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For: Biggerstaff M, Johansson M, Alper D, Brooks LC, Chakraborty P, Farrow DC, Hyun S, Kandula S, McGowan C, Ramakrishnan N, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ, Vespignani A, Yang W, Zhang Q, Reed C. Results from the second year of a collaborative effort to forecast influenza seasons in the United States. Epidemics 2018;24:26-33. [PMID: 29506911 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.02.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2017] [Revised: 02/06/2018] [Accepted: 02/20/2018] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]  Open
Number Cited by Other Article(s)
1
Andronico A, Paireau J, Cauchemez S. Integrating information from historical data into mechanistic models for influenza forecasting. PLoS Comput Biol 2024;20:e1012523. [PMID: 39475955 PMCID: PMC11524484 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012523] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2023] [Accepted: 09/27/2024] [Indexed: 11/02/2024]  Open
2
de Jong SP, Conlan A, Han AX, Russell CA. Commuting-driven competition between transmission chains shapes seasonal influenza virus epidemics in the United States. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2024.08.09.24311720. [PMID: 39148829 PMCID: PMC11326338 DOI: 10.1101/2024.08.09.24311720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/17/2024]
3
Turtle J, Ben-Nun M, Riley P. Enhancing seasonal influenza projections: A mechanistic metapopulation model for long-term scenario planning. Epidemics 2024;47:100758. [PMID: 38574441 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100758] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2023] [Revised: 11/17/2023] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/06/2024]  Open
4
Lopez VK, Cramer EY, Pagano R, Drake JM, O’Dea EB, Adee M, Ayer T, Chhatwal J, Dalgic OO, Ladd MA, Linas BP, Mueller PP, Xiao J, Bracher J, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, Huang Y, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Le K, Mühlemann A, Niemi J, Ray EL, Stark A, Wang Y, Wattanachit N, Zorn MW, Pei S, Shaman J, Yamana TK, Tarasewicz SR, Wilson DJ, Baccam S, Gurung H, Stage S, Suchoski B, Gao L, Gu Z, Kim M, Li X, Wang G, Wang L, Wang Y, Yu S, Gardner L, Jindal S, Marshall M, Nixon K, Dent J, Hill AL, Kaminsky J, Lee EC, Lemaitre JC, Lessler J, Smith CP, Truelove S, Kinsey M, Mullany LC, Rainwater-Lovett K, Shin L, Tallaksen K, Wilson S, Karlen D, Castro L, Fairchild G, Michaud I, Osthus D, Bian J, Cao W, Gao Z, Lavista Ferres J, Li C, Liu TY, Xie X, Zhang S, Zheng S, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore y Piontti A, Vespignani A, Xiong X, Walraven R, Chen J, Gu Q, Wang L, Xu P, Zhang W, Zou D, Gibson GC, Sheldon D, Srivastava A, Adiga A, Hurt B, Kaur G, Lewis B, Marathe M, Peddireddy AS, Porebski P, Venkatramanan S, Wang L, Prasad PV, Walker JW, Webber AE, Slayton RB, Biggerstaff M, Reich NG, Johansson MA. Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021. PLoS Comput Biol 2024;20:e1011200. [PMID: 38709852 PMCID: PMC11098513 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011200] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2023] [Revised: 05/16/2024] [Accepted: 04/01/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024]  Open
5
Bay C, St-Onge G, Davis JT, Chinazzi M, Howerton E, Lessler J, Runge MC, Shea K, Truelove S, Viboud C, Vespignani A. Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis. Epidemics 2024;46:100748. [PMID: 38394928 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100748] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2023] [Revised: 12/19/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 02/25/2024]  Open
6
Holcomb KM, Staples JE, Nett RJ, Beard CB, Petersen LR, Benjamin SG, Green BW, Jones H, Johansson MA. Multi-Model Prediction of West Nile Virus Neuroinvasive Disease With Machine Learning for Identification of Important Regional Climatic Drivers. GEOHEALTH 2023;7:e2023GH000906. [PMID: 38023388 PMCID: PMC10654557 DOI: 10.1029/2023gh000906] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2023] [Revised: 09/15/2023] [Accepted: 10/21/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023]
7
