Prediction and prevention of schizophrenia: what has been achieved and where to go next?

Sensitivity of the familial high-risk approach for the prediction of future psychosis: a total population study

Children who have a parent with a psychotic disorder present an increased risk of developing psychosis. It is unclear to date, however, what proportion of all psychosis cases in the population are captured by a familial high-risk for psychosis (FHR-P) approach. This is essential information for prevention research and health service planning, as it tells us the total proportion of psychosis cases that this high-risk approach would prevent if an effective intervention were developed. Through a prospective cohort study including all individuals born in Finland between January 1, 1987 and December 31, 1992, we examined the absolute risk and total proportion of psychosis cases captured by FHR-P and by a transdiagnostic familial risk approach (TDFR-P) based on parental inpatient hospitalization for any mental disorder. Outcomes of non-affective psychosis (ICD-10: F20-F29) and schizophrenia (ICD-10: F20) were identified in the index children up to December 31, 2016. Of the index children (N=368,937), 1.5% (N=5,544) met FHR-P criteria and 10.3% (N=38,040) met TDFR-P criteria. By the study endpoint, 1.9% (N=6,966) of the index children had been diagnosed with non-affective psychosis and 0.5% (N=1,846) with schizophrenia. In terms of sensitivity, of all non-affective psychosis cases in the index children, 5.2% (N=355) were captured by FHR-P and 20.6% (N=1,413) by TDFR-P approaches. The absolute risk of non-affective psychosis was 6.4% in those with FHR-P, and 3.7% in those with TDFR-P. There was notable variation in the sensitivity and total proportion of FHR-P and TDFR-P cases captured based on the age at which FHR-P/TDFR-P were determined. The absolute risk for psychosis, however, was relatively time invariant. These metrics are essential to inform intervention strategies for psychosis risk requiring pragmatic decision-making.

Enhancing schizophrenia phenotype prediction from genotype data through knowledge-driven deep neural network models

This article explores deep learning model design, drawing inspiration from the omnigenic model and genetic heterogeneity concepts, to improve schizophrenia prediction using genotype data. It introduces an innovative three-step approach leveraging neural networks' capabilities to efficiently handle genetic interactions. A locally connected network initially routes input data from variants to their corresponding genes. The second step employs an Encoder-Decoder to capture relationships among identified genes. The final model integrates knowledge from the first two and incorporates a parallel component to consider the effects of additional genes. This expansion enhances prediction scores by considering a larger number of genes. Trained models achieved an average AUC of 0.83, surpassing other genotype-trained models and matching gene expression dataset-based approaches. Additionally, tests on held-out sets reported an average sensitivity of 0.72 and an accuracy of 0.76, aligning with schizophrenia heritability predictions. Moreover, the study addresses genetic heterogeneity challenges by considering diverse population subsets.

Identification of youth at clinical high-risk for psychosis: A community-based study from India

AIM

A two-stage process, wherein self-report screening precedes the structured interview, is suggested for identifying individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) in community samples. Aim of this study was to screen a community youth sample from India for CHR-P using the two-stage method. Specific objectives were to assess concordant validity of the self-report measure and predictive validity of the two-stage method.

METHODS

Based on probability sampling, 2025 youth aged 15-24 years were recruited from one rural and one urban area of Telangana, a Telugu-speaking state in India. Telugu version of the PRIME Screen-Revised (PS-R) and structured interview for psychosis-risk syndromes (SIPS) were used. CHR-P positive and negative cohorts were followed-up for transition to psychosis at 3-monthly intervals.

RESULTS

One hundred ten individuals screened positive on PS-R. SIPS conducted on 67 out of 110 individuals confirmed 62 (92.54%) to be CHR-P positive. PS-R showed 98.41% sensitivity and 90.74% specificity. Among CHR-P positive, three participants transitioned to psychosis in 15 months. The hazard ratio for psychosis transition was 11.4.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening accuracy of PS-R in the community youth sample in Telangana is optimum. The hazard ratio for psychosis transition in the community identified CHR-P indicates good predictive validity for the two-stage method.

Clinical and Sociodemographic Correlations with Neurological Soft Signs in Hospitalized Patients with Schizophrenia: A Preliminary Longitudinal Study

Schizophrenia is a severe, chronic neuropsychiatric disorder characterized by symptoms that profoundly impact behavior, cognition, perception, and emotions, leading to a reduced quality of life and physical impairment. Given the complexity of schizophrenia, there is a pressing need for clinical markers and tools to predict its course, enhance disease staging, facilitate early intervention, improve differential diagnosis, and tailor individualized treatment approaches. Previous studies focused on the relationship between neurological soft signs (NSS) and factors such as age, illness duration, and symptomatology, indicating NSS as state markers improving in parallel with psychotic symptom remission or predicting treatment resistance. However, there is a lack of consensus on NSS assessment tools, hindering routine clinical monitoring despite diagnostic and prognostic potential. The present longitudinal study involved 81 psychiatric inpatients diagnosed with schizophrenia. Patients were assessed at three time points: baseline, 1 month, and 6 months. The examination included the use of scales to evaluate psychotic and neurological symptoms, as well as the identification of adverse extrapyramidal reactions caused by neuroleptic treatment. The progression of NSS was correlated to both the symptomatology and the sociodemographic data of the patients. The main findings from the present investigation revealed a statistical correlation between NSS and psychopathological symptoms, especially with negative symptoms of schizophrenia. However, it is important to note that neuroleptic side effects only had a limited impact on NSS. Therefore, instead of being linked to extrapyramidal symptoms caused by neuroleptics, NSS appears to be more frequently related with symptoms of schizophrenia. Our findings provide further support for their strong association with the course of schizophrenia, independent of treatment side effects, thus emphasizing their potential as reliable assessment tools in both research and clinical settings.

Mismatch negativity generation in subjects at risk for psychosis: source analysis is more sensitive than surface electrodes in risk prediction

Background

Deficits of mismatch negativity (MMN) in patients with schizophrenia have been demonstrated many times and there is growing evidence that alterations of MMN already exist in individuals at risk for psychosis. The present study examines differences in MMN between subjects fulfilling ultra-high risk (UHR) or only basic symptoms criteria and it addresses the question, if MMN source analysis can improve prediction of transition to psychosis.

Methods

The MMN to duration, frequency, and intensity deviants was recorded in 50 healthy controls and 161 individuals at risk for psychosis classified into three subgroups: only basic symptoms (n = 74), only ultra-high risk (n = 13) and persons who fulfill both risk criteria (n = 74). Based on a three-source model of MMN generation, we conducted an MMN source analysis and compared the amplitudes of surface electrodes and sources among the three groups.

Results

Significant differences in MMN generation among the four groups were revealed at surface electrodes Cz and C4 (p < 0.05) and at the frontal source (p < 0.001) for duration deviant stimuli. The 15 subjects from the risk groups who subsequently developed a manifest psychosis had a significantly lower MMN amplitude at frontal source (p = 0.019) without showing significant differences at surface electrodes. Low activity at frontal MMN source increased the risk of transition to manifest disease by the factor 3.12 in UHR subjects.

Conclusion

MMN activity differed significantly between subjects presenting only basic symptoms and subjects which additionally meet UHR criteria. The largest differences between groups as well as between individuals with and without transition were observed at the frontal source. The present results suggest that source analysis is more sensitive than surface electrodes in psychosis risk prediction by MMN.

Sex-specific susceptibility to psychotic-like states provoked by prenatal THC exposure: Reversal by pregnenolone

Sociocultural attitudes towards cannabis legalization contribute to the common misconception that it is a relatively safe drug and its use during pregnancy poses no risk to the fetus. However, longitudinal studies demonstrate that maternal cannabis exposure results in adverse outcomes in the offspring, with a heightened risk for developing psychopathology. One of the most reported psychiatric outcomes is the proneness to psychotic-like experiences during childhood. How exposure to cannabis during gestation increases psychosis susceptibility in children and adolescents remains elusive. Preclinical research has indicated that in utero exposure to the major psychoactive component of cannabis, delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), deranges brain developmental trajectories towards vulnerable psychotic-like endophenotypes later in life. Here, we present how prenatal THC exposure (PCE) deregulates mesolimbic dopamine development predisposing the offspring to schizophrenia-relevant phenotypes, exclusively when exposed to environmental challenges, such as stress or THC. Detrimental effects of PCE are sex-specific because female offspring do not display psychotic-like outcomes upon exposure to these challenges. Moreover, we present how pregnenolone, a neurosteroid that showed beneficial properties on the effects elicited by cannabis intoxication, normalizes mesolimbic dopamine function and rescues psychotic-like phenotypes. We, therefore, suggest this neurosteroid as a safe "disease-modifying" aid to prevent the onset of psychoses in vulnerable individuals. Our findings corroborate clinical evidence and highlight the relevance of early diagnostic screening and preventative strategies for young individuals at risk for mental diseases, such as male PCE offspring.

