Sex differences in healthy life expectancy among nonagenarians: A multistate survival model using data from the Vitality 90+ study

Transitions in intrinsic capacity among community-dwelling older people and their associated factors: a multistate modelling analysis

OBJECTIVES

Trajectory of intrinsic capacity (IC) can be non-linear and discontinuous, which traditional linear models may not be able to handle. This study thus aimed to model the trajectory of IC as transitions between different IC states and examine their associated factors.

METHODS

Longitudinal data from a sample of community-dwelling older people aged 60 years or above (n = 1,588) was analysed. A set of 14 self-reported items representing different domains of IC were administered annually to measure IC at four time points. Based on the number of impaired IC domains (i.e., cognitive, locomotor, vitality, sensory, and psychological), participants at each time point were classified into one of three IC states, namely state 1 (0 impaired domain), state 2 (1-2 impaired domains), and state 3 (3-5 impaired domains). Multistate modelling was used to identify factors associated with the transitions from one state to another.

RESULTS

The mean age of participants was 75.0 years, and 77.4% of them were female. At baseline, 12.4% were in state 1, 51.8% were in state 2, and 35.8% were in state 3. 62.8% of participants experienced at least one transition between states, among which 12% experienced a transition every year. The transitions occurred mostly between adjacent IC states and could take place back and forth. Age, sex, marital status, perceived financial adequacy, number of chronic diseases, and self-rated health were the factors associated with the transitions.

CONCLUSION

Findings may serve as a valuable reference for guiding future policies to optimize IC and promote healthy ageing using a person-centred approach.

Understanding the interplay between APO E polymorphism and cognition in the Italian oldest old: results from the "Mugello study"

INTRODUCTION

Recent data suggest that the deleterious effect on general health and cognition of ε4 allele of Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) observed in the elderly population, may attenuate in extreme aging. This study aimed to describe the ApoE genotype distribution and its relationship with cognition in a group of nonagenarians living in the Mugello area, Italy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Cognition was evaluated using the Mini-Mental-State-Examination (MMSE). DNA was extracted from blood samples to determine ApoE genotyping. Participants were classified into three ApoE groups (ε2, ε3, ε4). Logistic and linear regression models were created, to assess the relationship between ApoE genotype group and dementia diagnosis and cognitive performance, respectively.

RESULTS

169 subjects were included. ApoE ε3 was the most prevalent genotype (76.3%). Dementia prevalence was 26.6% and it was not associated with the presence of ApoE ε4. Participants of ε4 group were significantly more likely to have lower cognitive performances than ε2 and ε3, independently of a dementia diagnosis.

DISCUSSION

Results support that ApoE genotype no longer plays a role in the health condition of the oldest old, however, an interaction is detectable between ApoE polymorphism and cognitive performances at this extreme age.

The long and the short of it: Salivary telomere length as a candidate biomarker for hypertension and age-related changes in blood pressure

Hypertension becomes more prevalent with increasing age. Telomere length (TL) has been proposed as a candidate biomarker and can be accessibly extracted from saliva. However, clarity is needed to evaluate the suitability of using TL as a predictor in such instances. This study investigated salivary TL in a cohort of older adults from the 2008 Health and Retirement Study (n = 3329; F: 58%, mean age: 69.4, SD: 10.3 years) to examine any associations with blood pressure (BP). A Bayesian robust regression model was fit using weakly informative priors to predict the effects of TL with age, sex, systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), and treatment status. There were small effects of treatment (β: -0.07, 95% CrI [-0.33, 0.19], pd: 71.91%) and sex (β: -0.10, 95% CrI [-0.27, 0.07], pd: >86.78%). Population effects showed a reduction of 0.01 log2 units in TL with each year of advancing age (95% CrI [-0.01, -0.00]). Conditional posterior predictions suggest that females, and treated individuals, experience greater change in TL with increasing age. Bayes R2 was ~2%. TL declines with increasing age, differs between sexes, and appears to be influenced by antihypertensive drugs. Overall, all effects were weak. The data do not currently support the suitability of salivary TL as a biomarker to predict or understand any age-related changes in BP.

Estimation of the population, death, and quality of life in Shaanxi Province, western China: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Measuring the health of the population is of great significance to the development of a region. We aimed to estimate the population, probability of death, and quality of life in western China.

