Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change.

Cumulative stress restricts niche filling potential of habitat-forming kelps in a future climate

Climate change is driving range contractions and local population extinctions across the globe. When this affects ecosystem engineers the vacant niches left behind are likely to alter the wider ecosystem unless a similar species can fulfil them.

Here, we explore the stress physiology of two coexisting kelps undergoing opposing range shifts in the Northeast Atlantic and discuss what differences in stress physiology may mean for future niche filling.

We used chlorophyll florescence (F_v/F_m) and differentiation of the heat shock response (HSR) to determine the capacity of the expanding kelp, Laminaria ochroleuca, to move into the higher shore position of the retreating kelp, Laminaria digitata. We applied both single and consecutive exposures to immersed and emersed high and low temperature treatments, replicating low tide exposures experienced in summer and winter.

No interspecific differences in HSR were observed which was surprising given the species’ different biogeographic distributions. However, chlorophyll florescence revealed clear differences between species with L. ochroleuca better equipped to tolerate high immersed temperatures but showed little capacity to tolerate frosts or high emersion temperatures.

Many patterns observed were only apparent after consecutive exposures. Such cumulative effects have largely been overlooked in tolerance experiments on intertidal organisms despite being more representative of the stress experienced in natural habitats. We therefore suggest future experiments incorporate consecutive stress into their design.

Climate change is predicted to result in fewer ground frosts and increased summer temperatures. Therefore, L. ochroleuca may be released from its summer cold limit in winter but still be prevented from moving up the shore due to desiccation in the summer. Laminaria ochroleuca will, however, likely be able to move into tidal pools. Therefore, only partial niche filling by L. ochroleuca will be possible in this system as climate change advances.

A plain language summary is available for this article.

Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird

Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade^-1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century¹. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade^-1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade^-1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

Effects of warming rate, acclimation temperature and ontogeny on the critical thermal maximum of temperate marine fish larvae

Most of the thermal tolerance studies on fish have been performed on juveniles and adults, whereas limited information is available for larvae, a stage which may have a particularly narrow range in tolerable temperatures. Moreover, previous studies on thermal limits for marine and freshwater fish larvae (53 studies reviewed here) applied a wide range of methodologies (e.g. the static or dynamic method, different exposure times), making it challenging to compare across taxa. We measured the Critical Thermal Maximum (CT_max) of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) and European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) larvae using the dynamic method (ramping assay) and assessed the effect of warming rate (0.5 to 9°C h^-1) and acclimation temperature. The larvae of herring had a lower CT_max (lowest and highest values among 222 individual larvae, 13.1–27.0°C) than seabass (lowest and highest values among 90 individual larvae, 24.2–34.3°C). At faster rates of warming, larval CT_max significantly increased in herring, whereas no effect was observed in seabass. Higher acclimation temperatures led to higher CT_max in herring larvae (2.7 ± 0.9°C increase) with increases more pronounced at lower warming rates. Pre-trials testing the effects of warming rate are recommended. Our results for these two temperate marine fishes suggest using a warming rate of 3–6°C h^-1: CT_max is highest in trials of relatively short duration, as has been suggested for larger fish. Additionally, time-dependent thermal tolerance was observed in herring larvae, where a difference of up to 8°C was observed in the upper thermal limit between a 0.5- or 24-h exposure to temperatures >18°C. The present study constitutes a first step towards a standard protocol for measuring thermal tolerance in larval fish.

Coral mass spawning predicted by rapid seasonal rise in ocean temperature

Coral spawning times have been linked to multiple environmental factors; however, to what extent these factors act as generalized cues across multiple species and large spatial scales is unknown. We used a unique dataset of coral spawning from 34 reefs in the Indian and Pacific Oceans to test if month of spawning and peak spawning month in assemblages of Acropora spp. can be predicted by sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation, wind speed, current speed, rainfall or sunset time. Contrary to the classic view that high mean SST initiates coral spawning, we found rapid increases in SST to be the best predictor in both cases (month of spawning: R(2) = 0.73, peak: R(2) = 0.62). Our findings suggest that a rapid increase in SST provides the dominant proximate cue for coral mass spawning over large geographical scales. We hypothesize that coral spawning is ultimately timed to ensure optimal fertilization success.

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO₂ . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification.

