Evaluation of Mortality Data From the Social Security Administration Death Master File for Clinical Research

Presentation Acuity and Surgical Outcomes for Patients With Health Insurance Living in Highly Deprived Neighborhoods

Importance

Insurance coverage expansion has been proposed as a solution to improving health disparities, but insurance expansion alone may be insufficient to alleviate care access barriers.

Objective

To assess the association of Area Deprivation Index (ADI) with postsurgical textbook outcomes (TO) and presentation acuity for individuals with private insurance or Medicare.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2013-2019) merged with electronic health record data from 3 academic health care systems. Data were analyzed from June 2022 to August 2023.

Exposure

Living in a neighborhood with an ADI greater than 85.

Main Outcomes and Measures

TO, defined as absence of unplanned reoperations, Clavien-Dindo grade 4 complications, mortality, emergency department visits/observation stays, and readmissions, and presentation acuity, defined as having preoperative acute serious conditions (PASC) and urgent or emergent cases.

Results

Among a cohort of 29 924 patients, the mean (SD) age was 60.6 (15.6) years; 16 424 (54.9%) were female, and 13 500 (45.1) were male. A total of 14 306 patients had private insurance and 15 618 had Medicare. Patients in highly deprived neighborhoods (5536 patients [18.5%]), with an ADI greater than 85, had lower/worse odds of TO in both the private insurance group (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.87; 95% CI, 0.76-0.99; P = .04) and Medicare group (aOR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-1.00; P = .04) and higher odds of PASC and urgent or emergent cases. The association of ADIs greater than 85 with TO lost significance after adjusting for PASC and urgent/emergent cases. Differences in the probability of TO between the lowest-risk (ADI ≤85, no PASC, and elective surgery) and highest-risk (ADI >85, PASC, and urgent/emergent surgery) scenarios stratified by frailty were highest for very frail patients (Risk Analysis Index ≥40) with differences of 40.2% and 43.1% for those with private insurance and Medicare, respectively.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that patients living in highly deprived neighborhoods had lower/worse odds of TO and higher presentation acuity despite having private insurance or Medicare. These findings suggest that insurance coverage expansion alone is insufficient to overcome health care disparities, possibly due to persistent barriers to preventive care and other complex causes of health inequities.

Cheese consumption on atherosclerosis, atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases and its complications: A two-sample Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Evidence from prospective cohort studies has revealed an inverse association between cheese consumption and the development of atherosclerosis (AS), atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVD), and their complications. However, it remains unclear whether this observed association is influenced by potential confounding factors that may arise during the long-term development process of AS, ASCVD, and its complications. Therefore, to further clarify the causal relationship between cheese consumption and AS, ASCVD, and its complications, we conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to explore the causal association between cheese intake and the aforementioned health outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We employed a two-sample MR analysis based on publicly available genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to infer the causal relationship, with no overlap between their participating populations. The effect estimates were calculated using the random-effects inverse-variance-weighted method. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using Cochran's Q statistic, funnel plot, leave-one-out analysis, and MR-Egger intercept tests. The genetically predicted cheese intake was found to be associated with lower risks of coronary AS (odds ratio [OR] = 0.72, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.88, P = 0.001), peripheral vascular AS (OR = 0.56, 95 % CI 0.37-0.84, P = 0.006), other vascular AS (OR = 0.66, 95 % CI 0.44-0.99, P = 0.043), coronary artery disease (OR = 0.64, 95 % CI 0.56-0.74, P = 1.57e-09), angina pectoris (OR = 0.70, 95 % CI 0.58-0.84, P = 4.92e-05), myocardial infarction (OR = 0.63, 95 % CI 0.52-0.77, P = 3.56e-06), heart failure (OR = 0.62, 0.49-0.79, P = 1.20e-04), total ischemic stroke (OR = 0.76, 95 % CI 0.63-0.91, P = 0.003), peripheral artery disease (OR = 0.64, 95 % CI 0.43-0.95, P = 0.028), and cognitive impairment (OR = 0.65, 95 % CI 0.56-0.74, P = 3.40e-10). However, no associations were observed for cerebrovascular AS, arrhythmia, cardiac death, ischemic stroke (large artery AS), ischemic stroke (small vessel), ischemic stroke (cardioembolic), and transient ischemic attack.

CONCLUSION

This two-sample MR analysis reveals a causally inverse association between cheese intake and multi-vascular AS (including coronary AS, peripheral vascular AS, and other vascular AS), as well as multiple types of ASCVD and its complications (such as coronary artery disease, angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, heart failure, total ischemic stroke, and peripheral artery disease). The findings from this study may lay a stronger theoretical foundation and present new opportunities for the dietary management of future atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases.

Augmenting the Unites States transplant registry with external mortality data: A moving target ripe for further improvement

The Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network conducts a robust death verification process when augmenting the United States transplant registry with external sources of data. Process enhancements added over 35,000 externally verified deaths across waitlist candidates and transplant recipients for all organs beginning in April 2022. Ninety-four percent of added posttransplant deaths occurred beyond 5 years posttransplant, and over 74% occurred beyond 10 years. Deceased donor solid organ recipients transplanted from January 1, 2010, through October 31, 2020, were analyzed from January and July 2022 Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Standard Transplant Analysis and Research and the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients Standard Analysis Files to quantify the impact of including vs excluding unverified deaths (not releasable to researchers) on posttransplant patient survival estimates. Across all organs, 1- and 5-year posttransplant survival rates were not substantially impacted; meaningful differences were observed in 10-year survival among kidney recipients. These findings bear important implications for anyone who utilized transplant registry data to examine long-term outcomes prior to the updated verification process. Users of transplant surveillance data should interpret results of long-term outcomes cautiously, particularly differences across subpopulations, and the transplant community should identify ways to improve data quality and minimize the reporting burden on transplant institutions.

A Surgical Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) Reveals Complex Relationships Between Race/Ethnicity, Insurance Type, and Neighborhood Deprivation

OBJECTIVE

Develop an ordinal Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) for surgical outcomes to examine complex associations of Social Determinants of Health.

BACKGROUND

Studies focused on single or binary composite outcomes may not detect health disparities.

METHODS

Three health care system cohort study using NSQIP (2013-2019) linked with EHR and risk-adjusted for frailty, preoperative acute serious conditions (PASC), case status and operative stress assessing associations of multilevel Social Determinants of Health of race/ethnicity, insurance type (Private 13,957; Medicare 15,198; Medicaid 2835; Uninsured 2963) and Area Deprivation Index (ADI) on DOOR and the binary Textbook Outcomes (TO).

RESULTS

Patients living in highly deprived neighborhoods (ADI>85) had higher odds of PASC [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=1.13, CI=1.02-1.25, P <0.001] and urgent/emergent cases (aOR=1.23, CI=1.16-1.31, P <0.001). Increased odds of higher/less desirable DOOR scores were associated with patients identifying as Black versus White and on Medicare, Medicaid or Uninsured versus Private insurance. Patients with ADI>85 had lower odds of TO (aOR=0.91, CI=0.85-0.97, P =0.006) until adjusting for insurance. In contrast, patients with ADI>85 had increased odds of higher DOOR (aOR=1.07, CI=1.01-1.14, P <0.021) after adjusting for insurance but similar odds after adjusting for PASC and urgent/emergent cases.

CONCLUSIONS

DOOR revealed complex interactions between race/ethnicity, insurance type and neighborhood deprivation. ADI>85 was associated with higher odds of worse DOOR outcomes while TO failed to capture the effect of ADI. Our results suggest that presentation acuity is a critical determinant of worse outcomes in patients in highly deprived neighborhoods and without insurance. Including risk adjustment for living in deprived neighborhoods and urgent/emergent surgeries could improve the accuracy of quality metrics.

