Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change

Muscling mussels: Understanding the invasive potential of the South American bivalve Mytella strigata (Hanley, 1843) in the Northern Indian Ocean

In past decades, non-native species invasion has emerged as one of the leading drivers of biodiversity loss in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems globally. In aquatic ecosystems, invasion by bivalve species has increased substantially due to their evolutionary resilience and adaptability. This study aimed to determine the habitat suitability of the South American bivalve Mytella strigata in the northern Indian Ocean using Species distribution modelling. The species occurrence and environmental data for model building were extracted from GBIF, Bio-ORACLE, The World Bank Data Catalogue and GMED. Pearson's correlation (<0.7) and Variance inflation factor (<10) analyses were used to select the environmental covariates. Individual models were built by combining the native range occurrence data of Mytella strigata with the bioclimatic data under the current climatic setting. Ten individual models were built and ensembled to create the final model using the biomod2 package. The variable importance score and the response curve plot were used to identify the most crucial variable and its influence on the models. Distance to port had the highest influence on predicting the distribution of Mytella strigata. The results indicated that the western coast of India as more susceptible to invasion. Our predictions indicate that the species has the potential to become highly invasive in the region, given the vast habitat suitability and documented introduction and presence of the species in the region. This research generated baseline information on the habitat suitability of M. strigata that will aid in managing and restricting its spread in the region. Considering the substantial impact of the species in other introduced ranges worldwide, immediate action should be initiated for the swift management of M. strigata from the Indian coast.

How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.

Climate change and anthropogenic activities shrink the range and dispersal of an endangered primate in Sichuan Province, China

The golden snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) is a rare and endemic species in China. The population of golden snub-nosed monkeys in Sichuan Province has an isolated genetic status, large population size, and low genetic diversity, making it highly vulnerable to environmental changes. Our study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of climate and land-use changes on the distribution and dispersal paths of the species in Sichuan Province. We used three general circulation models (GCMs), three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and three land-use change scenarios suitable for China to predict the potential distributions of the golden snub-nosed monkey in the current and 2070s using the MaxEnt model. The dispersal paths were identified by the circuit theory. Our results suggested that the habitats of the golden snub-nosed monkey were reduced under all three GCM scenarios. The suitable habitats for the golden snub-nosed monkey would be reduced by 82.67%, 82.47%, and 75.17% under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, compared to the currently suitable habitat area. Additionally, we found that the density of future dispersal paths of golden snub-nosed monkeys would decrease, and the dispersal resistance would increase. Therefore, relevant wildlife protection agencies should prioritize the climatically suitable distributions and key dispersal paths of golden snub-nosed monkeys to improve their conservation. We identified key areas for habitat preservation and increased habitat connectivity under climate change, which could serve as a reference for future adaptation strategies.

Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate change

The Fritillaria species ranked as a well-known traditional medicine in China and has become rare due to excessive harvesting. To find reasonable strategy for conservation and cultivation, identification of new ecological distribution of Fritillaria species together with prediction of those responses to climate change are necessary. In terms of current occurrence records and bioclimatic variables, the suitable habitats for Fritillaria delavayi, Fritillaria taipaiensis, and Fritillaria wabuensis were predicted. In comparison with Maxent and GARP, Biomod2 obtained the best AUC, KAPPA and TSS values of larger than 0.926 and was chosen to construct model. Temperature seasonality was indicated to put the greatest influence on Fritillaria taipaiensis and Fritillaria wabuensis, while isothermality was of most importance for Fritillaria delavayi. The current suitable areas for three Fritillaria species were distributed in south-west China, accounting for approximately 17.72%, 23.06% and 20.60% of China's total area, respectively. During 2021-2100 period, the suitable habitats of F. delavayi and F. wabuensis reached the maximum under SSP585 scenario, while that of F. taipaiensis reached the maximum under SSP126 scenario. The high niche overlap among three Fritillaria species showed correlation with the chemical composition (P ≤ 0.05), while no correlation was observed between niche overlap and DNA barcodes, indicating that spatial distribution had a major influence on chemical composition in the Fritillaria species. Finally, the acquisition of species-specific habitats would contribute to decrease in habitat competition, and future conservation and cultivation of Fritillaria species.

Amplicon metagenomics of dung beetles (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Scarabaeinae) as a proxy for lemur (Primates, Lemuroidea) studies in Madagascar

Dung beetles (Scarabaeidae, Scarabaeinae) are among the most cost-effective and informative biodiversity indicator groups, conveying rich information about the status of habitats and faunas of an area. Yet their use for monitoring the mammal species, that are the main providers of the food for the dung beetles, has only recently been recognized. In the present work, we studied the diet of four endemic Madagascan dung beetles (Helictopleurusfissicollis (Fairmaire), H.giganteus (Harold), Nanosagaboides (Boucomont), and Epilissussplendidus Fairmaire) using high-throughput sequencing and amplicon metagenomics. For all beetle species, the ⅔-¾ of reads belonged to humans, suggesting that human feces are the main source of food for the beetles in the examined areas. The second most abundant were the reads of the cattle (Bostaurus Linnaeus). We also found lower but significant number of reads of six lemur species belonging to three genera. Our sampling localities agree well with the known ranges of these lemur species. The amplicon metagenomics method proved a promising tool for the lemur inventories in Madagascar.

Phylogeography and ecological niche modeling implicate multiple microrefugia of Swertia tetraptera during quaternary glaciations

BACKGROUND

Climate fluctuations during the Pleistocene and mountain uplift are vital driving forces affecting geographic distribution. Here, we ask how an annual plant responded to the Pleistocene glacial cycles.

