Update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX: a systematic review of potential cohorts and analysis plan

Update on fracture risk assessment in osteoporosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The assessment of fracture risk is playing an ever-increasing role in osteoporosis clinical management and informing international guidelines for osteoporosis. FRAX, a fracture risk calculator that provides individualized 10-year probabilities of hip and major osteoporotic fracture, has been widely used since 2008. In this review, we recap the development and limitations of intervention thresholds and the role of absolute fracture risk.

RECENT FINDINGS

There is an increasing awareness of disparities and inequities in the setting of intervention thresholds in osteoporosis. The limitations of the simple use of prior fracture or the DXA-derived BMD T -score threshold are increasingly being discussed; one solution is to use fracture risk or probabilities in the setting of such thresholds. This approach also permits more objective assessment of high and very high fracture risk to enable physicians to make choices not just about the need to treat but what agents to use in individual patients.

SUMMARY

Like all clinical tools, FRAX has limitations that need to be considered, but the use of fracture risk in deciding who to treat, when to treat and what agent to use is a mechanism to target treatment equitably to those at an increased risk of fracture.

Hip Axis Length and Femoral Neck-Shaft Angle as Risk Factors for Proximal Femur Fractures in Octogenarians to Centenarians

(1) Background: The prevention of proximal femoral fractures among people of very advanced age is relevant as they are common and increasing in number. The aim of this study was to determine if the hip axis length (HAL) and the neck-shaft angle (caput-collum-diaphyseal CCD) are risk factors for those fractures among people aged 80 years and over. Consequently, it was additionally analysed if these parameters are associated with a certain fracture type. (2) Methods: Anteroposterior radiographs of the pelvis were collected to form three groups (femoral neck fractures (FNFx), trochanteric fractures (TFx) and non-fractured femora (NFx)). Two independent blinded observers separately conducted each measurement of the HAL and CCD. Statistical analysis was performed to determine the association between the measured parameters and type of fracture. (3) Results: One hundred and fifty patients (50 per group) were examined, of which the mean age was 92.7 ± 3.5 (range 81-104) years. Both the HAL and CCD of the FNFx group were significantly larger than in the TFx group (p = 0.013, 0.003). The CCD was higher in the FNFx than that of the NFx group (p = 0.001). No further significant differences of HAL and CCD were observed between the groups. (4) Conclusions: For people aged 80 years and over, an increased HAL represented no risk factor for proximal femur fractures, and a large HAL was associated with an increased occurrence of FNFx instead of TFx. A large CCD was associated with an increased risk of suffering a femoral neck fracture, showing evidence of the CCD being a risk factor for the extremely old population.

Prediction of Osteoporotic Hip Fracture Outcome: Comparative Accuracy of 27 Immune-Inflammatory-Metabolic Markers and Related Conceptual Issues

Objectives: This study, based on the concept of immuno-inflammatory-metabolic (IIM) dysregulation, investigated and compared the prognostic impact of 27 indices at admission for prediction of postoperative myocardial injury (PMI) and/or hospital death in hip fracture (HF) patients. Methods: In consecutive HF patient (n = 1273, mean age 82.9 ± 8.7 years, 73.5% females) demographics, medical history, laboratory parameters, and outcomes were recorded prospectively. Multiple logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic analyses (the area under the curve, AUC) were used to establish the predictive role for each biomarker. Results: Among 27 IIM biomarkers, 10 indices were significantly associated with development of PMI and 16 were indicative of a fatal outcome; in the subset of patients aged >80 years with ischaemic heart disease (IHD, the highest risk group: 90.2% of all deaths), the corresponding figures were 26 and 20. In the latter group, the five strongest preoperative predictors for PMI were anaemia (AUC 0.7879), monocyte/eosinophil ratio > 13.0 (AUC 0.7814), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio > 7.5 (AUC 0.7784), eosinophil count < 1.1 × 109/L (AUC 0.7780), and neutrophil/albumin × 10 > 2.4 (AUC 0.7732); additionally, sensitivity was 83.1-75.4% and specificity was 82.1-75.0%. The highest predictors of in-hospital death were platelet/lymphocyte ratio > 280.0 (AUC 0.8390), lymphocyte/monocyte ratio < 1.1 (AUC 0.8375), albumin < 33 g/L (AUC 0.7889), red cell distribution width > 14.5% (AUC 0.7739), and anaemia (AUC 0.7604), sensitivity 88.2% and above, and specificity 85.1-79.3%. Internal validation confirmed the predictive value of the models. Conclusions: Comparison of 27 IIM indices in HF patients identified several simple, widely available, and inexpensive parameters highly predictive for PMI and/or in-hospital death. The applicability of IIM biomarkers to diagnose and predict risks for chronic diseases, including OP/OF, in the preclinical stages is discussed.

Risk and predictors of fractures in early rheumatoid arthritis - A long term follow up study of an inception cohort

OBJECTIVES

To examine the risk of fractures in a cohort of patients with newly diagnosed rheumatoid arthritis (RA), compared to the background population, and predictors of fractures detectable early in RA.

METHODS

An inception cohort of patients with RA (N = 233; 164 women/69 men, recruited 1995-2005) was evaluated according to a structured program, including repeated clinical assessments and measures of bone mineral density (BMD), from diagnosis to 10 years later. Matched population controls were identified using the national census register. Fractures through 2019 were identified based on ICD codes. Cox regression models were used to assess the risk of fractures in RA patients compared with controls, and for assessment of potential predictors for fractures in the RA population.

RESULTS

RA patients had an increased risk of fractures (fully adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.52, 95 % CI 1.13; 2.06). In the RA cohort, high age, low body mass index, and low BMD were significant baseline predictors of future fractures in multivariate analyses, but baseline RA disease characteristics were not. Worse disability (i.e. higher Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) scores) over time was significantly associated with increased risk of fractures (age-sex-adjusted HR 1.33 per SD, 95 % CI 1.09; 1.63) and there was an inverse association between BMD Z-scores over time and fractures.

CONCLUSION

Patients with RA had higher risk of fractures than controls. Fracture risk was related to BMD at baseline and over time in patients with RA. In addition, worse disability (measured by HAQ) over time was associated with higher risk of fractures.

The role of different physical function tests for the prediction of fracture risk in older women

BACKGROUND

Physical function is an important risk factor for fracture. Previous studies found that different physical tests (e.g., one-leg standing [OLS] and timed up and go [TUG]) predict fracture risk. This study aimed to determine which physical function test is the most optimal independent predictor of fracture risk, together with clinical risk factors (CRFs) used in fracture risk assessment (FRAX) and bone mineral density (BMD).

METHODS

In total, 2321 women out of the included 3028 older women, aged 77.7 ± 1.6 (mean ± SD), in the Sahlgrenska University Hospital Prospective Evaluation of Risk of Bone Fractures study had complete data on all physical function tests and were included in the analysis. At baseline, hand grip strength, OLS, TUG, walking speed and chair stand tests were performed. All incident fractures were confirmed by X-ray or review of medical records and subsequently categorized as major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs), hip fractures and any fracture. Multivariate Cox regression (hazard ratios [HRs] and 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) analyses were performed with adjustments for age, body mass index (BMI), FRAX CRFs, femoral neck BMD and all physical function tests as predictors both individually and simultaneously. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses and Fine and Gray analyses were also performed to investigate associations between physical function and incident fractures.

