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Platt D, Bose A, Rhrissorrakrai K, Levovitz C, Parida L. Epidemiological topology data analysis links severe COVID-19 to RAAS and hyperlipidemia associated metabolic syndrome conditions. Bioinformatics 2024; 40:i199-i207. [PMID: 38940159 PMCID: PMC11211822 DOI: 10.1093/bioinformatics/btae235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/29/2024] Open
Abstract
MOTIVATION The emergence of COVID-19 (C19) created incredible worldwide challenges but offers unique opportunities to understand the physiology of its risk factors and their interactions with complex disease conditions, such as metabolic syndrome. To address the challenges of discovering clinically relevant interactions, we employed a unique approach for epidemiological analysis powered by redescription-based topological data analysis (RTDA). RESULTS Here, RTDA was applied to Explorys data to discover associations among severe C19 and metabolic syndrome. This approach was able to further explore the probative value of drug prescriptions to capture the involvement of RAAS and hypertension with C19, as well as modification of risk factor impact by hyperlipidemia (HL) on severe C19. RTDA found higher-order relationships between RAAS pathway and severe C19 along with demographic variables of age, gender, and comorbidities such as obesity, statin prescriptions, HL, chronic kidney failure, and disproportionately affecting Black individuals. RTDA combined with CuNA (cumulant-based network analysis) yielded a higher-order interaction network derived from cumulants that furthered supported the central role that RAAS plays. TDA techniques can provide a novel outlook beyond typical logistic regressions in epidemiology. From an observational cohort of electronic medical records, it can find out how RAAS drugs interact with comorbidities, such as hypertension and HL, of patients with severe bouts of C19. Where single variable association tests with outcome can struggle, TDA's higher-order interaction network between different variables enables the discovery of the comorbidities of a disease such as C19 work in concert. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION Code for performing TDA/RTDA is available in https://github.com/IBM/Matilda and code for CuNA can be found in https://github.com/BiomedSciAI/Geno4SD/. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Platt
- IBM Research, 1101 Kitchawan Rd, Yorktown Heights, NY, 10598, United States
| | - Aritra Bose
- IBM Research, 1101 Kitchawan Rd, Yorktown Heights, NY, 10598, United States
| | | | - Chaya Levovitz
- IBM Research, 1101 Kitchawan Rd, Yorktown Heights, NY, 10598, United States
| | - Laxmi Parida
- IBM Research, 1101 Kitchawan Rd, Yorktown Heights, NY, 10598, United States
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Ketkar A, Willey V, Glasser L, Dobie C, Wenziger C, Teng CC, Dube C, Hirpara S, Cunningham D, Verduzco-Gutierrez M. Assessing the Burden and Cost of COVID-19 Across Variants in Commercially Insured Immunocompromised Populations in the United States: Updated Results and Trends from the Ongoing EPOCH-US Study. Adv Ther 2024; 41:1075-1102. [PMID: 38216825 PMCID: PMC10879378 DOI: 10.1007/s12325-023-02754-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2023] [Accepted: 11/28/2023] [Indexed: 01/14/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION/METHODS EPOCH-US is an ongoing, retrospective, observational cohort study among individuals identified in the Healthcare Integrated Research Database (HIRD®) with ≥ 12 months of continuous health plan enrollment. Data were collected for the HIRD population (containing immunocompetent and immunocompromised [IC] individuals), individual IC cohorts (non-mutually exclusive cohorts based on immunocompromising condition and/or immunosuppressive [IS] treatment), and the composite IC population (all unique IC individuals). This study updates previous results with addition of the general population cohort and data specifically for the year of 2022 (i.e., Omicron wave period). To provide healthcare decision-makers the most recent trends, this study reports incidence rates (IR) and severity of first SARS-CoV-2 infection; and relative risk, healthcare utilization, and costs related to first COVID-19 hospitalizations in the full year of 2022 and overall between April 2020 and December 2022. RESULTS These updated results showed a 2.9% prevalence of immune compromise in the population. From April 2020 through December 2022, the overall IR of COVID-19 was 115.7 per 1000 patient-years in the composite IC cohort and 77.8 per 1000 patient-years in the HIRD cohort. The composite IC cohort had a 15.4% hospitalization rate with an average cost of $42,719 for first COVID-19 hospitalization. Comparatively, the HIRD cohort had a 3.7% hospitalization rate with an average cost of $28,848 for first COVID-19 hospitalization. Compared to the general population, IC individuals had 4.3 to 23 times greater risk of hospitalization with first diagnosis of COVID-19. Between January and December 2022, hospitalizations associated with first COVID-19 diagnosis cost over $1 billion, with IC individuals (~ 3% of the population) generating $310 million (31%) of these costs. CONCLUSION While only 2.9% of the population, IC individuals had a higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and incurred higher healthcare costs across variants. They also disproportionately accounted for over 30% of total costs for first COVID-19 hospitalization in 2022, amounting to ~ $310 million. These data highlight the need for additional preventive measures to decrease the risk of developing severe COVID-19 outcomes in vulnerable IC populations.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Lisa Glasser
- AstraZeneca, Biopharmaceuticals Medical, Wilmington, DE, USA
| | - Casey Dobie
- Xcenda, a Cencora company, Conshohocken, PA, USA
| | | | | | - Christine Dube
- AstraZeneca, Biopharmaceuticals Medical, Wilmington, DE, USA
| | - Sunny Hirpara
- AstraZeneca, Biopharmaceuticals Medical, Wilmington, DE, USA
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Kwok KO, Wei WI, Mcneil EB, Tang A, Tang JWT, Wong SYS, Yeoh EK. Comparative analysis of symptom profile and risk of death associated with infection by SARS-CoV-2 and its variants in Hong Kong. J Med Virol 2024; 96:e29326. [PMID: 38345166 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.29326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2023] [Revised: 11/19/2023] [Accepted: 12/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/15/2024]
Abstract
The recurrent multiwave nature of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) necessitates updating its symptomatology. We characterize the effect of variants on symptom presentation, identify the symptoms predictive and protective of death, and quantify the effect of vaccination on symptom development. With the COVID-19 cases reported up to August 25, 2022 in Hong Kong, an iterative multitier text-matching algorithm was developed to identify symptoms from free text. Multivariate regression was used to measure associations between variants, symptom development, death, and vaccination status. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator technique was used to identify a parsimonious set of symptoms jointly associated with death. Overall, 70.9% (54 450/76 762) of cases were symptomatic with 102 symptoms identified. Intrinsically, the wild-type and delta variant caused similar symptoms among unvaccinated symptomatic cases, whereas the wild-type and omicron BA.2 subvariant had heterogeneous patterns, with seven symptoms (fatigue, fever, chest pain, runny nose, sputum production, nausea/vomiting, and sore throat) more frequent in the BA.2 cohort. With ≥2 vaccine doses, BA.2 was more likely than delta to cause fever among symptomatic cases. Fever, blocked nose, pneumonia, and shortness of breath remained jointly predictive of death among unvaccinated symptomatic elderly in the wild-type-to-omicron transition. Number of vaccine doses required for reducing occurrence varied by symptoms. We substantiate that omicron has a different clinical presentation compared to previous variants. Syndromic surveillance can be bettered with reduced reliance on symptom-based case identification, increased weighing on symptoms predictive of death in outcome prediction, individual-based risk assessment in care homes, and incorporating free-text symptom reporting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kin On Kwok
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Wan In Wei
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Edward B Mcneil
