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Abbasi S, Ko J. Cycling safely: Examining the factors associated with bicycle accidents in Seoul, South Korea. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2024; 206:107691. [PMID: 38964137 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2023] [Revised: 01/01/2024] [Accepted: 06/23/2024] [Indexed: 07/06/2024]
Abstract
This study investigates the factors contributing to bicycle accidents, focusing on four types of bicycle lanes and other exposure and built environment characteristics of census blocks. Using Seoul as a case study, three years of bicycle accident spot data from 2018 to 2020 was collected, resulting in 1,330 bicycle accident spots and a total of 2,072 accidents. The geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model was used as a methodological approach to investigate the spatially varying relationships between the accident frequency and explanatory variables across the space, as opposed to the Poisson regression model. The results indicated that the GWPR model outperforms the global Poisson regression model in capturing unobserved spatial heterogeneity. For example, the value of deviance that determines the goodness of fit for a model was 0.244 for the Poisson regression model and 0.500 for the far better-fitting GWPR model. Further findings revealed that the factors affecting bicycle accidents have varying impacts depending on the location and distribution of accidents. For example, despite the presence of bicycle lanes, some census blocks, particularly in the northeast part of the city, still pose a risk for bicycle accidents. These findings can provide valuable insights for urban planners and policymakers in developing bicycle safety measures and regulations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sorath Abbasi
- Department of Economics Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University Lipova 41a, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Joonho Ko
- Graduate School of Urban Studies, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul 04763, South Korea.
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Costa M, Lima Azevedo C, Siebert FW, Marques M, Moura F. Unraveling the relation between cycling accidents and built environment typologies: Capturing spatial heterogeneity through a latent class discrete outcome model. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2024; 200:107533. [PMID: 38492347 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107533] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2023] [Revised: 02/12/2024] [Accepted: 02/28/2024] [Indexed: 03/18/2024]
Abstract
Today, cities seek to transition to more sustainable transportation modes. Cycling is critical in this shift, promoting a more beneficial lifestyle for most. However, cyclists are exposed to many hazardous circumstances or environments, resulting in accidents, injuries, and even death. Transport authorities must understand why accidents occur, to reduce the risk of those who cycle. This study applies a new modeling framework to analyze cycling accident severities. We employ a latent class discrete outcome model, where classes are derived from a Gaussian-Bernoulli mixture, applied to data from Berlin, and augmented with volunteered geographic information. We jointly estimate model components, combining machine learning and econometric approaches, allowing for more intricate and flexible representations while maintaining interpretability. Results show the potential of our approach. Risk factors are indexed depending on where accidents occurred and their contribution. We can discover complex relations between specific built environments and accident characteristics and uncover differences in the impact of certain accident factors on one environment typology but not others. Using multiple data sources also proves helpful as an additional layer of knowledge, providing unique value to understand and model cycling accidents. Another critical aspect of our approach is the potential for simulation, where locations can be examined through simulated accident features to understand the inherent risk of various locations. These findings highlight the ability to capture heterogeneity in accidents and their relation to the built environment. Capturing such relations allows for more direct countermeasures to risky situations or policies to be designed, simulated, and targeted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel Costa
- Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, Lisboa, Portugal; Institute for Systems and Robotics, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, Lisboa, Portugal; Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark.
| | - Carlos Lima Azevedo
- Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark.
| | - Felix Wilhelm Siebert
- Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark.
| | - Manuel Marques
- Institute for Systems and Robotics, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, Lisboa, Portugal.
| | - Filipe Moura
- Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, Lisboa, Portugal.
