Field procedures in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

Improving explainability of post-separation suicide attempt prediction models for transitioning service members: insights from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers - Longitudinal Study

Risk of U.S. Army soldier suicide-related behaviors increases substantially after separation from service. As universal prevention programs have been unable to resolve this problem, a previously reported machine learning model was developed using pre-separation predictors to target high-risk transitioning service members (TSMs) for more intensive interventions. This model is currently being used in a demonstration project. The model is limited, though, in two ways. First, the model was developed and trained in a relatively small cross-validation sample (n = 4044) and would likely be improved if a larger sample was available. Second, the model provides no guidance on subtyping high-risk TSMs. This report presents results of an attempt to refine the model to address these limitations by re-estimating the model in a larger sample (n = 5909) and attempting to develop embedded models for differential risk of post-separation stressful life events (SLEs) known to mediate the association of model predictions with post-separation nonfatal suicide attempts (SAs; n = 4957). Analysis used data from the Army STARRS Longitudinal Surveys. The revised model improved prediction of post-separation SAs in the first year (AUC = 0.85) and second-third years (AUC = 0.77) after separation, but embedded models could not predict post-separation SLEs with enough accuracy to support intervention targeting.

Undetected suicide attempts among U.S. soldiers: results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

BACKGROUND

While previous studies have reported high rates of documented suicide attempts (SAs) in the U.S. Army, the extent to which soldiers make SAs that are not identified in the healthcare system is unknown. Understanding undetected suicidal behavior is important in broadening prevention and intervention efforts.

METHODS

Representative survey of U.S. Regular Army enlisted soldiers (n = 24 475). Reported SAs during service were compared with SAs documented in administrative medical records. Logistic regression analyses examined sociodemographic characteristics differentiating soldiers with an undetected SA v. documented SA. Among those with an undetected SA, chi-square tests examined characteristics associated with receiving a mental health diagnosis (MH-Dx) prior to SA. Discrete-time survival analysis estimated risk of undetected SA by time in service.

RESULTS

Prevalence of undetected SA (unweighted n = 259) was 1.3%. Annual incidence was 255.6 per 100 000 soldiers, suggesting one in three SAs are undetected. In multivariable analysis, rank ⩾E5 (OR = 3.1[95%CI 1.6-5.7]) was associated with increased odds of undetected v. documented SA. Females were more likely to have a MH-Dx prior to their undetected SA (Rao-Scott χ21 = 6.1, p = .01). Over one-fifth of undetected SAs resulted in at least moderate injury. Risk of undetected SA was greater during the first four years of service.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that substantially more soldiers make SAs than indicated by estimates based on documented attempts. A sizable minority of undetected SAs result in significant injury. Soldiers reporting an undetected SA tend to be higher ranking than those with documented SAs. Undetected SAs require additional approaches to identifying individuals at risk.

Suicide without warning: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS)

Objectives

The rate of suicide increased in members of the United States Army since 2011 after the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and continues to be a major concern. In order to reverse this disturbing trend, it is vital to understand the risk and protective factors for suicide death in servicemembers.

Methods

Data were obtained from a case-control psychological autopsy study, which compared U.S. Army suicide decedent cases (n = 135) to a probability sample of living controls (n = 255) who are also service members weighted to be representative of the Army. Interviews were conducted with next-of-kin (NOK) and supervisor (SUP) informants. Multivariable logistic regressions models were constructed using predictors significant after controlling for multiple comparisons.

Results

The most parsimonious multivariable model controlling for deployment status, as reported by SUP predicting suicide death consisted of four significant variables: a spouse or partner left him or her in the past month (OR = 28.5 [95% CI = 1.8, 442.7] χ2 = 5.72, p = .0168); a smaller social network (OR = 4.2 [95% CI = 1.0, 17.3] χ2 = 3.97, p = .0462), less likely to seek help from a mental health counselor (OR = 3.4 [95% CI = 1.2, 9.7] χ2 = 5.35, p = .0207) and more likely to be described as incautious (OR = 3.8 [95% CI = 1.2, 11.7] χ2 = 5.42, p = .0199). The AUC = .88 [95%CI = 0.82, 0.94] for this regression model suggests strong prediction.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that recent relationship problems, especially in soldiers who are less likely to seek out support from others, may be warning signs for detection and prevention of imminent risk of suicide and according to supervisor informant surveys, had neither evidence of a mental health disorder, nor disclosed suicidal ideation or self-harm. Implications for suicide prevention are discussed.

Attachment Style, Social Support Network, and Lifetime Suicide Ideation and Suicide Attempts Among New Soldiers in the U.S. Army

OBJECTIVE

Attachment style and social support networks (SSN) are associated with suicide ideation (SI) and suicide attempt (SA). How these two factors interact is important to understanding the mechanisms of risk for suicidal behaviors and identifying interventions.

METHOD

Using the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers New Soldier Study (N = 38,507 soldiers), we examined how three attachment styles (preoccupied, fearful, and secure) and SSN (smaller vs larger) were associated with lifetime SI, SA, and SA among soldiers with SI. The interaction of each attachment style by SSN was examined.

RESULTS

All three attachment styles were associated with SI and SA in the total sample (for SA: preoccupied OR = 2.82, fearful OR = 2.84, and secure OR = 0.76). Preoccupied and fearful attachment were associated with SA among suicide ideators. Smaller SSN was associated with a higher risk for all three outcomes (range of ORs = 1.23-1.52). The association of SSN with SI and with SA among suicide ideators was significantly modified by the presence or absence of preoccupied attachment style. Among soldiers without preoccupied attachment, larger SSN was associated with lower risk of SI. Among suicide ideators with preoccupied attachment, a larger SSN was associated with lower risk of SA.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the need for increased understanding of the role of attachment style and social networks in suicide risk, in particular preoccupied attachment among soldiers with SI. A critical next step is to explore these relationships prospectively to guide intervention development.

Perspectives of suicide loss survivors: Qualitative analysis of data from a psychological autopsy study of U.S. Army soldiers

INTRODUCTION

Suicide loss survivors can provide information not otherwise available about the circumstances preceding a suicide. In this study, we analyzed interview data from suicide loss survivors collected as part of a psychological autopsy study of U.S. Army soldiers.

METHODS

Next-of-kin (NOK) (n = 61) and Army supervisors (SUP) (n = 107) of suicide decedents (n = 135) who had died in the last 2-3 months answered open-ended questions about suicide risk factors, ideas for improving suicide prevention, and the impact of the suicide. Responses were coded using conventional content analysis methods to identify common themes.

RESULTS

Many NOK (30%) and SUP (50%) did not observe any signs of risk preceding the soldier's suicide. The most common idea regarding suicide prevention from SUP was that the suicide was inevitable, whereas NOK were more likely to emphasize the importance of increasing mental health treatment and reducing stigma. Both NOK and SUP reported negative effects of the suicide, but SUP reported some positive effects (e.g., increased unit connectedness).

CONCLUSIONS

Results underscore the challenges of using informants to identify soldiers at high risk of suicide, given many respondents did not observe any warning signs. Findings also highlight attitudinal barriers present in the military that, if targeted, may increase soldiers' help-seeking and willingness to disclose their risk.

Predicting Homelessness Among Transitioning U.S. Army Soldiers

INTRODUCTION

This study develops a practical method to triage Army transitioning service members (TSMs) at highest risk of homelessness to target a preventive intervention.

METHODS

The sample included 4,790 soldiers from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) who participated in 1 of 3 Army STARRS 2011-2014 baseline surveys followed by the third wave of the STARRS-LS online panel surveys (2020-2022). Two machine learning models were trained: a Stage-1 model that used administrative predictors and geospatial data available for all TSMs at discharge to identify high-risk TSMs for initial outreach; and a Stage-2 model estimated in the high-risk subsample that used self-reported survey data to help determine highest risk based on additional information collected from high-risk TSMs once they are contacted. The outcome in both models was homelessness within 12 months after leaving active service.

RESULTS

Twelve-month prevalence of post-transition homelessness was 5.0% (SE=0.5). The Stage-1 model identified 30% of high-risk TSMs who accounted for 52% of homelessness. The Stage-2 model identified 10% of all TSMs (i.e., 33% of high-risk TSMs) who accounted for 35% of all homelessness (i.e., 63% of the homeless among high-risk TSMs).

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning can help target outreach and assessment of TSMs for homeless prevention interventions.

A practical risk calculator for suicidal behavior among transitioning U.S. Army soldiers: results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS)

BACKGROUND

Risk of suicide-related behaviors is elevated among military personnel transitioning to civilian life. An earlier report showed that high-risk U.S. Army soldiers could be identified shortly before this transition with a machine learning model that included predictors from administrative systems, self-report surveys, and geospatial data. Based on this result, a Veterans Affairs and Army initiative was launched to evaluate a suicide-prevention intervention for high-risk transitioning soldiers. To make targeting practical, though, a streamlined model and risk calculator were needed that used only a short series of self-report survey questions.

METHODS

We revised the original model in a sample of n = 8335 observations from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) who participated in one of three Army STARRS 2011-2014 baseline surveys while in service and in one or more subsequent panel surveys (LS1: 2016-2018, LS2: 2018-2019) after leaving service. We trained ensemble machine learning models with constrained numbers of item-level survey predictors in a 70% training sample. The outcome was self-reported post-transition suicide attempts (SA). The models were validated in the 30% test sample.

RESULTS

Twelve-month post-transition SA prevalence was 1.0% (s.e. = 0.1). The best constrained model, with only 17 predictors, had a test sample ROC-AUC of 0.85 (s.e. = 0.03). The 10-30% of respondents with the highest predicted risk included 44.9-92.5% of 12-month SAs.