Community-level regulation of temporal trends in biodiversity

Many theoretical models of community dynamics predict that species richness (S) and total abundance (N) are regulated in their temporal fluctuations. We present novel evidence for widespread regulation of biodiversity. For 59 plant and animal assemblages from around the globe monitored annually for a decade or more, the majority exhibited regulated fluctuations compared to the null hypothesis of an unconstrained random walk. However, there was little evidence for statistical artifacts, regulation driven by correlations with average annual temperature, or local-scale compensatory fluctuations in S or N. In the absence of major environmental perturbations, such as urbanization or cropland transformation, species richness and abundance may be buffered and exhibit some resilience in their temporal trajectories. These results suggest that regulatory processes are occurring despite unprecedented environmental change, highlighting the need for community-level assessment of biodiversity trends, as well as extensions of existing theory to address open source pools and shifting environmental conditions.

Marine assemblages respond rapidly to winter climate variability

Even species within the same assemblage have varied responses to climate change, and there is a poor understanding for why some taxa are more sensitive to climate than others. In addition, multiple mechanisms can drive species' responses, and responses may be specific to certain life stages or times of year. To test how marine species respond to climate variability, we analyzed 73 diverse taxa off the southeast US coast in 26 years of scientific trawl survey data and determined how changes in distribution and biomass relate to temperature. We found that winter temperatures were particularly useful for explaining interannual variation in species' distribution and biomass, although the direction and magnitude of the response varied among species from strongly negative, to little response, to strongly positive. Across species, the response to winter temperature varied greatly, with much of this variation being explained by thermal preference. A separate analysis of annual commercial fishery landings revealed that winter temperatures may also impact several important fisheries in the southeast United States. Based on the life stages of the species surveyed, winter temperature appears to act through overwinter mortality of juveniles or as a cue for migration timing. We predict that this assemblage will be responsive to projected increases in temperature and that winter temperature may be broadly important for species relationships with climate on a global scale.

Bayesian joint models with INLA exploring marine mobile predator-prey and competitor species habitat overlap

Understanding spatial physical habitat selection driven by competition and/or predator–prey interactions of mobile marine species is a fundamental goal of spatial ecology. However, spatial counts or density data for highly mobile animals often (1) include excess zeros, (2) have spatial correlation, and (3) have highly nonlinear relationships with physical habitat variables, which results in the need for complex joint spatial models. In this paper, we test the use of Bayesian hierarchical hurdle and zero‐inflated joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), to fit complex joint models to spatial patterns of eight mobile marine species (grey seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black‐legged kittiwake, northern gannet, herring, and sandeels). For each joint model, we specified nonlinear smoothed effect of physical habitat covariates and selected either competing species or predator–prey interactions. Out of a range of six ecologically important physical and biologic variables that are predicted to change with climate change and large‐scale energy extraction, we identified the most important habitat variables for each species and present the relationships between these bio/physical variables and species distributions. In particular, we found that net primary production played a significant role in determining habitat preferences of all the selected mobile marine species. We have shown that the INLA method is well‐suited for modeling spatially correlated data with excessive zeros and is an efficient approach to fit complex joint spatial models with nonlinear effects of covariates. Our approach has demonstrated its ability to define joint habitat selection for both competing and prey–predator species that can be relevant to numerous issues in the management and conservation of mobile marine species.

Palaeoclimatic conditions in the Mediterranean explain genetic diversity of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows

Past environmental conditions in the Mediterranean Sea have been proposed as main drivers of the current patterns of distribution of genetic structure of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica, the foundation species of one of the most important ecosystems in the Mediterranean Sea. Yet, the location of cold climate refugia (persistence regions) for this species during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is not clear, precluding the understanding of its biogeographical history. We used Ecological Niche Modelling together with existing phylogeographic data to locate Pleistocene refugia in the Mediterranean Sea and to develop a hypothetical past biogeographical distribution able to explain the genetic diversity presently found in P. oceanica meadows. To do that, we used an ensemble approach of six predictive algorithms and two Ocean General Circulation Models. The minimum SST in winter and the maximum SST in summer allowed us to hindcast the species range during the LGM. We found separate glacial refugia in each Mediterranean basin and in the Central region. Altogether, the results suggest that the Central region of the Mediterranean Sea was the most relevant cold climate refugium, supporting the hypothesis that long-term persistence there allowed the region to develop and retain its presently high proportion of the global genetic diversity of P. oceanica.

