Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Effect of osteopathic techniques on human resting muscle tone in healthy subjects using myotonometry: a factorial randomized trial

Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) are highly prevalent, burdensome, and putatively associated with an altered human resting muscle tone (HRMT). Osteopathic manipulative treatment (OMT) is commonly and effectively applied to treat MSDs and reputedly influences the HRMT. Arguably, OMT may modulate alterations in HRMT underlying MSDs. However, there is sparse evidence even for the effect of OMT on HRMT in healthy subjects. A 3 × 3 factorial randomised trial was performed to investigate the effect of myofascial release (MRT), muscle energy (MET), and soft tissue techniques (STT) on the HRMT of the corrugator supercilii (CS), superficial masseter (SM), and upper trapezius muscles (UT) in healthy subjects in Hamburg, Germany. Participants were randomised into three groups (1:1:1 allocation ratio) receiving treatment, according to different muscle-technique pairings, over the course of three sessions with one-week washout periods. We assessed the effect of osteopathic techniques on muscle tone (F), biomechanical (S, D), and viscoelastic properties (R, C) from baseline to follow-up (primary objective) and tested if specific muscle-technique pairs modulate the effect pre- to post-intervention (secondary objective) using the MyotonPRO (at rest). Ancillary, we investigate if these putative effects may differ between the sexes. Data were analysed using descriptive (mean, standard deviation, and quantiles) and inductive statistics (Bayesian ANOVA). 59 healthy participants were randomised into three groups and two subjects dropped out from one group (n = 20; n = 20; n = 19-2). The CS produced frequent measurement errors and was excluded from analysis. OMT significantly changed F (-0.163 [0.060]; p = 0.008), S (-3.060 [1.563]; p = 0.048), R (0.594 [0.141]; p < 0.001), and C (0.038 [0.017]; p = 0.028) but not D (0.011 [0.017]; p = 0.527). The effect was not significantly modulated by muscle-technique pairings (p > 0.05). Subgroup analysis revealed a significant sex-specific difference for F from baseline to follow-up. No adverse events were reported. OMT modified the HRMT in healthy subjects which may inform future research on MSDs. In detail, MRT, MET, and STT reduced the muscle tone (F), decreased biomechanical (S not D), and increased viscoelastic properties (R and C) of the SM and UT (CS was not measurable). However, the effect on HRMT was not modulated by muscle-technique interaction and showed sex-specific differences only for F.Trial registration German Clinical Trial Register (DRKS00020393).

The contribution of general medical conditions to the non-fatal burden of mental disorders: register-based cohort study in Denmark

BACKGROUND

General medical conditions (GMCs) often co-occur with mental and substance use disorders (MSDs).

AIMS

To explore the contribution of GMCs to the burden of disease in people with MSDs, and investigate how this varied by age.

METHOD

A population-based cohort of 6 988 507 persons living in Denmark during 2000-2015 followed for up to 16 years. Danish health registers were used to identify people with MSDs and GMCs. For each MSD, years lived with disability and health loss proportion (HeLP) were estimated for comorbid MSDs and GMCs, using a multiplicative model for disability weights.

RESULTS

Those with any MSD lost the equivalent of 43% of healthy life (HeLP = 0.43, 95% CI 0.40-0.44) after including information on GMCs, which was an increase from 25% before including GMCs (HeLP = 0.25, 95% CI 0.23-0.27). Schizophrenia was associated with the highest burden of disease (HeLP = 0.77, 95% CI 0.68-0.85). However, within each disorder, the relative contribution of MSDs and GMCs varied. For example, in those diagnosed with schizophrenia, MSDs and GMCs accounted for 86% and 14% of the total health loss; in contrast, in those with anxiety disorders, the same proportions were 59% and 41%. In general, HeLP increased with age, and was mainly associated with increasing rates of pulmonary, musculoskeletal and circulatory diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

In those with mental disorders, the relative contribution of comorbid GMCs to the non-fatal burden of disease increases with age. GMCs contribute substantially to the non-fatal burden of disease in those with MSDs.

Time Trend of Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 and Analysis Using an Age-Period-Cohort Model

The aim of this study was to investigate the upper gastrointestinal cancer incidence trend in China from 1990 to 2019 with Joinpoint software and to evaluate the age effect, cohort effect, and period effect using the age-period-cohort model, with the data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. The crude incidence rate (CR) of upper gastrointestinal cancer in China increased from 41.48/100,000 in 1990 to 62.64/100,000 in 2019, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) was 1.42 (p < 0.05). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 50.77/100,000 to 37.42/100,000, and the AAPC was -1.12 (p < 0.05). The net drift was -0.83 (p < 0.05), and the local drifts in the 35-79 age groups of males and all age groups of females were less than 0 (p < 0.05). The age effect showed that the upper gastrointestinal cancer onset risk gradually increased with age, the period effect was fundamentally manifested as a downward trend in onset risk after 2000, and the cohort effect indicated the decreased onset risk of the overall birth cohort after 1926. The ASIR of upper gastrointestinal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 showed a downward trend, and the onset risk indicated the age, period, and cohort effects.

The health care cost of comorbidity in individuals with mental disorders: A Danish register-based study

AIM

The aim of the study was to estimate the annual health care cost by number of comorbid mental and somatic disorders in persons with a mental disorder.

METHODS

All persons living in Denmark between 2004 and 2017 with a hospital diagnosis of a mental disorder were identified. We investigated the cost of different health care services: psychiatric hospitals, somatic hospitals, primary health care (e.g. general practitioners, psychologists and so on) and subsidised prescriptions. Within those with at least one mental disorder, we examined the costs for people with (a) counts of different types of mental disorders (e.g. exactly 1, exactly 2 and so on up to 8 or more) and (b) counts of different types of somatic disorders (e.g. no somatic disorders, exactly 1, exactly 2 and so on up to 15 or more). The estimates are reported in average cost per case and nationwide annual cost in Euro 2017.

RESULTS

In total, 447,209 persons (238,659 females and 208,550 males) were diagnosed with at least one mental disorder in the study period. The average annual health care cost per case and nationwide cost was 4471 Euros and 786 million Euro, respectively, for persons with exactly one mental disorder, and 33,273 Euro and 3.6 million Euro for persons with eight or more mental disorders. The annual health care cost was 4613 Euro per case and 386 million Euro for persons without any somatic disorders, while the cost per case was 16,344 Euro and 0.7 million Euro in nationwide cost for persons with 15 or more disorders. The amount and proportion of the different health care costs varied by type of comorbidity and count of disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

The annual health care cost per case was higher with increasing number of comorbid mental and somatic disorders, while the nationwide annual health care cost was lower with increasing number of comorbid disorders for persons with a mental disorder in Denmark.

Levels and Trends of Maternal Mortality and Morbidity by Cause in North Africa and Middle East, 1990 to 2019: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Since 1990, the maternal mortality significantly decreased at global scale as well as the North Africa and Middle East. However, estimates for mortality and morbidity by cause and age at national scale in this region are not available.

METHODS

This study is part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2019. Here we report maternal mortality and morbidity by age and cause across 21 countries in the region from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, maternal mortality ratio (MMR) dropped from 148.8 (129.6-171.2) to 94.3 (73.4-121.1) per 100000 live births in North Africa and Middle East. In 1990, MMR ranged from 6.0 (5.3-6.8) in Kuwait to 502.9 (375.2-655.3) per 100000 live births in Afghanistan. Respective figures for 2019 were 5.1 (4.0-6.4) in Kuwait to 269.9 (195.8-368.6) in Afghanistan. Percentages of deaths under 25 years was 26.0% in 1990 and 23.8% in 2019. Maternal hemorrhage, indirect maternal deaths, and other maternal disorders rank 1st to 3rd in the entire region. Ultimately, there was an evident decrease in MMR along with increase in socio-demographic index from 1990 to 2019 in all countries in the region and an evident convergence across nations.