METHODS

In this study, we analyzed the population demographic history of the annual herb Swertia tetraptera Maxim (Gentianaceae) endemic to Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). A total of 301 individuals from 35 populations of S. tetraptera were analyzed based on two maternally inherited chloroplast fragments (trnL-trnF and trnS-trnG). Phylogeographic analysis was combined with species distribution modeling to detect the genetic variations in S. tetraptera.

RESULTS

The genetic diversity of S. tetraptera was high, likely due to its wide natural range, high proportion of endemic haplotypes and evolutionary history. Fifty-four haplotypes were identified in S. tetraptera. Only a few haplotypes were widespread (Hap_4, Hap_1, Hap_3), which were dispersed throughout the present geographical range of S. tetraptera, while many haplotypes were confined to single populations. The cpDNA dataset showed that phylogeographic structuring was lacking across the distribution range of S. tetraptera. Analyses of molecular variance showed that most genetic variation was found within populations (70.51%). In addition, the relationships of the haplotypes were almost completely unresolved by phylogenetic reconstruction. Both mismatch distribution analysis and neutrality tests showed a recent expansion across the distribution range of S. tetraptera. The MaxEnt analysis showed that S. tetraptera had a narrow distribution range during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and a wide distribution range during the current time, with predictions into the future showing the distribution range of S. tetraptera expanding.

CONCLUSION

Our study implies that the current geographic and genetic distribution of S. tetraptera is likely to have been shaped by Quaternary periods. Multiple microrefugia of S. tetraptera existed during Quaternary glaciations. Rapid intraspecific diversification and hybridization and/or introgression may have played a vital role in shaping the current distribution patterns of S. tetraptera. The distribution range of S. tetraptera appeared to have experienced contraction during the LGM; in the future, when the global climate becomes warmer with rising carbon dioxide levels, the distribution of S. tetraptera will expand.

Future distribution of the epiphytic leafless orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii), its pollinators and phorophytes evaluated using niche modelling and three different climate change projections

The identification of future refugia for endangered species from the effects of global warming is crucial for improving their conservation. Because climate-driven shifts in ranges and local extinctions can result in a spatial mismatch with their symbiotic organisms, however, it is important to incorporate in niche modelling the ecological partners of the species studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on the distribution of suitable niches for the ghost orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii) and its phorophytes and pollinators. Thus, its five species of host trees and three pollen vectors were included in the analysis. Climatic preferences of all the species studied were evaluated. The modelling was based on three different climate change projections and four Shared Socio-economic Pathway trajectories. All the species analysed are characterized by narrow temperature tolerances, which with global warming are likely to result in local extinctions and range shifts. D. lindenii is likely to be subjected to a significant loss of suitable niches, but within a reduced geographical range, both host trees and pollen vectors will be available in the future. Future conservation of this orchid should focus on areas that are likely be suitable for it and its ecological partners.

Habitat and ecological niche characteristics of the elusive Hairy-eared Dwarf Lemur (Allocebus trichotis) with updated occurrence and geographic range data

Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is particularly useful in the study of cryptic and elusive species that are only rarely seen, difficult to study in the wild, and simultaneously threatened by a multitude of anthropogenic factors. We collected presence records one such example, the understudied Hairy-eared Dwarf Lemur (Allocebus trichotis), from the literature and supplemented these with observations from surveys in previously unstudied areas to model its fundamental and realized niche throughout Madagascar. We further evaluated habitat characteristics at each sighting location to judge its conservation status and its adaptability toward habitat degradation. We found 31 presence localities in the literature and directly observed A. trichotis a further 23 times. According to the ENMs, precipitation of the driest quarter and maximum temperature of the warmest month mostly influenced its distribution, restricting it to the higher altitudes of the northeastern humid forests of Madagascar. Its fundamental niche, extent of occurrence, and area of occupancy were estimated as 65,819, 53,054, and 16,967 km² respectively. The latter, however, declined by 29.2% since 1990. On a habitat level, it was most often observed in primary forest habitats of different degradation stages (85.7%, n = 21). The fundamental niche of A. trichotis is most likely restricted by climatic factors. Although it can be found in moderately degraded forests, it is known to depend on the availability of tree holes and therefore old-growth forest structures. Ongoing deforestation and habitat fragmentation are likely to be the major threats to the survival of this species. Our ENMs provide evidence on where to intensify survey efforts on the elusive Hairy-eared Dwarf Lemurs of Madagascar.

Nutrient balancing in a fruit-specialist primate, the black-and-white ruffed lemur (Varecia variegata)

Animals' foraging behavior and dietary choices are, in part, driven by their ultimate function: to meet nutritional demands. However, depending on their degree of dietary specialization and the availability and distribution of food resources in their environment, species may utilize different nutritional strategies. With shifting plant phenology, increasing unpredictability of fruiting, and declining food quality in response to anthropogenic climate change, existing nutritional constraints may become exacerbated. Such changes are especially concerning for Madagascar's endemic fruit specialists given the nutrient-limitation of the island's landscapes. In this study, we examined the nutritional strategy of one such fruit-specialist primate, the black-and-white ruffed lemur (Varecia variegata), over a 12-month period (January to December 2018) in Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar. We hypothesized that Varecia would balance nonprotein energy (NPE) to protein (AP) at a high ratio similar to other frugivorous primates, and that they would prioritize protein intake given their high degree of frugivory. We found that Varecia balance NPE:AP at a ratio of 11:1, higher than in any other primate studied to date; however, diets shifted such that nutrient balancing varied seasonally (12.6:1 abundant-9.6:1 lean). Varecia meet NRC suggested recommendations of 5-8% of calories from protein, despite having a diet mostly comprising fruits. However, seasonal shifts in NPE intakes result in significant energy shortfalls during fruit-lean seasons. Flowers provide an important source of NPE during these periods, with flower consumption best predicting lipid intake, suggesting this species' ability to shift resource use. Nevertheless, achieving adequate and balanced nutrient intakes may become precarious in the face of increasing unpredictability in plant phenology and other environmental stochasticities resulting from climate change.

