Live bird markets characterization and trading network analysis in Mali: Implications for the surveillance and control of avian influenza and Newcastle disease

From isolation to revival: trade recovery amid global health crises

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of designing effective trade recovery measures in response to global health events (GHEs). This study combines international trade risk management theory and multi-case comparative analysis of past GHEs to present a theoretical framework for designing national trade recovery measures for future events.

RESULTS

The research finds that during GHEs, trade risks shift to fundamental uncertainty, requiring spatial-temporal-subject dimension recovery measures. The study suggests changing the focus of trade recovery policy design from emergency-oriented and single-dimension measures to reserve-oriented and enduring-effect measures of comprehensive dimensions at micro- and macroeconomic levels.

CONCLUSION

The study contributes to the debate on managing trade risks in times of crisis, where there is a need to develop effective trade recovery measures that account for the complexities of global trade and the unique challenges of GHEs. The findings provide practical guidance for trade officials and policymakers to design measures in response to GHEs to improve a country's overall trade recovery.

Genetic insights of H9N2 avian influenza viruses circulating in Mali and phylogeographic patterns in Northern and Western Africa

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) of the H9N2 subtype have become widespread in Western Africa since their first detection in 2017 in Burkina Faso. However, the genetic characteristics and diffusion patterns of the H9N2 virus remain poorly understood in Western Africa, mainly due to limited surveillance activities. In addition, Mali, a country considered to play an important role in the epidemiology of AIVs in the region, lacks more comprehensive data on the genetic characteristics of these viruses, especially the H9N2 subtype. To better understand the genetic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of H9N2 virus within this region, we carried out a comprehensive genetic characterization of H9N2 viruses collected through active surveillance in live bird markets in Mali between 2021 and 2022. We also performed a continuous phylogeographic analysis to unravel the dispersal history of H9N2 lineages between Northern and Western Africa. The identified Malian H9N2 virus belonged to the G1 lineage, similar to viruses circulating in both Western and Northern Africa, and possessed multiple molecular markers associated with an increased potential for zoonotic transmission and virulence. Notably, some Malian strains carried the R-S-N-R motif at their cleavage site, mainly observed in H9N2 strains in Asia. Our continuous phylogeographic analysis revealed a single and significant long-distance lineage dispersal event of the H9N2 virus to Western Africa, likely to have originated from Morocco in 2015, shaping the westward diffusion of the H9N2 virus. Our study highlights the need for long-term surveillance of H9N2 viruses in poultry populations in Western Africa, which is crucial for a better understanding of virus evolution and effective management against potential zoonotic AIV strain emergence.

Markets as drivers of selection for highly virulent poultry pathogens

Theoretical models have successfully predicted the evolution of poultry pathogen virulence in industrialized farm contexts of broiler chicken populations. Whether there are ecological factors specific to more traditional rural farming that affect virulence is an open question. Within non-industrialized farming networks, live bird markets are known to be hotspots of transmission, but whether they could shift selection pressures on the evolution of poultry pathogen virulence has not been addressed. Here, we revisit predictions for the evolution of virulence for viral poultry pathogens, such as Newcastle's disease virus, Marek's disease virus, and influenza virus, H5N1, using a compartmental model that represents transmission in rural markets. We show that both the higher turnover rate and higher environmental persistence in markets relative to farms could select for higher optimal virulence strategies. In contrast to theoretical results modeling industrialized poultry farms, we find that cleaning could also select for decreased virulence in the live poultry market setting. Additionally, we predict that more virulent strategies selected in markets could circulate solely within poultry located in markets. Thus, we recommend the close monitoring of markets not only as hotspots of transmission, but as potential sources of more virulent strains of poultry pathogens.

Analysis of patterns of livestock movements in the Cattle Corridor of Uganda for risk-based surveillance of infectious diseases

Introduction

The knowledge of animal movements is key to formulating strategic animal disease control policies and carrying out targeted surveillance. This study describes the characteristics of district-level cattle, small ruminant, and pig trade networks in the Cattle Corridor of Uganda between 2019 and 2021.

Methodology

The data for the study was extracted from 7,043 animal movement permits (AMPs) obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) of Uganda. Most of the data was on cattle (87.2%), followed by small ruminants (11.2%) and pigs (1.6%). Two types of networks representing animal shipments between districts were created for each species based on monthly (n = 30) and seasonal (n = 10) temporal windows. Measures of centrality and cohesiveness were computed for all the temporal windows and our analysis identified the most central districts in the networks.

