Effect of deer density on tick infestation of rodents and the hazard of tick-borne encephalitis. II: population and infection models

High habitat richness reduces the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Europe: A multi-scale study

Background

The natural transmission cycle of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus is enhanced by complex interactions between ticks and key hosts strongly connected to habitat characteristics. The diversity of wildlife host species and their relative abundance is known to affect transmission of tick-borne diseases. Therefore, in the current context of global biodiversity loss, we explored the relationship between habitat richness and the pattern of human TBE cases in Europe to assess biodiversity's role in disease risk mitigation.

Methods

We assessed human TBE case distribution across 879 European regions using official epidemiological data reported to The European Surveillance System (TESSy) between 2017 and 2021 from 15 countries. We explored the relationship between TBE presence and the habitat richness index (HRI1) by means of binomial regression. We validated our findings at local scale using data collected between 2017 and 2021 in 227 municipalities located in Trento and Belluno provinces, two known TBE foci in northern Italy.

Findings

Our results showed a significant parabolic effect of HRI on the probability of presence of human TBE cases in the European regions included in our dataset, and a significant, negative effect of HRI on the local presence of TBE in northern Italy. At both spatial scales, TBE risk decreases in areas with higher values of HRI.

Interpretation

To our knowledge, no efforts have yet been made to explore the relationship between biodiversity and TBE risk, probably due to the scarcity of high-resolution, large-scale data about the abundance or density of critical host species. Hence, in this study we considered habitat richness as proxy for vertebrate host diversity. The results suggest that in highly diverse habitats TBE risk decreases. Hence, biodiversity loss could enhance TBE risk for both humans and wildlife. This association is relevant to support the hypothesis that the maintenance of highly diverse ecosystems mitigates disease risk.

Resource selection by New York City deer reveals the effective interface between wildlife, zoonotic hazards and humans

Although the role of host movement in shaping infectious disease dynamics is widely acknowledged, methodological separation between animal movement and disease ecology has prevented researchers from leveraging empirical insights from movement data to advance landscape scale understanding of infectious disease risk. To address this knowledge gap, we examine how movement behaviour and resource utilization by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) determines blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) distribution, which depend on deer for dispersal in a highly fragmented New York City borough. Multi-scale hierarchical resource selection analysis and movement modelling provide insight into how deer's movements contribute to the risk landscape for human exposure to the Lyme disease vector-I. scapularis. We find deer select highly vegetated and accessible residential properties which support blacklegged tick survival. We conclude the distribution of tick-borne disease risk results from the individual resource selection by deer across spatial scales in response to habitat fragmentation and anthropogenic disturbances.

Ecological and environmental factors affecting the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Europe, 2017 to 2021

BackgroundTick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a disease which can lead to severe neurological symptoms, caused by the TBE virus (TBEV). The natural transmission cycle occurs in foci and involves ticks as vectors and several key hosts that act as reservoirs and amplifiers of the infection spread. Recently, the incidence of TBE in Europe has been rising in both endemic and new regions.AimIn this study we want to provide comprehensive understanding of the main ecological and environmental factors that affect TBE spread across Europe.MethodsWe searched available literature on covariates linked with the circulation of TBEV in Europe. We then assessed the best predictors for TBE incidence in 11 European countries by means of statistical regression, using data on human infections provided by the European Surveillance System (TESSy), averaged between 2017 and 2021.ResultsWe retrieved data from 62 full-text articles and identified 31 different covariates associated with TBE occurrence. Finally, we selected eight variables from the best model, including factors linked to vegetation cover, climate, and the presence of tick hosts.DiscussionThe existing literature is heterogeneous, both in study design and covariate types. Here, we summarised and statistically validated the covariates affecting the variability of TBEV across Europe. The analysis of the factors enhancing disease emergence is a fundamental step towards the identification of potential hotspots of viral circulation. Hence, our results can support modelling efforts to estimate the risk of TBEV infections and help decision-makers implement surveillance and prevention campaigns.

No net effect of host density on tick-borne disease hazard due to opposing roles of vector amplification and pathogen dilution

To better understand vector‐borne disease dynamics, knowledge of the ecological interactions between animal hosts, vectors, and pathogens is needed. The effects of hosts on disease hazard depends on their role in driving vector abundance and their ability to transmit pathogens. Theoretically, a host that cannot transmit a pathogen could dilute pathogen prevalence but increase disease hazard if it increases vector population size. In the case of Lyme disease, caused by Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. and vectored by Ixodid ticks, deer may have dual opposing effects on vectors and pathogen: deer drive tick population densities but do not transmit B. burgdorferi s.l. and could thus decrease or increase disease hazard. We aimed to test for the role of deer in shaping Lyme disease hazard by using a wide range of deer densities while taking transmission host abundance into account. We predicted that deer increase nymphal tick abundance while reducing pathogen prevalence. The resulting impact of deer on disease hazard will depend on the relative strengths of these opposing effects. We conducted a cross‐sectional survey across 24 woodlands in Scotland between 2017 and 2019, estimating host (deer, rodents) abundance, questing Ixodes ricinus nymph density, and B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence at each site. As predicted, deer density was positively associated with nymph density and negatively with nymphal infection prevalence. Overall, these two opposite effects canceled each other out: Lyme disease hazard did not vary with increasing deer density. This demonstrates that, across a wide range of deer and rodent densities, the role of deer in amplifying tick densities cancels their effect of reducing pathogen prevalence. We demonstrate how noncompetent host density has little effect on disease hazard even though they reduce pathogen prevalence, because of their role in increasing vector populations. These results have implications for informing disease mitigation strategies, especially through host management.

Ticks on the Run: A Mathematical Model of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF)-Key Factors for Transmission

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a zoonotic disease caused by the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV). Ticks of the genus Hyalomma are the main vectors and represent a reservoir for the virus. CCHF is maintained in nature in an endemic vertebrate-tick-vertebrate cycle. The disease is prevalent in wide geographical areas including Asia, Africa, South-Eastern Europe and the Middle East. It is of great importance for the public health given its occasionally high case/fatality ratio of CCHFV in humans. Climate change and the detection of possible CCHFV vectors in Central Europe suggest that the establishment of the transmission in Central Europe may be possible in future. We have developed a compartment-based nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) system to model the disease transmission cycle including blood sucking ticks, livestock and human. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number R0 shows that decreasing the tick survival time is an efficient method to control the disease. The model supports us in understanding the influence of different model parameters on the spread of CCHFV. Tick-to-tick transmission through co-feeding and the CCHFV circulation through transstadial and transovarial transmission are important factors to sustain the disease cycle. The proposed model dynamics are calibrated through an empirical multi-country analysis and multidimensional plot reveals that the disease-parameter sets of different countries burdened with CCHF are different. This information may help decision makers to select efficient control strategies.