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Arthur Tang
- School of Science, Engineering and Technology, RMIT University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Julian W-T Tang
- Department of Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
- Department of Clinical Microbiology, Leicester Royal Infirmary, Leicester, United Kingdom
| | - Samuel Y S Wong
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Eng Kiong Yeoh
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
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Ketkar A, Willey V, Pollack M, Glasser L, Dobie C, Wenziger C, Teng CC, Dube C, Cunningham D, Verduzco-Gutierrez M. Assessing the risk and costs of COVID-19 in immunocompromised populations in a large United States commercial insurance health plan: the EPOCH-US Study. Curr Med Res Opin 2023; 39:1103-1118. [PMID: 37431293 DOI: 10.1080/03007995.2023.2233819] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2023] [Revised: 06/30/2023] [Accepted: 07/04/2023] [Indexed: 07/12/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of patients with an immunocompromising condition at risk for COVID-19, estimate COVID-19 prevalence rate (PR) and incidence rate (IR) by immunocompromising condition, and describe COVID-19-related healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) and costs. METHODS Using the Healthcare Integrated Research Database (HIRD), patients with ≥1 claim for an immunocompromising condition of interest or ≥2 claims for an immunosuppressive (IS) treatment and COVID-19 diagnosis during the infection period (1 April 2020-31 March 2022) and had ≥12 months baseline data were included. Cohorts (other than the composite cohort) were not mutually exclusive and were defined by each immunocompromising condition. Analyses were descriptive in nature. RESULTS Of the 16,873,161 patients in the source population, 2.7% (n = 458,049) were immunocompromised (IC). The COVID-19 IR for the composite IC cohort during the study period was 101.3 per 1000 person-years and the PR was 13.5%. The highest IR (195.0 per 1000 person-years) and PR (20.1%) were seen in the end-stage renal disease (ESRD) cohort; the lowest IR (68.3 per 1000 person-years) and PR (9.4%) were seen in the hematologic or solid tumor malignancy cohort. Mean costs for hospitalizations associated with the first COVID-19 diagnosis were estimated at nearly $1 billion (2021 United States dollars [USD]) for 14,516 IC patients, with a mean cost of $64,029 per patient. CONCLUSIONS Immunocompromised populations appear to be at substantial risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes, leading to increased costs and HCRU. Effective prophylactic options are still needed for these high-risk populations as the COVID-19 landscape evolves.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Lisa Glasser
- AstraZeneca Biopharmaceuticals Medical, Wilmington, DE, USA
| | | | | | - Chia-Chen Teng
- AstraZeneca Biopharmaceuticals Medical, Wilmington, DE, USA
| | - Christine Dube
- AstraZeneca Biopharmaceuticals Medical, Wilmington, DE, USA
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Datta D, George Dalmida S, Martinez L, Newman D, Hashemi J, Khoshgoftaar TM, Shorten C, Sareli C, Eckardt P. Using machine learning to identify patient characteristics to predict mortality of in-patients with COVID-19 in south Florida. Front Digit Health 2023; 5:1193467. [PMID: 37588022 PMCID: PMC10426497 DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2023.1193467] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2023] [Accepted: 07/12/2023] [Indexed: 08/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has created substantial health and economic burdens in the US and worldwide. As new variants continuously emerge, predicting critical clinical events in the context of relevant individual risks is a promising option for reducing the overall burden of COVID-19. This study aims to train an AI-driven decision support system that helps build a model to understand the most important features that predict the "mortality" of patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of "5,371" patients hospitalized for COVID-19-related symptoms from the South Florida Memorial Health Care System between March 14th, 2020, and January 16th, 2021. A data set comprising patients' sociodemographic characteristics, pre-existing health information, and medication was analyzed. We trained Random Forest classifier to predict "mortality" for patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Results Based on the interpretability of the model, age emerged as the primary predictor of "mortality", followed by diarrhea, diabetes, hypertension, BMI, early stages of kidney disease, smoking status, sex, pneumonia, and race in descending order of importance. Notably, individuals aged over 65 years (referred to as "older adults"), males, Whites, Hispanics, and current smokers were identified as being at higher risk of death. Additionally, BMI, specifically in the overweight and obese categories, significantly predicted "mortality". These findings indicated that the model effectively learned from various categories, such as patients' sociodemographic characteristics, pre-hospital comorbidities, and medications, with a predominant focus on characterizing pre-hospital comorbidities. Consequently, the model demonstrated the ability to predict "mortality" with transparency and reliability. Conclusion AI can potentially provide healthcare workers with the ability to stratify patients and streamline optimal care solutions when time is of the essence and resources are limited. This work sets the platform for future work that forecasts patient responses to treatments at various levels of disease severity and assesses health disparities and patient conditions that promote improved health care in a broader context. This study contributed to one of the first predictive analyses applying AI/ML techniques to COVID-19 data using a vast sample from South Florida.
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Affiliation(s)
- Debarshi Datta
- Christine E. Lynn College of Nursing, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, United States
| | - Safiya George Dalmida
- Christine E. Lynn College of Nursing, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, United States
| | - Laurie Martinez
- Christine E. Lynn College of Nursing, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, United States
| | - David Newman
- Christine E. Lynn College of Nursing, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, United States
| | - Javad Hashemi
- College of Engineering & Computer Science, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, United States
| | - Taghi M. Khoshgoftaar
- College of Engineering & Computer Science, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, United States
| | - Connor Shorten
- College of Engineering & Computer Science, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, United States
| | - Candice Sareli
- Memorial Healthcare System, Hollywood, FL, United States
| | - Paula Eckardt
- Memorial Healthcare System, Hollywood, FL, United States
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A predictive model for hospitalization and survival to COVID-19 in a retrospective population-based study. Sci Rep 2022; 12:18126. [PMID: 36307436 PMCID: PMC9614188 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-22547-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2022] [Accepted: 10/17/2022] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
The development of tools that provide early triage of COVID-19 patients with minimal use of diagnostic tests, based on easily accessible data, can be of vital importance in reducing COVID-19 mortality rates during high-incidence scenarios. This work proposes a machine learning model to predict mortality and risk of hospitalization using both 2 simple demographic features and 19 comorbidities obtained from 86,867 electronic medical records of COVID-19 patients, and a new method (LR-IPIP) designed to deal with data imbalance problems. The model was able to predict with high accuracy (90-93%, ROC-AUC = 0.94) the patient's final status (deceased or discharged), while its accuracy was medium (71-73%, ROC-AUC = 0.75) with respect to the risk of hospitalization. The most relevant characteristics for these models were age, sex, number of comorbidities, osteoarthritis, obesity, depression, and renal failure. Finally, to facilitate its use by clinicians, a user-friendly website has been developed ( https://alejandrocisterna.shinyapps.io/PROVIA ).
