Cardiovascular risk and events in 17 low-, middle-, and high-income countries

CVD risk factors and surrogate markers - Urban-rural differences

Aims: Disparity in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and risk factor levels between urban and rural regions has been confirmed worldwide. The aim of this study was to examine how living in different community types (urban-rural) in childhood and adulthood are related to cardiovascular risk factors and surrogate markers of CVD such as carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and left ventricular mass (LVM). Methods: The study population comprised 2903 participants (54.1% female, mean age 10.5 years in 1980) of the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study who had been clinically examined in 1980 (age 3-18 years) and had participated in at least one adult follow-up (2001-2011). Results: In adulthood, urban residents had lower systolic blood pressure (-1 mmHg), LDL-cholesterol (-0.05 mmol/l), lower body mass index (-1.0 kg/m²) and glycosylated haemoglobin levels (-0.05 mmol/mol), and lower prevalence of metabolic syndrome (19.9 v. 23.7%) than their rural counterparts. In addition, participants continuously living in urban areas had significantly lower IMT (-0.01 mm), LVM (1.59 g/m^2.7) and pulse wave velocity (-0.22 m/s) and higher carotid artery compliance (0.07%/10 mmHg) compared to persistently rural residents. The differences in surrogate markers of CVD were only partially attenuated when adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions: Participants living in urban communities had a more favourable cardiovascular risk factor profile than rural residents. Furthermore, participants continuously living in urban areas had less subclinical markers related to CVD compared with participants living in rural areas. Urban-rural differences in cardiovascular health might provide important opportunities for optimizing prevention by targeting areas of highest need.

Primary prevention of ischaemic heart disease: populations, individuals, and health professionals

Ischaemic heart disease has a multifactorial aetiology and can be prevented from developing in populations primordially, and in individuals at high risk by primary prevention. The primordial approach focuses on social determinants of health in populations: political, economic, and social factors, principally unplanned urbanisation, illiteracy, poverty, and working and living conditions. Implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals can lead to major improvements in cardiovascular health, and adequate health-care financing and universal health care are important for achieving these goals. Population-level interventions should focus on tobacco control, promotion of healthy foods (fruits, vegetables, legumes, and nuts), curbing unhealthy foods (saturated fats, trans fats, refined carbohydrates, excessive salt, and alcohol), promotion of physical activity in everyday living, and control of ambient and indoor pollution. At the individual level, identification of people at high multifactorial risk and guideline-driven management of hypertension, LDL cholesterol, and diabetes is required. Strategies to improve adherence to healthy lifestyles and drug therapies are essential and can be implemented at health system, health care, and patient levels with use of education, technology, and personalised approaches. Improving quality of medical education with a focus on ischaemic heart disease prevention for physicians, nurses, allied health workers, and the public is required.

Social determinants of hypertension and type-2 diabetes in Kenya: A latent class analysis of a nationally representative sample

Introduction

Cardiovascular disease is among the leading causes of death in Kenya and type II diabetes (T2D) is a growing chronic health concern in the country. However, a gap exists in examining how demographic and social characteristics coalesce to identify individuals at high risk for hypertension and/or T2D in Kenya. The current study examined demographic typologies associated with self-report diagnoses.

Methods

Nationally representative cross-sectional study using 43,898 individuals from the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2014. Main Outcome Measures were self-reported Hypertension and Type 2 Diabetes diagnosis. Descriptive analyses were conducted using STATA 14. Latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted using Mplus 7.4.

Results

Approximately 5% reported hypertension and 1% reported T2D. Latent class analysis suggested a 4-class solution. The class with the highest likelihood to report previous diagnosis of hypertension (10.4%), consisted of high proportion of married adult women. The second highest prevalence of previous diagnosis of hypertension (4.4%) consisted of a high proportion of married middle aged men with high probability of being smokers. The results suggest that Kenyan women over 30 years may be at increased risk of hypertension compared to men. Future studies should include additional socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics to better understand gender differences in correlates for hypertension to be used for targeted and tailored health promotion-interventions.

Current status of stroke in Qatar: Including data from the BRAINS study

Background

Qatar is located on the north-eastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula. Qatari natives account for less than 15% of the population while the largest migrant group comprising 60% derives from South Asia. Despite projections that stroke burden in Qatar will increase with population ageing, epidemiological studies focusing on stroke in Qatar are relatively scarce.

Method

We reviewed the available epidemiological publications relating to Qatar. In addition, we have added to this knowledge by incorporating Qatari data from the on-going Bio-Repository of DNA in Stroke, an independent multinational database of stroke patients.

Results

Qatar has low reported incidence and mortality rates of 58 and 9.17 per 100,000 per year, respectively, which may be explained by its middle-aged migrant worker majority population. Correspondingly, South Asian migrants in Qatar suffered younger strokes than Qatari natives (48.7 vs 63.4 years, P < 0.001). Among the most common risk factors identified in stroke patients were hypertension (77.9%), diabetes (43.8%) and hypercholesterolemia (28.5%). Ischaemic stroke was the most frequent subtype amongst migrant South Asians (71.1%). The majority of stroke cases had computed tomography and/or magnetic resonance imaging scans, but only 11.1% of ischaemic strokes were thrombolysed. Qataris on one-year follow up were more often found to have died (6.5% vs 0.3%) and had further stroke/transient ischaemic attack events (17.4% vs 6.4%, P = 0.009) compared to South Asians.

Conclusion

The burden of stroke is increasing in Qatar, and considerable disparities are observed between the native and migrant populations which likely will require different approaches to management by its healthcare system.

Cardiovascular Diseases in India Compared With the United States

This review describes trends in the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and risk factors in India compared with the United States; provides potential explanations for these differences; and describes strategies to improve cardiovascular health behaviors, systems, and policies in India. The prevalence of CVD in India has risen over the past 2 decades due to population growth, aging, and a stable age-adjusted CVD mortality rate. Over the same time period, the United States has experienced an overall decline in age-adjusted CVD mortality, although the trend has begun to plateau. These improvements in CVD mortality in the United States are largely due to favorable population-level risk factor trends, specifically with regard to tobacco use, cholesterol, and blood pressure, although improvements in secondary prevention and acute care have also contributed. To realize similar gains in reducing premature death and disability from CVD, India needs to implement population-level policies while strengthening and integrating its local, regional, and national health systems. Achieving universal health coverage that includes financial risk protection should remain a goal to help all Indians realize their right to health.

Women's and healthcare providers' perceptions of long-term complications associated with hypertension and diabetes in pregnancy: a qualitative study

Objectives

A diagnosis of hypertensive disorders during pregnancy (HDPs) or gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is highly predictive of women at increased risk of developing chronic hypertension, Type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. This study investigates perceptions of women and healthcare providers in rural India regarding these long‐term risks.

Design

Qualitative study using modified grounded theory.

Setting

Two states in rural India: Haryana and Andhra Pradesh.

Population

Pregnant and postpartum women, community health workers (CHWs), primary care physicians, obstetricians, laboratory technicians, and healthcare officials.

Methods

In‐depth interviews and focus group discussions explored: (1) priorities for high‐risk pregnant women; (2) detection and management of HDPs and GDM; (3) postpartum management, and (4) knowledge of long‐term sequelae of high‐risk conditions. A thematic analysis was undertaken.

Results

Seven focus group discussions and 11 in‐depth interviews (n = 71 participants) were performed. The key priority area for high‐risk pregnant women was anaemia. Blood pressure measurement was routinely embedded in antenatal care; however, postpartum follow up and knowledge of the long‐term complications were limited. GDM was not considered a common problem, although significant variations and challenges to GDM screening were identified. Knowledge of the long‐term sequelae of GDM with regard to an increased risk of Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease among doctors was minimal.

Conclusions

There is a need for improved education, standardisation of testing and postpartum follow up of HDPs and GDM in rural Indian settings.

Funding

SN is supported by an MRC Clinical Research Training Fellowship (MR/R017182/1). The George Institute for Global Health Global Women's Health programme provided financial support for the research assistant and fieldwork costs in India.

