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Cordiner R, Wan K, Hajat S, Macintyre HL. Accounting for adaptation when projecting climate change impacts on health: A review of temperature-related health impacts. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 188:108761. [PMID: 38788417 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2024] [Revised: 05/17/2024] [Accepted: 05/18/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024]
Abstract
Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures can cause harm to human health. Due to global warming, heat-related health effects are likely to increase substantially in future unless populations adapt to living in a warmer world. Adaptation to temperature may occur through physiological acclimatisation, behavioural mechanisms, and planned adaptation. A fundamental step in informing responses to climate change is understanding how adaptation can be appropriately accounted for when estimating future health burdens. Previous studies modelling adaptation have used a variety of methods, and it is often unclear how underlying assumptions of adaptation are made and if they are based on evidence. Consequently, the most appropriate way to quantitatively model adaptation in projections of health impacts is currently unknown. With increasing interest from decisionmakers around implementation of adaptation strategies, it is important to consider the role of adaptation in anticipating future health burdens of climate change. To address this, a literature review using systematic scoping methods was conducted to document the quantitative methods employed by studies projecting future temperature-related health impacts under climate change that also consider adaptation. Approaches employed in studies were coded into methodological categories. Categories were discussed and refined between reviewers during synthesis. Fifty-nine studies were included and grouped into eight methodological categories. Methods of including adaptation in projections have changed over time with more recent studies using a combination of approaches or modelling adaptation based on specific adaptation strategies or socioeconomic conditions. The most common approaches to model adaptation are heat threshold shifts and reductions in the exposure-response slope. Just under 20% of studies were identified as using an intervention-based empirical basis for statistical assumptions. Including adaptation in projections considerably reduced the projected temperature-mortality burden in the future. Researchers should ensure that all future impact assessments include adaptation uncertainty in projections and assumptions are based on empirical evidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rhiannon Cordiner
- Centre for Climate and Health Security, UK Health Security Agency, 10 South Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 4PU, England.
| | - Kai Wan
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, England.
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, England.
| | - Helen L Macintyre
- Centre for Climate and Health Security, UK Health Security Agency, 10 South Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 4PU, England; School of Geography Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, England.
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Jalali R, Romaszko J, Dragańska E, Gromadziński L, Cymes I, Sokołowski JB, Poterała M, Markuszewski L, Romaszko-Wojtowicz AM, Jeznach-Steinhagen A, Glińska-Lewczuk K. Heat and cold stress increases the risk of paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0296412. [PMID: 38165960 PMCID: PMC10760728 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0296412] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 01/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia (PSVT) is a common arrhythmia in adults. Its occurrence depends on the presence of the reentry circuit and the trigger of the paroxysm. Stress, emotional factors, and comorbidities favour the occurrence of such an episode. We hypothesized that the occurrence of PSVT follows extreme thermal episodes. The retrospective analysis was based on the data collected from three hospital emergency departments in Poland (Olsztyn, Radom, and Wroclaw) involving 816 admissions for PSVT in the period of 2016-2021. To test the hypothesis, we applied the Universal Climate Thermal Index (UTCI) to objectively determine exposure to cold or heat stress. The risk (RR) for PSVT increased to 1.37 (p = 0.006) in cold stress and 1.24 (p = 0.05) in heat stress when compared to thermoneutral conditions. The likelihood of PSVT during cold/heat stress is higher in women (RR = 1.59, p< 0.001 and RR = 1.36, p = 0.024, respectively) than in men (RR = 0.64 at p = 0.088 and RR = 0.78, p = 0.083, respectively). The susceptibility for PSVT was even higher in all groups of women after exclusion of perimenopausal group of women, in thermal stress (RR = 1.74, p< 0.001, RR = 1.56, p = 0.029, respectively). Females, particularly at the perimenopausal stage and men irrespective of age were less likely to develop PSVT under thermal stress as compared to thermoneutral conditions. Progress in climate change requires searching for universal methods and tools to monitor relationships between humans and climate. Our paper confirms that the UTCI is the universal tool describing the impact of thermal stress on the human body and its high usefulness in medical researches.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rakesh Jalali
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
| | - Jerzy Romaszko
- Department of Family Medicine and Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
| | - Ewa Dragańska
- Department of Water Management and Climatology, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
| | - Leszek Gromadziński
- Department of Cardiology and Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Collegium Medicum, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
| | - Iwona Cymes
- Department of Water Management and Climatology, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
| | | | - Magdalena Poterała
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences and Health Science, Kazimierz Pulaski University of Technology and Humanities in Radom, Radom, Poland
| | - Leszek Markuszewski
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences and Health Science, Kazimierz Pulaski University of Technology and Humanities in Radom, Radom, Poland
| | - Anna Maria Romaszko-Wojtowicz
- Department of Pulmonology, School of Public Health, Collegium Medicum, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
| | | | - Katarzyna Glińska-Lewczuk
- Department of Water Management and Climatology, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
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Ho JY, Shi Y, Lau KKL, Ng EYY, Ren C, Goggins WB. Urban heat island effect-related mortality under extreme heat and non-extreme heat scenarios: A 2010-2019 case study in Hong Kong. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 858:159791. [PMID: 36328261 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159791] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2022] [Revised: 10/02/2022] [Accepted: 10/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The urban heat island (UHI) effect exacerbates the adverse impact of heat on human health. However, while the UHI effect is further intensified during extreme heat events, prior studies have rarely mapped the UHI effect during extreme heat events to assess its direct temperature impact on mortality. This study examined the UHI effect during extreme heat and non-extreme heat scenarios and compared their temperature-mortality associations in Hong Kong from 2010 to 2019. Four urban heat island degree hour (UHIdh) scenarios were mapped onto Hong Kong's tertiary planning units and classified into three levels (Low, Moderate, and High). We assessed the association between temperature and non-external mortality of populations living in each UHIdh level for the extreme heat/non-extreme heat scenarios during the 2010-2019 hot seasons. Our results showed substantial differences between the temperature-mortality associations in the three levels under the UHIdh extreme heat scenario (UHIdh_EH). While there was no evidence of increased mortality in Low UHIdh_EH areas, the mortality risk in Moderate and High UHIdh_EH areas were significantly increased during periods of hot temperature, with the High UHIdh_EH areas displaying almost double the risk (RR: 1.08, 95%CI: 1.03, 1.14 vs. RR: 1.05, 95 % CI: 1.01, 1.09). However, other non-extreme heat UHI scenarios did not demonstrate as prominent of a difference. When stratified by age, the heat effects were found in Moderate and High UHIdh_EH among the elderly aged 75 and above. Our study found a difference in the temperature-mortality associations based on UHI intensity and potential heat vulnerability of populations during extreme heat events. Preventive measures should be taken to mitigate heat especially in urban areas with high UHI intensity during extreme heat events, with particular attention and support for those prone to heat vulnerability, such as the elderly and poorer populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Janice Y Ho
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Yuan Shi
- Institute of Future Cities, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Kevin K L Lau
- Institute of Future Cities, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Luleå University of Technology, Sweden
| | - Edward Y Y Ng
- Institute of Future Cities, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; School of Architecture, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Chao Ren
- Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
| | - William B Goggins
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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Rai M, Breitner S, Zhang S, Rappold AG, Schneider A. Achievements and gaps in projection studies on the temperature-attributable health burden: Where should we be headed? FRONTIERS IN EPIDEMIOLOGY 2022; 2:1-9. [PMID: 37942471 PMCID: PMC10631562 DOI: 10.3389/fepid.2022.1063871] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
Future projection of the temperature-related health burden, including mortality and hospital admissions, is a growing field of research. These studies aim to provide crucial information for decision-makers considering existing health policies as well as integrating targeted adaptation strategies to evade the health burden. However, this field of research is still overshadowed by large uncertainties. These uncertainties exist to an extent in the future climate and population models used by such studies but largely in the disparities in underlying assumptions. Existing studies differ in the factors incorporated for projection and strategies for considering the future adaptation of the population to temperature. These differences exist to a great degree because of a lack of robust evidence as well as gaps in the field of climate epidemiology that still require extensive input from the research community. This narrative review summarizes the current status of projection studies of temperature-attributable health burden, the guiding assumptions behind them, the common grounds, as well as the differences. Overall, the review aims to highlight existing evidence and knowledge gaps as a basis for designing future studies on temperature-attributable health burden estimation. Finding a robust methodology for projecting the future health burden could be a milestone for climate epidemiologists as this would largely benefit the world when applying this technique to project the climate-attributable cause-specific health burden and adapt our existing health policies accordingly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masna Rai
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Center Munich, Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Susanne Breitner
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Center Munich, Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Siqi Zhang
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Center Munich, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Ana G. Rappold
- Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, Durham, NC, United States
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Rai M, Breitner S, Wolf K, Peters A, Schneider A, Chen K. Future temperature-related mortality considering physiological and socioeconomic adaptation: a modelling framework. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e784-e792. [PMID: 36208641 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00195-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2021] [Revised: 07/27/2022] [Accepted: 07/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND As the climate changes, it is crucial to focus not only on mitigation measures but also on building climate change resilience by developing efficient adaptation strategies. Although population adaptation is a major determinant of future climate-related health burden, it is not well accounted for in studies that project the health impact of climate change. We propose a methodological framework for temperature-related mortality that incorporates two simultaneous adaptation-sensitivity pathways: the physiological pathway, considering both heat adaptation and cold sensitivity, and the socioeconomic pathway, which is influenced by changes in future adaptive capacities. To demonstrate its utility we apply the framework to a case study mortality time-series dataset from Bavaria, Germany. METHODS In this modelling framework, we used extrapolated location-specific and age-specific baseline exposure-response functions and propose different future scenarios of cold sensitivity and heat adaptation on the basis of varying slopes of these exposure-response functions. We also incorporated future socioeconomic adaptation in the exposure-response functions using projections of gross domestic product under the respective shared socioeconomic pathways. Future adaptable fractions, representing the deaths avoided under each of the future scenarios, are projected under combinations of two climate change scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathway [SSP]1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0) and the respective plausible population projection scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), also incorporating the future changes in demographic age structure and mortality. The case study for this framework was done for five districts in Bavaria, for both total non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality. The baseline data was obtained for the period 1990-2006, and the future period was defined as 2083-99. FINDINGS In our Bavaria case study, average temperature was projected to increase by 2099 by an average of 1·1°C under SSP1-2.6 and by 4·1°C under SSP3-7.0. We observed the adaptable fraction to be largely influenced by socioeconomic adaptation for both total mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality, and for both climate change scenarios. For example, for total mortality, the highest adaptable fraction of 18·56% (95% empirical CI 10·77-23·67) was observed under the SSP1-2.6 future scenario, in the presence of socioeconomic adaptation and under the highest heat adaptation (10%) provided the cold sensitivity remains 0%. The cold adaptable fraction is lower than the heat adaptable fraction under all scenarios. In the absence of socioeconomic adaptation, population ageing will lead to higher temperature-related mortality. INTERPRETATION Our developed framework helps to systematically understand the effectiveness of adaptation mechanisms. In the future, socioeconomic adaptation is estimated to play a major role in determining temperature-related excess mortality. Furthermore, cold sensitivity might outweigh heat adaptation in the majority of locations worldwide. Similarly, population ageing is projected to continue to determine future temperature-related mortality. FUNDING EU Horizon 2020 (EXHAUSTION).