CONCLUSION

MMR has significantly declined in the region since 1990 and only five countries (Afghanistan, Sudan, Yemen, Morocco, and Algeria) out of 21 nations didn't achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of 70 deaths per 100000 live births in 2019. Despite the convergence in trends, there are still disparities across countries.

Incidence, prevalence, and global burden of autism spectrum disorder from 1990 to 2019 across 204 countries

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) substantially contributes to the burden of mental disorders. Improved awareness and changes in diagnostic criteria of ASD may have influenced the diagnostic rates of ASD. However, while data on trends in diagnostic rates in some individual countries have been published, updated estimates of diagnostic rate trends and ASD-related disability at the global level are lacking. Here, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study data to address this gap, focusing on changes in prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ASD across the world. From 1990 to 2019, overall age-standardized estimates remained stable globally. Both prevalence and DALYs increased in countries with high socio-demographic index (SDI). However, the age-standardized incidence decreased in some low SDI countries, indicating a need to improve awareness. The male/female ratio decreased between 1990 and 2019, possibly accounted for by increasing clinical attention to ASD in females. Our results suggest that ASD detection in low SDI countries is suboptimal, and that ASD prevention/treatment in countries with high SDI should be improved, considering the increasing prevalence of the disorder. Additionally, growing attention is being paid to ASD diagnosis in females, who might have been left behind by ASD epidemiologic and clinical research previously. ASD burden estimates are underestimated as GBD does not account for mortality in ASD.

Disease control tools to secure animal and public health in a densely populated world

Animal health is a prerequisite for global health, economic development, food security, food quality, and poverty reduction, while mitigating against climate change and biodiversity loss. We did a qualitative review of 53 infectious diseases in terrestrial animals with data from DISCONTOOLS, a specialist database and prioritisation model focusing on research gaps for improving infectious disease control in animals. Many diseases do not have any appropriate control tools, but the prioritisation model suggests that we should focus international efforts on Nipah virus infection, African swine fever, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, peste des petits ruminants, sheeppox and goatpox, avian influenza, Rift Valley fever, foot and mouth disease, and bovine tuberculosis, for the greatest impact on the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. Easy to use and accurate diagnostics are available for many animal diseases. However, there is an urgent need for the development of stable and durable diagnostics that can differentiate infected animals from vaccinated animals, to exploit rapid technological advances, and to make diagnostics widely available and affordable. Veterinary vaccines are important for dealing with endemic, new, and emerging diseases. However, fundamental research is needed to improve the convenience of use and duration of immunity, and to establish performant marker vaccines. The largest gap in animal pharmaceuticals is the threat of pathogens developing resistance to available drugs, in particular for bacterial and parasitic (protozoal, helminth, and arthropod) pathogens. We propose and discuss five research priorities for animal health that will help to deliver a sustainable and healthy planet: vaccinology, antimicrobial resistance, climate mitigation and adaptation, digital health, and epidemic preparedness.

Non-Fatal Drowning Risk Prediction Based on Stacking Ensemble Algorithm

Drowning is a major public health problem and a leading cause of death in children living in developing countries. We seek better machine learning (ML) algorithms to provide a novel risk-assessment insight on non-fatal drowning prediction. The data on non-fatal drowning were collected in Qingyuan city, Guangdong Province, China. We developed four ML models to predict the non-fatal drowning risk, including a logistic regression model (LR), random forest model (RF), support vector machine model (SVM), and stacking-based model, on three primary learners (LR, RF, SVM). The area under the curve (AUC), F1 value, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated to evaluate the predictive ability of the different learning algorithms. This study included a total of 8390 children. Of those, 12.07% (1013) had experienced non-fatal drowning. We found the following risk factors are closely associated with the risk of non-fatal drowning: the frequency of swimming in open water, distance between the school and the surrounding open waters, swimming skills, personality (introvert) and relationality with family members. Compared to the other three base models, the stacking generalization model achieved a superior performance in the non-fatal drowning dataset (AUC = 0.741, sensitivity = 0.625, F1 value = 0.359, accuracy = 0.739 and specificity = 0.754). This study indicates that applying stacking ensemble algorithms in the non-fatal drowning dataset may outperform other ML models.

Evaluating the national system for rare diseases in China from the point of drug access: progress and challenges

Background

There are about 7000 rare diseases worldwide, of which only 5% of the diseases can be treated with medicines, showing that it’s important to improve patient access to orphan drugs. Recently, China has actively worked to set up a national system for rare diseases to improve the diagnosis and treatment capabilities and ensure the accessibility of drugs. However, the benefits of the system have yet not to be measured. This study aimed to provide an overview of orphan drug access based on the Compendium of China’s First List of Rare Diseases and National Network to Collaborate on Diagnosis and Treatment of Rare Diseases, expecting to map a blueprint for orphan drug access in China.

Methods

Framework of China’s national system for rare diseases was summarized. We surveyed the availability and affordability of 79 approved orphan drugs based on the Compendium of China’s First List of Rare Diseases in 30 leading provincial institutions from 2017 to 2020. The availability was measured annually at 3 levels (market, hospital and drug), and affordability was reflected by comparing costs of daily defined dose with per capita income of urban and rural residents, with the National Basic Medical Insurance considered.

Results

The market availability of orphan drugs in China showed an upward trend. As of 2020, the median hospital-level availability was 41.1% (increased by 1.5 times), highly available drugs increased by 16.5%. There were 64/74 orphan drugs that were affordable to rural/urban residents with the National Basic Medical Insurance considered (an increase of 14.1%), and the urban–rural gap of affordability ratio was narrowed (down by 6.0%). Comprehensive analysis showed the proportions of drugs with better availability and affordability in urban and rural areas by 2020 were 39.4% and 32.3%, respectively, which had increased but were still at a low level.

Conclusions

China’s national system for rare diseases has made great progress in orphan drug access, indicating that it’s been functioning under the joint reformation of medical treatment, medical insurance and medicines supply. The list of rare diseases will be updated and collaboration in networks will be enhanced to further improve the system.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13023-022-02507-2.

Long-term trends in the burden of inflammatory bowel disease in China over three decades: A joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2019

Background

To study the corresponding strategies to control inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), a comprehensive assessment of the disease burden is required. Herein, we present long-term trends in the burden of IBD in China over the last three decades, as well as its epidemiological features.

Methods

We characterized the burden of IBD in China using the GBD 2019 methods and results, based on prevalence, incidence, mortality, years lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated using the DisMod-MR 2-1. We also used joinpoint and age-period-cohort (apc) analysis methods to interpret IBD epidemiological characteristics and compare them to global prevalence trends.

Results

The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in both sexes changed from 1.47 (95% CI: 1.24, 1.74) to 3.01 (95% CI: 2.59, 3.50) and from 0.86 (95% CI: 0.59, 1.16) to 0.30 (95% CI: 0.24, 0.35) per 100,000 people in China from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized DALY rate in China decreased from 24.47 (95% CI: 17.88, 30.19) per 100,000 people in 1990 to 13.10 (95% CI: 10.29, 16.31) per 100,000 people in 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates for IBD in China were 2.51 (95% CI: 2.44, 2.57), 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41, 2.66), and -3.62 (95% CI: -3.85, -3.39). The effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates differed.

Conclusions

The increasing age-standardized prevalence rates are contributed to by the reduction in age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs, compounded by the rise in the age-standardized incidence rates between 1990 and 2019 in China. The burden of IBD in China will be a major public health challenge, given the country's large population base and aging population.

