Meta-analysis using individual participant data: one-stage and two-stage approaches, and why they may differ

Efficacy and Safety of Excision Combination Therapies for Earlobe Keloids: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Different combinations of excision and adjuvant therapies have been applied to improve outcomes for earlobe keloids, though evidence in this field is still lacking.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to systematically investigate efficacy and safety of these treatments.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library to find all relevant studies. Meta-analysis of recurrence rates (RRs) and adverse event rates with 95% confidence intervals, and individual participants data (IPD) were calculated for each intervention when possible. Otherwise, narrative syntheses were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 85 articles, covering 23 treatments for earlobe keloids, were included, indicating a preference for multiple combination therapy. The estimated RRs for 6 interventions (i.e., excision monotherapy, combinations of excision with imiquimod, pressure therapy, radiotherapy, steroids, and steroids with pressure therapy) appeared to be comparable. Electron radiotherapy was found to have potential advantages over X-ray treatment, contributing to the observed heterogeneity. Further meta-analysis using IPD revealed that both combination therapies of excision plus steroid therapy (p=0.003) and excision plus radiotherapy (p=0.003) yielded better recurrence-free survival compared to excision alone. The median recurrence-free interval for combination therapy was 10 months. Adverse event rates were similar among different intervention groups.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that combining excision with radiotherapy or perioperative steroid therapy has the potential to improve prognosis of earlobe keloids without increasing the risk of adverse events. Overall evaluation of patients' conditions and further studies with sufficient follow-up are warranted for clinical practice.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE IV

This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

A practical guide to data management and sharing for biomedical laboratory researchers

Effective data management and sharing have become increasingly crucial in biomedical research; however, many laboratory researchers lack the necessary tools and knowledge to address this challenge. This article provides an introductory guide into research data management (RDM), and the importance of FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data-sharing principles for laboratory researchers produced by practicing scientists. We explore the advantages of implementing organized data management strategies and introduce key concepts such as data standards, data documentation, and the distinction between machine and human-readable data formats. Furthermore, we offer practical guidance for creating a data management plan and establishing efficient data workflows within the laboratory setting, suitable for labs of all sizes. This includes an examination of requirements analysis, the development of a data dictionary for routine data elements, the implementation of unique subject identifiers, and the formulation of standard operating procedures (SOPs) for seamless data flow. To aid researchers in implementing these practices, we present a simple organizational system as an illustrative example, which can be tailored to suit individual needs and research requirements. By presenting a user-friendly approach, this guide serves as an introduction to the field of RDM and offers practical tips to help researchers effortlessly meet the common data management and sharing mandates rapidly becoming prevalent in biomedical research.

Vaginal misoprostol versus vaginal dinoprostone for cervical ripening and induction of labour: An individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Induction of labour (IOL) is common practice and different methods carry different effectiveness and safety profiles.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the effectiveness, and maternal and perinatal safety outcomes of IOL with vaginal misoprostol versus vaginal dinoprostone using individual participant data from randomised clinical trials.

SEARCH STRATEGY

The following databases were searched from inception to March 2023: CINAHL Plus, ClinicalTrials.gov, Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group Trial Register, Ovid Embase, Ovid Emcare, Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), with viable singleton gestation, no language restrictions, and all published and unpublished data.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

An individual participant data meta-analysis was carried out.

MAIN RESULTS

Ten of 52 eligible trials provided individual participant data, of which two were excluded after checking data integrity. The remaining eight trials compared low-dose vaginal misoprostol versus dinoprostone, including 4180 women undergoing IOL, which represents 32.8% of all participants in the published RCTs. Of these, 2077 were assigned to low-dose vaginal misoprostol and 2103 were assigned to vaginal dinoprostone. Compared with vaginal dinoprostone, low-dose vaginal misoprostol had a comparable rate of vaginal birth. Composite adverse perinatal outcomes did not differ between the groups. Compared with vaginal dinoprostone, composite adverse maternal outcomes were significantly lower with low-dose vaginal misoprostol (aOR 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.98, P = 0.03, I2 = 0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Low-dose vaginal misoprostol and vaginal dinoprostone for IOL are comparable in terms of effectiveness and perinatal safety. However, low-dose vaginal misoprostol is likely to lead to a lower rate of composite adverse maternal outcomes than vaginal dinoprostone.

Efficacy of iron supplementation on physical capacity in non-anaemic iron-deficient individuals: protocol for an individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A deficiency in iron stores is associated with various adverse health complications, which, if left untreated, can progress to states of anaemia, whereby there is significant detriment to an individual's work capacity and quality of life due to compromised erythropoiesis. The most common methods employed to treat an iron deficiency include oral iron supplementation and, in persistent and/or unresponsive cases, intravenous iron therapy. The efficacy of these treatments, particularly in states of iron deficiency without anaemia, is equivocal. Indeed, both randomised control trials and aggregate data meta-analyses have produced conflicting evidence. Therefore, this study aims to assess the efficacy of both oral and intravenous iron supplementation on physical capacity, quality of life, and fatigue scores in iron-deficient non-anaemic individuals using individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis techniques.

METHODS

All potential studies, irrespective of design, will be sourced through systematic searches on the following databases: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE Ovid, Embase Ovid, Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded, Web of Science: Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, and World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. Individual patient data from all available trials will be included and subsequently analysed in a two-stage approach. Predetermined subgroup and sensitivity analyses will be employed to further explain results.

DISCUSSION

The significance of this IPD meta-analysis is one of consolidating a clear consensus to better inform iron-deficient individuals of the physiological response associated with iron supplementation. The IPD approach, to the best of our knowledge, is novel for this research topic. As such, the findings will significantly contribute to the current body of evidence.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42020191739.

Survival Analysis Without Sharing of Individual Patient Data by Using a Gaussian Copula

Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier estimations are often needed in clinical research and this requires access to individual patient data (IPD). However, IPD cannot always be shared because of privacy or proprietary restrictions, which complicates the making of such estimations. We propose a method that generates pseudodata replacing the IPD by only sharing non-disclosive aggregates such as IPD marginal moments and a correlation matrix. Such aggregates are collected by a central computer and input as parameters to a Gaussian copula (GC) that generates the pseudodata. Survival inferences are computed on the pseudodata as if it were the IPD. Using practical examples we demonstrate the utility of the method, via the amount of IPD inferential content recoverable by the GC. We compare GC to a summary-based meta-analysis and an IPD bootstrap distributed across several centers. Other pseudodata approaches are also considered. In the empirical results, GC approximates the utility of the IPD bootstrap although it might yield more conservative inferences and it might have limitations in subgroup analyses. Overall, GC avoids many legal problems related to IPD privacy or property while enabling approximation of common IPD survival analyses otherwise difficult to conduct. Sharing more IPD aggregates than is currently practiced could facilitate "second purpose"-research and relax concerns regarding IPD access.

The association between obesity severity and food reward in adolescents with obesity: a one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Food reward and cue reactivity have been linked prospectively to problematic eating behaviours and excess weight gain in adults and children. However, evidence to date in support of an association between degree of adiposity and food reward is tenuous. A non-linear relationship between reward sensitivity and obesity degree has been previously proposed, suggesting a peak is reached in mild obesity and decreases in more severe obesity in a quadratic fashion.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate and characterise in detail the relationship between obesity severity, body composition, and explicit and implicit food reward in adolescents with obesity.

METHODS

Data from seven clinical trials in adolescents with obesity were aggregated and analysed in an independent participant data meta-analysis. Linear and curvilinear relationships between the degree of obesity and explicit and implicit reward for sweet and high fat foods were tested in fasted and fed states with BMI-z score as a continuous and discrete predictor using clinically recognised partitions.

RESULTS

Although positive associations between obesity severity and preference for high-fat (i.e. energy dense) foods were observed when fasted, none reached significance in either analysis. Conversely, adiposity was reliably associated with lower reward for sweet, particularly when measured as implicit wanting (p = 0.012, ηp2 = 0.06), independent of metabolic state. However, this significant association was only observed in the linear model. Fat distribution was consistently associated with explicit and implicit preference for high-fat foods.

CONCLUSIONS

A limited relationship was demonstrated between obesity severity and food reward in adolescents, although a lower preference for sweet could be a signal of severe obesity in a linear trend. Obesity is likely a heterogenous condition associated with multiple potential phenotypes, which metrics of body composition may help define.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATIONS

NCT02925572: https://classic.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/ct2/show/NCT02925572 . NCT03807609: https://classic.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/ct2/show/NCT03807609 . NCT03742622: https://classic.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/ct2/show/NCT03742622 . NCT03967782: https://classic.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/ct2/show/NCT03967782 . NCT03968458: https://classic.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/ct2/show/NCT03968458 . NCT04739189: https://classic.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/ct2/show/NCT04739189 . NCT05365685: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/study/NCT05365685?tab=history .