RESULTS

OLS was the only physical function test to be significantly and independently associated with increased risk of any fracture (HR 1.13 [1.04-1.23]), MOF (HR 1.15 [1.04-1.26]) and hip fracture (HR 1.34 [1.11-1.62]). Adjusting for age, BMI, CRFs and femoral neck BMD did not materially alter these associations. ROC analysis for OLS, together with age, BMI, femoral neck BMD and CRFs, yielded area under the curve values of 0.642, 0.647 and 0.732 for any fracture, MOF and hip fracture, respectively. In analyses considering the competing risk of death, OLS was the only physical function test consistently associated with fracture outcomes (subhazard ratio [SHR] 1.10 [1.01-1.19] for any fracture, SHR 1.11 [1.00-1.22] for MOF and SHR 1.25 [1.03-1.50] for hip fracture). Walking speed was only independently associated with the risk of hip fracture in all Cox regression models and in the Fine and Gray analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the five physical function tests, OLS was independently associated with all fracture outcomes, even after considering the competing risk of death, indicating that OLS is the most reliable physical function test for predicting fracture risk in older women.

Scientific opinion on the tolerable upper intake level for preformed vitamin A and β-carotene

Following two requests from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Nutrition, Novel Foods and Food Allergens (NDA) was asked to deliver a scientific opinion on the revision of the tolerable upper intake level (UL) for preformed vitamin A and β-carotene. Systematic reviews of the literature were conducted for priority adverse health effects of excess vitamin A intake, namely teratogenicity, hepatotoxicity and endpoints related to bone health. Available data did not allow to address whether β-carotene could potentiate preformed vitamin A toxicity. Teratogenicity was selected as the critical effect on which to base the UL for preformed vitamin A. The Panel proposes to retain the UL for preformed vitamin A of 3000 μg RE/day for adults. This UL applies to men and women, including women of child-bearing age, pregnant and lactating women and post-menopausal women. This value was scaled down to other population groups using allometric scaling (body weight0.75), leading to ULs between 600 μg RE/day (infants 4-11 months) and 2600 μg RE/day (adolescents 15-17 years). Based on available intake data, European populations are unlikely to exceed the UL for preformed vitamin A if consumption of liver, offal and products thereof is limited to once per month or less. Women who are planning to become pregnant or who are pregnant are advised not to consume liver products. Lung cancer risk was selected as the critical effect of excess supplemental β-carotene. The available data were not sufficient and suitable to characterise a dose-response relationship and identify a reference point; therefore, no UL could be established. There is no indication that β-carotene intake from the background diet is associated with adverse health effects. Smokers should avoid consuming food supplements containing β-carotene. The use of supplemental β-carotene by the general population should be limited to the purpose of meeting vitamin A requirements.

A perspective on muscle phenotyping in musculoskeletal research

Musculoskeletal research should synergistically investigate bone and muscle to inform approaches for maintaining mobility and to avoid bone fractures. The relationship between sarcopenia and osteoporosis, integrated in the term 'osteosarcopenia', is underscored by the close association shown between these two conditions in many studies, whereby one entity emerges as a predictor of the other. In a recent workshop of Working Group (WG) 2 of the EU Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action 'Genomics of MusculoSkeletal traits Translational Network' (GEMSTONE) consortium (CA18139), muscle characterization was highlighted as being important, but currently under-recognized in the musculoskeletal field. Here, we summarize the opinions of the Consortium and research questions around translational and clinical musculoskeletal research, discussing muscle phenotyping in human experimental research and in two animal models: zebrafish and mouse.

A plasma protein-based risk score to predict hip fractures

As there are effective treatments to reduce hip fractures, identification of patients at high risk of hip fracture is important to inform efficient intervention strategies. To obtain a new tool for hip fracture prediction, we developed a protein-based risk score in the Cardiovascular Health Study using an aptamer-based proteomic platform. The proteomic risk score predicted incident hip fractures and improved hip fracture discrimination in two Trøndelag Health Study validation cohorts using the same aptamer-based platform. When transferred to an antibody-based proteomic platform in a UK Biobank validation cohort, the proteomic risk score was strongly associated with hip fractures (hazard ratio per s.d. increase, 1.64; 95% confidence interval 1.53-1.77). The proteomic risk score, but not available polygenic risk scores for fractures or bone mineral density, improved the C-index beyond the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX), which integrates information from clinical risk factors (C-index, FRAX 0.735 versus FRAX + proteomic risk score 0.776). The developed proteomic risk score constitutes a new tool for stratifying patients according to hip fracture risk; however, its improvement in hip fracture discrimination is modest and its clinical utility beyond FRAX with information on femoral neck bone mineral density remains to be determined.

Enhanced osteoporotic fracture prediction in postmenopausal women using Bayesian optimization of machine learning models with genetic risk score

This study aimed to enhance the fracture risk prediction accuracy in major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) and hip fractures (HFs) by integrating genetic profiles, machine learning (ML) techniques, and Bayesian optimization. The genetic risk score (GRS), derived from 1,103 risk single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), was formulated for 25,772 postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative dataset. We developed four ML models: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, XGBoost, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for binary fracture outcome and 10-year fracture risk prediction. GRS and FRAX clinical risk factors (CRFs) were used as predictors. Death as a competing risk was accounted for in ML models for time-to-fracture data. ML models were subsequently fine-tuned through Bayesian optimization, which displayed marked superiority over traditional grid search. Evaluation of the models' performance considered an array of metrics such as accuracy, weighted F1 Score, the area under the precision-recall curve (PRAUC), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for binary fracture predictions, and the C-index, Brier score, and dynamic mean AUC over a 10-year follow-up period for fracture risk predictions. We found that GRS-integrated XGBoost with Bayesian optimization is the most effective model, with an accuracy of 91.2% (95% CI: 90.4-92.0%) and an AUC of 0.739 (95% CI: 0.731-0.746) in MOF binary predictions. For 10-year fracture risk modeling, the XGBoost model attained a C-index of 0.795 (95% CI: 0.783-0.806) and a mean dynamic AUC of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.788-0.809). Compared to FRAX, the XGBoost model exhibited a categorical net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 22.6% (P = .004). A sensitivity analysis, which included BMD but lacked GRS, reaffirmed these findings. Furthermore, portability tests in diverse non-European groups, including Asians and African Americans, underscored the model's robustness and adaptability. This study accentuates the potential of combining genetic insights and optimized ML in strengthening fracture predictions, heralding new preventive strategies for postmenopausal women.

Ten-year follow-up of fracture risk in a systematic population-based screening program: the risk-stratified osteoporosis strategy evaluation (ROSE) randomised trial

Background

Osteoporotic fractures pose a growing public health concern. Osteoporosis is underdiagnosed and undertreated, highlighting the necessity of systematic screening programs. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a two-step population-based osteoporotic screening program.