Tweetable abstract

Improved education and postpartum care of women with hypertension and diabetes in pregnancy in rural India are needed to prevent long‐term risks.

Improved education and postpartum care of women with hypertension and diabetes in pregnancy in rural India are needed to prevent long‐term risks.

Socioeconomic inequalities in non-communicable disease risk factors in Botswana: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The debate on socioeconomic inequalities in health dominates the research and policy agenda of many countries. The prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is on the rise in recent years in Botswana. As a prevention and policy effort, the study provided an empirical evidence on socioeconomic inequalities in NCD risk factors in Botswana.

METHODS

Data used in this study was derived from a cross sectional survey on chronic non communicable diseases in Botswana conducted in 2016. The survey adopted a multistage sampling design and a sample of 1178 participants (males and females) aged 15 years and above was selected in both urban and rural areas of Botswana. The inequality analysis was conducted employing decomposition analysis using ADePT software version 6. Logistic regression models were used to show the association between NCD risk factors and socioeconomic status using SPSS version 25.

RESULTS

Concentration indices showed that poor physical activity (CI = 0.0546), alcohol consumption (CI = 0.1859) and overweight/obesity (CI = 0.038) were more concentrated among the non-poor while daily smoking (CI = - 0.0308) and poor fruit/vegetable consumption (CI = - 0.1909) were more concentrated among the poor. Wealth status was observed to be the leading contributor to socioeconomic inequality for daily smoking, poor fruit/vegetable consumption, overweight/obesity and poor physical activity. Education was the leading contributor to socioeconomic inequality for alcohol consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings in this study indicate the need for concerted differential efforts to address the needs of the poor and non-poor in order to reduce NCD risk factor inequalities.

Advances in tissue engineering of nanocellulose-based scaffolds: A review

Scaffolds based on nanocellulose (NC) have crucial applications in tissue engineering (TE) owing to the biocompatibility, water absorption, water retention, optical transparency, and chemo-mechanical properties. In this review, we summarize the scaffolds based on nanocellulose, including nanocrystalline cellulose and nanofibrillated cellulose. We compare four representative methods to prepare NC-based scaffolds, containing electrospinning, freeze-drying, 3D printing, and solvent casting. We outline the characteristics of scaffolds obtained by different methods. Our focus is on the applications of NC-based scaffolds to repair, improve or replace damaged tissues and organs, including skin, blood vessel, nerve, skeletal muscle, heart, liver, and ophthalmology. NC-based scaffolds are attractive materials for regeneration of different tissues and organs due to the remarkable features. Finally, we propose the challenges and potentials of NC-based TE scaffolds.

Geographical Variations in Patients with Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction: A Sub-Group Analysis of the APOLLON Registry

Background:

Clinical characteristics of patients with heart failure may vary geographically. However, limited data are available regarding the geographical differences of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction.

Aims:

The present subgroup analysis aims to investigate the geographical differences in clinical characteristics, management, and primary etiology of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction in Turkey.

Study Design:

A cross-sectional study.

Methods:

A comPrehensive, ObservationaL registry of heart faiLure with mid-range and preserved ejection fractiON (APOLLON) is a multicenter and observational study conducted in seven regions of Turkey (NCT03026114). The present study is a post-hoc analysis of the APOLLON registry. In this substudy, we compared the clinical characteristics of 819 consecutive patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (mean age, 67 years; 57.8% women) admitted to cardiology outpatient units in different geographical regions.

Results:

Based on the geographical distribution of the entire Turkish population, the highest number of patients enrolled were from Marmara (271 patients, 33.1%). All demographical characteristics, clinical and laboratory findings, comorbidities, primary etiology, and medications prescribed were significantly different between the regions. Furthermore, inter-regional gender differences were identified. Comparatively, the Aegean and Mediterranean regions had older patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (p<0.001), and the Black Sea, Southeast, and East Anatolia regions had predominantly male patients (51.2, 54.5, and 56.9%, respectively; p=0.002). Notably, the Mediterranean and Southeast Anatolia had more symptomatic patients, and history of hospitalization for heart failure was more prevalent in Southeast Anatolia (33.3%, p<0.001). Prevalence of atrial fibrillation was higher in the Mediterranean and Southeast Anatolia regions (51 and 48.5%, p<0.001), and patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction had a higher prevalence of hypertension in the Mediterranean, Southeast Anatolia, and Black Sea regions (p=0.002). Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors were more frequently prescribed in East Anatolia (52.3%, p=0.001), and the prevalence of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction using loop diuretics (48.8%, p=0.003) was higher in the Black Sea region.

Conclusion:

This study was the first to show geographical differences in clinical characteristics of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction in Turkey. Determination of the clinical characteristics of the heart failure and preserved ejection fraction population based on the geographical region may enables physicians to adopt a region-specific clinical approach toward heart failure and preserved ejection fraction.

NLRP3 inflammasome as a potential treatment in ischemic stroke concomitant with diabetes

The NLRP3 (nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-like receptor [NLR] family pyrin domain-containing 3) inflammasome is a member of the NLR family of innate immune cell sensors. These are crucial regulators of cytokine secretions, which promote ischemic cell death and insulin resistance. This review summarizes recent progress regarding the NLRP3 inflammasome as a potential treatment for ischemic stroke in patients with diabetes, two complicated diseases that often occur together. Stroke worsens glucose metabolism abnormalities, and the outcomes after stroke are more serious for diabetic patients compared with those without diabetes. Inflammation contributes to organ injury after ischemic stroke and diabetes. Recent research has focused on inhibiting the activation of inflammasomes and thus reducing the maturation of proinflammatory cytokines such as interleukin (IL)-1β and IL-18. Studies suggest that inhibition of NLRP3 prevents or alleviates both ischemic stroke and diabetes. Targeting against the assembly and activity of the NLRP3 inflammasome is a potential and novel therapy for inflammasome-associated diseases, including ischemic stroke concomitant with diabetes.

Epidemiology, risk factors, and opportunities for prevention of cardiovascular disease in individuals of South Asian ethnicity living in Europe

South Asian (SA) individuals represent a large, growing population in a number of European countries. These individuals, particularly first-generation SA immigrants, are at higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes, atherogenic dyslipidaemia, and coronary heart disease than most other racial/ethnic groups living in Europe. SAs also have an increased risk of stroke compared to European-born individuals. Despite a large body of conclusive evidence, SA-specific cardiovascular health promotion and preventive interventions are currently scarce in most European countries, as well as at the European Union level. In this narrative review, we aim to increase awareness among clinicians and healthcare authorities of the public health importance of cardiovascular disease among SAs living in Europe, as well as the need for tailored interventions targeting this group - particularly, in countries where SA immigration is a recent phenomenon. To this purpose, we review key studies on the epidemiology and risk factors of cardiovascular disease in SAs living in the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and other European countries. Building on these, we discuss potential opportunities for multi-level, targeted, tailored cardiovascular prevention strategies. Because lifestyle interventions often face important cultural barriers in SAs, particularly for first-generation immigrants; we also discuss features that may help maximise the effectiveness of those interventions. Finally, we evaluate knowledge gaps, currently available risk stratification tools such as QRISK-3, and future directions in this important field.

Prediction of 24-hour sodium excretion from spot urine samples in South African adults: a comparison of four equations

Repeated 24-hour urine collection is considered to be the gold standard for assessing salt intake. This is often impractical in large-population studies, especially in low-middle-income countries. Equations to estimate 24-hour urinary salt excretion from a spot urine sample have been developed, but have not been widely validated in African populations. This study aimed to systematically assess the validity of four existing equations to predict 24-hour urinary sodium excretion (24UNa) from spot urine samples in a nationally representative sample of South Africans. Spot and 24-hour urine samples were collected in a subsample (n = 438) of participants from the World Health Organisation Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) Wave 2 in South Africa in 2015. Measured 24UNa values were compared with predicted 24UNa values from the Kawasaki, Tanaka, INTERSALT and Mage equations using Bland-Altman plots. In this subsample (mean age 52.8 ± 16.4 years; body mass index 30.2 ± 8.2 kg/m²; 76% female; 73% black African; 42% hypertensive), all four equations produced a significantly different population estimate compared with the measured median value of 6.7 g salt/day (IQR 4.4-10.5). Although INTERSALT underestimated salt intake (-3.77 g/d; -1.64 to -7.09), the other equations overestimated by 1.28 g/d (-3.52; 1.97), 6.24 g/d (2.22; 9.45), and 17.18 g/d (8.42; 31.96) for Tanaka, Kawasaki, and Mage, respectively. Bland-Altman curves indicated unacceptably wide levels of agreement. Use of these equations to estimate population level salt intake from spot urine samples in South Africans is not recommended.