CONCLUSIONS

An accurate SA risk calculator based on a short self-report survey can target transitioning soldiers shortly before leaving service for intervention to prevent post-transition SA.

Stressful Life Events and Risk of Homelessness After Active Duty: An Assessment of Risk and Resilience Among Servicemembers

OBJECTIVES

The transition from military to civilian life may present increased exposure to various stressful life events (SLEs) that can increase the risk of homelessness (eg, loss of employment, dissolution of romantic relationships). We assessed the extent to which exposure to SLEs occurring proximal to US Army soldier transitions out of active duty was associated with risk of homelessness.

METHODS

A total of 16 589 respondents who were no longer on active duty but participated while on active duty during 2011-2014 baseline surveys completed follow-up surveys during 2016-2018 and 2018-2019. The follow-up surveys assessed SLEs and homelessness occurring in the past 12 months. We used modified Poisson regression models to evaluate how much differential SLE exposure and effects explained the aggregate association of a risk index with homelessness among a sample of 6837 respondents, weighted to represent the full sample.

RESULTS

More than half (n = 3510, 52.8%) of respondents reported experiencing any SLEs in the past 12 months. Most (60.5%) of the difference in prevalence of homelessness among respondents defined as being at high risk of homelessness (vs lower risk) was explained by differential exposure to, and/or effects of, these SLEs. Personal betrayal by a loved one and economic problems played the largest roles in adjusted risk differences (0.045 and 0.074, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Homelessness might be reduced by gearing interventions toward soldiers at high risk of homelessness who are transitioning out of active duty to reduce exposure to and effects of modifiable SLEs on experiencing homelessness.

Social network size and personality traits independently and prospectively predict distress disorders and suicidal behavior in U.S. Army soldiers

BACKGROUND

Personality traits (e.g. neuroticism) and the social environment predict risk for internalizing disorders and suicidal behavior. Studying these characteristics together and prospectively within a population confronted with high stressor exposure (e.g. U.S. Army soldiers) has not been done, yet could uncover unique and interactive predictive effects that may inform prevention and early intervention efforts.

METHODS

Five broad personality traits and social network size were assessed via self-administered questionnaires among experienced soldiers preparing for deployment (N = 4645) and new soldiers reporting for basic training (N = 6216). Predictive models examined associations of baseline personality and social network variables with recent distress disorders or suicidal behaviors assessed 3- and 9-months post-deployment and approximately 5 years following enlistment.

RESULTS

Among the personality traits, elevated neuroticism was consistently associated with increased mental health risk following deployment. Small social networks were also associated with increased mental health risk following deployment, beyond the variance accounted for by personality. Limited support was found for social network size moderating the association between personality and mental health outcomes. Small social networks also predicted distress disorders and suicidal behavior 5 years following enlistment, whereas unique effects of personality traits on these more distal outcomes were rare.

CONCLUSIONS

Heightened neuroticism and small social networks predict a greater risk for negative mental health sequelae, especially following deployment. Social ties may mitigate adverse impacts of personality traits on psychopathology in some contexts. Early identification and targeted intervention for these distinct, modifiable factors may decrease the risk of distress disorders and suicidal behavior.

Prospective Associations of Military Discharge Characterization with Post-active Duty Suicide Attempts and Homelessness: Results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS)

INTRODUCTION

Active duty service members transitioning to civilian life can experience significant readjustment stressors. Over the past two decades of the United States' longest sustained conflict, reducing transitioning veterans' suicidal behavior and homelessness became national priorities. However, it remains a significant challenge to identify which service members are at greatest risk of these post-active duty outcomes. Discharge characterization, which indicates the quality of an individual's military service and affects eligibility for benefits and services at the Department of Veterans Affairs, is a potentially important indicator of risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study used data from two self-report panel surveys of the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) (LS1: 2016-2018, n = 14,508; and LS2: 2018-2019, n = 12,156), which were administered to respondents who previously participated while on active duty in one of the three Army STARRS baseline self-report surveys (2011-2014): the New Soldier Study (NSS), a survey of soldiers entering basic training; All Army Study, a survey of active duty soldiers around the world; and the Pre-Post Deployment Study, a survey of soldiers before and after combat deployment. Human Subjects Committees of the participating institutions approved all recruitment, informed consent, and data collection protocols. We used modified Poisson regression models to prospectively examine the association of discharge characterization (honorable, general, "bad paper" [other than honorable, bad conduct, dishonorable], and uncharacterized [due to separation within the first 180 days of service]) with suicide attempt (subsample of n = 4334 observations) and homelessness (subsample of n = 6837 observations) among those no longer on active duty (i.e., separated or deactivated). Analyses controlled for other suicide attempt and homelessness risk factors using standardized risk indices that were previously developed using the LS survey data.

RESULTS

Twelve-month prevalence rates of self-reported suicide attempts and homelessness in the total pooled LS sample were 1.0% and 2.9%, respectively. While not associated with suicide attempt risk, discharge characterization was associated with homelessness after controlling for other risk factors. Compared to soldiers with an honorable discharge, those with a bad paper discharge had an increased risk of homelessness in the total sample (relative risk [RR] = 4.4 [95% CI = 2.3-8.4]), as well as within subsamples defined by which baseline survey respondents completed (NSS vs. All Army Study/Pre-Post Deployment Study), whether respondents had been separated (vs. deactivated), and how much time had elapsed since respondents were last on active duty.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a robust association between receiving a bad paper discharge and post-separation/deactivation homelessness. Policies that enhance transition assistance and access to mental healthcare for high-risk soldiers may aid in reducing post-separation/deactivation homelessness among those who do not receive an honorable discharge.

Associations of vulnerability to stressful life events with suicide attempts after active duty among high-risk soldiers: results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-longitudinal study (STARRS-LS)

BACKGROUND

The transition from military service to civilian life is a high-risk period for suicide attempts (SAs). Although stressful life events (SLEs) faced by transitioning soldiers are thought to be implicated, systematic prospective evidence is lacking.

METHODS

Participants in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) completed baseline self-report surveys while on active duty in 2011-2014. Two self-report follow-up Longitudinal Surveys (LS1: 2016-2018; LS2: 2018-2019) were subsequently administered to probability subsamples of these baseline respondents. As detailed in a previous report, a SA risk index based on survey, administrative, and geospatial data collected before separation/deactivation identified 15% of the LS respondents who had separated/deactivated as being high-risk for self-reported post-separation/deactivation SAs. The current report presents an investigation of the extent to which self-reported SLEs occurring in the 12 months before each LS survey might have mediated/modified the association between this SA risk index and post-separation/deactivation SAs.

RESULTS

The 15% of respondents identified as high-risk had a significantly elevated prevalence of some post-separation/deactivation SLEs. In addition, the associations of some SLEs with SAs were significantly stronger among predicted high-risk than lower-risk respondents. Demographic rate decomposition showed that 59.5% (s.e. = 10.2) of the overall association between the predicted high-risk index and subsequent SAs was linked to these SLEs.

CONCLUSIONS

It might be possible to prevent a substantial proportion of post-separation/deactivation SAs by providing high-risk soldiers with targeted preventive interventions for exposure/vulnerability to commonly occurring SLEs.

Understanding changes in aggression among U.S. army soldiers: The role of trauma exposure during deployment

Aggression is one of the leading concerns reported by United States service members and veterans. Trauma and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms have emerged as key drivers of aggression. Research to date, however, has largely overlooked the effect of aggression on increasing risk of trauma exposure and subsequent PTSD. The current study addresses this gap by examining whether (a) pre-deployment aggression predicts trauma exposure on deployment and post-deployment PTSD, (b) trauma exposure on deployment and post-deployment PTSD predict post-deployment aggression, and (c) trauma exposure on deployment and post-deployment PTSD symptoms explain changes in aggressive behavior from pre-to post-deployment. Data from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) Pre/Post Deployment Study (PPDS) on nationally representative sample of 8558 Active-duty Army soldiers were analyzed. Results revealed positive correlations between pre-deployment aggression (assessed via items from the Joint Mental Health Advisory Team 7), trauma exposure on deployment (assessed via items from the Deployment Stress Scale), post-deployment PTSD symptoms (assessed via items from the civilian PTSD Checklist and PTSD Checklist for DSM-5), and post-deployment aggression. Further, pre-deployment aggression predicted trauma exposure on deployment and post-deployment PTSD; trauma exposure on deployment and post-deployment PTSD predicted post-deployment aggression; and changes in aggression from pre-to post-deployment were partially mediated by trauma exposure on deployment and post-deployment PTSD symptoms. Collectively, these findings highlight the utility of identifying and addressing pre-deployment aggression in mitigating trauma exposure and later psychopathology.

Prospective Association of Unmet Mental Health Treatment Needs With Suicidal Behavior Among Combat-Deployed Soldiers

OBJECTIVE

Military personnel frequently report discontinuing or not pursuing psychiatric treatment despite perceiving a need for services. This study aimed to examine how unmet need for treatment or support among U.S. Army soldiers relates to future suicidal ideation (SI) or suicide attempt (SA).

METHODS

Mental health treatment need and help seeking in the past 12 months were evaluated for soldiers (N=4,645) who subsequently deployed to Afghanistan. Weighted logistic regression models were used to examine the prospective association of predeployment treatment needs with SI and SA during and after deployment, with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Compared with soldiers without predeployment treatment needs, those who reported not seeking help despite needing it had increased risk for SI during deployment (adjusted OR [AOR]=1.73), past-30-day SI at 2-3 months postdeployment (AOR=2.08), past-30-day SI at 8-9 months postdeployment (AOR=2.01), and SA through 8-9 months postdeployment (AOR=3.65). Soldiers who sought help and stopped treatment without improvement had elevated SI risk at 2-3 months postdeployment (AOR=2.35). Those who sought help and stopped after improving did not have increased SI risk during or 2-3 months after deployment but had elevated risks for SI (AOR=1.71) and SA (AOR=3.43) by 8-9 months postdeployment. Risks for all suicidality outcomes were also elevated among soldiers who reported receiving ongoing treatment before deployment.

