Ecological Networks in a Changing Climate

Properties of vertebrate predator-prey networks in the high Arctic

Predation is an important ecological process that can significantly impact the maintenance of ecosystem services. In arctic environments, the relative ecological importance of predation is thought to be increasing due to climate change, partly because of increased productivity with rising temperatures. Therefore, understanding predator-prey interactions in arctic ecosystems is vital for the sustainable management of these northern regions. Network theory provides a framework for quantifying the structures of ecological interactions. In this study, we use dietary observations on mammalian and avian predators in a high arctic region, including isolated peninsulas on Ellesmere Island and north Greenland, to construct bipartite trophic networks. We quantify the complexity, specialization, and nested as well as modular structures of these networks and also determine if these properties varied among the peninsulas. Mammal prey remains were the dominant diet item for all predators, but there was spatial variation in diet composition among peninsulas. The predator-prey networks were less complex, had more specialized interactions, and were more nested and more modular than random expectations. However, the networks displayed only moderate levels of modularity. Predator species had less specialized interactions with prey than prey had with predators. All network properties differed among the peninsulas, which highlights that ecosystems often show complex responses to environmental characteristics. We suggest that gaining knowledge about spatial variation in the characteristics of predator-prey interactions can enhance our ability to manage ecosystems exposed to environmental perturbations, particularly in high arctic environments subject to rapid environmental change.

The role of phenotypic plasticity in shaping ecological networks

Plasticity-mediated changes in interaction dynamics and structure may scale up and affect the ecological network in which the plastic species are embedded. Despite their potential relevance for understanding the effects of plasticity on ecological communities, these effects have seldom been analysed. We argue here that, by boosting the magnitude of intra-individual phenotypic variation, plasticity may have three possible direct effects on the interactions that the plastic species maintains with other species in the community: may expand the interaction niche, may cause a shift from one interaction niche to another or may even cause the colonization of a new niche. The combined action of these three factors can scale to the community level and eventually expresses itself as a modification in the topology and functionality of the entire ecological network. We propose that this causal pathway can be more widespread than previously thought and may explain how interaction niches evolve quickly in response to rapid changes in environmental conditions. The implication of this idea is not solely eco-evolutionary but may also help to understand how ecological interactions rewire and evolve in response to global change.

The biogeography of colonial volvocine algae in the Yangtze River basin

Colonial Volvocine Algae (CVA) are of great significance for biological evolution study, but little is presently known about their biogeographic distribution. Meanwhile, with the impact of climate change and human activities, their effects on the distribution and structures of CVA communities also remain largely unknown. Herein, the biogeography of CVA was investigated in the Yangtze River basin, 172 sampling sites were set up within a catchment area of 1,800,000  km², and the distribution and community composition of CVA were studied using single-molecule real-time sequencing and metabarcoding technology based on the full-length 18S sequence. In 76 sampling sites, CVA was discovered in two families, eight genera, and nine species. Eudorina and Colemanosphaera were the main dominant genus. Based on the result of the random forest model and Eta-squared value, the distribution of CVA was significantly influenced by water temperature, altitude, and TP. CVA could be suitably distributed at an average water temperature of 22°C, an average TP concentration of 0.06 mg/L, and an altitude lower than 3,920  m. To assess the effects of anthropogenic pollution on the structures and co-occurrence patterns of CVA communities, we used a stress index calculated by 10 environmental factors to divide the CVA community into low and high pollution group. Network analysis showed that greater pollution levels would have a negative impact on the co-occurrence patterns and diversity of the CVA community. Finally, to study the scientific distribution of CVA under current and future climate change scenarios, we analyzed the climate suitability regionalization of CVA with the maximum entropy model based on 19 climatic factors and four climate scenarios from 2021 to 2040 published by CMIP6. Our results reveal the suitable areas of CVA, and temperature is an important environmental factor affecting the distribution of CVA. With the change of climate in the future, the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Chaohu Lake, and Taihu Lake are still highly suitable areas for CVA, but the habitat of CVA may be fragmented, and more thorough temporal surveys and sampling of the sediment or mud are needed to investigate the fragmentation of CVA.

Unveiling the complexity and ecological function of aquatic macrophyte-animal networks in coastal ecosystems

Network theory offers innovative tools to explore the complex ecological mechanisms regulating species associations and interactions. Although interest in ecological networks has grown steadily during the last two decades, the application of network approaches has been unequally distributed across different study systems: while some kinds of interactions (e.g. plant-pollinator and host-parasite) have been extensively investigated, others remain relatively unexplored. Among the latter, aquatic macrophyte-animal associations in coastal environments have been largely neglected, despite their major role in littoral ecosystems. The ubiquity of macrophyte systems, their accessibility and multi-faceted ecological, economical and societal importance make macrophyte-animal systems an ideal subject for ecological network science. In fact, macrophyte-animal networks offer an aquatic counterpart to terrestrial plant-animal networks. In this review, we show how the application of network analysis to aquatic macrophyte-animal associations has the potential to broaden our understanding of how coastal ecosystems function. Network analysis can also provide a key to understanding how such ecosystems will respond to on-going and future threats from anthropogenic disturbance and environmental change. For this, we: (i) identify key issues that have limited the application of network theory and modelling to aquatic animal-macrophyte associations; (ii) illustrate through examples based on empirical data how network analysis can offer new insights on the complexity and functioning of coastal ecosystems; and (iii) provide suggestions for how to design future studies and establish this new research line into network ecology.