Methods

This ten-year follow-up of the Risk-stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation (ROSE) randomized trial tested the effectiveness of a screening program utilizing the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) for major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) to select women for dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan following standard osteoporosis treatment. Women residing in the Region of Southern Denmark, aged 65-80, were randomised (single masked) into a screening or a control group by a computer program prior to inclusion and subsequently approached with a mailed questionnaire. Based on the questionnaire data, women in the screening group with a FRAX value ≥15% were invited for DXA scanning. The primary outcome was MOF derived from nationwide registers. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01388244, status: Completed.

Findings

All randomised women were included February 4, 2010-January 8, 2011, the same day as approached to participate. During follow-up, 7355 MOFs were observed. No differences in incidences of MOF were identified, comparing the 17,072 women in the screening group with the 17,157 controls in the intention-to-treat analysis (IRR 1.01, 0.95; 1.06). However, per-protocol, women DXA-scanned exhibited a 14% lower incidence of MOF (IRR 0.86, 0.78; 0.94) than controls with a FRAX value ≥15%. Similar trends were observed for hip fractures, all fractures, and mortality.

Interpretation

While the ROSE program had no overall effect on osteoporotic fracture incidence or mortality it showed a preventive effect for women at moderate to high risk who underwent DXA scans. Hence the overall effect might have been diluted by those who were not at an intervention level threshold risk or those who did not show up for DXA. Using self-administered questionnaires as screening tools may be inefficient for systematic screening due to the low and differential screening uptake.

Funding

INTERREG and the Region of Southern Denmark.

Decomposing and simplifying the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool-a module from the Taiwan-specific calculator

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®) is a widely utilized country-specific calculator for identifying individuals with high fracture risk; its score is calculated from 12 variables, but its formulation is not publicly disclosed. We aimed to decompose and simplify the FRAX® by utilizing a nationwide community survey database as a reference module for creating a local assessment tool for osteoporotic fracture community screening in any country. Participants (n = 16384; predominantly women (75%); mean age = 64.8 years) were enrolled from the Taiwan OsteoPorosis Survey, a nationwide cross-sectional community survey collected from 2008 to 2011. We identified 11 clinical risk factors from the health questionnaires. BMD was assessed via dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in a mobile DXA vehicle, and 10-year fracture risk scores, including major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture (HF) risk scores, were calculated using the FRAX®. The mean femoral neck BMD was 0.7 ± 0.1 g/cm2, the T-score was -1.9 ± 1.2, the MOF was 8.9 ± 7.1%, and the HF was 3.2 ± 4.7%. Following FRAX® decomposition with multiple linear regression, the adjusted R2 values were 0.9206 for MOF and 0.9376 for HF when BMD was included and 0.9538 for MOF and 0.9554 for HF when BMD was excluded. The FRAX® demonstrated better prediction for women and younger individuals than for men and elderly individuals after sex and age stratification analysis. Excluding femoral neck BMD, age, sex, and previous fractures emerged as 3 primary clinical risk factors for simplified FRAX® according to the decision tree analysis in this study population. The adjusted R2 values for the simplified country-specific FRAX® incorporating 3 premier clinical risk factors were 0.8210 for MOF and 0.8528 for HF. After decomposition, the newly simplified module provides a straightforward formulation for estimating 10-year fracture risk, even without femoral neck BMD, making it suitable for community or clinical osteoporotic fracture risk screening.

The Effectiveness of a Lactobacilli-Based Probiotic Food Supplement on Bone Mineral Density and Bone Metabolism in Australian Early Postmenopausal Women: Protocol for a Double-Blind Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial

Osteoporosis affects one in three women over the age of 50 and results in fragility fractures. Oestrogen deficiency during and after menopause exacerbates bone loss, accounting for higher prevalence of fragility fractures in women. The gut microbiota (GM) has been proposed as a key regulator of bone health, as it performs vital functions such as immune regulation and biosynthesis of vitamins. Therefore, GM modulation via probiotic supplementation has been proposed as a target for potential therapeutic intervention to reduce bone loss. While promising results have been observed in mouse model studies, translation into human trials is limited. Here, we present the study protocol for a double-blind randomized controlled trial that aims to examine the effectiveness of three lactobacilli strains on volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD), trabecular, and cortical microstructure, as measured using High Resolution peripheral Quantitative Computed Tomography (HR-pQCT). The trial will randomize 124 healthy early postmenopausal women (up to 8 years from menopause) to receive either probiotic or placebo administered once daily for 12 months. Secondary outcomes will investigate the probiotics' effects on areal BMD and specific mechanistic biomarkers, including bone metabolism and inflammatory markers. The trial is registered with Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12621000810819).

Diagnosing Osteoporosis in Diabetes-A Systematic Review on BMD and Fractures

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Recently, the American Diabetes Association updated the 2024 guidelines for Standards of Care in Diabetes and recommend that a T-score of - 2.0 in patients with diabetes should be interpreted as equivalent to - 2.5 in people without diabetes. We aimed to evaluate the most recent findings concerning the bone mineral density (BMD)-derived T-score and risk of fractures related to osteoporosis in subjects with diabetes.

RECENT FINDINGS

The dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan is the golden standard for evaluating BMD. The BMD-derived T-score is central to fracture prediction and signifies both diagnosis and treatment for osteoporosis. However, the increased fracture risk in diabetes is not sufficiently explained by the T-score, complicating the identification and management of fracture risk in these patients. Recent findings agree that subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2D) have a higher T-score and higher fracture risk compared with subjects without diabetes. However, the actual number of studies evaluating the direct association of higher fracture risk at higher T-score levels is scant. Some studies support the adjustment based on the 0.5 BMD T-score difference between subjects with T2D and subjects without diabetes. However, further data from longitudinal studies is warranted to validate if the T-score treatment threshold necessitates modification to prevent fractures in subjects with diabetes.

An overview of the use of the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in osteoporosis

FRAX®, a simple-to-use fracture risk calculator, was first released in 2008 and since then has been used increasingly worldwide. By calculating the 10-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture, it assists clinicians when deciding whether further investigation, for example a bone mineral density measurement (BMD), and/or treatment is needed to prevent future fractures. In this review, we explore the literature around osteoporosis and how FRAX has changed its management. We present the characteristics of this tool and describe the use of thresholds (diagnostic and therapeutic). We also present arguments as to why screening with FRAX should be considered. FRAX has several limitations which are described in this review. This review coincides with the release of a version, FRAXplus, which addresses some of these limitations.

A meta-analysis of previous falls and subsequent fracture risk in cohort studies

The relationship between self-reported falls and fracture risk was estimated in an international meta-analysis of individual-level data from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were associated with an increased fracture risk in women and men and should be considered as an additional risk factor in the FRAX® algorithm.

INTRODUCTION

Previous falls are a well-documented risk factor for subsequent fracture but have not yet been incorporated into the FRAX algorithm. The aim of this study was to evaluate, in an international meta-analysis, the association between previous falls and subsequent fracture risk and its relation to sex, age, duration of follow-up, and bone mineral density (BMD).

METHODS

The resource comprised 906,359 women and men (66.9% female) from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were uniformly defined as any fall occurring during the previous year in 43 cohorts; the remaining three cohorts had a different question construct. The association between previous falls and fracture risk (any clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture) was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and each sex, followed by random-effects meta-analyses of the weighted beta coefficients.