Limited capacity of deer to serve as zooprophylactic hosts for Borrelia burgdorferi in northeastern United States

Because deer are considered to be incompetent reservoirs of the agent of Lyme disease (Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto) in the northeastern U.S., they may serve as zooprophylactic or "dilution" hosts if larvae of the deer tick vector (Ixodes dammini, "northern" clade of Ixodes scapularis) frequently feed on them. To determine whether host-seeking nymphal deer ticks commonly feed on deer as larvae, we used a real time PCR host bloodmeal remnant identification assay to identify the host on which these ticks had fed. Nymphal Lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum) were collected simultaneously in our sites and provided an index of the availability of deer in these sites. At 3 of the 4 sites, Ixodes nymphs had fed as larvae on a variety of hosts, including mice, birds and shrews, but rarely on deer (<6% for all sites); in contrast, Lone star tick nymphs had commonly fed on deer (31-78%). Deer were common larval hosts for Ixodes ticks (39% of bloodmeals) in only one site. The prevalence of B. burgdorferi in host seeking nymphal deer ticks was associated with mouse-fed ticks (p=0.007) but there was no association with deer-fed ticks (p=0.5). The diversity and prevalence of hosts that were identified differed between deer ticks and Lone star ticks that were collected simultaneously, demonstrating that there is no confounding of host bloodmeal identification by contaminating environmental DNA (eDNA). We conclude that deer were not common hosts for larval deer ticks, thus limiting their zooprophylactic role in our sites. Importance: Because deer are incompetent reservoirs for B. burgdorferi, their presence may modulate the force of enzootic transmission by serving as zoophrophylatic or "dilution" hosts. Such an effect would depend on the extent to which subadult deer ticks feed on other hosts. We used bloodmeal analysis on nymphal deer ticks to identify the host upon which larvae had fed. We found that Lone star ticks collected at the same time as deer ticks commonly fed on deer, but deer ticks did not. We conclude that deer are not a preferred host for larval deer ticks and thus are not necessarily zooprophylactic.

Experimental evidence for opposing effects of high deer density on tick-borne pathogen prevalence and hazard

BACKGROUND

Identifying the mechanisms driving disease risk is challenging for multi-host pathogens, such as Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.), the tick-borne bacteria causing Lyme disease. Deer are tick reproduction hosts but do not transmit B. burgdorferi s.l., whereas rodents and birds are competent transmission hosts. Here, we use a long-term deer exclosure experiment to test three mechanisms for how high deer density might shape B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence in ticks: increased prevalence due to higher larval tick densities facilitating high transmission on rodents (M1); alternatively, reduced B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence because more larval ticks feed on deer rather than transmission-competent rodents (dilution effect) (M2), potentially due to ecological cascades, whereby higher deer grazing pressure shortens vegetation which decreases rodent abundance thus reducing transmission (M3).

METHODS

In a large enclosure where red deer stags were kept at high density (35.5 deer km^-2), we used an experimental design consisting of eight plots of 0.23 ha, four of which were fenced to simulate the absence of deer and four that were accessible to deer. In each plot we measured the density of questing nymphs and nymphal infection prevalence in spring, summer and autumn, and quantified vegetation height and density, and small mammal abundance.

RESULTS

Prevalence tended to be lower, though not conclusively so, in high deer density plots compared to exclosures (predicted prevalence of 1.0% vs 2.2%), suggesting that the dilution and cascade mechanisms might outweigh the increased opportunities for transmission mechanism. Presence of deer at high density led to shorter vegetation and fewer rodents, consistent with an ecological cascade. However, Lyme disease hazard (density of infected I. ricinus nymphs) was five times higher in high deer density plots due to tick density being 18 times higher.

CONCLUSIONS

High densities of tick reproduction hosts such as deer can drive up vector-borne disease hazard, despite the potential to simultaneously reduce pathogen prevalence. This has implications for environmental pathogen management and for deer management, although the impact of intermediate deer densities now needs testing.

Models for Studying the Distribution of Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases in Animals: A Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis with a Focus on Africa

Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBD) are constraints to the development of livestock and induce potential human health problems. The worldwide distribution of ticks is not homogenous. Some places are ecologically suitable for ticks but they are not introduced in these areas yet. The absence or low density of hosts is a factor affecting the dissemination of the parasite. To understand the process of introduction and spread of TTBD in different areas, and forecast their presence, scientists developed different models (e.g., predictive models and explicative models). This study aimed to identify models developed by researchers to analyze the TTBD distribution and to assess the performance of these various models with a meta-analysis. A literature search was implemented with PRISMA protocol in two online databases (Scopus and PubMed). The selected articles were classified according to country, type of models and the objective of the modeling. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy available data of these models were used to evaluate their performance using a meta-analysis. One hundred studies were identified in which seven tick genera were modeled, with Ixodes the most frequently modeled. Additionally, 13 genera of tick-borne pathogens were also modeled, with Borrelia the most frequently modeled. Twenty-three different models were identified and the most frequently used are the generalized linear model representing 26.67% and the maximum entropy model representing 24.17%. A focus on TTBD modeling in Africa showed that, respectively, genus Rhipicephalus and Theileria parva were the most modeled. A meta-analysis on the quality of 20 models revealed that maximum entropy, linear discriminant analysis, and the ecological niche factor analysis models had, respectively, the highest sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve effect size among all the selected models. Modeling TTBD is highly relevant for predicting their distribution and preventing their adverse effect on animal and human health and the economy. Related results of such analyses are useful to build prevention and/or control programs by veterinary and public health authorities.

Reviewing the ecological evidence base for management of emerging tropical zoonoses: Kyasanur Forest Disease in India as a case study

Zoonoses disproportionately affect tropical communities and are associated with human modification and use of ecosystems. Effective management is hampered by poor ecological understanding of disease transmission and often focuses on human vaccination or treatment. Better ecological understanding of multi-vector and multi-host transmission, social and environmental factors altering human exposure, might enable a broader suite of management options. Options may include "ecological interventions" that target vectors or hosts and require good knowledge of underlying transmission processes, which may be more effective, economical, and long lasting than conventional approaches. New frameworks identify the hierarchical series of barriers that a pathogen needs to overcome before human spillover occurs and demonstrate how ecological interventions may strengthen these barriers and complement human-focused disease control. We extend these frameworks for vector-borne zoonoses, focusing on Kyasanur Forest Disease Virus (KFDV), a tick-borne, neglected zoonosis affecting poor forest communities in India, involving complex communities of tick and host species. We identify the hierarchical barriers to pathogen transmission targeted by existing management. We show that existing interventions mainly focus on human barriers (via personal protection and vaccination) or at barriers relating to Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD) vectors (tick control on cattle and at the sites of host (monkey) deaths). We review the validity of existing management guidance for KFD through literature review and interviews with disease managers. Efficacy of interventions was difficult to quantify due to poor empirical understanding of KFDV-vector-host ecology, particularly the role of cattle and monkeys in the disease transmission cycle. Cattle are hypothesised to amplify tick populations. Monkeys may act as sentinels of human infection or are hypothesised to act as amplifying hosts for KFDV, but the spatial scale of risk arising from ticks infected via monkeys versus small mammal reservoirs is unclear. We identified 19 urgent research priorities for refinement of current management strategies or development of ecological interventions targeting vectors and host barriers to prevent disease spillover in the future.

Identification of Host Bloodmeal Source in Ornithodoros turicata Dugès (Ixodida: Argasidae) Using DNA-Based and Stable Isotope-Based Techniques

The ecology and host feeding patterns of many soft ticks (Ixodida: Argasidae) remain poorly understood. To address soft tick-host feeding associations, we fed Ornithodoros turicata Dugès on multiple host species and evaluated quantitative PCR (qPCR) and stable isotope analyses to identify the vertebrate species used for the bloodmeal. The results showed that a qPCR with host-specific probes for the cytochrome b gene successfully identified bloodmeals from chicken (Gallus gallus L.), goat (Capra aegagrus hircus L), and swine (Sus scrofa domesticus) beyond 330 days post-feeding and through multiple molting. Also, qPCR-based bloodmeal analyses could detect multiple host species within individual ticks that fed upon more than one species. The stable isotope bloodmeal analyses were based on variation in the natural abundance of carbon (13C/12C) and nitrogen (15N/14N) isotopes in ticks fed on different hosts. When compared to reference isotope signatures, this method discerned unique δ13C and δ15N signatures in the ticks fed on each host taxa yet could not discern multiple host species from O. turicata that fed on more than one host species. Given the significance of soft tick-borne zoonoses and animal diseases, elucidating host feeding patterns from field-collected ticks using these methods may provide insight for an ecological basis to disease management.