Results

The median in-degree for monthly networks ranged from 0-3 for cattle, 0-1 for small ruminants and 0-1 for pigs. The highest median out-degrees for cattle, small ruminant and pig monthly networks were observed in Lira, Oyam and Butambala districts, respectively. Unlike the pig networks, the cattle and small ruminant networks were found to be of small-world and free-scale topologies.

Discussion

The cattle and small ruminant trade movement networks were also found to be highly connected, which could facilitate quick spread of infectious animal diseases across these networks. The findings from this study highlighted the significance of characterizing animal movement networks to inform surveillance, early detection, and subsequent control of infectious animal disease outbreaks.

Campylobacter positivity and public health risks in live bird markets in Busia, Kenya: A value chain analysis

Live bird markets (LBMs) provide integral hubs for 95% of poultry produced for food. Surveillance systems in LBMs serving smallholder farmers in sub-saharan Africa are often non-functional, and data about public health risks and emerging pathogens are lacking. Studies in Kenya have reported 29-44% Campylobacter prevalence in poultry. We analysed such LBMs in Kenya for likely transmission of Campylobacter from poultry to humans. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 186 live poultry traders (LPTs) in 14 LBMs in a region with widespread backyard poultry systems. A pretested structured questionnaire was administered to all LPTs having regular contacts with poultry to gather market data and risk information on campylobacteriosis. Campylobacter was detected in individual cloacal cultures and identified through PCR. The median score obtained from the outcome of risk assessment dichotomized respondents into high and low risk categories. We performed logistic regression at 95% confidence interval (CI) to compare market characteristics and Campylobacter positivity to risk categories to identify LBM-associated public health risks. Markets had a median of 13 traders, and mean age of 46.3 ± 13.7 years. Majority 162/186 (87.1%) were males. Market behavioural processes by LPTs varied: Only 58.6% LPTs held bird species separate; onsite slaughter (38.7%); encountered sick-bird (93%) and dead-bird (83%) amidst limited health inspection (31.2%). Campylobacter positivity in live birds was 43/112 (38.4%, 95% CI: 29.4-48.1). Risk information on campylobacteriosis was low 41/114 (36%, 95% CI: 27.2-45.5). Sanitary risks were related to accumulation of litter (adjusted prevalence odds ratio [aPOR]: 19.67, 95% CI: 3.01-128.52). Accessing hand-wash facilities (aPOR: .32, 95% CI: .13-.78) and access to information (aPOR: .24, 95% CI: .09-.61) were protective. Sanitary risks were related to poor hygiene. LBMs could be central surveillance sites for Campylobacter. Public health authorities/actors should consider appropriate targeting to improve sanitary measures and Campylobacter control strategies.

Emerging infectious diseases may spread across pig trade networks in Thailand once introduced: a network analysis approach

In Thailand, pork is one of the most consumed meats nationwide. Pig farming is hence an important business in the country. However, 95% of the farms were considered smallholders raising only 50 pigs or less. With limited budgets and resources, the biosecurity level in these farms is relatively low. Pig movements have been previously identified as a risk factor in the spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, the present study aimed to explicitly analyze the pig movement network structure and assess its vulnerability to the spread of emerging diseases in Thailand. We used official electronic records of nationwide pig movements throughout the year 2021 to construct a directed weighted one-mode network. Degree centrality, degree distribution, connected components, network community, and modularity were measured to explore the network architectures and properties. In this network, 484,483 pig movements were captured. In which, 379,948 (78.42%) were moved toward slaughterhouses and hence excluded from further analyses. From the remaining links, we suggested that the pig movement network in Thailand was vulnerable to the spread of emerging infectious diseases. Within the network, we found a strongly connected component (SCC) connecting 1044 subdistricts (38.6% of the nodes), a giant weakly connected component (GWCC) covering 98.2% of the nodes (2654/2704), and inter-regional communities with overall network modularity of 0.68. The disease may rapidly spread throughout the country. A better understanding of the nationwide pig movement networks is helpful in tailoring control interventions to cope with the newly emerged diseases once introduced.