RESULTS

Falls in the past year were reported in 21.4% of individuals. During a follow-up of 9,102,207 person-years, 87,352 fractures occurred of which 19,509 were hip fractures. A previous fall was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture both in women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.51) and men (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.67). The HRs were of similar magnitude for osteoporotic, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture. Sex significantly modified the association between previous fall and fracture risk, with predictive values being higher in men than in women (e.g., for major osteoporotic fracture, HR 1.53 (95% CI 1.27-1.84) in men vs. HR 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.45) in women, P for interaction = 0.013). The HRs associated with previous falls decreased with age in women and with duration of follow-up in men and women for most fracture outcomes. There was no evidence of an interaction between falls and BMD for fracture risk. Subsequent risk for a major osteoporotic fracture increased with each additional previous fall in women and men.

CONCLUSIONS

A previous self-reported fall confers an increased risk of fracture that is largely independent of BMD. Previous falls should be considered as an additional risk factor in future iterations of FRAX to improve fracture risk prediction.

Blood cadmium is associated with increased fracture risk in never-smokers - results from a case-control study using data from the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort

BACKGROUND

Several studies have shown associations between cadmium (Cd) exposure and an increased risk of fractures. However, the size of the risk is still unclear and proper adjustment for smoking is a challenge. The aim of this study was to quantify the association between dietary cadmium measured in blood and fracture risk in the general Swedish population through a large population-based case-control study in never-smokers.

METHODS

The study included 2113 incident cases with osteoporosis-related fractures and the same number of age- and sex-matched controls in never-smokers from the Swedish population-based Malmö Diet and Cancer study cohort. Cd in blood (B-Cd) was analyzed at baseline (1991-1996). Incident osteoporosis-related fractures (of the hip, distal radius, and proximal humerus) up to the year 2014 were identified using the National Patient Register. Associations between B-Cd and fractures were analyzed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Median B-Cd was 0.22 μg/L (P25 = 0.16, P75 = 0.31) among 2103 cases and 0.21 (P25 = 0.15, P75 = 0.30) among 2105 controls. The risk of fracture was significantly increased (OR 1.58; 95 % confidence interval 1.08-2.31, per μg/L of B-Cd), after adjustment for age, sex, BMI, physical activity, and fiber consumption. In analyses by cadmium quartiles, the OR increased monotonically and was significant in the highest quartile of B-Cd (for B-Cd > 0.31 versus B-Cd < 0.15 μg/L; OR 1.21; 95 % confidence interval 1.01-1.45).

CONCLUSION

Even modestly increased blood cadmium in never-smokers is associated with increased risk of incident osteoporosis-related fractures.

Fracture risk prediction in old Chinese people-a narrative review

With aging, the burden of osteoporotic fracture (OF) increases substantially, while China is expected to carry the greatest part in the future. The risk of fracture varies greatly across racial groups and geographic regions, and systematically organized evidence on the potential predictors for fracture risk is needed for Chinese. This review briefly introduces the epidemiology of OF and expands on the predictors and predictive tools for the risk of OF, as well as the challenges for their potential translation in the old Chinese population. There are regional differences of fracture incidence among China. The fracture incidences in Hong Kong and Taiwan have decreased in recent years, while it is still increasing in mainland China. Although the application of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is limited among old Chinese in the mainland, bone mineral density (BMD) by DXA has a predictive value similar to that worldwide. Other non-DXA modalities, especially heel QUS, are helpful in assessing bone health. The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) has a good discrimination ability for OFs, especially the FRAX with BMD. And some clinical factors have added value to FRAX, which has been verified in old Chinese. In addition, although the application of the osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) in Chinese needs further validation, it may help identify high-risk populations in areas with limited resources. Moreover, the translation use of the muscle quality and genetic or serum biomarkers in fracture prediction needs further works. More applicable and targeted fracture risk predictors and tools are still needed for the old Chinese population.

Previous fracture and subsequent fracture risk: a meta-analysis to update FRAX

A large international meta-analysis using primary data from 64 cohorts has quantified the increased risk of fracture associated with a previous history of fracture for future use in FRAX.

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to quantify the fracture risk associated with a prior fracture on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex, time since baseline and bone mineral density (BMD).

METHODS

We studied 665,971 men and 1,438,535 women from 64 cohorts in 32 countries followed for a total of 19.5 million person-years. The effect of a prior history of fracture on the risk of any clinical fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using an extended Poisson model in each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex, BMD, and duration of follow-up. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted β-coefficients.

RESULTS

A previous fracture history, compared with individuals without a prior fracture, was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio, HR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.72-2.07). The risk ratio was similar for the outcome of osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.69-2.07), major osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.63-2.06), or for hip fracture (HR = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.62-2.06). There was no significant difference in risk ratio between men and women. Subsequent fracture risk was marginally downward adjusted when account was taken of BMD. Low BMD explained a minority of the risk for any clinical fracture (14%), osteoporotic fracture (17%), and for hip fracture (33%). The risk ratio for all fracture outcomes related to prior fracture decreased significantly with adjustment for age and time since baseline examination.

CONCLUSION

A previous history of fracture confers an increased risk of fracture of substantial importance beyond that explained by BMD. The effect is similar in men and women. Its quantitation on an international basis permits the more accurate use of this risk factor in case finding strategies.

Classification of Fracture Risk in Fallers Using Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry (DXA) Images and Deep Learning-Based Feature Extraction

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans are one of the most frequently used imaging techniques for calculating bone mineral density, yet calculating fracture risk using DXA image features is rarely performed. The objective of this study was to combine deep neural networks, together with DXA images and patient clinical information, to evaluate fracture risk in a cohort of adults with at least one known fall and age-matched healthy controls. DXA images of the entire body as, well as isolated images of the hip, forearm, and spine (1488 total), were obtained from 478 fallers and 48 non-faller controls. A modeling pipeline was developed for fracture risk prediction using the DXA images and clinical data. First, self-supervised pretraining of feature extractors was performed using a small vision transformer (ViT-S) and a convolutional neural network model (VGG-16 and Resnet-50). After pretraining, the feature extractors were then paired with a multilayer perceptron model, which was used for fracture risk classification. Classification was achieved with an average area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) score of 74.3%. This study demonstrates ViT-S as a promising neural network technique for fracture risk classification using DXA scans. The findings have future application as a fracture risk screening tool for older adults at risk of falls. © 2023 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

An atlas of genetic determinants of forearm fracture

Osteoporotic fracture is among the most common and costly of diseases. While reasonably heritable, its genetic determinants have remained elusive. Forearm fractures are the most common clinically recognized osteoporotic fractures with a relatively high heritability. To establish an atlas of the genetic determinants of forearm fractures, we performed genome-wide association analyses including 100,026 forearm fracture cases. We identified 43 loci, including 26 new fracture loci. Although most fracture loci associated with bone mineral density, we also identified loci that primarily regulate bone quality parameters. Functional studies of one such locus, at TAC4, revealed that Tac4-/- mice have reduced mechanical bone strength. The strongest forearm fracture signal, at WNT16, displayed remarkable bone-site-specificity with no association with hip fractures. Tall stature and low body mass index were identified as new causal risk factors for fractures. The insights from this atlas may improve fracture prediction and enable therapeutic development to prevent fractures.

