Cost-effectiveness of nationwide hepatitis B catch-up vaccination among children and adolescents in China

Changes in the etiology of liver cirrhosis and the corresponding management strategies

We read with interest the article by Xing Wang, which was published in the recent issue of the World Journal of Hepatology 2023; 15: 1294-1306. This article focuses particularly on the prevalence and trends in the etiology of liver cirrhosis (LC), prognosis for patients suffering from cirrhosis-related complications and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and management strategies. The etiology of cirrhosis varies according to geographical, economic, and population factors. Viral hepatitis is the dominant cause in China. Vaccination and effective treatment have reduced the number of people with viral hepatitis, but the overall number is still large. Patients with viral hepatitis who progress over time to LC and HCC remain an important population to manage. The increased incidence of metabolic syndrome and alcohol consumption is likely to lead to a potential exponential increase in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)-associated LC and alcoholic liver disease in the future. Investigating the evolution of the etiology of LC is important for guiding the direction of future research and policy development. These changing trends indicate a need for greater emphasis on tackling obesity and diabetes, and implementing more effective measures to regulate alcohol consumption in order to reduce the occurrence of MASLD. In an effort to help cope with these changing trends, the authors further proposed countermeasures for healthcare authorities doctors, and patients.

How to address vaccine hesitancy? Lessons from National Hepatitis B Immunization Program in China

China, with the severe burden of hepatitis B, plays a significant role in the global efforts towards eliminating hepatitis B disease by 2030. Vaccination is recognized as the most effective measure to prevent infectious diseases. However, vaccine hesitancy remains a significant barrier to achieving herd immunity across diverse populations. To address this issue, the health ministries and public health authorities in China have implemented various measures to encourage hepatitis B vaccination. China's National Hepatitis B Immunization Program, initiated in 1985, has been successful in controlling this vaccine-preventable disease. Given the challenges in eliminating hepatitis B, strengthening the National Hepatitis Immunization Program in China is of utmost importance. Through an analysis of policy documents, reports, and scientific papers, the history of the program was summarized, and effective approaches to address vaccine hesitancy were identified. This will help achieve universal health coverage of vaccines and effectively work towards meeting the goals set for 2030.

Association between vaccine dose and risk of hepatitis B virus infection in Fujian Province, China

The increased dose of hepatitis B vaccine has been adopted for newborns since 2013 in Fujian, China. However, little is known about the impact of this measure on hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevention. We used the seroepidemiological surveys conducted in 2014 and 2020 to address the concern. Compared with subjects who received a 5 μg hepatitis B vaccine, participants who took a 10 μg hepatitis B vaccine were associated with a lower risk of HBV infection (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.26, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.10-0.68) and a marginal reduction risk of anti-HBc positive (OR, 0.37; 95% CI: 0.13-1.08; P = .07), but not for HBsAg carrier risk. The relation between vaccine dose and risk of anti-HBc positive (OR, 0.20; 95% CI: 0.05-0.81) became slightly stronger and significant among children investigated in 2020 who probably received universal vaccination. No significant association was found for subjects whose mothers were positive for HBsAg. The current 10 μg hepatitis B vaccines for universal vaccination for newborns are reasonable and effective in HBV prevention. More measures should be taken to reduce the risk of HBsAg carriers for infants whose mothers are positive for HBsAg.

Association of vaccine policy with virus infection and awareness of hepatitis B in Fujian, China

China has regulated its hepatitis B vaccination policy. However, data on the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection have not been updated since 2014. In addition, the impact of the policy on awareness of hepatitis B is limited, especially in Fujian Province where HBV infection is highly prevalent. We conducted a sero-epidemiological survey in five national monitoring counties to address these concerns. A total of 5,873 subjects were included and classified into four birth cohorts according to the policy time nodes (1981, 1992, and 2002). The HBsAg carrier rate for the general population was 8.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.9-9.3). Compared with those born before 1981, adjusted odds ratios (OR) for HBV infection were 0.51 (95% CI: 0.43-0.62), 0.10 (0.08-0.12), and 0.015 (0.01-0.023) among the 1981-1991, 1992-2001, and ≥2002 birth cohorts, respectively; while the OR was 1.26 (1.00-1.57), 0.39 (0.26-0.58), and 0.019 (0.006-0.06) for HBsAg carriage, respectively. Among the 4865 residents aged ≥15 years, hepatitis B awareness has been declining since the introduction of the hepatitis B vaccine into the immunization program (β = -0.25, SE = 0.08, P = .001, and β = -0.20, SE = 0.08, P = .017 for 1992-2001 and ≥2002 birth cohort, respectively). This decline was obvious for the initiation time of the first dose of the hepatitis B vaccine. Although the hepatitis B vaccination policies have helped reduce the infection, the awareness has declined. More measures on the target population are warranted to improve the public's awareness of hepatitis B vaccination in the context of great achievements.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Vaccination Strategies to Prevent Mother-to-Child Transmission of the Hepatitis B Virus Using a Markov Model Decision Tree

Objectives

Currently, in China, several strategies exist to prevent mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of the hepatitis B virus (HBV). These include providing Hepatitis B vaccination and hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG) injection with different types of administration and dosages. The aim of this study is threefold: first, to evaluate the economic viability of current hepatitis B vaccination strategies for preventing MTCT from a public health policy perspective; second, to optimize the current immunization strategy for preventing perinatal transmission of the HBV; and third, to offer policy options to the National Health Commission in China.

Methods

To simulate the disease outcome for the entire life of newborns infected with HBV, a Markov model with eight possible health states was built by using TreeAge Pro 2011 software. In the present study, the model parameters were probability and cost, which were extracted from literature and calculated using Microsoft Excel 2013. The optimal immunization strategies were identified through cost-benefit analyses. A benefit-cost ratio (BCR) > 1 indicated that the strategy had positive benefits and vice versa. A one-way sensitivity analysis was used to investigate the stability of the results.

Results

From a public health care system perspective, we evaluated the economic viability of 11 strategies in China. For all 11 strategies, the BCR was > 1, which indicated that the benefits of all the strategies were greater than the costs. We recommended strategy number 9 as being optimal. In strategy number 9, babies born to hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive mothers were given an HBIG (200 IU) within 24 h of birth and three injections of hepatitis -B vaccine (20-μg each) at 0, 1, and 6 months, and the strategy had a BCR of 4.61. The one-way sensitivity analysis revealed that the full vaccination coverage and effective rates of protection were two factors that greatly influenced the BCR of the different prevention strategies; other factors had little effect.

Conclusion

The benefits of all strategies were greater than the costs. For decision-making and application, the strategy should be based on local socio-economic conditions so that an appropriate immunization strategy can be selected.

Optimal Voluntary Vaccination of Adults and Adolescents Can Help Eradicate Hepatitis B in China

Hepatitis B (HBV) is one of the most common infectious diseases, with a worldwide annual incidence of over 250 million people. About one-third of the cases are in China. While China made significant efforts to implement a nationwide HBV vaccination program for newborns, a significant number of susceptible adults and teens remain. In this paper, we analyze a game-theoretical model of HBV dynamics that incorporates government-provided vaccination at birth coupled with voluntary vaccinations of susceptible adults and teens. We show that the optimal voluntary vaccination brings the disease incidence to very low levels. This result is robust and, in particular, due to a high HBV treatment cost, essentially independent from the vaccine cost.

