Habitat, predators, and hosts regulate disease in Daphnia through direct and indirect pathways

Pathways linking nutrient enrichment, habitat structure, and parasitism to host-resource interactions

Human activities simultaneously alter nutrient levels, habitat structure, and levels of parasitism. These activities likely have individual and joint impacts on food webs. Furthermore, there is particular concern that nutrient additions and changes to habitat structure might exacerbate the size of epidemics and impacts on host density. We used a well-studied zooplankton-fungus host-parasite system and experimental whole water column enclosures to factorially manipulate nutrient levels, habitat structure (specifically: mixing), and presence of parasites. Nutrient addition increased infection prevalence, density of infected hosts, and total host density. We hypothesized that nutrients, mixing, and parasitism were linked in multiple ways, including via their combined effects on phytoplankton (resource) abundance, and we used structural equation modeling to disentangle these pathways. In the absence of the parasite, both nutrients and mixing increased abundance of phytoplankton, whereas host density was negatively related to phytoplankton abundance, suggesting a mixture of bottom-up and top-down control of phytoplankton. In the presence of the parasite, nutrients still increased phytoplankton abundance but mixing no longer did, and there was no longer a significant relationship between host density and phytoplankton. This decoupling of host-resource dynamics may have resulted from reduced grazing due to illness-mediated changes in feeding behavior. Overall, our results show that the impact of one human activity (e.g., altered habitat structure) might depend on other human impacts (e.g., parasite introduction). Fortunately, carefully designed experiments and analyses can help tease apart these multifaceted relationships, allowing us to understand how human activities alter food webs, including interactions between hosts and their parasites and resources.

Mysterious microsporidians: springtime outbreaks of disease in Daphnia communities in shallow pond ecosystems

Parasites can play key roles in ecosystems, especially when they infect common hosts that play important ecological roles. Daphnia are critical grazers in many lentic freshwater ecosystems and typically reach peak densities in early spring. Daphnia have also become prominent model host organisms for the field of disease ecology, although most well-studied parasites infect them in summer or fall. Here, we report field patterns of virulent microsporidian parasites that consistently infect Daphnia in springtime, in a set of seven shallow ponds in Georgia, USA, sampled every 3-4 weeks for 18 months. We detected two distinct parasite taxa, closely matching sequences of Pseudoberwaldia daphniae and Conglomerata obtusa, both infecting all three resident species of Daphnia: D. ambigua, D. laevis, and D. parvula. To our knowledge, neither parasite has been previously reported in any of these host species or anywhere in North America. Infection prevalence peaked consistently in February-May, but the severity of these outbreaks differed substantially among ponds. Moreover, host species differed markedly in terms of their maximum infection prevalence (5% [D. parvula] to 72% [D. laevis]), mean reduction of fecundity when infected (70.6% [D. ambigua] to 99.8% [D. laevis]), mean spore yield (62,000 [D. parvula] to 377,000 [D. laevis] per host), and likelihood of being infected by each parasite. The timing and severity of the outbreaks suggests that these parasites could be impactful members of these shallow freshwater ecosystems, and that the strength of their effects is likely to hinge on the composition of ponds' zooplankton communities.

Age Structure Eliminates the Impact of Coinfection on Epidemic Dynamics in a Freshwater Zooplankton System

AbstractParasites often coinfect host populations and, by interacting within hosts, might change the trajectory of multiparasite epidemics. However, host-parasite interactions often change with host age, raising the possibility that within-host interactions between parasites might also change, influencing the spread of disease. We measured how heterospecific parasites interacted within zooplankton hosts and how host age changed these interactions. We then parameterized an epidemiological model to explore how age effects altered the impact of coinfection on epidemic dynamics. In our model, we found that in populations where epidemiologically relevant parameters did not change with age, the presence of a second parasite altered epidemic dynamics. In contrast, when parameters varied with host age (based on our empirical measures), there was no longer a difference in epidemic dynamics between singly infected and coinfected populations, indicating that variable age structure within a population eliminates the impact of coinfection on epidemic dynamics. Moreover, infection prevalence of both parasites was lower in populations where epidemiologically relevant parameters changed with age. Given that host population age structure changes over time and space, these results indicate that age effects are important for understanding epidemiological processes in coinfected systems and that studies focused on a single age group could yield inaccurate insights.

