The impact of college education on fertility: evidence for heterogeneous effects

Twentieth-Century Change in the Educational Costs of Adolescent Childbearing

Although studies observe heterogeneity in the effects of adolescent childbearing on schooling, little is currently known about when this pattern emerged or how it changed across cohorts of women who lived in distinct periods of US history. This article identifies the potential origins of effect heterogeneity in the educational costs of adolescent childbearing and extends recent advances in causal inference to detect group differences in heterogeneity. The analysis applies this approach to four cohorts of women from the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) who entered adolescence before, during, and after expansive economic, demographic, and cultural change in the twentieth century. Results suggest that the educational costs of adolescent childbearing, as well as heterogeneity in those costs, increased for women in the latter half of the twentieth century, especially for millennial women born 1980-84. The authors conclude that midcentury social changes fundamentally altered the educational costs of adolescent childbearing for women.

Best for Whom? Heterogeneous Treatment Effects of Breastfeeding on Child Development

The slogan "Breast is Best" has been popularized by medical organizations and parenting networks to extoll the benefits of breastfeeding, yet the causal effects are widely debated. Our study contributes to the debate by examining whether breastfeeding has differential effects based on the propensity to breastfeed, which is also known as causal effect heterogeneity. Prior studies attempt to isolate the causal effect of breastfeeding by netting out confounding characteristics, but we argue that the effects of breastmilk are unlikely to operate in a vacuum. The social forces that promote or constrain breastfeeding among different populations in American society can also shape its effects. Using rich intergenerational panel data from the NLSY79 Child and Young Adult cohort (n = 7902), we evaluate heterogeneous treatment effects in the relationship between breastfeeding and child development from ages 4 to 14 using stratification-multilevel propensity score models. We find that breastfeeding is associated with small benefits for behavioral development, math scores, and academic ability among those with the highest propensities to breastfeed. By contrast, its small benefits for reading comprehension and vocabulary are concentrated among children with the lowest propensities to breastfeed. Our findings suggest that the social process of selection into breastfeeding cannot be fully disentangled from its estimated effects. The social context not only shapes who breastfeeds in American society, but also who benefits most.

Beyond Parental Wealth: Grandparental Wealth and the Transition to Adulthood

This study considers the multigenerational consequences of wealth transmission for the transition to young adulthood. Using a wider set of outcomes than has previously been considered, and by analyzing parental and grandparental wealth simultaneously, this work underscores the salience of multiple generations of wealth as a predictor for young adult well-being. Data comes from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics on a sample of youth followed from mid-adolescence until the age of 20. Results from linear regression models indicate that parental wealth was associated with increases in the probability of college attendance and steady employment and inversely associated with the likelihood of nonmarital birth and idleness. Grandparental wealth predicted non-educational outcomes at least as well as parental wealth did and explained more variance in young adults' outcomes when parental wealth was lower. The association between parental wealth and non-educational outcomes suggest that wealth may inform young adults' broader life course by predicting outcomes other than college attendance. Grandparental wealth may serve a compensatory function for children with low parental wealth. Results suggest that persistently low wealth across multiple generations may impede the successful transition to young adulthood.

Educational Mismatch and Workers' Fertility Intentions: Evidence from China

This paper focuses on the impact of the educational mismatch on workers' fertility intentions and explores the underlying mechanisms. Empirical research based on the China Family Panel Survey (CFPS) data shows that undereducation has a negative effect on the fertility intentions of women aged 18-35, whereas overeducation reports no effect, a finding that remains stable in the robustness test and the IV model. An explanation for this phenomenon is that undereducated female workers have a wage premium and higher expectations of career development, which implies a greater opportunity cost of fertility. The heterogeneity analysis shows that women with low socio-economic status, especially those who are less educated, from low-income households, and who are employed in the private sector, are more affected. It is therefore necessary to reduce the substitution risk in the labor market for this group and to lighten the fertility burden and pressure on women.

Private supplementary education and Chinese adolescents' development: The moderating effects of family socioeconomic status

Using the data from the China Education Panel Survey (CEPS), this study estimated the effects of two types of private supplementary education, namely, cram school and hobby class, on the development of Chinese junior high school students and the moderating effects of family socioeconomic status (SES). First, we found that cram schools and hobby classes both positively correlate with some dimensions of adolescents' development while negatively correlating with others. Attending cram schools is positively associated with students' academic achievement but negatively related to their noncognitive skills. Participating in hobby classes is positively associated with noncognitive abilities but negatively related to cognitive abilities. Second, the negative correlations between cram schools and noncognitive abilities and between hobby classes and cognitive abilities are stronger for low-SES students than their affluent counterparts. The current study's findings shed new light on the role of private supplementary education in educational inequality and social stratification in China.

