A dynamic population model to investigate effects of climate on geographic range and seasonality of the tick Ixodes scapularis

The effect of fluralaner treatment of small mammals on the endemic cycle of Borrelia burgdorferi in a natural environment

Among approaches aimed at reducing Lyme disease risk in the environment, those targeting reservoirs of Borrelia burgdorferi Johnson are promising because they have the potential to reduce both the density of questing Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidea) ticks and the prevalence of B. burgdorferi in the tick population. In this 4-yr field study, we treated a population of wild small mammals with 2 densities of fluralaner baits and investigated the effect of the treatment on 3 parameters of the endemic cycle of B. burgdorferi: (i) the prevalence of infected Peromyscus mice (PIM), (ii) the density of questing nymphs (DON), and (iii) the prevalence of infected questing nymphs (NIP). We demonstrated that fluralaner baiting is effective at reducing tick infestation of Peromyscus mice, the main reservoir of B. burgdorferi in central and northeastern North America, in the laboratory and the field. Results from this study showed a significant decrease in B. burgdorferi infection in mice (odds ratio: 0.37 [CI95: 0.17 to 0.83]). A reduction in the DON between 45.4% [CI95: 22.4 to 61.6] and 62.7% [CI95: 45.9 to 74.2] occurred in treated area when compared with control areas. No significant effect was reported on the NIP. These results confirm the hypothesis that fluralaner baits have an effect on B. burgdorferi endemic cycle, with the potential to reduce the density of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks in the environment. Further studies performed in various habitats and public health intervention contexts are needed to refine and operationalize this approach for reducing Lyme disease risk in the environment.

Isolation of Rickettsia heilongjiangensis (Strain AH-19) from Haemaphysalis longicornis on a Wild Hedgehog in Anhui Province, China

Background: Spotted fever group rickettsioses, caused by rickettsiae of the spotted fever group, pose a significant zoonotic threat to public health. In endemic areas of Anhui Province, China, the ecology and transmission dynamics of these pathogens remain under investigation. Methods: We isolated a rickettsial strain from Haemaphysalis longicornis ticks collected from a wild hedgehog in the Dabie Mountain area. Molecular identification and phylogenetic analysis were employed to confirm the strain. Pathological examinations of the hedgehog's tissues were conducted to assess the potential impact of the infection. Results: The isolated strain was identified as R. heilongjiangensis strain AH-19. Pathological examination revealed significant tissue alterations, including cellular vacuolization, necrosis, and disarray of tissue architecture. It remains uncertain whether these changes were directly attributable to the rickettsial infection or other factors. Conclusions: The identification of R. heilongjiangensis strain AH-19 in H. longicornis suggests that hedgehogs may serve as reservoir hosts in the Dabie Mountain area.Further research is needed to clarify their role in the ecology and epidemiology of this pathogen, which could inform future public health strategies.

Lime for Lyme: Treatment of Leaf Litter with Dolomitic Lime Powder Impairs Activity of Immature Ixodes scapularis Ticks

Background: Tick-borne diseases are an emerging threat to public health throughout the temperate world, leading to a growing field of research aimed at developing and testing intervention strategies for reducing human-tick encounters or prevalence of infection in ticks. Various wide-spectrum chemical acaricides have proven effective for controlling tick populations, but many of these have potential deleterious side-effects on health and the environment. In addition to chemical acaricides, certain compounds such as diatomaceous earth have been shown to have physical acaricidal properties. We hypothesized that dolomitic lime (CaMg(CO3)2, a corrosive, desiccant mineral that is already used extensively in agricultural and forestry contexts to balance the pH of soils, may affect ticks' locomotory activity, habitat position, or survival and that this should manifest as a reduction in the number of questing ticks collected by dragging. Objective: This study aimed to formally assess this hypothesis in a controlled laboratory setting. Methods: We carried out a microcosm experiment, with one control and three treated microcosm trays, each replicating the natural substrate characterizing I. scapularis habitat in northeastern North America. Each tray was infested with 200 living larvae and 50 nymphs, and then treated with 0 (control), 50, 100, or 500 g/m2 of lime powder. Ticks were collected by microdragging 24 and 72 h postliming. Results: Efficacy of liming at reducing the number of collected questing ticks ranged from 87% to 100% for larvae and 0% to 69% for nymphs 24 h postliming and from 91% to 93% for larvae and -47% to 65% for nymphs 72 postliming. Conclusion: This study provides the first experimental evidence of the potential efficacy of liming for impairing activity of questing immature ticks. Given that lime is a low-cost material, that methods for widespread application in deciduous woodlands already exist, and that it has been documented as having a limited negative impact on the environment, further assessment of lime application as a public health risk reduction intervention for tick-borne diseases is warranted.

Modeling platform to assess the effectiveness of single and integrated Ixodes scapularis tick control methods

BACKGROUND

Lyme disease continues to expand in Canada and the USA and no single intervention is likely to curb the epidemic.

METHODS

We propose a platform to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of a subset of Ixodes scapularis tick management approaches. The platform allows us to assess the impact of different control treatments, conducted either individually (single interventions) or in combination (combined efforts), with varying timings and durations. Interventions include three low environmental toxicity measures in differing combinations, namely reductions in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations, broadcast area-application of the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium anisopliae, and fipronil-based rodent-targeted bait boxes. To assess the impact of these control efforts, we calibrated a process-based mathematical model to data collected from residential properties in the town of Redding, southwestern Connecticut, where an integrated tick management program to reduce I.xodes scapularis nymphs was conducted from 2013 through 2016. We estimated parameters mechanistically for each of the three treatments, simulated multiple combinations and timings of interventions, and computed the resulting percent reduction of the nymphal peak and of the area under the phenology curve.

RESULTS

Simulation outputs suggest that the three-treatment combination and the bait boxes-deer reduction combination had the overall highest impacts on suppressing I. scapularis nymphs. All (single or combined) interventions were more efficacious when implemented for a higher number of years. When implemented for at least 4 years, most interventions (except the single application of the entomopathogenic fungus) were predicted to strongly reduce the nymphal peak compared with the no intervention scenario. Finally, we determined the optimal period to apply the entomopathogenic fungus in residential yards, depending on the number of applications.

CONCLUSIONS

Computer simulation is a powerful tool to identify the optimal deployment of individual and combined tick management approaches, which can synergistically contribute to short-to-long-term, costeffective, and sustainable control of tick-borne diseases in integrated tick management (ITM) interventions.

The role of southern red-backed voles, Myodes gapperi, and Peromyscus mice in the enzootic maintenance of Lyme disease spirochetes in North Dakota, USA

Lyme disease has expanded into the Great Plains of the USA. To investigate local enzootic transmission, small mammals were trapped in two forested tracts in northeastern North Dakota during 2012 and 2013. Peromyscus mice and southern red-backed voles, Myodes gapperi, comprised over 90% of all mammals captured. One site was dominated by Peromyscus (79% of 100 mammals captured). At the other site, M. gapperi (59% of 107 mammals captured) was more abundant than Peromyscus (36%). Immature stages of two tick species parasitized small mammals: Dermacentor variabilis and Ixodes scapularis. Larval I. scapularis ectoparasitism was significantly higher on Peromyscus (81% infested; 3.7 larvae per infested mouse) than M. gapperi (47% infested; 2.6 larvae per infested vole) whereas larval and nymphal D. variabilis ectoparasitism were highest on M. gapperi. Over 45% of infested rodents were concurrently infested with both tick species. Testing engorged I. scapularis larvae from Peromyscus (n = 66) and M. gapperi (n = 20) yielded xenopositivity prevalence for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) in these rodents of 6% and 5%, respectively. Progeny of field collected M. gapperi were used to determine host infectivity for a local isolate of B. burgdorferi sensu stricto (s.s.). Five M. gapperi were injected with spirochetes, infested with pathogen-free I. scapularis larvae on days 10, 20, and 40 after infection, and engorged larvae molted to nymphs. Subsamples of nymphs were tested by PCR for B. burgdorferi s. s. DNA and yielded infection rates of 56% (n = 100 nymphs tested), 75% (n = 8) and 64% (n = 31), respectively. The remaining infected nymphs were fed on BALB/c Mus musculus mice and 7 d later, mice were euthanized, and tissues were cultured for B. burgdorferi s.s. Nymphs successfully transmitted spirochetes to 13 of 18 (72%) mice that were exposed to 1-5 infected ticks. Theoretical reservoir potentials - i.e., ability to generate B. burgdorferi infected nymphs - were compared between Peromyscus and M. gapperi. At one site, Peromyscus accounted for nearly all Borrelia-infected nymphs produced (reservoir potential value of 0.935). At the other site, the reservoir potentials for Peromyscus (0.566) and M. gapperi (0.434) were comparable. The difference was attributed to differences in the relative abundance of voles versus mice between sites and the higher level of ectoparasitism by larval I. scapularis on Peromyscus versus M. gapperi at both sites. The southern red-backed vole, M. gapperi, contributes to the enzootic maintenance of Lyme disease spirochetes in North Dakota and possibly other areas where this rodent species is abundant.