Characteristics and Patterns of Retention in Hypertension Care in Primary Care Settings From the Hypertension Treatment in Nigeria Program

BACKGROUND

More than 1.2 billion adults worldwide have hypertension. High retention in clinical care is essential for long-term management of hypertension, but 1-year retention rates are less than 50% in many resource-limited settings.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate short-term retention rates and associated factors among patients with hypertension in primary health care centers in the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cohort study, data were collected by trained study staff from adults aged 18 years or older at 60 public, primary health care centers in Nigeria between January 2020 and July 2021 as part of the Hypertension Treatment in Nigeria (HTN) Program. Patients with hypertension were registered.

EXPOSURES

Follow-up visit for hypertension care within 37 days of the registration visit.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was the 3-month rolling average 37-day retention rate in hypertension care, calculated by dividing the number of patients who had a follow-up visit within 37 days of their first (ie, registration) visit in the program by the total number of registered patients with hypertension during multiple consecutive 3-month periods. Interrupted time series analyses evaluated trends in retention rates before and after the intervention phase of the HTN Program. Mixed-effects, multivariable regression models evaluated associations between patient-, site-, and area council-level factors, hypertension treatment and control status, and 37-day retention rate.

RESULTS

In total, 10 686 patients (68.3% female; mean [SD] age, 48.8 [12.7] years) were included in the analysis. During the study period, the 3-month rolling average 37-day retention rate was 41% (95% CI, 37%-46%), with wide variability among sites. The retention rate was higher among patients who were older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.01 per year; 95% CI, 1.01-1.02 per year), were female (aOR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.23), had a higher body mass index (aOR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.02), were in the Kuje vs the Abaji area council (aOR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.25-4.04), received hypertension treatment at the registration visit (aOR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.07-1.50), and were registered during the postintervention period (aOR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.06-1.26).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings suggest that retention in hypertension care is suboptimal in primary health care centers in Nigeria, although large variability among sites was found. Potentially modifiable and nonmodifiable factors associated with retention were identified and may inform multilevel, contextualized implementation strategies to improve retention.

The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study

Background

Contrary to most developed economies, Hong Kong has reduced and eliminated taxes on beer and wine over the last 15 years and observed increasing alcohol consumption.

Methods

We applied econometric epidemiological modelling to assess the impact of reverting ad valorem taxation to pre-2008 levels (20% on wine and 40% on beer) on consumption and health outcomes. We used 15 years of industry sales and pricing data (2004-2018) to derive 25 own-price and cross-price elasticity estimates. We applied risk functions from the World Health Organization 2018 Global Status Report to assess the impact on 25 alcohol-attributable conditions.

Findings

An estimated 616 deaths (91.3% in men) were attributable to alcohol in 2018. Raising taxes to pre-2008 levels is estimated to reduce consumption of pure alcohol consumption by 8.0%, 15.9%, and 31.1%; and reduce alcohol-attributable deaths by 11.6%, 21.8%, and 40.2% assuming 25%, 50% and 100% pass through rates of taxes to consumers. The largest projected decreases in alcohol-attributable mortality in absolute numbers are alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, and alcoholic psychoses (wholly alcohol-attributable disorders). The largest absolute number of new alcohol-attributable cases in 2018 were hypertension, alcohol dependence and alcohol abuse; which are estimated to be reduced by 31.3%, 34.2%, and 34.3% respectively by raising taxes to pre-2008 levels. The alcohol-attributable health burden and absolute reductions in health harms are far greater in men.

Interpretation

Reversing the 2008 alcohol tax reductions is potentially effective in averting the alcohol-attributable health burden and thus mitigate against the avoidable harms of alcohol-related disease.

Funding

Health and Medical Research Fund, Food and Health Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR, China [03170067].

Maternal Mortality and Morbidity by Cause in Provinces of Iran, 1990 to 2019: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Since 1990, maternal mortality ratio (MMR) has significantly decreased in Iran. However, estimates for mortality and morbidity by cause at subnational scale are not available.

METHODS

This study is part of the Global Burden of Diseases study (GBD) 2019. Here we report maternal mortality and morbidity by age and cause across 31 provinces of Iran from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

Since 1990, MMR declined from 44.5 (95% UI: 38.6-50.1) to 15.9 (14.7-17.3) per 100000 live births in Iran. In 1990 MMR ranged from 18.5 (11.2-26.4) to 76.9 (38.4-114.7) per 100000 live births across provinces. Respective figures for 2019 were 7.1 (5.2-9.3) to 34.0 (25.1-44.7) per 100000 live births. In 2019, MMR was higher in young women (aged 10 to 14) and older women (aged 45 or more). Percentages of deaths under 25 years was 24.8% in 1990 and 16.0% in 2019. There was remarkable decline in years lost due to premature death (YLL) rates from 1990 to 2019. While the decline was modest for years lived with disability (YLD) rates. Indirect maternal deaths and other maternal deaths ranked first or second in almost all provinces. Ultimately, there was an evident decrease in MMR along with increase in socio-demographic Index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019 in all provinces and an evident convergence across provinces.

CONCLUSION

MMR has declined to levels much lower than Sustainable Development Goals in all provinces. Although there was a convergence in trends, there are still disparities across provinces. The decline in disabilities caused by maternal disorders is not as significant as mortality, which needs further actions.

Gender disparity and temporal trend of liver cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and predictions in a 25-year period

Objective

This study aims to reveal epidemiological features and trends of liver cancer (LC) in China.

Methods

We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease database 2019. Joinpoint regression was used to examine the temporal trend of LC. Future trends of LC were estimated using the Nordpred.

Results

The incidence, mortality, and disability-standardized life year (DALY) rate of LC declined in China from 1990 to 2019. Among >210,000 LC cases in 2019, the LC incidences were nearly 3.15 times higher in males than in females. LC cases and LC-associated deaths were mostly found among patients aged 65 to 69 years. The proportion of LC attributable to hepatitis B decreased over time, whereas the proportions of LC attributable to hepatitis C, alcohol use, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis increased modestly from 1990 to 2019. The majority of LC-associated deaths could be traced to four risk factors: smoking (20%), drug use (13.6%), alcohol use (11.7%), and high body mass index (10.1%). Based on the Nordpred prediction, there will be a steady decline in the incidence (39.0%) and mortality (38.3%) of liver cancer over a 25-year period from 2020 to 2044.

Conclusion

The disease burden of liver cancer in China has declined over the past 30 years. However, it remains important to control liver cancer among high-risk populations, especially elderly males with obesity, alcohol use, tobacco use, and/or drug abuse.

Long-Time Trend of Colorectal Cancer Mortality Attributable to High Processed Meat Intake in China and a Bayesian Projection from 2020 to 2030: A Model-Based Study

Colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer worldwide. Processed meat was known to be positively associated with a higher risk of gastrointestinal cancer. This study focused on the long-time trends of colorectal cancer mortality attributable to high processed meat intake in China from 1990 to 2019 and the projection for the next decade based on data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We used an age-period-cohort model to fit the long-time trend. The joinpoint model was conducted to estimate the average and annual change of the attributable mortality. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the crude attributable mortality from 2020 to 2030. An upward trend in colorectal cancer mortality attributable to high processed meat intake was observed for both sexes in China from 1990 to 2019, with an overall net drift of 4.009% for males and 2.491% for females per year. Projection analysis suggested that the burden of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality would still be high. Our findings suggested that colorectal cancer death attributable to high processed meat intake is still high in China, and elderly males were at higher risk. Gradually decreasing the intake of processed meat could be an effective way to reduce colorectal cancer mortality.