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Yi J, Miao J, Zuo Q, Owusu F, Dong Q, Lin P, Wang Q, Gao R, Kong X, Yang L. COVID-19 pandemic: A multidisciplinary perspective on the pathogenesis of a novel coronavirus from infection, immunity and pathological responses. Front Immunol 2022; 13:978619. [PMID: 36091053 PMCID: PMC9459044 DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2022.978619] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus2 (SARS-CoV-2), has spread to more than 200 countries and regions, having a huge impact on human health, hygiene, and economic activities. The epidemiological and clinical phenotypes of COVID-19 have increased since the onset of the epidemic era, and studies into its pathogenic mechanisms have played an essential role in clinical treatment, drug development, and prognosis prevention. This paper reviews the research progress on the pathogenesis of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), focusing on the pathogenic characteristics, loci of action, and pathogenic mechanisms leading to immune response malfunction of SARS-CoV-2, as well as summarizing the pathological damage and pathological manifestations it causes. This will update researchers on the latest SARS-CoV-2 research and provide directions for future therapeutic drug development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia Yi
- College of Traditional Chinese medicine, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China
| | - Jiameng Miao
- College of Traditional Chinese medicine, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China
| | - Qingwei Zuo
- Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China
| | - Felix Owusu
- Institute of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China
| | - Qiutong Dong
- College of Traditional Chinese medicine, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China
| | - Peizhe Lin
- College of Traditional Chinese medicine, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China
| | - Qilong Wang
- Institute of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China
| | - Rui Gao
- Institute of Clinical Pharmacology of Xiyuan Hospital, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Xianbin Kong
- College of Traditional Chinese medicine, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China
| | - Long Yang
- Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China
- School of Integrative Medicine, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China
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Rahimi E, Shahisavandi M, Royo AC, Azizi M, el Bouhaddani S, Sigari N, Sturkenboom M, Ahmadizar F. The risk profile of patients with COVID-19 as predictors of lung lesions severity and mortality—Development and validation of a prediction model. Front Microbiol 2022; 13:893750. [PMID: 35958125 PMCID: PMC9361066 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2022.893750] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2022] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective We developed and validated a prediction model based on individuals' risk profiles to predict the severity of lung involvement and death in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Methods In this retrospective study, we studied hospitalized COVID-19 patients with data on chest CT scans performed during hospital stay (February 2020-April 2021) in a training dataset (TD) (n = 2,251) and an external validation dataset (eVD) (n = 993). We used the most relevant demographical, clinical, and laboratory variables (n = 25) as potential predictors of COVID-19-related outcomes. The primary and secondary endpoints were the severity of lung involvement quantified as mild (≤25%), moderate (26–50%), severe (>50%), and in-hospital death, respectively. We applied random forest (RF) classifier, a machine learning technique, and multivariable logistic regression analysis to study our objectives. Results In the TD and the eVD, respectively, the mean [standard deviation (SD)] age was 57.9 (18.0) and 52.4 (17.6) years; patients with severe lung involvement [n (%):185 (8.2) and 116 (11.7)] were significantly older [mean (SD) age: 64.2 (16.9), and 56.2 (18.9)] than the other two groups (mild and moderate). The mortality rate was higher in patients with severe (64.9 and 38.8%) compared to moderate (5.5 and 12.4%) and mild (2.3 and 7.1%) lung involvement. The RF analysis showed age, C reactive protein (CRP) levels, and duration of hospitalizations as the three most important predictors of lung involvement severity at the time of the first CT examination. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed a significant strong association between the extent of the severity of lung involvement (continuous variable) and death; adjusted odds ratio (OR): 9.3; 95% CI: 7.1–12.1 in the TD and 2.6 (1.8–3.5) in the eVD. Conclusion In hospitalized patients with COVID-19, the severity of lung involvement is a strong predictor of death. Age, CRP levels, and duration of hospitalizations are the most important predictors of severe lung involvement. A simple prediction model based on available clinical and imaging data provides a validated tool that predicts the severity of lung involvement and death probability among hospitalized patients with COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ezat Rahimi
- Clinical Research Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Kowsar Hospital, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Mina Shahisavandi
- Epilepsy Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Albert Cid Royo
- Department of Datascience and Biostatistics, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Mohammad Azizi
- School of Medicine, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Said el Bouhaddani
- Department of Datascience and Biostatistics, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Naseh Sigari
- Lung Diseases and Allergy Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Miriam Sturkenboom
- Department of Datascience and Biostatistics, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Fariba Ahmadizar
- Department of Datascience and Biostatistics, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
- *Correspondence: Fariba Ahmadizar
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Morales Chacón LM, Galán García L, Cruz Hernández TM, Pavón Fuentes N, Maragoto Rizo C, Morales Suarez I, Morales Chacón O, Abad Molina E, Rocha Arrieta L. Clinical Phenotypes and Mortality Biomarkers: A Study Focused on COVID-19 Patients with Neurological Diseases in Intensive Care Units. Behav Sci (Basel) 2022; 12:234. [PMID: 35877304 PMCID: PMC9312189 DOI: 10.3390/bs12070234] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2022] [Revised: 06/30/2022] [Accepted: 07/05/2022] [Indexed: 12/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Purpose: To identify clinical phenotypes and biomarkers for best mortality prediction considering age, symptoms and comorbidities in COVID-19 patients with chronic neurological diseases in intensive care units (ICUs). Subjects and Methods: Data included 1252 COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs in Cuba between January and August 2021. A k-means algorithm based on unsupervised learning was used to identify clinical patterns related to symptoms, comorbidities and age. The Stable Sparse Classifiers procedure (SSC) was employed for predicting mortality. The classification performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Results: Six phenotypes using a modified v-fold cross validation for the k-means algorithm were identified: phenotype class 1, mean age 72.3 years (ys)-hypertension and coronary artery disease, alongside typical COVID-19 symptoms; class 2, mean age 63 ys-asthma, cough and fever; class 3, mean age 74.5 ys-hypertension, diabetes and cough; class 4, mean age 67.8 ys-hypertension and no symptoms; class 5, mean age 53 ys-cough and no comorbidities; class 6, mean age 60 ys-without symptoms or comorbidities. The chronic neurological disease (CND) percentage was distributed in the six phenotypes, predominantly in phenotypes of classes 3 (24.72%) and 4 (35,39%); χ² (5) 11.0129 p = 0.051134. The cerebrovascular disease was concentrated in classes 3 and 4; χ² (5) = 36.63, p = 0.000001. The mortality rate totaled 325 (25.79%), of which 56 (17.23%) had chronic neurological diseases. The highest in-hospital mortality rates were found in phenotypes 1 (37.22%) and 3 (33.98%). The SSC revealed that a neurological symptom (ageusia), together with two neurological diseases (cerebrovascular disease and Parkinson's disease), and in addition to ICU days, age and specific symptoms (fever, cough, dyspnea and chilliness) as well as particular comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes and asthma) indicated the best prediction performance (AUC = 0.67). Conclusions: The identification of clinical phenotypes and mortality biomarkers using practical variables and robust statistical methodologies make several noteworthy contributions to basic and experimental investigations for distinguishing the COVID-19 clinical spectrum and predicting mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Nancy Pavón Fuentes
- International Center for Neurological Restoration, Havana 11300, Cuba; (N.P.F.); (C.M.R.); (E.A.M.)
| | - Carlos Maragoto Rizo
- International Center for Neurological Restoration, Havana 11300, Cuba; (N.P.F.); (C.M.R.); (E.A.M.)
| | | | - Odalys Morales Chacón
- Languages Center, Technological University of Havana Jose Antonio Echeverria, La Habana 3H3M+XJ6, Cuba;
| | - Elianne Abad Molina
- International Center for Neurological Restoration, Havana 11300, Cuba; (N.P.F.); (C.M.R.); (E.A.M.)
