Effects of strict containment policies on COVID-19 pandemic crisis: lessons to cope with next pandemic impacts

The Motivation for COVID-19 Vaccination and Preventive Behavior

COVID-19, a viral infection that emerged in late 2019, induces a severe acute respiratory syndrome marked by significant clinical symptoms, and the potential for progressive respiratory failure and death. People facing the threat of COVID-19 not only feared being infected, but were also worried about the side-effects of vaccination. This conflict affected their epidemic prevention behavior. To understand this issue, the present study explored whether infection anxiety affected the psychological avoidance or approach to getting vaccinated and the intention to take epidemic prevention measures. The study implemented a cross-sectional, web-based survey. We created questionnaires using Surveycake, an online e-form questionnaire platform. We used the snowball sampling method via a social media app to recruit participants. If individuals were willing to participate in the research, we emailed the e-form questionnaire link to them to collect data. After questionnaire collection, 288 questionnaires were returned, and 277 valid questionnaires were obtained for structural equation modeling analysis. According to the statistical results, it was found that infection anxiety was positively related to avoidance-avoidance conflict, and the power of infection anxiety on avoidance conflict was 23.0%. Infection anxiety was negatively related to approach-approach conflict regarding vaccination, and the power of infection anxiety on approach-approach conflict was 22.0%. Approach-approach conflict regarding vaccination was negatively related to prevention behavior, while avoidance-avoidance conflict regarding vaccination was positively related to prevention behavior. The two conflicts explained 12.5% of the total variance in prevention behavior. The study results highlight the long-term importance of achieving vaccine goals in order to prepare for future health emergencies similar to the recent COVID-19 pandemic.

Analyzing factors of daily travel distances in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic

The global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is widely recognized as a significant concern, with human flow playing a crucial role in its propagation. Consequently, recent research has focused on identifying and analyzing factors that can effectively regulate human flow. However, among the multiple factors that are expected to have an effect, few studies have investigated those that are particularly associated with human flow during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, few studies have investigated how regional characteristics and the number of vaccinations for these factors affect human flow. Furthermore, increasing the number of verified cases in countries and regions with insufficient reports is important to generalize conclusions. Therefore, in this study, a group-level analysis was conducted for Narashino City, Chiba Prefecture, Japan, using a human flow prediction model based on machine learning. High-importance groups were subdivided by regional characteristics and the number of vaccinations, and visual and correlation analyses were conducted at the factor level. The findings indicated that tree-based models, especially LightGBM, performed better in terms of prediction. In addition, the cumulative number of vaccinated individuals and the number of newly infected individuals are likely explanatory factors for changes in human flow. The analyses suggested a tendency to move with respect to the number of newly infected individuals in Japan or Tokyo, rather than the number of new infections in the area where they lived when vaccination had not started. With the implementation of vaccination, attention to the number of newly infected individuals in their residential areas may increase. However, after the spread of vaccination, the perception of infection risk may decrease. These findings can contribute to the proposal of new measures for efficiently controlling human flows and determining when to mitigate or reinforce specific measures.

Geospatial Point-of-Care Testing Strategies for COVID-19 Resilience in Resource-Poor Settings: Rural Cambodia Field Study

BACKGROUND

Point-of-care testing (POCT) generates intrinsically fast, inherently spatial, and immediately actionable results. Lessons learned in rural Cambodia and California create a framework for planning and mobilizing POCT with telehealth interventions. Timely diagnosis can help communities assess the spread of highly infectious diseases, mitigate outbreaks, and manage risks.

OBJECTIVE

The aims of this study were to identify the need for POCT in Cambodian border provinces during peak COVID-19 outbreaks and to quantify geospatial gaps in access to diagnostics during community lockdowns.

METHODS

Data sources comprised focus groups, interactive learners, webinar participants, online contacts, academic experts, public health experts, and officials who determined diagnostic needs and priorities in rural Cambodia during peak COVID-19 outbreaks. We analyzed geographic distances and transit times to testing in border provinces and assessed a high-risk province, Banteay Meanchey, where people crossed borders daily leading to disease spread. We strategized access to rapid antigen testing and molecular diagnostics in the aforementioned province and applied mobile-testing experience among the impacted population.

RESULTS

COVID-19 outbreaks were difficult to manage in rural and isolated areas where diagnostics were insufficient to meet needs. The median transit time from border provinces (n=17) to testing sites was 73 (range 1-494) minutes, and in the high-risk Banteay Meanchey Province (n=9 districts), this transit time was 90 (range 10-150) minutes. Within border provinces, maximum versus minimum distances and access times for testing differed significantly (P<.001). Pareto plots revealed geospatial gaps in access to testing for people who are not centrally located. At the time of epidemic peaks in Southeast Asia, mathematical analyses showed that only one available rapid antigen test met the World Health Organization requirement of sensitivity >80%. We observed that in rural Solano and Yolo counties, California, vending machines and public libraries dispensing free COVID-19 test kits 24-7 improved public access to diagnostics. Mobile-testing vans equipped with COVID-19 antigen, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, and multiplex influenza A/B testing proved useful for differential diagnosis, public awareness, travel certifications, and telehealth treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Rural diagnostic portals implemented in California demonstrated a feasible public health strategy for Cambodia. Automated dispensers and mobile POCT can respond to COVID-19 case surges and enhance preparedness. Point-of-need planning can enhance resilience and assure spatial justice. Public health assets should include higher-quality, lower-cost, readily accessible, and user-friendly POCT, such as self-testing for diagnosis, home molecular tests, distributed border detection for surveillance, and mobile diagnostics vans for quick telehealth treatment. High-risk settings will benefit from the synthesis of geospatially optimized POCT, automated 24-7 test access, and timely diagnosis of asymptomatic and symptomatic patients at points of need now, during new outbreaks, and in future pandemics.