Host-pathogen interactions under pressure: A review and meta-analysis of stress-mediated effects on disease dynamics

Human activities have increased the intensity and frequency of natural stressors and created novel stressors, altering host-pathogen interactions and changing the risk of emerging infectious diseases. Despite the ubiquity of such anthropogenic impacts, predicting the directionality of outcomes has proven challenging. Here, we conduct a review and meta-analysis to determine the primary mechanisms through which stressors affect host-pathogen interactions and to evaluate the impacts stress has on host fitness (survival and fecundity) and pathogen infectivity (prevalence and intensity). We assessed 891 effect sizes from 71 host species (representing seven taxonomic groups) and 78 parasite taxa from 98 studies. We found that infected and uninfected hosts had similar sensitivity to stressors and that responses varied according to stressor type. Specifically, limited resources compromised host fecundity and decreased pathogen intensity, while abiotic environmental stressors (e.g., temperature and salinity) decreased host survivorship and increased pathogen intensity, and pollution increased mortality but decreased pathogen prevalence. We then used our meta-analysis results to develop susceptible-infected theoretical models to illustrate scenarios where infection rates are expected to increase or decrease in response to resource limitations or environmental stress gradients. Our results carry implications for conservation and disease emergence and reveal areas for future work.

A healthy but depleted herd: Predators decrease prey disease and density

The healthy herds hypothesis proposes that predators can reduce parasite prevalence and thereby increase density of their prey. However, evidence for such predator-driven reductions in prevalence in prey remains mixed. Furthermore, even less evidence supports increases in prey density during epidemics. Here, we used a planktonic predator-prey-parasite system to experimentally test the healthy herds hypothesis. We manipulated density of a predator (the phantom midge, Chaoborus punctipennis) and parasitism (the virulent fungus Metschnikowia bicuspidata) in experimental assemblages. Because we know natural populations of the prey (Daphnia dentifera) vary in susceptibility to both predator and parasite, we stocked experimental populations with nine genotypes spanning a broad range of susceptibility to both enemies. Predation significantly reduced infection prevalence, eliminating infection at the highest predation level. However, lower parasitism did not increase densities of prey; instead, prey density decreased substantially at the highest predation levels (a major density cost of healthy herds predation). This density result was predicted by a model parameterized for this system. The model specifies three conditions for predation to increase prey density during epidemics: (i) predators selectively feed on infected prey, (ii) consumed infected prey release fewer infectious propagules than unconsumed prey, and (iii) sufficiently low infection prevalence. While the system satisfied the first two conditions, prevalence remained too high to see an increase in prey density with predation. Low prey densities caused by high predation drove increases in algal resources of the prey, fueling greater reproduction, indicating that consumer-resource interactions can complicate predator-prey-parasite dynamics. Overall, in our experiment, predation reduced prevalence of a virulent parasite but, at the highest levels, also reduced prey density. Hence, while healthy herds predation is possible under some conditions, our empirical results make it clear that manipulation of predators to reduce parasite prevalence may harm prey density. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Unhealthy herds and the predator–spreader: Understanding when predation increases disease incidence and prevalence

Disease ecologists now recognize the limitation behind examining host–parasite interactions in isolation: community members—especially predators—dramatically affect host–parasite dynamics. Although the initial paradigm was that predation should reduce disease in prey populations (“healthy herds hypothesis”), researchers have realized that predators sometimes increase disease in their prey. These “predator–spreaders” are now recognized as critical to disease dynamics, but empirical research on the topic remains fragmented. In a narrow sense, a “predator–spreader” would be defined as a predator that mechanically spreads parasites via feeding. However, predators affect their prey and, subsequently, disease transmission in many other ways such as altering prey population structure, behavior, and physiology. We review the existing evidence for these mechanisms and provide heuristics that incorporate features of the host, predator, parasite, and environment to understand whether or not a predator is likely to be a predator–spreader. We also provide guidance for targeted study of each mechanism and quantifying the effects of predators on parasitism in a way that yields more general insights into the factors that promote predator spreading. We aim to offer a better understanding of this important and underappreciated interaction and a path toward being able to predict how changes in predation will influence parasite dynamics.

Viral transmission and infection prevalence in a cannibalistic host-pathogen system

Cannibalism, while prevalent in the natural world, is often viewed as detrimental to a cannibal's health, especially when they consume pathogen-infected conspecifics. The argument stems from the idea that cannibalizing infected individuals increases the chance of coming into contact with a pathogen and subsequently becoming infected. Using an insect pest, the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda), that readily cannibalizes at the larval stage and its lethal pathogen, we experimentally examined how cannibalism affects viral transmission at both an individual and population level. Prior to death, the pathogen in the system stops the larval host from growing, resulting in infected individuals being smaller than healthy individuals. This leads to size-structured cannibalism of infected individuals with the larger healthy larvae consuming the smaller infected larvae, which is commonly observed. At the individual level, we show that the probability of cannibalism is relatively high for both infected and uninfected individuals especially when the cannibal is larger than the victim. However, the probability of the cannibal becoming infected given that a pathogen-infected individual has been cannibalized is relatively low. On a population level, when cannibalism is allowed to occur transmission rates decline. Additionally, by cannibalizing infected larvae, cannibals lower the infection risk for non-cannibals. Thus, cannibalism can decrease infection prevalence and, therefore, may not be as deleterious as once thought. Under certain circumstances, cannibalizing infected individuals, from the uninfected host's perspective, may even be advantageous, as one obtains a meal and decreases competition for resources with little chance of becoming infected.