Comparative Merits of Available Mortality Data Sources for Clinical Research

Obtaining reliable data on patient mortality is a critical challenge facing observational researchers seeking to conduct studies using real-world data. As these analyses are conducted more broadly using newly-available sources of real-world evidence, missing data can serve as a rate-limiting factor. We conducted a comparison of mortality data sources from different stakeholder perspectives - academic medical center (AMC) informatics service providers, AMC research coordinators, industry analytics professionals, and academics - to understand the strengths and limitations of differing mortality data sources: locally generated data from sites conducting research, data provided by governmental sources, and commercially available data sets. Researchers seeking to conduct observational studies using extant data should consider these factors in sourcing outcomes data for their populations of interest.

Outcomes of octogenarians receiving aortic repair

OBJECTIVE

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair is recommended for aneurysms greater than 5.5 cm in men and 5 cm in women. Because AAA is more common among the elderly, we sought to evaluate contemporary practices of elective AAA repair and 2-year postoperative outcomes in octogenarians.

METHODS

We identified octogenarians undergoing elective AAA repair in the Vascular Quality Initiative from 2012 to 2019. We included patients undergoing endovascular (EVAR) and open (OAR) aortic repair. Demographics and comorbid conditions were compared between patient groups. Frailty was calculated using previously published methods. Patients with frailty scores above the 75th percentile of the operative cohort were considered high frailty. The primary outcome was 1- and 2-year mortality. Secondary outcomes included postoperative complications. Standard statistical methods were utilized. Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify factors that affect mortality.

RESULTS

The frequency of AAA repair in octogenarians has remained stable. Of all aortic operations, 21.4% were performed on octogenarians; 9735 (23.3% of 41,712) EVAR and 755 (10.3% of 7325) OARs. Among octogenarian patients, 42.0% of EVARs were under size thresholds: 48.3% males ≤5.5 cm diameter and 21.5% females ≤5.0 cm diameter compared with 18.8% OARs: 23.4% males and 10.7% females. Additionally, 25.6% had high frailty scores. Among octogenarians, 1- and 2-year mortality was 9.3% ± 0.3% and 14.8% ± 0.4% for EVAR and 15.2% ± 1.3% and 18.9% ± 1.5% for OAR patients, respectively (P < .01). In-hospital mortality rate was higher after OAR (0.87% EVAR vs 7.55% OAR; P < .01) and differed with frailty (EVAR, low frailty 0.2% vs high frailty 1.7%; OAR, low frailty 2.3% vs high frailty 15.6%). For EVAR, patient factors associated with mortality included heart failure (hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.25; P = .001) and dialysis (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.13-2.59; P = .012). For OAR, coronary artery disease (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 0.98-2.44; P = .062) was associated with mortality. Statin use was protective of mortality for all patients (EVAR: HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.60-0.78; P < .01): OAR: HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.37-0.92; P = .020). Among octogenarians, high frailty was independently associated with 2-year mortality (EVAR: HR, 3.36; 95% CI, 2.62-4.31; P < .01 and OAR: HR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.09-5.10; P = .030).

CONCLUSIONS

Nationally, a large portion of elective AAA repair in octogenarians is performed below recommended size thresholds, one-quarter of whom are frail with poor long-term 2-year mortality rates. High 2-year mortality following AAA repair in this age group exceeds the published risk of rupture for 5- to 5.5-cm AAA, suggesting that increase in the size threshold of elective repair among octogenarians should be explored.

Assessment of refeeding syndrome definitions and 30-day mortality in critically ill adults: A comparison study

BACKGROUND

Patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) are at high risk for refeeding syndrome (RFS), yet there is uncertainty regarding how RFS should be operationalized in the ICU. We evaluated different definitions for RFS and tested how they associated with patient-centered outcomes in the ICU.

METHODS

This was a retrospective comparison study. Patients age ≥18 years were eligible if they were newly initiated on enteral feeding while hospitalized in the ICU. Eight definitions for RFS were operationalized, including that from the American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition (ASPEN), all based on electrolyte levels from immediately before until up to 5 days after the initiation of enteral nutrition. Patients were followed for death or for ICU-free days, a measure of healthcare utilization.

RESULTS

In all, 2123 patients were identified, including 406 (19.1%) who died within 30 days of ICU admission and 1717 (80.9%) who did not. Prevalence of RFS varied from 1.5% to 88% (ASPEN definition) depending on the RFS definition used. The excess risk for death associated with RFS varied from 33% to 92% across definitions. The development of RFS based on the ASPEN definition was associated with a greater decrease in ICU-free days compared with other definitions, but the relationship was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Eight definitions for RFS were evaluated, none of which showed strong associations with death or ICU-free days. It may be challenging to achieve a standardized definition for RFS that is based on electrolyte values and predicts mortality or ICU-free days.

Cystic fibrosis-related mortality in the United States from 1999 to 2020: an observational analysis of time trends and disparities

Cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator modulators have revolutionized cystic fibrosis (CF) care in the past decade. This study explores the CF-related mortality trends in the US from 1999 to 2020. We extracted CF-related mortality data from the CDC WONDER database. CF age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were identified by ICD-10 code E84 and were stratified by demographic and geographical variables. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint modeling. CF-related ASMRs decreased from 1.9 to 1.04 per million population (p = 0.013), with a greater reduction in recent years. This trend was replicated in both sexes. The median age of death increased from 24 to 37 years. CF mortality rates decreased across sex, white race, non-Hispanic ethnicity, census regions, and urbanization status. Incongruent trends were reported in non-white races and Hispanic ethnicity. A lower median age of death was observed in women, non-white races, and Hispanic ethnicity. SARS-CoV-2 infection was the primary cause of death in 1.7% of CF decedents in 2020. The national CF-related mortality rates declined and the median age of death among CF decedents increased significantly indicating better survival in the recent years. The changes were relatively slow during the earlier period of the study, followed by a greater decline lately. We observed patterns of sex, ethnic, racial, and geographical disparities associated with the worsening of the gap between ethnicities, narrowing of the gap between races and rural vs. urban counties, and closing of the gap between sexes over the study period.

Improving Real-World Mortality Data Quality in Oncology Research: Augmenting Electronic Medical Records With Obituary, Social Security Death Index, and Commercial Claims Data

PURPOSE

This study evaluated the relative improvements in mortality data capture of adding different external data to enriched electronic medical records (EMRs) for patients with melanoma.

METHODS

An enriched EMR database, containing structured and unstructured data, was used to evaluate the incremental mortality data capture of the following external data sources: Social Security Administration (SSA), public obituary, and an administrative open-claims database for the claims data set. Overall survival (OS) was assessed for each data set and the composite data set using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

A total of 3,882 patients were included in the study. The enriched EMR data set identified 1,085 patients with a death record. The SSA data set identified 213 patients (73 unique when combined with enriched EMR) with a death record, while the obituary data set identified 1,127 patients (241 unique). The administrative claims data set identified 378 patients (73 unique) with a death record; however, all these unique patients were already accounted for in the combined SSA and obituary data set. The composite data set yielded a median OS of 13.39 years, about 4 years shorter than the enriched EMR data set alone (17.63 years).

CONCLUSION

When the enriched EMR data set was augmented with one external data set, the obituary data set provided the most additional value, followed by claims, and then SSA. The augmentation of all the data sources had a significant impact on the OS results compared with enriched EMR alone.

Association of Cumulative Colorectal Surgery Hospital Costs, Readmissions, and Emergency Department/Observation Stays with Insurance Type

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Medicare's Hospital Readmission Reduction Program disproportionately penalizes safety-net hospitals (SNH) caring for vulnerable populations. This study assessed the association of insurance type with 30-day emergency department visits/observation stays (EDOS), readmissions, and cumulative costs in colorectal surgery patients.

METHODS

Retrospective inpatient cohort study using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2013-2019) with cost data in a SNH. The odds of EDOS and readmissions and cumulative variable (index hospitalization and all 30-day EDOS and readmissions) costs were modeled adjusting for frailty, case status, presence of a stoma, and open versus laparoscopic surgery.