Effect of immunology biomarkers associated with hip fracture and fracture risk in older adults

Osteoporosis is a skeletal disease that can increase the risk of fractures, leading to adverse health and socioeconomic consequences. However, current clinical methods have limitations in accurately estimating fracture risk, particularly in older adults. Thus, new technologies are necessary to improve the accuracy of fracture risk estimation. In this observational study, we aimed to explore the association between serum cytokines and hip fracture status in older adults, and their associations with fracture risk using the FRAX reference tool. We investigated the use of a proximity extension assay (PEA) with Olink. We compared the characteristics of the population, functional status and detailed body composition (determined using densitometry) between groups. We enrolled 40 participants, including 20 with hip fracture and 20 without fracture, and studied 46 cytokines in their serum. After conducting a score plot and two unpaired t-tests using the Benjamini-Hochberg method, we found that Interleukin 6 (IL-6), Lymphotoxin-alpha (LT-α), Fms-related tyrosine kinase 3 ligand (FLT3LG), Colony stimulating factor 1 (CSF1), and Chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 7 (CCL7) were significantly different between fracture and non-fracture patients (p < 0.05). IL-6 had a moderate correlation with FRAX (R2 = 0.409, p < 0.001), while CSF1 and CCL7 had weak correlations with FRAX. LT-α and FLT3LG exhibited a negative correlation with the risk of fracture. Our results suggest that targeted proteomic tools have the capability to identify differentially regulated proteins and may serve as potential markers for estimating fracture risk. However, longitudinal studies will be necessary to validate these results and determine the temporal patterns of changes in cytokine profiles.

Low Circulating Valine Associate With High Risk of Hip Fractures

CONTEXT

Hip fractures constitute a major health concern. An adequate supply of amino acids is crucial to ensure optimal acquisition and remodeling of bone. Circulating amino acid levels have been proposed as markers of bone mineral density, but data on their ability to predict incident fractures are scarce.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the associations between circulating amino acids and incident fractures.

METHODS

We used UK Biobank (n = 111 257; 901 hip fracture cases) as a discovery cohort and the Umeå Fracture and Osteoporosis (UFO) hip fracture study (hip fracture cases n = 2225; controls n = 2225) for replication. Associations with bone microstructure parameters were tested in a subsample of Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Sweden (n = 449).

RESULTS

Circulating valine was robustly associated with hip fractures in the UK Biobank (HR per SD increase 0.79, 95% CI 0.73-0.84), and this finding was replicated in the UFO study (combined meta-analysis including 3126 incident hip fracture cases, odds ratio per SD increase 0.84, 95% CI 0.80-0.88). Detailed bone microstructure analyses showed that high circulating valine was associated with high cortical bone area and trabecular thickness.

CONCLUSION

Low circulating valine is a robust predictor of incident hip fractures. We propose that circulating valine may add information for hip fracture prediction. Future studies are warranted to determine whether low valine is causally associated with hip fractures.

Osteoporosis and Fracture Risk among Older US Asian Adults

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review summarizes the current knowledge regarding osteoporosis and fracture among older US Asian adults.

RECENT FINDINGS

Asian adults have lower (areal) bone density than non-Hispanic White adults and thus are more likely to be diagnosed and treated for osteoporosis, despite their lower risk of hip fracture. The latter may relate to favorable characteristics in hip geometry, volumetric bone density, and bone microarchitecture; lower risk of falls; and other clinical factors. The fracture risk calculator FRAX accounts for the lower risk of hip fracture among US Asian adults. However, data on major osteoporotic fracture risk remain limited. Fracture rates also vary by Asian subgroup, which may have implications for fracture risk assessment. Furthermore, among women receiving bisphosphonate drugs, Asian race is a risk factor for atypical femur fracture, an uncommon complication associated with treatment duration. Recent clinical trial efficacy data pertaining to lower bisphosphonate doses and longer dosing intervals may be relevant for Asian adults. More research is needed to inform osteoporosis care of US Asian adults, including risk-benefit considerations and the optimal duration of bisphosphonate treatment. Greater evidence-based guidance for primary fracture prevention among US Asian adults will ensure health equity in the prevention of osteoporotic fractures.

Prevalence of Low Bone Mass and Osteoporosis in Ireland: the Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry (DXA) Health Informatics Prediction (HIP) Project

Osteoporosis is a common disease that has a significant impact on patients, healthcare systems, and society. World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria for postmenopausal women were established in 1994 to diagnose low bone mass (osteopenia) and osteoporosis using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-measured bone mineral density (BMD) to help understand the epidemiology of osteoporosis, and identify those at risk for fracture. These criteria may also apply to men ≥50 years, perimenopausal women, and people of different ethnicity. The DXA Health Informatics Prediction (HIP) project is an established convenience cohort of more than 36,000 patients who had a DXA scan to explore the epidemiology of osteoporosis and its management in the Republic of Ireland where the prevalence of osteoporosis remains unknown. In this article we compare the prevalence of a DXA classification low bone mass (T-score < -1.0) and of osteoporosis (T-score ≤ -2.5) among adults aged ≥40 years without major risk factors or fractures, with one or more major risk factors, and with one or more major osteoporotic fractures. A total of 33,344 subjects met our study inclusion criteria, including 28,933 (86.8%) women; 9362 had no fractures or major risk factors, 14,932 had one or more major clinical risk factors, and 9050 had one or more major osteoporotic fractures. The prevalence of low bone mass and osteoporosis increased significantly with age overall. The prevalence of low bone mass and osteoporosis was significantly greater among men and women with major osteoporotic fractures than healthy controls or those with clinical risk factors. Applying our results to the national population census figure of 5,123,536 in 2022 we estimate between 1,039,348 and 1,240,807 men and women aged ≥50 years have low bone mass, whereas between 308,474 and 498,104 have osteoporosis. These data are important for the diagnosis of osteoporosis in clinical practice, and national policy to reduce the illness burden of osteoporosis. © 2023 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Long-term and sequential treatment for osteoporosis

Osteoporosis is a skeletal disorder that causes impairment of bone structure and strength, leading to a progressively increased risk of fragility fractures. The global prevalence of osteoporosis is increasing in the ageing population. Owing to the chronic character of osteoporosis, years or even decades of preventive measures or therapy are required. The long-term use of bone-specific pharmacological treatment options, including antiresorptive and/or osteoanabolic approaches, has raised concerns around adverse effects or potential rebound phenomena after treatment discontinuation. Imaging options, risk scores and the assessment of bone turnover during initiation and monitoring of such therapies could help to inform individualized treatment strategies. Combination therapies are currently used less often than 'sequential' treatments. However, all patients with osteoporosis, including those with secondary and rare causes of osteoporosis, as well as specific patient populations (for example, young adults, men and pregnant women) require new approaches for long-term therapy and disease monitoring. New pathophysiological aspects of bone metabolism might therefore help to inform and revolutionize the diagnosis and treatment of osteoporosis.

