving outcomes of first-episode psychosis: an overview

Outcomes of psychotic disorders are associated with high personal, familiar, societal and clinical burden. There is thus an urgent clinical and societal need for improving those outcomes. Recent advances in research knowledge have opened new opportunities for ameliorating outcomes of psychosis during its early clinical stages. This paper critically reviews these opportunities, summarizing the state-of-the-art knowledge and focusing on recent discoveries and future avenues for first episode research and clinical interventions. Candidate targets for primary universal prevention of psychosis at the population level are discussed. Potentials offered by primary selective prevention in asymptomatic subgroups (stage 0) are presented. Achievements of primary selected prevention in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (stage 1) are summarized, along with challenges and limitations of its implementation in clinical practice. Early intervention and secondary prevention strategies at the time of a first episode of psychosis (stage 2) are critically discussed, with a particular focus on minimizing the duration of untreated psychosis, improving treatment response, increasing patients' satisfaction with treatment, reducing illicit substance abuse and preventing relapses. Early intervention and tertiary prevention strategies at the time of an incomplete recovery (stage 3) are further discussed, in particular with respect to addressing treatment resistance, improving well-being and social skills with reduction of burden on the family, treatment of comorbid substance use, and prevention of multiple relapses and disease progression. In conclusion, to improve outcomes of a complex, heterogeneous syndrome such as psychosis, it is necessary to globally adopt complex models integrating a clinical staging framework and coordinated specialty care programmes that offer pre-emptive interventions to high-risk groups identified across the early stages of the disorder. Only a systematic implementation of these models of care in the national health care systems will render these strategies accessible to the 23 million people worldwide suffering from the most severe psychiatric disorders.

Psychosis risk research versus daily prognosis uncertainties: A qualitative study of French youth psychiatrists' attitudes toward predictive practices

Background

Over the last twenty years, predicting psychosis has become a priority of both research and policies. Those approaches include the use of the At Risk Mental State category (ARMS) and of standardized predictive tools. In comparison to most developed countries, early interventions programs are only little developed in France. However, cases of young patients presenting unclear symptoms that might be a beginning psychosis or might as well reflect some adolescent unease are commonplace in psychiatry. Yet little is known about the routine practices of youth psychiatrists regarding psychosis risk management. Do they anticipate mental disorders?

Method

The Grounded Theory is an agreed-upon qualitative method in social science field that links subjective experiences (individual narratives) to social processes (professional norms and mental health policies). 12 French youth psychiatrists were interviewed about psychosis early management and their daily prognosis practices with teenagers.

Results

If all participants were aware of early intervention programs, most of them did not make use of standardized scales. Psychiatrists’ reluctance toward a psychosis risk standardized assessment was shaped by three difficulties: first the gap between theoretical knowledge and practice; second their impossibility to make reliable prognoses; and third, the many uncertainties surrounding medical judgment, adolescence and the nature of psychosis. Nevertheless, they provided their young patients with multiple months follow up without disclosing any risk category.

Conclusion

Anticipating a psychosis onset remains a highly uncertain task for psychiatrists. In France, psychiatrists’ inconspicuous risk management might be supported by the universal costs coverage that is not conditional on a diagnosis disclosure.

The association between psychotic experiences and disability: results from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

OBJECTIVE

While psychotic experiences (PEs) are known to be associated with a range of mental and general medical disorders, little is known about the association between PEs and measures of disability. We aimed to investigate this question using the World Mental Health surveys.

METHOD

Lifetime occurrences of six types of PEs were assessed along with 21 mental disorders and 14 general medical conditions. Disability was assessed with a modified version of the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were used to investigate the association between PEs and high disability scores (top quartile) with various adjustments.

RESULTS

Respondents with PEs were more likely to have top quartile scores on global disability than respondents without PEs (19.1% vs. 7.5%; χ²  = 190.1, P < 0.001) as well as greater likelihood of cognitive, social, and role impairment. Relationships persisted in each adjusted model. A significant dose-response relationship was also found for the PE type measures with most of these outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Psychotic experiences are associated with disability measures with a dose-response relationship. These results are consistent with the view that PEs are associated with disability regardless of the presence of comorbid mental or general medical disorders.

