Health Warnings on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages: Simulation of Impacts on Diet and Obesity Among U.S. Adults

Developing messages to encourage healthy, sustainable dietary substitutions: A qualitative study with US emerging adults

Prior research shows that adopting simple dietary substitutions (e.g., replacing beef with poultry or plant-based entrees) can improve dietary quality and reduce the negative environmental consequences of food production, but little is known about how to encourage people to adopt these substitutions. This study aimed to examine reactions to messages encouraging healthy, sustainable dietary substitutions among emerging adults ages 18-25. We conducted four online focus groups with a diverse sample of US emerging adults (n = 28; 61% female). Focus groups explored emerging adults' reactions to messages encouraging them to adopt three target dietary substitutions: replacing beef and pork with poultry and plant-based entrees; replacing juice with whole fruit; and replacing dairy milk with non-dairy milk. We transcribed discussions verbatim and adopted a thematic approach to analyzing the transcripts. Results showed that participants perceived messages to be most effective at encouraging the target dietary substitutions when the messages: encouraged specific, achievable dietary changes; linked these dietary changes to clear consequences; included personally relevant content; included statistics; were succinct; and used a positive tone. Across the target dietary substitutions, two message topics (small changes, big benefits, which emphasized how small dietary changes can have large positive health and environmental impacts, and warning, which discussed the negative health and environmental impacts of dietary choices) were generally perceived to be most effective. A few participants expressed doubt that the target dietary substitutions would have meaningful environmental impacts. Results suggest that campaign messages to encourage healthy, sustainable dietary substitutions may be more effective if the messages make the target dietary substitutions seem achievable and use statistics to clearly describe the positive impacts of making these changes.

Transportability Without Positivity: A Synthesis of Statistical and Simulation Modeling

Studies designed to estimate the effect of an action in a randomized or observational setting often do not represent a random sample of the desired target population. Instead, estimates from that study can be transported to the target population. However, transportability methods generally rely on a positivity assumption, such that all relevant covariate patterns in the target population are also observed in the study sample. Strict eligibility criteria, particularly in the context of randomized trials, may lead to violations of this assumption. Two common approaches to address positivity violations are restricting the target population and restricting the relevant covariate set. As neither of these restrictions is ideal, we instead propose a synthesis of statistical and simulation models to address positivity violations. We propose corresponding g-computation and inverse probability weighting estimators. The restriction and synthesis approaches to addressing positivity violations are contrasted with a simulation experiment and an illustrative example in the context of sexually transmitted infection testing uptake. In both cases, the proposed synthesis approach accurately addressed the original research question when paired with a thoughtfully selected simulation model. Neither of the restriction approaches was able to accurately address the motivating question. As public health decisions must often be made with imperfect target population information, model synthesis is a viable approach given a combination of empirical data and external information based on the best available knowledge.

Cost Effectiveness of Calorie Labeling at Large Fast-Food Chains Across the U.S

INTRODUCTION

Calorie labeling of standard menu items has been implemented at large restaurant chains across the U.S. since 2018. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of calorie labeling at large U.S. fast-food chains.

METHODS

This study evaluated the national implementation of calorie labeling at large fast-food chains from a modified societal perspective and projected its cost effectiveness over a 10-year period (2018-2027) using the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study microsimulation model. Using evidence from over 67 million fast-food restaurant transactions between 2015 and 2019, the impact of calorie labeling on calorie consumption and obesity incidence was projected. Benefits were estimated across all racial, ethnic, and income groups. Analyses were performed in 2022.

RESULTS

Calorie labeling is estimated to be cost saving; prevent 550,000 cases of obesity in 2027 alone (95% uncertainty interval=518,000; 586,000), including 41,500 (95% uncertainty interval=33,700; 50,800) cases of childhood obesity; and save $22.60 in healthcare costs for every $1 spent by society in implementation costs. Calorie labeling is also projected to prevent cases of obesity across all racial and ethnic groups (range between 126 and 185 cases per 100,000 people) and all income groups (range between 152 and 186 cases per 100,000 people).

CONCLUSIONS

Calorie labeling at large fast-food chains is estimated to be a cost-saving intervention to improve long-term population health. Calorie labeling is a low-cost intervention that is already implemented across the U.S. in large chain restaurants.

Modelling health and economic impact of nutrition interventions: a systematic review

Diet related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), as well as micronutrient deficiencies, are of widespread and growing importance to public health. Authorities are developing programs to improve nutrient intakes via foods. To estimate the potential health and economic impact of these programs there is a wide variety of models. The aim of this review is to evaluate existing models to estimate the health and/or economic impact of nutrition interventions with a focus on reducing salt and sugar intake and increasing vitamin D, iron, and folate/folic acid intake. The protocol of this systematic review has been registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016050873). The final search was conducted on PubMed and Scopus electronic databases and search strings were developed for salt/sodium, sugar, vitamin D, iron, and folic acid intake. Predefined criteria related to scientific quality, applicability, and funding/interest were used to evaluate the publications. In total 122 publications were included for a critical appraisal: 45 for salt/sodium, 61 for sugar, 4 for vitamin D, 9 for folic acid, and 3 for iron. The complexity of modelling the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions is dependent on the purpose and data availability. Although most of the models have the potential to provide projections of future impact, the methodological challenges are considerable. There is a substantial need for more guidance and standardization for future modelling, to compare results of different studies and draw conclusions about the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions.