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Affiliation(s)
- Masna Rai
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany.
| | - Susanne Breitner
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Kathrin Wolf
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Annette Peters
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; German Research Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner-Site Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Kai Chen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences and Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
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Kargapolova N, Ogorodnikov V. Stochastic Model of Conditional Non-stationary Time Series of the Wind Chill Index in West Siberia. Methodol Comput Appl Probab 2022. [DOI: 10.1007/s11009-021-09861-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
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Romaszko J, Dragańska E, Jalali R, Cymes I, Glińska-Lewczuk K. Universal Climate Thermal Index as a prognostic tool in medical science in the context of climate change: A systematic review. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 828:154492. [PMID: 35278561 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154492] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2021] [Revised: 01/17/2022] [Accepted: 03/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The assessment of the impact of meteorological factors on the epidemiology of various diseases and on human pathophysiology and physiology requires a comprehensive approach and new tools independent of currently occurring climate change. The thermal comfort index, i.e., Universal Climate Thermal Index (UTCI), is gaining more and more recognition from researchers interested in such assessments. This index facilitates the evaluation of the impact of cold stress and heat stress on the human organism and the assessment of the incidence of weather-related diseases. This work aims at identifying those areas of medical science for which the UTCI was applied for scientific research as well as its popularization among clinicians, epidemiologists, and specialists in public health management. This is a systematic review of literature found in Pubmed, Sciencedirect and Web of Science databases from which, consistent with PRISMA guidelines, original papers employing the UTCI in studies related to health, physiological parameters, and epidemiologic applications were extracted. Out of the total number of 367 papers identified in the databases, 33 original works were included in the analysis. The selected publications were analyzed in terms of determining the areas of medical science in which the UTCI was applied. The majority of studies were devoted to the broadly understood mortality, cardiac events, and emergency medicine. A significant disproportion between publications discussing heat stress and those utilizing the UTCI for its assessment was revealed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jerzy Romaszko
- Department of Family Medicine and Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland.
| | - Ewa Dragańska
- Department of Water Management and Climatology, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland
| | - Rakesh Jalali
- School of Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland
| | - Iwona Cymes
- Department of Water Management and Climatology, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland
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Reducing the Fermentability of Wheat with a Starch Binding Agent Reduces Some of the Negative Effects of Heat Stress in Sheep. Animals (Basel) 2022; 12:ani12111396. [PMID: 35681860 PMCID: PMC9179450 DOI: 10.3390/ani12111396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2022] [Revised: 05/24/2022] [Accepted: 05/26/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of reducing the fermentability of grains on thermoregulatory responses in heat stressed (HS) lambs. To achieve this, wheat grain treated with a commercial starch binding agent, Bioprotect, is compared to maize, which has already demonstrated effects in ameliorating heat stress-induced thermoregulation responses and untreated wheat grains. An initial in vitro experiment was conducted to examine cumulative gas production from the fermentation of wheat grain with different dosages of the commercial starch binding agent, Bioprotect. Based on the in vitro results, an in vivo lamb experiment was conducted using 24 Merino lambs (1 year old; 42.6 ± 3.6 kg BW). The lambs were offered one of three dietary treatments: a wheat-based diet (WD), a Bioprotect treated wheat-based diet (BD), and a maize-based diet (MD). Three successive 1-week experimental periods were conducted with lambs from all dietary groups (P1, P2, and P3). During P1, lambs were exposed to a TN environment and fed a 1.7× Maintenance feed intake (MF) level; in P2, lambs were kept in a HS environment and fed a 1.7× MF level; and in P3, animals were kept in a HS environment and fed a 2× MF level. The in vitro experiment revealed a reduction in cumulative gas production (p < 0.05) from the Bioprotect treated wheat compared to untreated wheat samples. In the in vivo component of the study, the replacement of wheat with maize or 2% Bioprotect-treated wheat reduced the respiration rate (p < 0.001) and heart rate (p ≤ 0.01) of lambs during HS. There was a reduction in the concentration of blood gas variables such as a base excess of blood (BE(b)) and extracellular fluid (BE(ecf)), bicarbonate (CHCO3−), the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2), the total concentration of carbon dioxide (ctCO2), and sodium (Na+) (p ≤ 0.001 for all) during the periods of HS compared to the thermoneutral conditions. Moreover, BD- and MD-fed lambs had a higher blood potassium concentration (K+) than the WD-fed lambs (p = 0.008). The results of the present study suggest that Bioprotect can be a viable feed treatment strategy for treating rapidly fermentable grains such as wheat to alleviate the effects of HS. Further, Bioprotect-treated wheat could be an option to replace maize in concentrate rations in jurisdictions where maize is cost-prohibitive or unavailable.
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Xing Q, Sun Z, Tao Y, Shang J, Miao S, Xiao C, Zheng C. Projections of future temperature-related cardiovascular mortality under climate change, urbanization and population aging in Beijing, China. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2022; 163:107231. [PMID: 35436720 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2021] [Revised: 03/28/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2022] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is causing the surface temperature to rise and the extreme weather events to increase in frequency and intensity, which will pose potential threats to the survival and health of residents. Beijing is facing multiple challenges such as coping with climate change, urbanization, and population aging, which puts huge decision-making pressure on decision maker. However, few studies that systematically consider the health effects of climate change, urbanization, and population aging for China. Based on the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and 13 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study obtained the temporal and spatial distribution of surface temperature through statistical downscaling methods, and comprehensively explored the independent and comprehensive effects of urbanization and population aging on the projection of future temperature-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the context of climate and population change. The results showed that only improving urbanization can reduce future temperature-related CVD mortality by 1.7-18.3%, and only intensified aging can increase future temperature-related CVD mortality by 48.8-325.9%. Taking into account the improving urbanization and intensified aging, future temperature-related CVD mortality would increase by 44.1-256.6%, and the increase was slightly lower than that of only intensified aging. Therefore, the intensified aging was the biggest disadvantage in tackling climate change, which would obviously magnify the mortality risks of temperature-related CVD in the future. Although the advancement of urbanization would alleviate the adverse effects of the intensified aging population, the mitigation effects would be limited. Even so, Urbanization should be continued to reduce health risks for residents. These findings would contribute to formulate policies related to mitigate climate change and reduce baseline mortality rate (especially the elderly) in international mega-city - Beijing. In addition, relevant departments should improve the medical health care level and optimize the allocation of social resources to better cope with and adapt to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qian Xing
- Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China
| | - ZhaoBin Sun
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China; Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
| | - Yan Tao
- Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.
| | - Jing Shang
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China
| | - Shiguang Miao
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China
| | - Chan Xiao
- National Climate Center, China Meteorology Administration, Beijing 100081, China
| | - Canjun Zheng
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
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Mapping Heat-Health Vulnerability Based on Remote Sensing: A Case Study in Karachi. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14071590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
As a result of global climate change, the frequency and intensity of heat waves have increased significantly. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), extreme temperatures in southwestern Pakistan have exceeded 54 °C in successive years. The identification and assessment of heat-health vulnerability (HHV) are important for controlling heat-related diseases and mortality. At present, heat waves have many definitions. To better describe the heat wave mortality risk, we redefine the heat wave by regarding the most frequent temperature (MFT) as the minimum temperature threshold for HHV for the first time. In addition, different indicators that serve as relevant evaluation factors of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability are selected to conduct a kilometre-level HHV assessment. The hesitant analytic hierarchy process (H-AHP) method is used to evaluate each index weight. Finally, we incorporate the weights into the data layers to establish the final HHV assessment model. The vulnerability in the study area is divided into five levels, high, middle-high, medium, middle-low and low, with proportions of 3.06%, 46.55%, 41.85%, 8.53% and 0%, respectively. Health facilities and urbanization were found to provide advantages for vulnerability reduction. Our study improved the resolution to describe the spatial heterogeneity of HHV, which provided a reference for more detailed model construction. It can help local government formulate more targeted control measures to reduce morbidity and mortality during heat waves.
