Towards an understanding of the link between environmental emissions and human body burdens of PCBs using CoZMoMAN

Accessible methods and tools to estimate chemical exposure in humans to support risk assessment: A systematic scoping review

Exposure assessment is a crucial component of environmental health research, providing essential information on the potential risks associated with various chemicals. A systematic scoping review was conducted to acquire an overview of accessible human exposure assessment methods and computational tools to support and ultimately improve risk assessment. The systematic scoping review was performed in Sysrev, a web platform that introduces machine learning techniques into the review process aiming for increased accuracy and efficiency. Included publications were restricted to a publication date after the year 2000, where exposure methods were properly described. Exposure assessments methods were found to be used for a broad range of environmental chemicals including pesticides, metals, persistent chemicals, volatile organic compounds, and other chemical classes. Our results show that after the year 2000, for all the types of exposure routes, probabilistic analysis, and computational methods to calculate human exposure have increased. Sixty-three mathematical models and toolboxes were identified that have been developed in Europe, North America, and globally. However, only twelve occur frequently and their usefulness were associated with exposure route, chemical classes and input parameters used to estimate exposure. The outcome of the combined associations can function as a basis and/or guide for decision making for the selection of most appropriate method and tool to be used for environmental chemical human exposure assessments in Ontology-driven and artificial intelligence-based repeated dose toxicity testing of chemicals for next generation risk assessment (ONTOX) project and elsewhere. Finally, the choice of input parameters used in each mathematical model and toolbox shown by our analysis can contribute to the harmonization process of the exposure models and tools increasing the prospect for comparison between studies and consistency in the regulatory process in the future.

Modelling PCB-153 in northern ecosystems across time, space, and species using the nested exposure model

There is concern over possible effects on ecosystems and humans from exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and chemicals with similar properties. The main objective of this study was to develop, evaluate, and apply the Nested Exposure Model (NEM) designed to simulate the link between global emissions and resulting ecosystem exposure while accounting for variation in time and space. NEM, using environmental and biological data, global emissions, and physicochemical properties as input, was used to estimate PCB-153 concentrations in seawater and biota of the Norwegian marine environment from 1930 to 2020. These concentrations were compared to measured concentrations in (i) seawater, (ii) an Arctic marine food web comprising zooplankton, fish and marine mammals, and (iii) Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from large baseline studies and monitoring programs. NEM reproduced PCB-153 concentrations in seawater, the Arctic food web, and Norwegian fish within a factor of 0.1-31, 0.14-3.1, and 0.09-21, respectively. The model also successfully reproduced measured trophic magnification factors for PCB-153 at Svalbard as well as geographical variations in PCB-153 burden in Atlantic cod between the Skagerrak, North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and Barents Sea, but estimated a steeper decline in PCB-153 concentration in herring and cod during the last decades than observed. Using the evaluated model with various emission scenarios showed the important contribution of European and global primary emissions for the PCB-153 load in fish from Norwegian marine offshore areas.

The influence of global climate change on accumulation and toxicity of persistent organic pollutants and chemicals of emerging concern in Arctic food webs

This review summarizes current understanding of how climate change-driven physical and ecological processes influence the levels of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and contaminants of emerging Arctic concern (CEACs) in Arctic biota and food webs. The review also highlights how climate change may interact with other stressors to impact contaminant toxicity, and the utility of modeling and newer research tools in closing knowledge gaps on climate change-contaminant interactions. Permafrost thaw is influencing the concentrations of POPs in freshwater ecosystems. Physical climate parameters, including climate oscillation indices, precipitation, water salinity, sea ice age, and sea ice quality show statistical associations with POPs concentrations in multiple Arctic biota. Northward range-shifting species can act as biovectors for POPs and CEACs into Arctic marine food webs. Shifts in trophic position can alter POPs concentrations in populations of Arctic species. Reductions in body condition are associated with increases in levels of POPs in some biota. Although collectively understudied, multiple stressors, including contaminants and climate change, may act to cumulatively impact some populations of Arctic biota. Models are useful for predicting the net result of various contrasting climate-driven processes on POP and CEAC exposures; however, for some parameters, especially food web changes, insufficient data exists with which to populate such models. In addition to the impact of global regulations on POP levels in Arctic biota, this review demonstrates that there are various direct and indirect mechanisms by which climate change can influence contaminant exposure, accumulation, and effects; therefore, it is important to attribute POP variations to the actual contributing factors to inform future regulations and policies. To do so, a broad range of habitats, species, and processes must be considered for a thorough understanding and interpretation of the consequences to the distribution, accumulation, and effects of environmental contaminants. Given the complex interactions between climate change, contaminants, and ecosystems, it is important to plan for long-term, integrated pan-Arctic monitoring of key biota and ecosystems, and to collect ancillary data, including information on climate-related parameters, local meteorology, ecology, and physiology, and when possible, behavior, when carrying out research on POPs and CEACs in biota and food webs of the Arctic.

Introducing a nested multimedia fate and transport model for organic contaminants (NEM)

Some organic contaminants, including the persistent organic pollutants (POPs), have achieved global distribution through long range atmospheric transport (LRAT). Regulatory efforts, monitoring programs and modelling studies address the LRAT of POPs on national, continental (e.g. Europe) and/or global scales. Whereas national and continental-scale models require estimates of the input of globally dispersed chemicals from outside of the model domain, existing global-scale models either have relatively coarse spatial resolution or are so computationally demanding that it limits their usefulness. Here we introduce the Nested Exposure Model (NEM), which is a multimedia fate and transport model that is global in scale yet can achieve high spatial resolution of a user-defined target region without huge computational demands. Evaluating NEM by comparing model predictions for PCB-153 in air with measurements at nine long-term monitoring sites of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) reveals that nested simulations at a resolution of 1°× 1° yield results within a factor of 1.5 of observations at sites in northern Europe. At this resolution, the model attributes more than 90% of the atmospheric burden within any of the grid cells containing an EMEP site to advective atmospheric transport from elsewhere. Deteriorating model performance with decreasing resolution (15°× 15°, 5°× 5° and 1°× 1°), manifested by overestimation of concentrations across most of northern Europe by more than a factor of 3, illustrates the effect of numerical diffusion. Finally, we apply the model to demonstrate how the choice of spatial resolution affect predictions of atmospheric deposition to the Baltic Sea. While we envisage that NEM may be used for a wide range of applications in the future, further evaluation will be required to delineate the boundaries of applicability towards chemicals with divergent fate properties as well as in environmental media other than air.

