A comparison of different methods to adjust survival curves for confounders

The combination of kidney function variables with cell cycle arrest biomarkers identifies distinct subphenotypes of sepsis-associated acute kidney injury: a post-hoc analysis (the PHENAKI study)

BACKGROUND

The severity and course of sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) are correlated with the mortality rate. Early detection of SA-AKI subphenotypes might facilitate the rapid provision of individualized care.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this post-hoc analysis of a multicenter prospective study, we combined conventional kidney function variables with serial measurements of urine (tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-2 [TIMP-2])* (insulin-like growth factor-binding protein [IGFBP7]) at 0, 6, 12, and 24 h) and then using an unsupervised hierarchical clustering of principal components (HCPC) approach to identify different phenotypes of SA-AKI. We then compared the subphenotypes with regard to a composite outcome of in-hospital death or the initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT).

RESULTS

We included 184 patients presenting SA-AKI within 6 h of the initiation of catecholamines. Three distinct subphenotypes were identified: subphenotype A (99 patients) was characterized by a normal urine output (UO), a low SCr and a low [TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7] level; subphenotype B (74 patients) was characterized by existing chronic kidney disease (CKD), a higher SCr, a low UO, and an intermediate [TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7] level; and subphenotype C was characterized by very low UO, a very high [TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7] level, and an intermediate SCr level. With subphenotype A as the reference, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) [95%CI] for the composite outcome was 3.77 [1.92-7.42] (p < 0.001) for subphenotype B and 4.80 [1.67-13.82] (p = 0.004) for subphenotype C.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining conventional kidney function variables with urine measurements of [TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7] might help to identify distinct SA-AKI subphenotypes with different short-term courses and survival rates.

A population-based study on trajectories of HER2 status during neoadjuvant chemotherapy for early breast cancer and metastatic progression

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the distribution and changes of HER2 status in untreated tumours, in residual disease and in metastasis, and their long-term prognostic implications.

METHODS

This is a population-based cohort study of patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer during 2007-2020 in the Stockholm-Gotland region which comprises 25% of the entire Swedish population. Information was extracted from the National Breast Cancer Registry and electronic patient charts to minimize data missingness and misclassification.

RESULTS

In total, 2494 patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy, of which 2309 had available pretreatment HER2 status. Discordance rates were 29.9% between primary and residual disease (kappa = 0.534), 31.2% between primary tumour and metastasis (kappa = 0.512) and 33.3% between residual disease to metastasis (kappa = 0.483). Adjusted survival curves differed between primary HER2 0 and HER2-low disease (p < 0.001), with the former exhibiting an early peak in risk for death which eventually declined below the risk of HER2-low. Across all disease settings, increasing the number of biopsies increased the likelihood of detecting HER2-low status.

CONCLUSION

HER2 status changes during neoadjuvant chemotherapy and metastatic progression, and the long-term behaviours of HER2 0 and HER2-low disease differ, underscoring the need for obtaining tissue biopsies and for extended follow-up in breast cancer studies.

Disease-associated comorbidities, medication records and anthropometric measures in adults with Duchenne muscular dystrophy

We investigated the comorbidities, associated factors, and the relationship between anthropometric measures and respiratory function and functional abilities in adults with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). This was a single-centre cross-sectional study in genetically diagnosed adults with DMD (>16 years old). Univariate and multivariate analyses identified factors associated with dysphagia, constipation, Body Mass Index (BMI), and weight. Regression analysis explored associations between BMI, weight, and respiratory/motor abilities. We included 112 individuals (23.4 ± 5.2 years old), glucocorticoid-treated 66.1 %. The comorbidities frequency was 61.6 % scoliosis (61.0 % of them had spinal surgery), 36.6 % dysphagia, 36.6 % constipation, and 27.8 % urinary conditions. The use of glucocorticoids delayed the time to spinal surgery. The univariate analysis revealed associations between dysphagia and constipation with age, lack of glucocorticoid treatment, and lower respiratory and motor function. In the multivariate analysis, impaired cough ability remained as the factor consistently linked to both conditions. Constipation associated with lower BMI and weight. BMI and weight positively correlated with respiratory parameters, but they did not associate with functional abilities. Glucocorticoids reduce the frequency of comorbidities in adults with DMD. The ability to cough can help identifying dysphagia and constipation. Lower BMI and weight in individuals with DMD with compromised respiratory function may suggest a higher calories requirement.

Estimating survival in data-driven phenotypes of mental health symptoms and peripheral biomarkers: A prospective study

Background

Chronic psychological stress has widespread implications, including heightened mortality risk, mental and physical health conditions, and socioeconomic consequences. Stratified precision psychiatry shows promise in mitigating these effects by leveraging clinical heterogeneity to personalize interventions. However, little attention has been given to patient self-report.