Quantifying Disparities in COVID-19 Vaccination Rates by Rural and Urban Areas: Cross-Sectional Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Vaccination plays an important role in preventing COVID-19 infection and reducing the severity of the disease. There are usually differences in vaccination rates between urban and rural areas. Measuring these differences can aid in developing more coordinated and sustainable solutions. This information also serves as a reference for the prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases in the future.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess the current coverage rate and influencing factors of COVID-19 (second booster) vaccination among Chinese residents, as well as the disparities between urban and rural areas in China.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study used a stratified random sampling approach to select representative samples from 11 communities and 10 villages in eastern (Changzhou), central (Zhengzhou), western (Xining), and northeast (Mudanjiang) Mainland China from February 1 to February 18, 2023. The questionnaires were developed by experienced epidemiologists and contained the following: sociodemographic information, health conditions, vaccine-related information, information related to the Protective Motivation Theory (PMT), and the level of trust in the health care system. Vaccination rates among the participants were evaluated based on self-reported information provided. Binary logistic regression models were performed to explore influencing factors of vaccination among urban and rural participants. Urban-rural disparities in the vaccination rate were assessed using propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

A total of 5780 participants were included, with 53.04% (3066/5780) being female. The vaccination rate was 12.18% (704/5780; 95% CI 11.34-13.02) in the total sample, 13.76% (341/2478; 95% CI 12.40-15.12) among the rural participants, and 10.99% (363/3302; 95% CI 9.93-12.06) among the urban participants. For rural participants, self-reported health condition, self-efficacy, educational level, vaccine knowledge, susceptibility, benefits, and trust in the health care system were independent factors associated with vaccination (all P＜.05). For urban participants, chronic conditions, COVID-19 infection, subjective community level, vaccine knowledge, self-efficacy, and trust in the health care system were independent factors associated with vaccination (all P＜.05). PSM analysis uncovered a 3.42% difference in vaccination rates between urban and rural participants.

CONCLUSIONS

The fourth COVID-19 vaccination coverage rate (second booster) among the Chinese population was extremely low, significantly lower than the previous vaccine coverage rate. Given that COVID-19 infection is still prevalent at low levels, efforts should focus on enhancing self-efficacy to expand the vaccine coverage rate among the Chinese population. For rural residents, building awareness of the vaccine's benefits and improving their overall health status should be prioritized. In urban areas, a larger proportion of people with COVID-19 and patients with chronic illness should be vaccinated.

Stem cell therapy for COVID-19 treatment: An umbrella review

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has presented significant obstacles to healthcare. Stem cell therapy, particularly mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), has emerged as a potential treatment modality due to its immunomodulatory and regenerative properties. This umbrella review aims to synthesize current evidence from systematic reviews on the safety and efficacy of stem cell therapy in COVID-19 treatment.

METHODS

A thorough literature search was performed across Embase, PubMed, Cochrane and Web of Science from December 2019 to February 2024. Systematic reviews focusing on the use of stem cell therapy for COVID-19 were included. Evidence was synthesized by meta-analysis using R software (V 4.3) for each outcome. The certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE approach.

RESULTS

A total of 24 systematic reviews were included. Stem cell therapy was associated with reduced mortality (RR 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.86); shorter hospital stays (MD -4.00 days, 95% CI: -4.68 to -3.32), and decreased need for invasive ventilation (RR 0.521, 95% CI: 0.320 to 0.847). Symptom remission rates improved (RR 1.151, 95% CI: 0.998 to 1.330), and a reduction in CRP levels was noted (SMD -1.198, 95% CI: -2.591 to 0.195), albeit with high heterogeneity. For adverse events, no significant differences were found between stem cell therapy and standard care (RR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.607 to 1.265). The certainty of evidence ranged from low to moderate.

CONCLUSION

Stem cell therapy demonstrates a potential benefit in treating COVID-19, particularly in reducing mortality and hospital stay duration. Despite these promising findings, the evidence is varied, and future large-scale randomized trials are essential to confirm the efficacy and optimize the therapeutic protocols for stem cell therapy in the management of the disease. The safety profile is encouraging, with no significant increase in adverse events, suggesting a viable avenue for treatment expansion.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) we first conducted in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to determine whether the MENA region meets the criteria for moving from a pandemic to endemic. In doing so, this study considers pandemic trends, dynamic and genomic surveillance methods, and region-specific historical context for the pandemic. These considerations continue through the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023.

METHODS

In addition to updates to traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed of COVID-19 spread was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data from September 4, 2020, to May 12, 2023.