Formal thought disorder in people at ultra-high risk of psychosis

BACKGROUND

Formal thought disorder is a cardinal feature of psychosis. However, the extent to which formal thought disorder is evident in ultra-high-risk individuals and whether it is linked to the progression to psychosis remains unclear.

AIMS

Examine the severity of formal thought disorder in ultra-high-risk participants and its association with future psychosis.

METHOD

The Thought and Language Index (TLI) was used to assess 24 ultra-high-risk participants, 16 people with first-episode psychosis and 13 healthy controls. Ultra-high-risk individuals were followed up for a mean duration of 7 years (s.d.=1.5) to determine the relationship between formal thought disorder at baseline and transition to psychosis.

RESULTS

TLI scores were significantly greater in the ultra-high-risk group compared with the healthy control group (effect size (ES)=1.2), but lower than in people with first-episode psychosis (ES=0.8). Total and negative TLI scores were higher in ultra-high-risk individuals who developed psychosis, but this was not significant. Combining negative TLI scores with attenuated psychotic symptoms and basic symptoms predicted transition to psychosis (P=0.04; ES=1.04).

CONCLUSIONS

TLI is beneficial in evaluating formal thought disorder in ultra-high-risk participants, and complements existing instruments for the evaluation of psychopathology in this group.

DECLARATION OF INTERESTS

None.

COPYRIGHT AND USAGE

© The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Non-Commercial, No Derivatives (CC BY-NC-ND) license.

Prediction of functional outcome in young patients with a recent-onset psychiatric disorder: Beyond the traditional diagnostic classification system

A critical research goal is to identify modifiable risk factors leading to functional disabilities in young psychiatric patients. The authors developed a multidimensional trans-diagnostic predictive model of functional outcome in patients with the recent-onset of a psychiatric illness. Baseline clinical, psychosis-risk status, cognitive, neurological-soft-signs measures, and dopamine-related-gene polymorphisms (DRD1-rs4532, COMT-rs165599, and DRD4-rs1800955) were collected in 138 young non-psychotic outpatients. 116 individuals underwent follow-up (mean=2.2years, SD=0.9) examination. A binary logistic model was used to predict low-functioning status at follow-up as defined by a score lower than 65 in the social occupational functioning assessment scale. A total of 54% of patients experiences low functioning at follow-up. Attention, Avolition, and Motor-Coordination subscale were significant predictors of low-functioning with an accuracy of 79.7%. A non-significant trend was found for a dopamine-related-gene polymorphism (DRD1-rs4532). The model was independent of psychotic-risk status, DSM-diagnosis, and psychotic conversion. A trans-diagnostic approach taking into account specific neurocognitive, clinical, and neurological information has the potential to identify those individuals with low-functioning independent of DSM diagnosis or the level of psychosis-risk. Specific early interventions targeting modifiable risk factors and emphasize functional recovery in young psychiatric samples, independent of DSM-diagnosis and psychosis-risk, are essential.

Prediction of conversion to psychosis in individuals with an at-risk mental state: a brief update on recent developments

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

So far, only little more than one-third of individuals classified as being at-risk for psychosis have been shown to actually convert to frank psychosis during follow-up. There have therefore been enormous efforts to improve the accuracy of predicting this transition. We reviewed the most recent studies in the field with the aim to clarify whether accuracy of prediction has been improved by the different research endeavors and what could be done to further improve it, and/or what alternative goals research should pursue.

RECENT FINDINGS

A total of 56 studies published between May 2015 and December 2016 were included, of which eight were meta-analyses. New meta-analytical evidence confirms that established instruments for checking clinical risk criteria have an excellent clinical utility in individuals referred to high-risk services. Within a such identified group of ultra-high-risk (UHR) individuals, especially Brief Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms and Attenuated Psychotic Symptoms seem to predict transition. Further assessments should be performed within the UHR individuals, as risk of transition seems particularly high in those with an even higher severity of certain symptoms such as suspiciousness or anhedonia, in those with lower global or social functioning, poor neurocognitive performance or cannabis abuse. Also, electroencephalography, neuroimaging and blood biomarkers might contribute to improving individual prediction. The most promising approach certainly is a staged multidomain assessment. Risk calculators to integrate all data for an individualized prediction are being developed.