Rapid evolution of a bacterial parasite during outbreaks in two Daphnia populations

Myriad ecological and evolutionary factors can influence whether a particular parasite successfully transmits to a new host during a disease outbreak, with consequences for the structure and diversity of parasite populations. However, even though the diversity and evolution of parasite populations are of clear fundamental and applied importance, we have surprisingly few studies that track how genetic structure of parasites changes during naturally occurring outbreaks in non-human populations. Here, we used population genetic approaches to reveal how genotypes of a bacterial parasite, Pasteuria ramosa, change over time, focusing on how infecting P. ramosa genotypes change during the course of epidemics in Daphnia populations in two lakes. We found evidence for genetic change - and, therefore, evolution - of the parasite during outbreaks. In one lake, P. ramosa genotypes were structured by sampling date; in both lakes, genetic distance between groups of P. ramosa isolates increased with time between sampling. Diversity in parasite populations remained constant over epidemics, although one epidemic (which was large) had low genetic diversity while the other epidemic (which was small) had high genetic diversity. Our findings demonstrate that patterns of parasite evolution differ between outbreaks; future studies exploring the feedbacks among epidemic size, host diversity, and parasite genetic diversity would improve our understanding of parasite dynamics and evolution.

Predation shifts coevolution toward higher host contact rate and parasite virulence

Hosts can avoid parasites (and pathogens) by reducing social contact, but such isolation may carry costs, e.g. increased vulnerability to predators. Thus, many predator-host-parasite systems confront hosts with a trade-off between predation and parasitism. Parasites, meanwhile, evolve higher virulence in response to increased host sociality and consequently, increased multiple infections. How does predation shift coevolution of host behaviour and parasite virulence? What if predators are selective, i.e. predators disproportionately capture the sickest hosts? We answer these questions with an eco-coevolutionary model parametrized for a Trinidadian guppy-Gyrodactylus spp. system. Here, increased predation drives host coevolution of higher grouping, which selects for higher virulence. Additionally, higher predator selectivity drives the contact rate higher and virulence lower. Finally, we show how predation and selectivity can have very different impacts on host density and prevalence depending on whether hosts or parasites evolve, or both. For example, higher predator selectivity led to lower prevalence with no evolution or only parasite evolution but higher prevalence with host evolution or coevolution. These findings inform our understanding of diverse systems in which host behavioural responses to predation may lead to increased prevalence and virulence of parasites.

An eco-epidemiological modeling approach to investigate dilution effect in two different tick-borne pathosystems

Disease (re)emergence appears to be driven by biodiversity decline and environmental change. As a result, it is increasingly important to study host-pathogen interactions within the context of their ecology and evolution. The dilution effect is the concept that higher biodiversity decreases pathogen transmission. It has been observed especially in zoonotic vector-borne pathosystems, yet evidence against it has been found. In particular, it is still debated how the community (dis)assembly assumptions and the degree of generalism of vectors and pathogens affect the direction of the biodiversity-pathogen transmission relationship. The aim of this study was to use empirical data and mechanistic models to investigate dilution mechanisms in two rodent-tick-pathogen systems differing in their vector degree of generalism. A community was assembled to include ecological interactions that expand from purely additive to purely substitutive. Such systems are excellent candidates to analyze the link between vector ecology, community (dis)assembly dynamics, and pathogen transmission. To base our mechanistic models on empirical data, rodent live-trapping, including tick sampling, was conducted in Wales across two seasons for three consecutive years. We have developed a deterministic single-vector, multi-host compartmental model that includes ecological relationships with non-host species, uniquely integrating theoretical and observational approaches. To describe pathogen transmission across a gradient of community diversity, the model was populated with parameters describing five different scenarios differing in ecological complexity; each based around one of the pathosystems: Ixodes ricinus (generalist tick)-Borrelia burgdorferi and I. trianguliceps (small mammals specialist tick)-Babesia microti. The results suggested that community composition and interspecific dynamics affected pathogen transmission with different dilution outcomes depending on the vector degree of generalism. The model provides evidence that dilution and amplification effects are not mutually exclusive in the same community but depend on vector ecology and the epidemiological output considered (i.e., the "risk" of interest). In our scenarios, more functionally diverse communities resulted in fewer infectious rodents, supporting the dilution effect. In the pathosystem with generalist vector we identified a hump shaped relationship between diversity and infections in hosts, while for that characterized by specialist tick, this relationship was more complex and more dependent upon specific parameter values.