Cross-Sectional Study on the Prevalence and Factors Influencing Occurrence of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Horses in Lithuania

Various animal species have been evaluated in depth for their potential as Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) sentinel species, although evidence for equine capacity is incomplete. Therefore, a comprehensive cross-sectional stratified serosurvey and PCR analysis of selected horses (n = 301) were performed in TBEV endemic localities in Lithuania. Attached and moving ticks (n = 241) have been collected from aforementioned hosts to evaluate natural infectivity of TBEV vectors (Ixodes spp.) in the recreational environments surrounding equestrian centers. All samples were screened for TBEV IgG and positive samples were confirmed by virus neutralization test (VNT). 113 (37.5%) horses from all counties of Lithuania tested positive for TBEV IgG, revealing age and sex indifferent results of equine seroprevalence that were significantly dependent on pedigree: horses of mixed breed were more susceptible to infection possibly due to their management practices. TBEV prevalence in equine species corresponded to TBEV-confirmed human cases in the precedent year. As much as 3.9% of horses were viraemic with TBEV-RNA with subsequent confirmation of TBEV European subtype. 4/38 of tested tick pools were positive for TBEV-RNA (Minimal infectious rate 1.2%). Several unknown microfoci were revealed during the study indicating areas of extreme risk close to popular human entertainment sites. The study provides important evidence in favor of horses’ usage as sentinel species, as equines could provide more detailed epidemiological mapping of TBEV, as well as more efficient collection of ticks for surveillance studies.

Disappearance of TBEV Circulation among Rodents in a Natural Focus in Alsace, Eastern France

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) depends mainly on a fragile mode of transmission, the co-feeding between infected nymphs and larvae on rodents, and thus persists under a limited set of biotic and abiotic conditions. If these conditions change, natural TBEV foci might be unstable over time. We conducted a longitudinal study over seven years in a mountain forest in Alsace, Eastern France, located at the western border of known TBEV distribution. The objectives were (i) to monitor the persistence of TBEV circulation between small mammals and ticks and (ii) to discuss the presence of TBEV circulation in relation to the synchronous activity of larvae and nymphs, to the densities of questing nymphs and small mammals, and to potential changes in meteorological conditions and deer densities. Small mammals were trapped five times per year from 2012 to 2018 to collect blood samples and record the presence of feeding ticks, and were then released. Questing nymphs were collected twice a year. Overall, 1344 different small mammals (Myodes glareolus and Apodemus flavicollis) were captured and 2031 serum samples were tested for the presence of antibodies against TBEV using an in-house ELISA. Seropositive rodents (2.1%) were only found from 2012 to 2015, suggesting that the virus disappeared afterwards. In parallel, we observed unusual variations in inter-annual nymph abundance and intra-annual larval activity that could be related to exceptional meteorological conditions. Changes in the densities of questing nymphs and deer associated with the natural stochastic variations in the frequency of contacts between rodents and infected ticks may have contributed to the endemic fadeout of TBEV on the study site. Further studies are needed to assess whether such events occur relatively frequently in the area, which could explain the low human incidence of TBE in Alsace and even in other areas of France.

Molecular detection of apicomplexan protozoa in Hokkaido brown bears (Ursus arctos yesoensis) and Japanese black bears (Ursus thibetanus japonicus)

Many tick-borne pathogens (TBPs) are present in wildlife. The objective of this study is to reveal the role of wild bears in maintaining TBPs. A total of 49 brown bears (Ursus arctos yesoensis) from Hokkaido, and 18 Japanese black bears (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) from Tochigi, and 66 Japanese black bears from Nagano were examined by two molecular methods, reverse line blot (RLB) hybridization, and nested PCR. A total of 5 TBPs (Hepatozoon ursi, Babesia sp. UR2-like group, Cytauxzoon sp. UR1, Babesia sp. UR1, and Babesia microti) were detected from bear blood DNA samples. B. microti was detected from blood DNA samples of Japanese black bear for the first time, with the prevalence of 6.0% (5/84). Out of detected pathogens, H. ursi, Babesia sp. UR2-like pathogens, and Cytauxzoon sp. UR1 were considered as three of the most prevalent TBPs in bears. The prevalence of H. ursi were significantly higher in Japanese black bear (0% vs 96.4%) while that of Babesia sp. UR2-like group was higher in Hokkaido brown bears (89.8% vs 40.5%). The prevalence of Babesia sp. UR1 were significantly higher in Japanese black bears from Tochigi (44.4%), comparing with those from Nagano (18.2%). The prevalence of the detected TBPs were significantly higher in adult bears, comparing with those in younger bears. The present study suggests that Japanese bear species contribute in the transmission of several TBPs in Japan. The expanding distribution of bears might cause the accidental transmission of TBPs to humans and domestic animals.

Sampling scale and season influence the observed relationship between the density of deer and questing Ixodes ricinus nymphs

Background

The relationship between environmentally transmitted tick parasites, Ixodes spp., and their main reproductive host, deer, is generally thought to be positive. However, measuring host abundance and density directly can be challenging and indirect methods are often used. The observed relationship between the parasite and host may be affected by sampling scale and season, which could lead to different inferences being made. Here, we aimed to test the effect of sampling scale and season on the relationship between density of deer and the density of questing Ixodes ricinus nymphs.

Methods

The density of deer (primarily Dama dama) was estimated using line transect distance sampling of deer dung quantified in different seasons (winter and summer) and measured at three different nested scales (site, transect and observation level). Questing nymph density was measured using blanket drag methods and estimates were calculated at the same scales as deer density estimates. General linear models were used to evaluate the relationship between questing nymphs, deer density and other environmental variables at each sampling scale and each season deer density was measured at.

Results

While a positive relationship between deer density and questing nymph density was detected at the site and transect scale, no relationship was apparent at the observation level. This was likely due to increased variation and reduced precision of deer dung counts at the finest sampling scale. Seasonal changes in deer populations were observed likely reflecting seasonal shifts in habitat usage. The summer estimates of deer density explained questing nymph density whereas winter estimates did not.

Conclusions

Our results show that the scale of sampling can affect the detectability of the positive association between host and vector species. Furthermore, such associations can be obscured if hosts exhibit seasonal changes in habitat use. Thus, both sampling scale and season are important to consider when investigating the relationship between host and vector species.

Parasites and wildlife in a changing world: The vector-host- pathogen interaction as a learning case

In the Anthropocene context, changes in climate, land use and biodiversity are considered among the most important anthropogenic factors affecting parasites-host interaction and wildlife zoonotic diseases emergence. Transmission of vector borne pathogens are particularly sensitive to these changes due to the complexity of their cycle, where the transmission of a microparasite depends on the interaction between its vector, usually a macroparasite, and its reservoir host, in many cases represented by a wildlife vertebrate. The scope of this paper focuses on the effect of some major, fast-occurring anthropogenic changes on the vectorial capacity for tick and mosquito borne pathogens. Specifically, we review and present the latest advances regarding two emerging vector-borne viruses in Europe: Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and West Nile virus (WNV). In both cases, variation in vector to host ratio is critical in determining the intensity of pathogen transmission and consequently infection hazard for humans. Forecasting vector-borne disease hazard under the global change scenarios is particularly challenging, requiring long term studies based on a multidisciplinary approach in a One-Health framework.

