Increased uptake and new therapies are needed to avert rising hepatitis C-related end stage liver disease in England: modelling the predicted impact of treatment under different scenarios

A Systematic Review of Quality of Life in Patients with Short Bowel Syndrome and Their Caregivers

Purpose

Understanding the quality of life and the factors that influence it for patients with short bowel syndrome (SBS) and their caregivers is of utmost importance in order to enhance their well-being. Therefore, This study aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of SBS on patients and their caregivers, as well as its associated factors, by synthesizing the available evidence.

Methods

A systematic review of the literature was done using PubMed, Embase databases, CNKI, and ISPOR conference papers. Included articles were manually searched to identify any other relevant studies. Quality was assessed using appropriate Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools.

Results

This review included 16 studies, comprising 15 observational studies and 1 randomized controlled trial. The findings revealed that the QoL of patients with SBS was lower than that of the general population regarding physical functioning and psychological domain. Meanwhile, caregivers experienced challenges in maintaining their QoL. The QoL of SBS patients was found to be influenced by various factors such as treatment, age, sex, stoma, and small intestine length. Among them, the treatment is the most noteworthy factor that can be effectively improved through external interventions.

Conclusion

While numerous studies have provided insights into the compromised QoL experienced by individuals with SBS and their caregivers, there remains a scarcity of large-sample quantitative investigations examining the determinants of QoL. The existing body of literature on caregivers is also notably deficient.

Removing hepatitis C antibody testing for Australian blood donations: A cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The risk of transfusion-transmitted hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is extremely low in Australia. This study aims to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of different testing strategies for HCV infection in blood donations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The four testing strategies evaluated in this study were universal testing with both HCV antibody (anti-HCV) and nucleic acid testing (NAT); anti-HCV and NAT for first-time donations and NAT only for repeat donations; anti-HCV and NAT for transfusible component donations and NAT only for plasma for further manufacture; and universal testing with NAT only. A decision-analytical model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative HCV testing strategies. Sensitivity analysis and threshold analysis were conducted to account for data uncertainty.

RESULTS

The number of potential transfusion-transmitted cases of acute hepatitis C and chronic hepatitis C was approximately zero in all four strategies. Universal testing with NAT only was the most cost-effective strategy due to the lowest testing cost. The threshold analysis showed that for the current practice to be cost-effective, the residual risks of other testing strategies would have to be at least 1 HCV infection in 2424 donations, which is over 60,000 times the baseline residual risk (1 in 151 million donations).

CONCLUSION

The screening strategy for HCV in blood donations currently implemented in Australia is not cost-effective compared with targeted testing or universal testing with NAT only. Partial or total removal of anti-HCV testing would bring significant cost savings without compromising blood recipient safety.

Precision Medicine for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Clinical Perspective

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the major malignant diseases worldwide, characterized by growing incidence and high mortality rates despite apparent improvements in surveillance programs, diagnostic and treatment procedures, molecular therapies, and numerous research initiatives. Most HCCs occur in patients with liver cirrhosis, and the competing mortality risks from the tumor and the cirrhosis should be considered. Presently, previously identified risk factors, such as hepatitis virus infection, hepatic inflammation and fibrosis, and metabolic syndrome, may be used as chemoprevention targets. The application of precision medicine for HCC management challenges the one-size-fits-all concept; moreover, patients should no longer be treated entirely according to the histology of their tumor but based on molecular targets specific to their tumor biology. Next-generation sequencing emphasizes HCC molecular heterogeneity and aids our comprehension of possible vulnerabilities that can be exploited. Moreover, genetic sequencing as part of a precision medicine concept may work as a promising tool for postoperative cancer monitoring. The use of genetic and epigenetic markers to identify therapeutic vulnerability could change the diagnosis and treatment of HCC, which so far was based on Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) staging. In daily clinical practice, the shift from a stage-oriented to a therapeutic-oriented approach is needed to direct the choice of HCC treatment toward the potentially most effective option on an individual basis. The important factor in precision medicine is the promotion of patient management based on the individual approach, knowing that the final decision must be approved by a multidisciplinary expert team.