| | - Luisa Rocha Arrieta
- Center for Research and Advanced Studies México, Ciudad de México 14330, Mexico;
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Bayly BL, Kercheval JB, Cranford JA, Girgla T, Adapa AR, Busschots GV, Li KY, Perry M, Fung CM, Greineder CF, Losman ED. The MedConnect Program: Symptomatology, Return Visits, and Hospitalization of COVID-19 Outpatients Following Discharge From the Emergency Department. Cureus 2022; 14:e26771. [PMID: 35967167 PMCID: PMC9366921 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.26771] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Background and objective Although hospitalization is required for only a minority of those infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the high rates of morbidity and mortality among these patients have led researchers to focus on the predictors of admission and adverse outcomes in the inpatient population. However, there is scarce data on the clinical trajectory of individuals symptomatic enough to present for emergency care, but not sick enough to be admitted. In light of this, we aimed to examine the symptomatology, emergency department (ED) revisits, and hospitalization of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outpatients after discharge from the ED. Methods Adult patients with COVID-19 infection were prospectively enrolled after discharge from the ED between May and December 2020. Patients were followed up longitudinally for 14 days via phone interviews designed to provide support and information and to track symptomatology, ED revisits, and hospitalization. Results A volunteer, medical student-run program enrolled 199 COVID-19 patients discharged from the ED during the first nine months of the pandemic. Of the 176 patients (88.4%) who completed the 14-day protocol, 29 (16.5%) had a second ED visit and 17 (9.6%) were admitted, 16 (9%) for worsening COVID-19 symptoms. Age, male sex, comorbid illnesses, and self-reported dyspnea, diarrhea, chills, and fever were associated with hospital admission for patients with a subsequent ED visit. For those who did not require admission, symptoms generally improved following ED discharge. Age >65 years and a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were associated with a longer duration of cough, but generally, patient characteristics and comorbidities did not significantly affect the overall number or duration of symptoms. Conclusions Nearly one in five patients discharged from the ED with COVID-19 infection had a second ED evaluation during a 14-day follow-up period, despite regular phone interactions aimed at providing support and information. More than half of them required admission for worsening COVID-19 symptoms. Established risk factors for severe disease and self-reported persistence of certain symptoms were associated with hospital admission, while those who did not require hospitalization had a steady improvement in symptoms over the 14-day period.
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Oxidative Stress-Related Mechanisms in SARS-CoV-2 Infections. OXIDATIVE MEDICINE AND CELLULAR LONGEVITY 2022; 2022:5589089. [PMID: 35281470 PMCID: PMC8906126 DOI: 10.1155/2022/5589089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2021] [Revised: 08/11/2021] [Accepted: 02/07/2022] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic caused relatively high mortality in patients, especially in those with concomitant diseases (i.e., diabetes, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)). In most of aforementioned comorbidities, the oxidative stress appears to be an important player in their pathogenesis. The direct cause of death in critically ill patients with COVID-19 is still far from being elucidated. Although some preliminary data suggests that the lung vasculature injury and the loss of the functioning part of pulmonary alveolar population are crucial, the precise mechanism is still unclear. On the other hand, at least two classes of medications used with some clinical benefits in COVID-19 treatment seem to have a major influence on ROS (reactive oxygen species) and RNS (reactive nitrogen species) production. However, oxidative stress is one of the important mechanisms in the antiviral immune response and innate immunity. Therefore, it would be of interest to summarize the data regarding the oxidative stress in severe COVID-19. In this review, we discuss the role of oxidative and antioxidant mechanisms in severe COVID-19 based on available studies. We also present the role of ROS and RNS in other viral infections in humans and in animal models. Although reactive oxygen and nitrogen species play an important role in the innate antiviral immune response, in some situations, they might have a deleterious effect, e.g., in some coronaviral infections. The understanding of the redox mechanisms in severe COVID-19 disease may have an impact on its treatment.
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Volkman HR, Pérez-Padilla J, Wong JM, Sánchez-González L, Acevedo-Molina L, Lugo-Menéndez M, Oliveras García CA, Adams LE, Frasqueri-Quintana VM, Rodriguez-Gonzalez R, González-Cosme JA, Calvo Díaz AE, Alvarado LI, Rivera-Amill V, Brown J, Wong KK, Bertrán-Pasarell J, Paz-Bailey G. Characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-Puerto Rico, March-August 2020. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0260599. [PMID: 34855817 PMCID: PMC8638975 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260599] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2021] [Accepted: 11/12/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Hispanics are the majority ethnic population in Puerto Rico where we reviewed charts of 109 hospitalized COVID-19 patients to better understand demographic and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 and determine risk factors for poor outcomes. Eligible medical records of hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 illnesses were reviewed at four participating hospitals in population centers across Puerto Rico and data were abstracted that described the clinical course, interventions, and outcomes. We found hospitalized patients had a median of 3 underlying conditions with obesity and diabetes as the most frequently reported conditions. Intensive care unit (ICU) admission occurred among 28% of patients and 18% of patients died during the hospitalization. Patients 65 or older or with immune deficiencies had a higher risk for death. Common symptoms included cough, dyspnea, and fatigue; less than half of patients in the study reported fever which was less frequent than reported elsewhere in the literature. It is important for interventions within Hispanic communities to protect high-risk groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah R. Volkman
- U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Janice Pérez-Padilla
- U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Joshua M. Wong
- U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Liliana Sánchez-González
- U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Lauren Acevedo-Molina
- Hospital Auxilio Mutuo and Adult’s University Hospital, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Martin Lugo-Menéndez
- Centro Médico Episcopal San Lucas, Ponce Health Sciences University/Ponce Research Institute, Ponce, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Carene A. Oliveras García
- Centro Médico Episcopal San Lucas, Ponce Health Sciences University/Ponce Research Institute, Ponce, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Laura E. Adams
- U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Verónica M. Frasqueri-Quintana
- Centro Médico Episcopal San Lucas, Ponce Health Sciences University/Ponce Research Institute, Ponce, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Robert Rodriguez-Gonzalez
- Centro Médico Episcopal San Lucas, Ponce Health Sciences University/Ponce Research Institute, Ponce, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | | | - Andrés E. Calvo Díaz
- Hospital Universitario Dr. Ramón Ruiz Arnau, Bayamón, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Luisa I. Alvarado
- Centro Médico Episcopal San Lucas, Ponce Health Sciences University/Ponce Research Institute, Ponce, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Vanessa Rivera-Amill
- Centro Médico Episcopal San Lucas, Ponce Health Sciences University/Ponce Research Institute, Ponce, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Jessica Brown
- U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Karen K. Wong
- U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Jorge Bertrán-Pasarell
- Hospital Auxilio Mutuo and Adult’s University Hospital, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Gabriela Paz-Bailey
- U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
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13
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Zhabokritsky A, Daneman N, MacPhee S, Estrada-Codecido J, Santoro A, Kit Chan A, Wai-Hei Lam P, Simor A, Allen Leis J, Mubareka S, Andany N. Association between initial symptoms and subsequent hospitalization in outpatients with COVID-19: A cohort study. JOURNAL OF THE ASSOCIATION OF MEDICAL MICROBIOLOGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE CANADA = JOURNAL OFFICIEL DE L'ASSOCIATION POUR LA MICROBIOLOGIE MEDICALE ET L'INFECTIOLOGIE CANADA 2021; 6:259-268. [PMID: 36338454 PMCID: PMC9629262 DOI: 10.3138/jammi-2021-0012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2021] [Accepted: 07/20/2021] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Most individuals with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) experience mild symptoms and are managed in the outpatient setting. The aim of this study was to determine whether self-reported symptoms at the time of diagnosis can identify patients at risk of clinical deterioration. METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study of 671 outpatients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosed in Toronto between March 1 and October 16, 2020. We examined the association between patients' baseline characteristics and self-reported symptoms at the time of diagnosis and the risk of subsequent hospitalization. RESULTS Of 671 participants, 26 (3.9%) required hospitalization. Individuals aged 65 years or older were more likely to require hospitalization (odds ratio [OR] 5.29, 95% CI 2.19 to 12.77), whereas those without medical comorbidities were unlikely to be hospitalized (OR 0.02, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.17). After adjusting for age and presence of comorbidities, sputum production (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.01, 95% CI 1.97 to 12.75), arthralgias (aOR 4.82, 95% CI 1.85 to 12.53), diarrhea (aOR 4.56, 95% CI 1.82 to 11.42), fever (aOR 3.64, 95% CI 1.50 to 8.82), chills (aOR 3.62, 95% CI 1.54 to 8.50), and fatigue (aOR 2.59, 95% CI 1.04 to 6.47) were associated with subsequent hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS Early assessment of symptoms among outpatients with COVID-19 can help identify individuals at risk of clinical deterioration. Additional studies are needed to determine whether more intense follow-up and early intervention among high-risk individuals can alter the clinical trajectory of and outcomes among outpatients with COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Nick Daneman