Exploring fertility knowledge amongst healthcare professional and lay population groups in the UK: a mixed methods study

As the average age of first-time parents continues to rise, there has been a concerted effort by educators, policy makers and several reproductive health groups to improve fertility awareness. This study explored fertility knowledge of lay men and women and healthcare professionals (HCPs) using the same test instrument, providing a new and unique perspective compared with previous studies. Results were obtained from 1082 survey respondents: 347 HCPs, 319 men and 413 women, 105 of whom were trying to conceive (TTC). A total of 35 interviewees were purposively sampled to include 9 HCPs, 13 men and 13 women from the reproductive age range and of varying ethnic and educational backgrounds. Interview data were transcribed and analysed using the framework method. The proportion of HCPs correctly answering the survey knowledge questions was 47.1 (95% CI = 41.7%, 52.5%) compared to 44.4% for women (95% CI = 38.9%, 50.1%); 49.9% (95% CI = 39.0, 59.9%) for women TTC; and 32.5% (95% CI = 27.1%, 37.9%) for men. HCPs were ranked as the most trusted source for seeking fertility information. Overall HCPs did not demonstrate better fertility knowledge than lay participants, with inconsistencies regarding where responsibility lies for providing the right information to patients. HCPs need to improve their knowledge about fertility to help improve patient's fertility awareness.

Heterogeneous treatment effects analysis for social scientists: A review

Social scientists have long been interested in the varying responses to a specific intervention, motivating the enterprise of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) analysis. Over the past five decades, the rapid development of HTE methods, from conventional multiplicative interactions in linear models to explorations based on machine learning techniques, has been witnessed. This article presents a systematic review of major HTE methods, including multiplicative interaction modeling, generalized additive modeling, propensity-score-based methods, marginal treatment effect, separate LASSO constraints, causal trees, causal forests, Bayesian additive regression trees, and meta-learners (i.e., the S-learner, T-learner, X-learner, and R-learner). These methods, as described roughly in a chronological order to emphasize methodological developments, are addressed to highlight their respective strengths and limitations. Following an illustrative example, this article reflects on future methodological developments.

Is the Effect Larger in Group A or B? It Depends: Understanding Results From Nonlinear Probability Models

Demographers and other social scientists often study effect heterogeneity (defined here as differences in outcome-predictor associations across groups defined by the values of a third variable) to understand how inequalities evolve between groups or how groups differentially benefit from treatments. Yet answering the question "Is the effect larger in group A or group B?" is surprisingly difficult. In fact, the answer sometimes reverses across scales. For example, researchers might conclude that the effect of education on mortality is larger among women than among men if they quantify education's effect on an odds-ratio scale, but their conclusion might flip (to indicate a larger effect among men) if they instead quantify education's effect on a percentage-point scale. We illuminate this flipped-signs phenomenon in the context of nonlinear probability models, which were used in about one third of articles published in Demography in 2018-2019. Although methodologists are aware that flipped signs can occur, applied researchers have not integrated this insight into their work. We provide formal inequalities that researchers can use to easily determine if flipped signs are a problem in their own applications. We also share practical tips to help researchers handle flipped signs and, thus, generate clear and substantively correct descriptions of effect heterogeneity. Our findings advance researchers' ability to accurately characterize population variation.

Fertility History and Risk of Cognitive Impairment Among Older Parents in the United States

OBJECTIVES

I work from a gendered life-course perspective to examine the association between older parents' fertility history (i.e., timing and parity) and their risk of cognitive impairment in the United States.

METHODS

I analyze nationally representative data from 9 waves over 16 years of the Health and Retirement Study (2000-2016). The sample includes 14,543 respondents (6,108 men and 8,435 women) aged 50 and older at the baseline survey. I examine the relationship between parity, age at first birth, and age at last birth with risk of cognitive impairment using nonlinear discrete-time hazard models.

RESULTS

Adjusting for the effects of full covariates, there are U-shaped relationships between women's age at last birth and risk of cognitive impairment and between women's parity and risk of cognitive impairment. In the sensitivity tests, the relationships remain robust when sampling weights are applied, or mortality selection is corrected.

DISCUSSION

Fertility timing and parity are likely factors associated with the risk of cognitive impairment for older women. Understanding fertility history and its impact on cognition can help identify the most vulnerable subpopulations, so that more effective interventions can be made to improve cognitive functioning among older adults.

Heterogeneous Returns to Social Networks: Effects on Earnings and Job Satisfaction in the Chinese Labor Market

With the advancement of social network research over time, a research consensus has been reached that the use of social networks in job searching can provide positive returns. This study focused on the heterogeneity in the returns to social networks. Using Job Search and Social Networks (JSNET) survey data on urban residents of China, we examined the differences in the propensity to use social networks in job searching and the returns to social networks in terms of job seekers' earnings and job satisfaction using propensity score stratification and the heterogeneous treatment effects model (HTE model). The use of social networks in job searching was found to be nonrandomly distributed, and the propensity to use such networks varied according to job seeker characteristics. For job seekers with different propensities, the returns to social networks were also different. Moreover, there was negative selection in the instrumental effect of social network use in the job search process but positive selection in the expressive effect: the higher the propensity to use one's networks, the lower the income return to social networks and the higher the job satisfaction; the lower the propensity to use one's networks, the higher the income return and the lower the job satisfaction.

