Bromus Response to Climate and Projected Changes with Climate Change

Ecosystem resilience to invasion and drought: Insights after 24 years in a rare never-grazed grassland

Understanding the resilience of ecosystems globally is hampered by the complex and interacting drivers of change characteristic of the Anthropocene. This is true for drylands of the western US, where widespread alteration of disturbance regimes and spread of invasive non-native species occurred with westward expansion during the 1800s, including the introduction of domestic livestock and spread of Bromus tectorum, an invasive non-native annual grass. In addition, this region has experienced a multi-decadal drought not seen for at least 1200 years with potentially large and interacting impacts on native plant communities. Here, we present 24 years of twice-annual plant cover monitoring (1997-2021) from a semiarid grassland never grazed by domestic livestock but subject to a patchy invasion of B. tectorum beginning in ~1994, compare our findings to surveys done in 1967, and examine potential climate drivers of plant community changes. We found a significant warming trend in the study area, with more than 75% of study year temperatures being warmer than average (1966-2021). We observed a native perennial grass community with high resilience to climate forcings with cover values like those in 1967. In invaded patches, B. tectorum cover was greatest in the early years of this study (1997-2001; ~20%-40%) but was subsequently constrained by climate and subtle variation in soils, with limited evidence of long-term impacts to native vegetation, contradicting earlier studies. Our ability to predict year-to-year variation in functional group and species cover with climate metrics varied, with a 12-month integrated index and fall and winter patterns appearing most important. However, declines to near zero live cover in recent years in response to regional drought intensification leave questions regarding the resiliency of intact grasslands to ongoing aridification and whether the vegetation observations reported here may be a leading indicator of impending change in this protected ecosystem.

Two common, often coexisting grassland plant species differ in their evolutionary potential in response to experimental drought

For terrestrial plant communities, the increase in frequency and intensity of drought events is considered as one of the most severe consequences of climate change. While single-species studies demonstrate that drought can lead to relatively rapid adaptive genetic changes, the evolutionary potential and constraints to selection need to be assessed in comparative approaches to draw more general conclusions. In a greenhouse experiment, we compare the phenotypic response and evolutionary potential of two co-occurring grassland plant species, Bromus erectus and Trifolium pratense, in two environments differing in water availability. We quantified variation in functional traits and reproductive fitness in response to drought and compared multivariate genetic variance-covariance matrices and predicted evolutionary responses between species. Species showed different drought adaptation strategies, reflected in both their species-specific phenotypic plasticity and predicted responses to selection indicating contrasting evolutionary potential under drought. In T. pratense we found evidence for stronger genetic constraints under drought compared to more favourable conditions, and for some traits plastic and predicted evolutionary responses to drought had opposing directions, likely limiting the potential for adaptive change. Our study contributes to a more detailed understanding of the evolutionary potential of species with different adaptive strategies in response to climate change and may help to inform future scenarios for semi-natural grassland ecosystems.

Climate Impacts on Fire Risk in Desert Shrublands: A Modeling Study

Fire is recognized to be an important disturbance in many ecosystems worldwide, although desert ecosystems are not generally thought of as being prone to fire, primarily because of the lack of a continuous fuel bed. However, the likelihood of catastrophic fires in some desert systems is increasing due to the spread of exotic species, which can grow in the open. A second factor increasing fire risk may be extreme rainfall events caused by climate warming that can lead to an increase in fuel loads. Our work explores the impact of increased rainfall on fire risk in creosote shrublands that have been invaded by exotic grasses. We take experimental results from creosote (Larrea tridentata) shrublands in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts of the Southwestern United States and develop spatially explicit simulation models to explore the impact of shifting rainfall regimes on biomass production and fire spread. In doing this, we explore two scales that are important in the spread of fire: (1) the macro-scale which considers the likelihood that fire arriving at one edge of a modeled landscape will successfully reach the opposite edge, leading to spread at a broader scale; and (2) the micro-scale, which considers fire spread within the landscape. We use a very simple model to first explore how changes in the distribution of fuel in the landscape impact the ability of fire to spread across and within the landscape. We then add more realism by including a direct consideration of creosote shrub distributions and biomass levels produced in different vegetation zones associated with distance from creosote. Our models show that the spread of fire at both macro- and micro-scales can be predicted from a knowledge of the statistical distribution of biomass in the field. The only additional information that is needed to predict the extent of fire spread is the amount of biomass at a local site (g m–2) required to ignite standing biomass in adjacent sites. This will depend upon species composition as well as amount of biomass, the hydration status of the vegetation and climatic conditions, such as windspeed and relative humidity.