RESULTS

The speed of COVID-19 spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 7 continuous months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive, the weekly shift parameters suggested the coefficients had most recently turned negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of the speed of spread equal to 10 became entirely insignificant from October 2022 onward.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic had far-reaching effects on MENA, impacting health care systems, economies, and social well-being. Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in the MENA region, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for over 1 year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had transitioned to endemic by the time of the WHO declaration.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

In May 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 40% of worldwide COVID-19-related deaths at the time. This high disease burden was a result of the unique circumstances in LAC.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to (1) measure whether the pandemic was expanding or contracting in LAC when the WHO declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide, with a focus on prevention policies, a historical context for the course of the pandemic in the region.

METHODS

In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern (VOCs). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we conducted a 1-sided t test for whether the regional weekly speed (rate of novel COVID-19 transmission) was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the period from August 2020 to May 2023.

RESULTS

The speed of pandemic spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 6 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant for the 120-day period ending on the week of May 5, 2023, the coefficients were relatively modest in magnitude (0.457 and 0.491, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any change in this clustering effect of cases on future cases. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant VOC in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed=10 became entirely insignificant from January 2023 onward.

CONCLUSIONS

Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in LAC, surveillance data suggest COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, the region experienced a high COVID-19 burden in the early stages of the pandemic, and prevention policies should be an immediate focus in future pandemics. Ahead of vaccination development, these policies can include widespread testing of individuals and an epidemiological task force with a contact-tracing system.

Effect of Long-Distance Domestic Travel Ban Policies in Japan on COVID-19 Outbreak Dynamics During Dominance of the Ancestral Strain: Ex Post Facto Retrospective Observation Study

BACKGROUND

In Japan, long-distance domestic travel was banned while the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain was dominant under the first declared state of emergency from March 2020 until the end of May 2020. Subsequently, the "Go To Travel" campaign travel subsidy policy was activated, allowing long-distance domestic travel, until the second state of emergency as of January 7, 2021. The effects of this long-distance domestic travel ban on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity have not been adequately evaluated.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the effects of the long-distance domestic travel ban in Japan on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity, considering climate conditions, mobility, and countermeasures such as the "Go To Travel" campaign and emergency status.

METHODS

We calculated the effective reproduction number R(t), representing infectivity, using the epidemic curve in Kagoshima prefecture based on the empirical distribution of the incubation period and procedurally delayed reporting from an earlier study. Kagoshima prefecture, in southern Japan, has several resorts, with an airport commonly used for transportation to Tokyo or Osaka. We regressed R(t) on the number of long-distance domestic travelers (based on the number of airport limousine bus users provided by the operating company), temperature, humidity, mobility, and countermeasures such as state of emergency declarations and the "Go To Travel" campaign in Kagoshima. The study period was June 20, 2020, through February 2021, before variant strains became dominant. A second state of emergency was not declared in Kagoshima prefecture but was declared in major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka.

RESULTS

Estimation results indicated a pattern of declining infectivity with reduced long-distance domestic travel volumes as measured by the number of airport limousine bus users. Moreover, infectivity was lower during the "Go To Travel" campaign and the second state of emergency. Regarding mobility, going to restaurants, shopping malls, and amusement venues was associated with increased infectivity. However, going to grocery stores and pharmacies was associated with decreased infectivity. Climate conditions showed no significant association with infectivity patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this retrospective analysis suggest that the volume of long-distance domestic travel might reduce SARS-CoV-2 infectivity. Infectivity was lower during the "Go To Travel" campaign period, during which long-distance domestic travel was promoted, compared to that outside this campaign period. These findings suggest that policies banning long-distance domestic travel had little legitimacy or rationale. Long-distance domestic travel with appropriate infection control measures might not increase SARS-CoV-2 infectivity in tourist areas. Even though this analysis was performed much later than the study period, if we had performed this study focusing on the period of April or May 2021, it would likely yield the same results. These findings might be helpful for government decision-making in considering restarting a "Go To Travel" campaign in light of evidence-based policy.

Vaccination and its impact on healthcare utilization in two groups of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients with COVID-19: A cross-sectional study in Iran between 2021 and 2022

Background and Aims

One of the main responsibilities of health systems impacted by the global Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, where the first case was discovered in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, is the provision of medical services. The current study looked into the impact of vaccination on the utilization of services provided to COVID-19 patients.

Methods

This study was conducted in Iran between 2021 and 2022, utilizing a cross-sectional research design. The research team collected data on the utilization of provided services and the number of COVID-19 vaccines administered to 1000 patients in Iran through a random sampling approach. The data were analyzed with statistical methods, including the mean difference test, and multiple linear regression.

Results

Regression estimates show that after controlling for confounding variables like age, type of admission, and comorbidities, vaccination reduces the utilization of healthcare services in the general majority of services. The study's results reveal a fall in COVID-19 patients' utilization of services, specifically in patients administered two or three doses of the vaccine. However, the reduction is not statistically significant. Regression models are in contrast to univariate analysis findings that vaccination increases the mean utilization of healthcare services for COVID-19 patients in general. Comorbidities are a crucial factor in determining the utilization of diagnostic and treatment services for COVID-19 patients.