Strengthening and measuring research impact in global health: lessons from applying the FAIT framework

Background

To date, efforts to measure impact have largely focused on health research in high-income countries, reflecting where the majority of health research funding is spent. Nevertheless, there is a growing body of health and medical research being undertaken in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), supported by both development aid and established research funders. The Framework to Assess the Impact of Translational health research (FAIT) combines three approaches to measuring research impact (Payback, economic assessment and case study narrative). Its aim is to strengthen the focus on translation and impact measurement in health research. FAIT has been used by several Australian research initiatives; however, it has not been used in LMICs. Our aim was to apply FAIT in an LMIC context and evaluate its utility.

Methods

We retrospectively applied all three FAIT methods to two LMIC studies using available data, supplemented with group discussion and further economic analyses. Results were presented in a scorecard format.

Results

FAIT helped clarify pathways of impact for the projects and provided new knowledge on areas of impact in several domains, including capacity-building for research, policy development and economic impact. However, there were constraints, particularly associated with calculating the return on investment in the LMIC context. The case study narrative provided a layperson’s summary of the research that helped to explain outcomes and succinctly communicate lessons learnt.

Conclusion

Use of FAIT to assess the impact of LMIC research was both feasible and useful. We make recommendations related to prospective use, identification of metrics to support use of the Payback framework, and simplification of the economic assessment, which may facilitate further application in LMIC environments.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12961-019-0451-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Association of Hemoglobin and Blood Pressure in a Chinese Community-Dwelling Population

This study investigated the relationship between hemoglobin (Hb) level and blood pressure in a Chinese community-dwelling population with normal glucose metabolism. Hb, fasting plasma glucose, glycated Hb A1c, hepatic and renal function, lipid, electrolytes, and anthropometric parameters were measured. Hb level was found to be positively correlated with systolic (SBP; r = 0.075, p < 0.001) and diastolic (DBP; r = 0.272, p < 0.001) blood pressure in the cohort. The relationship was not affected by age, BMI, serum creatinine (Cr), and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) in both males and females. Multivariate stepwise regression showed that age (β = 0.556, p < 0.001), BMI (β = 1.107, < 0.001), Hb (β = 0.082, p < 0.001), Cr (β = -0.032, p < 0.001), and LDL (β = 1.023, p < 0.001) were independent factors for SBP, and Hb (β = 0.168, p < 0.001), BMI (β = 0.519, p = 0.001), and LDL (β = 0.331, p < 0.001) for DBP. Hb level is positively associated with both SBP and DBP in a Chinese community-dwelling population with normal glucose metabolism.

Aspirin for primary prevention: Is this the end of the road?

Aspirin is one of the oldest and most commonly used cardiovascular drugs. Despite there being high-quality evidence supporting the use of aspirin for patients with known cardiovascular disease, a definitive consensus regarding its use for patients at risk for cardiovascular disease (and without established cardiovascular disease) has never been reached. Many randomized control trials have produced conflicting results, and consequently, society guidelines have issued differring recommendations. Three major trials were published in 2018, which supplement the existing data on aspirin's role in primary prevention and provide further guidance on this contentious issue. This article reviews the history of aspirin through the last two decades, with special emphasis on these new trials.

Health Effects of Household Solid Fuel Use: Findings from 11 Countries within the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology Study

BACKGROUND

Household air pollution (HAP) from solid fuel use for cooking affects 2.5 billion individuals globally and may contribute substantially to disease burden. However, few prospective studies have assessed the impact of HAP on mortality and cardiorespiratory disease.

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to evaluate associations between HAP and mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and respiratory disease in the prospective urban and rural epidemiology (PURE) study.

METHODS

We studied 91,350 adults 35–70 y of age from 467 urban and rural communities in 11 countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe). After a median follow-up period of 9.1 y, we recorded 6,595 deaths, 5,472 incident cases of CVD (CVD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure), and 2,436 incident cases of respiratory disease (respiratory death or nonfatal chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pulmonary tuberculosis, pneumonia, or lung cancer). We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for individual, household, and community-level characteristics to compare events for individuals living in households that used solid fuels for cooking to those using electricity or gas.

RESULTS

We found that 41.8% of participants lived in households using solid fuels as their primary cooking fuel. Compared with electricity or gas, solid fuel use was associated with fully adjusted hazard ratios of 1.12 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.21) for all-cause mortality, 1.08 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.17) for fatal or nonfatal CVD, 1.14 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.30) for fatal or nonfatal respiratory disease, and 1.12 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.19) for mortality from any cause or the first incidence of a nonfatal cardiorespiratory outcome. Associations persisted in extensive sensitivity analyses, but small differences were observed across study regions and across individual and household characteristics.

DISCUSSION

Use of solid fuels for cooking is a risk factor for mortality and cardiorespiratory disease. Continued efforts to replace solid fuels with cleaner alternatives are needed to reduce premature mortality and morbidity in developing countries. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3915.

The effects of mobile health interventions on lipid profiles among patients with metabolic syndrome and related disorders: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

OBJECTIVE

The current systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was conducted to summarize the effect of mobile health (m-health) interventions on lipid profiles among patients with metabolic syndrome and related disorders.

METHODS

Cochrane Library, EMBASE, PubMed, and Web of Science databases were searched to indentify the relevant randomized clinical trials published up April 30^th, 2018. Two reviewers examined study eligibility, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias of included clinical trials, individually. Heterogeneity was measured using I-square (I²) statistic and Cochran's Q test. Data were pooled the standardized mean difference (SMD) effect size by the random-effect model.

RESULTS

18 trials of 1681 citations were identified to be appropriate for the current meta-analysis. Findings random-effects model indicated that m-health interventions significantly decreased total- (SMD -0.54; 95% CI, -1.05, -0.03) and LDL-cholesterol levels (SMD -0.66; 95% CI, -1.18, -0.15). M-health interventions had no significant effect on triglycerides (SMD -0.14; 95% CI, -0.56, 0.28) and HDL-cholesterol levels (SMD -0.35; 95% CI, -0.81, 0.11).

CONCLUSION

Overall, the current meta-analysis demonstrated that m-health interventions resulted in an improvement in total- and LDL-cholesterol, but did not affect triglycerides and HDL-cholesterol levels.

Dietary Patterns Are Associated with Predicted 10-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Among Ghanaian Populations: the Research on Obesity and Diabetes in African Migrants (RODAM) Study

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan African populations are disproportionately affected by cardiovascular disease (CVD). Although diet is an important lifestyle factor associated with CVD, evidence on the relation between dietary patterns (DPs) and CVD risk among sub-Saharan African populations is limited.

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the associations of DPs with estimated 10-y atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in Ghanaian adults in Ghana and Europe.

METHODS

Three DPs ('mixed'; 'rice, pasta, meat, and fish'; and 'roots, tubers, and plantain') were derived by principal component analysis (PCA) based on intake frequencies obtained by a self-administered Food Propensity Questionnaire in the multi-center, cross-sectional RODAM (Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants) study. The 10-y ASCVD risk was estimated using the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) for 2976 subjects, aged 40-70 y; a risk score ≥7.5% was defined as 'elevated' ASCVD risk. The associations of DPs with 10-y ASCVD risk were determined using Poisson regression with robust variance.