The ABC of reproductive intentions: a mixed-methods study exploring the spectrum of attitudes towards family building

STUDY QUESTION

What are the intentions of men and women of reproductive age in the UK regarding reproduction and family building?

SUMMARY ANSWER

We identified six main categories of people; Avoiders, Betweeners, Completers, Desirers, Expectants and Flexers, for whom reproduction education strategies should be tailored differently to suit intentions.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Several studies have highlighted poor fertility awareness across men and women of reproductive age. As the average age of first-time parents continues to rise, there has been a concerted effort from educators, healthcare professionals, charities, reproductive health groups and government policymakers, to improve fertility awareness. In order to ensure that these messages are effective and to deploy the best strategies, it is important to understand people's reproductive health needs. This study therefore aimed to explore different reproductive intentions to aid tailoring of information to help individuals and couples achieve their family building desires.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We conducted a mixed-method study via a UK-wide cross-sectional survey with 1082 participants and semi-structured interviews of 20 women and 15 men who agreed to follow-up interviews. Interviews lasted an hour on average. Ethics approval from UCL Research Ethics Committee.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Survey participants were recruited nationwide via online newspaper and social media adverts. Interviewees were purposely sampled to include men and women from the reproductive age range (18-45 years), varying ethnicity and education background. Survey data were analysed using the Minitab statistical software package. Interview data were transcribed and analysed using the framework method.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

From the survey and interviews, we identified six key categories of people, grouped alphabetically, in a user-friendly manner to highlight a spectrum of reproductive intentions: Avoiders describes respondents who have no children and do not want to have children in the future; Betweeners describes those who already have child(ren) and want more in the future but are not actively trying to conceive; Completers describes those who have child(ren) but do not want more; Desirers describes those who are actively trying to conceive or plan to have child(ren) in the future; Expectants describes those who were pregnant at the time of the study; and Flexers describes those who may or may not already have and are unsure but or open to having child(ren) in the future. Analysis of survey data identified the following proportions in our study: Avoiders, 4.7%; Betweeners, 11.3%; Completers, 13.6%; Desirers, 36.9%; Expectants, 4.1%; and Flexers 28.4% and 2.4% preferring not to answer. There was one 'other' group from qualitative analysis, who would like to have children in the future but were unsure whether they could or had changing views. We recommend classifying as 'Desirers' or 'Flexers' for the purposes of fertility education. A majority of the survey population were trying to get pregnant; were pregnant; or planning to have a child in the future-whether actively, passively or simply open to the idea, with interviews providing deep insights into their family building decision-making.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Due to the online recruitment method, there may be a bias towards more educated respondents.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

We developed a user-friendly, alphabetical categorization of reproductive intentions, which may be used by individuals, healthcare professionals, educators, special interest groups, charities and policymakers to support and enable individuals and couples in making informed choices to achieve their desired intentions, if and when they choose to start a family.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

There was no external funding for this study. The authors report no competing interests.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

The Positive Effect of Women's Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China

Despite pervasive evidence of more educated women having lower fertility, it remains unclear whether education reduces women's fertility. This study presents new evidence of the causal effect of women's education on fertility from China, where fertility has remained below the replacement level since the early 1990s. To account for endogeneity, the study exploits the timing and varying intensity of China's higher education expansion as exogenous sources of increase in women's education. Using data from China General Social Survey (2010-2012), findings show that each year of women's education induced by the higher education expansion increases the number of children ever born by 10%. According to the average marginal effects, each additional year of women's education increases the number of children ever born by 0.14, decreases the probability of having no children by 3 percentage points, and increases the probability of having two or more children by 4 percentage points. Two mechanisms drive the positive effect of education: first, education does not cause an increase in the mean age at first marriage; second, among ever-married women, education increases their demand for children. Findings from this study have important implications for China and other low-fertility developing countries.

Desired Fertility and Educational Aspirations: Adolescent Goals in Rapidly Changing Social Contexts

Objective

This article analyzes the relationship between educational aspirations and fertility aspirations early in the life course in three different settings.

Background

The negative relationship between women's educational attainment and childbearing is one of the most consistent associations in social science. Family scholars have a more limited understanding of the relationship between educational aspirations and fertility aspirations before childbearing or union formation.

Method

The authors use data collected in Jalisco, Mexico; Gaza, Mozambique; and Chitwan Valley, Nepal as part of the Family Migration and Early Life Outcomes project. They estimate nested Poisson regressions to model the relationship between adolescent educational aspirations and desired family size, controlling for individual- and household-level sociodemographic variables as well as adolescent beliefs and values.