Pulmonary arterial hypertension treatment: an individual participant data network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Effective therapies that target three main signalling pathways are approved to treat pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). However, there are few large patient-level studies that compare the effectiveness of these pathways. The aim of this analysis was to compare the effectiveness of the treatment pathways in PAH and to assess treatment heterogeneity.

METHODS

A network meta-analysis was performed using individual participant data of 6811 PAH patients from 20 Phase III randomized clinical trials of therapy for PAH that were submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration. Individual drugs were grouped by the following treatment pathways: endothelin, nitric oxide, and prostacyclin pathways.

RESULTS

The mean (±standard deviation) age of the sample was 49.2 (±15.4) years; 78.4% were female, 59.7% had idiopathic PAH, and 36.5% were on background PAH therapy. After covariate adjustment, targeting the endothelin + nitric oxide pathway {β: 43.7 m [95% confidence interval (CI): 32.9, 54.4]}, nitric oxide pathway [β: 29.4 m (95% CI: 22.6, 36.3)], endothelin pathway [β: 25.3 m (95% CI: 19.8, 30.8)], and prostacyclin pathway [oral/inhaled β: 19.1 m (95% CI: 14.2, 24.0), intravenous/subcutaneous β: 24.4 m (95% CI: 15.1, 33.7)] significantly increased 6 min walk distance at 12 or 16 weeks compared with placebo. Treatments also significantly reduced the likelihood of having clinical worsening events. There was significant heterogeneity of treatment effects by age, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, and coronary artery disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Drugs targeting the three traditional treatment pathways significantly improve outcomes in PAH, with significant treatment heterogeneity in patients with some comorbidities. Randomized clinical trials are warranted to identify the most effective treatment strategies in a personalized approach.

Reduced drug use as an alternative valid outcome in individuals with stimulant use disorders: Findings from 13 multisite randomized clinical trials

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Total abstinence has historically been the goal of treatment for substance use disorders; however, there is a growing recognition of the health benefits associated with reduced use as a harm reduction measure in stimulant use disorders treatment. We aimed to assess the validity of reduced stimulant use as an outcome measure in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of pharmacological interventions for stimulant use disorder.

DESIGN

We conducted a secondary analysis of a pooled dataset of 13 RCTs.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Participants were individuals seeking treatment for cocaine or methamphetamine use disorders (N = 2062) in a wide range of treatment facilities in the United States.

MEASUREMENTS

We validated reduced stimulant use against a set of clinical indicators drawn from harmonized measurements, including severity of problems caused by drug use, comorbid depression, global severity of substance use and improvement, severity of drug-seeking behavior, craving and high-risk behaviors, all assessed at the end of the trial, as well as follow-up urine toxicology. A series of mixed effect regression models was conducted to validate reduction in frequency of use against no reduction in use and abstinence.

FINDINGS

More participants reduced frequency of primary drug use than achieved abstinence (18.0% vs. 14.2%, respectively). Reduced use was significantly associated with decreases in craving for the primary drug [60.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 54.3%-64.7%], drug seeking behaviors (41.0%, 95% CI = 36.6%-45.7%), depression severity (39.9%, 95% CI = 30.9%-48.3%), as well as multiple measures of global improvement in psychosocial functioning and severity of drug-related problems, albeit less strongly so than abstinence. Moreover, reduced use was associated with sustained clinical benefit at follow-up, as confirmed by negative urine tests (adjusted odds ratio compared with those with no reduction in use: 0.50, 95% CI = 0.35-0.71).

CONCLUSION

Reduced frequency of stimulant use appears to be associated with meaningful improvement in various clinical indicators of recovery. Assessment of reduced use, in addition to abstinence, could broaden the scope of outcomes measured in randomized controlled trials of stimulant use disorders and facilitate the development of more diverse treatment approaches.

Heterogeneity in meta-analysis: a comprehensive overview

In recent years, meta-analysis has evolved to a critically important field of Statistics, and has significant applications in Medicine and Health Sciences. In this work we briefly present existing methodologies to conduct meta-analysis along with any discussion and recent developments accompanying them. Undoubtedly, studies brought together in a systematic review will differ in one way or another. This yields a considerable amount of variability, any kind of which may be termed heterogeneity. To this end, reports of meta-analyses commonly present a statistical test of heterogeneity when attempting to establish whether the included studies are indeed similar in terms of the reported output or not. We intend to provide an overview of the topic, discuss the potential sources of heterogeneity commonly met in the literature and provide useful guidelines on how to address this issue and to detect heterogeneity. Moreover, we review the recent developments in the Bayesian approach along with the various graphical tools and statistical software that are currently available to the analyst. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis issues and other approaches of understanding the causes of heterogeneity. Finally, we explore heterogeneity in meta-analysis for time to event data in a nutshell, pointing out its unique characteristics.

Ultrasound-based steatosis grading system using 2D-attenuation imaging: An individual patient data meta-analysis with external validation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Noninvasive tools assessing steatosis, such as ultrasonography-based 2D-attenuation imaging (ATI), are needed to tackle the worldwide burden of steatotic liver disease. This one-stage individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis aimed to create an ATI-based steatosis grading system.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

A systematic review (EMBASE + MEDLINE, 2018-2022) identified studies, including patients with histologically or magnetic resonance imaging proton-density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF)-verified ATI for grading steatosis (S0 to S3). One-stage IPD meta-analyses were conducted using generalized mixed models with a random study-specific intercept. Created ATI-based steatosis grading system (aS0 to aS3) was externally validated on a prospective cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (n=174, histologically and MRI-PDFF-verified steatosis). Eleven enrolled studies included 1374 patients, classified into S0, S1, S2, and S3 in 45.4%, 35.0%, 9.3%, and 10.3% of the cases. ATI was correlated with histological steatosis ( r = 0.60; 95% CI: 0.52, 0.67; p < 0.001) and MRI-PDFF ( r = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.73; p < 0.001) but not with liver stiffness ( r = 0.03; 95% CI: -0.04, 0.11, p = 0.343). Steatosis grade was an independent factor associated with ATI (coefficient: 0.24; 95% CI: [0.22, 0.26]; p < 0.001). ATI marginal means within S0, S1, S2, and S3 subpopulations were 0.59 (95% CI: [0.58, 0.61]), 0.69 (95% CI [0.67, 0.71]), 0.78 (95% CI: [0.76, 0.81]), and 0.85 (95% CI: [0.83, 0.88]) dB/cm/MHz; all contrasts between grades were significant ( p < 0.0001). Three ATI thresholds were calibrated to create a new ATI-based steatosis grading system (aS0 to aS3, cutoffs: 0.66, 0.73, and 0.81 dB/cm/MHz). Its external validation showed Obuchowski measures of 0.84 ± 0.02 and 0.82 ± 0.02 with histologically based and MRI-PDFF-based references.

CONCLUSIONS

ATI is a reliable, noninvasive marker of steatosis. This validated ATI-based steatosis grading system could be valuable in assessing patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

Factors associated with tuberculosis treatment initiation among bacteriologically negative individuals evaluated for tuberculosis: an individual patient data meta-analysis

Background

Globally, over one-third of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease diagnoses are made based on clinical criteria after a negative diagnostic test result. Understanding factors associated with clinicians' decisions to initiate treatment for individuals with negative test results is critical for predicting the potential impact of new diagnostics.

Methods

We performed a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis using studies conducted between January/2010 and December/2022 (PROSPERO: CRD42022287613). We included trials or cohort studies that enrolled individuals evaluated for TB in routine settings. In these studies participants were evaluated based on clinical examination and routinely-used diagnostics, and were followed for ≥1 week after the initial test result. We used hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression to identify factors associated with treatment initiation following a negative result on an initial bacteriological test (e.g., sputum smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF).

Findings

Multiple factors were positively associated with treatment initiation: male sex [adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 1.61 (1.31-1.95)], history of prior TB [aOR 1.36 (1.06-1.73)], reported cough [aOR 4.62 (3.42-6.27)], reported night sweats [aOR 1.50 (1.21-1.90)], and having HIV infection but not on ART [aOR 1.68 (1.23-2.32)]. Treatment initiation was substantially less likely for individuals testing negative with Xpert [aOR 0.77 (0.62-0.96)] compared to smear microscopy and declined in more recent years.

Interpretation

Multiple factors influenced decisions to initiate TB treatment despite negative test results. Clinicians were substantially less likely to treat in the absence of a positive test result when using more sensitive, PCR-based diagnostics.

