Assessing the relationship between vector indices and dengue transmission: a systematic review of the evidence

Peridomestic Aedes malayensis and Aedes albopictus are capable vectors of arboviruses in cities

BACKGROUND

Dengue and chikungunya are global re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases. In Singapore, sustained vector control coupled with household improvements reduced domestic mosquito populations for the past 45 years, particularly the primary vector Aedes aegypti. However, while disease incidence was low for the first 30 years following vector control implementation, outbreaks have re-emerged in the past 15 years. Epidemiological observations point to the importance of peridomestic infection in areas not targeted by control programs. We investigated the role of vectors in peri-domestic areas.

METHODS

We carried out entomological surveys to identify the Aedes species present in vegetated sites in highly populated areas and determine whether mosquitoes were present in open-air areas frequented by people. We compared vector competence of Aedes albopictus and Aedes malayensis with Ae. aegypti after oral infection with sympatric dengue serotype 2 and chikungunya viruses. Mosquito saliva was tested for the presence of infectious virus particles as a surrogate for transmission following oral infection.

RESULTS

We identified Aedes albopictus and Aedes malayensis throughout Singapore and quantified their presence in forested and opened grassy areas. Both Ae. albopictus and Ae. malayensis can occupy sylvatic niches and were highly susceptible to both arboviruses. A majority of saliva of infected Ae. malayensis contained infectious particles for both viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study reveals the prevalence of competent vectors in peri-domestic areas, including Ae. malayensis for which we established the vector status. Epidemics can be driven by infection foci, which are epidemiologically enhanced in the context of low herd immunity, selective pressure on arbovirus transmission and the presence of infectious asymptomatic persons, all these conditions being present in Singapore. Learning from Singapore's vector control success that reduced domestic vector populations, but has not sustainably reduced arboviral incidence, we suggest including peri-domestic vectors in the scope of vector management.

Imported chikungunya cases in an area newly colonised by Aedes albopictus: mathematical assessment of the best public health strategy

We aimed to identify the optimal strategy that should be used by public health authorities against transmission of chikungunya virus in mainland France. The theoretical model we developed, which mimics the current surveillance system, predicted that without vector control (VC), the probability of local transmission after introduction of viraemic patients was around 2%, and the number of autochthonous cases between five and 15 persons per hectare, depending on the number of imported cases. Compared with this baseline, we considered different strategies (VC after clinical suspicion of a case or after laboratory confirmation, for imported or autochthonous cases): Awaiting laboratory confirmation for suspected imported cases to implement VC had no significant impact on the epidemiological outcomes analysed, mainly because of the delay before entering into the surveillance system. However, waiting for laboratory confirmation of autochthonous cases before implementing VC resulted in more frequent outbreaks. After analysing the economic cost of such strategies, our study suggested implementing VC immediately after the notification of a suspected autochthonous case as the most efficient strategy in settings where local transmission has been proven. Nevertheless, we identified that decreasing reporting time for imported cases should remain a priority.

The relationship between entomological indicators of Aedes aegypti abundance and dengue virus infection

Routine entomological monitoring data are used to quantify the abundance of Ae. aegypti. The public health utility of these indicators is based on the assumption that greater mosquito abundance increases the risk of human DENV transmission, and therefore reducing exposure to the vector decreases incidence of infection. Entomological survey data from two longitudinal cohort studies in Iquitos, Peru, linked with 8,153 paired serological samples taken approximately six months apart were analyzed. Indicators of Ae. aegypti density were calculated from cross-sectional and longitudinal entomological data collected over a 12-month period for larval, pupal and adult Ae. aegypti. Log binomial models were used to estimate risk ratios (RR) to measure the association between Ae. aegypti abundance and the six-month risk of DENV seroconversion. RRs estimated using cross-sectional entomological data were compared to RRs estimated using longitudinal data. Higher cross-sectional Ae. aegypti densities were not associated with an increased risk of DENV seroconversion. Use of longitudinal entomological data resulted in RRs ranging from 1.01 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.02) to 1.30 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.46) for adult stage density estimates and RRs ranging from 1.21 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.37) to 1.75 (95% CI: 1.23, 2.5) for categorical immature indices. Ae. aegypti densities calculated from longitudinal entomological data were associated with DENV seroconversion, whereas those measured cross-sectionally were not. Ae. aegypti indicators calculated from cross-sectional surveillance, as is common practice, have limited public health utility in detecting areas or populations at high risk of DENV infection.

Field Comparisons of the Gravid Aedes Trap (GAT) and BG-Sentinel Trap for Monitoring Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations and Notes on Indoor GAT Collections in Vietnam

We report on the use of the Gravid Aedes Trap (GAT) as a surveillance device for Aedes albopictus (Skuse) relative to the BG-Sentinel (BGS) trap in field studies conducted in Trenton, NJ, and on Hammond Island, Queensland, Australia. A parallel study conducted in Nha Trang, Vietnam, assessed the use of the GAT as an indoor surveillance device as well as the use of canola oil as a noninsecticide killing agent. In Trenton and Hammond Island, the GAT collected fewer male (0.40 ± 0.12 and 0.43 ± 0.30, respectively) and female (3.05 ± 0.67 and 2.7 ± 2.3, respectively) Ae. albopictus than the BGS trap (males: 3.54 ± 1.26 and 3.75 ± 0.83; females: 4.66 ± 1.18 and 3.9 ± 0.23) over their respective sampling periods (i.e., 24 h for the BGS and 1 wk for the GAT). Despite differences in capture rates, the percentage of traps positive for female Ae. albopictus was similar between the BGS and GAT (Trenton: 60.1 ± 6.3% and 64.4 ± 4.1%; Hammond: 87.5 ± 6.9% and 80.0 ± 8.2%). In Nha Trang, the GAT was equally effective indoors and outdoors with (10 g hay or 3 g fish food) and without (water or empty) infusion. Additionally, no significant decrease in collections was observed between GATs set with canola oil or long-lasting insecticidal net. In summary, both traps were successful in monitoring female Ae. albopictus over their respective trapping intervals, but would be best used to complement each other to monitor both sexes and all physiological stages of female Ae. albopictus. However, the versatility and low-cost of the GAT makes it an attractive alternative to the more expensive BGS trap.

Unusual pattern of chikungunya virus epidemic in the Americas, the Panamanian experience

Background

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) typically causes explosive epidemics of fever, rash and polyarthralgia after its introduction into naïve populations. Since its introduction in Panama in May of 2014, few autochthonous cases have been reported; most of them were found within limited outbreaks in Panama City in 2014 and Puerto Obaldia town, near the Caribbean border with Colombia in 2015. In order to confirm that Panama had few CHIKV cases compared with neighboring countries, we perform an epidemiological analysis of chikungunya cases reported from May 2014 to July 2015. Moreover, to understand this paucity of confirmed CHIKV cases, a vectorial analysis in the counties where these cases were reported was performed.

Methods

Chikungunya cases were identified at medical centers and notified to health authorities. Sera samples were analyzed at Gorgas Memorial Institute for viral RNA and CHIKV-specific antibody detection.

Results

A total of 413 suspected cases of CHIKV infections were reported, with incidence rates of 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2014 and 2015, respectively. During this period, 38.6% of CHIKV cases were autochthonous with rash and polyarthralgia as predominant symptoms. CHIKV and DENV incidence ratios were 1:306 and 1:34, respectively. A phylogenetic analysis of E1/E2 genomic segment indicates that the outbreak strains belong to the Asian genotype and cluster together with CHIKV isolates from other American countries during the same period. Statistical analysis of the National Vector Control program at the district level shows low and medium vector infestation level for most of the counties with CHIKV cases. This index was lower than for neighboring countries.

Conclusions

Previous training of clinical, laboratory and vector workers allowed a good caption and detection of the chikungunya cases and fast intervention. It is possible that low/medium vector infestation level could explain in part the paucity of chikungunya infections in Panama.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito borne pathogen that causes fever with rash and arthralgia, which are often confused with Dengue virus (DENV) infections. It has been reported that when CHIKV colonizes regions without previous circulation, it generally results in explosive human epidemics. In Panama, the first CHIKV infections were detected in May 2014. However, unlike many countries in the Americas, Panama presented with few autochthonous cases during the outbreak. In this study, we investigated the likely reason for the paucity of cases. Low vector infestation level, along with the surveillance programs, preparedness and early outbreak response possibly influenced the low number of cases observed during the Panamanian CHIKV outbreak.

