The prostate cancer conundrum revisited: treatment changes and prostate cancer mortality declines

A Scaled Proteomic Discovery Study for Prostate Cancer Diagnostic Markers Using ProteographTM and Trapped Ion Mobility Mass Spectrometry

There is a significant unmet need for clinical reflex tests that increase the specificity of prostate-specific antigen blood testing, the longstanding but imperfect tool for prostate cancer diagnosis. Towards this endpoint, we present the results from a discovery study that identifies new prostate-specific antigen reflex markers in a large-scale patient serum cohort using differentiating technologies for deep proteomic interrogation. We detect known prostate cancer blood markers as well as novel candidates. Through bioinformatic pathway enrichment and network analysis, we reveal associations of differentially abundant proteins with cytoskeletal, metabolic, and ribosomal activities, all of which have been previously associated with prostate cancer progression. Additionally, optimized machine learning classifier analysis reveals proteomic signatures capable of detecting the disease prior to biopsy, performing on par with an accepted clinical risk calculator benchmark.

Lifetime Health and Economic Outcomes of Biparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging as First-Line Screening for Prostate Cancer : A Decision Model Analysis

BACKGROUND

Contemporary prostate cancer (PCa) screening uses first-line prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, possibly followed by multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) for men with elevated PSA levels. First-line biparametric MRI (bpMRI) screening has been proposed as an alternative.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of first-line bpMRI versus PSA-based screening.

DESIGN

Decision analysis using a microsimulation model.

DATA SOURCES

Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database; randomized trials.

TARGET POPULATION

U.S. men aged 55 years with no prior screening or PCa diagnosis.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

U.S. health care system.

INTERVENTION

Biennial screening to age 69 years using first-line PSA testing (test-positive threshold, 4 µg/L) with or without second-line mpMRI or first-line bpMRI (test-positive threshold, PI-RADS [Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System] 3 to 5 or 4 to 5), followed by biopsy guided by MRI or MRI plus transrectal ultrasonography.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Screening tests, biopsies, diagnoses, overdiagnoses, treatments, PCa deaths, quality-adjusted and unadjusted life-years saved, and costs.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

For 1000 men, first-line bpMRI versus first-line PSA testing prevented 2 to 3 PCa deaths and added 10 to 30 life-years (4 to 11 days per person) but increased the number of biopsies by 1506 to 4174 and the number of overdiagnoses by 38 to 124 depending on the biopsy imaging scheme. At conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds, first-line PSA testing with mpMRI followed by either biopsy approach for PI-RADS 4 to 5 produced the greatest net monetary benefits.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

First-line PSA testing remained more cost-effective even if bpMRI was free, all men with low-risk PCa underwent surveillance, or screening was quadrennial.

LIMITATION

Performance of first-line bpMRI was based on second-line mpMRI data.

CONCLUSION

Decision analysis suggests that comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of PCa screening are driven by false-positive results and overdiagnoses, favoring first-line PSA testing with mpMRI over first-line bpMRI.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Cancer Institute.

Time-varying associations of patient and tumor characteristics with cancer survival: an analysis of SEER data across 14 cancer sites, 2004-2017

PURPOSE

Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registries provides information about survival duration and cause of death for cancer patients. Baseline demographic and tumor characteristics such as age, sex, race, year of diagnosis, and tumor stage can inform the expected survival time of patients, but their associations with survival may not be constant over the post-diagnosis period.

METHODS

Using SEER data, we examined if there were time-varying associations of patient and tumor characteristics on survival, and we assessed how these relationships differed across 14 cancer sites. Standard Cox proportional hazards models were extended to allow for time-varying associations and incorporated into a competing-risks framework, separately modeling cancer-specific and other-cause deaths. For each cancer site and for each of the five factors, we estimated the relative hazard ratio and absolute hazard over time in the presence of competing risks.

RESULTS

Our comprehensive consideration of patient and tumor characteristics when estimating time-varying hazards showed that the associations of age, tumor stage at diagnosis, and race/ethnicity with risk of death (cancer-specific and other-cause) change over time for many cancers; characteristics of sex and year of diagnosis exhibit some time-varying patterns as well. Stage at diagnosis had the largest associations with survival.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that proportional hazards assumptions are often violated when examining patient characteristics on cancer survival post-diagnosis. We discuss several interesting results where the relative hazards are time-varying and suggest possible interpretations. Based on the time-varying associations of several important covariates on survival after cancer diagnosis using a pan-cancer approach, the likelihood of the proportional hazards assumption being met or corresponding interpretation should be considered in survival analyses, as flawed inference may have implications for cancer care and policy.

Data gaps and opportunities for modeling cancer health equity

Population models of cancer reflect the overall US population by drawing on numerous existing data resources for parameter inputs and calibration targets. Models require data inputs that are appropriately representative, collected in a harmonized manner, have minimal missing or inaccurate values, and reflect adequate sample sizes. Data resource priorities for population modeling to support cancer health equity include increasing the availability of data that 1) arise from uninsured and underinsured individuals and those traditionally not included in health-care delivery studies, 2) reflect relevant exposures for groups historically and intentionally excluded across the full cancer control continuum, 3) disaggregate categories (race, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, gender, sexual orientation, etc.) and their intersections that conceal important variation in health outcomes, 4) identify specific populations of interest in clinical databases whose health outcomes have been understudied, 5) enhance health records through expanded data elements and linkage with other data types (eg, patient surveys, provider and/or facility level information, neighborhood data), 6) decrease missing and misclassified data from historically underrecognized populations, and 7) capture potential measures or effects of systemic racism and corresponding intervenable targets for change.

Racial disparities in prostate cancer mortality: a model-based decomposition of contributing factors

To investigate the relative contributions of natural history and clinical interventions to racial disparities in prostate cancer mortality in the United States, we extended a model that was previously calibrated to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence rates for the general population and for Black men. The extended model integrated SEER data on curative treatment frequencies and cancer-specific survival. Starting with the model for all men, we replaced up to 9 components with corresponding components for Black men, projecting age-standardized mortality rates for ages 40-84 years at each step. Based on projections in 2019, the increased frequency of developing disease, more aggressive tumor features, and worse cancer-specific survival in Black men diagnosed at local-regional and distant stages explained 38%, 34%, 22%, and 8% of the modeled disparity in mortality. Our results point to intensified screening and improved care in Black men as priority areas to achieve greater equity.

Seaweed consumption and the risk of prostate cancer: the Miyagi cohort study

Some laboratory studies have shown that fucoidan, which is contained in seaweed extract, has inhibitory effects on the invasion and angiogenesis of tumor cells; however, the association between seaweed consumption and prostate cancer incidence remains unclear. The purpose of the present study was to examine the association between seaweed consumption and the risk of prostate cancer incidence in the Japanese population. Data from 19 311 men in the Miyagi Cohort Study who were 40-64 years old at baseline in 1990 were examined. Seaweed consumption was assessed at baseline using a self-administered food frequency questionnaire. The participants were divided into three categories based on seaweed consumption at baseline. During 24.5 years of follow-up, we identified 815 incident cases of prostate cancer. Multivariate analysis showed that seaweed consumption was not associated with prostate cancer incidence. The multivariate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for prostate cancer incidence in the highest tertile versus the other tertiles were 0.76 (0.60-0.96) and 0.78 (0.61-0.99) ( P -trend = 0.15). Furthermore, the null association was independent of whether their clinical stage was localized or advanced. In this population-based prospective cohort study conducted in Japan, we found no significant association between seaweed consumption and the incidence of prostate cancer.