SUMMARY

Prediction of psychosis is already possible with an excellent prognostic performance based on clinical assessments. Recent studies show that this accuracy can be further improved by using multidomain approaches and modern statistics for individualized prediction. The challenge now is the translation into the clinic with a broad clinical implementation.

Neuroanatomical Predictors of Functional Outcome in Individuals at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis

Most individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis do not transition to frank illness. Nevertheless, many have poor clinical outcomes and impaired psychosocial functioning. This study used voxel-based morphometry to investigate if baseline grey and white matter brain densities at identification as UHR were associated with functional outcome at medium- to long-term follow-up. Participants were help-seeking UHR individuals (n = 109, 54M:55F) who underwent magnetic resonance imaging at baseline; functional outcome was assessed an average of 9.2 years later. Primary analysis showed that lower baseline grey matter density, but not white matter density, in bilateral frontal and limbic areas, and left cerebellar declive were associated with poorer functional outcome (Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale [SOFAS]). These findings were independent of transition to psychosis or persistence of the at-risk mental state. Similar regions were significantly associated with lower self-reported levels of social functioning and increased negative symptoms at follow-up. Exploratory analyses showed that lower baseline grey matter densities in middle and inferior frontal gyri were significantly associated with decline in Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) score over follow-up. There was no association between baseline grey matter density and IQ or positive symptoms at follow-up. The current findings provide novel evidence that those with the poorest functional outcomes have the lowest grey matter densities at identification as UHR, regardless of transition status or persistence of the at-risk mental state. Replication and validation of these findings may allow for early identification of poor functional outcome and targeted interventions.

Using neuroimaging to help predict the onset of psychosis

The aim of this review is to assess the potential for neuroimaging measures to facilitate prediction of the onset of psychosis. Research in this field has mainly involved people at 'ultra-high risk' (UHR) of psychosis, who have a very high risk of developing a psychotic disorder within a few years of presentation to mental health services. The review details the key findings and developments in this area to date and examines the methodological and logistical challenges associated with making predictions in an individual subject in a clinical setting.

Utility of risk-status for predicting psychosis and related outcomes: evaluation of a 10-year cohort of presenters to a specialised early psychosis community mental health service

Psychosis transition rates by those at clinical high risk have been highly variable and few studies have compared service presenters across the full psychosis risk spectrum with respect to medium-term outcomes. A 10-year service cohort was examined (N=1997), comprising all presentations to an early psychosis service for young people experiencing a recent psychotic episode or at increased risk ('Psychological Assistance Service', Newcastle, Australia). Baseline and longitudinal service data (median follow-up =7.3 years) were used in a series of logistic regressions to examine relationships between psychosis risk-status and subsequent illness episodes, hospital admissions, and community contacts. Six baseline groups were identified: existing (14.5%) and recent psychosis (19.8%); ultra-high risk (UHR, 9.6%); non-psychotic disorders without (35.4%, the reference group) and with psychiatric admissions (8.3%); and incomplete assessments (12.5%). High comorbidity levels were reported by the cohort (psychosocial problems, 61.1%; depression, 54.1%; substance misuse, 40.7%). UHR clients experienced similar psychosis transition rates to the reference group (17.3% vs. 14.6%; 8.9% vs. 9.1% within 2-years) and comparable rates of subsequent non-psychosis outcomes. A 25.9% conversion rate from early psychosis to schizophrenia was detected. However, among transitioning individuals, UHR clients faired relatively better, particularly with respect to changes in comorbidity and mental health contacts. Interventions tailored to current problems, recovery and psychological strengthening may be more appropriate than those based on estimated psychosis risk, which currently lacks clinical utility.