RESULTS

Stronger adherence to a 'mixed' DP was associated with a lower predicted 10-y ASCVD in urban and rural Ghana and a higher 10-y ASCVD in Europe. The observed associations were attenuated after adjustment for possible confounders with the exception of urban Ghana (prevalence ratio [PR] for Quintile 5 compared with 1: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.53, 0.93, P-trend = 0.013). The 'rice, pasta, meat, and fish' DP was inversely associated with 10-y ASCVD across all study sites, with the adjusted effect being significant only in urban Ghana. A 'roots, tubers, and plantain' DP was directly associated with increased 10-y ASCVD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to 'mixed' and 'rice, pasta, meat, and fish' DPs appears to reduce predicted 10-y ASCVD risk in adults in urban Ghana. Further investigations are needed to understand the underlying contextual-level mechanisms that influence dietary habits and to support context-specific dietary recommendations for CVD prevention among sub-Saharan African populations.

A multinational observational study assessing insulin use: Understanding the determinants associated with progression of therapy

AIMS

To describe global patterns of insulin treatment and to assess the impact of patient, provider, health system and economic influences on treatment decisions for patients with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

This prospective cohort study of insulin-treated patients with T2D was conducted across 18 countries categorized as high, upper-middle or lower-middle income regions. Information collected from patients included knowledge of diabetes, experiences and interactions with their healthcare provider. Physician information included specialty, practice size, availability of diabetes support services, volume of diabetes patients treated and time spent per patient. Physicians determined an individualized haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) target for each patient by the start of the study. Changes in T2D therapies and HbA1c were recorded for 2 years.

RESULTS

Complete treatment data were available for 2528 patients. Median age was 61 years and median duration of diabetes was 11.4 years. Changes to treatment regimen occurred in 90.0% of patients, but changes were less common in countries with a higher economic status (P < 0.001). Most treatment changes involved insulin, with changes in dose the most common. Overall predictors of change in insulin therapy included younger age, use of any insulin regimen other than basal only, higher mean baseline HbA1c and longer duration of T2D. HbA1c levels remained constant regardless of regional economic status. At baseline, 20.6% of patients were at their HbA1c target; at 2 years this was 26.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

Among insulin-treated patients with T2D, treatment changes were common; however, only approximately one-fourth of individuals achieved their HbA1c target.

Statin Use in Primary Prevention: A Simple Trial-Based Approach Compared With Guideline-Recommended Risk Algorithms for Selection of Eligible Patients

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease risk assessment tools help identify individuals likely to benefit from preventative therapies. In this study we compared outcomes using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) risk algorithm and the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) tool in the Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation (HOPE)-3 study.

METHODS

We compared outcomes using the ACC/AHA algorithm and the FRS with those seen in HOPE-3, which randomized participants to 10 mg rosuvastatin or placebo. The first coprimary outcome was the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke; second coprimary outcome additionally included heart failure, cardiac arrest, and revascularization.

RESULTS

Relative risks using risk scores were similar to those observed in the HOPE-3. Hazards ratios for the first coprimary outcome according to risk categories of ≤ 10%, 10%-20%, and ≥ 20% using the ACC/AHA algorithm were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.53-1.28), 0.72 (95% CI, 0.53-0.96), and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.55-0.93), and absolute risk reduction (ARR) of 0.18%, 1.33%, and 1.85%, respectively, over a median of 5.6 years. Corresponding results using the FRS were 0.69 (95% CI, 0.36-1.35), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.52-1.01), and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.60- 0.94); and ARR of 1.32%, 0.61%, and 1.43%. Hazard ratios for the second coprimary outcome were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.51-1.14), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.56-0.95), and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.58-0.94); and ARR of 0.36%, 1.49%, and 1.85%, using the ACC/AHA algorithm and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.41-1.41), 0.70 (95% CI, 0.52-0.95), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.62-0.94); and ARR of 1.08%, 0.83%, and 1.56% using the FRS.

CONCLUSIONS

The pragmatic HOPE-3 trial approach identifies in an ethnically diverse primary prevention population individuals at intermediate risk who benefit from statin therapy using simple clinical characteristics without the need for complex, currently used risk assessment tools.

Age-Related Whole-Brain Structural Changes in Relation to Cardiovascular Risks Across the Adult Age Spectrum

Background: The brain atrophy and lesion index (BALI) has been developed to assess whole-brain structural deficits that are commonly seen on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in aging. It is unclear whether such changes can be detected at younger ages and how they might relate to other exposures. Here, we investigate how BALI scores, and the subcategories that make the total score, compare across adulthood and whether they are related to the level of cardiovascular risks, in both young and old adulthood. Methods: Data were from 229 subjects (72% men; 24-80 years of age) whose annual health evaluation included a routine anatomical MRI examination. A BALI score was generated for each subject from T2-weighted MRI. Differences in the BALI total score and categorical subscores were examined by age and by the level of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs). Regression analysis was used to evaluate relationships between continuous variables. Relative risk ratios (RRRs) of CVRF on BALI were examined using a multinomial logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the classification accuracy. Results: Nearly 90% of the participants had at least one CVRF. Mean CVRF scores increased with age (slope = 0.03; r = 0.36, 95% confidence intervals: 0.23-0.48; p < 0.001). The BALI total score was closely related to age (slope = 0.18; r = 0.69, 95% confidence intervals: 0.59-0.78; p < 0.001), as so were the categorical subscores (r's = 0.41-0.61, p < 0.001); each differed by the number of CVRF (t-test: 4.16-14.83, χ 2: 6.9-43.9, p's < 0.050). Multivariate analyses adjusted for age and sex suggested an independent impact of age and the CVRF on the BALI score (for each year of advanced age, RRR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.11-1.29; for each additional CVRF, RRR = 3.63, 95% CI = 2.12-6.23). The CVRF and BALI association remained significant even in younger adults. Conclusion: The accumulation of MRI-detectable structural brain deficits can be evident from young adulthood. Age and the number of CVFR are independently associated with BALI score. Further research is needed to understand the extent to which other age-related health deficits can increase the risk of abnormalities in brain structure and function, and how these, with BALI scores, relate to cognition.

Socioeconomic status and risk of cardiovascular disease in 20 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiologic (PURE) study

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic status is associated with differences in risk factors for cardiovascular disease incidence and outcomes, including mortality. However, it is unclear whether the associations between cardiovascular disease and common measures of socioeconomic status-wealth and education-differ among high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries, and, if so, why these differences exist. We explored the association between education and household wealth and cardiovascular disease and mortality to assess which marker is the stronger predictor of outcomes, and examined whether any differences in cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic status parallel differences in risk factor levels or differences in management.

METHODS

In this large-scale prospective cohort study, we recruited adults aged between 35 years and 70 years from 367 urban and 302 rural communities in 20 countries. We collected data on families and households in two questionnaires, and data on cardiovascular risk factors in a third questionnaire, which was supplemented with physical examination. We assessed socioeconomic status using education and a household wealth index. Education was categorised as no or primary school education only, secondary school education, or higher education, defined as completion of trade school, college, or university. Household wealth, calculated at the household level and with household data, was defined by an index on the basis of ownership of assets and housing characteristics. Primary outcomes were major cardiovascular disease (a composite of cardiovascular deaths, strokes, myocardial infarction, and heart failure), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Information on specific events was obtained from participants or their family.

FINDINGS

Recruitment to the study began on Jan 12, 2001, with most participants enrolled between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2014. 160 299 (87·9%) of 182 375 participants with baseline data had available follow-up event data and were eligible for inclusion. After exclusion of 6130 (3·8%) participants without complete baseline or follow-up data, 154 169 individuals remained for analysis, from five low-income, 11 middle-income, and four high-income countries. Participants were followed-up for a mean of 7·5 years. Major cardiovascular events were more common among those with low levels of education in all types of country studied, but much more so in low-income countries. After adjustment for wealth and other factors, the HR (low level of education vs high level of education) was 1·23 (95% CI 0·96-1·58) for high-income countries, 1·59 (1·42-1·78) in middle-income countries, and 2·23 (1·79-2·77) in low-income countries (p_interaction<0·0001). We observed similar results for all-cause mortality, with HRs of 1·50 (1·14-1·98) for high-income countries, 1·80 (1·58-2·06) in middle-income countries, and 2·76 (2·29-3·31) in low-income countries (p_interaction<0·0001). By contrast, we found no or weak associations between wealth and these two outcomes. Differences in outcomes between educational groups were not explained by differences in risk factors, which decreased as the level of education increased in high-income countries, but increased as the level of education increased in low-income countries (p_interaction<0·0001). Medical care (eg, management of hypertension, diabetes, and secondary prevention) seemed to play an important part in adverse cardiovascular disease outcomes because such care is likely to be poorer in people with the lowest levels of education compared to those with higher levels of education in low-income countries; however, we observed less marked differences in care based on level of education in middle-income countries and no or minor differences in high-income countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although people with a lower level of education in low-income and middle-income countries have higher incidence of and mortality from cardiovascular disease, they have better overall risk factor profiles. However, these individuals have markedly poorer health care. Policies to reduce health inequities globally must include strategies to overcome barriers to care, especially for those with lower levels of education.