Methods

We addressed this by combining stress-related self-report measures with peripheral biomarkers in a latent profile analysis and survival model. The latent profile models were estimated in a representative U.S. cohort (n = 1255; mean age = 57 years; 57% female) and cross-validated in Tokyo, Japan (n = 377; mean age = 55 years; 56% female).

Results

We identified three distinct groups: "Good Mental Health", "Poor Mental Health", and "High Inflammation". Compared to the "Good Mental Health" group, the "High Inflammation" and "Poor Mental Health" groups had an increased risk of mortality, but did not differ in mortality risk from each other.

Conclusions

This study emphasizes the role of patient self-report in stratified psychiatry.

Pulsed-field vs cryoballoon vs radiofrequency ablation: Outcomes after pulmonary vein isolation in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Pulsed-field ablation (PFA) has shown promising data in terms of safety and procedural efficiency for pulmonary vein isolation (PVI), with similar long-term outcomes compared to radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and cryoballoon ablation (CBA) in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF).

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to compare the procedural and long-term outcomes in patients with persistent AF undergoing PVI using PFA, CBA, or RFA.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with persistent AF undergoing first PVI with PFA, CBA, or RFA were included. Patients underwent 7-day Holter electrocardiography at 3, 6, and 12 months postablation. The primary outcome was recurrence of any atrial arrhythmia after a 90-day blanking period. Safety outcomes included the composite of in-hospital major adverse events.

RESULTS

A total of 533 patients with persistent AF underwent PVI using PFA (n = 214, 39%), CBA (n = 190, 36%), or RFA (n = 129, 24%). Procedures with PFA guided by fluoroscopy were shorter than those with CBA (median 60 minutes; interquartile range [IQR] 53-80 minutes vs 84 minutes; IQR 68-101 minutes; P ≤ .001), and procedures with PFA in combination with 3-dimensional electroanatomic mapping were shorter than those with RFA (median 101 minutes; IQR 85-126 minutes vs 171 minutes; IQR 141-204 minutes; P < .001). Acute safety events occurred in 2.3%, 2.6%, and 0.8% in the PFA, CBA, and RFA groups, respectively (P = .545). The 1-year confounder-adjusted estimate for freedom from atrial arrhythmias was 62.1% for CBA, 55.3% for PFA, and 48.3% for RFA (CBA vs PFA: P = .79; CBA vs RFA: P = .009; PFA vs RFA: P = .010).

CONCLUSION

In patients with persistent AF undergoing first PVI, 1-year confounder-adjusted outcomes are better with PFA and CBA than with RFA.

Semiparametric g-computation for survival outcomes with time-fixed exposures: An illustration

PURPOSE

Generalized (g-) computation is a useful tool for causal inference in epidemiology. However, in settings when the outcome is a survival time subject to right censoring, the standard pooled logistic regression approach to g-computation requires arbitrary discretization of time, parametric modeling of the baseline hazard function, and the need to expand one's dataset. We illustrate a semiparametric Breslow estimator for g-computation with time-fixed treatments and survival outcomes that is not subject to these limitations.

METHODS

We compare performance of the Breslow g-computation estimator to the pooled logistic g-computation estimator in simulations and illustrate both approaches to estimate the effect of a 3-drug vs 2-drug antiretroviral therapy regimen among people with HIV.

RESULTS

In simulations, both approaches performed well at the end of follow-up. The pooled logistic approach was biased at times between the endpoints of the discrete time intervals used, while the Breslow approach was not. In the example, both approaches estimated a 1-year risk difference of about 6 % in favor of the 3-drug regimen, but the shape of the survival curves differed.

CONCLUSIONS

The Breslow g-computation estimator of counterfactual risk functions does not rely on strong parametric assumptions about the time-to-event distribution or onerous dataset expansions.

Multiple air pollutant exposure is associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality in dialysis patients: a French registry-based nationwide study

Background

Little is known about the effect of combined exposure to different air pollutants on mortality in dialysis patients. This study aimed to investigate the association of multiple exposures to air pollutants with all-cause and cause-specific death in dialysis patients.

Materials and methods

This registry-based nationwide cohort study included 90,373 adult kidney failure patients initiating maintenance dialysis between 2012 and 2020 identified from the French REIN registry. Estimated mean annual municipality levels of PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 between 2009 and 2020 were combined in different composite air pollution scores to estimate each participant's exposure at the residential place one to 3 years before dialysis initiation. Adjusted cause-specific Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) per interquartile range (IQR) greater air pollution score. Effect measure modification was assessed for age, sex, dialysis care model, and baseline comorbidities.

Results

Higher levels of the main air pollution score were associated with a greater rate of all-cause deaths (HR, 1.082 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.057-1.104] per IQR increase), regardless of the exposure lag. This association was also confirmed in cause-specific analyses, most markedly for infectious mortality (HR, 1.686 [95% CI, 1.470-1.933]). Sensitivity analyses with alternative composite air pollution scores showed consistent findings. Subgroup analyses revealed a significantly stronger association among women and fewer comorbid patients.