Using Food Webs and Metabolic Theory to Monitor, Model, and Manage Atlantic Salmon—A Keystone Species Under Threat

Populations of Atlantic salmon are crashing across most of its natural range: understanding the underlying causes and predicting these collapses in time to intervene effectively are urgent ecological and socioeconomic priorities. Current management techniques rely on phenomenological analyses of demographic population time-series and thus lack a mechanistic understanding of how and why populations may be declining. New multidisciplinary approaches are thus needed to capitalize on the long-term, large-scale population data that are currently scattered across various repositories in multiple countries, as well as marshaling additional data to understand the constraints on the life cycle and how salmon operate within the wider food web. Here, we explore how we might combine data and theory to develop the mechanistic models that we need to predict and manage responses to future change. Although we focus on Atlantic salmon—given the huge data resources that already exist for this species—the general principles developed here could be applied and extended to many other species and ecosystems.

Forecasting parasite sharing under climate change

Species are shifting their distributions in response to climate change. This geographic reshuffling may result in novel co-occurrences among species, which could lead to unseen biotic interactions, including the exchange of parasites between previously isolated hosts. Identifying potential new host-parasite interactions would improve forecasting of disease emergence and inform proactive disease surveillance. However, accurate predictions of future cross-species disease transmission have been hampered by the lack of a generalized approach and data availability. Here, we propose a framework to predict novel host-parasite interactions based on a combination of niche modelling of future host distributions and parasite sharing models. Using the North American ungulates as a proof of concept, we show this approach has high cross-validation accuracy in over 85% of modelled parasites and find that more than 34% of the host-parasite associations forecasted by our models have already been recorded in the literature. We discuss potential sources of uncertainty and bias that may affect our results and similar forecasting approaches, and propose pathways to generate increasingly accurate predictions. Our results indicate that forecasting parasite sharing in response to shifts in host geographic distributions allow for the identification of regions and taxa most susceptible to emergent pathogens under climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Thermal mismatches in biological rates determine trophic control and biomass distribution under warming

Temperature has numerous effects on the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. Yet, there is no general trend or consensus on the magnitude and directions of these effects. To fill this gap, we propose a mechanistic framework based on key biological rates that predicts how temperature influences biomass distribution and trophic control in food webs. We show that these predictions arise from thermal mismatches between biological rates and across trophic levels. We couple our theory with experimental data for a wide range of species and find that warming should lead to top-heavier terrestrial food chains and stronger top-down control in aquatic environments. We then derive predictions for the effects of temperature on herbivory and validate them with data on stream grazers. Our study provides a mechanistic explanation of thermal effects on consumer-resource systems which is crucial to better understand the biogeography and the consequences of global warming on trophic dynamics.

Novel feeding interactions amplify the impact of species redistribution on an Arctic food web

Species are redistributing globally in response to climate warming, impacting ecosystem functions and services. In the Barents Sea, poleward expansion of boreal species and a decreased abundance of Arctic species are causing a rapid borealization of the Arctic communities. This borealization might have profound consequences on the Arctic food web by creating novel feeding interactions between previously non co-occurring species. An early identification of new feeding links is crucial to predict their ecological impact. However, detection by traditional approaches, including stomach content and isotope analyses, although fundamental, cannot cope with the speed of change observed in the region, nor with the urgency of understanding the consequences of species redistribution for the marine ecosystem. In this study, we used an extensive food web (metaweb) with nearly 2,500 documented feeding links between 239 taxa coupled with a trait data set to predict novel feeding interactions and to quantify their potential impact on Arctic food web structure. We found that feeding interactions are largely determined by the body size of interacting species, although species foraging habitat and metabolic type are also important predictors. Further, we found that all boreal species will have at least one potential resource in the Arctic region should they redistribute therein. During 2014-2017, 11 boreal species were observed in the Arctic region of the Barents Sea. These incoming species, which are all generalists, change the structural properties of the Arctic food web by increasing connectance and decreasing modularity. In addition, these boreal species are predicted to initiate novel feeding interactions with the Arctic residents, which might amplify their impact on Arctic food web structure affecting ecosystem functioning and vulnerability. Under the ongoing species redistribution caused by environmental change, we propose merging a trait-based approach with ecological network analysis to efficiently predict the impacts of range-shifting species on food webs.

Assessment of congruence between co-occurrence and functional networks: A new framework for revealing community assembly rules

Describing how communities change over space and time is crucial to better understand and predict the functioning of ecosystems. We propose a new methodological framework, based on network theory and modularity concept, to determine which type of mechanisms (i.e. deterministic versus stochastic processes) has the strongest influence on structuring communities. This framework is based on the computation and comparison of two networks: the co-occurrence (based on species abundances) and the functional networks (based on the species traits values). In this way we can assess whether the species belonging to a given functional group also belong to the same co-occurrence group. We adapted the Dg index of Gauzens et al. (2015) to analyze congruence between both networks. This offers the opportunity to identify which assembly rule(s) play(s) the major role in structuring the community. We illustrate our framework with two datasets corresponding to different faunal groups and ecosystems, and characterized by different scales (spatial and temporal scales). By considering both species abundance and multiple functional traits, our framework improves significantly the ability to discriminate the main assembly rules structuring the communities. This point is critical not only to understand community structuring but also its response to global changes and other disturbances.