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Abstract
Many studies project that climate change can cause a significant number of excess deaths. Yet, in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that determine the social cost of carbon (SCC) and prescribe optimal climate policy, human mortality impacts are limited and not updated to the latest scientific understanding. This study extends the DICE-2016 IAM to explicitly include temperature-related mortality impacts by estimating a climate-mortality damage function. We introduce a metric, the mortality cost of carbon (MCC), that estimates the number of deaths caused by the emissions of one additional metric ton of CO2. In the baseline emissions scenario, the 2020 MCC is 2.26 × 10‒4 [low to high estimate -1.71× 10‒4 to 6.78 × 10‒4] excess deaths per metric ton of 2020 emissions. This implies that adding 4,434 metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2020-equivalent to the lifetime emissions of 3.5 average Americans-causes one excess death globally in expectation between 2020-2100. Incorporating mortality costs increases the 2020 SCC from $37 to $258 [-$69 to $545] per metric ton in the baseline emissions scenario. Optimal climate policy changes from gradual emissions reductions starting in 2050 to full decarbonization by 2050 when mortality is considered.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Daniel Bressler
- Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs, New York, NY, USA.
- The Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
- Columbia University Center for Environmental Economics and Policy, New York, NY, USA.
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12
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Sharafkhani R, Khanjani N, Bakhtiari B, Jahani Y, Entezarmahdi R. The effect of cold and heat waves on mortality in Urmia a cold region in the North West of Iran. J Therm Biol 2020; 94:102745. [PMID: 33292986 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2020.102745] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2020] [Revised: 06/29/2020] [Accepted: 09/22/2020] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Few studies have investigated the different extreme temperature effects (heat-cold) of one geographical location at the same time in Iran. This study was conducted to assess the impact of heat and cold waves on mortality in Urmia city, which has a cold and mountainous climate. Distributed Lag Non-linear Models combined with a quasi-Poisson regression were used to assess the impact of heat (HW) and cold waves (CW) on mortality in subgroups, controlled for potential confounders such as long-term trend of daily mortality, day of week effect, holidays, mean temperature, humidity, wind speed and air pollutants. The heat/cold effect was divided into two general categories A-main effect (the effect caused by temperature), B-added effect (the effect caused by persistence of extreme temperature). Results show that there was no relation between HW and respiratory and cardiovascular death, but in main effects, HW(H1) significantly increased, the risk of Non-Accidental Death (NAD) in lag 0 (Cumulative Excess Risk (CER) NAD = 31(CI; 4-65)). Also in added effects, HW had a significant effect on NAD (CER H1; NAD; lag;0-2 = 31(CI; 5, 51), CER H2; NAD; lag;0-2 = 26(CI; 6, 48)). There was no relation between CW and respiratory death and cardiovascular death, but in added effects, CW(C1) significantly decreased, the risk of non-accidental death in initial lags (CER C1; NAD; lag;0-2 = -19 (CI; -35, -2)). It seems that high temperatures and heat waves increase the risk of non-accidental mortality in northwest of Iran.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rahim Sharafkhani
- School of Public Health, Khoy University of Medical Sciences, Khoy, Iran.
| | - Narges Khanjani
- Environmental Health Engineering Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran; Monash Centre for Occupational & Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
| | - Bahram Bakhtiari
- Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
| | - Yunes Jahani
- Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
| | - Rasool Entezarmahdi
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran.
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13
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Mazidi M, Speakman JR. Predicted impact of increasing average ambient temperature over the coming century on mortality from cardiovascular disease and stroke in the USA. Atherosclerosis 2020; 313:1-7. [PMID: 32980563 DOI: 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2020.08.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2020] [Revised: 08/04/2020] [Accepted: 08/13/2020] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Future climate change may adversely impact human health. The direct effects of extreme hot temperatures on mortality are well established, and their future impact well modelled. However, less extreme changes in ambient temperature (Ta) have been previously associated with increased mortality from circulatory and metabolic diseases, but their future impact is less clear. METHODS We evaluated the spatial association between cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and stroke mortality with average Ta across the US mainland, and then used this relationship to model future temporal trends in mortality from CVD and stroke until the end of the century (2099), using different warming scenarios for each US county. RESULTS Ta was significantly associated with crude levels of CVD mortality (R2 = 0.269) and stroke mortality (R2 = 0.264). Moreover, there was a strong positive link between Ta and physical inactivity (PIA) (R2 = 0.215). Once adjusted for PIA the associations between Ta and CVD and stroke mortality were much reduced (R2 = 0.054 and R2 = 0.091 respectively) but still highly significant. CONCLUSIONS By 2099 modelling suggests between 8844 and 25,486 extra deaths each year from CVD, and between 2,063 and 13,039 extra deaths for stroke, beyond the increases expected from population expansion. Mortality due to changes in the mean Ta may be as, or more, significant than the impacts of extreme hot weather events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohsen Mazidi
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, Kings College London, London, UK
| | - John R Speakman
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Developmental Biology, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chaoyang, Beijing, China; School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Scotland, UK; CAS Center of Excellence in Animal Evolution and Genetics, Kunming, Yunnan, China.
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14
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Romaszko-Wojtowicz A, Cymes I, Dragańska E, Doboszyńska A, Romaszko J, Glińska-Lewczuk K. Relationship between biometeorological factors and the number of hospitalizations due to asthma. Sci Rep 2020; 10:9593. [PMID: 32533079 PMCID: PMC7293260 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-66746-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2020] [Accepted: 05/26/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The incidence of asthma exacerbation depends on atmospheric conditions, including such meteorological factors as the ambient temperature, relative air humidity or concentration of atmospheric aerosols. An assessment of relations between the frequency of asthma exacerbation and environmental conditions was made according to the meteorological components, the biometeorological index UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index), as well as selected air quality parameters, including concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5. The study was conducted on the basis of a retrospective analysis of medical data collected at the Independent Public Hospital of Tuberculosis and Pulmonary Diseases in Olsztyn (Poland). Our analysis of patient data (from 1 January 2013 until 31 December 2017) showed a significant correlation between the number of asthma exacerbation and the UTCI value. More frequent asthma exacerbations are observed in patients aged over 65 years when air humidity increases. The UTCI values contained within class 5, describing thermoneutral conditions, correspond to an average frequency of asthma exacerbation. A decline in the UTCI value leads to a reduced number of asthma exacerbation, while a rise makes the cases of asthma exacerbations increase.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Romaszko-Wojtowicz
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Pulmonology, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland.
| | - Iwona Cymes
- Department of Water Resources, Climatology and Environmental Management, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
| | - Ewa Dragańska
- Department of Water Resources, Climatology and Environmental Management, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
| | - Anna Doboszyńska
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Pulmonology, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
| | - Jerzy Romaszko
- School of Medicine, Department of Family Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
| | - Katarzyna Glińska-Lewczuk
- Department of Water Resources, Climatology and Environmental Management, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Olsztyn, Poland
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15
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Mabuya B, Scholes M. The Three Little Houses: A Comparative Study of Indoor and Ambient Temperatures in Three Low-Cost Housing Types in Gauteng and Mpumalanga, South Africa. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17103524. [PMID: 32443548 PMCID: PMC7277949 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17103524] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2020] [Revised: 05/04/2020] [Accepted: 05/07/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Low-cost houses make up the majority of the homes in townships (racially segregated areas which are usually underdeveloped) in South Africa and there has been limited research on the indoor temperatures experienced by residents of these homes. As a developing nation the price and availability of construction materials, often takes precedence over the potential thermal efficiency of the house. Occupants of low-cost houses are particularly vulnerable to climatic changes which may increase the likelihood of exposure to extreme temperatures in South Africa. This study focused on the relationship between indoor and ambient temperature in two study areas namely; Kathorus in Gauteng and Wakkerstroom in Mpumalanga. Three housing types were included in the study (government funded apartheid era houses, government funded post-apartheid houses and informal houses (shacks)). Temperature data loggers were installed in each home, in each area, from June 2017 to July 2018. Ambient temperature data were collected for the period June 2017 to July 2018. The houses studied were built with different materials which affect their thermal efficiency. The study also included semi-structured interviews where occupant's perspectives on housing could be surveyed. Household temperatures in Kathorus and Wakkerstroom, both in the warmer and colder months fluctuated substantially throughout the day. There was an 8 °C, 9 °C and 14 °C fluctuations in daily indoor temperatures of apartheid-era, post-apartheid and shacks houses, and daily outdoor fluctuations of 5-15 °C, with higher fluctuations measured in Wakkerstroom. Generally, ambient and indoor temperatures were correlated but showed high variability. Indoor data for the winter months were less well correlated. Data showed that residents are subjected to extreme temperatures and these are expected to increase. The householder's perceptions of thermal comfort were often not related to indoor temperature readings but to behavioural changes including the use of warm clothes and wood burning stoves. The study's findings suggest that a majority of low-cost houses are thermally inefficient especially for those built in the post-apartheid era and shacks. With these houses showing a clear link between ambient and indoor temperature fluctuations. The occupants of these homes are poor and vulnerable to health risks which could be exacerbated by temperature fluctuations. Small changes such as installation of ceilings and use of insulation could make a large difference in these houses.