Pilot study on long-term simulation of PCB-153 human body burden in the Tibetan Plateau

The historical body burden of 2,2',4,4',5,5'-Hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB-153) in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) population was simulated on the basis of localized exposure factors and dietary data, which present a preliminary attempt to quantify the influence of high lipid dietary patterns, grain transported from inland China, and atmospheric transport on human exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Herdsman with large animal-based food consumption exhibited the highest body burden that was comparable with that in inland China. The body burden of other residents was within the range of low-to-moderate level. High-lipid diet of urban residents caused their body burden being 1.5--2.5 times higher than that of rural residents. The consumption of grain transported from higher polluted areas can also result in 50%-115% increase in the body burden of Tibetan rural residents compared with when local produced grain is consumed, suggesting that the influence of grain logistic can be as important as dietary patterns. The exposure risk for rural residents associated with grain logistic should not be ignored even if they consumed less high-lipid food. By splitting the inventory, over 80% of the PCB-153 pollution in the TAR was identified to be induced by atmospheric transport from foreign countries. However, the grain logistic contributed approximately half of the overall human body burden of Tibetan residents recently if assuming that the grain shortage was supplied by adjacent Sichuan Province. The combined influence of high-lipid diet, atmospheric transport and food logistic highlights the difficulties of risk control in remote regions that accumulate POPs, such as TAR.

Time trends of persistent organic pollutants in 30 year olds sampled in 1986, 1994, 2001 and 2007 in Northern Norway: Measurements, mechanistic modeling and a comparison of study designs

BACKGROUND

Human biomonitoring studies have demonstrated decreasing concentrations of many persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in years after emission peaks.

OBJECTIVES

To describe time trends of POPs in blood using four cross-sectional samples of 30 year olds from Tromsø, Norway across 1986-2007, and to compare the measured concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyl 153 (PCB-153) to model-estimated values. A second objective was to compare the repeated cross-sectional time trends with those observed in our previous longitudinal study using repeated individual measurements in older men from the same surveys.

METHODS

Serum from 45 persons aged 30 years in each of the following years: 1986, 1994, 2001, and 2007 was analyzed for 14 POPs. Further, predicted concentrations of PCB-153 in each sampling year were derived using the emission-based CoZMoMAN model.

RESULTS

The median decreases in summed serum POP concentrations (lipid-adjusted) in 1994, 2001, and 2007 relative to 1986 were - 71%, - 81%, and - 86% for women and - 65%, - 77%, and - 87% for men, respectively. The overall time trend in predicted PCB-153 concentrations demonstrated agreement with the observed trend although model predictions were higher than the measured concentrations at all time points. Compared to our previous longitudinal study of repeated individual measurements in older men, similar although more prominent declines were observed in the younger cross-sectional samples.

DISCUSSION

Observed declines in serum concentrations from 1986 to 2007 were substantial for legacy POPs in men and women at reproductive ages in Northern Norway and are generally consistent with previous longitudinal biomonitoring efforts in the study population. The measured concentrations and observed declines likely reflect a combination of recent and historic exposures. Small differences in time trends observed between the studies could be attributed to different study designs (i.e. the chosen age group or sex and cross-sectional versus repeated individual measurement sampling).

A Model for Risk-Based Screening and Prioritization of Human Exposure to Chemicals from Near-Field Sources

Exposure- and risk-based assessments for chemicals used indoors or applied to humans (i.e., in near-field environments) necessitate an aggregate exposure pathway framework that aligns chemical exposure information from use sources to internal dose and eventually to their potential for health effects. Such a source-to-effect continuum is advocated to balance the complexity of human exposure and the insufficiency of relevant data for thousands of existing and emerging chemicals. Here, we introduce the Risk Assessment, IDentification And Ranking-Indoor and Consumer Exposure (RAIDAR-ICE) model, which establishes an integrated framework to evaluate human exposure due to indoor use and direct application of chemicals to humans. As a model evaluation, RAIDAR-ICE faithfully reproduces exposure estimates inferred from biomonitoring data for 37 chemicals with direct and indirect near-field sources. RAIDAR-ICE generates different rankings for 131 chemicals based on different exposure- and risk-based assessment metrics, demonstrating its versatility for diverse chemical screening goals. When coupled with a far-field RAIDAR model, the near-field RAIDAR-ICE model enables assessment of aggregate human exposure. Overall, RAIDAR-ICE is a powerful tool for high-throughput screening and prioritization of human exposure to neutral organic chemicals used indoors.

Predicting human plasma concentrations of persistent organic pollutants from dietary intake and socio-demographic information in the Norwegian Women and Cancer study

BACKGROUND

Concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in humans are influenced by a large number of factors including birth year, reproductive history and diet. Accordingly, information on dietary habits and socio-demographic variables may predict plasma concentrations of POPs, thus enabling studies on health effects in large epidemiological studies, without performing time consuming and expensive chemical analyses on entire cohorts.

AIMS

To develop and evaluate statistical models for predicting concentrations of POPs in participants of the Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) study, using questionnaire information and measured plasma POP concentrations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Information on estimated dietary intakes and socio-demographic variables from four different questionnaires (in 1991, 1994, 2004 and 2005) were obtained from participants in the NOWAC study. We measured POP concentrations in a total of 367 blood samples from 2005 and built multivariable linear regression models for p,p'-DDE, PCB-118, -138, -153, -180 and summed PCB concentrations in one subsample (N = 259) and evaluated the models in another subsample (N = 108). Measured and predicted values were compared using correlation coefficients and inter-method agreement was evaluated using weighted Cohen's κ for tertile categorization.

RESULTS

Median POP concentrations in the population ranged from 13 ng/g lipid to 162 ng/g lipid (lowest for PCB-118 and highest for p,p'-DDE). Common predictors for all POPs were birth year, breastfeeding and the weight-related variables (BMI or weight change), whereas influential dietary variables differed and were of varying importance. The predicted plasma concentrations were significantly correlated with the measured values (r_s = 0.24, 0.33, 0.41, 0.50, 0.56, and 0.54 for p,p'-DDE, PCB-118, -138, 153, -180 and summed PCBs, respectively). Tertiles of predicted plasma concentrations displayed significant, but varying agreement with measured concentrations (Weighted Cohen's κ = 0.19, 0.22, 0.33, 0.42, 0.45, and 0.50 respectively).