Incorporating health inequality impact into economic evaluation in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

As well as improving population health, promoting equity in health is one of the key goals of health policy in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, it is less clear how equity is defined, or how it may impact on resource allocation decisions. We investigated the degree to which health inequalities have been considered in economic evaluation of health interventions in LMICs, and what demographic or socioeconomic characteristics were used to define equity relevant subgroups.

AREAS COVERED

We reviewed publications since 2010 from three main databases following the search strategy developed by including the key terms 'health inequalities/health disparities/health equity,' 'economics' and 'low- and middle-income countries' in the title or abstract. Twelve studies were identified, mainly focusing on interventions for the more vulnerable groups such as children and women.

EXPERT OPINION

Some attempts have been made to assess interventions' impact on health inequality and there is increasing interest in evaluating it, although research in this area is lacking. Population subgroups highlighted in the included studies were those differing in socioeconomic status. Most studies reported the results across subgroups to illustrate inequality impact, and the newly developed methods, extended cost-effectiveness analysis and distributional cost-effectiveness analysis, have also been applied.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of universal hepatitis B virus vaccination in Iran: a Markov model analysis

Vaccination is an essential way to prevent the transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV). Various studies have been published on the cost-effectiveness of HBV vaccination, but since the results vary according to the target population and related health outcomes, this study examined the cost-effectiveness of the universal HBV vaccination in Iran. In this economic evaluation study, a decision tree with the Markov model was used to compare the universal HBV vaccination with a strategy of non-vaccination. Health states used in the model included healthy, chronic hepatitis B, compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and death. Analyses were performed from a payer's perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per life-year gained, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were calculated at a 5% annual discount rate. The sensitivity analysis was conducted using Monte Carlo simulation. Analyses were performed using Microsoft Excel and TreeAge Pro 2011 software. In 2017, the estimated cost per dose for any HBV vaccine was $3.20 USD. The universal HBV vaccination was economically advantageous compared to non-vaccination, and the estimated cost of this program per life-year and QALY gained were $6,319 and negative (-) $1,183.85 USD, respectively. Given the uncertainty of all parameters, the model remained robust and reliable. In Iran, the universal HBV vaccination strategy for both health outcomes of QALY and life-years gained was cost-effective and advantageous. The vaccination strategy saved money, increased life years and improved quality of life. Therefore, it is recommended that this program continues to be provided.

The epidemiologic impact and cost-effectiveness of new tuberculosis vaccines on multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in India and China

BACKGROUND

Despite recent advances through the development pipeline, how novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines might affect rifampicin-resistant and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (RR/MDR-TB) is unknown. We investigated the epidemiologic impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of hypothetical novel prophylactic prevention of disease TB vaccines on RR/MDR-TB in China and India.

METHODS

We constructed a deterministic, compartmental, age-, drug-resistance- and treatment history-stratified dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis. We introduced novel vaccines from 2027, with post- (PSI) or both pre- and post-infection (P&PI) efficacy, conferring 10 years of protection, with 50% efficacy. We measured vaccine cost-effectiveness over 2027-2050 as USD/DALY averted-against 1-times GDP/capita, and two healthcare opportunity cost-based (HCOC), thresholds. We carried out scenario analyses.

RESULTS

By 2050, the P&PI vaccine reduced RR/MDR-TB incidence rate by 71% (UI: 69-72) and 72% (UI: 70-74), and the PSI vaccine by 31% (UI: 30-32) and 44% (UI: 42-47) in China and India, respectively. In India, we found both USD 10 P&PI and PSI vaccines cost-effective at the 1-times GDP and upper HCOC thresholds and P&PI vaccines cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold. In China, both vaccines were cost-effective at the 1-times GDP threshold. P&PI vaccine remained cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold with 49% probability and PSI vaccines at the upper HCOC threshold with 21% probability. The P&PI vaccine was predicted to avert 0.9 million (UI: 0.8-1.1) and 1.1 million (UI: 0.9-1.4) second-line therapy regimens in China and India between 2027 and 2050, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Novel TB vaccination is likely to substantially reduce the future burden of RR/MDR-TB, while averting the need for second-line therapy. Vaccination may be cost-effective depending on vaccine characteristics and setting.

Liver cancer mortality over six decades in an epidemic area: what we have learned

Background and aims:

Liver cancer is one of the most dominant malignant tumors in the world. The trends of liver cancer mortality over the past six decades have been tracked in the epidemic region of Qidong, China. Using epidemiological tools, we explore the dynamic changes in age-standardized rates to characterize important aspects of liver cancer etiology and prevention.

Methods

Mortality data of liver cancer in Qidong from 1958 to 1971 (death retrospective survey) and from 1972 to 2017 (cancer registration) were tabulated for the crude rate (CR), and age-standardized rate and age-birth cohorts. The average annual percentage change was calculated by the Joinpoint Regression Program.

Results

The natural death rate during 1958–2017 decreased from 9‰ to 5.4‰ and then increased to 8‰ as the population aged; cancer mortality rates rose continuously from 57/10⁵ to 240/10⁵. Liver cancer mortality increased from 20/10⁵ to 80/10⁵, and then dropped to less than 52/10⁵ in 2017. Liver cancer deaths in 1972–2017 accounted for 30.53% of all cancers, with a CR of 60.48/10⁵, age-standardized rate China (ASRC) of 34.78/10⁵, and ASRW (world) of 45.71/10⁵. Other key features were the CR for males and females of 91.86/10⁵ and 29.92/10⁵, respectively, with a sex ratio of 3.07:1. Period analysis showed that the ASRs for mortality of the age groups under 54 years old had a significant decreasing trend. Importantly, birth cohort analysis showed that the mortality rate of liver cancer in 40–44, 35–39, 30–34, 25–29, 20–24, 15–19 years cohort decreased considerably, but the rates in 70–74, and 75+ increased.

Conclusions

The crude mortality rate of liver cancer in Qidong has experienced trends from lower to higher levels, and from continued increase at a high plateau to most recently a gradual decline, and a change greatest in younger people. Many years of comprehensive prevention and intervention measures have influenced the decline of the liver cancer epidemic in this area. The reduction of intake levels of aflatoxin might be one of the most significant factors as evidenced by the dramatic decline of exposure biomarkers in this population during the past three decades.

Descriptive epidemiology of incidence and mortality of primary liver cancer in 185 countries: evidence from GLOBOCAN 2018

PURPOSE

This study aims to examine the burden of primary liver cancer in 185 countries in 2018.

METHODS

The estimates of incidence, mortality and prevalence of primary liver cancer were procured from GLOBOCAN 2018. The development status of a country was measured using the human development index-a composite indicator of income per capita, education and life expectancy.