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Roberts LE, Bushover B, Mehranbod CA, Gobaud AN, Fish C, Eschliman EL, Gao X, Zadey S, Morrison CN. Physical environmental roadway interventions and injury and death for vulnerable road users: a natural experiment in New York City. Inj Prev 2024:ip-2023-045219. [PMID: 38789249 DOI: 10.1136/ip-2023-045219] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/26/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION This study examined the effectiveness of three physical environmental roadway interventions (enhanced crossings, speed humps, and turn traffic calming) in preventing crashes involving pedestrian and cyclist injury and mortality in New York City. METHODS We examined crashes that occurred within a 100-foot radius of intervention and control sites from 2015 to 2019. We used a staggered difference-in-difference design to estimate the association between each intervention type and pedestrian and cyclist crash outcomes. RESULTS Estimates for enhanced crossings and speed humps included the possibility of no association with crashes, but estimates for turn traffic calming interventions showed reduced odds of crashes involving pedestrian injury by 16% (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.95) and crashes involving pedestrian fatality by 80% (OR 0.20, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.47). When stratifying by street segment length as a proxy for areas with high speeding risk, turn traffic calming treatments appeared to be most effective at intersections connected to long street segments. DISCUSSION Turn traffic calming may substantially reduce crash risks for pedestrians. Municipalities can prioritise this physical environmental intervention, especially at turns near long street segments, as a low-cost intervention with substantial public health impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leah E Roberts
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York, USA
| | - Brady Bushover
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York, USA
| | - Christina A Mehranbod
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York, USA
| | - Ariana N Gobaud
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York, USA
| | - Carolyn Fish
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York, USA
| | - Evan L Eschliman
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York, USA
| | - Xiang Gao
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York, USA
| | - Siddhesh Zadey
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York, USA
| | - Christopher N Morrison
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York, USA
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Goel R, Tiwari G, Varghese M, Bhalla K, Agrawal G, Saini G, Jha A, John D, Saran A, White H, Mohan D. Effectiveness of road safety interventions: An evidence and gap map. CAMPBELL SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS 2024; 20:e1367. [PMID: 38188231 PMCID: PMC10765170 DOI: 10.1002/cl2.1367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2024]
Abstract
Background Road Traffic injuries (RTI) are among the top ten leading causes of death in the world resulting in 1.35 million deaths every year, about 93% of which occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite several global resolutions to reduce traffic injuries, they have continued to grow in many countries. Many high-income countries have successfully reduced RTI by using a public health approach and implementing evidence-based interventions. As many LMICs develop their highway infrastructure, adopting a similar scientific approach towards road safety is crucial. The evidence also needs to be evaluated to assess external validity because measures that have worked in high-income countries may not translate equally well to other contexts. An evidence gap map for RTI is the first step towards understanding what evidence is available, from where, and the key gaps in knowledge. Objectives The objective of this evidence gap map (EGM) is to identify existing evidence from all effectiveness studies and systematic reviews related to road safety interventions. In addition, the EGM identifies gaps in evidence where new primary studies and systematic reviews could add value. This will help direct future research and discussions based on systematic evidence towards the approaches and interventions which are most effective in the road safety sector. This could enable the generation of evidence for informing policy at global, regional or national levels. Search Methods The EGM includes systematic reviews and impact evaluations assessing the effect of interventions for RTI reported in academic databases, organization websites, and grey literature sources. The studies were searched up to December 2019. Selection Criteria The interventions were divided into five broad categories: (a) human factors (e.g., enforcement or road user education), (b) road design, infrastructure and traffic control, (c) legal and institutional framework, (d) post-crash pre-hospital care, and (e) vehicle factors (except car design for occupant protection) and protective devices. Included studies reported two primary outcomes: fatal crashes and non-fatal injury crashes; and four intermediate outcomes: change in use of seat belts, change in use of helmets, change in speed, and change in alcohol/drug use. Studies were excluded if they did not report injury or fatality as one of the outcomes. Data Collection and Analysis The EGM is presented in the form of a matrix with two primary dimensions: interventions (rows) and outcomes (columns). Additional dimensions are country income groups, region, quality level for systematic reviews, type of study design used (e.g., case-control), type of road user studied (e.g., pedestrian, cyclists), age groups, and road type. The EGM is available online where the matrix of interventions and outcomes can be filtered by one or more dimensions. The webpage includes a bibliography of the selected studies and titles and abstracts available for preview. Quality appraisal for systematic reviews was conducted using a critical appraisal tool for systematic reviews, AMSTAR 2. Main Results The EGM identified 1859 studies of which 322 were systematic reviews, 7 were protocol studies and 1530 were impact evaluations. Some studies included more than one intervention, outcome, study method, or study region. The studies were distributed among intervention categories as: human factors (n = 771), road design, infrastructure and traffic control (n = 661), legal and institutional framework (n = 424), post-crash pre-hospital care (n = 118) and vehicle factors and protective devices (n = 111). Fatal crashes as outcomes were reported in 1414 records and non-fatal injury crashes in 1252 records. Among the four intermediate outcomes, speed was most