CONCLUSION

Predicted plasma concentrations of certain PCBs showed good precision (Kw > 0.4) when compared to measured concentrations. Thus, the models can be used to classify NOWAC participants into high, medium and low PCB exposure groups.

Towards a systematic understanding of the dynamic fate of polychlorinated biphenyls in indoor, urban and rural environments

Indoor environments and urban areas are hubs of chemical stocks and emissions, which contaminate those indoor and urban areas as well as the surrounding rural areas. Here, we introduce a newly developed nested multimedia indoor-urban-rural chemical fate model, coupled with a substance flow analysis, aiming to provide an integrated and dynamic understanding of the mass distribution, concentrations, and major pathways of contaminants within and between indoor, urban and rural environments. The model is applied to simulate the emissions, transport and fate of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners 28 and 153 in the Western Baltic drainage basin over time. Whereas >90% of PCBs were used in the urban outdoor environment, the model indicates that ~80% of emissions occurred indoors because of higher emission factors in open-end usage. Atmospheric advection is highly effective in transporting the bulk of the PCBs emitted indoors to urban (>85%) and rural (>75%) environments. The rural environment is identified as the main locale for accommodating (>80%) and removing (>50%) the emitted PCBs. Contamination of exposure-relevant compartments in the rural environment is anticipated to decrease slower than, and thus outlast, that in the indoor environment, which implies an increasing importance of the food chain accumulation in overall human exposure to PCBs over time. Our model demonstrates that, whereas the indoor environment contains an insignificant fraction of the total emissions remaining in the regional environment, it experiences orders of magnitude higher concentrations than the rural environment. Therefore, while including indoor and urban environments in modeling influences little the modeled overall chemical fate on a regional scale, it strongly affects modeling the human exposure associated with multimedia concentrations.

Modeling the Time-Variant Dietary Exposure of PCBs in China over the Period 1930 to 2100

This study aimed for the first time to reconstruct historical exposure profiles for PCBs to the Chinese population, by examining the combined effect of changing temporal emissions and dietary transition. A long-term (1930-2100) dynamic simulation of human exposure using realistic emission scenarios, including primary emissions, unintentional emissions, and emissions from e-waste, combined with dietary transition trends was conducted by a multimedia fate model (BETR-Global) linked to a bioaccumulation model (ACC-HUMAN). The model predicted an approximate 30-year delay of peak body burden for PCB-153 in a 30-year-old Chinese female, compared to their European counterpart. This was mainly attributed to a combination of change in diet and divergent emission patterns in China. A fish-based diet was predicted to result in up to 8 times higher body burden than a vegetable-based diet (2010-2100). During the production period, a worst-case scenario assuming only consumption of imported food from a region with more extensive production and usage of PCBs would result in up to 4 times higher body burden compared to consumption of only locally produced food. However, such differences gradually diminished after cessation of production. Therefore, emission reductions in China alone may not be sufficient to protect human health from PCB-like chemicals, particularly during the period of mass production. The results from this study illustrate that human exposure is also likely to be dictated by inflows of PCBs via the environment, waste, and food.

Revisiting the Contributions of Far- and Near-Field Routes to Aggregate Human Exposure to Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs)

The general population is exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) by consuming food from far-field contaminated agricultural and aquatic environments, and inhalation and nondietary ingestion in near-field indoor or residential environments. Here, we seek to evaluate the relative importance of far- and near-field routes by simulating the time-variant aggregate exposure of Swedish females to PCB congeners from 1930 to 2030. We rely on a mechanistic model, which integrates a food-chain bioaccumulation module and a human toxicokinetic module with dynamic substance flow analysis and nested indoor-urban-rural environmental fate modeling. Confidence in the model is established by successfully reproducing the observed PCB concentrations in Swedish human milk between 1972 and 2016. In general, far-field routes contribute most to total PCB uptake. However, near-field exposure is notable for (i) children and teenagers, who have frequent hand-to-mouth contact, (ii) cohorts born in earlier years, e.g., in 1956, when indoor environments were severely contaminated, and (iii) lighter chlorinated congeners. The relative importance of far- and near-field exposure in a cross-section of individuals of different age sampled at the same time is shown to depend on the time of sampling. The transition from the dominance of near- to far-field exposure that has happened for PCBs may also occur for other chemicals used indoors.

Predicting global scale exposure of humans to PCB 153 from historical emissions

Predicting human exposure to an environmental contaminant based on its emissions is one of the great challenges of environmental chemistry. It has been done successfully on a local or regional scale for some persistent organic pollutants. Here we assess whether it can be done at a global scale, using PCB 153 as a test chemical. The global multimedia fate model BETR Global and the human exposure model ACC-HUMAN were employed to predict the concentration of PCB 153 in human milk for 56 countries around the world from a global historical emissions scenario. The modeled concentrations were compared with measurements in pooled human milk samples from the UNEP/WHO Global Monitoring Plan. The modeled and measured concentrations were highly correlated (r = 0.76, p < 0.0001), and the concentrations were predicted within a factor of 4 for 49 of 78 observations. Modeled concentrations of PCB 153 in human milk were higher than measurements for some European countries, which may reflect weaknesses in the assumptions made for food sourcing and an underestimation of the rate of decrease of concentrations in air during the last decades. Conversely, modeled concentrations were lower than measurements in West African countries, and more work is needed to characterize exposure vectors in this region.

Quantitative estimation of mercury intake by toxicokinetic modelling based on total mercury levels in humans

Mercury is a toxic metal that can be disseminated into the environment from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Human exposure to the metal stems mainly from food, and more particularly from the consumption of fish and other seafoods. Examining dietary exposure and measuring mercury levels in body tissues are two ways of estimating exposure to mercury. In this study, we utilized a modelling system consisting of three linear toxicokinetic models for describing the fate of methyl mercury, inorganic mercury, and metallic mercury in the body, in order to estimate daily intake of mercury as measured through total mercury concentrations in the blood. We then compared the results stemming from our modelling system to those of the detailed semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) of the Norwegian Fish and Game (NFG) Study, a project that focused on dietary mercury exposure. The results indicate that toxicokinetic modelling based on blood levels gave higher daily intake values of mercury compared to those of the FFQ. Furthermore, the former had a wider range of estimates than the latter. The properties of the toxicokinetic model or limitations in the dietary exposure assessment could be posited as reasons for the differences between the respective methods. Moreover, the results may have been influenced by sources of mercury exposure that cannot be described as dietary, such as amalgam fillings.