Where do they go? The effects of topography and habitat diversity on reducing climatic debt in birds

The spatial tracking of climatic shifts is frequently reported as a biodiversity response to climatic change. However, species' range shifts are often idiosyncratic and inconsistent with climatic shift predictions. At the community scale, this discrepancy can be measured by comparing the spatial shift in the relative composition of cold- vs. warm-adapted species in a local assemblage [the community temperature index (CTI)] with the spatial shift in temperature isotherms. While the local distribution of climate change velocity is a promising approach to downscaling climate change pressure and responses, CTI velocity has only been investigated on a continental or national scale. In this study, we coupled French Breeding Bird Survey data, collected from 2133 sites monitored between 2001 and 2012, with climatic data in order to estimate the local magnitude and direction of breeding season temperature shift, CTI shift, and their spatiotemporal divergence - the local climatic debt. We also tested whether landscape characteristics that are known to affect climate velocity and spatial tracking of climate change mediated the climatic debt on the local scale. We found a clear spatial structure, together with heterogeneity in both temperature and CTI spatial shifts. Local climatic debt decreased as the elevation, habitat diversity, and the naturalness of the landscape increased. These results suggest the complementary effects of the local topographic patterns sheltering more diverse microclimates and the increasing permeability of natural and diversified landscape. Our findings suggest that a more nuanced evaluation of spatial variability in climatic and biotic shifts is necessary in order to properly describe biodiversity responses to climate change rather than the oversimplified descriptions of uniform poleward shifts.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.

Local scale processes drive long-term change in biodiversity of sandy beach ecosystems

Evaluating impacts to biodiversity requires ecologically informed comparisons over sufficient time spans. The vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to anthropogenic and climate change‐related impacts makes them potentially valuable indicators of biodiversity change. To evaluate multidecadal change in biodiversity, we compared results from intertidal surveys of 13 sandy beaches conducted in the 1970s and 2009–11 along 500 km of coast (California, USA). Using a novel extrapolation approach to adjust species richness for sampling effort allowed us to address data gaps and has promise for application to other data‐limited biodiversity comparisons. Long‐term changes in species richness varied in direction and magnitude among beaches and with human impacts but showed no regional patterns. Observed long‐term changes in richness differed markedly among functional groups of intertidal invertebrates. At the majority (77%) of beaches, changes in richness were most evident for wrack‐associated invertebrates suggesting they have disproportionate vulnerability to impacts. Reduced diversity of this group was consistent with long‐term habitat loss from erosion and sea level rise at one beach. Wrack‐associated species richness declined over time at impacted beaches (beach fill and grooming), despite observed increases in overall intertidal richness. In contrast richness of these taxa increased at more than half (53%) of the beaches including two beaches recovering from decades of off‐road vehicle impacts. Over more than three decades, our results suggest that local scale processes exerted a stronger influence on intertidal biodiversity on beaches than regional processes and highlight the role of human impacts for local spatial scales. Our results illustrate how comparisons of overall biodiversity may mask ecologically important changes and stress the value of evaluating biodiversity change in the context of functional groups. The long‐term loss of wrack‐associated species, a key component of sandy beach ecosystems, documented here represents a significant threat to the biodiversity and function of coastal ecosystems.

The dynamics of a Mediterranean coralligenous sponge assemblage at decennial and millennial temporal scales

This paper concerns the changes occurred over both decennial and millennial spans of time in a sponge assemblage present in coralligenous biogenic build-ups growing at 15 m depth in the Ligurian Sea (Western Mediterranean). The comparison of the sponge diversity after a time interval of about 40 years (1973–2014) showed a significant reduction in species richness (about 45%). This decrease affected mainly the massive/erect sponges, and in particular the subclass Keratosa, with a species loss of 67%, while the encrusting and cavity dwelling sponges lost the 36% and 50%, respectively. The boring sponges lost only one species (25%). This changing pattern suggested that the inner habitat of the bioconstructions was less affected by the variations of the environmental conditions or by the human pressures which, on the contrary, strongly affected the species living on the surface of the biogenic build-ups. Five cores extracted from the bioherms, dating back to 3500 YBP, allowed to analyse the siliceous spicules remained trapped in them in order to obtain taxonomic information. Changes at generic level in diversity and abundance were observed at 500/250-years intervals, ranging between 19 and 33 genera. The number of genera showed a sharp decrease since 3500–3000 to 3000–2500 YBP. After this period, the genera regularly increased until 1500–1250 YBP, from when they progressively decreased until 1000–500 YBP. Tentatively, these changes could be related to the different climatic periods that followed one another in the Mediterranean area within the considered time span. The recent depletion in sponge richness recorded in the Ligurian coralligenous can be considered relevant. In fact, the analysis of the spicules indicated that the sponges living in these coralligenous habitats remained enough stable during 3000 years, but could have lost a significant part of their biodiversity in the last decades, coinciding with a series of warming episodes.

