Predicted altitudinal shifts and reduced spatial distribution of Leishmania infantum vector species under climate change scenarios in Colombia

Canine leishmaniosis global prevalence over the last three decades: a meta-analysis and systematic review

Leishmaniosis by Leishmania infantum is a zoonotic vector-borne disease transmitted to humans and dogs by the bite of female sand-flies. The domestic dog is the main reservoir and infected dogs may show or not clinical symptoms. The prevalence of infection in dogs varies according to the population studied, the geographic area, and the diagnostics employed. This study aims to estimate the global prevalence, subgrouping per continent, country, diagnostic test and selected risk factors. Cross-sectional studies (n=150; from 1990 to 2020) estimating the prevalence of the infection by Leishmania infantum were extracted from four electronic databases. The pooled global prevalence obtained by random-effects meta-analysis was 15.2 % (95 %CI 13.6-16.9), mostly in rural (19.5 %) and owned dogs (16.5 %). Prevalence varied if the diagnosis was made by western blot (WB, 32.9 %), cellular immunity tests (27.5 %), ELISA (17 %), PCR (16.9 %), IFAT (15.9 %), rapid tests and direct agglutination test (DAT, 11.5 %), cytology/immunohistochemistry (13.1 %), culture (8.6 %). A small studies bias (P<0.005) in the overall prevalence meta-analysis, due to the impact of small-size studies on the overall results was found. Moreover, a continent-related bias was found regarding rapid test, DAT (P=0.021), and WB (P<0.001), as these assays are mainly used in South American studies. A study period bias (P=0.033) and a publication year bias (P=0.002) were detected for PCR, as the test was not employed before the year 2000. In conclusion, a high prevalence of canine leishmaniosis worldwide and high heterogeneity among studies were found.

Ecological determinants of leishmaniasis vector, Lutzomyia spp.: A scoping review

Leishmania spp. are zoonotic parasites transmitted by phlebotomine sand flies, including those of the Lutzomyia genus, which can cause leishmaniases in both humans and dogs. Lutzomyia spp. are established in many countries in South and Central America and some areas of the southern United States, with suspected potential of these vectors to undergo further range expansion due to climate change. A scoping review was conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extensions for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) guidelines to describe the current state of knowledge on the key ecological factors associated with Lutzomyia spp. survival, reproduction and establishment. The following electronic databases were searched for eligible studies published from 1 January 1990, to the date of search, 26 April 2023: CAB Direct (CABI), MEDLINE (via Ovid), Biological Sciences Database and Environmental Sciences Database. Primary research articles that were available in English and focused on ecological factors associated with Lutzomyia spp., such as climatic and habitat factors, geographic range, seasonality and temporality, and host abundance, were eligible for inclusion in the study. Following de-duplication, a total of 167 studies were included in Level 1 screening, 64 studies were included in Level 2 screening and 31 studies met the criteria for data extraction. Study locations included Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, the United States, Mexico and Canada, with some studies including multiple regions. A total of 31 different Lutzomyia spp. were assessed across these studies, with most (51.6%) of the studies focused on Lutzomyia longipalpis. Eligible studies investigated factors such as seasonality (n = 5), temperature (n = 19), precipitation (n = 13), humidity (n = 2), vegetation presence or requirements (n = 13), ecotypes (n = 7), and/or community type (i.e., urban, suburban, rural) (n = 5). Lutzomyia spp. activity was found to be higher during the rainy season, and peak when temperatures were between 20 and 25°C. Lutzomyia spp. were also found to preferentially reside in tropical or subtropical forests, which are characterised by their lack of a distinct dry season and high precipitation. This scoping review summarised the current state of the literature on the ecological factors associated with the survival, activity and reproduction of Lutzomyia spp. While there appears to be some consensus in the literature regarding some ecological requirements (such as seasonality, temperature and habitat features), overall, there is a lack of published research in this topic. This poses a significant challenge for future studies, which aim to predict the future distribution of Lutzomyia spp. in the context of climate and land use changes. Additional ecological research is urgently needed on Lutzomyia spp. given their relevance to both human and animal health.

Modeling impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution and abundances of Tamarindus indica in Tigray region, Ethiopia

Tamarindus indica is a multipurpose dry land species in sub-Saharan that is traditionally used to build resilience into the farming system. The species is highly threatened and listed on the IUCN Red List. However, information on how climatic condition locally influences its ecological distribution is limited. This study investigates the current and future suitable habitat for the species in the Tigray region, in northern Ethiopia. A total of 220 species presence points and the number of T. indica within a 50 m × 50 m plot were collected. In addition, 19 bioclimatic variables, 3 topographic variables and soil data were used to model the impact of future climate conditions under two Representative Concentration Path Ways (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5). MaxEnt-v-3.3.3 k, Diva-GIS-7.5, and GIS10.6 were used to model the current and future distribution. SPSSv-26 was also utilized to analyze the relationship between the species' abundance and environmental variables. Results showed that the environmental variables determining most for the distribution of T. indica were mean diurnal range (Bio2 (56.9%)); temperature seasonality (Bio4 (10.3%)) and temperature annual range (Bio7 (9.2%)). The model suggested that the current distribution of T. indica covers an area of 9209 km² (14.04%). This would have increased to 29,363 km² (44.78%) and 11,046 km² (16.85%) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Compared to the high-impact areas, new gains of suitable areas (net 25,081 km²) for the future distribution of the species were predicted in 2070-RCP4.5. Altitude, rainfall, temperature, silt contents of soils and soil pH have significant contributions (P-value<0.05) to the abundance of T. indica. However, altitude has a negative relationship with the abundance of T. indica. Additional studies to understand population trends and other threats are recommended.

Similarity but not equivalence: Ecological niche comparison between sandflies from the Pleistocene and future scenarios in Central and South America

Sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) are suspected or proven vectors of Leishmania spp. in the American region. Understanding niche conservatism (NC) in insect vectors allows an understanding of constraints on adaptive responses, and thus implications for disease ecology. Therefore, in this study, the authors evaluated NC in three vector species of leishmaniasis (Lutzomyia gomezi, Psathyromyia shannoni and Pintomyia ovallesi) in Central and South America. For this, the authors performed niche identity and similarity testing through paired comparisons in ENMTools and niche overlap in Niche Analyst. The authors found that species niches were more similar to each other than if the points had been randomly extracted, and they also found extensive similarity between Pa. shannoni and Lu. gomezi niches and in Pa. shannoni niches over different timescales. The authors suggest Pa. shannoni as a priority species due to fundamental niche similarity with phylogenetically related species and also its extensive evolutionary history and ecological plasticity that could affect the emergence and resurgence of leishmaniasis in areas endemic by this vector.