Fate and Transport Modelling of Emerging Pollutants from Watersheds to Oceans: A Review

This chapter provides a review of the fate and transport modelling of emerging pollutants (EPs) and discusses the major research challenges. The overwhelming limitation of the past modelling studies has been the lack of data necessary for model validation, thus calling for large-scale field data sampling. The identification and understanding of fate and transport processes and their interactions of the target EPs and the corresponding selection of appropriate parameter values were also challenging. Such limitations and challenges were evidenced by the elaboration of the representative models in the field. The review also reveales that the model parameter values varied significantly with the EPs (and chemical compositions) and media of concerns. Sensitivity analysis was found to be necessary for modelling of those EPs with limited references in the literature. In comparison with traditional water pollutants, the concentrations of many EPs in water bodies are usually low and even at a trace level, leading to uncertainties or inaccuracy in measured data. This could further challenge model calibration and validation, and especially the determination of parameter values when lacking sufficient data support. How to improve the existing models to address such an issue special for EPs is an urgent task for researchers to ensure the accuracy and reliability of modelling results.

Long-Term Temporal Trends of Polychlorinated Biphenyls and Their Controlling Sources in China

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are industrial organic contaminants identified as persistent, bioaccumulative, toxic (PBT), and subject to long-range transport (LRT) with global scale significance. This study focuses on a reconstruction and prediction for China of long-term emission trends of intentionally and unintentionally produced (UP) ∑₇PCBs (UP-PCBs, from the manufacture of steel, cement and sinter iron) and their re-emissions from secondary sources (e.g., soils and vegetation) using a dynamic fate model (BETR-Global). Contemporary emission estimates combined with predictions from the multimedia fate model suggest that primary sources still dominate, although unintentional sources are predicted to become a main contributor from 2035 for PCB-28. Imported e-waste is predicted to play an increasing role until 2020-2030 on a national scale due to the decline of intentionally produced (IP) emissions. Hypothetical emission scenarios suggest that China could become a potential source to neighboring regions with a net output of ∼0.4 t year^-1 by around 2050. However, future emission scenarios and hence model results will be dictated by the efficiency of control measures.

The mass flow and proposed management of bisphenol A in selected Norwegian waste streams

Current initiatives for waste-handling in a circular economy favor prevention and recycling over incineration or landfilling. However, the impact of such a transition on environmental emissions of contaminants like bisphenol A (BPA) during waste-handling is not fully understood. To address this, a material flow analysis (MFA) was constructed for selected waste categories in Norway, for which the amount recycled is expected to increase in the future; glass, vehicle, electronic, plastic and combustible waste. Combined, 92tons/y of BPA are disposed of via these waste categories in Norway, with 98.5% associated with plastic and electronic waste. During the model year 2011, the MFA showed that BPA in these waste categories was destroyed through incineration (60%), exported for recycling into new products (35%), stored in landfills (4%) or released into the environment (1%). Landfilling led to the greatest environmental emissions (up to 13% of landfilled BPA), and incinerating the smallest (0.001% of incinerated BPA). From modelling different waste management scenarios, the most effective way to reduce BPA emissions are to incinerate BPA-containing waste and avoid landfilling it. A comparison of environmental and human BPA concentrations with CoZMoMAN exposure model estimations suggested that waste emissions are an insignificant regional source. Nevertheless, from monitoring studies, landfill emissions can be a substantial local source of BPA. Regarding the transition to a circular economy, it is clear that disposing of less BPA-containing waste and less landfilling would lead to lower environmental emissions, but several uncertainties remain regarding emissions of BPA during recycling, particularly for paper and plastics. Future research should focus on the fate of BPA, as well as BPA alternatives, in emerging reuse and recycling processes, as part of the transition to a circular economy.

The Global Food System as a Transport Pathway for Hazardous Chemicals: The Missing Link between Emissions and Exposure

BACKGROUND

Food is a major pathway for human exposure to hazardous chemicals. The modern food system is becoming increasingly complex and globalized, but models for food-borne exposure typically assume locally derived diets or use concentrations directly measured in foods without accounting for food origin. Such approaches may not reflect actual chemical intakes because concentrations depend on food origin, and representative analysis is seldom available. Processing, packaging, storage, and transportation also impart different chemicals to food and are not yet adequately addressed. Thus, the link between environmental emissions and realistic human exposure is effectively broken.

OBJECTIVES

We discuss the need for a fully integrated treatment of the modern industrialized food system, and we propose strategies for using existing models and relevant supporting data sources to track chemicals during production, processing, packaging, storage, and transport.

DISCUSSION

Fate and bioaccumulation models describe how chemicals distribute in the environment and accumulate through local food webs. Human exposure models can use concentrations in food to determine body burdens based on individual or population characteristics. New models now include the impacts of processing and packaging but are far from comprehensive. We propose to close the gap between emissions and exposure by utilizing a wider variety of models and data sources, including global food trade data, processing, and packaging models.

CONCLUSIONS

A comprehensive approach that takes into account the complexity of the modern global food system is essential to enable better prediction of human exposure to chemicals in food, sound risk assessments, and more focused risk abatement strategies. Citation: Ng CA, von Goetz N. 2017. The global food system as a transport pathway for hazardous chemicals: the missing link between emissions and exposure. Environ Health Perspect 125:1-7; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP168.

New approaches in human health risk assessment

Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu).

Deterministic modeling of the exposure of individual participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to polychlorinated biphenyls

A population's exposure to persistent organic pollutants, e.g., polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), is typically assessed through national biomonitoring programs, such as the United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). To complement statistical methods, we use a deterministic modeling approach to establish mechanistic links between human contaminant concentrations and factors (e.g. age, diet, lipid mass) deemed responsible for the often considerable variability in these concentrations. Lifetime exposures to four PCB congeners in 6128 participants from NHANES 1999-2004 are simulated using the ACC-Human model supplied with individualized input parameters obtained from NHANES questionnaires (e.g., birth year, sex, body mass index, dietary composition, reproductive behavior). Modeled and measured geometric mean PCB-153 concentrations in NHANES participants of 13.3 and 22.0 ng g^-1 lipid, respectively, agree remarkably well, although lower model-measurement agreement for air, water, and food suggests that this is partially due to fortuitous error cancellation. The model also reproduces trends in the measured data with key factors such as age, parity and sex. On an individual level, 62% of all modeled concentrations are within a factor of three of their corresponding measured values (Spearman r_s = 0.44). However, the model attributes more of the inter-individual variability to differences in dietary lipid intake than is indicated by the measured data. While the model succeeds in predicting levels and trends on the population level, the accuracy of individual-specific predictions would need to be improved for refined exposure characterization in epidemiological studies.