Madagascar’s extraordinary biodiversity: Threats and opportunities

Madagascar’s unique biota is heavily affected by human activity and is under intense threat. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the conservation status of Madagascar’s terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by presenting data and analyses on documented and predicted species-level conservation statuses, the most prevalent and relevant threats, ex situ collections and programs, and the coverage and comprehensiveness of protected areas. The existing terrestrial protected area network in Madagascar covers 10.4% of its land area and includes at least part of the range of the majority of described native species of vertebrates with known distributions (97.1% of freshwater fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals combined) and plants (67.7%). The overall figures are higher for threatened species (97.7% of threatened vertebrates and 79.6% of threatened plants occurring within at least one protected area). International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments and Bayesian neural network analyses for plants identify overexploitation of biological resources and unsustainable agriculture as the most prominent threats to biodiversity. We highlight five opportunities for action at multiple levels to ensure that conservation and ecological restoration objectives, programs, and activities take account of complex underlying and interacting factors and produce tangible benefits for the biodiversity and people of Madagascar.

Nuclear and Mitochondrial Phylogenomics of the Sifakas Reveal Cryptic Variation in the Diademed Sifaka

The most comprehensive phylogenomic reconstruction to date was generated on all nominal taxa within the lemur genus Propithecus. Over 200 wild-caught individuals were included in this study to evaluate the intra and interspecific relationships across this genus. Ultraconserved Elements (UCEs) resulted in well-supported phylogenomic trees. Complete mitochondrial genomes (CMGs) largely agreed with the UCEs, except where a mitochondrial introgression was detected between one clade of the diademed sifaka (Propithecus diadema) and the Milne-Edwards sifaka (P. edwardsi). Additionally, the crowned (P. coronatus) and Von der Decken’s (P. deckeni) sifakas belonged to a single admixed lineage from UCEs. Further sampling across these two species is warranted to determine if our sampling represents a hybrid zone. P. diadema recovered two well-supported clades, which were dated and estimated as being ancient as the split between the Perrier’s (P. perrierii) and silky (P. candidus) sifakas. The reconstructed demographic history of the two clades also varied over time. We then modeled the modern ecological niches of the two cryptic P. diadema clades and found that they were significantly diverged (p < 0.01). These ecological differences result in a very limited zone of geographic overlap for the P. diadema clades (<60 km2). Niche models also revealed that the Onive River acts as a potential barrier to dispersal between P. diadema and P. edwardsi. Further taxonomic work is required on P. diadema to determine if its taxonomic status should be revised. This first genomic evaluation of the genus resolved the relationships between the taxa and the recovered cryptic diversity within one species.

A 24-Year Record of Female Reproductive Dynamics in Two Sympatric Mouse Lemur Species in Northwestern Madagascar

Seasonal reproduction is widespread among primates but the degree of reproductive synchrony and plasticity can vary, even between closely related species. This study compares the dynamics of female reproductive seasonality in two mouse lemur species, Microcebus murinus and M. ravelobensis, in Ankarafantsika National Park, Madagascar, across 24 years. We collected 4321 records of female reproductive state from 1033 individual females (319 M. murinus, 714 M. ravelobensis). The analyses revealed disparate reproductive schedules: While female M. murinus showed high degrees of reproductive synchrony throughout all years, leading to the production of two successive litters, the seasonal onset of estrus (= reproductive activation) in female M. ravelobensis was more flexible than in M. murinus, starting 2-4 weeks earlier, varying by up to 4 weeks between years, and being less synchronized. M. ravelobensis females became reproductively active later in years with more rainfall, in particular rain in February, but the timing of reproductive activation was not related to differences in temperatures. The likelihood of early conception was significantly lower in M. ravelobensis than in M. murinus. This was partly due to delayed reproductive activation in young animals, and a lower likelihood of early conception for females with low body mass in M. ravelobensis. Our results suggest high, adaptive reproductive plasticity in M. ravelobensis that may enable individuals to respond flexibly to yearly environmental changes and expand the reproductive period under favorable conditions. These species differences in reproductive schedules may be the result of the divergent evolutionary histories of the two mouse lemur species in different parts of Madagascar.

Reliability in Distribution Modeling—A Synthesis and Step-by-Step Guidelines for Improved Practice

Information about the distribution of a study object (e.g., species or habitat) is essential in face of increasing pressure from land or sea use, and climate change. Distribution models are instrumental for acquiring such information, but also encumbered by uncertainties caused by different sources of error, bias and inaccuracy that need to be dealt with. In this paper we identify the most common sources of uncertainties and link them to different phases in the modeling process. Our aim is to outline the implications of these uncertainties for the reliability of distribution models and to summarize the precautions needed to be taken. We performed a step-by-step assessment of errors, biases and inaccuracies related to the five main steps in a standard distribution modeling process: (1) ecological understanding, assumptions and problem formulation; (2) data collection and preparation; (3) choice of modeling method, model tuning and parameterization; (4) evaluation of models; and, finally, (5) implementation and use. Our synthesis highlights the need to consider the entire distribution modeling process when the reliability and applicability of the models are assessed. A key recommendation is to evaluate the model properly by use of a dataset that is collected independently of the training data. We support initiatives to establish international protocols and open geodatabases for distribution models.