RESULTS

Globally, primary liver cancer resulted in an estimated 781 631 deaths at age-standardized mortality rate of 8.5/100 000, and 841 080 cases were estimated to be diagnosed in 2018. Males accounted for 596 574 cases and 548 375 deaths, which is more than twice the burden of primary liver cancer in females (cases: 244 506; deaths: 233 456). The global age-standardized incidence rate was 9.3/100 000 in 2018, varying from Morocco (1.1/100 000) to Mongolia (93.7/100 000). There were remarkable variations in terms of age-standardized mortality rate, too, which ranged from 1/100 000 in Nepal to 75.4/100 000 in Mongolia. East Asia was the top region contributing 55.6% of global cases and 54.7% of global deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Since majority of the primary liver cancer burden pertains to hepatocellular carcinoma and screening approaches are yet to be fully proven, the policy focus must be on prevention approaches through the hepatitis-B vaccine, early detection of hepatitis-C infection, reduced alcohol consumption, obesity control, reduced aflatoxin exposure and containment of other modifiable risk factors.

Cost-utility analysis of newborn hepatitis B immunization in Beijing

Objectives

To evaluate cost-utility of universal Hepatitis B vaccination program in the Beijing city (Beijing).

Methods

A decision-Markov model was constructed to determine the cost-utility of the universal immunization program for infants (universal vaccination program) by comparing with a hypothetic nonvaccination strategy in Beijing. Parameters in models were extracted from Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) annual work report, Beijing health statistical yearbook, National Health Survey report, Beijing 1% population sample survey report, Beijing Health and Medical Price Monitoring Data Platform, and public literatures. The incremental cost‑utility ratio (ICUR) was used to compare alternative scenarios. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were used to assess parameter uncertainties.

Results

The universal vaccination program had increased the utility and reduced cost among infants born in 2016 in Beijing. The ICUR was CNY −24,576.61 (US$ −3779.16) per QALY for universal vaccination program comparing with non-vaccination scenario from healthcare perspective. It was estimated that the universal vaccination would save direct medical treatment cost of CNY 2,262,869,173.50 (US$ 347,962,414.43) and prevent loss of 18322.25 QALYs within lifetime of target cohort. Discount rate accounted for the most remarkable influence on ICUR in one-way sensitivity analysis. The result of probabilistic sensitivity analysis illustrated that all of the ICURs were located in the fourth quadrant of the cost-utility incremental plot undergone 5000 times of Monte Carlo simulation.

Conclusions

Current universal hepatitis B vaccination program in Beijing was highly cost utility. The investment was reasonable for current universal vaccination program in Beijing.

Game-Theoretical Model of Retroactive Hepatitis B Vaccination in China

Hepatitis B (HepB) is one of the most common infectious diseases affecting over two billion people worldwide. About one third of all HepB cases are in China. In recent years, China made significant efforts to implement a nationwide HepB vaccination program and reduced the number of unvaccinated infants from 30 to 10%. However, many individuals still remain unprotected, particularly those born before 2003. Consequently, a catch-up retroactive vaccination is an important and potentially cost-effective way to reduce HepB prevalence. In this paper, we analyze a game theoretical model of HepB dynamics that incorporates government-provided vaccination at birth coupled with voluntary retroactive vaccinations. Given the uncertainty about the long-term efficacy of the HepB vaccinations, we study several scenarios. When the waning rate is relatively high, we show that this retroactive vaccination should be a necessary component of any HepB eradication effort. When the vaccine offers long-lasting protection, the voluntary retroactive vaccination brings the disease incidence to sufficiently low levels. Also, we find that the optimal vaccination rates are almost independent of the vaccination coverage at birth. Moreover, it is in an individual's self-interest to vaccinate (and potentially re-vaccinate) at a rate just slightly above the vaccine waning rate.

Tenofovir prophylaxis for preventing mother-to-child hepatitis B virus transmission in China: A cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate whether tenofovir prophylaxis for mothers with high viral loads in late pregnancy is a cost-effective way to prevent mother-to-child hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission in China.

METHODS

A decision tree Markov model was constructed for a cohort of infants born to HBV surface antigen-positive mothers in China, 2016. The expected cost and effectiveness were compared between the current active-passive immunoprophylaxis strategy and the tenofovir prophylaxis strategy, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated. One-way and multi-way probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

For 100,000 babies born to mothers positive for hepatitis B surface antigen, tenofovir prophylaxis strategy will prevent 2213 perinatal HBV infections and will gain 931 quality-adjusted life years when compared with the current active-passive immunoprophylaxis strategy. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was ￥59,973 ($9087) per quality-adjusted life years gained. This result was robust over a wide range of assumptions.

CONCLUSIONS

Tenofovir prophylaxis for mothers with high viral loads in late pregnancy was found to be more cost-effective than the current active-passive immunoprophylaxis alone. Embedding tenofovir prophylaxis for mothers with high virus loads into the present hepatitis B prevention strategies should be considered to further prevent mother-to-child hepatitis B transmission in China.

Predicting Hepatitis B Virus Infection Based on Health Examination Data of Community Population

Despite a decline in the prevalence of hepatitis B in China, the disease burden remains high. Large populations unaware of infection risk often fail to meet the ideal treatment window, resulting in poor prognosis. The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate models identifying high-risk populations who should be tested for hepatitis B surface antigen. Data came from a large community-based health screening, including 97,173 individuals, with an average age of 54.94. A total of 33 indicators were collected as model predictors, including demographic characteristics, routine blood indicators, and liver function. Borderline-Synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was conducted to preprocess the data and then four predictive models, namely, the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), and logistic regression (LR) algorithms, were developed. The positive rate of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) was 8.27%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for XGBoost, RF, DT, and LR models were 0.779, 0.752, 0.619, and 0.742, respectively. The Borderline-SMOTE XGBoost combined model outperformed the other models, which correctly predicted 13,637/19,435 cases (sensitivity 70.8%, specificity 70.1%), and the variable importance plot of XGBoost model indicated that age was of high importance. The prediction model can be used to accurately identify populations at high risk of hepatitis B infection that should adopt timely appropriate medical treatment measures.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of hepatitis B vaccine booster in children born to HBsAg-positive mothers in rural China

OBJECTIVE

In rural areas of China with highly endemic for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, protective efficacy was observed in adulthood when a one-dose HBV vaccine booster was administered to high-risk children born to mothers who were positive for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of an HBV vaccine booster in this specific group of children when given at 10 years of age.

METHODS

Two potential strategies were considered: strategy 1 was a one-dose booster given if the child was negative on HBsAg screening; strategy 2 was a one-dose booster given if the child was negative on both HBsAg plus anti-HBs screening. A decision tree combined with a Markov model was developed to simulate the booster intervention process and to simulate the natural history of HBV infection in a cohort of 10-year-old children who were born to HBsAg-positive mothers. The model was calibrated based on multiple selected outcomes. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were measured from a societal perspective. Cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) of the different strategies were compared in both base-case and one-way sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Compared to the current practice of 'no screening and no booster', both strategy 1 and strategy 2 were cost-saving, with CERs estimated at US$ -6961 and US$ -6872 per QALY gained, respectively. In the one-way sensitivity analysis for strategy 1, all the CERs were found to be less than US$ -5000 per QALY gained after considering the uncertainty of all the variables, including vaccination protective efficacy, natural history, behavior, and various costs and utility weights. In a 'worst case' scenario (all parameter values simultaneously being at the worst), the CER of strategy 1 increased to US$ 3263 per QALY gained, which was still less than the GDP per capita of China in 2016 (US$ 8126).