Tracking chemicals in products around the world: introduction of a dynamic substance flow analysis model and application to PCBs

Dynamically tracking flows and stocks of problematic chemicals in products (CiPs) in the global anthroposphere is essential to understanding their environmental fates and risks. The complex behavior of CiPs during production, use and waste disposal makes this a challenging task. Here we introduce and describe a dynamic substance flow model, named Chemicals in Products - Comprehensive Anthropospheric Fate Estimation (CiP-CAFE), which facilitates the quantification of time-variant flows and stocks of CiPs within and between seven interconnected world regions and the generation of global scale emission estimates. We applied CiP-CAFE to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), first to evaluate its ability to reproduce previously reported global-scale atmospheric emission inventories and second to illustrate its potential applications and merits. CiP-CAFE quantifies the pathways of PCBs during production, use and waste disposal stages, thereby deducing the temporal evolution of in-use and waste stocks and identifying their long-term final sinks. Time-variant estimates of PCB emissions into air, water and soil can be attributed to different processes and be fed directly into a global fate and transport model. By capturing the international movement of PCBs as technical chemicals, and in products and waste, CiP-CAFE reveals that the extent of global dispersal caused by humans is larger than that occurring in the natural environment. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the model output is most sensitive to the PCB production volume and the lifetime of PCB-containing products, suggesting that a shortening of that lifetime is key to reducing future PCB emissions.

Mechanistic polychlorinated biphenyl exposure modeling of mothers in the Canadian Arctic: the challenge of reliably establishing dietary composition

BACKGROUND

Traditional food (TF) consumption represents the main route of persistent organic pollutant (POP) exposure for indigenous Arctic Canadians. Ongoing dietary transitions away from TFs and toward imported foods (IFs) may contribute to decreasing POP exposures observed in these groups.

METHODS

To explore this issue, we combined the global fate and transport model GloboPOP and the human food chain bioaccumulation model ACC-Human Arctic to simulate polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) exposure in two indigenous Arctic Canadian communities from the Inuvik region, Northwest Territories and Baffin region, Nunavut. Using dietary survey information from initial (1996-98) and follow-up (2005-07) biomonitoring campaigns in Inuvik and Baffin, we simulated PCB exposures (PCB-118, -138, -153, and -180) for each individual study participant and also whole study populations.

RESULTS

TF intake rates, particularly of marine mammals (MMs), were the most important predictors of modeled PCB exposure, while TF consumption did not associate consistently with measured PCB exposures. Further, reported mean TF intake increased from baseline to follow-up in both Inuvik (from 8 to 183gd(-1)) and Baffin (from 60 to 134gd(-1)), opposing both the expected dietary transition direction and the observed decrease in human PCB exposures in these communities (ΣPCB Inuvik: from 43 to 29ngglipid(-1), ΣPCB Baffin: from 213 to 82ngglipid(-1)). However dietary questionnaire data are frequently subject to numerous biases (e.g., recall, recency, confirmation), and thus casts doubt on the usefulness of these data.

CONCLUSIONS

Ultimately, our model's capability to reproduce historic PCB exposure data in these two groups was highly sensitive to TF intake, further underscoring the importance of accurate TF consumption reporting, and clarification of the role of dietary transitions in future POP biomonitoring of indigenous Arctic populations.

Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women

BACKGROUND

Studies on the health effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) call for an understanding of past and present human exposure. Time-resolved mechanistic models may supplement information on concentrations in individuals obtained from measurements and/or statistical approaches if they can be shown to reproduce empirical data.

OBJECTIVES

Here, we evaluated the capability of one such mechanistic model to reproduce measured PCB concentrations in individual Norwegian women. We also assessed individual life-course concentrations.

METHODS

Concentrations of four PCB congeners in pregnant (n = 310, sampled in 2007-2009) and postmenopausal (n = 244, 2005) women were compared with person-specific predictions obtained using CoZMoMAN, an emission-based environmental fate and human food-chain bioaccumulation model. Person-specific predictions were also made using statistical regression models including dietary and lifestyle variables and concentrations.

RESULTS

CoZMoMAN accurately reproduced medians and ranges of measured concentrations in the two study groups. Furthermore, rank correlations between measurements and predictions from both CoZMoMAN and regression analyses were strong (Spearman's r > 0.67). Precision in quartile assignments from predictions was strong overall as evaluated by weighted Cohen's kappa (> 0.6). Simulations indicated large inter-individual differences in concentrations experienced in the past.

CONCLUSIONS

The mechanistic model reproduced all measurements of PCB concentrations within a factor of 10, and subject ranking and quartile assignments were overall largely consistent, although they were weak within each study group. Contamination histories for individuals predicted by CoZMoMAN revealed variation between study subjects, particularly in the timing of peak concentrations. Mechanistic models can provide individual PCB exposure metrics that could serve as valuable supplements to measurements.

Tracking the Global Distribution of Persistent Organic Pollutants Accounting for E-Waste Exports to Developing Regions

Elevated concentrations of various industrial-use Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), have been reported in some developing areas in subtropical and tropical regions known to be destinations of e-waste. We used a recent inventory of the global generation and exports of e-waste to develop various global scale emission scenarios for industrial-use organic contaminants (IUOCs). For representative IUOCs (RIUOCs), only hypothetical emissions via passive volatilization from e-waste were considered whereas for PCBs, historical emissions throughout the chemical life-cycle (i.e., manufacturing, use, disposal) were included. The environmental transport and fate of RIUOCs and PCBs were then simulated using the BETR Global 2.0 model. Export of e-waste is expected to increase and sustain global emissions beyond the baseline scenario, which assumes no export. A comparison between model predictions and observations for PCBs in selected recipient regions generally suggests a better agreement when exports are accounted for. This study may be the first to integrate the global transport of IUOCs in waste with their long-range transport in air and water. The results call for integrated chemical management strategies on a global scale.