CONCLUSIONS

Unmet or ongoing needs for mental health treatment or support before deployment are associated with increased risk for suicidal behavior during and after deployment. Detecting and addressing treatment needs among soldiers before deployment may help prevent suicidality during deployment and reintegration periods.

Recent Stressful Experiences and Suicide Risk: Implications for Suicide Prevention and Intervention in U.S. Army Soldiers

Objectives

To identify the extent to which the presence of recent stressful events are risk factors for suicide among active-duty soldiers as reported by informants.

Methods

Next-of-kin (NOK) and supervisors (SUP) of active duty soldiers (n = 135) who died by suicide and two groups of living controls: propensity-matched (n = 128) and soldiers who reported suicidal ideation in the past year, but did not die (SI) (n = 108) provided data via structured interviews from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to create a risk score for suicide.

Results

The odds of suicide increased significantly for soldiers experiencing relationship problems, military punishment, and perceived failure or humiliation in the month prior to death. Suicide risk models with these risk factors predicted suicide death among those who reported SI in the past year (OR = 5.9, [95% CI = 1.5, 24.0] χ 2 = 6.24, p = 0.0125, AUC, 0.73 (0.7, 0.8) NOK) and (OR = 8.6, [95% CI = 1.4, 51.5] χ 2 = 5.49, p = 0.0191, AUC, 0.78 (0.7, 0.8); SUP) suggesting the combination of these recent stressors may contribute to the transition from ideation to action.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest for the first time recent stressors distinguished suicide ideating controls from suicide decedents in the month prior to death as reported by informants. Implications for preventive intervention efforts for clinicians, supervisors and family members in identifying the transition from ideation to action are discussed.

Trauma type as a risk factor for insomnia in a military population

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated whether lifetime traumatic stress compared to deployment-related traumatic stress differentially affected the likelihood of insomnia in military personnel.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (unweighted N = 21,499; weighted N = 670,335; 18-61 years; 13.5% Female). DSM-5 criteria were applied to the Brief Insomnia Questionnaire to determine past month insomnia diagnostic status. A lifetime stress survey was used to assess traumatic stress encountered outside of the military, and a deployment-related stress survey assessed for various types of deployment-related traumatic stress.

RESULTS

Adjusting for sex and psychiatric disorders, lifetime traumatic stress increased the prevalence for insomnia among those who endorsed combat death of close friend or relative, 1.021 (95% CI, 1.02-1.02), followed by those who reported other experiences that put them at risk of death or serious injury, 1.013 (95% CI, 1.01-1.01), whereas deployment-related traumatic stress showed that the prevalence for insomnia was highest for those who reported being sexually assaulted or raped, 1.059 (95% CI, 1.04-1.08), followed by those who endorsed being hazed or bullied by one or more members of their unit 1.042 (95% CI, 1.04-1.05).

LIMITATIONS

The cross-sectional nature of the assessment limits causal inferences and there was no clinician determined diagnosis for insomnia.

CONCLUSION

Findings suggest that traumas over both one's lifetime and during deployment are associated with a higher prevalence for insomnia among Army soldiers. Results highlight the importance of considering both lifetime and deployment traumas into mental health assessment and treatment for active-duty soldiers.

Predicting Homelessness Among U.S. Army Soldiers No Longer on Active Duty

INTRODUCTION

The ability to predict and prevent homelessness has been an elusive goal. The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model that identified U.S. Army soldiers at high risk of becoming homeless after transitioning to civilian life based on information available before the time of this transition.

METHODS

The prospective cohort study consisted of observations from 16,589 soldiers who were separated or deactivated from service and who had previously participated in 1 of 3 baseline surveys of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers in 2011-2014. A machine learning model was developed in a 70% training sample and evaluated in the remaining 30% test sample to predict self-reported homelessness in 1 of 2 Longitudinal Study surveys administered in 2016-2018 and 2018-2019. Predictors included survey, administrative, and geospatial variables available before separation/deactivation. Analysis was conducted in November 2020-May 2021.

RESULTS

The 12-month prevalence of homelessness was 2.9% (SE=0.2%) in the total Longitudinal Study sample. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the test sample was 0.78 (SE=0.02) for homelessness. The 4 highest ventiles (top 20%) of predicted risk included 61% of respondents with homelessness. Self-reported lifetime histories of depression, trauma of having a loved one murdered, and post-traumatic stress disorder were the 3 strongest predictors of homelessness.

CONCLUSIONS

A prediction model for homelessness can accurately target soldiers for preventive intervention before transition to civilian life.

Association of emotion reactivity and distress intolerance with suicide attempts in U.S. Army soldiers

INTRODUCTION

Emotion reactivity (ER) and distress intolerance (DI) may be associated with increased suicide attempt (SA) risk among U.S. Army soldiers.

METHOD

In this case-control study, 74 soldiers recently hospitalized for SA (cases) were compared with 133 control soldiers from the same Army installations selected based on either propensity score matching (n = 103) or reported 12-month suicide ideation (SI) (n = 30). Controls were weighted to represent the total Army population at the study sites and the subpopulation of 12-month ideators. Participants completed questionnaires assessing ER, DI, and other psychosocial variables. Logistic regression analyses examined whether ER and DI differentiated SA cases from the general population and from 12-month ideators before and after controlling for additional important risk factors (sociodemographic characteristics, stressors, mental disorders).

RESULTS

In univariate analyses, ER differentiated SA cases from both the general population (OR = 2.5[95%CI = 1.7-3.6]) and soldiers with 12-month SI (OR = 2.5[95%CI = 1.3-4.6]). DI also differentiated cases from the general population (OR = 2.9[95%CI = 2.0-4.1]) and 12-month ideators (OR = 1.9[95%CI = 1.1-3.5]). These associations persisted after controlling for sociodemographic variables, stressors, and mental disorders.

CONCLUSION

Findings provide evidence that higher ER and DI are associated with increased risk of SA among soldiers, even after adjusting for known risk factors. Prospective research with larger samples is needed.

Predicting suicide attempts among U.S. Army soldiers after leaving active duty using information available before leaving active duty: results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS)

Suicide risk is elevated among military service members who recently transitioned to civilian life. Identifying high-risk service members before this transition could facilitate provision of targeted preventive interventions. We investigated the feasibility of doing this by attempting to develop a prediction model for self-reported suicide attempts (SAs) after leaving or being released from active duty in the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS). This study included two self-report panel surveys (LS1: 2016-2018, LS2: 2018-2019) administered to respondents who previously participated while on active duty in one of three Army STARRS 2011-2014 baseline self-report surveys. We focus on respondents who left active duty >12 months before their LS survey (n = 8899). An ensemble machine learning model using predictors available prior to leaving active duty was developed in a 70% training sample and validated in a 30% test sample. The 12-month self-reported SA prevalence (SE) was 1.0% (0.1). Test sample AUC (SE) was 0.74 (0.06). The 15% of respondents with highest predicted risk included nearly two-thirds of 12-month SAs and over 80% of medically serious 12-month SAs. These results show that it is possible to identify soldiers at high post-transition self-report SA risk before the transition. Future model development is needed to examine prediction of SAs assessed by administrative data and using surveys administered closer to the time of leaving active duty.

Parental suicide attempt and subsequent risk of pre-enlistment suicide attempt among male and female new soldiers in the U.S. Army

OBJECTIVE

Suicide and suicide attempts among U.S. Army soldiers are a significant concern for public health. This study examined the association of parental suicide attempt prior to age 13 of the soldier with subsequent risk of pre-enlistment suicide attempt.

METHOD

We conducted secondary analyses of survey data from new soldiers who participated in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) (N = 38,396). A series of logistic regression analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Of all new soldiers, 1.4% reported that they attempted suicide between age 13 and entering the Army, and 2.3% reported a parental suicide attempt prior to age 13. Parental suicide attempt was associated with increased odds of subsequent suicide attempt; however, this association was moderated by gender and was significant only among male soldiers. The association between parental suicide attempt and pre-enlistment suicide attempt among male soldiers was still significant after controlling for socio-demographic characteristics, soldier/parental psychopathology, and childhood adversities.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight parental suicide attempt as a unique pre-enlistment risk factor for suicide attempt, especially among male new soldiers. Further studies are needed to separate the genetic and environmental contributions to intra-familial risk for suicidal behavior.

Attachment Style and Risk of Suicide Attempt Among New Soldiers in the U.S. Army

OBJECTIVE

Among U.S. Army soldiers suicide attempts (SAs) are a significant public health concern, particularly early in service. We examined the association of attachment style with SA and suicide ideation (SI) among U.S. Army soldiers.

METHODS

We analyzed survey data from new soldiers who participated in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). The sample consists of 38,507 soldiers entering Basic Combat Training (BCT) between April 2011 and November 2012. Attachment style (secure, preoccupied, fearful, and dismissing) was assessed using items from the Relationship Questionnaire. Lifetime (pre-enlistment) SA and SI were assessed with a modified Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale. Logistic regression analyses examined associations of attachment style with lifetime SA, SI, and attempts among ideators, after adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

The secure attachment style was associated with lower odds of SA (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.63-0.92), whereas preoccupied (OR = 4.63, 95% CI = 3.83-5.61), fearful (OR = 4.08, 95% CI = 3.38-4.94), or dismissing (OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.24-1.96) attachment styles were associated with higher odds of SA. Similar results were found for SI. Importantly, both preoccupied (OR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.37-2.04) and fearful (OR = 1.70, 95% CI = 1.38-2.08) attachment were associated with attempts among ideators.