RESULTS

The cohort had 245 private, 195 Medicare, and 590 Medicaid/uninsured cases, with a mean age 55.0 years (SD = 13.3) and 52.9% of the cases were performed on male patients. Most cases were open surgeries (58.7%). Complication rates were 41.8%, EDOS 12.0%, and readmissions 20.1%. Medicaid/uninsured had increased odds of urgent/emergent surgeries (aOR = 2.15, CI = 1.56-2.98, p < 0.001) and complications (aOR = 1.43, CI = 1.02-2.03, p = 0.042) versus private patients. Medicaid/uninsured versus private patients had higher EDOS (16.6% versus 4.1%) and readmissions (22.9% versus 14.3%) rates and higher odds of EDOS (aOR = 4.81, CI = 2.57-10.06, p < 0.001), and readmissions (aOR = 1.62, CI = 1.07-2.50, p = 0.025), while Medicare patients had similar odds versus private. Cumulative variable cost %change was increased for Medicare and Medicaid/uninsured, but Medicaid/uninsured was similar to private after adjusting for urgent/emergent cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased urgent/emergent cases in Medicaid/uninsured populations drive increased complications odds and higher costs compared to private patients, suggesting lack of access to outpatient care. SNH care for higher cost populations, receive lower reimbursements, and are penalized by value-based programs. Increasing healthcare access for Medicaid/uninsured patients could reduce urgent/emergent surgeries, resulting in fewer complications, EDOS/readmissions, and costs.

Outcome after revascularization with paclitaxel-coated devices in patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia

OBJECTIVE

Data regarding the safety and efficacy of paclitaxel (PTX)-coated peripheral arterial devices for femoropopliteal artery (FPA) atherosclerotic disease is derived from studies that mainly evaluated patients with claudication. Outcomes of PTX treatment for patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) is incompletely defined. This study compares outcome in patients with CLTI treated with and without PTX.

METHODS

We retrospectively studied patients who underwent FPA intervention for an indication of CLTI in the Vascular Quality Initiative peripheral vascular intervention database from 2016 to 2020. Patients who had concomitant iliac or tibial interventions were included. One limb per patient was studied. Propensity score matching based on demographics, comorbidities, indication, and pharmacological therapy was performed to generate balanced cohorts. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariate Cox regression compared limb salvage, overall survival, primary patency, and major adverse limb events (MALE) between patients treated with and without PTX.

RESULTS

Demographics, comorbidities, indications, and procedural details were similar between 14,065 PTX and 14,065 non-PTX propensity-matched patients. Kaplan-Meier analysis at 18-month follow-up demonstrated that the PTX group compared with the non-PTX group had a significantly higher rates of limb salvage (89.2% vs 86.5%; P < .001), primary patency (80.3% vs 76.9%; P < .001), and freedom from MALE (72.6% vs 67.9%; P < .001). Multivariate analysis also showed that PTX treatment was associated with a lower risk of major amputation (hazard ratio [HR], 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67-0.82; P < .001), loss of primary patency (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.74-0.87; P < .001), and MALE (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.72-0.82; P < .001). Overall, 21% of patients had a prior ipsilateral peripheral vascular intervention. Removing these patients from the analysis yielded similar results at 18 months. Overall survival at 54 months was not statistically different between the PTX and non-PTX groups in the overall cohort (73.5 vs 71.3%; P = .07), but significant in the de-novo treated patients (73.9% vs 70.7%; P = .02).Multivariate analyses showed a lower mortality risk in the PTX patients (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.87-0.98; P = .02).

CONCLUSIONS

FPA intervention with a PTX-coated device is associated with improved limb salvage, primary patency, and freedom from MALE at the 18-month follow-up compared with uncoated devices. This benefit was not associated with an increase in all-cause mortality out to 4.5 years. Further study is necessary to determine the optimal role for PTX in the treatment of the FPA for patients with CLTI and to understand its long-term outcome.

Cost of Failure to Achieve Textbook Outcomes: Association of Insurance Type with Outcomes and Cumulative Cost for Inpatient Surgery

BACKGROUND

Surgical outcome/cost analyses typically focus on single outcomes and do not include encounters beyond the index hospitalization.

STUDY DESIGN

This cohort study used NSQIP (2013-2019) data with electronic health record and cost data risk-adjusted for frailty, preoperative acute serious conditions (PASC), case status, and operative stress assessing cumulative costs of failure to achieve textbook outcomes defined as absence of 30-day Clavien-Dindo level III and IV complications, emergency department visits/observation stays (EDOS), and readmissions across insurance types (private, Medicare, Medicaid, uninsured). Return costs were defined as costs of all 30-day emergency department visits/observation stays and readmissions.

RESULTS

Cases were performed on patients (private 1,506; Medicare 1,218; Medicaid 1,420; uninsured 2,178) with a mean age 52.3 years (SD 14.7) and 47.5% male. Medicaid and uninsured patients had higher odds of presenting with preoperative acute serious conditions (adjusted odds ratios 1.89 and 1.81, respectively) and undergoing urgent/emergent surgeries (adjusted odds ratios 2.23 and 3.02, respectively) vs private. Medicaid and uninsured patients had lower odds of textbook outcomes (adjusted odds ratios 0.53 and 0.78, respectively) and higher odds of emergency department visits/observation stays and readmissions vs private. Not achieving textbook outcomes was associated with a greater than 95.1% increase in cumulative costs. Medicaid patients had a relative increase of 23.1% in cumulative costs vs private, which was 18.2% after adjusting for urgent/emergent cases. Return costs were 37.5% and 65.8% higher for Medicaid and uninsured patients, respectively, vs private.

CONCUSIONS

Higher costs for Medicaid patients were partially driven by increased presentation acuity (increased rates/odds of preoperative acute serious conditions and urgent/emergent surgeries) and higher rates of multiple emergency department visits/observation stays and readmission occurrences. Decreasing surgical costs/improving outcomes should focus on reducing urgent/emergent surgeries and improving postoperative care coordination, especially for Medicaid and uninsured populations.

Association of Frailty and the Expanded Operative Stress Score with Preoperative Acute Serious Conditions, Complications, and Mortality in Males Compared to Females: A Retrospective Observational Study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to expand Operative Stress Score (OSS) increasing procedural coverage and assessing OSS and frailty association with Preoperative Acute Serious Conditions (PASC), complications and mortality in females versus males.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Veterans Affairs male-dominated study showed high mortality in frail veterans even after very low stress surgeries (OSS1).

METHODS

Retrospective cohort using NSQIP data (2013-2019) merged with 180-day postoperative mortality from multiple hospitals to evaluate PASC, 30-day complications and 30-, 90-, and 180-day mortality.

RESULTS

OSS expansion resulted in 98.2% case coverage versus 87.0% using the original. Of 82,269 patients (43.8% male), 7.9% were frail/very frail. Males had higher odds of PASC [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21-1.41, P < 0.001] and severe/life-threatening Clavien-Dindo IV (CDIV) complications (aOR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.09-1.28, P < 0.001). Although mortality rates were higher (all time-points, P < 0.001) in males versus females, mortality was similar after adjusting for frailty, OSS, and case status primarily due to increased male frailty scores. Additional adjustments for PASC and CDIV resulted in a lower odds of mortality in males (30-day, aOR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.71-0.92, P = 0.002) that was most pronounced for males with PASC compared to females with PASC (30-day, aOR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.56-0.99, P = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Similar to the male-dominated Veteran population, private sector, frail patients have high likelihood of postoperative mortality, even after low-stress surgeries. Preoperative frailty screening should be performed regardless of magnitude of the procedure. Despite males experiencing higher adjusted odds of PASC and CDIV complications, females with PASC had higher odds of mortality compared to males, suggesting differences in the aggressiveness of care provided to men and women.

Performance drift in a mortality prediction algorithm among patients with cancer during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Sudden changes in health care utilization during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic may have impacted the performance of clinical predictive models that were trained prior to the pandemic. In this study, we evaluated the performance over time of a machine learning, electronic health record-based mortality prediction algorithm currently used in clinical practice to identify patients with cancer who may benefit from early advance care planning conversations. We show that during the pandemic period, algorithm identification of high-risk patients had a substantial and sustained decline. Decreases in laboratory utilization during the peak of the pandemic may have contributed to drift. Calibration and overall discrimination did not markedly decline during the pandemic. This argues for careful attention to the performance and retraining of predictive algorithms that use inputs from the pandemic period.