commonly reported (n = 298) followed by alcohol (n = 206), use of seatbelts (n = 167), and use of helmets (n = 66). Ninety-six percent of the studies were reported from high-income countries (HIC), 4.5% from upper-middle-income countries, and only 1.4% from lower-middle and low-income countries. There were 25 systematic reviews of high quality, 4 of moderate quality, and 293 of low quality. Authors' Conclusions The EGM shows that the distribution of available road safety evidence is skewed across the world. A vast majority of the literature is from HICs. In contrast, only a small fraction of the literature reports on the many LMICs that are fast expanding their road infrastructure, experiencing rapid changes in traffic patterns, and witnessing growth in road injuries. This bias in literature explains why many interventions that are of high importance in the context of LMICs remain poorly studied. Besides, many interventions that have been tested only in HICs may not work equally effectively in LMICs. Another important finding was that a large majority of systematic reviews are of low quality. The scarcity of evidence on many important interventions and lack of good quality evidence-synthesis have significant implications for future road safety research and practice in LMICs. The EGM presented here will help identify priority areas for researchers, while directing practitioners and policy makers towards proven interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rahul Goel
- Transportation Research and Injury Prevention CentreIndian Institute of Technology DelhiNew DelhiIndia
| | - Geetam Tiwari
- Transportation Research and Injury Prevention CentreIndian Institute of Technology DelhiNew DelhiIndia
| | | | - Kavi Bhalla
- Department of Public Health SciencesUniversity of ChicagoChicagoIllinoisUSA
| | - Girish Agrawal
- Transportation Research and Injury Prevention CentreIndian Institute of Technology DelhiNew DelhiIndia
| | | | - Abhaya Jha
- Transportation Research and Injury Prevention CentreIndian Institute of Technology DelhiNew DelhiIndia
| | - Denny John
- Faculty of Life and Allied Health SciencesM S Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, BangaloreKarnatakaIndia
| | | | | | - Dinesh Mohan
- Transportation Research and Injury Prevention CentreIndian Institute of Technology DelhiNew DelhiIndia
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Garber MD, Watkins KE, Flanders WD, Kramer MR, Lobelo RF, Mooney SJ, Ederer DJ, McCullough LE. Bicycle infrastructure and the incidence rate of crashes with cars: A case-control study with Strava data in Atlanta. JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT & HEALTH 2023; 32:101669. [PMID: 38196814 PMCID: PMC10773466 DOI: 10.1016/j.jth.2023.101669] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/11/2024]
Abstract
Introduction Bicycling has individual and collective health benefits. Safety concerns are a deterrent to bicycling. Incomplete data on bicycling volumes has limited epidemiologic research investigating safety impacts of bicycle infrastructure, such as protected bike lanes. Methods In this case-control study, set in Atlanta, Georgia, USA between 2016-10-01 and 2018-08-31, we estimated the incidence rate of police-reported crashes between bicyclists and motor vehicles (n = 124) on several types of infrastructure (off-street paved trails, protected bike lanes, buffered bike lanes, conventional bike lanes, and sharrows) per distance ridden and per intersection entered. To estimate underlying bicycling (the control series), we used a sample of high-resolution bicycling data from Strava, an app, combined with data from 15 on-the-ground bicycle counters to adjust for possible selection bias in the Strava data. We used model-based standardization to estimate effects of treatment on the treated. Results After adjustment for selection bias and confounding, estimated ratio effects on segments (excluding intersections) with protected bike lanes (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.5 [95% confidence interval: 0.0, 2.5]) and buffered bike lanes (IRR = 0 [0,0]) were below 1, but were above 1 on conventional bike lanes (IRR = 2.8 [1.2, 6.0]) and near null on sharrows (IRR = 1.1 [0.2, 2.9]). Per intersection entry, estimated ratio effects were above 1 for entries originating from protected bike lanes (incidence proportion ratio [IPR] = 3.0 [0.0, 10.8]), buffered bike lanes (IPR = 16.2 [0.0, 53.1]), and conventional bike lanes (IPR = 3.2 [1.8, 6.0]), and were near 1 and below 1, respectively, for those originating from sharrows (IPR = 0.9 [0.2, 2.1]) and off-street paved trails (IPR = 0.7 [0.0, 2.9]). Conclusions Protected bike lanes and buffered bike lanes had estimated protective effects on segments between intersections but estimated harmful effects at intersections. Conventional bike lanes had estimated harmful effects along segments and at intersections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael D. Garber
- Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public
Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health
Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
- Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human
Longevity Science & Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, San
Diego, CA, USA
| | - Kari E. Watkins
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA
| | - W. Dana Flanders
- Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public
Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins
School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Michael R. Kramer
- Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public
Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - R.L. Felipe Lobelo
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of
Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Stephen J. Mooney
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington School
of Public Health, USA
- Harborview Injury Prevention & Research Center,
University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - David J. Ederer
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of
Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Lauren E. McCullough
- Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public
Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