Bhatia S, Parag KV, Wardle J, Nash RK, Imai N, Elsland SLV, Lassmann B, Brownstein JS, Desai A, Herringer M, Sewalk K, Loeb SC, Ramatowski J, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Jauneikaite E, Unwin HJT, Riley S, Ferguson N, Donnelly CA, Cori A, Nouvellet P. Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts. PLoS One 2023;18:e0286199. [PMID: 37851661 PMCID: PMC10584190 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0286199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 05/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/20/2023]  Open
8
Morris M, Hayes P, Cox IJ, Lampos V. Neural network models for influenza forecasting with associated uncertainty using Web search activity trends. PLoS Comput Biol 2023;19:e1011392. [PMID: 37639427 PMCID: PMC10491400 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011392] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Revised: 09/08/2023] [Accepted: 07/26/2023] [Indexed: 08/31/2023]  Open
9
Aronis JM, Ye Y, Espino J, Hochheiser H, Michaels MG, Cooper GF. A Bayesian System to Track Outbreaks of Influenza-Like Illnesses Including Novel Diseases. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.05.10.23289799. [PMID: 37293033 PMCID: PMC10246032 DOI: 10.1101/2023.05.10.23289799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
10
Pei S, Blumberg S, Vega JC, Robin T, Zhang Y, Medford RJ, Adhikari B, Shaman J. Challenges in Forecasting Antimicrobial Resistance. Emerg Infect Dis 2023;29:679-685. [PMID: 36958029 PMCID: PMC10045679 DOI: 10.3201/eid2904.221552] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/25/2023]  Open
11
Bleichrodt A, Dahal S, Maloney K, Casanova L, Luo R, Chowell G. Real-time forecasting the trajectory of monkeypox outbreaks at the national and global levels, July-October 2022. BMC Med 2023;21:19. [PMID: 36647108 PMCID: PMC9841951 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02725-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2022] [Accepted: 12/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]  Open
12
Iftikhar H, Daniyal M, Qureshi M, Tawaiah K, Ansah RK, Afriyie JK. A hybrid forecasting technique for infection and death from the mpox virus. Digit Health 2023;9:20552076231204748. [PMID: 37799502 PMCID: PMC10548807 DOI: 10.1177/20552076231204748] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2023] [Accepted: 09/14/2023] [Indexed: 10/07/2023]  Open
13
Osthus D. Fast and accurate influenza forecasting in the United States with Inferno. PLoS Comput Biol 2022;18:e1008651. [PMID: 35100253 PMCID: PMC8830797 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008651] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2020] [Revised: 02/10/2022] [Accepted: 01/02/2022] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]  Open
14
McAndrew T, Reich NG. Adaptively stacking ensembles for influenza forecasting. Stat Med 2021;40:6931-6952. [PMID: 34647627 PMCID: PMC8671371 DOI: 10.1002/sim.9219] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2021] [Revised: 09/13/2021] [Accepted: 09/14/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
15
Epidemic tracking and forecasting: Lessons learned from a tumultuous year. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021;118:2111456118. [PMID: 34903658 PMCID: PMC8713795 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2111456118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/23/2021] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]  Open
16
Ali ST, Cowling BJ. Influenza Virus: Tracking, Predicting, and Forecasting. Annu Rev Public Health 2021;42:43-57. [PMID: 33348997 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-publhealth-010720-021049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
17
St-Onge G, Sun H, Allard A, Hébert-Dufresne L, Bianconi G. Universal Nonlinear Infection Kernel from Heterogeneous Exposure on Higher-Order Networks. PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS 2021;127:158301. [PMID: 34678024 PMCID: PMC9199393 DOI: 10.1103/physrevlett.127.158301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2021] [Revised: 07/26/2021] [Accepted: 08/25/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
18
Pollett S, Johansson MA, Reich NG, Brett-Major D, Del Valle SY, Venkatramanan S, Lowe R, Porco T, Berry IM, Deshpande A, Kraemer MUG, Blazes DL, Pan-ngum W, Vespigiani A, Mate SE, Silal SP, Kandula S, Sippy R, Quandelacy TM, Morgan JJ, Ball J, Morton LC, Althouse BM, Pavlin J, van Panhuis W, Riley S, Biggerstaff M, Viboud C, Brady O, Rivers C. Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines. PLoS Med 2021;18:e1003793. [PMID: 34665805 PMCID: PMC8525759 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003793] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]  Open