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Scott MacPhee
- Department of Nursing, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jose Estrada-Codecido
- Sunnybrook Research Institute, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Aimee Santoro
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Adrienne Kit Chan
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Philip Wai-Hei Lam
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Andrew Simor
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jerome Allen Leis
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Samira Mubareka
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Nisha Andany
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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14
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Spanier AM, Gragg JI. Myasthenic Crisis After Recurrent COVID-19 Infection. Fed Pract 2021; 38:382-386. [PMID: 34733091 DOI: 10.12788/fp.0166] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
A patient with myasthenia gravis who survived 2 COVID-19 infections required plasmapheresis to recover from an acute crisis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam M Spanier
- is a Resident, and is a Faculty Member, both at Carl R. Darnall Army Medical Center in Fort Hood, Texas
| | - James I Gragg
- is a Resident, and is a Faculty Member, both at Carl R. Darnall Army Medical Center in Fort Hood, Texas
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15
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Xu J, Xiao W, Liang X, Shi L, Zhang P, Wang Y, Wang Y, Yang H. A meta-analysis on the risk factors adjusted association between cardiovascular disease and COVID-19 severity. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:1533. [PMID: 34380456 PMCID: PMC8355578 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-11051-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2020] [Accepted: 05/12/2021] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease (CVD), one of the most common comorbidities of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been suspected to be associated with adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients, but their correlation remains controversial. METHOD This is a quantitative meta-analysis on the basis of adjusted effect estimates. PubMed, Web of Science, MedRxiv, Scopus, Elsevier ScienceDirect, Cochrane Library and EMBASE were searched comprehensively to obtain a complete data source up to January 7, 2021. Pooled effects (hazard ratio (HR), odds ratio (OR)) and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated to evaluate the risk of the adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients with CVD. Heterogeneity was assessed by Cochran's Q-statistic, I2test, and meta-regression. In addition, we also provided the prediction interval, which was helpful for assessing whether the variation across studies was clinically significant. The robustness of the results was evaluated by sensitivity analysis. Publication bias was assessed by Begg's test, Egger's test, and trim-and-fill method. RESULT Our results revealed that COVID-19 patients with pre-existing CVD tended more to adverse outcomes on the basis of 203 eligible studies with 24,032,712 cases (pooled ORs = 1.41, 95% CIs: 1.32-1.51, prediction interval: 0.84-2.39; pooled HRs = 1.34, 95% CIs: 1.23-1.46, prediction interval: 0.82-2.21). Further subgroup analyses stratified by age, the proportion of males, study design, disease types, sample size, region and disease outcomes also showed that pre-existing CVD was significantly associated with adverse outcomes among COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSION Our findings demonstrated that pre-existing CVD was an independent risk factor associated with adverse outcomes among COVID-19 patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Xu
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, No. 100 of Science Avenue, Zhengzhou, 450001, China
| | - Wenwei Xiao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, No. 100 of Science Avenue, Zhengzhou, 450001, China
| | - Xuan Liang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, No. 100 of Science Avenue, Zhengzhou, 450001, China
| | - Li Shi
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, No. 100 of Science Avenue, Zhengzhou, 450001, China
| | - Peihua Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, No. 100 of Science Avenue, Zhengzhou, 450001, China
| | - Ying Wang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, No. 100 of Science Avenue, Zhengzhou, 450001, China
| | - Yadong Wang
- Department of Toxicology, Henan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou, 450016, China
| | - Haiyan Yang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, No. 100 of Science Avenue, Zhengzhou, 450001, China.
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16
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Yamada G, Hayakawa K, Matsunaga N, Terada M, Suzuki S, Asai Y, Ohtsu H, Toyoda A, Kitajima K, Tsuzuki S, Saito S, Ohmagari N. Predicting respiratory failure for COVID-19 patients in Japan: a simple clinical score for evaluating the need for hospitalisation. Epidemiol Infect 2021; 149:e175. [PMID: 36043382 PMCID: PMC8365048 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268821001837] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Predicting the need for hospitalisation of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is important for preventing healthcare disruptions. This observational study aimed to use the COVID-19 Registry Japan (COVIREGI-JP) to develop a simple scoring system to predict respiratory failure due to COVID-19 using only underlying diseases and symptoms. A total of 6873 patients with COVID-19 admitted to Japanese medical institutions between 1 June 2020 and 2 December 2020 were included and divided into derivation and validation cohorts according to the date of admission. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to create a simple risk score model, with respiratory failure as the outcome for young (18-39 years), middle-aged (40-64 years) and older (≥65 years) groups, using sex, age, body mass index, medical history and symptoms. The models selected for each age group were quite different. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the simple risk score model were 0.87, 0.79 and 0.80 for young, middle-aged and elderly derivation cohorts, and 0.81, 0.80 and 0.67 in the validation cohorts. Calibration of the model was good. The simple scoring system may be useful in the appropriate allocation of medical resources during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gen Yamada
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
- Author for correspondence: Gen Yamada, E-mail:
| | - Kayoko Hayakawa
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
- AMR Clinical Reference Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Nobuaki Matsunaga
- AMR Clinical Reference Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mari Terada
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
- Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Setsuko Suzuki
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yusuke Asai
- AMR Clinical Reference Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Ohtsu
- Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Ako Toyoda
- Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Koji Kitajima
- Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Shinya Tsuzuki
- AMR Clinical Reference Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Sho Saito
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Norio Ohmagari
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
- AMR Clinical Reference Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
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17
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Jaberi-Douraki M, Meyer E, Riviere J, Gedara NIM, Kawakami J, Wyckoff GJ, Xu X. Pulmonary adverse drug event data in hypertension with implications on COVID-19 morbidity. Sci Rep 2021; 11:13349. [PMID: 34172790 PMCID: PMC8233397 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-92734-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2020] [Accepted: 06/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Hypertension is a recognized comorbidity for COVID-19. The association of antihypertensive medications with outcomes in patients with hypertension is not fully described. However, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), responsible for host entry of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) leading to COVID-19, is postulated to be upregulated in patients taking angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs). Here, we evaluated the occurrence of pulmonary adverse drug events (ADEs) in patients with hypertension receiving ACEIs/ARBs to determine if disparities exist between individual drugs within the respective classes using data from the FDA Spontaneous Reporting Systems. For this purpose, we proposed the proportional reporting ratio to provide a statistical summary for the commonality of an ADE for a specific drug as compared to the entire database for drugs in the same or other classes. In addition, a statistical procedure, multiple logistic regression analysis, was employed to correct hidden confounders when causative covariates are underreported or untrusted to correct analyses of drug-ADE combinations. To date, analyses have been focused on drug classes rather than individual drugs which may have different ADE profiles depending on the underlying diseases present. A retrospective analysis of thirteen pulmonary ADEs showed significant differences associated with quinapril and trandolapril, compared to other ACEIs and ARBs. Specifically, quinapril and trandolapril were found to have a statistically significantly higher incidence of pulmonary ADEs compared with other ACEIs as well as ARBs (P < 0.0001) for group comparison (i.e., ACEIs vs. ARBs vs. quinapril vs. trandolapril) and (P ≤ 0.0007) for pairwise comparison (i.e., ACEIs vs. quinapril, ACEIs vs. trandolapril, ARBs vs. quinapril, or ARBs vs. trandolapril). This study suggests that specific members of the ACEI antihypertensive class (quinapril and trandolapril) have a significantly higher cluster of pulmonary ADEs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Majid Jaberi-Douraki
- 1DATA Consortium, Manhattan, USA.