Results

On average, adolescents who desire more education want fewer children in unadjusted models. In Mozambique and Nepal, this association is attenuated in models accounting for household characteristics. In Mexico, the association persists after incorporating these factors, but the inclusion of individual aspirations attenuates the relationship between educational aspirations and desired family size. In Mozambique, the association of educational aspirations with desired family size is moderated by gender.

Conclusion

As young people enter adolescence, their desires for education and childbearing are inversely related, but the mechanisms driving this association vary across contexts. This variation may be related to linkages between education, social status, and family values.

OUP accepted manuscript

STUDY QUESTION

What are the intentions of men and women of reproductive age in the UK regarding reproduction and family building?

SUMMARY ANSWER

We identified six main categories of people; Avoiders, Betweeners, Completers, Desirers, Expectants and Flexers, for whom reproduction education strategies should be tailored differently to suit intentions.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Several studies have highlighted poor fertility awareness across men and women of reproductive age. As the average age of first-time parents continues to rise, there has been a concerted effort from educators, healthcare professionals, charities, reproductive health groups and government policymakers, to improve fertility awareness. In order to ensure that these messages are effective and to deploy the best strategies, it is important to understand people’s reproductive health needs. This study therefore aimed to explore different reproductive intentions to aid tailoring of information to help individuals and couples achieve their family building desires.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We conducted a mixed-method study via a UK-wide cross-sectional survey with 1082 participants and semi-structured interviews of 20 women and 15 men who agreed to follow-up interviews. Interviews lasted an hour on average. Ethics approval from UCL Research Ethics Committee.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Survey participants were recruited nationwide via online newspaper and social media adverts. Interviewees were purposely sampled to include men and women from the reproductive age range (18–45 years), varying ethnicity and education background. Survey data were analysed using the Minitab statistical software package. Interview data were transcribed and analysed using the framework method.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

From the survey and interviews, we identified six key categories of people, grouped alphabetically, in a user-friendly manner to highlight a spectrum of reproductive intentions: Avoiders describes respondents who have no children and do not want to have children in the future; Betweeners describes those who already have child(ren) and want more in the future but are not actively trying to conceive; Completers describes those who have child(ren) but do not want more; Desirers describes those who are actively trying to conceive or plan to have child(ren) in the future; Expectants describes those who were pregnant at the time of the study; and Flexers describes those who may or may not already have and are unsure but or open to having child(ren) in the future. Analysis of survey data identified the following proportions in our study: Avoiders, 4.7%; Betweeners, 11.3%; Completers, 13.6%; Desirers, 36.9%; Expectants, 4.1%; and Flexers 28.4% and 2.4% preferring not to answer. There was one ‘other’ group from qualitative analysis, who would like to have children in the future but were unsure whether they could or had changing views. We recommend classifying as ‘Desirers’ or ‘Flexers’ for the purposes of fertility education. A majority of the survey population were trying to get pregnant; were pregnant; or planning to have a child in the future—whether actively, passively or simply open to the idea, with interviews providing deep insights into their family building decision-making.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Due to the online recruitment method, there may be a bias towards more educated respondents.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

We developed a user-friendly, alphabetical categorization of reproductive intentions, which may be used by individuals, healthcare professionals, educators, special interest groups, charities and policymakers to support and enable individuals and couples in making informed choices to achieve their desired intentions, if and when they choose to start a family.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

There was no external funding for this study. The authors report no competing interests.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Heterogeneous returns to college over the life course

College graduates earn higher wages than high school graduates by age 30. Among women, the advantages of a college degree decline somewhat as they age, although they are still substantial at age 50; for men, the advantage of a college degree grows throughout the life cycle. Most previous research on returns to higher education has focused on income at a single point in time or averaged over multiple years; our contribution is to study how returns vary by age. We also document how these patterns vary by the propensity of graduating from college. We find modest wage returns for mid-propensity college graduates, but large returns for low-propensity and, for men, high-propensity college graduates. Our results rely on propensity score–based matching combined with multilevel growth curve models applied to data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort.

Propensity score methods for merging observational and experimental datasets

We consider how to merge a limited amount of data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) into a much larger set of data from an observational data base (ODB), to estimate an average causal treatment effect. Our methods are based on stratification. The strata are defined in terms of effect moderators as well as propensity scores estimated in the ODB. Data from the RCT are placed into the strata they would have occupied, had they been in the ODB instead. We assume that treatment differences are comparable in the two data sources. Our first "spiked-in" method simply inserts the RCT data into their corresponding ODB strata. We also consider a data-driven convex combination of the ODB and RCT treatment effect estimates within each stratum. Using the delta method and simulations, we identify a bias problem with the spiked-in estimator that is ameliorated by the convex combination estimator. We apply our methods to data from the Women's Health Initiative, a study of thousands of postmenopausal women which has both observational and experimental data on hormone therapy (HT). Using half of the RCT to define a gold standard, we find that a version of the spiked-in estimator yields lower-MSE estimates of the causal impact of HT on coronary heart disease than would be achieved using either a small RCT or the observational component on its own.