Deconstructing Vulnerability for Psychosis: Meta-Analysis of Environmental Risk Factors for Psychosis in Subjects at Ultra High-Risk

Background

Subjects at ultra high-risk (UHR) for psychosis have an enhanced vulnerability to develop the disorder but the risk factors accounting for this accrued risk are undetermined.

Method

Systematic review of associations between genetic or environmental risk factors for psychosis that are widely established in the literature and UHR state, based on comparisons to controls.

Results

Forty-four studies encompassing 170 independent datasets and 54 risk factors were included. There were no studies on association between genetic or epigenetic risk factors and the UHR state that met the inclusion criteria. UHR subjects were more likely to show obstetric complications, tobacco use, physical inactivity, childhood trauma/emotional abuse/physical neglect, high perceived stress, childhood and adolescent low functioning, affective comorbidities, male gender, single status, unemployment and low educational level as compared to controls.

Conclusions

The increased vulnerability of UHR subjects can be related to environmental risk factors like childhood trauma, adverse life events and affective dysfunction. The role of genetic and epigenetic risk factors awaits clarification.

Long-term validity of the At Risk Mental State (ARMS) for predicting psychotic and non-psychotic mental disorders

BACKGROUND

The long-term clinical validity of the At Risk Mental State (ARMS) for the prediction of non-psychotic mental disorders is unknown.

METHODS

Clinical register-based cohort study including all non-psychotic individuals assessed by the Outreach And Support in South London (OASIS) service (2002-2015). The primary outcome was risk of developing any mental disorder (psychotic or non-psychotic). Analyses included Cox proportional hazard models, Kaplan-Meier survival/failure function and C statistics.

RESULTS

A total of 710 subjects were included. A total of 411 subjects were at risk (ARMS+) and 299 not at risk (ARMS-). Relative to ARMS-, the ARMS+ was associated with an increased risk (HR=4.825) of developing psychotic disorders, and a reduced risk (HR=0.545) of developing non-psychotic disorders (mainly personality disorders). At 6-year, the ARMS designation retained high sensitivity (0.873) but only modest specificity (0.456) for the prediction of psychosis onset (AUC 0.68). The brief and limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (BLIPS) subgroup had a higher risk of developing psychosis, and a lower risk of developing non-psychotic disorders as compared to the attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) subgroup (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In the long-term, the ARMS specifically predicts the onset of psychotic disorders, with modest accuracy, but not of non-psychotic disorders. Individuals meeting BLIPS criteria have distinct clinical outcomes.

SIGNIFICANT OUTCOMES

In the long-term, the ARMS designation is still significantly associated with an increased risk of developing psychotic disorders but its prognostic accuracy is only modest. There is no evidence that the ARMS is associated with an increased risk of developing non-psychotic mental disorders. The BLIPS subgroup at lower risk of developing non-psychotic disorders compared to the APS subgroup.

LIMITATIONS

While incident diagnoses employed in this study are high in ecological validity they have not been subjected to formal validation with research-based criteria.

Persistence or recurrence of non-psychotic comorbid mental disorders associated with 6-year poor functional outcomes in patients at ultra high risk for psychosis

BACKGROUND

Patients at ultra-high risk for psychosis (UHR) are a highly heterogeneous group in terms of clinical and functional outcomes. Several non-psychotic mental disorders co-occur together with the UHR state. Little is known about the impact of non-psychotic comorbid mental disorders on clinical and functional outcomes of UHR patients.

METHODS

The sample included 154 UHR help-seeking patients (identified with the CAARMS, comprehensive assessment of the at-risk mental state), evaluated at baseline on the Ham-D, Ham-A (Hamilton depression/anxiety rating scale), and PANSS (positive and negative syndrome scale). 74 patients completed the 6-year follow-up assessment (mean=6.19, SD=1.87). Comorbid disorders at follow-up were assessed with the SCID I and II. Global functioning was rated on the global assessment of functioning (GAF) scale.