Identification of novel serological autoantibodies in Chinese prostate cancer patients using high-throughput protein arrays

Autoantibody (AAb) has a prominent role in prostate cancer (PCa), with few studies profiling the AAb landscape in Chinese patients. Therefore, the AAb landscape in Chinese patients was characterized using protein arrays. First, in the discovery phase, Huprot arrays outlined autoimmune profiles against ~ 21,888 proteins from 57 samples. In the verification phase, the PCa-focused arrays detected 25 AAbs selected from the discovery phase within 178 samples. Then, PCa was detected using a backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN) model. In the validation phase, an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to validate four AAb biomarkers from 196 samples. Huprot arrays profiled distinct PCa, benign prostate diseases (BPD), and health AAb landscapes. PCa-focused array depicted that IFIT5 and CPOX AAbs could distinguish PCa from health with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.71 and 0.70, respectively. PAH and FCER2 AAbs had AUCs of 0.86 and 0.88 in discriminating PCa from BPD. Particularly, PAH AAb detected patients in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) gray zone with an AUC of 0.86. Meanwhile, the BPANN model of 4-AAb (IFIT5, PAH, FCER2, CPOX) panel attained AUC of 0.83 among the two cohorts for detecting patients with gray-zone PSA. In the validation cohort, the IFIT5 AAb was upregulated in PCa compared to health (p < 0.001). Compared with BPD, PAH and FCER2 AAbs were significantly elevated in PCa (p = 0.012 and 0.039). We have demonstrated the first extensive profiling of autoantibodies in Chinese PCa patients, identifying novel diagnostic AAb biomarkers, especially for identification of gray-zone-PSA patients.

Harm-to-Benefit of Three Decades of Prostate Cancer Screening in Black Men

BACKGROUND

Prostate-specific antigen screening has profoundly affected the epidemiology of prostate cancer in the United States. Persistent racial disparities in outcomes for Black men warrant re-examination of the harms of screening relative to its cancer-specific mortality benefits in this population.

METHODS

We estimated overdiagnoses and overtreatment of prostate cancer for men of all races and for Black men 50 to 84 years of age until 2016, the most recent year with treatment data available, using excess incidence relative to 1986 based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry and U.S. Census data as well as an established microsimulation model of prostate cancer natural history. Combining estimates with plausible mortality benefit, we calculated numbers needed to diagnose (NND) and treat (NNT) to prevent one prostate cancer death.

RESULTS

For men of all races, we estimated 1.5 to 1.9 million (range between estimation approaches) overdiagnosed and 0.9 to 1.5 million overtreated prostate cancers by 2016. Assuming that half of the 270,000 prostate cancer deaths avoided by 2016 were attributable to screening, the NND and the NNT would be 11 to 14 and 7 to 11 for men of all races and 8 to 12 and 5 to 9 for Black men, respectively. Alternative estimates incorporating a lag between incidence and mortality resulted in a NND and a NNT for Black men that reached well into the low single digits.

CONCLUSIONS

Complementary approaches to quantifying overdiagnosis indicate a harm-benefit tradeoff of prostate-specific antigen screening that is more favorable for Black men than for men of all races considered together. Our findings highlight the need to account for the increased value of screening in Black men in clinical guidelines. (Funded by the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute, the National Cancer Institute, the Bristol Myers Squibb Foundation, and the Damon Runyon Cancer Research Foundation.).

How Did CNBSS Influence Guidelines for So Long and What Can That Teach Us?

The biased randomization and other quality concerns about the Canadian National Breast Screening Studies (CNBSS) were documented and criticized for decades, even by several individuals very close to the research. CNBSS were the outlier studies among several RCTs of the era and yet were given equal weighting and occasionally higher importance than the remainder of the canon of mammography RCTs. These studies have had an ongoing influence on subsequent evidence review, guideline formation, and, ultimately, patient access to screening. This article explores possible reasons for the ongoing inclusion of CNBSS in the body of mammography screening evidence, discusses the lack of expertise in critical healthcare guideline processes, and, ultimately, suggests several actions and reforms.

Overall survival and prognostic factors prostate cancer in Kurdistan Province-Iran: a population-based study (2011-2018)

Background

The population-based survival rate is affected by the quality and effectiveness of health care systems. Overall, the survival of prostate cancer (PC) patients has improved over the past two decades worldwide. This study aimed to determine the overall survival rate and correlate it with the prognostic factors in patients with PC diagnosed in Kurdistan province.

Methods

In a retrospective cohort study, 410 PC patients registered in Kurdistan province population-based cancer registry from March 2011 to 2018 were recruited. Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank test were used to analyze the overall survival rates of PC patients. A Multivariate Cox regression model was used to determine adjusted hazard ratios for different variables.

Results

Of 410 patients with PC, 263 (64.1%) died within seven years due to the disease. The 1, 3, and 5 years survival rates were 93, 64.1, and 40.7%, respectively. According to the results of multiple Cox regression, the following factors were significantly related to PC survival: age at diagnosis (≥81-years old) (HR=2.23, 95% CI: 1.23-4.42) and 71-80 years old was (HR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.12-2.31), occupation (employee) (HR=0.42, 95% CI: 0.20–0.87), educational level: academic (HR=0.78, 95% CI: 0.64–0.91), AJCC stage of disease (HR=2.18, 95% CI: 1.9–3.68), Gleason score ≥ 9 (HR=7.12, 95% CI: 5.35–10.28), and Gleason score= 8 (HR=4.16, 95% CI: 2.50–6.93). There was less mortality rate among the patients who had received active care, radical prostatectomy, radiotherapy, combined treatment, and orchiectomy had a lower mortality rate than those who received no treatment (P<0.05).

Conclusions

This study demonstrated that factors such as age at diagnosis, level of education, occupation, AJCC stage of disease, Gleason score, and type of treatments were influential factors in the survival of PC patients in Kurdistan province and needed more attention.

Genetic Contributions to Prostate Cancer Disparities in Men of West African Descent

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the second most frequently diagnosed malignancy and the second leading cause of death in men worldwide, after adjusting for age. According to the International Agency for Research on Cancer, continents such as North America and Europe report higher incidence of PCa; however, mortality rates are highest among men of African ancestry in the western, southern, and central regions of Africa and the Caribbean. The American Cancer Society reports, African Americans (AAs), in the United States, have a 1.7 increased incidence and 2.4 times higher mortality rate, compared to European American's (EAs). Hence, early population history in west Africa and the subsequent African Diaspora may play an important role in understanding the global disproportionate burden of PCa shared among Africans and other men of African descent. Nonetheless, disparities involved in diagnosis, treatment, and survival of PCa patients has also been correlated to socioeconomic status, education and access to healthcare. Although recent studies suggest equal PCa treatments yield equal outcomes among patients, data illuminates an unsettling reality of disparities in treatment and care in both, developed and developing countries, especially for men of African descent. Yet, even after adjusting for the effects of the aforementioned factors; racial disparities in mortality rates remain significant. This suggests that molecular and genomic factors may account for much of PCa disparities.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Prostate Cancer Screening in Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Prostate cancer is one of the most common malignancies among men worldwide. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening shows uncertain benefits and harms from clinical and economic perspectives, resulting in an important impact on healthcare systems. Because of nonstandardized studies and substantial differences among populations, data are still inconclusive.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to carry out long-term cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis on the PSA-screened population from the service provider's perspective in the Brazilian population.