Do predators keep prey healthy or make them sicker? A meta-analysis

Ecological theory suggests that predators can either keep prey populations healthy by reducing parasite burdens or alternatively, increase parasitism in prey. To quantify the overall magnitude and direction of the effect of predation on parasitism in prey observed in practice, we conducted a meta-analysis of 47 empirical studies. We also examined how study attributes, including parasite type and life cycle, habitat type, study design, and whether predators were able to directly consume prey contributed to variation in the predator-prey-parasite interaction. We found that the overall effect of predation on parasitism differed between parasites and parasitoids and that whether consumptive effects were present, and whether a predator was a non-host spreader of parasites, were the most important traits predicting the parasite response. Our results suggest that the mechanistic basis of predator-prey interactions strongly influences the effects of predators on parasites and that these effects, although context dependent, are predictable.

How do noncompetent hosts cause dilution of parasitism? Testing hypotheses for native and invasive mosquitoes

Parasite dilution occurs in varied systems, via multiple potential mechanisms. We used laboratory manipulation and field surveys to test for invader-induced parasite dilution via two specific mechanisms: host-host competition and encounter reduction. In the laboratory, single Aedes triseriatus larvae were exposed to one of eight combinations of: parasitic Ascogregarina barretti, +/-1 cohabiting Aedes albopictus larva during parasite exposure, and +/-1 cohabiting A. albopictus larva after infectious parasite removal. Larval infection intensity (predicted to decrease via dilution by encounter reduction) was not significantly affected by A. albopictus. Adult infection prevalence and intensity (predicted to decrease via dilution by host-host competition) were significantly greater with A. albopictus, suggesting parasite amplification by interspecific competition, an effect potentially mediated by competition increasing A. triseriatus development time. In the field, we tested for effects of potential dilution host abundances on prevalence and abundance of A. barretti in A. triseriatus larvae. Piecewise path analysis yielded no evidence of host-host competition impacting parasitism in the field, but instead indicated a significant direct negative effect of Aedes spp. abundance on parasite abundance in A. triseriatus, which is consistent with dilution via encounter reduction in the field, but only in tree holes, not in man-made containers. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that a noncompetent invader can alter the native host-parasite relationship, but our laboratory and field data yield differing results. This difference is likely due to laboratory experiment testing for per capita effects of dilution hosts on parasitism, but field analysis testing for effects of dilution host abundance on parasitism. Individually, host-host competition with the invader amplifies, rather than dilutes, parasite success. In contrast, our path analysis is consistent with the hypothesis that dilution of parasitism results from increased abundance of noncompetent hosts in the field.

Community-level prevalence of a forest pathogen, not individual-level disease risk, declines with tree diversity

Understanding why diversity sometimes limits disease is essential for managing outbreaks; however, mechanisms underlying this 'dilution effect' remain poorly understood. Negative diversity-disease relationships have previously been detected in plant communities impacted by an emerging forest disease, sudden oak death. We used this focal system to empirically evaluate whether these relationships were driven by dilution mechanisms that reduce transmission risk for individuals or from the fact that disease was averaged across the host community. We integrated laboratory competence measurements with plant community and symptom data from a large forest monitoring network. Richness increased disease risk for bay laurel trees, dismissing possible dilution mechanisms. Nonetheless, richness was negatively associated with community-level disease prevalence because the disease was aggregated among hosts that vary in disease susceptibility. Aggregating observations (which is surprisingly common in other dilution effect studies) can lead to misinterpretations of dilution mechanisms and bias towards a negative diversity-disease relationship.

Genotypic variation in an ecologically important parasite is associated with host species, lake and spore size

Genetic variation in parasites has important consequences for host–parasite interactions. Prior studies of the ecologically important parasite Metschnikowia bicuspidata have suggested low genetic variation in the species. Here, we collected M. bicuspidata from two host species (Daphnia dentifera and Ceriodaphnia dubia) and two regions (Michigan and Indiana, USA). Within a lake, outbreaks tended to occur in one host species but not the other. Using microsatellite markers, we identified six parasite genotypes grouped within three distinct clades, one of which was rare. Of the two main clades, one was generally associated with D. dentifera, with lakes in both regions containing a single genotype. The other M. bicuspidata clade was mainly associated with C. dubia, with a different genotype dominating in each region. Despite these associations, both D. dentifera- and C. dubia-associated genotypes were found infecting both hosts in lakes. However, in lab experiments, the D. dentifera-associated genotype infected both D. dentifera and C. dubia, but the C. dubia-associated genotype, which had spores that were approximately 30% smaller, did not infect D. dentifera. We hypothesize that variation in spore size might help explain patterns of cross-species transmission. Future studies exploring the causes and consequences of variation in spore size may help explain patterns of infection and the maintenance of genotypic diversity in this ecologically important system.