CONCLUSIONS

A hepatitis B vaccine booster given to children born to HBsAg-positive mothers in rural China would be cost-effective and could be considered in HBV endemic areas.

Hepatitis B vaccination among 1997-2011 birth cohorts in rural China: the potential for further catch-up vaccination and factors associated with infant coverage rates

Hepatitis B vaccination rates in China have recently increased. This study aimed to investigate infant vaccination coverage for birth cohorts from 1997 to 2011 in rural regions and to assess catch-up vaccination potential. We used questionnaire-based interviews from a cross-section of 6,529 individuals from seven provinces. Logistic regression analyses were used to model two measures of infant vaccination status, namely, birth dose within 24 hours and three doses within the first year of life. During interviews, individuals' vaccination status and vaccination plan were recorded. Unvaccinated individuals without plans for future vaccination were presented with a hypothetical offer of free vaccination and indirect cost compensation. Institutional birth rates were higher than vaccination rates, but both increased over time. Vaccination coverage rates were not significantly associated with sex. Infant vaccination coverage was positively associated with a mother's educational level, household income level, knowledge of transmission routes, and perceived duration of protection obtained through vaccination. Vaccination status at the time of the survey showed the occurrence of catch-up vaccinations, but a notable percentage of individuals remained unvaccinated and had no plans for future vaccination. Of these individuals, approximately 50% were prepared to accept vaccination if offered free of charge.

Prevention of Chronic Hepatitis B after 3 Decades of Escalating Vaccination Policy, China

China’s hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevention policy has been evaluated through nationally representative serologic surveys conducted in 1992 and 2006. We report results of a 2014 serologic survey and reanalysis of the 1992 and 2006 surveys in the context of program policy. The 2014 survey used a 2-stage sample strategy in which townships were selected from 160 longstanding, nationally representative, county-level disease surveillance points, and persons 1–29 years of age were invited to participate. The 2014 sample size was 31,713; the response rate was 83.3%. Compared with the 1992 pre–recombinant vaccine survey, HBV surface antigen prevalence declined 46% by 2006 and by 52% by 2014. Among children <5 years of age, the decline was 97%. China’s HBV prevention program, targeted toward interrupting perinatal transmission, has been highly successful and increasingly effective. However, this progress must be sustained for decades to come, and elimination of HBV transmission will require augmented strategies.

Markov modeling in hepatitis B screening and linkage to care

Background

With up to 240 million people chronically infected with hepatitis B worldwide, including an estimated 2 million in the United States, widespread screening is needed to link the infected to care and decrease the possible consequences of untreated infection, including liver cancer, cirrhosis and death. Screening is currently fraught with challenges in both the developed and developing world. New point-of-care tests may have advantages over standard-of-care tests in terms of cost-effectiveness and linkage to care. Stochastic modeling is applied here for relative utility assessment of point-of-care tests and standard-of-care tests for screening.

Methods

We analyzed effects of point-of-care versus standard-of-care testing using Markov models for disease progression in individual patients. Simulations of large cohorts with distinctly quantified models permitted the assessment of particular screening schemes. The validity of the trends observed is supported by sensitivity analyses for the simulation parameters.

Results

Increased utilization of point-of-care screening was shown to decrease hepatitis B-related mortalities and increase life expectancy at low projected expense.

Conclusions

The results suggest that standard-of-care screening should be substituted by point-of-care tests resulting in improved linkage to care and decrease in long-term complications.

Roadmap to control HBV and HDV epidemics in China

PURPOSE

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is endemic in China. Almost 10% of HBV infected individuals are also infected with hepatitis D virus (HDV) which has a 5-10 times higher mortality rate than HBV mono-infection. The aim of this manuscript is to devise strategies that can not only control HBV infections but also HDV infections in China under the current health care budget in an optimal manner.

METHODS

Using a mathematical model, an annual budget of $10billion was optimally allocated among five interventions namely, testing and HBV adult vaccination, treatment for mono-infected and dually-infected individuals, second line treatment for HBV mono-infections, and awareness programs.

RESULTS

We determine that the optimal strategy is to test and treat both infections as early as possible while applying awareness programs at full intensity. Under this strategy, an additional 19.8million HBV, 1.9million HDV infections and 0.25million lives will be saved over the next 10years at a cost-savings of $79billion than performing no intervention. Introduction of second line treatment does not add a significant economic burden yet prevents 1.4million new HBV infections and 15,000 new HDV infections.

CONCLUSION

Test and treatment programs are highly efficient in reducing HBV and HDV prevalence in the population. Under the current health budget in China, not only test and treat programs but awareness programs and second line treatment can also be implemented that minimizes prevalence and mortality, and maximizes economic benefits.

Real-World Data for the Evaluation of Transarterial Radioembolization versus Sorafenib in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

OBJECTIVES

To perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the use of transarterial radioembolization (TARE) with that of sorafenib in the treatment of patients with intermediate or advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system.

METHODS

Patient-level data were consecutively recorded and collected at three oncology centers in Italy. A propensity score matching was performed to compare patients with similar clinical characteristics who underwent TARE or sorafenib treatment. Clinical data from the matched cohorts were used to populate a Markov model to project, on a lifetime horizon, life years, quality-adjusted life years, and economic outcomes associated with TARE and sorafenib for both intermediate and advanced HCC stages.

RESULTS

Starting from data covering 389 and 241 patients who underwent TARE and sorafenib treatment, respectively, the propensity score matching yielded a total of 308 matched patients. For intermediate-stage patients, the model estimated for TARE versus sorafenib an incremental cost-utility ratio of €3,302/QALY (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €1,865 per life year gained), whereas for patients in advanced stage TARE dominated (lower costs and greater health improvements) compared with sorafenib.

CONCLUSIONS

From an Italian health care service perspective, TARE could be a cost-effective strategy in comparison with sorafenib for patients with intermediate or advanced HCC. The results from forthcoming randomized controlled trials comparing TARE with sorafenib will be able to confirm or reject the validity of this preliminary evaluation. In the meantime, decision makers can use these results to control and coordinate the diffusion of the technology.

Inequality in the hepatitis B awareness level in rural residents from 7 provinces in China

The hepatitis B (HB) awareness level is an important factor affecting the rates of HB virus vaccination. To better understand income-related inequalities in the HB awareness level, it is imperative to identify the sources of inequalities and assess the contribution rates of these influential factors. This study analyzed the unequal distribution of the HB awareness level and the contributions of various influential factors. We performed a cross-sectional household survey with questionnaire-based, face-to-face interviews in 7 Chinese provinces. Responses from 7271 respondents were used in this analysis. Multinomial logistic regression was used for the analysis of contributing factors, and the concentration index was used as a measure of HB awareness inequalities. The HB awareness level varied across participants with different characteristics. Multinomial logistic regression of the explanatory factors of the HB awareness level showed that several estimated coefficients and relative risk ratios were statistically significant for middle- and high-level awareness, except for sex, occupation, and household income. The concentration index of the HB knowledge score was 0.140, indicating inequality gradients disadvantageous to the poor. The contribution rate of socioeconomic factors was the largest (60.8%), followed by demographic characteristics (29.0%) and geographic factors (4.3%). Demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic factors are associated with the HB awareness inequality. Therefore, to reduce inequality, HB-related health education targeting individuals with low socioeconomic status should be performed. Less-developed provinces, especially with high proportions of poor residents, warrant particular attention. Our findings may be beneficial to improve the HB virus vaccination rate for individuals with low socioeconomic status.