METHODS

We performed a cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis using clinical outcomes obtained from 9692 men enrolled in the PSA screening program. Prostate cancer treatments, 5-year follow-up outcomes, and all related costs were examined. Data were compared with a nonscreened prostate cancer population to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR). ICER and ICUR were compared with the Brazilian-established willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold (WTP = R$ 114 026.55).

RESULTS

A total of 251 of 9692 men had a diagnosis of prostate cancer (2.6%), of which 90% had localized disease. Two hundred and five patients were treated as follows: surgery (45.37%); radiation therapy (11.22%); radiation plus androgen deprivation therapy (21.95%); active surveillance (13.17%); exclusive androgen deprivation therapy (7.32%); and watchful waiting (0.98%). Two simulated cohorts were compared based on screening and nonscreening groups. Values obtained were-ICER of R$ 44 491.39 per life saved and ICUR of R$ 10 851.56 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained-below the Brazilian WTP threshold and showed cost-effectiveness and cost-utility advantages.

CONCLUSION

According to the Brazilian WTP, PSA screening is a cost-effective policy from a hospital and long-term perspective and should have more standardized studies developed in different populations and economies.

The presence of prostate-specific antigen checked more than 1 year before diagnostic biopsy is an independent prognostic factor in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy

PURPOSE

In large scale prospective studies, prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-screening not only decreased prostate cancer mortality, but also reduced biochemical recurrence (BCR) in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP). We investigated the independent effect of the presence of PSA checked more than 1 year before diagnostic biopsy on the prognosis of patients undergoing RP in a real world setting without PSA-screening.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We reviewed the database of patients undergoing RP at Ajou University Hospital from March 1999 to May 2018. Clinicopathological features assessed were age, presence of lower urinary tract symptoms at presentation, presence of PSA checked over 1 year before biopsy, presence of PSA checked within 4 to 1 years of biopsy, last pre-biopsy PSA (pPSA), biopsy grade group (bGG), cT, cN, percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPBC), pathological GG (pGG), pT, pN, surgical margin, and index tumor diameter. The primary endpoint was BCR-free survival (BCRFS).

RESULTS

Of 598 patients enrolled, 211 experienced BCR at the mean follow-up of 64±37 months. The 5-year and 10-year BCRFS were 62.8% and 53.9%, respectively. In multivariate analyses including clinical variables only, pPSA, bGG, cT, PPBC, and PSA within 4 to 1 years of biopsy independently affected BCRFS. In multivariate analyses including pathological variables only, pPSA, pGG, pT, pN, PSA checked over 1 year before biopsy and PSA checked within 4 to 1 years of biopsy independently affected BCRFS.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who has checked PSA at least once beyond 1 year before diagnosis of prostate cancer show better BCRFS regardless of other factors.

Cost-effectiveness of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging and MRI-guided biopsy in a population-based prostate cancer screening setting using a micro-simulation model

BACKGROUND

The introduction of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and MRI-guided biopsy has improved the diagnosis of prostate cancer. However, it remains uncertain whether it is cost-effective, especially in a population-based screening strategy.

METHODS

We used a micro-simulation model to assess the cost-effectiveness of an MRI-based prostate cancer screening in comparison to the classical prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening, at a population level. The test sensitivity parameters for the mpMRI and MRI-guided biopsy, grade misclassification rates, utility estimates, and the unit costs of different interventions were obtained from literature. We assumed the same screening attendance rate and biopsy compliance rate for both strategies. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis, consisting of 1000 model runs, was performed to estimate a mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and assess uncertainty. A €20,000 willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, and a discounting rate of 3.5% was considered in the analysis.

RESULTS

The MRI-based screening improved the life-years (LY) and QALYs gained by 3.5 and 3, respectively, in comparison to the classical screening pathway. Based on the probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the MRI screening pathway leads to total discounted mean incremental costs of €15,413 (95% confidence interval (CI) of €14,556-€16,272) compared to the classical screening pathway. The corresponding discounted mean incremental QALYs gained was 1.36 (95% CI of 1.31-1.40), resulting in a mean ICER of €11,355 per QALY gained. At a WTP threshold of €20,000, the MRI screening pathway has about 84% chance to be more cost-effective than the classical screening pathway.

CONCLUSIONS

For triennial screening from age 55-64, incorporation of mpMRI as a reflex test after a positive PSA test result with a subsequent MRI-guided biopsy has a high probability to be more cost-effective as compared with the classical prostate cancer screening pathway.

Prostate Cancer Screening in Brazil: a single center experience in the public health system

PURPOSE

Incidence and mortality of prostate cancer (PCa) are still increasing in developing countries. Limited access to the health system or more aggressive disease are potential reasons for this. Ethnic and social differences in developed countries seem to make inappropriate to extrapolate data from other centers. We aim to report the epidemiological profile of a PSA-screened population from a cancer center in Brazil.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively selected 9.692 men enrolled in a PCa prevention program, comprising total PSA level and digital rectal examination at the first appointment, associated with complementary tests when necessary. Men aged over 40 years-old were included after shared decision-making process. Prostate biopsy (TRUS) was performed when clinically suspected for PCa. After the diagnosis, patients underwent appropriate treatment.

RESULTS

TRUS was performed in 5.5% of men and PCa incidence was 2.6%. Overall ratio between number of patients who needed to be screened in order to diagnose one cancer was 38.9 patients, with 2.1 biopsies performed to diagnose a cancer. Positive predictive value (PPV) of TRUS biopsy in this strategy was 47.2%, varying from 38.5% (<50 years-old) to 60% (>80 years-old). We evidenced 70 patients (27.9%) classified as low risk tumors, 74 (29.5%) as intermediate risk, and 107 (42.6%) as high-risk disease.

CONCLUSIONS

PSA-screening remains controversial in literature. In front of a huge miscegenated people and considering the big proportion of high-risk PCa, even in young men diagnosed with the disease, it is imperative to inform patients and health providers about these data particularities in Brazil.

Lifetime Benefits and Harms of Prostate-Specific Antigen-Based Risk-Stratified Screening for Prostate Cancer

Background

Studies conducted in Swedish populations have shown that men with lowest prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels at ages 44–50 years and 60 years have very low risk of future distant metastasis or death from prostate cancer. This study investigates benefits and harms of screening strategies stratified by PSA levels.

Methods

PSA levels and diagnosis patterns from two microsimulation models of prostate cancer progression, detection, and mortality were compared against results of the Malmö Preventive Project, which stored serum and tracked subsequent prostate cancer diagnoses for 25 years. The models predicted the harms (tests and overdiagnoses) and benefits (lives saved and life-years gained) of PSA-stratified screening strategies compared with biennial screening from age 45 years to age 69 years.

Results

Compared with biennial screening for ages 45–69 years, lengthening screening intervals for men with PSA less than 1.0 ng/mL at age 45 years led to 46.8–47.0% fewer tests (range between models), 0.9–2.1% fewer overdiagnoses, and 3.1–3.8% fewer lives saved. Stopping screening when PSA was less than 1.0 ng/mL at age 60 years and older led to 12.8–16.0% fewer tests, 5.0–24.0% fewer overdiagnoses, and 5.0–13.1% fewer lives saved. Differences in model results can be partially explained by differences in assumptions about the link between PSA growth and the risk of disease progression.