Discussion

Long-term multiple air pollutant exposure is associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality among patients receiving maintenance dialysis, suggesting that air pollution may be a significant contributor to the increasing trend of CKD-attributable mortality worldwide.

The relationship between low levels of albuminuria and mortality among adults without major cardiovascular risk factors

AIMS

The determine if elevated levels of albuminuria within the low range (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio, UACR <30 mg/g) are linked to cardiovascular death in adults lacking major cardiovascular risk factors.

METHODS

The association between UACR and cardiovascular mortality was investigated among 12,835 participants in the 1999-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey using Cox proportional hazard models and confounder-adjusted survival curves. We excluded participants with baseline cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, pre-diabetes, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60ml/min/1.73m2, currently pregnant, and those who had received dialysis in the last year.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 12.3 years, 110 and 621 participants experienced cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. In multivariable-adjusted models, each doubling of UACR was associated with a 36% higher risk of cardiovascular death [HR 1.36 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.82)] and a 24% higher risk of all-cause mortality [HR 1.24 (95% CI 1.10-1.39)]. The 15-year adjusted cumulative incidences of cardiovascular mortality were 0.91%, 0.99%, and 2.1% for UACR levels of <4.18 mg/g, 4.18 to <6.91 mg/g, and ≥6.91 mg/g, respectively. The 15-year adjusted cumulative incidences of all-cause mortality were 5.1%, 6.1%, and 7.4% for UACR levels of <4.18 mg/g, 4.18 to <6.91 mg/g, and ≥6.91 mg/g, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Adults with elevated levels of albuminuria within the low range (UACR <30 mg/g) and no major cardiovascular risk factors had elevated risks of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The risks increased linearly with higher albuminuria levels. This emphasizes a risk gradient across all albuminuria levels, even within the supposedly normal range, adding to the existing evidence.

Functional abilities, respiratory and cardiac function in a large cohort of adults with Duchenne muscular dystrophy treated with glucocorticoids

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The transition to adult services, and subsequent glucocorticoid management, is critical in adults with Duchenne muscular dystrophy. This study aims (1) to describe treatment, functional abilities, respiratory and cardiac status during transition to adulthood and adult stages; and (2) to explore the association between glucocorticoid treatment after loss of ambulation (LOA) and late-stage clinical outcomes.

METHODS

This was a retrospective single-centre study on individuals with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (≥16 years old) between 1986 and 2022. Logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards models and survival analyses were conducted utilizing data from clinical records.

RESULTS

In all, 112 individuals were included. Mean age was 23.4 ± 5.2 years and mean follow-up was 18.5 ± 5.5 years. At last assessment, 47.2% were on glucocorticoids; the mean dose of prednisone was 0.38 ± 0.13 mg/kg/day and of deflazacort 0.43 ± 0.16 mg/kg/day. At age 16 years, motor function limitations included using a manual wheelchair (89.7%), standing (87.9%), transferring from a wheelchair (86.2%) and turning in bed (53.4%); 77.5% had a peak cough flow <270 L/min, 53.3% a forced vital capacity percentage of predicted <50% and 40.3% a left ventricular ejection fraction <50%. Glucocorticoids after LOA reduced the risk and delayed the time to difficulties balancing in the wheelchair, loss of hand to mouth function, forced vital capacity percentage of predicted <30% and forced vital capacity <1 L and were associated with lower frequency of left ventricular ejection fraction <50%, without differences between prednisone and deflazacort. Glucocorticoid dose did not differ by functional, respiratory or cardiac status.

CONCLUSION

Glucocorticoids after LOA preserve late-stage functional abilities, respiratory and cardiac function. It is suggested using functional abilities, respiratory and cardiac status at transition stages for adult services planning.

Racialized Inequities in Knee Arthroplasty Receipt After Osteoarthritis Diagnosis in the US Military Health System

OBJECTIVE

The goal was to evaluate institutional inequities in the US Military Health System in knee arthroplasty receipt within three years of knee osteoarthritis diagnosis when accounting for other treatments received (eg, physical therapy, medications).

METHODS

In this retrospective observational cohort study, medical record data of patients (n = 29,734) who received a primary osteoarthritis diagnosis in the US Military Health System between January 2016 and January 2020 were analyzed. Data included receipt of physical therapy one year before diagnosis and up to three years after diagnosis, prediagnosis opioid and nonopioid prescription receipt, health-related factors associated with levels of racism, and the primary outcome, knee arthroplasty receipt within three years after diagnosis.

RESULTS

In a generalized additive model with time-varying covariates, Asian and Pacific Islander (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.45-0.74), Black (IRR 0.52, 95%CI 0.46-0.59), and Latine (IRR 0.66, 95%CI 0.52-0.85) patients experienced racialized inequities in knee arthroplasty receipt, relative to white patients (all P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In the present sample, Asian and Pacific Islander, Black, and Latine patients were significantly less likely to receive a knee arthroplasty, relative to white patients. Taken together, system-level resources are needed to identify and address mechanisms underlying institutional inequities in knee arthroplasty receipt, such as factors related to systemic and structural, institutional, and personally mediated racism.