Primordial prevention: Reducing consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in racial/ethnic populations

Beyond pharmacotherapy in adulthood, primordial prevention in United States (U.S.) children and adolescents is needed to avoid the upcoming tsunami of cardiometabolic and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Healthcare disparities were unmasked by the disparate morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 in racial/ethnic populations, especially in persons with obesity, diabetes, and CVD. One potential successful strategic improvement of childhood cardiovascular health is to reduce sugar consumption in early life as CVD is the number one cause of death in patients with Type 2 diabetes (T2D). Furthermore, cardiologists treat more patients with T2D than endocrinologists. This commentary challenges cardiovascular specialists and other clinicians to address the increasing burden of cardiometabolic and CVD in adults, especially in racial/ethnic populations, by supporting primordial prevention in childhood.

Consumers Respond Positively to the Sensory, Health, and Sustainability Benefits of the Rare Sugar Allulose in Yogurt Formulations

Increased added sugar consumption is associated with type II diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and cardiovascular disease. Low and no-calorie alternative sweeteners have long been used as an aid in the reduction of added sugar. Unfortunately, these alternative sweeteners often have notable sensory deficits when compared to sucrose. Furthermore, many alternative sweeteners have synthetic origins, while consumers are increasingly turning to foods from natural origins, and from more sustainable sources. Such sweeteners include the rare sugar allulose, which can be manufactured from common agricultural waste and dairy co-product streams, and is reported to have a sensory profile similar to sucrose. This study aimed to determine the influence of the rare sugar allulose on consumer perception of sweetened vanilla yogurt. Participants were recruited to evaluate 4 vanilla yogurts sweetened with either sucrose, allulose, stevia or sucralose, and to rate their liking of the samples overall, and for flavor, texture, and their purchase intent. Statistical analysis of hedonic data from 100 consumers suggested that allulose performed similarly to sucrose in liking and purchase intent, and superior to other sweeteners tested in this study, with fewer off-flavors. Moreover, when consumers were queried on their purchase intent after learning details on the sweetener for each formulation, allulose scored significantly higher than all other formulations in purchase intent. This study highlights the potential of the rare sugar allulose as a low calorie, zero glycemic index, natural and better tasting sugar replacement in sweetened yogurt.

Simulation models of sugary drink policies: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Simulation modeling methods are an increasingly common tool for projecting the potential health effects of policies to decrease sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake. However, it remains unknown which SSB policies are understudied and how simulation modeling methods could be improved. To inform next steps, we conducted a scoping review to characterize the (1) policies considered and (2) major characteristics of SSB simulation models.

METHODS

We systematically searched 7 electronic databases in 2020, updated in 2021. Two investigators independently screened articles to identify peer-reviewed research using simulation modeling to project the impact of SSB policies on health outcomes. One investigator extracted information about policies considered and key characteristics of models from the full text of included articles. Data were analyzed in 2021-22.

RESULTS

Sixty-one articles were included. Of these, 50 simulated at least one tax policy, most often an ad valorem tax (e.g., 20% tax, n = 25) or volumetric tax (e.g., 1 cent-per-fluid-ounce tax, n = 23). Non-tax policies examined included bans on SSB purchases (n = 5), mandatory reformulation (n = 3), warning labels (n = 2), and portion size policies (n = 2). Policies were typically modeled in populations accounting for age and gender or sex attributes. Most studies focused on weight-related outcomes (n = 54), used cohort, lifetable, or microsimulation modeling methods (n = 34), conducted sensitivity or uncertainty analyses (n = 56), and included supplementary materials (n = 54). Few studies included stakeholders at any point in their process (n = 9) or provided replication code/data (n = 8).

DISCUSSION

Most simulation modeling of SSB policies has focused on tax policies and has been limited in its exploration of heterogenous impacts across population groups. Future research would benefit from refined policy and implementation scenario specifications, thorough assessments of the equity impacts of policies using established methods, and standardized reporting to improve transparency and consistency.

Impact of front-of-pack labels on the perceived healthfulness of a sweetened fruit drink: a randomised experiment in five countries

OBJECTIVE

Front-of-pack (FOP) nutrition labelling is a globally recommended strategy to encourage healthier food choices. We evaluated the effect of FOP labels on the perceived healthfulness of a sweetened fruit drink in an international sample of adult consumers.

DESIGN

Six-arm randomised controlled experiment to examine the impact of FOP labels (no label control, Guideline Daily Amounts (GDA), Multiple Traffic Lights, the Health Star Ratings (HSR), Health Warning Labels, and 'High-in' Warning Labels (HIWL)) on the perceived healthfulness of the drink. Linear regression models by country examined healthfulness perceptions on FOP nutrition labels, testing for interactions by demographic characteristics.

SETTING

Online survey in 2018 among participants from Australia, Canada, Mexico, United Kingdom (UK) and United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults (≥18 years, n 22 140).

RESULTS

Compared with control, HIWL had the greatest impact in lowering perceived healthfulness (β from -0·62 to -1·71) across all countries. The HIWL and the HSR had a similar effect in Australia. Other labels were effective in decreasing the perceived healthfulness of the drink within some countries only, but to a lower extent. The GDA did not reduce perceived healthfulness in most countries. In the UK, the effect of HIWL differed by age group, with greater impact among older participants (> 40 years). There were no other variations across key demographic characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

HIWL, which communicates clear, non-quantitative messages about high levels of nutrients of concern, demonstrated the greatest efficacy to decrease the perceived healthfulness of a sweetened fruit drink across countries. This effect was similar across demographic characteristics.

Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Pricing Policies: Simulation of Minimum Price Laws and Taxes in New York City

INTRODUCTION

Minimum price laws, which set a price below which a product cannot be sold, are a promising but understudied strategy for reducing the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. New York City has implemented a minimum price law for tobacco products and could consider this policy for sugar-sweetened beverages. This study projects the impacts of a sugar-sweetened beverage minimum price law among New York City adults, with effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax examined for comparison.

METHODS

In 2020-2021, a microsimulation model of dietary behaviors and body weight was developed using population-based survey data, research on responsiveness to and avoidance of price increases, and a validated weight change model. Analyses applied the model to simulate the impacts of implementing a minimum price law (8 or 10 cents/ounce price floors) or an excise tax (1 or 2 cents/ounce tax rates) on diet and body weight among New York City adults for more than 5 years. Sensitivity analyses varied assumptions about price responsiveness, caloric compensation, and avoidance.

RESULTS

A sugar-sweetened beverage minimum price law with an 8 cents/ounce floor would reduce average sugar-sweetened beverage intake by 16.5 calories/day (95% uncertainty interval= -17.2, -15.8) and obesity prevalence by 0.86 percentage points (95% uncertainty interval= -1.03, -0.69). Benefits were similar for a minimum price law with a 10 cents/ounce floor and for 1 and 2 cents/ounce taxes (range of obesity reductions: -0.84 to -1.24 percentage points). Benefits persisted in sensitivity analyses and were larger for Black and Hispanic than for White and Asian adults and for adults with lower than for those with higher income.

CONCLUSIONS

Excise taxes and minimum price laws for sugar-sweetened beverages could both reduce New York City adults' sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and obesity prevalence and narrow sociodemographic disparities in obesity.

Influence of the San Francisco, CA, Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Health Warning on Consumer Reactions: Implications for Equity from a Randomized Experiment

BACKGROUND

In 2020, San Francisco, CA, amended an ordinance requiring warning labels on advertisements for sugary drinks to update the warning message. No studies have evaluated consumer responses to the revised message.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate responses to the 2020 San Francisco sugary drink warning label and to assess whether these responses differ by demographic characteristics.

DESIGN

Randomized experiment.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

During 2020, a convenience sample of US parents of children aged 6 months to 5 years (N = 2,160 included in primary analyses) was recruited via an online panel to complete a survey. Oversampling was used to achieve a diverse sample (49% Hispanic/Latino[a], 34% non-Hispanic Black, and 9% non-Hispanic White).

METHODS

Participants were randomly assigned to view a control label ("Always read the Nutrition Facts Panel") or the 2020 San Francisco sugary drink warning label ("SAN FRANCISCO GOVERNMENT WARNING: Drinking beverages with added sugar(s) can cause weight gain, which increases the risk of obesity and type 2 diabetes."). Messages were shown in white text on black rectangular labels.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Participants rated the labels on thinking about health harms of sugary drink consumption (primary outcome) and perceived discouragement from wanting to consume sugary drinks. The survey was available in English and Spanish.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED

Ordinary least squares regression.

RESULTS

The San Francisco warning label elicited more thinking about health harms (Cohen's d = 0.24; P < 0.001) than the control label. The San Francisco warning label also led to more discouragement from wanting to consume sugary drinks than the control label (d = 0.31; P < 0.001). The warning label's influence on thinking about harms did not differ by any participant characteristics, including age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, income, or language of survey administration (all P values for interactions > 0.12).

CONCLUSIONS

San Francisco's 2020 sugary drink warning label may be a promising policy for informing consumers and encouraging healthier beverage choices across groups with diverse demographic characteristics.

The impact of pictorial health warnings on purchases of sugary drinks for children: A randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Pictorial warnings on tobacco products are promising for motivating behavior change, but few studies have examined pictorial warnings for sugary drinks, especially in naturalistic environments. This study aimed to examine the impact of pictorial warnings on parents' purchases of sugary drinks for their children in a naturalistic store laboratory.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Parents of children ages 2 to 12 (n = 325, 25% identifying as Black, 20% Hispanic) completed a shopping task in a naturalistic store laboratory in North Carolina. Participants were randomly assigned to a pictorial warnings arm (sugary drinks displayed pictorial health warnings about type 2 diabetes and heart damage) or a control arm (sugary drinks displayed a barcode label). Parents selected 1 beverage and 1 snack for their child, as well as 1 household good; one of these items was selected for them to purchase and take home. The primary outcome was whether parents purchased a sugary drink for their child. Secondary outcomes included reactions to the trial labels, attitudes toward sugary drinks, and intentions to serve their child sugary drinks. Pictorial warnings led to a 17-percentage point reduction in purchases of sugary drinks (95% CI for reduction: 7% to 27%), with 45% of parents in the control arm buying a sugary drink for their child compared to 28% in the pictorial warning arm (p = 0.002). The impact of pictorial warnings on purchases did not differ by any of the 13 participant characteristics examined (e.g., race/ethnicity, income, education, and age of child). Pictorial warnings also led to lower calories (kcal), purchased from sugary drinks (82 kcal in the control arm versus 52 kcal in the pictorial warnings arm, p = 0.003). Moreover, pictorial warnings led to lower intentions to serve sugary drinks to their child, feeling more in control of healthy eating decisions, greater thinking about the harms of sugary drinks, stronger negative emotional reactions, greater anticipated social interactions, lower perceived healthfulness of sugary drinks for their child, and greater injunctive norms to limit sugary drinks for their child (all p < 0.05). There was no evidence of difference between trial arms on noticing of the labels, appeal of sugary drinks, perceived amount of added sugar in sugary drinks, risk perceptions, or perceived tastiness of sugary drinks (all p > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Pictorial warnings reduced parents' purchases of sugary drinks for their children in this naturalistic trial. Warnings on sugary drinks are a promising policy approach to reduce sugary drink purchasing in the US.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial design, measures, power calculation, and analytic plan were registered before data collection at www.clinicaltrials.gov NCT04223687.

Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Reduction Policies: Progress and Promise

Evidence showing the effectiveness of policies to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is growing. SSBs are one of the largest sources of added sugar in the diet and are linked to multiple adverse health conditions. This review presents a framework illustrating the various types of policies that have been used to reduce SSB exposure and consumption; policies are organized into four categories (financial, information, defaults, and availability) and take into consideration crosscutting policy considerations (feasibility, impact, and equity). Next, for each category, we describe a specific example and provide evidence of impact. Finally, we discuss crosscutting policy considerations, the challenge of choosing among the various policy options, and important areas for future research. Notably, no single policy will reduce SSB consumption to healthy levels, so an integrated policy approach that adapts to changing market and consumption trends; evolving social, political, and public health needs; and emerging science is critical.

Applications of Complex Systems Models to Improve Retail Food Environments for Population Health: A Scoping Review

Retail food environments (RFEs) are complex systems with important implications for population health. Studying the complexity within RFEs comes with challenges. Complex systems models are computational tools that can help. We performed a systematic scoping review of studies that used complex systems models to study RFEs for population health. We examined the purpose for using the model, RFE features represented, extent to which the complex systems approach was maximized, and quality and transparency of methods employed. The PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) guidelines were followed. Studies using agent-based modeling, system dynamics, discrete event simulations, networks, hybrid, or microsimulation models were identified from 7 multidisciplinary databases. Fifty-six studies met the inclusion criteria, including 23 microsimulation, 13 agent-based, 10 hybrid, 4 system dynamics, 4 network, and 2 discrete event simulation models. Most studies (n = 45) used models for experimental purposes and evaluated effects of simulated RFE policies and interventions. RFE characteristics simulated in models were diverse, and included the features (e.g., prices) customers encounter when shopping (n = 55), the settings (e.g., restaurants, supermarkets) where customers purchase food and beverages (n = 30), and the actors (e.g., store managers, suppliers) who make decisions that influence RFEs (n = 25). All models incorporated characteristics of complexity (e.g., feedbacks, conceptual representation of multiple levels), but these were captured to varying degrees across model types. The quality of methods was adequate overall; however, few studies engaged stakeholders (n = 10) or provided sufficient transparency to verify the model (n = 12). Complex systems models are increasingly utilized to study RFEs and their contributions to public health. Opportunities to advance the use of these approaches remain, and areas to improve future research are discussed. This comprehensive review provides the first marker of the utility of leveraging these approaches to address RFEs for population health.

Consumption of Ultra-Processed Foods in Brazilian Children: An Analysis of Regional Trends

PURPOSE

Childhood obesity has become a concern for the Brazilian Unified Health System, which has recently started to investigate children's eating habits in basic health units. This study examined the trends and ultra-processed foods (UPF) consumption in Brazilian children.

DESIGN AND METHODS

This repeated cross-sectional study included 492,630 children (2-9 years old), from different Brazilian regions, in the years 2015 and 2019. The children's food consumption was assessed by nurses using a nationally standardized instrument. Information was provided by the Food and Nutrition Surveillance System Brazilian.

RESULTS

The UPF consumption in Brazilian children is generally high and was higher among children in the South and Midwest regions. The consumption of sweetened beverages was more prevalent among all the UPF assessed and continues to increase among children in the Northeast region. Declining trends in UPF consumption were observed in children from all regions, except for the Northeast region, whose trends increased in almost all evaluated foods.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Nurses, especially, have a primary role in guiding the reduction of UPF consumption, as they are the first health professionals to have access to this information. Increasing trends in UPF consumption can be mitigated by the inclusion of nutritionists in basic health units. Brazilian children need to be assisted by public policies that promote food education.

Microsimulation Modelling in Food Policy: A Scoping Review of Methodological Aspects

Food policies for the prevention and management of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have been increasingly relying on microsimulation models (MSMs) to assess effectiveness. Given the increased uptake of MSMs, this review aims to provide an overview of the characteristics of MSMs that link diets with NCDs. A comprehensive review was conducted in PubMed and Web of Knowledge. Inclusion criteria were: (i) findings from a MSM, (ii) diets, foods or nutrients as main exposure of interest, (iii) NCDs, such as overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke or cancer as disease outcome for impact assessment. This review included information from 33 studies using MSM in analyzing diet and diverse food policies on NCDs. Hereby, most models employed stochastic, discrete-time, dynamic microsimulation techniques to calculate anticipated (cost-)effectiveness of strategies based on food pricing, food reformulation or dietary (lifestyle) interventions. Currently available models differ in the methodology used for quantifying the effect of the dietary changes on disease, and in the method for modelling disease incidence and mortality. However, all studies provided evidence that the models were sufficiently capturing the close-to-reality situation by justifying their choice of model parameters and validating externally their modelled disease incidence and mortality with observed or predicted event data. With the increasing use of various MSMs, between-model comparisons, facilitated by open access models and good reporting practices, would be important for judging model's accuracy, leading to continued improvement in the methodologies for developing and applying MSMs, and subsequently a better understanding of the results by policymakers.

A STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE

Given the advancement in the application of microsimulation modelling in evaluating food policies and measuring diet-related disease burdens, the present scoping review serves as an exercise to inform future modelling, hereby highlighting the need for transparency in model development, application and dissemination to advance and safeguard accuracy and relevance in modelling efforts.

Projecting the Influence of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Warning Labels and Restaurant Menu Labeling Regulations on Energy Intake, Weight Status, and Health Care Expenditures in US Adults: A Microsimulation

BACKGROUND

Accurate, readily accessible, and easy-to-understand nutrition labeling is a promising policy strategy to address poor diet quality and prevent obesity.

OBJECTIVE

This study projected the influence of nationwide implementation of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) warning labels and restaurant menu labeling regulations.

DESIGN

A stochastic microsimulation model was built to estimate the influences of SSB warning labels and menu labeling regulations on daily energy intake, body weight, body mass index, and health care expenditures among US adults.

PARTICIPANTS/SETTING

The model used individual-level data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, and other validated sources.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED

The model was simulated using the bootstrapped samples, and the means and associated 95% CIs of the policy effects were estimated.

RESULTS

SSB warning labels and restaurant menu labeling regulations were estimated to reduce daily energy intake by 19.13 kcal (95% CI 18.83 to 19.43 kcal) and 33.09 kcal (95% CI 32.39 to 33.80 kcal), body weight by 0.92 kg (95% CI 0.90 to 0.93 kg) and 1.57 kg (95% CI 1.54 to 1.60 kg), body mass index by 0.32 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.33) and 0.55 (95% CI =0.54 to 0.56), and per-capita health care expenditures by $26.97 (95% CI $26.56 to $27.38) and $45.47 (95% CI $44.54 to $46.40) over 10 years, respectively. The reduced per-capita health care expenditures translated into an annual total medical cost saving of $0.69 billion for SSB warning labels and $1.16 billion for menu labeling regulations. No discernable policy effect on all-cause mortality was identified. The policy effects could be heterogeneous across population subgroups, with larger effects in men, non-Hispanic Black adults, and younger adults.

CONCLUSIONS

SSB warning labels and menu labeling regulations could be effective policy leverage to prevent weight gains and reduce medical expenses attributable to adiposity.

Calorie Labeling and Product Reformulation: A Longitudinal Analysis of Supermarket-Prepared Foods

INTRODUCTION

The 2010 Affordable Care Act required chain retail food establishments, including supermarkets, to post calorie information for prepared (i.e., ready to eat) foods. Implementation of calorie labeling could spur companies to reduce the calorie content of prepared foods, but few studies have explored this. This study evaluates the changes in the calorie content of prepared foods at 2 large U.S. supermarket chains after they implemented calorie labels in April 2017.

METHODS

The chains (≈1,200 stores) provided data on the calorie content and labeling status of all items sold between July 2015 and January 2019. In 2021, analyses used a difference-in-differences approach to examine the changes in the calorie content of prepared bakery, entree, and deli items introduced before calorie labeling to those introduced after the labeling compared with changes in similar foods not subject to the new labeling requirement. Primary analyses examined continuously available items; exploratory analyses examined items newly introduced to the marketplace.

RESULTS

Relative to changes in comparison foods not subject to the labeling requirement, continuously available prepared bakery items decreased by 7.7 calories per item after calorie labels were implemented (95% CI= -12.9, -2.5, p=0.004, ≈0.5% reduction). In exploratory analyses, prepared bakery items introduced after calorie labeling contained 440 fewer calories per item than those introduced before calorie labeling (95% CI= -773.9, -106.1, p=0.01, ≈27% reduction), driven by reductions in product size. No changes were observed in the calorie content of continuously available or newly introduced prepared entrees or deli items.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing calorie labels could encourage product reformulation among some types of prepared supermarket foods. These supply-side changes could lead to reductions in caloric intake.

The Influence of Front-of-Package Nutrition Labeling on Consumer Behavior and Product Reformulation

Countries worldwide have implemented mandatory or voluntary front-of-package nutrition labeling systems. We provide a narrative review of (a) real-world evaluations of front-of-package nutrition labels that analyze objective sales data and (b) studies that objectively assess product reformulation in response to a front-of-package nutrition label implementation. We argue that there is sufficient scientific evidence to recommend that governments implement mandatory front-of-package nutrition labeling systems to improve population health. We also present a conceptual framework to describe front-of-package label influence and provide recommendations for the optimal label design, emphasizing that labeling systems should be highly visible and salient, be simple and easy to understand, leverage automatic associations, and integrate informational and emotional messaging. The existing research suggests that Guideline Daily Amount labels should be avoided and that the Health Star Rating and Nutri-Score systems are promising but that systems with warning labels like the one in Chile are likely to produce the largest public health benefits. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Nutrition, Volume 41 is September 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Designing warnings for sugary drinks: A randomized experiment with Latino parents and non-Latino parents