Comparison of methods that combine multiple randomized trials to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects

Individualized treatment decisions can improve health outcomes, but using data to make these decisions in a reliable, precise, and generalizable way is challenging with a single dataset. Leveraging multiple randomized controlled trials allows for the combination of datasets with unconfounded treatment assignment to better estimate heterogeneous treatment effects. This article discusses several nonparametric approaches for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using data from multiple trials. We extend single-study methods to a scenario with multiple trials and explore their performance through a simulation study, with data generation scenarios that have differing levels of cross-trial heterogeneity. The simulations demonstrate that methods that directly allow for heterogeneity of the treatment effect across trials perform better than methods that do not, and that the choice of single-study method matters based on the functional form of the treatment effect. Finally, we discuss which methods perform well in each setting and then apply them to four randomized controlled trials to examine effect heterogeneity of treatments for major depressive disorder.

Lifespan reference curves for harmonizing multi-site regional brain white matter metrics from diffusion MRI

Age-related white matter (WM) microstructure maturation and decline occur throughout the human lifespan, complementing the process of gray matter development and degeneration. Here, we create normative lifespan reference curves for global and regional WM microstructure by harmonizing diffusion MRI (dMRI)-derived data from ten public datasets (N = 40,898 subjects; age: 3-95 years; 47.6% male). We tested three harmonization methods on regional diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) based fractional anisotropy (FA), a metric of WM microstructure, extracted using the ENIGMA-DTI pipeline. ComBat-GAM harmonization provided multi-study trajectories most consistent with known WM maturation peaks. Lifespan FA reference curves were validated with test-retest data and used to assess the effect of the ApoE4 risk factor for dementia in WM across the lifespan. We found significant associations between ApoE4 and FA in WM regions associated with neurodegenerative disease even in healthy individuals across the lifespan, with regional age-by-genotype interactions. Our lifespan reference curves and tools to harmonize new dMRI data to the curves are publicly available as eHarmonize (https://github.com/ahzhu/eharmonize).

Pre-emptive TIPS in high-risk acute variceal bleeding. An updated and revised individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A previous individual patient data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) showed that compared with drugs+endoscopy, the placement of transjugular portosystemic shunt within 72 hours of admission (pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: p-TIPS) increases the survival of high-risk patients (Child-Pugh B+ active bleeding and Child-Pugh C<14 points) with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding. However, the previous IPD-MA was not a two-stage meta-analysis, did not consider the potential risk of selection bias of observational studies, and did not include the most recent randomized clinical trial. We performed an updated and revised IPD-MA to reassess the efficacy of p-TIPS, addressing all previous issues.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We included all studies from the previous IPD-MA and searched for other possible eligible publications until September 2022. We performed a two-stage IPD-MA of data from 8 studies (4 randomized clinical trials and 4 observational). In addition, we performed a sensitivity analysis excluding those patients dying up to the first 72 hours after admission in the Drugs+Endoscopy arms of the 4 observational studies. The primary end point was the effects of p-TIPS versus Drugs+Endoscopy on 1-year survival.We identified 1389 patients (342 p-TIPS and 1047 Drugs+Endoscopy). The two-stage IPD-MA showed that p-TIPS significantly reduced the mortality in the overall population (HR=0·43, 95% CI: 0.32-0.60, p <0.001. This effect was observed in both subgroups of patients with Child-Pugh. The sensitivity analysis confirmed the survival benefit of p-TIPS.

CONCLUSIONS

The updated two-stage IPD-MA confirms the significant survival advantage of p-TIPS in high-risk patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding. As a result, we recommend p-TIPS as the preferred first-choice treatment for these patients.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models for Asian Ever-Smokers

INTRODUCTION

Although lung cancer prediction models are widely used to support risk-based screening, their performance outside Western populations remains uncertain. This study aims to evaluate the performance of 11 existing risk prediction models in multiple Asian populations and to refit prediction models for Asians.

METHODS

In a pooled analysis of 186,458 Asian ever-smokers from 19 prospective cohorts, we assessed calibration (expected-to-observed ratio) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) for each model. In addition, we developed the "Shanghai models" to better refine risk models for Asians on the basis of two well-characterized population-based prospective cohorts and externally validated them in other Asian cohorts.

RESULTS

Among the 11 models, the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool yielded the highest AUC (AUC [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 0.71 [0.67-0.74] for lung cancer death and 0.69 [0.67-0.72] for lung cancer incidence) and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model had good calibration overall (expected-to-observed ratio [95% CI] = 1.06 [0.90-1.25]). Nevertheless, these models substantially underestimated lung cancer risk among Asians who reported less than 10 smoking pack-years or stopped smoking more than or equal to 20 years ago. The Shanghai models were found to have marginal improvement overall in discrimination (AUC [95% CI] = 0.72 [0.69-0.74] for lung cancer death and 0.70 [0.67-0.72] for lung cancer incidence) but consistently outperformed the selected Western models among low-intensity smokers and long-term quitters.

CONCLUSIONS

The Shanghai models had comparable performance overall to the best existing models, but they improved much in predicting the lung cancer risk of low-intensity smokers and long-term quitters in Asia.

What works for whom and why? Treatment effects and their moderators among forcibly displaced people receiving psychological and psychosocial interventions: study protocol for an individual patient data meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Forcibly displaced people (FDP) have a high risk of developing mental disorders such as post-traumatic stress (PTS) disorder. Providing adequate mental healthcare for FDP is crucial but despite overall efficacy of many existing interventions, a large proportion of FDP does not benefit from treatment, highlighting the necessity of further investigating factors contributing to individual differences in treatment outcome. Yet, the few studies that have explored moderators of treatment effects are often insufficiently powered. Therefore, the present Individual Patient Data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) will investigate treatment effects and their moderators-variables related to beneficiaries, providers, intervention and study characteristics in relation to PTS outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A systematic literature search will be conducted from database inception in the databases PsycINFO, Cochrane, Embase, PTSDpubs and Web of Science. Only studies published in English, German, French, Spanish, Portuguese, and Dutch will be considered. Retrieved records will be screened for eligibility. Randomised controlled trials on adult FDP receiving psychological and psychosocial interventions aimed at alleviating symptoms such as PTS compared with a control condition without intervention will be included in this IPD-MA. Subsequently, authors of eligible studies will be contacted to request individual patient data (IPD). All datasets obtained will be synthesised into one large dataset which will be analysed using a one-stage approach by conducting mixed-effects linear regression models (ie, primary analysis). Additionally, aggregate data meta-analyes will be run using a two-stage approach by conducting multivariate regression models including all IPD (transformed) and available meta-data from study reports (ie, secondary analysis). PTS will serve as primary outcome measure, while mental health outcomes other than PTS, attendance, attrition, treatment non-response and adverse outcomes will be examined as secondary outcomes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This IPD-MA does not require ethical approval. The results will be published in international peer-reviewed journals.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022299510.

A Meta-analysis Comparing Toothbrush Technologies on Gingivitis and Plaque

BACKGROUND

Research continues to show an association between oral health and systemic health, further stressing the importance of effective daily plaque removal via toothbrushing to maintain periodontal health and overall well-being. This investigation was undertaken to compare the efficacy of oscillating-rotating, sonic, and manual toothbrushes in reducing gingivitis and plaque in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with up to 6 months' follow-up.

METHODS

This meta-analysis was conducted from a single database (Procter & Gamble Oral Care Clinical Archive) including RCTs from 2007 to 2022. Three authors independently assessed study eligibility. Disagreements concerning selected studies were resolved by discussion with an expert colleague. Direct and indirect treatment comparisons along with transition rates to gingival health were calculated using participant-level data. Transition-to-health time was calculated using data from all time points. Subregion analyses evaluated number of bleeding sites and plaque reduction.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis included 21 gingivitis RCTs and 25 plaque RCTs. Relative to manual and sonic brushes, oscillating-rotating brushes had a higher percentage of participants who transitioned to gingival health (72% vs 21% and 54%; P < .001). Compared with manual and sonic brushes, respectively, oscillating-rotating brushes demonstrated greater bleeding site reductions (by 52% and 29%; P < .001) and superior plaque reductions (by 19% and 5%; P < .001). Oscillating-rotating brushes provided faster transitions to health than sonic brushes and showed greater efficacy across subregions. The most advanced oscillating-rotating brush demonstrated statistically significantly greater efficacy compared with traditional oscillating-rotating, manual, and sonic brushes when analysed separately. Risk of bias was deemed low for all studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Oscillating-rotating toothbrushes offer superior results for transition to health, gingivitis, and plaque reduction compared with manual and sonic brushes. The most advanced oscillating-rotating model offers enhanced efficacy vs traditional models.

Trunk postural control during unstable sitting among individuals with and without low back pain: A systematic review with an individual participant data meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Sitting on an unstable surface is a common paradigm to investigate trunk postural control among individuals with low back pain (LBP), by minimizing the influence lower extremities on balance control. Outcomes of many small studies are inconsistent (e.g., some find differences between groups while others do not), potentially due to confounding factors such as age, sex, body mass index [BMI], or clinical presentations. We conducted a systematic review with an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis to investigate whether trunk postural control differs between those with and without LBP, and whether the difference between groups is impacted by vision and potential confounding factors.