Assessment of the Social Security Administration Death Master File for Comparative Analysis Studies of Peripheral Vascular Devices

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to assess the reliability the Social Security Administration Death Master File (SSADMF) for evaluating mortality in comparative peripheral vascular device studies.

METHODS

We leveraged 2 versions of an administrative claims data set that were identical except for the source of mortality data. The SSADMF was the primary source of mortality records in one version. The SSADMF was combined with mortality from Medicare beneficiary records in the other. Our study was set in the context of a comparative effectiveness analysis of recent Food and Drug Administration interest involving peripheral paclitaxel-coated devices. Mortality of patients with Medicare Advantage insurance coverage from 2015 to 2018 who underwent femoropopliteal artery revascularization with a drug-coated device (DCD) or non-DCD was assessed through 2019. Covariate differences between treatment groups were adjusted by inverse propensity treatment weighting. The hazard ratio of DCD to non-DCD mortality was estimated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidences of mortality differed substantially between versions of the data. Nevertheless, we could not reject the null hypothesis that the hazard ratios of the SSADMF (1.05; 95% confidence interval 0.95-1.17) and the Master Beneficiary Summary File/SSADMF (1.03; 95% confidence interval 0.96-1.11) were the same (P = .63).

CONCLUSIONS

The SSADMF is a common source of mortality records in the United States that can be linked to real-world data sources but is known to underreport mortality rates. We find that the SSADMF provides a reliable source of all-cause mortality for a comparative study assessing the safety of peripheral vascular devices.

Evaluating novel methods of outcome assessment following cardiac arrest

INTRODUCTION

We compared novel methods of long-term follow-up after resuscitation from cardiac arrest to a query of the National Death Index (NDI). We hypothesized use of the electronic health record (EHR), and internet-based sources would have high sensitivity for identifying decedents identified by the NDI.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study including patients treated after cardiac arrest at a single academic center from 2010 to 2018. We evaluated two novel methods to ascertain long-term survival and modified Rankin Scale (mRS): 1) a structured chart review of our health system's EHR; and 2) an internet-based search of: a) local newspapers, b) Ancestry.com, c) Facebook, d) Twitter, e) Instagram, and f) Google. If a patient was not reported deceased by any source, we considered them to be alive. We compared results of these novel methods to the NDI to calculate sensitivity. We queried the NDI for 200 in-hospital decedents to evaluate sensitivity against a true criterion standard.

RESULTS

We included 1,097 patients, 897 (82%) alive at discharge and 200 known decedents (18%). NDI identified 197/200 (99%) of known decedents. The EHR and local newspapers had highest sensitivity compared to the NDI (87% and 86% sensitivity, respectively). Online sources identified 10 likely decedents not identified by the NDI. Functional status estimated from EHR, and internet sources at follow up agreed in 38% of alive patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Novel methods of outcome assessment are an alternative to NDI for determining patients' vital status. These methods are less reliable for estimating functional status.

Association Between Time to Source Control in Sepsis and 90-Day Mortality

Importance

Rapid source control is recommended to improve patient outcomes in sepsis. Yet there are few data to guide how rapidly source control is required.

Objective

To determine the association between time to source control and patient outcomes in community-acquired sepsis.

Design, Setting, and Particpants

Multihospital integrated health care system cohort study of hospitalized adults (January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017) with community-acquired sepsis as defined by Sepsis-3 who underwent source control procedures. Follow-up continued through January 1, 2019, and data analyses were completed March 17, 2022.

Exposures

Early (<6 hours) compared with late (6-36 hours) source control as well as each hour of source control delay (1-36 hours) from sepsis onset.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Multivariable models were clustered at the level of hospital with adjustment for patient factors, sepsis severity, resource availability, and the physiologic stress of procedures generating adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% CI.

Results

Of 4962 patients with sepsis (mean [SD] age, 62 [16] years; 52% male; 85% White; mean [SD] Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, 3.8 [2.5]), source control occurred at a median (IQR) of 15.4 hours (5.5-21.7) after sepsis onset, with 1315 patients (27%) undergoing source control within 6 hours. The crude 90-day mortality was similar for early and late source control (n = 177 [14%] vs n = 529 [15%]; P = .35). In multivariable models, early source control was associated with decreased risk-adjusted odds of 90-day mortality (aOR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.63-0.80). This association was greater among gastrointestinal and abdominal (aOR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.43-0.80) and soft tissue interventions (aOR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.55-0.95) compared with orthopedic and cranial interventions (aOR, 1.33; 95% CI, 0.96-1.83; P < .001 for interaction).

Conclusions and Relevance

Source control within 6 hours of community-acquired sepsis onset was associated with a reduced risk-adjusted odds of 90-day mortality. Prioritizing the rapid identification of septic foci and initiation of source control interventions can reduce the number of avoidable deaths among patients with sepsis.

Discrimination and Calibration of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 for Predicting Mortality Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in North America

BACKGROUND

The updated Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 combines general and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-specific biomarkers to generate a continuous score that accurately discriminates risk of mortality in diverse cohorts of persons with HIV (PWH), but a score alone is difficult to interpret. Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration (NA-ACCORD), we translate VACS Index 2.0 scores into validated probability estimates of mortality.

METHODS

Because complete mortality ascertainment is essential for accurate calibration, we restricted analyses to cohorts with mortality from the National Death Index or equivalent sources. VACS Index 2.0 components were ascertained from October 1999 to April 2018. Mortality was observed up to March 2019. Calibration curves compared predicted (estimated by fitting a gamma model to the score) to observed mortality overall and within subgroups: cohort (VACS/NA-ACCORD subset), sex, age <50 or ≥50 years, race/ethnicity, HIV-1 RNA ≤500 or >500 copies/mL, CD4 count <350 or ≥350 cells/µL, and years 1999-2009 or 2010-2018. Because mortality rates have decreased over time, the final model was limited to 2010-2018.

RESULTS

Among 37230 PWH in VACS and 8061 PWH in the NA-ACCORD subset, median age was 53 and 44 years; 3% and 19% were women; and 48% and 39% were black. Discrimination in NA-ACCORD (C-statistic = 0.842 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .830-.854]) was better than in VACS (C-statistic = 0.813 [95% CI, .809-.817]). Predicted and observed mortality largely overlapped in VACS and the NA-ACCORD subset, overall and within subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on this validation, VACS Index 2.0 can reliably estimate probability of all-cause mortality, at various follow-up times, among PWH in North America.

Event Rates and Risk Factors for Recurrent Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in a Contemporary Post Acute Coronary Syndrome Population Representing 239 234 Patients During 2005 to 2018 in the United States

Background

Patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are recognized by guidelines as remaining at high risk for adverse outcomes. Evidence from contemporary, representative ACS populations in a clinical practice setting is necessary to identify subgroups and strategies for improving patient outcomes. We aimed to describe event rates and risk factors in an ACS population over prolonged follow‐up for cardiovascular end points.

Methods and Results

We identified 239 234 patients in the Optum Research Database (57.2% men; mean [standard deviation] age, 69.2 [12.2] years) with evidence of an ACS hospitalization (index ACS) during January 1, 2005 through December 30, 2018. Subgroups were based on index ACS event (myocardial infarction/unstable angina and revascularization status) and the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction Risk Score for Secondary Prevention. The 5‐year event rate for the primary end point representing nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular death was 33.4% (95% CI, 33.1%–33.7%; P<0.001). The risk of experiencing the primary end point was ≈6‐fold higher immediately after discharge (≈40.9% annualized risk) as compared with the period 1+ years after hospitalization (≈6.4% annualized risk). Among subgroups, the 5‐year primary end point event rate was highest for myocardial infarction without revascularization and a Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction Risk Score for Secondary Prevention ≥4, at 47.9% (95% CI, 47.3%–48.4%; P<0.001) and 56.7% (95% CI, 55.9%–57.4%; P<0.001), respectively.