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Spatiotemporal mapping of major trauma in Victoria, Australia. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0266521. [PMID: 35793336 PMCID: PMC9258853 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0266521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2021] [Accepted: 03/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Spatiotemporal modelling techniques allow one to predict injury across time and space. However, such methods have been underutilised in injury studies. This study demonstrates the use of statistical spatiotemporal modelling in identifying areas of significantly high injury risk, and areas witnessing significantly increasing risk over time. METHODS We performed a retrospective review of hospitalised major trauma patients from the Victorian State Trauma Registry, Australia, between 2007 and 2019. Geographical locations of injury events were mapped to the 79 local government areas (LGAs) in the state. We employed Bayesian spatiotemporal models to quantify spatial and temporal patterns, and analysed the results across a range of geographical remoteness and socioeconomic levels. RESULTS There were 31,317 major trauma patients included. For major trauma overall, we observed substantial spatial variation in injury incidence and a significant 2.1% increase in injury incidence per year. Area-specific risk of injury by motor vehicle collision was higher in regional areas relative to metropolitan areas, while risk of injury by low fall was higher in metropolitan areas. Significant temporal increases were observed in injury by low fall, and the greatest increases were observed in the most disadvantaged LGAs. CONCLUSIONS These findings can be used to inform injury prevention initiatives, which could be designed to target areas with relatively high injury risk and with significantly increasing injury risk over time. Our finding that the greatest year-on-year increases in injury incidence were observed in the most disadvantaged areas highlights the need for a greater emphasis on reducing inequities in injury.
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Samerei SA, Aghabayk K, Shiwakoti N, Mohammadi A. Using latent class clustering and binary logistic regression to model Australian cyclist injury severity in motor vehicle-bicycle crashes. JOURNAL OF SAFETY RESEARCH 2021; 79:246-256. [PMID: 34848005 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2021.09.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2021] [Revised: 05/19/2021] [Accepted: 09/09/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION In recent years, Australia is seeing an increase in the total number of cyclists. However, the rise of serious injuries and fatalities to cyclists has been a major concern. Understanding the factors affecting the fatalities and injuries of bicyclists in crashes with motor vehicles is important to develop effective policy measures aimed at improving the safety of bicyclists. This study aims to identify the factors affecting motor vehicle-bicycle (MVB) crashes in Victoria, Australia and introducing effective countermeasures for the identified risk factors. METHOD A data set of 14,759 MVB crash records from Victoria, Australia between 2006 and 2019 was analyzed using the binary logit model and latent class clustering. RESULTS It was observed that the factors that increase the risk of fatalities and serious injuries of bicyclists (FSI) in all clusters are: elderly bicyclist, not using a helmet, and darkness condition. Likewise, in areas with no traffic control, clear weather, and dry surface condition (cluster 1), high speed limits increase the risk of FSI, but the occurrence of MVB crashes in cross intersection and T-intersection has been significantly associated with a reduction in the risk of FSI. In areas with traffic control and unfavorable weather conditions (cluster 2), wet road surface increases the risk of FSI, but the areas with give way sign and pedestrian crossing signs reduce the risk of FSI. Practical Applications: Recommendations to reduce the risk of fatalities or serious injury to bicyclists are: improvement of road lighting and more exposure of bicyclists using reflective clothing and reflectors, separation of the bicycle and vehicle path in mid blocks especially in high-speed areas, using a more stable bicycle for the older people, monitoring helmet use, improving autonomous emergency braking, and using bicyclist detection technology for vehicles.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seyed Alireza Samerei
- School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
| | - Kayvan Aghabayk
- School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Amin Mohammadi
- Mianeh Technical and Engineering Faculty, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
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Ji S, Wang Y, Wang Y. Geographically weighted poisson regression under linear model of coregionalization assistance: Application to a bicycle crash study. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2021; 159:106230. [PMID: 34153640 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.106230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2020] [Revised: 04/27/2021] [Accepted: 05/31/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
While cycling benefits individuals and society, cyclists are vulnerable road users, and their safety concerns arouse more macro-level spatial crash studies. Our study intends to investigate the spatial effects of population, land use, and bicycle lane infrastructures on bicycle crashes. This was done by developing a semi-parametric Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (sGWPR) model which deals with the issue of spatial correlation and spatial non-stationarity simultaneously. It is a model that combines both constant and geographically varying parameters. To determine which parameter is fixed or non-stationary, previous studies suggest monitoring the Akaike Information Criterion (AICc). Yet, relying only on AICc might bury some spatial associations. So, in this study, we propose a Linear Model of Coregionalization (LMC) to assist the decision. Here, we use bicycle crash data across the metropolitan area of Greater Melbourne to establish sGWPR models suggested by AICc and LMC, respectively. Comparing the two sGWPR models, we found the sGWPR model under LMC results performs as well as sGWPR models suggested by AICc from the AICc perspective, and a 22.5% improvement in the mean squared error (MSE). It also uncovers more details about the spatial relationship between bicycle crashes and bicycle lane intersection density (BLID), an effect not suggested under AICc results. The parameters of BLID, a new measurement of bicycle lane facilities proposed by us, vary over space across analysis zones in Greater Melbourne.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shujuan Ji
- Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Management, Control and Cycle Repair Technology for Traffic Network Facilities in Ecological Security Barrier Area, Chang'an University, P.O. Box 487, Xi'an 710064, China
| | - Yuanqing Wang
- Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Management, Control and Cycle Repair Technology for Traffic Network Facilities in Ecological Security Barrier Area, Chang'an University, P.O. Box 487, Xi'an 710064, China.