Association of Albuminuria With Chronic Kidney Disease Progression in Persons With Chronic Kidney Disease and Normoalbuminuria : A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Albuminuria is a major risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression, especially when categorized as moderate (30 to 300 mg/g) or severe (>300 mg/g). However, there are limited data on the prognostic value of albuminuria within the normoalbuminuric range (<30 mg/g) in persons with CKD.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the increase in the cumulative incidence of CKD progression with greater baseline levels of albuminuria among persons with CKD who had normoalbuminuria (<30 mg/g).

DESIGN

Multicenter prospective cohort study.

SETTING

7 U.S. clinical centers.

PARTICIPANTS

1629 participants meeting criteria from the CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) study with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], 20 to 70 mL/min/1.73 m2) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) less than 30 mg/g.

MEASUREMENTS

Baseline spot urine albumin divided by spot urine creatinine to calculate UACR as the exposure variable. The 10-year adjusted cumulative incidences of CKD progression (composite of 50% eGFR decline or kidney failure [dialysis or kidney transplantation]) from confounder adjusted survival curves using the G-formula.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 9.8 years, 182 of 1629 participants experienced CKD progression. The 10-year adjusted cumulative incidences of CKD progression were 8.7% (95% CI, 5.9% to 11.6%), 11.5% (CI, 8.8% to 14.3%), and 19.5% (CI, 15.4% to 23.5%) for UACR levels of 0 to less than 5 mg/g, 5 to less than 15 mg/g, and 15 mg/g or more, respectively. Comparing persons with UACR 15 mg/g or more to those with UACR 5 to less than 15 mg/g and 0 to less than 5 mg/g, the absolute risk differences were 7.9% (CI, 3.0% to 12.7%) and 10.7% (CI, 5.8% to 15.6%), respectively. The 10-year adjusted cumulative incidence increased linearly based on baseline UACR levels.

LIMITATION

UACR was measured once.

CONCLUSION

Persons with CKD and normoalbuminuria (<30 mg/g) had excess risk for CKD progression, which increased in a linear fashion with higher levels of albuminuria.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

None.

Patient-specific risk factors for reintervention following primary endovascular treatment of iliac artery disease

OBJECTIVE

Predictive models for reintervention may guide clinicians to optimize selection, education, and follow-up of patients undergoing endovascular iliac revascularization. Although the impact of lesion- and device-related characteristics on iliac restenosis and reintervention risk is well-defined, data on patient-specific risk factors are scarce and conflicting. This study aimed to explore the value of patient-related factors in predicting the need for clinically driven target-vessel revascularization (CD-TVR) in patients undergoing primary endovascular treatment of iliac artery disease.

METHODS

Consecutively enrolled patients undergoing endovascular revascularization for symptomatic iliac artery disease at a tertiary vascular referral center between January 2008 and June 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Primary and secondary outcomes were CD-TVR occurrence within 24 months and time to CD-TVR, respectively. Patients who died or did not require CD-TVR within 24 months were censored at the date of death or at 730 days, respectively. Multiple imputation was used to account for missing data in primary analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 1538 iliac interventions were performed in 1113 patients (26% females; 68 years). CD-TVR occurred in 108 limbs (74 patients; 7.0%) with a median time to CD-TVR of 246 days. On multivariable analysis, increasing age was associated with lower likelihood of CD-TVR (odds ratio [OR], 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50-0.83; P = .001) and decreased risk of CD-TVR at any given time (hazard ratio [HR], 0.66; 95% CI, 0.52-0.84; P = .001). Similarly, a lower likelihood of CD-TVR (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.59-0.95; P = .017) and decreased risk of CD-TVR at any given time (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.58-0.93; P = .009) were observed with higher glomerular filtration rates. Lastly, revascularization of common vs external iliac artery disease was associated with lower likelihood of CD-TVR (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.24-0.93; P = .030) and decreased risk of CD-TVR at any given time (HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.25-0.92; P = .027). No associations were observed between traditional cardiovascular risk factors (sex, hypertension, higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, higher hemoglobin A1c, smoking) and CD-TVR.

CONCLUSIONS

In this retrospective cohort study, younger age, impaired kidney function, and external iliac artery disease were associated with CD-TVR. Traditional markers of cardiovascular risk were not seen to predict reintervention.

Effectiveness of allergen immunotherapy with house dust mite extract for pediatric bronchial asthma

Aim: We compared the effectiveness of rush subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) and sublingual immunotherapy (SLIT) using standardized house dust mite (HDM) extract for pediatric bronchial asthma (BA). Methods: We followed the pediatric BA treatment score during 3 years of treatment. We assessed the median time to no longer requiring long-term control pharmacotherapy (LTCP) for BA (LTCP-free). We compared the outcomes after adjustment for confounding factors and propensity score matching. Results: Patients in the HDM SCIT group achieved the LTCP-free status significantly earlier than those in the HDM SLIT group after adjustment for confounding factors and propensity score matching. Conclusion: Patients treated for pediatric BA with rush HDM SCIT had earlier onset of therapeutic effects than those with HDM SLIT.