Prevention and control of dengue-the light at the end of the tunnel

Advances in the development of new dengue control tools, including vaccines and vector control, herald a new era of desperately needed dengue prevention and control. The burden of dengue has expanded for decades, and now affects more than 120 countries. Complex, large-scale global forces have and will continue to contribute to the expansion of dengue, including population growth, unplanned urbanisation, and suboptimal mosquito control in urban centres. Although no so-called magic bullets are available, there is new optimism following the first licensure of a dengue vaccine and other promising vaccine candidates, and the development of novel vector control interventions to help control dengue and other expanding mosquito-borne diseases such as Zika virus. Implementation of effective and sustainable immunisation programmes to complement existing methods will add complexity to the health systems of affected countries, which have varying levels of robustness and maturity. Long-term high prioritisation and adequate resources are needed. The way forward is full commitment to addressing a complex disease with a set of solutions integrating vaccination and vector control methods. A whole systems approach is thus needed to integrate these various approaches and strategies for controlling dengue within the goal of universal health coverage. The ultimate objective of these interventions will be to reduce the disease burden in a sustainable and equitable manner.

Innovative dengue vector control interventions in Latin America: what do they cost?

Background

Five studies were conducted in Fortaleza (Brazil), Girardot (Colombia), Machala (Ecuador), Acapulco (Mexico), and Salto (Uruguay) to assess dengue vector control interventions tailored to the context. The studies involved the community explicitly in the implementation, and focused on the most productive breeding places for Aedes aegypti. This article reports the cost analysis of these interventions.

Methods

We conducted the costing from the perspective of the vector control program. We collected data on quantities and unit costs of the resources used to deliver the interventions. Comparable information was requested for the routine activities. Cost items were classified, analyzed descriptively, and aggregated to calculate total costs, costs per house reached, and incremental costs.

Results

Cost per house of the interventions were $18.89 (Fortaleza), $21.86 (Girardot), $30.61 (Machala), $39.47 (Acapulco), and $6.98 (Salto). Intervention components that focused mainly on changes to the established vector control programs seem affordable; cost savings were identified in Salto (−21%) and the clean patio component in Machala (−12%). An incremental cost of 10% was estimated in Fortaleza. On the other hand, there were also completely new components that would require sizeable financial efforts (installing insecticide-treated nets in Girardot and Acapulco costs $16.97 and $24.96 per house, respectively).

Conclusions

The interventions are promising, seem affordable and may improve the cost profile of the established vector control programs. The costs of the new components could be considerable, and should be assessed in relation to the benefits in reduced dengue burden.

A comparative analysis of three vector-borne diseases across Australia using seasonal and meteorological models

Ross River virus (RRV), Barmah Forest virus (BFV), and dengue are three common mosquito-borne diseases in Australia that display notable seasonal patterns. Although all three diseases have been modeled on localized scales, no previous study has used harmonic models to compare seasonality of mosquito-borne diseases on a continent-wide scale. We fit Poisson harmonic regression models to surveillance data on RRV, BFV, and dengue (from 1993, 1995 and 1991, respectively, through 2015) incorporating seasonal, trend, and climate (temperature and rainfall) parameters. The models captured an average of 50–65% variability of the data. Disease incidence for all three diseases generally peaked in January or February, but peak timing was most variable for dengue. The most significant predictor parameters were trend and inter-annual periodicity for BFV, intra-annual periodicity for RRV, and trend for dengue. We found that a Temperature Suitability Index (TSI), designed to reclassify climate data relative to optimal conditions for vector establishment, could be applied to this context. Finally, we extrapolated our models to estimate the impact of a false-positive BFV epidemic in 2013. Creating these models and comparing variations in periodicities may provide insight into historical outbreaks as well as future patterns of mosquito-borne diseases.

Mitigating Future Avian Malaria Threats to Hawaiian Forest Birds from Climate Change

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21^st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai’i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

Public Health Interventions for Aedes Control in the Time of Zikavirus- A Meta-Review on Effectiveness of Vector Control Strategies

BACKGROUND

There is renewed interest in effective measures to control Zika and dengue vectors. A synthesis of published literature with a focus on the quality of evidence is warranted to determine the effectiveness of vector control strategies.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a meta-review assessing the effectiveness of any Aedes control measure. We searched Scopus and Medline for relevant reviews through to May 2016. Titles, abstracts and full texts were assessed independently for inclusion by two authors. Data extraction was performed in duplicate and validity of the evidence was assessed using GRADE criteria.

FINDINGS

13 systematic reviews that investigated the effect of control measures on entomological parameters or disease incidence were included. Biological controls seem to achieve better reduction of entomological indices than chemical controls, while educational campaigns can reduce breeding habitats. Integrated vector control strategies may not always increase effectiveness. The efficacy of any control programme is dependent on local settings, intervention type, resources and study duration, which may partly explain the varying degree of success between studies. Nevertheless, the quality of evidence was mostly low to very low due to poor reporting of study design, observational methodologies, heterogeneity, and indirect outcomes, thus hindering an evidence-based recommendation.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence for the effectiveness of Aedes control measures is mixed. Chemical control, which is commonly used, does not appear to be associated with sustainable reductions of mosquito populations over time. Indeed, by contributing to a false sense of security, chemical control may reduce the effectiveness of educational interventions aimed at encouraging local people to remove mosquito breeding sites. Better quality studies of the impact of vector control interventions on the incidence of human infections with Dengue or Zika are still needed.

Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (R0) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands

Before the outbreak that reached the Americas in 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) circulated in Asia and the Pacific: these past epidemics can be highly informative on the key parameters driving virus transmission, such as the basic reproduction number (R0). We compare two compartmental models with different mosquito representations, using surveillance and seroprevalence data for several ZIKV outbreaks in Pacific islands (Yap, Micronesia 2007, Tahiti and Moorea, French Polynesia 2013-2014, New Caledonia 2014). Models are estimated in a stochastic framework with recent Bayesian techniques. R0 for the Pacific ZIKV epidemics is estimated between 1.5 and 4.1, the smallest islands displaying higher and more variable values. This relatively low range of R0 suggests that intervention strategies developed for other flaviviruses should enable as, if not more effective control of ZIKV. Our study also highlights the importance of seroprevalence data for precise quantitative analysis of pathogen propagation, to design prevention and control strategies.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.19874.001

Zika virus is an infectious disease primarily transmitted between people by mosquitoes. While most people develop mild flu-like symptoms, infection during pregnancy can interfere with how the baby’s head and brain develop. Until recently, the virus had only been seen sporadically in Africa and Asia, but since 2007, outbreaks have been recorded on several Pacific islands. In 2015, the Zika virus reached the Americas, and within six months over 1.5 million cases had been reported in Brazil alone.

There is an urgent need to understand how the Zika virus moves within a population in order to help policymakers, and public health professionals, plan treatment and control of outbreaks of the disease. Researchers often use predictive models to estimate how a disease will spread. A parameter commonly calculated by these models is the “basic reproductive number”, or R₀, which represents the average number of additional cases of the disease caused by one infected individual.

Using models that incorporated data from Zika virus outbreaks that occurred on several Pacific islands, Champagne et al. have produced estimates of R₀ that range from 1.5-4.1.

The R₀ values are greater than one, indicating that infection will spread within a population, but in the same range as those obtained for dengue fever, another closely related mosquito-borne disease. This suggests that by taking appropriate measures, the spread of Zika and dengue can be controlled to similar extents.

A closer look at the relationship between the population size and the predicted R₀ value for each Pacific island revealed an unexpected inverse relationship: the smaller the population, the larger the value of R₀. Since other regional factors may also explain these large differences between settings, further work is needed to disentangle context-specific from disease-specific factors. In this respect, data about seroprevalence (the number of people whose blood shows evidence of a past infection) in different populations is crucial for precisely analyzing the spread of Zika virus.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.19874.002

Empirical model for estimating dengue incidence using temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity: a 19-year retrospective analysis in East Delhi

OBJECTIVES

Aedes mosquitoes are responsible for transmitting the dengue virus. The mosquito lifecycle is known to be influenced by temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. This retrospective study was planned to investigate whether climatic factors could be used to predict the occurrence of dengue in East Delhi.