Australia could miss the WHO hepatitis C virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications

Australia was one of the first countries to introduce government-funded unrestricted access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy, with 88,790 treated since March 2016. However, treatment uptake is declining which could potentially undermine Australia's progress towards the WHO HCV elimination targets. Using mathematical modelling, we updated estimates for those living with chronic HCV in Australia, new cases of decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related mortality among the HCV-cured and viraemic populations from 2015 to 2030. We considered various DAA treatment scenarios incorporating annual treatment numbers to 2020, and subsequent uptake per year of 6,790 (pessimistic), 8,100 (intermediate), and 11,310 (optimistic). We incorporated the effects of excess alcohol consumption and reduction in progression to DC and HCC among cirrhosis-cured versus viraemic individuals. At the end of 2020, we estimated 117,810 Australians were living with chronic HCV. New cases per year of DC, HCC, and liver-related mortality among the HCV viraemic population decreased rapidly from 2015 (almost eliminated by 2030). In contrast, the growing population size of those cured with advanced liver disease meant DC, HCC, and liver-related mortality declined slowly. The estimated reduction in liver-related mortality from 2015 to 2030 in the combined HCV viraemic and cured population is 25% in the intermediate scenario. With declining HCV treatment uptake and ongoing individual-level risk of advanced liver disease complications, including among cirrhosis-cured individuals, Australia is unlikely to achieve all WHO HCV elimination targets by 2030.

Monitoring liver transplant rates in persons diagnosed with hepatitis C: a data linkage study, England 2008 to 2017

Introduction

Liver transplantation is an important measure of burden from hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated liver disease.

Aims

To describe transplant rates and survival in individuals with HCV infection from 2008 to 2017 in England through data linkage.

Methods

This is a retrospective observational cohort study. Laboratory reports of HCV infection were linked to the Liver Transplant Registry for individuals aged 15 years and over, first diagnosed between 1998 and 2017. We estimated age-sex standardised incidence rates and used Poisson regression to investigate predictors of liver transplantation and test for a change in incidence after introduction of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in 2014. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to calculate post-transplant survival rates.

Results

Of 124,238 individuals diagnosed with HCV infection, 1,480 were registered and 1,217 received a liver transplant. Of individuals registered, 1,395 had post-HCV cirrhosis and 636 had hepatocellular carcinoma (618 also had post-HCV cirrhosis). Median time from HCV diagnosis to transplant was 3.4 years (interquartile range: 1.3–6.8 years). Liver transplant rates were lower 2014–17 compared with 2011–13 (incidence rate ratio: 0.64; 95% confidence interval: 0.55–0.76). Survival rates were 93.4%, 79.9% and 67.9% at 1, 5 and 10 years, respectively. Data linkage showed minimal under-reporting of HCV in the transplant registry.

Conclusion

In the post-DAA era, liver transplant rates have fallen in individuals with HCV infection, showing early impact of HCV treatment scale-up; but the short time from HCV diagnosis to liver transplant suggests late diagnosis is a problem.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019-2030

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030.

METHODS

A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long-term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer.

RESULTS

Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000-6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000-7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100-3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100-6100) deaths in 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden.

Hospital discharges of hepatocellular carcinoma and non-alcohol related cirrhosis in the EU/EEA and United Kingdom: a descriptive analysis of 2004-2015 data

BACKGROUND

Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of mortality globally, comparable to that of HIV and TB. Most hepatitis deaths are related to liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with chronic hepatitis B and C infections. To examine the progress towards the elimination goals set in the global health sector strategy for viral hepatitis, we aimed to assess the impact of mortality-indicative morbidity.

METHODS

We retrieved inpatients and day cases hospital discharges data from the Eurostat hospital activities database, and analysed ICD-10 and ICD-9 specific codes related to primary HCC and non-alcohol related cirrhosis registered by European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries and United Kingdom (UK) for 2004 to 2015.

RESULTS

In 2015, 20 countries (45.7% of total EU/EEA/UK population) reported 13,236 (Range 0-6294) day cases and 36,012 (4-9097) inpatients discharges of HCC. Romania, Croatia, Luxembourg and UK reported increasing day cases discharge rates between 2004 and 2015; while HCC inpatients discharge rates increased overall during this period. There were 13,865 (0-5918) day cases and 56,176 (3-29,118) inpatients discharges reported for cirrhosis across the 20 countries in 2015. Over the 12 years, day cases discharge rates for cirrhosis increased in Romania, Croatia and UK. Though higher than for day cases, cirrhosis inpatients discharge rates remained stable.

CONCLUSIONS

The hospital burden of HCC and cirrhosis is high, with considerable inpatient load including sustained increasing trends in HCC discharge rates. Further interpretation in light of local health system contexts, and more robust harmonised data are needed to better understand the impact of the viral hepatitis epidemic in the region.