| | - Yao Wang
- Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Management, Control and Cycle Repair Technology for Traffic Network Facilities in Ecological Security Barrier Area, Chang'an University, P.O. Box 487, Xi'an 710064, China
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Debnath AK, Haworth N, Heesch KC. Women cycling in Queensland: Results from an observational study. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2021; 151:105980. [PMID: 33482496 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.105980] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2019] [Revised: 11/13/2020] [Accepted: 01/05/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Women are less likely to ride than men in low cycling countries such as Australia. In Australia, self-reported cycling participation appears to be declining, particularly for women. This paper examines the rider and road environment correlates of women's cycling. While most earlier studies relied on self-report data to understand gender differences in cycling, this study video-recorded 24,868 riders (22 % female) at 17 sites across Queensland, Australia. The probabilities of an observed rider being female under different circumstances (e.g., speed limit, riding location, time of riding, group riding) at these sites were modelled in a binomial logistic regression framework. The likelihood of a rider being a woman was greater during the day (9am-8pm) than the early morning (5-9 a.m.); on weekends than on weekdays; in groups of two or more riders than among single riders; in lower speed zones than speed zones of 60 km/h or over; on roads with bike lanes or multiple traffic lanes or raised medians than on roads without these, and in urban areas than suburban areas. The likelihood of the rider being a woman was lower among those riding road bikes than other types of bicycles. The use of a naturalistic study design marks the key strength of this paper. Findings of this study should help better understand women's cycling patterns and preferred cycling locations, which cycling communities and organisations can use to advocate for better roads and paths that make female riders feel safe.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Narelle Haworth
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety-Queensland, Kelvin Grove, 4059, Australia.
| | - Kristiann C Heesch
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Public Health and Social Work and Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Kelvin Grove, 4059, Australia.
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Myhrmann MS, Janstrup KH, Møller M, Mabit SE. Factors influencing the injury severity of single-bicycle crashes. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2021; 149:105875. [PMID: 33242711 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105875] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2020] [Revised: 10/30/2020] [Accepted: 11/02/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
The majority of research on bicyclist injury severity relates to bicycle-motor vehicle crashes, even though single-bicycle crashes make up more than half of bicycle crashes. This study explores the factors related to the injury severity outcome of single-bicycle crashes. We use single-bicycle crash data obtained from medical records collected in the period 2010-2015 combined with road maintenance data. The data includes three injury severity categories: 'severe injury', 'slight injury', 'no injury'. The relation between the factors surrounding single-bicycle crashes and the resulting injury severity is estimated using a latent class ordered probit model. The model estimation identifies three latent classes where the likelihood of cyclist membership depends on the bicyclist's age and gender. Furthermore, several factors appear to affect the likelihood of injuries in single-bicycle crashes. These are the road geometry (i.e. if the crash occurred on a bicycle lane or a road section), maintenance level, and the interaction between road geometry and maintenance level. The findings suggest that single-bicycle crashes on road sections result in more severe injuries than single-bicycle crashes on bicycle lanes. The largest effect is seen when a single-bicycle crash occurs on a road section with a poorly maintained bicycle lane being available. Crashes on low volume roads with few bicyclists are also related to an increased probability of severe injury as well as crashes occurring after dark.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcus Skyum Myhrmann
- Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Bygningstorvet 116B, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark.