METHODS

The number of monthly dengue cases reported over 19 years was obtained from the laboratory records of our institution. Monthly data of rainfall, temperature, and humidity collected from a local weather station were correlated with the number of monthly reported dengue cases. One-way analysis of variance was used to analyse whether the climatic parameters differed significantly among seasons. Four models were developed using negative binomial generalized linear model analysis. Monthly rainfall, temperature, humidity, were used as independent variables, and the number of dengue cases reported monthly was used as the dependent variable. The first model considered data from the same month, while the other three models involved incorporating data with a lag phase of 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively.

RESULTS

The greatest number of cases was reported during the post-monsoon period each year. Temperature, rainfall, and humidity varied significantly across the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon periods. The best correlation between these three climatic factors and dengue occurrence was at a time lag of 2 months.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity significantly affected dengue occurrence in East Delhi. This weather-based dengue empirical model can forecast potential outbreaks 2-month in advance, providing an early warning system for intensifying dengue control measures.

Dengue in a changing climate

Dengue is the world's most important arboviral disease in terms of number of people affected. Over the past 50 years, incidence increased 30-fold: there were approximately 390 million infections in 2010. Globalization, trade, travel, demographic trends, and warming temperatures are associated with the recent spread of the primary vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and of dengue. Overall, models project that new geographic areas along the fringe of current geographic ranges for Aedes will become environmentally suitable for the mosquito's lifecycle, and for dengue transmission. Many endemic countries where dengue is likely to spread further have underdeveloped health systems, increasing the substantial challenges of disease prevention and control. Control focuses on management of Aedes, although these efforts have typically had limited effectiveness in preventing outbreaks. New prevention and control efforts are needed to counter the potential consequences of climate change on the geographic range and incidence of dengue, including novel methods of vector control and dengue vaccines.

A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial to Reduce Diarrheal Disease and Dengue Entomological Risk Factors in Rural Primary Schools in Colombia

BACKGROUND

As many neglected tropical diseases are co-endemic and have common risk factors, integrated control can efficiently reduce disease burden and relieve resource-strained public health budgets. Diarrheal diseases and dengue fever are major global health problems sharing common risk factors in water storage containers. Where provision of clean water is inadequate, water storage is crucial. Fecal contamination of stored water is a common source of diarrheal illness, but stored water also provides breeding sites for dengue vector mosquitoes. Integrating improved water management and educational strategies for both diseases in the school environment can potentially improve the health situation for students and the larger community. The objective of this trial was to investigate whether interventions targeting diarrhea and dengue risk factors would significantly reduce absence due to diarrheal disease and dengue entomological risk factors in schools.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A factorial cluster randomized controlled trial was carried out in 34 rural primary schools (1,301 pupils) in La Mesa and Anapoima municipalities, Cundinamarca, Colombia. Schools were randomized to one of four study arms: diarrhea interventions (DIA), dengue interventions (DEN), combined diarrhea and dengue interventions (DIADEN), and control (CON). Interventions had no apparent effect on pupil school absence due to diarrheal disease (p = 0.45) or on adult female Aedes aegypti density (p = 0.32) (primary outcomes). However, the dengue interventions reduced the Breteau Index on average by 78% (p = 0.029), with Breteau indices of 10.8 and 6.2 in the DEN and DIADEN arms, respectively compared to 37.5 and 46.9 in the DIA and CON arms, respectively. The diarrhea interventions improved water quality as assessed by the amount of Escherichia coli colony forming units (CFU); the ratio of Williams mean E. coli CFU being 0.22, or 78% reduction (p = 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Integrated control of dengue and diarrhea has never been conducted before. This trial presents an example for application of control strategies that may affect both diseases and the first study to apply such an approach in school settings. The interventions were well received and highly appreciated by students and teachers. An apparent absence of effect in primary outcome indicators could be the result of pupils being exposed to risk factors outside the school area and mosquitoes flying in from nearby uncontrolled breeding sites. Integrated interventions targeting these diseases in a school context remain promising because of the reduced mosquito breeding and improved water quality, as well as educational benefits. However, to improve outcomes in future integrated approaches, simultaneous interventions in communities, in addition to schools, should be considered; using appropriate combinations of site-specific, effective, acceptable, and affordable interventions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov no. ISRCTN40195031.

The Eye of the Tiger, the Thrill of the Fight: Effective Larval and Adult Control Measures Against the Asian Tiger Mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae), in North America

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse), is a highly invasive container-inhabiting species with a global distribution. This mosquito, similar to other Stegomyia species such as Aedes aegypti (L.), is highly adapted to urban and suburban areas, and commonly oviposits in artificial containers, which are ubiquitous in these peridomestic environments. The increase in speed and amount of international travel and commerce, coupled with global climate change, have aided in the resurgence and expansion of Stegomyia species into new areas of North America. In many parts of their range, both species are implicated as significant vectors of emerging and re-emerging arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and now Zika. Although rapid and major advances have been made in the field of biology, ecology, genetics, taxonomy, and virology, relatively little has changed in the field of mosquito control in recent decades. This is particularly discouraging in regards to container-inhabiting mosquitoes, because traditional integrated mosquito management (IMM) approaches have not been effective against these species. Many mosquito control programs simply do not possess the man-power or necessary financial resources needed to suppress Ae. albopictus effectively. Therefore, control of mosquito larvae, which is the foundation of IMM approaches, is exceptionally difficult over large areas. This review paper addresses larval habitats, use of geographic information systems for habitat preference detection, door-to-door control efforts, source reduction, direct application of larvicides, biological control agents, area-wide low-volume application of larvicides, hot spot treatments, autodissemination stations, public education, adult traps, attractive-toxic sugar bait methods, lethal ovitraps, barrier-residual adulticides, hand-held ultra-low-volume adulticides, area-wide adulticides applied by ground or air, and genetic control methods. The review concludes with future recommendations for practitioners, researchers, private industry, and policy makers.

Dengue Contingency Planning: From Research to Policy and Practice

BACKGROUND

Dengue is an increasingly incident disease across many parts of the world. In response, an evidence-based handbook to translate research into policy and practice was developed. This handbook facilitates contingency planning as well as the development and use of early warning and response systems for dengue fever epidemics, by identifying decision-making processes that contribute to the success or failure of dengue surveillance, as well as triggers that initiate effective responses to incipient outbreaks.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Available evidence was evaluated using a step-wise process that included systematic literature reviews, policymaker and stakeholder interviews, a study to assess dengue contingency planning and outbreak management in 10 countries, and a retrospective logistic regression analysis to identify alarm signals for an outbreak warning system using datasets from five dengue endemic countries. Best practices for managing a dengue outbreak are provided for key elements of a dengue contingency plan including timely contingency planning, the importance of a detailed, context-specific dengue contingency plan that clearly distinguishes between routine and outbreak interventions, surveillance systems for outbreak preparedness, outbreak definitions, alert algorithms, managerial capacity, vector control capacity, and clinical management of large caseloads. Additionally, a computer-assisted early warning system, which enables countries to identify and respond to context-specific variables that predict forthcoming dengue outbreaks, has been developed.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Most countries do not have comprehensive, detailed contingency plans for dengue outbreaks. Countries tend to rely on intensified vector control as their outbreak response, with minimal focus on integrated management of clinical care, epidemiological, laboratory and vector surveillance, and risk communication. The Technical Handbook for Surveillance, Dengue Outbreak Prediction/ Detection and Outbreak Response seeks to provide countries with evidence-based best practices to justify the declaration of an outbreak and the mobilization of the resources required to implement an effective dengue contingency plan.

[Recommendations for the surveillance of Aedes aegypti]

Diseases caused by arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika, continue to rise in annual incidence and geographic expansion. A key limitation for achieving control of A. aegypti has been the lack of effective tools for monitoring its population, and thus determine what control measures actually work. Surveillance of A. aegypti has been based mainly on immature indexes, but they bear little relation to the number of mosquito females, which are the ones capable of transmitting the viruses. The recent development of sampling techniques for adults of this vector species promises to facilitate surveillance and control activities. In this review, we present the various monitoring techniques for this mosquito, along with a discussion of their usefulness, and recommendations for improved entomological surveillance.