Density, parasitism, and sexual reproduction are strongly correlated in lake Daphnia populations

Many organisms can reproduce both asexually and sexually. For cyclical parthenogens, periods of asexual reproduction are punctuated by bouts of sexual reproduction, and the shift from asexual to sexual reproduction has large impacts on fitness and population dynamics. We studied populations of Daphnia dentifera to determine the amount of investment in sexual reproduction as well as the factors associated with variation in investment in sex. To do so, we tracked host density, infections by nine different parasites, and sexual reproduction in 15 lake populations of D. dentifera for 3 years. Sexual reproduction was seasonal, with male and ephippial female production beginning as early as late September and generally increasing through November. However, there was substantial variation in the prevalence of sexual individuals across populations, with some populations remaining entirely asexual throughout the study period and others shifting almost entirely to sexual females and males. We found strong relationships between density, prevalence of infection, parasite species richness, and sexual reproduction in these populations. However, strong collinearity between density, parasitism, and sexual reproduction means that further work will be required to disentangle the causal mechanisms underlying these relationships.

Size-asymmetric competition among snails disrupts production of human-infectious Schistosoma mansoni cercariae

Parasites can harm hosts and influence populations, communities, and ecosystems. However, parasites are reciprocally affected by population- and community-level dynamics. Understanding feedbacks between infection dynamics and larger-scale epidemiological and ecological processes could improve predictions and reveal novel control methods. We evaluated how exploitative resource competition among hosts, a fundamental aspect of population biology, influences within-host infection dynamics of the widespread human parasite Schistosoma mansoni in its intermediate host, Biomphalaria glabrata. We added size-dependent consumption of shared resources to a parameterized bioenergetics model to predict a priori the growth, parasite production, and survival of an infected focal host coexisting with an uninfected conspecific competitor in an experiment that varied competitor size. The model quantitatively anticipated that competitors disrupt growth and parasite production and that these effects increase with competitor size. Fitting the model to these data improved its match to host survivorship. Thus, resource competition alters infection dynamics, there are strong size asymmetries in these effects, and size-asymmetric resource competition effects on infection dynamics can be accurately predicted by bioenergetics theory. More broadly, this framework can assess parasite transmission and control in other contexts, such as in resource competitive host communities, or in response to eutrophication, food supplementation, or culling.

Biodiversity loss underlies the dilution effect of biodiversity

The dilution effect predicts increasing biodiversity to reduce the risk of infection, but the generality of this effect remains unresolved. Because biodiversity loss generates predictable changes in host community competence, we hypothesised that biodiversity loss might drive the dilution effect. We tested this hypothesis by reanalysing four previously published meta-analyses that came to contradictory conclusions regarding generality of the dilution effect. In the context of biodiversity loss, our analyses revealed a unifying pattern: dilution effects were inconsistently observed for natural biodiversity gradients, but were commonly observed for biodiversity gradients generated by disturbances causing losses of biodiversity. Incorporating biodiversity loss into tests of generality of the dilution effect further indicated that scale-dependency may strengthen the dilution effect only when biodiversity gradients are driven by biodiversity loss. Together, these results help to resolve one of the most contentious issues in disease ecology: the generality of the dilution effect.

Predators can influence the host-parasite dynamics of their prey via nonconsumptive effects

Ecological communities are partly structured by indirect interactions, where one species can indirectly affect another by altering its interactions with a third species. In the absence of direct predation, nonconsumptive effects of predators on prey have important implications for subsequent community interactions. To better understand these interactions, we used a Daphnia-parasite-predator cue system to evaluate if predation risk affects Daphnia responses to a parasite. We investigated the effects of predator cues on two aspects of host-parasite interactions (susceptibility to infection and infection intensity), and whether or not these effects differed between sexes. Our results show that changes in response to predator cues caused an increase in the prevalence and intensity of parasite infections in female predator-exposed Daphnia. Importantly, the magnitude of infection risk depended on how long Daphnia were exposed to the cues. Additionally, heavily infected Daphnia that were constantly exposed to cues produced relatively more offspring. While males were ~5× less likely to become infected compared to females, we were unable to detect effects of predator cues on male Daphnia-parasite interactions. In sum, predators, prey, and their parasites can form complex subnetworks in food webs, necessitating a nuanced understanding of how nonconsumptive effects may mediate these interactions.