The Actigraphy-Based Identification of Premorbid Latent Liability of Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder

(1) Background and Goal: Several studies have investigated the association of sleep, diurnal patterns, and circadian rhythms with the presence and with the risk states of mental illnesses such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. The goal of our study was to examine actigraphic measures to identify features that can be extracted from them so that a machine learning model can detect premorbid latent liabilities for schizotypy and bipolarity. (2) Methods: Our team developed a small wrist-worn measurement device that collects and identifies actigraphic data based on an accelerometer. The sensors were used by carefully selected healthy participants who were divided into three groups: Control Group (C), Cyclothymia Factor Group (CFG), and Positive Schizotypy Factor Group (PSF). From the data they collected, our team performed data cleaning operations and then used the extracted metrics to generate the feature combinations deemed most effective, along with three machine learning algorithms for categorization. (3) Results: By conducting the training, we were able to identify a set of mildly correlated traits and their order of importance based on the Shapley value that had the greatest impact on the detection of bipolarity and schizotypy according to the logistic regression, Light Gradient Boost, and Random Forest algorithms. (4) Conclusions: These results were successfully compared to the results of other researchers; we had a similar differentiation in features used by others, and successfully developed new ones that might be a good complement for further research. In the future, identifying these traits may help us identify people at risk from mental disorders early in a cost-effective, automated way.

Multidimensional analysis of adult patients’ care trajectories before a first diagnosis of schizophrenia

For patients at high-risk for developing schizophrenia, a delayed diagnosis could be affected, among many reasons, by their patterns of healthcare use. This study aims to describe and generate a typology of patients’ care trajectories (CTs) in the 2 years preceding a first diagnosis of schizophrenia, over a medico-administrative database of 3712 adults with a first diagnosis between April 2014 and March 2015 in Quebec, Canada. This study applied a multidimensional approach of State Sequence Analysis, considering together sequences of patients’ diagnoses, care settings and care providers. Five types of distinct CTs have emerged from this data-driven analysis: The type 1, shared by 77.6% of patients, predominantly younger men, shows that this group sought little healthcare, among which 17.5% had no healthcare contact for mental disorders. These individuals might benefit from improved promotion and prevention of mental healthcare at the community level. The types 2, 3 and 4, with higher occurrence of mental disorder diagnoses, represent together 19.5% of the study cohort, mostly middle-aged and women. These CTs, although displaying roughly similar profiles of mental disorders, revealed very dissimilar sequences and levels of care providers encounters, primary and specialized care use, and hospitalizations. Surprisingly, patients of these CTs had few consultations with general practitioners. An increased attentiveness for middle-aged patients and women with high healthcare use for mental disorders could help to reduce delayed diagnosis of schizophrenia. This calls for further consideration of healthcare services for severe mental illness beyond those offered to young adults.

Neurobiologically Based Stratification of Recent-Onset Depression and Psychosis: Identification of Two Distinct Transdiagnostic Phenotypes

BACKGROUND

Identifying neurobiologically based transdiagnostic categories of depression and psychosis may elucidate heterogeneity and provide better candidates for predictive modeling. We aimed to identify clusters across patients with recent-onset depression (ROD) and recent-onset psychosis (ROP) based on structural neuroimaging data. We hypothesized that these transdiagnostic clusters would identify patients with poor outcome and allow more accurate prediction of symptomatic remission than traditional diagnostic structures.

METHODS

HYDRA (Heterogeneity through Discriminant Analysis) was trained on whole-brain volumetric measures from 577 participants from the discovery sample of the multisite PRONIA study to identify neurobiologically driven clusters, which were then externally validated in the PRONIA replication sample (n = 404) and three datasets of chronic samples (Centre for Biomedical Research Excellence, n = 146; Mind Clinical Imaging Consortium, n = 202; Munich, n = 470).

RESULTS

The optimal clustering solution was two transdiagnostic clusters (cluster 1: n = 153, 67 ROP, 86 ROD; cluster 2: n = 149, 88 ROP, 61 ROD; adjusted Rand index = 0.618). The two clusters contained both patients with ROP and patients with ROD. One cluster had widespread gray matter volume deficits and more positive, negative, and functional deficits (impaired cluster), and one cluster revealed a more preserved neuroanatomical signature and more core depressive symptomatology (preserved cluster). The clustering solution was internally and externally validated and assessed for clinical utility in predicting 9-month symptomatic remission, outperforming traditional diagnostic structures.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified two transdiagnostic neuroanatomically informed clusters that are clinically and biologically distinct, challenging current diagnostic boundaries in recent-onset mental health disorders. These results may aid understanding of the etiology of poor outcome patients transdiagnostically and improve development of stratified treatments.

Unrecognized schizophrenia spectrum and other mental disorders in youth disconnected from education and work-life

BACKGROUND

Schizophrenia spectrum disorders typically emerge during adolescence or early adulthood. Often the symptomatology is vague initially, while a marked functional decline and social withdrawal can be seen. A group of young people with such social and functional impairments is the so-called "Not in Education, Employment or Training" (NEET), i.e., a youth population that is socially disconnected from education and work-life. Despite the NEET group's disconnection from important parts of social life and a rising concern of an intersection with mental health problems, a psychopathological perspective on the problems experienced by this group remains underexplored.

AIM

To examine a NEET sample for psychopathology and if relevant allocate psychiatric diagnoses.

METHODS

We performed an interview study comprising 40 participants from youth job-counseling services. All underwent a comprehensive psychiatric evaluation. Inclusion criteria were 18-29 years of age and a welfare benefit history of minimum 6 months.

RESULTS

Diagnostic criteria of any mental disorder were fulfilled by 95% of the sample; half of whom were diagnosed with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. The participants with schizophrenia spectrum disorders had lower global functioning, were more often in contact with the mental health services and had higher PANSS and Examination of Anomalous Self-Experiences (EASE) scores compared to those with non-schizophrenia spectrum disorders. The participants fulfilling the criteria for schizophrenia spectrum disorders had lower EASE and PANSS scores than usually reported in the literature, suggesting more "symptom-poor" presentations.

CONCLUSION

Psychiatric illness and particularly schizophrenia spectrum disorders affecting social interaction and the ability to take part in educational and work-life were grossly overrepresented in the NEET sample. Our findings suggest that pronounced social disconnection in youth in and of itself should lead to suspect the presence of a severe mental disorder.

Across the continuum: Associations between (fluctuations in) momentary self-esteem and psychotic experiences

OBJECTIVE

Low self-esteem has been suggested as a putative mechanism in the development and maintenance of psychosis. Uncertainty still exists about how unstable self-esteem relates to psychotic experiences. The present study examines the potential (temporal) associations between momentary self-esteem, fluctuations in self-esteem, and psychotic experiences in daily life.

METHODS

Experience sampling data were collected from 46 individuals presenting with an at-risk mental state (ARMS), 51 individuals with first-episode psychosis (FEP), and 53 controls, to investigate associations between (fluctuations in) self-esteem and psychotic experiences within and across FEP, ARMS, and controls, using linear mixed models.

RESULTS

In all three groups we found that lower momentary self-esteem was associated with a greater intensity of psychotic experiences (adj. β_FEP = -0.15, 95% CI -0.20 to -0.10, p = 0.000; adj. β_ARMS = -0.20, 95% CI -0.26 to -0.15, p = 0.000; adj. β_controls = -0.12, 95% CI -0.17 to -0.07, p = 0.000). Variability in momentary self-esteem was associated with a greater intensity of psychotic experiences only in ARMS (adj. β_ARMS = 0.08, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.11, p = 0.000) and controls (adj. β_controls = 0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.08, p = 0.023). For instability this association held only in controls (adj. β_controls = 0.03, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.05, p = 0.020). Furthermore, findings may suggest a reciprocal temporal association between self-esteem and psychotic experiences.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that self-esteem may be an important mechanism targetable by ecological momentary interventions to reduce the intensity of psychotic experiences and potentially prevent illness progression at an early stage.