Storm drains as larval development and adult resting sites for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Salvador, Brazil

Background

Dengue (DENV), Chikungunya (CHIKV), Zika (ZIKV), as well as yellow fever (YFV) viruses are transmitted to humans by Aedes spp. females. In Salvador, the largest urban center in north-eastern Brazil, the four DENV types have been circulating, and more recently, CHIKV and ZIKV have also become common. We studied the role of storm drains as Aedes larval development and adult resting sites in four neighbourhoods of Salvador, representing different socioeconomic, infrastructure and topographic conditions.

Results

A sample of 122 storm drains in the four study sites were surveyed twice during a 4-month period in 2015; in 49.0 % of the visits, the storm drains contained water. Adults and immatures of Aedes aegypti were captured in two of the four sites, and adults and immatures of Aedes albopictus were captured in one of these two sites. A total of 468 specimens were collected: 148 Ae. aegypti (38 adults and 110 immatures), 79 Ae. albopictus (48 adults and 31 immatures), and 241 non-Aedes (mainly Culex spp.) mosquitoes (42 adults and 199 immatures). The presence of adults or immatures of Ae. aegypti in storm drains was independently associated with the presence of non-Aedes mosquitoes and with rainfall of ≤ 50 mm during the preceding week.

Conclusions

We found that in Salvador, one of the epicentres of the 2015 ZIKV outbreak, storm drains often accumulate water and serve as larval development sites and adult resting areas for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Vector control campaigns usually overlook storm drains, as most of the effort to prevent Ae. agypti reproduction is directed towards containers in the domicile environment. While further studies are needed to determine the added contribution of storm drains for the maintenance of Aedes spp. populations, we advocate that vector control programs incorporate actions directed at storm drains, including regular inspections and use of larvicides, and that human and capital resources are mobilized to modify storm drains, so that they do not serves as larval development sites for Aedes (and other) mosquitoes.

Infection Rates by Dengue Virus in Mosquitoes and the Influence of Temperature May Be Related to Different Endemicity Patterns in Three Colombian Cities

Colombia is an endemic country for dengue fever where the four serotypes of virus dengue (DENV1–4) circulate simultaneously, and all types are responsible for dengue cases in the country. The control strategies are guided by entomological surveillance. However, heterogeneity in aedic indices is not well correlated with the incidence of the disease in cities such as Riohacha, Bello and Villavicencio. As an alternative, molecular detection of dengue virus in mosquitoes has been proposed as a useful tool for epidemiological surveillance and identification of serotypes circulating in field. We conducted a spatiotemporal fieldwork in these cities to capture adult mosquitoes to assess vector infection and explain the differences between Breteau indices and disease incidence. DENV infection in females and DENV serotype identification were evaluated and infection rates (IR) were estimated. The relationship between density, dengue cases and vector index was also estimated with logistic regression modeling and Pearson’s correlation coefficient. The lack of association between aedic indices and dengue incidence is in agreement with the weak associations between the density of the mosquitoes and their infection with DENV in the three cities. However, association was evident between the IR and dengue cases in Villavicencio. Furthermore, we found important negative associations between temperature and lag time from two to six weeks in Riohacha. We conclude that density of mosquitoes is not a good predictor of dengue cases. Instead, IR and temperature might explain better such heterogeneity.

Evaluation of Alternative Killing Agents for Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Gravid Aedes Trap (GAT)

The Gravid Aedes Trap (GAT) uses visual and olfactory cues to attract gravid Aedes aegypti (L.) that are then captured when knocked down by a residual pyrethroid surface spray. However, the use of surface sprays can be compromised by poor availability of the spray and pesticide resistance in the target mosquito. We investigated several "alternative" insecticide and insecticide-free killing agents for use in the GAT. This included long-lasting insecticide-impregnated nets (LLINs), vapor-active synthetic pyrethroids (metofluthrin), canola oil, and two types of dry adhesive sticky card. During bench top assays LLINs, metofluthrin, and dry sticky cards had 24-h knockdown (KD) percentages >80% (91.2 ± 7.2%, 84.2 ± 6.8%, and 83.4 ± 6.1%, respectively), whereas the 24-h KD for canola oil was 70 ± 7.7%, which improved to 90.0 ± 3.7% over 48 h. Importantly, there were no significant differences in the number of Ae. aegypti collected per week or the number of traps positive for Ae. aegypti between the sticky card and canola oil treatments compared with the surface spray and LLIN treatments in semifield and field trials. These results demonstrate that the use of inexpensive and widely available insecticide-free agents such as those described in this study are effective alternatives to pyrethroids in regions with insecticide-resistant populations. The use of such environmentally friendly insecticide-free alternatives will also be attractive in areas where there is substantial resistance to insecticide use due to environmental and public health concerns.

Alarm Variables for Dengue Outbreaks: A Multi-Centre Study in Asia and Latin America

BACKGROUND

Worldwide, dengue is an unrelenting economic and health burden. Dengue outbreaks have become increasingly common, which place great strain on health infrastructure and services. Early warning models could allow health systems and vector control programmes to respond more cost-effectively and efficiently.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The Shewhart method and Endemic Channel were used to identify alarm variables that may predict dengue outbreaks. Five country datasets were compiled by epidemiological week over the years 2007-2013. These data were split between the years 2007-2011 (historic period) and 2012-2013 (evaluation period). Associations between alarm/ outbreak variables were analysed using logistic regression during the historic period while alarm and outbreak signals were captured during the evaluation period. These signals were combined to form alarm/ outbreak periods, where 2 signals were equal to 1 period. Alarm periods were quantified and used to predict subsequent outbreak periods. Across Mexico and Dominican Republic, an increase in probable cases predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases with sensitivities and positive predictive values (PPV) of 93%/ 83% and 97%/ 86% respectively, at a lag of 1-12 weeks. An increase in mean temperature ably predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases in Mexico and Brazil, with sensitivities and PPVs of 79%/ 73% and 81%/ 46% respectively, also at a lag of 1-12 weeks. Mean age was predictive of hospitalised cases at sensitivities and PPVs of 72%/ 74% and 96%/ 45% in Mexico and Malaysia respectively, at a lag of 4-16 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

An increase in probable cases was predictive of outbreaks, while meteorological variables, particularly mean temperature, demonstrated predictive potential in some countries, but not all. While it is difficult to define uniform variables applicable in every country context, the use of probable cases and meteorological variables in tailored early warning systems could be used to highlight the occurrence of dengue outbreaks or indicate increased risk of dengue transmission.

Inferring the Spatio-temporal Patterns of Dengue Transmission from Surveillance Data in Guangzhou, China

Background

Dengue is a serious vector-borne disease, and incidence rates have significantly increased during the past few years, particularly in 2014 in Guangzhou. The current situation is more complicated, due to various factors such as climate warming, urbanization, population increase, and human mobility. The purpose of this study is to detect dengue transmission patterns and identify the disease dispersion dynamics in Guangzhou, China.

Methodology

We conducted surveys in 12 districts of Guangzhou, and collected daily data of Breteau index (BI) and reported cases between September and November 2014 from the public health authority reports. Based on the available data and the Ross-Macdonald theory, we propose a dengue transmission model that systematically integrates entomologic, demographic, and environmental information. In this model, we use (1) BI data and geographic variables to evaluate the spatial heterogeneities of Aedes mosquitoes, (2) a radiation model to simulate the daily mobility of humans, and (3) a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to estimate the model parameters.

Results/Conclusions

By implementing our proposed model, we can (1) estimate the incidence rates of dengue, and trace the infection time and locations, (2) assess risk factors and evaluate the infection threat in a city, and (3) evaluate the primary diffusion process in different districts. From the results, we can see that dengue infections exhibited a spatial and temporal variation during 2014 in Guangzhou. We find that urbanization, vector activities, and human behavior play significant roles in shaping the dengue outbreak and the patterns of its spread. This study offers useful information on dengue dynamics, which can help policy makers improve control and prevention measures.