Macroscale patterns in body size of intertidal crustaceans provide insights on climate change effects

Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata), two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda), and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga) with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S), with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N). Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C^-1) in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single widespread coastal ecosystem, and for one species, across hemispheres in this space-for-time substitution, suggests predictions of ecosystem responses to thermal effects of climate change may potentially be generalised, with important implications for coastal conservation.

Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts

Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range-shifting species before they potentially colonize.

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.

Temperature and food quantity effects on the harpacticoid copepod Nitocra spinipes: Combining in vivo bioassays with population modeling

The harpacticoid copepod Nitocra spinipes has become a popular model species for toxicity testing over the past few decades. However, the combined influence of temperature and food shortage, two climate change-related stressors, has never been assessed in this species. Consequently, effects of three temperatures (15, 20 and 25°C) and six food regimes (between 0 and 5 × 10⁵ algal cells/mL) on the life cycle of N. spinipes were examined in this study. Similarly to other copepod species, development times and brood sizes decreased with rising temperatures. Mortality was lowest in the 20°C temperature setup, indicating a close-by temperature optimum for this species. Decreasing food concentrations led to increased development times, higher mortality and a reduction in brood size. A sex ratio shift toward more females per male was observed for increasing temperatures, while no significant relationship with food concentration was found. Temperature and food functions for each endpoint were integrated into an existing individual-based population model for N. spinipes which in the future may serve as an extrapolation tool in environmental risk assessment. The model was able to accurately reproduce the experimental data in subsequent verification simulations. We suggest that temperature, food shortage, and potentially other climate change-related stressors should be considered in environmental risk assessment of chemicals to account for non-optimal exposure conditions that may occur in the field. Furthermore, we advocate combining in vivo bioassays with population modeling as a cost effective higher tier approach to assess such considerations.

Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in 'high allergy risk' (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27-100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

Marine Prasinoviruses and Their Tiny Plankton Hosts: A Review

Viruses play a crucial role in the marine environment, promoting nutrient recycling and biogeochemical cycling and driving evolutionary processes. Tiny marine phytoplankton called prasinophytes are ubiquitous and significant contributors to global primary production and biomass. A number of viruses (known as prasinoviruses) that infect these important primary producers have been isolated and characterised over the past decade. Here we review the current body of knowledge about prasinoviruses and their interactions with their algal hosts. Several genes, including those encoding for glycosyltransferases, methyltransferases and amino acid synthesis enzymes, which have never been identified in viruses of eukaryotes previously, have been detected in prasinovirus genomes. The host organisms are also intriguing; most recently, an immunity chromosome used by a prasinophyte in response to viral infection was discovered. In light of such recent, novel discoveries, we discuss why the cellular simplicity of prasinophytes makes for appealing model host organism-virus systems to facilitate focused and detailed investigations into the dynamics of marine viruses and their intimate associations with host species. We encourage the adoption of the prasinophyte Ostreococcus and its associated viruses as a model host-virus system for examination of cellular and molecular processes in the marine environment.

Rapid and direct recoveries of predators and prey through synchronized ecosystem management

One of the twenty-first century's greatest environmental challenges is to recover and restore species, habitats and ecosystems. The decision about how to initiate restoration is best-informed by an understanding of the linkages between ecosystem components and, given these linkages, an appreciation of the consequences of choosing to recover one ecosystem component before another. However, it remains difficult to predict how the sequence of species' recoveries within food webs influences the speed and trajectory of restoration, and what that means for human well-being. Here, we develop theory to consider the ecological and social implications of synchronous versus sequential (species-by-species) recovery in the context of exploited food webs. A dynamical systems model demonstrates that synchronous recovery of predators and prey is almost always more efficient than sequential recovery. Compared with sequential recovery, synchronous recovery can be twice as fast and produce transient fluctuations of much lower amplitude. A predator-first strategy is particularly slow because it counterproductively suppresses prey recovery. An analysis of real-world predator-prey recoveries shows that synchronous and sequential recoveries are similarly common, suggesting that current practices are not ideal. We highlight policy tools that can facilitate swift and steady recovery of ecosystem structure, function and associated services.