CONCLUSION

These findings highlight the clinical importance of attachment style in predicting suicidal behavior and as possible targets for intervention. A critical next step is for prospective research to examine whether attachment style predicts future suicidal behavior.

Combat Deployment Experiences and Soldier Mental Health: Examining the Factor Structure of a Combat Experiences Scale

INTRODUCTION

Researchers and practitioners are invested in understanding how deployment experiences impact the nearly 193,000 U.S. service members who deploy in a given year. Yet, there remains a need to adequately identify salient deployment experiences through survey measurement tools and understand how differential experiences are uniquely related to mental health outcomes. Therefore, this study examined the factor structure of an established combat experiences measure from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Service members (Army STARRS) dataset to identify underlying survey constructs that reflect nuanced deployment experiences. Then, we examined the association between diverse combat experiences and current mental health symptoms (i.e., anxiety and depressive symptoms) and the mediating role of coping.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were drawn from the Army STARRS data (N = 14,860 soldiers), specifically the All Army Study component. A principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted to examine the dimensionality of the combat experiences scale, and then a path model was conducted to examine the relationships between combat experiences, coping with stress following a deployment, and mental health symptoms while controlling for relevant individual and interpersonal factors.

RESULTS

Results from the principal component analysis suggested that the Army STARRS combat experiences scale encompasses two components, specifically: "Expected combat experiences" and "Responsible for non-enemy deaths." Both "Expected combat experiences" and "Responsible for non-enemy deaths" were associated with higher levels of anxiety and depressive symptoms, respectively, and "Responsible for non-enemy deaths" was also indirectly linked to these mental health outcomes through coping with stress after deployment.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provide insight into the dimensionality of combat experiences and offer practitioners a more nuanced understanding of how to process unique combat experiences that differentially relate to mental health symptoms.

Social closeness and support are associated with lower risk of suicide among U.S. Army soldiers

OBJECTIVE

We tested the aspects of social support, unit cohesion, and religiosity hypothesized to be protective factors for suicide among U.S. service members.

METHODS

This case-control study compared U.S. Army soldiers who died by suicide while on active duty (n = 135) to controls of two types: those propensity score-matched on known sociodemographic risk factors (n = 128); and those controls who had thought about, but not died by, suicide in the past year (n = 108). Data included structured interviews of next of kin (NOK) and Army supervisors (SUP) for each case and control soldier. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine predictors of suicide.

RESULTS

Perceived social closeness and seeking help from others were associated with decreased odds of suicide, as reported by SUP (OR = 0.2 [95% CI = 0.1, 0.5]) and NOK (OR = 0.4 [95% CI = 0.2, 0.8]). Novel reports by SUP informants of high levels of unit cohesion/morale decreased odds of suicide (OR = 0.1 [95% CI = 0.0, 0.2]). Contrary to study hypotheses, no religious affiliation was associated with lower odds of suicide (OR = 0.3 [95% CI = 0.2, 0.6]).

CONCLUSIONS

Perceived social closeness and unit/group cohesion are associated with lower odds of suicide. These results point toward social intervention strategies as testable components of suicide prevention programs.

Pre-enlistment Anger Attacks and Postenlistment Mental Disorders and Suicidality Among US Army Soldiers

IMPORTANCE

Anger is linked to adverse outcomes in military populations; however, whether pre-enlistment anger attacks are associated with postenlistment mental disorders and suicidality is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the associations of pre-enlistment anger attacks with postenlistment mental health.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this observational cohort study, the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) New Soldier Study (NSS) surveyed soldiers entering basic training from April 2011 to November 2012, with a subsample recruited for wave 1 of the STARRS Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) (conducted September 2016 to April 2018). Participants were recruited from 3 US Army installations for the NSS survey. Those who were subsequently contacted for STARRS-LS completed the follow-up survey via web or telephone. Prospective analyses were based on a weighted NSS subsample included in wave 1 of STARRS-LS. Data were analyzed from May 22, 2020, to March 17, 2021.

EXPOSURES

History of anger attacks at baseline (NSS). Survey responses were used to classify new soldiers as having nonimpairing anger attacks (>2 attacks without interference in work or personal life), impairing anger attacks (>2 attacks with interference in work or personal life), or no significant history of anger attacks.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Baseline analyses examined sociodemographic and clinical correlates of a history of anger attacks. Prospective logistic regression models estimated associations of baseline history of anger attacks with new onset and persistence of posttraumatic stress disorder, major depressive disorder (MDD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), panic disorder, mania/hypomania, substance use disorder, suicidal ideation, and suicide attempt at wave 1 of STARRS-LS.

RESULTS

Of the 38 507 baseline participants (83.0% male and 17.0% female; mean [SD] age, 20.97 [3.57] years), 6216 were selected for and completed wave 1 of the STARRS-LS. Baseline prevalence (SE) of nonimpairing and impairing anger attacks was 8.83% (0.16%) and 5.75% (0.15%), respectively. Prospective models showed that impairing anger attacks were associated with new onset of MDD (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.98; 95% CI, 1.31-2.99), GAD (AOR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.66-3.45), panic disorder (AOR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.34-3.05), and suicidal ideation (AOR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.45-3.07). When baseline psychiatric comorbidity was controlled for, impairing attacks remained associated with onset of GAD (AOR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.19-2.58) and suicidal ideation (AOR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.09-2.42). Anger attacks were not significantly associated with persistence of pre-enlistment mental disorders.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this study suggest that a pre-enlistment history of impairing anger attacks may be associated with elevated risk of developing GAD, MDD, and suicidality after enlistment. Detection of impairing anger attacks could aid in assessing psychiatric risk in new soldiers.

Associations of Lifetime Traumatic Brain Injury Characteristics With Prospective Suicide Attempt Among Deployed US Army Soldiers

OBJECTIVE

To estimate associations of lifetime traumatic brain injury (TBI) characteristics with prospective suicide attempt among US Army soldiers.

METHOD

The Army STARRS (Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers) Pre/Post Deployment Study surveyed 3 Brigade Combat Teams that were deployed to Afghanistan in 2012. Lifetime TBI and past-month postconcussive/post-TBI symptoms were evaluated at predeployment baseline. Recency and number of TBIs were quantified, and TBI severity was classified on the basis of reports of alteration/loss of consciousness and memory lapse. Suicide attempt data came from administrative records and surveys administered after return from deployment. Logistic regression models estimated associations of TBI characteristics with prospective suicide attempt among baseline respondents who were deployed (n = 7677), adjusting for other risk factors including lifetime mental disorder.

RESULTS

One hundred three soldiers made a suicide attempt over a median follow-up period of 30 months (weighted prevalence = 1.31% [0.14%]). In the final model estimating joint associations of TBI severity/recency and past-month postconcussive/post-TBI symptoms, only postconcussive/post-TBI symptoms were associated with a higher risk of suicide attempt (per standard score increase: AOR [adjusted odds ratio] = 1.31; 95% CI, 1.05-1.63; P = .012).

CONCLUSIONS

Among the lifetime TBI characteristics evaluated at predeployment baseline, only past-month postconcussive/post-TBI symptoms were prospectively associated with an increased risk of suicide attempt following deployment. Detection of postconcussive/post-TBI symptoms could facilitate targeting of Army suicide prevention programs.

Self-injurious thoughts and behaviors that differentiate soldiers who attempt suicide from those with recent suicide ideation

BACKGROUND

Risk for suicide attempt (SA) versus suicide ideation (SI) is clinically important and difficult to differentiate. We examined whether a history of self-injurious thoughts and behaviors (SITBs) differentiates soldiers with a recent SA from nonattempting soldiers with current/recent SI.

METHODS

Using a unique case-control design, we administered the same questionnaire (assessing the history of SITBs and psychosocial variables) to representative U.S. Army soldiers recently hospitalized for SA (n = 132) and soldiers from the same Army installations who reported 30-day SI but did not make an attempt (n = 125). Logistic regression analyses examined whether SITBs differentiated attempters and ideators after controlling for previously identified covariates.

RESULTS

In separate models that weighted for systematic nonresponse and controlled for gender, education, posttraumatic stress disorder, and intermittent explosive disorder, SA was positively and significantly associated with the history of suicide plan and/or intention to act (odds ratio [OR] = 12.1 [95% confidence interval {CI} = 3.6-40.4]), difficulty controlling suicidal thoughts during the worst week of ideation (OR = 3.5 [95% CI = 1.1-11.3]), and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) (OR = 4.9 [95% CI = 1.3-18.0]). Area under the curve was 0.87 in a full model that combined these SITBs and covariates. The top ventile based on predicted risk had a sensitivity of 24.7%, specificity of 99.8%, and positive predictive value of 97.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

History of suicide plan/intention, difficult to control ideation, and NSSI differentiate soldiers with recent SA from those with current/recent SI independent of sociodemographic characteristics and mental disorders. Longitudinal research is needed to determine whether these factors are prospectively associated with the short-term transition from SI to SA.

Inequality and mental healthcare utilisation among first-year university students in South Africa

Background

Addressing inequalities in mental healthcare utilisation among university students is important for socio-political transformation, particularly in countries with a history of educational exclusion.

Methods

As part of the WHO World Mental Health International College Student Initiative, we investigated inequalities in mental healthcare utilisation among first-year students at two historically "White" universities in South Africa. Data were collected via a web-based survey from first-year university students (n = 1402) to assess 12-month mental healthcare utilisation, common mental disorders, and suicidality. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate associations between sociodemographic variables and mental healthcare utilisation, controlling for common mental disorders and suicidality.