Risk Prediction of Three Different Subtypes of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Poultry Farms: Based on Spatial Characteristics of Infected Premises in South Korea

From 2003 to 2017, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemics, particularly H5N1, H5N8, and H5N6 infections in poultry farms, increased in South Korea. More recently, these subtypes of HPAI virus resurged and spread nationwide, heavily impacting the entire poultry production and supply system. Most outbreaks in poultry holdings were concentrated in the southwestern part of the country, accounting for 58.3% of the total occurrences. This geographically persistent occurrence demanded the investigation of spatial risk factors related to the HPAI outbreak and the prediction of the risk of emerging HPAI outbreaks. Therefore, we investigated 12 spatial variables for the three subtypes of HPAI virus-infected premises [(IPs), 88 H5N1, 339 H5N8, and 335 H5N6 IPs]. Then, two prediction models using statistical and machine learning algorithm approaches were built from a case-control study on HPAI H5N8 epidemic, the most prolonged outbreak, in 339 IPs and 626 non-IPs. Finally, we predicted the risk of HPAI H5N1 and H5N6 occurrence at poultry farms using a Bayesian logistic regression and machine learning algorithm model [extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model] built on the case-control study. Several spatial variables showed similar distribution between two subtypes of IPs, although there were distinct heterogeneous distributions of spatial variables among the three IP subtypes. The case-control study indicated that the density of domestic duck farms and the minimum distance to live bird markets were leading risk factors for HPAI outbreaks. The two prediction models showed high predictive performance for H5N1 and H5N6 occurrences [an area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic of Bayesian model > 0.82 and XGBoost model > 0.97]. This finding emphasizes that spatial characteristics of the poultry farm play a vital role in the occurrence and forecast of HPAI outbreaks. Therefore, this finding is expected to contributing to developing prevention and control strategies.

Biosecurity and Antimicrobial Use Practices in Live Bird Markets within Abeokuta Metropolis, Southwest, Nigeria: A Preliminary Survey

The development of an antimicrobial stewardship plan (AMSP) for live bird sellers (LBS) requires an understanding of the current biosecurity status, antimicrobial use (AMU) and the practices involved in live bird selling (e.g., drivers, sellers, etc.) which is a direct source of poultry meat for human consumption. Seven Live Bird Markets (LBMs) within Abeokuta, Ogun State were surveyed using a semi-structured questionnaire. Data on LBMs characteristics, LBS demographics, biosecurity, and AMU practices, awareness on Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR), as well as preferred channels of information on antimicrobial stewardship were gathered. A total of 40 consenting LBS with 82.5% female and 17.5% male participants were included in the study. The participants’ mean age was 45.3 years (SD±11.9, range: 23-70 years). Laying hens, broilers, and cockerels were the main poultry types sold by LBS. Antimicrobials (AMs) were used for growth promotion (57.5%), therapeutic (40.0%), and prophylactic (2.5%) purposes. Tetracycline, metronidazole, and chloramphenicol were the most frequently used AMs. The majority of the participants (90.0%) have treated birds based on their empirical experience, with little or no inputs from veterinarians. Biosecurity and AMU practices were generally low (54.0% and 34.0%, respectively). The contact with veterinarians was associated with satisfactory biosecurity practices (p=0.049). No significant factors were found to be linked with AMU. This study has provided recent evidence-based data on practices in poultry management among LBS in Abeokuta, Ogun state. The findings would be useful for policy decisions and the development of AMSP on prudent AMU among LBS.

Avian influenza transmission risk along live poultry trading networks in Bangladesh

Live animal markets are known hotspots of zoonotic disease emergence. To mitigate those risks, we need to understand how networks shaped by trading practices influence disease spread. Yet, those practices are rarely recorded in high-risk settings. Through a large cross-sectional study, we assessed the potential impact of live poultry trading networks’ structures on avian influenza transmission dynamics in Bangladesh. Networks promoted mixing between chickens sourced from different farming systems and geographical locations, fostering co-circulation of viral strains of diverse origins in markets. Viral transmission models suggested that the observed rise in viral prevalence from farms to markets was unlikely explained by intra-market transmission alone, but substantially influenced by transmission occurring in upstream network nodes. Disease control interventions should therefore alter the entire network structures. However, as networks differed between chicken types and city supplied, standardised interventions are unlikely to be effective, and should be tailored to local structural characteristics.