Visual impairments amongst preschool and school attendees: A scoping review of vision school screening in Nigeria and Kenya

Background: The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child emphasises the importance of quality education and good health. Vision problems affect the academic performance of schoolchildren in developing and under-resourced countries. The most prevalent vision problem amongst children is uncorrected refractive errors (URE).Aim: To gain knowledge about vision problems and visual impairments (VI) through school vision screening amongst children in Kenya and Nigeria.Method: A scoping review of online databases (Web of Science and PubMed) and one African registry (African Journals Online) for articles from January 2011 until April 2021 was conducted. The authors included 26 articles of the 439 screened.Results: The literature revealed inconsistencies in how VI was defined. The main cause of vision problems is URE. Furthermore, there is a lack of systematic school vision screening tools and programmes.Conclusion: Efficient eye care services to schoolchildren aged 3–18 years in Kenya and Nigeria must involve multiple disciplinary interventions and governmental responsibility. Collaboration models between public and private health sectors, nongovernmental organisations and families are necessary to prevent VI amongst children. Better vision enhances school performance.

Palliative Care for the Elderly in the Healthcare System: A Scoping Review

Objective: To map the scientific evidence related to the organization of palliative care practices provided for the elderly in the Healthcare System. Materials and methods: This is a scoping review following the Joanna Briggs Institute’s method. The search was conducted in the PubMed, Cinahl, Web of Science, Scopus, VHL/Lilacs, Embase, and Cochrane databases, identifying 1,150 articles managed using the Endnote software. After the selection, the study sample consisted of 12 articles. The data were organized in Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, submitted to descriptive analysis, and discussed with the literature. Results: The relevance of palliative care practices for older adults to be organized in the Healthcare System was noted, focusing on primary healthcare, at home, and interdisciplinary coordination. However, there is still a fragmented offer of this care with limited considerations regarding the challenges and possibilities of its effectiveness. Conclusions: The mapping of scientific evidence on the subject shows that discussions regarding the insertion of palliative care in the Healthcare System are modest. The studies explore the role of primary care as the organizer of these practices, although in a fragmented perspective, with limited coordination between the Healthcare System services.

Natural products from traditional medicine as promising agents targeting at different stages of oral biofilm development

Oral cavity is an ideal habitat for more than 1,000 species of microorganisms. The diverse oral microbes form biofilms over the hard and soft tissues in the oral cavity, affecting the oral ecological balance and the development of oral diseases, such as caries, apical periodontitis, and periodontitis. Currently, antibiotics are the primary agents against infectious diseases; however, the emergence of drug resistance and the disruption of oral microecology have challenged their applications. The discovery of new antibiotic-independent agents is a promising strategy against biofilm-induced infections. Natural products from traditional medicine have shown potential antibiofilm activities in the oral cavity with high safety, cost-effectiveness, and minimal adverse drug reactions. Aiming to highlight the importance and functions of natural products from traditional medicine against oral biofilms, here we summarized and discussed the antibiofilm effects of natural products targeting at different stages of the biofilm formation process, including adhesion, proliferation, maturation, and dispersion, and their effects on multi-species biofilms. The perspective of antibiofilm agents for oral infectious diseases to restore the balance of oral microecology is also discussed.

How Does Government Efficiency Affect Health Outcomes? The Empirical Evidence from 156 Countries

This paper uses the unbalanced panel data of 156 countries during the period of 2002 to 2018 to explore the possible impact of government efficiency on health outcomes. Firstly, we used the fixed-effect model to examine the relationship between government efficiency and health outcomes and found that the increase in government efficiency can significantly improve health outcomes. Then, a series of robustness checks were carried out, which confirmed the reliability of the above result. Thirdly, this paper conducted a heterogeneity analysis from the perspective of life cycle. Fourthly, this paper investigated the mechanisms of the impact of government efficiency on health outcomes from the perspectives of economic growth, health innovation, education and corruption control. Finally, this paper studied the moderating effects of the ruling party’s ideology and democracy on the relationship between government efficiency and health outcomes. The findings of this study provide some references for governments to improve health outcomes.

Health and sustainability co-benefits of eating behaviors: Towards a science of dietary eco-wellness

Two of the greatest challenges of our times - climate change and the linked epidemics of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease - are fueled in part by the over-consumption of carbon-intensive high calorie foodstuffs. Converging evidence from hundreds of studies has confirmed that transitioning from diets high in meat and dairy to largely plant-based diets not only is necessary for climate change mitigation but will also lead to substantive reductions in morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, there are only the faintest beginnings of a robust science of behavioral eco-wellness, defined here as the study of how individual choices, behaviors, and habits impact both personal health and environmental sustainability. This paper focusses on the sub-field of dietary eco-wellness, which looks at health and sustainability impacts of food production, procurement, preparation, and consumption. To advance this crucial agenda, investigators will need to invent, develop, and assess approaches aimed at helping people transition towards healthier and more sustainable diets. In order to accurately and reliably assess appropriate outcomes, existing assessment methods will need to be refined, new techniques will need to be advanced, and all measurement methods will need to be validated. Local conditions will influence the effectiveness of various approaches, and so it is important that scientists and communities share their stories of success and challenge for others to learn from. This paper reviews emerging evidence from relevant studies in dozens of countries, suggesting next steps, potential pathways, and a framework for interpretation.

Role of air pollution in systemic lupus erythematosus

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a complex autoimmune disease that can affect almost every organ in the human body. The etiology and pathogenesis are unclear. Recent studies have shown that pathogenesis and development of SLE result from the interaction between various internal and external factors. Current studies suggest that air pollution may increase the risk of SLE through multiple mechanisms such as inducing immune disorders, causing epigenetic changes, and inducing oxidative stress. Air pollution has a certain relationship with pulmonary interstitial lesions, lupus nephritis, decreased reproductive function and other system damages in SLE patients, and it is related to the occurrence and clinical outcomes of SLE. Air pollution has a potential role in the occurrence and development of SLE, providing a brand-new view on the early prevention and control of SLE.

Comparative Health Systems Analysis of Differences in the Catastrophic Health Expenditure Associated with Non-Communicable Versus Communicable Diseases Among Adults in Six Countries

The growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in low- and middle-income countries may have implications for health system performance in the area of financial risk protection, as measured by catastrophic health expenditure (CHE). We compare NCD CHE to the CHE cases caused by communicable diseases (CDs) across health systems to examine whether: (1) disease burden and CHE are linked, (2) NCD CHE disproportionately affects wealthier households and (3) whether the drivers of NCD CHE differ from the drivers of CD CHE. We used the Study on Global Aging and Adult Health survey, which captured nationally representative samples of 44 089 adults in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa. Using two-part regression and random forests, we estimated out-of-pocket spending and CHE by disease area. We compare the NCD share of CHE to the NCD share of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) or years of life lost to disability and death. We tested for differences between NCDs and CDs in the out-of-pocket costs per visit and the number of visits occurring before spending crosses the CHE threshold. NCD CHE increased with the NCD share of DALYs except in South Africa, where NCDs caused more than 50% of CHE cases but only 30% of DALYs. A larger share of households incurred CHE due to NCDs in the lowest than the highest wealth quintile. NCD CHE cases were more likely to be caused by five or more health care visits relative to communicable disease CHE cases in Ghana (P = 0.003), India (P = 0.004) and China (P = 0.093). Health system attributes play a key mediating factor in how disease burden translates into CHE by disease. Health systems must target the specific characteristics of CHE by disease area to bolster financial risk protection as the epidemiological transition proceeds.

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.

METHODS

Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.