Dengue transmission is a spatio-temporal process with interactions between hosts, vectors, and viruses. Its transmission also involves multiple complex or even hidden factors, such as climate, social environment, vector ecology, and host mobility. These complexities make the underlying process of dengue transmission difficult to clarify. We address how the patterns of dengue transmission can be inferred by investigating the 2014 dengue outbreak in the city of Guangzhou, China, taking the available surveillance data and applying mathematical models and computational methods. We can then estimate the distribution of dengue infections and identify the transmission mechanisms. In our study, we systematically investigate the critical factors, enabling us to estimate the real patterns and dynamics of dengue transmission beyond the surveillance data.

Analysis of significant factors for dengue fever incidence prediction

Background

Many popular dengue forecasting techniques have been used by several researchers to extrapolate dengue incidence rates, including the K-H model, support vector machines (SVM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). The time series analysis methodology, particularly ARIMA and SARIMA, has been increasingly applied to the field of epidemiological research for dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and other infectious diseases. The main drawback of these methods is that they do not consider other variables that are associated with the dependent variable. Additionally, new factors correlated to the disease are needed to enhance the prediction accuracy of the model when it is applied to areas of similar climates, where weather factors such as temperature, total rainfall, and humidity are not substantially different. Such drawbacks may consequently lower the predictive power for the outbreak.

Results

The predictive power of the forecasting model-assessed by Akaike’s information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)-is improved by including the new parameters for dengue outbreak prediction. This study’s selected model outperforms all three other competing models with the lowest AIC, the lowest BIC, and a small MAPE value. The exclusive use of climate factors from similar locations decreases a model’s prediction power. The multivariate Poisson regression, however, effectively forecasts even when climate variables are slightly different. Female mosquitoes and seasons were strongly correlated with dengue cases. Therefore, the dengue incidence trends provided by this model will assist the optimization of dengue prevention.

Conclusions

The present work demonstrates the important roles of female mosquito infection rates from the previous season and climate factors (represented as seasons) in dengue outbreaks. Incorporating these two factors in the model significantly improves the predictive power of dengue hemorrhagic fever forecasting models, as confirmed by AIC, BIC, and MAPE.

Dengue and chikungunya: modelling the expansion of mosquito-borne viruses into naïve populations

With the recent global spread of a number of mosquito-borne viruses, there is an urgent need to understand the factors that contribute to the ability of viruses to expand into naïve populations. Using dengue and chikungunya viruses as case studies, we detail the necessary components of the expansion process: presence of the mosquito vector; introduction of the virus; and suitable conditions for local transmission. For each component we review the existing modelling approaches that have been used to understand recent emergence events or to assess the risk of future expansions. We identify gaps in our knowledge that are related to each of the distinct aspects of the human-mosquito transmission cycle: mosquito ecology; human-mosquito contact; mosquito-virus interactions; and human-virus interactions. Bridging these gaps poses challenges to both modellers and empiricists, but only through further integration of models and data will we improve our ability to better understand, and ultimately control, several infectious diseases that exert a significant burden on human health.

Detection of all four dengue serotypes in Aedes aegypti female mosquitoes collected in a rural area in Colombia

The Aedes aegypti vector for dengue virus (DENV) has been reported in urban and periurban areas. The information about DENV circulation in mosquitoes in Colombian rural areas is limited, so we aimed to evaluate the presence of DENV in Ae. aegypti females caught in rural locations of two Colombian municipalities, Anapoima and La Mesa. Mosquitoes from 497 rural households in 44 different rural settlements were collected. Pools of about 20 Ae. aegypti females were processed for DENV serotype detection. DENV in mosquitoes was detected in 74% of the analysed settlements with a pool positivity rate of 62%. The estimated individual mosquito infection rate was 4.12% and the minimum infection rate was 33.3/1,000 mosquitoes. All four serotypes were detected; the most frequent being DENV-2 (50%) and DENV-1 (35%). Two-three serotypes were detected simultaneously in separate pools. This is the first report on the co-occurrence of natural DENV infection of mosquitoes in Colombian rural areas. The findings are important for understanding dengue transmission and planning control strategies. A potential latent virus reservoir in rural areas could spill over to urban areas during population movements. Detecting DENV in wild-caught adult mosquitoes should be included in the development of dengue epidemic forecasting models.

Early Detection for Dengue Using Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) Analysis

Dengue is a viral disease caused by a flavivirus that is transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes. There is currently no specific treatment or commercial vaccine for its control and prevention; therefore, mosquito population control is the only alternative for preventing the occurrence of dengue. For this reason, entomological surveillance is recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) to measure dengue risk in endemic areas; however, several works have shown that the current methodology (aedic indices) is not sufficient for predicting dengue. In this work, we modified indices proposed for epidemic periods. The raw value of the epidemiological wave could be useful for detecting risk in epidemic periods; however, risk can only be detected if analyses incorporate the maximum epidemiological wave. Risk classification was performed according to Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) methodology. The modified indices were analyzed using several hypothetical scenarios to evaluate their sensitivity. We found that modified indices could detect spatial and differential risks in epidemic and endemic years, which makes them a useful tool for the early detection of a dengue outbreak. In conclusion, the modified indices could predict risk at the spatio-temporal level in endemic years and could be incorporated in surveillance activities in endemic places.

Dengue in Java, Indonesia: Relevance of Mosquito Indices as Risk Predictors

Background

No vaccine is currently available for dengue virus (DENV), therefore control programmes usually focus on managing mosquito vector populations. Entomological surveys provide the most common means of characterising vector populations and predicting the risk of local dengue virus transmission. Despite Indonesia being a country strongly affected by DENV, only limited information is available on the local factors affecting DENV transmission and the suitability of available survey methods for assessing risk.

Methodology/principal findings

We conducted entomological surveys in the Banyumas Regency (Central Java) where dengue cases occur on an annual basis. Four villages were sampled during the dry and rainy seasons: two villages where dengue was endemic, one where dengue cases occurred sporadically and one which was dengue-free. In addition to data for conventional larvae indices, we collected data on pupae indices, and collected adult mosquitoes for species identification in order to determine mosquito species composition and population density. Traditionally used larval indices (House indices, Container indices and Breteau indices) were found to be inadequate as indicators for DENV transmission risk. In contrast, species composition of adult mosquitoes revealed that competent vector species were dominant in dengue endemic and sporadic villages.

Conclusions/significance

Our data suggested that the utility of traditional larvae indices, which continue to be used in many dengue endemic countries, should be re-evaluated locally. The results highlight the need for validation of risk indicators and control strategies across DENV affected areas here and perhaps elsewhere in SE Asia.

Geographically and economically, Indonesia is one of the most prominent countries in SE Asia, yet many of its endemic infectious diseases are poorly managed, controlled and understood. This includes dengue virus (DENV), which can result in serious human disease and is transmitted by mosquitoes. Dengue risk assessment is a key factor in managing the impact of infection on public health, and this often relies on assessing the presence and nature of mosquitoes through a number of indices associated with the occurrence of larvae and the location/availability of breeding containers. Here we assessed traditionally used indices in combination with other indicators including pupae indices, and the presence of adult mosquitoes in areas with different dengue status: endemic, sporadic or free. Our data suggested that traditional indices were poor indicators of reported local DENV transmission. This has important consequences for design and focus of risk management strategies and efforts to control DENV locally as well as elsewhere in the region.

Zika virus infection-the next wave after dengue?

Zika virus was initially discovered in east Africa about 70 years ago and remained a neglected arboviral disease in Africa and Southeast Asia. The virus first came into the limelight in 2007 when it caused an outbreak in Micronesia. In the ensuing decade, it spread widely in other Pacific islands, after which its incursion into Brazil in 2015 led to a widespread epidemic in Latin America. In most infected patients the disease is relatively benign. Serious complications include Guillain-Barré syndrome and congenital infection which may lead to microcephaly and maculopathy. Aedes mosquitoes are the main vectors, in particular, Ae. aegypti. Ae. albopictus is another potential vector. Since the competent mosquito vectors are highly prevalent in most tropical and subtropical countries, introduction of the virus to these areas could readily result in endemic transmission of the disease. The priorities of control include reinforcing education of travellers to and residents of endemic areas, preventing further local transmission by vectors, and an integrated vector management programme. The container habitats of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus means engagement of the community and citizens is of utmost importance to the success of vector control.