A systematic review of the prognostic value of motor abnormalities on clinical outcome in psychosis

Schizophrenia spectrum disorders have heterogeneous outcomes and currently no marker predicts the course of illness. Motor abnormalities (MAs) are inherent to psychosis, the risk of psychosis, symptom severity, and brain alterations. However, the prognostic value of MAs is still unresolved. Here, we provide a systematic review of longitudinal studies on the prognostic role of MAs spanning individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR), patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP), and chronic schizophrenia. We included 68 studies for a total of 23,630 subjects that assessed neurological soft signs (NSS), hypo- or hyperkinetic movement disorders and/or catatonia as a prognostic factor on clinical and functional outcomes. We found increased levels of MAs, in particular NSS, parkinsonism, and dyskinesia, were related to deteriorating symptomatic and poor functional outcome over time. Collectively, the findings emphasize the clinical, prognostic and scientific relevance of MA assessment and detection in individuals with or at risk of psychosis. In the future, instrumental measures of MA are expected to further augment detection, early intervention and treatment strategies in psychosis.

Diagnosis of Schizophrenia Based on Deep Learning Using fMRI

Schizophrenia is a brain disease that frequently occurs in young people. Early diagnosis and treatment can reduce family burdens and reduce social costs. There is no objective evaluation index for schizophrenia. In order to improve the classification effect of traditional classification methods on magnetic resonance data, a method of classification of functional magnetic resonance imaging data is proposed in conjunction with the convolutional neural network algorithm. We take functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data for schizophrenia as an example, to extract effective time series from preprocessed fMRI data, and perform correlation analysis on regions of interest, using transfer learning and VGG16 net, and the functional connection between schizophrenia and healthy controls is classified. Experimental results show that the classification accuracy of fMRI based on VGG16 is up to 84.3%. On the one hand, it can improve the early diagnosis of schizophrenia, and on the other hand, it can solve the classification problem of small samples and high-dimensional data and effectively improve the generalization ability of deep learning models.

Nanotechnology Approaches for Enhanced CNS Drug Delivery in the Management of Schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is a neuropsychiatric disorder mainly affecting the central nervous system, presented with auditory and visual hallucinations, delusion and withdrawal from society. Abnormal dopamine levels mainly characterise the disease; various theories of neurotransmitters explain the pathophysiology of the disease. The current therapeutic approach deals with the systemic administration of drugs other than the enteral route, altering the neurotransmitter levels within the brain and providing symptomatic relief. Fluid biomarkers help in the early detection of the disease, which would improve the therapeutic efficacy. However, the major challenge faced in CNS drug delivery is the blood-brain barrier. Nanotherapeutic approaches may overcome these limitations, which will improve safety, efficacy, and targeted drug delivery. This review article addresses the main challenges faced in CNS drug delivery and the significance of current therapeutic strategies and nanotherapeutic approaches for a better understanding and enhanced drug delivery to the brain, which improve the quality of life of schizophrenia patients.

Assessing self-reported clinical high risk symptoms: The psychometric properties of the polish version of the prodromal questionnaire-brief and a proposal for an alternative approach to scoring

BACKGROUND

Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) might occur in the general population as low-risk individual differences or prodromal features, requiring quick detection and early intervention. The aims of this study were to conduct a mini-systematic review of the prognostic abilities of the Prodromal Questionnaire-Brief (PQ-B), describe the PLEs distribution for the first time in a Polish population, assess PQ-B reliability and propose an innovative scoring approach based on cluster analysis.

METHODS

Five hundred and twenty eight (334 female) adult volunteers underwent screening with the PQ-B, 49% also underwent the early psychosis screening test PRIME, to verify the tests' psychometric properties, to compare the prognostic accuracy of the PQ-B to the more restrictive PRIME, and to the detected types of possible diagnosis in the general population.

RESULTS

Almost 70% of respondents met the prognostic criteria of the PQ-B while only 30.6% met the PRIME criteria. Both tests proved reliable (α > .835) and valid (rho >.710; P < .001). A cluster analysis identified three different sub-groups detected with the PQ-B: healthy individuals without PLE; healthy with low-distressing PLEs; and possibly prodromal subjects reporting less frequent but more distressing PLEs and no worries about their own mental state. Also in systematic reviews, authors of different adaptations have observed that the PQ-B has too low specificity and postulated the need for higher cut-offs.

CONCLUSION

Study provides evidence of good reliability and sensitivity of the PQ-B in assessing PLEs among the general population, but emphasizes that straightforward quantitative scoring criteria are still unclear. A more qualitative approach might be useful for differentiating true prodromal subjects from clinically low-risk individual differences.

Pre-pulse inhibition deficits in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIM

Neurophysiological markers of schizophrenia may help identify individuals who are at an increased risk of developing psychosis. As an operational measure of sensorimotor gating, pre-pulse inhibition (PPI) deficit has been investigated in clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals. In this study, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that investigated PPI in CHR individuals.

METHODS

Relevant studies published as of July 2019 were retrieved from the PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, PscyINFO, EBSCO and Chinese databases. PPI was evaluated by calculating the standard mean differences (SMDs) between CHR individuals and healthy controls (HC) in meta-analysis. Quality of studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. I² index was used to assess heterogeneity and Egger's test was used to assess publication bias.

RESULTS

Eight studies were found to be eligible. The meta-analysis included five studies with a combined study population of 184 CHR subjects and 161 HC. CHR individuals showed lower PPI levels compared to HC in 120 ms inter-stimulus interval or stimulus onset asynchrony paradigm (P = .491, SMD = -0.62). No significant heterogeneity was observed in 120 ms PPI paradigm (χ²  = 3.41, P = .491, I²  = 0.0%).

CONCLUSION

CHR individuals had lower PPI level compared to HC in 120 ms paradigm, which were relatively stable and significant. The results indicate the presence of information processing and inhibitory problems prior to the development of full-blown psychosis. PPI may be clinically used as an objective indicator to supplement the understanding of CHR individuals.

Being Born in Winter-Spring and at Around the Time of an Influenza Pandemic Are Risk Factors for the Development of Schizophrenia: The Apna Study in Navarre, Spain

Background: We analyzed the relationship between the prevalence of schizophrenia and the season of birth and gestation during a period of an influenza pandemic. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis of a prospective population-based cohort of 470,942 adults. We fitted multivariant logistic regression models to determine whether the season of birth and birth in an influenza-pandemic year (1957, 1968, 1977) was associated with schizophrenia. Results: 2077 subjects had been diagnosed with schizophrenia. Logistic regression identified a significantly greater prevalence of schizophrenia in men than in women (OR = 1.516, CI 95% = 1.388–1.665); in those born in the winter or spring than in those born in the summer or autumn (OR = 1.112, CI 95% = 1.020–1.212); and in those born in a period of an influenza pandemic (OR = 1.335, CI 95% = 1.199–1.486). The increase in risk was also significant when each influenza pandemic year was analyzed separately. However, neither month of birth nor season of birth, when each of the four were studied individually, were associated with a statistically significant increase in that risk. Conclusions: The winter–spring period and the influenza pandemics are independent risk factors for developing schizophrenia. This study contradicts many previous studies and thus revitalizes a locked debate in understanding the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of this disorder.

Attitudes towards Risk Prediction in a Help Seeking Population of Early Detection Centers for Mental Disorders-A Qualitative Approach

Big Data approaches raise hope for a paradigm shift towards illness prevention, while others are concerned about discrimination resulting from these approaches. This will become particularly important for people with mental disorders, as research on medical risk profiles and early detection progresses rapidly. This study aimed to explore views and attitudes towards risk prediction in people who, for the first time, sought help at one of three early detection centers for mental disorders in Germany (Cologne, Munich, Dresden). A total of 269 help-seekers answered an open-ended question on the potential use of risk prediction. Attitudes towards risk prediction and motives for its approval or rejection were categorized inductively and analyzed using qualitative content analysis. The anticipated impact on self-determination was a driving decision component, regardless of whether a person would decide for or against risk prediction. Results revealed diverse, sometimes contrasting, motives for both approval and rejection (e.g., the desire to control of one’s life as a reason for and against risk prediction). Knowledge about a higher risk as a potential psychological burden was one of the major reasons against risk prediction. The decision to make use of risk prediction is expected to have far-reaching effects on the quality of life and self-perception of potential users. Healthcare providers should empower those seeking help by carefully considering individual expectations and perceptions of risk prediction.