Conclusions

Patients with ACS remain at very high risk of experiencing recurrent cardiovascular events, particularly early after discharge, with identifiable subgroups at multifold higher risk of specific clinical end points.

Vascular Quality Initiative Surveillance of Femoropopliteal Artery Paclitaxel Devices

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to determine the safety and efficacy of paclitaxel (PTX) devices in the treatment of peripheral artery disease involving the femoropopliteal artery.

BACKGROUND

A meta-analysis of PTX devices for the treatment of femoropopliteal artery disease reported a mortality signal.

METHODS

This was a multicenter cohort study using an integrated clinical data surveillance system to conduct a prospective, propensity score-matched survival analysis of 2,456 patients in the Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative from January 2017 to May 2020. The study compared PTX drug-coated balloon angioplasty versus percutaneous transluminal balloon angioplasty, PTX drug-eluting stents versus bare-metal stents, and any PTX device versus any non-PTX device. The primary outcome was 2-year survival. Secondary endpoints were successful ambulation and interventional success.

RESULTS

Treatment with any PTX device versus any non-PTX device was associated with increased 2-year survival (89.5% vs 86.7%; HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.72-0.87; P = 0.004), improved interventional success (81.6% vs 77.6%; HR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.74-0.91; P < 0.001), and higher rates of independent ambulation at 1 year (86.0% vs 83.4%; HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.79-0.91; P = 0.008). Treatment with PTX drug-coated balloon angioplasty was associated with improved survival at 2 years (88.9% vs 85.7%; HR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.70-0.86; P = 0.005), while PTX drug-eluting stent therapy was associated with similar survival compared with bare-metal stent therapy (91.3% vs 89.6%; HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.70-1.01; P = 0.36).

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective, active surveillance of a national clinical registry, PTX-containing devices were associated with increased survival at 2 years and improved clinical outcomes at 1 year. (VQI DELTA Paclitaxel Device Safety Analysis [VQI-PTX]; NCT04110288).

The Epidemiology of Extremity Threat and Amputation Following Vasopressor-dependent Sepsis

RATIONALE

Extremity threat and amputation following sepsis is a well-publicized and devastating event. However, there is a paucity of data exists surrounding theabout the epidemiology of extmreityextremity threat following sepsis onset.

OBJECTIVES

We aim toTo estimate the incidence of extremity threat with or without surgical amputation in community sepsis.

METHODS

Multihospital Rretrospective cohort study of adults with Sepsis-3 hospitalized at XX14 academic and community sites from 2013 to 2017. Vasopressor-dependent sepsis was identified by administration epinephrine, norepinephrine, phenylephrine, vasopressin, or dopamine for >1 hour during the 48 hours before to 24 hours following sepsis onset. Outcomes included the incidence of extremity threat, defined as acute onset ischemia, with or without amputation in the 90 days following sepsis onset. The association between extremity threat, and demographics, comorbid conditions, and, and time-varying sepsis treatment factorss were evaluated using a Cox-proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Among 24,365 adults with sepsis, 12,060 (54%) were vasopressor-dependent (mean±standard deviation SD age, 64±16 years; male, 6,548 [54%]; sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), 10±4). Of these, 231 (2%) patients had a threatened extremity with 26 undergoing 37 amputations, a risk of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.4-3.2) per 1,000, and 205 not undergoing amputation, a risk of 17.0 (95% CI: 14.8-19.5) per 1,000. 95% of the total 37Most amputations occurred in lower extremities (95%), a median (interquartile range) of 16 (6.3-4039.9) days after sepsis onset. Compared to patients with no extremity threat, patients with threat had a higher sequential organ failure assessmentSOFA score (11±4 vs 10±4; P < 0.001), serum lactate (4.6 mmol/L [2.4-8.7] vs 3.1 [1.7-6.0]; P < 0.001), and more bacteremia (n = 37 [37%??] vs n = 2,087 [26%]; P < 0.001) at sepsis onset. Peripheral vascular disease, congestive heart failure, sequential organ failure assessmentSOFA score, and norepinephrine equivalents were significantly associated with the risk of extremity threat.

CONCLUSIONS

The evaluation of a threatened extremity resulting in surgical amputation occurred in 2 per 1,000 patients with vasopressor-dependent sepsis.

Loss of Pulmonary Vascular Volume as a Predictor of Right Ventricular Dysfunction and Mortality in Acute Pulmonary Embolism

BACKGROUND

In acute pulmonary embolism, chest computed tomography angiography derived metrics, such as the right ventricle (RV): left ventricle ratio are routinely used for risk stratification. Paucity of intraparenchymal blood vessels has previously been described, but their association with clinical biomarkers and outcomes has not been studied. We sought to determine if small vascular volumes measured on computed tomography scans were associated with an abnormal RV on echocardiography and mortality. We hypothesized that decreased small venous volume would be associated with greater RV dysfunction and increased mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of patients with intermediate risk pulmonary embolism admitted to Brigham and Women's Hospital between 2009 and 2017 was assembled, and clinical and radiographic data were obtained. We performed 3-dimensional reconstructions of vasculature to assess intraparenchymal vascular volumes. Statistical analyses were performed using multivariable regression and cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, sex, lung volume, and small arterial volume.

RESULTS

Seven hundred twenty-two subjects were identified of whom 573 had documented echocardiography. A 50% reduction in small venous volume was associated with an increased risk of RV dilation (relative risk: 1.38 [95% CI, 1.18-1.63], P<0.001), RV dysfunction (relative risk: 1.62 [95% CI, 1.36-1.95], P<0.001), and RV strain (relative risk: 1.67 [95% CI, 1.37-2.04], P<0.001); increased cardiac biomarkers, and higher 30-day and 90-day mortality (hazard ratio: 2.50 [95% CI, 1.33-4.67], P=0.004 and hazard ratio: 1.84 [95% CI, 1.11-3.04], P=0.019, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Loss of small venous volume quantified from computed tomography angiography is associated with increased risk of abnormal RV on echocardiography, abnormal cardiac biomarkers, and higher risk of 30- and 90-day mortality. Small venous volume may be a useful marker for assessing disease severity in acute pulmonary embolism.

Combining Multiple Decedent Data Sources for a Population-Based Picture of End-of-Life Healthcare Utilization

CONTEXT

Although health systems need to track utilization and mortality, it can be difficult to obtain reliable information on patients who die outside of the health system. This leads to missing data and introduces the potential for bias.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the linkage of patient death data sources with a tertiary health system electronic health record (EHR) to increase the accuracy of health system end-of-life healthcare utilization data in the last month and six months of life.

METHODS

The federal Death Master File (DMF) and North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (NC DHHS) decedent files from 2017 and 2018 were linked to a health system EHR. Descriptive statistics and chi-square tests were utilized to define impact of additional data sources with demographic data and end-of-life utilization.

RESULTS

A total of 65,935 patient deaths were identified through our multi-step data integration process. Approximately a quarter of patients (28.3%) had at least one inpatient or outpatient health system encounter in the last six months of life. Of these, patient deaths identified only in the NC DHHS file were less likely (OR 0.45 [95%CI 0.39-0.52]) to be hospitalized in the last month of life.

CONCLUSION

We describe a method to supplement EHR data with decedent information across data sources. While additional decedent data improves the accuracy of death data in the health system, patient healthcare utilization is biased towards those who use the health system at the end of life.

High Socioeconomic Deprivation and Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Outcomes: Insights from Michigan

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular outcomes are worse among individuals from areas with limited socioeconomic resources. This study evaluated the relationship between high socioeconomic deprivation and isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) outcomes.

METHODS

We linked statewide Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database data to Medicare fee-for-service records for 10,423 Michigan residents undergoing isolated CABG between 01/2012-12/2018. High socioeconomic deprivation was defined as residing in the highest decile of zip code-level area deprivation index (ADI). Multivariable logistic regression estimated the relationship between top ADI decile and major morbidity, in-hospital mortality, and operative mortality. Survival analyses evaluated long-term survival comparing patients in the top versus not in the top ADI decile.