Effects of Vegetation Strips, Fertilizer Levels and Varietal Resistance on the Integrated Management of Arthropod Biodiversity in a Tropical Rice Ecosystem

Integrated biodiversity management aims to conserve the beneficial species components of production ecosystems and reduce the impacts of pests. In 2011 and 2013, experiments were conducted at Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines, to compare arthropod communities in rice plots and on levees with and without vegetation strips. Vegetation strips included spontaneous weeds, sesame and okra (2011), or mung bean (2013). The plots were treated with one of three nitrogen levels and in one experiment were planted with planthopper-resistant (IR62) and susceptible (IR64) rice varieties. Parasitoids and predators of lepidopteran pests and of the ricebug, Leptocorisa oratorius, were more abundant in high-nitrogen rice plots where their prey/hosts also had highest densities. Planthoppers and leafhoppers were more abundant in low-nitrogen plots. Weedy and sesame/okra bunds provided habitat for a range of natural enemies including spiders, parasitoids and predatory bugs, but did not have higher pest numbers than cleared bunds. Higher abundances of the predator Cythorhinus lividipennis and higher parasitism of planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) eggs by Anagrus sp. were associated with sesame/okra bunds in late season rice plots. Mung bean also provided habitat for key predators and parasitoids that spilled over to adjacent rice; however, mung bean was also associated with higher numbers of lepidopteran and grain-sucking pests in the adjacent rice, albeit without increased damage to the rice. For ricebug in particular, damage was probably reduced by higher parasitoid:pest ratios adjacent to the vegetation strips. Varietal resistance and mung bean strips had an additive effect in reducing abundance of the planthopper Sogatella furcifera and the leafhopper Nephotettix virescens. Reduced numbers of these latter pests close to vegetation strips were often compensated for by other plant-sucking bugs, thereby increasing the intensity of potentially stabilizing interspecific interactions such as competition. We highlight the benefits of diversifying rice landscapes and the need to optimize vegetation strips, e.g., by including lepidopteran trap-plants, for intensive rice production systems.

Food-web interaction strength distributions are conserved by greater variation between than within predator-prey pairs

Species interactions in food webs are usually recognized as dynamic, varying across species, space, and time because of biotic and abiotic drivers. Yet food webs also show emergent properties that appear consistent, such as a skewed frequency distribution of interaction strengths (many weak, few strong). Reconciling these two properties requires an understanding of the variation in pairwise interaction strengths and its underlying mechanisms. We estimated stream sculpin feeding rates in three seasons at nine sites in Oregon to examine variation in trophic interaction strengths both across and within predator-prey pairs. Predator and prey densities, prey body mass, and abiotic factors were considered as putative drivers of within-pair variation over space and time. We hypothesized that consistently skewed interaction strength distributions could result if individual interaction strengths show relatively little variation, or alternatively, if interaction strengths vary but shift in ways that conserve their overall frequency distribution. Feeding rate distributions remained consistently and positively skewed across all sites and seasons. The mean coefficient of variation in feeding rates within each of 25 focal species pairs across surveys was less than half the mean coefficient of variation seen across species pairs within a survey. The rank order of feeding rates also remained conserved across streams, seasons and individual surveys. On average, feeding rates on each prey taxon nonetheless varied by a hundredfold, with some feeding rates showing more variation in space and others in time. In general, feeding rates increased with prey density and decreased with high stream flows and low water temperatures, although for nearly half of all species pairs, factors other than prey density explained the most variation. Our findings show that although individual interaction strengths exhibit considerable variation in space and time, they can nonetheless remain relatively consistent, and thus predictable, compared to the even larger variation that occurs across species pairs. These results highlight how the ecological scale of inference can strongly shape conclusions about interaction strength consistency and help reconcile how the skewed nature of interaction strength distributions can persist in highly dynamic food webs.

Diurnal Temperature Variation and Plants Drive Latitudinal Patterns in Seasonal Dynamics of Soil Microbial Community

Seasonality, an exogenous driver, motivates the biological and ecological temporal dynamics of animal and plant communities. Underexplored microbial temporal endogenous dynamics hinders the prediction of microbial response to climate change. To elucidate temporal dynamics of microbial communities, temporal turnover rates, phylogenetic relatedness, and species interactions were integrated to compare those of a series of forest ecosystems along latitudinal gradients. The seasonal turnover rhythm of microbial communities, estimated by the slope (w value) of similarity-time decay relationship, was spatially structured across the latitudinal gradient, which may be caused by a mixture of both diurnal temperature variation and seasonal patterns of plants. Statistical analyses revealed that diurnal temperature variation instead of average temperature imposed a positive and considerable effect alone and also jointly with plants. Due to higher diurnal temperature variation with more climatic niches, microbial communities might evolutionarily adapt into more dispersed phylogenetic assembly based on the standardized effect size of MNTD metric, and ecologically form higher community resistance and resiliency with stronger network interactions among species. Archaea and the bacterial groups of Chloroflexi, Alphaproteobacteria, and Deltaproteobacteria were sensitive to diurnal temperature variation with greater turnover rates at higher latitudes, indicating that greater diurnal temperature fluctuation imposes stronger selective pressure on thermal specialists, because bacteria and archaea, single-celled organisms, have extreme short generation period compared to animal and plant. Our findings thus illustrate that the dynamics of microbial community and species interactions are crucial to assess ecosystem stability to climate variations in an increased climatic variability era.