Structural and functional imaging markers for susceptibility to psychosis

The introduction of clinical criteria for the operationalization of psychosis high risk provided a basis for early detection and treatment of vulnerable individuals. However, about two-thirds of people meeting clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria will never develop a psychotic disorder. In the effort to increase prognostic precision, structural and functional neuroimaging have received growing attention as a potentially useful resource in the prediction of psychotic transition in CHR patients. The present review summarizes current research on neuroimaging biomarkers in the CHR state, with a particular focus on their prognostic utility and limitations. Large, multimodal/multicenter studies are warranted to address issues important for clinical applicability such as generalizability and replicability, standardization of clinical definitions and neuroimaging methods, and consideration of contextual factors (e.g., age, comorbidity).

The architecture of co-morbidity networks of physical and mental health conditions in military veterans

Co-morbidity between medical and psychiatric conditions is commonly considered between individual pairs of conditions. However, an important alternative is to consider all conditions as part of a co-morbidity network, which encompasses all interactions between patients and a healthcare system. Analysis of co-morbidity networks could detect and quantify general tendencies not observed by smaller-scale studies. Here, we investigate the co-morbidity network derived from longitudinal healthcare records from approximately 1 million United States military veterans, a population disproportionately impacted by psychiatric morbidity and psychological trauma. Network analyses revealed marked and heterogenous patterns of co-morbidity, including a multi-scale community structure composed of groups of commonly co-morbid conditions. Psychiatric conditions including posttraumatic stress disorder were strong predictors of future medical morbidity. Neurological conditions and conditions associated with chronic pain were particularly highly co-morbid with psychiatric conditions. Across conditions, the degree of co-morbidity was positively associated with mortality. Co-morbidity was modified by biological sex and could be used to predict future diagnostic status, with out-of-sample prediction accuracy of 90-92%. Understanding complex patterns of disease co-morbidity has the potential to lead to improved designs of systems of care and the development of targeted interventions that consider the broader context of mental and physical health.

A review of negative symptom assessment strategies in youth at clinical high-risk for psychosis

Studies attempting to deconstruct the heterogeneity of schizophrenia and the attenuated psychosis syndrome consistently find that negative symptoms are a core dimension that is distinct from other aspects of the illness (e.g., positive and disorganized symptoms). Negative symptoms are also highly predictive of poor community-based functional outcomes, suggesting they are a critical treatment target. Unfortunately, pharmacological and psychosocial treatments for negative symptoms have demonstrated limited effectiveness. To address this critical unmet therapeutic need, the NIMH sponsored a consensus development conference to delineate research priorities for the field and stimulate treatment development. A primary conclusion of this meeting was that next-generation negative symptom rating scales should be developed to address methodological and conceptual limitations of existing instruments. Although second-generation rating scales were developed for adults with schizophrenia, progress in this area has lagged behind for youth at clinical-high risk (CHR) for developing psychosis (i.e. those meeting criteria for a prodromal syndrome). Given that negative symptoms are highly predictive of the transition to diagnosable psychotic illness, enhancing our ability to detect negative symptoms in CHR youth is paramount. The current paper discusses conceptual and methodological limitations inherent to existing scales that assess negative symptoms in CHR youth. The theoretical and clinical implications of these limitations are evaluated. It is concluded that new scales specifically designed to assess negative symptoms in CHR youth are needed to accurately chart mental illness trajectories and determine when, where, and how to intervene. Recent efforts to develop next-generation measures designed specifically for CHR youth to meet this urgent need in the field are discussed. These new approaches offer significant progress for addressing issues inherent to earlier scales.

Psychomotor Slowing in Schizophrenia: Implications for Endophenotype and Biomarker Development

Motor abnormalities (e.g., dyskinesia, psychomotor slowing, neurological soft signs) are core features of schizophrenia that occur independent of drug treatment and are associated with the genetic vulnerability and pathophysiology for the illness. Among this list, psychomotor slowing in particular is one of the most consistently observed and robust findings in the field. Critically, psychomotor slowing may serve as a uniquely promising endophenotype and/or biomarker for schizophrenia considering it is frequently observed in those with genetic vulnerability for the illness, predicts transition in subjects at high-risk for the disorder, and is associated with symptoms and recovery in patients. The purpose of the present review is to provide an overview of the history of psychomotor slowing in psychosis, discuss its possible neural underpinnings, and review the current literature supporting slowing as a putative endophenotype and/or biomarker for the illness. This review summarizes substantial evidence from a diverse array of methodologies and research designs that supports the notion that psychomotor slowing not only reflects genetic vulnerability, but is also sensitive to disease processes and the pathophysiology of the illness. Furthermore, there are unique deficits across the cognitive (prefix "psycho") and motor execution (root word "motor") aspects of slowing, with cognitive processes such as planning and response selection being particularly affected. These findings suggest that psychomotor slowing may serve as a promising endophenotype and biomarker for schizophrenia that may prove useful for identifying individuals at greatest risk and tracking the course of the illness and recovery.

Early-Onset Schizophrenia With Predominantly Negative Symptoms: A Case Study of a Drug-Naive Female Patient Treated With Cariprazine

Schizophrenia is a chronic and severe mental disorder characterized by positive, negative, and cognitive symptoms. Negative symptoms are usually present from the prodromal phase; early diagnosis and management of negative symptoms is a major health concern since an insidious onset dominated by negative symptoms is associated with a worse outcome. Antipsychotic medications, which are effective for treating positive symptoms, are generally ineffective for treating negative or cognitive symptoms. We present a 23-year-old woman showing severe symptoms at her first visit to our department. The patient's parents reported that their daughter had experienced several years of psychosocial decline and putative psychiatric symptoms, but no medical attention had been previously sought; as such, the diagnosis of schizophrenia with predominantly negative symptoms was very much delayed. Early onset of schizophrenia, longer duration of untreated psychosis, and severe negative symptoms, which have limited treatment options, suggested a poor prognosis. We initiated monotherapy with cariprazine, a novel antipsychotic that has recently been proven efficacious in treating schizophrenia with predominantly negative symptoms. This report describes a 52-week cariprazine treatment regimen and follows the patient's impressive clinical improvement confirmed by PANSS and CGI scores, and psychological tests.

Checking the predictive accuracy of basic symptoms against ultra high-risk criteria and testing of a multivariable prediction model: Evidence from a prospective three-year observational study of persons at clinical high-risk for psychosis

Background:

The aim of this study was to critically examine the prognostic validity of various clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria alone and in combination with additional clinical characteristics.

Methods:

A total of 188 CHR positive persons from the region of Zurich, Switzerland (mean age 20.5 years; 60.2% male), meeting ultra high-risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms (BS) criteria, were followed over three years. The test battery included the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS), verbal IQ and many other screening tools. Conversion to psychosis was defined according to ICD-10 criteria for schizophrenia (F20) or brief psychotic disorder (F23).

Results:

Altogether n = 24 persons developed manifest psychosis within three years and according to Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, the projected conversion rate was 17.5%. The predictive accuracy of UHR was statistically significant but poor (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.65, P < .05), whereas BS did not predict psychosis beyond mere chance (AUC = 0.52, P = .730). Sensitivity and specificity were 0.83 and 0.47 for UHR, and 0.96 and 0.09 for BS. UHR plus BS achieved an AUC = 0.66, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.75 and 0.56. In comparison, baseline antipsychotic medication yielded a predictive accuracy of AUC = 0.62 (sensitivity = 0.42; specificity = 0.82). A multivariable prediction model comprising continuous measures of positive symptoms and verbal IQ achieved a substantially improved prognostic accuracy (AUC = 0.85; sensitivity = 0.86; specificity = 0.85; positive predictive value = 0.54; negative predictive value = 0.97).

Conclusions:

We showed that BS have no predictive accuracy beyond chance, while UHR criteria poorly predict conversion to psychosis. Combining BS with UHR criteria did not improve the predictive accuracy of UHR alone. In contrast, dimensional measures of both positive symptoms and verbal IQ showed excellent prognostic validity. A critical re-thinking of binary at-risk criteria is necessary in order to improve the prognosis of psychotic disorders.