Modeling the Distribution of the Invasive Alien Cycad Aulacaspis Scale in Africa Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios

The cycad aulacaspis scale, Aulacaspis yasumatsui Takagi (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Diaspididae), is native to Southeast Asia but an invasive pest of the gymnosperm order Cycadales in many parts of the world. Aulacaspis yasumatsui was recently reported on the cycad genus Encephalartos in South Africa and is currently categorized as a 'prohibited terrestrial invertebrate' in the invasive species legislation, National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act, 2004 (NEM:BA). Encephalartos is endemic to Africa, and 11 species are listed as critically endangered and four species as endangered. Seeing the limited distribution of A. yasumatsui in South Africa and only one unconfirmed record from the Ivory Coast, understanding the potential distribution range is essential for control and management. Here we model the potential distribution of A. yasumatsui under current and future climate scenarios in Africa, with a focus on South Africa. Future climatic scenarios were simulated using a bio-climatic software, CLIMEX. The model indicates that, under the current climatic scenario, all 17 African countries possessing Encephalartos are susceptible to A. yasumatsui establishment. However, under climatic change, the suitability decreases for large parts of Africa. In South Africa, 93% of the winter rainfall areas, and 90% of the temperate, summer rainfall areas are suitable for A. yasumatsui establishment. In this study, we highlight the urgent need for regulation, management, and research on A. yasumatsui in African countries with native cycads.

Experimental Warming Changes Phenology and Shortens Growing Season of the Dominant Invasive Plant Bromus tectorum (Cheatgrass)

Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) has successfully invaded and established throughout the western United States. Bromus tectorum grows early in the season and this early growth allows B. tectorum to outcompete native species, which has led to dramatic shifts in ecosystem function and plant community composition after B. tectorum invades. If the phenology of native species is unable to track changing climate as effectively as B. tectorum's phenology then climate change may facilitate further invasion. To better understand how B. tectorum phenology will respond to future climate, we tracked the timing of B. tectorum germination, flowering, and senescence over a decade in three in situ climate manipulation experiments with treatments that increased temperatures (2°C and 4°C above ambient), altered precipitation regimes, or applied a combination of each. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze treatment effects on the timing of germination, flowering, senescence, and on the length of the vegetative growing season (time from germination to flowering) in each experiment. Altered precipitation treatments were only applied in early years of the study and neither precipitation treatments nor the treatments' legacies significantly affected B. tectorum phenology. The timing of germination did not significantly vary between any warming treatments and their respective ambient plots. However, plots that were warmed had advances in the timing of B. tectorum flowering and senescence, as well as shorter vegetative growing seasons. The phenological advances caused by warming increased with increasing degrees of experimental warming. The greatest differences between warmed and ambient plots were seen in the length of the vegetative growing season, which was shortened by approximately 12 and 7 days in the +4°C and +2°C warming levels, respectively. The effects of experimental warming were small compared to the effects of interannual climate variation, suggesting that interactive controls and the timing of multiple climatic factors are important in determining B. tectorum phenology. Taken together, these results help elucidate how B. tectorum phenology may respond to future climate, increasing our predictive capacity for estimating when to time B. tectorum control efforts and how to more effectively manage this exotic annual grass.

Relevance of Plant Growth Promoting Microorganisms and Their Derived Compounds, in the Face of Climate Change

Climate change has already affected food security in many parts of the world, and this situation will worsen if nothing is done to combat it. Unfortunately, agriculture is a meaningful driver of climate change, through greenhouse gas emissions from nitrogen-based fertilizer, methane from animals and animal manure, as well as deforestation to obtain more land for agriculture. Therefore, the global agricultural sector should minimize greenhouse gas emissions in order to slow climate change. The objective of this review is to point out the various ways plant growth promoting microorganisms (PGPM) can be used to enhance crop production amidst climate change challenges, and effects of climate change on more conventional challenges, such as: weeds, pests, pathogens, salinity, drought, etc. Current knowledge regarding microbial inoculant technology is discussed. Pros and cons of single inoculants, microbial consortia and microbial compounds are discussed. A range of microbes and microbe derived compounds that have been reported to enhance plant growth amidst a range of biotic and abiotic stresses, and microbe-based products that are already on the market as agroinputs, are a focus. This review will provide the reader with a clearer understanding of current trends in microbial inoculants and how they can be used to enhance crop production amidst climate change challenges.