Assessing systemic and non-systemic transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis virus in Hungary

Estimating the tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) infection risk under substantial uncertainties of the vector abundance, environmental condition and human-tick interaction is important for evidence-informed public health intervention strategies. Estimating this risk is computationally challenging since the data we observe, i.e., the human incidence of TBE, is only the final outcome of the tick-host transmission and tick-human contact processes. The challenge also increases since the complex TBE virus (TBEV) transmission cycle involves the non-systemic route of transmission between co-feeding ticks. Here, we describe the hidden Markov transition process, using a novel TBEV transmission-human case reporting cascade model that couples the susceptible-infected compartmental model describing the TBEV transmission dynamics among ticks, animal hosts and humans, with the stochastic observation process of human TBE reporting given infection. By fitting human incidence data in Hungary to the transmission model, we estimate key parameters relevant to the tick-host interaction and tick-human transmission. We then use the parametrized cascade model to assess the transmission potential of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with respect to the climate change, and to evaluate the contribution of non-systemic transmission. We show that the TBEV transmission potential in the enzootic cycle has been increasing along with the increased temperature though the TBE human incidence has dropped since 1990s, emphasizing the importance of persistent public health interventions. By demonstrating that non-systemic transmission pathway is a significant factor in the transmission of TBEV in Hungary, we conclude that the risk of TBE infection will be highly underestimated if the non-systemic transmission route is neglected in the risk assessment.

Risk factors associated with sustained circulation of six zoonotic arboviruses: a systematic review for selection of surveillance sites in non-endemic areas

Arboviruses represent a significant burden to public health and local economies due to their ability to cause unpredictable and widespread epidemics. To maximize early detection of arbovirus emergence in non-endemic areas, surveillance efforts should target areas where circulation is most likely. However, identifying such hotspots of potential emergence is a major challenge. The ecological conditions leading to arbovirus outbreaks are shaped by complex interactions between the virus, its vertebrate hosts, arthropod vector, and abiotic environment that are often poorly understood. Here, we systematically review the ecological risk factors associated with the circulation of six arboviruses that are of considerable concern to northwestern Europe. These include three mosquito-borne viruses (Japanese encephalitis virus, West Nile virus, Rift Valley fever virus) and three tick-borne viruses (Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, and louping-ill virus). We consider both intrinsic (e.g. vector and reservoir host competence) and extrinsic (e.g. temperature, precipitation, host densities, land use) risk factors, identify current knowledge gaps, and discuss future directions. Our systematic review provides baseline information for the identification of regions and habitats that have suitable ecological conditions for endemic circulation, and therefore may be used to target early warning surveillance programs aimed at detecting multi-virus and/or arbovirus emergence.

Model of Risk of Exposure to Lyme Borreliosis and Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus-Infected Ticks in the Border Area of the Czech Republic (South Bohemia) and Germany (Lower Bavaria and Upper Palatinate)

In Europe, Lyme borreliosis (LB) and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) are the two vector-borne diseases with the largest impact on human health. Based on data on the density of host-seeking Ixodes ricinus ticks and pathogen prevalence and using a variety of environmental data, we have created an acarological risk model for a region where both diseases are endemic (Czech Republic-South Bohemia and Germany-Lower Bavaria, Upper Palatinate). The data on tick density were acquired by flagging 50 sampling sites three times in a single season. Prevalence of the causative agents of LB and TBE was determined. Data on environmental variables (e.g., altitude, vegetation cover, NDVI, land surface temperature) were obtained from various sources and processed using geographical information systems. Generalized linear models were used to estimate tick density, probability of tick infection, and density of infected ticks for the whole area. A significantly higher incidence of human TBE cases was recorded in South Bohemia compared to Bavarian regions, which correlated with a lower tick density in Bavaria. However, the differences in pathogen prevalence rates were not significant. The model outputs were made available to the public in the form of risk maps, indicating the distribution of tick-borne disease risk in space.

High burdens of Ixodes scapularis larval ticks on white-tailed deer may limit Lyme disease risk in a low biodiversity setting

An inverse relationship between biodiversity and human health has been termed the ‘dilution effect’ paradigm. In the case of tick-borne infections such as Lyme disease, the key assumption is that Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato abundance is increased by the loss of less competent (dilution) hosts as biodiversity declines. White-tailed deer play a dual role in the pathogen cycle, as key reproductive hosts for adult ticks and incompetent hosts for the pathogen. While the role of deer as hosts of adult ticks is well established, the extent to which deer also feed immature ticks and reduce the proportion infected is unknown because of logistic constraints in measuring this empirically. We estimated the proportion of larvae that fed on deer in an extremely species-poor community on Block Island, RI, where tick nymphal infection prevalence was found to be lower than expected. In 2014, we measured the density, larval tick burdens, and realized reservoir competence of small mammal and bird hosts on Block Island, RI. In 2015, we measured the infection prevalence of host-seeking Ixodes scapularis nymphs resulting from larvae fed on available hosts in 2014. We back-estimated the proportion of larvae expected to have fed on deer in 2014 (the only unknown parameter) to result in the nymphal infection prevalence observed in 2015. Back-estimation predicted that 29% of larval ticks must have fed on deer to yield the observed 30% nymphal infection prevalence. In comparison, the proportion of larvae feeding on mice was 44% and 27% on birds. Our study identified an influential role of deer in reducing nymphal tick infection prevalence and a potential role as dilution hosts if the reduction in nymphal infection prevalence outweighs the role of deer as tick population amplifiers. Because both deer and competent hosts may increase in anthropogenic, fragmented habitats, the links between fragmentation, biodiversity, and Lyme disease risk may be complex and difficult to predict. Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship between deer abundance and Lyme disease risk would reduce the efficacy of deer population reduction efforts to control Lyme disease.

The importance of wildlife in the ecology and epidemiology of the TBE virus in Sweden: incidence of human TBE correlates with abundance of deer and hares

Background

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is one tick-transmitted disease where the human incidence has increased in some European regions during the last two decades. We aim to find the most important factors causing the increasing incidence of human TBE in Sweden. Based on a review of published data we presume that certain temperature-related variables and the population densities of transmission hosts, i.e. small mammals, and of primary tick maintenance hosts, i.e. cervids and lagomorphs, of the TBE virus vector Ixodes ricinus, are among the potentially most important factors affecting the TBE incidence. Therefore, we compare hunting data of the major tick maintenance hosts and two of their important predators, and four climatic variables with the annual numbers of human cases of neuroinvasive TBE. Data for six Swedish regions where human TBE incidence is high or has recently increased are examined by a time-series analysis. Results from the six regions are combined using a meta-analytical method.

Results

With a one-year time lag, the roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), red deer (Cervus elaphus), mountain hare (Lepus timidus) and European hare (Lepus europaeus) showed positive covariance; the Eurasian elk (moose, Alces alces) and fallow deer (Dama dama) negative covariance; whereas the wild boar (Sus scrofa), lynx (Lynx lynx), red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and the four climate parameters showed no significant covariance with TBE incidence. All game species combined showed positive covariance.