Conclusion

Full COVID-19 vaccination and other implementations, including investing in public health, cooperating globally, and vaccinating high-risk groups for future pandemics, are essential as a critical response to this pandemic as they reduce healthcare service utilization to alleviate the burden on healthcare systems and allocate resources more efficiently.

Adoption of a COVID-19 Contact Tracing App by Czech Youth: Cross-Cultural Replication Study

BACKGROUND

During the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic crisis, the role of digital contact tracing (DCT) intensified. However, the uptake of this technology expectedly differed among age cohorts and national cultures. Various conceptual tools were introduced to strengthen DCT research from a theoretical perspective. However, little has been done to compare theory-supported findings across different cultural contexts and age cohorts.

OBJECTIVE

Building on the original study conducted in Belgium in April 2020 and theoretically underpinned by the Health Belief Model (HBM), this study attempted to confirm the predictors of DCT adoption in a cultural environment different from the original setting, that is, the Czech Republic. In addition, by using brief qualitative evidence, it aimed to shed light on the possible limitations of the HBM in the examined context and to propose certain extensions of the HBM.

METHODS

A Czech version of the original instrument was administered to a convenience sample of young (aged 18-29 y) Czech adults in November 2020. After filtering, 519 valid responses were obtained and included in the quantitative data analysis, which used structural equation modeling and followed the proposed structure of the relationships among the HBM constructs. Furthermore, a qualitative thematic analysis of the free-text answers was conducted to provide additional insights about the model's validity in the given context.

RESULTS

The proposed measurement model exhibited less optimal fit (root mean square error of approximation=0.065, 90% CI 0.060-0.070) than in the original study (root mean square error of approximation=0.036, 90% CI 0.033-0.039). Nevertheless, perceived benefits and perceived barriers were confirmed as the main, statistically significant predictors of DCT uptake, consistent with the original study (β=.60, P<.001 and β=-.39; P<.001, respectively). Differently from the original study, self-efficacy was not a significant predictor in the strict statistical sense (β=.12; P=.003). In addition, qualitative analysis demonstrated that in the given cohort, perceived barriers was the most frequent theme (166/354, 46.9% of total codes). Under this category, psychological fears and concerns was a subtheme, notably diverging from the original operationalization of the perceived barriers construct. In a similar sense, a role for social influence in DCT uptake processes was suggested by some respondents (12/354, 1.7% of total codes). In summary, the quantitative and qualitative results indicated that the proposed quantitative model seemed to be of limited value in the examined context.

CONCLUSIONS

Future studies should focus on reconceptualizing the 2 underperforming constructs (ie, perceived severity and cues to action) by considering the qualitative findings. This study also provided actionable insights for policy makers and app developers to mitigate DCT adoption issues in the event of a future pandemic caused by unknown viral agents.

The changing contributory role to infections of work, public transport, shopping, hospitality and leisure activities throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England and Wales

Background

Understanding how non-household activities contributed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections under different levels of national health restrictions is vital.

Methods

Among adult Virus Watch participants in England and Wales, we used multivariable logistic regressions and adjusted-weighted population attributable fractions (aPAF) assessing the contribution of work, public transport, shopping, and hospitality and leisure activities to infections.

Results

Under restrictions, among 17,256 participants (502 infections), work [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.01 (1.65-2.44), (aPAF) 30% (22-38%)] and transport [(aOR 1.15 (0.94-1.40), aPAF 5% (-3-12%)], were risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 but shopping, hospitality and leisure were not. Following the lifting of restrictions, among 11,413 participants (493 infections), work [(aOR 1.35 (1.11-1.64), aPAF 17% (6-26%)] and transport [(aOR 1.27 (1.04-1.57), aPAF 12% (2-22%)] contributed most, with indoor hospitality [(aOR 1.21 (0.98-1.48), aPAF 7% (-1-15%)] and leisure [(aOR 1.24 (1.02-1.51), aPAF 10% (1-18%)] increasing. During the Omicron variant, with individuals more socially engaged, among 11,964 participants (2335 infections), work [(aOR 1.28 (1.16-1.41), aPAF (11% (7-15%)] and transport [(aOR 1.16 (1.04-1.28), aPAF 6% (2-9%)] remained important but indoor hospitality [(aOR 1.43 (1.26-1.62), aPAF 20% (13-26%)] and leisure [(aOR 1.35 (1.22-1.48), aPAF 10% (7-14%)] dominated.

Conclusions

Work and public transport were important to transmissions throughout the pandemic with hospitality and leisure's contribution increasing as restrictions were lifted, highlighting the importance of restricting leisure and hospitality alongside advising working from home, when facing a highly infectious and virulent respiratory infection.

National governance and excess mortality due to COVID-19 in 213 countries: a retrospective analysis and perspectives on future pandemics

BACKGROUND

National governance may have influenced the response of institutions to the Covid-19 pandemic, being a key factor in preparing for the next pandemics. The objective was to analyze the association between excess mortality due to COVID-19 (daily and cumulative per 100 thousand people) and national governance indicators in 213 countries.