Altitudinal distribution and species richness of triatomines (Hemiptera:Reduviidae) in Colombia

BACKGROUND

Chagas disease is considered to be endemic in up to 40% of the territory of Colombia, and to date 27 triatomine species have been reported the country. The purpose of this study was to update the geographical distribution of triatomine species in Colombia and assess the species richness patterns and their altitudinal distribution.

METHODS

Occurrence data were compiled between 2007 and 2020, including from reports of entomological surveillance from the Instituto Nacional de Salud (INS), the Centro de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Tropical (CIMPAT) at Universidad de Los Andes and a review of the literature. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to describe general species richness patterns of the Triatominae subfamily. To establish the altitudinal distribution of the triatomine species, ranges were obtained from reports with unique elevation values. A generalized linear model was fitted, based on a Poisson distribution, to test the relation between triatomine species richness and Chagas disease cases (2012-2019).

RESULTS

An updated geographical and altitudinal distribution for triatomine species in Colombia was established, with 507 municipalities added to the previously known distributions. The greatest triatomine richness in Colombia was found to be concentrated in the northeastern region of the country, extending towards the center to the departments of Arauca, Casanare and Meta. Regarding the altitudinal distribution, the study revealed that the species Rhodnius prolixus and Triatoma dimidiata have the greatest altitudinal ranges. The data also suggest a positive relation between species richness and number of Chagas disease cases reported per department.

CONCLUSIONS

Altitudinal ranges for 17 triatomine species found in Colombia are presented. Species richness and species composition patterns are also described, and areas with a higher risk of transmission based on the relation found with Chagas disease cases are highlighted. This updated distribution reveals that Panstrongylus geniculatus is the triatomine with the largest presence by municipalities in Colombia, being reported in 284 municipalities, followed by Rhodnius prolixus in 277 municipalities.

Models of spatial analysis for vector-borne diseases studies: A systematic review

Background and Aim: Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) constitute a global problem for humans and animals. Knowledge related to the spatial distribution of various species of vectors and their relationship with the environment where they develop is essential to understand the current risk of VBDs and for planning surveillance and control strategies in the face of future threats. This study aimed to identify models, variables, and factors that may influence the emergence and resurgence of VBDs and how these factors can affect spatial local and global distribution patterns. Materials and Methods: A systematic review was designed based on identification, screening, selection, and inclusion described in the research protocols according to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses guide. A literature search was performed in PubMed, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and SciELO using the following search strategy: Article type: Original research, Language: English, Publishing period: 2010–2020, Search terms: Spatial analysis, spatial models, VBDs, climate, ecologic, life cycle, climate variability, vector-borne, vector, zoonoses, species distribution model, and niche model used in different combinations with "AND" and "OR." Results: The complexity of the interactions between climate, biotic/abiotic variables, and non-climate factors vary considerably depending on the type of disease and the particular location. VBDs are among the most studied types of illnesses related to climate and environmental aspects due to their high disease burden, extended presence in tropical and subtropical areas, and high susceptibility to climate and environment variations. Conclusion: It is difficult to generalize our knowledge of VBDs from a geospatial point of view, mainly because every case is inherently independent in variable selection, geographic coverage, and temporal extension. It can be inferred from predictions that as global temperatures increase, so will the potential trend toward extreme events. Consequently, it will become a public health priority to determine the role of climate and environmental variations in the incidence of infectious diseases. Our analysis of the information, as conducted in this work, extends the review beyond individual cases to generate a series of relevant observations applicable to different models.

The alteration of the suitability patterns of Leishmania infantum due to climate change in Iran

Leishmaniasis is the most important parasitic infection in Iran. The aim of this study was to model the changing suitability patterns of Leishmania infantum, the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis for the 21^st century in the country. Temperature, precipitation, and aridity-nature distribution limiting bioclimatic variables were involved in the ecological modelling. The altitudinal trends were considered by using 100 m bars. In Iran, the topographical patterns strongly impact the changing patterns of the suitability of L. infantum due to climate change. In general, climate change will decrease the parasite's suitability in the areas at low altitudes and increase in the middle and higher elevation regions. Increasing values are mainly predicted in the West, the decreasing suitability values in the East part of Iran. The altitudinal shifts and the reduced spatial distribution of L. infantum in the arid regions of East and Central Iran were modelled.

Predictive modeling of sand fly distribution incriminated in the transmission of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis and the incidence of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in the state of Paraná, Brazil

Southern Brazil concentrates a considerable number of cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis reported since 1980, and Paraná is the state that most records CL cases in the region. The main sand fly species incriminated as vectors of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis (Vianna,1911) are Migonemyia (Migonemyia) migonei (França, 1920), Nyssomyia (Nyssomyia) neivai (Pinto, 1926) and Nyssomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani (Antunes & Coutinho, 1936). In this study, we evaluated areas with climatic suitability for the distribution of these vectors and correlated these data with CL incidence in the state. The occurrence points of Mg. migonei, Ny. neivai, and Ny. whitmani were extracted from a literature review and field data. For CL analysis in the state of Paraná, data were obtained from the Informatics Department of the Unified Health System of Brazil (DATASUS), covering the period from 2001 to 2019. The layers of bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were used in the study. Species distribution modeling was developed using the MaxEnt Software version 3.4.4. ArcGIS software version 10.5 was used to develop suitability maps and the graphical representation of disease incidence. The AUC values were acceptable for all models (> 0,8). Bioclimatic variables BIO13 and BIO14 were the most influential in the distribution of Mg. migonei, while BIO19 and BIO6 were the variables that most influenced the distribution of Ny. neivai, and Ny. whitmani was most influenced by variables BIO5 and BIO9. During 19 years, 4992 cases of CL were reported in the state by 286 municipalities (71,6%). Northern Paraná showed the highest number of areas with very high and high climatic suitability for the occurrence of these species, coinciding with the highest number of CL cases. The modeling tools allowed analyzing the association between climatic variables and the geographical distribution of CL in the state. Moreover, they provided a better understanding of the climatic conditions related to the distribution of different species, favoring the monitoring of risk areas, the implementation of preventive measures, risk awareness, early and accurate diagnosis, and consequent timely treatment.

Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Dry Forest Fauna

Tropical dry forests are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world, and those occurring in the insular Caribbean are particularly vulnerable. Climate change represents a significant threat for the Caribbean region and for small islands like Jamaica. Using the Hellshire Hills protected area in Jamaica, a simple model was developed to project future abundance of arthropods and lizards based on current sensitivities to climate variables derived from rainfall and temperature records. The abundances of 20 modelled taxa were predicted more often by rainfall variables than temperature, but both were found to have strong impacts on arthropod and lizard abundance. Most taxa were projected to decrease in abundance by the end of the century under drier and warmer conditions. Where an increase in abundance was projected under a low emissions scenario, this change was reduced or reversed under a high emissions climate change scenario. The validation process showed that, even for a small population, there was reasonable skill in predicting its annual variability. Results of this study show that this simple model can be used to identify the vulnerability of similar sites to the effects of shifting climate and, by extension, their conservation needs.