Hepatitis B immunization for indigenous adults, Australia

Objective

To quantify the disparity in incidence of hepatitis B between indigenous and non-indigenous people in Australia, and to estimate the potential impact of a hepatitis B immunization programme targeting non-immune indigenous adults.

Methods

Using national data on persons with newly acquired hepatitis B disease notified between 2005 and 2012, we estimated incident infection rates and rate ratios comparing indigenous and non-indigenous people, with adjustments for underreporting. The potential impact of a hepatitis B immunization programme targeting non-immune indigenous adults was projected using a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation model.

Findings

Of the 54 522 persons with hepatitis B disease notified between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2012, 1953  infections were newly acquired. Acute hepatitis B infection notification rates were significantly higher for indigenous than non-indigenous Australians. The rates per 100 000 population for all ages were 3.6 (156/4 368 511) and 1.1 (1797/168 449 302) for indigenous and non-indigenous people respectively. The rate ratio of age-standardized notifications was 4.0 (95% confidence interval: 3.7–4.3). If 50% of non-immune indigenous adults (20% of all indigenous adults) were vaccinated over a 10-year programme a projected 527–549 new cases of acute hepatitis B would be prevented.

Conclusion

There continues to be significant health inequity between indigenous and non-indigenous Australians in relation to vaccine-preventable hepatitis B disease. An immunization programme targeting indigenous Australian adults could have considerable impact in terms of cases of acute hepatitis B prevented, with a relatively low number needed to vaccinate to prevent each case.

Recognizing the impact of endemic hepatitis D virus on hepatitis B virus eradication

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) in conjunction with hepatitis B virus (HBV) increases adult morbidity and mortality. A number of studies have performed cost-benefit analyses for HBV interventions, but they have ignored the impact of HDV on these outcomes.

METHODS

Using a mathematical model of HBV-HDV epidemiology, we compare health benefits and cost outcomes of four interventions: testing with HBV adult vaccination (diagnosis), diagnosis with antiviral treatment for HBV infections (mono-infections), diagnosis with antiviral treatment for HBV-HDV infections (dual-infections), and awareness programs. The relationship between optimal levels and outcomes of each of these interventions and HDV prevalence in HBV infected individuals ranging from 0 to 50% is determined.

RESULTS

Over a 50 year period under no intervention, HBV prevalence, per capita total cost and death toll increase by 2.25%, -$11 and 2.6-fold respectively in moderate HDV endemic regions compared to mono-infected regions; the corresponding values for high HDV endemic regions are 4.2%, -$21 and 3.9-fold. Optimal interventions can be strategized similarly in mono and dually endemic regions. Only implementation of all four interventions achieves a very low HBV prevalence of around 1.5% in a moderate HDV endemic region such as China, with 2.8 million fewer deaths compared to no intervention. Although the policy of implementation of all four interventions costs additional $382 billion compared to no intervention, it still remains cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1400/QALY. Very high efficacy awareness programs achieve less prevalence with fewer deaths at a lower cost compared to treatment and/or vaccination programs.

CONCLUSION

HDV substantially affects the performance of any HBV-related intervention. Its exclusion results in over-estimation of the effectiveness of HBV interventions.

Cost-effectiveness of antiviral therapy during late pregnancy to prevent perinatal transmission of hepatitis B virus

Background. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections are perinatally transmitted from chronically infected mothers. Supplemental antiviral therapy during late pregnancy with lamivudine (LAM), telbivudine (LdT), or tenofovir (TDF) can substantially reduce perinatal HBV transmission compared to postnatal immunoprophylaxis (IP) alone. However, the cost-effectiveness of these measures is not clear.

Aim. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective of supplemental antiviral agents for preventing perinatal HBV transmission in mothers with high viral load (>6 log₁₀ copies/mL).

Methods. A systematic review and network meta-analysis were performed for the risk of perinatal HBV transmission with antiviral therapies. A decision analysis was conducted to evaluate the clinical and economic outcomes in China of four competing strategies: postnatal IP alone (strategy IP), or in combination with perinatal LAM (strategy LAM + IP), LdT (strategy LdT + IP), or TDF (strategy TDF + IP). Antiviral treatments were administered from week 28 of gestation to 4 weeks after birth. Outcomes included treatment-related costs, number of infections, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). One- and two-way sensitivity analyses were performed to identify influential clinical and cost-related variables. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to estimate the probabilities of being cost-effective for each strategy.

Results. LdT + IP and TDF + IP averted the most infections and HBV-related deaths, and gained the most QALYs. IP and TDF + IP were dominated as they resulted in less or equal QALYs with higher associated costs. LdT + IP had an incremental $2,891 per QALY gained (95% CI [$932–$20,372]) compared to LAM + IP (GDP per capita for China in 2013 was $6,800). One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the cost-effectiveness of LdT + IP was only sensitive to the relative risk of HBV transmission comparing LdT + IP with LAM + IP. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated that LdT + IP was cost-effective in most cases across willingness-to-pay range of $6,800 ∼ $20,400 per QALY gained.

Conclusions. For pregnant HBV-infected women with high levels of viremia, supplemental use of LdT during late pregnancy combined with postnatal IP for infants is cost-effective in China.

Cost-Effectiveness and Cost Thresholds of Generic and Brand Drugs in a National Chronic Hepatitis B Treatment Program in China

Chronic liver disease and liver cancer associated with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are leading causes of death among adults in China. Although newborn hepatitis B immunization has successfully reduced the prevalence of CHB in children, about 100 million Chinese adults remain chronically infected. If left unmanaged, 15–25% will die from liver cancer or liver cirrhosis. Antiviral treatment is not necessary for all patients with CHB, but when it is indicated, good response to treatment would prevent disease progression and reduce disease mortality and morbidity, and costly complications. The aim of this study is to analyze the cost-effectiveness of generic and brand antiviral drugs for CHB treatment in China, and assessing various thresholds at which a highly potent, low resistance antiviral drug would be cost-saving and/or cost-effective to introduce in a national treatment program. We developed a Markov simulation model of disease progression using effectiveness and cost data from the medical literature. We measured life-time costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and clinical outcomes. The no treatment strategy incurred the highest health care costs ($12,932-$25,293) per patient, and the worst health outcomes, compared to the antiviral treatment strategies. Monotherapy with either entecavir or tenofovir yielded the most QALYs (14.10–19.02) for both HBeAg-positive and negative patients, with or without cirrhosis. Threshold analysis showed entercavir or tenofovir treatment would be cost saving if the drug price is $32–75 (195–460 RMB) per month, highly cost-effective at $62–110 (379–670 RMB) per month and cost-effective at $63–120 (384–734 RMB) per month. This study can support policy decisions regarding the implementation of a national health program for chronic hepatitis B treatment in China at the population level.