METHOD

Multiple linear regression models using secondary data from large international datasets that are in the public domain were performed. Governance indicators corresponded to six dimensions: (i) Voice and Accountability; (ii) Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism; (iii) Government Effectiveness; (iv) Regulatory Quality; (v) Rule of Law and (vi) Control of Corruption. The statistical analysis consisted of adjusting a multiple linear regression model. Excess mortality due to COVID-19 was adjusted for potential confounding factors (demographic, environmental, health, economic, and ethnic variables).

RESULTS

The indicators Control of Corruption, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality and Rule of Law had a significant inverse association (p < 0.0001) with the estimated excess mortality in 2020, 2021 and 2022. Furthermore, the governance indicators had a direct significant association (p < 0.0001) with the vaccination variables (People_fully_vaccinated; Delivered population; The total number of vaccination doses administered per 100 people at the country level), except for the variables Vaccination policies and Administration of first dose, which were inversely associated. In countries with better governance, COVID-19 vaccination was initiated earlier.

CONCLUSION

Better national governance indicators were associated with lower excess mortality due to COVID-19 and faster administration of the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.

Dynamic evolution of policy mix in response to COVID-19: Practice from China

COVID-19 is a global pandemic. In response to this unprecedented crisis, Chinese government formulated a series of policies. This research is dedicated to exploring the dynamic evolution of China's policy mix in response to COVID-19 in different crisis response stages from a network perspective. First, a three-dimensional analysis framework of "policy subject-policy target-policy instrument" was developed. Then, based on the data sets collected by textual analysis, the dynamic evolution of policy subject, policy target, policy instrument in China's policy mix in response to COVID-19 was discussed by using the method of SNA. This study concluded that the core policy subject, policy instrument, and policy target of China's response to COVID-19 changed with time. National Health Commission (NHC), Ministry of Finance (MOF), Ministry of Transport (MOT) and Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (MHRSS) have important influences in the network of policy subjects. Other subjects are more at the edge of the network, and there are few joint issuances among policy subjects. The study also found that the core policy target was adjusted over time, with phased dynamic characteristics. At the initial stage of China's response to COVID-19, "reduce infection and mortality" and "steadily carry out economic and social work" were the core policy targets. With the COVID-19 under control, "enterprise development and work resumption" becomes a new core policy target. In addition, this study also revealed the dynamic evolution and unbalanced use of China's policy instruments in response to COVID-19 in different stages. The combination of policy instruments is mainly composed of "mandatory administration instruments" and "economic incentive instruments", and supplemented by "health promotion instruments" and "voluntary plan instruments". These findings may enrich the literature on COVID-19 policy to help researchers understand the dynamics of policy from a network perspective. Moreover, these findings may provide several valuable implications for policymakers and other countries to formulate more effective policies for epidemic response.

Quantifying COVID-19 policy impacts on subjective well-being during the early phase of the pandemic: A cross-sectional analysis of United States survey data from March to August 2020

To stop the spread of COVID-19, a number of public health policies and restrictions were implemented during the pre-vaccination phase of the pandemic. This study provides a quantitative assessment of how these policies impacted subjective well-being (SWB) in the United States over a 6-month period spanning March to August 2020. We study two specific research objectives. First, we aim to quantify the impacts of COVID-19 public health policies at different levels of stringency on SWB. Second, we train and implement a conditional inference tree model for predicting individual SWB based both on socio-demographic characteristics and policies then in place. Our results indicate that policies such as enforcing strict stay-at-home requirements and closing workplaces were negatively associated with SWB, and that an individual's socio-demographic characteristics, including income status, job, and gender, conditionally interact with policies such as workplace closure in a predictive model of SWB. Therefore, although such policies may have positive health implications, they also have secondary environmental and social implications that need to be taken into account in any cost-benefit analysis of such policies for future pandemic preparedness. Our proposed methodology suggests a way to quantify such impacts through the lens of SWB, and to further advance the science of pandemic preparedness from a public health perspective.

Epidemic history investigation: a new method of finding close contacts

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 has become a major global public health concern in December 2019. However, finding and excluding close contacts of COVID-19 infectors is a critical but difficult issue. This study aimed to introduce a new method of epidemiological investigation named space-time companions, which was adopted in Chengdu, China, in November 2021.

Methods

An observational investigation was conducted during a small outbreak of COVID-19 in Chengdu, China in November 2021. A new method of epidemiological investigation called space-time companion was adopted in this outbreak, which was defined as the one who stayed in the same spatiotemporal grid (range: 800 m * 800 m) with the confirmed COVID-19 infector for more than 10 min in the last 14 days. A flow chart was used to describe the screening process of space-time companions in detail and illustrate the space-time companion epidemic management method.

Results

The COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in Chengdu was effectively controlled for approximately one incubation period (14 days). After four rounds of space-time companions screening, more than 450,000 space-time companions were screened, including 27 COVID-19 infectors. Moreover, in the subsequent rounds of nucleic acid testing for all people in the city, no infected person were found proving the end of this epidemic outbreak.

Conclusion

The space-time companion provides a new idea for screening close contacts of the COVID-19 infector and other similar infectious diseases, which can serve as a supplement to traditional epidemiological history surveys to verify and avoid missing close contacts.