- Kansas State University Olathe, Olathe, KS, 66061-1304, USA.
- Department of Mathematics, Kansas State University, Manhattan, USA.
| | - Emma Meyer
- 1DATA Consortium, Manhattan, USA
- Division of Pharmacology and Pharmaceutical Sciences, School of Pharmacy, University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, USA
| | - Jim Riviere
- 1DATA Consortium, Manhattan, USA
- Kansas State University, Manhattan, USA
- North Carolina State University, Raleigh, USA
| | - Nuwan Indika Millagaha Gedara
- 1DATA Consortium, Manhattan, USA
- Kansas State University Olathe, Olathe, KS, 66061-1304, USA
- Department of Business Economics, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | - Jessica Kawakami
- 1DATA Consortium, Manhattan, USA
- Division of Pharmacology and Pharmaceutical Sciences, School of Pharmacy, University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, USA
- Molecular Biology and Biochemistry, School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, USA
| | - Gerald J Wyckoff
- 1DATA Consortium, Manhattan, USA
- Division of Pharmacology and Pharmaceutical Sciences, School of Pharmacy, University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, USA
- Molecular Biology and Biochemistry, School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, USA
| | - Xuan Xu
- 1DATA Consortium, Manhattan, USA
- Kansas State University Olathe, Olathe, KS, 66061-1304, USA
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18
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Rocha SQ, Avelino-Silva VI, Tancredi MV, Jamal LF, Ferreira PRA, Tayra A, Ferreira PM, Carvalhanas T, Domingues CSB, Souza RA, Gianna MC, Kalichman AO, Leite OHM, Souza TNL, Gomes E Costa DA, Furtado JJD, Costa AF. COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS in a cohort study in Sao Paulo, Brazil: outcomes and disparities by race and schooling. AIDS Care 2021; 34:832-838. [PMID: 34082616 DOI: 10.1080/09540121.2021.1936444] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Studies describing characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 among people living with HIV are currently limited, lacking detailed evaluation of the interplay among demographics, HIV-related variables, and comorbidities on COVID-19 outcomes. This retrospective cohort study describes mortality rates overall and according to demographic characteristics and explores predictors of admission to intensive care unit and death among 255 persons living with HIV with severe acute respiratory syndrome and confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. We found that the overall mortality rate was 4.1/1,000 person-days, with a case-fatality of 34%. Higher rates occurred among older adults, Black/Mixed skin color/race patients, and those with lower schooling. In a multivariable analysis adjusted for age, sex, CD4 count, viral load and number of comorbidities, skin color/race, and schooling remained significantly associated with higher mortality. Although tenofovir use was more frequent among survivors in the univariable analysis, we failed to find a statistically significant association between tenofovir use and survival in the multivariable analysis. Our findings suggest that social vulnerabilities related to both HIV and COVID-19 significantly impact the risk of death, overtaking traditional risk factors such as age, sex, CD4 count, and comorbidities.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Q Rocha
- Centro de Referência e Treinamento DST/Aids - São Paulo (CRT-DST/Aids) Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - V I Avelino-Silva
- Department of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (HC-FMUSP), São Paulo, Brazil
| | - M V Tancredi
- Centro de Referência e Treinamento DST/Aids - São Paulo (CRT-DST/Aids) Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - L F Jamal
- Centro de Referência e Treinamento DST/Aids - São Paulo (CRT-DST/Aids) Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - P R A Ferreira
- Disciplina de Infectologia, Escola Paulista de Medicina - Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), São Paulo, Brazil
| | - A Tayra
- Centro de Referência e Treinamento DST/Aids - São Paulo (CRT-DST/Aids) Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - P M Ferreira
- Centro de Vigilância Epidemiológica - São Paulo (CVE), São Paulo, Brazil
| | - T Carvalhanas
- Centro de Vigilância Epidemiológica - São Paulo (CVE), São Paulo, Brazil
| | - C S B Domingues
- Centro de Referência e Treinamento DST/Aids - São Paulo (CRT-DST/Aids) Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - R A Souza
- Centro de Referência e Treinamento DST/Aids - São Paulo (CRT-DST/Aids) Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - M C Gianna
- Centro de Referência e Treinamento DST/Aids - São Paulo (CRT-DST/Aids) Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - A O Kalichman
- Centro de Referência e Treinamento DST/Aids - São Paulo (CRT-DST/Aids) Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - O H M Leite
- Faculdade de Medicina do ABC - Centro Universitário Saúde do ABC (FM-ABC) Santo Andre, Brazil
| | - T N L Souza
- Instituto de Infectologia Emílio Ribas - SES/SP (IIER), São Paulo, Brazil
| | - D A Gomes E Costa
- Hospital do Servidor Público Estadual de São Paulo (HSPE), São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - A F Costa
- Centro de Referência e Treinamento DST/Aids - São Paulo (CRT-DST/Aids) Sao Paulo, Brazil.,Department of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (HC-FMUSP), São Paulo, Brazil
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- Centro de Referência e Treinamento DST/Aids - São Paulo (CRT-DST/Aids) Sao Paulo, Brazil
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19
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Landes SD, Turk MA, Damiani MR, Proctor P, Baier S. Risk Factors Associated With COVID-19 Outcomes Among People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities Receiving Residential Services. JAMA Netw Open 2021; 4:e2112862. [PMID: 34100935 PMCID: PMC8188265 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.12862] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Although there is evidence of more severe COVID-19 outcomes, there is no information describing the risk factors for COVID-19 diagnosis and/or mortality among people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) receiving residential support services in the US. OBJECTIVE To identify associations between demographic characteristics, residential characteristics, and/or preexisting health conditions and COVID-19 diagnosis and mortality for people with IDD receiving residential support services. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cohort study tracked COVID-19 outcomes for 543 individuals with IDD. Participants were receiving support services from a single organization providing residential services in the 5 boroughs of New York City from March 1 to October 1, 2020. Statistical analysis was performed from December 2020 to February 2021. EXPOSURES Resident-level characteristics, including age, sex, race/ethnicity, disability status, residential characteristics, and preexisting medical conditions. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES COVID-19 diagnosis was confirmed by laboratory test. COVID-19 mortality indicated that the individual died from COVID-19 during the course of the study. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate associations between demographic characteristics, residential characteristics, and preexisting health conditions and COVID-19 diagnosis and mortality. RESULTS Among the 543 individuals with IDD in the study, the median (interquartile range) age was 57.0 (45-65) years; 217 (40.0%) were female, and 274 (50.5%) were Black, Asian/Pacific Islander, American Indian or Alaskan Native, or Hispanic. The case rate was 16 759 (95% CI, 13 853-20 131) per 100 000; the mortality rate was 6446 (95% CI, 4671-8832) per 100 000; and the case-fatality rate was 38.5% (95% CI, 29.1%-48.7%). Increased age (odds ratio [OR], 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.06), Down syndrome (OR, 2.91; 95% CI, 1.49-5.69), an increased number of residents (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.00-1.14), and chronic kidney disease (OR, 4.17; 95% CI, 1.90-9.15) were associated with COVID-19 diagnosis. Heart disease (OR, 10.60; 95% CI, 2.68-41.90) was associated with COVID-19 mortality. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study found that, similar to the general population, increased age and preexisting health conditions were associated with COVID-19 outcomes for people with IDD receiving residential support services in New York City. As with older adults living in nursing homes, number of residents was also associated with more severe COVID-19 outcomes. Unique to people with IDD was an increased risk of COVID-19 diagnosis for people with Down syndrome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Scott D. Landes
- Department of Sociology and Aging Studies Institute, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York
| | - Margaret A. Turk
- Department of Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York