19
De Toni G, Consonni C, Montresor A. A general method for estimating the prevalence of influenza-like-symptoms with Wikipedia data. PLoS One 2021;16:e0256858. [PMID: 34464416 PMCID: PMC8407583 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256858] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2020] [Accepted: 08/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/04/2022]  Open
20
Murphy C, Laurence E, Allard A. Deep learning of contagion dynamics on complex networks. Nat Commun 2021;12:4720. [PMID: 34354055 PMCID: PMC8342694 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24732-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2020] [Accepted: 07/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]  Open
21
The limits of SARS-CoV-2 predictability. Nat Ecol Evol 2021;5:1052-1054. [PMID: 34253890 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-021-01514-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
22
Miliou I, Xiong X, Rinzivillo S, Zhang Q, Rossetti G, Giannotti F, Pedreschi D, Vespignani A. Predicting seasonal influenza using supermarket retail records. PLoS Comput Biol 2021;17:e1009087. [PMID: 34252075 PMCID: PMC8297944 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2020] [Revised: 07/22/2021] [Accepted: 05/15/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]  Open
23
Muchnik L, Yom-Tov E, Levy N, Rubin A, Louzoun Y. Initial growth rates of malware epidemics fail to predict their reach. Sci Rep 2021;11:11750. [PMID: 34083697 PMCID: PMC8175743 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-91321-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2020] [Accepted: 05/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]  Open
24
Osthus D, Moran KR. Multiscale influenza forecasting. Nat Commun 2021;12:2991. [PMID: 34016992 PMCID: PMC8137955 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23234-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2019] [Accepted: 04/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]  Open
25
Poirier C, Hswen Y, Bouzillé G, Cuggia M, Lavenu A, Brownstein JS, Brewer T, Santillana M. Influenza forecasting for French regions combining EHR, web and climatic data sources with a machine learning ensemble approach. PLoS One 2021;16:e0250890. [PMID: 34010293 PMCID: PMC8133501 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250890] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2021] [Accepted: 04/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]  Open
26
Biegel HR, Lega J. EpiCovDA: a mechanistic COVID-19 forecasting model with data assimilation. ARXIV 2021:arXiv:2105.05471v2. [PMID: 34012991 PMCID: PMC8132228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Revised: 10/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
27
Keyes KM, Kandula S, Olfson M, Gould MS, Martínez-Alés G, Rutherford C, Shaman J. Suicide and the agent-host-environment triad: leveraging surveillance sources to inform prevention. Psychol Med 2021;51:529-537. [PMID: 33663629 PMCID: PMC8020492 DOI: 10.1017/s003329172000536x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2020] [Revised: 12/14/2020] [Accepted: 01/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
28
Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map. Nat Commun 2021;12:726. [PMID: 33563980 PMCID: PMC7873234 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21018-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2019] [Accepted: 01/07/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]  Open
29
Pei S, Teng X, Lewis P, Shaman J. Optimizing respiratory virus surveillance networks using uncertainty propagation. Nat Commun 2021;12:222. [PMID: 33431854 PMCID: PMC7801666 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20399-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2019] [Accepted: 12/01/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]  Open
30
Gibson GC, Moran KR, Reich NG, Osthus D. Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence. PLoS Comput Biol 2021;17:e1007623. [PMID: 33406068 PMCID: PMC7837472 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007623] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2019] [Revised: 01/26/2021] [Accepted: 09/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]  Open
31
Sachak-Patwa R, Byrne HM, Thompson RN. Accounting for cross-immunity can improve forecast accuracy during influenza epidemics. Epidemics 2020;34:100432. [PMID: 33360870 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100432] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2020] [Revised: 12/11/2020] [Accepted: 12/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]  Open