The potential impact of climate change on the seasonality of Phlebotomus neglectus, the vector of visceral leishmaniasis in the East Mediterranean region

Phlebotomus neglectus is one of the most important vectors of visceral leishmaniasis in Southeast Europe and Asia Minor. It was aimed to study the impact of climate change on the seasonality and the range of the species for 2014-2060. In the inland areas of Asia Minor, the Balkan Peninsula and the Carpathian Basin the elongation of the activity season will reach or exceed the two months in the middle of the 21st century compared to the end of the 20th century. The most affected regions are the middle elevations of the mountainous regions and the plains of the northern distribution areas. In some areas of the southern distribution border, the season is expected to shorten. In the Apennine Peninsula, mainly the mountainous areas could be impacted notably by climate change. The results indicate the potential spread of leishmaniasis in Southeast Europe due to the increasing environmental suitability of the region.

Challenges in the control of neglected insect vector diseases of human importance in the Anglo-Caribbean

INTRODUCTION

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in developing countries like the Caribbean, negatively affect multiple income-generating sectors, including the tourism industry upon which island states are highly dependent. Insect-transmitted NTDs include, but are not limited to, malaria, dengue and lymphatic filariasis. Control measures for these disease, are often ignored because of the associated cost. Many of the developing country members are thus retained in a financially crippling cycle, balancing the cost of prophylactic measures with that of controlling an outbreak.The purpose of the paper is to bring awareness to NTDs transmitted by insects of importance to humans, and to assess factors affecting such control, in the English-speaking Caribbean.

METHOD

Comprehensive literature review on reports pertaining to NTDs transmitted by insects in the Caribbean and Latin America was conducted. Data search was carried out on PubMed, and WHO and PAHO websites.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

Potential risk factors for NTDs transmitted by arthropods in the English-speaking Caribbean are summarised. The mosquito appears to be the main insect-vector of human importance within the region of concern. Arthropod-vectors of diseases of veterinary importance are also relevant because they affect the livelihood of farmers, in highly agriculture based economies. Other NTDs may also be in circulation gauged by the presence of antibodies in Caribbean individuals. However, routine diagnostic tests for specific diseases are expensive and tests may not be conducted when diseases are not prevalent in the population. It appears that only a few English-speaking Caribbean countries have examined secondary reservoirs of pathogens or assessed the effectivity of their insect control methods. As such, disease risk assessment appears incomplete. Although continuous control is financially demanding, an integrated and multisectoral approach might help to deflect the cost. Such interventions are now being promoted by health agencies within the region and various countries are creating and exploring the use of novel tools to be incorporated in their insect-vector control programmes.

Revisiting the heterogeneous global genomic population structure of Leishmania infantum

Leishmania infantum is the main causative agent responsible for visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a disease with global distribution. The genomic structure and genetic variation of this species have been widely studied in different parts of the world. However, in some countries, this information is still yet unknown, as is the genomic behaviour of the main antigens used in VL diagnosis (rK39 and rK28), which have demonstrated variable sensitivity and specificity in a manner dependent on the geographic region analysed. The objective of this study was to explore the genomic architecture and diversity of four Colombian L. infantum isolates obtained in this study and to compare these results with the genetic analysis of 183 L. infantum isolates from across the world (obtained from public databases), as well as to analyse the whole rK39 and rK28 antigen sequences in our dataset. The results showed that, at the global level, L. infantum has high genetic homogeneity and extensive aneuploidy. Furthermore, we demonstrated that there are distinct populations of L. infantum circulating in various countries throughout the globe and that populations of distant countries have close genomic relationships. Additionally, this study demonstrated the high genetic variability of the rK28 antigen worldwide. In conclusion, our study allowed us to (i) expand our knowledge of the genomic structure of global L. infantum; (ii) describe the intra-specific genomic variability of this species; and (iii) understand the genomic characteristics of the main antigens used in the diagnosis of VL. Additionally, this is the first study to report whole-genome sequences of Colombian L. infantum isolates.

Human visceral leishmaniasis in Central-Western Brazil: Spatial patterns and its correlation with socioeconomic aspects, environmental indices and canine infection

In this ecological study, we investigated spatial patterns of human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence, its correlation with socioeconomic aspects, environmental indices (obtained through remote sensing) and canine VL during 2011-2016 in the municipality of Rondonópolis, a relevant endemic area for VL in Central-Western Brazil. Human VL cases were georeferenced and point patterns were analyzed by univariate Ripley's K function and Kernel density estimation (KDE). Poisson-based scan statistics were used to investigate spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of human VL incidence at the neighborhood level. Socioeconomic and environmental characteristics were compared between neighborhoods within and outside spatial human VL clusters. Also, we assessed the correlation between smoothed human VL incidence and canine VL seropositivity rates within and between neighborhoods. Human VL cases were clustered up to 2000 m; four hotspots were identified by KDE in peripheral areas. Spatial and spatiotemporal low-risk clusters for human VL were identified in central and southern areas. Neighborhoods within spatial low-risk cluster presented higher mean income, literacy rate, sanitary sewage service coverage and lower altitude, compared to the rest of the municipality. A positive correlation was found between the occurrence of human and canine VL. On the northern outskirts, high human VL incidence was spatially correlated with high canine VL seropositivity in surrounding neighborhoods. In conclusion, human VL demonstrated a heterogeneous, aggregated and peripheral spatial pattern. This distribution was correlated with intra-urban socioeconomic differences and canine VL seropositivity at the neighborhood level.

The impact of climate change on neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a diverse group of diseases that continue to affect >1 billion people, with these diseases disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations and territories. Climate change is having an increasing impact on public health in tropical and subtropical areas and across the world and can affect disease distribution and transmission in potentially diverse ways. Improving our understanding of how climate change influences NTDs can help identify populations at risk to include in future public health interventions. Articles were identified by searching electronic databases for reports of climate change and NTDs between 1 January 2010 and 1 March 2020. Climate change may influence the emergence and re-emergence of multiple NTDs, particularly those that involve a vector or intermediate host for transmission. Although specific predictions are conflicting depending on the geographic area, the type of NTD and associated vectors and hosts, it is anticipated that multiple NTDs will have changes in their transmission period and geographic range and will likely encroach on regions and populations that have been previously unaffected. There is a need for improved surveillance and monitoring to identify areas of NTD incursion and emergence and include these in future public health interventions.