Conclusion

Relative to a biennial screening strategy, PSA-stratified screening strategies investigated in this study substantially reduced the testing burden and modestly reduced overdiagnosis while preserving most lives saved. Further research is needed to clarify the link between PSA growth and disease progression.

Health Policy and Advocacy

Awareness of the activities of federal and state legislative and regulatory activities is vital for physicians to avoid having their services misvalued and to protect patients' access to care. Professional organizations are encouraging physicians to develop political leadership and advocacy skills to protect patient care, research, and access to technology. The political polarization of the country and the public health emergency have had an impact on the ability and willingness of some to engage in policy discussions. This article reviews mechanisms by which urologists can engage in health policy and political activity and avenues to expand the number of urologists involved.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2021 with focus on pancreatic and female lung cancer

BACKGROUND

We predicted cancer mortality statistics for 2021 for the European Union (EU) and its five most populous countries plus the UK. We also focused on pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We obtained cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardised (world population) rates for 2021 for total cancers and 10 major cancer sites, using a joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2021.

RESULTS

We predicted 1 267 000 cancer deaths for 2021 in the EU, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 130.4/100 000 men (-6.6% since 2015) and 81.0/100 000 for women (-4.5%). We estimated further falls in male lung cancer rates, but still trending upward in women by +6.5%, reaching 14.5/100 000 in 2021. The breast cancer predicted rate in the EU was 13.3/100 000 (-7.8%). The rates for stomach and leukaemias in both sexes and for bladder in males are predicted to fall by >10%; trends for other cancer sites were also favourable, except for the pancreas, which showed stable patterns in both sexes, with predicted rates of 8.1/100 000 in men and 5.6/100 000 in women. Rates for pancreatic cancer in EU men aged 25-49 and 50-64 years declined, respectively, by 10% and 1.8%, while for those aged 65+ years increased by 1.3%. Rates fell for young women only (-3.4%). Over 1989-2021, about 5 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU27 compared with peak rates in 1988.

CONCLUSION

Overall cancer mortality continues to fall in both sexes. However, specific focus is needed on pancreatic cancer, which shows a sizeable decline for young men only. Tobacco control remains a priority for the prevention of pancreatic and other tobacco-related cancers, which account for one-third of the total EU cancer deaths, especially in women, who showed less favourable trends.

The comparative effectiveness of mpMRI and MRI-guided biopsy vs regular biopsy in a population-based PSA testing: a modeling study

The benefit of prostate cancer screening is counterbalanced by the risk of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. The use of a multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) test after a positive prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test followed by magnetic resonance imaging-guided biopsy (MRIGB) may reduce these harms. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of mpMRI and MRIGB vs the regular screening pathway in a population-based prostate cancer screening setting. A micro-simulation model was used to predict the effects of regular PSA screening (men with elevated PSA followed by TRUSGB) and MRI based screening (men with elevated PSA followed by mpMRI and MRIGB). We predicted reduction of overdiagnosis, harm-benefit ratio (overdiagnosis per cancer death averted), reduction in number of biopsies, detection of clinically significant cancer, prostate cancer death averted, life-years gained (LYG), and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained for both strategies. A univariate sensitivity analysis and threshold analysis were performed to assess uncertainty around the test sensitivity parameters used in the MRI strategy.In the MRI pathway, we predicted a 43% reduction in the risk of overdiagnosis, compared to the regular pathway. Similarly a lower harm-benefit ratio (overdiagnosis per cancer death averted) was predicted for this strategy compared to the regular screening pathway (1.0 vs 1.8 respectively). Prostate cancer mortality reduction, LY and QALYs gained were also slightly increased in the MRI pathway than the regular screening pathway. Furthermore, 30% of men with a positive PSA test could avoid a biopsy as compared to the regular screening pathway. Compared to regular PSA screening, the use of mpMRI as a triage test followed by MRIGB can substantially reduce the risk of overdiagnosis and improve the harm-benefit balance, while maximizing prostate cancer mortality reduction and QALYs gained.

National burden of cancer in Italy, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017

We monitored the burden of cancer in Italy and its trends over the last three decades, providing estimates of cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), for cancer overall and 30 cancer sites using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. An overview of mortality trends between 1990 and 2017 was also provided. In 2017, there were 254,336 new cancer cases in men and 214,994 in women, corresponding to an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 438 and 330/100,000, respectively. Between 1990 and 2017, incident cancer cases, and, to a lesser extent, ASIRs significantly increased overall and for almost all cancer sites, but ASIRs significantly declined for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms. In 2017, there were 101,659 cancer deaths in men (age-standardized death rate, ASDR, 158.5/100,000) and 78,918 in women (ASDR 93.9/100,000). Cancer deaths significantly increased between 1990 and 2017 (+ 18%), but ASDR significantly decreased (- 28%). Deaths significantly increased for many cancer sites, but decreased for stomach, esophageal, laryngeal, Hodgkin lymphoma, and testicular cancer. ASDRs significantly decreased for most neoplasms, with the main exceptions of cancer of the pancreas and uterus, and multiple myeloma. In 2017, cancer caused 3,204,000 DALYs. Between 1990 and 2017, DALYs and age-standardized DALY rates significantly declined (-3.4% and -33%, respectively). Age-standardized mortality rates in Italy showed favorable patterns over the last few decades. However, the absolute number of cancer cases and, to a lower extent, of cancer deaths increased likely due to the progressive ageing of the population, this calling for a continuous effort in cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment.

Prostate Cancer Biomarker Development: National Cancer Institute's Early Detection Research Network Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group Review

Prostate cancer remains the most common non-skin cancer and second leading cause of death among men in the United States. Although progress has been made in diagnosis and risk assessment, many clinical questions remain regarding early identification of prostate cancer and management. The early detection of aggressive disease continues to provide high curative rates if diagnosed in a localized state. Unfortunately, prostate cancer displays significant heterogeneity within the prostate organ and between individual patients making detection and treatment strategies complex. Although prostate cancer is common among men, the majority will not die from prostate cancer, introducing the issue of overtreatment as a major concern in clinical management of the disease. The focus of the future is to identify those at highest risk for aggressive prostate cancer and to develop prevention and screening strategies, as well as discerning the difference in malignant potential of diagnosed tumors. The Prostate Cancer Research Group of the National Cancer Institute's Early Detection Research Network has contributed to the progress in addressing these concerns. This summary is an overview of the activities of the group.See all articles in this CEBP Focus section, "NCI Early Detection Research Network: Making Cancer Detection Possible."

Clinical proteomics for prostate cancer: understanding prostate cancer pathology and protein biomarkers for improved disease management

Following the introduction of routine Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) screening in the early 1990's, Prostate Cancer (PCa) is often detected at an early stage. There are also a growing number of treatment options available and so the associated mortality rate is generally low. However, PCa is an extremely complex and heterogenous disease and many patients suffer disease recurrence following initial therapy. Disease recurrence commonly results in metastasis and metastatic PCa has an average survival rate of just 3-5 years. A significant problem in the clinical management of PCa is being able to differentiate between patients who will respond to standard therapies and those who may benefit from more aggressive intervention at an earlier stage. It is also acknowledged that for many men the disease is not life threatenting. Hence, there is a growing desire to identify patients who can be spared the significant side effects associated with PCa treatment until such time (if ever) their disease progresses to the point where treatment is required. To these important clinical needs, current biomarkers and clinical methods for patient stratification and personlised treatment are insufficient. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the complexities of PCa pathology and disease management. In this context it is possible to review current biomarkers and proteomic technologies that will support development of biomarker-driven decision tools to meet current important clinical needs. With such an in-depth understanding of disease pathology, the development of novel clinical biomarkers can proceed in an efficient and effective manner, such that they have a better chance of improving patient outcomes.