Osteoporosis management in primary care

ABSTRACT

Osteoporosis is the most prevalent bone disease in the US. Once diagnosed, osteoporosis requires ongoing management; therefore, primary care providers are vital in managing both primary and secondary fracture prevention. Safe, efficacious, and economical medications are available, but osteoporosis remains underdiagnosed and undertreated. Bisphosphonates, selective estrogen receptor modulators (raloxifene), conjugated estrogens/bazedoxifene, estrogen therapy/hormone therapy, parathyroid hormone analogues, RANK ligand inhibitors (denosumab), sclerostin inhibitors (romosozumab), and calcitonin are all drugs or drug classes commonly used to treat osteoporosis that are discussed in this article.

Adjusting FRAX Estimates of Fracture Probability Based on a Positive Vertebral Fracture Assessment

Importance

FRAX is the most widely used and validated fracture risk prediction tool worldwide. Vertebral fractures, which are an indicator of subsequent osteoporotic fractures, can be identified using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) vertebral fracture assessment (VFA).

Objective

To assess the calibration of FRAX and develop a simple method for improving FRAX-predicted fracture probability in the presence of VFA-identified fracture.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prognostic study analyzed the DXA and VFA results of all individuals who underwent a VFA between March 31, 2010, and March 31, 2018, who were included in the Manitoba Bone Mineral Density Registry. These individuals were randomly assigned to either the development cohort or validation cohort. A modified algorithm-based qualitative approach was used by expert readers to code VFAs as positive (≥1 vertebral fractures detected) or negative (0 vertebral fracture detected). Statistical analysis was conducted from August 7, 2022, to May 22, 2023.

Exposures

FRAX scores for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture were calculated with or without VFA results.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incident fractures and death were ascertained using linked population-based health care provincial data. Cumulative incidence curves for MOF and hip fracture were constructed, including competing mortality, to predict the 10-year observed risk of fracture. The observed probability was compared with FRAX-predicted fracture probability with and without VFA results and recalibrated FRAX from derived multipliers.

Results

The full cohort of 11 766 individuals was randomly allocated to the development cohort (n = 7854; 7349 females [93.6%]; mean [SD] age, 75.7 [6.8] years) or the validation cohort (n = 3912; 3713 females [94.9%]; mean [SD] age, 75.5 [6.9] years). Over a mean (SD) observation time of 3.8 (2.3) years, with the longest observation at 7.5 years, FRAX was well calibrated in subgroups with negative VFA results. For individuals without a prior clinical fracture but with a positive VFA result, the 10-year FRAX-predicted MOF probability was 16.3% (95% CI, 15.7%-16.8%) without VFA information and 23.4% (95% CI, 22.7%-24.1%) with VFA information. The observed 10-year probabilities were 26.9% (95% CI, 26.0%-27.8%) and 11.2% (95% CI, 10.3%-12.1%), respectively, resulting in recalibration multipliers of 1.15 (95% CI, 0.87-1.43) for MOF and 1.31 (95% CI, 0.75-1.87) for hip fracture. For individuals with a prior clinical fracture and a positive VFA result, the 10-year FRAX-predicted probabilities were 25.0% (95% CI, 24.2%-25.7%) for MOF and 9.3% (95% CI, 8.7%-10.0%) for hip fracture. The observed 10-year probabilities were 38.1% (95% CI, 37.0%-39.1%) for MOF and 16.4% (95% CI, 15.4%-17.4%) for hip fracture, resulting in a recalibration multiplier of 1.53 (95% CI, 1.10-1.96) for MOF and 1.76 (95% CI, 1.17-2.35) for hip fracture. Good calibration (>0.90) was confirmed using the derived multipliers in the validation cohort.

Conclusions and Relevance

Results of this prognostic study suggest that FRAX underestimated fracture risk in patients with VFA-identified fractures. Simple multipliers could recover FRAX calibration in individuals with VFA-identified fractures.

Predictive capacity of FRAX in a spanish region with a hip fracture rate close to the national mean

BACKGROUND

It is known that standardized incidence rates of hip fracture vary among older people in Spain. So far, the results published on the validation of the FRAX® tool in Spain have suggested that the major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) risk in our country is underestimated. These studies have practically been based on Spanish cohorts evaluated in Catalonia, a higher hip fracture rate area. The purpose of this study is to analyse the ability of the FRAX® in a Spanish mid-fracture rate population.

METHODS

Study design: Retrospective cohort study.

MEASURES

MOFs: hip, humerus, wrist, spine fractures. Risk of fracture assessed by calculating odds ratios (ORs). Predictive capacity of FRAX® according to the osteoporotic fractures observed between 2009 and 2018 (ObsFr) to predicted by FRAX® without densitometry in 2009 (PredFr) ratio.

RESULTS

285 participants (156 women, 54.7%) with a mean ± SD of 61.5 ± 14 years. Twenty-four people sustained 27 fractures (15 MOFs). Significant ORs were observed for an age ≥ 65 (2.92; 95% CI, 1.07-7.96), female sex (3.18; 95% CI, 1.24-8.16), rheumatoid arthritis (0.62; 95% CI, 2.03-55.55), proton pump (2.71; 95% CI, 1.20-6.09) and serotonin reuptake (2.51; 95% CI, 1.02-6.16) inhibitors. The ObsFr/PredFr ratio in women were 1.12 (95% CI, 0.95-1.29) for MOFs and 0.47 (95% CI, 0-0.94) for hip fractures. Men had a ratio of 0.57 (95% CI, 0.01-1.14) for MOF, no hip fractures were observed. The ratios for the overall group were 1.29 (95% CI, 1.12-1.48) for MOFs and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.22-1.17) for hip fractures.

CONCLUSIONS

FRAX® accurately predicted MOFs in women population with a hip fracture incidence rate close to the national mean compared to previous studies conducted in higher incidence regions in Spain.

Diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in Saudi Arabia: 2023 key updates from the Saudi Osteoporosis Society

The Saudi Osteoporosis Society (SOS) has updated its guidelines for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in Saudi Arabia (SA), with emphasis on postmenopausal women. This document is relevant to all healthcare professionals in SA involved in the care of patients with osteoporosis and osteoporosis-related fractures.

INTRODUCTION

The SOS launched the first national osteoporosis guidelines in 2015 and spearheaded the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC) osteoporosis consensus report in 2020 which was under the auspices of the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis (ESCEO). This paper highlights a major update of the guidelines in the SA setting.

METHODS

This guideline is an adaptation of the current guidelines derived from ESCEO, the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists (AACE), and the GCC osteoporosis consensus report and studies on osteoporosis done in SA. Where accessible, the timeliest systematic review, meta-analysis, and randomized controlled trials were used as evidence.

RESULTS

The present update includes new recommendations for the assessment of osteoporosis taking into consideration the Saudi model of FRAX for fracture probabilities, appropriate doses for the maintenance of vitamin D status and calcium, the use of representative blood analytes for therapy monitoring, the use of romosozumab and sequential therapy in the pharmacological management strategies, and the establishment of fracture liaison services to prevent secondary fractures.

CONCLUSION

This updated guideline is for all healthcare professionals involved in osteoporosis and post-fracture care and management in SA and harmonized the most up-to-date changes in the field based on evidence-based medicine for use in the local setting.

Adjusting conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior falls in the preceding year

A greater propensity to falling is associated with higher fracture risk. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the number of prior falls.

INTRODUCTION

Prior falls increase subsequent fracture risk but are not currently directly included in the FRAX tool. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of the number of prior falls on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX®.