RESULTS

A total of 1,036 patients were in the top decile of ADI (ADI>82.4), and were more likely to be female, black, and have a higher predicted risk of mortality. Patients in the top ADI decile had significantly higher rates of major morbidity (17.4% versus 11.4%, adjusted odds ratio =1.26, 95% CI: 1.04-1.54, p=0.021) and in-hospital mortality (3.2% versus 1.3%, adjusted odds ratio=1.84, 95% CI: 1.18-2.86, p=0.007), but not operative mortality. The adjusted hazard of mortality was 16% higher for patients residing in the top ADI decile (95% CI: 1.01-1.33, p=0.032).

CONCLUSIONS

Isolated CABG patients residing in the highest areas of socioeconomic deprivation differed with respect to demographic and clinical characteristics, and experienced worse short and long-term outcomes compared with those not in the top ADI decile.

Ascertaining Nonfatal Endpoints in Clinical Trials: Central Adjudication Versus Patient Insurance Claims

BACKGROUND

The 21st Century Cures Act allows the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to utilize real-world data (RWD) to create real-world evidence (RWE) for new indications or post approval study requirements. We compared central adjudication with two insurance claims data sources to understand how endpoint accuracy differences impact RWE results.

METHODS

We developed a decision analytic model to compare differences in efficacy (all-cause death, stroke and myocardial infarction) and safety (bleeding requiring transfusion) results for a simulated acute coronary syndrome antiplatelet therapy clinical trial. Endpoint accuracy metrics were derived from previous studies that compared centrally-adjudicated and insurance claims-based clinical trial endpoints.

RESULTS

Efficacy endpoint results per 100 patients were similar for the central adjudication model (intervention event rate, 11.3; control, 13.7; difference, 2.4) and the prospective claims data collection model (intervention event rate, 11.2; control 13.6; difference, 2.3). However, the retrospective claims linking model's efficacy results were larger (intervention event rate, 14.6; control, 18.0; difference, 3.4). True positive event rate results (intervention, control and difference) for both insurance claims-based models were less than the central adjudication model due to false negative events. Differences in false positive event rates were responsible for differences in efficacy results for the two insurance claims-based models.

CONCLUSION

Efficacy endpoint results differed by data source. Investigators need guidance to determine which data sources produce regulatory-grade RWE.

Measuring All-Cause Mortality With the Census Numident File

OBJECTIVES

To assess the quality of population-level US mortality data in the US Census Bureau Numerical Identification file (Numident) and describe the details of the mortality information as well as the novel person-level linkages available when using the Census Numident.

METHODS

We compared all-cause mortality in the Census Numident to published vital statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We provide detailed information on the linkage of the Census Numident to other Census Bureau survey, administrative, and economic data.

RESULTS

Death counts in the Census Numident are similar to those from published mortality vital statistics. Yearly comparisons show that the Census Numident captures more deaths since 1997, and coverage is slightly lower going back in time. Weekly estimates show similar trends from both data sets.

CONCLUSIONS

The Census Numident is a high-quality and timely source of data to study all-cause mortality. The Census Bureau makes available a vast and rich set of restricted-use, individual-level data linked to the Census Numident for researchers to use.

PUBLIC HEALTH IMPLICATIONS

The Census Numident linked to data available from the Census Bureau provides infrastructure for doing evidence-based public health policy research on mortality.

Accuracy of Cardiovascular Trial Outcome Ascertainment and Treatment Effect Estimates from Routine Health Data: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Registry-based randomized controlled trials allow for outcome ascertainment using routine health data (RHD). While this method provides a potential solution to the rising cost and complexity of clinical trials, comparative analyses of outcome ascertainment by clinical end point committee (CEC) adjudication compared with RHD sources are sparse. Among cardiovascular trials, we set out to systematically compare the incidence of cardiovascular events and estimated randomized treatment effects ascertained from RHD versus traditional clinical evaluation and adjudication.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE (1976 to August 2020) for studies where outcome ascertainment was performed by both RHD and CEC adjudication to compare the incidence of cardiovascular events and treatment effects. We derived ratios of hazard ratios to compare treatment effects from RHD and CEC adjudication. We pooled ratios of hazard ratios using an inverse variance random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Nine studies (1988-2020; 32 156 patients) involving 10 randomized control trials compared outcome ascertainment with RHD and CEC in patients with or at risk of cardiovascular disease. There was a high degree of agreement and interrater reliability between CEC and RHD outcome determination for all-cause mortality (agreement percentage: 98.4%-100% and κ: 0.95-1.0) and cardiovascular mortality (agreement percentage: 97.8%-99.9% and κ: 0.66-0.99). For myocardial infarction, the κ values ranged from 0.67-0.98, and for stroke the values ranged from 0.52-0.89. In contrast, the κ value for peripheral artery disease was low (κ: 0.27). There was little difference in the randomized treatment effect derived from CEC and RHD ascertainment of events based on the ratios of hazard ratio, with pooled ratios of hazard ratios ranging from 0.93 (95% CI, 0.63-1.39) for cardiovascular mortality to 1.27 (95% CI, 0.67-2.41) for stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical outcome ascertainment using retrospectively acquired RHD displayed high levels of agreement with CEC adjudication for identifying all-cause mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. Importantly, cardiovascular treatment effects in randomized control trials determined from RHD and CEC resulted in similar point estimates. Overall, our review supports the use of RHD as a potential alternative source for clinical outcome ascertainment in cardiovascular trials. Validation studies with prospectively planned linkage are warranted.

Validating the Matching of Patients in the Linkage of a Large Hospital System's EHR with State and National Death Databases

Background  Though electronic health record (EHR) data have been linked to national and state death registries, such linkages have rarely been validated for an entire hospital system's EHR.

Objectives  The aim of the study is to validate West Virginia University Medicine's (WVU Medicine) linkage of its EHR to three external death registries: the Social Security Death Masterfile (SSDMF), the national death index (NDI), the West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources (DHHR).

Methods  Probabilistic matching was used to link patients to NDI and deterministic matching for the SSDMF and DHHR vital statistics records (WVDMF). In subanalysis, we used deaths recorded in Epic ( n  = 30,217) to further validate a subset of deaths captured by the SSDMF, NDI, and WVDMF.

Results  Of the deaths captured by the SSDMF, 59.8 and 68.5% were captured by NDI and WVDMF, respectively; for deaths captured by NDI this co-capture rate was 80 and 78%, respectively, for the SSDMF and WVDMF. Kappa statistics were strongest for NDI and WVDMF (61.2%) and NDI and SSDMF (60.6%) and weakest for SSDMF and WVDMF (27.9%). Of deaths recorded in Epic, 84.3, 85.5, and 84.4% were captured by SSDMF, NDI, and WVDMF, respectively. Less than 2% of patients' deaths recorded in Epic were not found in any of the death registries. Finally, approximately 0.2% of “decedents” in any death registry re-emerged in Epic at least 6 months after their death date, a very small percentage and thus further validating the linkages.

Conclusion  NDI had greatest validity in capturing deaths in our EHR. As a similar, though slightly less capture and agreement rate in identifying deaths is observed for SSDMF and state vital statistics records, these registries may be reasonable alternatives to NDI for research and quality assurance studies utilizing entire EHRs from large hospital systems. Investigators should also be aware that there will be a very tiny fraction of “dead” patients re-emerging in the EHR.

Association of Both High and Low Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction With Increased Risk After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

BACKGROUND

While reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is a known risk factor for complications after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), the relevance of higher LVEF values has not been established. Currently, most risk stratification tools consider LVEF values above a certain point as normal. However, since this does not account for insufficient ventricular filling or increased adrenergic tone, higher values may have clinical significance. To improve our understanding of this situation, we investigated the relationship of preoperative LVEF values with short- and long-term outcomes after CABG using a strategy that allowed for the identification of nonlinear relationships. We hypothesised that both higher and lower values are independently associated with increased postoperative complications and death in this population.