Assessment of harms, benefits, and cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening: A micro-simulation study of 230 scenarios

Background

Prostate cancer screening incurs a high risk of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. An organized and age‐targeted screening strategy may reduce the associated harms while retaining or enhancing the benefits.

Methods

Using a micro‐simulation analysis (MISCAN) model, we assessed the harms, benefits, and cost‐effectiveness of 230 prostate‐specific antigen (PSA) screening strategies in a Dutch population. Screening strategies were varied by screening start age (50, 51, 52, 53, 54, and 55), stop age (51‐69), and intervals (1, 2, 3, 4, 8, and single test). Costs and effects of each screening strategy were compared with a no‐screening scenario.

Results

The most optimum strategy would be screening with 3‐year intervals at ages 55–64 resulting in an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €19 733 per QALY. This strategy predicted a 27% prostate cancer mortality reduction and 28 life years gained (LYG) per 1000 men; 36% of screen‐detected men were overdiagnosed. Sensitivity analyses did not substantially alter the optimal screening strategy.

Conclusions

PSA screening beyond age 64 is not cost‐effective and associated with a higher risk of overdiagnosis. Similarly, starting screening before age 55 is not a favored strategy based on our cost‐effectiveness analysis.

Current Prevalence of Major Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Test Use in the United States: Disparities by Education and Race/Ethnicity

Overall cancer death rates in the United States have declined since 1990. The decline could be accelerated by eliminating socioeconomic and racial disparities in major risk factors and screening utilization. We provide an updated review of the prevalence of modifiable cancer risk factors, screening, and vaccination for U.S. adults, focusing on differences by educational attainment and race/ethnicity. Individuals with lower educational attainment have higher prevalence of modifiable cancer risk factors and lower prevalence of screening versus their more educated counterparts. Smoking prevalence is 6-fold higher among males without a high school (HS) education than female college graduates. Nearly half of women without a college degree are obese versus about one third of college graduates. Over 50% of black and Hispanic women are obese compared with 38% of whites and 15% of Asians. Breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening utilization is 20% to 30% lower among those with <HS education compared with college graduates. Screening for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers is also lower among Hispanics, Asians, and American Indians/Alaska Natives relative to whites and blacks. Enhanced, multilevel efforts are needed to further reduce the prevalence of modifiable risk factors and improve screening and vaccination, particularly among those with lower socioeconomic status and racial/ethnic minorities.

Prognostic value of the SPOP mutant genomic subclass in prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Speckle-type POZ protein (SPOP) mutation defines one of the dominant prostate cancer genomic subtypes, yet the impact of this mutation on clinical prognosis is unknown.

METHODS

We defined SPOP mutation status either by DNA sequencing or by transcriptional signature in a pooled retrospective multi-institutional cohort, the Decipher retrospective cohort, the Decipher Genomics Resource Information Database prospective cohort, and The Cancer Genome Atlas. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox models were used to assess the independent impact of SPOP mutation on survival, biochemical recurrence and time to metastasis. The Decipher retrospective cohort was also used to assess the impact of the addition of SPOP mutation status to a model predicting adverse pathology at prostatectomy which was then validated in the Decipher prospective cohort.

RESULTS

A fixed-effect model incorporating results from multivariable Cox regression including 5,811 subjects demonstrated that SPOP mutation was associated with a lower rate of adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy (odds ratios 0.57, 95% confidence interval 0.34-0.93), independent of preoperative prostate-specific antigen, age, and pathologic Gleason score. SPOP was not associated with biochemical recurrence, metastasis-free survival, or cancer-specific survival independent of pathologic information. The addition of SPOP status to prognostic models reclassified a large proportion of patients with the mutation (55%) into a favorable risk group when used to predict adverse pathology.

CONCLUSION

While the clinical utility of delineating any single molecular alteration in prostate cancer remains unclear, these results illustrates the importance of genomic subtypes in prostate cancer behavior and potential role in prognostic tools.

Is Engrailed-2 (EN2) a truly promising biomarker in prostate cancer detection?

Purpose: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is a sensitive but unspecific marker for prostate cancer (PC) detection, which may result in harms including overdiagnosis and overtreatment. Therefore, the development of new markers is of absolute value. The urinary level of engrailed-2 (EN2) protein has been recently suggested as a promising PC biomarker, correlating with tumour volume and stage. This study evaluated EN2 and its potential use in clinical practice.Materials and methods: Urinary EN2 was assessed by different commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits. The study sample included 90 patients with clinically localized PC compared to 30 healthy controls, and a group of 40 patients indicated for prostate biopsy due to an elevated PSA level where both pre- and post-digital rectal examination urine samples were collected.Results: No statistical difference between the patient group and the control group was obtained in all measured variables. There was no significant correlation between urinary EN2 and serum PSA, tumour staging and grading. Attentive DRE did not lead to significant changes of urinary EN2 or impact on its predictive power.Conclusions: Our results show that EN2 as a PC biomarker brings no additional value to the current use of PSA in clinical practice.

The American Cancer Society 2035 challenge goal on cancer mortality reduction

A summary evaluation of the 2015 American Cancer Society (ACS) challenge goal showed that overall US mortality from all cancers combined declined 26% over the period from 1990 to 2015. Recent research suggests that US cancer mortality can still be lowered considerably by applying known interventions broadly and equitably. The ACS Board of Directors, therefore, commissioned ACS researchers to determine challenge goals for reductions in cancer mortality by 2035. A statistical model was used to estimate the average annual percent decline in overall cancer death rates among the US general population and among college-educated Americans during the most recent period. Then, the average annual percent decline in the overall cancer death rates of college graduates was applied to the death rates in the general population to project future rates in the United States beginning in 2020. If overall cancer death rates from 2020 through 2035 nationally decline at the pace of those of college graduates, then death rates in 2035 in the United States will drop by 38.3% from the 2015 level and by 54.4% from the 1990 level. On the basis of these results, the ACS 2035 challenge goal was set as a 40% reduction from the 2015 level. Achieving this goal could lead to approximately 1.3 million fewer cancer deaths than would have occurred from 2020 through 2035 and 122,500 fewer cancer deaths in 2035 alone. The results also show that reducing the prevalence of risk factors and achieving optimal adherence to evidence-based screening guidelines by 2025 could lead to a 33.5% reduction in the overall cancer death rate by 2035, attaining 85% of the challenge goal.