Screening Implications for Distribution of Colorectal Cancer Subsite by Age and Role of Flexible Sigmoidoscopy

Objectives: The effectiveness of colonoscopy to reduce colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality is extrapolated from cohort studies in the absence of randomized controlled trial (RCT) data, whereas flexible sigmoidoscopy is supported by RCT data and may be easier to implement in practice. We characterized the anatomic distribution of CRC to determine the proportion that is visible with sigmoidoscopy. Methods: Patients with a primary diagnosis of colorectal adenocarcinoma were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (2000-2020). Tumors from the rectum to the descending colon were categorized as visible by sigmoidoscopy, whereas more proximal tumors required colonoscopy. Differential prognosis between tumor locations, stratified by age groups and stage, was assessed using the overall restricted mean survival time (RMST) at 2, 5, and 10 years. Results: Among 309,466 patients, 58% had tumors visible by sigmoidoscopy, including 73% of those under age 50 (OR 2.10, 95% CI 2.03-2.16 age < 45, OR 2.20, 95% CI 2.13-2.27 age 45-49 versus age ≥ 50). Male sex (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.51-1.56) and Asian or Pacific Islander race (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.56-1.64) were also positively associated with tumors visualizable by sigmoidoscopy. Across age groups, for local disease, RMST was comparable for tumors visible versus not visible on sigmoidoscopy. For regional and metastatic cancer, patients with tumors visible by sigmoidoscopy had improved RMST versus those with more proximal tumors. Conclusions: 58% of CRC arises in locations visible by flexible sigmoidoscopy. Flexible sigmoidoscopy should be considered as a viable option for CRC screening, particularly in younger patients unwilling or unable to undergo colonoscopy.

Cumulative All-Cause Mortality in Diverse Hispanic/Latino Adults : A Prospective, Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

All-cause mortality among diverse Hispanic/Latino groups in the United States and factors underlying mortality differences have not been examined prospectively.

OBJECTIVE

To describe cumulative all-cause mortality (and factors underlying differences) by Hispanic/Latino background, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN

Prospective, multicenter cohort study.

SETTING

Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos.

PARTICIPANTS

15 568 adults aged 18 to 74 years at baseline (2008 to 2011) of Central American, Cuban, Dominican, Mexican, Puerto Rican, South American, and other backgrounds from the Bronx, New York; Chicago, Illinois; Miami, Florida; and San Diego, California.

MEASUREMENTS

Sociodemographic, acculturation-related, lifestyle, and clinical factors were assessed at baseline, and vital status was ascertained through December 2021 (969 deaths; 173 444 person-years of follow-up). Marginally adjusted cumulative all-cause mortality risks (11-year before the pandemic and 2-year during the pandemic) were examined using progressively adjusted Cox regression.

RESULTS

Before the pandemic, 11-year cumulative mortality risks adjusted for age and sex were higher in the Puerto Rican and Cuban groups (6.3% [95% CI, 5.2% to 7.6%] and 5.7% [CI, 5.0% to 6.6%], respectively) and lowest in the South American group (2.4% [CI, 1.7% to 3.5%]). Differences were attenuated with adjustment for lifestyle and clinical factors. During the pandemic, 2-year cumulative mortality risks adjusted for age and sex ranged from 1.1% (CI, 0.6% to 2.0%; South American) to 2.0% (CI, 1.4% to 3.0%; Central American); CIs overlapped across groups. With adjustment for lifestyle factors, 2-year cumulative mortality risks were highest in persons of Central American and Mexican backgrounds and lowest among those of Puerto Rican and Cuban backgrounds.

LIMITATION

Lack of data on race and baseline citizenship status; correlation between Hispanic/Latino background and site.

CONCLUSION

Differences in prepandemic mortality risks across Hispanic/Latino groups were explained by lifestyle and clinical factors. Mortality patterns changed during the pandemic, with higher risks in persons of Central American and Mexican backgrounds than in those of Puerto Rican and Cuban backgrounds.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Organomegalies as a predictive indicator of leukemia cutis in patients with acute myeloid leukemia

BACKGROUND

Leukemia cutis (LC) is an extramedullary acute myeloid leukemia (AML) infiltrate. No previous study has described the clinical characteristics and outcomes of Thai patients diagnosed with AML with LC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a 7-year retrospective case-control study on Thai AML patients at Siriraj Hospital from November 2013 to July 2020. Patients were divided into LC and non-LC groups. Initial clinical presentations and laboratory findings were examined to identify LC-associated factors. Overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS) were assessed. Pathological tissues underwent re-evaluation to validate the LC diagnoses.