METHODS

We performed a single-centre retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing isolated CABG surgery. All patients had a preoperative measurement of their LVEF. Surgery involving mitral valve repair was excluded in order to eliminate the impact of mitral regurgitation. The primary outcome was long-term mortality; secondary outcomes included atrial fibrillation, operative mortality, and a composite outcome including any postoperative adverse event. Fractional polynomial equations were used to model the relationship between LVEF and outcomes so we could account for nonlinear relationships if present. Adjustments for confounders were made using multivariable logistic regression and Cox models.

RESULTS

A total of 7,932 subjects were included in the study. After adjusting for patient and surgical characteristics, LVEF remained associated with the primary outcome as well as the composite outcome of any postoperative adverse event. Both these relationships were best described by a J-shaped curve given that higher LVEF values were associated with increased risk, albeit not as high has lower values. Regarding long-term mortality, individuals with a preoperative LVEF of 60% demonstrated the longest survival. A statistically significant relationship was not found between LVEF and operative mortality or atrial fibrillation after adjustment for confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher preoperative LVEF values may be associated with increased risk for patients undergoing CABG surgery. Future studies are needed to better characterise this phenotype.

Bias Implications of Outcome Misclassification in Observational Studies Evaluating Association Between Treatments and All-Cause or Cardiovascular Mortality Using Administrative Claims

Background

The bias implications of outcome misclassification arising from imperfect capture of mortality in claims‐based studies are not well understood.

Methods and Results

We identified 2 cohorts of patients: (1) type 2 diabetes mellitus (n=8.6 million), and (2) heart failure (n=3.1 million), from Medicare claims (2012–2016). Within the 2 cohorts, mortality was identified from claims using the following approaches: (1) all‐place all‐cause mortality, (2) in‐hospital all‐cause mortality, (3) all‐place cardiovascular mortality (based on diagnosis codes for a major cardiovascular event within 30 days of death date), or (4) in‐hospital cardiovascular mortality, and compared against National Death Index identified mortality. Empirically identified sensitivity and specificity based on observed values in the 2 cohorts were used to conduct Monte Carlo simulations for treatment effect estimation under differential and nondifferential misclassification scenarios. From National Death Index, 1 544 805 deaths (549 996 [35.6%] cardiovascular deaths) in the type 2 diabetes mellitus cohort and 1 175 202 deaths (523 430 [44.5%] cardiovascular deaths) in the heart failure cohort were included. Sensitivity was 99.997% and 99.207% for the all‐place all‐cause mortality approach, whereas it was 27.71% and 33.71% for the in‐hospital all‐cause mortality approach in the type 2 diabetes mellitus and heart failure cohorts, respectively, with perfect positive predicted values. For all‐place cardiovascular mortality, sensitivity was 52.01% in the type 2 diabetes mellitus cohort and 53.83% in the heart failure cohort with positive predicted values of 49.98% and 54.45%, respectively. Simulations suggested a possibility for substantial bias in treatment effects.

Conclusions

Approaches to identify mortality from claims had variable performance compared with the National Death Index. Investigators should anticipate the potential for bias from outcome misclassification when using administrative claims to capture mortality.

Neighborhood socioeconomic status is associated with differences in operative management and long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting

OBJECTIVE

We sought to characterize differences in operative management and surgical outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting associated with the socioeconomic context in which a patient lives.

METHODS

We used a validated index of 17 variables derived from the US Census Bureau to assign socioeconomic status at the block group level to patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting at a single institution over a 16-year period. Operative mortality, stroke, renal failure, prolonged ventilation, sternal wound infection, reoperation, composite morbidity or mortality, long-term survival, and use of arterial conduits were the outcomes assessed.

RESULTS

This study was composed of 6751 patients. Lower socioeconomic status was significantly associated with increased rates of stroke, renal failure, prolonged ventilation, and composite morbidity or mortality in a multivariable analysis. Low socioeconomic status was significantly associated with poorer long-term adjusted survival (hazard ratio, 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.55). Finally, lower socioeconomic status was significantly associated with decreased use of more than 1 arterial conduits in a multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The socioeconomic context in which a patient lives is significantly associated with short- and long-term outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting. There may also be variation in operative management, demonstrated by decreased use of arterial conduits. Lower rates of arterial revascularization among socioeconomically disadvantaged patients who undergo coronary artery revascularization may provide a target for intervention.

Prediction on critically ill patients: The role of "big data"

Accurate outcome prediction in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) would allow for better treatment planning, risk adjustment of study populations, and overall improvements in patient care. In the past, prognostic models have focused on mortality using simple ordinal severity of illness scores which could be tabulated manually by a human. With the improvements in computing power and proliferation of electronic medical records, entirely new approaches have become possible. Here we review the latest advances in outcome prediction, paying close attention to methods which are widely applicable and provide a high-level overview of the challenges the field currently faces.

Association of Mild Echocardiographic Pulmonary Hypertension With Mortality and Right Ventricular Function

Importance

Current guidelines recommend evaluation for echocardiographically estimated right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP) greater than 40 mm Hg; however, this threshold does not capture all patients at risk.

Objectives

To determine if mild echocardiographic pulmonary hypertension (ePH) is associated with reduced right ventricular (RV) function and increased risk of mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this cohort study, electronic health record data of patients who were referred for echocardiography at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, from March 1997 to February 2014 and had recorded estimates of RVSP values were studied. Data were analyzed from February 2017 to May 2019.

Exposures

Mild ePH was defined as an RVSP value of 33 to 39 mm Hg. Right ventricular function was assessed using tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), and RV-pulmonary arterial coupling was measured using the ratio of TAPSE to RVSP.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Associations of mild ePH with mortality adjusted for relevant covariates were examined using Cox proportional hazard models with restricted cubic splines.

Results

Of the 47 784 included patients, 26 758 of 47 771 (56.0%) were female and 6040 of 44 763 (13.5%) were black, and the mean (SD) age was 59 (18) years. Patients with mild ePH had worse RV function compared with those with no ePH (mean [SD] TAPSE, 2.0 [0.6] cm vs 2.2 [0.5] cm; P < .001) and nearly double the prevalence of RV dysfunction (32.6% [92 of 282] vs 16.7% [170 of 1015]; P < .001). Compared with patients with RVSP less than 33 mm Hg, those with mild ePH also had reduced RV-pulmonary arterial coupling (mean [SD] ratio of TAPSE to RVSP, 0.55 [0.18] mm/mm Hg vs 0.93 [0.39] mm/mm Hg; P < .001). An increase in adjusted mortality began at an RVSP value of 27 mm Hg (hazard ratio, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.02-1.70). Female sex was associated with increased mortality risk at any given RVSP value.

Conclusions and Relevance

Mild ePH was associated with RV dysfunction and worse RV-pulmonary arterial coupling in a clinical population seeking care. Future studies are needed to identify patients with mild ePH who are susceptible to adverse outcomes.

Association Between Preoperative Metformin Exposure and Postoperative Outcomes in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes

Importance

Adults with comorbidity have less physiological reserve and an increased rate of postoperative mortality and readmission after the stress of a major surgical intervention.

Objective

To assess postoperative mortality and readmission among individuals with diabetes with or without preoperative prescriptions for metformin.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study obtained data from the electronic health record of a multicenter, single health care system in Pennsylvania. Included were adults with diabetes who underwent a major operation with hospital admission from January 1, 2010, to January 1, 2016, at 15 community and academic hospitals within the system. Individuals without a clinical indication for metformin therapy were excluded. Follow-up continued until December 18, 2018.

Exposures

Preoperative metformin exposure was defined as 1 or more prescriptions for metformin in the 180 days before the surgical procedure.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause postoperative mortality, hospital readmission within 90 days of discharge, and preoperative inflammation measured by the neutrophil to leukocyte ratio were compared between those with and without preoperative prescriptions for metformin. The corresponding absolute risk reduction (ARR) and adjusted hazard ratio (HR) with 95% CI were calculated in a propensity score-matched cohort.