Mismatch between marine plankton range movements and the velocity of climate change

The response of marine plankton to climate change is of critical importance to the oceanic food web and fish stocks. We use a 60-year ocean basin-wide data set comprising >148,000 samples to reveal huge differences in range changes associated with climate change across 35 plankton taxa. While the range of dinoflagellates and copepods tended to closely track the velocity of climate change (the rate of isotherm movement), the range of the diatoms moved much more slowly. Differences in range shifts were up to 900 km in a recent warming period, with average velocities of range movement between 7 km per decade northwards for taxa exhibiting niche plasticity and 99 km per decade for taxa exhibiting niche conservatism. The differing responses of taxa to global warming will cause spatial restructuring of the plankton ecosystem with likely consequences for grazing pressures on phytoplankton and hence for biogeochemical cycling, higher trophic levels and biodiversity.

Marine plankton are the basis of the oceanic food chain. Here, Chivers and colleagues use ocean-basin wide plankton population data over six decades to show huge differences in the response of different plankton groups to climate change with major implications for the marine ecosystem and fisheries.

Recent advances in plant-herbivore interactions

Plant-herbivore interactions shape community dynamics across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial habitats. From amphipods to elephants and from algae to trees, plant-herbivore relationships are the crucial link generating animal biomass (and human societies) from mere sunlight. These interactions are, thus, pivotal to understanding the ecology and evolution of virtually any ecosystem. Here, we briefly highlight recent advances in four areas of plant-herbivore interactions: (1) plant defense theory, (2) herbivore diversity and ecosystem function, (3) predation risk aversion and herbivory, and (4) how a changing climate impacts plant-herbivore interactions. Recent advances in plant defense theory, for example, highlight how plant life history and defense traits affect and are affected by multiple drivers, including enemy pressure, resource availability, and the local plant neighborhood, resulting in trait-mediated feedback loops linking trophic interactions with ecosystem nutrient dynamics. Similarly, although the positive effect of consumer diversity on ecosystem function has long been recognized, recent advances using DNA barcoding to elucidate diet, and Global Positioning System/remote sensing to determine habitat selection and impact, have shown that herbivore communities are probably even more functionally diverse than currently realized. Moreover, although most diversity-function studies continue to emphasize plant diversity, herbivore diversity may have even stronger impacts on ecosystem multifunctionality. Recent studies also highlight the role of risk in plant-herbivore interactions, and risk-driven trophic cascades have emerged as landscape-scale patterns in a variety of ecosystems. Perhaps not surprisingly, many plant-herbivore interactions are currently being altered by climate change, which affects plant growth rates and resource allocation, expression of chemical defenses, plant phenology, and herbivore metabolism and behavior. Finally, we conclude by noting that although the field is advancing rapidly, the world is changing even more rapidly, challenging our ability to manage these pivotal links in the food chain.

Climate impacts on global hot spots of marine biodiversity

Human activities drive environmental changes at scales that could potentially cause ecosystem collapses in the marine environment. We combined information on marine biodiversity with spatial assessments of the impacts of climate change to identify the key areas to prioritize for the conservation of global marine biodiversity. This process identified six marine regions of exceptional biodiversity based on global distributions of 1729 species of fish, 124 marine mammals, and 330 seabirds. Overall, these hot spots of marine biodiversity coincide with areas most severely affected by global warming. In particular, these marine biodiversity hot spots have undergone local to regional increasing water temperatures, slowing current circulation, and decreasing primary productivity. Furthermore, when we overlapped these hot spots with available industrial fishery data, albeit coarser than our estimates of climate impacts, they suggest a worrying coincidence whereby the world's richest areas for marine biodiversity are also those areas mostly affected by both climate change and industrial fishing. In light of these findings, we offer an adaptable framework for determining local to regional areas of special concern for the conservation of marine biodiversity. This has exposed the need for finer-scaled fishery data to assist in the management of global fisheries if the accumulative, but potentially preventable, effect of fishing on climate change impacts is to be minimized within areas prioritized for marine biodiversity conservation.