The Effects of Climate Change on Landscape Connectivity and Genetic Clusters in a Small Subtropical and Warm-Temperate Tree

Climate change is a great threat to global biodiversity and has resulted in serious ecological consequences. Although the potential effects of climate change on genetic diversity have recently received much research attention, little research has focused on the impacts of climate change on genetic connectivity and the relationship between climate stability and genetic divergence. Here, we combined population connectivity with genetic data to predict the impacts of future climate change on genetic connectivity. Coupled with climatic variables and genetic data, we used POPS software to create spatially explicit simulations and predict the dynamics in genetic clusters in response to climate changes. A generalized additive model was employed to test the correlation between climatic stability and genetic diversification. Our findings indicated that a reduction in species distribution due to severe climate change would lead to a substantial loss of genetic connectivity. More severe future climatic scenarios would likely cause greater loss of variability or more distinct homogenization in genetic variation of species. Relatively low interpolated genetic distances are generally associated with areas of greater losses in climatic suitability from the present to the future. The displacement of climatic genetic clusters will challenge species adaptation to future climate change because of the loss of fundamental evolutionary potential. The persistence capacity of plant species may be weakened in the face of future climate change.

Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya

Climate change is projected to have significant effects on the distribution of species globally, but research into the implications in parts of Africa has been limited. Using species distribution modelling, this study models climate change-related risks to the terrestrial biodiversity (birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and plants) of Kenya’s economically-important and ecologically diverse Tana River Basin. Large reductions in species richness are projected with just 2°C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) with birds and plants seeing the greatest impact. Potential climate refugia for biodiversity are identified within the basin, but often overlap with areas already converted to agriculture or set aside for agricultural expansion, and the majority are outside protected areas. Similarly, some protected areas contain no projected refugia at higher levels of global warming, showing they may be insufficient to protect the basin’s biodiversity as climate changes. However, risks to biodiversity are much smaller if the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to ‘well below 2°C’ warming, rather than 2°C only, is met. The potential for refugia for plants and animals decreases strongly with warming. For example, 82% of the basin remaining climatically suitable for at least 75% of the plants currently present at 1.5°C warming, as compared with 23% at 2°C and 3% at 4.5°C. This research provides the first assessment of the combined effects of development plans and climate change on biodiversity of the Tana River Basin, including identifying potential areas for restoration, and contributes to a greater understanding of biodiversity protection and adaptation options in Kenya.

The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders' distribution

AIM

Given that salamanders have experienced large shifts in their distributions over time, we determined how each species of Plethodon in the Pacific Northwest would respond to climate change. We incorporated several greenhouse scenarios both on a species-by-species basis, and also using phylogenetic groups, with the aim to determine the best course of action in managing land area to conserve diversity in this group.

LOCATION

Pacific Northwest of the United States (northern CA, OR, WA, ID, and MT).

MAJOR TAXA STUDIED

Western Plethodon salamanders.

METHODS

Species distribution models were estimated using MaxEnt for the current time period and for several future climate scenarios using bioclimatic data layers. We used several methods to quantify the change in habitat suitability over time from the models. We explored aspects of the climate layers to determine whether we can expect a concerted response to climate change due to similarity in ecological niche or independent responses that could be harder to manage.

RESULTS

The distribution of western Plethodon salamander species is strongly influenced by precipitation and less so by temperature. Species responses to climate change resulted in both increases and decreases in predicted suitable habitat, though most species ranges do not contract, especially when taken as a phylogenetic group.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

While some established habitats may become more or less climatically suitable, the overall distribution of species in this group is unlikely to be significantly affected. Clades of Plethodon species are unlikely to be in danger of extirpation despite the possibility that individual species may be threatened as a result of limited distributions. Grouping species into lineages with similar geographic ranges can be a viable method of determining conservation needs. More biotic and dispersal information is needed to determine the true impact that changes in climate will have on the distribution of Plethodon species.

Adaptive spatial planning of protected area network for conserving the Himalayan brown bear

Large mammals that occur in low densities, particularly in the high-altitude areas, are globally threatened due to fragile climatic and ecological envelopes. Among bear species, the Himalayan brown bear (Ursus arctos isabellinus) has a distribution that is restricted to Himalayan highlands with relatively small and fragmented populations. To date, very little scientific information on the Himalayan brown bear, which is vital for the conservation of the species and the management of its habitats, especially in protected areas of the landscape, is available. The present study aims to understand the effectiveness of existing Himalayan Protected Areas in terms of representativeness for the conservation of Himalayan brown bear (HBB), an umbrella species in high-altitude habitats of the Himalayan region. We used the ensemble approach of the species distribution model and then assessed biological connectivity to predict the current and future distribution and movement of HBB in climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Approximately 33 protected areas (PAs) currently possess suitable habitats. Our model suggests a massive decline of approximately 73.38% and 72.87% under 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) respectively in the year 2050 compared with the current distribution. The predicted change in suitability will result in loss of habitats from thirteen PAs; eight will become completely uninhabitable by the year 2050, followed by loss of connectivity in the majority of PAs. Habitat configuration analysis suggested a 40% decline in the number of suitable patches, a reduction in large habitat patches (up to 50%) and aggregation of suitable areas (9%) by 2050, indicating fragmentation. The predicted change in geographic isotherm will result in loss of habitats from thirteen PAs, eight of them will become completely inhabitable. Hence, these PAs may lose their effectiveness and representativeness in achieving the very objective of their existence or conservation goals. Therefore, we recommend adaptive spatial planning for protecting suitable habitats distributed outside the PA for climate change adaptation.