An economic analysis of adult hepatitis B vaccination in China

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

With the universal infant hepatitis B vaccination (HepB) program, China has made remarkable achievements to prevent and control hepatitis B. In order to further reduce hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, the Chinese government is considering implementing a widespread adult HBV vaccination campaign. We performed an economic analysis of two different adult HepB vaccination strategies for 21-59-years-olds: vaccination without screening and screening-based vaccination.

METHODS

Cost-benefit analyses were conducted. All 21-59-year-olds were divided into two groups: young adults (ages 21-39) and middle-aged adults (ages 40-59). Costs and benefits were estimated using the direct cost and societal (direct and indirect costs) perspectives. All costs and benefits were adjusted to 2014 US dollars, where future values were discounted at a 3% annual rate. We calculated benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) of the two vaccination strategies for the two different age groups. Sensitivity analyses varied key parameters within plausible ranges.

RESULTS

Among young adults, the direct and societal BCRs for a vaccination campaign with no screening would be 1.06 and 1.42; with a screening-based vaccination campaign, the model estimated the direct and societal BCRs would be 1.19 and 1.73. Among middle-aged adults, the direct and societal BCRs for a vaccination campaign without screening would be 0.59 and 0.59; with a screening-based vaccination campaign, the model estimated the direct and societal BCRs would be 0.68 and 0.73.

CONCLUSION

The results of our study support a HepB vaccination campaign for young adults. Additionally, a vaccination campaign with screening appeared to provide greater value than a vaccination without screening.

The doses of 10 μg should replace the doses of 5 μg in newborn hepatitis B vaccination in China: A cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVE

To identify whether Chinese current series of three 5 μg doses for newborn hepatitis B vaccination should be replaced by the series of three 10 μg doses.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from the societal perspective based on the constructed decision tree-Markov model. Model parameters were estimated from published literatures, government documents and our surveys. The expected cost and effectiveness were compared between the 3-dose 5 μg series (the 5 μg strategy) and the 3-dose 10 μg series (the 10 μg strategy), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, additional cost per quality-adjusted life-years gained) was calculated. Threshold values of the efficacy difference of the two series for the ICER=0, 1 and 3 times per capita gross domestic product were analyzed under different scenarios to understand whether the 10 μg strategy should replace the 5 μg strategy according to the recommendation of World Health Organization.

RESULTS

The 10 μg strategy would be cost-saving compared with the 5 μg strategy under the base-case scenario. Under keeping all the other parameters at the base-case values or further adjusting any one of them to the value most unfavorable to the 10 μg strategy, as long as the efficacy of 3-dose 10 μg series was slightly higher than that of 3-dose 5 μg series, the 10 μg strategy would be cost-effective, highly cost-effective, or even cost-saving. Even under the most pessimistic scenario, i.e. all the other parameters, but the discount rate, at the values most unfavorable to the 10 μg strategy, the 10 μg strategy would be cost-effective if the efficacy difference reached higher than 1.23 percentage point.

CONCLUSION

For newborn hepatitis B vaccination in China, the 10 μg strategy should be cost-effective, even more possibly highly cost-effective or cost-saving compared with the current 5 μg strategy. The doses of 10 μg should be considered to replace the doses of 5 μg in newborn hepatitis B vaccination in China.

Creating impact with operations research in health: making room for practice in academia

Operations research (OR)-based analyses have the potential to improve decision making for many important, real-world health care problems. However, junior scholars often avoid working on practical applications in health because promotion and tenure processes tend to value theoretical studies more highly than applied studies. This paper discusses the author's experiences in using OR to inform and influence decisions in health and provides a blueprint for junior researchers who wish to find success by taking a similar path. This involves selecting good problems to study, forming productive collaborations with domain experts, developing appropriate models, identifying the most salient results from an analysis, and effectively disseminating findings to decision makers. The paper then suggests how journals, funding agencies, and senior academics can encourage such work by taking a broader and more informed view of the potential role and contributions of OR to solving health care problems. Making room in academia for the application of OR in health follows in the tradition begun by the founders of operations research: to work on important real-world problems where operations research can contribute to better decision making.

Efficacy of neonatal HBV vaccination on liver cancer and other liver diseases over 30-year follow-up of the Qidong hepatitis B intervention study: a cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Neonatal hepatitis B vaccination has been implemented worldwide to prevent hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections. Its long-term protective efficacy on primary liver cancer (PLC) and other liver diseases has not been fully examined.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The Qidong Hepatitis B Intervention Study, a population-based, cluster randomized, controlled trial between 1985 and 1990 in Qidong, China, included 39,292 newborns who were randomly assigned to the vaccination group in which 38,366 participants completed the HBV vaccination series and 34,441 newborns who were randomly assigned to the control group in which the participants received neither a vaccine nor a placebo. However, 23,368 (67.8%) participants in the control group received catch-up vaccination at age 10-14 years. By December 2013, a total of 3,895 (10.2%) in the vaccination group and 3,898 (11.3%) in the control group were lost to follow-up. Information on PLC incidence and liver disease mortality were collected through linkage of all remaining cohort members to a well-established population-based tumor registry until December 31, 2013. Two cross-sectional surveys on HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence were conducted in 1996-2000 and 2008-2012. The participation rates of the two surveys were 57.5% (21,770) and 50.7% (17,204) in the vaccination group and 36.3% (12,184) and 58.6% (17,395) in the control group, respectively. Using intention-to-treat analysis, we found that the incidence rate of PLC and the mortality rates of severe end-stage liver diseases and infant fulminant hepatitis were significantly lower in the vaccination group than the control group with efficacies of 84% (95% CI 23%-97%), 70% (95% CI 15%-89%), and 69% (95% CI 34%-85%), respectively. The estimated efficacy of catch-up vaccination on HBsAg seroprevalence in early adulthood was 21% (95% CI 10%-30%), substantially weaker than that of the neonatal vaccination (72%, 95% CI 68%-75%). Receiving a booster at age 10-14 years decreased HBsAg seroprevalence if participants were born to HBsAg-positive mothers (hazard ratio [HR]  = 0.68, 95% CI 0.47-0.97). Limitations to consider in interpreting the study results include the small number of individuals with PLC, participants lost to follow-up, and the large proportion of participants who did not provide serum samples at follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Neonatal HBV vaccination was found to significantly decrease HBsAg seroprevalence in childhood through young adulthood and subsequently reduce the risk of PLC and other liver diseases in young adults in rural China. The findings underscore the importance of neonatal HBV vaccination. Our results also suggest that an adolescence booster should be considered in individuals born to HBsAg-positive mothers and who have completed the HBV neonatal vaccination series. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Key outcomes and addressing remaining challenges--perspectives from a final evaluation of the China GAVI project