METHODS

We calculated the age-specific mortality rate and prevalence rate of diseases and injuries using the Full Population Database and the Home Page of Inpatient Medical Record. We used multiple interpolation methods to insert missing information from the death data and the model of Kannisto to adjust the mortality rate for elderly individuals. The age-specific prevalence rate of diseases and injuries was adjusted according to the standard ratio of age and methods of equal proportional allocation. Life expectancy was calculated by a life table, and the quality of life was estimated using the Sullivan method.

RESULTS

The total population continued to increase in 2015 to 2019 in the Shaanxi Province, China. The mortality rate of children under five has improved, and the mortality rate of people over 65 is decreasing year by year. Life expectancy increased from 74.66 years in 2015 to 77.19 years in 2019. Even with the total risk of disease and injury, the health-adjusted life expectancy increased by 1.90 years within 5 years, and the number of unhealthy years significantly improved. Health-adjusted life expectancy increased by 1.75 years when only considered the ten major disease systems (tumors; endocrinology, nutrition and metabolism; mental and behavioral disorders; nervous system; sensory diseases; circulatory system; respiratory system; digestive system; genitourinary system; musculoskeletal system and connective tissue), and the number of unhealthy years increased slightly.

CONCLUSIONS

In the past five years, Shaanxi Province has made progress in improving life expectancy and controlling the development of chronic diseases. It is necessary to take specific preventive measures and improve the quality of basic public health services.

Sex/gender-related differences in inflammaging

Geroscience puts mechanisms of aging as a driver of the most common age-related diseases and dysfunctions. Under this perspective, addressing the basic mechanisms of aging will produce a better understanding than addressing each disease pathophysiology individually. Worldwide, despite greater functional impairment, life expectancy is higher in women than in men. Gender differences in the prevalence of multimorbidity lead mandatory to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying gender-related differences in multimorbidity patterns and disability-free life expectancy. Extensive literature suggested that inflammaging is at the crossroad of aging and age-related diseases. In this review, we highlight the main evidence on sex/gender differences in the mechanisms that foster inflammaging, i.e. the age-dependent triggering of innate immunity, modifications of adaptive immunity, and accrual of senescent cells, underpinning some biomarkers of inflammaging that show sex-related differences. In the framework of the "gender medicine perspective", we will also discuss how sex/gender differences in inflammaging can affect sex differences in COVID-19 severe outcomes.

Cohort profile: The Vitality 90+ Study-a cohort study on health and living conditions of the oldest old in Tampere, Finland

PURPOSE

Vitality 90+ is an ongoing population-based study with repeated cross-sectional data collections. The study was designed to examine trends in health, functioning, living conditions, quality of life and care needs among the oldest old in Finland.

PARTICIPANTS

Nine mailed surveys have been conducted in the city of Tampere between 1995 and 2018. The first three surveys in 1995, 1996 and 1998 included all community-dwelling individuals aged 90 years or older; and the following six surveys in 2001, 2003, 2007, 2010, 2014 and 2018 covered all individuals in Tampere regardless of their living arrangements. In total, the surveys have included 5935 participants (8840 observations). Around 80% of the participants have been women. The participants' age range has been between 90 and 107 years.

FINDINGS TO DATE

The surveys have consistently asked the same questions over time, covering basic sociodemographic factors, morbidity, functioning, self-rated health (SRH), living arrangements, social relations, quality of life, care needs and providers of care. Survey data have been linked with national register data on health and social service use, mortality and medication. The main findings regarding the time trends show an increase in the proportion of people independent in activities of daily living and mobility. Along with improved functioning, the number of chronic conditions has increased, and SRH has shown a tendency to decline. In addition, we have found increasing occupational class inequalities in functioning and SRH over time.

FUTURE PLANS

The next round of data collection will be completed by the end of 2022. The Vitality 90+ Study welcomes research collaborations that fall within the general aims of the project. The research data 1995-2014 are archived at the Finnish Social Science Data Archive and the data for years 2018 and 2022 will be archived in 2023.