FINDINGS

Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Secular trends in global burden of diabetes attributable to particulate matter pollution from 1990 to 2019

Increasing evidence suggests an association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, there is still a lack of comparative evaluation regarding diabetes burden due to ambient and indoor PM2.5 pollution at a global scale. This study attempts to provide a systematic and comprehensive profile for PM2.5-attributable burden of diabetes and its spatiotemporal trends, globally and regionally. Comparative estimates of diabetes attributable to ambient PM2.5 and household air pollution (HAP) from solid fuels for 204 countries and territories were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Globally, 292.5 (95% uncertainty interval: 207.1, 373.4) thousand deaths and 13.0 (9.1, 17.2) million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from diabetes were attributed to PM2.5 pollution in 2019, wherein more than two-thirds (67.3% deaths and 69.7% DALYs) were contributed by ambient PM2.5. Compared to 1990, age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) in 2019 attributable to ambient PM2.5 increased by 85.9% (APC: 2.21% [2.15, 2.27]), while HAP-associated ASDR decreased by 37.9% (APC: - 1.66% [- 1.82, - 1.50]). We observed a negative correlation between SDI and APC in ASMR (rs =  - 0.5, p < 0.001) and ASDR (rs = -0.4, p < 0.001) among 204 countries and territories. HAP-related diabetes experienced a sharp decline during 1990-2019, while global burden of diabetes attributable to ambient PM2.5 was rising rapidly. The elderly and people in low-SDI countries suffered from the greatest burden of diabetes due to PM2.5 pollution. More targeted interventions should be taken by governments to reduce PM2.5 exposure and related diabetes burden.

Global burden of musculoskeletal disorders and attributable factors in 204 countries and territories: a secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the global burden of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders, as well as the five common conditions, and their relevant risk factors from 1990 to 2019.

DESIGN

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 were used in this study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Individuals of all ages and genders from 204 countries and territories in 21 regions.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The outcomes were the numbers and age-standardised rates (ASRs) of incident cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of MSK disorders. The average annual percent changes (AAPCs) in the ASRs were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis to estimate the trends.

RESULTS

There were 322.75 million incident cases, 117.54 thousand deaths and 150.08 million DALYs of MSK disorders in 2019. The age-standardised incidence rate and age-standardised DALY rate in 2019 (incidence: AAPC=-0.32, 95% CI -0.34 to -0.31; DALYs: AAPC=-0.05, 95% CI -0.06 to -0.04) were lower than those in 1990. However, the age-standardised death rate showed a stable trend (AAPC 0.05, 95% CI -0.05 to 0.15) from 1990 to 2019. The peak age of onset and DALYs of MSK disorders was 50-54 years in 2019. The burden of MSK disorders in females was much higher than that in males (1.29 times more incident cases, 2.24 times more deaths and 1.45 times more DALYs in females than in males). A significant negative correlation was observed between the AAPCs in the ASRs and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) score. Occupational risk exhibited the highest contribution to MSK disorders, and tobacco use and high body mass index were also major risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that the burden of MSK disorders tends to be lower in high-SDI regions than in lower-SDI regions. Strengthening the effectiveness of preventive measures against occupational risks may reduce the burden of MSK disorders.

The protective effects of curcumin on metabolic syndrome and its components: In-silico analysis for genes, transcription factors, and microRNAs involved

BACKGROUND

We aimed to identify the molecular mechanisms behind curcumin's therapeutic benefits for metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components.

METHODS

The Comparative Toxicogenomics Database, MIENTURNET, Metascape, GeneMania, and Cytoscape software were critical analytic tools.

RESULTS

Curcumin may have therapeutic effects on MetS and its components via the following genes: NOS3, IL6, INS, and ADIPOQ, particularly PPARG. Curcumin has higher docking scores than other genes with INS and PPARG (docking scores: -8.3 and -5.8, respectively). Physical interactions (56%) were found to be the most prevalent for dyslipidemia, co-expression for hypertension, obesity, T2DM, and MetS. "Galanin receptor pathway", "lipid particles composition", "IL-18 signaling pathway", "response to extracellular stimulus", and "insulin resistance" were listed in the first of the key pathways for MetS, dyslipidemia, hypertension, obesity, and diabetes, respectively. The protein-protein interaction enrichment analysis study also identified "vitamin B12 metabolism," "folate metabolism," and "selenium micronutrient network" as three major molecular pathways linked to MetS targeted by curcumin. PPARG was the key transcription factor that regulated practically all curcumin-targeted genes linked to MetS and its components. Curcumin targeted hsa-miR-155-5p, which has been linked to T2DM, hypertension, and MetS, as well as hsa-miR-130b-3p and hsa-miR-22-3p, which have been linked to dyslipidemia and obesity, respectively. In silico, sponges that regulated hsa-miR-155-5p were developed and evaluated. Curcumin, MetS, and its components have been found to target adipocytes, cardiac myocytes, smooth muscle, the liver, and pancreas. Curcumin's physicochemical properties and pharmacokinetics are closely connected with its therapeutic advantages in MetS and its components due to its high gastrointestinal absorption, drug-likeness, water solubility, and lipophilic nature. Curcumin is a CYP1A9 and CYP3A4 inhibitor. Although curcumin has a low bioavailability, it can be synthesized and administered to increase its pharmacokinetic features.

CONCLUSIONS

Curcumin needs to undergo therapeutic optimization and further study into its pharmacological structure before it can be used to treat MetS and its components.

Trends in the disease burden of HBV and HCV infection in China from 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to reveal the 30-year dynamics of HBV and HCV disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

HBV/HCV data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease database. Joinpoint regression was used to examine temporal trends. Age-period-cohort models were applied to evaluate effects of patient age, period, and cohort on HBV/HCV-associated mortality and incidences.

RESULTS

A dramatic decrease in the disease burden of HBV was found from 1990 to 2019, but the disease burden of HCV has remained stable since 2000. Patient age, period, and cohort exerted a significant effect on the diseases burden of HBV and HCV infection. Compared with females, males had a higher risk of HBV/HCV infections as well as HBV/HCV-associated mortality and liver cancer. Overweight, alcohol, tobacco and drug use were important risk factors associated with HBV/HCV-associated liver cancer. The incidences of HBV- and HCV-associated liver cancer from 2019 to 2044 are expected to decrease by 39.4% and 33.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The disease burden of HBV/HCV infection has decreased in China over the past 30 years, but HBV incidences remain high, especially in males. Effective management of HBV and HCV infections is still needed for high-risk populations.

Global Burden of Female Breast Cancer: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Incidence Trends From 1990 to 2019 and Forecasts for 2035

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to describe the latest epidemiology of female breast cancer globally, analyze the change pattern of the incidence rates and the disease's association with age, period, and birth cohort, and subsequently present a forecast of breast cancer incidence.

METHODS

Data for analysis were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 and World Population Prospects 2019 revision by the United Nations (UN). We described the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) from 1990 to 2019 and then calculated the relative risks of period and cohort using an age-period-cohort model, and predicted the trends of ASIRs to 2035.

RESULTS

In 2019, the global incidence of breast cancer in women increased to 1,977,212 (95% uncertainty interval = 1 807 615 to 2 145 215), with an ASIR of 45.86 (41.91 to 49.76) per 100 000 person-year. Among the six selected countries facing burdensome ASIRs, only the USA showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019, whereas the others showed an increasing or stable trend. The overall net drift was similar in Japan (1.78%), India (1.66%), and Russia (1.27%), reflecting increasing morbidity from 1990 to 2019. The increase in morbidity was particularly striking in China (2.60%) and not significant in Germany (0.42%). The ASIRs were predicted to continue to increase globally, from 45.26 in 2010 to 47.36 in 2035. In most countries and regions, the age specific incidence rate is the highest in those aged over 70 years and will increase in all age groups until 2035. In high-income regions, the age specific incidence rates are expected to decline in women aged over 50 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The global burden of female breast cancer is becoming more serious, especially in developing countries. Raising awareness of the risk factors and prevention strategies for female breast cancer is necessary to reduce future burden.