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16
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Numerical Stochastic Model of Non-stationary Time Series of the Wind Chill Index. Methodol Comput Appl Probab 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/s11009-020-09778-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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17
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Williams AA, Allen JG, Catalano PJ, Spengler JD. The Role of Individual and Small-Area Social and Environmental Factors on Heat Vulnerability to Mortality Within and Outside of the Home in Boston, MA. CLIMATE 2020; 8. [PMID: 35368800 PMCID: PMC8974638 DOI: 10.3390/cli8020029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Climate change is resulting in heatwaves that are more frequent, severe, and longer lasting, which is projected to double-to-triple the heat-related mortality in Boston, MA if adequate climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies are not implemented. A case-only analysis was used to examine subject and small-area neighborhood characteristics that modified the association between hot days and mortality. Deaths of Boston, Massachusetts residents that occurred from 2000–2015 were analyzed in relation to the daily temperature and heat index during the warm season as part of the case-only analysis. The modification by small-area (census tract, CT) social, and environmental (natural and built) factors was assessed. At-home mortality on hot days was driven by both social and environmental factors, differentially across the City of Boston census tracts, with a greater proportion of low-to-no income individuals or those with limited English proficiency being more highly represented among those who died during the study period; but small-area built environment features, like street trees and enhanced energy efficiency, were able to reduce the relative odds of death within and outside the home. At temperatures below current local thresholds used for heat warnings and advisories, there was increased relative odds of death from substance abuse and assault-related altercations. Geographic weighted regression analyses were used to examine these relationships spatially within a subset of at-home deaths with high-resolution temperature and humidity data. This revealed spatially heterogeneous associations between at-home mortality and social and environmental vulnerability factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Augusta A. Williams
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
- Correspondence:
| | - Joseph G. Allen
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Paul J. Catalano
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
- Department of Data Sciences, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - John D. Spengler
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
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18
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Abstract
Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text. Reliable estimates of future health impacts due to climate change are needed to inform and contribute to the design of efficient adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, projecting health burdens associated to specific environmental stressors is a challenging task because of the complex risk patterns and inherent uncertainty of future climate scenarios. These assessments involve multidisciplinary knowledge, requiring expertise in epidemiology, statistics, and climate science, among other subjects. Here, we present a methodologic framework to estimate future health impacts under climate change scenarios based on a defined set of assumptions and advanced statistical techniques developed in time-series analysis in environmental epidemiology. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a step-by-step hands-on tutorial structured in well-defined sections that cover the main methodological steps and essential elements. Each section provides a thorough description of each step, along with a discussion on available analytical options and the rationale on the choices made in the proposed framework. The illustration is complemented with a practical example of study using real-world data and a series of R scripts included as Supplementary Digital Content; http://links.lww.com/EDE/B504, which facilitates its replication and extension on other environmental stressors, outcomes, study settings, and projection scenarios. Users should critically assess the potential modeling alternatives and modify the framework and R code to adapt them to their research on health impact projections.
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19
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Wang Y, Wang A, Zhai J, Tao H, Jiang T, Su B, Yang J, Wang G, Liu Q, Gao C, Kundzewicz ZW, Zhan M, Feng Z, Fischer T. Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming. Nat Commun 2019; 10:3376. [PMID: 31388009 PMCID: PMC6684802 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11283-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2017] [Accepted: 07/03/2019] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. Here we assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. For this, the urban population is projected under five SSPs, and 31 GCM runs as well as temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986–2005 to 48.8–67.1 per million for the 1.5 °C warming and to 59.2–81.3 per million for the 2.0 °C warming, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C will lead to more than 27.9 thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually. Heatwaves are expected to increase under climate change, and so are the associated deaths. Here the authors determine the regional high temperature thresholds for 27 metropolises in China and analyze the changes to heat-related mortality, showing that the additional global-warming temperature increase of 0.5°C, from 1.5°C to 2.0°C, will lead to tens of thousands of additional deaths, annually.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanjun Wang
- Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
| | - Anqian Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China.,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
| | - Jianqing Zhai
- National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Hui Tao
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
| | - Tong Jiang
- Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
| | - Buda Su
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China.
| | - Jun Yang
- Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, 511443, China
| | - Guojie Wang
- Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Chao Gao
- Faculty of Architectural, Civil Engineering and Environment, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 31511, China
| | - Zbigniew W Kundzewicz
- Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.,Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznan, Poland
| | | | - Zhiqiang Feng
- School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Thomas Fischer
- Department of Geosciences, Eberhard Karls University, Tübingen, 72070, Germany.
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20
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Singh N, Mhawish A, Ghosh S, Banerjee T, Mall RK. Attributing mortality from temperature extremes: A time series analysis in Varanasi, India. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 665:453-464. [PMID: 30772576 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.074] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2018] [Revised: 02/04/2019] [Accepted: 02/04/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Climate extremes are often associated with increased human mortality and such association varies considerably with space and time. We therefore, aimed to systematically investigate the effects of temperature extremes, daily means and diurnal temperature variations (DTV) on mortality in the city of Varanasi, India during 2009-2016. Time series data on daily mortality, air quality (SO2, NO2, O3 and PM10) and weather variables were obtained from the routinely collected secondary sources. A semiparametric quasi-Poisson regression model estimated the effects of temperature extremes on daily all-cause mortality adjusting nonlinear confounding effects of time trend, relative humidity and air pollution; stratified by seasons. An effect modification by age, gender and place of death as semi-economic indicator were also explored. Daily mean temperature was strongly associated with excess mortality, both during summer (5.61% with 95% CI: 4.69-6.53% per unit increase in mean temperature) and winter (1.53% with 95% CI: 0.88-2.18% per unit decrease in mean temperature). Daily mortality was found to be increased by 12.02% (with 95% CI: 4.21-19.84%) due to heat wave. The DTV has exhibited downward trend over the years and showed a negative association with all-cause mortality. Significant association of mortality and different metric of temperature extreme along with decreasing trend in DTV clearly indicate the potential impact of climate change on human health in the city of Varanasi. The finding may well be useful to prioritize the government policies to curb the factors that causes the climate change and for developing early warning system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nidhi Singh
- DST-Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India; Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
| | - Alaa Mhawish
- Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
| | - Santu Ghosh
- Department of Biostatistics, St Johns Medical College, Koramongala, Bangalore, India
| | - Tirthankar Banerjee
- DST-Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India; Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
| | - R K Mall
- DST-Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India; Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India.
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21
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Anderson GB, Barnes EA, Bell ML, Dominici F. The Future of Climate Epidemiology: Opportunities for Advancing Health Research in the Context of Climate Change. Am J Epidemiol 2019; 188:866-872. [PMID: 30877291 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwz034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2018] [Revised: 02/01/2019] [Accepted: 02/04/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
In the coming decades, climate change is expected to dramatically affect communities worldwide, altering the patterns of many ambient exposures and disasters, including extreme temperatures, heat waves, wildfires, droughts, and floods. These exposures, in turn, can affect risks for a variety of human diseases and health outcomes. Climate epidemiology plays an important role in informing policy related to climate change and its threats to public health. Climate epidemiology leverages deep, integrated collaborations between epidemiologists and climate scientists to understand the current and potential future impacts of climate-related exposures on human health. A variety of recent and ongoing developments in climate science are creating new avenues for epidemiologic contributions. Here, we discuss the contributions of climate epidemiology and describe some key current research directions, including research to better characterize uncertainty in climate health projections. We end by outlining 3 developing areas of climate science that are creating opportunities for high-impact epidemiologic advances in the near future: 1) climate attribution studies, 2) subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, and 3) decadal predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- G Brooke Anderson
- Department of Environmental & Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Elizabeth A Barnes
- Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Francesca Dominici
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts
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22
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Lee JY, Lee WS, Ebi KL, Kim H. Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:E1026. [PMID: 30901812 PMCID: PMC6466250 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16061026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2018] [Revised: 03/15/2019] [Accepted: 03/17/2019] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Projections of the magnitude and pattern of possible health risks from climate change should be based on multiple climate and development scenarios to describe the range of uncertainties, to inform effective and efficient policies. For a better understanding of climate change-related risks in seven metropolitan cities of South Korea, we estimated temperature-related summer (June to August) mortality until 2100 using projected changes in climate, population, and adaptation. In addition, we extracted the variations in the mortality estimates associated with uncertainties in climate, population, and adaptation scenarios using 25 climate models, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), three population scenarios (high, medium and low variants), and four adaptation scenarios (absolute threshold shift, slope reduction in the temperature-mortality relationship, a combination of slope reduction and threshold shift, and a sigmoid function based on the historical trend). Compared to the baseline period (1991⁻2015), temperature-attributable mortality in South Korea during summer in the 2090s is projected to increase 5.1 times for RCP 4.5 and 12.9 times for RCP 8.5 due to climate and population changes. Estimated future mortality varies by up to +44%/-55%, -80%, -60%, and +12%/-11% associated with the choice of climate models, adaptation, climate, and population scenarios, respectively, compared to the mortality estimated for the median of the climate models, no adaptation, RCP 8.5, and medium population variant. Health system choices about adaptation are the most important determinants of future mortality after climate projections. The range of possible future mortality underscores the importance of flexible, iterative risk management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jae Young Lee
- Institute of Health and Environment and Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, South Korea.
| | - Woo-Seop Lee
- Climate Services and Research Department, APEC Climate Center, Busan 48058, South Korea.
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USA.
| | - Ho Kim
- Institute of Health and Environment and Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, South Korea.
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López-Bueno JA, Díaz J, Linares C. Differences in the impact of heat waves according to urban and peri-urban factors in Madrid. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2019; 63:371-380. [PMID: 30694395 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-019-01670-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2018] [Revised: 01/02/2019] [Accepted: 01/02/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Aside from climatic factors, the impact of heat waves on mortality depends on the demographic and socio-economic structure of the population as well as variables relating to local housing. Hence, this study's main aim was to ascertain whether there might be a differential impact of heat waves on daily mortality by area of residence. The study is a time-series analysis (2000-2009) of daily mortality and minimum and maximum daily temperatures (°C) in five geographical areas of the Madrid region. The impact of such waves on heat-related mortality due to natural causes (ICD-10: A00- R99), circulatory causes (ICD-10: I00-I99) and respiratory causes (ICD-10: J00-J99) was obtained by calculating the relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR), using GLM models with the Poisson link and controlling for trend, seasonalities and the autoregressive nature of the series. Furthermore, we also evaluated other external variables, such as the percentage of the population aged over 65 years and the percentage of old housing. No heat-related mortality threshold temperature with statistical significance was detected in the northern and eastern areas. While the threshold temperatures in the central and southern areas were very similar and close to the 90th percentile, the threshold in the western area corresponded to the 97th percentile. Attributable mortality proved to be highest in the central area with 85 heat wave-related deaths per annum. External factors found to influence the impact of heat on mortality in Madrid were the size of the population aged over 65 years and the age of residential housing. Demographic structure and the percentage of old housing play a key role in modulating the impact of heat waves. This study concludes that the areas in which heat acts earliest are those having a higher degree of population ageing.