Is College Completion Associated with Better Cognition in Later Life for People Who Are the Least, or Most, Likely to Obtain a Bachelor's Degree?

OBJECTIVES

Drawing on insights from theorizing on cumulative dis/advantage (CDA), we aimed to advance understanding of educational attainment as a protective factor for later-life cognition by examining whether associations between obtaining a bachelor's degree and later-life cognition differ according to individuals' likelihood of completing college based on characteristics in adolescence.

METHODS

We conducted a propensity score analysis with data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS). Measures to predict college completion were assessed prospectively in adolescence, and a global measure of later-life cognition was based on cognitive assessments at age 65.

RESULTS

College completion by age 25 (vs high school only) was associated with better later-life cognition for both men and women. Among men specifically, associations were stronger for those who were less likely as adolescents to complete college.

DISCUSSION

Results indicate the utility of a CDA perspective for investigating the implications of interconnected early life risk and protective factors for later-life cognition, as well as ways in which college education can both contribute to, as well as mitigate, processes of CDA.

A Research Note on the Convergence of Childlessness Rates Between Women with Secondary and Tertiary Education in the United States

A gap in childlessness rates between women with and without tertiary education in low-fertility settings has been well documented by scholars. However, in the United States, high rates of childlessness are declining for women with tertiary education. Will this current trend lead to a closing of the gap in childlessness across educational subgroups in this country? We answer this question using data from the Current Population Survey from 1976 through 2018. We present population-level trends in permanent childlessness by level of education and estimate the differences in the prevalence of childlessness across educational subgroups. Our findings indicate that the rates of childlessness for women aged 40-44 with tertiary education in the United States are the lowest they have been in over three decades and that rates of childlessness are converging among women with secondary and tertiary education. The declines in childlessness rates and the convergence in childlessness rates between women with secondary and tertiary education are observed for all of the three largest race/ethnicity sub-populations of American women: non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic women. This report contributes to the emerging literature on the convergence of childlessness rates across sub-populations of women with different levels of educational attainment, which questions the well-established observation that there is a positive relationship between education and childlessness.

Heavy Episodic Drinking in Early Adulthood: How Parents' Education Contextualizes the Effects of College Status

Young adults who transition to college are at particular risk of heavy episodic drinking (HED), as they consume more alcohol than their same-aged peers who do not attend college. Yet the link between college attendance and HED during young adulthood may vary depending on social class origins. Building on life course and socio-structural perspectives that suggest that status characteristics give meaning to role transitions in ways that shape young adults' drinking behavior, this study situates the risk of HED within the sociological context of educational attainment, and examines how parents' education conditions the relationship between young adults' college status and HED. We suggest that the odds of HED are higher when a young adult's college status is "off-diagonal"-incongruent with her/his parents' educational attainment. Using data from Waves I and III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health for a sample of 13,526 young adults, stratified by sex, results indicate that being off-diagonal increases the odds of HED, but not for everyone. Females whose parents have higher levels of education but who themselves do not attend college, and those whose parents have low levels of education but who themselves attend four-year colleges, have higher odds of HED. The results for males show no significant interactions between parents' education and own college status. For both females and males, there are pronounced racial/ethnic differences in HED odds, after controlling for educational mismatch. Findings suggest that HED policies targeting the archetypal four-year-college attending male should be expanded to other groups.

Parents' Marital Quality and Children's Transition to Adulthood

Unique longitudinal measures from Nepal allow us to link both mothers' and fathers' reports of their marital relationships with a subsequent long-term record of their children's behaviors. We focus on children's educational attainment and marriage timing because these two dimensions of the transition to adulthood have wide-ranging, long-lasting consequences. We find that children whose parents report strong marital affection and less spousal conflict attain higher levels of education and marry later than children whose parents do not. Furthermore, these findings are independent of each other and of multiple factors known to influence children's educational attainment and marriage timing. These intriguing results support theories pointing toward the long-term intergenerational consequences of variations in multiple dimensions of parents' marriages.