Conclusions

The epidemiology of TBE varies with time and geography and depends on numerous factors, i.a. climate, virus genotypes, and densities of vectors, tick maintenance hosts and transmission hosts. This study suggests that the increased availability of deer to I. ricinus over large areas of potential tick habitats in southern Sweden increased the density and range of I. ricinus and created new TBEV foci, which resulted in increased incidence of human TBE. New foci may be established by TBE virus-infected birds, or by birds or migrating mammals infested with TBEV-infected ticks. Generally, persistence of TBE virus foci appears to require presence of transmission-competent small mammals, especially mice (Apodemus spp.) or bank voles (Myodes glareolus).

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-3057-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Ticks are more suitable than red foxes for monitoring zoonotic tick-borne pathogens in northeastern Italy

BACKGROUND

Northeastern Italy is a hotspot for several tick-borne pathogens, transmitted to animals and humans mainly by Ixodes ricinus. Here we compare the results of molecular monitoring of ticks and zoonotic TBPs over a six-year period, with the monitoring of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in an endemic area.

RESULTS

In the period 2011-2016, 2,578 ticks were collected in 38 sites of 20 municipalities of Belluno Province. Individual adults (264), pooled larvae (n = 330) and nymphs (n = 1984) were screened for tick-borne encephalitis virus, Borrelia burgdorferi (s.l.), Rickettsia spp., Babesia spp., Anaplasma phagocytophilum and "Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis" by specific SYBR green real-time PCR assays and sequencing. The spleens of 97 foxes, culled in the period 2015-2017 during sport hunting or population control programs, were also screened. Overall, nine different pathogens were found in I. ricinus nymph and adult ticks: Rickettsia helvetica (3.69%); R. monacensis (0.49%); four species of the B. burgdorferi (s.l.) complex [B. afzelii (1.51%); B. burgdorferi (s.s.) (1.25%); B. garinii (0.18%); and B. valaisiana (0.18%)]; A. phagocytophilum (3.29%); "Candidatus N. mikurensis" (1.73%); and Babesia venatorum (0.04%). Larvae were collected and screened in the first year only and two pools (0.6%) were positive for R. helvetica. Tick-borne encephalitis virus was not found in ticks although human cases do occur in the area. The rate of infection in ticks varied widely according to tick developmental stage, site and year of collection. As expected, adults were the most infected, with 27.6% harboring at least one pathogen compared to 7.3% of nymphs. Pathogens with a minimum infection rate above 1% were recorded every year. None of the pathogens found in ticks were detectable in the foxes, 52 (54%) of which were instead positive for Babesia cf. microti (also referred to as Babesia microti-like, "Theileria annae", "Babesia annae" and "Babesia vulpes").

CONCLUSIONS

The results show that foxes cannot be used as sentinel animals to monitor tick-borne pathogens in the specific epidemiological context of northeastern Italy. The high prevalence of Babesia cf. microti in foxes and its absence in ticks strongly suggests that I. ricinus is not the vector of this pathogen.

Modeling the effects of variable feeding patterns of larval ticks on the transmission of Borrelia lusitaniae and Borrelia afzelii

Spirochetes belonging to the Borrelia burgdoferi sensu lato (sl) group cause Lyme Borreliosis (LB), which is the most commonly reported vector-borne zoonosis in Europe. B. burgdorferi sl is maintained in nature in a complex cycle involving Ixodes ricinus ticks and several species of vertebrate hosts. The transmission dynamics of B. burgdorferi sl is complicated by the varying competence of animals for different genospecies of spirochetes that, in turn, vary in their capability of causing disease. In this study, a set of difference equations simplifying the complex interaction between vectors and their hosts (competent and not for Borrelia) is built to gain insights into conditions underlying the dominance of B. lusitaniae (transmitted by lizards to susceptible ticks) and the maintenance of B. afzelii (transmitted by wild rodents) observed in a study area in Tuscany, Italy. Findings, in agreement with field observations, highlight the existence of a threshold for the fraction of larvae feeding on rodents below which the persistence of B. afzelii is not possible. Furthermore, thresholds change as nonlinear functions of the expected number of nymph bites on mice, and the transmission and recovery probabilities. In conclusion, our model provided an insight into mechanisms underlying the relative frequency of different Borrelia genospecies, as observed in field studies.

Modeling Lyme disease transmission

Lyme disease, a typical tick-borne disease, imposes increasing global public health challenges. A growing body of theoretical models have been proposed to better understand various factors determining the disease risk, which not only enrich our understanding on the ecological cycle of disease transmission but also promote new theoretical developments on model formulation, analysis and simulation. In this paper, we provide a review about the models and results we have obtained recently on modeling and analyzing Lyme disease transmission, with the purpose to highlight various aspects in the ecological cycle of disease transmission to be incorporated, including the growth of ticks with different stages in the life cycle, the seasonality, host diversity, spatial disease pattern due to host short distance movement and bird migration, co-infection with other tick-borne pathogens, and climate change impact.

The role of game (wild boar and roe deer) in the spread of tick-borne encephalitis in the Czech Republic

In the Czech Republic, the incidence of human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) has been increasing over the last two decades. At the same time, populations of game have also shown an upward trend. In this country, the ungulate game is the main host group of hosts for Ixodes ricinus female ticks. This study examined the potential contribution of two most widespread game species (roe deer [Capreolus capreolus] and wild boar [Sus scrofa]) to the high incidence of TBE in the Czech Republic, using the annual numbers of culls as a proxy for the game population. This was an ecological study, with annual figures for geographical areas-municipalities with extended competence (MEC)-used as units of analysis. Between 2003 and 2011, a total of 6213 TBE cases were reported, and 1062,308 roe deer and 989,222 wild boars were culled; the culls of roe deer did not demonstrate a clear temporal trend, but wild boar culls almost doubled (from 77,269 to 143,378 per year). Statistical analyses revealed a positive association between TBE incidence rate and the relative number of culled wild boars. In multivariate analyses, a change in the numbers of culled wild boars between the 25th and 75th percentile was associated with TBE incidence rate ratio of 1.23 (95% confidence interval 1.07-1.41, p=0.003). By contrast, the association of TBE with culled roe deer was not statistically significant (p=0.481). The results suggest that the size of the wild boar population may have contributed to the current high levels and the rising trend in incidence of TBE, whereas the regulated population of roe deer does not seem to be implicated in recent geographical or temporal variations in TBE in the Czech Republic.

Identification of Ixodes ricinus blood meals using an automated protocol with high resolution melting analysis (HRMA) reveals the importance of domestic dogs as larval tick hosts in Italian alpine forests

BACKGROUND

In Europe, Ixodes ricinus L. is the main vector of a variety of zoonotic pathogens, acquired through blood meals taken once per stage from a vertebrate host. Defining the main tick hosts in a given area is important for planning public health interventions; however, until recently, no robust molecular methods existed for blood meal identification from questing ticks. Here we improved the time- and cost-effectiveness of an HRMA protocol for blood meal analysis and used it to identify blood meal sources of sheep tick larvae from Italian alpine forests.

METHODS

Nine hundred questing nymphs were collected using blanket-dragging in 18 extensive forests and 12 forest patches close to rural villages in the Province of Trento. Total DNA was either extracted manually, with the QIAamp DNA Investigator kit, or automatically using the KingFisher™ Flex Magnetic Particle Processors (KingFisher Cell and Tissue DNA Kit). Host DNA was amplified with six independent host group real-time PCR reactions and identified by means of HRMA. Statistical analyses were performed in R to assess the variables important for achieving successful identification and to compare host use in the two types of forest.