RESULTS

In the present sample, 6-year risk of psychosis transition was 28.4%. Among non-transitioned UHR patients, 28.3% reported attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) and 45.3% remained functionally impaired at follow-up (GAF<60). 56.8% patients were affected by at least one comorbid disorder at follow-up. Among UHR patients who presented with some comorbid disorder at baseline, 61.5% had persistent or recurrent course. Incident comorbid disorders emerged in 45.4% of baseline UHR patients. The persistence or recurrence of non-psychotic comorbid mental disorders was associated with poorer global functional outcomes at follow-up.

LIMITATIONS

A substantial proportion of the initial sample was not available for follow-up interviews and some groups in the analyses had small sample size. Predictors of longitudinal outcomes were not explored.

CONCLUSIONS

Among UHR patients, persistence or recurrence of non-psychotic comorbid mental disorders, mostly affective disorders, is associated with 6-year poor functional outcomes.

Classifying risk status of non-clinical adolescents using psychometric indicators for psychosis spectrum disorders

This study is an attempt to evaluate extant psychometric indicators using latent profile analysis for classifying community-derived individuals based on a set of clinical, behavioural, and personality traits considered risk markers for psychosis spectrum disorders. The present investigation included four hundred and forty-nine high-school students between the ages of 12 and 19. We used the following to assess risk: the Prodromal Questionnaire-Brief (PQ-B), Oviedo Schizotypy Assessment Questionnaire (ESQUIZO-Q), Anticipatory and Consummatory Interpersonal Pleasure Scale-Adolescent version (ACIPS-A), and General Health Questionnaire 12 (GHQ-12). Using Latent profile analysis six latent classes (LC) were identified: participants in class 1 (LC1) displayed little or no symptoms and accounted for 38.53% of the sample; class 2 (LC2), who accounted for 28.06%, also produced low mean scores across most measures though they expressed somewhat higher levels of subjective distress; LC3, a positive schizotypy group (10.24%); LC4 (13.36%), a psychosis high-risk group; LC5, a high positive and negative schizotypy group (4.45%); and LC6, a very high distress, severe clinical high-risk group, comprised 5.34% of the sample. The current research indicates that different latent classes of early individuals at risk can be empirically defined in adolescent community samples using psychometric indicators for psychosis spectrum disorders. These findings may have implications for early detection and prevention strategies in psychosis spectrum disorders.

Community-oriented family-based intervention superior to standard treatment in improving depression, hopelessness and functioning among adolescents with any psychosis-risk symptoms

The aim of the present study was to compare change in functioning, affective symptoms and level of psychosis-risk symptoms in symptomatic adolescents who were treated either in an early intervention programme based on a need-adapted Family- and Community-orientated integrative Treatment Model (FCTM) or in standard adolescent psychiatric treatment (Treatment As Usual, TAU). 28 pairs were matched by length of follow-up, gender, age, and baseline functioning. At one year after the start of treatment, the matched groups were compared on change in functioning (GAF-M), five psychosis-risk dimensions of the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS), and self-reported anxiety, depression, and hopelessness symptoms (BAI, BDI-II, BHS). FCTM was more effective in improving functioning (20% vs. 6% improvement on GAF-M), as well as self-reported depression (53% vs. 14% improvement on BDI-II) and hopelessness (41% vs. 3% improvement on BHS). However, for psychosis-risk symptoms and anxiety symptoms, effectiveness differences between treatment models did not reach statistical significance. To conclude, in the present study, we found greater improvement in functioning and self-reported depression and hopelessness among adolescents who received a need-adapted Family- and Community-orientated integrative Treatment than among those who were treated in standard adolescent psychiatry.