RESULTS

The study included 159 patients in a 2:1 ratio (106 non-LC and 53 LC). The LC group had a mean ± SD age of 54.3 ± 15.5 years; females were predominant. Three-fifths of the LC patients had intermediate-risk cytogenetics; 20.4% had an adverse risk, and 10.2% had a favorable risk. Most were classified as AML-M4 and AML-M5. Leukemic nodules were the primary finding in 58.5% of the cases, mainly on the legs. In the multivariate analysis of predictive factors associated with LC, organomegalies, specifically hepatomegaly, and lymphadenopathy, remained significant factors associated with LC [OR 4.45 (95%CI 1.20, 16.50); p = 0.026 and OR 5.48 (95%CI 1.65, 18.20); p = 0.005], respectively. The LC group demonstrated a significantly reduced OS (log-rank test p = 0.002) (median OS of 8.6 months vs. 32.4 months). RFS was considerably lower in the LC group (log-rank test p = 0.001) (median duration of 10.3 months vs. 24.4 months in the non-LC).

CONCLUSIONS

AML patients who developed LC tended to experience notably poorer prognoses. Therefore, it is imperative to consider aggressive treatment options for such individuals. The presence of organomegalies in AML patients serves as a strong predictor of the possible occurrence of LC when accompanied by skin lesions.

HPV-negative head and neck cancers with adverse pathological features carry specific molecular changes that are associated with survival

BACKGROUND

Adverse pathological features following surgery in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are strongly associated with survival and guide adjuvant therapy. We investigated molecular changes associated with these features.

METHODS

We downloaded data from the Cancer Genome Atlas and Cancer Proteome Atlas HNSCC cohorts. We compared tumors positive versus negative for perineural invasion (PNI), lymphovascular invasion (LVI), extracapsular spread (ECS), and positive margins (PSM), with multivariable analysis.

RESULTS

All pathological features were associated with poor survival, as were the following molecular changes: low cyclin E1 (HR = 1.7) and high PKC-alpha (HR = 1.8) in tumors with PNI; six of 13 protein abundance changes with LVI; greater tumor hypoxia and high Raptor (HR = 2.0) and Rictor (HR = 1.6) with ECS; and low p38 (HR = 2.3), high fibronectin (HR = 1.6), low annexin A1 (HR = 3.1), and high caspase-9 (HR = 1.6) abundances with PSM.

CONCLUSIONS

Pathological features in HNSCC carry specific molecular changes that may explain their poor prognostic associations.

Are enterococcal bloodstream infections an independent risk factor for a poorer 5-year survival or just a marker for severity of illness?-The Munich multicentric enterococci cohort

IMPORTANCE

The present study provides a substantial contribution to literature, showing that patients with enterococcal bloodstream infections (BSI) have a lower survival rate than those with Escherichia coli (E. coli) bloodstream infections after adjusting for 17 limiting prognostic factors and excluding patients with a limited life expectancy [metastatic tumor disease, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) (greater than or equal to) 5]. This difference in the 5-year long-term survival was mainly driven by Enterococcus faecium (ECFM) bloodstream infections, with vancomycin resistance not being a significant contributing factor. Our findings imply that E. faecium bloodstream infections seem to be an independent risk factor for poor long-term outcomes. As such, future research should confirm this relationship and prioritize investigating its causality through prospective studies.

High-throughput target trial emulation for Alzheimer's disease drug repurposing with real-world data

Target trial emulation is the process of mimicking target randomized trials using real-world data, where effective confounding control for unbiased treatment effect estimation remains a main challenge. Although various approaches have been proposed for this challenge, a systematic evaluation is still lacking. Here we emulated trials for thousands of medications from two large-scale real-world data warehouses, covering over 10 years of clinical records for over 170 million patients, aiming to identify new indications of approved drugs for Alzheimer's disease. We assessed different propensity score models under the inverse probability of treatment weighting framework and suggested a model selection strategy for improved baseline covariate balancing. We also found that the deep learning-based propensity score model did not necessarily outperform logistic regression-based methods in covariate balancing. Finally, we highlighted five top-ranked drugs (pantoprazole, gabapentin, atorvastatin, fluticasone, and omeprazole) originally intended for other indications with potential benefits for Alzheimer's patients.

Suspected Bronchiectasis and Mortality in Adults With a History of Smoking Who Have Normal and Impaired Lung Function : A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Bronchiectasis in adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with greater mortality. However, whether suspected bronchiectasis-defined as incidental bronchiectasis on computed tomography (CT) images plus clinical manifestation-is associated with increased mortality in adults with a history of smoking with normal spirometry and preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between suspected bronchiectasis and mortality in adults with normal spirometry, PRISm, and obstructive spirometry.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational cohort.

SETTING

The COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) study.

PARTICIPANTS

7662 non-Hispanic Black or White adults, aged 45 to 80 years, with 10 or more pack-years of smoking history. Participants who were former and current smokers were stratified into normal spirometry (n = 3277), PRISm (n = 986), and obstructive spirometry (n = 3399).