Kyasanur Forest Disease: A Comprehensive Review

Vector-borne microbial diseases are ubiquitous, and their management remains elusive. Such diseases with zoonotic potential result in public health challenges requiring additional control and preventive measures. Despite their cosmopolitan presence, vector-borne infections are neglected due to their endemicity in specified geographical regions. The Kyasanur forest disease (KFD) caused by the Kyasanur forest disease virus (KFDV) is among such diseases transmitted through ticks and localized to India. Despite its prevalence, high transmissibility, and potential to cause fatalities, KFDV has not been given the deserved attention by the governments. Further, KFDV circulates in the rural and wild geographical areas threatening infections to people living in these areas with limited access to medical and healthcare. Therefore, physicians, healthcare workers, and the general population need to understand the KFDV and its ecology, epidemiology, transmission, pathogenesis, laboratory diagnosis, and control and prevention as described comprehensively in this review.

How do host population dynamics impact Lyme disease risk dynamics in theoretical models?

Lyme disease is the most common wildlife-to-human transmitted disease reported in North America. The study of this disease requires an understanding of the ecology of the complex communities of ticks and host species involved in harboring and transmitting this disease. Much of the ecology of this system is well understood, such as the life cycle of ticks, and how hosts are able to support tick populations and serve as disease reservoirs, but there is much to be explored about how the population dynamics of different host species and communities impact disease risk to humans. In this study, we construct a stage-structured, empirically-informed model with host dynamics to investigate how host population dynamics can affect disease risk to humans. The model describes a tick population and a simplified community of three host species, where primary nymph host populations are made to fluctuate on an annual basis, as commonly observed in host populations. We tested the model under different environmental conditions to examine the effect of environment on the interactions of host dynamics and disease risk. Results show that allowing for host dynamics in the model reduces mean nymphal infection prevalence and increases the maximum annual prevalence of nymphal infection and the density of infected nymphs. Effects of host dynamics on disease measures of nymphal infection prevalence were nonlinear and patterns in the effect of dynamics on amplitude in nymphal infection prevalence varied across environmental conditions. These results highlight the importance of further study of the effect of community dynamics on disease risk. This will involve the construction of further theoretical models and collection of robust field data to inform these models. With a more complete understanding of disease dynamics we can begin to better determine how to predict and manage disease risk using these models.

IxPopDyMod: an R package to write, run, and analyze tick population and infection dynamics models

Given the increasing prevalence of tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, modeling the population and infection dynamics of tick vectors is an important public health tool. These models have applications for testing the effects of control methods or climate change on tick populations. There is an established history of tick population models, but code for them is rarely shared, especially not in a convenient format for others to modify and use. We present an R package, called IxPopDyMod, intended to function as a flexible and consistent framework for reproducible Ixodidae (hard-bodied ticks) population dynamics models. Here we focus on two key parts of the package: a function to create valid model configurations and a function to run a configured model and return the daily population over time. We provide three examples in appendices: one reproducing an existing Ixodes scapularis population model, one providing a novel Dermacentor albipictus model, and one showing Borrelia burgdorferi infection in ticks. Together these examples show the flexibility of the package to model scenarios of interest to tick researches.

Mapping the distribution of Amblyomma americanum in Georgia, USA

BACKGROUND

Amblyomma americanum, the lone star tick, is an aggressive questing species that harbors several pathogens dangerous to humans in the United States. The Southeast in particular has large numbers of this tick due to the combined suitable climate and habitats throughout the region. No studies have estimated the underlying distribution of the lone star tick across the state of Georgia, a state where it is the dominant species encountered.

METHODS

Ticks were collected by flagging 198 transects of 750 m2 at 43 state parks and wildlife management areas across the state from March to July of 2022. A suite of climate, landscape, and wildlife variables were assembled, and a logistic regression model was used to assess the association between these environmental factors and the presence of lone star ticks and to predict the distribution of these ticks across the state.

RESULTS

A total of 59/198 (30%) transects sampled contained adult or nymph A. americanum, with the majority of transects containing these ticks (54/59, 91.5%) in forested habitats. The presence of A. americanum was associated with elevation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) on January 1, isothermality, temperature seasonality, and precipitation in the wettest quarter. Vast regions of central, eastern, and southern coastal Georgia (57% of the state) were categorized as suitable habitat for the lone star tick.

CONCLUSIONS

This study describes the distribution of the lone star tick across the state of Georgia at a finer scale than the current county-level information available. It identifies specific variables associated with tick presence and provides a map that can be used to target areas for tick prevention messaging and awareness.

Human risk to tick encounters in the southeastern United States estimated with spatial distribution modeling

Expanding geographic distribution and increased populations of ticks has resulted in an upsurge of human-tick encounters in the United States (US), leading to an increase in tickborne disease reporting. Limited knowledge of the broadscale spatial range of tick species is heightened by a rapidly changing environment. Therefore, we partnered with the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture and used passive tick surveillance to better understand spatiotemporal variables associated with foresters encountering three tick species (Amblyomma americanum L., Dermacentor variabilis Say, and Ixodes scapularis L.) in the southeastern US. Eight years (2014-2021) of tick encounter data were used to fit environmental niche and generalized linear models to predict where and when ticks are likely to be encountered. Our results indicate temporal and environmental partitioning of the three species. Ixodes scapularis were more likely to be encountered in the autumn and winter seasons and associated with soil organic matter, vegetation indices, evapotranspiration, temperature, and gross primary productivity. By contrast, A. americanum and D. variabilis were more likely to be encountered in spring and summer seasons and associated with elevation, landcover, temperature, dead belowground biomass, vapor pressure, and precipitation. Regions in the southeast least suitable for encountering ticks included the Blue Ridge, Mississippi Alluvial Plain, and the Southern Florida Coastal Plain, whereas suitable regions included the Interior Plateau, Central Appalachians, Ozark Highlands, Boston Mountains, and the Ouachita Mountains. Spatial and temporal patterns of different tick species can inform outdoorsmen and the public on tick avoidance measures, reduce tick populations by managing suitable tick habitats, and monitoring areas with unsuitable tick habitat for potential missed encounters.

Historical associations and spatiotemporal changes of pathogen presence in ticks in Canada: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Starting in the early 20th century, ticks and their pathogens have been detected during surveillance efforts in Canada. Since then, the geographic spread of tick vectors and tick-borne pathogens has steadily increased in Canada with the establishment of tick and host populations. Sentinel surveillance in Canada primarily focuses on Ixodes scapularis, which is the main vector of Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacterium causing Lyme disease. Other tick-borne pathogens, such as Anaplasma, Babesia, and Rickettsia species, have lower prevalence in Canada, but they are emerging or re-emerging in tick and host populations.

AIMS/MATERIALS & METHODS

Here, we assessed the historical associations between tick vectors, hosts and pathogens and identified spatiotemporal clusters of pathogen presence in ticks in Canada using data extracted from the literature.

RESULTS

Approximately one-third of ticks were infected with a pathogen, and these ticks were feeding primarily on bird and mammal hosts. B. burgdorferi was the most detected pathogen and I. scapularis harboured the greatest number of pathogens. We identified several spatial outliers of high pathogen presence in ticks in addition to five spatiotemporal clusters in southern Canada, all of which have long-established tick populations. Six spatiotemporal clusters of high pathogen presence in ticks were also identified based on surveillance method, with four clusters associated with passive surveillance and two clusters associated with active surveillance.