METHODS

We completed this review according to PRISMA-IPD guidelines. The literature was screened (up to 7th September 2023) from five electronic databases: MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science Core Collection. Outcome measures were extracted that describe unstable seat movements, specifically centre of pressure or seat angle. Our main analyses included: 1) a two-stage IPD meta-analysis to assess the difference between groups and their interaction with age, sex, BMI, and vision on trunk postural control; 2) and a two-stage IPD meta-regression to determine the effects of LBP clinical features (pain intensity, disability, pain catastrophizing, and fear-avoidance beliefs) on trunk postural control.

RESULTS

Forty studies (1,821 participants) were included for the descriptive analysis and 24 studies (1,050 participants) were included for the IPD analysis. IPD meta-analyses revealed three main findings: (a) trunk postural control was worse (higher root mean square displacement [RMSdispl], range, and long-term diffusion; lower mean power frequency) among individuals with than without LBP; (b) trunk postural control deteriorated more (higher RMSdispl, short- and long-term diffusion) among individuals with than without LBP when vision was removed; and (c) older age and higher BMI had greater adverse impacts on trunk postural control (higher short-term diffusion; longer time and distance coordinates of the critical point) among individuals with than without LBP. IPD meta-regressions indicated no associations between the limited LBP clinical features that could be considered and trunk postural control.

CONCLUSION

Trunk postural control appears to be inferior among individuals with LBP, which was indicated by increased seat movements and some evidence of trunk stiffening. These findings are likely explained by delayed or less accurate corrective responses.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

This review has been registered in PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42021124658).

Ultrasound guidance for transfemoral access in coronary procedures: an individual participant-level data metaanalysis from the femoral ultrasound trialist collaboration

BACKGROUND

Randomised controlled trials of ultrasound (US)-guided transfemoral access (TFA) for coronary procedures have shown mixed results.

AIMS

We aimed to compare US-guided versus non-US-guided TFA from randomised data in an individual participant-level data (IPD) meta-analysis.

METHODS

We completed a systematic review and an IPD meta-analysis of all randomised controlled trials comparing US-guided versus non-US-guided TFA for coronary procedures. We performed a one-stage mixed-model meta-analysis using the intention-to-treat population from included trials. The primary outcome was a composite of major vascular complications or major bleeding within 30 days.

RESULTS

A total of 2,441 participants (1,208 US-guided, 1,233 non-US-guided) from 4 randomised clinical trials were included. The mean age was 65.5 years, 27.0% were female, and 34.5% underwent a percutaneous coronary intervention. The incidence of major vascular complications or major bleeding (34/1,208 [2.8%] vs 55/1,233 [4.5%]; odds ratio [OR] 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.39-0.94; p=0.026) was lower in the US-guided TFA group. In the prespecified subgroup of participants who received a vascular closure device, those randomised to US-guided TFA experienced a reduction in the primary outcome (2.1% vs 5.6%; OR 0.36, 95% CI: 0.19-0.69), while no benefit for US guidance was observed in the subgroup without vascular closure devices (4.1% vs 3.3%; OR 1.21, 95% CI: 0.65-2.26; interaction p=0.009).

CONCLUSIONS

In participants undergoing coronary procedures by TFA, US guidance decreased the composite outcome of major vascular complications or bleeding and may be especially helpful when using vascular closure devices.

Use of multiple covariates in assessing treatment-effect modifiers: A methodological review of individual participant data meta-analyses

Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses of randomised trials are considered a reliable way to assess participant-level treatment effect modifiers but may not make the best use of the available data. Traditionally, effect modifiers are explored one covariate at a time, which gives rise to the possibility that evidence of treatment-covariate interaction may be due to confounding from a different, related covariate. We aimed to evaluate current practice when estimating treatment-covariate interactions in IPD meta-analysis, specifically focusing on involvement of additional covariates in the models. We reviewed 100 IPD meta-analyses of randomised trials, published between 2015 and 2020, that assessed at least one treatment-covariate interaction. We identified four approaches to handling additional covariates: (1) Single interaction model (unadjusted): No additional covariates included (57/100 IPD meta-analyses); (2) Single interaction model (adjusted): Adjustment for the main effect of at least one additional covariate (35/100); (3) Multiple interactions model: Adjustment for at least one two-way interaction between treatment and an additional covariate (3/100); and (4) Three-way interaction model: Three-way interaction formed between treatment, the additional covariate and the potential effect modifier (5/100). IPD is not being utilised to its fullest extent. In an exemplar dataset, we demonstrate how these approaches lead to different conclusions. Researchers should adjust for additional covariates when estimating interactions in IPD meta-analysis providing they adjust their main effects, which is already widely recommended. Further, they should consider whether more complex approaches could provide better information on who might benefit most from treatments, improving patient choice and treatment policy and practice.

Safety and efficacy of primaquine in patients with Plasmodium vivax malaria from South Asia: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The optimal dosing of primaquine to prevent relapsing Plasmodium vivax malaria in South Asia remains unclear. We investigated the efficacy and safety of different primaquine regimens to prevent P. vivax relapse.

METHODS

A systematic review identified P. vivax efficacy studies from South Asia published between 1 January 2000 and 23 August 2021. In a one-stage meta-analysis of available individual patient data, the cumulative risks of P. vivax recurrence at day 42 and 180 were assessed by primaquine total mg/kg dose and duration. The risk of recurrence by day 180 was also determined in a two-stage meta-analysis. Patients with a >25% drop in haemoglobin to <70 g/L, or an absolute drop of >50 g/L between days 1 and 14 were categorised by daily mg/kg primaquine dose.

RESULTS

In 791 patients from 7 studies in the one-stage meta-analysis, the day 180 cumulative risk of recurrence was 61.1% (95% CI 42.2% to 80.4%; 201 patients; 25 recurrences) after treatment without primaquine, 28.8% (95% CI 8.2% to 74.1%; 398 patients; 4 recurrences) following low total (2 to <5 mg/kg) and 0% (96 patients; 0 recurrences) following high total dose primaquine (≥5 mg/kg). In the subsequent two-stage meta-analysis of nine studies (3529 patients), the pooled proportions of P. vivax recurrences by day 180 were 12.1% (95% CI 7.7% to 17.2%), 2.3% (95% CI 0.3% to 5.4%) and 0.7% (95% CI 0% to 6.1%), respectively. No patients had a >25% drop in haemoglobin to <70 g/L.

CONCLUSIONS

Primaquine treatment led to a marked decrease in P. vivax recurrences following low (~3.5 mg/kg) and high (~7 mg/kg) total doses, with no reported severe haemolytic events.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022313730.

Interhemispheric Integration after Callosotomy: A Meta-Analysis of Poffenberger and Redundant-Target Paradigms

The central role of the corpus callosum in integrating perception and cognition across the cerebral hemispheres makes it highly desirable for clinical and basic research to have a repertoire of experimental paradigms assessing callosal functioning. Here, the objective was to assess the validity of two such paradigms (Poffenberger, redundant-target paradigms) by conducting single-step meta-analyses on individual case data of callosotomy patients. Studies were identified by systematic literature search (source: Pubmed and WebOfKnowledge, date: 07.03.2022) and all studies were included that reported callosotomy case data for either paradigm. Twenty-two studies (38 unique cases) provided 116 observations of the crossed-uncrossed difference (CUD) for the Poffenberger paradigm, while ten studies (22 cases, 103 observations) provided bilateral redundancy gain (bRG) measures. Using linear-mixed models with "individual" and "experiment" as random-effects variable, the mean CUD was estimated at 60.6 ms (CI95%: 45.3; 75.9) for commissurotomy, 43.5 ms (26.7; 60.2) for complete callosotomy, and 8.8 ms (1.1; 16.6) for partial anterior-medial callosotomy patients. The estimates of commissurotomy/callosotomy patients differed significantly from patients with partial callosotomy and healthy controls. The mean bRGmin (minimum unilateral reference) was estimated at 42.8 ms (27.1;58.4) for patients with complete and 30.8 ms (16.8; 44.7) for patients with partial callosotomy, both differing significantly from controls. One limitation was that different formulas for bRG were used, making it necessary to split the sample and reducing test power of some analyses. Nevertheless, the present findings suggest that both paradigms assess interhemispheric callosal integration, confirming their construct validity, but likely test distinct callosal functions.

Individual participant data from digital sources informed and improved precision in the evaluation of predictive biomarkers in Bayesian network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop a network meta-analytic model for the evaluation of treatment effectiveness within predictive biomarker subgroups, by combining evidence from individual participant data (IPD) from digital sources (in the absence of randomized controlled trials) and aggregate data (AD).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A Bayesian framework was developed for modeling time-to-event data to evaluate predictive biomarkers. IPD were sourced from electronic health records, using a target trial emulation approach, or digitized Kaplan-Meier curves. The model is illustrated using two examples: breast cancer with a hormone receptor biomarker, and metastatic colorectal cancer with the Kirsten Rat Sarcoma (KRAS) biomarker.