MEASUREMENTS

Bronchiectasis identified by CT was ascertained using artificial intelligence-based measurements of an airway-to-artery ratio (AAR) greater than 1 (AAR >1), a measure of bronchial dilatation. The primary outcome of "suspected bronchiectasis" was defined as an AAR >1 of greater than 1% plus 2 of the following: cough, phlegm, dyspnea, and history of 2 or more exacerbations.

RESULTS

Among the 7662 participants (mean age, 60 years; 52% women), 1352 (17.6%) had suspected bronchiectasis. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 2095 (27.3%) died. Ten-year mortality risk was higher in participants with suspected bronchiectasis, compared with those without suspected bronchiectasis (normal spirometry: difference in mortality probability [Pr], 0.15 [95% CI, 0.09 to 0.21]; PRISm: Pr, 0.07 [CI, -0.003 to 0.15]; obstructive spirometry: Pr, 0.06 [CI, 0.03 to 0.09]). When only CT was used to identify bronchiectasis, the differences were attenuated in the normal spirometry (Pr, 0.04 [CI, -0.001 to 0.08]).

LIMITATIONS

Only 2 racial groups were studied. Only 1 measurement was used to define bronchiectasis on CT. Symptoms of suspected bronchiectasis were nonspecific.

CONCLUSION

Suspected bronchiectasis was associated with a heightened risk for mortality in adults with normal and obstructive spirometry.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Visualizing the (Causal) Effect of a Continuous Variable on a Time-To-Event Outcome

Visualization is a key aspect of communicating the results of any study aiming to estimate causal effects. In studies with time-to-event outcomes, the most popular visualization approach is depicting survival curves stratified by the variable of interest. This approach cannot be used when the variable of interest is continuous. Simple workarounds, such as categorizing the continuous covariate and plotting survival curves for each category, can result in misleading depictions of the main effects. Instead, we propose a new graphic, the survival area plot, to directly depict the survival probability over time and as a function of a continuous covariate simultaneously. This plot utilizes g-computation based on a suitable time-to-event model to obtain the relevant estimates. Through the use of g-computation, those estimates can be adjusted for confounding without additional effort, allowing a causal interpretation under the standard causal identifiability assumptions. If those assumptions are not met, the proposed plot may still be used to depict noncausal associations. We illustrate and compare the proposed graphics to simpler alternatives using data from a large German observational study investigating the effect of the Ankle-Brachial Index on survival. To facilitate the usage of these plots, we additionally developed the contsurvplot R-package, which includes all methods discussed in this paper.

Treatment management for BRAF-mutant melanoma patients with tumor recurrence on adjuvant therapy: a multicenter study from the prospective skin cancer registry ADOREG

BACKGROUND

Adjuvant therapy with immune-checkpoint inhibitors (CPI) or BRAF/MEK-directed targeted therapy (TT) improves recurrence-free survival (RFS) for patients with advanced, BRAFV600-mutant (BRAFmut) resected melanoma. However, 40% of these patients will develop distant metastases (DM) within 5 years, which require systemic therapy. Little data exist to guide the choice of upfront adjuvant therapy or treatment management upon DM. This study evaluated the efficacy of subsequent treatments following tumor recurrence upon upfront adjuvant therapy.

METHODS

For this multicenter cohort study, we identified 515 BRAFmut patients with resected stage III melanoma who were treated with PD-1 inhibitors (anti-PD1) or TT in the adjuvant setting. Disease characteristics, treatment regimens, details on tumor recurrence, subsequent treatment management, and survival outcomes were collected within the prospective, real-world skin cancer registry ADOReg. Primary endpoints included progression-free survival (PFS) following DM and best tumor response to first-line (1L) treatments.

RESULTS

Among 515 eligible patients, 273 patients received adjuvant anti-PD1 and 242 adjuvant TT. At a median follow-up of 21 months, 54.6% of anti-PD1 patients and 36.4% of TT patients recurred, while 39.6% (anti-PD1) and 29.3% (TT) developed DM. Risk of recurrence was significantly reduced in patients treated with TT compared with anti-PD1 (adjusted HR 0.52; 95% CI 0.40 to 0.68, p<0.001). Likewise, median RFS was significantly longer in TT-treated patients (31 vs 17 months, p<0.001). Patients who received TT as second adjuvant treatment upon locoregional recurrence had a longer RFS2 as compared with adjuvant CPI (41 vs 6 months, p=0.009). Patients who recurred at distant sites following adjuvant TT showed favorable response rates (42.9%) after switching to 1L ipilimumab+nivolumab (ipi+nivo). Patients with DM during adjuvant anti-PD1 achieved response rates of 58.7% after switching to 1L TT and 35.3% for 1L ipi+nivo. Overall, median PFS was significantly longer in patients who switched treatments for stage IV disease (median PFS 9 vs 5 months, p=0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

BRAFmut melanoma patients who developed DM upon upfront adjuvant therapy achieve favorable tumor control and prolonged PFS after switching treatment modalities in the first-line setting of stage IV disease. Patients with locoregional recurrence benefit from complete resection of recurrence followed by a second adjuvant treatment with TT.