Higher exposure, lower vulnerability? The curious case of education, gender discrimination, and Women's health

Workplace gender discrimination persists in American society and women's experiences of discrimination are linked to diminished mental and physical well-being. While higher socioeconomic status (SES) decreases exposure to a number of work-related stressors, research suggests higher SES may also be associated with increased rates of perceived gender discrimination at work. We conceptualize educational attainment as a "metamechanism" that shapes women's work lives, family lives, as well as their ideologies. We argue that these factors in turn structure women's exposure and vulnerability to gender discrimination. We assess the influence of educational attainment on women's perceptions of workplace discrimination, as well as its health consequences, by analyzing national data from the 2002-2014 General Social Surveys. Our analyses show that women with high levels of education are more likely than women with lower levels of education to work full-time and in well-compensated, male-dominated occupations, and it is in these contexts where women are most likely to perceive gender discrimination. While educational attainment is associated with increased reports of workplace gender discrimination, it also sometimes provides women with resources that buffer its negative health consequences. For women with lower levels of education, perceived gender discrimination is associated with worse mental health, lower quality sleep, less happiness, and lower job satisfaction, but these particular health tolls diminish or disappear at higher levels of education. Our results shed light on the multi-level processes through which gender and education work together to structure health outcomes.

Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States

In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists have anticipated that economic recovery in the United States, characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur a reversal of declining fertility trends. However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes in U.S. labor markets have prolonged the financial uncertainty that leads women and couples to delay or forgo childbearing. Combining statistical and survey data with restricted-use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFRs) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the 2006-2014 period. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition-specifically, the loss of manufacturing and other goods-producing businesses-have a larger effect on TFRs than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Because structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time-in contrast to unemployment rates, which fluctuate with economic cycles-further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.

Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States

In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists have anticipated that economic recovery in the United States, characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur a reversal of declining fertility trends. However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes in U.S. labor markets have prolonged the financial uncertainty that leads women and couples to delay or forgo childbearing. Combining statistical and survey data with restricted-use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFRs) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the 2006-2014 period. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition-specifically, the loss of manufacturing and other goods-producing businesses-have a larger effect on TFRs than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Because structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time-in contrast to unemployment rates, which fluctuate with economic cycles-further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.

Trends in Childlessness Among Highly Educated Men in Sweden

Among men with post-secondary degrees in Sweden, one in four are childless by age 45, and this level has been constant over time (in this study, for men born 1956–1972). This high level of childlessness is somewhat surprising in the context of a significant gender imbalance among the highly educated (and thus the relative scarcity of highly educated men). In this study, I examine differences in childlessness among the highly educated by studying how educational prestige, social class, and income are associated with the likelihood of becoming a father. Higher income and social class background are positively associated with fatherhood, and this association has not changed over time. Educational prestige (higher degrees, or degrees from traditional universities) is not positively associated with fatherhood, while 2-year degrees have become more positively associated with fatherhood over time. The findings of this study suggest that socioeconomic resources are important for men's family formation in Sweden compared to educational resources, contrary to expectations from educational homophily and partner market perspectives.

Women's Progress for Men's Gain? Gender-Specific Changes in the Return to Education as Measured by Family Standard of Living, 1990 to 2009-2011

This study investigates gender-specific changes in the total financial return to education among persons of prime working ages (35-44 years) using U.S. Census data from 1990 and 2000, and the 2009-2011 American Community Survey. We define the total financial return to education as the family standard of living as measured by family income adjusted for family size. Our results indicate that women experienced significant progress in educational attainment and labor market outcomes over this time period. Ironically, married women's progress in education and personal earnings has led to greater improvement in the family standard of living for married men than for women themselves. Gender-specific changes in assortative mating are mostly responsible for this paradoxical trend. Because the number of highly educated women exceeds the number of highly educated men in the marriage market, the likelihood of educational marrying up has substantially increased for men over time while women's likelihood has decreased. Sensitivity analyses show that the greater improvement in the family standard of living for men than for women is not limited to prime working-age persons but is also evident in the general population. Consequently, women's return to education through marriage declined while men's financial gain through marriage increased considerably.

Low-income Childless Young Adults' Marriage and Fertility Frameworks

We investigate how low-income young adults without children understand marriage and fertility. Data come from the Becoming Partners and Parents Study (N=69) a qualitative study of African-American adults ages 18-22 in a midsize southern city. This is the first study to analyze young, low-income, childless and unmarried Black respondents' frameworks (i.e., internal understandings of the world) of marriage and fertility. In contrast to research conducted on parents, our research on childless adults indicated a narrative in which there were close connections between marriage and fertility and an economic-bar adhered to both marriage and childbearing. Respondents also believed that childbearing was meaningful and provided purpose, but that it was morally questionable if the parent was not financially stable. Our results suggest that prior findings related to meanings of family formation and childbearing for low-income parents may not extend to those without children.