FUNDING

Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Socioeconomic factors and mortality due to cerebrovascular and hypertensive disease in Brazil

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE

Socioeconomic factors may affect mortality due to cerebrovascular diseases (CBVDs), hypertensive diseases (HYPDs), and circulatory system diseases (CSDs). This study aimed to assess the association between the Human Development Index (HDI) and the extent of supplementary health coverage and mortality due to these diseases in the Brazilian Federative Units (FUs) between 2004 and 2013.

METHODS

The Municipal HDI (MHDI) scores of each FU for 2000 and 2010 were retrieved from the Atlas Brasil website, and supplementary health coverage data for the period 2004-2013 were obtained from the national regulatory agency for private health insurance. Population and mortality data were obtained from the website of the Department of Information Technology of the Unified Health System (DATASUS). Mortality rates were weighted by ill-defined causes of death and standardized by age.

RESULTS

The MHDI increased between 2000 and 2010 in all FUs, in half of which it was 0.7 or higher. Supplementary health coverage increased in the country during the study period and was inversely associated with mortality due to CSDs and CBVDs between 2004 and 2013. Mortality due to CBVDs and HYPD in 2013 showed an inverse linear association with the MHDI in 2000.

CONCLUSION

Mortality due to CSDs, CBVDs, and HYPDs was influenced by socioeconomic factors. There was a significant inverse association between socioeconomic factors and mortality due to CSDs, CBVDs, and HYPDs. Plans to reduce mortality due to these diseases should include measures to foster economic development and reduce inequality.

Medium and long-term follow-up after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in a sub-Saharan Africa population: a prospective cohort study

Background

Major in-hospital mortality rate in patients with ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) in Sub-Saharan Africa has been reported. Data on follow-up in these patients with STEMI are scarce. We aimed to assess medium and long-term prognosis in patients with STEMI admitted to Abidjan Heart Institute.

Methods

Prospective cohort study including 260 patients admitted for STEMI to Abidjan Heart Institute, from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2015. We compared mortality and nonfatal cardiovascular complications in revascularized and non-revascularized groups. Survival curve was generated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Predictors of mortality after STEMI were determined by multivariable Cox regression.

Results

Of the 260 patients followed up on a median period of 39 months [28–68 months], 94 patients (36.1%) were revascularized and 166 (63.8%) were non-revascularized. Crude all-cause mortality was 10.4%. It was significantly higher in non-revascularized patients (p = 0.04). There was no difference in the occurrence of nonfatal cardiovascular complications in the 2 groups. In multivariable Cox regression, age ≥ 70 years, female gender and heart failure were the predictive factors for death after adjustment.

Conclusions

STEMI remains an important cause of mortality in our practice. Healthcare policies should be developed to improve patient care and long-term outcomes.

The use of echocardiographic and clinical data recorded on admission to simplify decision making for elective percutaneous coronary intervention: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease (CAD), a leading cause of mortality, affects patient health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Elective percutaneous coronary interventions (ePCIs) are usually performed to improve HRQoL of CAD patients. The aim of this study was to design models using admission data to predict the outcomes of the ePCI treatments on the patients' HRQoL.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study was conducted with CAD patients who underwent ePCIs at the King Abdullah University Hospital in Jordan from January 2014 through May 2015. Six months after their ePCI procedures, the participants completed the improved MacNew (QLMI-2) questionnaire, which was used for evaluating three domains (physical, emotional and social) of HRQoL. Multivariate linear regression was used to design models to predict the three domains of HRQoL from echocardiographic findings and clinical data that are routinely measured on admission.

RESULTS

The study included 239 patients who underwent ePCIs and responded to the QLMI-2 questionnaire. The mean age (± standard deviation) of the participants was 55.74 ± 11.84 years, 54.58 ± 11.37 years for males (n = 174) and 59.11 ± 12.49 years for females (n = 65). The average scores for physical, emotional and social HRQoL were 4.38 ± 1.27, 4.4 ± 1.11, and 4.37 ± 1.32, respectively. Out of the 42 factors inputted to the models to predict HRQoL scores, 10, 9, and 9 factors were found to be significant determinants for physical, emotional and social domains, respectively, with adjusted coefficients of determination of 0.630, 0.604 and 0.534, respectively. Basophil levels on admission showed a significant positive correlation with the three domains of HRQoL, while aortic root diameter showed a negative correlation. Scores for the three domains were significantly lower in women than in men. Hypertensive and diabetic patients had significantly lower HRQoL scores than patients without hypertension and diabetes.

CONCLUSION

The prediction of HRQoL scores 6 months after an ePCI is possible based on data acquired on admission. The models developed here can be used as decision-making tools to guide physicians in identifying the efficacy of ePCIs for individual patients, hence decreasing the rate of inappropriate ePCIs and reducing costs and complications.

Increases in statin eligibility to reduce cardiovascular risk according to the 2013 ACC/AHA cholesterol guidelines in the Africa Middle East region: a sub-analysis of the Africa Middle East Cardiovascular Epidemiological (ACE) study

BACKGROUND

With development of cholesterol management guidelines by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA), more individuals at risk of cardiovascular disease may be eligible for statin therapy. It is not known how this affects statin eligibility in the Africa and Middle East Region.

METHODS

Data were used from the Africa Middle East Cardiovascular Epidemiological (ACE) study. The percentage of subjects eligible for statins per the ACC/AHA 2013 cholesterol guidelines and the 2002 National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel (NCEP-ATP III) recommendations were compared. Analyses were carried out according to age, gender, community (urban/rural), and country income categories based on World Bank definitions.

RESULTS

According to the ACC/AHA recommendations, 1695 out of 4378 subjects (39%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 37-40%) satisfied statin eligibility criteria vs. 1043/4378 (24%; 95% CI, 23-25%) per NCEP-ATP recommendations, representing a 63% increase in statin eligibility. Consistent increases in eligibility for statin therapy were seen according to the ACC/AHA vs. NCEP-ATP guidelines across sub-groups of age, gender, community, and country income. Notable increases for statin eligibility according to ACC/AHA vs. NCEP-ATP were seen, respectively, in subjects aged ≥65 years (86% vs. 39%), in males (46% vs. 25%), in low-income countries (28% vs. 14%), and rural communities (37% vs. 19%).

CONCLUSION

An increase in statin eligibility was seen applying ACC/AHA cholesterol guidelines compared with previous NCEP-ATP recommendations in the Africa Middle East region. The economic consequences of these guideline recommendations will need further research.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The ACE trial is registered under NCT01243138 .

Joint association of urinary sodium and potassium excretion with cardiovascular events and mortality: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the joint association of sodium and potassium urinary excretion (as surrogate measures of intake) with cardiovascular events and mortality, in the context of current World Health Organization recommendations for daily intake (<2.0 g sodium, >3.5 g potassium) in adults.

DESIGN

International prospective cohort study.

SETTING

18 high, middle, and low income countries, sampled from urban and rural communities.

PARTICIPANTS

103 570 people who provided morning fasting urine samples.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Association of estimated 24 hour urinary sodium and potassium excretion (surrogates for intake) with all cause mortality and major cardiovascular events, using multivariable Cox regression. A six category variable for joint sodium and potassium was generated: sodium excretion (low (<3 g/day), moderate (3-5 g/day), and high (>5 g/day) sodium intakes) by potassium excretion (greater/equal or less than median 2.1 g/day).