Atypical processing of uncertainty in individuals at risk for psychosis

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Humans at psychosis clinical high risk (CHR) over-estimate environmental volatility.

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Low-level prediction error (PE) signals evoke increased frontal activity in CHR.

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Volatility-related PEs are associated with reduced frontal activity in CHR.

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Frontal cortical activation to low-level PEs reflects impaired clinical functioning.

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Atypical PE learning signal representations may promote delusion formation in CHR.

Current theories of psychosis highlight the role of abnormal learning signals, i.e., prediction errors (PEs) and uncertainty, in the formation of delusional beliefs. We employed computational analyses of behaviour and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine whether such abnormalities are evident in clinical high risk (CHR) individuals.

Non-medicated CHR individuals (n = 13) and control participants (n = 13) performed a probabilistic learning paradigm during fMRI data acquisition. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model to infer subject-specific computations from behaviour – with a focus on PEs and uncertainty (or its inverse, precision) at different levels, including environmental ‘volatility’ – and used these computational quantities for analyses of fMRI data.

Computational modelling of CHR individuals’ behaviour indicated volatility estimates converged to significantly higher levels than in controls. Model-based fMRI demonstrated increased activity in prefrontal and insular regions of CHR individuals in response to precision-weighted low-level outcome PEs, while activations of prefrontal, orbitofrontal and anterior insula cortex by higher-level PEs (that serve to update volatility estimates) were reduced. Additionally, prefrontal cortical activity in response to outcome PEs in CHR was negatively associated with clinical measures of global functioning.

Our results suggest a multi-faceted learning abnormality in CHR individuals under conditions of environmental uncertainty, comprising higher levels of volatility estimates combined with reduced cortical activation, and abnormally high activations in prefrontal and insular areas by precision-weighted outcome PEs. This atypical representation of high- and low-level learning signals might reflect a predisposition to delusion formation.

Alterations in Task-Related Brain Activation in Children, Adolescents and Young Adults at Familial High-Risk for Schizophrenia or Bipolar Disorder - A Systematic Review

Children, adolescents, and young adults with at least one first-degree relative [familial high-risk (FHR)] with either schizophrenia (SZ) or bipolar disorder (BD) have a one-in-two risk of developing a psychiatric disorder. Here, we review functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies which examined task-related brain activity in young individuals with FHR-SZ and FHR-BD. A systematic search identified all published task-related fMRI studies in children, adolescents, and young adults below an age of 27 years with a first-degree relative with SZ or BD, but without manifest psychotic or affective spectrum disorder themselves. The search identified 19 cross-sectional fMRI studies covering four main cognitive domains: 1) working memory (n = 3), 2) cognitive control (n = 4), 3) reward processing (n = 3), and 4) emotion processing (n = 9). Thirteen studies included FHR-BD, five studies included FHR-SZ, and one study included a pooled FHR group. In general, task performance did not differ between the respective FHR groups and healthy controls, but 18 out of the 19 fMRI studies revealed regional alterations in task-related activation. Brain regions showing group differences in peak activation were regions associated with the respective task domain and showed little overlap between FHR-SZ and FHR-BD. The low number of studies, together with the low number of subjects, and the substantial heterogeneity of employed methodological approaches within the domain of working memory, cognitive control, and reward processing impedes finite conclusions. Emotion processing was the most investigated task domain in FHR-BD. Four studies reported differences in activation of the amygdala, and two studies reported differences in activation of inferior frontal/middle gyrus. Together, these studies provide evidence for altered brain processing of emotions in children, adolescents, and young adults at FHR-BD. More studies of higher homogeneity, larger sample sizes and with a longitudinal study design are warranted to prove a shared or specific FHR-related endophenotypic brain activation in young first-degree relatives of individuals with SZ or BD, as well as to pinpoint specific alterations in brain activation during cognitive-, emotional-, and reward-related tasks.

Health literacy in clinical-high-risk individuals for psychosis: A systematic mixed-methods review

OBJECTIVE

Numerous studies suggest that health literacy (HL) plays a crucial role in maintaining and improving individual health. Empirical findings highlight the relation between levels of a person's HL and her/his clinical outcome. To date, the role of HL in persons at-risk for psychosis has not been systematically reviewed.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review using a mixed-methods approach to analyse a variety of study types. Peer-reviewed publications were systematically searched in PUBMED, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO and Web of Science.

RESULTS

The search string returned 10587 publications. After screening, 15 quantitative, four qualitative studies and two reviews were included. Only one study assessed HL as primary outcome, assessing knowledge and beliefs about psychosis among the general population. In the other studies, sub-dimensions of HL were investigated. None of the publications operationalized HL or it's sub-dimensions with a validated measure.

CONCLUSIONS

A lack of understanding of their condition, and fear of stigmatization, were associated with a delay in help-seeking among people with clinical-high-risk state for psychosis. Family members, school personnel, general practitioners and the internet play a crucial role in the HL process. Considerable barriers in obtaining adequate specialist support emphasize the urgent need of a "HL environment" for persons at risk for psychosis.

Integrated Programs for Early Recognition of Severe Mental Disorders: Recommendations From an Italian Multicenter Project

The onset of mental disorders often occurs in adolescence or young adulthood, but the process of early diagnosis and access to timely effective and appropriate services can still be a challenge. The goal of this paper is to describe a pilot case of implementation of the ultra-high-risk (UHR) paradigm in six Italian departments of mental health employing an integrated approach to address clinical practice and service organization for youth in a broader preventive perspective. This approach entailed the integration of the UHR paradigm with a service provision model which prioritizes prevention and the promotion of local community coalitions to improve youth service accessibility. The multicenter Italian project "Integrated programs for recognition and early treatment of severe mental disorders in youths" funded by the National Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (CCM2013 Project) implemented in three Italian regions will be described. As a result of synergic actions targeting accessibility of young individuals to innovative youth mental health teams, a total of 376 subjects aged 15-24 years were recruited by integrated youth services within 12 months. Subjects have been screened by integrated multidisciplinary mental health youth teams employing standardized procedure and evidence-based clinical assessment instruments for at-risk mental states in young subjects [e.g., Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS)]. Considering the three UHR categories included in CAARMS, the percentage of UHR subjects was 35% (n = 127) of the sample. In conclusion, future strategies to improve the organization of youth mental health services from a wider preventive perspective will be proposed.

Four reasons why early detection centers for psychosis should be renamed and their treatment targets reconsidered: we should not catastrophize a future we can neither reliably predict nor change

Since the 1990s, facilities for individuals at putative risk for psychosis have mushroomed and within a very short time have become part of the standard psychiatric infrastructure in many countries. The idea of preventing a severe mental disorder before its exacerbation is laudable, and early data indeed strongly suggested that the sooner the intervention, the better the outcome. In this paper, the authors provide four reasons why they think that early detection or prodromal facilities should be renamed and their treatment targets reconsidered. First, the association between the duration of untreated psychosis and outcome is empirically established but has become increasingly weak over the years. Moreover, its applicability to those who are considered at risk remains elusive. Second, instruments designed to identify future psychosis are prone to many biases that are not yet sufficiently controlled. None of these instruments allows an even remotely precise prognosis. Third, the rate of transition to psychosis in at-risk patients is likely lower than initially thought, and evidence for the success of early intervention in preventing future psychosis is promising but still equivocal. Perhaps most importantly, the treatment is not hope-oriented. Patients are more or less told that schizophrenia is looming over them, which may stigmatize individuals who will never, in fact, develop psychosis. In addition self-stigma has been associated with suicidality and depression. The authors recommend that treatment of help-seeking individuals with mental problems but no established diagnosis should be need-based, and the risk of psychosis should be de-emphasized as it is only one of many possible outcomes, including full remission. Prodromal clinics should not be abolished but should be renamed and restructured. Such clinics exist, but the transformation process needs to be facilitated.