Increasing uptake of hepatitis C virus infection case-finding, testing, and treatment in primary care: evaluation of the HepCATT (Hepatitis C Assessment Through to Treatment) trial

Background

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a key cause of liver disease but can be cured in more than 95% of patients. Around 70 000 people in England may have undiagnosed HCV infection and many more will not have been treated. Interventions to increase case-finding in primary care are likely to be cost-effective; however, evidence of effective interventions is lacking. The Hepatitis C Assessment Through to Treatment (HepCATT) trial assessed whether a complex intervention in primary care could increase case-finding, testing, and treatment of HCV.

Aim

To investigate the feasibility and acceptability of the HepCATT intervention.

Design and setting

A qualitative study with primary care practice staff from practices in the south west of England taking part in the HepCATT trial.

Method

Semi-structured interviews were carried out with GPs, nurses, and practice staff to ascertain their views of the HepCATT intervention at least 1 month after implementing the intervention in their practice. Normalisation process theory, which outlines the social processes involved in intervention implementation, informed thematic data analysis.

Results

Participants appreciated the HepCATT intervention for increasing knowledge and awareness of HCV. Although some initial technical difficulties were reported, participants saw the benefits of using the audit tool to systematically identify patients with HCV infection risk factors and found it straightforward to use. Participants valued the opportunity to discuss HCV testing with patients, especially those who may not have been previously aware of HCV risk. Future implementation should consider fully integrating software systems and additional resources to screen patient lists and conduct tests.

Conclusion

When supported by a complex intervention, primary care can play a crucial role in identifying and caring for patients with HCV infection, to help stem the HCV epidemic, and prevent HCV-related illness.

Assessment of Treatment Strategies to Achieve Hepatitis C Elimination in Canada Using a Validated Model

Importance

Achievement of the World Health Organization (WHO) target of eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030 will require an increase in key services, including harm reduction, HCV screening, and HCV treatment initiatives in member countries. These data are not available for Canada but are important for informing a national HCV elimination strategy.

Objective

To use a decision analytical model to explore the association of different treatment strategies with HCV epidemiology and HCV-associated mortality in Canada and to assess the levels of service increase needed to meet the WHO elimination targets by 2030.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Study participants in this decision analytical model included individuals with hepatitis C virus infection in Canada. Five HCV treatment scenarios (optimistic, very aggressive, aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease) were applied using a previously validated Markov-type mathematical model. The optimistic and very aggressive treatment scenarios modeled a sustained annual treatment of 10 200 persons and 14 000 persons, respectively, from 2018 to 2030. The aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease scenarios assessed decreases in treatment uptake from 14 000 persons to 10 000 persons per year, 12 000 persons to 8500 persons per year, and 12 000 persons to 4500 persons per year, respectively, between 2018 and 2030.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hepatitis C virus prevalence and HCV-associated health outcomes were assessed for each of the 5 treatment scenarios with the goal of identifying strategies to achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

Results

An estimated mean 180 142 persons (95% CI, 122 786-196 862 persons) in Canada had chronic HCV infection at the end of 2017. The optimistic and gradual decrease scenarios estimated a decrease in HCV prevalence from 180 142 persons to 37 246 persons and 37 721 persons, respectively, by 2030. Relative to 2015, this decrease in HCV prevalence was associated with 74%, 69%, and 69% reductions in the prevalence of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-associated mortality, respectively, leading to HCV elimination by 2030. More aggressive treatment uptake (very aggressive scenario) could result in goal achievement up to 3 years earlier than 2030, although a rapid decrease in the initiation of treatment (rapid decrease scenario) would preclude Canada from reaching the HCV elimination goal by 2030.

Conclusions and Relevance

The study findings suggest that Canada could meet the WHO goals for HCV elimination by 2030 by sustaining the current national HCV treatment rate during the next decade. This target will not be achieved if treatment uptake is allowed to decrease rapidly.

Detachable low dead space syringes for the prevention of hepatitis C among people who inject drugs in Bristol, UK: an economic evaluation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Traditional detachable syringes used by people who inject drugs (PWID) retain larger volumes of blood when the plunger is depressed than syringes with fixed needles-referred to as high (HDSS) and low dead space syringes (LDSS), respectively. Evidence suggests that using HDSS may result in greater hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk than LDSS. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of an intervention to introduce detachable LDSS in a needle and syringe programme (NSP).

DESIGN

HCV transmission and disease progression model with cost-effectiveness analysis using a health-care perspective. Detachable LDSS are associated with increased costs (£0.008) per syringe, yearly staff training costs (£536) and an estimated decreased risk (by 47.5%) of HCV transmission compared with HDSS. The intervention was modelled for 10 years, with costs and health benefits (quality-adjusted life-years: QALYs) tracked over 50 years.