Results

A total of 18.1% of students utilised mental healthcare in the past 12 months, with only 28.9% of students with mental disorders receiving treatment (ranging from 28.1% for ADHD to 64.3% for bipolar spectrum disorder). Of those receiving treatment, 52.0% used psychotropic medication, 47.3% received psychotherapy, and 5.4% consulted a traditional healer. Treatment rates for suicidal ideation, plan and attempt were 25.4%, 41.6% and 52.9%, respectively. In multivariate regression models that control for the main effects of mental health variables and all possible joint effects of sociodemographic variables, the likelihood of treatment was lower among males (aOR = 0.57) and Black students (aOR = 0.52). An interaction was observed between sexual orientation and first generation status; among second-generation students, the odds of treatment were higher for students reporting an atypical sexual orientation (aOR = 1.55), while among students with atypical sexual orientations, the likelihood of mental healthcare utilisation was lower for first-generation students (aOR = 0.29). Odds of treatment were significantly elevated among students with major depressive disorder (aOR = 1.88), generalised anxiety disorder (aOR = 2.34), bipolar spectrum disorder (aOR = 4.07), drug use disorder (aOR = 3.45), suicidal ideation (without plan or attempt) (aOR = 2.00), suicide plan (without attempt) (aOR = 3.64) and suicide attempt (aOR = 4.57). Likelihood of treatment increased with level of suicidality, but not number of mental disorders.

Conclusion

We found very low mental healthcare treatment utilisation among first-year university students in South Africa, with enduring disparities among historically marginalised groups. Campus-based interventions are needed to promote mental healthcare utilisation by first-year students in South Africa, especially among male and Black students and first-generation students with atypical sexual orientations.

Factors Associated With Suicide Ideation in US Army Soldiers During Deployment in Afghanistan

IMPORTANCE

Understanding suicide ideation (SI) during combat deployment can inform prevention and treatment during and after deployment.

OBJECTIVE

To examine associations of sociodemographic characteristics, lifetime and past-year stressors, and mental disorders with 30-day SI among a representative sample of US Army soldiers deployed in Afghanistan.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this survey study, soldiers deployed to Afghanistan completed self-administered questionnaires in July 2012. The sample was weighted to represent all 87 032 soldiers serving in Afghanistan. Prevalence of lifetime, past-year, and 30-day SI and mental disorders was determined. Logistic regression analyses examined risk factors associated with SI. Data analyses for this study were conducted between August 2018 and August 2019.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Suicide ideation, lifetime and 12-month stressors, and mental disorders were assessed with questionnaires. Administrative records identified sociodemographic characteristics and suicide attempts.

RESULTS

A total of 3957 soldiers (3473 [weighted 87.5%] male; 2135 [weighted 52.6%] aged ≤29 years) completed self-administered questionnaires during their deployment in Afghanistan. Lifetime, past-year, and 30-day SI prevalence estimates were 11.7%, 3.0%, and 1.9%, respectively. Among soldiers with SI, 44.2% had major depressive disorder (MDD) and 19.3% had posttraumatic stress disorder in the past 30-day period. A series of analyses of the 23 grouped variables potentially associated with SI resulted in a final model of sex; race/ethnicity; lifetime noncombat trauma; past 12-month relationship problems, legal problems, and death or illness of a friend or family member; and MDD. In this final multivariable model, white race/ethnicity (odds ratio [OR], 3.1 [95% CI, 1.8-5.1]), lifetime noncombat trauma (OR, 2.1 [95% CI, 1.1-4.0]), and MDD (past 30 days: OR, 31.8 [95% CI, 15.0-67.7]; before past 30 days: OR, 4.9 [95% CI, 2.5-9.6]) were associated with SI. Among the 85 soldiers with past 30-day SI, from survey administration through 12 months after returning from deployment, 6% (5 participants) had a documented suicide attempt vs 0.14% (6 participants) of the 3872 soldiers without SI.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study suggests that major depressive disorder and noncombat trauma are important factors in identifying SI risk during combat deployment.

Psychological Problems among 12th-Grade Students Predicting Military Enlistment: Findings from the Monitoring the Future Survey

Objective: Rates of some psychological disorders are higher among enlisted U.S. military personnel than socio-demographically matched civilians. Indirect evidence suggests some internalizing and externalizing psychological problems among enlistees onset prior to enlistment. However, the consistency and strength of the associations between pre-enlistment psychological problems and enlistment over time is unknown. We address this uncertainty by examining whether internalizing and externalizing problems in high school predicted subsequent military enlistment using a large cohort-sequential panel study. Method: The Monitoring the Future study administered baseline surveys from 1989-2014 and biennial follow-up surveys two and four years later to national samples of high-school seniors (N = 20,823). Validated self-report scales assessed internalizing (depression, low self-esteem) and externalizing (risk-taking, school misbehavior, conduct disorder, interpersonal violence, alcohol, and drug use) problems in each survey. Follow-up surveys assessed military enlistment. Logistic regression models were used to estimate associations of problems scales with subsequent enlistment. Results: School misbehavior in 12th grade, and risk-taking in 12th grade and two years after graduation were associated with significantly elevated odds of enlistment at follow-up. Although modest, these associations were linear and invariant across respondent sex and baseline survey year. Conclusions: School misbehavior and risk-taking predicted subsequent enlistment and there was no evidence of historical changes in these associations over the course of 25 years; these pre-enlistment psychological problems do not fully explain the high rates of psychological disorders among enlisted military personnel. Further research is needed to determine whether these predictors are associated with negative outcomes during or after military service.

Insomnia prevalence among U.S. Army soldiers with history of TBI

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE

To determine the rate of insomnia among active-duty soldiers with and without a history of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Research Method and Design: Data were extracted from the All Army Study (AAS), a cross-sectional, self-report survey completed by a representative sample of 21,499 U.S. Army soldiers from 2011 to 2013 as part of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers. History and severity of TBI were determined by participants' responses to questions regarding postinjury symptomology (i.e., loss of consciousness [LOC], amnesia, etc.). Insomnia symptoms were defined using DSM-5 criteria as measured by the Brief Insomnia Questionnaire.

RESULTS

Approximately 63% of respondents reported lifetime history of mild TBI (mTBI), with ∼7% endorsing a history of moderate to severe TBI. Insomnia symptom prevalence rate increased with brain injury severity and number of TBIs with LOC, with ∼51% of those with mTBI and ∼55% of those with moderate to severe TBI demonstrating clinically elevated insomnia symptoms, compared to ∼37% insomnia prevalence rate among servicemembers without TBI.

CONCLUSION/IMPLICATIONS

Results suggest high (> 50%) prevalence rates of insomnia symptoms among servicemembers with a lifetime history of brain injury, underscoring the need for behavioral sleep medicine interventions among active-duty personnel. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Psychiatric Risk Assessment from the Clinician's Perspective: Lessons for the Future

Accurate prediction of risk-states in Serious Mental Illnesses (SMIs) is critical for reducing their massive societal burden. Risk-state assessments are notably inaccurate. Recent innovations, including widely available and inexpensive mobile technologies for ambulatory "biobehavioral" data, can reshape risk assessment. To help understand and accelerate clinician involvement, we surveyed 90 multi-disciplinary clinicians serving SMI populations in various settings to evaluate how risk assessment is conducted and can improve. Clinicians reported considerable variability in conducting risk assessment, and few clinicians explicated their procedures beyond tying it to broader mental status examinations or interviews. Very few clinicians endorsed using currently-available standardized risk measures, and most reported low confidence in their utility. Clinicians also reported spending approximately half the time conducting individual risk assessments than optimally needed. When asked about improvement, virtually no clinicians acknowledged biobehavioral, objective technologies, or ambulatory recording. Overall, clinicians seemed unaware of meaningful ways to improve risk assessment.

Developing an optimal short-form of the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5)

BACKGROUND

Although several short-forms of the posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) Checklist (PCL) exist, all were developed using heuristic methods. This report presents the results of analyses designed to create an optimal short-form PCL for DSM-5 (PCL-5) using both machine learning and conventional scale development methods.

METHODS

The short-form scales were developed using independent datasets collected by the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience among Service members. We began by using a training dataset (n = 8,917) to fit short-form scales with between 1 and 8 items using different statistical methods (exploratory factor analysis, stepwise logistic regression, and a new machine learning method to find an optimal integer-scored short-form scale) to predict dichotomous PTSD diagnoses determined using the full PCL-5. A smaller subset of best short-form scales was then evaluated in an independent validation sample (n = 11,728) to select one optimal short-form scale based on multiple operating characteristics (area under curve [AUC], calibration, sensitivity, specificity, net benefit).

RESULTS

Inspection of AUCs in the training sample and replication in the validation sample led to a focus on 4-item integer-scored short-form scales selected with stepwise regression. Brier scores in the validation sample showed that a number of these scales had comparable calibration (0.015-0.032) and AUC (0.984-0.994), but that one had consistently highest net benefit across a plausible range of decision thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS

The recommended 4-item integer-scored short-form PCL-5 generates diagnoses that closely parallel those of the full PCL-5, making it well-suited for screening.

Non-suicidal self-injury prevalence, course, and association with suicidal thoughts and behaviors in two large, representative samples of US Army soldiers

BACKGROUND

Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) prospectively predicts suicidal thoughts and behaviors in civilian populations. Despite high rates of suicide among US military members, little is known about the prevalence and course of NSSI, or how NSSI relates to suicidal thoughts and behaviors, in military personnel.