DISCUSSION

Our review represents the first systematic assessment of the literature that identifies historical associations and spatiotemporal changes in tick-host-pathogen disease systems in Canada over broad spatial and temporal scales.

CONCLUSION

As distinct spatiotemporal clusters were identified based on surveillance method, it is imperative that surveillance efforts employ standardized methods and data reporting to comprehensively assess the presence, spread and risk of tick-borne pathogens in tick and host populations.

Estimating the Incidence and Economic Cost of Lyme Disease Cases in Canada in the 21st Century with Projected Climate Change

BACKGROUND

Lyme disease (LD) is emerging in Canada owing to the range expansion of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis (I. scapularis).

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to estimate future LD incidence in Canada, and economic costs, for the 21st century with projected climate change.

METHODS

Future regions of climatic suitability for I. scapularis were projected from temperature output of the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment regional climate model ensemble using greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Once regions became climatically suitable for ticks, an algorithm derived from tick and LD case surveillance data projected subsequent increasing LD incidence. Three scenarios (optimistic, intermediate, and pessimistic) for maximum incidence at endemicity were selected based on LD surveillance, and underreporting estimates, from the United States. Health care and productivity cost estimates of LD cases were obtained from the literature.

RESULTS

Projected annual LD cases for Canada ranged from 120,000 to > 500,000 by 2050. Variation in incidence was mostly due to the maximum incidence at endemicity selected, with minor contributions from variations among climate models and RCPs. Projected annual costs were substantial, ranging from CA $ 0.5  billion to $ 2.0  billion a year by 2050. There was little difference in projected incidence and economic cost between RCPs, and from 2050 to 2100, because projected climate up to 2050 is similar for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions captured in RCP4.5 does not impact climate before the 2050s) and by 2050 the most densely populated areas of the study region are projected to be climatically suitable for ticks.

CONCLUSIONS

Future incidence and economic costs of LD in Canada are likely to be substantial, but uncertainties remain. Because densely populated areas of Canada are projected to become endemic under conservative climate change scenarios, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is unlikely to provide substantial health co-benefits for LD. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13759.

Lyme Disease Models of Tick-Mouse Dynamics with Seasonal Variation in Births, Deaths, and Tick Feeding

Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States impacting the Northeast and Midwest at the highest rates. Recently, it has become established in southeastern and south-central regions of Canada. In these regions, Lyme disease is caused by Borrelia burgdorferi, which is transmitted to humans by an infected Ixodes scapularis tick. Understanding the parasite-host interaction is critical as the white-footed mouse is one of the most competent reservoir for B. burgdorferi. The cycle of infection is driven by tick larvae feeding on infected mice that molt into infected nymphs and then transmit the disease to another susceptible host such as mice or humans. Lyme disease in humans is generally caused by the bite of an infected nymph. The main aim of this investigation is to study how diapause delays and demographic and seasonal variability in tick births, deaths, and feedings impact the infection dynamics of the tick-mouse cycle. We model tick-mouse dynamics with fixed diapause delays and more realistic Erlang distributed delays through delay and ordinary differential equations (ODEs). To account for demographic and seasonal variability, the ODEs are generalized to a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). The basic reproduction number and parameter sensitivity analysis are computed for the ODEs. The CTMC is used to investigate the probability of Lyme disease emergence when ticks and mice are introduced, a few of which are infected. The probability of disease emergence is highly dependent on the time and the infected species introduced. Infected mice introduced during the summer season result in the highest probability of disease emergence.

Feeding and reproductive parameters of adult female Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) and Amblyomma americanum parasitizing white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus)

White-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmermann) (Artiodactyla: Cervidae) are the main host for adult Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae) (blacklegged tick) and all stages of Amblyomma americanum Linnaeus (Acari: Ixodidae) (lone star tick). However, literature describing the feeding and reproductive parameters of these tick species when feeding on this host is limited. We experimentally infested white-tailed deer with adult pairs of either I. scapularis or A. americanum to improve our understanding of these tick-host relationships. Our study used tick-naïve white-tailed deer and restricted host grooming throughout the infestation. For I. scapularis, the days to repletion (mean ± SE, 6.04 ± 0.07), engorgement weight of replete females (0.20 ± 0.0032 g), duration of oviposition (32 ± 0.45 d), egg mass weight (0.10 ± 0.0027 g), and number of eggs laid per tick (1,803.00 ± 49.00) were recorded. Data from A. americanum were also recorded, including days to repletion (11.00 ± 0.063), engorgement weight of replete females (0.63 ± 0.025 g), duration of oviposition (37.00 ± 1.30 d), egg mass weight (0.34 ± 0.017 g), and number of eggs laid per tick (5,873.00 ± 291.00). These biological parameter data could be used as variables in models (e.g., LYMESIM 2.0) to determine how white-tailed deer influence I. scapularis and A. americanum populations in nature, and to evaluate the protective efficacy of tick-antigen-based antitick vaccines.

Evaluation of the association between climate warming and the spread and proliferation of Ixodes scapularis in northern states in the Eastern United States

Ixodes scapularis (the blacklegged tick) is widely distributed in forested areas across the eastern United States. The public health impact of I. scapularis is greatest in the north, where nymphal stage ticks commonly bite humans and serve as primary vectors for multiple human pathogens. There were dramatic increases in the tick's distribution and abundance over the last half-century in the northern part of the eastern US, and climate warming is commonly mentioned as a primary driver for these changes. In this review, we summarize the evidence for the observed spread and proliferation of I. scapularis being driven by climate warming. Although laboratory and small-scale field studies have provided insights into how temperature and humidity impact survival and reproduction of I. scapularis, using these associations to predict broad-scale distribution and abundance patterns is more challenging. Numerous efforts have been undertaken to model the distribution and abundance of I. scapularis at state, regional, and global scales based on climate and landscape variables, but outcomes have been ambiguous. Across the models, the functional relationships between seasonal or annual measures of heat, cold, precipitation, or humidity and tick presence or abundance were inconsistent. The contribution of climate relative to landscape variables was poorly defined. Over the last half-century, climate warming occurred in parallel with spread and population increase of the white-tailed deer, the most important reproductive host for I. scapularis adults, in the northern part of the eastern US. There is strong evidence for white-tailed deer playing a key role to facilitate spread and proliferation of I. scapularis in the US over the last century. However, due to a lack of spatially and temporally congruent data, climate, landscape, and host variables are rarely included in the same models, thus limiting the ability to evaluate their relative contributions or interactions in defining the geographic range and abundance patterns of ticks. We conclude that the role of climate change as a key driver for geographic expansion and population increase of I. scapularis in the northern part of the eastern US over the last half-century remains uncertain.

Self-reported tick exposure as an indicator of Lyme disease risk in an endemic region of Quebec, Canada

BACKGROUND

Lyme disease (LD) and other tick-borne diseases are emerging across Canada. Spatial and temporal LD risk is typically estimated using acarological surveillance and reported human cases, the former not considering human behavior leading to tick exposure and the latter occurring after infection.

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective was to explore, at the census subdivision level (CSD), the associations of self-reported tick exposure, alternative risk indicators (predicted tick density, eTick submissions, public health risk level), and ecological variables (Ixodes scapularis habitat suitability index and cumulative degree days > 0 °C) with incidence proportion of LD. A secondary objective was to explore which of these predictor variables were associated with self-reported tick exposure at the CSD level.

METHODS

Self-reported tick exposure was measured in a cross-sectional populational health survey conducted in 2018, among 10,790 respondents living in 116 CSDs of the Estrie region, Quebec, Canada. The number of reported LD cases per CSD in 2018 was obtained from the public health department. Generalized linear mixed-effets models accounting for spatial autocorrelation were built to fulfill the objectives.

RESULTS

Self-reported tick exposure ranged from 0.0 % to 61.5 % (median 8.9 %) and reported LD incidence rates ranged from 0 to 324 cases per 100,000 person-years, per CSD. A positive association was found between self-reported tick exposure and LD incidence proportion (ß = 0.08, CI = 0.04,0.11, p < 0.0001). The best-fit model included public health risk level (AIC: 144.2), followed by predicted tick density, ecological variables, self-reported tick exposure and eTick submissions (AIC: 158.4, 158.4, 160.4 and 170.1 respectively). Predicted tick density was the only significant predictor of self-reported tick exposure (ß = 0.83, CI = 0.16,1.50, p = 0.02).