Modular structure in fish co-occurrence networks: A comparison across spatial scales and grouping methodologies

Network modules are used for diverse purposes, ranging from delineation of biogeographical provinces to the study of biotic interactions. We assess spatial scaling effects on modular structure, using a multi-step process to compare fish co-occurrence networks at three nested scales. We first detect modules with simulated annealing and use spatial clustering tests (interspecific distances among species' range centroids) to determine if modules consist of species with broadly overlapping ranges; strong spatial clustering may reflect environmental filtering, while absence of spatial clustering may reflect positive interspecific relationships (commensalism or mutualism). We then use non-hierarchical, multivariate cluster analysis as an alternative method to identify fish subgroups, we repeat spatial clustering tests for the multivariate clusters, then compare spatial clustering results among modules and clusters. Next, we compare species lists within modules and clusters, and estimate congruence as the proportion of species assigned to the same groups by the two methods. Finally, we use a well-documented nest associate complex (fishes that deposit eggs in the gravel nests of a common host) to assess whether strong within-group associations may, in fact, reflect positive interspecific relationships. At each scale, 2-4 network modules were detected but a consistent relationship between scale and the number of modules was not observed. Significant spatial clustering was detected at all scales for network modules and multivariate clusters but was less prevalent at smaller scales. Congruence between modules and clusters was always < 90% and generally decreased as the number of groups increased. At all scales, the complete nest associate complex was completely preserved within a single network module, but not within a single multivariate cluster. Collectively, our results suggest that network modules are promising tools for studying positive interactions and that smaller scales may be preferable in this research.

Zooming into plant-flower visitor networks: an individual trait-based approach

Understanding how ecological communities are structured is a major goal in ecology. Ecological networks representing interaction patterns among species have become a powerful tool to capture the mechanisms underlying plant-animal assemblages. However, these networks largely do not account for inter-individual variability and thus may be limiting our development of a clear mechanistic understanding of community structure. In this study, we develop a new individual-trait based approach to examine the importance of individual plant and pollinator functional size traits (pollinator thorax width and plant nectar holder depth) in mutualistic networks. We performed hierarchical cluster analyses to group interacting individuals into classes, according to their similarity in functional size. We then compared the structure of bee-flower networks where nodes represented either species identity or trait sets. The individual trait-based network was almost twice as nested as its species-based equivalent and it had a more symmetric linkage pattern resulting from of a high degree of size-matching. In conclusion, we show that by constructing individual trait-based networks we can reveal important patterns otherwise difficult to observe in species-based networks and thus improve our understanding of community structure. We therefore recommend using both trait-based and species-based approaches together to develop a clearer understanding of the properties of ecological networks.

Predator-prey mass ratio drives microbial activity under dry conditions in Sphagnum peatlands

Mid- to high-latitude peatlands are a major terrestrial carbon stock but become carbon sources during droughts, which are increasingly frequent as a result of climate warming. A critical question within this context is the sensitivity to drought of peatland microbial food webs. Microbiota drive key ecological and biogeochemical processes, but their response to drought is likely to impact these processes. Peatland food webs have, however, been little studied, especially the response of microbial predators. We studied the response of microbial predators (testate amoebae, ciliates, rotifers, and nematodes) living in Sphagnum moss carpet to droughts, and their influence on lower trophic levels and on related microbial enzyme activity. We assessed the impact of reduced water availability on microbial predators in two peatlands using experimental (Linje mire, Poland) and natural (Forbonnet mire, France) water level gradients, reflecting a sudden change in moisture regime (Linje), and a typically drier environment (Forbonnet). The sensitivity of different microbial groups to drought was size dependent; large sized microbiota such as testate amoebae declined most under dry conditions (-41% in Forbonnet and -80% in Linje). These shifts caused a decrease in the predator-prey mass ratio (PPMR). We related microbial enzymatic activity to PPMR; we found that a decrease in PPMR can have divergent effects on microbial enzymatic activity. In a community adapted to drier conditions, decreasing PPMR stimulated microbial enzyme activity, while in extreme drought experiment, it reduced microbial activity. These results suggest that microbial enzymatic activity resulting from food web structure is optimal only within a certain range of PPMR, and that different trophic mechanisms are involved in the response of peatlands to droughts. Our findings confirm the importance of large microbial consumers living at the surface of peatlands on the functioning of peatlands, and illustrate their value as early warning indicators of change.

Increased resource use efficiency amplifies positive response of aquatic primary production to experimental warming

Climate warming is affecting the structure and function of river ecosystems, including their role in transforming and transporting carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P). Predicting how river ecosystems respond to warming has been hindered by a dearth of information about how otherwise well-studied physiological responses to temperature scale from organismal to ecosystem levels. We conducted an ecosystem-level temperature manipulation to quantify how coupling of stream ecosystem metabolism and nutrient uptake responded to a realistic warming scenario. A ~3.3°C increase in mean water temperature altered coupling of C, N, and P fluxes in ways inconsistent with single-species laboratory experiments. Net primary production tripled during the year of experimental warming, while whole-stream N and P uptake rates did not change, resulting in 289% and 281% increases in autotrophic dissolved inorganic N and P use efficiency (UE), respectively. Increased ecosystem production was a product of unexpectedly large increases in mass-specific net primary production and autotroph biomass, supported by (i) combined increases in resource availability (via N mineralization and N₂ fixation) and (ii) elevated resource use efficiency, the latter associated with changes in community structure. These large changes in C and nutrient cycling could not have been predicted from the physiological effects of temperature alone. Our experiment provides clear ecosystem-level evidence that warming can shift the balance between C and nutrient cycling in rivers, demonstrating that warming will alter the important role of in-stream processes in C, N, and P transformations. Moreover, our results reveal a key role for nutrient supply and use efficiency in mediating responses of primary producers to climate warming.