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Affiliation(s)
- J A López-Bueno
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Avda. Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - J Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Avda. Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029, Madrid, Spain.
- Escuela Nacional de Sanidad, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Avda. Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029, Madrid, Spain.
| | - C Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Avda. Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
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Liu T, Ren Z, Zhang Y, Feng B, Lin H, Xiao J, Zeng W, Li X, Li Z, Rutherford S, Xu Y, Lin S, Nasca PC, Du Y, Wang J, Huang C, Jia P, Ma W. Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16030376. [PMID: 30699991 PMCID: PMC6388188 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16030376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2018] [Revised: 01/23/2019] [Accepted: 01/24/2019] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tao Liu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Zhoupeng Ren
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
| | - Yonghui Zhang
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Baixiang Feng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Hualiang Lin
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
| | - Jianpeng Xiao
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Weilin Zeng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Xing Li
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Zhihao Li
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | | | - Yanjun Xu
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Shao Lin
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Pl, Rensselaer, NY 12148, USA.
| | - Philip C Nasca
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Pl, Rensselaer, NY 12148, USA.
| | - Yaodong Du
- Guangdong Provincial Climate Center, Guangzhou 510080, China.
| | - Jinfeng Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
| | - Cunrui Huang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
| | - Peng Jia
- Department of Earth Observation Science, Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, 7500 Enschede, The Netherlands.
- International Initiative on Spatial Lifecourse Epidemiology (ISLE), 7500 Enschede, The Netherlands.
| | - Wenjun Ma
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
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Kouis P, Kakkoura M, Ziogas K, Paschalidou AΚ, Papatheodorou SI. The effect of ambient air temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in Thessaloniki, Greece. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 647:1351-1358. [PMID: 30180342 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2018] [Revised: 08/06/2018] [Accepted: 08/07/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES There is a growing body of evidence linking ambient air temperature and adverse health effects, in the form of hospitalization or even increased mortality mainly due to respiratory and cardio/cerebro-vascular illnesses. In the present study, we examine the association between high ambient air temperature and cardiovascular as well as respiratory mortality for the population of the greater area of Thessaloniki, Greece, taking into account the role of particulate pollution as a potential confounder. METHODS A mixed Poisson regression model, using a quasi-likelihood function to account for potential over-dispersion in the outcome distribution given covariates, was combined with distributed lag non-linear models, to estimate the non-linear and lag patterns in the association between mortality and daily mean temperature from 1999 to 2012. RESULTS A direct heat effect was found, as the mortality risk increased sharply above the temperature threshold of 33 °C, suggesting a significant effect of high temperatures on mortality on the same and next day of the heat events (lags 0-1) which was retained for a week, whereas a harvesting effect was noticed for the following days. Cardiovascular and respiratory mortality risk increased by 4.4% (95% CI 2.7%-6.1%) and 5.9% (95% CI 1.8%-10.3%) respectively on the same and following day of a heat event, whereas the risk dropped steeply in the following days. Particulate matter did not confound the association between high temperature and mortality in this population. CONCLUSION There is a significant association between mortality and hot temperatures in Thessaloniki, Greece. Reduction in exposure to increased temperatures, as part of prevention measures and strategies, should be considered for vulnerable subpopulations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Panayiotis Kouis
- Medical School, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus; Cyprus International Institute for Environmental & Public Health, Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol, Cyprus.
| | | | - Konstantinos Ziogas
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, Greece.
| | - Anastasia Κ Paschalidou
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, Greece.
| | - Stefania I Papatheodorou
- Cyprus International Institute for Environmental & Public Health, Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol, Cyprus.
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Temporal Trends in Heat-Related Mortality: Implications for Future Projections. ATMOSPHERE 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos9100409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
High temperatures have large impacts on premature mortality risks across the world, and there is concern that warming temperatures associated with climate change, and in particular larger-than-expected increases in the proportion of days with extremely high temperatures, may lead to increasing mortality risks. Comparisons of heat-related mortality exposure-response functions across different cities show that the effects of heat on mortality risk vary by latitude, with more pronounced heat effects in more northerly climates. Evidence has also emerged in recent years of trends over time in heat-related mortality, suggesting that in many locations, the risk per unit increase in temperature has been declining. Here, I review the emerging literature on these trends, and draw conclusions for studies that seek to project future impacts of heat on mortality. I also make reference to the more general heat-mortality literature, including studies comparing effects across locations. I conclude that climate change projection studies will need to take into account trends over time (and possibly space) in the exposure response function for heat-related mortality. Several potential methods are discussed.
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Ho HC, Knudby A, Chi G, Aminipouri M, Yuk-FoLai D. Spatiotemporal analysis of regional socio-economic vulnerability change associated with heat risks in Canada. APPLIED GEOGRAPHY (SEVENOAKS, ENGLAND) 2018; 95:61-70. [PMID: 31031454 PMCID: PMC6482004 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.04.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Excess mortality can be caused by extreme hot weather events, which are increasing in severity and frequency in Canada due to climate change. Individual and social vulnerability factors influence the mortality risk associated with a given heat exposure. We constructed heat vulnerability indices using census data from 2006 and 2011 in Canada, developed a novel design to compare spatiotemporal changes of heat vulnerability, and identified locations that may be increasingly vulnerable to heat. The results suggest that 1) urban areas in Canada are particularly vulnerable to heat, 2) suburban areas and satellite cities around major metropolitan areas show the greatest increases in vulnerability, and 3) heat vulnerability changes are driven primarily by changes in the density of older ages and infants. Our approach is applicable to heat vulnerability analyses in other countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hung Chak Ho
- Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong
| | - Anders Knudby
- Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Guangqing Chi
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
- Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
- Social Science Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Mehdi Aminipouri
- Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
| | - Derrick Yuk-FoLai
- Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
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Luan G, Yin P, Wang L, Zhou M. The temperature-mortality relationship: an analysis from 31 Chinese provincial capital cities. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RESEARCH 2018; 28:192-201. [PMID: 29562755 DOI: 10.1080/09603123.2018.1453056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2017] [Accepted: 02/22/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
We aim to explore the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT) of different cities and regions, and that provides evidence for developing reasonable heat wave definition in China. The death data of 31 Chinese provincial capital cities from seven geographical regions during 2008-2013 was included in this study. In the first stage, a DLNM (Distributed Lag Non-linear Model) was used to estimate the association between mean temperature and mortality in a single city, then we pooled them with a multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the region-specific effects. The range of MMT was from 17.4 °C (Shijiazhuang) to 28.4 °C (Haikou), and the regional MMT increased as the original latitude decreased. Different cities and regions have their own specialized MMT due to geography and demographic characteristics. These findings indicate that the government deserves to adjust measures to local conditions to develop public health policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guijie Luan
- a Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Jinan , China
| | - Peng Yin
- b National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention , Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Beijing , China
| | - Lijun Wang
- b National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention , Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Beijing , China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- b National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention , Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Beijing , China
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29
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Błażejczyk A, Błażejczyk K, Baranowski J, Kuchcik M. Heat stress mortality and desired adaptation responses of healthcare system in Poland. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2018; 62:307-318. [PMID: 28864962 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-017-1423-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2016] [Revised: 05/09/2017] [Accepted: 08/07/2017] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Heat stress is one of the environmental factors influencing the health of individuals and the wider population. There is a large body of research to document significant increases in mortality and morbidity during heat waves all over the world. This paper presents key results of research dealing with heat-related mortality (HRM) in various cities in Poland which cover about 25% of the country's population. Daily mortality and weather data reports for the years 1991-2000 were used. The intensity of heat stress was assessed by the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). The research considers also the projections of future bioclimate to the end of twenty-first century. Brain storming discussions were applied to find necessary adaptation strategies of healthcare system (HCS) in Poland, to minimise negative effects of heat stress. In general, in days with strong and very strong heat stress, ones must expect increase in mortality (in relation to no thermal stress days) of 12 and 47%, respectively. Because of projected rise in global temperature and heat stress frequency, we must expect significant increase in HRM to the end of twenty-first century of even 165% in comparison to present days. The results of research show necessity of urgent implementation of adaptation strategies to heat in HCS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Błażejczyk
- Bioklimatologia, Laboratory of Bioclimatology and Environmental Ergonomics, Łukowska 17/55, 04-133, Warsaw, Poland.
| | - Krzysztof Błażejczyk
- Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences, Twarda 51/55, 00-818, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Jarosław Baranowski
- Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences, Twarda 51/55, 00-818, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Magdalena Kuchcik
- Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences, Twarda 51/55, 00-818, Warsaw, Poland
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30
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Anderson GB, Oleson KW, Jones B, Peng RD. Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities. CLIMATIC CHANGE 2018; 146:455-470. [PMID: 29628541 PMCID: PMC5881935 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2015] [Accepted: 08/17/2016] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061-2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario- going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.