Knowledge and attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination in Sudan: A cross-sectional study

Background

Vaccines are an essential part of public health interventions to mitigate the devastating health and non-health impacts of COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the fact that Sudan launched the COVID-19 vaccination program in March 2021, only 10% of the population received their two primary doses of vaccines by the end of May 2022. This delayed uptake of vaccines obviously warrants investigation. Therefore, we have conducted this study to evaluate the knowledge, attitude and acceptance of the general population in Sudan toward COVID-19 vaccines.

Methodology

A descriptive cross-sectional community-based study. The data were collected using an electronic questionnaire from 403 individuals living in Khartoum, Sudan. The data were processed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS), and data analysis was performed using appropriate tests.

Results

51% of the participants were found to have sufficient knowledge about the COVID-19 vaccine, and the knowledge level is higher among those educated beyond the secondary school and those who were employed. Among those unvaccinated, only 47% of the participants expressed their intention to take the vaccine when offered to them. The major reason for not trusting the vaccine is safety concerns expressed by 65.5% of the unvaccinated.

Conclusion

Higher education levels and employment were associated with an increase in sufficient knowledge about the vaccine in around half of the participants. However, most of participants had not taken the vaccine at the time of the study, and the trust in vaccines is not high. Effective interventions by the health authorities are needed to address these issues in order to accelerate the COVID-19 vaccination program in Sudan.

High potential of technology to face new respiratory viruses: mechanical ventilation devices for effective healthcare to next pandemic emergencies

Some countries in the presence of unforeseen Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have experienced lower total deaths, though higher numbers of COVID-19 related infections. Results here suggest that one of the explanations is the critical role of ventilator technology in clinical health environment to cope with the initial stage of COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Statistical evidence shows that a large number of ventilators or breathing devices in countries (26.76 units per 100,000 inhabitants) is associated with a fatality rate of 1.44% (December 2020), whereas a higher fatality rate given by 2.46% is in nations with lower numbers of ventilator devices (10.38 average units per 100,000 people). These findings suggest that a large number of medical ventilators in clinical setting has a high potential for more efficient healthcare and improves the effective preparedness of crisis management to cope with new respiratory pandemic diseases in society. Hence, a forward-thinking and technology-oriented strategy in healthcare sector, based on investments in high-tech ventilator devices and other new medical technologies, can help clinicians deliver effective care and reduce negative effects of present and future respiratory infectious diseases, in particular when new drugs and appropriate treatments are missing in clinical environment to face unknown respiratory viral agents .

Association of the corona virus (Covid-19) epidemic with environmental risk factors

The current outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus disease 2019; previously 2019-nCoV), epicenter in Hubei Province (Wuhan), People's Republic of China, has spread too many other countries. The transmission of the corona virus occurs when people are in the incubation stage and do not have any symptoms. Therefore, the role of environmental factors such as temperature and wind speed becomes very important. The study of Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) indicates that there is a significant relationship between temperature and virus transmission and three important factors, namely temperature, humidity and wind speed, cause SARS transmission. Daily data on the incidence and mortality of Covid-19 disease were collected from World Health Organization (WHO) website and World Meter website (WMW) for several major cities in Iran and the world. Data were collected from February 2020 to September 2021. Meteorological data including temperature, air pressure, wind speed, dew point and air quality index (AQI) index are extracted from the website of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Statistical analysis carried out for significance relationships. The correlation coefficient between the number of infected people in one day and the environmental variables in the countries was different from each other. The relationship between AQI and number of infected was significant in all cities. In Canberra, Madrid and Paris, a significant inverse relationship was observed between the number of infected people in one day and wind speed. There is a significant positive relationship between the number of infected people in a day and the dew point in the cities of Canberra, Wellington and Washington. The relationship between the number of infected people in one day and Pressure was significantly reversed in Madrid and Washington, but positive in Canberra, Brasilia, Paris and Wuhan. There was significant relationship between Dew point and prevalence. Wind speed showed a significant relationship in USA, Madrid and Paris. AQI was strongly associated with the prevalence of covid19. The purpose of this study is to investigate some environmental factors in the transmission of the corona virus.

Spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the international trade resilience during COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have created immeasurable health and economic crises, leading to unprecedented disruptions to world trade. The COVID-19 pandemic shows diverse impacts on different economies that suffer and recover at different rates and degrees. This research aims to evaluate the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of international trade network vulnerabilities in the current crisis to understand the global production resilience and prepare for the future crisis. We applied a series of complex network analysis approaches to the monthly international trade networks at the world, regional, and country scales for the pre- and post- COVID-19 outbreak period. The spatio-temporal patterns indicate that countries and regions with an effective COVID-19 containment such as East Asia show the strongest resilience, especially Mainland China, followed by high-income countries with fast vaccine roll-out (e.g., U.S.), whereas low-income countries (e.g., Africa) show high vulnerability. Our results encourage a comprehensive strategy to enhance international trade resilience when facing future pandemic threats including effective non-pharmaceutical measures, timely development and rollout of vaccines, strong governance capacity, robust healthcare systems, and equality via international cooperation. The overall findings elicit the hidden global trading disruption, recovery, and growth due to the adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Animal experiments on respiratory viruses and analogous studies of infection factors for interpersonal transmission