Evaluating Parameter Uncertainty in a Simulation Model of Cancer Using Emulators

Background. Microsimulation models have been extensively used in the field of cancer modeling. However, there is substantial uncertainty regarding estimates from these models, for example, overdiagnosis in prostate cancer. This is usually not thoroughly examined due to the high computational effort required. Objective. To quantify uncertainty in model outcomes due to uncertainty in model parameters, using a computationally efficient emulator (Gaussian process regression) instead of the model. Methods. We use a microsimulation model of prostate cancer (microsimulation screening analysis [MISCAN]) to simulate individual life histories. We analyze the effect of parametric uncertainty on overdiagnosis with probabilistic sensitivity analyses (ProbSAs). To minimize the number of MISCAN runs needed for ProbSAs, we emulate MISCAN, using data pairs of parameter values and outcomes to fit a Gaussian process regression model. We evaluate to what extent the emulator accurately reproduces MISCAN by computing its prediction error. Results. Using an emulator instead of MISCAN, we may reduce the computation time necessary to run a ProbSA by more than 85%. The average relative prediction error of the emulator for overdiagnosis equaled 1.7%. We predicted that 42% of screen-detected men are overdiagnosed, with an associated empirical confidence interval between 38% and 48%. Sensitivity analyses show that the accuracy of the emulator is sensitive to which model parameters are included in the training runs. Conclusions. For a computationally expensive simulation model with a large number of parameters, we show it is possible to conduct a ProbSA, within a reasonable computation time, by using a Gaussian process regression emulator instead of the original simulation model.

All-Cause Mortality for Life Insurance Applicants with a History of Prostate Cancer

OBJECTIVE

- To determine the all-cause mortality of life insurance applicants diagnosed with prostate cancer currently or at some time in the past.

BACKGROUND

- Prostate cancer is common and a frequent cause of cancer death. Both the frequency of prostate cancer in men and its propensity for causing premature mortality require insurance company medical directors and underwriters to have a good understanding of prostate cancer-related mortality trends, patterns, and outcomes in the insured population.

METHODOLOGY

- Life insurance applicants with reported prostate cancer were extracted from data covering United States residents between November 2007 and November 2014. Information about these applicants was matched to the Social Security Death Master (SSDMF) file for deaths occurring from 2007 to 2011 and to another commercially available death source file (Other Death Source, ODS) for deaths occurring from 2007 to 2014 to determine vital status. Actual to Expected (A/E) mortality ratios were calculated using the Society of Actuaries 2015 Valuation Basic Table (2015VBT), select and ultimate table (age last birthday) and the 2013 US population as expected mortality ratios. All expected bases were not smoker distinct.

RESULTS

- The study covered applicants between the ages of 45 and 75 and had approximately 405,000 person-years of exposure. Older aged applicants had a lower mortality ratio than those who were younger. Applicants 45 to 54 had the highest mortality ratios in the first year after diagnosis which steadily decreased in years 6 to 10 with an increase in the mortality ratio for those over 10 years from diagnosis. Relative mortality rate was close to unity for those with localized cancer across all age groups. The mortality ratio was 2 to 4 times greater for those with cancer in 1 positive node, and much greater with 3 positive nodes. For each time-from-diagnosis category, the relative mortality ratios compared to age were highest in the 45-54 age group. The A/E mortality ratios based on the 2015VBT were consistently 3 to 4 times that of the mortality ratios based on the 2013 US population.

CONCLUSION

- The mortality patterns of insurance applicants with prostate cancer were similar to that observed in individuals with prostate cancer in the general population. Applicant age, time to diagnosis and cancer severity were the most significant variables to predict mortality.

PSA screening - for whom and when?

Reasons for and against screening of prostate cancer have been discussed widely over the last decade. In 2014, the European Randomized Trial for Screening of Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) has reported a relative reduction of the cancer-specific survival of 27% in participants who definitely followed the screening protocol. This relative advantage has proven to be stable from year 7 to year 13 after the beginning of screening. Still, the disadvantages of overdiagnosis and overtreatment are the downsides of a population-based screening approach. But given the overall advantage of screening, a risk-adapted prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening using a baseline PSA value at ages 45-50 may significantly reduce the number needed to diagnose maintaining the benefits of screening. PROBASE is a randomized risk-adapted screening trial currently ongoing in Germany to answer this important question.

Cancer mortality in Europe, 1970-2009: an age, period, and cohort analysis

The aim of this study was to interpret long-term trends in cancer mortality. We analyzed age, period of death, and cohort of birth effects for 18 major cancer sites and all neoplasms combined in the European Union and 16 European countries over the period 1970-2009 using data from the WHO mortality database. We used a log-linear Poisson model with a likelihood penalizing function to solve the identifiability problem. The present comprehensive analysis confirms the appreciable declines of cancer mortality since the late 1980s in most European countries. For several major sites, the declines were appreciably greater for cohort effects than for period ones. This reflects - besides the inherent characteristics of the model used - a major impact of tobacco smoking on total cancer mortality, particularly in men, as the role of tobacco in mortality of subsequent generations is largely - although not totally - a cohort effect. For neoplasms largely affected by improvements in management and therapy (e.g. testis, Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, but also breast and colorectal cancer), a favorable period effect is evident. However, there is also a cohort effect as the advancements have been generally greater in younger generations. For several cancer sites, there were considerable differences in cohort and period effects across Europe, and particularly high age-specific estimates were observed in eastern countries.

Utilization of Prostate Cancer Quality Metrics for Research and Quality Improvement: A Structured Review

BACKGROUND

The shift toward value-based care in the United States emphasizes the role of quality measures in payment models. Many diseases, such as prostate cancer, have a proliferation of quality measures, resulting in resource burden and physician burnout. This study aimed to identify and summarize proposed prostate cancer quality measures and describe their frequency and use in peer-reviewed literature.

METHODS

The PubMed database was used to identify quality measures relevant to prostate cancer care, and included articles in English through April 2018. A gray literature search for other documents was also conducted. After the selection process of the pertinent articles, measure characteristics were abstracted, and uses were summarized for the 10 most frequently utilized measures in the literature.

RESULTS

A total of 26 articles were identified for review. Of the 71 proposed prostate cancer quality measures, only 47 were used, and less than 10% of these were endorsed by the National Quality Forum. Process measures were most frequently reported (84.5%). Only 6 outcome measures (8.5%) were proposed-none of which were among the most frequently utilized.

CONCLUSION

Although a high number of proposed prostate cancer quality measures are reported in the literature, few were assessed, and the majority of these were non-endorsed process measures. Process measures were most commonly assessed; outcome measures were rarely evaluated. In a step to close the quality chasm, a "top 5" core set of quality measures for prostate cancer care, including structure, process, and outcomes measures, is suggested. Future studies should consider this comprehensive set of quality measures.

Changes in the outcome of prostate biopsies after preventive task force recommendation against prostate-specific antigen screening

Background

The benefits of PSA-based screening for prostate cancer (PCa) are controversial. The Canadian and American Task Forces on Preventive Health Care (CTFPHC & USPSTF) have released recommendations against the use of routine PSA-based screening for any men. We thought to assess the impact of these recommendations on the outcomes and trends of prostate needle biopsies.

Methods

A complete chart review was conducted for all men who received prostate needle biopsies at McGill University Health Center between 2010 and 2016. Of those, we included 1425 patients diagnosed with PCa for analysis. We Compared 2 groups of patients (pre and post recommendations’ release date) using Welch’s t-tests and Chi-square test. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze variables predicting worse pathological outcomes.