Heterogeneous treatment effects of speed cameras on road safety

This paper analyses how the effects of fixed speed cameras on road casualties vary across sites with different characteristics and evaluates the criteria for selecting camera sites. A total of 771 camera sites and 4787 potential control sites are observed for a period of 9 years across England. Site characteristics such as road class, crash history and site length are combined into a single index, referred to as a propensity score. We first estimate the average effect at each camera site using propensity score matching. The effects are then estimated as a function of propensity scores using local polynomial regression. The results show that the reduction in personal injury collisions ranges from 10% to 40% whilst the average effect is 25.9%, indicating that the effects of speed cameras are not uniform across camera sites and are dependent on site characteristics, as measured by propensity scores. We further evaluate the criteria for selecting camera sites in the UK by comparing the effects at camera sites meeting and not meeting the criteria. The results show that camera sites which meet the criteria perform better in reducing casualties, implying the current site selection criteria are rational.

How Early Life Religious Exposure Relates to the Timing of First Birth

This paper examines intermediary processes explaining how religious socialization and involvement early in life are related to the timing of first births for women in the United States. The theory of conjunctural action forms the basis for hypotheses for how religious schema and materials operate to influence birth timing. Using the NLSY79 data and event history methods, the study finds evidence for expected family size, work-family gender ideology, educational attainment and enrollment, cohabitation, and age at marriage as mediators of associations between early life religious exposure (affiliation and attendance) and the timing of nonmaritally and maritally conceived first births. These findings corroborate other research identifying the long reach of religious socialization and involvement in youth, elucidate some of the pathways for these connections, and motivate further work to understand linkages between religion and family behaviors in the United States.

And Their Children after Them? The Effect of College on Educational Reproduction

Conventional analyses of social mobility and status reproduction retrospectively compare an outcome of individuals to a characteristic of their parents. By ignoring the mechanisms of family formation and excluding childless individuals, conventional approaches introduce selection bias into estimates of how characteristics in one generation affect an outcome in the next. The prospective approach introduced here integrates the effects of college on marriage and fertility into the reproduction of educational outcomes. Marginal structural models with inverse probability of treatment weighting are used with data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study to estimate the causal effect of pathways linking graduating from college with having a child who graduates from college. Results show that college increases male graduates' probability of having a child who completes college; for female graduates there is no effect. The gender distinction is largely explained by the negative effects of college on women's likelihood to marry and have children.

Can't afford a baby? Debt and young Americans

This article explores the role of personal debt in the transition to parenthood. We analyze data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth-1997 cohort and find that for the generation coming of age in the 2000s, student loans delay fertility for women, particularly at very high levels of debt. Home mortgages and credit card debt, in contrast, appear to be precursors to parenthood. These results indicate that different forms of debt have different implications for early adulthood transitions: whereas consumer loans or home mortgages immediately increase access to consumption goods, there is often a significant delay between the accrual and realization of benefits for student loans. The double-edged nature of debt as both barrier and facilitator to life transitions highlights the importance of looking at debt both as a monetary issue and also as a carrier of social meanings.

Education and Lifetime Earnings in the United States

Differences in lifetime earnings by educational attainment have been of great research and policy interest. Although a large literature examines earnings differences by educational attainment, research on lifetime earnings--which refers to total accumulated earnings from entry into the labor market until retirement--remains limited because of the paucity of adequate data. Using data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal tax earnings as recorded by the Social Security Administration, we estimate the 50-year work career effects of education on lifetime earnings for men and women. By overcoming the purely synthetic cohort approach, our results provide a more realistic appraisal of actual patterns of lifetime earnings. Detailed estimates are provided for gross lifetime earnings by education; net lifetime earnings after controlling for covariates associated with the probability of obtaining a bachelor's degree; and the net present 50-year lifetime value of education at age 20. In addition, we provide estimates that include individuals with zero earnings and disability. We also assess the adequacy of the purely synthetic cohort approach, which uses age differences in earnings observed in cross-sectional surveys to approximate lifetime earnings. Overall, our results confirm the persistent positive effects of higher education on earnings over different stages of the work career and over a lifetime, but also reveal notably smaller net effects on lifetime earnings compared with previously reported estimates. We discuss the implications of these and other findings.

Variation in the Protective Effect of Higher Education Against Depression

Numerous studies document that higher education is associated with a reduced likelihood of depression. The protective effects of higher education, however, are known to vary across population subgroups. This study tests competing theories for who is likely to obtain a greater protective benefit from a college degree against depression through an analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health and recently developed methods for analyzing heterogeneous treatment effects involving the use of propensity scores. The analysis examines how the effects of two "treatments" (at least some college education and attaining at least a four-year college degree) on latent depressive symptomology vary by background disadvantage, as indicated by having a low propensity for completing some college or attaining a four-year college degree. Results indicate that people from disadvantaged backgrounds realize a greater protective effect of higher education, either completing some college or attaining a four-year degree, against depressive symptomology than people from advantaged backgrounds. This pattern is more pronounced for people who attain at least a four-year degree than for people who complete at least some college education.