Global formal live poultry and hatching egg trade network (2004-2016): description and association with poultry disease reporting and presence

As international trade constitutes one of the main spread pathways of diseases, a better understanding of the trade behaviors of countries will help identify strengths and areas for improvement in the approach of national authorities to controlling poultry diseases globally. Using data reported to the United Nations Comtrade and the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) between 2004 and 2016 by 193 countries, we used a network analysis on trade data of poultry hatching eggs, live poultry of less than 185 g and live poultry of 185 g or more to determine that: 1) quantities traded between countries are substantial, and tend to increase (average increase of 800,000 poultry heads and 21,000 tons of hatching eggs each year equivalent to an increase by 2-fold in 17 yr); 2) the stability of the networks was low (a quarter to half of trade relationships maintained between 2 consecutive years) and the subnetworks favorable to the spread of diseases were in general consistent with regional clustering, trade exchanges being equally at intracontinental and intercontinental levels; 3) countries with highest number of partners were located in the same world regions for the 3 poultry networks - Americas and Europe for export (up to 107 partners) and Africa, Asia and Europe for import (up to 36 partners); 4) for live poultry, biggest exporting countries shared more poultry disease surveillance data, and reported more disease presence than others, which did not stop them from trading. Biggest importers reported less poultry disease surveillance data and reported more disease presence than others; and 5) the main structural and trend characteristics of the international trade networks were in general similar for the 3 networks. The information derived from this work underlines the importance of applying the preventive measures advocated by the OIE and will support countries to reduce the risk of introduction of pathogens causing poultry diseases.

Molecular and virological characterization of the first poultry outbreaks of Genotype VII.2 velogenic avian orthoavulavirus type 1 (NDV) in North-West Europe, BeNeLux, 2018

After two decades free of Newcastle disease, Belgium encountered a velogenic avian orthoavulavirus type 1 epizootic in 2018. In Belgium, 20 cases were diagnosed, of which 15 occurred in hobby flocks, 2 in professional poultry flocks and 3 in poultry retailers. The disease also disseminated from Belgium towards the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg by trade. Independently, the virus was detected once in the Netherlands, almost simultaneously to the first Belgian detection. As such Newcastle disease emerged in the entire BeNeLux region. Both the polybasic sequence of the fusion gene cleavage site and the intracerebral pathotyping assay demonstrated the high pathogenicity of the strain. This paper represents the first notification of this specific VII.2 subgenotype in the North-West of Europe. Time-calibrated full genome phylogenetic analysis indicated the silent or unreported circulation of the virus prior to the emergence of three genetic clusters in the BeNeLux region without clear geographical or other epidemiological correlation. The Dutch strain appeared as an outgroup to the Belgian and Luxembourgian strains in the time-correlated genetic analysis and no epidemiological link could be identified between the Belgian and Dutch outbreaks. In contrast, both genetic and epidemiological outbreak investigation data linked the G.D. Luxembourg case to the Belgian outbreak. The genetic links between Belgian viruses from retailers and hobby flocks only partially correlated with epidemiological data. Two independent introductions into the professional poultry sector were identified, although their origin could not be determined. Animal experiments using 6-week- old specific pathogen-free chickens indicated a systemic infection and efficient transmission of the virus. The implementation of re-vaccination in the professional sector, affected hobby and retailers, as well as the restriction on assembly and increased biosecurity measures, possibly limited the epizootic and resulted in the disappearance of the virus. These findings emphasize the constant need for awareness and monitoring of notifiable viruses in the field.

Characterization of potential superspreader farms for bovine tuberculosis: A review

Background

Variation in host attributes that influence their contact rates and infectiousness can lead some individuals to make disproportionate contributions to the spread of infections. Understanding the roles of such ‘superspreaders’ can be crucial in deciding where to direct disease surveillance and controls to greatest effect. In the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Great Britain, it has been suggested that a minority of cattle farms or herds might make disproportionate contributions to the spread of Mycobacterium bovis, and hence might be considered ‘superspreader farms’.

Objectives and Methods

We review the literature to identify the characteristics of farms that have the potential to contribute to exceptional values in the three main components of the farm reproductive number ‐ R_f: contact rate, infectiousness and duration of infectiousness, and therefore might characterize potential superspreader farms for bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain.

Results

Farms exhibit marked heterogeneity in contact rates arising from between‐farm trading of cattle. A minority of farms act as trading hubs that greatly augment connections within cattle trading networks. Herd infectiousness might be increased by high within‐herd transmission or the presence of supershedding individuals, or infectiousness might be prolonged due to undetected infections or by repeated local transmission, via wildlife or fomites.

Conclusions

Targeting control methods on putative superspreader farms might yield disproportionate benefits in controlling endemic bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain. However, real‐time identification of any such farms, and integration of controls with industry practices, present analytical, operational and policy challenges.