Secular Trend in the Incidence of Conduct Disorder in China from 1990 to 2019: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to analyze the secular trends of conduct disorder (CD) incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 under the joinpoint analysis and the age-period-cohort framework.

METHODS

The sex-specific incidence rates of CD from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database according to the age group. The joinpoint regression and the age-period-cohort model were conducted using the average annual percent changes and relative risks as size effects, respectively.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized rates (ASRs) of CD incidence showed an overall increasing trend in both sexes, and this variation trend was observed in almost all age groups. The annual sex-specific ASRs were lower in China than those worldwide but were rapidly growing. Age effects were the most significant risk factor for CD, with the highest risk in adolescents aged 10 to 14 years, followed by children aged 5 to 9 years, but a relatively lower risk in adolescents aged 15 to 19 years than in other age groups. However, period and cohort effects were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

CD incidence rates in China have been increasing in both sexes from 1990 to 2019. Further studies are necessary to explain the etiology of these increases and promote the early identification of individuals at risk for developing CD.

The global disease burden of varicella-zoster virus infection from 1990 to 2019

Data on the global epidemiology of varicella-zoster virus infection (VZVI) is limited. This study aimed to investigate the burden of VZVI based on the global burden of disease study 2019 data. The age-standardized rates, including the incidence, death, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) of VZVI were calculated to evaluate the disease burden of VZVI. The global numbers of incident and death cases due to VZVI were 83 963 744 and 14 553, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate of VZVI increased slightly all over the world, while the age-standardized death and DALYs rate decreased from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC = -2.31 and -1.61, respectively). The younger age (<5 years old) and older groups had the highest VZVI burden. The high sociodemographic index (SDI) region had the highest age-standardized incidence rates in 2019 (1236.28/100 000, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1156.66-1335.50) and the low SDI region had the lowest incidence (1111.24/100 000, 95% UI: 1040.46-1209.55). The age-standardized death and DALYs rate of VZVI decreased with the increase of SDI. Amongst the 21 geographical regions, the high-income Asia-Pacific (1269.08/100 000) region had the highest age-standardized incidence rate in 2019, while Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardized death and DALYs rate. The global incidence of VZVI has continued to increase in the past 3 decades, while the age-standardized death and DALYs rates have decreased. More attention should be paid to the younger and older population, as well as low SDI regions.

Association between Daily Pattern of Physical Activity and Depression: A Systematic Review

Recent research suggested that daily pattern of physical activity (PA) may have an important association with depression, but findings are limited and contradictory. Our aim was to conduct a systematic review of the literature to summarize the literature evidence on the association between timing of PA and depression. A comprehensive search of PubMed/Medline and Scopus databases has been performed, and a total of five manuscripts have been thoroughly reviewed. The performed descriptive analysis shows lower levels of PA among individuals with depression or depressive symptoms, although evidence on the 24 h pattern of PA and depression is limited. An interesting finding is the association between lower PA during the morning, higher PA late in the evening (night), and depression or depressive symptoms. However, definitive conclusions could not be drawn due to the observational nature of the studies, their limited number, the high heterogeneity in the sample populations, and the studies’ differing outcome definitions and exposure assessments. Future studies considering not only the level of PA but also its daily variability might be important to further explore this novel area of research.

Cancer incidence and mortality and risk factors in member countries of the " Belt and Road " initiative

BACKGROUND

At present, "Belt and Road" ("B&R") member states (accounting for about 61.78% of the world's population) face different types of cancer threats to varying degrees. We analyzed the incidence and mortality and risk factors of cancer in the member countries of the "B&R" to explore the basis of health and medical cooperation between countries and provide a foundation for formulating cancer prevention and control policies for building a healthy "B&R."

METHODS

Data were derived from the Global Cancer Observatory and Cancer Country Profiles in 2020. Incidence and mortality were age-standardized rates (ASRs). Population attributable fractions (PAFs) was applied to measure risk factors of cancers in the "B&R" countries. The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was calculated by dividing the mortality rate by the incidence rate.

RESULTS

A total of 26 cancers were included in the study. Lung, breast, colorectal, stomach, liver, prostate, cervical, esophageal, thyroid, and uterine cancers were the most common and highest in age-standardized mortality in the "B&R" countries. For men, Hungary had the highest cancer age-standardized incidence and mortality (ASR, 289.3 per 100,000 and ASR, 235.7 per 100,000, respectively), followed by Latvia (ASR, 288.6 per 100,000 and ASR, 196.5 per 100,000, respectively). In females, the highest incidence rates were estimated in Greece (ASR, 238.7 per 100,000), and the highest mortality rate was Brunei (ASR, 192.3 per 100,000). All countries were in the middle or high HDI range, with about half (46.88%) of countries achieving high HDI, mostly in Central and Eastern Europe (13 countries) and West Asia (10 countries). The United Arab Emirates had the highest MIR in male and female (1.59 vs 2.19). Tobacco products, infectious factors, and ultraviolet rays were the three main cancer risk factors in the "B&R" countries.

CONCLUSION

The overall burden of cancer in the countries along the "B&R" remains substantial, while the corresponding cancer prevention and control policies need to be improved. Strengthening health cooperation among member countries will contribute to a joint response to the risks and challenges posed by cancer.

The cost of mental disorders in Denmark: a register-based study

The aim of the study was to undertake a detailed analysis of healthcare cost, public transfer payments, and income loss associated with a broad range of mental disorders in Denmark. Based on all persons living in Denmark, we identified those with a hospital diagnosis of one of 18 types of mental disorders and 10 age- and sex-matched controls per case. For each mental disorder, the outcomes were nationwide totals, cost per case, and cost per capita, investigated by sex, age strata, and the number of years after diagnosis. We found a substantial annual income loss of 5 billion Euros and excess healthcare cost of 1 billion Euros for persons with any mental disorder. Each mental disorder was associated with an income loss, excess healthcare cost, and excess public transfer payments compared to matched controls. An interactive data visualisation site with summary data is available at https://nbepi.com/cost .

The spatiotemporal dynamics of lung cancer: 30-year trends of epidemiology across 204 countries and territories

BACKGROUND

It has been established that lung cancer is the leading cause of all cancer deaths. This study sought to analyze the epidemiological trends of lung cancer over the past 30 years worldwide.

METHODS

Estimates, including the global, regional, national prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of lung cancer from 1990 to 2019, were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics in cases and age-standardized rates (ASR). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to evaluate the variation in ASR. Besides, estimates of age-sex specific prevalence, decomposition analysis for incident cases, and correlation analysis of the EAPC were conducted in our study.

RESULTS

Globally, the ASR of lung cancer prevalence, incidence and YLDs in 2019 were 38.84/100,000 persons, 27.66/100,000 persons, and 6.62/100,000 persons, respectively. Over the past 30 years, the ASR of incidence (EAPC = -0.09) decreased, although that of prevalence (EAPC = 0.51) and YLDs (EAPC = 0.03) increased. The global prevalence counts was greater in males than females at all age groups and increased with age, peaking in the 65-69 age group for both sexes. The increase in incidence was mainly attributed to population aging. For YLDs, EAPC was negatively correlated with the human development index (p = 0.0008) and ASR (p < 0.0001) in 1990 across nation-level units.

CONCLUSIONS

Lung cancer remains a major public health issue globally, warranting the implementation of scientific and effective measures in different countries and territories to control it.