Is Dengue Vector Control Deficient in Effectiveness or Evidence?: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although a vaccine could be available as early as 2016, vector control remains the primary approach used to prevent dengue, the most common and widespread arbovirus of humans worldwide. We reviewed the evidence for effectiveness of vector control methods in reducing its transmission.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Studies of any design published since 1980 were included if they evaluated method(s) targeting Aedes aegypti or Ae. albopictus for at least 3 months. Primary outcome was dengue incidence. Following Cochrane and PRISMA Group guidelines, database searches yielded 960 reports, and 41 were eligible for inclusion, with 19 providing data for meta-analysis. Study duration ranged from 5 months to 10 years. Studies evaluating multiple tools/approaches (23 records) were more common than single methods, while environmental management was the most common method (19 studies). Only 9/41 reports were randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Two out of 19 studies evaluating dengue incidence were RCTs, and neither reported any statistically significant impact. No RCTs evaluated effectiveness of insecticide space-spraying (fogging) against dengue. Based on meta-analyses, house screening significantly reduced dengue risk, OR 0.22 (95% CI 0.05-0.93, p = 0.04), as did combining community-based environmental management and water container covers, OR 0.22 (95% CI 0.15-0.32, p<0.0001). Indoor residual spraying (IRS) did not impact significantly on infection risk (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.22-2.11; p = 0.50). Skin repellents, insecticide-treated bed nets or traps had no effect (p>0.5), but insecticide aerosols (OR 2.03; 95% CI 1.44-2.86) and mosquito coils (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.09-1.91) were associated with higher dengue risk (p = 0.01). Although 23/41 studies examined the impact of insecticide-based tools, only 9 evaluated the insecticide susceptibility status of the target vector population during the study.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This review and meta-analysis demonstrate the remarkable paucity of reliable evidence for the effectiveness of any dengue vector control method. Standardised studies of higher quality to evaluate and compare methods must be prioritised to optimise cost-effective dengue prevention.

Climate and the Timing of Imported Cases as Determinants of the Dengue Outbreak in Guangzhou, 2014: Evidence from a Mathematical Model

As the world’s fastest spreading vector-borne disease, dengue was estimated to infect more than 390 million people in 2010, a 30-fold increase in the past half century. Although considered to be a non-endemic country, mainland China had 55,114 reported dengue cases from 2005 to 2014, of which 47,056 occurred in 2014. Furthermore, 94% of the indigenous cases in this time period were reported in Guangdong Province, 83% of which were in Guangzhou City. In order to determine the possible determinants of the unprecedented outbreak in 2014, a population-based deterministic model was developed to describe dengue transmission dynamics in Guangzhou. Regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) was adopted to calibrate the model and entomological surveillance data was used to validate the mosquito submodel. Different scenarios were created to investigate the roles of the timing of an imported case, climate, vertical transmission from mosquitoes to their offspring, and intervention. The results suggested that an early imported case was the most important factor in determining the 2014 outbreak characteristics. Precipitation and temperature can also change the transmission dynamics. Extraordinary high precipitation in May and August, 2014 appears to have increased vector abundance. Considering the relatively small number of cases in 2013, the effect of vertical transmission was less important. The earlier and more frequent intervention in 2014 also appeared to be effective. If the intervention in 2014 was the same as that in 2013, the outbreak size may have been over an order of magnitude higher than the observed number of new cases in 2014.The early date of the first imported and locally transmitted case was largely responsible for the outbreak in 2014, but it was influenced by intervention, climate and vertical transmission. Early detection and response to imported cases in the spring and early summer is crucial to avoid large outbreaks in the future.

Dengue has not been considered to be a major problem in China since it is recognized as an imported disease and only 8,058 cases were reported from 2005 to 2013. However, in 2014 alone, 47,056 new cases were reported. In this study, a mathematical model was developed to determine the possible cause of this outbreak. The most important parameters found to underlie the pattern of a small outbreak in 2013 and a much larger one in 2014 was the timing of the first imported and locally transmitted case. The importance of precipitation and temperature was also confirmed by the simulation results under different climate scenarios. The model also suggests that the earlier and more frequent control interventions in 2014 targeting immature mosquitoes, such as emptying water containers, and adult control, were effective in preventing larger outbreaks. Furthermore, more attention should be paid to imported cases occurring between March 1^st and July 1^st to prevent early and prolonged transmission. Without early detection and response, the final outbreak size might otherwise be an order of magnitude or more the size when the imported case occurred outside this time period.

Re-assess Vector Indices Threshold as an Early Warning Tool for Predicting Dengue Epidemic in a Dengue Non-endemic Country

Background

Despite dengue dynamics being driven by complex interactions between human hosts, mosquito vectors and viruses that are influenced by climate factors, an operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk in a dengue non-endemic area has not been developed. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the temporal relationship between meteorological variables, entomological surveillance indices and confirmed dengue cases; and to establish the threshold for entomological surveillance indices including three mosquito larval indices [Breteau (BI), Container (CI) and House indices (HI)] and one adult index (AI) as an early warning tool for dengue epidemic.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Epidemiological, entomological and meteorological data were analyzed from 2005 to 2012 in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. The successive waves of dengue outbreaks with different magnitudes were recorded in Kaohsiung City, and involved a dominant serotype during each epidemic. The annual indigenous dengue cases usually started from May to June and reached a peak in October to November. Vector data from 2005–2012 showed that the peak of the adult mosquito population was followed by a peak in the corresponding dengue activity with a lag period of 1–2 months. Therefore, we focused the analysis on the data from May to December and the high risk district, where the inspection of the immature and mature mosquitoes was carried out on a weekly basis and about 97.9% dengue cases occurred. The two-stage model was utilized here to estimate the risk and time-lag effect of annual dengue outbreaks in Taiwan. First, Poisson regression was used to select the optimal subset of variables and time-lags for predicting the number of dengue cases, and the final results of the multivariate analysis were selected based on the smallest AIC value. Next, each vector index models with selected variables were subjected to multiple logistic regression models to examine the accuracy of predicting the occurrence of dengue cases. The results suggested that Model-AI, BI, CI and HI predicted the occurrence of dengue cases with 83.8, 87.8, 88.3 and 88.4% accuracy, respectively. The predicting threshold based on individual Model-AI, BI, CI and HI was 0.97, 1.16, 1.79 and 0.997, respectively.

Conclusion/Significance

There was little evidence of quantifiable association among vector indices, meteorological factors and dengue transmission that could reliably be used for outbreak prediction. Our study here provided the proof-of-concept of how to search for the optimal model and determine the threshold for dengue epidemics. Since those factors used for prediction varied, depending on the ecology and herd immunity level under different geological areas, different thresholds may be developed for different countries using a similar structure of the two-stage model.

With the continuously high levels of worldwide dengue transmission, predicting dengue outbreaks in advance of their occurrence or identifying specific locations where outbreak risks are highest is of critical importance. However, only few studies have been conducted in dengue non-endemic countries to evaluate the association of vector index with the occurrence of dengue cases; and the establishment of an early warning signal would significantly enhance the public health intervention. Our study here provided the proof-of-concept results, utilizing a two-stage model to identify the best set of lag effects of meteorological and entomological variables, explaining dengue epidemics based on the data obtained from Taiwan, which is a dengue-non-endemic country. Each of the vector indices when combined with the meteorological factors has better performance compared to the prediction using AI, BI, CI and HI alone, with 83.8, 87.8, 88.3 and 88.4% accuracy, respectively. Because of the complex interplays between the size of human hosts and movement, environmental factors and dynamic changes of mosquito population and density, each country should consider its own individual data and situation and apply this two-stage model to find the optimal predictive models for allocating public health resources and prevention strategies.