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Yamada G, Hayakawa K, Asai Y, Matsunaga N, Ohtsu H, Hojo M, Hashimoto M, Kobayashi K, Sasaki R, Okamoto T, Yanagawa Y, Katagiri D, Terada M, Suzuki M, Sato L, Miyazato Y, Ishikane M, Morioka S, Saito S, Ohmagari N. External validation and update of prediction models for unfavorable outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Japan. J Infect Chemother 2021; 27:1043-1050. [PMID: 33865699 PMCID: PMC8041181 DOI: 10.1016/j.jiac.2021.04.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2021] [Revised: 03/23/2021] [Accepted: 04/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Introduction Most of the currently used prognostic models for COVID-19 are based on Western cohorts, but it is unknown whether any are applicable to patients with COVID-19 in Japan. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 160 patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to the National Center for Global Health and Medicine between January 26, 2020 and July 25, 2020. We searched PubMed for prognostic models for COVID-19. The predicted outcome was initiation of respiratory support or death. Performance of the candidate models was evaluated according to discrimination and calibration. We recalibrated the intercept of each model with our data. We also updated each model by adding β2-microglobulin (β2MG) to the model and recalculating the intercept and the coefficient of β2MG. Results Mean patient age was 49.8 years, 68% were male, 88.7% were Japanese. The study outcomes occurred in 15 patients, including two deaths. Two-hundred sixty-nine papers were screened, and four candidate prognostic models were assessed. The model of Bartoletti et al. had the highest area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.81–0.96). All four models overestimated the probability of occurrence of the outcome. None of the four models showed statistically significant improvement in AUCs by adding β2MG. Conclusions Our results suggest that the existing prediction models for COVID-19 overestimate the probability of occurrence of unfavorable outcomes in a Japanese cohort. When applying a prediction model to a different cohort, it is desirable to evaluate its performance according to the prevalent health situation in that region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gen Yamada
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan.
| | - Kayoko Hayakawa
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan; AMR Clinical Reference Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Yusuke Asai
- AMR Clinical Reference Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Nobuaki Matsunaga
- AMR Clinical Reference Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Ohtsu
- Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Masayuki Hojo
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Masao Hashimoto
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Kentaro Kobayashi
- Department of Emergency Medicine and Critical Care, Center Hospital of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Ryo Sasaki
- Department of Emergency Medicine and Critical Care, Center Hospital of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Tatsuya Okamoto
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Center Hospital of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Yasuaki Yanagawa
- AIDS Clinical Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Daisuke Katagiri
- Department of Nephrology, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Mari Terada
- AMR Clinical Reference Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan; Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Michiyo Suzuki
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Lubna Sato
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Yusuke Miyazato
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Masahiro Ishikane
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Shinichiro Morioka
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Sho Saito
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Norio Ohmagari
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan; AMR Clinical Reference Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
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Diep AN, Gilbert A, Saegerman C, Gangolf M, D'Orio V, Ghuysen A, Donneau AF. Development and validation of a predictive model to determine the level of care in patients confirmed with COVID-19. Infect Dis (Lond) 2021; 53:590-599. [PMID: 33793352 DOI: 10.1080/23744235.2021.1903548] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has imposed significant challenges on hospital capacity. While mitigating unnecessary crowding in hospitals is favourable to reduce viral transmission, it is more important to prevent readmissions with impaired clinical status due to initially inappropriate level of care. A validated predictive tool to assist clinical decisions for patient triage and facilitate remote stratification is of critical importance. METHODS We conducted a retrospective study in patients with confirmed COVID-19 stratified into two levels of care, namely ambulatory care and hospitalization. Data on socio-demographics, clinical symptoms, and comorbidities were collected during the first (N = 571) and second waves (N = 174) of the pandemic in Belgium (2 March to 6 December 2020). Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to build and validate the prediction model. RESULTS Significant predictors of hospitalization were old age (OR = 1.08, 95%CI:1.06-1.10), male gender (OR = 4.41, 95%CI: 2.58-7.52), dyspnoea (OR 6.11, 95%CI: 3.58-10.45), dry cough (OR 2.89, 95%CI: 1.54-5.41), wet cough (OR 4.62, 95%CI: 1.93-11.06), hypertension (OR 2.20, 95%CI: 1.17-4.16) and renal failure (OR 5.39, 95%CI: 1.00-29.00). Rhinorrhea (OR 0.43, 95%CI: 0.24-0.79) and headache (OR 0.36, 95%CI: 0.20-0.65) were negatively associated with hospitalization. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed and the area under the ROC curve was 0.931 (95% CI: 0.910-0.953) for the prediction model (first wave) and 0.895 (95% CI: 0.833-0.957) for the validated dataset (second wave). CONCLUSION With a good discriminating power, the prediction model might identify patients who require ambulatory care or hospitalization and support clinical decisions by Emergency Department staff and general practitioners.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anh Nguyet Diep
- Public Health Department, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.,Biostatistics Unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.,Information Technology Department, Can Tho University, Can Tho, Vietnam
| | - Allison Gilbert
- Emergency Department, University Hospital Center of Liège, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
| | - Claude Saegerman
- Fundamental and Applied Research for Animal and Health (FARAH) Center, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
| | - Marjorie Gangolf
- Department of Medico-Economic Information, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
| | - Vincent D'Orio
- Emergency Department, University Hospital Center of Liège, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
| | - Alexandre Ghuysen
- Public Health Department, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.,Emergency Department, University Hospital Center of Liège, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
| | - Anne-Françoise Donneau
- Public Health Department, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.,Biostatistics Unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
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Wynants L, Van Calster B, Collins GS, Riley RD, Heinze G, Schuit E, Bonten MMJ, Dahly DL, Damen JAA, Debray TPA, de Jong VMT, De Vos M, Dhiman P, Haller MC, Harhay MO, Henckaerts L, Heus P, Kammer M, Kreuzberger N, Lohmann A, Luijken K, Ma J, Martin GP, McLernon DJ, Andaur Navarro CL, Reitsma JB, Sergeant JC, Shi C, Skoetz N, Smits LJM, Snell KIE, Sperrin M, Spijker R, Steyerberg EW, Takada T, Tzoulaki I, van Kuijk SMJ, van Bussel B, van der Horst ICC, van Royen FS, Verbakel JY, Wallisch C, Wilkinson J, Wolff R, Hooft L, Moons KGM, van Smeden M. Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19: systematic review and critical appraisal. BMJ 2020; 369:m1328. [PMID: 32265220 PMCID: PMC7222643 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m1328] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1640] [Impact Index Per Article: 410.