DISCUSSION

This proof-of-concept study explores self-reported tick exposure as a potential indicator of LD risk using populational survey data. This approach may offer a low-cost and simple tool for evaluating LD risk and deserves further evaluation.

Ocular Manifestations of Flavivirus Infections

Flaviviruses are a group of positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses predominantly transmitted by arthropods (mainly mosquitoes) that cause severe endemic infections and epidemics on a global scale. They represent a major cause of systemic morbidity and death and are expanding worldwide. Among this group, dengue fever, the West Nile virus, yellow fever, Japanese Encephalitis, and, recently, the Zika virus have been linked to a spectrum of ocular manifestations. These manifestations encompass subconjunctival hemorrhages and conjunctivitis, anterior and posterior uveitis (inclusive of vitritis, chorioretinitis, and retinal vasculitis), maculopathy, retinal hemorrhages, and optic neuritis. Clinical diagnosis of these infectious diseases is primarily based on epidemiological data, history, systemic symptoms and signs, and the pattern of ocular involvement. Diagnosis confirmation relies on laboratory testing, including RT-PCR and serological testing. Ocular involvement typically follows a self-limited course but can result in irreversible visual impairment. Effective treatments of flavivirus infections are currently unavailable. Prevention remains the mainstay for arthropod vector and zoonotic disease control. Effective vaccines are available only for the yellow fever virus, dengue virus, and Japanese Encephalitis virus. This review comprehensively summarizes the current knowledge regarding the ophthalmic manifestations of the foremost flavivirus-associated human diseases.

Epidemiology and clinical manifestations of reported Lyme disease cases: Data from the Canadian Lyme disease enhanced surveillance system

Lyme disease cases reported in seven Canadian provinces from 2009 to 2019 through the Lyme Disease Enhanced Surveillance System are described herein by demographic, geography, time and season. The proportion of males was greater than females. Bimodal peaks in incidence were observed in children and older adults (≥60 years of age) for all clinical signs except cardiac manifestations, which were more evenly distributed across age groups. Proportions of disease stages varied between provinces: Atlantic provinces reported mainly early Lyme disease, while Ontario reported equal proportions of early and late-stage Lyme disease. Early Lyme disease cases were mainly reported between May through November, whereas late Lyme disease were reported in December through April. Increased awareness over time may have contributed to a decrease in the proportion of cases reporting late disseminated Lyme disease. These analyses help better describe clinical features of reported Lyme disease cases in Canada.

Female ticks (Ixodes scapularis) infected with Borrelia burgdorferi have increased overwintering survival, with implications for tick population growth

The tick, Ixodes scapularis, vectors pathogens such as Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacterium that causes Lyme disease. Over the last few decades I. scapularis has expanded its range, introducing a novel health threat into these areas. Warming temperatures appear to be one cause of its range expansion to the north. However, other factors are also involved. We show that unfed adult female ticks infected with B. burgdorferi have greater overwintering survival than uninfected female ticks. Locally collected adult female ticks were placed in individual microcosms and allowed to overwinter in both forest and dune grass environments. In the spring we collected the ticks and tested both dead and living ticks for B. burgdorferi DNA. Infected ticks had greater overwintering survival compared with uninfected ticks every winter for three consecutive winters in both forest and dune grass environments. We discuss the most plausible explanations for this result. The increased winter survival of adult female ticks could enhance tick population growth. Our results suggest that, in addition to climate change, B. burgdorferi infection itself may be promoting the northern range expansion of I. scapularis. Our study highlights how pathogens could work synergistically with climate change to promote host range expansion.

The known unknowns of Powassan virus ecology

Powassan virus (POWV; Family: Flaviviridae, Genus: Flavivirus) is the sole North American member of the tick-borne encephalitis sero-complex. While associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality, POWV has historically been of little public health concern due to low incidence rates. However, over the last 20 yr, incidence rates have increased highlighting the growing epidemiological threat. Currently, there are no vaccines or therapeutics with tick habitat reduction, acaricide application, and public awareness programs being our primary means of intervention. The effectiveness of these control strategies is dependent on having a sound understanding of the virus's ecology. In this Forum, we review what is currently known about POWV ecology, identify gaps in our knowledge, and discuss prevailing and alternative hypotheses about transmission dynamics, reservoir hosts, and spatial focality.

Risky business: human-related data is lacking from Lyme disease risk models

Used as a communicative tool for risk management, risk maps provide a service to the public, conveying information that can raise risk awareness and encourage mitigation. Several studies have utilized risk maps to determine risks associated with the distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi, the causal agent of Lyme disease in North America and Europe, as this zoonotic disease can lead to severe symptoms. This literature review focused on the use of risk maps to model distributions of B. burgdorferi and its vector, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis), in North America to compare variables used to predict these spatial models. Data were compiled from the existing literature to determine which ecological, environmental, and anthropic (i.e., human focused) variables past research has considered influential to the risk level for Lyme disease. The frequency of these variables was examined and analyzed via a non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis to compare different map elements that may categorize the risk models performed. Environmental variables were found to be the most frequently used in risk spatial models, particularly temperature. It was found that there was a significantly dissimilar distribution of variables used within map elements across studies: Map Type, Map Distributions, and Map Scale. Within these map elements, few anthropic variables were considered, particularly in studies that modeled future risk, despite the objective of these models directly or indirectly focusing on public health intervention. Without including human-related factors considering these variables within risk map models, it is difficult to determine how reliable these risk maps truly are. Future researchers may be persuaded to improve disease risk models by taking this into consideration.

Mechanistic movement models to predict geographic range expansions of ticks and tick-borne pathogens: Case studies with Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum in eastern North America

The geographic range of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is expanding northward from the United States into southern Canada, and studies suggest that the lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, will follow suit. These tick species are vectors for many zoonotic pathogens, and their northward range expansion presents a serious threat to public health. Climate change (particularly increasing temperature) has been identified as an important driver permitting northward range expansion of blacklegged ticks, but the impacts of host movement, which is essential to tick dispersal into new climatically suitable regions, have received limited investigation. Here, a mechanistic movement model was applied to landscapes of eastern North America to explore 1) relationships between multiple ecological drivers and the speed of the northward invasion of blacklegged ticks infected with the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, and 2) its capacity to simulate the northward range expansion of infected blacklegged ticks and uninfected lone star ticks under theoretical scenarios of increasing temperature. Our results suggest that the attraction of migratory birds (long-distance tick dispersal hosts) to resource-rich areas during their spring migration and the mate-finding Allee effect in tick population dynamics are key drivers for the spread of infected blacklegged ticks. The modeled increases in temperature extended the climatically suitable areas of Canada for infected blacklegged ticks and uninfected lone star ticks towards higher latitudes by up to 31% and 1%, respectively, and with an average predicted speed of the range expansion reaching 61 km/year and 23 km/year, respectively. Differences in the projected spatial distribution patterns of these tick species were due to differences in climate envelopes of tick populations, as well as the availability and attractiveness of suitable habitats for migratory birds. Our results indicate that the northward invasion process of lone star ticks is primarily driven by local dispersal of resident terrestrial hosts, whereas that of blacklegged ticks is governed by long-distance migratory bird dispersal. The results also suggest that mechanistic movement models provide a powerful approach for predicting tick-borne disease risk patterns under complex scenarios of climate, socioeconomic and land use/land cover changes.

Infectious Disease Sensitivity to Climate and Other Driver-Pressure Changes: Research Effort and Gaps for Lyme Disease and Cryptosporidiosis

Climate sensitivity of infectious diseases is discussed in many studies. A quantitative basis for distinguishing and predicting the disease impacts of climate and other environmental and anthropogenic driver-pressure changes, however, is often lacking. To assess research effort and identify possible key gaps that can guide further research, we here apply a scoping review approach to two widespread infectious diseases: Lyme disease (LD) as a vector-borne and cryptosporidiosis as a water-borne disease. Based on the emerging publication data, we further structure and quantitatively assess the driver-pressure foci and interlinkages considered in the published research so far. This shows important research gaps for the roles of rarely investigated water-related and socioeconomic factors for LD, and land-related factors for cryptosporidiosis. For both diseases, the interactions of host and parasite communities with climate and other driver-pressure factors are understudied, as are also important world regions relative to the disease geographies; in particular, Asia and Africa emerge as main geographic gaps for LD and cryptosporidiosis research, respectively. The scoping approach developed and gaps identified in this study should be useful for further assessment and guidance of research on infectious disease sensitivity to climate and other environmental and anthropogenic changes around the world.