Genomic Diversification, Structural Plasticity, and Hybridization in Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis

Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis is an important Leishmania species circulating in several Central and South American countries. Among Leishmania species circulating in Brazil, Argentina and Colombia, L. braziliensis has the highest genomic variability. However, genomic variability at the whole genome level has been only studied in Brazilian and Peruvian isolates; to date, no Colombian isolates have been studied. Considering that in Colombia, L. braziliensis is a species with great clinical and therapeutic relevance, as well as the role of genetic variability in the epidemiology of leishmaniasis, we analyzed and evaluated intraspecific genomic variability of L. braziliensis from Colombian and Bolivian isolates and compared them with Brazilian isolates. Twenty-one genomes were analyzed, six from Colombian patients, one from a Bolivian patient, and 14 Brazilian isolates downloaded from public databases. The results obtained of Phylogenomic analysis showed the existence of four well-supported clades, which evidenced intraspecific variability. The whole-genome analysis revealed structural variations in the somy, mainly in the Brazilian genomes (clade 1 and clade 3), low copy number variations, and a moderate number of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in all genomes analyzed. Interestingly, the genomes belonging to clades 2 and 3 from Colombia and Brazil, respectively, were characterized by low heterozygosity (~90% of SNP loci were homozygous) and regions suggestive of loss of heterozygosity (LOH). Additionally, we observed the drastic whole genome loss of heterozygosity and possible hybridization events in one genome belonging to clade 4. Unique/shared SNPs between and within the four clades were identified, revealing the importance of some of them in biological processes of L. braziliensis. Our analyses demonstrate high genomic variability of L. braziliensis in different regions of South America, mainly in Colombia and suggest that this species exhibits striking genomic diversity and a capacity of genomic hybridization; additionally, this is the first study to report whole-genome sequences of Colombian L. braziliensis isolates.

Classification of daily weather types in Colombia: a tool to evaluate human health risks due to temperature variability

The building of knowledge about current risks from changes in air temperature has been established as critical for informing the starting point for human health risk assessments in a climate-changing world. The study presented in this paper provides the application of the maximum/minimum temperature complex method in Colombia to identify the simultaneous behavior of daily extremes of air temperature and provide a tool to assess human health risks due to temperature variability. An established classification of mean temperatures exists for the country, and maximum and minimum temperatures have been studied but never as simultaneous variables. The max/min temperature complex analysis aims to describe the air temperature regime of a particular place by studying the frequency of simultaneous occurrence of extreme daily temperatures. The study consisted of the construction of a contingency table that combines the behavior of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures using a subdivision of 5 °C intervals. A 5-year (2010-2015)-long dataset of 171 weather stations from the entire territory was prepared by identifying, filtering, and completing the missing data. Frequencies of occurrence of each interval were arranged in descending order to select the intervals of frequencies above 10%. Then, they were classified into categories, types, and subtypes. Six categories, seven types, and fifty-one subtypes were identified and mapped to ascertain their geographical distribution. In contrast with other climate regime classifications, our study found a regionalization of daily extremes of temperature that can be analyzed in different scales of time and space to aid health risk analysis.

Assessing geographic and climatic variables to predict the potential distribution of the visceral leishmaniasis vector Lutzomyia longipalpis in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease caused by the protozoa Leishmania chagasi, whose main vector in South America is Lutzomyia longipalpis. The disease was diagnosed in the Brazilian state of Espírito Santo (ES) for the first time in 1968. Currently, this disease has been considered endemic in 10 municipalities. Furthermore, the presence of L. longipalpis has been detected in eight other municipalities where the transmission has not been reported thus far. In this study, we performed species distribution modeling (SDM) to identify new and most likely receptive areas for VL transmission in ES. The sandflies were both actively and passively collected in various rural area of ES between 1986 and 2017. The collection points were georeferenced using a global positioning system device. Climatic data were retrieved from the WorldClim database, whereas geographic data were obtained from the National Institute for Space Research and the Integrated System of Geospatial Bases of the State of Espírito Santo. The maximum entropy algorithm was used through the MIAmaxent R package to train and test the distribution models for L. longipalpis. The major contributor to model generation was rocky outcrops, followed by temperature seasonality. The SDM predicted the expansion of the L. longipalpis-prone area in the Doce River Valley and limited the probability of expanding outside its watershed. Once the areas predicted suitable for L. longipalpis occurrence are determined, we can avoid the inefficient use of public resources in conducting canine serological surveys where the vector insect does not occur.

Effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle on the potential distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis vector species in Colombia

Local anomalies in rainfall and temperature induced by El Niño and La Niña episodes could change the structure of the vector community. We aimed to estimate the effect of the El Niño–La Niña cycle in the potential distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) vector species in Colombia and to compare the richness of the vectors with the occurrence of CL in the state of Norte de Santander. The potential distributions of four species were modeled using a MaxEnt algorithm for the following episodes: La Niña 2010–2011, Neutral 2012–2015 and El Niño 2015–2016. The relationship between the potential richness of the vectors and the occurrence of CL in Norte de Santander was evaluated with a log-binomial regression model. During the El Niño 2015–2016 episode, Lutzomyia ovallesi and Lutzomyia panamensis increased their distribution into environmentally suitable areas, and three vector species (Lutzomyia gomezi, Lutzomyia ovallesi and Lutzomyia panamensis) showed increases in the range of their altitudinal distribution. During the La Niña 2010–2011 episode, a reduction was observed in the area suitable for occupation by Lutzomyia gomezi and Lutzomyia spinicrassa. During the El Niño 2015–2016 episode, the occurrence of at least one CL case was related to a higher percentage of rural localities showing a richness of vectors = 4. The anomalies in rainfall and temperature induced by the episodes produced changes in the potential distribution of CL vectors in Colombia. In Norte de Santander, during Neutral 2012–2015 and El Niño 2015–2016 episodes, a higher probability of at least one CL case was related to a higher percentage of areas with a greater richness of vectors. The results help clarify the effect of the El Niño–La Niña cycle in the dynamics of CL in Colombia and emphasize the need to monitor climate variability to improve the prediction of new cases.

The cutaneous leishmaniasis is a disease transmitted by insects. The incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis has increased in Colombia and the state of Norte de Santander is one of the Colombian states where cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission is high. Local changes in rainfall and temperature induced by El Niño and La Niña episodes could change the distribution of the vector. A database of published records and field collections of four vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Colombia was compiled. Also, a database with cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis from Norte de Santander was obtained. Maps of potential distribution in Colombia of the four vectors during the La Niña 2010–2011, Neutral 2012–2015 and El Niño 2015–2016 episodes were elaborated. During the El Niño 2015–2016 episode, two vector species increased their distribution into environmentally suitable areas, and three vector species showed increases in the range of their altitudinal distribution. During the La Niña 2010–2011 episode, a reduction was observed in the area suitable for occupation by two vectors. During the El Niño 2015–2016 episode, the occurrence of at least one cutaneous leishmaniasis case was related to a higher percentage of area with a predicted distribution of four vectors.

Effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on human visceral leishmaniasis in the Brazilian State of Mato Grosso do Sul

BACKGROUND

Leishmaniases are considered a major public health problem in South America, specifically in Brazil. Moreover, the transmission and epidemiology of leishmaniasis are possibly associated with climatic and environmental variations.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the association between the extreme climatic phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the maximum and minimum variations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture and the incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, from 2002 to 2015.

METHODS

The Niño 3.4 index was used for the ENSO variation. The other climatic data were obtained from the climatic tool TerraClimate. Records regarding VL were obtained from the Notification of Injury Information System.

FINDINGS

From 2002 to 2015, there were 3,137 cases of VL recorded in MS. The annual incidence of the disease was negatively associated with the ENSO index and soil moisture in MS. The VL incidence increased during the negative phase of ENSO and decreased during the positive phase.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

The results demonstrated that the interannual cycles of incidence of human VL are significantly associated with the occurrence of the ENSO phenomenon and its phases, El Niño and La Niña.

Intraspecific Genomic Divergence and Minor Structural Variations in Leishmania (Viannia) panamensis

Leishmania (Viannia) panamensis is one of the most important Leishmania species associated with cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Latin America. Despite its wide geographic distribution and pathogenic potential in humans and animals, the genomic variability of this species is low compared with other Leishmania species circulating in the same geographical area. No studies have reported a detailed analysis of the whole genome of L. panamensis from clinical isolates using DNA high-throughput sequencing to clarify its intraspecific genomic variability or plausible divergence. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the intraspecific genomic variability of L. panamensis from Colombia and Panama. A total of 22 genomes were analyzed, 19 from Colombian patients with CL and three genomes from Panama obtained from public databases. The phylogenomic analysis revealed the potential existence of three well-supported clades as evidence of intraspecific divergence. Additionally, the whole-genome analysis showed low structural variations in terms of ploidy, copy number variations, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). SNPs shared among all clades were identified, revealing their importance in different biological processes of L. panamensis. The findings not only expand our knowledge of intraspecific genomic variability of one of the most important Leishmania species in South America but also highlights the possible existence of different clades/lineages/subpopulations across a geographic scale.

Ecological niche models for sand fly species and predicted distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in Bahia state, Brazil

Visceral leishmaniasis is a public health problem in Brazil. This disease is endemic in most of Bahia state, with increasing reports of cases in new areas. Ecological niche models (ENM) can be used as a tool for predicting potential distribution for disease, vectors, and to identify risk factors associated with their distribution. In this study, ecological niche models (ENMs) were developed for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases and 12 sand fly species captured in Bahia state. Sand fly data was collected monthly by CDC light traps from July 2009 to December 2012. MODIS satellite imagery was used to calculate NDVI, NDMI, and NDWI vegetation indices, MODIS day and night land surface temperature (LST), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and 19 Bioclim variables were used to develop the ENM using the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Mean diurnal range was the variable that most contributed to all the models for sand flies, followed by precipitation in wettest month. For Lutzomyia longipalpis (L. longipalpis), annual precipitation, precipitation in wettest quarter, precipitation in wettest month, and NDVI were the most contributing variables. For the VL model, the variables that contributed most were precipitation in wettest month, annual precipitation, LST day, and temperature seasonality. L. longipalpis was the species with the widest potential distribution in the state. The identification of risk areas and factors associated with this distribution is fundamental to prioritize resource allocation and to improve the efficacy of the state's program for surveillance and control of VL.

Evaluating the spatial distribution of Leishmania parasites in Colombia from clinical samples and human isolates (1999 to 2016)

In Colombia, nine species of parasites of the genus Leishmania circulate in more than 20 sand fly species, putting at risk of contracting the disease approximately 60% of the population. The Federico Lleras Acosta Dermatological Center, a reference center in Colombia, has been treating patients with cutaneous and mucosal leishmaniasis for more than 15 years, identifying the infecting Leishmania species from different clinical samples, and recording systematically all the epidemiological and geographic information related to each diagnosed patient. With this valuable information, the objective of this work was to perform a long term and large-scale study, aiming to identify the Leishmania species circulating in Colombia from clinical samples from 1999 to 2016, and to assess their current and potential spatial distribution. In all, four Leishmania species were identified in 688 samples from 183 municipalities distributed in 28 of the 32 departments of the country, and 387 records were georeferenced, from 20 departments. The most widespread species was L. (V.) braziliensis, showing new collection records, and the species related to areas with highest leishmaniasis transmission was L. (V.) panamensis. Ecological niche models were built for the three species that had more than 20 georeferenced records, showing a potential distribution for L. (V.) braziliensis on 42% of the national territory mainly in the interandean valleys, and the Orinoquia and Amazon regions. Leishmania (V.) guyanensis potential distribution covers 36% of Colombia continental territory with a spatial distribution similar to that of L. (V.) braziliensis. There was a marked tendency of L. (V.) panamensis to be distributed in the northwest of the country occupying 35% of the national area and mainly in areas of transformed ecosystems. Species were identified in patients from areas where the occurrence of cases was unprecedented, which suggests that the distribution of Leishmania may be greater than currently known. To improve the predictive capacity of the models, we suggest incorporating, in future studies, Leishmania samples from vectors and reservoirs that have a greater dependence on environmental variables. Our results are an important tool for health systems because they allow potential areas of transmission and information gaps to be identified.

Current status and management of canine leishmaniasis in Latin America

Latin America encompasses diverse geographical, cultural and socio-economic conditions, which are reflected in the challenges for infectious disease control in the region. One of the most significant regional infectious diseases for humans and domestic dogs is leishmaniasis, occurring as visceral leishmaniasis (VL) caused by Leishmania infantum (syn. L. chagasi) transmitted by sand flies (Lutzomyia longipalpis) and with a canine reservoir, and the more common cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) involving multiple Leishmania spp. (particularly L. braziliensis), sand fly vectors and reservoir hosts. VL is spreading within Latin America for reasons related to mass migration of human and canine populations, with incursion into novel environments (e.g. related to deforestation) coupled with a background of poverty and poor public health infrastructure. The challenges for control of VL also include: (1) the accurate identification of infected dogs (particularly subclinically infected dogs) with the current reliance on serological rather than molecular diagnostic methods, (2) controversy surrounding the ethics and efficacy of culling of seropositive dogs, (3) the limited efficacy of currently available canine vaccines and their potential to interfere with interpretation of serological testing, (4) the expense associated with distribution of insecticidal dog collars, which may prove to be the most valuable control method, and (5) the cost and therefore accessibility of licensed medical treatment for canine leishmaniasis by the general population. Resolution of these isssues will necessitate a 'One Health' approach to co-ordination of resources between human and veterinary healthcare.