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/31/2020] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To review and appraise the validity and usefulness of published and preprint reports of prediction models for diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in patients with suspected infection, for prognosis of patients with covid-19, and for detecting people in the general population at increased risk of covid-19 infection or being admitted to hospital with the disease. DESIGN Living systematic review and critical appraisal by the COVID-PRECISE (Precise Risk Estimation to optimise covid-19 Care for Infected or Suspected patients in diverse sEttings) group. DATA SOURCES PubMed and Embase through Ovid, up to 1 July 2020, supplemented with arXiv, medRxiv, and bioRxiv up to 5 May 2020. STUDY SELECTION Studies that developed or validated a multivariable covid-19 related prediction model. DATA EXTRACTION At least two authors independently extracted data using the CHARMS (critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies) checklist; risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST (prediction model risk of bias assessment tool). RESULTS 37 421 titles were screened, and 169 studies describing 232 prediction models were included. The review identified seven models for identifying people at risk in the general population; 118 diagnostic models for detecting covid-19 (75 were based on medical imaging, 10 to diagnose disease severity); and 107 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk, progression to severe disease, intensive care unit admission, ventilation, intubation, or length of hospital stay. The most frequent types of predictors included in the covid-19 prediction models are vital signs, age, comorbidities, and image features. Flu-like symptoms are frequently predictive in diagnostic models, while sex, C reactive protein, and lymphocyte counts are frequent prognostic factors. Reported C index estimates from the strongest form of validation available per model ranged from 0.71 to 0.99 in prediction models for the general population, from 0.65 to more than 0.99 in diagnostic models, and from 0.54 to 0.99 in prognostic models. All models were rated at high or unclear risk of bias, mostly because of non-representative selection of control patients, exclusion of patients who had not experienced the event of interest by the end of the study, high risk of model overfitting, and unclear reporting. Many models did not include a description of the target population (n=27, 12%) or care setting (n=75, 32%), and only 11 (5%) were externally validated by a calibration plot. The Jehi diagnostic model and the 4C mortality score were identified as promising models. CONCLUSION Prediction models for covid-19 are quickly entering the academic literature to support medical decision making at a time when they are urgently needed. This review indicates that almost all pubished prediction models are poorly reported, and at high risk of bias such that their reported predictive performance is probably optimistic. However, we have identified two (one diagnostic and one prognostic) promising models that should soon be validated in multiple cohorts, preferably through collaborative efforts and data sharing to also allow an investigation of the stability and heterogeneity in their performance across populations and settings. Details on all reviewed models are publicly available at https://www.covprecise.org/. Methodological guidance as provided in this paper should be followed because unreliable predictions could cause more harm than benefit in guiding clinical decisions. Finally, prediction model authors should adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guideline. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION Protocol https://osf.io/ehc47/, registration https://osf.io/wy245. READERS' NOTE This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This version is update 3 of the original article published on 7 April 2020 (BMJ 2020;369:m1328). Previous updates can be found as data supplements (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1328/related#datasupp). When citing this paper please consider adding the update number and date of access for clarity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laure Wynants
- Department of Epidemiology, CAPHRI Care and Public Health Research Institute, Maastricht University, Peter Debyeplein 1, 6229 HA Maastricht, Netherlands
- Department of Development and Regeneration, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Ben Van Calster
- Department of Development and Regeneration, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, Netherlands
| | - Gary S Collins
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK
| | - Richard D Riley
- Centre for Prognosis Research, School of Primary, Community and Social Care, Keele University, Keele, UK
| | - Georg Heinze
- Section for Clinical Biometrics, Centre for Medical Statistics, Informatics and Intelligent Systems, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Ewoud Schuit
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Marc M J Bonten
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Department of Medical Microbiology, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Darren L Dahly
- HRB Clinical Research Facility, Cork, Ireland
- School of Public Health, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
| | - Johanna A A Damen
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Thomas P A Debray
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Valentijn M T de Jong
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Maarten De Vos
- Department of Development and Regeneration, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- Department of Electrical Engineering, ESAT Stadius, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Paul Dhiman
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK
| | - Maria C Haller
- Section for Clinical Biometrics, Centre for Medical Statistics, Informatics and Intelligent Systems, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Ordensklinikum Linz, Hospital Elisabethinen, Department of Nephrology, Linz, Austria
| | - Michael O Harhay
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
- Palliative and Advanced Illness Research Center and Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Liesbet Henckaerts
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, KU Leuven-University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- Department of General Internal Medicine, KU Leuven-University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Pauline Heus
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Michael Kammer
- Section for Clinical Biometrics, Centre for Medical Statistics, Informatics and Intelligent Systems, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Nephrology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Nina Kreuzberger
- Evidence-Based Oncology, Department I of Internal Medicine and Centre for Integrated Oncology Aachen Bonn Cologne Dusseldorf, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Anna Lohmann
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, Netherlands
| | - Kim Luijken
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, Netherlands
| | - Jie Ma
- NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK
| | - Glen P Martin
- Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - David J McLernon
- Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Constanza L Andaur Navarro
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Johannes B Reitsma
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Jamie C Sergeant
- Centre for Biostatistics, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK
- Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK
| | - Chunhu Shi
- Division of Nursing, Midwifery and Social Work, School of Health Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Nicole Skoetz
- Department of Nephrology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Luc J M Smits
- Department of Epidemiology, CAPHRI Care and Public Health Research Institute, Maastricht University, Peter Debyeplein 1, 6229 HA Maastricht, Netherlands
| | - Kym I E Snell
- Centre for Prognosis Research, School of Primary, Community and Social Care, Keele University, Keele, UK
| | - Matthew Sperrin
- Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - René Spijker
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health, Medical Library, Netherlands
| | - Ewout W Steyerberg
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, Netherlands
| | - Toshihiko Takada
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Ioanna Tzoulaki
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London School of Public Health, London, UK
- Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina Medical School, Ioannina, Greece
| | - Sander M J van Kuijk
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Technology Assessment, Maastricht University Medical Centre+, Maastricht, Netherlands
| | - Bas van Bussel
- Department of Epidemiology, CAPHRI Care and Public Health Research Institute, Maastricht University, Peter Debyeplein 1, 6229 HA Maastricht, Netherlands
- Department of Intensive Care, Maastricht University Medical Centre+, Maastricht University, Maastricht, Netherlands
| | - Iwan C C van der Horst
- Department of Intensive Care, Maastricht University Medical Centre+, Maastricht University, Maastricht, Netherlands
| | - Florien S van Royen
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Jan Y Verbakel
- EPI-Centre, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Christine Wallisch
- Section for Clinical Biometrics, Centre for Medical Statistics, Informatics and Intelligent Systems, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Berlin Institute of Health, Berlin, Germany
| | - Jack Wilkinson
- Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | | | - Lotty Hooft
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Karel G M Moons
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Maarten van Smeden
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
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