Community context for mechanisms of disease dilution: insights from linking epidemiology and plant-soil feedback theory

In many natural systems, diverse host communities can reduce disease risk, though less is known about the mechanisms driving this "dilution effect." We relate feedback theory, which focuses on pathogen-mediated coexistence, to mechanisms of dilution derived from epidemiological models, with the central goal of gaining insights into host-pathogen interactions in a community context. We first compare the origin, structure, and application of epidemiological and feedback models. We then explore the mechanisms of dilution, which are grounded in single-pathogen, single-host epidemiological models, from the perspective of feedback theory. We also draw on feedback theory to examine how coinfecting pathogens, and pathogens that vary along a host specialist-generalist continuum, apply to dilution theory. By identifying synergies among the feedback and epidemiological approaches, we reveal ways in which organisms occupying different trophic levels contribute to diversity-disease relationships. Additionally, using feedbacks to distinguish dilution in disease incidence from dilution in the net effect of disease on host fitness allows us to articulate conditions under which definitions of dilution may not align. After ascribing dilution mechanisms to macro- or microorganisms, we propose ways in which each contributes to diversity-disease and productivity-diversity relationships. Our analyses lead to predictions that can guide future research efforts.

Intraguild predation decreases predator fitness with potentially varying effects on pathogen transmission in a herbivore host

Predators and pathogens often regulate the population dynamics of their prey or hosts. When species interact with both their predators and their pathogens, understanding each interaction in isolation may not capture the system's dynamics. For instance, predators can influence pathogen transmission via consumptive effects, such as feeding on infected prey, or non-consumptive effects, such as changing the prey's susceptibility to infection. A prey species' infection status can, in turn, influence predator's choice of prey and have negative fitness consequences for the predator. To test how intraguild predation (IGP), when predator and pathogen share the same prey/host, affects pathogen transmission, predator preference, and predator fitness, we conducted a series of experiments using a crop pest (Pseudoplusia includens), a generalist predator (Podisus maculiventris), and a generalist pathogen (Autographa californica multicapsid nuclear polyhedrovirus, AcMNPV). Using a field experiment, we quantified the effects of consumptive and non-consumptive predators on pathogen transmission. We found that a number of models provided similar fits to the data. These models included null models showing no effects of predation and models that included a predation effect. We also found that predators consumed infected prey more often when choosing between live infected or live healthy prey. Infected prey also reduced predator fitness. Developmental times of predators fed infected prey increased by 20% and longevity decreased by 45%, compared with those that consumed an equivalent number of non-infected prey. While this research shows an effect of the pathogen on intraguild predator fitness, we found no support that predators affected pathogen transmission.

Ecological Fallacy and Aggregated Data: A Case Study of Fried Chicken Restaurants, Obesity and Lyme Disease

Interdisciplinary approaches are merited when attempting to understand the complex and idiosyncratic processes driving the spillover of pathogens from wildlife and vector species to human populations. Public health data are often available for zoonotic pathogens but can lead to erroneous conclusions if the data have been spatially or temporally aggregated. As an illustration, we use human Lyme disease incidence data as a case study to examine correlations between mammalian biodiversity, fried chicken restaurants and obesity rates on human disease incidence. We demonstrate that Lyme disease incidence is negatively correlated with mammalian biodiversity, the abundance of fried chicken restaurants and obesity rates. We argue, however, that these correlations are spurious, representing both an 'ecologic fallacy' and Simpson's paradox, and are generated by the use of aggregated data. We argue that correlations based on aggregated data across large spatial scales must be rigorously examined before being invoked as proof of disease ecology theory or as a rationale for public health policy.

Genotypic variation in parasite avoidance behaviour and other mechanistic, nonlinear components of transmission

Traditional epidemiological models assume that transmission increases proportionally to the density of parasites. However, empirical data frequently contradict this assumption. General yet mechanistic models can explain why transmission depends nonlinearly on parasite density and thereby identify potential defensive strategies of hosts. For example, hosts could decrease their exposure rates at higher parasite densities (via behavioural avoidance) or decrease their per-parasite susceptibility when encountering more parasites (e.g. via stronger immune responses). To illustrate, we fitted mechanistic transmission models to 19 genotypes of Daphnia dentifera hosts over gradients of the trophically acquired parasite, Metschnikowia bicuspidata. Exposure rate (foraging, F) frequently decreased with parasite density (Z), and per-parasite susceptibility (U) frequently decreased with parasite encounters (F × Z). Consequently, infection rates (F × U × Z) often peaked at intermediate parasite densities. Moreover, host genotypes varied substantially in these responses. Exposure rates remained constant for some genotypes but decreased sensitively with parasite density for others (up to 78%). Furthermore, genotypes with more sensitive foraging/exposure also foraged faster in the absence of parasites (suggesting 'fast and sensitive' versus 'slow and steady' strategies). These relationships suggest that high densities of parasites can inhibit transmission by decreasing exposure rates and/or per-parasite susceptibility, and identify several intriguing axes for the evolution of host defence.