RESULTS

Mean estimated sodium and potassium urinary excretion were 4.93 g/day and 2.12 g/day, respectively. After a median follow-up of 8.2 years, 7884 (6.1%) participants had died or experienced a major cardiovascular event. Increasing urinary sodium excretion was positively associated with increasing potassium excretion (unadjusted r=0.34), and only 0.002% had a concomitant urinary excretion of <2.0 g/day of sodium and >3.5 g/day of potassium. A J-shaped association was observed of sodium excretion and inverse association of potassium excretion with death and cardiovascular events. For joint sodium and potassium excretion categories, the lowest risk of death and cardiovascular events occurred in the group with moderate sodium excretion (3-5 g/day) and higher potassium excretion (21.9% of cohort). Compared with this reference group, the combinations of low potassium with low sodium excretion (hazard ratio 1.23, 1.11 to 1.37; 7.4% of cohort) and low potassium with high sodium excretion (1.21, 1.11 to 1.32; 13.8% of cohort) were associated with the highest risk, followed by low sodium excretion (1.19, 1.02 to 1.38; 3.3% of cohort) and high sodium excretion (1.10, 1.02 to 1.18; 29.6% of cohort) among those with potassium excretion greater than the median. Higher potassium excretion attenuated the increased cardiovascular risk associated with high sodium excretion (P for interaction=0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that the simultaneous target of low sodium intake (<2 g/day) with high potassium intake (>3.5 g/day) is extremely uncommon. Combined moderate sodium intake (3-5 g/day) with high potassium intake is associated with the lowest risk of mortality and cardiovascular events.

Stroke in the Middle-East and North Africa: A 2-year prospective observational study of stroke characteristics in the region-Results from the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke (SITS)-Middle-East and North African (MENA)

BACKGROUND AND METHODS

Stroke incidence and mortality are reported to have increased in the Middle-East and North African (MENA) countries during the last decade. This was a prospective observational study to examine the baseline characteristics of stroke patients in the MENA region and to compare the MENA vs. the non-MENA stroke cohort in the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke (SITS) International Registry.

RESULTS

Of the 13,822 patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke enrolled in the SITS-All Patients Protocol between June 2014 and May 2016, 5897 patients (43%) were recruited in MENA. The median onset-to-door time was 5 h (IQR: 2:20-13:00), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was 8 (4-13) and age was 65 years (56-76). Hypertension (66%) and diabetes (38%) were the prevailing risk factors; large artery stenosis > 50% (25.3%) and lacunar strokes (24.1%) were the most common ischemic stroke etiologies. In comparison, non-MENA countries displayed an onset-to-door time of 5:50 h (2:00-18:45), a median of NIHSS 6 (3-14), and a median age of 66 (56-76), with other large vessel disease and cardiac embolism as the main ischemic stroke etiologies. Hemorrhagic strokes (10%) were less common compared to non-MENA countries (13.9%). In MENA, only a low proportion of patients (21%) was admitted to stroke units.

CONCLUSIONS

MENA patients are slightly younger, have a higher prevalence of diabetes and slightly more severe ischemic strokes, commonly of atherosclerotic or microvascular etiology. Admission into stroke units and long-term follow-up need to be improved. It is suspected that cardiac embolism and atrial fibrillation are currently underdiagnosed in MENA countries.

Divergent trends in ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality in India from 2000 to 2015: a nationally representative mortality study

Introduction

India accounts for about a fifth of cardiovascular deaths globally, but nationally representative data on mortality trends are not yet available. In this nationwide mortality study, we aimed to assess the trends in ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality over 15 years using the Million Death Study.

Methods

We determined national and subnational cardiovascular mortality rates and trends by sex and birth cohort using cause of death ascertained by verbal autopsy from 2001 to 2013 among 2·4 million households. We derived mortality rates for ischaemic heart disease and stroke by applying mortality proportions to UN mortality estimates for India and projected the rates from 2000 to 2015.

Findings

Cardiovascular disease caused more than 2·1 million deaths in India in 2015 at all ages, or more than a quarter of all deaths. At ages 30–69 years, of 1·3 million cardiovascular deaths, 0·9 million (68·4%) were caused by ischaemic heart disease and 0·4 million (28·0%) by stroke. At these ages, the probability of dying from ischaemic heart disease increased during 2000–15, from 10·4% to 13·1% in men and 4·8% to 6·6% in women. Ischaemic heart disease mortality rates in rural areas increased rapidly and surpassed those in urban areas. By contrast, the probability of dying from stroke decreased from 5·7% to 5·0% in men and 5·0% to 3·9% in women. A third of premature stroke deaths occurred in the northeastern states, inhabited by a sixth of India’s population, where rates increased significantly and were three times higher than the national average. The increased mortality rates of ischaemic heart disease nationally and stroke in the northeastern states were higher in the cohorts of adults born in the 1970s onwards, than in earlier decades. A large and growing proportion of the ischaemic heart disease nationally and stroke deaths in high-burden states reported earlier diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, but low medication use.

Interpretation

The unexpectedly diverse patterns of cardiovascular mortality require investigation to identify the role of established and new cardiovascular risk factors. Secondary prevention with effective and inexpensive long-term treatment and adult smoking cessation could prevent substantial numbers of premature deaths. Without progress against the control of cardiovascular disease in India, global goals to reduce non-communicable diseases by 2030 will be difficult to achieve.

Funding

Fogarty International Center of the US National Institutes of Health, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Indian Council of Medical Research, and the Disease Control Priorities.

Gender based survival prediction models for heart failure patients: A case study in Pakistan

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to build and assess the performance of survival prediction models using the gender-specific informative risk factors for patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

METHODS

A lasso approach was used to decide the informative predictors for building semi-parametric proportional hazards Cox model. Separate models were built for all patients [N = 299], male patients [Nmale = 194 (64.88%)], and female patients [Nfemale = 105 (35.12%)], to observe the risk factors associated with the individual's risk of death. The likelihood- ratio test was used to test the goodness of fit of the selected model, and the C-index was used to assess the predictive performance of the selected model(s) with respect to the overall model with all observed risk factors.

RESULTS

The survival prediction model for females is notably different from that for males. For males, smoking, diabetes, and anaemia, whereas for females, ejection fraction, sodium, and platelets count are non-informative with zero regression coefficients. The goodness of fit of the selected models with respect to the general model with all observed risk factors is tested using the likelihood-ratio test. The results are in favor of the selected models with p-values 0.51,0.61, and 0.70 for all patients, male patients, and female patients, respectively. The same values of C-index for the full model and the selected models for overall data, for males, and for females (0.72, 0.73, and 0.77 for overall data, male data, and female data, respectively) indicate that the selected models are as good as the corresponding overall models regarding their predictive performance.

CONCLUSION

There is a substantial difference in the survival prediction models for heart failure (HF) of male and female patients in this study. More studies are needed in Pakistan for confirming this striking male-female difference regarding the potential risk factors to predict survival with heart failure.

Management of pharmacotherapy-related problems in acute coronary syndrome: Role of clinical pharmacist in cardiac rehabilitation unit

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide and negatively impacts healthcare costs, productivity and quality of life. Polymorbidity and polypharmacy predispose ACS patients to medication discrepancies between cardiologist-prescribed medication and drug use by the patient, drug-related problems (DRPs) and inadequate drug adherence. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of clinical pharmacist-provided services on the outcome of ACS patients. This was a prospective, randomized, controlled study on ACS patients participating in a cardiac rehabilitation programme. Forty ACS patients were randomly assigned to either control group, who received standard medical care, or intervention group, who received standard medical care plus clinical pharmacist-provided services. Services included DRP management, clinical assessment and enforcing the patient education and adherence. For both groups, the following were assessed at baseline and after 3 months: DRPs, adherence (assessed by 8-item Morisky Adherence Questionnaire), patient's knowledge (assessed by Coronary Artery Disease Questionnaire), 36-Short Form Health Survey (SF-36), heart rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), total cholesterol (TC) and fasting blood glucose (FBG). After 3 months, there was a significant difference between the intervention and control groups in the per cent change of DRPs (median: -100 vs 5.882, P = 0.0001), patient's adherence score (median: 39.13 vs -14.58, P = 0.0001), knowledge score (median: 30.28 vs -5.196, P = 0.0001), SF-36 scores, heart rate (mean: -10.04 vs 6.791, P = 0.0001), diastolic blood pressure (mean: -17.87 vs 10.45, P = 0.0001), systolic blood pressure (mean: -16.22 vs 4.751, P = 0.0001), LDL (median: -25.73 vs -0.2538, P = 0.0071), TC (median: -14.62 vs 4.123, P = 0.0005) and FBG (median: -11.42 vs 5.422, P = 0.0098). Clinical pharmacists can play an important role as part of a cardiac rehabilitation team through patient education and interventions to minimize DRPs.