Sugary drink warnings are a promising policy for reducing sugary drink consumption, but it remains unknown how to design warnings to maximize their impact overall and among diverse population groups, including parents of Latino ethnicity and parents with low English use. In 2019, we randomized US parents of children ages 2-12 (n = 1078, 48% Latino ethnicity, 13% low English use) to one topic (one of four warnings, or a neutral control), which they viewed on three designs (text-only, icon, and graphic) to assess reactions to the various warnings on sugary drinks. All warning topics were perceived as more effective than the control (average differential effect [ADE] ranged from 1.77 to 1.84 [5-point Likert scale], all p < .001). All warning topics also led to greater thinking about harms of sugary drinks (all p < .001) and lower purchase intentions (all p < .01). Compared to text-only warnings, icon (ADE = 0.18) and graphic warnings (ADE = 0.30) elicited higher perceived message effectiveness, as well as greater thinking about the harms of sugary drinks, lower perceived healthfulness, and lower purchase intentions (all p < .001). The impact of icon warnings (vs. text warnings) was stronger for parents with low English use, compared to those with high English use (p = .024). Similarly, the impact of icon (vs. text warnings) was stronger for Latino parents than non-Latino parents (p = .034). This experimental study indicates that many warning topics hold promise for behavior change and that including images with warnings could increase warning efficacy, particularly among Latino parents and parents with low English use. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT04382599.

Awareness of and reactions to the health harms of sugary drinks: An online study of U.S. parents

Evidence about the health problems associated with sugary drink consumption is well-established. However, little is known about which sugary drink health harms are most effective at changing consumers' behavior. We aimed to identify which harms people were aware of and most discouraged them from wanting to buy sugary drinks. Participants were a national convenience sample of diverse parents (n = 1,058), oversampled for Latino parents (48%). Participants rated a list of sugary drink-related health harms occurring in children (7 harms) and in adults (15 harms). Outcomes were awareness of each harm and how much each harm discouraged parents from wanting to purchase sugary drinks. Most participants were aware that sugary drinks contribute to tooth decay in children (75%) and weight gain in both children (73%) and adults (69%). Few participants were aware that sugary drinks contribute to adult infertility (16%), arthritis (18%), and gout (18%). All health harms were rated highly in terms of discouraging parents from wanting to buy sugary drinks (range: 3.59-4.11 on a 1-5 scale), with obesity, pre-diabetes, and tooth decay eliciting the highest discouragement ratings. Harm-induced discouragement was higher for participants who were aware of more health harms (B = 0.05, p < 0.0001), identified as female (B = 0.15 compared to male, p = 0.02), or had an annual household income of $50,000 or more (B = 0.16 compared to less than $50,000, p = 0.03). These findings suggest health messages focused on a variety of health harms could raise awareness and discourage sugary drink purchases.

General and specific graphic health warning labels reduce willingness to consume sugar-sweetened beverages

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is associated with obesity and other severe negative health consequences. The present study examined the effectiveness of two types of health warning labels (HWLs) in modulating dietary choices for SSBs: specific HWLs, presenting health consequences associated with consuming SSBs, and general HWLs, presenting health consequences of an unhealthy diet and obesity. While electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded, 63 participants completed a computer-based task in which they were first randomly allocated to view either SBB-specific, general, or non-warning control HWLs. They then viewed images of a range of SSB products, varying on perceived healthiness and tastiness, and rated their willingness to consume (WTC) each one. Linear mixed-effect model analyses revealed that general and specific HWLs both decreased WTC SSBs perceived as tasty, compared to the control condition. For general HWLs, this effect was reduced for SSBs perceived to be healthy, suggesting that specific HWLs may be more effective at reducing SSB consumption. The EEG data showed that SSBs considered unhealthy elicited greater N1 amplitudes, and tasty SSBs elicited greater late positive potential (LPP) amplitudes, possibly reflecting attentional allocation and craving responses, respectively. However, no strong differences between HWL types were found. Taken together, the results suggest that graphic HWLs, both general and specific, have the potential to reduce SSB consumption, but they do not strongly modulate craving-related neural responses to SSBs.

Association of Total Dietary Intake of Sugars with Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) Concentrations: Evidence from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2003-2010

BACKGROUND

There is increasing evidence that dietary intake of sugars may be a risk factor for prostate cancer (PCa) and elevate the concentration of serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA). However, there is limited evidence of the correlation between total dietary intake of sugars and serum PSA concentrations for adult American males. Herein, we evaluated the association between total dietary intake of sugars and serum PSA concentrations in men without a malignant tumor diagnosis in the United States (US) National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database. Material and Methods. In this secondary data analysis, a total of 6,403 men aged ≥40 years and without malignant tumor history were included from 2003 to 2010. The independent variable of this study was the total dietary intake of sugars, and the dependent variable was serum PSA concentrations. Covariates included dietary, comorbidity, physical examination, and demographic data.

RESULTS

The average age of participants included in this study was 58.1 years (±13.6). After adjusting for the dietary, comorbidity, physical examination, and demographic data, we observed that a dietary intake increase of one gram of total dietary intake of sugars was associated with an increase of serum PSA concentrations by 0.003 ng/mL (after log2 transformed, 95% CI: 0.001 to 0.005) with a P value for trend less than 0.05. Sensitivity analysis using the generalized additive model (GAM) supported the linear association between total dietary intake of sugars and serum PSA concentrations.