The Threat of Climate Change on Tick-Borne Infections: Rising Trend of Infections and Geographic Distribution of Climate Risk Factors Associated With Ticks

Ticks transmit a wide range of pathogens. The spread of tick-borne infections is an emerging, yet often overlooked, threat in the context of climate change. The infections have rapidly increased over the past few years in South Korea despite no significant changes in socioeconomic circumstances. We investigated the impact of climate change on the surge of tick-borne infections and identified potential disease hot spots at a resolution of 5 km by 5 km. A composite index was constructed based on multiple climate and environmental indicators and compared with the observed tick-borne infections. The surge of tick-borne episodes corresponded to the rising trend of the index over time. High-risk areas identified by the index can be used to prioritize locations for disease prevention activities. Monitoring climate risk factors may provide an opportunity to predict the spread of the infections in advance.

Precipitation as a Possible Risk Factor for Development of Lyme Nephritis in Dogs

To determine whether increased precipitation in the months before diagnosis is predictive of Lyme nephritis in dogs, a symmetrical bidirectional case-crossover study was performed on 87 dogs with presumptive Lyme nephritis. Cases were geographically linked to the nearest precipitation monitoring station, and monthly total precipitation for the 4 mo preceding diagnosis was compared to monthly total precipitation 1 yr before and 1 yr after. Breeds affected included Labrador retrievers (n = 31), mixed-breed dogs (n = 19), and golden retrievers (n = 10), with a possible seasonal bimodal peak in spring and fall. In age-adjusted analysis, each additional inch of precipitation 3 mo before diagnosis was associated with an increase in the odds of developing Lyme nephritis (odds ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.25). The results suggest that increased precipitation is a possible risk factor for Lyme nephritis in dogs. These findings may provide useful information for the accurate diagnosis of dogs with protein-losing nephropathy and may guide future studies of risk factors for Lyme nephritis. The methodology employed here reinforces the concept that case-crossover designs have utility beyond acute exposures and outcomes and offer an attractive alternative for studies in companion animals.

A coupled algebraic-delay differential system modeling tick-host interactive behavioural dynamics and multi-stability

We propose a coupled system of delay-algebraic equations to describe tick attaching and host grooming behaviors in the tick-host interface, and use the model to understand how this tick-host interaction impacts the tick population dynamics. We consider two critical state variables, the loads of feeding ticks on host and the engorged ticks on the ground for ticks in a particular development stage (nymphal stage) and show that the model as a coupled system of delay differential equation and an algebraic (integral) equation may have rich structures of equilibrium states, leading to multi-stability. We perform asymptotic analyses and use the implicit function theorem to characterize the stability of these equilibrium states, and show that bi-stability and quadri-stability occur naturally in several combinations of tick attaching and host grooming behaviours. In particular, we show that in the case when host grooming is triggered by the tick biting, the system will have three stable equilibrium states including the extinction state, and two unstable equilibrium states. In addition, the two nontrivial stable equilibrium states correspond to a low attachment rate and a large number of feeding ticks, and a high attachment rate and a small number of feeding ticks, respectively.

Molecular Investigation of Tick-Borne Haemoparasites Isolated from Indigenous Zebu Cattle in the Tanga Region, Tanzania

Tick-borne diseases (TBDs) are a major hindrance to livestock production in pastoral communities of Africa. Although information on tick-borne infections is necessary for setting up control measures, this information is limited in the pastoral communities of Tanzania. Therefore, this study aimed to provide an overview of the tick-borne infections in the indigenous cattle of Tanzania. A total of 250 blood samples were collected from the indigenous zebu cattle in the Tanga region, Tanzania. Then, we conducted a molecular survey using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and gene sequencing to detect and identify the selected tick-borne pathogens. The PCR was conducted using assays, based on Theileria spp. (18S rRNA), Theileria parva (p104), Theileria mutans and T. taurotragi (V4 region of the 18S rRNA), Babesia bigemina (RAP-1a), B. bovis (SBP-2), Anaplasma marginale (heat shock protein groEL) and Ehrlichia ruminantium (pCS20). The PCR screening revealed an overall infection rate of (120/250, 48%) for T. mutans, (64/250, 25.6%) for T. parva, (52/250, 20.8%) for T. taurotragi, (33/250, 13.2%) for B. bigemina and (81/250, 32.4%) for A. marginale. Co-infections of up to four pathogens were revealed in 44.8% of the cattle samples. A sequence analysis indicated that T. parva p104 and A. marginale groEL genes were conserved among the sampled animals with sequence identity values of 98.92−100% and 99.88−100%, respectively. Moreover, the B. bigemina RAP-1a gene and the V4 region of the 18S rRNA of T. mutans genes were diverse among the sampled cattle, indicating the sequence identity values of 99.27−100% and 22.45−60.77%, respectively. The phylogenetic analyses revealed that the T. parva (p104) and A. marginale (groEL) gene sequences of this study were clustered in the same clade. In contrast, the B. bigemina (RAP-1a) and the T. mutans V4 region of the 18S rRNA gene sequences appeared in the different clades. This study provides important basement data for understanding the epidemiology of tick-borne diseases and will serve as a scientific basis for planning future control strategies in the study area.

The environment, the tick, and the pathogen - It is an ensemble

Ixodes scapularis is one of the predominant vectors of Borrelia burgdorferi, the agent of Lyme disease in the USA. The geographic distribution of I. scapularis, endemic to the northeastern and northcentral USA, is expanding as far south as Georgia and Texas, and northwards into Canada and poses an impending public health problem. The prevalence and spread of tick-borne diseases are influenced by the interplay of multiple factors including microbiological, ecological, and environmental. Molecular studies have focused on interactions between the tick-host and pathogen/s that determine the success of pathogen acquisition by the tick and transmission to the mammalian host. In this review we draw attention to additional critical environmental factors that impact tick biology and tick-pathogen interactions. With a focus on B. burgdorferi we highlight the interplay of abiotic factors such as temperature and humidity as well as biotic factors such as environmental microbiota that ticks are exposed to during their on- and off-host phases on tick, and infection prevalence. A molecular understanding of this ensemble of interactions will be essential to gain new insights into the biology of tick-pathogen interactions and to develop new approaches to control ticks and tick transmission of B. burgdorferi, the agent of Lyme disease.

An ecological approach to predict areas with established populations of Ixodes scapularis in Quebec, Canada

Public health management of Lyme disease (LD) is a dynamic challenge in Canada. Climate warming is driving the northward expansion of suitable habitat for the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. Information about tick population establishment is used to inform the risk of LD but is challenged by sampling biases from surveillance data. Misclassifying areas as having no established tick population underestimates the LD risk classification. We used a logistic regression model at the municipal level to predict the probability of I. scapularis population establishment based on passive tick surveillance data during the period of 2010-2017 in southern Quebec. We tested for the effect of abiotic and biotic factors hypothesized to influence tick biology and ecology. Additional variables controlled for sampling biases in the passive surveillance data. In our final selected model, tick population establishment was positively associated with annual cumulative degree-days > 0°C, precipitation and deer density, and negatively associated with coniferous and mixed forest types. Sampling biases from passive tick surveillance were controlled for using municipal population size and public health instructions on tick submissions. The model performed well as indicated by an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92, sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 81%. Our model enables prediction of I. scapularis population establishment in areas which lack data from passive tick surveillance and may improve the sensitivity of LD risk categorization in these areas. A more sensitive system of LD risk classification is important for increasing awareness and use of protective measures employed against ticks, and decreasing the morbidity associated with LD.