Trends over two decades in life expectancy with complex health problems among older Swedes: implications for the provision of integrated health care and social care

BACKGROUND

Due to population aging, it is essential to examine to what extent rises in life expectancy (LE) consist of healthy or unhealthy years. Most health expectancy studies have been based on single health measures and have shown divergent trends. We used a multi-domain indicator, complex health problems (CHP), indicative of the need for integrated medical and social care, to investigate how LE with and without CHP developed in Sweden between 1992 and 2011. We also addressed whether individuals with CHP more commonly lived in the community in 2011 compared to earlier years.

METHODS

CHP were defined as having severe problems in at least two of three health domains related to the need for medical and/or social care: symptoms/diseases, cognition/communication, and mobility. The Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD), a nationally representative survey of the Swedish population aged ≥ 77 years with waves in 1992, 2002 and 2011 (n≈2000), was used to estimate the prevalence of CHP. Age- and gender-specific death rates were obtained from the Human Mortality Database. The Sullivan method was deployed to calculate the remaining life expectancy with and without CHP. The estimates were decomposed to calculate the contribution of changes from morbidity and mortality to the overall trends in LE without CHP.

RESULTS

Between 1992 and 2011, both total LE (+ 1.69 years [95% CI 1.56;1.83] and LE without CHP (+ 0.84 years [-0,87;2.55]) at age 77 increased for men, whereas LE at age 77 increased for women (+ 1.33 [1.21;1.47]) but not LE without CHP (-0.06 years [-1.39;1.26]). When decomposing the trend, we found that the increase in LE with CHP was mainly driven by an increase in the prevalence of CHP. Among individuals with CHP the proportion residing in care homes was lower in 2011 (37%) compared to 2002 (58%) and 1992 (53%).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings, that an increasing number of older people are expected to live more years with CHP, and increasingly live in the community, point towards a challenge for individuals and families, as well as for society in financing and organizing coordinated and coherent medical and social services.

Premorbid functional status as an outcome predictor in intensive care patients aged over 85 years

BACKGROUND

Poor premorbid functional status (PFS) is associated with mortality after intensive care unit (ICU) admission in patients aged 80 years or older. In the subgroup of very old ICU patients, the ability to recover from critical illness varies irrespective of age. To assess the predictive ability of PFS also among the patients aged 85 or older we set out the current study.

METHODS

In this nationwide observational registry study based on the Finnish Intensive Care Consortium database, we analysed data of patients aged 85 years or over treated in ICUs between May 2012 and December 2015. We defined PFS as good for patients who had been independent in activities of daily living (ADL) and able to climb stairs and as poor for those who were dependent on help or unable to climb stairs. To assess patients' functional outcome one year after ICU admission, we created a functional status score (FSS) based on how many out of five physical activities (getting out of bed, moving indoors, dressing, climbing stairs, and walking 400 m) the patient could manage. We also assessed the patients' ability to return to their previous type of accommodation.

RESULTS

Overall, 2037 (3.3% of all adult ICU patients) patients were 85 years old or older. The average age of the study population was 87 years. Data on PFS were available for 1446 (71.0%) patients (good for 48.8% and poor for 51.2%). The one-year mortalities of patients with good and those with poor PFS were 29.2% and 50.1%, respectively, p < 0.001. Poor PFS increased the probability of death within 12 months, adjusted odds ratio (OR), 2.15; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.68-2.76, p < 0.001. For 69.5% of survivors, the FSS one year after ICU admission was unchanged or higher than their premorbid FSS and 84.2% of patients living at home before ICU admission still lived at home.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor PFS doubled the odds of death within one year. For most survivors, functional status was comparable to the premorbid status.

Role of motor function and lung function in pathways to ageing and decline

Background

Extensive research has investigated the association between age changes in various domains, including lung function and motor function. However, a few analyses have tested models that incorporate bidirectional longitudinal influences between lung and motor function to test the temporal chain of events in the disability process. Dual change score models (DCSM) assist with identification of leading indicators of change by leveraging longitudinal data to examine the extent to which changes in one variable influence subsequent changes in a second variable, and vice versa.

Aims

The purpose of the current-analysis study was to apply DCSM to data from the Swedish Adoption/Twin Study of ageing to examine the nature of the longitudinal relationship between motor functioning and lung function.

Methods

Three motor functioning factors were created from 20 performance measures, including measures of balance, flexibility, and fine motor skills. Peak expiratory flow measured lung function. Participants were 829 adults aged 50–88 at the first of 9 waves of testing covering a 27-year follow-up period; 80% participated in at least three waves.