Genetic population structure of endangered ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta) from nine sites in southern Madagascar

Madagascar's ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta) are experiencing rapid population declines due to ongoing habitat loss and fragmentation, as well as increasing exploitation for bushmeat and the illegal pet trade. Despite being the focus of extensive and ongoing behavioral studies, there is comparatively little known about the genetic population structuring of the species. Here, we present the most comprehensive population genetic analysis of ring-tailed lemurs to date from across their likely remaining geographic range. We assessed levels of genetic diversity and population genetic structure using multilocus genotypes for 106 adult individuals from nine geographically representative localities. Population structure and F ST analyses revealed moderate genetic differentiation with localities being geographically partitioned into northern, southern, western and also potentially central clusters. Overall genetic diversity, in terms of allelic richness and observed heterozygosity, was high in the species (AR = 4.74, H O = 0.811). In fact, it is the highest among all published lemur estimates to date. While these results are encouraging, ring-tailed lemurs are currently affected by ongoing habitat fragmentation and occur at lower densities in poorer quality habitats. The effects of continued isolation and fragmentation, coupled with climate-driven environmental instability, will therefore likely impede the long-term viability of the species.

Ecology and morphology of mouse lemurs (Microcebus spp.) in a hotspot of microendemism in northeastern Madagascar, with the description of a new species

Delimitation of cryptic species is increasingly based on genetic analyses but the integration of distributional, morphological, behavioral, and ecological data offers unique complementary insights into species diversification. We surveyed communities of nocturnal mouse lemurs (Microcebus spp.) in five different sites of northeastern Madagascar, measuring a variety of morphological parameters and assessing reproductive states for 123 individuals belonging to five different lineages. We documented two different non-sister lineages occurring in sympatry in two areas. In both cases, sympatric species pairs consisted of a locally restricted (M. macarthurii or M. sp. #3) and a more widespread lineage (M. mittermeieri or M. lehilahytsara). Estimated Extents of Occurrence (EOO) of these lineages differed remarkably with 560 and 1,500 km² versus 9,250 and 50,700 km² , respectively. Morphometric analyses distinguished unambiguously between sympatric species and detected more subtle but significant differences among sister lineages. Tail length and body size were most informative in this regard. Reproductive schedules were highly variable among lineages, most likely impacted by phylogenetic relatedness and environmental variables. While sympatric species pairs differed in their reproductive timing (M. sp. #3/M. lehilahytsara and M. macarthurii/M. mittermeieri), warmer lowland rainforests were associated with a less seasonal reproductive schedule for M. mittermeieri and M. lehilahytsara compared with populations occurring in montane forests. Distributional, morphological, and ecological data gathered in this study support the results of genomic species delimitation analyses conducted in a companion study, which identified one lineage, M. sp. #3, as meriting formal description as a new species. Consequently, a formal species description is included. Worryingly, our data also show that geographically restricted populations of M. sp. #3 and its sister species (M. macarthurii) are at high risk of local and perhaps permanent extinction from both deforestation and habitat fragmentation.

Cryptic Patterns of Speciation in Cryptic Primates: Microendemic Mouse Lemurs and the Multispecies Coalescent

Mouse lemurs (Microcebus) are a radiation of morphologically cryptic primates distributed throughout Madagascar for which the number of recognized species has exploded in the past two decades. This taxonomic revision has prompted understandable concern that there has been substantial oversplitting in the mouse lemur clade. Here, we investigate mouse lemur diversity in a region in northeastern Madagascar with high levels of microendemism and predicted habitat loss. We analyzed RADseq data with multispecies coalescent (MSC) species delimitation methods for two pairs of sister lineages that include three named species and an undescribed lineage previously identified to have divergent mtDNA. Marked differences in effective population sizes, levels of gene flow, patterns of isolation-by-distance, and species delimitation results were found among the two pairs of lineages. Whereas all tests support the recognition of the presently undescribed lineage as a separate species, the species-level distinction of two previously described species, M. mittermeieri and M. lehilahytsara is not supported-a result that is particularly striking when using the genealogical discordance index (gdi). Nonsister lineages occur sympatrically in two of the localities sampled for this study, despite an estimated divergence time of less than 1 Ma. This suggests rapid evolution of reproductive isolation in the focal lineages and in the mouse lemur clade generally. The divergence time estimates reported here are based on the MSC calibrated with pedigree-based mutation rates and are considerably more recent than previously published fossil-calibrated relaxed-clock estimates. We discuss the possible explanations for this discrepancy, noting that there are theoretical justifications for preferring the MSC estimates in this case. [Cryptic species; effective population size; microendemism; multispecies coalescent; speciation; species delimitation.].