Risk of tick-borne pathogen spillover into urban yards in New York City

BACKGROUND

The incidence of tick-borne disease has increased dramatically in recent decades, with urban areas increasingly recognized as high-risk environments for exposure to infected ticks. Green spaces may play a key role in facilitating the invasion of ticks, hosts and pathogens into residential areas, particularly where they connect residential yards with larger natural areas (e.g. parks). However, the factors mediating tick distribution across heterogeneous urban landscapes remain poorly characterized.

METHODS

Using generalized linear models in a multimodel inference framework, we determined the residential yard- and local landscape-level features associated with the presence of three tick species of current and growing public health importance in residential yards across Staten Island, a borough of New York City, in the state of New York, USA.

RESULTS

The amount and configuration of canopy cover immediately surrounding residential yards was found to strongly predict the presence of Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum, but not that of Haemaphysalis longicornis. Within yards, we found a protective effect of fencing against I. scapularis and A. americanum, but not against H. longicornis. For all species, the presence of log and brush piles strongly increased the odds of finding ticks in yards.

CONCLUSIONS

The results highlight a considerable risk of tick exposure in residential yards in Staten Island and identify both yard- and landscape-level features associated with their distribution. In particular, the significance of log and brush piles for all three species supports recommendations for yard management as a means of reducing contact with ticks.

Range Expansion of Ixodes scapularis and Borrelia burgdorferi in Ontario, Canada, from 2017 to 2019

Range expansion of the vector tick species, Ixodes scapularis, has been detected in Ontario over the last two decades. This has led to elevated risk of exposure to Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacterium that causes Lyme disease. Previous research using passive surveillance data suggests that I. scapularis populations establish before the establishment of B. burgdorferi transmission cycles, with a delay of ∼5 years. The objectives of this research were to examine spatial and temporal patterns of I. scapularis and its pathogens from 2017 to 2019 in southwestern, eastern, and central Ontario, and to explore patterns of B. burgdorferi invasion. Over the 3-year study period, drag sampling was conducted at 48 sites across Ontario. I. scapularis ticks were tested for B. burgdorferi, Borrelia miyamotoi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Babesia species, including Babesia microti and Babesia odocoilei, and Powassan virus. I. scapularis was detected at 30 sites overall, 22 of which had no history of previous tick detection. B. burgdorferi was detected at nine sites, eight of which tested positive for the first time during this study and five of which had B. burgdorferi detected concurrently with initial tick detection. Tick and pathogen hotspots were identified in eastern Ontario in 2017 and 2018, respectively. These findings provide additional evidence on the range expansion and population establishment of I. scapularis in Ontario and help generate hypotheses on the invasion of B. burgdorferi in Ontario. Ongoing public health surveillance is critical to monitor changes in I. scapularis and its pathogens in Ontario.

Modeling the invasion and establishment of a tick-borne pathogen

We develop a discrete-time tick–host–pathogen model to describe the spread of a disease in a hard-bodied tick species. This model incorporates the developmental stages for a tick, the dependence of the tick life-cycle and disease transmission on host availability, and three sources of pathogen transmission. We first establish the global dynamics of the disease-free system. We then apply the model to two pathogens, Borellia burgdorferi and Anaplasma phagocytophila, using Ixodes ricinus as the tick species to study properties of the invasion and establishment of a disease numerically. In particular, we consider the basic reproduction number, which determines whether a disease can invade the tick-host system, as well as disease prevalence and time to establishment in the case of successful disease invasion. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we calculate the means of each of these disease metrics and their elasticities with respect to various model parameters. We find that increased tick survival may help enable disease invasion, decrease the time to disease establishment, and increase disease prevalence once established. In contrast, though disease invasion is sensitive to tick-to-host transmission and tick searching efficiencies, neither disease prevalence nor time to disease establishment is sensitive to these parameters. These differences emphasize the importance of developing approaches, such as the one highlighted here, that can be used to study disease dynamics beyond just pathogen invasion, including transitional and long-term dynamics.

Current and future distribution of Ixodes scapularis ticks in Québec: Field validation of a predictive model

The incidence of Lyme disease is increasing in Québec and is closely linked to the distribution of Ixodes scapularis ticks. A time-to-establishment model developed in 2012 by Leighton and colleagues predicted the year of tick population establishment for each municipality in eastern Canada. To validate if this model correctly predicted tick distribution in Québec, predicted tick establishment was compared to field data from active tick surveillance (2010-2018) using two criteria: i) the detection of at least one tick and ii) the detection of the three questing stages of the tick. The speed of tick establishment and the increase in the exposed human population by 2100 were predicted with the time-to-establishment model. Field observations were consistent with model predictions. Ticks were detected on average 3 years after the predicted year. The probability of tick detection is significantly higher after the predicted year than before (61% vs 27% of collections). The trend was similar for the detection of three tick stages (16% vs 9% of collections). The average speed of tick range expansion was estimated by the model to be 18 km/year in Québec, with 90% of the human population exposed by 2027. The validation of the time-to-establishment model using field data confirmed that it could be used to project I. scapularis range expansion in Québec, and consequently the increase in Lyme disease risk over the coming decades. This will help public health authorities anticipate and adapt preventive measures, especially in areas not yet affected by Lyme disease.

Effects of Climate on the Variation in Abundance of Three Tick Species in Illinois

The range of ticks in North America has been steadily increasing likely, in part, due to climate change. Along with it, there has been a rise in cases of tick-borne disease. Among those medically important tick species of particular concern are Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae), Dermacentor variabilis Say (Acari: Ixodidae), and Amblyomma americanum Linneaus (Acari: Ixodidae). The aim of this study was to determine if climate factors explain existing differences in abundance of the three aforementioned tick species between two climatically different regions of Illinois (Central and Southern), and if climate variables impact each species differently. We used both zero-inflated regression approaches and Bayesian network analyses to assess relationships among environmental variables and tick abundance. Results suggested that the maximum average temperature and total precipitation are associated with differential impact on species abundance and that this difference varied by region. Results also reinforced a differential level of resistance to desiccation among these tick species. Our findings help to further define risk periods of tick exposure for the general public, and reinforce the importance of responding to each tick species differently.

Long-term transmission dynamics of tick-borne diseases involving seasonal variation and co-feeding transmission

Co-feeding is a mode of pathogen transmission for a wide range of tick-borne diseases where susceptible ticks can acquire infection from co-feeding with infected ticks on the same hosts. The significance of this transmission pathway is determined by the co-occurrence of ticks at different stages in the same season. Taking this into account, we formulate a system of differential equations with tick population dynamics and pathogen transmission dynamics highly regulated by the seasonal temperature variations. We examine the global dynamics of the model systems, and show that the two important ecological and epidemiological basic reproduction numbers can be used to fully characterize the long-term dynamics, and we link these two important threshold values to efficacy of co-feeding transmission.

Microclimate conditions alter Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) overwinter survival across climate gradients in Maine, United States

The incidence and geographic range of vector-borne diseases have been expanding in recent decades, attributed in part to global climate change. Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis), the primary vector for multiple tick-borne pathogens in North America, are spreading rapidly beyond their historic post-colonial range and are thought to be constrained mainly by winter temperature at northern latitudes. Our research explored whether winter climate currently limits the distribution of blacklegged ticks and the pathogens they transmit in Maine, U.S.A., by contributing to overwinter mortality of nymphs. We experimentally tested tick overwinter survival across large-scale temperature and snowfall gradients and assessed factors contributing to winter mortality in locations where blacklegged tick populations are currently established and locations where the blacklegged tick has not yet been detected. We also tested the hypothesis that insulation in the tick microhabitat (i.e., by leaf litter and snowpack) can facilitate winter survival of blacklegged tick nymphs despite inhospitable ambient conditions. Overwinter survival was not significantly different in coastal southern compared to coastal and inland northern Maine, most likely due to sufficient snowpack that protected against low ambient temperatures at high latitudes. Snow cover and leaf litter contributed significantly to overwinter survival at sites in both southern and northern Maine. To further assess whether the current distribution of blacklegged ticks in Maine aligns with patterns of overwinter survival, we systematically searched for and collected ticks at seven sites along latitudinal and coastal-inland climate gradients across the state. We found higher densities of blacklegged ticks in coastal southern Maine (90.2 ticks/1000 m²) than inland central Maine (17.8 ticks/1000 m²) and no blacklegged ticks in inland northern Maine. Our results suggest that overwinter survival is not the sole constraint on the blacklegged tick distribution even under extremely cold ambient conditions and additional mechanisms may limit the continued northward expansion of ticks.