Assessing the direct and indirect effects of food provisioning and nutrient enrichment on wildlife infectious disease dynamics

Anthropogenic resource supplementation can shape wildlife disease directly by altering the traits and densities of hosts and parasites or indirectly by stimulating prey, competitor or predator species. We first assess the direct epidemiological consequences of supplementation, highlighting the similarities and differences between food provisioning and two widespread forms of nutrient input: agricultural fertilization and aquatic nutrient enrichment. We then review an aquatic disease system and a general model to assess whether predator and competitor species can enhance or overturn the direct effects of enrichment. All forms of supplementation can directly affect epidemics by increasing host population size or altering parasite production within hosts, but food provisioning is most likely to aggregate hosts and increase parasite transmission. However, if predators or competitors increase in response to supplementation, they could alter resource-fuelled outbreaks in focal hosts. We recommend identifying the traits of hosts, parasites or interacting species that best predict epidemiological responses to supplementation and evaluating the relative importance of these direct and indirect mechanisms. Theory and experiments should examine the timing of behavioural, physiological and demographic changes for realistic, variable scenarios of supplementation. A more integrative view of resource supplementation and wildlife disease could yield broadly applicable disease management strategies.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'.

Backward bifurcation and oscillations in a nested immuno-eco-epidemiological model

This paper introduces a novel partial differential equation immuno-eco-epidemiological model of competition in which one species is affected by a disease while another can compete with it directly and by lowering the first species' immune response to the infection, a mode of competition termed stress-induced competition. When the disease is chronic, and the within-host dynamics are rapid, we reduce the partial differential equation model (PDE) to a three-dimensional ordinary differential equation (ODE) model. The ODE model exhibits backward bifurcation and sustained oscillations caused by the stress-induced competition. Furthermore, the ODE model, although not a special case of the PDE model, is useful for detecting backward bifurcation and oscillations in the PDE model. Backward bifurcation related to stress-induced competition allows the second species to persist for values of its invasion number below one. Furthermore, stress-induced competition leads to destabilization of the coexistence equilibrium and sustained oscillations in the PDE model. We suggest that complex systems such as this one may be studied by appropriately designed simple ODE models.

Past is prologue: host community assembly and the risk of infectious disease over time

Infectious disease risk is often influenced by host diversity, but the causes are unresolved. Changes in diversity are associated with changes in community structure, particularly during community assembly; therefore, by incorporating change over time, host community assembly may provide a framework to resolve causation. In turn, community assembly can be driven by many processes, including resource enrichment. To test the hypothesis that community assembly causally links host diversity to future disease, we experimentally manipulated host diversity and resource supply to hosts, then allowed communities to assemble for 2 years (surveyed 2012-2014). Initially, host diversity increased disease. Subsequently, host diversity did not directly alter disease. However, host diversity determined the trajectory of host community assembly, altering colonisation by exotic host species and richness-independent host phylogenetic diversity, which together reversed the initial increase in disease. Ultimately, incorporating the temporal dimension of community assembly revealed novel mechanisms linking host diversity to future disease.

Rapid evolution rescues hosts from competition and disease but-despite a dilution effect-increases the density of infected hosts

Virulent parasites can depress the densities of their hosts. Taxa that reduce disease via dilution effects might alleviate this burden. However, 'diluter' taxa can also depress host densities through competition for shared resources. The combination of disease and interspecific competition could even drive hosts extinct. Then again, genetically variable host populations can evolve in response to both competitors and parasites. Can rapid evolution rescue host density from the harm caused by these ecological enemies? How might such evolution influence dilution effects or the size of epidemics? In a mesocosm experiment with planktonic hosts, we illustrate the joint harm of competition and disease: hosts with constrained evolutionary ability (limited phenotypic variation) suffered greatly from both. However, populations starting with broader phenotypic variation evolved stronger competitive ability during epidemics. In turn, enhanced competitive ability-driven especially by parasites-rescued host densities from the negative impacts of competition, disease, and especially their combination. Interspecific competitors reduced disease (supporting dilution effects) even when hosts rapidly evolved. However, this evolutionary response also elicited a potential problem. Populations that evolved enhanced competitive ability and maintained robust total densities also supported higher densities of infections. Thus, rapid evolution rescued host densities but also unleashed larger epidemics.