CONCLUSION

The total dietary intake of sugars is independently and positively associated with serum PSA concentrations in adult American males who are without a personal history of malignant tumors.

Evaluation of public knowledge and beliefs of adverse health effects of unhealthy food and knowledge and beliefs based inequalities among various socio-demographic groups in Lithuania

OBJECTIVES

The availability of information on healthy products does not ensure the empowerment of people with the knowledge on how to choose or avoid food products or dishes depending on unhealthy factors. Public knowledge and beliefs of unhealthy food effects on health needs to be evaluated so that appropriate measures can be taken to properly inform people and relevant socio-demographic groups.

METHODS

The original survey questionnaire containing questions about specific food groups and various health effects was compiled. A total of 1,007 respondents, Lithuanian residents aged 18-75 years, were surveyed in March 2019. Multilevel stratified probability sampling method was used for data representativeness.

RESULTS

Almost half of respondents (46.2%) knew that deep-fried food could cause cancer. The majority of respondents (68.4%) were aware that sugar causes obesity and 61.7% were aware that sugar increases the risk of diabetes mellitus; 41.6% (more often those living in non-rural areas) know that grilled meat may cause cancer. More than half of respondents (57.2%) (more likely those living in non-rural areas and those with a university degree) were aware that smoked meat products may cause cancer. Only 46.4% were aware of the fact that salt raises blood pressure and the risk of cardiovascular diseases.

CONCLUSION

Only about half of Lithuanian residents aged 18-75 were aware of the scientifically proven harmful effects of unhealthy food groups. Socio-demographic factors influence the knowledge and beliefs of the population.

Warning Labels Reduce Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Intake among College Students

BACKGROUND

Health-related warning labels may reduce the intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), but the effectiveness of such labels in real-world settings is not well established.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the influence of warning labels on SSB intake among college students at a large public Midwestern university.

METHODS

We conducted a quasi-experimental intervention study among 840 undergraduate students recruited from 3 dining halls on 1 university campus. One dining hall was selected as the intervention (I) site, whereas the other dining halls served as control (C) sites. In January 2019, warning labels were posted on SSB dispensers at the I site. All students reported their beverage intake using a modified beverage frequency questionnaire 2 mo before and 2 mo after the warning label implementation. Generalized linear models examined the influence of the warning labels on SSB consumption at the I site compared with the C sites, adjusting for students' sociodemographic characteristics.

RESULTS

In the sample, 68% were aged 17-18 y old at baseline, and 51% identified as female. From baseline to follow-up, there was a 19% decrease in SSB intake at the I site, compared with a 5% decrease at the C sites (P = 0.049 comparing I with C). This difference was driven by significant decreases in the intakes of fruit-flavored drinks, sweetened teas, and flavored milk at the I site compared with the C sites. Although not an SSB, 100% fruit juce consumption decreased 21% at the I site, compared with a 1% increase at the C sites (P = 0.01 comparing I with C). No significant differences were observed in the intakes of soda, energy drinks, sweetened coffees, and nonsugary drinks at the I site compared with the C sites.

CONCLUSIONS

Warning labels were effective in reducing SSB intake among college students, particularly for fruit-flavored drinks, sweetened teas, and flavored milk.This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT04435145.

Trends in Beverage Consumption and Related Demographic Factors and Obesity among Korean Children and Adolescents

It is well known that reducing consumption of sugar is a global public health priority. Beverages were the primary source of total sugar intake from processed foods. However, there are few studies investigating the trend of beverage consumption among children and adolescents in Korea. We examined the overall trend in beverage consumption among 11,996 participants aged 10-18 years who were enrolled in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) (1998-2018). Further, we examined the effect of beverage types on beverage consumption-related demographic factors and obesity among 6121 participants using the recent 24 h dietary recall data (2010-2018) that captured the consumption of fruit and vegetable juices, soft drinks, milk and milk-based products and alcoholic beverages. Demographic characteristics, including sex, age, body mass index, household income level and residential area, were considered. Consumers' overall beverage intake and the percentage of energy derived from fruit and vegetable juices and soft drinks steadily increased from 1998 to 2016-2018 (p-trend < 0.0001); in contrast, dairy product consumption declined since 2010-2012. The main sources of beverage-based calories were fruit and vegetable juices (107.5 kcal/day), soft drinks (145.2 kcal/day), dairy products (181.8 kcal/day) and alcoholic beverages (103.5 kcal/day). Also, Korean adolescents aged 16-18 years consumed more soft drinks, fewer dairy products and higher alcoholic drinks than other age groups; particularly, boys consumed more energy from beverages (p < 0.0001). The odds ratios of obesity prevalence tended to be higher for soft drink consumption than for other beverages but this was not significant. The consumption of fruit and vegetable juices and milk and milk products showed a marginal association with a reduced risk of obesity prevalence. Since beverage consumption has increased steadily among Korean children and adolescents, appropriate interventions are needed. In the future, data from a larger sample of Korean children and adolescents are necessary to identify significant differences and longitudinal studies are necessary to examine the causalities.