Climate change impacts on ticks and tick-borne infections

Evidence climate change is impacting ticks and tick-borne infections is generally lacking. This is primarily because, in most parts of the world, there are no long-term and replicated data on the distribution and abundance of tick populations, and the prevalence and incidence of tick-borne infections. Notable exceptions exist, as in Canada where the northeastern advance of Ixodes scapularis and Lyme borreliosis in the USA prompted the establishment of tick and associated disease surveillance. As a result, the past 30 years recorded the encroachment and spread of I. scapularis and Lyme borreliosis across much of Canada concomitant with a 2-3 °C increase in land surface temperature. A similar northerly advance of I. ricinus [and associated Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE)] has been recorded in northern Europe together with expansion of this species’ range to higher altitudes in Central Europe and the Greater Alpine Region, again concomitant with rising temperatures. Changes in tick species composition are being recorded, with increases in more heat tolerant phenotypes (such as Rhipicephalus microplus in Africa), while exotic species, such as Haemaphysalis longicornis and Hyalomma marginatum, are becoming established in the USA and Southern Europe, respectively. In the next 50 years these trends are likely to continue, whereas, at the southern extremities of temperate species’ ranges, diseases such as Lyme borreliosis and TBE may become less prevalent. Where socioeconomic conditions link livestock with livelihoods, as in Pakistan and much of Africa, a One Health approach is needed to tackling ticks and tick-borne infections under the increasing challenges presented by climate change.

The role of host phenology for parasite transmission

Phenology is a fundamental determinant of species distributions, abundances, and interactions. In host–parasite interactions, host phenology can affect parasite fitness due to the temporal constraints it imposes on host contact rates. However, it remains unclear how parasite transmission is shaped by the wide range of phenological patterns observed in nature. We develop a mathematical model of the Lyme disease system to study the consequences of differential tick developmental-stage phenology for the transmission of B. burgdorferi. Incorporating seasonal tick activity can increase B. burgdorferi fitness compared to continuous tick activity but can also prevent transmission completely. B. burgdorferi fitness is greatest when the activity period of the infectious nymphal stage slightly precedes the larval activity period. Surprisingly, B. burgdorferi is eradicated if the larval activity period begins long after the end of nymphal activity due to a feedback with mouse population dynamics. These results highlight the importance of phenology, a common driver of species interactions, for the fitness of a parasite.

Predicting the Potential Global Distribution of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) under Near Current and Future Climatic Conditions, Using the Maximum Entropy Model

Amblyomma americanum (the lone star tick) is a pathogen vector, mainly from eastern North America, that bites humans. With global integration and climate change, some ticks that are currently confined to a certain place may begin to spread out; some reports have shown that they are undergoing rapid range expansion. The difference in the potential geographic distribution of A. americanum under current and future climatic conditions is dependent on environment variables such as temperature and precipitation, which can affect their survival. In this study, we used a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential geographic distribution of A. americanum. The MaxEnt model was calibrated at the native range of A. americanum using occurrence data and the current climatic conditions. Seven WorldClim climatic variables were selected by the jackknife method and tested in MaxEnt using different combinations of model feature class functions and regularization multiplier values. The best model was chosen based on the omission rate and the lowest Akaike information criterion. The resulting model was then projected onto the global scale using the current and future climate conditions modeled under four greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Monitoring Risk: Tick and Borrelia burgdorferi Public Participatory Surveillance in the Canadian Maritimes, 2012-2020

Ticks are vectors of many diseases, including Lyme disease (Ld). Lyme disease is an emerging disease in Canada caused by infection with the Lyme borreliosis (Lb) members of the Borrelia genus of spirochaete bacteria, of which Borrelia&nbsp;burgdorferi is regionally the most prevalent. The primary tick vector in central and eastern Canada, Ixodes scapularis, is increasing in numbers and in the geographical extent of established populations. This study documents the distribution of ticks recovered by passive surveillance, and their B.&nbsp;burgdorferi infection prevalence, in three Canadian Maritime provinces from 2012-2020. These regions represent areas in which tick populations are widely established, establishing, and considered non-established. Using a community science approach by partnering with veterinarians and members of the public, we collected over 7000 ticks from the 3 provinces. The three species found most often on companion animals and humans were I. scapularis (76.9%), Ixodes cookei (10.4%) and Dermacentor variabilis (8.9%). The most common hosts were dogs (60.5%), cats (16.8%) and humans (17.6%). As is typical of passive surveillance tick collections, the majority of ticks recovered were adult females; for I. scapularis 90.2%, 5.3%, 3.9% and 0.6% of the total of 5630 ticks recovered for this species were adult females, adult males, nymphs and larvae, respectively. The majority of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks were I. scapularis, as expected. Borrelia infection prevalence in I scapularis was higher in Nova Scotia (20.9%), the province with the most endemic regions, than New Brunswick (14.1%) and Prince Edward Island (9.1%), provinces thought to have established and non-established tick populations, respectively. The province-wide Borrelia infection prevalence generally increased in these latter tow provinces over the course of the study. The host did not have a significant effect on B. burgdorferi infection prevalence; I. scapularis ticks from dogs, cats, humans was, 13.3% (n = 3622), 15.6% (n = 817), 17.9% (n = 730), respectively. No I. scapularis larvae were found infected (n = 33) but B. burgdorferi was detected in 14.8% of both adults (n = 5140) and nymphs (n = 215). The incidence of B. burgdorferi infection also did not differ by engorgement status 15.0% (n = 367), 15.1% (n = 3101) and 14.4% (n = 1958) of non-engorged, engorged and highly engorged ticks, respectively, were infected. In New Brunswick, at the advancing front of tick population establishment, the province-wide infection percentages generally increased over the nine-year study period and all health district regions showed increased tick recoveries and a trend of increased percentages of Borrelia-infected ticks over the course of the study. Within New Brunswick, tick recoveries but not Borrelia infection prevalence were significantly different from endemic and non-endemic regions, suggesting cryptic endemic regions existed prior to their designation as a risk area. Over the 9 years of the study, tick recoveries increased in New Brunswick, the primary study region, and I. scapularis recoveries spread northwards and along the coast, most but not all new sites of recoveries were predicted by climate-based models, indicating that ongoing tick surveillance is necessary to accurately detect all areas of risk. Comparison of tick recoveries and public health risk areas indicates a lag in identification of risk areas. Accurate and timely information on tick distribution and the incidence of Borrelia and other infections are essential for keeping the public informed of risk and to support disease prevention behaviors.

Possible Effects of Climate Change on Ixodid Ticks and the Pathogens They Transmit: Predictions and Observations

The global climate has been changing over the last century due to greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to change over this century, accelerating without effective global efforts to reduce emissions. Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBDs) are inherently climate-sensitive due to the sensitivity of tick lifecycles to climate. Key direct climate and weather sensitivities include survival of individual ticks, and the duration of development and host-seeking activity of ticks. These sensitivities mean that in some regions a warming climate may increase tick survival, shorten life-cycles and lengthen the duration of tick activity seasons. Indirect effects of climate change on host communities may, with changes in tick abundance, facilitate enhanced transmission of tick-borne pathogens. High temperatures, and extreme weather events (heat, cold, and flooding) are anticipated with climate change, and these may reduce tick survival and pathogen transmission in some locations. Studies of the possible effects of climate change on TTBDs to date generally project poleward range expansion of geographical ranges (with possible contraction of ranges away from the increasingly hot tropics), upslope elevational range spread in mountainous regions, and increased abundance of ticks in many current endemic regions. However, relatively few studies, using long-term (multi-decade) observations, provide evidence of recent range changes of tick populations that could be attributed to recent climate change. Further integrated 'One Health' observational and modeling studies are needed to detect changes in TTBD occurrence, attribute them to climate change, and to develop predictive models of public- and animal-health needs to plan for TTBD emergence.