Air pollution caused by SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses in human settlements will have a great impact on human health, but also a great risk of transmission. The transmission power of the virus can be represented by quanta number in the Wells-Riley model. In order to solve the problem of different dynamic transmission scenarios, only a single influencing factor is considered when predicting the infection rate, which leads to large differences in quanta calculated in the same space. In this paper, an analog model is established to define the indoor air cleaning index RL and the space ratio parameter. Based on infection data analysis and rule summary in animal experiments, factors affecting quanta in interpersonal communication were explored. Finally, by analogy, the factors affecting person-to-person transmission mainly include viral load of infected person, distance between individuals, etc., the more severe the symptoms, the closer the number of days of illness to the peak, and the closer the distance to the quanta. In summary, there are many factors that affect the infection rate of susceptible people in the human settlement environment. This study provides reference indicators for environmental governance under the COVID-19 epidemic, provides reference opinions for healthy interpersonal communication and human behavior, and provides some reference for accurately judging the trend of epidemic spread and responding to the epidemic.

Secondary impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic at a tertiary children's hospital in Canada: a mixed-methods study

OBJECTIVES

Decisions to pause all non-essential paediatric hospital activities during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic may have led to significant delays, deferrals and disruptions in medical care. This study explores clinical cases where the care of children was perceived by hospital clinicians to have been negatively impacted because of the changes in healthcare delivery attributing to the restrictions placed resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This study used a mixed-methods approach using the following: (1) a quantitative analysis of overall descriptive hospital activity between May and August 2020, and utilisation of data during the study period was performed, and (2) a qualitative multiple-case study design with descriptive thematic analysis of clinician-reported consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on care provided at a tertiary children's hospital.

RESULTS

Hospital-level utilisation and activity patterns revealed a substantial change to hospital activity including an initial reduction in emergency department attendance by 38% and an increase in ambulatory virtual care from 4% before COVID-19 to 67% between May and August 2020. Two hundred and twelve clinicians reported a total of 116 unique cases. Themes including (1) timeliness of care, (2) disruption of patient-centred care, (3) new pressures in the provision of safe and efficient care and (4) inequity in the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic emerged, each impacting patients, their families and healthcare providers.

CONCLUSION

Being aware of the breadth of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across all of the identified themes is important to enable the delivery of timely, safe, high-quality, family-centred paediatric care moving forward.

What is the optimal country for minimum COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates?

The SARS-CoV-2 is a deceptive virus. Despite the remarkable progress in genetic sequencing and subsequent vaccine development, the world continues to grapple with the ominous threats of rapidly appearing SARS-CoV-2 variants. The objective of this manuscript is to rank world countries based on the anticipated scope of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, measured in terms of prevalence per 1 million persons, from the lowest to the highest. The ranking of 162 countries is based on predictions of empirical models, which include three explanatory variables: hospital beds per thousand persons, population density, and the median age of the country's population. Referring to the COVID-19 scope of morbidity, the lowest likelihood of infection is obtained in Niger and Mali, where the dominant characteristic is the young median age (15.1-16.4 years). Referring to the COVID-19 scope of mortality, the lowest likelihood is obtained in Singapore. For Singapore, the dominant feature is the high population density. The optimal solution is intensive vaccination campaigns in the initial phase of the pandemic, particularly among countries with low GDP per capita. Yet, vaccinations may work only where the personal immune system is healthy and thus respond by creating antibodies to the SARS-CoV2 virus. Referring to populations that lack the natural protection of the healthy immune system and thus cannot be vaccinated (e.g., old people, cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy treatments), a complementary solution might be coordination between countries and the establishment of field hospitals, testing laboratories, isolation of areas, humanitarian aid-in the same manner of treatment in other disasters like earthquakes.

Perception of the Lebanese Adults about Vaccination: A Survey

Introduction: With the continuous spread and emergence of transmissible diseases, focusing on preventive measures is essential to decrease their incidence and spread. In addition to behavioral measures, vaccination is an optimal way to protect the population and eradicate infectious diseases. The majority are aware of children’s vaccinations, while many might not know that adult vaccinations are also essential. Objectives: This study aims to understand the perception of Lebanese adults towards vaccination and their knowledge and awareness of its importance. This is a national cross-sectional study, conducted between January 2020 and January 2021. Results: the data were collected from 1023 subjects, the majority being Lebanese, previously healthy, and with a graduate or post-graduate level of education. Out of these participants, 44.9% were advised to take vaccines, half of them by healthcare workers. The most common vaccine received during adult life is the Flu vaccine. Overall, 25.6% of the participants were unaware that they needed vaccines and 27.9% thought it is not indicated. Participants’ knowledge about vaccination is variable. In total, 39.4% agree or are uncertain whether vaccines contain harmful chemicals and 48.4% believe that vaccines will trigger diseases. The level of education and occupation significantly enhances knowledge about vaccination. Some participants 27.3% are concerned about the vaccine’s side effects. The group of young participants, graduates, and nonsmokers think that the vaccine is a necessity and had a positive attitude towards vaccination. Conclusions: Many Lebanese lack knowledge about adult vaccination protection and its benefits in the community. It is essential that the country’s health ministry department collaborate with the healthcare system to launch awareness campaigns about adult vaccination in the country to overcome the barriers and ensure better coverage.