Adherence to self-care recommendations and associated factors among adult heart failure patients. From the patients' point of view

Background

Nowadays, heart failure (HF) related morbidity and mortality rate is increasing globally. Younger populations happen to be more affected by HF in sub- Saharan African than the western countries. Even though medications, low sodium diet, regular exercise, and weight monitoring are essential to control heart failure symptoms and its exacerbation, poor adherence to these self-care recommendations is contributing to an increased in hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to assess heart failure patients’ adherence to self-care recommendations and its associated factors.

Methods

A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 310 adult heart failure patients attending Gondar University referral hospital from February to May 2017. The participants were selected by systematic random sampling technique. Data were collected through face to face interview and from the patients’ medical records. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. A binary logistic regression model was used to check the effect of different factors on the patients’ adherence level.

Results

Of 310 study participants only 22.3% (95% CI, 17.4%-26.8%) of heart failure patients reported good adherence to their self-care recommendations. Adherence to self-care recommendation was positively associated with being male in gender (AOR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.18–4.62), good level of heart failure knowledge (AOR = 2.49, 95% CI: 1.276–4.856) and free from chronic comorbid diseases (AOR = 2.57, 95% CI: 1.28–5.14).

Conclusion

Overall, heart failure patients’ adherence to self-care recommendations is poor and selective. Being male in gender, had no chronic comorbidity, and a good level of heart failure knowledge were positively associated with adherence to self-care recommendations. It is therefore strategic to plan improving heart failure patients’ knowledge about heart failure signs, symptoms and its management approaches, to improve the patients’ adherence level.

Urban-rural differences in the association between blood lipids and characteristics of the built environment: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

The built environment defines opportunities for healthy eating and physical activity and may thus be related to blood lipids. The aim of this study is to systematically analyse the scientific evidence on associations between built-environment characteristics and blood lipid levels in adults.

Methods

PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science were searched for peer-reviewed papers on population-based studies up to 9 October 2017. We included studies that reported on built-environment characteristics and blood lipid levels in adult populations (≥18 years). Two reviewers independently screened titles/abstracts and full-texts of papers and appraised the risk of bias of included studies using an adapted version of the Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies. We performed meta-analyses when five or more studies had sufficient homogeneity in determinant and outcome.

Results

After screening 6902 titles/abstracts and 141 potentially relevant full-text articles, we included 50 studies. Forty-seven studies explored associations between urban versus rural areas with blood lipid levels. Meta-analyses on urban versus rural areas included 133 966 subjects from 36 studies in total. Total cholesterol levels were significantly and consistently higher in urban areas as compared with rural areas (mean difference 0.37 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.48). Urban/rural differences in high density lipoprotein cholesterol were inconsistent across studies and the pooled estimate showed no difference (0.00 mmol/L 95% CI −0.03 to 0.04). Low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and triglyceride levels were higher in urban than in rural areas (mean difference 0.28, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.39 and 0.09, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.14, respectively).

Conclusions

Total and LDL cholesterol levels and triglycerides were consistently higher in residents of urban areas than those of rural areas. These results indicate that residents of urban areas generally have less favourable lipid profiles as compared with residents of rural areas.

Prospero registration number

CRD42016043226.

Community-based cardiovascular health promotion in Argentina. A systematic review

In Argentina, cardiovascular disease (CVD) accounts for 30% of deaths and more than 600 000 disability-adjusted life years. However, no reviews describing local studies on interventions to address CVD risk factors have been identified. The purpose of this study is to characterize those population-based interventions and public policies implemented in Argentina to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease with an adequate evaluation of their impact on population health. We conducted a systematic review of studies that assessed interventions in health promotion and/or primary prevention conducted in adult populations of Argentina, addressing specific CVD factors, from 1999 to 2016. We searched major bibliographic databases, grey literature, ministries and secretariats of health, and academic national libraries. Key informants, non-governmental organizations, universities, hospitals and experts were also contacted. We applied specific inclusion criteria. We assessed the methodological quality of the studies and reported the effectiveness and impact of population interventions and policies, as well as process evaluations' characteristics. After removing duplicates we identified 1686 references from databases. After reviewing title and abstracts 18 studies were selected, five of them corresponded to evaluations of public policies-all addressing tobacco smoking. We presented a structured review of each experience. Most of the studies were deemed to entail moderate or high risk of bias. We summarized the findings and characteristics of these studies, including implementation strategies, process and impact evaluation. This is the first systematic review of interventions focused on primary prevention and health promotion to counter CVD and diabetes in Argentina.

The distribution of cardiac diagnostic testing for acute coronary syndrome in the Brazilian healthcare system: A national geospatial evaluation of health access

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the utilization of cardiac diagnostic testing in Brazil and how such testing is related with local rates of acute coronary syndrome (ACS)-related mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using data from DATASUS, the public national healthcare database, absolute counts of diagnostic tests performed were calculated for each of the 5570 municipalities and mapped. Spatial error regression and geographic weighted regression models were used to describe the geographic variation in the association between ACS mortality, income, and access to diagnostic testing. From 2008 to 2014, a total of 4,653,884 cardiac diagnostic procedures were performed in Brazil, at a total cost of $271 million USD. The overall ACS mortality rate during this time period was 133.8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants aged 20 to 79. The most commonly utilized test was the stress ECG (3,015,993), followed by catheterization (862,627), scintigraphy (669,969) and stress echocardiography (105,295). The majority of these procedures were conducted in large urban centers in more economically developed regions of the country. Increased access to testing and increased income were not uniformly associated with decreased ACS mortality, and tremendous geographic heterogeneity was observed in the relationship between these variables.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of testing for ACS in Brazil is conducted at referral centers in developed urban settings. Stress ECG is the dominant testing modality in use. Increased access to diagnostic testing was not consistently associated with decreased ACS mortality across the country.

First cardiovascular event in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus of a cardiovascular risk management program of a poor Colombian population: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

According to several studies in population of high-income countries (HIC), patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) have a considerably higher risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, it is not clear if the magnitude of this association can be widespread in other populations. The objective of this study was to determine the independent association between Type 2 DM and first cardiovascular event in Colombian Caribbean poor population with no records of previous cardiovascular events reported.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the individual records from the hospitalizations database of 64,668 patients of cardiovascular risk management program from July 2014 to December 2015. We used a propensity score matching cohort analysis for this study. The Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed for the cardiovascular events related endpoints and matched Cox-regression analysis to estimate associations of a history of Type 2 DM with cardiovascular outcomes during 1.5 years of follow-up. A formal sensitivity analysis using The Breslow-Day and Tarone Homogeneity tests was conducted.

RESULTS

Out of 56,351 patients with no previous cardiovascular events records, 19,368 (34.4%) patients were found to suffer Type 2 DM. Using propensity scores for Type 2 DM, we gathered a cohort of 18,449 pairs of patients with and without Type 2 DM who were balanced on 22 baseline characteristics. A first cardiovascular event occurred in 650 (3.5%) and 403 (2.1%) matched patients with and without Type 2 DM, respectively, during 1.5 years of follow-up. Type 2 DM was associated with first cardiovascular event (HR 1.69; 95% CI 1.43-2.00; p = 0.000), AMI (HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.45-2.20; p = 0.000) and stroke (HR 1.54; 95% CI 1.18-2.02; p = 0.001). Hazard ratios (95% CIs) for the association of Type 2 DM with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause hospitalization were 1.36 (1.21-1.53; p < 0.001), 1.52 (1.12-2.08; p 0.004), and 1.20 (1.21-1.53; p < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Type 2 DM resulted to be a significant independent risk factor for first cardiovascular event in Colombian Caribbean poor population with no previous records of cardiovascular events.