Climate change could drive marine food web collapse through altered trophic flows and cyanobacterial proliferation

Global warming and ocean acidification are forecast to exert significant impacts on marine ecosystems worldwide. However, most of these projections are based on ecological proxies or experiments on single species or simplified food webs. How energy fluxes are likely to change in marine food webs in response to future climates remains unclear, hampering forecasts of ecosystem functioning. Using a sophisticated mesocosm experiment, we model energy flows through a species-rich multilevel food web, with live habitats, natural abiotic variability, and the potential for intra- and intergenerational adaptation. We show experimentally that the combined stress of acidification and warming reduced energy flows from the first trophic level (primary producers and detritus) to the second (herbivores), and from the second to the third trophic level (carnivores). Warming in isolation also reduced the energy flow from herbivores to carnivores, the efficiency of energy transfer from primary producers and detritus to herbivores and detritivores, and the living biomass of detritivores, herbivores, and carnivores. Whilst warming and acidification jointly boosted primary producer biomass through an expansion of cyanobacteria, this biomass was converted to detritus rather than to biomass at higher trophic levels—i.e., production was constrained to the base of the food web. In contrast, ocean acidification affected the food web positively by enhancing trophic flow from detritus and primary producers to herbivores, and by increasing the biomass of carnivores. Our results show how future climate change can potentially weaken marine food webs through reduced energy flow to higher trophic levels and a shift towards a more detritus-based system, leading to food web simplification and altered producer–consumer dynamics, both of which have important implications for the structuring of benthic communities.

Healthy marine ecosystems are crucial for people’s livelihoods and food production. Global climate stressors, such as warming and ocean acidification, can drastically impact the structure and function of marine food webs, diminishing the production of goods and services. Our ability to predict how future food webs will respond to a changing environment is limited by our understanding of species responses to climate change, which are often tested in isolation or in simplified experimental designs. More realistic predictions of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems requires consideration of entire species communities, including the species interactions that can buffer or exacerbate these impacts. We experimentally tested the effects of warming and acidification, both individually and in combination, on a benthic marine food web in a near-natural ecological setting. Energy flow from the first trophic level (primary producers and detritus) to the second (herbivores), and from the second to the third trophic level (carnivores) was quantified under these different regimes. We show that warming, either alone or in combination with acidification, can constrain productivity to the bottom of the food web by enhancing cyanobacterial biomass and reducing energy flow to higher trophic levels, thus lowering energy transfer efficiency between producers and consumers. In contrast, increased ocean acidification alone showed a positive effect on herbivores and carnivores. Our finding is important because it demonstrates that future warming could drive marine food web collapses to potentially simplified and less productive coastal systems.

Increasing temperature decreases the predatory effect of the intertidal shanny Lipophrys pholis on an amphipod prey

Interactions between Lipophrys pholis and its amphipod prey Echinogammarus marinus were used to investigate the effect of changing water temperatures, comparing current and predicted mean summer temperatures. Contrary to expectations, predator attack rates significantly decreased with increasing temperature. Handling times were significantly longer at 19° C than at 17 and 15° C and the maximum feeding estimate was significantly lower at 19° C than at 17° C. Functional-response type changed from a destabilizing type II to the more stabilizing type III with a temperature increase to 19° C. This suggests that a temperature increase can mediate refuge for prey at low densities. Predatory pressure by teleosts may be dampened by a large increase in temperature (here from 15 to 19° C), but a short-term and smaller temperature increase (to 17° C) may increase destabilizing resource consumption due to high maximum feeding rates; this has implications for the stability of important intertidal ecosystems during warming events.

Dispersal governs the reorganization of ecological networks under environmental change

Ecological networks, such as food webs, mutualist webs and host-parasite webs, are reorganizing as species abundances and spatial distributions shift in response to environmental change. Current theoretical expectations for how this reorganization will occur are available for competition or for parts of interaction networks, but these may not extend to more complex networks. Here we use metacommunity theory to develop new expectations for how complex networks will reorganize under environmental change, and show that dispersal is crucial for determining the degree to which networks will retain their composition and structure. When dispersal between habitat patches is low, all types of species interactions act as a strong determinant for whether species can colonize suitable habitats. This colonization resistance drives species turnover, which breaks apart current networks and leads to the formation of new networks. However, when dispersal rates are increased, colonists arrive in high abundance in habitats where they are well adapted, so interactions with resident species contribute less to colonization success. Dispersal ensures that species associations are maintained as they shift in space, so networks retain similar composition and structure. The crucial role of dispersal reinforces the need to manage habitat connectivity to sustain species and interaction diversity into the future.

Predicted rainfall changes disrupt trophic interactions in a tropical aquatic ecosystem

Changes in the distribution of rainfall and the occurrence of extreme rain events will alter the size and persistence of aquatic ecosystems. Such alterations may affect the structure of local aquatic communities in terms of species composition, and by altering species interactions. In many aquatic ecosystems, leaf litter sustains detrital food webs and could regulate the responses of communities to changes in rainfall. Few empirical studies have focused on how rainfall changes will affect aquatic communities and none have evaluated if basal resource diversity can increase resistance to such rainfall effects. In this study, we used water-holding terrestrial bromeliads, a tropical aquatic ecosystem, to test how predicted rainfall changes and litter diversity may affect community composition and trophic interactions. We used structural equation modeling to investigate the combined effects of rainfall changes and litter diversity on trophic interactions. We demonstrated that changes in rainfall disrupted trophic relationships, even though there were only minor direct effects on species abundance, richness, and community composition. Litter diversity was not able to reduce the impact of changes in rainfall on trophic interactions. We suggest that changes in rainfall can alter the way in which species interact with each other, decreasing the linkages among trophic groups. Such reductions in biotic interactions under climate change will have critical consequences for the functioning of tropical aquatic ecosystems.

Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability

While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention.

Interactions between temperature and nutrients across levels of ecological organization

Temperature and nutrient availability play key roles in controlling the pathways and rates at which energy and materials move through ecosystems. These factors have also changed dramatically on Earth over the past century as human activities have intensified. Although significant effort has been devoted to understanding the role of temperature and nutrients in isolation, less is known about how these two factors interact to influence ecological processes. Recent advances in ecological stoichiometry and metabolic ecology provide a useful framework for making progress in this area, but conceptual synthesis and review are needed to help catalyze additional research. Here, we examine known and potential interactions between temperature and nutrients from a variety of physiological, community, and ecosystem perspectives. We first review patterns at the level of the individual, focusing on four traits--growth, respiration, body size, and elemental content--that should theoretically govern how temperature and nutrients interact to influence higher levels of biological organization. We next explore the interactive effects of temperature and nutrients on populations, communities, and food webs by synthesizing information related to community size spectra, biomass distributions, and elemental composition. We use metabolic theory to make predictions about how population-level secondary production should respond to interactions between temperature and resource supply, setting up qualitative predictions about the flows of energy and materials through metazoan food webs. Last, we examine how temperature-nutrient interactions influence processes at the whole-ecosystem level, focusing on apparent vs. intrinsic activation energies of ecosystem processes, how to represent temperature-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models, and patterns with respect to nutrient uptake and organic matter decomposition. We conclude that a better understanding of interactions between temperature and nutrients will be critical for developing realistic predictions about ecological responses to multiple, simultaneous drivers of global change, including climate warming and elevated nutrient supply.

From projected species distribution to food-web structure under climate change

Climate change is inducing deep modifications in species geographic ranges worldwide. However, the consequences of such changes on community structure are still poorly understood, particularly the impacts on food-web properties. Here, we propose a new framework, coupling species distribution and trophic models, to predict climate change impacts on food-web structure across the Mediterranean Sea. Sea surface temperature was used to determine the fish climate niches and their future distributions. Body size was used to infer trophic interactions between fish species. Our projections reveal that 54 fish species of 256 endemic and native species included in our analysis would disappear by 2080-2099 from the Mediterranean continental shelf. The number of feeding links between fish species would decrease on 73.4% of the continental shelf. However, the connectance of the overall fish web would increase on average, from 0.26 to 0.29, mainly due to a differential loss rate of feeding links and species richness. This result masks a systematic decrease in predator generality, estimated here as the number of prey species, from 30.0 to 25.4. Therefore, our study highlights large-scale impacts of climate change on marine food-web structure with potential deep consequences on ecosystem functioning. However, these impacts will likely be highly heterogeneous in space, challenging our current understanding of climate change impact on local marine ecosystems.

Strong impact of temporal resolution on the structure of an ecological network

Most ecological networks are analysed as static structures, where all observed species and links are present simultaneously. However, this is over-simplified, because networks are temporally dynamical. We resolved an arctic, entire-season plant-flower visitor network into a temporal series of 1-day networks and compared the properties with its static equivalent based on data pooled over the entire season. Several properties differed. The nested link pattern in the static network was blurred in the dynamical version, because the characteristic long nestedness tail of flower–visitor specialists got stunted in the dynamical networks. This tail comprised a small food web of pollinators, parasitoids and hyper-parasitoids. The dynamical network had strong time delays in the transmission of direct and indirect effects among species. Twenty percent of all indirect links were impossible in the dynamical network. Consequently, properties and thus also robustness of ecological networks cannot be deduced from the static topology alone.

A cure for the plague of parameters: constraining models of complex population dynamics with allometries

A major goal of ecology is to discover how dynamics and structure of multi-trophic ecological communities are related. This is difficult, because whole-community data are limited and typically comprise only a snapshot of a community instead of a time series of dynamics, and mathematical models of complex system dynamics have a large number of unmeasured parameters and therefore have been only tenuously related to real systems. These are related problems, because long time-series, if they were commonly available, would enable inference of parameters. The resulting 'plague of parameters' means most studies of multi-species population dynamics have been very theoretical. Dynamical models parametrized using physiological allometries may offer a partial cure for the plague of parameters, and these models are increasingly used in theoretical studies. However, physiological allometries cannot determine all parameters, and the models have also rarely been directly tested against data. We confronted a model of community dynamics with data from a lake community. Many important empirical patterns were reproducible as outcomes of dynamics, and were not reproducible when parameters did not follow physiological allometries. Results validate the usefulness, when parameters follow physiological allometries, of classic differential-equation models for understanding whole-community dynamics and the structure-dynamics relationship.

Diatoms can be an important exception to temperature-size rules at species and community levels of organization

Climate warming has been linked to an apparent general decrease in body sizes of ectotherms, both across and within taxa, especially in aquatic systems. Smaller body size in warmer geographical regions has also been widely observed. Since body size is a fundamental determinant of many biological attributes, climate-warming-related changes in size could ripple across multiple levels of ecological organization. Some recent studies have questioned the ubiquity of temperature-size rules, however, and certain widespread and abundant taxa, such as diatoms, may be important exceptions. We tested the hypothesis that diatoms are smaller at warmer temperatures using a system of geothermally heated streams. There was no consistent relationship between size and temperature at either the population or community level. These field data provide important counterexamples to both James' and Bergmann's temperature-size rules, respectively, undermining the widely held assumption that warming favours the small. This study provides compelling new evidence that diatoms are an important exception to temperature-size rules for three reasons: (i) we use many more species than prior work; (ii) we examine both community and species levels of organization simultaneously; (iii) we work in a natural system with a wide temperature gradient but minimal variation in other factors, to achieve robust tests of hypotheses without relying on laboratory setups, which have limited realism. In addition, we show that interspecific effects were a bigger contributor to whole-community size differences, and are probably more ecologically important than more commonly studied intraspecific effects. These findings highlight the need for multispecies approaches in future studies of climate warming and body size.