Plant-based food patterns to stimulate muscle protein synthesis and support muscle mass in humans: a narrative review

The interest in a diet with a higher proportion of plant-based foods to animal-based foods is a global food pattern trend. However, there are concerns regarding adopting plants as the main dietary protein source to support muscle protein synthesis and muscle mass. These concerns are centred on three issues: lower protein bioavailability due to antinutritional compounds in plants, lower per-serve scores of protein at similar energy intake, and amino acid scores of plants being lower than optimal. We aimed here to synthesize and discuss evidence around plant protein in human nutrition focusing on the capacity of these proteins to stimulate muscle protein synthesis as a key part of gaining or maintaining muscle mass. In this review, we address the issues of plant protein quality and provide evidence for how plant proteins can be made more effective to stimulate muscle protein synthesis and support muscle mass in partial or total replacement of consumption of products of animal origin. Novelty: ● Plant proteins are known, in general, to have lower protein quality scores than animal proteins, and this may have important implications, especially for those aiming to increase their skeletal muscle mass through exercise. ● A plant-based diet has been postulated to have lower protein quality limiting MPS responses and potentially compromising exercise-induced gains in muscle mass. ● Current evidence shows that plant proteins can stimulate MPS, as can whole foods, especially when combining food groups, increasing portion sizes, and optimizing amino acid bioavailability through processing or common preparation methods.

Health system performance in Iran: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Better evaluation of existing health programmes, appropriate policy making against emerging health threats, and reducing inequalities in Iran rely on a comprehensive national and subnational breakdown of the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors.

METHODS

In this systematic analysis, we present the national and subnational estimates of the burden of disease in Iran using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We report trends in demographics, all-cause and cause-specific mortality, as well as years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by major diseases and risk factors. A multi-intervention segmented-regression model was used to explore the overall impact of health sector changes and sanctions. For this analysis, we used a variety of sources and reports, including vital registration, census, and survey data to provide estimates of mortality and morbidity at the national and subnational level in Iran.

FINDINGS

Iran, which had 84·3 million inhabitants in 2019, had a life expectancy of 79·6 years (95% uncertainty interval 79·2-79·9) in female individuals and 76·1 (75·6-76·5) in male individuals, an increase compared with 1990. The number of DALYs remained stable and reached 19·8 million (17·3-22·6) in 2019, of which 78·1% were caused by non-communicable diseases (NCDs) compared with 43·0% in 1990. During the study period, age-standardised DALY rates and YLL rates decreased considerably; however, YLDs remained nearly constant. The share of age-standardised YLDs contributing to the DALY rate steadily increased to 44·5% by 2019. With regard to the DALY rates of different provinces, inequalities were decreasing. From 1990 to 2019, although the number of DALYs attributed to all risk factors decreased by 16·8%, deaths attributable to all risk factors substantially grew by 43·8%. The regression results revealed a significant negative association between sanctions and health status.

INTERPRETATION

The Iranian health-care system is encountering NCDs as its new challenge, which necessitates a coordinated multisectoral approach. Although the Iranian health-care system has been successful to some extent in controlling mortality, it has overlooked the burden of morbidity and need for rehabilitation. We did not capture alleviation of the burden of diseases in Iran following the 2004 and 2014 health sector reforms; however, the sanctions were associated with deaths of Iranians caused by NCDs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global Burden, Incidence and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for Dermatitis: A Systematic Analysis Combined With Socioeconomic Development Status, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Dermatitis is an important global health problem that not only affects social interaction and physical and mental health but also causes economic burden. Health problems or distress caused by dermatitis may be easily overlooked, and relevant epidemiological data are limited. Therefore, a better understanding of the burden of dermatitis is necessary for developing global intervention strategies.

METHODS

All data on dermatitis, including atopic dermatitis (AD), contact dermatitis (CD) and seborrhoeic dermatitis (SD), were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD2019) database. The extracted age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rates (ASDR) data were analysed by stratification, including by sex, country or region, and sociodemographic index (SDI) indicators. Finally, we analysed the correlation between the global burden of dermatitis and socioeconomic development status.

RESULTS

According to the GBD 2019 estimate, the ASIR and ASDR for the three major types of dermatitis in 2019 were 5244.3988 (95% CI 4551.7244-5979.3176) per 100,000 person-years and 131.6711 (95% CI 77.5876-206.8796) per 100,000 person-years. The ASIR and ASDR of atopic dermatitis, contact dermatitis and seborrhoeic dermatitis are: Incidence (95%CI,per 100,000 person-years), 327.91 (312.76-343.67), 3066.04 (2405.38-3755.38), 1850.44 (1706.25- 1993.74); DALYs (95%CI, per 100,000 person-years), 99.69 (53.09-167.43), 28.06 (17.62-41.78), 3.93 (2.24-6.25). In addition, among the three dermatitis types, the greatest burden was associated with AD. According to the ASDR from 1990 to 2019, the burden of dermatitis has exhibited a slow downward trend in recent years. In 2019, the ASIR showed that the USA had the greatest burden, while the ASDR showed that Asian countries (such as Japan, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan) and some European countries (France, Estonia) had the greatest burden. According to SDI stratification and the three major dermatitis types, high ASIR and ASDR corresponded to high SDI areas (especially for AD).

CONCLUSION

The burden of dermatitis is related to socioeconomic development status, especially for AD, which is positively correlated with the SDI. The results based on GBD2019 data are valuable for formulating policy, preventing and treating dermatitis and reducing the global burden of dermatitis.

Precision Public Health for Non-communicable Diseases: An Emerging Strategic Roadmap and Multinational Use Cases

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) remain the largest global public health threat. The emerging field of precision public health (PPH) offers a transformative opportunity to capitalize on digital health data to create an agile, responsive and data-driven public health system to actively prevent NCDs. Using learnings from digital health, our aim is to propose a vision toward PPH for NCDs across three horizons of digital health transformation: Horizon 1—digital public health workflows; Horizon 2—population health data and analytics; Horizon 3—precision public health. This perspective provides a high-level strategic roadmap for public health practitioners and policymakers, health system stakeholders and researchers to achieving PPH for NCDs. Two multinational use cases are presented to contextualize our roadmap in pragmatic action: ESP and RiskScape (USA), a mature PPH platform for multiple NCDs, and PopHQ (Australia), a proof-of-concept population health informatics tool to monitor and prevent obesity. Our intent is to provide a strategic foundation to guide new health policy, investment and research in the rapidly emerging but nascent area of PPH to reduce the public health burden of NCDs.

Asthma in the Americas: An Update: A Joint Perspective from the Brazilian Thoracic Society, Canadian Thoracic Society, Latin American Thoracic Society, and American Thoracic Society

Asthma affects a large number of people living in the Americas, a vast and diverse geographic region comprising 35 nations in the Caribbean and North, Central, and South America. The marked variability in the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality from asthma across and within nations in the Americas offers a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of the risk factors and management of asthma phenotypes and endotypes in children and adults. Moreover, a better assessment of the causes and treatment of asthma in less economically developed regions in the Americas would help diagnose and treat individuals migrating from those areas to Canada and the United States. In this focused review, we first assess the epidemiology of asthma, review known and potential risk factors, and examine commonalities and differences in asthma management across the Americas. We then discuss future directions in research and health policies to improve the prevention, diagnosis, and management of pediatric and adult asthma in the Americas, including standardized and periodic assessment of asthma burden across the region; large-scale longitudinal studies including omics and comprehensive environmental data on racially and ethnically diverse populations; and dissemination and implementation of guidelines for asthma management across the spectrum of disease severity. New initiatives should recognize differences in socioeconomic development and health care systems across the region while paying particular attention to novel or more impactful risk factors for asthma in the Americas, including indoor pollutants such as biomass fuel, tobacco use, infectious agents and the microbiome, and psychosocial stressor and chronic stress.