METHODS

We conducted secondary analyses of two representative surveys of active-duty soldiers (N = 21 449) and newly enlisted soldiers (N = 38 507) from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

RESULTS

The lifetime prevalence of NSSI is 6.3% (1.2% 12-month prevalence) in active-duty soldiers and 7.9% (1.3% 12-month prevalence) in new soldiers. Demographic risk factors for lifetime NSSI include female sex, younger age, non-Hispanic white ethnicity, never having married, and lower educational attainment. The association of NSSI with temporally primary internalizing and externalizing disorders varies by service history (new v. active-duty soldiers) and gender (men v. women). In both active-duty and new soldiers, NSSI is associated with increased odds of subsequent onset of suicidal ideation [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.66-1.81] and suicide attempts (adjusted OR = 2.02-2.43), although not with the transition from ideation to attempt (adjusted OR = 0.92-1.36). Soldiers with a history of NSSI are more likely to have made multiple suicide attempts, compared with soldiers without NSSI.

CONCLUSIONS

NSSI is prevalent among US Army soldiers and is associated with significantly increased odds of later suicidal thoughts and behaviors, even after NSSI has resolved. Suicide risk assessments in military populations should screen for history of NSSI.

Transition to suicide attempt from recent suicide ideation in U.S. Army soldiers: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

BACKGROUND

Most people with suicide ideation (SI) do not attempt suicide (SA). Understanding the transition from current/recent SI to SA is important for mental health care. Our objective was to identify characteristics that differentiate SA from 30-day SI among representative U.S. Army soldiers.

METHODS

Using a unique case-control design, soldiers recently hospitalized for SA (n = 132) and representative soldiers from the same four communities (n = 10,193) were administered the same questionnaire. We systematically identified variables that differentiated suicide attempters from the total population, then examined whether those same variables differentiated all 30-day ideators (n = 257) from the total population and attempters from nonattempting 30-day ideators.

RESULTS

In univariable analyses, 20 of 23 predictors were associated with SA in the total population (0.05 level). The best multivariable model included eight significant predictors: interpersonal violence, relationship problems, major depressive disorder, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and substance use disorder (all having positive associations), as well as past 12-month combat trauma, intermittent explosive disorder (IED), and any college education (all having negative associations). Six of these differentiated 30-day ideators from the population. Three differentiated attempters from ideators: past 30-day PTSD (OR = 6.7 [95% CI = 1.1-39.4]), past 30-day IED (OR = 0.2 [95% CI = 0.1-0.5]), and any college education (OR = 0.1 [95% CI = 0.0-0.6]). The 5% of ideators with highest predicted risk in this final model included 20.9% of attempters, a four-fold concentration of risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Prospective army research examining transition from SI to SA should consider PTSD, IED, and education. Combat exposure did not differentiate attempters from ideators. Many SA risk factors in the Army population are actually risk factors for SI.

Utilization of and barriers to treatment among suicide decedents: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience Among Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

OBJECTIVE

To examine suicide decedents' use of mental health treatment and perceived barriers to initiating and maintaining treatment.

METHOD

We used a psychological autopsy study conducted as part of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience Among Servicemembers (Army STARRS) that compared suicide decedents (n = 135) to soldiers in two control conditions: those propensity-score-matched on known sociodemographic and Army history variables (n = 137) and those with a history of suicidal thoughts in the past 12 months (n = 118). Informants were next of kin and Army supervisors.

RESULTS

Results revealed that suicide decedents were significantly more likely to be referred to services and to use more intensive treatments (e.g., medication, overnight stay in hospital) than propensity-matched controls. However, decedents also were more likely to perceive significant barriers to treatment-seeking. All differences observed in the current study were between propensity-matched controls and decedents, with no observed differences between suicide ideators and decedents.

CONCLUSIONS

Many suicide decedents used some form of mental health care at some point in their lives; however, they also were more likely than propensity-matched controls to perceive barriers that may have prevented service use. The lack of differences between suicide ideators and decedents suggests that more information is needed, beyond knowledge of treatment utilization or perceived barriers, to identify and intervene on those at highest risk for suicide. These findings underscore the importance of reducing attitudinal barriers that may deter suicidal soldiers from seeking treatment, and also improving risk detection among those who are attending treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Nicotine Dependence and Pre-Enlistment Suicidal Behavior Among U.S. Army Soldiers

INTRODUCTION

Identification of modifiable risk factors for suicidal behaviors is a priority for the U.S. Army. This study investigated associations of nicotine dependence with suicidal behaviors among incoming soldiers.

METHODS

Lifetime DSM-IV nicotine dependence, mental disorders, suicidal behaviors, and their ages of onset were retrospectively assessed in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) New Soldier Study. Discrete-time survival analysis of person-year data from 30,436 soldiers was performed to evaluate associations of nicotine dependence with subsequent suicidal ideation, plans, and attempts. Among respondents with lifetime ideation (n=4,060), models tested associations of nicotine dependence with progression from ideation to first onset of plan, from plan to first attempt, and, among ideators without plans, from ideation to first unplanned attempt. A hierarchy of models incorporated increasing controls for other risk factors. Data were collected in 2011-2012 and analyzed in 2017-2018.

RESULTS

In models controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, nicotine dependence was associated with onset of all suicidal behaviors (AORs, 2.07-4.08, p<0.001) and with each type of progression of suicidal behavior (AORs, 1.48-2.44, p<0.005). After adjusting for childhood adversities and mental disorders, nicotine dependence remained associated with onset of ideation (AOR=1.27, 95% CI=1.10, 1.46, p=0.001) and attempt (AOR=1.83, 95% CI=1.41, 2.37, p<0.001); and with progression from ideation to unplanned attempt (AOR=2.03, 95% CI=1.17, 1.74, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Nicotine dependence exhibited associations with onset of suicidal ideation and suicide attempt-and with progression from ideation to unplanned attempt-that were independent of other measured risk factors. Awareness of associations of nicotine dependence with suicidal behaviors may inform risk assessment, facilitate targeting of prevention efforts, and provide further impetus for reducing nicotine dependence.

The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS): progress toward understanding suicide among soldiers

Responding to an unprecedented increase in the suicide rate among soldiers, in 2008 the US Army and US National Institute of Mental Health funded the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS), a multicomponent epidemiological and neurobiological study of risk and resilience factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors, and their psychopathological correlates among Army personnel. Using a combination of administrative records, representative surveys, computerized neurocognitive tests, and blood samples, Army STARRS and its longitudinal follow-up study (STARRS-LS) are designed to identify potentially actionable findings to inform the Army's suicide prevention efforts. The current report presents a broad overview of Army STARRS and its findings to date on suicide deaths, attempts, and ideation, as well as other important outcomes that may increase suicide risk (e.g., mental disorders, sexual assault victimization). The findings highlight the complexity of environmental and genetic risk and protective factors in different settings and contexts, and the importance of life and career history in understanding suicidal thoughts and behaviors.

Patterns and predictors of persistence of suicide ideation: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

Persistent suicide ideation (SI) is known to be a risk factor for subsequent suicidal behaviors. Reducing SI persistence among people with a history of SI consequently might be a useful target for preventive intervention; however, basic information is lacking about patterns and predictors of SI persistence. We report preliminary retrospective data on annual SI persistence in a representative sample of 3,501 U.S. Army soldiers with lifetime SI from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). Reports about age-of-onset and number of years with SI were used to estimate two definitions of persistence: persistence beyond year-of-onset and proportional annual persistence (i.e., percentage of years with SI since year-of-onset). Results revealed that for 47.8% of respondents with lifetime SI, their SI did not persist beyond the year-of-onset. For the 52.2% whose SI did persist beyond the year-of-onset, the median (interquartile range) proportional annual persistence was 33% (17-67%). Significant predictors of increased persistence were different for respondents with preenlistment SI onset (prior histories of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder [ADHD], bipolar disorder, and panic disorder) and postenlistment SI onset (male, combat support military occupation specialty, prior histories of ADHD, panic disorder, and posttraumatic stress disorder). These predictors of persistence are different from the predictors of SI onset, suggesting that secondary preventive interventions to reduce SI persistence may need to focus on different factors than primary preventive interventions to reduce SI onset. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Prevalence, predictors and correlates of insomnia in US army soldiers

The objective of this study was to investigate the rates, predictors and correlates of insomnia in a national sample of US Army soldiers. Data were gathered from the cross-sectional survey responses of the All-Army Study, of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Service members. Participants were a representative sample of 21 499 US Army soldiers who responded to the All-Army Study self-administered questionnaire between 2011 and 2013. Insomnia was defined by selected DSM-5 criteria using the Brief Insomnia Questionnaire. The results highlight significant functional difficulties associated with insomnia among US soldiers, as well as insights into predictors of insomnia specific to this population. Insomnia was present in 22.76% of the sample. Predictors of insomnia status in logistic regression included greater number of current mental health disorders, less perceived open lines of communication with leadership, less unit member support and less education. Insomnia had global, negative associations with health, social functioning, support, morale, work performance and Army career intentions. The results provide the strongest evidence to-date that insomnia is common in a military population, and is associated with a wide array of negative factors in the domains of health, military readiness and intentions to remain in military careers.

Predictive validity and correlates of self-assessed resilience among U.S. Army soldiers

BACKGROUND

Self-assessment of resilience could prove valuable to military and other organizations whose personnel confront foreseen stressors. We evaluated the validity of self-assessed resilience among U.S. Army soldiers, including whether predeployment perceived resilience predicted postdeployment emotional disorder.

METHODS

Resilience was assessed via self-administered questionnaire among new soldiers reporting for basic training (N = 35,807) and experienced soldiers preparing to deploy to Afghanistan (N = 8,558). Concurrent validity of self-assessed resilience was evaluated among recruits by estimating its association with past-month emotional disorder. Predictive validity was examined among 3,526 experienced soldiers with no lifetime emotional disorder predeployment. Predictive models estimated associations of predeployment resilience with incidence of emotional disorder through 9 months postdeployment and with marked improvement in coping at 3 months postdeployment. Weights-adjusted regression models incorporated stringent controls for risk factors.