RESULTS

Automating DNA extraction improved time- and cost-effectiveness of the HRMA protocol, but identification success fell to 22.4% (KingFisher™) from 55.1% (QIAamp), with larval hosts identified in 215 of 848 questing nymphs; 23 mixed blood meals were noted. However, the list of hosts targeted by our primer sets was extended, improving the potential of the method. Host identification to species or genus level was possible for 137 and 102 blood meals, respectively. The most common hosts were Rodentia (28.9%) and, unexpectedly, Carnivora (28.4%), with domestic dogs accounting for 21.3% of all larval blood meals. Overall, Cetartiodactyla species fed 17.2% of larvae. Passeriformes (14.6%) fed a significantly higher proportion of larvae in forest patches (22.3%) than in extensive forest (9.6%), while Soricomorpha (10.9%) were more important hosts in extensive forest (15.2%) than in forest patches (4.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

The HRMA protocol for blood meal analysis is a valuable tool in the study of feeding ecology of sheep ticks, especially with the cost- and time- reductions introduced here. To our knowledge, we show for the first time that domestic dogs are important larval hosts in the Alps, which may have possible implications for tick-borne disease cycles in urbanized areas.

Past and future perspectives on mathematical models of tick-borne pathogens

Ticks are vectors of pathogens which are important both with respect to human health and economically. They have a complex life cycle requiring several blood meals throughout their life. These blood meals take place on different individual hosts and potentially on different host species. Their life cycle is also dependent on environmental conditions such as the temperature and habitat type. Mathematical models have been used for the more than 30 years to help us understand how tick dynamics are dependent on these environmental factors and host availability. In this paper, we review models of tick dynamics and summarize the main results. This summary is split into two parts, one which looks at tick dynamics and one which looks at tick-borne pathogens. In general, the models of tick dynamics are used to determine when the peak in tick densities is likely to occur in the year and how that changes with environmental conditions. The models of tick-borne pathogens focus more on the conditions under which the pathogen can persist and how host population densities might be manipulated to control these pathogens. In the final section of the paper, we identify gaps in the current knowledge and future modelling approaches. These include spatial models linked to environmental information and Geographic Information System maps, and development of new modelling techniques which model tick densities per host more explicitly.

Making green infrastructure healthier infrastructure

Increasing urban green and blue structure is often pointed out to be critical for sustainable development and climate change adaptation, which has led to the rapid expansion of greening activities in cities throughout the world. This process is likely to have a direct impact on the citizens' quality of life and public health. However, alongside numerous benefits, green and blue infrastructure also has the potential to create unexpected, undesirable, side-effects for health. This paper considers several potential harmful public health effects that might result from increased urban biodiversity, urban bodies of water, and urban tree cover projects. It does so with the intent of improving awareness and motivating preventive measures when designing and initiating such projects. Although biodiversity has been found to be associated with physiological benefits for humans in several studies, efforts to increase the biodiversity of urban environments may also promote the introduction and survival of vector or host organisms for infectious pathogens with resulting spread of a variety of diseases. In addition, more green connectivity in urban areas may potentiate the role of rats and ticks in the spread of infectious diseases. Bodies of water and wetlands play a crucial role in the urban climate adaptation and mitigation process. However, they also provide habitats for mosquitoes and toxic algal blooms. Finally, increasing urban green space may also adversely affect citizens allergic to pollen. Increased awareness of the potential hazards of urban green and blue infrastructure should not be a reason to stop or scale back projects. Instead, incorporating public health awareness and interventions into urban planning at the earliest stages can help insure that green and blue infrastructure achieves full potential for health promotion.

Review: Sentinels of tick-borne encephalitis risk

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a viral zoonotic disease endemic in many regions of Eurasia. The definition of TBE risk areas is complicated by the focal nature of the TBE virus transmission. Furthermore, vaccination may reduce case numbers and thus mask infection risk to unvaccinated persons. Therefore, additional risk indicators are sought to complement the current risk assessment solely based on human incidence. We reviewed studies published over the past ten years investigating potential new sentinels of TBE risk to understand the advantages and disadvantages of the various sentinel animal surveys and surrogate indicator methods. Virus prevalence in questing ticks is an unsuitable indicator of TBE infection risk as viral RNA is rarely detected even in large sample sizes collected at known TBE endemic areas. Seroprevalence in domestic animals, on the other hand, showed good spatial correlation with TBE incidence in humans and might also uncover presently unknown TBEV foci.

Factors affecting the ecology of tick-borne encephalitis in Slovenia

Recognition of factors that influence the formation of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) foci is important for assessing the risk of humans acquiring the viral infection and for establishing what can be done (within reasonable boundaries) to minimize that risk. In Slovenia, the dynamics of the TBE vector, i.e. Ixodes ricinus, was studied over a 4-year period and the prevalence of infection in ticks was established. Two groups of tick hosts were investigated: deer and small mammals. Red deer have been confirmed as having a direct influence on the incidence of TBE and rodents have been recognized as important sentinels for TBE infections, although their role in the enzootic cycle of the virus still remains to be elucidated. Last, forest and agricultural areas, which are influenced by human activity, are suitable habitats for ticks, and important for TBEV transmission and establishment. Human behaviour is also therefore an important factor and should always be considered in studies of TBE ecology.

Ixodes ricinus and Its Transmitted Pathogens in Urban and Peri-Urban Areas in Europe: New Hazards and Relevance for Public Health

Tick-borne diseases represent major public and animal health issues worldwide. Ixodes ricinus, primarily associated with deciduous and mixed forests, is the principal vector of causative agents of viral, bacterial, and protozoan zoonotic diseases in Europe. Recently, abundant tick populations have been observed in European urban green areas, which are of public health relevance due to the exposure of humans and domesticated animals to potentially infected ticks. In urban habitats, small and medium-sized mammals, birds, companion animals (dogs and cats), and larger mammals (roe deer and wild boar) play a role in maintenance of tick populations and as reservoirs of tick-borne pathogens. Presence of ticks infected with tick-borne encephalitis virus and high prevalence of ticks infected with Borrelia burgdorferi s.l., causing Lyme borreliosis, have been reported from urbanized areas in Europe. Emerging pathogens, including bacteria of the order Rickettsiales (Anaplasma phagocytophilum, "Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis," Rickettsia helvetica, and R. monacensis), Borrelia miyamotoi, and protozoans (Babesia divergens, B. venatorum, and B. microti) have also been detected in urban tick populations. Understanding the ecology of ticks and their associations with hosts in a European urbanized environment is crucial to quantify parameters necessary for risk pre-assessment and identification of public health strategies for control and prevention of tick-borne diseases.