Results

Among the 10 088 individuals with diabetes who underwent a major surgical intervention, 5962 (59%) had preoperative metformin prescriptions. A total of 5460 patients were propensity score-matched, among whom the mean (SD) age was 67.7 (12.2) years, and 2866 (53%) were women. In the propensity score-matched cohort, preoperative metformin prescriptions were associated with a reduced hazard for 90-day mortality (adjusted HR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.55-0.95]; ARR, 1.28% [95% CI, 0.26-2.31]) and hazard of readmission, with mortality as a competing risk at both 30 days (ARR, 2.09% [95% CI, 0.35-3.82]; sub-HR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.72-0.98]) and 90 days (ARR, 2.78% [95% CI, 0.62-4.95]; sub-HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.77-0.97]). Preoperative inflammation was reduced in those with metformin prescriptions compared with those without (mean neutrophil to leukocyte ratio, 4.5 [95% CI, 4.3-4.6] vs 5.0 [95% CI, 4.8-5.3]; P < .001). E-value analysis suggested robustness to unmeasured confounding.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found an association between metformin prescriptions provided to individuals with type 2 diabetes before a major surgical procedure and reduced risk-adjusted mortality and readmission after the operation. This association warrants further investigation.

Mortality After Paclitaxel Coated Balloon Angioplasty and Stenting of Superficial Femoral and Popliteal Artery in the Vascular Quality Initiative

BACKGROUND

To compare mortality after treatment of superficial femoral-popliteal artery disease with paclitaxel and nonpaclitaxel devices using a multicenter vascular registry.

METHODS

Patients (N=8376) undergoing endovascular treatment of superficial femoral-popliteal artery disease in the Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative were studied from October 2016 to December 2017. One-year mortality was compared between 3 groups; plain balloon angioplasty (N=2104) versus paclitaxel-coated balloon angioplasty (N=3543), bare-metal stenting (N= 2045) versus paclitaxel-eluting stents (N=684), and combined paclitaxel versus nonpaclitaxel devices. Mortality rates with hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI were compared in unadjusted and propensity-matched cohorts and illustrated by Kaplan-Meier analysis with subgroup analysis for intermittent claudication, chronic limb-threatening ischemia, and secondary interventions.

RESULTS

In propensity-matched analyses, mortality was similar after plain balloon angioplasty (12.6%) and paclitaxel-coated balloon angioplasty (9.6%; HR=0.84 [95% CI, 0.66-1.06], P=0.14). In propensity-matched groups, mortality was similar after bare-metal stenting (9.8%) and paclitaxel-eluting stenting (8.8%; HR=0.93 [95% CI, 0.62-1.41], P=0.75). In the combined, matched analysis mortality was significantly lower in the paclitaxel device group (8.5%) compared with the nonpaclitaxel device group (11.5%; HR=0.82 [95% CI, 0.68-0.98], P=0.03). Secondary interventions were similar after nonpaclitaxel (N=1113/4149, 26.8%) and paclitaxel device use (N=1113/4227, 26.3%). For intermittent claudication, mortality was lower after paclitaxel device use (1.6%) compared with nonpaclitaxel devices (4.4%; adjusted HR=0.59 [95% CI, 0.39-0.89], P=0.01). For chronic limb-threatening ischemia, the mortality difference was not significant; paclitaxel (12.8%) versus nonpaclitaxel devices (15.5%; adjusted HR=0.85 [95% CI, 0.72-1.00], P=0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

At 1 year, mortality was similar if not lower after treatment of femoral-popliteal occlusive disease with paclitaxel versus nonpaclitaxel devices. This work highlights the potential use of the Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative for surveillance of the safety of new peripheral arterial devices.

Electronic Health Record Phenotypes for Identifying Patients with Late-Stage Disease: a Method for Research and Clinical Application

BACKGROUND

Systematic identification of patients allows researchers and clinicians to test new models of care delivery. EHR phenotypes-structured algorithms based on clinical indicators from EHRs-can aid in such identification.

OBJECTIVE

To develop EHR phenotypes to identify decedents with stage 4 solid-tumor cancer or stage 4-5 chronic kidney disease (CKD).

DESIGN

We developed two EHR phenotypes. Each phenotype included International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 and ICD-10 codes. We used natural language processing (NLP) to further specify stage 4 cancer, and lab values for CKD.

SUBJECTS

Decedents with cancer or CKD who had been admitted to an academic medical center in the last 6 months of life and died August 26, 2017-December 31, 2017.

MAIN MEASURE

We calculated positive predictive values (PPV), false discovery rates (FDR), false negative rates (FNR), and sensitivity. Phenotypes were validated by a comparison with manual chart review. We also compared the EHR phenotype results to those admitted to the oncology and nephrology inpatient services.

KEY RESULTS

The EHR phenotypes identified 271 decedents with cancer, of whom 186 had stage 4 disease; of 192 decedents with CKD, 89 had stage 4-5 disease. The EHR phenotype for stage 4 cancer had a PPV of 68.6%, FDR of 31.4%, FNR of 0.5%, and 99.5% sensitivity. The EHR phenotype for stage 4-5 CKD had a PPV of 46.4%, FDR of 53.7%, FNR of 0.0%, and 100% sensitivity.

CONCLUSIONS

EHR phenotypes efficiently identified patients who died with late-stage cancer or CKD. Future EHR phenotypes can prioritize specificity over sensitivity, and incorporate stratification of high- and low-palliative care need. EHR phenotypes are a promising method for identifying patients for research and clinical purposes, including equitable distribution of specialty palliative care.

Machine Learning Approaches to Predict 6-Month Mortality Among Patients With Cancer

Importance

Machine learning algorithms could identify patients with cancer who are at risk of short-term mortality. However, it is unclear how different machine learning algorithms compare and whether they could prompt clinicians to have timely conversations about treatment and end-of-life preferences.

Objectives

To develop, validate, and compare machine learning algorithms that use structured electronic health record data before a clinic visit to predict mortality among patients with cancer.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Cohort study of 26 525 adult patients who had outpatient oncology or hematology/oncology encounters at a large academic cancer center and 10 affiliated community practices between February 1, 2016, and July 1, 2016. Patients were not required to receive cancer-directed treatment. Patients were observed for up to 500 days after the encounter. Data analysis took place between October 1, 2018, and September 1, 2019.

Exposures

Logistic regression, gradient boosting, and random forest algorithms.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Primary outcome was 180-day mortality from the index encounter; secondary outcome was 500-day mortality from the index encounter.

Results

Among 26 525 patients in the analysis, 1065 (4.0%) died within 180 days of the index encounter. Among those who died, the mean age was 67.3 (95% CI, 66.5-68.0) years, and 500 (47.0%) were women. Among those who were alive at 180 days, the mean age was 61.3 (95% CI, 61.1-61.5) years, and 15 922 (62.5%) were women. The population was randomly partitioned into training (18 567 [70.0%]) and validation (7958 [30.0%]) cohorts at the patient level, and a randomly selected encounter was included in either the training or validation set. At a prespecified alert rate of 0.02, positive predictive values were higher for the random forest (51.3%) and gradient boosting (49.4%) algorithms compared with the logistic regression algorithm (44.7%). There was no significant difference in discrimination among the random forest (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.89), gradient boosting (AUC, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.85-0.89), and logistic regression (AUC, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.84-0.88) models (P for comparison = .02). In the random forest model, observed 180-day mortality was 51.3% (95% CI, 43.6%-58.8%) in the high-risk group vs 3.4% (95% CI, 3.0%-3.8%) in the low-risk group; at 500 days, observed mortality was 64.4% (95% CI, 56.7%-71.4%) in the high-risk group and 7.6% (7.0%-8.2%) in the low-risk group. In a survey of 15 oncology clinicians with a 52.1% response rate, 100 of 171 patients (58.8%) who had been flagged as having high risk by the gradient boosting algorithm were deemed appropriate for a conversation about treatment and end-of-life preferences in the upcoming week.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, machine learning algorithms based on structured electronic health record data accurately identified patients with cancer at risk of short-term mortality. When the gradient boosting algorithm was applied in real time, clinicians believed that most patients who had been identified as having high risk were appropriate for a timely conversation about treatment and end-of-life preferences.