Temperature dependence of trophic interactions are driven by asymmetry of species responses and foraging strategy

Environmental temperature has systematic effects on rates of species interactions, primarily through its influence on organismal physiology. We present a mechanistic model for the thermal response of consumer-resource interactions. We focus on how temperature affects species interactions via key traits - body velocity, detection distance, search rate and handling time - that underlie per capita consumption rate. The model is general because it applies to all foraging strategies: active-capture (both consumer and resource body velocity are important), sit-and-wait (resource velocity dominates) and grazing (consumer velocity dominates). The model predicts that temperature influences consumer-resource interactions primarily through its effects on body velocity (either of the consumer, resource or both), which determines how often consumers and resources encounter each other, and that asymmetries in the thermal responses of interacting species can introduce qualitative, not just quantitative, changes in consumer-resource dynamics. We illustrate this by showing how asymmetries in thermal responses determine equilibrium population densities in interacting consumer-resource pairs. We test for the existence of asymmetries in consumer-resource thermal responses by analysing an extensive database on thermal response curves of ecological traits for 309 species spanning 15 orders of magnitude in body size from terrestrial, marine and freshwater habitats. We find that asymmetries in consumer-resource thermal responses are likely to be a common occurrence. Overall, our study reveals the importance of asymmetric thermal responses in consumer-resource dynamics. In particular, we identify three general types of asymmetries: (i) different levels of performance of the response, (ii) different rates of response (e.g. activation energies) and (iii) different peak or optimal temperatures. Such asymmetries should occur more frequently as the climate changes and species' geographical distributions and phenologies are altered, such that previously noninteracting species come into contact. 6. By using characteristics of trophic interactions that are often well known, such as body size, foraging strategy, thermy and environmental temperature, our framework should allow more accurate predictions about the thermal dependence of consumer-resource interactions. Ultimately, integration of our theory into models of food web and ecosystem dynamics should be useful in understanding how natural systems will respond to current and future temperature change.

Food web structure in a harsh glacier-fed river

Glacier retreat is occurring across the world, and associated river ecosystems are expected to respond more rapidly than those in flowing waters in other regions. The river environment directly downstream of a glacier snout is characterised by extreme low water temperature and unstable channel sediments but these habitats may become rarer with widespread glacier retreat. In these extreme environments food web dynamics have been little studied, yet they could offer opportunities to test food web theories using highly resolved food webs owing to their low taxonomic richness. This study examined the interactions of macroinvertebrate and diatom taxa in the Ödenwinkelkees river, Austrian central Alps between 2006 and 2011. The webs were characterised by low taxon richness (13-22), highly connected individuals (directed connectance up to 0.19) and short mean food chain length (2.00-2.36). The dominant macroinvertebrates were members of the Chironomidae genus Diamesa and had an omnivorous diet rich in detritus and diatoms as well as other Chironomidae. Simuliidae (typically detritivorous filterers) had a diet rich in diatoms but also showed evidence of predation on Chironomidae larvae. Food webs showed strong species-averaged and individual size structuring but mass-abundance scaling coefficients were larger than those predicted by metabolic theory, perhaps due to a combination of spatial averaging effects of patchily distributed consumers and resources, and/or consumers deriving unquantified resources from microorganisms attached to the large amounts of ingested rock fragments. Comparison of food web structural metrics with those from 62 published river webs suggest these glacier-fed river food web properties were extreme but in line with general food web scaling predictions, a finding which could prove useful to forecast the effects of anticipated future glacier retreat on the structure of aquatic food webs.

Novel communities from climate change

Climate change is generating novel communities composed of new combinations of species. These result from different degrees of species adaptations to changing biotic and abiotic conditions, and from differential range shifts of species. To determine whether the responses of organisms are determined by particular species traits and how species interactions and community dynamics are likely to be disrupted is a challenge. Here, we focus on two key traits: body size and ecological specialization. We present theoretical expectations and empirical evidence on how climate change affects these traits within communities. We then explore how these traits predispose species to shift or expand their distribution ranges, and associated changes on community size structure, food web organization and dynamics. We identify three major broad changes: (i) Shift in the distribution of body sizes towards smaller sizes, (ii) dominance of generalized interactions and the loss of specialized interactions, and (iii) changes in the balance of strong and weak interaction strengths in the short term. We finally identify two major uncertainties: (i) whether large-bodied species tend to preferentially shift their ranges more than small-bodied ones, and (ii) how interaction strengths will change in the long term and in the case of newly interacting species.

Linking community size structure and ecosystem functioning using metabolic theory

Understanding how biogeochemical cycles relate to the structure of ecological communities is a central research question in ecology. Here we approach this problem by focusing on body size, which is an easily measured species trait that has a pervasive influence on multiple aspects of community structure and ecosystem functioning. We test the predictions of a model derived from metabolic theory using data on ecosystem metabolism and community size structure. These data were collected as part of an aquatic mesocosm experiment that was designed to simulate future environmental warming. Our analyses demonstrate significant linkages between community size structure and ecosystem functioning, and the effects of warming on these links. Specifically, we show that carbon fluxes were significantly influenced by seasonal variation in temperature, and yielded activation energies remarkably similar to those predicted based on the temperature dependencies of individual-level photosynthesis and respiration. We also show that community size structure significantly influenced fluxes of ecosystem respiration and gross primary production, particularly at the annual time-scale. Assessing size structure and the factors that control it, both empirically and theoretically, therefore promises to aid in understanding links between individual organisms and biogeochemical cycles, and in predicting the responses of key ecosystem functions to future environmental change.

Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical–biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30–60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28–89%.

Climate change impacts in multispecies systems: drought alters food web size structure in a field experiment

Experimental data from intergenerational field manipulations of entire food webs are scarce, yet such approaches are essential for gauging impacts of environmental change in natural systems. We imposed 2 years of intermittent drought on stream channels in a replicated field trial, to measure food web responses to simulated climate change. Drought triggered widespread losses of species and links, with larger taxa and those that were rare for their size, many of which were predatory, being especially vulnerable. Many network properties, including size-scaling relationships within food chains, changed in response to drought. Other properties, such as connectance, were unaffected. These findings highlight the need for detailed experimental data from different organizational levels, from pairwise links to the entire food web. The loss of not only large species, but also those that were rare for their size, provides a newly refined way to gauge likely impacts that may be applied more generally to other systems and/or impacts.

Potential for climate effects on the size-structure of host-parasitoid indirect interaction networks

Communities of insect herbivores are thought to be structured mainly by indirect processes mediated by shared natural enemies, such as apparent competition. In host-parasitoid interaction networks, overlap in natural enemy communities between any pair of host species depends on the realized niches of parasitoids, which ultimately depend on the foraging decisions of individuals. Optimal foraging theory predicts that egg-limited parasitoid females should reject small hosts in favour of future opportunities to oviposit in larger hosts, while time-limited parasitoids are expected to optimize oviposition rate regardless of host size. The degree to which parasitoids are time- or egg-limited depends in part on weather conditions, as this determines the proportion of an individual's lifespan that is available to foraging. Using a 10-year time series of monthly quantitative host-parasitoid webs, we present evidence for host-size-based electivity and sex allocation in the common secondary parasitoid Asaphes vulgaris. We argue that this electivity leads to body-size-dependent asymmetry in apparent competition among hosts and we discuss how changing weather patterns, as a result of climate change, may impact foraging behaviour and thereby the size-structure and dynamics of host-parasitoid indirect interaction networks.

Size-dependent species removal impairs ecosystem functioning in a large-scale tropical field experiment

A major challenge of ecological research is to assess the functional consequences of species richness loss over time and space in global biodiversity hotspots, where extinctions are happening at an unprecedented rate. To address this issue, greater realism needs to be incorporated into both conceptual and experimental approaches. Here we propose a conceptual model that incorporates body size as a critical aspect of community responses to environmental change, which we tested in the Western Amazonian rain forest, one of the most speciose ecosystems on the planet. We employed an exclosure removal experiment (replicated under 10 microhabitats and four climatic conditions) in which we manipulated access to two types of resource by the whole community of dung and carrion beetles (> 60 species), depending on their size. Our 400 independent measurements revealed that changes in the number of species and functional groups, and temporal patterns in community composition, all affected resource burial rates, a key ecosystem process. Further, the functional contribution of species diversity in each size class was tightly dependent on beetle abundance, and while the role of large species could be performed by abundant smaller ones, and other naturally occurring decomposers, this was not the case when environmental conditions were harsher. These results demonstrate, for the first time in an animal assemblage in a tropical ecosystem, that although species may appear functionally redundant under one set of environmental conditions, many species would be needed to maintain ecosystem functioning at multiple temporal and spatial scales. This highlights the potential fragility of these systems to the ongoing global "Sixth Great Extinction," whose effects are likely to be especially pronounced in the Tropics.

A metabolic perspective on competition and body size reductions with warming

Temperature is a key driver of ecological processes and patterns. The ramifications of temperature for ecological communities include not only its direct effects on the physiology of individuals, but also how these effects play out in the context of other processes such as competition. Apparently idiosyncratic or difficult to predict effects of temperature on competitive outcomes are well represented in the literature. General theoretical understanding of how physiological influences of temperature filter through community dynamics to determine outcomes is limited. We present a theoretical framework for predicting the effects of temperature on competition among species, based on understanding the effects of temperature on the physiological and population parameters of the species. The approach helps unify formal resource competition theory with metabolic and physiological ecology. Phytoplankton and many other ectotherms are smaller at higher temperatures. This has been observed experimentally, across geographical gradients, and as change accompanying climate warming, but it has not been explained in terms of competition. As a case study, we apply our theoretical framework to competition for nutrients among differently sized phytoplankton. Based on this analysis, we hypothesize that the prevalence of smaller phytoplankton at higher temperatures is at least partly due to an accentuated competitive advantage of smaller cells at higher temperatures with respect to nutrient uptake and growth. We examine the scope for extending the approach to understand resource competition, generally, among ectotherms of different sizes.

Food webs: reconciling the structure and function of biodiversity

The global biodiversity crisis concerns not only unprecedented loss of species within communities, but also related consequences for ecosystem function. Community ecology focuses on patterns of species richness and community composition, whereas ecosystem ecology focuses on fluxes of energy and materials. Food webs provide a quantitative framework to combine these approaches and unify the study of biodiversity and ecosystem function. We summarise the progression of food-web ecology and the challenges in using the food-web approach. We identify five areas of research where these advances can continue, and be applied to global challenges. Finally, we describe what data are needed in the next generation of food-web studies to reconcile the structure and function of biodiversity.