During the China GAVI project, implemented between 2002 and 2010, more than 25 million children received hepatitis B vaccine with the support of project, and the vaccine proved to be safe and effective. With careful consideration for project savings, China and GAVI continually adjusted the budget, additionally allowing the project to spend operational funds to support demonstration projects to improve timely birth dose (TBD), conduct training of EPI staff, and to monitor the project impact. Results from the final evaluation indicated the achievement of key outcomes. As a result of government co-investment, human resources at county level engaged in hepatitis B vaccination increased from 29 per county on average in 2002 to 66 in 2009. All project counties funded by the GAVI project use auto-disable syringes for hepatitis B vaccination and other vaccines. Surveyed hepatitis B vaccine coverage increased from 71% in 2002 to 93% in 2009 among infants. The HBsAg prevalence declined from 9.67% in 1992 to 0.96% in 2006 among children under 5 years of age. However, several important issues remain: (1) China still accounts for the largest annual number of perinatal HBV infections (estimated 84,121) in the WHO WPR region; (2) China still lacks a clear national policy for safe injection of vaccines; (3) vaccination of high risk adults and protection of health care workers are still not implemented; (4) hepatitis B surveillance needs to be refined to more accurately monitor acute hepatitis B; and (5) a program for treatment of persons with chronic HBV infection is needed. Recommendations for future hepatitis B control include: using the lessons learned from the China GAVI project for future introductions of new vaccines; addressing unmet needs with a second generation hepatitis B program to reach every infant, including screening mothers, and providing HBIG for infants born to HBsAg positive mothers; expanding vaccination to high risk adults; addressing remaining unsafe injection issues; and improving monitoring of acute hepatitis B. This paper describes findings and discusses perspectives from a final project evaluation, a national stratified validated cross-sectional survey done in October 2010.

Evaluation of the impact of hepatitis B vaccination in adults in Jiangsu province, China

Hepatitis B immunization programs for newborns, children, and adolescents in China have shown remarkable results. To establish whether there would be any benefit in extending the program to cover older individuals, we examined both the epidemiology of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and the coverage of hepatitis B vaccinations among adults born before routine vaccinations were implemented. We then evaluated the impact of hepatitis B vaccination in adults aged 20-59 years. A large-scale cross-sectional epidemiological survey of HBV infection was performed in the province of Jiangsu, south-east China, between September 2009 and March 2010. A total of 86,732 adults aged 20-59 years were included, of which 8,615 (9.9%, 95% CI = 9.7-10.1%) were HBsAg sero-positive. Self-reported vaccination status suggested that the coverage was approximately 23.7% (95% CI = 23.4-24.0%). It was shown that higher HBV vaccination coverage was associated with a lower rate of HBsAg seropositivity among adults. There was a negative correlation between hepatitis B vaccination coverage and HBsAg prevalence (correlation coefficient = -0.805, p = 0.016), which might demonstrate the combined effects of vaccination and pre-vaccination HBsAg screening. In the unvaccinated group, the HBsAg-positive rate had an obvious upward trend with age growing among 20-39 year-olds (Trend χ2 = 22.605, P<0.001), while the vaccinated group showed no such trend (Trend χ2 = 3.462, P = 0.063). Overall, hepatitis B vaccination in adults might reduce the rate of HBsAg positivity. Therefore, routine immunization of adults aged 20-39 years should be seriously considered.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a hepatitis B vaccination catch-up program among children in Shandong Province, China

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to estimate long-term cost‑effectiveness of a hepatitis B vaccination catch-up program among children born between 1994 and 2001 (when they were 8‑15 y old) in Shandong province, China, to provide information for nationwide evaluation and future policy making.

METHODS

We determined the cost-effectiveness of the catch-up program compared with the status quo (no catch-up program). We combined a Decision Tree model and a Markov model to simulate vaccination and clinical progression after hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Parameters in the models were from the literature, a field survey, program files, and the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (NNDRS). The incremental cost‑effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to compare the 2 alternative strategies. One-way sensitivity analysis, 2-way sensitivity analysis, and probability sensitivity analysis were used to assess parameter uncertainties.

RESULTS

The catch-up program was dominant compared with the status quo. Using a total of 5.53 million doses of vaccines, the catch-up program could prevent 21,865 cases of symptomatic acute hepatitis B, 3,088 carrier states with positive hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), and 812 deaths due to HBV infection. The catch-up program could add 28,888 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and save $192.01 million in the targeted population in the future. The models were robust, considering parameter uncertainties.

CONCLUSION

The catch-up program in Shandong province among children born between 1994 and 2001 was 'very cost-saving.' It could save life years and reduce total future costs. Our study supported the desirability and impact of such a catch-up program throughout China.

Too much of a good thing? When to stop catch-up vaccination

During the 20th century, deaths from a range of serious infectious diseases decreased dramatically due to the development of safe and effective vaccines. However, infant immunization coverage has increased only marginally since the 1960s, and many people remain susceptible to vaccine-preventable diseases. "Catch-up vaccination" for age groups beyond infancy can be an attractive and effective means of immunizing people who were missed earlier. However, as newborn vaccination rates increase, catch-up vaccination becomes less attractive: the number of susceptible people decreases, so the cost to find and vaccinate each unvaccinated person may increase; in addition, the number of infected individuals decreases, so each unvaccinated person faces a lower risk of infection. This article presents a general framework for determining the optimal time to discontinue a catch-up vaccination program. We use a cost-effectiveness framework: we consider the cost per quality-adjusted life year gained of catch-up vaccination efforts as a function of newborn immunization rates over time and consequent disease prevalence and incidence. We illustrate our results with the example of hepatitis B catch-up vaccination in China. We contrast results from a dynamic modeling approach with an approach that ignores the impact of vaccination on future disease incidence. The latter approach is likely to be simpler for decision makers to understand and implement because of lower data requirements.

Economic evaluation of universal newborn hepatitis B vaccination in China

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of universal newborn hepatitis B vaccination in China, an area of high endemicity.

METHOD

A decision tree was used to describe perinatal hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission, early infection and impact of vaccination. A Markov model based on 1-year cycles was used to simulate these impacts for the lifetime of a cohort of 10,000,000 infants born in 2002 in China. We compared both cost and health outcomes for two strategies: universal newborn vaccination comprising a timely birth dose (HepB1) with a three-dose vaccination (HepB3) compared with no vaccination. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses using Monte Carlo simulations were performed to test parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

Over the cohort's lifetime, 79,966 chronic infections, 37,553 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 130,796 HBV related deaths would be prevented by universal infant vaccination. The prevalence of HBV infection is reduced by 76%. Over 743,000 life-years and 620,000 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) would be gained and there would be monetary benefits of more than 1 billion US dollars in medical care costs and lost productivity avoided.

CONCLUSION

The newborn vaccination programme for Hepatitis B in China both gains QALYs and saves medical care costs. It is important to ensure that timely and comprehensive vaccination programmes continue.

Prevention of oncological diseases: primary and secondary prevention

Cancer is the leading cause of death worldwide. Because there is presently no cure for cancer, the best strategy to combat oncological diseases is through early detection and prevention. The methods currently available are vaccines to target specific viruses (primary prevention), in combination with screening (secondary prevention), use of biomarkers, and administration of adjuvant therapy (tertiary prevention). Modifiable lifestyle-related risk factors are also important in cancer prevention. Vaccination has been proven to be highly effective against targeted diseases leading to the development of cancer, particularly if the vaccination is given in the early years of life. The need for regular screening (for breast cancer, cervical cancer, etc.) should not be neglected and should be followed to detect unusual changes or abnormalities in the body. With discoveries as targeted therapies, adjuvant treatment becomes a secure component of tertiary prevention in the betterment of disease management. The discovery of biomarkers and subsequent targeted therapies has led to personalized medicine as the current trend in cancer care.