Environmental fate and dietary exposures of humans to TCDD as a result of the spraying of Agent Orange in upland forests of Vietnam

The fate and transport of 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro-p-dibenzodioxin (TCDD) released into the environment of South Vietnam (SVN) as a consequence of the aerial application of the herbicidal defoliant Agent Orange (AO) were simulated for a generic upland forest scenario and followed over a 50-year period (1965, 1968 and 1970 onwards). Modeled concentrations of TCDD in the environment were then used as inputs to a human exposure model, which focused on long-term exposures via the food chain. Intake rates and body burdens of TCDD were estimated for adult males over the course of the simulation period and compared to available biomonitoring data. One of the most important factors determining the magnitude of the simulated human exposure to TCDD was the fraction of the chemical deposited directly to soil (where it was assumed to have a degradation half-life of 10 or 15years) relative to the fraction assumed to remain on/in the forest canopy following the spray application (where it was assumed to have a degradation half-life of ≤48h). The simulated body burdens under the various scenarios considered were broadly consistent with the biomonitoring data from SVN collected in the mid-1980s to late 1990s. Taken together, the modeling results and empirical data suggest that highly elevated exposures to TCDD (i.e., body burdens in the several 100s of pg/g lipid range and greater) were not common among people inhabiting upland forest locations in SVN sprayed with AO and that peak and average body burdens were broadly similar to those of the general population of the U.S. in the 1970s and early 1980s. The model-based assessment is consistent with the 'hot spot' hypothesis i.e., potential exposures to TCDD linked to activities conducted on or near former bases where AO was stored are greater than potential exposures in areas subjected to aerial spraying.

Historical intake and elimination of polychlorinated biphenyls and organochlorine pesticides by the Australian population reconstructed from biomonitoring data

Quantifying the competing rates of intake and elimination of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the human body is necessary to understand the levels and trends of POPs at a population level. In this paper we reconstruct the historical intake and elimination of ten polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and five organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from Australian biomonitoring data by fitting a population-level pharmacokinetic (PK) model. Our analysis exploits two sets of cross-sectional biomonitoring data for PCBs and OCPs in pooled blood serum samples from the Australian population that were collected in 2003 and 2009. The modeled adult reference intakes in 1975 for PCB congeners ranged from 0.89 to 24.5ng/kgbw/day, lower than the daily intakes of OCPs ranging from 73 to 970ng/kgbw/day. Modeled intake rates are declining with half-times from 1.1 to 1.3years for PCB congeners and 0.83 to 0.97years for OCPs. The shortest modeled intrinsic human elimination half-life among the compounds studied here is 6.4years for hexachlorobenzene, and the longest is 30years for PCB-74. Our results indicate that it is feasible to reconstruct intakes and to estimate intrinsic human elimination half-lives using the population-level PK model and biomonitoring data only. Our modeled intrinsic human elimination half-lives are in good agreement with values from a similar study carried out for the population of the United Kingdom, and are generally longer than reported values from other industrialized countries in the Northern Hemisphere.

A novel modeling tool with multi-stressor functionality for organic contaminant transport and fate in the Baltic Sea

The coupled physical-biogeochemical model BALTSEM, previously used to assess nutrient/carbon cycles and eutrophication in the Baltic Sea, has been expanded to include algorithms for calculations of organic contaminant environmental transport and fate. This novel model version (BALTSEM-POP) is evaluated for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in Baltic Sea surface water and sediment. Modeled dissolved concentrations are usually within a factor of 2-4 of observed concentrations, however with larger deviations for furans. Calculated concentrations in particulate organic matter are less accurate (within factors of 1-700), likely due to errors in estimated pelagic biomass, particulate matter-water partitioning, and large natural variability in field data. Concentrations in sediments are usually predicted within a factor of 6. The good performance of the model illustrates its usefulness for exploration of contaminant fate in response to variations in nutrient input and climatic conditions in the Baltic Sea marine environment.

Model for screening-level assessment of near-field human exposure to neutral organic chemicals released indoors

Screening organic chemicals for hazard and risk to human health requires near-field human exposure models that can be readily parametrized with available data. The integration of a model of human exposure, uptake, and bioaccumulation into an indoor mass balance model provides a quantitative framework linking emissions in indoor environments with human intake rates (iRs), intake fractions (iFs) and steady-state concentrations in humans (C) through consideration of dermal permeation, inhalation, and nondietary ingestion exposure pathways. Parameterized based on representative indoor and adult human characteristics, the model is applied here to 40 chemicals of relevance in the context of human exposure assessment. Intake fractions and human concentrations (C(U)) calculated with the model based on a unit emission rate to air for these 40 chemicals span 2 and 5 orders of magnitude, respectively. Differences in priority ranking based on either iF or C(U) can be attributed to the absorption, biotransformation and elimination processes within the human body. The model is further applied to a large data set of hypothetical chemicals representative of many in-use chemicals to show how the dominant exposure pathways, iF and C(U) change as a function of chemical properties and to illustrate the capacity of the model for high-throughput screening. These simulations provide hypotheses for the combination of chemical properties that may result in high exposure and internal dose. The model is further exploited to highlight the role human contaminant uptake plays in the overall fate of certain chemicals indoors and consequently human exposure.

A new multimedia contaminant fate model for China: how important are environmental parameters in influencing chemical persistence and long-range transport potential?

We present a new multimedia chemical fate model (SESAMe) which was developed to assess chemical fate and behaviour across China. We apply the model to quantify the influence of environmental parameters on chemical overall persistence (POV) and long-range transport potential (LRTP) in China, which has extreme diversity in environmental conditions. Sobol sensitivity analysis was used to identify the relative importance of input parameters. Physicochemical properties were identified as more influential than environmental parameters on model output. Interactive effects of environmental parameters on POV and LRTP occur mainly in combination with chemical properties. Hypothetical chemicals and emission data were used to model POV and LRTP for neutral and acidic chemicals with different KOW/DOW, vapour pressure and pKa under different precipitation, wind speed, temperature and soil organic carbon contents (fOC). Generally for POV, precipitation was more influential than the other environmental parameters, whilst temperature and wind speed did not contribute significantly to POV variation; for LRTP, wind speed was more influential than the other environmental parameters, whilst the effects of other environmental parameters relied on specific chemical properties. fOC had a slight effect on POV and LRTP, and higher fOC always increased POV and decreased LRTP. Example case studies were performed on real test chemicals using SESAMe to explore the spatial variability of model output and how environmental properties affect POV and LRTP. Dibenzofuran released to multiple media had higher POV in northwest of Xinjiang, part of Gansu, northeast of Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Jilin. Benzo[a]pyrene released to the air had higher LRTP in south Xinjiang and west Inner Mongolia, whilst acenaphthene had higher LRTP in Tibet and west Inner Mongolia. TCS released into water had higher LRTP in Yellow River and Yangtze River catchments. The initial case studies demonstrated that SESAMe performed well on comparing POV and LRTP of chemicals in different regions across China in order to potentially identify the most sensitive regions. This model should not only be used to estimate POV and LRTP for screening and risk assessments of chemicals, but could potentially be used to help design chemical monitoring programmes across China in the future.