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Affiliation(s)
- G. Brooke Anderson
- Department of Environmental & Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Lake Street, Fort Collins, CO 80521, USA
| | | | - Bryan Jones
- CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, New York, NY, USA
| | - Roger D. Peng
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
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31
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Wang Y, Nordio F, Nairn J, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD. Accounting for adaptation and intensity in projecting heat wave-related mortality. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2018; 161:464-471. [PMID: 29220799 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2017.11.049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2017] [Revised: 11/06/2017] [Accepted: 11/28/2017] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND How adaptation and intensity of heat waves affect heat wave-related mortality is unclear, making health projections difficult. METHODS We estimated the effect of heat waves, the effect of the intensity of heat waves, and adaptation on mortality in 209 U.S. cities with 168 million people during 1962-2006. We improved the standard time-series models by incorporating the intensity of heat waves using excess heat factor (EHF) and estimating adaptation empirically using interactions with yearly mean summer temperature (MST). We combined the epidemiological estimates for heat wave, intensity, and adaptation with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset to project heat wave-related mortality by 2050. RESULTS The effect of heat waves increased with its intensity. Adaptation to heat waves occurred, which was shown by the decreasing effect of heat waves with MST. However, adaptation was lessened as MST increased. Ignoring adaptation in projections would result in a substantial overestimate of the projected heat wave-related mortality (by 277-747% in 2050). Incorporating the empirically estimated adaptation into projections would result in little change in the projected heat wave-related mortality between 2006 and 2050. This differs regionally, however, with increasing mortality over time for cities in the southern and western U.S. but decreasing mortality over time for the north. CONCLUSIONS Accounting for adaptation is important to reduce bias in the projections of heat wave-related mortality. The finding that the southern and western U.S. are the areas that face increasing heat-related deaths is novel, and indicates that more regional adaptation strategies are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yan Wang
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Francesco Nordio
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - John Nairn
- Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia; University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Joel D Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
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32
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Anderson GB, Oleson KW, Jones B, Peng RD. Classifying heatwaves: Developing health-based models to predict high-mortality versus moderate United States heatwaves. CLIMATIC CHANGE 2018; 146:439-453. [PMID: 29628540 PMCID: PMC5881918 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1776-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2015] [Accepted: 08/17/2016] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Heatwaves are divided between moderate, more common heatwaves and rare "high-mortality" heatwaves that have extremely large health effects per day, which we define as heatwaves with a 20% or higher increase in mortality risk. Better projections of the expected frequency of and exposure to these separate types of heatwaves could help communities optimize heat mitigation and response plans and gauge the potential benefits of limiting climate change. Whether a heatwave is high-mortality or moderate could depend on multiple heatwave characteristics, including intensity, length, and timing. We created heatwave classification models using a heatwave training dataset created using recent (1987-2005) health and weather data from 82 large US urban communities. We built twenty potential classification models and used Monte Carlo cross-validations to evaluate these models. We ultimately identified several models that can adequately classify high-mortality heatwaves. These models can be used to project future trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of a changing future (e.g., climate change, population change). Further, these models are novel in the way they allow exploration of different scenarios of adaptation to heat, as they include, as predictive variables, heatwave characteristics that are measured relative to a community's temperature distribution, allowing different adaptation scenarios to be explored by selecting alternative community temperature distributions. The three selected models have been placed on GitHub for use by other researchers, and we use them in a companion paper to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different climate, population, and adaptation scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- G Brooke Anderson
- Colorado State University, Department of Environmental & Radiological Health Sciences, Lake Street, Fort Collins, CO 80521
| | | | - Bryan Jones
- CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, New York, NY
| | - Roger D Peng
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
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33
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Arbuthnott KG, Hajat S. The health effects of hotter summers and heat waves in the population of the United Kingdom: a review of the evidence. Environ Health 2017; 16:119. [PMID: 29219088 PMCID: PMC5773858 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-017-0322-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
It is widely acknowledged that the climate is warming globally and within the UK. In this paper, studies which assess the direct impact of current increased temperatures and heat-waves on health and those which project future health impacts of heat under different climate change scenarios in the UK are reviewed.This review finds that all UK studies demonstrate an increase in heat-related mortality occurring at temperatures above threshold values, with respiratory deaths being more sensitive to heat than deaths from cardiovascular disease (although the burden from cardiovascular deaths is greater in absolute terms). The relationship between heat and other health outcomes such as hospital admissions, myocardial infarctions and birth outcomes is less consistent. We highlight the main populations who are vulnerable to heat. Within the UK, these are older populations, those with certain co-morbidities and those living in Greater London, the South East and Eastern regions.In all assessments of heat-related impacts using different climate change scenarios, deaths are expected to increase due to hotter temperatures, with some studies demonstrating that an increase in the elderly population will also amplify burdens. However, key gaps in knowledge are found in relation to how urbanisation and population adaptation to heat will affect health impacts, and in relation to current and future strategies for effective, sustainable and equitable adaptation to heat. These and other key gaps in knowledge, both in terms of research needs and knowledge required to make sound public- health policy, are discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine G Arbuthnott
- Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
- Chemicals and Environmental Effects Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK.
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK
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Hondula DM, Balling RC, Andrade R, Scott Krayenhoff E, Middel A, Urban A, Georgescu M, Sailor DJ. Biometeorology for cities. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2017; 61:59-69. [PMID: 28752239 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-017-1412-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2017] [Revised: 07/10/2017] [Accepted: 07/12/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Improvements in global sustainability, health, and equity will largely be determined by the extent to which cities are able to become more efficient, hospitable, and productive places. The development and evolution of urban areas has a significant impact on local and regional weather and climate, which subsequently affect people and other organisms that live in and near cities. Biometeorologists, researchers who study the impact of weather and climate on living creatures, are well positioned to help evaluate and anticipate the consequences of urbanization on the biosphere. Motivated by the 60th anniversary of the International Society of Biometeorology, we reviewed articles published in the Society's International Journal of Biometeorology over the period 1974-2017 to understand if and how biometeorologists have directed attention to urban areas. We found that interest in urban areas has rapidly accelerated; urban-oriented articles accounted for more than 20% of all articles published in the journal in the most recent decade. Urban-focused articles in the journal span five themes: measuring urban climate, theoretical foundations and models, human thermal comfort, human morbidity and mortality, and ecosystem impacts. Within these themes, articles published in the journal represent a sizeable share of the total academic literature. More explicit attention from urban biometeorologists publishing in the journal to low- and middle-income countries, indoor environments, animals, and the impacts of climate change on human health would help ensure that the distinctive perspectives of biometeorology reach the places, people, and processes that are the foci of global sustainability, health, and equity goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- David M Hondula
- Urban Climate Research Center and School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.
| | - Robert C Balling
- Urban Climate Research Center and School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - Riley Andrade
- Urban Climate Research Center and School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - E Scott Krayenhoff
- Urban Climate Research Center and School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - Ariane Middel
- Urban Climate Research Center and School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
- Department of Geography and Urban Studies, Temple University, Philadelphia, USA
| | - Aleš Urban
- Urban Climate Research Center and School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 141 31, Prague 4, Czech Republic
| | - Matei Georgescu
- Urban Climate Research Center and School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - David J Sailor
- Urban Climate Research Center and School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
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35
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Gosling SN, Hondula DM, Bunker A, Ibarreta D, Liu J, Zhang X, Sauerborn R. Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2017; 125:087008. [PMID: 28885979 PMCID: PMC5783656 DOI: 10.1289/ehp634] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2016] [Revised: 09/15/2016] [Accepted: 10/24/2016] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. OBJECTIVES This study had three aims: a) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. METHODS We estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. RESULTS The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon N Gosling
- School of Geography, University of Nottingham , Nottingham, United Kingdom
| | - David M Hondula
- School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University , Tempe, Arizona, USA
| | - Aditi Bunker
- Network Aging Research, University of Heidelberg , Heidelberg, Germany
- Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg , Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Dolores Ibarreta
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Seville, Spain
| | - Junguo Liu
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South University of Science and Technology of China, Shenzhen, China
| | - Xinxin Zhang
- School of Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University , Beijing, China
| | - Rainer Sauerborn
- Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg , Heidelberg, Germany
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Goldie J, Alexander L, Lewis SC, Sherwood S. Comparative evaluation of human heat stress indices on selected hospital admissions in Sydney, Australia. Aust N Z J Public Health 2017; 41:381-387. [DOI: 10.1111/1753-6405.12692] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2016] [Revised: 01/01/2017] [Accepted: 04/01/2017] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- James Goldie
- Climate Change Research Centre; University of New South Wales
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; University of New South Wales
| | - Lisa Alexander
- Climate Change Research Centre; University of New South Wales
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; University of New South Wales
| | - Sophie C. Lewis
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; University of New South Wales
- Fenner School of Environment & Society; Australian National University, Australian Capital Territory
| | - Steven Sherwood
- Climate Change Research Centre; University of New South Wales
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; University of New South Wales
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Sanderson M, Arbuthnott K, Kovats S, Hajat S, Falloon P. The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0180369. [PMID: 28686743 PMCID: PMC5501532 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0180369] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2017] [Accepted: 06/14/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. METHODS The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. RESULTS A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. CONCLUSIONS Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Katherine Arbuthnott
- Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot, United Kingdom
| | - Sari Kovats
- Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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Garcia F, Shendell DG, Madrigano J. Relationship among environmental quality variables, housing variables, and residential needs: a secondary analysis of the relationship among indoor, outdoor, and personal air (RIOPA) concentrations database. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2017; 61:513-525. [PMID: 27572236 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-016-1229-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2015] [Revised: 03/11/2016] [Accepted: 08/01/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Retrospective descriptive secondary analyses of data from relationships of indoor, outdoor, and personal air (RIOPA) study homes (in Houston, Texas; Los Angeles County, California; and, Elizabeth, New Jersey May 1999-February 2001) were conducted. Data included air exchange rates, associations between indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity, and calculated apparent temperature and humidex. Analyses examined if study homes provided optimum thermal comfort for residents during both heating and cooling seasons when compared to current American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) Standards 62/62.1 and 55. Results suggested outdoor temperature, humidex, and apparent temperature during the cooling season potentially served as indicators of indoor personal exposure to parameters of thermal comfort. Outdoor temperatures, humidex, and apparent temperature during the cooling season had statistically significant predictive abilities in predicting indoor temperature. During the heating season, only humidex in Texas and combined data across study states were statistically significant, but with weaker to moderate predicative ability. The high degree of correlation between outdoor and indoor environmental variables provided support for the validity of epidemiologic studies of weather relying on temporal comparisons. Results indicated most RIOPA study residents experienced thermal comfort; however, many values indicated how several residents may have experienced some discomfort depending on clothing and indoor activities. With climate change, increases in temperature are expected, with more days of extreme heat and humidity and, potentially harsher, longer winters. Homes being built or modernized should be created with the appropriate guidelines to provide comfort for residents daily and in extreme weather events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fausto Garcia
- Center for School and Community-Based Research and Education (CSCBRE), Rutgers School of Public Health (SPH), 335 George Street, Suite 2200, New Brunswick, NJ, 08903-2688, USA
- Teaneck (NJ) Health Department, Teaneck, NJ, USA
| | - Derek G Shendell
- Center for School and Community-Based Research and Education (CSCBRE), Rutgers School of Public Health (SPH), 335 George Street, Suite 2200, New Brunswick, NJ, 08903-2688, USA.