Wolbachia strains for disease control: ecological and evolutionary considerations

Wolbachia are endosymbionts found in many insects with the potential to suppress vectorborne diseases, particularly through interfering with pathogen transmission. Wolbachia strains are highly variable in their effects on hosts, raising the issue of which attributes should be selected to ensure that the best strains are developed for disease control. This depends on their ability to suppress viral transmission, invade host populations, persist without loss of viral suppression and not interfere with other control strategies. The potential to achieve these objectives is likely to involve evolutionary constraints; viral suppression may be limited by the ability of infections to spread due to deleterious host fitness effects. However, there are exceptions to these patterns in both natural infections and in novel associations generated following interspecific transfer, suggesting that pathogen blockage, deleterious fitness effects and changes to reproductive biology might be at least partly decoupled to achieve ideal infection attributes. The stability of introduced Wolbachia and its effects on viral transmission remain unclear, but rapid evolutionary changes seem unlikely. Although deliberate transfers of Wolbachia across species remain particularly challenging, the availability of strains with desirable attributes should be expanded, taking advantage of the diversity available across thousands of strains in natural populations.

Surveillance of adult Aedes mosquitoes in Selangor, Malaysia

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effectiveness of using sticky traps and the NS1 dengue antigen kit for the surveillance of Aedes mosquitoes for dengue control.

METHODS

Apartments were selected in a dengue-endemic area, and sticky traps were set to capture adult Aedes mosquitoes. NS1 dengue antigen kit was used to detect dengue antigen in mosquitoes, and positive mosquitoes were serotyped using real-time RT-PCR.

RESULTS

The sticky traps were effective in capturing Aedes aegypti, and a minimum of three traps per floor was sufficient. Multiple serotypes were found in individual mosquitoes.

CONCLUSION

The sticky trap and the NS1 dengue antigen test kit can be used as surveillance tool in dengue control programmes. This proactive method will be better suited for control programmes than current reactive methods.

Efficacy and community effectiveness of larvivorous fish for dengue vector control

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficacy and community effectiveness of larvivorous fish for the control of dengue vectors and dengue transmission, when used as a single agent or in combination with other vector control methods.

METHOD

Comprehensive literature search of published and grey literature using PubMed, EMBASE (DMDI), Web of Science, WHOLIS, WILEY, LILACS, GIFT, Cochrane Library, ELDIS, New York Academy of Medicine Grey Literature Report and Google. All results were checked for duplicates and examined for eligibility. Methodological quality of the studies was assessed using RoBANS.

RESULTS

Thirteen articles were considered eligible for inclusion. Incorporating a wide range of interventions and outcome measures, three were efficacy studies and 10 assessed community effectiveness. None of the studies were randomised or cluster-randomised controlled trials. All three efficacy studies and seven community effectiveness studies investigated fish as a single agent. All efficacy studies reported elimination of Aedes larvae from treated containers, while community effectiveness studies reported reductions in immature vector stages, two of which also detected a continuous decline over 2 years. An impact on adult mosquitoes was shown in only two community effectiveness studies. Reductions in dengue cases following intervention were reported in two studies, but it was not possible to attribute this to the intervention.

CONCLUSION

While the use of larvivorous fish as a single agent or in combination with other control measures could lead to reductions in immature vector stages, considerable limitations in all the studies restricted any conclusions with respect to the evaluation of community effectiveness. Evidence for the community effectiveness of larvivorous fish as a single agent remains minimal and cluster-randomised controlled studies that include the assessment of impact on dengue are recommended.

Evidence-based vector control? Improving the quality of vector control trials

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) such as malaria, dengue, and leishmaniasis cause a high level of morbidity and mortality. Although vector control tools can play a major role in controlling and eliminating these diseases, in many cases the evidence base for assessing the efficacy of vector control interventions is limited or not available. Studies assessing the efficacy of vector control interventions are often poorly conducted, which limits the return on investment of research funding. Here we outline the principal design features of Phase III vector control field studies, highlight major failings and strengths of published studies, and provide guidance on improving the design and conduct of vector control studies. We hope that this critical assessment will increase the impetus for more carefully considered and rigorous design of vector control studies.

A critical assessment of vector control for dengue prevention

Recently, the Vaccines to Vaccinate (v2V) initiative was reconfigured into the Partnership for Dengue Control (PDC), a multi-sponsored and independent initiative. This redirection is consistent with the growing consensus among the dengue-prevention community that no single intervention will be sufficient to control dengue disease. The PDC's expectation is that when an effective dengue virus (DENV) vaccine is commercially available, the public health community will continue to rely on vector control because the two strategies complement and enhance one another. Although the concept of integrated intervention for dengue prevention is gaining increasingly broader acceptance, to date, no consensus has been reached regarding the details of how and what combination of approaches can be most effectively implemented to manage disease. To fill that gap, the PDC proposed a three step process: (1) a critical assessment of current vector control tools and those under development, (2) outlining a research agenda for determining, in a definitive way, what existing tools work best, and (3) determining how to combine the best vector control options, which have systematically been defined in this process, with DENV vaccines. To address the first step, the PDC convened a meeting of international experts during November 2013 in Washington, DC, to critically assess existing vector control interventions and tools under development. This report summarizes those deliberations.

Risk factors for the presence of chikungunya and dengue vectors (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus), their altitudinal distribution and climatic determinants of their abundance in central Nepal

Background

The presence of the recently introduced primary dengue virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti in Nepal, in association with the likely indigenous secondary vector Aedes albopictus, raises public health concerns. Chikungunya fever cases have also been reported in Nepal, and the virus causing this disease is also transmitted by these mosquito species. Here we report the results of a study on the risk factors for the presence of chikungunya and dengue virus vectors, their elevational ceiling of distribution, and climatic determinants of their abundance in central Nepal.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We collected immature stages of mosquitoes during six monthly cross-sectional surveys covering six administrative districts along an altitudinal transect in central Nepal that extended from Birgunj (80 m above sea level [asl]) to Dhunche (highest altitude sampled: 2,100 m asl). The dengue vectors Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were commonly found up to 1,350 m asl in Kathmandu valley and were present but rarely found from 1,750 to 2,100 m asl in Dhunche. The lymphatic filariasis vector Culex quinquefasciatus was commonly found throughout the study transect. Physiographic region, month of collection, collection station and container type were significant predictors of the occurrence and co-occurrence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. The climatic variables rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity were significant predictors of chikungunya and dengue virus vectors abundance.

Conclusions/Significance

We conclude that chikungunya and dengue virus vectors have already established their populations up to the High Mountain region of Nepal and that this may be attributed to the environmental and climate change that has been observed over the decades in Nepal. The rapid expansion of the distribution of these important disease vectors in the High Mountain region, previously considered to be non-endemic for dengue and chikungunya fever, calls for urgent actions to protect the health of local people and tourists travelling in the central Himalayas.

The local transmission of dengue fever was confirmed in five lowland urban areas in 2006, along with the first report of the primary vectors of dengue virus, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Subsequent studies revealed a wide distribution of Ae. aegypti in 2009, and the first locally acquired dengue fever case in Kathmandu, the capital city of Nepal, during an epidemic in 2010. These records of a rapid expansion of dengue viruses and their primary vector, Ae. aegypti, in the Middle Mountain region and the more pronounced warming of mountains prompted us to investigate the altitudinal distribution and determinants of the abundance of dengue virus vectors in central Nepal. The first local transmission of chikungunya virus was recently reported from central Nepal in 2013. In this study, we document the distribution of Ae. aegypti and the secondary vector of dengue viruses, Aedes albopictus, from the lowlands (80 m) up to 2,100 m altitude in Dhunche, Rasuwa district. The climatic variables rainfall, temperature and relative humidity were significant predictors of their abundances. The distribution extension of these important disease vectors in the High Mountain region calls for urgent actions to protect the health of local people and tourists travelling in the central Himalayas.

Density of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and its association with number of residents and meteorological variables in the home environment of dengue endemic area, São Paulo, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Measure the populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus adults according to sex and location inside or outside the residence, estimate Ae. aegypti female density per house and per resident, and test the association with abiotic factors.

METHODS

Adult mosquitoes were collected monthly with a hand net and portable electric catcher in the peridomiciliary and intradomiciliary premises of residences in an urban area with ongoing dengue transmission in the municipality of São Sebastião, Brazil, from February 2011 to February 2012.