Clarifying relationships between persistent organic pollutant concentrations and age in wildlife biomonitoring: individuals, cross-sections, and the roles of lifespan and sex

Relationships between persistent organic pollutant (POP) levels and age in wildlife biomonitoring are often interpreted as changes in contaminant burden as organisms age. However, cross-sectional body burden-age trends (CBATs) obtained from biomonitoring studies, which sample individuals of different ages at the same time, should not be confused with longitudinal body burden-age trends (LBATs) obtained by sampling the same individuals repeatedly through time. To clarify how CBATs and LBATs for wildlife species deviate from each other, and describe any impact of lifespan and sex, we used mechanistic bioaccumulation models to estimate historic longitudinal exposures of polar cod, ringed seals, beluga whales, and bowhead whales to polychlorinated biphenyl congener 153. Cross-sectional body burden-age trends were then produced by sampling resultant LBATs of successive birth cohorts at specific time points. As found previously for humans, the year of sampling relative to the year of peak environmental contamination was a critical parameter in determining male CBAT shapes. However, a similar cohort effect was not apparent for reproductive females because efficient POP loss through lactation prevented their lipids from retaining a memory of past exposure levels. Thus, lactation loss was not only responsible for the large differences between the CBATs of males and females of the same species, but also the lack of female CBAT variability through time. Cross-sectional body burden-age trend shapes varied little between species by lifespan, as long as equivalent age scales were used. However, lifespan relative to the timescale of environmental contaminant level changes did determine the extent to which CBATs resembled LBATs for males. We suggest that accounting for birth cohort and sex effects is essential when interpreting age trends in POP biomonitoring studies of long-lived species.

Evaluating the effectiveness of fish consumption advisories: modeling prenatal, postnatal, and childhood exposures to persistent organic pollutants

BACKGROUND

Because human exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) occurs mainly through ingestion of contaminated food, regulatory bodies issue dietary consumption advisories to describe safe intake levels for food items of concern, particularly fish.

OBJECTIVES

Our study goal was to estimate the effectiveness of fish consumption advisories in reducing exposure of infants and children to POPs.

METHODS

We used the time-variant mechanistic model CoZMoMAN to estimate and compare prenatal, postnatal, and childhood exposure to polychlorinated biphenyl congener PCB-153 under different scenarios of maternal guideline adherence for both hypothetical constant and realistic time-variant chemical emissions. The scenarios differed in terms of length of compliance (1 vs. 5 years), extent of fish substitution (all vs. half), and replacement diet (uncontaminated produce vs. beef). We also estimated potential exposure reductions for a range of theoretical chemicals to explore how guideline effectiveness varies with a chemical's partitioning and degradation properties.

RESULTS

When assuming realistic time periods of advisory compliance, our findings suggest that temporarily eliminating or reducing maternal fish consumption is largely ineffective in reducing pre- and postnatal exposure to substances with long elimination half-lives in humans, especially during periods of decreasing environmental emissions. Substituting fish with beef may actually result in higher exposure to certain groups of environmental contaminants. On the other hand, advisories may be highly effective in reducing exposure to substances with elimination half-lives in humans shorter than the length of compliance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model estimates suggest that fish consumption advisories are unlikely to be effective in reducing prenatal, postnatal, and childhood exposures to compounds with long elimination half-lives in humans.

Evaluating the environmental fate of short-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) in the Nordic environment using a dynamic multimedia model

Short chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) raise concerns due to their potential for persistence, bioaccumulation, long-range transport and adverse effects. An understanding of their environmental fate remains limited, partly due to the complexity of the mixture. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether a mechanistic, integrated, dynamic environmental fate and bioaccumulation multimedia model (CoZMoMAN) can reconcile what is known about environmental emissions and human exposure of SCCPs in the Nordic environment. Realistic SCCP emission scenarios, resolved by formula group, were estimated and used to predict the composition and concentrations of SCCPs in the environment and the human food chain. Emissions at the upper end of the estimated range resulted in predicted total concentrations that were often within a factor of 6 of observations. Similar model performance for a complex group of organic contaminants as for the well-known polychlorinated biphenyls strengthens the confidence in the CoZMoMAN model and implies a relatively good mechanistic understanding of the environmental fate of SCCPs. However, the degree of chlorination predicted for SCCPs in sediments, fish, and humans was higher than observed and poorly established environmental half-lives and biotransformation rate constants contributed to the uncertainties in the predicted composition and ∑SCCP concentrations. Improving prediction of the SCCP composition will also require better constrained estimates of the composition of SCCP emissions. There is, however, also large uncertainty and lack of coherence in the existing observations, and better model-measurement agreement will require improved analytical methods and more strategic sampling. More measurements of SCCP levels and compositions in samples from background regions are particularly important.

Persistent organic pollutants in Norwegian men from 1979 to 2007: intraindividual changes, age-period-cohort effects, and model predictions

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal monitoring studies of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in human populations are important to better understand changes with time and age, and for future predictions.

OBJECTIVES

We sought to describe serum POP time trends on an individual level, investigate age-period-cohort effects, and compare predicted polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations to measured values.

METHODS

Serum was sampled in 1979, 1986, 1994, 2001, and 2007 from a cohort of 53 men in Northern Norway and analyzed for 41 POPs. Time period, age, and birth cohort effects were assessed by graphical analyses and mixed-effect models. We derived the predicted concentrations of four PCBs for each sampling year using the CoZMoMAN model.

RESULTS

The median decreases in summed serum POP concentrations (lipid-adjusted) in 1986, 1994, 2001, and 2007 relative to 1979 were -22%, -52%, -54%, and -68%, respectively. We observed substantial declines in all POP groups with the exception of chlordanes. Time period (reflected by sampling year) was the strongest descriptor of changes in PCB-153 concentrations. Predicted PCB-153 concentrations were consistent with measured concentrations in the study population.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest substantial intraindividual declines in serum concentrations of legacy POPs from 1979 to 2007 in men from Northern Norway. These changes are consistent with reduced environmental exposure during these 30 years and highlight the relation between historic emissions and POP concentrations measured in humans. Observed data and interpretations are supported by estimates from the CoZMoMAN emission-based model. A longitudinal decrease in concentrations with age was evident for all birth cohorts. Overall, our findings support the relevance of age-period-cohort effects to human biomonitoring of environmental contaminants.