| | - Kira Hyldekær Janstrup
- Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Bygningstorvet 116B, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
| | - Mette Møller
- Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Bygningstorvet 116B, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
| | - Stefan Eriksen Mabit
- Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Bygningstorvet 116B, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
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Toval-Ruiz C, Rojas-Roque C, Hernández-Vásquez A. Predictors and geographic analysis of road traffic accidents in Leon, Nicaragua. REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE EPIDEMIOLOGIA 2020; 24:e210003. [PMID: 33331412 DOI: 10.1590/1980-549720210003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To identify environmental factors present in areas with high density of road traffic accidents (RTA) in Leon, Nicaragua. METHODS The analysis included all accidents recorded by the Police Department in León City, from January to June 2017. All crashes were georeferenced, and data were collected from the environment elements within a perimeter of 20 meters from the site in which accidents occurred with a pre-tested data collection instrument. We specified a Poisson regression model to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to determine environmental factors associated with the event incidence. For the identification areas with high, medium, and low occurrences of crashes, kernel density around points in which RTA occurred were estimated. RESULTS Out of 667 recorded crashes, 90% involved men aged 15-40, and motorcycle accidents represented 60% of injuries or deaths. Environmental factors that were positively associated with RTA included good road conditions (adjusted IRR = 1.36, 95%CI 1.13 - 1.63) and the existence of bicycle lanes (adjusted IRR = 1.64, 95%CI 1.29 - 2.10). Environmental characteristics associated with higher speeds and heavier accidents can increase their incidence. CONCLUSION We found that high-foot-traffic commercial or touristic centers are three areas with high density of crashes. Local authorities can use these findings to promote road safety measures in high-incidence areas in León City.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christian Toval-Ruiz
- Centro de Investigación en Demografía y Salud, Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua - León, Nicaragua
| | - Carlos Rojas-Roque
- Centro de Investigación en Demografía y Salud, Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua - León, Nicaragua
| | - Akram Hernández-Vásquez
- Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola, Vicerrectorado de Investigación, Centro de Excelencia en Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales en Salud - Lima, Peru
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12
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Bicycle-Vehicle Conflict Risk Based on Cyclist Perceptions: Misestimations of Various Risk Factors. SUSTAINABILITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/su12239867] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Cycling is a sustainable but vulnerable mode of transportation. Intersections’ bicycle-vehicle crashes are particularly dangerous. This paper explores the discordance between empirical evidence and cyclists’ perceptions of the various risk factors of cycling. Ridge regression was adopted to identify risk factors from bicycle-vehicle conflict data. A questionnaire was distributed to assess cyclists’ perceptions of safety and danger over the same candidate risk factors. There was indeed discordance between the data and the questionnaire results. Cyclists appear to misestimate risk in certain factors such as bus stops and subway stations. Understanding these misestimations can provide a foundation for safety improvements and for promoting cycling as a sustainable mode of transportation.
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13
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Fraser ML, Meuleners LB. Risk factors for unsafe events involving a motor vehicle for group riders (cyclists): A naturalistic case-crossover study. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2020; 146:105758. [PMID: 32947208 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105758] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2020] [Revised: 08/24/2020] [Accepted: 08/28/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
This study aimed to determine the risk factors associated with unsafe events involving a motor vehicle, that occurred while group riding (cycling) in Perth, Western Australia. Naturalistic video footage was collected from 52 group riders and unsafe events identified. A case-crossover study was used to compare the road infrastructure and group behavioural characteristics of 108 case sites where unsafe events occurred to 216 control sites where no unsafe events occurred. After controlling for potential confounding factors, roundabouts increased the risk of an unsafe event compared to midblocks (odds ratio (OR): 3.63, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.57-8.42, p = 0.003), priority control intersections (OR: 4.36, 95% CI: 1.49-12.76, 0.007) and traffic signal intersections (OR: 5.57, 95% CI: 1.42-21.79, p = 0.014). Raised traffic islands (OR: 2.30, 95% CI: 1.41-3.78, p = 0.001), posted speed limits of ≥60 km per hour (OR: 2.45, 95% CI: 1.55-3.86, p < 0.001) and group rider traffic violations (OR: 2.51, 95% CI: 1.14-5.53, p = 0.022) also significantly increased the risk of an unsafe event. Riding two abreast in the traffic lane (OR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.32-0.76, p = 0.002) or having all riders in the bicycle lane (OR: 0.14, 95% CI: 0.04-0.51, p = 0.003), significantly reduced the risk of an unsafe event, compared to riding single file in the traffic lane. Simple road infrastructure treatments on popular group riding routes as well as education targeting both group riders and motorists, could reduce unsafe events and promote a safer, more inclusive shared road environment for group riders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michelle L Fraser
- Western Australian Centre for Road Safety Research, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Western Australia, Perth Western Australia 6009, Australia.