Cost-effectiveness and economic benefits of vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Public health interventions that prevent mortality and morbidity have greatly increased over the past decade. Immunization is one of these preventive interventions, with a potential to bring economic benefits beyond just health benefits. While vaccines are considered to be a cost-effective public health intervention, implementation has become increasingly challenging. As vaccine costs rise and competing priorities increase, economic evidence is likely to play an increasingly important role in vaccination decisions.

METHODS

To assist policy decisions today and potential investments in the future, we provide a systematic review of the literature on the cost-effectiveness and economic benefits of vaccines in low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2010. The review identified 108 relevant articles from 51 countries spanning 23 vaccines from three major electronic databases (Pubmed, Embase and Econlit).

RESULTS

Among the 44 articles that reported costs per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, vaccines cost less than or equal to $100 per DALY averted in 23 articles (52%). Vaccines cost less than $500 per DALY averted in 34 articles (77%), and less than $1000 per DALY averted in 38 articles (86%) in one of the scenarios. 24 articles (22%) examined broad level economic benefits of vaccines such as greater future wage-earning capacity and cost savings from averting disease outbreaks. 60 articles (56%) gathered data from a primary source. There were little data on long-term and societal economic benefits such as morbidity-related productivity gains, averting catastrophic health expenditures, growth in gross domestic product (GDP), and economic implications of demographic changes resulting from vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

This review documents the available evidence and shows that vaccination in low- and middle-income countries brings important economic benefits. The cost-effectiveness studies reviewed suggest to policy makers that vaccines are an efficient investment. This review further highlights key gaps in the available literature that would benefit from additional research, especially in the area of evaluating the broader economic benefits of vaccination in the developing world.

Prevalence of hepatitis B virus infection in a highly endemic area of southern China after catch-up immunization

The Chinese national goals for control of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection were to achieve a prevalence of HBsAg below 7% for the entire population, and 1% for children under 5-year old, by 2010. To determine whether Guangxi, a multi-minority province with a low socio-economic status and a very high prevalence of HBV, achieved this goal, a seroepidemiological survey of HBV infection was carried out using stratified, random cluster sampling. The results show that the overall prevalence of HBsAg is 9.16% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 8.32-10%]. The prevalence in males (10.96%, 95% CI = 9.64-12.28%) is significantly higher than in females (7.71%, 95% CI = 6.64-8.78%; χ(2) = 10.5923, P < 0.05). The prevalence in children under 5-year old is 3.62% (95% CI = 0.60-6.64%) and increases with age. The prevalence of HBsAg in non-immunized individuals is significantly higher than in those immunized completely, although not within 24 hr of birth (χ(2) = 31.426, P < 0.05); a significant difference was found in those below the age of 20 years but not in older persons. Gender, age, immunization history, and familial HBsAg carriers are risk factors for infection. In conclusion, this study indicates that Guangxi has not reached the goal for the control of HBV infection. Catch-up HBV immunization may not protect adults effectively against infection in highly endemic regions.

Liver disease in Viet Nam: screening, surveillance, management and education: a 5-year plan and call to action

Despite a high prevalence of liver disease in Viet Nam, there has been no nationwide approach to the disease and no systematic screening of at-risk individuals. Risk factors include chronic hepatitis B (estimated prevalence of 12%), chronic hepatitis C (at least 2% prevalence), and heavy consumption of alcohol among men. This combination of factors has resulted in liver cancer being the most common cause of cancer death in Viet Nam. There is a general lack of understanding by both the general public and health-care providers about the major risk to health that liver disease represents. We report here the initial steps taken as part of a comprehensive approach to liver disease that will ultimately include nationwide education for health-care providers, health educators, and the public; expansion of nationwide screening for hepatitis B and C followed by hepatitis B virus vaccination or treatment of chronic hepatitis B and/or hepatitis C; education about alcoholic liver disease; long-term surveillance for liver cancer; reduction of infection transmission related to medical, commercial, and personal re-use of contaminated needles, syringes, sharp instruments, razors, and inadequately sterilized medical equipment; and ongoing collection and analysis of data about the prevalence of all forms of liver disease and the results of the expanded screening, vaccination, and treatment programs. We report the beginning results of our pilot hepatitis B screening program. We believe that this comprehensive nationwide approach could substantially reduce the morbidity and mortality from liver disease and greatly lessen the burden in terms of both lives lost and health-care costs.

Cost effectiveness of screening immigrants for hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection among the immigrants of North America ranges from 2 to 15%, among whom 40% develop advanced liver disease. Screening for hepatitis B surface antigen is not recommended for immigrants.

AIMS

The objective of this study is to estimate the health and economic effects of screening strategies for CHB among immigrants.

METHODS

We used the Markov model to examine the cost-effectiveness of three screening strategies: (i) 'No screening'; (ii) 'Screen and Treat' and (iii) 'Screen, Treat and Vaccinate' for 20-65 years old individuals who were born abroad but are currently living in Canada. Model data were obtained from the published literature. We measured predicted hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related deaths, costs (2008 Canadian Dollars), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

Our results show that screening all immigrants will prevent 59 HBV-related deaths per 10, 000 persons screened over the lifetime of the cohort. Screening was associated with an increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy (0.024 QALYs) and cost ($1665) per person with an ICER of $69, 209/QALY gained compared with 'No screening'. The 'Screen, Treat and Vaccinate' costs an additional $81, generates an additional 0.000022 QALYs per person, with an ICER of $3, 648,123/QALY compared with the 'Screen and Treat'. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the 'Screen and Treat' is likely to be moderately cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

We show that a selective hepatitis B screening programme targeted at all immigrants in Canada is likely to be moderately cost-effective. Identification of silent CHB infection with the offer of treatment when appropriate can extend the lives of immigrants at reasonable cost.

A model program for hepatitis B vaccination and education of schoolchildren in rural China

OBJECTIVES

Incomplete hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccine coverage and poor HBV-related knowledge in China leave millions of children unprotected from this life-threatening infection. To address these gaps, a pilot program for HBV education and vaccination was launched in rural China.

METHODS

In 2006, public and private organizations in the US and China collaborated to provide HBV education and vaccination to 55,000 school-age children in the remote, highly HBV-endemic area of Qinghai Province. The impact of the educational program on HBV-related knowledge was evaluated among more than 2,800 elementary school students.

RESULTS

Between September 2006 and March 2007, the three-shot hepatitis B vaccine series was administered to 54,680 students, with a completion rate of 99.4%. From low pre-existing knowledge levels, classroom educational sessions statistically significantly increased knowledge about HBV risks, symptoms, transmission, and prevention.

CONCLUSIONS

This program offers an effective and sustainable model for HBV catch-up vaccination and education that can be replicated throughout China, as well as in other underserved HBV-endemic regions, as a strategy to reduce chronic HBV infection, liver failure, and liver cancer.