Predicting obesity reduction after implementing warning labels in Mexico: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

In October 2019, Mexico approved a law to establish that nonalcoholic beverages and packaged foods that exceed a threshold for added calories, sugars, fats, trans fat, or sodium should have an "excess of" warning label. We aimed to estimate the expected reduction in the obesity prevalence and obesity costs in Mexico by introducing warning labels, over 5 years, among adults under 60 years of age.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Baseline intakes of beverages and snacks were obtained from the 2016 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey. The expected impact of labels on caloric intake was obtained from an experimental study, with a 10.5% caloric reduction for beverages and 3.0% caloric reduction for snacks. The caloric reduction was introduced into a dynamic model to estimate weight change. The model output was then used to estimate the expected changes in the prevalence of obesity and overweight. To predict obesity costs, we used the Health Ministry report of the impact of overweight and obesity in Mexico 1999-2023. We estimated a mean caloric reduction of 36.8 kcal/day/person (23.2 kcal/day from beverages and 13.6 kcal/day from snacks). Five years after implementation, this caloric reduction could reduce 1.68 kg and 4.98 percentage points (pp) in obesity (14.7%, with respect to baseline), which translates into a reduction of 1.3 million cases of obesity and a reduction of US$1.8 billion in direct and indirect costs. Our estimate is based on experimental evidence derived from warning labels as proposed in Canada, which include a single label and less restrictive limits to sugar, sodium, and saturated fats. Our estimates depend on various assumptions, such as the transportability of effect estimates from the experimental study to the Mexican population and that other factors that could influence weight and food and beverage consumption remain unchanged. Our results will need to be corroborated by future observational studies through the analysis of changes in sales, consumption, and body weight.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we estimated that warning labels may effectively reduce obesity and obesity-related costs. Mexico is following Chile, Peru, and Uruguay in implementing warning labels to processed foods, but other countries could benefit from this intervention.

Ethical Considerations for Food and Beverage Warnings

Several countries have implemented warnings on unhealthy foods and beverages, with similar policies under consideration in the U.S. and around the world. Research demonstrating food warnings' effectiveness is emerging, but limited scholarship has evaluated the ethics of food warning policies. Using a public health ethics framework for evaluating obesity prevention policies, we assessed the ethical strengths and weaknesses of food warnings along multiple dimensions: 1) Health behaviors and physical health, 2) Psychosocial well-being, 3) Social and cultural values, 4) Informed choice, 5) Equality, 6) Attributions of responsibility, 7) Liberty, and 8) Privacy. Our analysis identifies both ethical strengths and weaknesses of food warnings, including that: 1) warnings are likely to generate important benefits including increased consumer understanding and informed choice, healthier purchases, and potential reductions in obesity prevalence; 2) warnings evoke negative emotional reactions, but these reactions are an important mechanism through which food warnings encourage healthier behaviors and promote informed choice; 3) warnings appear unlikely to have ethically unacceptable effects on social and cultural values, attributions of responsibility, liberty, or privacy. Current research suggests we continue to pursue food warnings as a policy option for improving public health while simultaneously conducting additional research on the ethics of these policies. Future research is especially needed to clarify warnings' effects on stigma and to characterize the balance and distribution of costs of and benefits from implementing warning policies.

Sugary drink warnings: A meta-analysis of experimental studies

BACKGROUND

Policymakers worldwide are considering requiring warnings for sugary drinks. A growing number of experimental studies have examined sugary drink warnings' impacts, but no research to our knowledge has synthesized this literature. To inform ongoing policy debates, this study aimed to identify the effects of sugary drink warnings compared with control conditions.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We systematically searched 7 databases on June 21, 2019, and October 25, 2019. We also searched reference lists of relevant articles. Two investigators independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts to identify peer-reviewed articles that used an experimental protocol to examine the effects of sugary drink warnings compared to a control condition. Two investigators independently extracted study characteristics and effect sizes from all relevant full-text articles. We meta-analyzed any outcome assessed in at least 2 studies, combining effect sizes using random effects meta-analytic procedures. Twenty-three experiments with data on 16,241 individuals (mean proportion female, 58%) were included in the meta-analysis. Most studies took place in Latin America (35%) or the US or Canada (46%); 32% included children. Relative to control conditions, sugary drink warnings caused stronger negative emotional reactions (d = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.25, 1.13; p = 0.002) and elicited more thinking about the health effects of sugary drinks (d = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.29, 1.01; p < 0.001). Sugary drink warnings also led to lower healthfulness perceptions (d = -0.22; 95% CI: -0.27, -0.17; p < 0.001) and stronger disease likelihood perceptions (d = 0.15; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.24; p = 0.001). Moreover, sugary drink warnings reduced both hypothetical (d = -0.32; 95% CI: -0.44, -0.21; p < 0.001) and actual consumption and purchasing behavior (d = -0.17; 95% CI: -0.30, -0.04; p = 0.012). Statistically significant effects were not observed for perceptions of added sugar or positive sugary drink attitudes (p's > 0.10). Moderation analyses revealed that health warnings (e.g., "Beverages with added sugar contribute to obesity") led to greater reductions in hypothetical sugary drink purchases than did nutrient warnings (e.g., "High in sugar"; d = -0.35 versus -0.18; Qb = 4.04; p = 0.04). Limitations of this study include that we did not review grey literature and that we were unable to conduct moderation analyses for several prespecified moderators due to an insufficient number of studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This international body of experimental literature supports sugary drink warnings as a population-level strategy for changing behavior, as well as emotions, perceptions, and intentions.

PROTOCOL REGISTRY

PROSPERO ID 146405.