Social network analysis of practice adoption facing outbreaks of African Swine Fever

Animal epizootics show widely destructive effect on livestock value chains in sub Saharan Africa, pushing many smallholders into poverty and discouraging investments. Hence, African swine fever (ASF) has been playing a deeply depressing role on swine value chain of Benin since its first occurrence in the country in 1997. Exchanges between actors are fundamental among stakeholders for the overall performance of a value chain and is key in the way these can respond to challenges, as epizootic threats. The present study describes how stakeholders of the swine value chain interact in the diffusion of innovative practices facing an outbreak of ASF. In seven districts, focus groups were first organized with stakeholders to identify changes and other reactions that ensued from a recent ASF outbreak in Benin. In a second step, individual semi-structured interviews were conducted, following a respondent-driven sampling, to collect the contact information needed for social network analysis. The influence of actors' characteristics on their degree centrality was tested through multiple linear regression model. Regulatory requirements and available incomes facilitated practice diffusion among groups of pork butchers, traders/brokers and input suppliers. Stockbreeders displayed passivity in the diffusion of practices whereas they should have the forefront role in addressing the challenge of ASF. Nevertheless, their significant interest in capacity reinforcement, associations, exchange visits and professionalization may lead them to increase their involvement in a joint control of the disease.

Knowledge and remaining gaps on the role of animal and human movements in the poultry production and trade networks in the global spread of avian influenza viruses - A scoping review

Poultry production has significantly increased worldwide, along with the number of avian influenza (AI) outbreaks and the potential threat for human pandemic emergence. The role of wild bird movements in this global spread has been extensively studied while the role of animal, human and fomite movement within commercial poultry production and trade networks remains poorly understood. The aim of this work is to better understand these roles in relation to the different routes of AI spread. A scoping literature review was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) using a search algorithm combining twelve domains linked to AI spread and animal/human movements within poultry production and trade networks. Only 28 out of 3,978 articles retrieved dealt especially with the role of animal, human and fomite movements in AI spread within the international trade network (4 articles), the national trade network (8 articles) and the production network (16 articles). While the role of animal movements in AI spread within national trade networks has been largely identified, human and fomite movements have been considered more at risk for AI spread within national production networks. However, the role of these movements has never been demonstrated with field data, and production networks have only been partially studied and never at international level. The complexity of poultry production networks and the limited access to production and trade data are important barriers to this knowledge. There is a need to study the role of animal and human movements within poultry production and trade networks in the global spread of AI in partnership with both public and private actors to fill this gap.

Avian influenza at animal-human interface: One-health challenge in live poultry retail stalls of Chakwal, Pakistan

Background

Live poultry retail stalls (LPRSs) are believed to be the source of human infection with avian influenza viruses (AIVs); however, little is known about epidemiology of these viruses in LPRSs of Pakistan.

Objectives

The current study was conducted to estimate the virological and serological prevalence of AIVs in humans and poultry and associated risk factors among seropositive butchers.

Methods

A field survey of LPRSs of Chakwal District was conducted between December 2015 and March 2016. In total, 322 samples (sera = 161 and throat swab = 161) from butchers and 130 pooled oropharyngeal swabs and 100 sera from birds were collected. Baseline sera (n = 100) from general population were also tested. Data were collected by structured questionnaires. Sera were tested by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) test further confirmed by micro‐neutralization test (MN). Swabs were processed by real‐time RT‐PCR. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify risk factors.

Results

In butchers, 15.5% sera were positive for antibodies against H9 virus using a cutoff of ≥40 in HI titer; 6% sera from general population were positive for H9. Seroprevalence in poultry was 89%, and only 2.30% swabs were positive for H9. Presence of another LPRS nearby and the number of cages in the stall were risk factors (OR > 1) for H9 seroprevalence in butchers.

Conclusions

This study provides evidence of co‐circulation of H9 virus in poultry and exposure of butchers in the LPRSs, which poses a continued threat to public health. We suggest regular surveillance of AIVs in occupationally exposed butchers and birds in LPRSs.