Pattern of tick aggregation on mice: larger than expected distribution tail enhances the spread of tick-borne pathogens

The spread of tick-borne pathogens represents an important threat to human and animal health in many parts of Eurasia. Here, we analysed a 9-year time series of Ixodes ricinus ticks feeding on Apodemus flavicollis mice (main reservoir-competent host for tick-borne encephalitis, TBE) sampled in Trentino (Northern Italy). The tail of the distribution of the number of ticks per host was fitted by three theoretical distributions: Negative Binomial (NB), Poisson-LogNormal (PoiLN), and Power-Law (PL). The fit with theoretical distributions indicated that the tail of the tick infestation pattern on mice is better described by the PL distribution. Moreover, we found that the tail of the distribution significantly changes with seasonal variations in host abundance. In order to investigate the effect of different tails of tick distribution on the invasion of a non-systemically transmitted pathogen, we simulated the transmission of a TBE-like virus between susceptible and infective ticks using a stochastic model. Model simulations indicated different outcomes of disease spreading when considering different distribution laws of ticks among hosts. Specifically, we found that the epidemic threshold and the prevalence equilibria obtained in epidemiological simulations with PL distribution are a good approximation of those observed in simulations feed by the empirical distribution. Moreover, we also found that the epidemic threshold for disease invasion was lower when considering the seasonal variation of tick aggregation.

Our work analyses a 9-year time series of tick co-feeding patterns on Yellow-necked mice. Our data shows a strong heterogeneity, where most mice are parasitised by a small number of ticks while few host a much larger number. We describe the number of ticks per host by the commonly used Negative Binomial model, by the Poisson-LogNormal model, and we propose the Power Law model as an alternative. In our data, the last model seems to better describe the strong heterogeneity. In order to understand the epidemiological consequences, we use a computational model to reproduce a peculiar way of transmission, observed in some cases in nature, where uninfected ticks acquire an infection by feeding on a host where infected ticks are present, without any remarkable epidemiological involvement of the host itself. In particular, we are interested in determining the conditions leading to pathogen spread. We observe that the effective transmission of this infection in nature is highly dependent on the capability of the implemented model to describe the tick burden. In addition, we also consider seasonal changes in tick aggregation on mice, showing its influence on the spread of the infection.

Blood feeding on large grazers affects the transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato by Ixodes ricinus

The presence of Ixodes ricinus and their associated Borrelia infections on large grazers was investigated. Carcases of freshly shot red deer, mouflon and wild boar were examined for the presence of any stage of I. ricinus. Questing ticks were collected from locations where red deer and wild boar are known to occur. Presence of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA was examined in a fraction of the collected ticks. Larvae, nymphs and adult ticks were found on the three large grazers. Red deer had the highest tick burden, with many of the nymphs and adult females attached for engorgement. Most larvae had not attached. The mean number of ticks on the animals varied from 13 to 67. Ticks were highly aggregated amongst the animals: some animals had no ticks, while others had high numbers. Larvae and nymphs were mostly found on the ears, while adult ticks were attached to the axillae. The Borrelia infection rate of questing nymphs was 8.5%. Unengorged wandering nymphs on deer had a Borrelia infection rate of 12.5%, while only 0.9% of feeding nymphs carried a Borrelia infection. The infection rate of unengorged adult male ticks was 4.5%, and that of feeding female ticks was 0.7%. The data suggest that ticks feeding on red deer and wild boar lose their Borrelia infections. The implications of the results are discussed with respect to Borrelia epidemiology and maintenance of a Borrelia reservoir as well as the role of reproductive hosts for Ixodes ricinus.

History and complexity in tick-host dynamics: discrepancies between 'real' and 'visible' tick populations

BACKGROUND

Numerical responses of ticks to changes in densities of their hosts can be complex and apparently unpredictable. Manipulations even of deterministic models can produce counter-intuitive results, including tick populations that either rise or fall under increasing host densities, depending on initial conditions.

METHODS

In this paper I use an established simulation model to demonstrate a wide range of numerical responses to different scenarios of host changes, and to examine the basic mechanisms that drive them.

RESULTS

The rate and direction of change of host densities affects the extent to which questing tick numbers reflect those of their hosts. Numerical responses differ profoundly between dynamic tick-host systems and those allowed to reach equilibrium.

CONCLUSIONS

The key to understanding tick-host dynamics is to understand the difference between 'real' and 'visible' tick populations. An appreciation of the implications of this difference - and of the conditions that influence it - will benefit the effective interpretation of field data.

Climate and environmental change drives Ixodes ricinus geographical expansion at the northern range margin

Background

Global environmental change is causing spatial and temporal shifts in the distribution of species and the associated diseases of humans, domesticated animals and wildlife. In the on-going debate on the influence of climate change on vectors and vector-borne diseases, there is a lack of a comprehensive interdisciplinary multi-factorial approach utilizing high quality spatial and temporal data.

Methods

We explored biotic and abiotic factors associated with the latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in the distribution of Ixodes ricinus observed during the last three decades in Norway using antibodies against Anaplasma phagocytophilum in sheep as indicators for tick presence. Samples obtained from 2963 sheep from 90 farms in 3 ecologically different districts during 1978 – 2008 were analysed. We modelled the presence of antibodies against A. phagocytophilum to climatic-, environmental and demographic variables, and abundance of wild cervids and domestic animals, using mixed effect logistic regressions.

Results

Significant predictors were large diurnal fluctuations in ground surface temperature, spring precipitation, duration of snow cover, abundance of red deer and farm animals and bush encroachment/ecotones. The length of the growth season, mean temperature and the abundance of roe deer were not significant in the model.

Conclusions

Our results highlight the need to consider climatic variables year-round to disentangle important seasonal variation, climatic threshold changes, climate variability and to consider the broader environmental change, including abiotic and biotic factors. The results offer novel insight in how tick and tick-borne disease distribution might be modified by future climate and environmental change.

Ixodes ricinus and Its Transmitted Pathogens in Urban and Peri-Urban Areas in Europe: New Hazards and Relevance for Public Health

Tick-borne diseases represent major public and animal health issues worldwide. Ixodes ricinus, primarily associated with deciduous and mixed forests, is the principal vector of causative agents of viral, bacterial, and protozoan zoonotic diseases in Europe. Recently, abundant tick populations have been observed in European urban green areas, which are of public health relevance due to the exposure of humans and domesticated animals to potentially infected ticks. In urban habitats, small and medium-sized mammals, birds, companion animals (dogs and cats), and larger mammals (roe deer and wild boar) play a role in maintenance of tick populations and as reservoirs of tick-borne pathogens. Presence of ticks infected with tick-borne encephalitis virus and high prevalence of ticks infected with Borrelia burgdorferi s.l., causing Lyme borreliosis, have been reported from urbanized areas in Europe. Emerging pathogens, including bacteria of the order Rickettsiales (Anaplasma phagocytophilum, "Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis," Rickettsia helvetica, and R. monacensis), Borrelia miyamotoi, and protozoans (Babesia divergens, B. venatorum, and B. microti) have also been detected in urban tick populations. Understanding the ecology of ticks and their associations with hosts in a European urbanized environment is crucial to quantify parameters necessary for risk pre-assessment and identification of public health strategies for control and prevention of tick-borne diseases.

The three subtypes of tick-borne encephalitis virus induce encephalitis in a natural host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus)

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) infects bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in nature, but the relevance of rodents for TBEV transmission and maintenance is unclear. We infected colonized bank voles subcutaneously to study and compare the infection kinetics, acute infection, and potential viral persistence of the three known TBEV subtypes: European (TBEV-Eur), Siberian (TBEV-Sib) and Far Eastern (TBEV-FE). All strains representing the three subtypes were infective and highly neurotropic. They induced (meningo)encephalitis in some of the animals, however most of the cases did not present with apparent clinical symptoms. TBEV-RNA was cleared significantly slower from the brain as compared to other organs studied. Supporting our earlier findings in natural rodent populations, TBEV-RNA could be detected in the brain for up to 168 days post infection, but we could not demonstrate infectivity by cell culture isolation. Throughout all time points post infection, RNA of the TBEV-FE was detected significantly more often than RNA of the other two strains in all organs studied. TBEV-FE also induced prolonged viremia, indicating distinctive kinetics in rodents in comparison to the other two subtypes. This study shows that bank voles can develop a neuroinvasive TBEV infection with persistence of viral RNA in brain, and mount an anti-TBEV IgG response. The findings also provide further evidence that bank voles can serve as sentinels for TBEV endemicity.