RESULTS

Soldiers characterized themselves as very resilient on average [M = 14.34, SD = 4.20 (recruits); M = 14.75, SD = 4.31 (experienced soldiers); theoretical range = 0-20]. Demographic characteristics exhibited only modest associations with resilience, while severity of childhood maltreatment was negatively associated with resilience in both samples. Among recruits, resilience was inversely associated with past-month emotional disorder [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.62-0.68, P < .0005 (per standard score increase)]. Among deployed soldiers, greater predeployment resilience was associated with decreased incidence of emotional disorder (AOR = 0.91; 95% CI = 0.84-0.98; P = .016) and increased odds of improved coping (AOR = 1.36; 95% CI = 1.24-1.49; P < .0005) postdeployment.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings supported validity of self-assessed resilience among soldiers, although its predictive effect on incidence of emotional disorder was modest. In conjunction with assessment of known risk factors, measurement of resilience could help predict adaptation to foreseen stressors like deployment.

Psychological autopsy study comparing suicide decedents, suicide ideators, and propensity score matched controls: results from the study to assess risk and resilience in service members (Army STARRS)

BACKGROUND

The suicide rate has increased significantly among US Army soldiers over the past decade. Here we report the first results from a large psychological autopsy study using two control groups designed to reveal risk factors for suicide death among soldiers beyond known sociodemographic factors and the presence of suicide ideation.

METHODS

Informants were next-of-kin and Army supervisors for: 135 suicide cases, 137 control soldiers propensity-score-matched on known sociodemographic risk factors for suicide and Army history variables, and 118 control soldiers who reported suicide ideation in the past year.

RESULTS

Results revealed that most (79.3%) soldiers who died by suicide have a prior mental disorder; mental disorders in the prior 30-days were especially strong risk factors for suicide death. Approximately half of suicide decedents tell someone that they are considering suicide. Virtually all of the risk factors identified in this study differed between suicide cases and propensity-score-matched controls, but did not significantly differ between suicide cases and suicide ideators. The most striking difference between suicides and ideators was the presence in the former of an internalizing disorder (especially depression) and multi-morbidity (i.e. 3+ disorders) in the past 30 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Most soldiers who die by suicide have identifiable mental disorders shortly before their death and tell others about their suicidal thinking, suggesting that there are opportunities for prevention and intervention. However, few risk factors distinguish between suicide ideators and decedents, pointing to an important direction for future research.

A Risk Algorithm for the Persistence of Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors During College

OBJECTIVE

The primary aims of this study are to (a) identify patterns of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) during college among students with lifetime pre-matriculation STB and (b) develop a risk-screening algorithm for persistence of pre-matriculation STB during college.

METHODS

Data come from the Leuven College Surveys, a series of prospective cohort studies of all incoming KU Leuven University freshmen. In the academic year 2012-2013, 4,889 incoming freshmen (73.2% response rate) provided baseline data on sociodemographic variables, childhood-adolescent traumatic experiences, 12-month stressful experiences, 12-month mental disorders, 12-month STB, and severity markers of pre-matriculation STB. A total of 2,566 students (69.3% conditional response rate) participated in 12- and 24-month follow-up surveys during the first 2 college years.

RESULTS

Thirteen percent (weighted n = 535) of incoming freshmen reported lifetime pre-matriculation STB. Of those, 28.0% reported 12-month STB in 1 follow-up assessment, and another 27.7%, in both follow-up assessments. High persistence of STB (ie, 12-month STB in 2 follow-up assessments) was most strongly associated with severity markers of pre-matriculation STB, with odds ratios in the 2.4-10.3 range and population attributable risk proportions between 9.2% and 50.8%. When the aim was for less than 50% of false-positive cases (positive predictive value = 54.4%), a multivariate predictive risk algorithm (cross-validated area under the curve = 0.79) situated 59.9% of highly persistent cases among the 30% respondents with highest baseline predicted risk.

CONCLUSIONS

An individualized web-based screening approach is a promising strategy to identify students at the time of university entrance who may be at high risk for STB persistence during their academic career.

Developing a Risk Model to Target High-risk Preventive Interventions for Sexual Assault Victimization among Female U.S. Army Soldiers

Sexual violence victimization is a significant problem among female U.S. military personnel. Preventive interventions for high-risk individuals might reduce prevalence, but would require accurate targeting. We attempted to develop a targeting model for female Regular U.S. Army soldiers based on theoretically-guided predictors abstracted from administrative data records. As administrative reports of sexual assault victimization are known to be incomplete, parallel machine learning models were developed to predict administratively-recorded (in the population) and self-reported (in a representative survey) victimization. Capture-recapture methods were used to combine predictions across models. Key predictors included low status, crime involvement, and treated mental disorders. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was .83-.88. 33.7-63.2% of victimizations occurred among soldiers in the highest-risk ventile (5%). This high concentration of risk suggests that the models could be useful in targeting preventive interventions, although final determination would require careful weighing of intervention costs, effectiveness, and competing risks.

Measurement of latent cognitive abilities involved in concept identification learning

INTRODUCTION

We used cognitive and psychometric modeling techniques to evaluate the construct validity and measurement precision of latent cognitive abilities measured by a test of concept identification learning: the Penn Conditional Exclusion Test (PCET).

METHOD

Item response theory parameters were embedded within classic associative- and hypothesis-based Markov learning models and were fitted to 35,553 Army soldiers' PCET data from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

RESULTS

Data were consistent with a hypothesis-testing model with multiple latent abilities-abstraction and set shifting. Latent abstraction ability was positively correlated with number of concepts learned, and latent set-shifting ability was negatively correlated with number of perseverative errors, supporting the construct validity of the two parameters. Abstraction was most precisely assessed for participants with abilities ranging from 1.5 standard deviations below the mean to the mean itself. Measurement of set shifting was acceptably precise only for participants making a high number of perseverative errors.

CONCLUSIONS

The PCET precisely measures latent abstraction ability in the Army STARRS sample, especially within the range of mildly impaired to average ability. This precision pattern is ideal for a test developed to measure cognitive impairment as opposed to cognitive strength. The PCET also measures latent set-shifting ability, but reliable assessment is limited to the impaired range of ability, reflecting that perseverative errors are rare among cognitively healthy adults. Integrating cognitive and psychometric models can provide information about construct validity and measurement precision within a single analytical framework.

Suicide Prevention

Suicide is a public health problem affecting people across the lifespan. It is currently the 10th leading cause of death, with rates having remained relatively flat for the past century. This article summarizes the problem of suicide and suicidal behavior along with suicide prevention efforts in the United States. Part 1 provides an overview of the epidemiology of suicide, including groups most at risk of suicide and suicidal behavior. Part 2 provides a review of common risk factors, organized by developmental life stage. A brief discussion of the lesser well-researched area of protective factors follows. Part 3 provides an overview of suicide prevention today, including the major types of prevention strategies, their successes, including means restriction, quality improvement in behavioral services, and comprehensive programs; and limitations to date, such as a lack of evidence for impact on actual deaths or behavior, small sample sizes, and low base rates. Finally, part 4 discusses challenges and future directions with an eye toward the great many opportunities that exist for prevention.

Thirty-day prevalence of DSM-IV mental disorders among nondeployed soldiers in the US Army: results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

IMPORTANCE

Although high rates of current mental disorder are known to exist in the US Army, little is known about the proportions of these disorders that had onsets prior to enlistment.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the proportions of 30-day DSM-IV mental disorders among nondeployed US Army personnel with first onsets prior to enlistment and the extent which role impairments associated with 30-day disorders differ depending on whether the disorders had pre- vs post-enlistment onsets.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A representative sample of 5428 soldiers participating in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers completed self-administered questionnaires and consented to linkage of questionnaire responses with administrative records.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Thirty-day DSM-IV internalizing (major depressive, bipolar, generalized anxiety, panic, and posttraumatic stress) and externalizing (attention-deficit/hyperactivity, intermittent explosive, alcohol/drug) disorders were assessed with validated self-report scales. Age at onset was assessed retrospectively. Role impairment was assessed with a modified Sheehan Disability Scale.

RESULTS

A total of 25.1% of respondents met criteria for any 30-day disorder (15.0% internalizing; 18.4% externalizing) and 11.1% for multiple disorders. A total of 76.6% of cases reported pre-enlistment age at onset of at least one 30-day disorder (49.6% internalizing; 81.7% externalizing). Also, 12.8% of respondents reported severe role impairment. Controlling for sociodemographic and Army career correlates, which were broadly consistent with other studies, 30-day disorders with pre-enlistment (χ₈² = 131.8, P < .001) and post-enlistment (χ₇² = 123.8, P < .001) ages at onset both significantly predicted severe role impairment, although pre-enlistment disorders were more consistent powerful predictors (7 of 8 disorders significant; odds ratios, 1.6-11.4) than post-enlistment disorders (5 of 7 disorders significant; odds ratios, 1.5-7.7). Population-attributable risk proportions of severe role impairment were 21.7% for pre-enlistment disorders, 24.3% for post-enlistment disorders, and 43.4% for all disorders.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Interventions to limit accession or increase resilience of new soldiers with pre-enlistment mental disorders might reduce prevalence and impairments of mental disorders in the US Army.

Prevalence and correlates of suicidal behavior among soldiers: results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

IMPORTANCE

The suicide rate among US Army soldiers has increased substantially in recent years.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the lifetime prevalence and sociodemographic, Army career, and psychiatric predictors of suicidal behaviors among nondeployed US Army soldiers.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A representative cross-sectional survey of 5428 nondeployed soldiers participating in a group self-administered survey.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Lifetime suicidal ideation, suicide plans, and suicide attempts.