Climate change stimulates the growth of the intertidal macroalgae Ascophyllum nodosum near the northern distribution limit

Ascophyllum nodosum is a foundation macroalgae of the intertidal zone that distributes across latitude 41.3-69.7°N. We tested the hypothesis that growth of A. nodosum near the northern distribution edge increases with warming. We retrospectively quantified the growth of eight A. nodosum populations at West Greenland and North Norway (from 64°N to 69°N). For seven populations, we measured growth rates since 1997-2002 and for one of them we extended the time series back to 1956 using published estimates. Individuals at northern populations elongated between 2.0 and 9.1 cm year-1 and this variability correlated with temperature and annual ice-free days. A spatial comparison of A. nodosum growth across the species distribution range showed that Northern (and coldest) populations grew at the slowest rates. Our results demonstrate that arctic climate change enhances the growth of A. nodosum populations and suggest that their productivity may increase in response to projected global warming.

Tight Coupling of Glaciecola spp. and Diatoms during Cold-Water Phytoplankton Spring Blooms

Early spring phytoplankton blooms can occur at very low water temperatures but they are often decoupled from bacterial growth, which is assumed to be often temperature controlled. In a previous mesocosm study with Baltic Sea plankton communities, an early diatom bloom was associated with a high relative abundance of Glaciecola sequences (Gammaproteobacteria), at both low (2°C) and elevated (8°C) temperatures, suggesting an important role for this genus in phytoplankton-bacteria coupling. In this study, the temperature-dependent dynamics of free-living Glaciecola spp. during the bloom were analyzed by catalyzed reporter deposition fluorescence in situ hybridization using a newly developed probe. The analysis revealed the appearance of Glaciecola spp. in this and in previous spring mesocosm experiments as the dominating bacterial clade during diatom blooms, with a close coupling between the population dynamics of Glaciecola and phytoplankton development. Although elevated temperature resulted in a higher abundance and a higher net growth rate of Glaciecola spp. (Q10 ∼ 2.2), their growth was, in contrast to that of the bulk bacterial assemblages, not suppressed at 2°C and showed a similar pattern at 8°C. Independent of temperature, the highest abundance of Glaciecola spp. (24.0 ± 10.0% of total cell number) occurred during the peak of the phytoplankton bloom. Together with the slightly larger cell size of Glaciecola, this resulted in a ∼30% contribution of Glaciecola to total bacterial biomass. Overall, the results of this and previous studies suggest that Glaciecola has an ecological niche during early diatom blooms at low temperatures, when it becomes a dominant consumer of phytoplankton-derived dissolved organic matter.

Do drivers of biodiversity change differ in importance across marine and terrestrial systems - Or is it just different research communities' perspectives?

Cross-system studies on the response of different ecosystems to global change will support our understanding of ecological changes. Synoptic views on the planet's two main realms, the marine and terrestrial, however, are rare, owing to the development of rather disparate research communities. We combined questionnaires and a literature review to investigate how the importance of anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity change differs among marine and terrestrial systems and whether differences perceived by marine vs. terrestrial researchers are reflected by the scientific literature. This included asking marine and terrestrial researchers to rate the relevance of different drivers of global change for either marine or terrestrial biodiversity. Land use and the associated loss of natural habitats were rated as most important in the terrestrial realm, while the exploitation of the sea by fishing was rated as most important in the marine realm. The relevance of chemicals, climate change and the increasing atmospheric concentration of CO₂ were rated differently for marine and terrestrial biodiversity respectively. Yet, our literature review provided less evidence for such differences leading to the conclusion that while the history of the use of land and sea differs, impacts of global change are likely to become increasingly similar.

Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

Physiologically grounded metrics of model skill: a case study estimating heat stress in intertidal populations

Models of ecological responses to climate change fundamentally assume that predictor variables, which are often measured at large scales, are to some degree diagnostic of the smaller-scale biological processes that ultimately drive patterns of abundance and distribution. Given that organisms respond physiologically to stressors, such as temperature, in highly non-linear ways, small modelling errors in predictor variables can potentially result in failures to predict mortality or severe stress, especially if an organism exists near its physiological limits. As a result, a central challenge facing ecologists, particularly those attempting to forecast future responses to environmental change, is how to develop metrics of forecast model skill (the ability of a model to predict defined events) that are biologically meaningful and reflective of underlying processes. We quantified the skill of four simple models of body temperature (a primary determinant of physiological stress) of an intertidal mussel, Mytilus californianus, using common metrics of model performance, such as root mean square error, as well as forecast verification skill scores developed by the meteorological community. We used a physiologically grounded framework to assess each model's ability to predict optimal, sub-optimal, sub-lethal and lethal physiological responses. Models diverged in their ability to predict different levels of physiological stress when evaluated using skill scores, even though common metrics, such as root mean square error, indicated similar accuracy overall. Results from this study emphasize the importance of grounding assessments of model skill in the context of an organism's physiology and, especially, of considering the implications of false-positive and false-negative errors when forecasting the ecological effects of environmental change.