Can schizophrenia be predicted on the basis of a symptom? A psychopathological appraisal of early detection research in schizophrenia

Predictive prospective studies of schizophrenia date back to the late 1950s. At the turn of the Millennium, an Australian research group initiated programs of early detection of schizophrenia and early therapeutic intervention. The theoretical foundations of early schizophrenia detection usually remain unaddressed. In this paper, we focus on the issue of prediction of future schizophrenia in the general population on the basis of a symptomatic picture. Several notions used in this research program such as disease, symptom, and clinical staging derive from a medical model, which in our view is not entirely adequate for grasping the nature of schizophrenia. Schizophrenia is a spectrum of disorders with a shared core Gestalt comprising dis-order of selfhood and intersubjectivity. This core Gestalt has manifold manifestations, often predominantly in the existential or experiential domain. It is not feasible to apply medical concepts to this symptomatically poorly demarcated spectrum for which we do not know robust biological validators. Moreover, there is increasing evidence that the current DSM and ICD criteria of schizophrenia distort the original concept of schizophrenia and are formulated on a very high severity level. This often results in incorrect diagnoses of young help-seeking patients. In sum, it seems more appropriate to detect psychosis among already help-seeking patients than to implement detection programs in the general population. We discuss a reorientation of psychiatry towards more refined psychopathological knowledge and assessment that are needed in order to optimize the treatment of young help-seeking patients.

Liberal Acceptance Bias, Momentary Aberrant Salience, and Psychosis: An Experimental Experience Sampling Study

Cognitive models of psychosis posit that reasoning biases are an important mechanism contributing to the formation of psychotic symptoms, in part through transforming anomalous experiences of aberrant salience into frank psychotic symptoms. This study aimed to investigate the interplay of liberal acceptance (LA) bias, which is a specific type of reasoning bias, and momentary aberrant salience in the development of paranoid and psychotic experiences in daily life in first-episode psychosis patients (FEP), at-risk mental state participants (ARMS), and controls. We used a novel experimental Experience Sampling Methodology (eESM) task for measuring LA bias (ie, decisions based on low probability estimates) and ESM measures of momentary aberrant salience and paranoid and psychotic experiences in 51 FEP, 46 ARMS, and 53 controls. We found evidence that LA bias was more likely to occur in FEP than in controls. Further, LA bias was associated with psychotic and paranoid experiences (all P < .007) and modified the association between momentary aberrant salience and psychotic experiences (χ2(df) = 7.4(2), P = .025) in ARMS, such that momentary salience was associated with more intense psychotic experiences in the presence of LA bias in ARMS, but not in FEP and controls. Our findings suggest that LA bias may be central for anomalous experiences such as momentary aberrant salience to increase intensity of psychotic experiences in at-risk individuals. Further, LA bias appears to be more likely to be present, but not directly linked to current intensity of psychotic experiences, in treated FEP. Novel eESM tasks open new avenues for targeting psychological processes under real-world conditions.

Early Signs of Schizophrenia and Autonomic Nervous System Dysregulation: A Literature Review

OBJECTIVE

Recent research suggests that early signs of schizophrenia can be detected several years before its onset. Evidence suggests that the identification of at-risk individuals before the psychotic onset can significantly improve the course of the disorder. However, instruments employed for the detection of prodromal symptoms are far from being accurate in the prediction of a future transition to psychosis. The aim of the present review is to summarize literature on the early signs of schizophrenia and to identify physiological markers that may aid the identification of the disorder before psychotic transition.

METHOD

This critical review includes studies published between 1979 and 2018 that were indexed in major databases with the following keywords: schizophrenia, prodromal phase, basic symptoms, autonomic nervous system, heart rate variability.

RESULTS

The examination of the relevant literature showed that, despite recent progress in the identification of at-risk states, the currently employed instruments do not allow an effective prediction of a future psychotic onset. Also, evidence suggests a significant association between alterations in the autonomic nervous system (ANS) functioning and psychotic disorders. However, literature on the association between ANS functioning and at-risk states for psychosis is still scarce. The addition of physiological risk indicators may represent a step forward in the detection of at-risk individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the present literature review highlights that a future schizophrenic onset cannot be strongly predicted with current available measures. Given the established correlation between schizophrenia and autonomic dysregulation, an investigation of the ANS functioning in individuals who are at increased risk of developing schizophrenia may be particularly useful to improve the quality of the assessment, to identify at an early stage the dysregulated physiological patterns that have been linked with schizophrenia, and therefore to develop tailored interventions. Accordingly, it is crucial that future research investigates the presence of autonomic deficits in individuals at risk for psychosis.

Assessment and treatment of individuals at high risk for psychosis

Early detection and specialised early intervention for people at high risk for psychotic disorders have received growing attention in the past few decades, with the aim of delaying or preventing the outbreak of explicit psychotic symptoms and improving functional outcomes. This article summarises criteria for a diagnosis of high psychosis risk, the implications for such a diagnosis and recommendations for treatment.

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

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DECLARATION OF INTEREST

C.A. has received non-financial support from Sunovion and Lundbeck in the past 36 months.

Early Somatosensory Processing Over Time in Individuals at Risk to Develop Psychosis

Objective: Somatosensory evoked potentials (SEPs) enable the investigation of thalamocortical and early cortical processing. Previous studies reported alterations of SEPs in patients with schizophrenia as well as in individuals in the prodromal stage. Moreover, cannabis use as an environmental risk factor for the development of schizophrenia has been demonstrated to influence SEP parameters in individuals at risk to develop psychosis. The aim of this study was to explore the course of SEP changes and the impact of concomitant cannabis use in individuals at risk to develop psychosis who sought medical help. Methods: Median nerve SEPs including high-frequency oscillations (HFOs) superimposed on the primary cortical response (N20) were investigated using multichannel EEG in individuals (n = 54 at baseline) remaining at risk to develop psychosis at follow-up after 1 year (high-risk: n = 19; ultra-high-risk: n = 27) vs. subjects with conversion to psychosis (n = 8) and a healthy control group (n = 35). Longitudinal and cross-sectional analyses of SEP components as estimated by dipole source analysis were performed. Results: The longitudinal development of the N20 strength depended on cannabis use. In cannabis non-users, a greater decrease of N20 strengths over time was associated with more negative symptoms at baseline. At baseline, converters did not differ from subjects remaining at risk. At follow-up, converters showed increased low- and high-frequency activity than at-risk subjects and did not differ from controls. Conclusion: The results of this study lead to the suggestion that the deficits in early somatosensory processing in individuals at risk to develop psychosis may not represent a marker for a genetic risk for psychosis but rather reflect state-dependent factors such as negative symptoms. On the other hand, the transition to psychosis seems to represent an interstage between reduced sensory registration from the at-risk state and gating deficits in the chronic state.

Course of psychotic symptoms, depression and global functioning in persons at clinical high risk of psychosis: Results of a longitudinal observation study over three years focusing on both converters and non-converters

The aim of this study was to test the validity of the CHR state by focusing on the course of psychosis spectrum symptoms, depression and global functioning in converters and non-converters. A total of 188 CHR-positive subjects (60.2% men) aged between 13 and 35years (mean=20.5) at study outset were assessed five times (t0-t4) over a total observation period of 36months. Conversion to manifest psychosis was defined according to ICD-10 criteria for schizophrenia (F20) or brief psychotic disorder (F23). Measures of positive and negative symptoms were assessed with the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS), depression with the Calgary Depression Scale (CDS), and global functioning with the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale (GAF). Converters scored higher over time on all SIPS scales apart from grandiosity (Cohen's d: 0.5-0.7; all p<0.001), higher on the CDS (d=0.43, p=0.001) and lower on the GAF (d=0.69, p<0.001) than did non-converters. Positive and negative symptoms as well as depression were most severe at study outset (t0) and then declined sharply following a linear function over the three-year observation period (t1-t4) across groups (all linear contrasts p<0.001). In conclusion, converters showed significantly more psychopathological symptoms and poorer functioning before crossing the diagnostic threshold for manifest psychosis. CHR-subjects who convert to manifest psychosis during follow-up appear to be recovering from illness rather than becoming ill. Major issues involve the poor discrimination of CHR state and psychosis as well as the dichotomous definition of both at-risk and disease states. Further examination in other CHR-samples is warranted.

Disclosure of Diagnosis in Early Recognition of Psychosis

There is a debate concerning risks and benefits of early intervention in psychosis, especially concerning diagnosis disclosure. The present study reports preliminary findings on self-reported locus of control and psychological distress after the disclosure of diagnosis in an early recognition center. We compared the ratings of the locus of control and psychological distress before and after communication of diagnosis. The study included individuals with an at-risk mental state (ARMS) (n = 10), schizophrenia (n = 9), and other psychiatric disorders (n = 11). Results indicate greater endorsement of the internal locus of control in individuals with ARMS after communication of diagnosis in contrast to the other groups. Our results suggest that disclosure of diagnosis in an early recognition center leads to a reduction of psychological distress and increased feelings of control over one's health. Persons with ARMS seem to particularly benefit from disclosure of diagnosis as part of early intervention.