RESULTS

The model allowed for the estimation of treatment effects in two subgroups of patients defined by their biomarker status. Effectiveness of taxanes did not differ in hormone receptor positive and negative breast cancer patients. Epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitors were more effective than chemotherapy in KRAS wild type colorectal cancer patients but not in patients with KRAS mutant status. Use of IPD reduced uncertainty of the subgroup-specific treatment effect estimates by up to 49%.

CONCLUSION

Utilization of IPD allowed for more detailed evaluation of predictive biomarkers and cancer therapies and improved precision of the estimates compared to use of AD alone.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with post-stroke epilepsy: protocol for an individual patient data meta-analysis from the International Post-stroke Epilepsy Research Repository (IPSERR)

INTRODUCTION

Despite significant advances in managing acute stroke and reducing stroke mortality, preventing complications like post-stroke epilepsy (PSE) has seen limited progress. PSE research has been scattered worldwide with varying methodologies and data reporting. To address this, we established the International Post-stroke Epilepsy Research Consortium (IPSERC) to integrate global PSE research efforts. This protocol outlines an individual patient data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) to determine outcomes in patients with post-stroke seizures (PSS) and develop/validate PSE prediction models, comparing them with existing models. This protocol informs about creating the International Post-stroke Epilepsy Research Repository (IPSERR) to support future collaborative research.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We utilised a comprehensive search strategy and searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycInfo, Cochrane, and Web of Science databases until 30 January 2023. We extracted observational studies of stroke patients aged ≥18 years, presenting early or late PSS with data on patient outcome measures, and conducted the risk of bias assessment. We did not apply any restriction based on the date or language of publication. We will invite these study authors and the IPSERC collaborators to contribute IPD to IPSERR. We will review the IPD lodged within IPSERR to identify patients who developed epileptic seizures and those who did not. We will merge the IPD files of individual data and standardise the variables where possible for consistency. We will conduct an IPD-MA to estimate the prognostic value of clinical characteristics in predicting PSE.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval is not required for this study. The results will be published in peer-reviewed journals. This study will contribute to IPSERR, which will be available to researchers for future PSE research projects. It will also serve as a platform to anchor future clinical trials.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT06108102.

Conditional Poisson Regression with Random Effects for the Analysis of Multi-site Time Series Studies

The analysis of time series studies linking daily counts of a health indicator with environmental variables (e.g., mortality or hospital admissions with air pollution concentrations or temperature; or motor vehicle crashes with temperature) is usually conducted with Poisson regression models controlling for long-term and seasonal trends using temporal strata. When the study includes multiple zones, analysts usually apply a two-stage approach: first, each zone is analyzed separately, and the resulting zone-specific estimates are then combined using meta-analysis. This approach allows zone-specific control for trends. A one-stage approach uses spatio-temporal strata and could be seen as a particular case of the case-time series framework recently proposed. However, the number of strata can escalate very rapidly in a long time series with many zones. A computationally efficient alternative is to fit a conditional Poisson regression model, avoiding the estimation of the nuisance strata. To allow for zone-specific effects, we propose a conditional Poisson regression model with a random slope, although available frequentist software does not implement this model. Here, we implement our approach in the Bayesian paradigm, which also facilitates the inclusion of spatial patterns in the effect of interest. We also provide a possible extension to deal with overdispersed data. We first introduce the equations of the framework and then illustrate their application to data from a previously published study on the effects of temperature on the risk of motor vehicle crashes. We provide R code and a semi-synthetic dataset to reproduce all analyses presented.

Brief Alcohol Interventions are Effective through 6 Months: Findings from Marginalized Zero-inflated Poisson and Negative Binomial Models in a Two-step IPD Meta-analysis

To evaluate and optimize brief alcohol interventions (BAIs), it is critical to have a credible overall effect size estimate as a benchmark. Estimating such an effect size has been challenging because alcohol outcomes often represent responses from a mixture of individuals: those at high risk for alcohol misuse, occasional nondrinkers, and abstainers. Moreover, some BAIs exclusively focus on heavy drinkers, whereas others take a universal prevention approach. Depending on sample characteristics, the outcome distribution might have many zeros or very few zeros and overdispersion; consequently, the most appropriate statistical model may differ across studies. We synthesized individual participant data (IPD) from 19 studies in Project INTEGRATE (Mun et al., 2015b) that randomly allocated participants to intervention and control groups (N = 7,704 participants, 38.4% men, 74.7% White, 58.5% first-year students). We sequentially estimated marginalized zero-inflated Poisson (Long et al., 2014) or negative binomial regression models to obtain covariate-adjusted, study-specific intervention effect estimates in the first step, which were subsequently combined in a random-effects meta-analysis model in the second step. BAIs produced a statistically significant 8% advantage in the mean number of drinks at both 1-3 months (RR = 0.92, 95% CI = [0.85, 0.98]) and 6 months (RR = 0.92, 95% CI = [0.85, 0.99]) compared to controls. At 9-12 months, there was no statistically significant difference in the mean number of drinks between BAIs and controls. In conclusion, BAIs are effective at reducing the mean number of drinks through at least 6 months post intervention. IPD can play a critical role in deriving findings that could not be obtained in original individual studies or standard aggregate data meta-analyses.

Methods for Integrating Trials and Non-experimental Data to Examine Treatment Effect Heterogeneity

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately estimate effect moderation. A recent influx of work has looked into estimating treatment effect heterogeneity using data from multiple randomized controlled trials and/or observational datasets. With many new methods available for assessing treatment effect heterogeneity using multiple studies, it is important to understand which methods are best used in which setting, how the methods compare to one another, and what needs to be done to continue progress in this field. This paper reviews these methods broken down by data setting: aggregate-level data, federated learning, and individual participant-level data. We define the conditional average treatment effect and discuss differences between parametric and nonparametric estimators, and we list key assumptions, both those that are required within a single study and those that are necessary for data combination. After describing existing approaches, we compare and contrast them and reveal open areas for future research. This review demonstrates that there are many possible approaches for estimating treatment effect heterogeneity through the combination of datasets, but that there is substantial work to be done to compare these methods through case studies and simulations, extend them to different settings, and refine them to account for various challenges present in real data.

Peer Network Counseling Effects on Substance Use: an Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis Integrating Three Randomized Controlled Trials

The current study describes an individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) testing the efficacy of a peer-network counseling (PNC) intervention for preventing substance use escalation in adolescents and young adults. PNC has shown efficacy in reducing substance use among adolescents and young adults across small-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Identifying expected large-scale effects and moderators is an important next step in guiding use of PNC in practice. To this end, we combine three small-scale RCTs to test PNC intervention effects on substance use change in a combined sample of 421 adolescents and young adults (50% intervention, 55% female, 69% Black/African-American, M age [SD] = 17.3 [2.2] years). Our approach combines latent change score modeling in a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework with study-level fixed effects to obtain (a) a more generalizable PNC effect than we could obtain with each constituent sample and (b) greater power and precision for individual-level moderation of treatment effects. We found that although PNC main effects on substance use outcomes (past 30-day cannabis, alcohol, tobacco, and drug use) were not significant, PNC effects were moderated by individual-level pre-intervention substance use frequency. PNC more strongly reduced drug use at the 1-month follow-up and cannabis use at the 3-month follow-up among participants who showed higher baseline use of these substances. Implications of our approach and findings for prevention researchers are discussed.

Outcomes in PIC-Related CNV: Pooled Analysis of Individual Participant Data

Choroidal neovascularization (CNV) affects 64-75% of eyes with punctate inner choroidopathy (PIC). Although anti-VEGF agents are considered first-line therapy, there is controversy regarding other modalities, such as immunosuppression. We performed a systematic review of individual participant data (IPD) and generated a dataset of 278 eyes with PIC-related CNV from 45 studies. Forty-two percent presented with moderate visual loss (MVL) or worse. Four different treatment modalities (anti-VEGF, photodynamic therapy, local immunosuppression, and systemic immunosuppression) and most combinations among them were represented. Anti-VEGF injections decreased the likelihood of MVL (Odds Ratio 0.3, p = .027), an effect moderated by presenting visual acuity and patient age. Eyes receiving more than 3 injections were more likely to receive additional therapeutic modalities. Increasing number of modalities was associated with longer follow-up time and did not improve vision. The beneficial effect of anti-VEGF injections persisted when controlling for presenting visual acuity and follow-up time.