| | - Lynn B Meuleners
- Western Australian Centre for Road Safety Research, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Western Australia, Perth Western Australia 6009, Australia
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14
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Thompson J, Read GJM, Wijnands JS, Salmon PM. The perils of perfect performance; considering the effects of introducing autonomous vehicles on rates of car vs cyclist conflict. ERGONOMICS 2020; 63:981-996. [PMID: 32138601 DOI: 10.1080/00140139.2020.1739326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2019] [Accepted: 02/07/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
How humans will adapt and respond to the introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is uncertain. This study used an agent-based model to explore how AVs, human-operated vehicles, and cyclists might interact based on the introduction of flawlessly performing AVs. Under two separate experimental conditions, results of experiment 1 showed that, despite no conflicts occurring between cyclists and AVs, modelled conflicts among human-operated cars and cyclists increased with the introduction of AVs due to cyclists' adjusted expectations of the behaviour and capability of human-operated and autonomous cars. Similarly, when human-operated cars were replaced with AVs over time in experiment 2, cyclist conflict rates did not follow a linear reduction consistent with the replacement rate but decreased more slowly in the early stages of replacement before 50% substitution. It is concluded that, although flawlessly performing AVs might reduce total conflicts, the introduction of AVs into a transport system where humans adjust to the behaviour and risk presented by AVs could create new sources of error that offset some of AVs assumed safety benefits. Practitioner summary: Ergonomics is an applied science that studies interactions between humans and other elements of a system, including non-human agents. Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) provides an approach for exploring dynamic and emergent interactions between agents. In this article, we demonstrate ABM through an analysis of how cyclists and pedestrians might interact with Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) in future road transport systems. Abbreviations: ABM: agent-based model; AV: autonomous vehicle; ODD; overview, design concepts and details; RW: rescorla-wagner.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason Thompson
- Transport, Health and Urban Design Research Hub, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems, University of the Sunshine Coast, Sunshine Coast, Australia
| | - Gemma J M Read
- Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems, University of the Sunshine Coast, Sunshine Coast, Australia
| | - Jasper S Wijnands
- Transport, Health and Urban Design Research Hub, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Paul M Salmon
- Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems, University of the Sunshine Coast, Sunshine Coast, Australia
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15
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Welsh C, Celis-Morales CA, Ho F, Lyall DM, Mackay D, Ferguson L, Sattar N, Gray SR, Gill JMR, Pell JP, Welsh P. Association of injury related hospital admissions with commuting by bicycle in the UK: prospective population based study. BMJ 2020; 368:m336. [PMID: 32161038 PMCID: PMC7190046 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m336] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To determine whether bicycle commuting is associated with risk of injury. DESIGN Prospective population based study. SETTING UK Biobank. PARTICIPANTS 230 390 commuters (52.1% women; mean age 52.4 years) recruited from 22 sites across the UK compared by mode of transport used (walking, cycling, mixed mode versus non-active (car or public transport)) to commute to and from work on a typical day. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE First incident admission to hospital for injury. RESULTS 5704 (2.5%) participants reported cycling as their main form of commuter transport. Median follow-up was 8.9 years (interquartile range 8.2-9.5 years), and overall 10 241 (4.4%) participants experienced an injury. Injuries occurred in 397 (7.0%) of the commuters who cycled and 7698 (4.3%) of the commuters who used a non-active mode of transport. After adjustment for major confounding sociodemographic, health, and lifestyle factors, cycling to work was associated with a higher risk of injury compared with commuting by a non-active mode (hazard ratio 1.45, 95% confidence interval 1.30 to 1.61). Similar trends were observed for commuters who used mixed mode cycling. Walking to work was not associated with a higher risk of injury. Longer cycling distances during commuting were associated with a higher risk of injury, but commute distance was not associated with injury in non-active commuters. Cycle commuting was also associated with a higher number of injuries when the external cause was a transport related incident (incident rate ratio 3.42, 95% confidence interval 3.00 to 3.90). Commuters who cycled to work had a lower risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and death than those who did not. If the associations are causal, an estimated 1000 participants changing their mode of commuting to include cycling for 10 years would result in 26 additional admissions to hospital for a first injury (of which three would require a hospital stay of a week or longer), 15 fewer first cancer diagnoses, four fewer cardiovascular disease events, and three fewer deaths. CONCLUSION Compared with non-active commuting to work, commuting by cycling was associated with a higher risk of hospital admission for a first injury and higher risk of transport related incidents specifically. These risks should be viewed in context of the health benefits of active commuting and underscore the need for a safer infrastructure for cycling in the UK.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claire Welsh