RESULTS

Of the 1,320 specimens collected, 1,311 were Ae. aegypti, and nine were Ae. albopictus. A total of 653 male and 658 female of Ae. aegypti were recorded, of which 80% were intradomiciliary. The mean density of Ae. aegypti adult females was 1.60 females/house and 0.42 females/resident. There was an association between the number of females and the number of residents in both intradomiciliary and peridomiciliary premises (r(2) = 0.92; p < 0.001 and r(2) = 0.68; p < 0.001, respectively). There was an association between the number of females and the mean and total rainfall; the correlation was better in peridomiciliary premises (p = 0.00; r(2) = 77%) than intradomiciliary premises in both cases (p = 0.01; r(2) = 48%). Minimum temperature was associated in both environments, exhibiting the same coefficient of determination (p = 0.02; r(2) = 40%). The low frequency of Ae. albopictus (seven females and two males) did not allow for detailed evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

Ae. aegypti is well established within the urban area studied, and the frequency of isolation is higher inside the houses. Female density was directly proportional to the number of residents in the houses. Our data show that human population density positively affects the number of Ae. aegypti females within the residence. Meteorological variables also affected mosquito populations. These data indicate a high probability of human-vector contact, increasing the possible transmission and spread of the DEN virus. Entomological indicators of adult females revealed important information complimenting what was obtained with traditional Stegomyia indices. This information should be a part of an interconnected data set for evaluating and controlling the vector.

Daily forecast of dengue fever incidents for urban villages in a city

Background

Instead of traditional statistical models for large spatial areas and weekly or monthly temporal units, what public health workers urgently need is a timely risk prediction method for small areas. This risk prediction would provide information for early warning, target surveillance and intervention.

Methods

Daily dengue cases in the 457 urban villages of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan from 2009 to 2012 were used for model development and evaluation. There were in total 2,997 confirmed dengue cases during this period. A logistic regression model was fitted to the daily incidents occurring in the villages for the past 30 days. The fitted model was then used to predict the incidence probabilities of dengue outbreak for the villages the next day. A percentile of the 457*30 fitted incidence probabilities was chosen to determine a cut-point for issuing the alerts. The covariates included three different levels of spatial effect, and with four lag time periods. The population density and the meteorological conditions were also included for the prediction.

Results

The performance of the prediction models was evaluated on 122 consecutive days from September 1 to December 31, 2012. With the 80th percentile threshold, the median sensitivity was 83% and the median false positive rate was 23%. We found that most of the coefficients of the predictors of having cases at the same village in the previous 14 days were positive and significant for the 122 daily updated models. The estimated coefficients of population density were significant during the peak of the epidemic in 2012.

Conclusions

The proposed method can provide near real-time dengue risk prediction for a small area. This can serve as a useful decision making tool for front-line public health workers to control dengue epidemics. The precision of the spatial and temporal units can be easily adjusted to different settings for different cities.

How great is the threat of chikungunya virus?

In the last decade, chikungunya virus has emerged from an obscure arbovirus that caused limited outbreaks of disease in Africa and Asia to the cause of a pandemic affecting millions of people and spanning five continents. Two separate chikungunya virus genotypes have been responsible for outbreaks during this period, including strains adapted to transmission in Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Further spread of this virus into new regions of the Western Hemisphere is predicted during the present rainy season in the tropics, and recurrent viral introductions and disease outbreaks, as occurred in Réunion in 2010, should be expected. Chikungunya virus no longer simply threatens; it has arrived as a significant, global pathogen.

Integrating the public in mosquito management: active education by community peers can lead to significant reduction in peridomestic container mosquito habitats

Mosquito species that utilize peridomestic containers for immature development are commonly aggressive human biters, and because they often reach high abundance, create significant nuisance. One of these species, the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, is an important vector of emerging infectious diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika fevers. Integrated mosquito management (IMM) of Ae. albopictus is particularly difficult because it requires access to private yards in urban and suburban residences. It has become apparent that in the event of a public health concern due to this species, homeowners will have to be active participants in the control process by reducing mosquito habitats in their properties, an activity known as source reduction. However, limited attempts at quantifying the effect of source reduction by homeowners have had mixed results. Of note, many mosquito control programs in the US have some form of education outreach, however the primary approach is often passive focusing on the distribution of education materials as flyers. In 2010, we evaluated the use of active community peer education in a source reduction program, using AmeriCorps volunteers. The volunteers were mobilized over a 4-week period, in two areas with approximately 1,000 residences each in urban Mercer and suburban Monmouth counties in New Jersey, USA. The volunteers were first provided training on peridomestic mosquitoes and on basic approaches to reducing the number of container habitats for mosquito larvae in backyards. Within the two treatment areas the volunteers successfully engaged 758 separate homes. Repeated measures analysis of variance showed a significant reduction in container habitats in the sites where the volunteers actively engaged the community compared to untreated control areas in both counties. Our results suggest that active education using community peer educators can be an effective means of source reduction, and a critical tool in the arsenal against peridomestic mosquitoes.

The spatial dynamics of dengue virus in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

BACKGROUND

Dengue is endemic to the rural province of Kamphaeng Phet, Northern Thailand. A decade of prospective cohort studies has provided important insights into the dengue viruses and their generated disease. However, as elsewhere, spatial dynamics of the pathogen remain poorly understood. In particular, the spatial scale of transmission and the scale of clustering are poorly characterized. This information is critical for effective deployment of spatially targeted interventions and for understanding the mechanisms that drive the dispersal of the virus.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We geocoded the home locations of 4,768 confirmed dengue cases admitted to the main hospital in Kamphaeng Phet province between 1994 and 2008. We used the phi clustering statistic to characterize short-term spatial dependence between cases. Further, to see if clustering of cases led to similar temporal patterns of disease across villages, we calculated the correlation in the long-term epidemic curves between communities. We found that cases were 2.9 times (95% confidence interval 2.7-3.2) more likely to live in the same village and be infected within the same month than expected given the underlying spatial and temporal distribution of cases. This fell to 1.4 times (1.2-1.7) for individuals living in villages 1 km apart. Significant clustering was observed up to 5 km. We found a steadily decreasing trend in the correlation in epidemics curves by distance: communities separated by up to 5 km had a mean correlation of 0.28 falling to 0.16 for communities separated between 20 km and 25 km. A potential explanation for these patterns is a role for human movement in spreading the pathogen between communities. Gravity style models, which attempt to capture population movement, outperformed competing models in describing the observed correlations.

CONCLUSIONS

There exists significant short-term clustering of cases within individual villages. Effective spatially and temporally targeted interventions deployed within villages may target ongoing transmission and reduce infection risk.

Dengue disease surveillance: an updated systematic literature review

OBJECTIVES

To review the evidence for the application of tools for dengue outbreak prediction/detection and trend monitoring in passive and active disease surveillance systems in order to develop recommendations for endemic countries and identify important research needs.

METHODS

This systematic literature review followed the protocol of a review from 2008, extending the systematic search from January 2007 to February 2013 on PubMed, EMBASE, CDSR, WHOLIS and Lilacs. Data reporting followed the PRISMA statement. The eligibility criteria comprised (i) population at risk of dengue, (ii) dengue disease surveillance, (iii) outcome of surveillance described and (iv) empirical data evaluated. The analysis classified studies based on the purpose of the surveillance programme. The main limitation of the review was expected publication bias.

RESULTS

A total of 1116 papers were identified of which 36 articles were included in the review. Four cohort-based prospective studies calculated expansion factors demonstrating remarkable levels of underreporting in the surveillance systems. Several studies demonstrated that enhancement methods such as laboratory support, sentinel-based reporting and staff motivation contributed to improvements in dengue reporting. Additional improvements for passive surveillance systems are possible by incorporating simple data forms/entry/electronic-based reporting; defining clear system objectives; performing data analysis at the lowest possible level (e.g. district); seeking regular data feedback. Six studies showed that serotype changes were positively correlated with the number of reported cases or with dengue incidence, with lag times of up to 6 months. Three studies found that data on internet searches and event-based surveillance correlated well with the epidemic curve derived from surveillance data.

CONCLUSIONS

Passive surveillance providing the baseline for outbreak alert should be strengthened and appropriate threshold levels for outbreak alerts investigated. Additional enhancement tools such as syndromic surveillance, laboratory support and motivation strategies can be added. Appropriate alert signals need to be identified and integrated into a risk assessment tool. Shifts in dengue serotypes/genotype or electronic event-based surveillance have also considerable potential as indicator in dengue surveillance. Further research on evidence-based response strategies and cost-effectiveness is needed.