Two-stage or not two-stage? That is the question for IPD meta-analysis projects

Individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) projects obtain, check, harmonise and synthesise raw data from multiple studies. When undertaking the meta-analysis, researchers must decide between a two-stage or a one-stage approach. In a two-stage approach, the IPD are first analysed separately within each study to obtain aggregate data (e.g., treatment effect estimates and standard errors); then, in the second stage, these aggregate data are combined in a standard meta-analysis model (e.g., common-effect or random-effects). In a one-stage approach, the IPD from all studies are analysed in a single step using an appropriate model that accounts for clustering of participants within studies and, potentially, between-study heterogeneity (e.g., a general or generalised linear mixed model). The best approach to take is debated in the literature, and so here we provide clearer guidance for a broad audience. Both approaches are important tools for IPDMA researchers and neither are a panacea. If most studies in the IPDMA are small (few participants or events), a one-stage approach is recommended due to using a more exact likelihood. However, in other situations, researchers can choose either approach, carefully following best practice. Some previous claims recommending to always use a one-stage approach are misleading, and the two-stage approach will often suffice for most researchers. When differences do arise between the two approaches, often it is caused by researchers using different modelling assumptions or estimation methods, rather than using one or two stages per se.

Investigating for Whom Brief Substance Use Interventions Are Most Effective: An Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis

Prior research suggests that brief interventions (BIs) for alcohol and other drug use may vary in effectiveness across patient sociodemographic factors. The objective of this individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis was to explore for whom BIs delivered in general healthcare settings are more or less effective. We examined variability in BI effects by patient age, sex, employment, education, relationship status, and baseline severity of substance use using a two-stage IPD meta-analysis approach. All trials included in a parent aggregate data meta-analysis (k = 116) were invited to contribute IPD, and 29 trials provided patient-level data (12,074 participants). Among females, BIs led to significant reductions in binge alcohol consumption ([Formula: see text] = 0.09, 95% CI [0.03, 0.14]), frequency of alcohol consumption ([Formula: see text] = 0.10, 95% CI [0.03, 0.17]), and alcohol-related consequences ([Formula: see text] = 0.16, 95% CI [0.08, 0.25]), as well as greater substance use treatment utilization ([Formula: see text] = 0.25, 95% CI [0.21, 0.30]). BIs yielded larger reductions in frequency of alcohol consumption at 3-month follow-up for individuals with less than a high school level education ([Formula: see text] = 0.16, 95% CI [0.09, 0.22]). Given evidence demonstrating modest BI effects on alcohol use and mixed or null findings for BI effects on other drug use, BI research should continue to investigate potential drivers of effect magnitude and variation.  PROTOCOL REGISTRATION DETAILS: The protocol for this review was pre-registered in PROSPERO #CRD42018086832 and the analysis plan was pre-registered in OSF: osf.io/m48g6.

Which is Better for Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Zero-Inflated Count Outcomes, One-Step or Two-Step Analysis? A Simulation Study

Meta-analysis using individual participant data (IPD) is an important methodology in intervention research because it (a) increases accuracy and precision of estimates, (b) allows researchers to investigate mediators and moderators of treatment effects, and (c) makes use of extant data. IPD meta-analysis can be conducted either via a one-step approach that uses data from all studies simultaneously, or a two-step approach, which aggregates data for each study and then combines them in a traditional meta-analysis model. Unfortunately, there are no evidence-based guidelines for how best to approach IPD meta-analysis for count outcomes with many zeroes, such as alcohol use. We used simulation to compare the performance of four hurdle models (3 one-step and 1 two-step models) for zero-inflated count IPD, under realistic data conditions. Overall, all models yielded adequate coverage and bias for the treatment effect in the count portion of the model, across all data conditions. However, in the zero portion, the treatment effect was underestimated in most models and data conditions, especially when there were fewer studies. The performance of both one- and two-step approaches depended on the formulation of the treatment effects, suggesting a need to carefully consider model assumptions and specifications when using IPD.

Host, parasite and drug determinants of clinical outcomes following treatment of visceral leishmaniasis: a protocol for individual participant data meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a parasitic disease with an estimated 30 000 new cases occurring annually. There is an observed variation in the efficacy of the current first-line therapies across different regions. Such heterogeneity could be a function of host, parasite and drug factors. An individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) is planned to explore the determinants of treatment outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO) VL living systematic review (IDDO VL LSR) library is an open-access resource of all published therapeutic studies in VL since 1980. For this current review, the search includes all clinical trials published between 1 January 1980 and 2 May 2021. Studies indexed in the IDDO VL LSR library were screened for eligibility for inclusion in this IPD-MA. Corresponding authors and principal investigators of the studies meeting the eligibility criteria for inclusion were invited to be part of the collaborative IPD-MA. Authors agreeing to participate in this collaborative research were requested to share the IPD using the IDDO VL data platform. The IDDO VL data platform currently holds data sets from clinical trials standardised to a common data format and provides a unique opportunity to identify host, parasite and drug determinants of treatment outcomes. Multivariable regression models will be constructed to identify determinants of therapeutic outcomes using generalised linear mixed-effects models accounting for within-study site clustering.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This IPD-MA meets the criteria for waiver of ethical review as defined by the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee (OxTREC) granted to IDDO, as the research consists of secondary analysis of existing anonymised data (Exempt granted on 29 March 2023, OxTREC REF: IDDO) Ethics approval was granted by the ICMR-Rajendra Memorial Research Institute of Medical Sciences ethics committee (Letter no: RMRI/EC/30/2022) on 04-07-2022. The results of this IPD-MA will be disseminated at conferences, IDDO website and any peer-reviewed publications. All publications will be open source. Findings of this research will be critically important for the control programmes at regional/global levels, policy makers and groups developing new VL treatments.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION

CRD42021284622.

Adherence to CPAP Treatment and the Risk of Recurrent Cardiovascular Events: A Meta-Analysis

Importance

The effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) on secondary cardiovascular disease prevention is highly debated.

Objective

To assess the effect of CPAP treatment for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) on the risk of adverse cardiovascular events in randomized clinical trials.

Data Sources

PubMed (MEDLINE), EMBASE, Current Controlled Trials: metaRegister of Controlled Trials, ISRCTN Registry, European Union clinical trials database, CENTRAL (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials), and ClinicalTrials.gov databases were systematically searched through June 22, 2023.

Study Selection

For qualitative and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis, randomized clinical trials addressing the therapeutic effect of CPAP on cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in adults with cardiovascular disease and OSA were included.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Two reviewers independently screened records, evaluated potentially eligible primary studies in full text, extracted data, and cross-checked errors. IPD were requested from authors of the selected studies (SAVE [NCT00738179], ISAACC [NCT01335087], and RICCADSA [NCT00519597]).

Main Outcomes and Measures

One-stage and 2-stage IPD meta-analyses were completed to estimate the effect of CPAP treatment on risk of recurrent major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) using mixed-effect Cox regression models. Additionally, an on-treatment analysis with marginal structural Cox models using inverse probability of treatment weighting was fitted to assess the effect of good adherence to CPAP (≥4 hours per day).

Results

A total of 4186 individual participants were evaluated (82.1% men; mean [SD] body mass index, 28.9 [4.5]; mean [SD] age, 61.2 [8.7] years; mean [SD] apnea-hypopnea index, 31.2 [17] events per hour; 71% with hypertension; 50.1% receiving CPAP [mean {SD} adherence, 3.1 {2.4} hours per day]; 49.9% not receiving CPAP [usual care], mean [SD] follow-up, 3.25 [1.8] years). The main outcome was defined as the first MACCE, which was similar for the CPAP and no CPAP groups (hazard ratio, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.87-1.17]). However, an on-treatment analysis by marginal structural model revealed a reduced risk of MACCEs associated with good adherence to CPAP (hazard ratio, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.52-0.92]).

Conclusions and Relevance

Adherence to CPAP was associated with a reduced MACCE recurrence risk, suggesting that treatment adherence is a key factor in secondary cardiovascular prevention in patients with OSA.

Perioperative Factors Associated With Postoperative Delirium in Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgery: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

Importance

Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common and serious complication after surgery. Various predisposing factors are associated with POD, but their magnitude and importance using an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis have not been assessed.

Objective

To identify perioperative factors associated with POD and assess their relative prognostic value among adults undergoing noncardiac surgery.

Data Sources

MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL from inception to May 2020.

Study Selection

Studies were included that (1) enrolled adult patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, (2) assessed perioperative risk factors for POD, and (3) measured the incidence of delirium (measured using a validated approach). Data were analyzed in 2020.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Individual patient data were pooled from 21 studies and 1-stage meta-analysis was performed using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression after a multivariable imputation via chained equations model to impute missing data.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The end point of interest was POD diagnosed up to 10 days after a procedure. A wide range of perioperative risk factors was considered as potentially associated with POD.