Climate Change and the Neglected Tropical Diseases

Climate change is expected to impact across every domain of society, including health. The majority of the world's population is susceptible to pathological, infectious disease whose life cycles are sensitive to environmental factors across different physical phases including air, water and soil. Nearly all so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) fall into this category, meaning that future geographic patterns of transmission of dozens of infections are likely to be affected by climate change over the short (seasonal), medium (annual) and long (decadal) term. This review offers an introduction into the terms and processes deployed in modelling climate change and reviews the state of the art in terms of research into how climate change may affect future transmission of NTDs. The 34 infections included in this chapter are drawn from the WHO NTD list and the WHO blueprint list of priority diseases. For the majority of infections, some evidence is available of which environmental factors contribute to the population biology of parasites, vectors and zoonotic hosts. There is a general paucity of published research on the potential effects of decadal climate change, with some exceptions, mainly in vector-borne diseases.

Diversity patterns, Leishmania DNA detection, and bloodmeal identification of Phlebotominae sand flies in villages in northern Colombia

Leishmaniases are neglected tropical diseases exhibiting complex transmission cycles due to the number of parasite species circulating, sand fly species acting as vectors and infected mammals, including humans, which are defined in the New World as accidental hosts. However, current transmission scenarios are changing, and the disease is no longer exclusively related to forested areas but urban transmission foci occur, involving some species of domestic animals as suspected reservoirs. The aim of this study was to determine the transmission cycles in urban environments by evaluating sand fly diversity, detection of Leishmania DNA, and bloodmeal sources through intra and peridomestic collections. The study was carried out in Colombia, in 13 municipalities of Cordoba department, implementing a methodology that could be further used for the evaluation of vector-borne diseases in villages or towns. Our sampling design included 24 houses randomly selected in each of 15 villages distributed in 13 municipalities, which were sampled in two seasons in 2015 and 2016. Sand flies were collected using CDC light traps placed in intra and peridomestic habitats. In addition to the morphological identification, molecular identification through DNA barcodes was also performed. A total of 19,743 sand flies were collected and 13,848 of them (10,268 females and 3,580 males) were used in molecular procedures. Circulation of two known parasite species–Leishmania infantum and Leishmania panamensis was confirmed. Blood source analyses showed that sand flies fed on humans, particularly in the case of the known L. infantum vector, P. evansi; further analyses are advised to evaluate the reservoirs involved in parasite transmission. Our sampling design allowed us to evaluate potential transmission cycles on a department scale, by defining suspected vector species, parasite species present in different municipalities and feeding habits.

Mosquito-Borne Diseases: Advances in Modelling Climate-Change Impacts

Vector-borne diseases are on the rise globally. As the consequences of climate change are becoming evident, climate-based models of disease risk are of growing importance. Here, we review the current state-of-the-art in both mechanistic and correlative disease modelling, the data driving these models, the vectors and diseases covered, and climate models applied to assess future risk. We find that modelling techniques have advanced considerably, especially in terms of using ensembles of climate models and scenarios. Effects of extreme events, precipitation regimes, and seasonality on diseases are still poorly studied. Thorough validation of models is still a challenge and is complicated by a lack of field and laboratory data. On a larger scale, the main challenges today lie in cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral transfer of data and methods.

Land cover change during a period of extensive landscape restoration in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

Environmental change has been a topic of great interest over the last century due to its potential impact on ecosystem services that are fundamental for sustainable development and human well-being. Here, we assess and quantify the spatial and temporal variation in land cover in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), China. With high-resolution (30m) imagery from Landsat 4/5-TM and 8-OLI for the entire region, land cover maps of the region were created to explore local land cover changes in a spatially explicit way. The results suggest that land cover changes observed in NHAR from 1991 to 2015 reflect the main goals of a national policy implemented there to recover degraded landscapes. Forest, herbaceous vegetation and cultivated land increased by approximately 410,200ha, 708,600ha and 164,300ha, respectively. The largest relative land cover change over the entire study period was the increase in forestland. Forest growth resulted mainly from the conversion of herbaceous vegetation (53.8%) and cultivated land (30.8%). Accurate information on the local patterns of land cover in NHAR may contribute to the future establishment of better landscape policies for ecosystem management and protection. Spatially explicit information on land cover change may also help decision makers to understand and respond appropriately to emerging environmental risks for the local population.

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas-ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling

Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.

Influences of climate change on the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae)

This study explores the present day distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in relation to climate, and transfers the knowledge gained to likely future climatic conditions to predict changes in the species' potential distribution. We used ecological niche models calibrated based on occurrences of the species complex from across its known geographic range. Anticipated distributional changes varied by region, from stability to expansion or decline. Overall, models indicated no significant north-south expansion beyond present boundaries. However, some areas suitable both at present and in the future (e.g., Pacific coast of Ecuador and Peru) may offer opportunities for distributional expansion. Our models anticipated potential range expansion in southern Brazil and Argentina, but were variably successful in anticipating specific cases. The most significant climate-related change anticipated in the species' range was with regard to range continuity in the Amazon Basin, which is likely to increase in coming decades. Rather than making detailed forecasts of actual locations where Lu. longipalpis will appear in coming years, our models make interesting and potentially important predictions of broader-scale distributional tendencies that can inform heath policy and mitigation efforts.

Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru

The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis.

Environmental factors associated with the distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in endemic areas of Bangladesh: modeling the ecological niche

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a parasitic infection (also called kala-azar in South Asia) caused by Leishmania donovani that is a considerable threat to public health in the Indian subcontinent, including densely populated Bangladesh. The disease seriously affects the poorest subset of the population in the subcontinent. Despite the fact that the incidence of VL results in significant morbidity and mortality, its environmental determinants are relatively poorly understood, especially in Bangladesh. In this study, we have extracted a number of environmental variables obtained from a range of sources, along with human VL cases collected through several field visits, to model the distribution of disease which may then be used as a surrogate for determining the distribution of Phlebotomus argentipes vector, in hyperendemic and endemic areas of Mymensingh and Gazipur districts in Bangladesh. The analysis was carried out within an ecological niche model (ENM) framework using a maxent to explore the ecological requirements of the disease.