The Influence of the Health Belief Model on the Decision to Get the COVID-19 Vaccine: An International Survey Study of College Students

To better prepare for a potential future pandemic, it is important to investigate factors that influenced responses to the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the present study was to investigate factors that influenced the decision to get the COVID-19 vaccine. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected almost everyone throughout the world. Vaccines are a significant factor in managing a pandemic. As vaccines are developed, governments develop vaccine roll-out plans. Unfortunately, vaccine hesitancies can slow the implementation of any vaccine program. A question arises as to the factors that are associated with the decision to get vaccinated. The present study explored associations between vaccine hesitancy, and the Health Belief Model (HBM) in student samples from the Czech Republic, Israel, and the United States. From August, 2021 through December, 2021, an online survey was distributed in Czech, Hebrew, and English. A total of 447 participants completed the survey. A binomial logistic regression was conducted to ascertain the influence of perceived susceptibility, severity, benefits, and barriers on the likelihood that participants are vaccinated. Results revealed that the factors of perceived severity and perceived benefits explained 52.6% (Nagelkerke R2) of the variance in vaccination. An analysis of Variance (ANOVA) found significant differences between countries for the 4 HBM factors. Based on these findings, it is recommended that policymakers put forth added emphasis on the severity of a virus and the benefits associated with the vaccine. Further, since there appears to be variability between countries in perceptions of the virus, and associated vaccine, governments should consider factors within their own environment when developing a strategy to combat a pandemic. More specifically, government could explore their own strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as they develop a pandemic strategy. Additional practical and theoretical implications are discussed.

Time-series COVID-19 policymaker analysis of the UAE, Taiwan, New Zealand, Japan and Hungary

There are two types of policy analysis: socioeconomic analysis and public policy outcome analysis. The socioeconomic analysis is used for understanding the relationship between COVID-19 incident and mortality and building effective governance. There are two types of policy outcome analysis: general policy analysis and time series policy analysis. This paper is a policy outcome analysis of COVID-19, not a policy analysis. This paper examines COVID-19 policy outcome analysis of five countries such as the UAE, Taiwan, New Zealand, Japan and Hungary. Two policy outcome analysis tools are used in this paper such as scorecovid to generate a snapshot list of sorted scores and time-series hiscovid to identify when policymakers made mistakes for correcting mistakes in the near future policy update. Scores in both tools are based on the population mortality rate: dividing the number of COVID-19 deaths by the population in millions. The lower the score, the better the policy. The higher the score, the more deaths that make people unhappy. COVID-19 death is the most unfortunate event in life and is caused by policy. The introduced time-series policy analysis tool, hiscovid discovered ten facts of five countries. Discovered ten facts will be detailed in this paper. Visualization of policy outcomes over time will play an important role in mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic.

Improving Public Health Policy by Comparing the Public Response during the Start of COVID-19 and Monkeypox on Twitter in Germany: A Mixed Methods Study

Little is known about monkeypox public concerns since its widespread emergence in many countries. Tweets in Germany were examined in the first three months of COVID-19 and monkeypox to examine concerns and issues raised by the public. Understanding views and positions of the public could help to shape future public health campaigns. Few qualitative studies reviewed large datasets, and the results provide the first instance of the public thinking comparing COVID-19 and monkeypox. We retrieved 15,936 tweets from Germany using query words related to both epidemics in the first three months of each one. A sequential explanatory mixed methods research joined a machine learning approach with thematic analysis using a novel rapid tweet analysis protocol. In COVID-19 tweets, there was the selfing construct or feeling part of the emerging narrative of the spread and response. In contrast, during monkeypox, the public considered othering after the fatigue of the COVID-19 response, or an impersonal feeling toward the disease. During monkeypox, coherence and reconceptualization of new and competing information produced a customer rather than a consumer/producer model. Public healthcare policy should reconsider a one-size-fits-all model during information campaigns and produce a strategic approach embedded within a customer model to educate the public about preventative measures and updates. A multidisciplinary approach could prevent and minimize mis/disinformation.

COVID-19 Vaccination is not a Sufficient Public Policy to face Crisis Management of next Pandemic Threats

This study reveals that a vast vaccination campaign is a necessary but not sufficient public policy to reduce the negative impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis because manifold factors guide the spread of this new infectious disease and related mortality in society. Statistical evidence here, based on a worldwide sample of countries, shows a positive correlation between people fully vaccinated and COVID-19 mortality (r = + 0.65, p-value < 0.01). Multivariate regression, controlling income per capita, confirms this finding. Results suggest that the increasing share of people vaccinated against COVID-19 seems to be a necessary but not sufficient health policy to reduce mortality of COVID-19. The findings here can be explained with the role of Peltzman effect, new variants, environmental and socioeconomic factors that affect the diffusion and negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic in society. This study extends the knowledge in this research field to design effective public policies of crisis management for facing next pandemic threats.