Toward a third term of Health Japan 21 - implications from the rise in non-communicable disease burden and highly preventable risk factors

In 2000, the Japanese government launched the National Health Promotion Movement known as Health Japan 21 (HJ21), a 13-year national health promotion policy (2000-2012) aimed at preventing and controlling non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and their underlying risk factors. After the revision in 2013 (2013-2023), the target NCDs and risk factors are being reviewed and a new strategy for the third term of HJ21 is going to be discussed. Using the latest findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, this paper highlights NCDs that continue to increase health losses and preventable metabolic and behavioural risk factors. These NCDs and risk factors are associated with an increased risk of serious illness and death from the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The third term of HJ21 will be formulated during the continuing threat of acute health crises like the current COVID-19 pandemic and thus offers an important opportunity to renew public health efforts to halt the growing burden of NCDs in Japan. This article may serve as one of the roadmaps for the formulation of the third term of HJ21.

Data sources for precision public health of obesity: a scoping review, evidence map and use case in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND

Global action to reduce obesity prevalence requires digital transformation of the public health sector to enable precision public health (PPH). Useable data for PPH of obesity is yet to be identified, collated and appraised and there is currently no accepted approach to creating this single source of truth. This scoping review aims to address this globally generic problem by using the State of Queensland (Australia) (population > 5 million) as a use case to determine (1) availability of primary data sources usable for PPH for obesity (2) quality of identified sources (3) general implications for public health policymakers.

METHODS

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses extension for scoping reviews (PRISMA-ScR) was followed. Unique search strategies were implemented for 'designed' (e.g. surveys) and 'organic' (e.g. electronic health records) data sources. Only primary sources of data (with stratification to Queensland) with evidence-based determinants of obesity were included. Primary data source type, availability, sample size, frequency of collection and coverage of determinants of obesity were extracted and curated into an evidence map. Data source quality was qualitatively assessed.

RESULTS

We identified 38 primary sources of preventive data for obesity: 33 designed and 5 organic. Most designed sources were survey (n 20) or administrative (n 10) sources and publicly available but generally were not contemporaneous (> 2 years old) and had small sample sizes (10-100 k) relative to organic sources (> 1 M). Organic sources were identified as the electronic medical record (ieMR), wearables, environmental (Google Maps, Crime Map) and billing/claims. Data on social, biomedical and behavioural determinants of obesity typically co-occurred across sources. Environmental and commercial data was sparse and interpreted as low quality. One organic source (ieMR) was highly contemporaneous (routinely updated), had a large sample size (5 M) and represented all determinants of obesity but is not currently used for public health decision-making in Queensland.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides a (1) comprehensive data map for PPH for obesity in Queensland and (2) globally translatable framework to identify, collate and appraise primary data sources to advance PPH for obesity and other noncommunicable diseases. Significant challenges must be addressed to achieve PPH, including: using designed and organic data harmoniously, digital infrastructure for high-quality organic data, and the ethical and social implications of using consumer-centred health data to improve public health.

Recent progress of collagen, chitosan, alginate and other hydrogels in skin repair and wound dressing applications

Human understanding of skin is constantly ongoing. Great progress has been made in skin repair, wound dressing regeneration biomaterials research in recent years. This review introduced the clinical research and guiding principles of skin repair, wound dressing biomaterials at home and abroad, introduced the classification of various skin repair and wound dressing, listed the composition and performance of different dressing biomaterials, including traditional, natural, synthetic, tissue-engineered dressing materials were extensively reviewed. The biological molecular structures and biological function characteristics of different dressing biomaterials are comprehensively reviewed. Collagen, chitosan, alginate hydrogels et al. as the most popular biological macromolecules in skin repair and wound dressing applications were reviewed. The future development direction is also prospected. This paper reviews the research progress of advanced functional skin repair and wound dressing, which provides a reference for the modifications and applications of wound dressings.

Global Burden of Rheumatic Heart Disease and its Association with Socioeconomic Development Status, 1990-2019

AIMS

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains an important health issue, yet global attention to RHD is diminishing. The aim of this study was to investigate the global burden of RHD and its relationship with socioeconomic development status.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. Incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and deaths numbers and rates for RHD were extracted and stratified by sex, level of socio-demographic index (SDI), country, and territory. In addition, the burden of RHD was compared across age groups. From 1990-2019, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of RHD increased by 14.4% (11.2%-17.0%) and 13.8% (11.0%-16.0%), respectively. Incidence and prevalence rates showed an increasing trend in low SDI and low-middle SDI locations, while high-middle SDI and high SDI locations showed a decreasing trend. The age-standardized DALYs and deaths rates of RHD decreased by 53.1% (46.4-60.0) and 56.9% (49.8%-64.7%), and this downward trend more prominent in high-middle SDI and middle SDI locations. In addition, the age of incidence and prevalence rate were concentrated between 5-24 years and 15-49 years, predominantly in poor regions, and RHD appeared to be more common in women than in men.

CONCLUSION

The burden of RHD is negatively correlated with socioeconomic development status. In particular, the burden of RHD among children, adolescents, and women of childbearing age in poorer regions requires more attention. Policymakers should use the 2019 GBD data to guide cost-effective interventions and resource allocation for RHD.

Trends and patterns of disparities in diabetes and chronic kidney disease mortality among US counties, 1980-2014

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes and chronic kidney diseases are associated with a large health burden in the USA and globally.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Validated small area estimation models were applied to de-identified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the census bureau, NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database to estimate county-level mortality rates from 1980 to 2014 from diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease (CKD).

EXPOSURES

County of residence.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Age-standardized mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cause.

RESULTS

Between 1980 and 2014, 2,067,805 deaths due to diabetes were recorded in the USA. The mortality rate due to diabetes increased by 33.6% (95% UI: 26.5%-41.3%) between 1980 and 2000 and then declined by 26.4% (95% UI: 22.8%-30.0%) between 2000 and 2014. Counties with very high mortality rates were found along the southern half of the Mississippi river and in parts of South and North Dakota, while very low rates were observed in central Colorado, and select counties in the Midwest, California, and southern Florida. A total of 1,659,045 deaths due to CKD were recorded between 1980 and 2014 (477,332 due to diabetes mellitus, 1,056,150 due to hypertension, 122,795 due to glomerulonephritis, and 2,768 due to other causes). CKD mortality varied among counties with very low mortality rates observed in central Colorado as well as some counties in southern Florida, California, and Great Plains states. High mortality rates from CKD were observed in counties throughout much of the Deep South, and a cluster of counties with particularly high rates was observed around the Mississippi river.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study found large inequalities in diabetes and CKD mortality among US counties. The findings provide insights into the root causes of this variation and call for improvements in risk factors, access to medical care, and quality of medical care.

Global prevalence of resilience in healthcare professionals: A systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression

AIMS

This review aims to examine the prevalence estimate of low resilience among healthcare professionals and identify the factors affecting the prevalence.

BACKGROUND

Healthcare professionals experience high levels of stress. Understanding the healthcare professionals' resilience may provide an insight into how they perform in a highly stressed environment. Evaluation A comprehensive search of 11 databases was conducted. Studies that provided prevalence rates for low resilience among healthcare professionals working in a healthcare setting were included. Meta-analyses, sensitivity, subgroup analyses and meta-regression were conducted.

KEY ISSUES

Among 27,720 studies, 41 studies (N = 17,073) across 16 countries were included. The prevalence of low resilience was 26% (95% CI: 20-32). Subgroup analyses indicated that types of resilience measures affect resilience prevalence significantly. A higher prevalence of low resilience was observed among allied health professions during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Middle East.

CONCLUSIONS

This review indicated the prevalence of low resilience and type of resilience measurement instruments that affected the prevalence.

IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING MANAGEMENT

This review provides a roadmap to design tailored, discipline-specific, and sustainable resilience training for nurses. Nursing managers should monitor the working hours and workload of nursing staffing in order to provide a protective working environment.