Results

When the release date of the USPSTF draft (October 2011) was used as a cut-off, we found an average annual decrease of 10.6% in the total number of biopsies. The median (IQR) baseline PSA levels were higher in post-recommendations group (n = 977) when compared to pre-recommendations group (n = 448) [8 ng/ml (5.7–12.9) versus 6.4 ng/ml (4.9–10.1), respectively. P = 0.0007]. Also, post-recommendations group’s patients had higher Gleason score (G7: 35.4% versus 28.4% and G8-G10: 31.2% versus 18.1%, respectively. P < 0.0001). Moreover, they had higher intermediate and high-risk PCa classification (36.4% versus 32.8% and 35.5% versus 22.1%, respectively. P < 0.0001). The recommendations release date was an independent variable associated with higher Gleason score in prostate biopsies (OR: 2.006, 95%CI: 1.477–2.725). Using the CTFPHC recommendations release date (October 2014) as a cut-off in further analysis, revealed similar results.

Conclusions

Our results revealed a reduction in the number of prostate needle biopsies performed over time after the recommendations of the preventive task forces. Furthermore, it showed a significant relative increase in the higher risk PCa diagnosis. The oncological outcomes associated with this trend need to be examined in further studies.

A Supervised Learning Tool for Prostate Cancer Foci Detection and Aggressiveness Identification using Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging/magnetic resonance spectroscopy imaging

Prostate cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer in men in the United States. The current main methods for diagnosing prostate cancer include prostate-specific antigen test and transrectal biopsy. Prostate-specific antigen screening has been criticized for overdiagnosis and unnecessary treatment, and transrectal biopsy is an invasive procedure with low sensitivity for diagnosis. We provided a quantitative tool using supervised learning with multiparametric imaging to be able to accurately detect cancer foci and its aggressiveness. A total of 223 specimens from patients who received magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and magnetic resonance spectroscopy imaging prior to the surgery were studied. Multiparametric imaging included extracting T2-map, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) using diffusion-weighted MRI, Ktrans using dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI, and 3-dimensional-MR spectroscopy. A pathologist reviewed all 223 specimens and marked cancerous regions on each and graded them with Gleason scores, which served as the ground truth to validate our prediction model. In cancer aggressiveness prediction, the average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.73 with 95% confidence interval (0.72-0.74) and the average sensitivity and specificity were 0.72 (0.71-0.73) and 0.73 (0.71-0.75), respectively. For the cancer detection model, the average AUC value was 0.68 (0.66-0.70) and the average sensitivity and specificity were 0.73 (0.70-0.77) and 0.62 (0.60-0.68), respectively. Our method included capability to handle class imbalance using adaptive boosting with random undersampling. In addition, our method was noninvasive and allowed for nonsubjective disease characterization, which provided physician information to make personalized treatment decision.

Impact of the United States Preventive Services Task Force 'D' recommendation on prostate cancer screening and staging

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In 2012, the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) issued a grade 'D' recommendation against the use of routine prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based screening for any men. This recommendation reflects critical misinterpretations of the available evidence base regarding benefits and harms of PSA screening and has influenced the nationwide landscape of prostate cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment.

RECENT FINDINGS

Following the USPSTF recommendation, a substantial decline in PSA screening was noted for all age groups. Similarly, overall rates of prostate biopsy and prostate cancer incidence have significantly decreased with a shift toward higher grade and stage disease upon diagnosis. Concurrently, the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has significantly risen in the United States. These trends are concerning particularly for the younger men with occult high-grade disease who are expected to benefit the most from early detection and definitive prostate cancer treatment.

SUMMARY

These emerging trends in PSA screening and prostate cancer incidence following the USPSTF recommendation may have significant public health implications. Due to the long natural history of the disease, a long-term follow-up is needed to provide a better understanding on the implications of such recommendations on disease progression and mortality rates in prostate cancer patients. The future of US screening policy should reflect a targeted 'smarter' screening strategy rather than dichotomizing the decision between 'screen all' or 'screen none'.

A multiparametric approach to improve upon existing prostate cancer screening and biopsy recommendations

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To provide an overview of how genetic, serum, and urine biomarkers can help identify men at high risk for prostate cancer (PCa) and aggressive disease and men who would benefit from prostate biopsy.

RECENT FINDINGS

Screening for PCa is controversial because of concerns about overdiagnosis and overtreatment of nonlife-threatening tumors. Therefore, an approach to screening that includes a detailed family history with genetic testing of risk single nucleotide polymorphisms and high-penetrance genetic variants should be considered. After an elevated serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level has been confirmed, obtaining additional information (family history, biomarkers, and imaging) should be considered before recommending a prostate biopsy.

SUMMARY

There are now genetic tests that can help identify men who would benefit from PSA testing. Additional biomarker and imaging tests should be offered to those men who are confirmed to have elevated PSA values. These new biomarkers and imaging tests can improve the specificity of PSA testing while missing a small percentage of high-grade tumors. The path forward involves a multiparametric risk assessment based on clinical data and these new tests.

Prostate Cancer Screening

During the prostate-specific antigen-based prostate cancer (PCa) screening era there has been a 53% decrease in the US PCa mortality rate. Concerns about overdiagnosis and overtreatment combined with misinterpretation of clinical trial data led to a recommendation against PCa screening, resulting in a subsequent reversion to more high-risk disease at diagnosis. Re-evaluation of trial data and increasing acceptance of active surveillance led to a new draft recommendation for shared decision making for men aged 55 to 69 years old. Further consideration is needed for more intensive screening in men with high-risk factors. PCa screening significantly reduces PCa morbidity and mortality.

Racial disparities in prostate cancer survival in a screened population: Reality versus artifact

BACKGROUND

Racial disparities in prostate cancer survival (PCS) narrowed during the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) era, suggesting that screening may induce more equitable outcomes. However, the effects of lead time and overdiagnosis can inflate survival even without real screening benefit.

METHODS

A simulation model of PCS in the early PSA era (1991-2000) was created. The modeled survival started with baseline survival in the pre-PSA era (1975-1990) and added lead times and overdiagnosis using estimates from published studies. The authors quantified 1) discrepancies between modeled and observed PCS in the PSA era and 2) residual period effects on PCS given specified values for screening benefit.

RESULTS

Lead time and overdiagnosis explained more of the improvement in PCS for older ages at diagnosis (46% [95% confidence interval (CI), 44%-50%] for blacks and 51% [95% CI, 50%-52%] for all races ages 50-54 years vs 98% [95% CI, 97%-99%] for blacks and 100% for all races ages 75-79 years). They also explained more of the narrowing in PCS disparities for older ages (33% [95% CI, 31%-43%] for men ages 50-54 years vs 74% [95% CI, 71%-81%] for men ages 75-79 years). The period effects amounted to reductions of 27% to 40% among blacks and 26% to 38% among all races in the risk of prostate cancer death, depending on the screening benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

Real improvements in survival disparities in the PSA era are smaller than those observed and reflect similar reductions in the risk of prostate cancer death among blacks and all races. Understanding screening artifacts is necessary for valid interpretation of observed survival trends. Cancer 2018;124:1752-9. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Prostate cancer survival in the United States by race and stage (2001-2009): Findings from the CONCORD-2 study

BACKGROUND

The 5-year relative survival for prostate cancers diagnosed between 1990 and 1994 in the United States was very high (92%); however, survival in black males was 7% lower compared with white males. The authors updated these findings and examined survival by stage and race.

METHODS

The authors used data from the CONCORD-2 study for males (ages 15-99 years) who were diagnosed with prostate cancer in 37 states, covering 80% of the US population. Survival was adjusted for background mortality (net survival) using state-specific and race-specific life tables and was age-standardized. Data were presented for 2001 through 2003 and 2004 through 2009 to account for changes in collecting SEER Summary Stage 2000.