Results

The results suggest that VL in the study area can be predicted by precipitation during the warmest quarter of the year, land surface temperature (LST), and normalized difference water index (NDWI). As P. argentipes is the single proven vector of L. donovani in the study area, its distribution could reasonably be determined by the same environmental variables. The analysis further showed that the majority of VL cases were located in mauzas where the estimated probability of the disease occurrence was high. This may reflect the potential distribution of the disease and consequently P. argentipes in the study area.

Conclusions

The results of this study are expected to have important implications, particularly in vector control strategies and management of risk associated with this disease. Public health officials can use the results to prioritize their visits in specific areas. Further, the findings can be used as a baseline to model how the distribution of the disease caused by P. argentipes might change in the event of climatic and environmental changes that resulted from increased anthropogenic activities in Bangladesh and elsewhere.

Species-specific ecological niche modelling predicts different range contractions for Lutzomyia intermedia and a related vector of Leishmania braziliensis following climate change in South America

BACKGROUND

Before 1996 the phlebotomine sand fly Lutzomyia neivai was usually treated as a synonym of the morphologically similar Lutzomyia intermedia, which has long been considered a vector of Leishmania braziliensis, the causative agent of much cutaneous leishmaniasis in South America. This report investigates the likely range changes of both sand fly species in response to a stabilisation climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and a high greenhouse gas emissions one (RCP8.5).

METHODS

Ecological niche modelling was used to identify areas of South America with climates currently suitable for each species, and then the future distributions of these climates were predicted based on climate change scenarios. Compared with the previous ecological niche model of L. intermedia (sensu lato) produced using the GARP algorithm in 2003, the current investigation modelled the two species separately, making use of verified presence records and additional records after 2001. Also, the new ensemble approach employed ecological niche modelling algorithms (including Maximum Entropy, Random Forests and Support Vector Machines) that have been widely adopted since 2003 and perform better than GARP, as well as using a more recent climate change model (HadGEM2) considered to have better performance at higher resolution than the earlier one (HadCM2).

RESULTS

Lutzomyia intermedia was shown to be the more tropical of the two species, with its climatic niche defined by higher annual mean temperatures and lower temperature seasonality, in contrast to the more subtropical L. neivai. These different latitudinal ranges explain the two species' predicted responses to climate change by 2050, with L. intermedia mostly contracting its range (except perhaps in northeast Brazil) and L. neivai mostly shifting its range southwards in Brazil and Argentina. This contradicts the findings of the 2003 report, which predicted more range expansion. The different findings can be explained by the improved data sets and modelling methods.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that climate change will not always lead to range expansion of disease vectors such as sand flies. Ecological niche models should be species specific, carefully selected and combined in an ensemble approach.

Risk analysis and prediction of visceral leishmaniasis dispersion in São Paulo State, Brazil

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important neglected disease caused by a protozoan parasite, and represents a serious public health problem in many parts of the world. It is zoonotic in Europe and Latin America, where infected dogs constitute the main domestic reservoir for the parasite and play a key role in VL transmission to humans. In Brazil this disease is caused by the protozoan Leishmania infantum chagasi, and is transmitted by the sand fly Lutzomyia longipalpis. Despite programs aimed at eliminating infection sources, the disease continues to spread throughout the Country. VL in São Paulo State, Brazil, first appeared in the northwestern region, spreading in a southeasterly direction over time. We integrate data on the VL vector, infected dogs and infected human dispersion from 1999 to 2013 through an innovative spatial temporal Bayesian model in conjunction with geographic information system. This model is used to infer the drivers of the invasion process and predict the future progression of VL through the State. We found that vector dispersion was influenced by vector presence in nearby municipalities at the previous time step, proximity to the Bolívia-Brazil gas pipeline, and high temperatures (i.e., annual average between 20 and 23°C). Key factors affecting infected dog dispersion included proximity to the Marechal Rondon Highway, high temperatures, and presence of the competent vector within the same municipality. Finally, vector presence, presence of infected dogs, and rainfall (approx. 270 to 540mm/year) drove the dispersion of human VL cases. Surprisingly, economic factors exhibited no noticeable influence on disease dispersion. Based on these drivers and stochastic simulations, we identified which municipalities are most likely to be invaded by vectors and infected hosts in the future. Prioritizing prevention and control strategies within the identified municipalities may help halt the spread of VL while reducing monitoring costs. Our results contribute important knowledge to public and animal health policy planning, and suggest that prevention and control strategies should focus on vector control and on blocking contact between vectors and hosts in the priority areas identified to be at risk.

Environmental Niche Modelling of Phlebotomine Sand Flies and Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Identifies Lutzomyia intermedia as the Main Vector Species in Southeastern Brazil

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is caused by a protozoan of the genus Leishmania and is transmitted by sand flies. The state of Espírito Santo (ES), an endemic area in southeast Brazil, has shown a considerably high prevalence in recent decades. Environmental niche modelling (ENM) is a useful tool for predicting potential disease risk. In this study, ENM was applied to sand fly species and CL cases in ES to identify the principal vector and risk areas of the disease. Sand flies were collected in 466 rural localities between 1997 and 2013 using active and passive capture. Insects were identified to the species level, and the localities were georeferenced. Twenty-one bioclimatic variables were selected from WorldClim. Maxent was used to construct models projecting the potential distribution for five Lutzomyia species and CL cases. ENMTools was used to overlap the species and the CL case models. The Kruskal-Wallis test was performed, adopting a 5% significance level. Approximately 250,000 specimens were captured, belonging to 43 species. The area under the curve (AUC) was considered acceptable for all models. The slope was considered relevant to the construction of the models for all the species identified. The overlay test identified Lutzomyia intermedia as the main vector of CL in southeast Brazil. ENM tools enable an analysis of the association among environmental variables, vector distributions and CL cases, which can be used to support epidemiologic and entomological vigilance actions to control the expansion of CL in vulnerable areas.

Ecological Niche Modeling of main reservoir hosts of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran

Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL), caused by Leishmania major, is a common zoonotic vector-borne disease in Iran. Close contact with infected reservoir hosts increases the probability of transmission of Leishmania parasite infections to susceptible humans. Four gerbil species (Rodentia: Gerbillidae) serve as the main reservoir hosts for ZCL in different endemic foci of Iran. These species include Rhombomys opimus, Meriones libycus, Meriones hurrianae and Tatera indica; while notable infection has been reported in Nesokia indica as well. The purpose of this study is to model the distribution of these reservoirs to identify the risk areas of ZCL. A data bank was developed including all published data during the period of 1970-2015. Maximum entropy model was used to find the most appropriate ecological niches for each species. The areas under curve obtained were 0.961, 0.927, 0.922, 0.997 and 0.899, instead of 1, for training test in R. opimus, M. libycus, T. indica, M. hurrianae and N. indica, respectively. The environmental variable with the highest gain when used in isolation was slope for R. opimus and N. indica, annual mean temperature for M. libycus, and seasonal precipitation for T. indica and M. hurrianae. Summation of presence probabilities for three main species, i.e., R. opimus, M. libycus and T. indica revealed favorable ecological niches in wide areas of 16 provinces. This is the first study to predict the distribution of ZCL reservoir hosts in Iran. Climatology and topography variables had high contributions toward the prediction of potential distribution of the main reservoir species; therefore, as climate changes, the models should be updated periodically with novel data, and the results should be used in disease-monitoring programs.