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health (ENOH), SPH, 3rd Fl. SPH Bldg, Piscataway, NJ, 08854, USA.
- Environmental and Occupational Health Science Institute (EOHSI), Exposure Measurement and Assessment Division, Rutgers University, 170 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ, 08854, USA.
- Department of Environmental and Occupational HealthRutgers School of Public Health, 683 Hoes Lane West, 3rd Floor, Piscataway, NJ, 08854, USA.
| | - Jaime Madrigano
- Center for School and Community-Based Research and Education (CSCBRE), Rutgers School of Public Health (SPH), 335 George Street, Suite 2200, New Brunswick, NJ, 08903-2688, USA
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health (ENOH), SPH, 3rd Fl. SPH Bldg, Piscataway, NJ, 08854, USA
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Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2017; 125:47-55. [PMID: 27337737 PMCID: PMC5226693 DOI: 10.1289/ehp166] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2015] [Revised: 01/16/2016] [Accepted: 05/13/2016] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. OBJECTIVES The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. METHODS We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). RESULTS The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. CONCLUSIONS These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisaveta P. Petkova
- National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
- Address correspondence to E.P. Petkova, National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Earth Institute, Columbia University, 215 W. 125th St., New York, NY 10027 USA. Telephone: (646) 845-2325. E-mail:
| | - Jan K. Vink
- Cornell Program on Applied Demographics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Radley M. Horton
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, and
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Daniel A. Bader
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Joe D. Francis
- Cornell Program on Applied Demographics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Patrick L. Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
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Singer M, Hasemann J, Raynor A. "I Feel Suffocated:" Understandings of Climate Change in an Inner City Heat Island. Med Anthropol 2016; 35:453-463. [PMID: 27348245 DOI: 10.1080/01459740.2016.1204543] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
Abstract
Global climate change is contributing to a range of adverse environmental and weather shifts, including more intense and more frequent heatwaves and an intensification of the urban heat island effect. These changes are known to produce a set of significant and differentially distributed health problems, with a particularly high burden among poor and marginalized populations. In this article, we report findings from a qualitative study of community knowledge, attitudes, health and other concerns, and behavioral responses regarding mounting urban temperatures and related environmental health issues among Latinos living in the city of Hartford, CT in northeast United States. Findings suggest the need for enhanced participation in knowledge dissemination and preparedness planning based on the coproduction of knowledge about climate change and community responses to it. The special role of anthropology in such efforts is highlighted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Merrill Singer
- a Department of Anthropology , University of Connecticut , Storrs , Connecticut , USA
| | - Jose Hasemann
- a Department of Anthropology , University of Connecticut , Storrs , Connecticut , USA
| | - Abigail Raynor
- b Department of Molecular and Cell Biology , University of Connecticut , Storrs , Connecticut , USA
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Wang Y, Shi L, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD. Estimating and projecting the effect of cold waves on mortality in 209 US cities. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2016; 94:141-149. [PMID: 27248660 PMCID: PMC4980291 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.05.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2016] [Revised: 05/07/2016] [Accepted: 05/08/2016] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
The frequency, duration, and intensity of cold waves are expected to decrease in the near future under the changing climate. However, there is a lack of understanding on future mortality related to cold waves. The present study conducted a large-scale national projection to estimate future mortality attributable to cold waves during 1960-2050 in 209 US cities. Cold waves were defined as two, three, or at least four consecutive days with daily temperature lower than the 5th percentile of temperatures in each city. The lingering period of a cold wave was defined as the non-cold wave days within seven days following that cold wave period. First, with 168million residents in 209 US cities during 1962-2006, we fitted over-dispersed Poisson regressions to estimate the immediate and lingering effects of cold waves on mortality and tested if the associations were modified by the duration of cold waves, the intensity of cold waves, and mean winter temperature (MWT). Then we projected future mortality related to cold waves using 20 downscaled climate models. Here we show that the cold waves (both immediate and lingering) were associated with an increased but small risk of mortality. The associations varied substantially across climate regions. The risk increased with the duration and intensity of cold waves but decreased with MWT. The projected mortality related to cold waves would decrease from 1960 to 2050. Such a decrease, however, is small and may not be able to offset the potential increase in heat-related deaths if the adaptation to heat is not adequate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yan Wang
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Joel D Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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42
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Lee JY, Kim H. Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2016; 94:489-494. [PMID: 27316627 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.06.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2016] [Revised: 05/15/2016] [Accepted: 06/07/2016] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the effects of global climate change from both environmental and human health perspectives has gained great importance. Particularly, studies on the direct effect of temperature increase on future mortality have been conducted. However, few of those studies considered population changes, and although the world population is rapidly aging, no previous study considered the effect of society aging. Here we present a projection of future temperature-related mortality due to both climate and demographic changes in seven major cities of South Korea, a fast aging country, until 2100; we used the HadGEM3-RA model under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the United Nations world population prospects under three fertility scenarios (high, medium, and low). The results showed markedly increased mortality in the elderly group, significantly increasing the overall future mortality. In 2090s, South Korea could experience a four- to six-time increase in temperature-related mortality compared to that during 1992-2010 under four different RCP scenarios and three different fertility variants, while the mortality is estimated to increase only by 0.5 to 1.5 times assuming no population aging. Therefore, not considering population aging may significantly underestimate temperature risks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jae Young Lee
- Institute of Health and Environment, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea.
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Asian Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea.
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43
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Conlon KC, Kintziger KW, Jagger M, Stefanova L, Uejio CK, Konrad C. Working with Climate Projections to Estimate Disease Burden: Perspectives from Public Health. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2016; 13:ijerph13080804. [PMID: 27517942 PMCID: PMC4997490 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph13080804] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2016] [Revised: 08/02/2016] [Accepted: 08/03/2016] [Indexed: 12/05/2022]
Abstract
There is interest among agencies and public health practitioners in the United States (USA) to estimate the future burden of climate-related health outcomes. Calculating disease burden projections can be especially daunting, given the complexities of climate modeling and the multiple pathways by which climate influences public health. Interdisciplinary coordination between public health practitioners and climate scientists is necessary for scientifically derived estimates. We describe a unique partnership of state and regional climate scientists and public health practitioners assembled by the Florida Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) program. We provide a background on climate modeling and projections that has been developed specifically for public health practitioners, describe methodologies for combining climate and health data to project disease burden, and demonstrate three examples of this process used in Florida.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathryn C Conlon
- Climate and Health Program, Division of Environmental Hazards and Health Effects, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30341, USA.
| | | | | | - Lydia Stefanova
- Center for Ocean Atmosphere Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2741, USA.
| | - Christopher K Uejio
- Climate and Health Program, Division of Environmental Hazards and Health Effects, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30341, USA.
- Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2190, USA.
| | - Charles Konrad
- Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220, USA.
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Li T, Horton RM, Bader DA, Zhou M, Liang X, Ban J, Sun Q, Kinney PL. Aging Will Amplify the Heat-related Mortality Risk under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China. Sci Rep 2016; 6:28161. [PMID: 27320724 PMCID: PMC4913346 DOI: 10.1038/srep28161] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2015] [Accepted: 05/31/2016] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heat-related mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tiantian Li
- Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Radley M. Horton
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA
| | - Daniel A. Bader
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Xudong Liang
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing, China
| | - Jie Ban
- Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Qinghua Sun
- Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
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Carmona R, Díaz J, Mirón IJ, Ortiz C, Luna MY, Linares C. Mortality attributable to extreme temperatures in Spain: A comparative analysis by city. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2016; 91:22-8. [PMID: 26900891 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.02.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2016] [Revised: 02/10/2016] [Accepted: 02/12/2016] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Low Temperature Days (LTD) have attracted far less attention than that of High Temperature Days (HTD), though its impact on mortality is at least comparable. This lower degree of attention may perhaps be due to the fact that its influence on mortality is less pronounced and longer-term, and that there are other concomitant infectious winters factors. In a climate-change scenario, the studies undertaken to date report differing results. The aim of this study was to analyse mortality attributable to both thermal extremes in Spain's 52 provinces across the period 2000-2009, and estimate the related economic cost to show the benefit or "profitability" of implementing prevention plans against LTD. METHODS Previous studies enabled us: to obtain the maximum daily temperature above which HTD occurred and the minimum daily temperature below which LTD occurred in the 52 provincial capitals analysed across the same study period; and to calculate the relative and attributable risks (%) associated with daily mortality in each capital. These measures of association were then used to make different calculations to obtain the daily mean mortality attributable to both thermal extremes. To this end, we obtained a summary of the number of degrees whereby the temperature exceeded (excess °C) or fell short (deficit °C) of the threshold temperature for each capital, and calculated the respective number of extreme temperatures days. The economic estimates rated the prevention plans as being 68% effective. RESULTS Over the period considered, the number of HTD (4373) was higher than the number of LTD (3006) for Spain as a whole. Notwithstanding this, in every provincial capital the mean daily mortality attributable to heat was lower (3deaths/day) than that attributable to cold (3.48deaths/day). In terms of the economic impact of the activation of prevention plans against LTD, these could be assumed to avoid 2.37 deaths on each LTD, which translated as a saving of €0.29M. Similarly, in the case of heat, 2.04 deaths could be assumed to be avoided each day on which the prevention plan against HTD was activated, amounting to a saving of €0.25M. While the economic cost of cold-related mortality across the ten-year period 2000-2009 was €871.7M, that attributable to heat could be put at €1093.2M. CONCLUSION The effect of extreme temperatures on daily mortality was similar across the study period for Spain overall. The lower number of days with LTD meant, however, that daily cold-related mortality was higher than daily heat-related mortality, thereby making prevention plans against LTD more "profitable" prevention plans against HTD in terms of avoidable mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Carmona
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Avda. Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - J Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Avda. Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain.