Animal Models of Maternal Immune Activation in Depression Research

Abstract: Background

Depression and schizophrenia are debilitating mental illnesses with significant socio-economic impact. The high degree of comorbidity between the two disorders, and shared symptoms and risk factors, suggest partly common pathogenic mechanisms. Supported by human and animal studies, maternal immune activation (MIA) has been intimately associated with the development of schizophrenia. However, the link between MIA and depression has remained less clear, in part due to the lack of appropriate animal models.

Objective

Here we aim to summarize findings obtained from studies using MIA animal models and discuss their relevance for preclinical depression research.

Methods

Results on molecular, cellular and behavioral phenotypes in MIA animal models were collected by literature search (PubMed) and evaluated for their significance for depression.

Results

Several reports on offspring depression-related behavioral alterations indicate an involvement of MIA in the development of depression later in life. Depression-related behavioral phenotypes were frequently paralleled by neurogenic and neurotrophic deficits and modulated by several genetic and environmental factors.

Conclusion

Literature evidence analyzed in this review supports a relevance of MIA as animal model for a specific early life adversity, which may prime an individual for the development of distinct psychopathologies later life. MIA animal models may present a unique tool for the identification of additional exogenous and endogenous factors, which are required for the manifestation of a specific neuropsychiatric disorder, such as depression, later in life. Hereby, novel insights into the molecular mechanisms involved in the pathophysiology of depression may be obtained, supporting the identification of alternative therapeutic strategies.

Psychological processes underlying the association between childhood trauma and psychosis in daily life: an experience sampling study

BACKGROUND

Evidence has accumulated that implicates childhood trauma in the aetiology of psychosis, but our understanding of the putative psychological processes and mechanisms through which childhood trauma impacts on individuals and contributes to the development of psychosis remains limited. We aimed to investigate whether stress sensitivity and threat anticipation underlie the association between childhood abuse and psychosis.

METHOD

We used the Experience Sampling Method to measure stress, threat anticipation, negative affect, and psychotic experiences in 50 first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients, 44 At-Risk Mental State (ARMS) participants, and 52 controls. Childhood abuse was assessed using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire.

RESULTS

Associations of minor socio-environmental stress in daily life with negative affect and psychotic experiences were modified by sexual abuse and group (all p FWE < 0.05). While there was strong evidence that these associations were greater in FEP exposed to high levels of sexual abuse, and some evidence of greater associations in ARMS exposed to high levels of sexual abuse, controls exposed to high levels of sexual abuse were more resilient and reported less intense negative emotional reactions to socio-environmental stress. A similar pattern was evident for threat anticipation.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated sensitivity and lack of resilience to socio-environmental stress and enhanced threat anticipation in daily life may be important psychological processes underlying the association between childhood sexual abuse and psychosis.

Self-Disorders and Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: An Empirical Study in Help-Seeking Youth Attending Community Mental Health Facilities

Anomalous subjective experiences involving an alteration of the basic sense of self (ie, Self-disorder [SD]) are emerging as a core marker of schizophrenia spectrum disorders with potential impact on current early detection strategies as well. In this study, we wished to field-test the prevalence of SD in a clinical sample of adolescent/young adult help-seekers at putative risk for psychosis attending standard community mental health facilities in Italy. Participants (n = 47), aged between 14 and 25, underwent extensive psychopathological evaluations with current semi-structured tools to assess Clinical High Risk (CHR) state (ie, Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes/Scale of Prodromal Symptoms [SIPS/SOPS], Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument-Adult/Child and Youth [SPI-A/CY]). SD aggregated in CHR subjects as compared to the non-CHR and revealed substantial association with sub-psychotic symptoms (SIPS), subjective experience of cognitive and cognitive-perceptual vulnerability (basic symptoms) and functional level (Global Assessment of functioning). Moreover, a combination of the 2 approaches (ie, CHR plus SD) enabled further "closing-in" on a subgroup of CHR with lower global functioning. The results confirm SD's relevance for the early profiling of youths at potential high risk for psychosis.

Stress Sensitivity, Aberrant Salience, and Threat Anticipation in Early Psychosis: An Experience Sampling Study

While contemporary models of psychosis have proposed a number of putative psychological mechanisms, how these impact on individuals to increase intensity of psychotic experiences in real life, outside the research laboratory, remains unclear. We aimed to investigate whether elevated stress sensitivity, experiences of aberrant novelty and salience, and enhanced anticipation of threat contribute to the development of psychotic experiences in daily life. We used the experience sampling method (ESM) to assess stress, negative affect, aberrant salience, threat anticipation, and psychotic experiences in 51 individuals with first-episode psychosis (FEP), 46 individuals with an at-risk mental state (ARMS) for psychosis, and 53 controls with no personal or family history of psychosis. Linear mixed models were used to account for the multilevel structure of ESM data. In all 3 groups, elevated stress sensitivity, aberrant salience, and enhanced threat anticipation were associated with an increased intensity of psychotic experiences. However, elevated sensitivity to minor stressful events (χ(2)= 6.3,P= 0.044), activities (χ(2)= 6.7,P= 0.036), and areas (χ(2)= 9.4,P= 0.009) and enhanced threat anticipation (χ(2)= 9.3,P= 0.009) were associated with more intense psychotic experiences in FEP individuals than controls. Sensitivity to outsider status (χ(2)= 5.7,P= 0.058) and aberrantly salient experiences (χ(2)= 12.3,P= 0.002) were more strongly associated with psychotic experiences in ARMS individuals than controls. Our findings suggest that stress sensitivity, aberrant salience, and threat anticipation are important psychological processes in the development of psychotic experiences in daily life in the early stages of the disorder.

Ten-year stability of self-reported schizotypal personality features in patients with psychosis and their healthy siblings

Schizotypal personality disorder (SPD) symptoms or features are common in patients with psychosis and their healthy relatives. However, the long-term stability of these SPD features and therefore their constituting enduring traits underlying vulnerability to psychosis remain to be clarified. Thirty-two patients with psychotic disorders and 29 of their healthy siblings were included from the long-term follow-up study of 89 nuclear families. Participants were clinically assessed by means of a semi-structured diagnostic interview, whereas the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire-Brief (SPQ-B) was applied for the self-assessment of SPD symptoms. The assessments were carried out upon admission to the study and at follow-up, about 10 years later. The patients had higher scores than their siblings on the SPQ-B both at baseline and follow-up. In addition, self-reported SPD symptoms remained stable over time in total scores and in all the SPQ-B subscores, except for the SPQ-B Disorganization subscale. Self-reported SPD symptoms were stable over the long term among patients with psychotic disorders and their healthy siblings. This finding provides new support for including the SPD construct as a trait measure for studies addressing both vulnerability to psychosis in first-degree relatives of patients with psychosis and long-term persistence of symptoms in patients suffering from psychosis.

Self-reported symptoms and health service use in adolescence in persons who later develop psychotic disorders: a prospective case-control study

AIM

To investigate self-reported psychiatric and somatic symptoms and health service use at age 16 in persons who later developed a psychotic disorder compared with a control group from the same geographical areas.

METHOD

Responses concerning psychiatric or somatic health and health service use from Norwegian youth studies in a cohort of 15- and 16-year-olds in three Norwegian counties (N = 11 101, 90% response rate) were gathered. The questionnaire responses from persons later identified with a lifetime diagnosis of DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition) psychotic disorders (n = 30) (confirmed psychosis, CP) were compared with responses from the rest of the group (population control, PC) (n = 11 067). Follow-up analyses were made for cases with a confirmed onset of a psychotic disorder after the time of the survey (n = 21).

RESULTS

The main significant differences between the CP and PC groups were more self-reported anxiety, depression and 'feeling in need of treatment for eating disorders' at age 16 in the CP group. The rate of self-reported eating disorder symptoms alone reached the level of statistical significance in the follow-up analyses. The CP group did not use available health services to a markedly greater extent than the control group.

CONCLUSION

We found that, in comparison with others, youths who were later identified with a psychotic disorder reported more symptoms at age 16.

Forecasting psychosis by event-related potentials-systematic review and specific meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Prediction and prevention of psychosis have become major research topics. Clinical approaches warrant objective biological parameters to enhance validity in prediction of psychosis onset. In this regard, event-related potentials (ERPs) have been identified as promising tools for improving psychosis prediction.