Results

A total of 192 studies met the eligibility criteria, and IPD were acquired from 21 studies that enrolled 8382 patients. Almost 1 in 5 patients developed POD (18%), and an increased risk of POD was associated with American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) status 4 (odds ratio [OR], 2.43; 95% CI, 1.42-4.14), older age (OR for 65-85 years, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.16-3.29; OR for >85 years, 6.24; 95% CI, 4.65-8.37), low body mass index (OR for body mass index <18.5, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.64-3.09), history of delirium (OR, 3.9; 95% CI, 2.69-5.66), preoperative cognitive impairment (OR, 3.99; 95% CI, 2.94-5.43), and preoperative C-reactive protein levels (OR for 5-10 mg/dL, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.59-3.50; OR for >10 mg/dL, 3.56; 95% CI, 2.46-5.17). Completing a college degree or higher was associated with a decreased likelihood of developing POD (OR 0.45; 95% CI, 0.28-0.72).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data, several important factors associated with POD were found that may help identify patients at high risk and may have utility in clinical practice to inform patients and caregivers about the expected risk of developing delirium after surgery. Future studies should explore strategies to reduce delirium after surgery.

Cortical morphology in patients with the deficit and non-deficit syndrome of schizophrenia: a worldwide meta- and mega-analyses

Converging evidence suggests that schizophrenia (SZ) with primary, enduring negative symptoms (i.e., Deficit SZ (DSZ)) represents a distinct entity within the SZ spectrum while the neurobiological underpinnings remain undetermined. In the largest dataset of DSZ and Non-Deficit (NDSZ), we conducted a meta-analysis of data from 1560 individuals (168 DSZ, 373 NDSZ, 1019 Healthy Controls (HC)) and a mega-analysis of a subsampled data from 944 individuals (115 DSZ, 254 NDSZ, 575 HC) collected across 9 worldwide research centers of the ENIGMA SZ Working Group (8 in the mega-analysis), to clarify whether they differ in terms of cortical morphology. In the meta-analysis, sites computed effect sizes for differences in cortical thickness and surface area between SZ and control groups using a harmonized pipeline. In the mega-analysis, cortical values of individuals with schizophrenia and control participants were analyzed across sites using mixed-model ANCOVAs. The meta-analysis of cortical thickness showed a converging pattern of widespread thinner cortex in fronto-parietal regions of the left hemisphere in both DSZ and NDSZ, when compared to HC. However, DSZ have more pronounced thickness abnormalities than NDSZ, mostly involving the right fronto-parietal cortices. As for surface area, NDSZ showed differences in fronto-parietal-temporo-occipital cortices as compared to HC, and in temporo-occipital cortices as compared to DSZ. Although DSZ and NDSZ show widespread overlapping regions of thinner cortex as compared to HC, cortical thinning seems to better typify DSZ, being more extensive and bilateral, while surface area alterations are more evident in NDSZ. Our findings demonstrate for the first time that DSZ and NDSZ are characterized by different neuroimaging phenotypes, supporting a nosological distinction between DSZ and NDSZ and point toward the separate disease hypothesis.

Efficacy of Silexan in patients with anxiety disorders: a meta-analysis of randomized, placebo-controlled trials

INTRODUCTION

We report on a meta-analysis of Silexan, a proprietary active substance produced from Lavandula angustifolia, in subthreshold anxiety, mixed anxiety and depressive disorder (MADD), and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD).

METHODS

The present analyses are based on all currently completed 5 double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials investigating Silexan in adult out-patients who received Silexan 1 × 80 mg/day or placebo for ten weeks according to random assignment (n = 1213). Efficacy was assessed based on the Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAMA), several anxiety self-rating scales, the Clinical Global Impression (CGI) scale, and the Short Form-36 (SF-36) health status questionnaire.

RESULTS

After ten weeks' treatment, Silexan was significantly superior to placebo in reducing the HAMA total score (including the psychic and somatic anxiety sub-scores) and self-rated anxiety. Based on a ≥ 50% HAMA total score reduction, the responder rate ratio was 1.34 favoring Silexan, and the rate ratio of subjects much or very much improved according to the CGI was 1.51. Silexan was also significantly superior in improving the physical and mental health summary scores of the SF-36. There were no significant between-group differences concerning the occurrence of adverse events (AEs), serious AEs, and premature withdrawal due to AEs.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis demonstrates that Silexan exerts significant anxiolytic effects in subthreshold anxiety, GAD and MADD that were consistently reflected in investigator ratings and patient-reported outcomes, including improvement of health-related life-quality, while showing favorable tolerability and safety.

Use of Antihypertensives, Blood Pressure, and Estimated Risk of Dementia in Late Life: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis

Importance

The utility of antihypertensives and ideal blood pressure (BP) for dementia prevention in late life remains unclear and highly contested.

Objectives

To assess the associations of hypertension history, antihypertensive use, and baseline measured BP in late life (age >60 years) with dementia and the moderating factors of age, sex, and racial group.

Data Source and Study Selection

Longitudinal, population-based studies of aging participating in the Cohort Studies of Memory in an International Consortium (COSMIC) group were included. Participants were individuals without dementia at baseline aged 60 to 110 years and were based in 15 different countries (US, Brazil, Australia, China, Korea, Singapore, Central African Republic, Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Sweden, and Greece).

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Participants were grouped in 3 categories based on previous diagnosis of hypertension and baseline antihypertensive use: healthy controls, treated hypertension, and untreated hypertension. Baseline systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) were treated as continuous variables. Reporting followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses of Individual Participant Data reporting guidelines.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The key outcome was all-cause dementia. Mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the associations between the exposures and the key outcome variable. The association between dementia and baseline BP was modeled using nonlinear natural splines. The main analysis was a partially adjusted Cox proportional hazards model controlling for age, age squared, sex, education, racial group, and a random effect for study. Sensitivity analyses included a fully adjusted analysis, a restricted analysis of those individuals with more than 5 years of follow-up data, and models examining the moderating factors of age, sex, and racial group.

Results

The analysis included 17 studies with 34 519 community dwelling older adults (20 160 [58.4%] female) with a mean (SD) age of 72.5 (7.5) years and a mean (SD) follow-up of 4.3 (4.3) years. In the main, partially adjusted analysis including 14 studies, individuals with untreated hypertension had a 42% increased risk of dementia compared with healthy controls (hazard ratio [HR], 1.42; 95% CI 1.15-1.76; P = .001) and 26% increased risk compared with individuals with treated hypertension (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.03-1.53; P = .02). Individuals with treated hypertension had no significant increased dementia risk compared with healthy controls (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.99-1.28; P = .07). The association of antihypertensive use or hypertension status with dementia did not vary with baseline BP. There was no significant association of baseline SBP or DBP with dementia risk in any of the analyses. There were no significant interactions with age, sex, or racial group for any of the analyses.

Conclusions and Relevance

This individual patient data meta-analysis of longitudinal cohort studies found that antihypertensive use was associated with decreased dementia risk compared with individuals with untreated hypertension through all ages in late life. Individuals with treated hypertension had no increased risk of dementia compared with healthy controls.

Challenges In Performing An Individual Participant-level Data Meta-analysis

Individual participant-data meta-analysis (IPDMA) uses data at the participant level to synthesize evidence on clinical decision-making. We discuss the differences from aggregate-data meta-analysis and the advantages and challenges of IPDMA. IPDMA provides an opportunity to study effect modifiers at the participant level and can reduce bias in comparison to aggregate-data meta-analysis. A challenge with IPDMA is that it often requires considerable effort to obtain all the data, and an inability to obtain data for all the studies can lead to availability bias. PATIENT SUMMARY: Systematic reviews of the literature are performed to summarize available evidence regarding clinical decisions. Here we explain the differences between reviews that use aggregated data from published studies and reviews that use the participant-level data from those studies.

A consensus score to combine inferences from multiple centres

Experiments in which data are collected by multiple independent resources, including multicentre data, different laboratories within the same centre or with different operators, are challenging in design, data collection and interpretation. Indeed, inconsistent results across the resources are possible. In this paper, we propose a statistical solution for the problem of multi-resource consensus inferences when statistical results from different resources show variation in magnitude, directionality, and significance. Our proposed method allows combining the corrected p-values, effect sizes and the total number of centres into a global consensus score. We apply this method to obtain a consensus score for data collected by the International Mouse Phenotyping Consortium (IMPC) across 11 centres. We show the application of this method to detect sexual dimorphism in haematological data and discuss the suitability of the methodology.