RESULTS

Among the 1,527,602 prostate cancers diagnosed between 2001 and 2009, the proportion of localized cases increased from 73% to 77% in black males and from 77% to 79% in white males. Although the proportion of distant-stage cases was higher among black males than among white males, they represented less than 6% of cases in both groups between 2004 and 2009. Net survival exceeded 99% for localized stage between 2004 and 2009 in both racial groups. Overall, and in most states, 5-year net survival exceeded 95%.

CONCLUSIONS

Prostate cancer survival has increased since the first CONCORD study, and the racial gap has narrowed. Earlier detection of localized cancers likely contributed to this finding. However, racial disparities also were observed in overall survival. To help understand which factors might contribute to the persistence of this disparity, states could use local data to explore sociodemographic characteristics, such as survivors' health insurance status, health literacy, treatment decision-making processes, and treatment preferences. Cancer 2017;123:5160-77. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Comparative effectiveness of prostate cancer screening between the ages of 55 and 69 years followed by active surveillance

BACKGROUND

Because of the recent grade C draft recommendation by the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) for prostate cancer screening between the ages of 55 and 69 years, there is a need to determine whether this could be cost-effective in a US population setting.

METHODS

This study used a microsimulation model of screening and active surveillance (AS), based on data from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, for the natural history of prostate cancer and Johns Hopkins AS cohort data to inform the probabilities of referral to treatment during AS. A cohort of 10 million men, based on US life tables, was simulated. The lifetime costs and effects of screening between the ages of 55 and 69 years with different screening frequencies and AS protocols were projected, and their cost-effectiveness was determined.

RESULTS

Quadrennial screening between the ages of 55 and 69 years (55, 59, 63, and 67 years) with AS for men with low-risk cancers (ie, those with a Gleason score of 6 or lower) and yearly biopsies or triennial biopsies resulted in an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of $51,918 or $69,380, respectively. Most policies in which screening was followed by immediate treatment were dominated. In most sensitivity analyses, this study found a policy with which the cost per QALY remained below $100,000.

CONCLUSIONS

Prostate-specific antigen-based prostate cancer screening in the United States between the ages of 55 and 69 years, as recommended by the USPSTF, may be cost-effective at a $100,000 threshold but only with a quadrennial screening frequency and with AS offered to all low-risk men. Cancer 2018;124:507-13. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

The efficacy of prostate-specific antigen screening: Impact of key components in the ERSPC and PLCO trials

BACKGROUND

The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) demonstrated that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening significantly reduced prostate cancer mortality (rate ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.91). The US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) trial indicated no such reduction but had a wide 95% CI (rate ratio for prostate cancer mortality, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.87-1.36). Standard meta-analyses are unable to account for key differences between the trials that can impact the estimated effects of screening and the trials' point estimates.

METHODS

The authors calibrated 2 microsimulation models to individual-level incidence and mortality data from 238,936 men participating in the ERSPC and PLCO trials. A cure parameter for the underlying efficacy of screening was estimated by the models separately for each trial. The authors changed step-by-step major known differences in trial settings, including enrollment and attendance patterns, screening intervals, PSA thresholds, biopsy receipt, control arm contamination, and primary treatment, to reflect a more ideal protocol situation and differences between the trials.

RESULTS

Using the cure parameter estimated for the ERSPC, the models projected 19% to 21% and 6% to 8%, respectively, prostate cancer mortality reductions in the ERSPC and PLCO settings. Using this cure parameter, the models projected a reduction of 37% to 43% under annual screening with 100% attendance and biopsy compliance and no contamination. The cure parameter estimated for the PLCO trial was 0.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed cancer mortality reduction in screening trials appears to be highly sensitive to trial protocol and practice settings. Accounting for these differences, the efficacy of PSA screening in the PLCO setting is not necessarily inconsistent with ERSPC results. Cancer 2018;124:1197-206. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975-2014, Featuring Survival

Background: The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate to provide annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. This Annual Report highlights survival rates. Methods: Data were from the CDC- and NCI-funded population-based cancer registry programs and compiled by NAACCR. Trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancer types by sex were estimated by joinpoint analysis and expressed as annual percent change. We used relative survival ratios and adjusted relative risk of death after a diagnosis of cancer (hazard ratios [HRs]) using Cox regression model to examine changes or differences in survival over time and by sociodemographic factors.

Results: Overall cancer death rates from 2010 to 2014 decreased by 1.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = –1.8 to –1.8) per year in men, by 1.4% (95% CI = –1.4 to –1.3) per year in women, and by 1.6% (95% CI = –2.0 to –1.3) per year in children. Death rates decreased for 11 of the 16 most common cancer types in men and for 13 of the 18 most common cancer types in women, including lung, colorectal, female breast, and prostate, whereas death rates increased for liver (men and women), pancreas (men), brain (men), and uterine cancers. In contrast, overall incidence rates from 2009 to 2013 decreased by 2.3% (95% CI = –3.1 to –1.4) per year in men but stabilized in women. For several but not all cancer types, survival statistically significantly improved over time for both early and late-stage diseases. Between 1975 and 1977, and 2006 and 2012, for example, five-year relative survival for distant-stage disease statistically significantly increased from 18.7% (95% CI = 16.9% to 20.6%) to 33.6% (95% CI = 32.2% to 35.0%) for female breast cancer but not for liver cancer (from 1.1%, 95% CI = 0.3% to 2.9%, to 2.3%, 95% CI = 1.6% to 3.2%). Survival varied by race/ethnicity and state. For example, the adjusted relative risk of death for all cancers combined was 33% (HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.32 to 1.34) higher in non-Hispanic blacks and 51% (HR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.46 to 1.56) higher in non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native compared with non-Hispanic whites.

Conclusions: Cancer death rates continue to decrease in the United States. However, progress in reducing death rates and improving survival is limited for several cancer types, underscoring the need for intensified efforts to discover new strategies for prevention, early detection, and treatment and to apply proven preventive measures broadly and equitably.

When should active surveillance for prostate cancer stop if no progression is detected?

BACKGROUND

A significant proportion of screen-detected men with prostate cancer may be overdiagnosed. Active Surveillance (AS) has emerged as a way to mitigate this problem, by delaying treatment of men, who are at low-risk until this becomes necessary. However, it is not known after how much time or biopsy rounds should patients stop AS and transition to conservative management (CM), if no progression is detected.

METHODS

We used a microsimulation model with natural history of prostate cancer based on ERSPC and SEER data. We modeled referral to treatment while in AS, based on Johns Hopkins treatment-free survival data. We projected lifetime costs and effects of AS (and radical treatment, if progression is detected) under different biopsy follow-up schedules compared to CM, where radical treatment only occurs when men would be clinically diagnosed in absence of screening.

RESULTS

For men with low-risk disease in younger age groups (55-65), AS is cost-effective for up to 7 yearly biopsy rounds. For men older than 65, even one biopsy round results in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, though it may result in QALYs gained for men without previous screening. For men with intermediate-risk disease AS is cost-effective even for men in 65-75 age group.

CONCLUSIONS

The benefit of AS when compared to CM is strongly dependent on life expectancy and disease risk. Clinicians should take this into account when selecting men to AS, deciding on biopsy frequency and when to stop AS surveillance rounds and transition to CM.