Results

Model comparisons indicated that decline in lung function preceded and contributed to subsequent decline in motor function.

Discussion

Combined with previous results, these results suggest that declining lung function results in increasing difficulties in motor function, which contribute to subsequent declines in multiple domains.

Conclusion

Understanding the cascade of events that can lead to dependence can help in the development of interventions targeted early in the disablement process.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s40520-020-01494-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Life expectancy and active life expectancy by disability status in older U.S. adults

Objectives

The Medicare Health Outcome Survey (HOS) is the largest longitudinal survey of the U.S. community-dwelling elderly population. This study estimated total life expectancy, active life expectancy (ALE), and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) by disability status among HOS participants.

Methods

Data were from the Medicare HOS Cohort 15 (baseline 2012, follow-up 2014). We included respondents aged ≥ 65 years (n = 164,597). Participants’ disability status was assessed based on the following six activities of daily living (ADL): bathing, dressing, eating, getting in or out of chairs, walking, and using the toilet. The multi-state models were used to estimate life expectancy, ALE, and DFLE by participants’ baseline disability status and age.

Results

Persons who had higher-level ADL limitations had a shorter life expectancy, ALE, and DFLE. Also persons with disability had greater expected life years with disability than those with no limitations and those with mild limitations. For example, among 65-year old respondents with no limitations, mild limitations, and disability, life expectancy was 19.9, 18.6, and 17.1 years, respectively; ALE was 14.0, 9.5, and 7.2 years, respectively; DFLE was 17.3, 15.2, and 11.4 years, respectively; and expected years with disability was 2.6, 3.4, and 5.7 years, respectively.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated that greater levels of disability adversely impact life expectancy, ALE, DFLE, and expected number of years with a disability among U.S. older adults. Understanding levels of disability, and how these may change over time, would enhance health care quality and planning services related to home care and housing in this community-dwelling population.

COVID-19 mortality in Lombardy: the vulnerability of the oldest old and the resilience of male centenarians

Italy was the first European nation to be affected by COVID-19. The biggest cluster of cases occurred in Lombardy, the most populous Italian region, and elderly men were the population hit in the hardest way. Besides its high infectivity, COVID-19 causes a severe cytokine storm and old people, especially those with comorbidities, appear to be the most vulnerable, presumably in connection to inflammaging. In centenarians inflammaging is much lower than predicted by their chronological age and females, presenting survival advantage in almost all centenarian populations, outnumber males, a phenomenon particularly evident in Northern Italy. Within this scenario, we wondered if: a) the COVID-19 mortality in centenarians was lower than that in people aged between 50 and 80 and b) the mortality from COVID-19 in nonagenarians and centenarians highlighted gender differences.

We checked COVID-19-related vulnerability/mortality at the peak of infection (March 2020), using data on total deaths (i.e. not only confirmed COVID-19 cases). Our conclusion is that excess mortality increases steadily up to very old ages and at the same time men older than 90 years become relatively more resilient than age-matched females.

Trends of Physical Functioning, Morbidity, and Disability-Free Life Expectancy Among the Oldest Old: Six Repeated Cross-Sectional Surveys Between 2001 and 2018 in the Vitality 90+ Study

BACKGROUND

It remains unclear whether increasing longevity is accompanied by a compression or expansion of poor health and disability. We examined trends of physical functioning and morbidity in a population aged 90 and older, and disease- and disability-free life expectancy (LE) at age 90 between 2001 and 2018 in Finland's third most populated city.

METHODS

We used survey data from the Vitality 90+ Study, which comprises a series of six repeated mailed surveys (7,590 observations). Information on mortality came from Statistics Finland. We examined trends of functioning (activities of daily living [ADL] and mobility) and cardiovascular and dementia morbidity using age-adjusted generalized estimating equation models stratified by sex. In addition, age-, sex-, and period-specific health expectancies were calculated using Sullivan's method.

RESULTS

Over time, functioning improved, especially, in women, and morbidity increased in men. From 2001 to 2018, LE at age 90 increased by 5.3 months for men and 6.4 months for women. LE without ADL disability increased by 5.0 months for men and 8.4 months for women, and LE without mobility disability by 6.0 months for men and 4.4 months for women. LE without cardiovascular and dementia morbidity decreased for men (2.6 months) and increased for women (1.9 months).