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.

Lutzomyia longipalpis urbanisation and control

Since the description of Lutzomyia longipalpis by Lutz and Neiva more than 100 years ago, much has been written in the scientific literature about this phlebotomine species. Soares and Turco (2003) and Lainson and Rangel (2005) have written extensive reviews focused on vector-host-parasite interactions and American visceral leishmaniasis ecology. However, during the last two decades, the success of Lu. longipalpis in colonising urban environments and its simultaneous geographical spreading have led to new theoretical and operational questions. Therefore, this review updates the general information about this species and notes the more challenging topics regarding the new scenario of urbanisation-spreading and its control in America. Here, we summarise the literature on these issues and the remaining unsolved questions, which pose recommendations for operational research.

Looking forward by looking back: using historical calibration to improve forecasts of human disease vector distributions

Arthropod disease vectors, most notably mosquitoes, ticks, tsetse flies, and sandflies, are strongly influenced by environmental conditions and responsible for the vast majority of global vector-borne human diseases. The most widely used statistical models to predict future vector distributions model species niches and project the models forward under future climate scenarios. Although these methods address variations in vector distributions through space, their capacity to predict changing distributions through time is far less certain. Here, we review modeling methods used to validate and forecast future distributions of arthropod vectors under the effects of climate change and outline the uses or limitations of these techniques. We then suggest a validation approach specific to temporal extrapolation models that is gaining momentum in macroecological modeling and has great potential for epidemiological modeling of disease vectors. We performed systematic searches in the Web of Science, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar to identify peer-reviewed English journal articles that model arthropod disease vector distributions under future environment scenarios. We included studies published up to and including June, 2014. We identified 29 relevant articles for our review. The majority of these studies predicted current species niches and projected the models forward under future climate scenarios without temporal validation. Historically calibrated forecast models improve predictions of changing vector distributions by tracking known shifts through recently observed time periods. With accelerating climate change, accurate predictions of shifts in disease vectors are crucial to target vector control interventions where needs are greatest.

Spatial Distribution of Sand Fly Vectors and Eco-Epidemiology of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Transmission in Colombia

Background

Leishmania is transmitted by Phlebotominae insects that maintain the enzootic cycle by circulating between sylvatic and domestic mammals; humans enter the cycles as accidental hosts due to the vector’s search for blood source. In Colombia, leishmaniasis is an endemic disease and 95% of all cases are cutaneous (CL), these cases have been reported in several regions of the country where the intervention of sylvatic areas by the introduction of agriculture seem to have an impact on the rearrangement of new transmission cycles. Our study aimed to update vector species distribution in the country and to analyze the relationship between vectors’ distribution, climate, land use and CL prevalence.

Methods

A database with geographic information was assembled, and ecological niche modeling was performed to explore the potential distribution of each of the 21 species of medical importance in Colombia, using thirteen bioclimatic variables, three topographic and three principal components derived from NDVI. Binary models for each species were obtained and related to both land use coverage, and a CL prevalence map with available epidemiological data. Finally, maps of species potential distribution were summed to define potential species richness in the country.

Results

In total, 673 single records were obtained with Lutzomyia gomezi, Lutzomyia longipalpis, Psychodopygus panamensis, Psathyromyia shannoni and Pintomyia evansi the species with the highest number of records. Eighteen species had significant models, considering the area under the curve and the jackknife results: L. gomezi and P. panamensis had the widest potential distribution. All sand fly species except for Nyssomyia antunesi are mainly distributed in regions with rates of prevalence between 0.33 to 101.35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and 76% of collection data points fall into transformed ecosystems.

Discussion

Distribution ranges of sand flies with medical importance in Colombia correspond predominantly to disturbed areas, where the original land coverage is missing therefore increasing the domiciliation potential. We highlight the importance of the use of distribution maps as a tool for the development of strategies for prevention and control of diseases.

Search for Antiprotozoal Activity in Herbal Medicinal Preparations; New Natural Leads against Neglected Tropical Diseases

Sleeping sickness, Chagas disease, Leishmaniasis, and Malaria are infectious diseases caused by unicellular eukaryotic parasites (“protozoans”). The three first mentioned are classified as Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) by the World Health Organization and together threaten more than one billion lives worldwide. Due to the lack of research interest and the high increase of resistance against the existing treatments, the search for effective and safe new therapies is urgently required. In view of the large tradition of natural products as sources against infectious diseases [1,2], the aim of the present study is to investigate the potential of legally approved and marketed herbal medicinal products (HMPs) as antiprotozoal agents. Fifty-eight extracts from 53 HMPs on the German market were tested by a Multiple-Target-Screening (MTS) against parasites of the genera Leishmania, Trypanosoma, and Plasmodium. Sixteen HMPs showed in vitro activity against at least one of the pathogens (IC₅₀ < 10 µg/mL). Six extracts from preparations of Salvia, Valeriana, Hypericum, Silybum, Arnica, and Curcuma exhibited high activity (IC₅₀ < 2.5 µg/mL). They were analytically characterized by UHPLC/ESI-QqTOF-MSMS and the activity-guided fractionation of the extracts with the aim to isolate and identify the active compounds is in progress.

[Environmental pollution, climate variability and climate change: a review of health impacts on the Peruvian population]

This article is a review of the pollution of water, air and the effect of climate change on the health of the Peruvian population. A major air pollutant is particulate matter less than 2.5 μ (PM 2.5). In Lima, 2,300 premature deaths annually are attributable to this pollutant. Another problem is household air pollution by using stoves burning biomass fuels, where excessive indoor exposure to PM 2.5 inside the household is responsible for approximately 3,000 annual premature deaths among adults, with another unknown number of deaths among children due to respiratory infections. Water pollution is caused by sewage discharges into rivers, minerals (arsenic) from various sources, and failure of water treatment plants. In Peru, climate change may impact the frequency and severity of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been associated with an increase in cases of diseases such as cholera, malaria and dengue. Climate change increases the temperature and can extend the areas affected by vector-borne diseases, have impact on the availability of water and contamination of the air. In conclusion, Peru is going through a transition of environmental risk factors, where traditional and modern risks coexist and infectious and chronic problems remain, some of which are associated with problems of pollution of water and air.