The Contribution of Wildlife Hosts to the Rise of Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases in North America

Wildlife vertebrate hosts are integral to enzootic cycles of tick-borne pathogens, and in some cases have played key roles in the recent rise of ticks and tick-borne diseases in North America. In this forum article, we highlight roles that wildlife hosts play in the maintenance and transmission of zoonotic, companion animal, livestock, and wildlife tick-borne pathogens. We begin by illustrating how wildlife contribute directly and indirectly to the increase and geographic expansion of ticks and their associated pathogens. Wildlife provide blood meals for tick growth and reproduction; serve as pathogen reservoirs; and can disperse ticks and pathogens-either through natural movement (e.g., avian migration) or through human-facilitated movement (e.g., wildlife translocations and trade). We then discuss opportunities to manage tick-borne disease through actions directed at wildlife hosts. To conclude, we highlight key gaps in our understanding of the ecology of tick-host interactions, emphasizing that wildlife host communities are themselves a very dynamic component of tick-pathogen-host systems and therefore complicate management of tick-borne diseases, and should be taken into account when considering host-targeted approaches. Effective management of wildlife to reduce tick-borne disease risk further requires consideration of the 'human dimensions' of wildlife management. This includes understanding the public's diverse views and values about wildlife and wildlife impacts-including the perceived role of wildlife in fostering tick-borne diseases. Public health agencies should capitalize on the expertise of wildlife agencies when developing strategies to reduce tick-borne disease risks.

Models for Studying the Distribution of Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases in Animals: A Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis with a Focus on Africa

Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBD) are constraints to the development of livestock and induce potential human health problems. The worldwide distribution of ticks is not homogenous. Some places are ecologically suitable for ticks but they are not introduced in these areas yet. The absence or low density of hosts is a factor affecting the dissemination of the parasite. To understand the process of introduction and spread of TTBD in different areas, and forecast their presence, scientists developed different models (e.g., predictive models and explicative models). This study aimed to identify models developed by researchers to analyze the TTBD distribution and to assess the performance of these various models with a meta-analysis. A literature search was implemented with PRISMA protocol in two online databases (Scopus and PubMed). The selected articles were classified according to country, type of models and the objective of the modeling. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy available data of these models were used to evaluate their performance using a meta-analysis. One hundred studies were identified in which seven tick genera were modeled, with Ixodes the most frequently modeled. Additionally, 13 genera of tick-borne pathogens were also modeled, with Borrelia the most frequently modeled. Twenty-three different models were identified and the most frequently used are the generalized linear model representing 26.67% and the maximum entropy model representing 24.17%. A focus on TTBD modeling in Africa showed that, respectively, genus Rhipicephalus and Theileria parva were the most modeled. A meta-analysis on the quality of 20 models revealed that maximum entropy, linear discriminant analysis, and the ecological niche factor analysis models had, respectively, the highest sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve effect size among all the selected models. Modeling TTBD is highly relevant for predicting their distribution and preventing their adverse effect on animal and human health and the economy. Related results of such analyses are useful to build prevention and/or control programs by veterinary and public health authorities.

Resistance to Ticks and the Path to Anti-Tick and Transmission Blocking Vaccines

The medical and veterinary public health importance of ticks and tick-borne pathogens is increasing due to the expansion of the geographic ranges of both ticks and pathogens, increasing tick populations, growing incidence of tick-borne diseases, emerging tick transmitted pathogens, and continued challenges of achieving effective and sustained tick control. The past decades show an increasing interest in the immune-mediated control of tick infestations and pathogen transmission through the use of vaccines. Bovine tick resistance induced by repeated infestations was reported over a century ago. This review addresses the phenomena and immunological underpinning of resistance to tick infestation by livestock and laboratory animals; the scope of tick countermeasures to host immune defenses; and the impact of genomics, functional genomics, and proteomics on dissecting complex tick-host-pathogen interactions. From early studies utilizing tick tissue extracts to salivary gland derived molecules and components of physiologically important pathways in tick gut and other tissues, an increased understanding of these relationships, over time, impacted the evolution of anti-tick vaccine antigen selection. Novel antigens continue to emerge, including increased interest in the tick microbiome. Anti-tick and transmission blocking vaccines targeting pathogen reservoirs have the potential to disrupt enzootic cycles and reduce human, companion, domestic animal, and wildlife exposure to infected ticks.

Larval thermal characteristics of multiple ixodid ticks

Temperature limits the geographic ranges of several tick species. Little is known about the thermal characteristics of these pests outside of a few studies on survival related to thermal tolerance. In this study, thermal tolerance limits, thermal preference, and the impact of temperature on activity levels and metabolic rate were examined in larvae for six species of ixodid ticks. Tolerance of low temperatures ranged from -15 to -24 °C with Dermacentor andersoni surviving the lowest temperatures. High temperature survival ranged from 41 to 47 °C, with Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato having the highest upper lethal limit. Ixodes scapularis showed the lowest survival at both low and high temperatures. Thermal preference temperatures were tested from 0 to 41 °C. The majority of species preferred temperatures between 17 and 22 °C, while Dermacentor variabilis preferred significantly lower temperatures, near 12 °C. Overall activity was measured across a range of temperatures from 10 to 60 °C, and most tick species had the greatest activity near 30 °C. Metabolic rate was the greatest between 30 and 40 °C for all tick species and was relatively stable from 5 to 20 °C. The optimal temperature for tick larvae is likely near the thermal preference for each species, where oxygen consumption is low and activity occurs that will balance questing and conservation of nutrient reserves. In summary, tick species vary greatly in their thermal characteristics, and our results will be critical to predict distribution of these ectoparasites with changing climates.

Evaluation of 2 ELISAs to determine Borrelia burgdorferi seropositivity in horses over a 12-month period

The blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis), which transmits Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease, has undergone rapid range expansion in Ontario. In horses, Lyme disease remains an enigmatic disease, with limited understanding of the pathogenesis and many issues pertaining to selection and interpretation of laboratory tests. We evaluated B. burgdorferi seropositivity in naturally exposed horses over a 12-mo period and compared paired samples with 2 common serologic tests. Serum samples were collected in 2017, ~1 y after initial testing, from a cohort of 22 horses that were seropositive in a 2016 seroprevalence study. Samples were tested using a C6 ELISA and a multiplex ELISA targeting outer surface proteins A, C, and F. 1 y after initial testing, 14 of 22 (64%) horses remained seropositive; 7 (32%) were positive on the multiplex ELISA, 2 (9%) on C6 ELISA, and 5 (23%) on both tests. Repeatability was 100% for the C6 ELISA, and 95% for the multiplex ELISA, with no significant difference between paired sample multiplex titer values. Our results indicate strong intra-test reliability, although further investigation is required to determine the clinical significance of serologic testing.

Dilution and amplification effects in Lyme disease: Modeling the effects of reservoir-incompetent hosts on Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto transmission

The literature on Lyme disease includes a lively debate about the paradoxical role of changing deer populations. A decrease in the number of deer will both (1) reduce the incidence of Lyme disease by decreasing the host populations for ticks and therefore tick populations, and (2) enhance the incidence of Lyme disease by offering fewer reservoir-incompetent hosts for ticks, forcing the vector to choose reservoir-competent, and therefore possibly diseased, hosts to feed on. A review of field studies exploring the net impact of changing deer populations shows mixed results. In this manuscript, we investigate the hypothesis that the balance of these two responses to changing deer populations depends on the relative population sizes of reservoir-competent vs. reservoir-incompetent hosts and the presence of host preference in larval and adult stages. A temperature driven seasonal model of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (cause of Lyme disease) transmission among three host types (reservoir-competent infected and uninfected hosts, and reservoir-incompetent hosts) is constructed as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The model, which produces biologically reasonable results for both the tick vector Ixodes scapularis Say 1921 and the hosts, is used to investigate the effects of reservoir-incompetent host removal on both tick populations and disease prevalence for various relative population sizes of reservoir-competent hosts vs. reservoir-incompetent hosts. In summary, the simulation results show that the model with host preference appears to be more accurate than the one with no host preference. Given these results, we found that removal of adult I. scapularis(Say) hosts is likely to reduce questing nymph populations. At very low levels questing adult abundance may rise with lack of adult hosts. There is a dilution effect at low reservoir-competent host populations and there is an amplification effect at high reservoir-competent host populations.