Climate-based seed transfer of a widespread shrub: population shifts, restoration strategies, and the trailing edge

Genetic resources have to be managed appropriately to mitigate the impact of climate change. For many wildland plants, conservation will require knowledge of the climatic factors affecting intraspecific genetic variation to minimize maladaptation. Knowledge of the interaction between traits and climate can focus management resources on vulnerable populations, provide guidance for seed transfer, and enhance fitness and resilience under changing climates. In this study, traits of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) were examined among common gardens located in different climates. We focus on two subspecies, wyomingensis and tridentata, that occupy the most imperiled warm-dry spectrum of the sagebrush biome. Populations collected across the sagebrush biome were recorded for flower phenology and survival. Mixed-effects models examined each trait to evaluate genetic variation, environmental effects, and adaptive breadth of populations. Climate variables derived from population-source locations were significantly associated with these traits (P < 0.0001), explaining 31% and 11% of the flower phenology and survival variation, respectively. To illustrate our model and assess variability in prediction, we examine fixed and focal point seed transfer approaches to map contemporary and climate model ensemble projections in two different regions of the sagebrush biome. A comparison of seed transfer areas predicts that populations from warmer climates become more prevalent, replacing colder-adapted populations by mid-century. However, these warm-adapted populations are often located along the trailing edge, margins of the species range predicted to be lost due to a contraction of the climatic niche. Management efforts should focus on the collection and conservation of vulnerable populations and prudent seed transfer to colder regions where these populations are projected to occur by mid-century. Our models provide the foundation to develop an empirical, climate-based seed transfer system for current and future restoration of big sagebrush.

Competition between cheatgrass and bluebunch wheatgrass is altered by temperature, resource availability, and atmospheric CO2 concentration

Global change drivers (elevated atmospheric CO2, rising surface temperatures, and changes in resource availability) have significant consequences for global plant communities. In the northern sagebrush steppe of North America, the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) is expected to benefit from projected warmer and drier conditions, as well as increased CO2 and nutrient availability. In growth chambers, we addressed this expectation using two replacement series experiments designed to test competition between B. tectorum and the native perennial bunchgrass Pseudoroegneria spicata. In the first experiment, we tested the effects of elevated temperature, decreased water and increased nutrient availability, on competition between the two species. In the second, we tested the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and decreased water availability on the competitive dynamic. In both experiments, under all conditions, P. spicata suppressed B. tectorum, though, in experiment one, warmer and drier conditions and elevated nutrient availability increased B. tectorum's competitiveness. In experiment two, when grown in monoculture, both species responded positively to elevated CO2. However, when grown in competition, elevated CO2 increased P. spicata's suppressive effect, and the combination of dry soil conditions and elevated CO2 enhanced this effect. Our findings demonstrate that B. tectorum competitiveness with P. spicata responds differently to global change drivers; thus, future conditions are unlikely to facilitate B. tectorum invasion into established P. spicata communities of the northern sagebrush steppe. However, disturbance (e.g., fire) to these communities, and the associated increase in soil nutrients, elevates the risk of B. tectorum invasion.

A warmer and drier climate in the northern sagebrush biome does not promote cheatgrass invasion or change its response to fire

Dryland shrub communities have been degraded by a range of disturbances and now face additional stress from global climate change. The spring/summer growing season of the North American sagebrush biome is projected to become warmer and drier, which is expected to facilitate the expansion of the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) and alter its response to fire in the northern extent of the biome. We tested these predictions with a factorial experiment with two levels of burning (spring burn and none) and three climate treatments (warming, warming + drying, and control) that was repeated over 3 years in a Montana sagebrush steppe. We expected the climate treatments to make B. tectorum more competitive with the native perennial grass community, especially Pseudoroegneria spicata, and alter its response to fire. Experimental warming and warming + drying reduced B. tectorum cover, biomass, and fecundity, but there was no response to fire except for fecundity, which increased; the native grass community was the most significant factor that affected B. tectorum metrics. The experimental climate treatments also negatively affected P. spicata, total native grass cover, and community biodiversity, while fire negatively affected total native grass cover, particularly when climate conditions were warmer and drier. Our short-term results indicate that without sufficient antecedent moisture and a significant disruption to the native perennial grass community, a change in climate to a warmer and drier spring/summer growing season in the northern sagebrush biome will not facilitate B. tectorum invasion or alter its response to fire.

Refining the cheatgrass-fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years' growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1-3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.