A methodology for evaluating the influence of diets and intergenerational dietary transitions on historic and future human exposure to persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic

Concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Inuit populations have been observed to decrease over the last decade. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to quantify the potential influence of intergenerational dietary transitions on human exposure to organic contaminants in the Arctic environment using PCB-153 as a case study. Long-term (1930-2050) dynamic simulations using realistic emission estimates were conducted using linked chemical fate and bioaccumulation models. Female body burdens were calculated over time assuming five diets with varying proportions of traditional and imported food items and then used to illustrate the potential variability at a community/population level. At any given time point, individuals consuming a 100% traditional diet (i.e. high intake of ringed seal blubber) have modelled body burdens approximately 15-150 times higher than individuals consuming a 100% imported food diet. Consumption of locally-harvested fish (e.g. Arctic cod) and seal meat are also associated with comparatively low body burdens. Decreased emissions are predicted to decrease the PCB-153 body burden of 30-year old females by 6 to 13-fold from 1980 to 2020 with dietary transitions accounting for an additional factor of 2-50 (i.e. 12-650 times lower in total) depending on the type of dietary transition and the origin of the imported food items. The model results indicate that dietary transitions are an important factor underlying the variability within and between subpopulations in addition to partially explaining the observed temporal trends. Specific information on the nature and timing of dietary transitions is highly valuable when interpreting biomonitoring data.

Understanding differences in the body burden-age relationships of bioaccumulating contaminants based on population cross sections versus individuals

BACKGROUND

Body burdens of persistent bioaccumulative contaminants estimated from the cross-sectional biomonitoring of human populations are often plotted against age. Such relationships have previously been assumed to reflect the role of age in bioaccumulation.

OBJECTIVES

We used a mechanistic modeling approach to reproduce concentration-versus-age relationships and investigate factors that influence them.

METHOD

CoZMoMAN is an environmental fate and human food chain bioaccumulation model that estimates time trends in human body burdens in response to time-variant environmental emissions. Trends of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congener 153 concentrations versus age for population cross sections were estimated using simulated longitudinal data for individual women born at different times. The model was also used to probe the influence of partitioning and degradation properties, length of emissions, and model assumptions regarding lipid content and liver metabolism on concentration-age trends of bioaccumulative and persistent contaminants.

RESULTS

Body burden-age relationships for population cross sections and individuals over time are not equivalent. The time lapse between the peak in emissions and sample collection for biomonitoring is the most influential factor controlling the shape of concentration-age trends for chemicals with human metabolic half-lives longer than 1 year. Differences in observed concentration-age trends for PCBs and polybrominated diphenyl ethers are consistent with differences in emission time trends and human metabolic half-lives.

CONCLUSIONS

Bioaccumulation does not monotonically increase with age. Our model suggests that the main predictors of cross-sectional body burden trends with age are the amount of time elapsed after peak emissions and the human metabolic and environmental degradation rates.

Partitioning of polar and non-polar neutral organic chemicals into human and cow milk

The aim of this work was to develop a predictive model for milk/water partition coefficients of neutral organic compounds. Batch experiments were performed for 119 diverse organic chemicals in human milk and raw and processed cow milk at 37°C. No differences (<0.3 log units) in the partition coefficients of these types of milk were observed. The polyparameter linear free energy relationship model fit the calibration data well (SD=0.22 log units). An experimental validation data set including hormones and hormone active compounds was predicted satisfactorily by the model. An alternative modelling approach based on log K(ow) revealed a poorer performance. The model presented here provides a significant improvement in predicting enrichment of potentially hazardous chemicals in milk. In combination with physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling this improvement in the estimation of milk/water partitioning coefficients may allow a better risk assessment for a wide range of neutral organic chemicals.

Investigating intergenerational differences in human PCB exposure due to variable emissions and reproductive behaviors

BACKGROUND

Reproductive behaviors--such as age of childbearing, parity, and breast-feeding prevalence--have changed over the same historical time period as emissions of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and may produce intergenerational differences in human PCB exposure.

OBJECTIVES

Our goal in this study was to estimate prenatal, postnatal, and lifetime PCB exposures for women at different ages according to year of birth, and to evaluate the impact of reproductive characteristics on intergenerational differences in exposure.

METHODS

We used the time-variant mechanistic model CoZMoMAN to calculate human bioaccumulation of PCBs, assuming both hypothetical constant and realistic time-variant emissions.

RESULTS

Although exposure primarily depends on when an individual was born relative to the emission history of PCBs, reproductive behaviors can have a significant impact. Our model suggests that a mother's reproductive history has a greater influence on the prenatal and postnatal exposures of her children than it does on her own cumulative lifetime exposure. In particular, a child's birth order appears to have a strong influence on their prenatal exposure, whereas postnatal exposure is determined by the type of milk (formula or breast milk) fed to the infant.

CONCLUSIONS

Prenatal PCB exposure appears to be delayed relative to the time of PCB emissions, particularly among those born after the PCB production phaseout. Consequently, the health repercussions of environmental PCBs can be expected to persist for several decades, despite bans on their production for > 40 years.

Susceptibility of human populations to environmental exposure to organic contaminants

Environmental exposure to organic contaminants is a complex function of environmental conditions, food chain characteristics, and chemical properties. In this study the susceptibility of various human populations to environmental exposure to neutral organic contaminants was compared. An environmental fate model and a linked bioaccumulation model were parametrized to describe ecosystems in different climatic regions (temperate, arctic, tropical, and steppe). The human body burden resulting from constant emissions of hypothetical chemicals was estimated for each region. An exposure susceptibility index was defined as the body burden in the region of interest normalized to the burden of the same chemical in a reference human from the temperate region eating an average diet. For most persistent chemicals emitted to air, the Arctic had the highest susceptibility index (max 520). Susceptibility to exposure was largely determined by the food web properties. The properties of the physical environment only had a marked effect when air or water, not food, was the dominant source of human exposure. Shifting the mode of emission markedly changed the relative susceptibility of the ecosystems in some cases. The exposure arising from chemical use clearly varies between ecosystems, which makes an understanding of ecosystem susceptibility to exposure important for chemicals management.