Temperature Drives Epidemics in a Zooplankton-Fungus Disease System: A Trait-Driven Approach Points to Transmission via Host Foraging

Climatic warming will likely have idiosyncratic impacts on infectious diseases, causing some to increase while others decrease or shift geographically. A mechanistic framework could better predict these different temperature-disease outcomes. However, such a framework remains challenging to develop, due to the nonlinear and (sometimes) opposing thermal responses of different host and parasite traits and due to the difficulty of validating model predictions with observations and experiments. We address these challenges in a zooplankton-fungus (Daphnia dentifera-Metschnikowia bicuspidata) system. We test the hypothesis that warmer temperatures promote disease spread and produce larger epidemics. In lakes, epidemics that start earlier and warmer in autumn grow much larger. In a mesocosm experiment, warmer temperatures produced larger epidemics. A mechanistic model parameterized with trait assays revealed that this pattern arose primarily from the temperature dependence of transmission rate (β), governed by the increasing foraging (and, hence, parasite exposure) rate of hosts (f). In the trait assays, parasite production seemed sufficiently responsive to shape epidemics as well; however, this trait proved too thermally insensitive in the mesocosm experiment and lake survey to matter much. Thus, in warmer environments, increased foraging of hosts raised transmission rate, yielding bigger epidemics through a potentially general, exposure-based mechanism for ectotherms. This mechanistic approach highlights how a trait-based framework will enhance predictive insight into responses of infectious disease to a warmer world.

Conservation of biodiversity as a strategy for improving human health and well-being

The Earth's ecosystems have been altered by anthropogenic processes, including land use, harvesting populations, species introductions and climate change. These anthropogenic processes greatly alter plant and animal communities, thereby changing transmission of the zoonotic pathogens they carry. Biodiversity conservation may be a potential win-win strategy for maintaining ecosystem health and protecting public health, yet the causal evidence to support this strategy is limited. Evaluating conservation as a viable public health intervention requires answering four questions: (i) Is there a general and causal relationship between biodiversity and pathogen transmission, and if so, which direction is it in? (ii) Does increased pathogen diversity with increased host biodiversity result in an increase in total disease burden? (iii) Do the net benefits of biodiversity conservation to human well-being outweigh the benefits that biodiversity-degrading activities, such as agriculture and resource utilization, provide? (iv) Are biodiversity conservation interventions cost-effective when compared to other options employed in standard public health approaches? Here, we summarize current knowledge on biodiversity-zoonotic disease relationships and outline a research plan to address the gaps in our understanding for each of these four questions. Developing practical and self-sustaining biodiversity conservation interventions will require significant investment in disease ecology research to determine when and where they will be effective.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.

Joint effects of habitat, zooplankton, host stage structure and diversity on amphibian chytrid

Why does the severity of parasite infection differ dramatically across habitats? This question remains challenging to answer because multiple correlated pathways drive disease. Here, we examined habitat-disease links through direct effects on parasites and indirect effects on parasite predators (zooplankton), host diversity and key life stages of hosts. We used a case study of amphibian hosts and the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, in a set of permanent and ephemeral alpine ponds. A field experiment showed that ultraviolet radiation (UVR) killed the free-living infectious stage of the parasite. Yet, permanent ponds with more UVR exposure had higher infection prevalence. Two habitat-related indirect effects worked together to counteract parasite losses from UVR: (i) UVR reduced the density of parasite predators and (ii) permanent sites fostered multi-season host larvae that fuelled parasite production. Host diversity was unlinked to hydroperiod or UVR but counteracted parasite gains; sites with higher diversity of host species had lower prevalence of infection. Thus, while habitat structure explained considerable variation in infection prevalence through two indirect pathways, it could not account for everything. This study demonstrates the importance of creating mechanistic, food web-based links between multiple habitat dimensions and disease.

Predation on transmission stages reduces parasitism: sea anemones consume transmission stages of a barnacle parasite

While parasites serve as prey, it is unclear how the spatial distribution of parasite predators provides transmission control and influences patterns of parasitism. Because many of its organisms are sessile, the rocky intertidal zone is a valuable but little used system to understand spatial patterns of parasitism and elucidate the underlying mechanisms driving these patterns. Sea anemones and barnacles are important space competitors in the rocky intertidal zone along the Pacific coast of North America. Anemones are voracious, indiscriminate predators; thus, they may intercept infectious stages of parasites before they reach a host. We investigate whether a sea anemone protects an associated barnacle from parasitism by Hemioniscus balani, an isopod parasitic castrator. At Coal Oil Point, Santa Barbara, California USA, 29% of barnacles were within 1 cm from an anemone at the surveyed tidal height. Barnacles associated with anemones had reduced parasite prevalence and higher reproductive productivity than those remote from sea anemones. In the laboratory, anemones readily consumed the transmission stage of the parasite. Hence, anemone consumption of parasite transmission stages may provide a mechanism by which community context regulates parasite prevalence at a local scale. Our results suggest predation may be an important process providing parasite transmission control.