METHODS

We studied 21,116 women and men age 40 years or older (mean age 65.7 ± 10.1 years) with fracture probability assessment (FRAX®), self-reported falls for the previous year, and subsequent fracture outcomes in a registry-based cohort. The risks of death, hip fracture, and non-hip major osteoporotic fracture (MOF-NH) were determined by Cox proportional hazards regression for fall number category versus the whole population (i.e., an average number of falls). Ten-year probabilities of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were determined according to the number of falls from the hazards of death and fracture incorporated into the FRAX model for the UK. The probability ratios (number of falls vs. average number of falls) provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of falls.

RESULTS

Compared with the average number of falls, the hazard ratios for hip fracture, MOF-NH and death were lower than unity in the absence of a fall history. Hazard ratios increased progressively with an increasing number of reported falls. The probability ratio rose progressively as the number of reported falls increased. Probability ratios decreased with age, an effect that was more marked the greater the number of prior falls.

CONCLUSION

The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior falls.

Derivation and validation of the CFracture competing risk fracture prediction tool compared with QFracture in older people and people with comorbidity: a population cohort study

BACKGROUND

UK guidelines recommend the QFracture tool to predict the risk of major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture, but QFracture calibration is poor, partly because it does not account for competing mortality risk. The aim of this study was to derive and validate a competing risk model to predict major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture (CFracture) and compare its performance with that of QFracture in UK primary care.

METHODS

We used UK linked primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database to identify people aged 30-99 years, split into derivation and validation cohorts. In the derivation cohort, we derived models (CFracture) using the same covariates as QFracture with Fine-Gray competing risk modelling, and included the Charlson Comorbidity Index score as an additional predictor of non-fracture death. In a separate validation cohort, we examined discrimination (using Harrell's C-statistic) and calibration of CFracture compared with QFracture. Reclassification analysis examined differences in the characteristics of patients reclassified as higher risk by CFracture but not by QFracture.

FINDINGS

The derivation cohort included 1 831 606 women and 1 789 820 men, and the validation cohort included 915 803 women and 894 910 men. Overall discrimination of CFracture was excellent (C-statistic=0·813 [95% CI 0·810-0·816] for major osteoporotic fracture and 0·914 [0·908-0·919] for hip fracture in women; 0·734 [0·729-0·740] for major osteoporotic fracture and 0·886 [0·877-0·895] for hip fracture in men) and was similar to QFracture. CFracture calibration overall and in people younger than 75 years was generally excellent. CFracture overpredicted major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture in older people and people with comorbidity, but was better calibrated than QFracture. Patients classified as high-risk by CFracture but not by QFracture had a higher prevalence of current smoking and previous fracture, but lower prevalence of dementia, cancer, cardiovascular disease, renal disease, and diabetes.

INTERPRETATION

CFracture has similar discrimination to QFracture but is better calibrated overall and in younger people. Both models performed poorly in adults aged 85 years and older. Competing risk models should be recommended for fracture risk prediction to guide treatment recommendations.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health and Care Research, Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK.

Sex differences in musculoskeletal injury and disease risks across the lifespan: Are there unique subsets of females at higher risk than males for these conditions at distinct stages of the life cycle?

Sex differences have been reported for diseases of the musculoskeletal system (MSK) as well as the risk for injuries to tissues of the MSK system. For females, some of these occur prior to the onset of puberty, following the onset of puberty, and following the onset of menopause. Therefore, they can occur across the lifespan. While some conditions are related to immune dysfunction, others are associated with specific tissues of the MSK more directly. Based on this life spectrum of sex differences in both risk for injury and onset of diseases, a role for sex hormones in the initiation and progression of this risk is somewhat variable. Sex hormone receptor expression and functioning can also vary with life events such as the menstrual cycle in females, with different tissues being affected. Furthermore, some sex hormone receptors can affect gene expression independent of sex hormones and some transitional events such as puberty are accompanied by epigenetic alterations that can further lead to sex differences in MSK gene regulation. Some of the sex differences in injury risk and the post-menopausal disease risk may be "imprinted" in the genomes of females and males during development and sex hormones and their consequences only modulators of such risks later in life as the sex hormone milieu changes. The purpose of this review is to discuss some of the relevant conditions associated with sex differences in risks for loss of MSK tissue integrity across the lifespan, and further discuss several of the implications of their variable relationship with sex hormones, their receptors and life events.

Can frailty in conjunction with FRAX identify additional women at risk of fracture - a longitudinal cohort study of community dwelling older women

BACKGROUND

Fracture risk assessment is still far from perfect within the geriatric population. The overall aim of this study is to better identify older women at risk for fractures, using a quantitative measure of frailty in conjunction with the web-based Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®).

METHODS

This study was performed in the Osteoporosis Risk Assessment (OPRA) cohort of n = 1023, 75-year-old women followed for 10-years. A frailty index (FI) of 'deficits in health' was created, and FRAX 10-year probability for major osteoporotic and hip fractures was calculated and bone mineral density measured. Incident fractures were continuously registered for 10-years. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare FI, FRAX and the combination FI + FRAX as instruments for risk prediction. Discriminative ability was estimated by comparing Area Under the Curve (AUC). In addition, using guidelines from the Swedish Osteoporosis Foundation, a category of low risk women who would not have been recommended for pharmacological treatment (non-treatment group) was identified, categorized by frailty status and for relative risk analysis, hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Cox proportional hazard regressions.

RESULTS

For hip fracture, FRAX and frailty performed almost equally (HIP AUC 10y: 0.566 vs. 0.567, p = 0.015 and p = 0.013). Next, FI was used in conjunction with FRAX; proving marginally better than either score alone (AUC 10y: 0.584, p = 0.002). Comparable results were observed for osteoporotic fracture. In the non-treatment group (564 women), being frail was associated with higher 10y hip fracture risk (HR 2.01 (1.13-3.57)), although failing to reach statistical significance for osteoporotic fracture (HR 1.40 (0.97-2.01). The utility of measuring frailty was also demonstrated when using T-score as an index of bone density to define fracture risk. Among n = 678 non-osteoporotic women, frailty added to the 10-year fracture risk (Hip; HR 2.22 (1.35-3.71); Osteoporotic fracture; HR 1.57 (1.15-2.14)).

CONCLUSIONS

While the addition of frailty to FRAX marginally improved fracture prediction, applying a frailty measurement to a group of 'low risk' women, identified a set of individuals with high actual hip fracture risk that would not be prioritized for pharmacological treatment. Further cost-benefit analysis studies are needed to formally test potential benefit.

Risk of primary osteoporosis score (RPOPs): an algorithm model for primary osteoporosis risk assessment in grass-roots hospital

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop and validate a lasso regression algorithm model which was established by correlation factors of bone mineral density (BMD) and could be accurately predicted a high-risk population of primary osteoporosis (POP). It provides a rapid, economical and acceptable early screening method for osteoporosis in grass-roots hospitals.