RESULTS

The lifetime prevalence estimates of suicidal ideation, suicide plans, and suicide attempts are 13.9%, 5.3%, and 2.4%. Most reported cases (47.0%-58.2%) had pre-enlistment onsets. Pre-enlistment onset rates were lower than in a prior national civilian survey (with imputed/simulated age at enlistment), whereas post-enlistment onsets of ideation and plans were higher, and post-enlistment first attempts were equivalent to civilian rates. Most reported onsets of plans and attempts among ideators (58.3%-63.3%) occur within the year of onset of ideation. Post-enlistment attempts are positively related to being a woman (with an odds ratio [OR] of 3.3 [95% CI, 1.5-7.5]), lower rank (OR = 5.8 [95% CI, 1.8-18.1]), and previously deployed (OR = 2.4-3.7) and are negatively related to being unmarried (OR = 0.1-0.8) and assigned to Special Operations Command (OR = 0.0 [95% CI, 0.0-0.0]). Five mental disorders predict post-enlistment first suicide attempts in multivariate analysis: pre-enlistment panic disorder (OR = 0.1 [95% CI, 0.0-0.8]), pre-enlistment posttraumatic stress disorder (OR = 0.1 [95% CI, 0.0-0.7]), post-enlistment depression (OR = 3.8 [95% CI, 1.2-11.6]), and both pre- and post-enlistment intermittent explosive disorder (OR = 3.7-3.8). Four of these 5 ORs (posttraumatic stress disorder is the exception) predict ideation, whereas only post-enlistment intermittent explosive disorder predicts attempts among ideators. The population-attributable risk proportions of lifetime mental disorders predicting post-enlistment suicide attempts are 31.3% for pre-enlistment onset disorders, 41.2% for post-enlistment onset disorders, and 59.9% for all disorders.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The fact that approximately one-third of post-enlistment suicide attempts are associated with pre-enlistment mental disorders suggests that pre-enlistment mental disorders might be targets for early screening and intervention. The possibility of higher fatality rates among Army suicide attempts than among civilian suicide attempts highlights the potential importance of means control (ie, restricting access to lethal means [such as firearms]) as a suicide prevention strategy.

Commentary on "The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)": Army STARRS: a Framingham-like study of psychological health risk factors in soldiers

Although historically the Army suicide rate has been significantly lower than the civilian rate, in 2004, the suicide and accidental death rates began trending upward. By 2008, the Army suicide rate had risen above the national average (20.2 per 100,000). In 2009, 160 active duty Soldiers took their lives, making suicide the third leading cause of death among the Army population. If accidental death, frequently the result of high-risk behavior, is included, then more Soldiers died by their own actions than in combat in 2009. The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) was thus created in 2009 to begin to address these problems. The Army STARRS project is a large consortium of seven different studies to develop data-driven methods for mitigating or preventing suicide behaviors and improving the overall mental health and behavioral functioning of Army Soldiers during and after their Army service. The first research articles from the Army STARRS project were published in late 2013 and early 2014. This work has already begun to outline important facets of risk in the military, and it is helping to drive an empirically derived approach to improvements in understanding mental disorders and risk behavior and to improve prevention and support of mental health and resilience. The Framingham Heart Study, started in the 1940s, marked a watershed event in utilizing large cross-sectional and prospective longitudinal collaborative research to identify and understand risk factors for cardiovascular disease. The Army STARRS project, through its collaborative, prospective, and robust innovative design and implementation, may provide the beginning of a similar scientific cohort in mental disorders. The work of this project will help understand biological and psychological aspects of military service, including those leading to suicide. When coupled with timely feedback to Army leadership, it permits near real-time steps to diagnose, mitigate, and manage emerging mental health issues and the root causes of risk and resilience in Army Soldiers, with potential impact extending across many traumatized populations-not unlike a parallel process that has markedly improved survival and recovery from physical combat wounds.

The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

IMPORTANCE/OBJECTIVE: Although the suicide rate in the U.S. Army has traditionally been below age-gender matched civilian rates, it has climbed steadily since the beginning of the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts and since 2008 has exceeded the demographically matched civilian rate. The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) is a multicomponent epidemiological and neurobiological study designed to generate actionable evidence-based recommendations to reduce Army suicides and increase knowledge about risk and resilience factors for suicidality and its psychopathological correlates. This paper presents an overview of the Army STARRS component study designs and of recent findings. DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS/INTERVENTION: Army STARRS includes six main component studies: (1) the Historical Administrative Data Study (HADS) of Army and Department of Defense (DoD) administrative data systems (including records of suicidal behaviors) for all soldiers on active duty 2004-2009 aimed at finding administrative record predictors of suicides; (2) retrospective case-control studies of fatal and nonfatal suicidal behaviors (each planned to have n = 150 cases and n = 300 controls); (3) a study of new soldiers (n = 50,765 completed surveys) assessed just before beginning basic combat training (BCT) with self-administered questionnaires (SAQ), neurocognitive tests, and blood samples; (4) a cross-sectional study of approximately 35,000 (completed SAQs) soldiers representative of all other (i.e., exclusive of BCT) active duty soldiers; (5) a pre-post deployment study (with blood samples) of soldiers in brigade combat teams about to deploy to Afghanistan (n = 9,421 completed baseline surveys), with sub-samples assessed again one, three, and nine months after returning from deployment; and (6) a pilot study to follow-up SAQ respondents transitioning to civilian life. Army/DoD administrative data are being linked prospectively to the large-scale survey samples to examine predictors of subsequent suicidality and related mental health outcomes.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Measures (self-report and administratively recorded) of suicidal behaviors and their psychopathological correlates.

RESULTS

Component study cooperation rates are comparatively high. Sample biases are relatively small. Inefficiencies introduced into parameter estimates by using nonresponse adjustment weights and time-space clustering are small. Initial findings show that the suicide death rate, which rose over 2004-2009, increased for those deployed, those never deployed, and those previously deployed. Analyses of administrative records show that those deployed or previously deployed were at greater suicide risk. Receiving a waiver to enter the Army was not associated with increased risk. However, being demoted in the past two years was associated with increased risk. Time in current deployment, length of time since return from most recent deployment, total number of deployments, and time interval between most recent deployments (known as dwell time) were not associated with suicide risk. Initial analyses of survey data show that 13.9% of currently active non-deployed regular Army soldiers considered suicide at some point in their lifetime, while 5.3% had made a suicide plan, and 2.4% had attempted suicide. Importantly, 47-60% of these outcomes first occurred prior to enlistment. Prior mental disorders, in particular major depression and intermittent explosive disorder, were the strongest predictors of these self-reported suicidal behaviors. Most onsets of plans-attempts among ideators (58.3-63.3%) occurred within the year of onset of ideation. About 25.1% of non-deployed U.S. Army personnel met 30-day criteria for a DSM-IV anxiety, mood, disruptive behavior, or substance disorder (15.0% an internalizing disorder; 18.4% an externalizing disorder) and 11.1% for multiple disorders. Importantly, three-fourths of these disorders had pre-enlistment onsets.

CONCLUSIONS

Integration across component studies creates strengths going well beyond those in conventional applications of the same individual study designs. These design features create a strong methodological foundation from which Army STARRS can pursue its substantive research goals. The early findings reported here illustrate the importance of the study and its approach as a model of studying rare events particularly of national security concern. Continuing analyses of the data will inform suicide prevention for the U.S. Army.

Response bias, weighting adjustments, and design effects in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) is a multi-component epidemiological and neurobiological study designed to generate actionable recommendations to reduce US Army suicides and increase knowledge about determinants of suicidality. Three Army STARRS component studies are large-scale surveys: one of new soldiers prior to beginning Basic Combat Training (BCT; n = 50,765 completed self-administered questionnaires); another of other soldiers exclusive of those in BCT (n = 35,372); and a third of three Brigade Combat Teams about to deploy to Afghanistan who are being followed multiple times after returning from deployment (n = 9421). Although the response rates in these surveys are quite good (72.0-90.8%), questions can be raised about sample biases in estimating prevalence of mental disorders and suicidality, the main outcomes of the surveys based on evidence that people in the general population with mental disorders are under-represented in community surveys. This paper presents the results of analyses designed to determine whether such bias exists in the Army STARRS surveys and, if so, to develop weights to correct for these biases. Data are also presented on sample inefficiencies introduced by weighting and sample clustering and on analyses of the trade-off between bias and efficiency in weight trimming.

Clinical reappraisal of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview Screening Scales (CIDI-SC) in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

A clinical reappraisal study was carried out in conjunction with the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) All-Army Study (AAS) to evaluate concordance of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) diagnoses based on the Composite International Diagnostic Interview Screening Scales (CIDI-SC) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) checklist (PCL) with diagnoses based on independent clinical reappraisal interviews (Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV [SCID]). Diagnoses included: lifetime mania/hypomania, panic disorder, and intermittent explosive disorder; six-month adult attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder; and 30-day major depressive episode, generalized anxiety disorder, PTSD, and substance (alcohol or drug) use disorder (abuse or dependence). The sample (n = 460) was weighted for over-sampling CIDI-SC/PCL screened positives. Diagnostic thresholds were set to equalize false positives and false negatives. Good individual-level concordance was found between CIDI-SC/PCL and SCID diagnoses at these thresholds (area under curve [AUC] = 0.69-0.79). AUC was considerably higher for continuous than dichotomous screening scale scores (AUC = 0.80-0.90), arguing for substantive analyses using not only dichotomous case designations but also continuous measures of predicted probabilities of clinical diagnoses.