Using insights from animal behaviour and behavioural ecology to inform marine conservation initiatives

The impacts of human activities on the natural world are becoming increasingly apparent, with rapid development and exploitation occurring at the expense of habitat quality and biodiversity. Declines are especially concerning in the oceans, which hold intrinsic value due to their biological uniqueness as well as their substantial sociological and economic importance. Here, we review the literature and investigate whether incorporation of knowledge from the fields of animal behaviour and behavioural ecology may improve the effectiveness of conservation initiatives in marine systems. In particular, we consider (1) how knowledge of larval behaviour and ecology may be used to inform the design of marine protected areas, (2) how protecting species that hold specific ecological niches may be of particular importance for maximizing the preservation of biodiversity, (3) how current harvesting techniques may be inadvertently skewing the behavioural phenotypes of stock populations and whether changes to current practices may lessen this skew and reinforce population persistence, and (4) how understanding the behavioural and physiological responses of species to a changing environment may provide essential insights into areas of particular vulnerability for prioritized conservation attention. The complex nature of conservation programmes inherently results in interdisciplinary responses, and the incorporation of knowledge from the fields of animal behaviour and behavioural ecology may increase our ability to stem the loss of biodiversity in marine environments.

Equatorial range limits of an intertidal ectotherm are more linked to water than air temperature

As climate change is expected to impose increasing thermal stress on intertidal organisms, understanding the mechanisms by which body temperatures translate into major biogeographic patterns is of paramount importance. We exposed individuals of the limpet Patella vulgata Linnaeus, 1758, to realistic experimental treatments aimed at disentangling the contribution of water and air temperature for the buildup of thermal stress. Treatments were designed based on temperature data collected at the microhabitat level, from 15 shores along the Atlantic European coast spanning nearly 20° of latitude. Cardiac activity data indicated that thermal stress levels in P. vulgata are directly linked to elevated water temperature, while high air temperature is only stressful if water temperature is also high. In addition, the analysis of the link between population densities and thermal regimes at the studied locations suggests that the occurrence of elevated water temperature may represent a threshold P. vulgata is unable to tolerate. By combining projected temperatures with the temperature threshold identified, we show that climate change will likely result in the westward expansion of the historical distribution gap in the Bay of Biscay (southwest France), and northward contraction of the southern range limit in south Portugal. These findings suggest that even a minor relaxing of the upwelling off northwest Iberia could lead to a dramatic increase in thermal stress, with major consequences for the structure and functioning of the intertidal communities along Iberian rocky shores.

Warming-related shifts in the distribution of two competing coastal wrasses

Warming induces organisms to adapt or to move to track thermal optima, driving novel interspecific interactions or altering pre-existing ones. We investigated how rising temperatures can affect the distribution of two antagonist Mediterranean wrasses: the 'warm-water' Thalassoma pavo and the 'cool-water' Coris julis. Using field surveys and an extensive database of depth-related patterns of distribution of wrasses across 346 sites, last-decade and projected patterns of distribution for the middle (2040-2059) and the end of century (2080-2099) were analysed by a multivariate model-based framework. Results show that T. pavo dominates shallow waters at warmest locations, where C. julis locates deeper. The northernmost shallow locations are dominated by C. julis where T. pavo abundance is low. Projections suggest that the W-Mediterranean will become more suitable for T. pavo whilst large sectors of the E-Mediterranean will be unsuitable for C. julis, progressively restricting its distribution range. These shifts might result in fish communities' re-arrangement and novel functional responses throughout the food-web.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

Climate change velocity describes organism exposure to a modified climate, but as a distance-based metric, fails to consider that trajectories traverse dissimilar environments. Here, the authors calculate minimum cumulative exposure, finding that mountainous regions are particularly vulnerable.