METHODS

We collected 120 subjects from primary osteoporosis screening population in Zhejiang Quhua Hospital between May 2021 and November 2021 who were divided into three groups (normal, osteopenia and osteoporosis) according to the BMD T-score. The levels of three micro-RNAs in the plasma of these people were detected and assessed by qRT-PCR. At the same time, the levels of β-CTX and t-P1NP in serum of the three groups were determined. Based on the cluster random sampling method, 84 subjects (84/120, 70%) were selected as the training set and the rest were the test set. Lasso regression was used to screen characteristic variables and establish an algorithm model to evaluate the population at high risk of POP which was evaluated and tested in an independent test cohort. The feature variable screening process was used 10-fold cross validation to find the optimal lambda.

RESULTS

The osteoporosis risk score was established in the training set: Risk of primary osteoporosis score (RPOPs) = -0.1497785 + 2.52Age - 0.19miR21 + 0.35miR182 + 0.17β-CTx. The sensitivity, precision and accuracy of RPOPs in an independent test cohort were 79.17%, 82.61% and 75%, respectively. The AUC in the test set was 0.80. Some risk factors have a significant impact on the abnormal bone mass of the subjects. These risk factors were female (p = 0.00013), older than 55 (p < 2.2e-16) and BMI < 24 (p = 0.0091) who should pay more attention to their bone health.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we successfully constructed and validated an early screening model of osteoporosis that is able to recognize people at high risk for developing osteoporosis and remind them to take preventive measures. But it is necessary to conduct further external and prospective validation research in large sample size for RPOPs prediction models.

Romosozumab efficacy and safety in European patients enrolled in the FRAME trial

In this post hoc analysis, we assessed romosozumab efficacy and safety in European patients enrolled in FRAME. Romosozumab treatment through 12 months, followed by denosumab for a further 24 months, resulted in early and sustained risk reduction for major fracture categories, associated with large gains in bone mineral density.

INTRODUCTION

In the multinational FRAME phase 3 trial of romosozumab in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, marked differences between clinical and non-vertebral fracture outcomes were observed among patients from Central and Southern America versus rest of world. This post hoc analysis assessed romosozumab efficacy and safety in European patients enrolled in the FRAME trial and extension study.

METHODS

In FRAME (NCT01575834), patients were randomised 1:1 to romosozumab 210 mg or placebo monthly (QM) for 12 months, followed by open-label denosumab 60 mg Q6M to month 36, including a 12-month extension study. We report incidence of major fracture outcomes, bone mineral density (BMD) change from baseline and safety for European patients enrolled in FRAME.

RESULTS

In FRAME, 3013/7180 (41.96%) patients were European; 1494 received romosozumab and 1519 received placebo. Through 12 months, romosozumab reduced fracture risk versus placebo for non-vertebral fracture (1.4% versus 3.0%; p = 0.004), clinical fracture (1.4% versus 3.6%; p &lt; 0.001), new vertebral fracture (0.4% versus 2.1%; p &lt; 0.001) and major osteoporotic fracture (0.9% versus 2.8%; p &lt; 0.001), with results sustained through 36 months following transition to denosumab. Hip fractures were numerically reduced with romosozumab at month 12 (0.2% versus 0.6%; p = 0.092). Romosozumab increased BMD versus placebo at month 12; all patients in the romosozumab and placebo groups experienced further increases by month 36 after transition to denosumab. Adverse events were balanced between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Among European patients in FRAME, romosozumab resulted in early and sustained risk reduction for all major fracture categories, associated with large BMD gains that continued after transition to denosumab.

Effect of competing mortality risks on predictive performance of the QFracture risk prediction tool for major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture: external validation cohort study in a UK primary care population

Objective

To externally evaluate the QFracture risk prediction tool for predicting the risk of major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture.

Design

External validation cohort study.

Setting

UK primary care population. Linked general practice (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Gold), mortality registration (Office of National Statistics), and hospital inpatient (Hospital Episode Statistics) data, from 1 January 2004 to 31 March 2016.

Participants

2 747 409 women and 2 684 730 men, aged 30-99 years, with up-to-standard linked data that had passed CPRD checks for at least one year.

Main outcome measures

Two outcomes were modelled based on the QFracture: major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. Major osteoporotic fracture was defined as any hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus, or vertebral crush fracture, from general practice, hospital discharge, and mortality data. The QFracture 10 year predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture was calculated, and performance evaluated versus observed 10 year risk of fracture in the whole population, and in subgroups based on age and comorbidity. QFracture calibration was examined accounting for, and not accounting for, competing risk of mortality from causes other than the major osteoporotic fracture.

Results

2 747 409 women with 95 598 major osteoporotic fractures and 36 400 hip fractures, and 2 684 730 men with 34 321 major osteoporotic fractures and 13 379 hip fractures were included in the analysis. The incidence of all fractures was higher than in the QFracture internal derivation. Competing risk of mortality was more common than fracture from middle age onwards. QFracture discrimination in the whole population was excellent or good for major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture (Harrell's C statistic in women 0.813 and 0.918, and 0.738 and 0.888 in men, respectively), but was poor to moderate in age subgroups (eg, Harrell's C statistic in women and men aged 85-99 years was 0.576 and 0.624 for major osteoporotic fractures, and 0.601 and 0.637 for hip fractures, respectively). Without accounting for competing risks, QFracture systematically under-predicted the risk of fracture in all models, and more so for major osteoporotic fracture than for hip fracture, and more so in older people. Accounting for competing risks, QFracture still under-predicted the risk of fracture in the whole population, but over-prediction was considerable in older age groups and in people with high comorbidities at high risk of fracture.

Conclusions

The QFracture risk prediction tool systematically under-predicted the risk of fracture (because of incomplete determination of fracture rates) and over-predicted the risk in older people and in those with more comorbidities (because of competing mortality). The use of QFracture in its current form needs to be reviewed, particularly in people at high risk of death from other causes.

Risk assessment tools for osteoporosis and fractures in 2022

Osteoporosis is one of the frequently encountered non-communicable diseases in the world today. Several hundred million people have osteoporosis, with many more at risk. The clinical feature is a fragility fracture (FF), which results in major reductions in the quality and quantity of life, coupled with a huge financial burden. In recognition of the growing importance, the World Health Organisation established a working group 30 years ago tasked with providing a comprehensive report to understand and assess the risk of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most widely endorsed technology for assessing the risk of fracture or diagnosing osteoporosis before a fracture occurs, but others are available. In clinical practice, important distinctions are essential to optimise the use of risk assessments. Traditional tools lack specificity and were designed for populations to identify groups at higher risk using a 'one-size-fits-all' approach. Much has changed, though the purpose of risk assessment tools remains the same. In 2022, many tools are available to aid the identification of those most at risk, either likely to have osteoporosis or suffer the clinical consequence. Modern technology, enhanced imaging, proteomics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and big data science will greatly advance a more personalised risk assessment into the future. Clinicians today need to understand not only which tool is most effective and efficient for use in their practice, but also which tool to use for which patient and for what purpose. A greater understanding of the process of risk assessment, deciding who should be screened, and how to assess fracture risk and prognosis in older men and women more comprehensively will greatly reduce the burden of osteoporosis for patients, society, and healthcare systems worldwide. In this paper, we review the current status of risk assessment, screening and best practice for osteoporosis, summarise areas of uncertainty, and make some suggestions for future developments, including a more personalised approach for individuals.