METHODS

Herein, the focus is on sensory gating, mismatch negativity (MMN) and P300, thereby discussing which parameters allow for a timely and valid detection of future converters to psychosis. In a first step, we systematically reviewed the studies that resulted from a search of the MEDLINE database. In a second step, we performed a meta-analysis of those investigations reporting transitions that statistically compared ERPs in converting versus nonconverting subjects.

RESULTS

Sensory gating, MMN, and P300 have been demonstrated to be impaired in subjects clinically at risk of developing a psychotic disorder. In the meta-analysis, duration MMN achieved the highest effect size measures.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, MMN studies have produced the most convincing results until now, including independent replication of the predictive validity. However, a synopsis of the literature revealed a relative paucity of ERP studies addressing the psychosis risk state. Considering the high clinical relevance of valid psychosis prediction, future research should question for the most informative paradigms and should allow for meta-analytic evaluation with regard to specificity and sensitivity of the most appropriate parameters.

EPA guidance on the early detection of clinical high risk states of psychoses

The aim of this guidance paper of the European Psychiatric Association is to provide evidence-based recommendations on the early detection of a clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis in patients with mental problems. To this aim, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies reporting on conversion rates to psychosis in non-overlapping samples meeting any at least any one of the main CHR criteria: ultra-high risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms criteria. Further, effects of potential moderators (different UHR criteria definitions, single UHR criteria and age) on conversion rates were examined. Conversion rates in the identified 42 samples with altogether more than 4000 CHR patients who had mainly been identified by UHR criteria and/or the basic symptom criterion 'cognitive disturbances' (COGDIS) showed considerable heterogeneity. While UHR criteria and COGDIS were related to similar conversion rates until 2-year follow-up, conversion rates of COGDIS were significantly higher thereafter. Differences in onset and frequency requirements of symptomatic UHR criteria or in their different consideration of functional decline, substance use and co-morbidity did not seem to impact on conversion rates. The 'genetic risk and functional decline' UHR criterion was rarely met and only showed an insignificant pooled sample effect. However, age significantly affected UHR conversion rates with lower rates in children and adolescents. Although more research into potential sources of heterogeneity in conversion rates is needed to facilitate improvement of CHR criteria, six evidence-based recommendations for an early detection of psychosis were developed as a basis for the EPA guidance on early intervention in CHR states.

A familial risk enriched cohort as a platform for testing early interventions to prevent severe mental illness

BACKGROUND

Severe mental illness (SMI), including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and severe depression, is responsible for a substantial proportion of disability in the population. This article describes the aims and design of a research study that takes a novel approach to targeted prevention of SMI. It is based on the rationale that early developmental antecedents to SMI are likely to be more malleable than fully developed mood or psychotic disorders and that low-risk interventions targeting antecedents may reduce the risk of SMI.

METHODS/DESIGN

Families Overcoming Risks and Building Opportunities for Well-being (FORBOW) is an accelerated cohort study that includes a large proportion of offspring of parents with SMI and embeds intervention trials in a cohort multiple randomized controlled trial (cmRCT) design. Antecedents are conditions of the individual that are distressing but not severely impairing, predict SMI with moderate-to-large effect sizes and precede the onset of SMI by at least several years. FORBOW focuses on the following antecedents: affective lability, anxiety, psychotic-like experiences, basic symptoms, sleep problems, somatic symptoms, cannabis use and cognitive delay. Enrolment of offspring over a broad age range (0 to 21 years) will allow researchers to draw conclusions on a longer developmental period from a study of shorter duration. Annual assessments cover a full range of psychopathology, cognitive abilities, eligibility criteria for interventions and outcomes. Pre-emptive early interventions (PEI) will include skill training for parents of younger children and courses in emotional well-being skills based on cognitive behavioural therapy for older children and youth. A sample enriched for familial risk of SMI will enhance statistical power for testing the efficacy of PEI.

DISCUSSION

FORBOW offers a platform for efficient and unbiased testing of interventions selected according to best available evidence. Since few differences exist between familial and 'sporadic' SMI, the same interventions are likely to be effective in the general population. Comparison of short-term efficacy of PEI on antecedents and the long term efficacy for preventing the onset of SMI will provide an experimental test of the etiological role of antecedents in the development of SMI.

Neurocognitive profiles in help-seeking individuals: comparison of risk for psychosis and bipolar disorder criteria

BACKGROUND

Neurocognitive deficits are important aspects of the schizophrenic disorders because they have a strong impact on social and vocational outcomes. We expanded on previous research by focusing on the neurocognitive profiles of persons at high risk (HR) or ultra-high risk (UHR) for schizophrenic and affective psychoses. Our main aim was to determine whether neurocognitive measures are sufficiently sensitive to predict a group affiliation based on deficits in functional domains.

METHOD

This study included 207 help-seeking individuals identified as HR (n = 75), UHR (n = 102) or at high risk for bipolar disorder (HRBip; n = 30), who were compared with persons comprising a matched, healthy control group (CG; n = 50). Neuropsychological variables were sorted according to their load in a factor analysis and were compared among groups. In addition, the likelihood of group membership was estimated using logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

The performance of HR and HRBip participants was comparable, and intermediate between the controls and UHR. The domain of processing speed was most sensitive in discriminating HR and UHR [odds ratio (OR) 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.28-0.78, p = 0.004] whereas learning and memory deficits predicted a conversion to schizophrenic psychosis (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.25-0.87, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Performances on neurocognitive tests differed among our three at-risk groups and may therefore be useful in predicting psychosis. Overall, cognition had a profound effect on the extent of general functioning and satisfaction with life for subjects at risk of psychosis. Thus, this factor should become a treatment target in itself.

Prediction and prevention of psychosis: current progress and future tasks

Prevention of psychoses has been intensively investigated within the past two decades, and particularly, prediction has been much advanced. Depending on the applied risk indicators, current criteria are associated with average, yet significantly heterogeneous transition rates of ≥30 % within 3 years, further increasing with longer follow-up periods. Risk stratification offers a promising approach to advance current prediction as it can help to reduce heterogeneity of transition rates and to identify subgroups with specific needs and response patterns, enabling a targeted intervention. It may also be suitable to improve risk enrichment. Current results suggest the future implementation of multi-step risk algorithms combining sensitive risk detection by cognitive basic symptoms (COGDIS) and ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria with additional individual risk estimation by a prognostic index that relies on further predictors such as additional clinical indicators, functional impairment, neurocognitive deficits, and EEG and structural MRI abnormalities, but also considers resilience factors. Simply combining COGDIS and UHR criteria in a second step of risk stratification produced already a 4-year hazard rate of 0.66. With regard to prevention, two recent meta-analyses demonstrated that preventive measures enable a reduction in 12-month transition rates by 54-56 % with most favorable numbers needed to treat of 9-10. Unfortunately, psychosocial functioning, another important target of preventive efforts, did not improve. However, these results are based on a relatively small number of trials; and more methodologically sound studies and a stronger consideration of individual profiles of clinical needs by modular intervention programs are required.

Towards indicated prevention of psychosis: using probabilistic assessments of transition risk in psychosis prodrome

The concept of indicated prevention has proliferated in psychiatry, and accumulating evidence suggests that it may indeed be possible to prevent or delay the onset of a first episode of psychosis though adequate interventions in individuals deemed at clinical high risk (CHR) for such an event. One challenge undermining these efforts is the relatively poor predictive accuracy of clinical assessments used in practice for CHR individuals, often leading to diagnostic and therapeutic uncertainty reflected in clinical guidelines promoting a 'watch and wait' approach to CHR patients. Using data from published studies, and employing predictive models based on the odds-ratio form of Bayes' rule, we simulated scenarios where clinical interview, neurocognitive testing, structural magnetic resonance imaging and electrophysiology are part of the initial assessment process of a CHR individual (extended diagnostic approach). Our findings indicate that for most at-risk patients, at least three of these assessments are necessary to arrive at a clinically meaningful differentiation into high- intermediate-, and low-risk groups. In particular, patients with equivocal results in the initial assessments require additional diagnostic testing to produce an accurate risk profile forming part of the comprehensive initial assessment. The findings may inform future research into reliable identification and personalized therapeutic targeting of CHR patients, to prevent transition to full-blown psychosis.