Towards a Standard Psychometric Diagnostic Interview for Subjects at Ultra High Risk of Psychosis: CAARMS versus SIPS

Background. Several psychometric instruments are available for the diagnostic interview of subjects at ultra high risk (UHR) of psychosis. Their diagnostic comparability is unknown. Methods. All referrals to the OASIS (London) or CAMEO (Cambridgeshire) UHR services from May 13 to Dec 14 were interviewed for a UHR state using both the CAARMS 12/2006 and the SIPS 5.0. Percent overall agreement, kappa, the McNemar-Bowker χ (2) test, equipercentile methods, and residual analyses were used to investigate diagnostic outcomes and symptoms severity or frequency. A conversion algorithm (CONVERT) was validated in an independent UHR sample from the Seoul Youth Clinic (Seoul). Results. There was overall substantial CAARMS-versus-SIPS agreement in the identification of UHR subjects (n = 212, percent overall agreement = 86%; kappa = 0.781, 95% CI from 0.684 to 0.878; McNemar-Bowker test = 0.069), with the exception of the brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (BLIPS) subgroup. Equipercentile-linking table linked symptoms severity and frequency across the CAARMS and SIPS. The conversion algorithm was validated in 93 UHR subjects, showing excellent diagnostic accuracy (CAARMS to SIPS: ROC area 0.929; SIPS to CAARMS: ROC area 0.903). Conclusions. This study provides initial comparability data between CAARMS and SIPS and will inform ongoing multicentre studies and clinical guidelines for the UHR psychometric diagnostic interview.

At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR-). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR- subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan's nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR-: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan's nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide.

Why are help-seeking subjects at ultra-high risk for psychosis help-seeking?

In addition to attenuated psychotic symptoms, individuals at high clinical risk of developing psychosis display a wide range of psychopathological features. Some of these may be subjectively perceived as more troubling than others and may therefore be more likely to trigger help-seeking behavior. We aimed at investigating the nature and prevalence of symptoms subjectively considered most distressing by high-risk individuals at the time of their presentation to early recognition services and to determine their impact on baseline and longitudinal functional and clinical outcomes. The clinical records of 221 clients meeting ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria and receiving care at a specialized early intervention service ("Outreach and Support in South London") between 2001 and 2011 were reviewed. Main outcome measures were reason to seek help as subjectively reported by the clients, comorbid DSM-IV SCID diagnoses, transition to psychosis, psychosocial functioning at baseline and after a median follow-up period of 4.5 years. Affective symptoms, i.e., depression and/or anxiety, were the most commonly reported subjective reasons to seek help (47.1%). Sub-threshold psychotic symptoms were reported by 39.8%. There was no significant association between subjective complaints at presentation and transition to psychosis. However, the group reporting affective symptoms as their main subjective reason to seek help at baseline had a significantly poorer longitudinal outcome in psychosocial functioning relative to the group reporting sub-threshold psychotic symptoms. Assessment of subjective complaints in UHR individuals at initial presentation may help to identify predictors of future functional outcome and tailor treatments accordingly.

Predictors of functional outcome in individuals at high clinical risk for psychosis at six years follow-up

BACKGROUND

The long-term functional status of subjects at ultra high risk for psychosis (HR) is relatively under investigated. This study explores baseline predictors of long-term functional outcome in HR subjects who did not convert to psychosis during a 6 years follow-up period.

METHODS

A total of 154 HR were followed up for an average of 6 years. The primary outcome variable was global assessment of functioning at the last follow-up visit as assessed with the Global Assessment of Functioning tool. A multinomial logistic regression was performed to identify potential predictors of functional outcome.

RESULTS

Baseline and follow-up data on functioning was available for 92 HR. Twenty-four (43%) individuals who did not convert to psychosis reported poor functioning at follow-up. Baseline scores in the GAF (Exp(b) = 0.857; 95% CIs: 0.75/0.97), employment status (Exp(b) = 0.029; 95% CIs: 0.00/0.268), and CAARMS total scores (Exp(b) = 1.976; 95% CIs: 1.00/1.14) predicted functional outcome in HR subjects at 6 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the preventive treatments received, many individuals who did not convert to full-blown psychosis in the longer term do not functionally remit. These individuals are lower functioning, unemployed and have higher symptom loading at the time of their presentation to the prodromal clinic. Our study suggests the need for innovative treatments targeting long term functional status beyond the prevention of psychosis onset in the HR population.