CONCLUSIONS

In relative terms, we found a compression of disability for both sexes and an expansion of morbidity for men. Although the trends overall are rather positive, the increase in absolute morbidity and, to some extent, in disability will inevitably mean increasing care needs with population aging.

Self-Rated Healthy Life Expectancy Changes in Jiangxi Province of China by Gender and Urban-Rural Differences, 2013-2018

Background: Globalization has brought about rapid economic and technological development, and life expectancy (LE) is constantly increasing. However, it is not clear whether an increase in LE will result in an increase in healthy life expectancy (HLE). This study evaluates trends in the self-rated healthy life expectancy (SRHLE) of residents aged 15 and older in Jiangxi Province of China from 2013 to 2018 and analyzes gender differences and urban-rural differences. This study provides a basis for the formulation of relevant public health policies. Methods: Based on two National Health Services Survey databases of Jiangxi in 2013 and 2018 as well as infant mortality rates and under-5 mortality rates from the Health Commission of Jiangxi, the Sullivan method was used to calculate SRHLE. The changes in SRHLE were decomposed into health and mortality effects using the decomposition method. Results: SRHLE decreased from 56.55 to 55.54 years and from 60.00 to 57.87 years for men and women aged 15 from 2013 to 2018, respectively. The SRHLE of women aged 15 was 3.45 and 2.34 years longer than that of men in 2013 and 2018, respectively. The SRHLE of urban men aged 15 was 2.9 and 4.46 years longer than that of rural men in 2013 and 2018, respectively, and that of urban women aged 15 was 3.28 and 5.57 years longer than that of rural women. Conclusions: The decreased SRHLE indicated that the self-rated health (SRH) status of residents in Jiangxi has worsened, and it provided evidence for the expansion of morbidity, mainly due to the increased prevalence of chronic diseases and the improvement in residents' health awareness. Policy efforts are necessary to control the increased morbidity of chronic diseases and reduce gender and urban-rural differences in the quantity and quality of years lived.

Perceived risk of institutionalization, hospitalization, and death in oldest old primary care patients

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to analyze the accuracy and predictive ability of the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC) scored by general practitioners (GPs) in a sample of primary care patients aged 80+ with perceived mental health concerns.

METHOD

GPs ranked the perceived risk of the three adverse outcomes (hospitalization, institutionalization and death) at 1 year in a five Likert scale (RISC score), where 1 is the lowest risk and 5 is the highest. Follow up contacts were conducted after 1 year of assessment in order to collect data on the three outcomes.

RESULTS

The 1-year proportion of institutionalization, hospitalization and death were 12.1 %, 25.2 % and 19.0 % respectively. Based upon the sensitivity and specificity from the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, we found an optimal cut-off point of ≥4 for the RISC. The RISC had fair accuracy for 1-year risk of institutionalization (Area Under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.75, 95% CI 0.43-0.68) and hospitalization (AUC = 0.65, 95% CI 0.52-0.78), but not for death (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI 0.43-0.68).

CONCLUSIONS

The RISC as a short global subjective assessment is to be considered a reliable tool for use by GPs. Our results showed that RISC seems to be a good instrument to triage very old people at risk for institutionalization but with poor accuracy at predicting hospitalization and limited predictive ability for death, suggesting further research and caution on this instrument's use.

Estimation of life expectancies using continuous-time multi-state models

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

There is increasing interest in multi-state modelling of health-related stochastic processes. Given a fitted multi-state model with one death state, it is possible to estimate state-specific and marginal life expectancies. This paper introduces methods and new software for computing these expectancies.

METHODS

The definition of state-specific life expectancy given current age is an extension of mean survival in standard survival analysis. The computation involves the estimated parameters of a fitted multi-state model, and numerical integration. The new R package elect provides user-friendly functions to do the computation in the R software.

RESULTS

The estimation of life expectancies is explained and illustrated using the elect package. Functions are presented to explore the data, to estimate the life expectancies, and to present results.

CONCLUSIONS

State-specific life expectancies provide a communicable representation of health-related processes. The availability and explanation of the elect package will help researchers to compute life expectancies and to present their findings in an assessable way.