| | - I J Mirón
- Torrijos Public Health District, Castile-La Mancha Regional Health & Social Affairs Authority (Consejería de Sanidad y Asuntos Sociales de Castilla-La Mancha), Torrijos, Toledo, Spain
| | - C Ortiz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Avda. Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - M Y Luna
- State Meteorological Agency, (AEMET), Madrid, Spain
| | - C Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Avda. Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
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Shi L, Liu P, Kloog I, Lee M, Kosheleva A, Schwartz J. Estimating daily air temperature across the Southeastern United States using high-resolution satellite data: A statistical modeling study. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2016; 146:51-8. [PMID: 26717080 PMCID: PMC4761507 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2015.12.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2015] [Revised: 12/02/2015] [Accepted: 12/04/2015] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Accurate estimates of spatio-temporal resolved near-surface air temperature (Ta) are crucial for environmental epidemiological studies. However, values of Ta are conventionally obtained from weather stations, which have limited spatial coverage. Satellite surface temperature (Ts) measurements offer the possibility of local exposure estimates across large domains. The Southeastern United States has different climatic conditions, more small water bodies and wetlands, and greater humidity in contrast to other regions, which add to the challenge of modeling air temperature. In this study, we incorporated satellite Ts to estimate high resolution (1km×1km) daily Ta across the southeastern USA for 2000-2014. We calibrated Ts-Ta measurements using mixed linear models, land use, and separate slopes for each day. A high out-of-sample cross-validated R(2) of 0.952 indicated excellent model performance. When satellite Ts were unavailable, linear regression on nearby monitors and spatio-temporal smoothing was used to estimate Ta. The daily Ta estimations were compared to the NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) model. A good agreement with an R(2) of 0.969 and a mean squared prediction error (RMSPE) of 1.376°C was achieved. Our results demonstrate that Ta can be reliably predicted using this Ts-based prediction model, even in a large geographical area with topography and weather patterns varying considerably.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liuhua Shi
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
| | - Pengfei Liu
- John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
| | - Itai Kloog
- Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, P.O.B. 653, Beer Sheva, Israel
| | - Mihye Lee
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Anna Kosheleva
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA
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Arbuthnott K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, Vardoulakis S. Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change. Environ Health 2016; 15 Suppl 1:33. [PMID: 26961541 PMCID: PMC4895245 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-016-0102-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 93] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the context of a warming climate and increasing urbanisation (with the associated urban heat island effect), interest in understanding temperature related health effects is growing. Previous reviews have examined how the temperature-mortality relationship varies by geographical location. There have been no reviews examining the empirical evidence for changes in population susceptibility to the effects of heat and/or cold over time. The objective of this paper is to review studies which have specifically examined variations in temperature related mortality risks over the 20(th) and 21(st) centuries and determine whether population adaptation to heat and/or cold has occurred. METHODS We searched five electronic databases combining search terms for three main concepts: temperature, health outcomes and changes in vulnerability or adaptation. Studies included were those which quantified the risk of heat related mortality with changing ambient temperature in a specific location over time, or those which compared mortality outcomes between two different extreme temperature events (heatwaves) in one location. RESULTS The electronic searches returned 9183 titles and abstracts, of which eleven studies examining the effects of ambient temperature over time were included and six studies comparing the effect of different heatwaves at discrete time points were included. Of the eleven papers that quantified the risk of, or absolute heat related mortality over time, ten found a decrease in susceptibility over time of which five found the decrease to be significant. The magnitude of the decrease varied by location. Only two studies attempted to quantitatively attribute changes in susceptibility to specific adaptive measures and found no significant association between the risk of heat related mortality and air conditioning prevalence within or between cities over time. Four of the six papers examining effects of heatwaves found a decrease in expected mortality in later years. Five studies examined the risk of cold. In contrast to the changes in heat related mortality observed, only one found a significant decrease in cold related mortality in later time periods. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence that across a number of different settings, population susceptibility to heat and heatwaves has been decreasing. These changes in heat related susceptibility have important implications for health impact assessments of future heat related risk. A similar decrease in cold related mortality was not shown. Adaptation to heat has implications for future planning, particularly in urban areas, with anticipated increases in temperature due to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine Arbuthnott
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London,, WC1H 9SH, UK.
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot, OX11 0RQ, UK.
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London,, WC1H 9SH, UK.
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London,, WC1H 9SH, UK.
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot, OX11 0RQ, UK.
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London,, WC1H 9SH, UK.
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot, OX11 0RQ, UK.
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48
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Urban A, Burkart K, Kyselý J, Schuster C, Plavcová E, Hanzlíková H, Štěpánek P, Lakes T. Spatial Patterns of Heat-Related Cardiovascular Mortality in the Czech Republic. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2016; 13:ijerph13030284. [PMID: 26959044 PMCID: PMC4808947 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph13030284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2015] [Revised: 01/31/2016] [Accepted: 02/23/2016] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Abstract
The study examines spatial patterns of effects of high temperature extremes on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic at a district level during 1994–2009. Daily baseline mortality for each district was determined using a single location-stratified generalized additive model. Mean relative deviations of mortality from the baseline were calculated on days exceeding the 90th percentile of mean daily temperature in summer, and they were correlated with selected demographic, socioeconomic, and physical-environmental variables for the districts. Groups of districts with similar characteristics were identified according to socioeconomic status and urbanization level in order to provide a more general picture than possible on the district level. We evaluated lagged patterns of excess mortality after hot spell occurrences in: (i) urban areas vs. predominantly rural areas; and (ii) regions with different overall socioeconomic level. Our findings suggest that climatic conditions, altitude, and urbanization generally affect the spatial distribution of districts with the highest excess cardiovascular mortality, while socioeconomic status did not show a significant effect in the analysis across the Czech Republic as a whole. Only within deprived populations, socioeconomic status played a relevant role as well. After taking into account lagged effects of temperature on excess mortality, we found that the effect of hot spells was significant in highly urbanized regions, while most excess deaths in rural districts may be attributed to harvesting effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
- Faculty of Science, Charles University, Albertov 6, 12843 Prague 2, Czech Republic.
| | - Katrin Burkart
- Department of Environmental Health Science, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 W 168th Street, New York, NY 10032, USA.
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 16521 Prague 6, Czech Republic.
- Global Change Research Centre, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 986, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic.
| | - Christian Schuster
- Department of Geography, Geoinformation Science Lab, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany.
| | - Eva Plavcová
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
| | - Hana Hanzlíková
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
- Institute of Geophysics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
| | - Petr Štěpánek
- Global Change Research Centre, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 986, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic.
- Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Regional Office Brno, Kroftova 2578, 61667 Brno, Czech Republic.
| | - Tobia Lakes
- Department of Geography, Geoinformation Science Lab, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany.
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49
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Zhao M, Kuklane K, Lundgren K, Gao C, Wang F. A ventilation cooling shirt worn during office work in a hot climate: cool or not? INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND ERGONOMICS 2016; 21:457-63. [PMID: 26693998 DOI: 10.1080/10803548.2015.1087730] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
Abstract
The aim of the study was to identify whether a ventilation cooling shirt was effective in reducing heat strain in a hot climate. Eight female volunteers were exposed to heat (38 °C, 45% relative humidity) for 2 h with simulated office work. In the first hour they were in normal summer clothes (total thermal insulation 0.8 clo); in the second hour a ventilation cooling shirt was worn on top. After the shirt was introduced for 1 h, the skin temperatures at the scapula and the chest were significantly reduced (p < 0.05). The mean skin and core temperatures were not reduced. The subjects felt cooler and more comfortable by wearing the shirt, but the cooling effect was most conspicuous only during the initial 10 min. The cooling efficiency of the ventilation shirt was not very effective under the low physical activity in this hot climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mengmeng Zhao
- a Shanghai University of Engineering Science , China
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50
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Díaz J, Carmona R, Mirón IJ, Ortiz C, León I, Linares C. Geographical variation in relative risks associated with heat: Update of Spain's Heat Wave Prevention Plan. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2015; 85:273-83. [PMID: 26433629 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2015] [Revised: 09/17/2015] [Accepted: 09/21/2015] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
A decade after the implementation of prevention plans designed to minimise the impact of high temperatures on health, some countries have decided to update these plans in order to improve the weakness detected in these ten years of operation. In the case of Spain, this update has fundamentally consisted of changing the so-called "threshold" or "trigger" temperatures used to activate the plan, by switching from temperature values based on climatological criteria to others obtained by epidemiological studies conducted on a provincial scale. This study reports the results of these "trigger" temperatures for each of Spain's 52 provincial capitals, as well as the impact of heat on mortality by reference to the relative risks (RRs) and attributable risks (ARs) calculated for natural as well as circulatory and respiratory causes. The results obtained for threshold temperatures and RRs show a more uniform behaviour pattern than those obtained using temperature values based on climatological criteria; plus a clear decrease in RRs of heat-associated mortality due to the three causes considered, at both a provincial and regional level as well as for Spain as a whole. The updating of prevention plans is regarded as crucial for optimising the operation of these plans in terms of reducing the effect of high temperatures on population health.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain.
| | - R Carmona
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - I J Mirón
- Torrijos Public Health District, Castile-La Mancha Regional Health & Social Affairs Authority (Consejería de Sanidad y Asuntos Sociales de Castilla-La Mancha), Torrijos (Toledo), Spain
| | - C Ortiz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - I León
- National Center of Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - C Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
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