Pig trade networks through live pig markets in Guangdong Province, China

This study used social network analysis to investigate the indirect contact network between counties through the movement of live pigs through four wholesale live pig markets in Guangdong Province, China. All 14,118 trade records for January and June 2016 were collected from the markets and the patterns of pig trade in these markets analysed. Maps were developed to show the movement pathways. Evaluating the network between source counties was the primary objective of this study. A 1‐mode network was developed. Characteristics of the trading network were explored, and the degree, betweenness and closeness were calculated for each source county. Models were developed to compare the impacts of different disease control strategies on the potential magnitude of an epidemic spreading through this network. The results show that pigs from 151 counties were delivered to the four wholesale live pig markets in January and/or June 2016. More batches (truckloads of pigs sourced from one or more piggeries) were traded in these markets in January (8,001) than in June 2016 (6,117). The pigs were predominantly sourced from counties inside Guangdong Province (90%), along with counties in Hunan, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Fujian and Henan provinces. The major source counties (46 in total) contributed 94% of the total batches during the two‐month study period. Pigs were sourced from piggeries located 10 to 1,417 km from the markets. The distribution of the nodes' degrees in both January and June indicates a free‐scale network property, and the network in January had a higher clustering coefficient (0.54 vs. 0.39) and a shorter average pathway length (1.91 vs. 2.06) than that in June. The most connected counties of the network were in the central, northern and western regions of Guangdong Province. Compared with randomly removing counties from the network, eliminating counties with higher betweenness, degree or closeness resulted in a greater reduction of the magnitude of a potential epidemic. The findings of this study can be used to inform targeted control interventions for disease spread through this live pig market trade network in south China.

Prevalence of Avian Influenza A(H5) and A(H9) Viruses in Live Bird Markets, Bangladesh

We conducted a cross-sectional study in live bird markets (LBMs) in Dhaka and Chittagong, Bangladesh, to estimate the prevalence of avian influenza A(H5) and A(H9) viruses in different types of poultry and environmental areas by using Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression models. We detected these viruses in nearly all LBMs. Prevalence of A(H5) virus was higher in waterfowl than in chickens, whereas prevalence of A(H9) virus was higher in chickens than in waterfowl and, among chicken types, in industrial broilers than in cross-breeds and indigenous breeds. LBMs with >1 wholesaler were more frequently contaminated by A(H5) virus than retail-only LBMs. Prevalence of A(H9) virus in poultry and level of environmental contamination were also higher in LBMs with >1 wholesaler. We found a high level of circulation of both avian influenza viruses in surveyed LBMs. Prevalence was influenced by type of poultry, environmental site, and trading.

Characterizing Livestock Markets, Primary Diseases, and Key Management Practices Along the Livestock Supply Chain in Cameroon

Live animal markets are common hotspots for the dispersal of multiple infectious diseases in various production systems globally. In Cameroon livestock trade occurs predominantly via a system of livestock markets. Improving the understanding of the risks associated with livestock trade systems and markets is, therefore, key to design targeted and evidence-based interventions. In the current study, official transaction records for a 12-month period were collected from 62 livestock markets across Central and Southern Cameroon, in combination with a questionnaire-based survey with the livestock markets stakeholders. The available information collected at these markets was used to characterize their structural and functional organization. Based on trade volume, cattle price and the intensity of stakeholder attendance, four main classes of livestock markets were identified. Despite an evident hierarchical structure of the system, a relatively limited pool of infectious diseases was consistently reported as predominant across market classes, highlighting homogeneous disease risks along the livestock supply chain. Conversely, the variable livestock management practices reported (e.g., traded species, husbandry practices, and transhumance habits) highlighted diverse potential risks for disease dissemination among market classes. Making use of readily available commercial information at livestock markets, this study describes a rapid approach for market characterization and classification. Simultaneously, this study identifies primary diseases and management practices at risk and provides the opportunity to inform evidence-based and strategic communication, surveillance and control approaches aiming at mitigating these risks for diseases dissemination through the livestock supply chain in Cameroon.

Isolation, identification and molecular characterization of Newcastle disease viruses in vaccinated chickens from commercial farms in the Sultanate of Oman