32
Bomfim R, Pei S, Shaman J, Yamana T, Makse HA, Andrade JS, Lima Neto AS, Furtado V. Predicting dengue outbreaks at neighbourhood level using human mobility in urban areas. J R Soc Interface 2020;17:20200691. [PMID: 33109025 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]  Open
33
Pei S, Shaman J. Aggregating forecasts of multiple respiratory pathogens supports more accurate forecasting of influenza-like illness. PLoS Comput Biol 2020;16:e1008301. [PMID: 33090997 PMCID: PMC7608986 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2019] [Revised: 11/03/2020] [Accepted: 09/02/2020] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]  Open
34
Kramer SC, Pei S, Shaman J. Forecasting influenza in Europe using a metapopulation model incorporating cross-border commuting and air travel. PLoS Comput Biol 2020;16:e1008233. [PMID: 33052907 PMCID: PMC7588111 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2020] [Revised: 10/26/2020] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]  Open
35
Haw DJ, Pung R, Read JM, Riley S. Strong spatial embedding of social networks generates nonstandard epidemic dynamics independent of degree distribution and clustering. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020;117:23636-23642. [PMID: 32900923 PMCID: PMC7519285 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1910181117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]  Open
36
Galanti M, Comito D, Ligon C, Lane B, Matienzo N, Ibrahim S, Shittu A, Tagne E, Birger R, Ud-Dean M, Filip I, Morita H, Rabadan R, Anthony S, Freyer GA, Dayan P, Shopsin B, Shaman J. Active surveillance documents rates of clinical care seeking due to respiratory illness. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2020;14:499-506. [PMID: 32415751 PMCID: PMC7276732 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12753] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2019] [Revised: 02/04/2020] [Accepted: 04/12/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]  Open
37
Forecasting the 2017/2018 seasonal influenza epidemic in England using multiple dynamic transmission models: a case study. BMC Public Health 2020;20:486. [PMID: 32293372 PMCID: PMC7158152 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-020-8455-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2019] [Accepted: 03/04/2020] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]  Open
38
Behrend MR, Basáñez MG, Hamley JID, Porco TC, Stolk WA, Walker M, de Vlas SJ. Modelling for policy: The five principles of the Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020;14:e0008033. [PMID: 32271755 PMCID: PMC7144973 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]  Open
39
Lu J, Meyer S. Forecasting Flu Activity in the United States: Benchmarking an Endemic-Epidemic Beta Model. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020;17:E1381. [PMID: 32098038 PMCID: PMC7068443 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17041381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2019] [Revised: 02/07/2020] [Accepted: 02/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Brown AC, Lauer SA, Robinson CC, Nyquist AC, Rao S, Reich NG. Evaluating the ALERT algorithm for local outbreak onset detection in seasonal infectious disease surveillance data. Stat Med 2020;39:1145-1155. [PMID: 31985869 PMCID: PMC7169531 DOI: 10.1002/sim.8467] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2018] [Revised: 11/29/2019] [Accepted: 12/14/2019] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
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Darwish A, Rahhal Y, Jafar A. A comparative study on predicting influenza outbreaks using different feature spaces: application of influenza-like illness data from Early Warning Alert and Response System in Syria. BMC Res Notes 2020;13:33. [PMID: 31948473 PMCID: PMC6964210 DOI: 10.1186/s13104-020-4889-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2019] [Accepted: 01/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]  Open
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Aiello AE, Renson A, Zivich PN. Social Media- and Internet-Based Disease Surveillance for Public Health. Annu Rev Public Health 2020;41:101-118. [PMID: 31905322 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-publhealth-040119-094402] [Citation(s) in RCA: 117] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