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, Glasgow, G12 8TA, UK
| | - Carlos A Celis-Morales
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, Glasgow, G12 8TA, UK
- Centre for Exercise Physiology Research (CIFE), Universidad Mayor, Santiago, San Pío, Chile
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Frederick Ho
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, Glasgow, G12 8TA, UK
| | - Donald M Lyall
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Daniel Mackay
- School of Medicine, Dentistry and Nursing, University of Glasgow, UK
| | - Lyn Ferguson
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, Glasgow, G12 8TA, UK
| | - Naveed Sattar
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, Glasgow, G12 8TA, UK
| | - Stuart R Gray
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, Glasgow, G12 8TA, UK
| | - Jason M R Gill
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, Glasgow, G12 8TA, UK
| | - Jill P Pell
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Paul Welsh
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, Glasgow, G12 8TA, UK
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16
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Grayson A, Totzkay DS, Walling BM, Ingalls J, Viken G, Smith SW, Silk KJ. Formative research identifying message strategies for a campus bicycle safety campaign using self-determination theory and the social norms approach. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2019; 133:105295. [PMID: 31590093 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.105295] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2018] [Revised: 06/15/2019] [Accepted: 09/09/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
This formative study investigates the utility of the social norms approach (SNA) and self-determination theory (SDT) in framing safe bicycling messages with the goal of increasing intention to use bicycle lanes on a university campus. In Study 1, observational data showed that the majority of campus bicyclists did not use designated bike lanes while cycling; thus, intention to use bicycle lanes was chosen as the dependent variable for Study 2. Survey data (n = 168) collected from college students measured SNA and SDT constructs related to intention to use bicycle lanes, including descriptive norms, injunctive norms, autonomy, competence, and relatedness. Results indicate that different aspects of both the SNA and SDT are viable approaches for developing bicycle safety campaign messages, as competence, relatedness, and injunctive norms were significant predictors of intention to use bicycle lanes. Implications for the development of campaign messages are discussed, and information is presented to assist other groups so they can use the same process to develop relevant campaign messages.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew Grayson
- Klein Buendel, Inc. 1667 Cole Blvd. Ste. 225, Golden, CO 80401 United States.
| | - Daniel S Totzkay
- West Virginia University, Department of Communication Studies, 108 Armstrong Hall, P.O. Box 6293 Morgantown, WV 26506, United States.
| | - Brandon M Walling
- Michigan State University, College of Communication Arts and Sciences, Department of Communication, 404 Wilson Road, Room 473, East Lansing, MI, 48824.
| | - Jalyn Ingalls
- Colorado Health Institute, 303 E. 17th Avenue, Suite 930, Denver, CO 80203 United State.
| | - Greg Viken
- PO Box 130, Buies Creek, NC 27506 United State.
| | - Sandi W Smith
- Michigan State University, College of Communication Arts and Sciences, Department of Communication, 404 Wilson Road, Room 473, East Lansing, MI, 48824 United State.
| | - Kami J Silk
- University of Delaware, Department of Communication, 250 Pearson Hall, Newark, DE 19716, USA.
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Abstract
Automated vehicles (AVs) are expected to assist in decreasing road traffic fatalities, particularly among passenger cars. However, until now limited research has been conducted on how they will impact the safety of vulnerable road users (VRUs) (i.e., cyclists and pedestrians). Therefore, there is a clear need to start taking into account the interactions between AVs and VRUs as an integrated element of the transport network, especially in urban areas where they are dominant. The objective of this study is to verify whether the anticipated implementation of AVs can actually improve cyclists’ safety. For this purpose, the microscopic traffic flow simulation software PTV Vissim combined with the surrogate safety assessment model (SSAM) were utilized. The road network used for this analysis was generated based on a real study case in a medium-sized city in Belgium, where narrow streets in the city center are shared on many occasions between vehicles and cyclists. The findings of the analysis show a notable reduction in the total number of conflicts between cars, but also between cars and cyclists, compared to the current situation, assuming a 100% market penetration scenario for AVs. Moreover, the severity level of conflicts also decreased as a result of the lack of human-driven vehicles in the traffic streams.
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