GIS-based modelling reveals the fate of antlion habitats in the Deliblato Sands

The Deliblato Sands Special Nature Reserve (DSSNR; Vojvodina, Serbia) is facing a fast successional process. Open sand steppe habitats, considered as regional biodiversity hotspots, have drastically decreased over the last 25 years. This study combines multi-temporal and –spectral remotely sensed data, in-situ sampling techniques and geospatial modelling procedures to estimate and predict the potential development of open habitats and their biota from the perspective of antlions (Neuroptera, Myrmeleontidae). It was confirmed that vegetation density increased in all parts of the study area between 1992 and 2017. Climate change, manifested in the mean annual precipitation amount, significantly contributes to the speed of succession that could be completed within a 50-year period. Open grassland habitats could reach an alarming fragmentation rate by 2075 (covering 50 times less area than today), according to selected global climate models and emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). However, M. trigrammus could probably survive in the DSSNR until the first half of the century, but its subsequent fate is very uncertain. The information provided in this study can serve for effective management of sand steppes, and antlions should be considered important indicators for conservation monitoring and planning.

Do functional traits offset the effects of fragmentation? The case of large-bodied diurnal lemur species

Primates worldwide are faced with increasing threats making them more vulnerable to extinction. Anthropogenic disturbances, such as habitat degradation and fragmentation, are among the main concerns, and in Madagascar, these issues have become widespread. As this situation continues to worsen, we sought to understand how fragmentation affects primate distribution throughout the island. Further, because species may exhibit different sensitivity to fragmentation, we also aimed to estimate the role of functional traits in mitigating their response. We collated data from 32 large-bodied lemur species ranges, consisting of species from the families Lemuridae (five genera) and Indriidae (two genera). We fitted Generalized Linear Models to determine the role of habitat fragmentation characteristics, for example, forest cover, patch size, edge density, and landscape configuration, as well as the protected area (PA) network, on the species relative probability of presence. We then assessed how the influence of functional traits (dietary guild, home range size) mitigate the response of species to these habitat metrics. Habitat area had a strong positive effect for many species, and there were significantly negative effects of fragmentation on the distribution of many lemur species. In addition, there was a positive influence of PAs on many lemur species' distribution. Functional trait classifications showed that lemurs of all dietary guilds are negatively affected by fragmentation; however, folivore-frugivores show greater flexibility/variability in terms of habitat area and landscape complexity compared to nearly exclusive folivores and frugivores. Furthermore, species of all home range sizes showed a negative response to fragmentation, while habitat area had an increasingly positive effect as home range increased in size. Overall, the general trends for the majority of lemur species are dire and point to the need for immediate actions on a multitude of fronts, most importantly landscape-level reforestation efforts.

Geological and Climatic Factors Affect the Population Genetic Connectivity in Mirabilis himalaica (Nyctaginaceae): Insight From Phylogeography and Dispersal Corridors in the Himalaya-Hengduan Biodiversity Hotspot

The genetic architecture within a species in the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains (HHM) region was considered as the consolidated consequence of historical orogenesis and climatic oscillations. The visualization of dispersal corridors as the function of population genetic connectivity became crucial to elucidate the spatiotemporal dynamics of organisms. However, geodiversity and physical barriers created by paleo geo-climatic events acted vigorously to impact notable alterations in the phylogeographic pattern and dispersal corridors. Therefore, to achieve detailed phylogeography, locate dispersal corridors and estimate genetic connectivity, we integrated phylogeography with species distribution modelling and least cost path of Mirabilis himalaica (Edgew.) Heimerl in the HHM. We amplified four cpDNA regions (petL-psbE, rps16-trnK, rps16 intron, trnS-trnG), and a low copy nuclear gene (G3pdh) from 241 individuals of 29 populations. SAMOVA, genealogical relationships, and phylogenetic analysis revealed four spatially structured phylogroups for M. himalaica with the onset of diversification in late Pliocene (c. 3.64 Ma). No recent demographic growth was supported by results of neutrality tests, mismatch distribution analysis and Bayesian skyline plot. Paleo-distribution modelling revealed the range dynamics of M. himalaica to be highly sensitive to geo-climatic change with limited long-distance dispersal ability and potential evolutionary adaptation. Furthermore, river drainage systems, valleys and mountain gorges were identified as the corridors for population genetic connectivity among the populations. It is concluded that recent intense mountain uplift and subsequent climatic alterations including monsoonal changes since Pliocene or early Pleistocene formulated fragmented habitats and diverse ecology that governed the habitat connectivity, evolutionary and demographic history of M. himalaica. The integrative genetic and geospatial method would bring new implications for the evolutionary process and conservation priority of HHM endemic species.

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia

The Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses are arboviruses predominantly transmitted to humans through the bite of the female mosquito Aedes aegypti. Currently, the vector represents a potential epidemiological risk in several Latin American and Pacific countries. However, little is known about the geographical distribution and bioclimatic suitability of this mosquito in the projected climate change scenarios in Colombia. Using a species distribution model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) based on presence-only records obtained from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), land elevation obtained from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), we produced environmental suitability maps of this mosquito vector for present and future geographic distribution. The future distribution were constructed based on the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) for the years 2050 and 2070, projected according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For the current conditions, Colombia has ~140,612.8 square km of areas with the possible presence of the vector; however, for the future, this will be reduced by more than 30%. For the future conditions, the suitable areas for A. aegypti decreased compared to the present, mainly for the year 2070 under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, however, the probability of mosquito occurrence increases in some departments of Colombia. Areas susceptible to the presence of A. aegypti are affected by climate change. The Caribbean and Andean regions have a high probability of mosquito distribution; therefore, control and epidemiological surveillance are required in these areas. The results can serve as an input to define preventive and control measures, especially in areas with a higher risk of contracting the virus.