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Shearer FM, Moss R, McVernon J, Ross JV, McCaw JM. Infectious disease pandemic planning and response: Incorporating decision analysis. PLoS Med 2020;17:e1003018. [PMID: 31917786 PMCID: PMC6952100 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]  Open
44
Lutz CS, Huynh MP, Schroeder M, Anyatonwu S, Dahlgren FS, Danyluk G, Fernandez D, Greene SK, Kipshidze N, Liu L, Mgbere O, McHugh LA, Myers JF, Siniscalchi A, Sullivan AD, West N, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M. Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples. BMC Public Health 2019;19:1659. [PMID: 31823751 PMCID: PMC6902553 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-019-7966-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2019] [Accepted: 11/19/2019] [Indexed: 01/23/2023]  Open
45
Johansson MA, Apfeldorf KM, Dobson S, Devita J, Buczak AL, Baugher B, Moniz LJ, Bagley T, Babin SM, Guven E, Yamana TK, Shaman J, Moschou T, Lothian N, Lane A, Osborne G, Jiang G, Brooks LC, Farrow DC, Hyun S, Tibshirani RJ, Rosenfeld R, Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Lauer SA, Moore SM, Clapham HE, Lowe R, Bailey TC, García-Díez M, Carvalho MS, Rodó X, Sardar T, Paul R, Ray EL, Sakrejda K, Brown AC, Meng X, Osoba O, Vardavas R, Manheim D, Moore M, Rao DM, Porco TC, Ackley S, Liu F, Worden L, Convertino M, Liu Y, Reddy A, Ortiz E, Rivero J, Brito H, Juarrero A, Johnson LR, Gramacy RB, Cohen JM, Mordecai EA, Murdock CC, Rohr JR, Ryan SJ, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Weikel DP, Jutla A, Khan R, Poultney M, Colwell RR, Rivera-García B, Barker CM, Bell JE, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Forshey BM, Trtanj J, Asher J, Clay M, Margolis HS, Hebbeler AM, George D, Chretien JP. An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019;116:24268-24274. [PMID: 31712420 PMCID: PMC6883829 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1909865116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]  Open
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Rangarajan P, Mody SK, Marathe M. Forecasting dengue and influenza incidences using a sparse representation of Google trends, electronic health records, and time series data. PLoS Comput Biol 2019;15:e1007518. [PMID: 31751346 PMCID: PMC6894887 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2019] [Revised: 12/05/2019] [Accepted: 10/29/2019] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]  Open
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Baltrusaitis K, Vespignani A, Rosenfeld R, Gray J, Raymond D, Santillana M. Differences in Regional Patterns of Influenza Activity Across Surveillance Systems in the United States: Comparative Evaluation. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2019;5:e13403. [PMID: 31579019 PMCID: PMC6777281 DOI: 10.2196/13403] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2019] [Revised: 07/02/2019] [Accepted: 07/19/2019] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]  Open
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George DB, Taylor W, Shaman J, Rivers C, Paul B, O'Toole T, Johansson MA, Hirschman L, Biggerstaff M, Asher J, Reich NG. Technology to advance infectious disease forecasting for outbreak management. Nat Commun 2019;10:3932. [PMID: 31477707 PMCID: PMC6718692 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11901-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2019] [Accepted: 08/07/2019] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]  Open
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Soliman M, Lyubchich V, Gel YR. Complementing the power of deep learning with statistical model fusion: Probabilistic forecasting of influenza in Dallas County, Texas, USA. Epidemics 2019;28:100345. [PMID: 31182294 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.05.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2018] [Revised: 03/08/2019] [Accepted: 05/06/2019] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]  Open
50
Kim J, Ahn I. Weekly ILI patient ratio change prediction using news articles with support vector machine. BMC Bioinformatics 2019;20:259. [PMID: 31109286 PMCID: PMC6528302 DOI: 10.1186/s12859-019-2894-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2019] [Accepted: 05/10/2019] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]  Open
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