Calculating the power of a planned individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised trials to examine a treatment-covariate interaction with a time-to-event outcome

Before embarking on an individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) project, researchers should consider the power of their planned IPDMA conditional on the studies promising their IPD and their characteristics. Such power estimates help inform whether the IPDMA project is worth the time and funding investment, before IPD are collected. Here, we suggest how to estimate the power of a planned IPDMA of randomised trials aiming to examine treatment-covariate interactions at the participant-level (i.e., treatment effect modifiers). We focus on a time-to-event (survival) outcome with a binary or continuous covariate, and propose an approximate analytic power calculation that conditions on the actual characteristics of trials, for example, in terms of sample sizes and covariate distributions. The proposed method has five steps: (i) extracting the following aggregate data for each group in each trial-the number of participants and events, the mean and SD for each continuous covariate, and the proportion of participants in each category for each binary covariate; (ii) specifying a minimally important interaction size; (iii) deriving an approximate estimate of Fisher's information matrix for each trial and the corresponding variance of the interaction estimate per trial, based on assuming an exponential survival distribution; (iv) deriving the estimated variance of the summary interaction estimate from the planned IPDMA, under a common-effect assumption, and (v) calculating the power of the IPDMA based on a two-sided Wald test. Stata and R code are provided and a real example provided for illustration. Further evaluation in real examples and simulations is needed.

Assessing the risk of symptom worsening in psilocybin-assisted therapy for depression: A systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis

We conducted a meta-analysis using individual participant data from three, two-dose psilocybin trials for depression (N = 102) with the aim of assessing the risk of symptom worsening. Clinically significant symptom worsening occurred for a minority of participants in the psilocybin and escitalopram conditions (∼10%) and for a majority of participants in the waitlist condition (63.6%). Using data from the two trials with control arms, the psilocybin arm showed a lower likelihood of symptom worsening versus waitlist, and no difference in the likelihood of symptom worsening versus escitalopram. The limitation of a relatively small sample size should be addressed in future studies.

From the Individual to the Group: Using Idiographic Analyses and Two-Stage Random Effects Meta-Analysis to Obtain Population Level Inferences for within-Person Processes

In psychology, the use of portable technology and wearable devices to ease participant burden in data collection is on the rise. This creates increased interest in collecting real-time or near real-time data from individuals within their natural environments. As a result, vast amounts of observational time series data are generated. Often, motivation for collecting this data hinges on understanding within-person processes that underlie psychological phenomena. Motivated by the body of Dr. Peter Molenaar's life work calling for analytical approaches that consider potential heterogeneity and non-ergodicity, the focus of this paper is on using idiographic analyses to generate population inferences for within-person processes. Meta-analysis techniques using one-stage and two-stage random effects meta-analysis as implemented in single-case experimental designs are presented. The case for preferring a two-stage approach for meta-analysis of single-subject observational time series data is made and demonstrated using an empirical example. This provides a novel implementation of the methodology as prior implementations focus on applications to short time series with experimental designs. Inspired by Dr. Molenaar's work, we describe how an approach, two-stage random effects meta-analysis (2SRE-MA), aligns with recent calls to consider idiographic approaches when making population-level inferences regarding within-person processes.

Statistical Learning Methods for Neuroimaging Data Analysis with Applications

The aim of this review is to provide a comprehensive survey of statistical challenges in neuroimaging data analysis, from neuroimaging techniques to large-scale neuroimaging studies and statistical learning methods. We briefly review eight popular neuroimaging techniques and their potential applications in neuroscience research and clinical translation. We delineate four themes of neuroimaging data and review major image processing analysis methods for processing neuroimaging data at the individual level. We briefly review four large-scale neuroimaging-related studies and a consortium on imaging genomics and discuss four themes of neuroimaging data analysis at the population level. We review nine major population-based statistical analysis methods and their associated statistical challenges and present recent progress in statistical methodology to address these challenges.

Do brief motivational interventions increase motivation for change in drinking among college students? A two-step meta-analysis of individual participant data

BACKGROUND

Brief motivational interventions (BMIs) are one of the most effective individually focused alcohol intervention strategies for college students. Despite the central theoretical role of motivation for change in BMIs, it is unclear whether BMIs increase motivation to change drinking behavior. We conducted a two-step meta-analysis of individual participant data (IPD) to examine whether BMIs increase motivation for change. N = 5903;59% women, 72% White) from Project INTEGRATE. The BMIs included individually delivered motivational interviewing with personalized feedback (MI + PF), stand-alone personalized feedback (PF), and group-based motivational interviewing (GMI).

METHODS

We included 15 trials of BMI (N = 5903;59% women, 72% White) from Project INTEGRATE. The BMIs included individually-delivered motivational interviewing with personalized feedback (MI + PF), stand-alone personalized feedback (PF), and group-based motivational interviewing (GMI). Different measures and responses used in the original trials were harmonized. Effect size estimates were derived from a model that adjusted for baseline motivation and demographic variables for each trial (step 1) and subsequently combined in a random-effects meta-analysis (step 2).

RESULTS

The overall intervention effect of BMIs on motivation for change was not statistically significant (standard mean difference [SMD]: 0.026, 95% CI: [-0.001, 0.053], p = 0.06, k = 19 comparisons). Of the three subtypes of BMIs, GMI, which tended to provide motivation-targeted content, had a statistically significant intervention effect on motivation, compared with controls (SMD: 0.055, 95% CI: [0.007, 0.103], p = 0.025, k = 5). By contrast, there was no evidence that MI + PF (SMD = 0.04, 95% CI: [-0.02, 0.10], k = 6, p = 0.20) nor PF increased motivation (SMD = 0.005, 95% CI: [-0.028, 0.039], k = 8, p = 0.75), compared with controls. Post hoc meta-regression analysis suggested that motivation sharply decreased each month within the first 3 months postintervention (b = -0.050, z = -2.80, p = 0.005 for k = 14).

CONCLUSIONS

Although BMIs provide motivational content and normative feedback and are assumed to motivate behavior change, the results do not wholly support the hypothesis that BMIs improve motivation for change. Changing motivation is difficult to assess during and following interventions, but it is still a theoretically important clinical endpoint. Further, the evidence cautiously suggests that changing motivation may be achievable, especially if motivation-targeted content components are provided.

Diet, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 80 countries

AIMS

To develop a healthy diet score that is associated with health outcomes and is globally applicable using data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study and replicate it in five independent studies on a total of 245 000 people from 80 countries.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A healthy diet score was developed in 147 642 people from the general population, from 21 countries in the PURE study, and the consistency of the associations of the score with events was examined in five large independent studies from 70 countries. The healthy diet score was developed based on six foods each of which has been associated with a significantly lower risk of mortality [i.e. fruit, vegetables, nuts, legumes, fish, and dairy (mainly whole-fat); range of scores, 0-6]. The main outcome measures were all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events [cardiovascular disease (CVD)]. During a median follow-up of 9.3 years in PURE, compared with a diet score of ≤1 points, a diet score of ≥5 points was associated with a lower risk of mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.70; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-0.77)], CVD (HR 0.82; 0.75-0.91), myocardial infarction (HR 0.86; 0.75-0.99), and stroke (HR 0.81; 0.71-0.93). In three independent studies in vascular patients, similar results were found, with a higher diet score being associated with lower mortality (HR 0.73; 0.66-0.81), CVD (HR 0.79; 0.72-0.87), myocardial infarction (HR 0.85; 0.71-0.99), and a non-statistically significant lower risk of stroke (HR 0.87; 0.73-1.03). Additionally, in two case-control studies, a higher diet score was associated with lower first myocardial infarction [odds ratio (OR) 0.72; 0.65-0.80] and stroke (OR 0.57; 0.50-0.65). A higher diet score was associated with a significantly lower risk of death or CVD in regions with lower than with higher gross national incomes (P for heterogeneity <0.0001). The PURE score showed slightly stronger associations with death or CVD than several other common diet scores (P < 0.001 for each comparison).

CONCLUSION

A diet comprised of higher amounts of fruit, vegetables, nuts, legumes, fish, and whole-fat dairy is associated with lower CVD and mortality in all world regions, especially in countries with lower income where consumption of these foods is low.

Nonlinear effects and effect modification at the participant-level in IPD meta-analysis part 2: methodological guidance is available

OBJECTIVES

To review methodological guidance for nonlinear covariate-outcome associations (NL), and linear effect modification and nonlinear effect modification (LEM and NLEM) at the participant level in individual participant data meta-analyses (IPDMAs) and their power requirements.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, PsycINFO and the Cochrane Library to identify methodology publications on IPDMA of LEM, NL or NLEM (PROSPERO CRD42019126768).

RESULTS

Through screening 6,466 records we identified 54 potential articles of which 23 full texts were relevant. Nine further relevant publications were published before or after the literature search and were added. Of these 32 references, 21 articles considered LEM, 6 articles NL or NLEM and 6 articles described sample size calculations. A book described all four. Sample size may be calculated through simulation or closed form. Assessments of LEM or NLEM at the participant level need to be based on within-trial information alone. Nonlinearity (NL or NLEM) can be modeled using polynomials or splines to avoid categorization.

CONCLUSION

Detailed methodological guidance on IPDMA of effect modification at participant-level is available. However, methodology papers for sample size and nonlinearity are rarer and may not cover all scenarios. On these aspects, further guidance is needed.