Newcastle disease (ND) remains an important enzootic disease in chickens in several parts of the world. With the increasing reports of virulence and genetic diversity of the causative agent; Newcastle disease virus (NDV), there is a need to identify the circulating NDV in specific regions. In Oman, to this moment, such information is still lacking. The aim of this study was to isolate and characterize the NDV from ND outbreaks from commercial farms in Oman. Following suspected outbreaks of ND in three commercial farms in 2017, a total of 30 carcasses (10 from each flock) of adult chickens were subjected to necropsy for gross and histopathological examination, virus isolation and molecular methods. Specifically, haemagglutination inhibition (HI) test and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay were used for the virus detection and confirmation, respectively. Lesions were suggestive of viscerotropic velogenic form of ND based on gross and histopathological examinations. Isolation of NDV was present in 4 cases and further confirmed by RT-PCR following the target of the partial fusion protein gene of the viral genome. The sequence of the partial fusion gene was determined and phylogenetic tree was constructed based on the partial length F gene of 4 Omani isolates and 65 previously published NDVs. The findings predicted that the Omani isolates had high homology (99%) with the isolate from Pakistan belonging to genotype VII. Subsequently, the isolated pathotype was identified as the virulent NDV. This study serves as a basic work for further research on the analysis and phenotyping of NDV in the Sultanate of Oman. Improved monitoring and surveillance of the disease is important for proper preventive measures.

A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a devastating viral disease of sheep and goats, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 15 years. Although an efficacious attenuated live vaccine is available, the lack of knowledge about the transmission potential of PPR virus (PPRV) may compromise eradication efforts. By fitting a metapopulation model simulating PPRV spread to the results of a nationwide serological survey in Ethiopia, we estimated the level of viral transmission in an endemic setting and the vaccination coverage required for elimination. Results suggest that the pastoral production system as a whole acts as a viral reservoir, from which PPRV spills over into the sedentary production system, where viral persistence is uncertain. Estimated levels of PPRV transmission indicate that viral spread could be prevented if the proportion of immune small ruminants is kept permanently above 37% in at least 71% of pastoral village populations. However, due to the high turnover of these populations, maintaining the fraction of immune animals above this threshold would require high vaccine coverage within villages, and vaccination campaigns to be conducted annually. Adapting vaccination strategies to the specific characteristics of the local epidemiological context and small ruminant population dynamics would result in optimized allocation of limited resources and increase the likelihood of PPR eradication.

Seroprevalence of Newcastle disease virus in backyard chickens and herd-level risk factors of Newcastle disease in poultry farms in Oman

Newcastle disease (ND) is an endemic disease in Oman's poultry industry and impacts negatively on food security. However, little is known regarding the potential risks of the disease in backyard poultry. The objectives of this study were to determine the seroprevalence of Newcastle disease virus (NDV) in backyard chickens and the herd-level risk factors in Oman. In total, 1383 serum samples were collected from chickens in 139 flocks from nine governorates. Information on associated risk factors was assessed using a semi-structured questionnaire. The samples were tested using commercial indirect ELISA kits.A logistic regression model was applied to assess the associated risk factors. The bird and flock-level NDV seroprevalence was 33.8% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 12.8-38.6%) and 57.1% (95% CI: 35.7-71.4%), respectively. The highest seroprevalence of antibody to NDV at bird and flock levels was recorded in North Ash Sharqiyah (38.6%) and Al Buraimi (71.4%), respectively. Also, the lowest seroprevalence at bird and flock levels was recorded in Musandam (12.8%) and South Al Batinah (35.7%), respectively. A significant difference in NDV seroprevalence at flock and bird levels was only recorded in Ad Dakhliyah. Factors associated with higher seroprevalence to NDV included absence of a veterinarian in the farm (OR = 5.3; 95% CI: 2.1, 11.7), usage of dead ND vaccine (OR = 2.3; 95% CI: 1.2-4.2), employment of non-permanent staff (OR = 3.9; 95% CI: 1.5, 10.6) and free entry of visitors (OR = 6.2; 95% CI: 2.0, 20.3). In conclusion, the results of this study revealed a high exposure of backyard chickens to NDV and the identified risk factors could be vital in the prevention and control of the disease in Oman.

Drivers of Live Cattle Price in the Livestock Trading System of Central Cameroon

Livestock production and trade are critical for the food security and welfare of rural households in sub-Saharan Africa. In Cameroon, animal trade consists mainly of live cattle commercialized through livestock markets. Identifying the factors contributing to cattle price formation is critical for designing effective policies for sustainable production and for increasing food availability. In this study, we evaluated the influence of a range of individual- and market-level factors on the price of cattle that were sold in all transactions (n = 118,017) recorded over a 12-month period from 31 livestock markets in the main cattle production area of the country. An information-theoretic approach using a generalized additive mixed-effect model was implemented to select the best explanatory model as well as evaluate the robustness of the identified drivers and the predictive ability of the model. The age and gender of the cattle traded were consistently found to be important drivers of the price (p < 0.01). Also, strong, but complex, relationships were found between cattle prices and both local human and bovine population densities. Finally, the model highlighted a positive association between the number of incoming trading connections of a livestock market and the price of the traded live cattle (p < 0.01). Although our analysis did not account for factors informing on specific phenotypic traits nor breed characteristics of cattle traded, nearly 50% of the observed variation in live cattle prices was explained by the final model. Ultimately, our model gives a large scale overview of drivers of cattle price formation in Cameroon and to our knowledge is the first study of this scale in Central Africa. Our findings represent an important milestone in designing efficient and sustainable animal health management programme in Cameroon and ensure livelihood sustainability for rural households.