Interspecific variation in the relationship between clutch size, laying date and intensity of urbanization in four species of hole-nesting birds

The increase in size of human populations in urban and agricultural areas has resulted in considerable habitat conversion globally. Such anthropogenic areas have specific environmental characteristics, which influence the physiology, life history, and population dynamics of plants and animals. For example, the date of bud burst is advanced in urban compared to nearby natural areas. In some birds, breeding success is determined by synchrony between timing of breeding and peak food abundance. Pertinently, caterpillars are an important food source for the nestlings of many bird species, and their abundance is influenced by environmental factors such as temperature and date of bud burst. Higher temperatures and advanced date of bud burst in urban areas could advance peak caterpillar abundance and thus affect breeding phenology of birds. In order to test whether laying date advance and clutch sizes decrease with the intensity of urbanization, we analyzed the timing of breeding and clutch size in relation to intensity of urbanization as a measure of human impact in 199 nest box plots across Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East (i.e., the Western Palearctic) for four species of hole‐nesters: blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), great tits (Parus major), collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca). Meanwhile, we estimated the intensity of urbanization as the density of buildings surrounding study plots measured on orthophotographs. For the four study species, the intensity of urbanization was not correlated with laying date. Clutch size in blue and great tits does not seem affected by the intensity of urbanization, while in collared and pied flycatchers it decreased with increasing intensity of urbanization. This is the first large‐scale study showing a species‐specific major correlation between intensity of urbanization and the ecology of breeding. The underlying mechanisms for the relationships between life history and urbanization remain to be determined. We propose that effects of food abundance or quality, temperature, noise, pollution, or disturbance by humans may on their own or in combination affect laying date and/or clutch size.

Trade-off among different anti-herbivore defence strategies along an altitudinal gradient

The type and intensity of plant-herbivore interactions are likely to be altered under climate change as a consequence of differential dispersal rates of plants and their herbivores. Here, we studied variation in herbivore damage on Salvia nubicola in the field and compared its growth and defence strategies against herbivores in controlled conditions using seeds from populations along a broad altitudinal gradient. Our work is one of the first studies to simultaneously measure complex intraspecific variation in plant growth, direct and indirect defences as well as plant tolerance (ability to regrow) as a consequence of herbivore attack simulated by clipping. In the field, we found that plants experienced higher herbivore pressure in lower altitudes. In the greenhouse, plants grown from seeds collected in lower-altitude populations grew better and produced a higher content of phenolic compounds (direct defence) and volatile organic compounds (indirect defence) in response to simulated herbivory. However, there were no differences in tolerance and effect of S. nubicola extracts on the model generalist herbivore Spodoptera littoralis (direct defence) along the altitudinal gradient. Although we found that S. nubicola developed a range of defence strategies, the strategies do not seem to be used simultaneously in all populations even though most of them are correlated with altitudinal gradient. Our finding is in agreement with the current knowledge that co-expression of multiple defences might be costly for a plant, since investment in defensive traits is assumed to reduce the resource availability for growth and reproduction. Our study thus shows the importance of simultaneous study of different defence strategies since understanding these trade-offs could be necessary for detecting the mechanisms by which plants are able to cope with future climate change.

Parasite Rates of Discovery, Global Species Richness and Host Specificity

If every metazoan species has at least one host-specific parasite, as several local scale studies have suggested, then half of all species could be parasites. However, host specificity varies significantly depending on host phylogeny, body size, habitat, and geographic distribution. The best studied hosts tend to be vertebrates, larger animals, and/or widespread, and thus have a higher number of parasites and host-specific parasites. Thus, host specificity for these well-known taxa cannot be simply extrapolated to other taxa, notably invertebrates, small sized, and more endemic species, which comprise the major portion of yet to be discovered species. At present, parasites of animals comprise about 5% of named species. This article analyzed the rate of description of several largely parasitic taxa within crustaceans (copepods, amphipods, isopods, pentastomids, cirripeds), marine helminths (nematodes, acanthocephalans, flukes), gastropod molluscs, insects (ticks, fleas, biting flies, strepispterans), and microsporidia. The period of highest discovery has been most recent for the marine helminths and microsporids. The number of people describing parasites has been increasing since the 1960s, as it has for all other taxa. However, the number of species being described per decade relative to the number of authors has been decreasing except for the helminths. The results indicate that more than half of all parasites have been described, and two-thirds of host taxa, although the proportion varies between taxa. It is highly unlikely that the number of named species of parasites will ever approach that of their hosts. This contrast between the proportion that parasites comprise of local and global faunas suggests that parasites are less host specific and more widespread than local scale studies suggest.

Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem

Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.