Screening Implications for Distribution of Colorectal Cancer Subsite by Age

Objectives

The effectiveness of colonoscopy to reduce colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality is extrapolated from cohort studies in the absence of randomized controlled trial (RCT) data, whereas flexible sigmoidoscopy is supported by RCT data and may be easier to implement in practice. We characterized the anatomic distribution of CRC to determine the proportion that is visible with sigmoidoscopy.

Methods

Patients with a primary diagnosis of colorectal adenocarcinoma were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (2000-2020). Tumors from the rectum to descending colon were categorized as visible by sigmoidoscopy, whereas more proximal tumors as requiring colonoscopy. Differential prognosis between tumor locations, stratified by age groups and stage, were assessed using overall restricted mean survival time (RMST) at 2, 5, and 10 years.

Results

Among 309,466 patients, 58% had tumors visible by sigmoidoscopy, including 73% of those under age 50 (OR 2.10, 95%CI 2.03-2.16 age <45, OR 2.20, 95%CI 2.13-2.27 age 45-49 versus age > 50). Male sex (OR 1.54, 95%CI 1.51-1.56) and Asian or Pacific Islander race (OR 1.60, 95%CI 1.56-1.64) were also positively associated with tumors visualizable by sigmoidoscopy. Across age groups, for local disease, RMST was comparable for tumors visible versus not visible on sigmoidoscopy. For regional and metastatic cancer, patients with tumors visible by sigmoidoscopy had improved RMST versus those with more proximal tumors.

Conclusions

Most CRC arise in locations visible by flexible sigmoidoscopy. Flexible sigmoidoscopy should be considered as a viable option for CRC screening, particularly in younger patients unwilling or unable to undergo colonoscopy.

Impact of Hypothermic Oxygenated Machine Perfusion on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence after Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Machine perfusion may be able to mitigate ischemia-reperfusion injury (IRI), which increases hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT). This study aimed to investigate the impact of dual-hypothermic oxygenated machine perfusion (D-HOPE) on HCC recurrence in LT.

METHODS

A single-center retrospective study was conducted from 2016 to 2020. Pre- and postoperative data of HCC patients undergoing LT were analyzed. Recipients of a D-HOPE-treated graft were compared to those of livers preserved using static cold storage (SCS). The primary endpoint was recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

Of 326 patients, 246 received an SCS-preserved liver and 80 received a D-HOPE-treated graft (donation after brain death (DBD), n = 66; donation after circulatory death (DCD), n = 14). Donors of D-HOPE-treated grafts were older and had higher BMI. All DCD donors were treated by normothermic regional perfusion and D-HOPE. The groups were comparable in terms of HCC features and estimated 5-year RFS according to the Metroticket 2.0 model. D-HOPE did not reduce HCC recurrence (D-HOPE 10%; SCS 8.9%; p = 0.95), which was confirmed using Bayesian model averaging and inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted RFS analysis. Postoperative outcomes were comparable between groups, except for lower AST and ALT peak in the D-HOPE group.

CONCLUSIONS

In this single-center study, D-HOPE did not reduce HCC recurrence but allowed utilizing livers from extended criteria donors with comparable outcomes, improving access to LT for patients suffering from HCC.

Machine learning determination of motivators of terminal extubation during the transition to end-of-life care in intensive care unit

Procedural aspects of compassionate care such as the terminal extubation are understudied. We used machine learning methods to determine factors associated with the decision to extubate the critically ill patient at the end of life, and whether the terminal extubation shortens the dying process. We performed a secondary data analysis of a large, prospective, multicentre, cohort study, death prediction and physiology after removal of therapy (DePPaRT), which collected baseline data as well as ECG, pulse oximeter and arterial waveforms from WLST until 30 min after death. We analysed a priori defined factors associated with the decision to perform terminal extubation in WLST using the random forest method and logistic regression. Cox regression was used to analyse the effect of terminal extubation on time from WLST to death. A total of 616 patients were included into the analysis, out of which 396 (64.3%) were terminally extubated. The study centre, low or no vasopressor support, and good respiratory function were factors significantly associated with the decision to extubate. Unadjusted time to death did not differ between patients with and without extubation (median survival time extubated vs. not extubated: 60 [95% CI: 46; 76] vs. 58 [95% CI: 45; 75] min). In contrast, after adjustment for confounders, time to death of extubated patients was significantly shorter (49 [95% CI: 40; 62] vs. 85 [95% CI: 61; 115] min). The decision to terminally extubate is associated with specific centres and less respiratory and/or vasopressor support. In this context, terminal extubation was associated with a shorter time to death.