A global risk assessment of primates under climate and land use/cover scenarios

Primates are facing an impending extinction crisis, driven by extensive habitat loss, land use change and hunting. Climate change is an additional threat, which alone or in combination with other drivers, may severely impact those taxa unable to track suitable environmental conditions. Here, we investigate the extent of climate and land use/cover (LUC) change-related risks for primates. We employed an analytical approach to objectively select a subset of climate scenarios, for which we then calculated changes in climatic and LUC conditions for 2050 across primate ranges (N = 426 species) under a best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario. Generalized linear models were used to examine whether these changes varied according to region, conservation status, range extent and dominant habitat. Finally, we reclassified primate ranges based on different magnitudes of maximum temperature change, and quantified the proportion of ranges overall and of primate hotspots in particular that are likely to be exposed to extreme temperature increases. We found that, under the worst-case scenario, 74% of Neotropical forest-dwelling primates are likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases up to 7°C. In contrast, 38% of Malagasy savanna primates will experience less pronounced warming of up to 3.5°C. About one quarter of Asian and African primates will face up to 50% crop expansion within their range. Primary land (undisturbed habitat) is expected to disappear across species' ranges, whereas secondary land (disturbed habitat) will increase by up to 98%. With 86% of primate ranges likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases >3°C, primate hotspots in the Neotropics are expected to be particularly vulnerable. Our study highlights the fundamental exposure risk of a large percentage of primate ranges to predicted climate and LUC changes. Importantly, our findings underscore the urgency with which climate change mitigation measures need to be implemented to avert primate extinctions on an unprecedented scale.

Review of the status and conservation of tenrecs (Mammalia: Afrotheria: Tenrecidae)

The mammal family Tenrecidae (Afrotheria: Afrosoricida) is endemic to Madagascar. Here we present the conservation priorities for the 31 species of tenrec that were assessed or reassessed in 2015–2016 for the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Six species (19.4%) were found to be threatened (4 Vulnerable, 2 Endangered) and one species was categorized as Data Deficient. The primary threat to tenrecs is habitat loss, mostly as a result of slash-and-burn agriculture, but some species are also threatened by hunting and incidental capture in fishing traps. In the longer term, climate change is expected to alter tenrec habitats and ranges. However, the lack of data for most tenrecs on population size, ecology and distribution, together with frequent changes in taxonomy (with many cryptic species being discovered based on genetic analyses) and the poorly understood impact of bushmeat hunting on spiny species (Tenrecinae), hinders conservation planning. Priority conservation actions are presented for Madagascar's tenrecs for the first time since 1990 and focus on conserving forest habitat (especially through improved management of protected areas) and filling essential knowledge gaps. Tenrec research, monitoring and conservation should be integrated into broader sustainable development objectives and programmes targeting higher profile species, such as lemurs, if we are to see an improvement in the conservation status of tenrecs in the near future.

Evidences for a shared history for spectacled salamanders, haplotypes and climate

The so-called glacial refugia, formed during the Pleistocene climatic oscillations, played a major role in shaping the distribution of European species, triggering migrations or isolating populations. Many of these events were recently investigated by genetic data, mainly for the European Last Glacial stage, in the Iberic, Italian and Greek-Balkan peninsulas. The amphibian genus Salamandrina, the most ancient living salamandrid lineage, was widespread in Europe until the climatic oscillations of Miocene probably forced it to shelter in the only suitable territory at that time, the Apennines. Nowadays this genus is endemic of peninsular Italy with two parapatric species, S. perspicillata and S. terdigitata, sharing an area of secondary contact formed after the Last Glacial Maximum. Climate is generally identified as the key factor for the interpretation of genetic data. In this research, we directly measure climate influences on the two Salamandrina known species through Ensemble Modelling techniques and post-modelling GIS analyses, integrating updated genetic data in this process. Our results confirm the hypotheses of southwards (and subsequent northwards) shifts, identify glacial refugia and corridors used for the post-glacial re-colonization. Finally, we map a contact zone deserving more sampling effort to disentangle the introgression and hybridization observed.

Effects of Environmental Stress on Primate Populations

Environmental stress on primate populations can take many forms. Abiotic factors, such as temperature and precipitation, may directly influence the behavior of primates owing to physiological demands of thermoregulation or through indirect influences on vegetation that primates rely on for food. These effects can also scale up to the macro scale, impacting primate distributions and evolution. Primates also encounter stress during interactions within and between species (i.e., biotic interactions). For example, selective pressure from male-perpetrated infanticide can drive the development of female counterstrategies and can impact life-history traits. Predation on primates can modify group size, ranging behavior, and habitat use. Finally, humans have influenced primate populations for millennia. More recently, hunting, habitat disturbance, disease, and climate change have increased in frequency and severity with detrimental impacts on primate populations worldwide. These effects and recent evidence from camera traps emphasize the importance of maintaining protected areas for conserving primate populations.

Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots

We performed Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to generate climatically suitable areas for anurans in the Brazilian hotspots, the Atlantic Forest (AF), and Cerrado (CER), considering the baseline and future climate change scenarios, to evaluate the differences in the alpha and beta diversity metrics across time. We surveyed anuran occurrence records and generated ENMs for 350 and 155 species in the AF and CER. The final predictive maps for the baseline, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios, based on an ensemble approach, were used to estimate the alpha (local species richness) and beta diversity metrics (local contribution to beta diversity index and its decomposition into replacement and nestedness components) in each ~50 × 50 km grid cell of the hotspots. Climate change is not expected to drastically change the distribution of the anuran richness gradients, but to negatively impact their whole extensions (i.e., cause species losses throughout the hotspots), except the northeastern CER that is expected to gain in species richness. Areas having high beta diversity are expected to decrease in northeastern CER, whereas an increase is expected in southeastern/southwestern CER under climate change. High beta diversity areas are expected to remain in the same AF locations as the prediction of the baseline climate, but the predominance of species loss under climate change is expected to increase the nestedness component in the hotspot. These results suggest that the lack of similar climatically suitable areas for most species will be the main challenge that species will face in the future. Finally, the application of the present framework to a wide range of taxa is an important step for the conservation of threatened biomes.

Primates in peril: the significance of Brazil, Madagascar, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo for global primate conservation

Primates occur in 90 countries, but four-Brazil, Madagascar, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)-harbor 65% of the world's primate species (439) and 60% of these primates are Threatened, Endangered, or Critically Endangered (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2017-3). Considering their importance for global primate conservation, we examine the anthropogenic pressures each country is facing that place their primate populations at risk. Habitat loss and fragmentation are main threats to primates in Brazil, Madagascar, and Indonesia. However, in DRC hunting for the commercial bushmeat trade is the primary threat. Encroachment on primate habitats driven by local and global market demands for food and non-food commodities hunting, illegal trade, the proliferation of invasive species, and human and domestic-animal borne infectious diseases cause habitat loss, population declines, and extirpation. Modeling agricultural expansion in the 21st century for the four countries under a worst-case-scenario, showed a primate range contraction of 78% for Brazil, 72% for Indonesia, 62% for Madagascar, and 32% for DRC. These pressures unfold in the context of expanding human populations with low levels of development. Weak governance across these four countries may limit effective primate conservation planning. We examine landscape and local approaches to effective primate conservation policies and assess the distribution of protected areas and primates in each country. Primates in Brazil and Madagascar have 38% of their range inside protected areas, 17% in Indonesia and 14% in DRC, suggesting that the great majority of primate populations remain vulnerable. We list the key challenges faced by the four countries to avert primate extinctions now and in the future. In the short term, effective law enforcement to stop illegal hunting and illegal forest destruction is absolutely key. Long-term success can only be achieved by focusing local and global public awareness, and actively engaging with international organizations, multinational businesses and consumer nations to reduce unsustainable demands on the environment. Finally, the four primate range countries need to ensure that integrated, sustainable land-use planning for economic development includes the maintenance of biodiversity and intact, functional natural ecosystems.

Coupling GIS spatial analysis and Ensemble Niche Modelling to investigate climate change-related threats to the Sicilian pond turtle Emys trinacris, an endangered species from the Mediterranean

The pond turtle Emys trinacris is an endangered endemic species of Sicily showing a fragmented distribution throughout the main island. In this study, we applied "Ensemble Niche Modelling", combining more classical statistical techniques as Generalized Linear Models and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines with machine-learning approaches as Boosted Regression Trees and Maxent, to model the potential distribution of the species under current and future climatic conditions. Moreover, a "gap analysis" performed on both the species' presence sites and the predictions from the Ensemble Models is proposed to integrate outputs from these models, in order to assess the conservation status of this threatened species in the context of biodiversity management. For this aim, four "Representative Concentration Pathways", corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissions trajectories were considered to project the obtained models to both 2050 and 2070. Areas lost, gained or remaining stable for the target species in the projected models were calculated. E. trinacris' potential distribution resulted to be significantly dependent upon precipitation-linked variables, mainly precipitation of wettest and coldest quarter. Future negative effects for the conservation of this species, because of more unstable precipitation patterns and extreme meteorological events, emerged from our analyses. Further, the sites currently inhabited by E. trinacris are, for more than a half, out of the Protected Areas network, highlighting an inadequate management of the species by the authorities responsible for its protection. Our results, therefore, suggest that in the next future the Sicilian pond turtle will need the utmost attention by the scientific community to avoid the imminent risk of extinction. Finally, the gap analysis performed in GIS environment resulted to be a very informative post-modeling technique, potentially applicable to the management of species at risk and to Protected Areas' planning in many contexts.

Effects of climate change on niche shifts of Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi (Reptilia: Agamidae) in Western Asia

Genus Pseudotrapelus has a wide distribution in North Africa and in the Middle East. In the present study, we modeled the habitat suitability of two Omani species of the genus (Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi) to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on their distribution. Mean diurnal range and precipitation of wettest quarter are the most highly contributed variables for P. jensvindumi and P. dhofarensis, respectively. The potential distribution for P. dhofarensis in the current time covers the southern coastal regions of Oman, Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and Socotra Island, but the suitable regions were reduced in the future prediction and limited to Yemen, Socotra Island, and Oman. There have not been any records of the species outside of Oman. Analysis of habitat suitability for P. jensvindumi indicated that the species is restricted to the Al Hajar Mountain of Oman and the southeast coastal region of Iran, but there are no records of the species from Iran. Because mean diurnal range will not be influenced by climate change in future, the potential distribution of the species is not expected to be changed in 2050. All predicted models were performed with the highest AUC (more than 0.97) using the Maxent method. Investigation to find unknown populations of these two species in Iran, Yemen, and Socotra Island is essential for developing conservation programs in the future.

Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors

Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr^-1 . The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species (n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata-level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species-specific approaches to examine contributing factors to recent distributional changes and for comprehensive conservation planning for climate change adaptation.