Cardiovascular disease-related mortality and factors associated with cardiovascular events in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD)

OBJECTIVES

With aging of the HIV-positive population, cardiovascular disease (CVD) increasingly contributes to morbidity and mortality. We investigated CVD-related and other causes of death (CODs) and factors associated with CVD in a multi-country Asian HIV-positive cohort.

METHODS

Patient data from 2003-2017 were obtained from the Therapeutics, Research, Education and AIDS Training in Asia (TREAT Asia) HIV Observational Database (TAHOD). We included patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with > 1 day of follow-up. Cumulative incidences were plotted for CVD-related, AIDS-related, non-AIDS-related, and unknown CODs, and any CVD (i.e. fatal and nonfatal). Competing risk regression was used to assess risk factors of any CVD.

RESULTS

Of 8069 patients with a median follow-up of 7.3 years [interquartile range (IQR) 4.4-10.7 years], 378 patients died [incidence rate (IR) 6.2 per 1000 person-years (PY)], and this total included 22 CVD-related deaths (IR 0.36 per 1000 PY). Factors significantly associated with any CVD event (IR 2.2 per 1000 PY) were older age [sub-hazard ratio (sHR) 2.21; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36-3.58 for age 41-50 years; sHR 5.52; 95% CI 3.43-8.91 for ≥ 51 years, compared with < 40 years], high blood pressure (sHR 1.62; 95% CI 1.04-2.52), high total cholesterol (sHR 1.89; 95% CI 1.27-2.82), high triglycerides (sHR 1.55; 95% CI 1.02-2.37) and high body mass index (BMI) (sHR 1.66; 95% CI 1.12-2.46). CVD crude IRs were lower in the later ART initiation period and in lower middle- and upper middle-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The development of fatal and nonfatal CVD events in our cohort was associated with older age, and treatable risk factors such as high blood pressure, triglycerides, total cholesterol and BMI. Lower CVD event rates in middle-income countries may indicate under-diagnosis of CVD in Asian-Pacific resource-limited settings.

Sociodemographic characteristic of changes in smoking patterns in rural and urban population of PURE Poland study: findings from 6-year follow up

Background

Tobacco smoking is one of the most serious modern civilization threats. According to WHO identifying patterns of tobacco use is essential for implementing effective preventive policies. The aim of the paper was to assess changes in smoking patterns among the PURE study population over 6 years.

Methods

The study sample comprised of 1784 adult participants from PURE Poland study, who were assessed at baseline (2007–2010) and then at 6-year follow-up. Participants were classified into current smokers, ex-smokers and never smokers. Smoking patterns were analyzed according to sex, age/birth cohort, place of residence (urban vs rural setting), and education level.

Results

Overall, a significant decrease of 3.1% in current smokers was observed (from 20.0% in baseline to 16.9 at follow-up). However, 0.8% of never smokers and 6.2% of ex-smokers at baseline were classified as current smokers at 6-year follow-up. Despite overall decrease in percentage of current smokers in both rural and urban area, in fact significantly more ex-smokers from rural area became current smokers after 6 years. Living in the rural area was associated with nearly two-fold increase in current smoking, and almost two-fold decline in chances to quit smoking. The highest percentage of current smokers was observed in birth year cohort 1961–1979.

Conclusion

Despite a small but significant decline in overall smoking rates, important differences in smoking and quitting patterns emerged between rural and urban areas, as well as sexes. A less favorable smoking patterns were observed among women, and rural populations, suggesting that these are important targets of future tobacco control interventions in Poland.

Comparing the ability of anthropometric indicators in determining the prevalence of hypertension among Indian tribes

OBJECTIVE

We compared the ability of the selected anthropometric indicators to best predict the prevalence of hypertension among the Indian tribes.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was undertaken among 1431 adult participants (705 males and 726 females) between the ages of 20 and 60 years from six major tribes in India. Selected anthropometric indicators such as body mass index (BMI), waist-hip-ratio (WHR), waist-height-ratio (WHtR), percentage body fat (PBF), visceral fat (VF), minimum-waist-circumference (MWC) and sum-of-the-four skinfold thickness (SF4), along with the physiological parameters such as blood pressure were recorded. Discriminant analysis (DA) was performed to examine and compare the ability of the selected anthropometric indicators towards classifying hypertension among males, females and the total population.

RESULTS

Significant independent association was observed for hypertension and similar conditions within gender and selected age-group categories. The overall hypertension prevalence among the studied tribes was observed at 12.6%. Standardized function coefficients (SFCs) in discriminant analysis revealed PBF(0.89, 0.36, and 0.76 for overall, males, and females respectively) as the most powerful discriminator of hypertension. In addition, visceral fat (0.74, 1.46, and 0.58 for overall, males and females respectively) was observed to be the other significant indicator of hypertensive blood pressure. These exploratory findings for the first time indicate fat deposition, rather than body density alone, as an emerging physiological and metabolic risk among Indian tribes.

CONCLUSION

In the context of the highly prevalent chronic undernutrition, internal fat deposition is a major classifying factor of physiological and metabolic intolerance. It also indicates the increasing trend in lifestyle changes and the associated adversities among the Indian tribes.

Satisfaction With Statin Treatment Among Adult Coronary Artery Disease Patients: An Experience From a Resource-Constrained Setting

BACKGROUND

Statins are the most widely prescribed hypolipidaemic drugs for coronary artery disease (CAD) patients, but have been found to cause muscle and nerve related adverse effects which can affect patient satisfaction with treatment. Literature on treatment satisfaction among statin users, especially from resource-limited settings is inadequate. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to assess the level of satisfaction with treatment among statin users and evaluate the relationship between adverse effects experienced by patients and their satisfaction with the medication.

METHODS

This study included 300 adult CAD patients visiting the cardiology department of a tertiary care hospital in the northern region of India, who were prescribed statins for their diagnoses. An interviewer administered, validated and standardised Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire for Medication (version 1.4) was used for data collection.

RESULTS

Around three quarters of the population reported being overall satisfied with their medication. Mean scores were calculated for Effectiveness, Convenience, Side-Effects and Global Satisfaction. The patients reported high scores (above 60%) for all domains. Those experiencing any adverse effect were found to be more likely to report lower effectiveness. Additionally, medication effectiveness showed a positive correlation with overall treatment satisfaction.

CONCLUSIONS

The study shows that treatment satisfaction is critical to gauge patient experiences with the treatment which can impact medication adherence and compliance. It's a crucial measure especially among CAD and other chronic disease patients since greater satisfaction can improve clinical outcomes. More research is warranted to better understand the relationship between medication effectiveness and treatment satisfaction.

Moving From Heart Failure Guidelines to Clinical Practice: Gaps Contributing to Readmissions in Patients With Multiple Comorbidities and Older Age

This feature article for the thematic series on congestive heart failure (CHF) readmissions aims to outline important gaps in guidelines for patients with multiple comorbidities and the elderly. Congestive heart failure diagnosis manifests as a 3-phase journey between the hospital and community, during acute, chronic stable, and end-of-life (palliative) phases. This journey requires in variable intensities a combination of multidisciplinary care within tertiary hospital or ambulatory care from hospital outpatients or primary health services, within the general community. Management goals are uniform, ie, to achieve the lowest New York Heart Association class possible, with improvement in ejection fraction, by delivering gold standard therapies within a CHF program. Comorbidities are an important common denominator that influences outcomes. Comorbidities include diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive airways disease, chronic renal impairment, hypertension, obesity, sleep apnea, and advancing age. Geriatric care includes the latter as well as syndromes such as frailty, falls, incontinence, and confusion. Many systems still fail to comprehensively achieve all aspects of such programs. This review explores these factors.