Ethnic variations in immigrant poverty exit and female employment: the missing link

Despite widespread interest in poverty among recent immigrants and female immigrant employment, research on the link between the two is limited. This study evaluates the effect of recently arrived immigrant women's employment on the exit from family poverty and considers the implications for ethnic differences in poverty exit. It uses the bivariate probit model and the Fairlie decomposition technique to analyze data from the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada (LSIC), a nationally representative survey of immigrants arriving in Canada, 2000-2001. Results show that the employment of recently arrived immigrant women makes a notable contribution to lifting families out of poverty. Moreover, the wide ethnic variations in the probability of exit from poverty between European and non-European groups are partially explained by the lower employment rates among non-European women. The results suggest that the equal earner/female breadwinner model applies to low-income recent immigrant families in general, but the male breadwinner model explains the low probability of poverty exit among select non-European groups whose female employment rates are notably low.

Conditional health-related benefits of higher education: an assessment of compensatory versus accumulative mechanisms

A college degree is associated with a range of health-related benefits, but the effects of higher education are known to vary across different population subgroups. Competing theories have been proposed for whether people from more or less advantaged backgrounds or circumstances will gain greater health-related benefits from a college degree. This study draws on data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) and recently developed models for analyzing heterogeneous treatment effects to examine how the effect of obtaining a college degree on the self-rated health of young adults varies across the likelihood of obtaining a college degree, a summary measure of advantage/disadvantage. Results indicate that a college degree has a greater effect on self-rated health for people from advantaged backgrounds. This finding differs from two recent studies, and possible reasons for the contrasting findings are discussed.

Job displacement among single mothers: effects on children's outcomes in young adulthood

Given the recent era of economic upheaval, studying the effects of job displacement has seldom been so timely and consequential. Despite a large literature associating displacement with worker well-being, relatively few studies focus on the effects of parental displacement on child well-being, and fewer still focus on implications for children of single-parent households. Moreover, notwithstanding a large literature on the relationship between single motherhood and children's outcomes, research on intergenerational effects of involuntary employment separations among single mothers is limited. Using 30 years of nationally representative panel data and propensity score matching methods, the authors find significant negative effects of job displacement among single mothers on children's educational attainment and social-psychological well-being in young adulthood. Effects are concentrated among older children and children whose mothers had a low likelihood of displacement, suggesting an important role for social stigma and relative deprivation in the effects of socioeconomic shocks on child well-being.

Using Discrete-time Event History Fertility Models to Simulate Total Fertility Rates and Other Fertility Measures

Event history models, also known as hazard models, are commonly used in analyses of fertility. One drawback of event history models is that the conditional probabilities (hazards) estimated by event history models do not readily translate into summary measures, particularly for models of repeatable events, like childbirth. In this paper, we describe how to translate the results of discrete-time event history models of all births into well-known summary fertility measures: simulated age- and parity-specific fertility rates, parity progression ratios (PPRs), and the total fertility rate (TFR). The method incorporates all birth intervals, but permits the hazard functions to vary across parities. It also can simulate values for groups defined by both fixed and time-varying covariates, such as marital or employment life histories. We demonstrate the method using an example from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) and provide an accompanying data file and Stata program.

Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects with Observational Data

Individuals differ not only in their background characteristics, but also in how they respond to a particular treatment, intervention, or stimulation. In particular, treatment effects may vary systematically by the propensity for treatment. In this paper, we discuss a practical approach to studying heterogeneous treatment effects as a function of the treatment propensity, under the same assumption commonly underlying regression analysis: ignorability. We describe one parametric method and two non-parametric methods for estimating interactions between treatment and the propensity for treatment. For the first method, we begin by estimating propensity scores for the probability of treatment given a set of observed covariates for each unit and construct balanced propensity score strata; we then estimate propensity score stratum-specific average treatment effects and evaluate a trend across them. For the second method, we match control units to treated units based on the propensity score and transform the data into treatment-control comparisons at the most elementary level at which such comparisons can be constructed; we then estimate treatment effects as a function of the propensity score by fitting a non-parametric model as a smoothing device. For the third method, we first estimate non-parametric regressions of the outcome variable as a function of the propensity score separately for treated units and for control units and then take the difference between the two non-parametric regressions. We illustrate the application of these methods with an empirical example of the effects of college attendance on womens fertility.

Variation in the Relationship Between Education and Marriage: Marriage Market Mismatch?

Educational expansion has led to greater diversity in the social backgrounds of college students. We ask how schooling interacts with this diversity to influence marriage formation among men and women. Relying on data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N = 3208), we use a propensity score approach to group men and women into social strata and multilevel event history models to test differences in the effects of college attendance across strata. We find a statistically significant, positive trend in the effects of college attendance across strata, with the largest effects of college on first marriage among the more advantaged and the smallest-indeed, negative-effects among the least advantaged men and women. These findings appear consistent with a mismatch in the marriage market between individuals' education and their social backgrounds.