Detection and genetic characterization of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) derived from ticks removed from red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and isolated from spleen samples of red deer (Cervus elaphus) in Croatia

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a growing public health concern in central and northern European countries. Even though TBE is a notifiable disease in Croatia, there is a significant lack of information in regard to vector tick identification, distribution as well as TBE virus prevalence in ticks or animals. The aim of our study was to identify and to investigate the viral prevalence of TBE virus in ticks removed from red fox (Vulpes vulpes) carcasses hunted in endemic areas in northern Croatia and to gain a better insight in the role of wild ungulates, especially red deer (Cervus elaphus) in the maintenance of the TBE virus in the natural cycle. We identified 5 tick species (Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes hexagonus, Haemaphysalis punctata, Dermacentor reticulatus, Rhipicephalus sanguineus) removed from 40 red foxes. However, TBE virus was isolated only from adult I. ricinus and I. hexagonus ticks showing a viral prevalence (1.6%) similar to or higher than reported in endemic areas of other European countries. Furthermore, 2 positive spleen samples from 182 red deer (1.1%) were found. Croatian TBE virus isolates were genetically analyzed, and they were shown to be closely related, all belonging to the European TBE virus subgroup. However, on the basis of nucleotide and amino acid sequence analysis, 2 clusters were identified. Our results show that further investigation is needed to understand the clustering of isolates and to identify the most common TBE virus reservoir hosts in Croatia. Sentinel surveys based on wild animal species would give a better insight in defining TBE virus-endemic and possible risk areas in Croatia.

Molecular phylogeography of tick-borne encephalitis virus in central Europe

In order to obtain a better understanding of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) strain movements in central Europe the E gene sequences of 102 TBEV strains collected from 1953 to 2011 at 38 sites in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Germany were determined. Bayesian analysis suggests a 350-year history of evolution and spread in central Europe of two main lineages, A and B. In contrast to the east to west spread at the Eurasian continent level, local central European spreading patterns suggest historic west to east spread followed by more recent east to west spread. The phylogenetic and network analyses indicate TBEV ingressions from the Czech Republic and Slovakia into Germany via landscape features (Danube river system), biogenic factors (birds, red deer) and anthropogenic factors. The identification of endemic foci showing local genetic diversity is of paramount importance to the field as these will be a prerequisite for in-depth analysis of focal TBEV maintenance and long-distance TBEV spread.

Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis in rodents in an area with sympatric existence of the hard ticks Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus, Germany

Background

Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis (CNM) has been described in the hard tick Ixodes ricinus and rodents as well as in some severe cases of human disease. The aims of this study were to identify DNA of CNM in small mammals, the ticks parasitizing them and questing ticks in areas with sympatric existence of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Germany.

Methods

Blood, transudate and organ samples (spleen, kidney, liver, skin) of 91 small mammals and host-attached ticks from altogether 50 small mammals as well as questing I. ricinus ticks (n=782) were screened with a real-time PCR for DNA of CNM.

Results

52.7% of the small mammals were positive for CNM-DNA. The majority of the infected animals were yellow-necked mice (Apodemus flavicollis) and bank voles (Myodes glareolus). Small mammals with tick infestation were more often infected with CNM than small mammals without ticks. Compared with the prevalence of ~25% in the questing I. ricinus ticks, twice the prevalence in the rodents provides evidence for their role as reservoir hosts for CNM.

Conclusion

The high prevalence of this pathogen in the investigated areas in both rodents and ticks points towards the need for more specific investigation on its role as a human pathogen.

Environmental determinants of Ixodes ricinus ticks and the incidence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, the agent of Lyme borreliosis, in Scotland

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most common arthropod-borne disease of humans in the Northern hemisphere. In Europe, the causative agent, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato complex, is principally vectored by Ixodes ricinus ticks. The aim of this study was to identify environmental factors influencing questing I. ricinus nymph abundance and B. burgdorferi s.l. infection in questing nymphs using a large-scale survey across Scotland. Ticks, host dung and vegetation were surveyed at 25 woodland sites, and climatic variables from a Geographical Information System (GIS) were extracted for each site. A total of 2397 10 m2 transect surveys were conducted and 13 250 I. ricinus nymphs counted. Questing nymphs were assayed for B. burgdorferi s.l. and the average infection prevalence was 5·6% (range 0·8-13·9%). More questing nymphs and higher incidence of B. burgdorferi s.l. infection were found in areas with higher deer abundance and in mixed/deciduous compared to coniferous forests, as well as weaker correlations with season, altitude, rainfall and ground vegetation. No correlation was found between nymph abundance and infection prevalence within the ranges encountered. An understanding of the environmental conditions associated with tick abundance and pathogen prevalence may be used to reduce risk of exposure and to predict future pathogen prevalence and distributions under environmental changes.

Why is tick-borne encephalitis increasing? A review of the key factors causing the increasing incidence of human TBE in Sweden

The highest annual incidence of human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Sweden ever recorded by the Swedish Institute for Communicable Disease Control (SMI) occurred last year, 2011. The number of TBE cases recorded during 2012 up to 6th August 2012 indicates that the incidence for 2012 could exceed that of 2011. In this review of the ecology and epidemiology of TBE in Sweden our main aim is to analyse the possible reasons behind the gradually increasing incidence of human TBE during the last 20 years. The main TBE virus (TBEV) vector to humans in Sweden is the nymphal stage of the common tick Ixodes ricinus. The main mode of transmission and maintenance of TBEV in the tick population is considered to be when infective nymphs co-feed with uninfected but infectible larvae on rodents. In most locations the roe deer, Capreolus capreolus is the main host for the reproducing adult I. ricinus ticks. The high number of roe deer for more than three decades has resulted in a very large tick population. Deer numbers have, however, gradually declined from the early 1990s to the present. This decline in roe deer numbers most likely made the populations of small rodents, which are reservoir-competent for TBEV, gradually more important as hosts for the immature ticks. Consequently, the abundance of TBEV-infected ticks has increased. Two harsh winters in 2009-2011 caused a more abrupt decline in roe deer numbers. This likely forced a substantial proportion of the "host-seeking" ticks to feed on bank voles (Myodes glareolus), which at that time suddenly had become very numerous, rather than on roe deer. Thus, the bank vole population peak in 2010 most likely caused many tick larvae to feed on reservoir-competent rodents. This presumably resulted in increased transmission of TBEV among ticks and therefore increased the density of infected ticks the following year. The unusually warm, humid weather and the prolonged vegetation period in 2011 permitted nymphs and adult ticks to quest for hosts nearly all days of that year. These weather conditions stimulated many people to spend time outdoors in areas where they were at risk of being attacked by infective nymphs. This resulted in at least 284 human cases of overt TBE. The tick season of 2012 also started early with an exceptionally warm March. The abundance of TBEV-infective "hungry" ticks was presumably still relatively high. Precipitation during June and July was rich and will lead to a "good mushroom season". These factors together are likely to result in a TBE incidence of 2012 similar to or higher than that of 2011.