A large-scale study of a poultry trading network in Bangladesh: implications for control and surveillance of avian influenza viruses

BACKGROUND

Since its first report in 2007, avian influenza (AI) has been endemic in Bangladesh. While live poultry marketing is widespread throughout the country and known to influence AI dissemination and persistence, trading patterns have not been described. The aim of this study is to assess poultry trading practices and features of the poultry trading networks which could promote AI spread, and their potential implications for disease control and surveillance. Data on poultry trading practices was collected from 849 poultry traders during a cross-sectional survey in 138 live bird markets (LBMs) across 17 different districts of Bangladesh. The quantity and origins of traded poultry were assessed for each poultry type in surveyed LBMs. The network of contacts between farms and LBMs resulting from commercial movements of live poultry was constructed to assess its connectivity and to identify the key premises influencing it.

RESULTS

Poultry trading practices varied according to the size of the LBMs and to the type of poultry traded. Industrial broiler chickens, the most commonly traded poultry, were generally sold in LBMs close to their production areas, whereas ducks and backyard chickens were moved over longer distances, and their transport involved several intermediates. The poultry trading network composed of 445 nodes (73.2% were LBMs) was highly connected and disassortative. However, the removal of only 5.6% of the nodes (25 LBMs with the highest betweenness scores), reduced the network's connectedness, and the maximum size of output and input domains by more than 50%.

CONCLUSIONS

Poultry types need to be discriminated in order to understand the way in which poultry trading networks are shaped, and the level of risk of disease spread that these networks may promote. Knowledge of the network structure could be used to target control and surveillance interventions to a small number of LBMs.

Implications of the cattle trade network in Cameroon for regional disease prevention and control

Movement of live animals is a major risk factor for the spread of livestock diseases and zoonotic infections. Understanding contact patterns is key to informing cost-effective surveillance and control strategies. In West and Central Africa some of the most rapid urbanization globally is expected to increase the demand for animal-source foods and the need for safer and more efficient animal production. Livestock trading points represent a strategic contact node in the dissemination of multiple pathogens. From October 2014 to May 2015 official transaction records were collected and a questionnaire-based survey was carried out in cattle markets throughout Western and Central-Northern Cameroon. The data were used to analyse the cattle trade network including a total of 127 livestock markets within Cameroon and five neighboring countries. This study explores for the first time the influence of animal trade on infectious disease spread in the region. The investigations showed that national borders do not present a barrier against pathogen dissemination and that non-neighbouring countries are epidemiologically connected, highlighting the importance of a regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control. Furthermore, these findings provide evidence for the benefit of strategic risk-based approaches for disease monitoring, surveillance and control, as well as for communication and training purposes through targeting key regions, highly connected livestock markets and central trading links.

Risk factors for avian influenza virus contamination of live poultry markets in Zhejiang, China during the 2015-2016 human influenza season

Live bird markets (LBMs), being a potential source of avian influenza virus, require effective environmental surveillance management. In our study, a total of 2865 environmental samples were collected from 292 LBMs during the 2015–2016 human influenza season from 10 cities in Zhejiang province, China. The samples were tested by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Field investigations were carried out to investigate probable risk factors. Of the environmental samples, 1519 (53.0%) were contaminated by A subtype. The highest prevalence of the H9 subtype was 30.2%, and the frequencies of the H5 and H7 subtype were 9.3% and 17.3%, respectively. Hangzhou and Jinhua cities were contaminated more seriously than the others. The prevalence of H5/H7/H9 in drinking water samples was highest, at 50.9%, and chopping board swabs ranked second, at 49.3%. Duration of sales per day, types of live poultry, LBM location and the number of live poultry were the main risk factors for environmental contamination, according to logistic regression analysis. In conclusion, LBMs in Zhejiang were contaminated by avian influenza. Our study has provided clues for avian influenza prevention and control during the human influenza season, especially in areas where LBMs are not closed.