SETTING

Bristol, UK.

PARTICIPANTS AND CASES

PWID attending NSP.

INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR

Gradual replacement of HDSS at NSP, with 8, 58 and 95% of HDSS being replaced by detachable LDSS in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively. Comparator was continuing use of HDSS.

MEASUREMENTS

Net monetary benefit. Benefits were measured in QALYs.

FINDINGS

Introducing detachable LDSS was associated with a small increase in intervention costs (£21 717) compared with not introducing detachable LDSS, but considerable savings in HCV-related treatment and care costs (£4 138 118). Overall cost savings were £4 116 401 over 50 years and QALY gains were 1000, with an estimated 30% reduction in new infections over the 10-year intervention period. In all sensitivity analyses, detachable LDSS resulted in cost savings and additional QALYs. Threshold analyses suggested that detachable LDSS would need to reduce HCV transmission risk of HDSS by 0.26% to be cost-saving and 0.04% to be cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Replacing high dead space syringes with detachable low dead space syringes in needle and syringe programmes in the United Kingdom is likely to be a cost-saving approach for reducing hepatitis C virus transmission.

Cost effectiveness of an intervention to increase uptake of hepatitis C virus testing and treatment (HepCATT): cluster randomised controlled trial in primary care

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of a complex intervention in primary care that aims to increase uptake of hepatitis C virus (HCV) case finding and treatment.

DESIGN

Pragmatic, two armed, practice level, cluster randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

45 general practices in South West England (22 randomised to intervention and 23 to control arm). Outcome data were collected from all intervention practices and 21/23 control practices. Total number of flagged patients was 24 473 (about 5% of practice list).

INTERVENTION

Electronic algorithm and flag on practice systems identifying patients with HCV risk markers (such as history of opioid dependence or HCV tests with no evidence of referral to hepatology), staff educational training in HCV, and practice posters/leaflets to increase patients' awareness. Flagged patients were invited by letter for an HCV test (with one follow-up) and had on-screen pop-ups to encourage opportunistic testing. The intervention lasted one year, with practices recruited April to December 2016.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome: uptake of HCV testing.

SECONDARY OUTCOMES

number of positive HCV tests and yield (proportion HCV positive); HCV treatment assessment at hepatology; cost effectiveness.

RESULTS

Baseline HCV testing of flagged patients (six months before study start) was 608/13 097 (4.6%) in intervention practices and 380/11 376 (3.3%) in control practices. During the study 2071 (16%) of flagged patients in the intervention practices and 1163 (10%) in control practices were tested for HCV: overall intervention effect as an adjusted rate ratio of 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.21 to 2.08; P<0.001). HCV antibodies were detected in 129 patients from intervention practices and 51 patients from control practices (adjusted rate ratio 2.24, 1.47 to 3.42) with weak evidence of an increase in yield (6.2% v 4.4%; adjusted risk ratio 1.40, 0.99 to 1.95). Referral and assessment increased in intervention practices compared with control practices (adjusted rate ratio 5.78, 1.6 to 21.6) with a risk difference of 1.3 per 1000 and a "number needed to help" of one extra HCV diagnosis, referral, and assessment per 792 (95% confidence interval 558 to 1883) patients flagged. The average cost of HCV case finding was £4.03 (95% confidence interval £2.27 to £5.80) per at risk patient and £3165 per additional patient assessed at hepatology. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio was £6212 per quality adjusted life year (QALY), with 92.5% probability of being below £20 000 per QALY.

CONCLUSION

HepCATT had a modest impact but is a low cost intervention that merits optimisation and implementation as part of an NHS strategy to increase HCV testing and treatment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN61788850.

Impact of HIV and chronic kidney disease comorbidities on hepatitis C treatment choices, drug-drug interactions and hepatitis C cure

Background Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infection and chronic kidney disease add challenges to hepatitis C virus treatment. Objective To conduct a comparative study of treatment choices, drug–drug interactions and clinical outcomes in hepatitis C mono-infected patients, or those with HIV or chronic kidney disease comorbidities. Setting Hepatitis C treatment centers of West Midlands England, United Kingdom. Method An observational study was conducted analyzing datasets of all hepatitis C patients that were referred to a large tertiary liver unit in the West Midlands, UK between July 2015 and January 2018. Patients aged ≥ 18 years with diagnosis of hepatitis C alone or co-infected with HIV or comorbid with chronic kidney disease were eligible. Main outcome measures The treatment choices, relevant potential drug–drug interactions and sustained virologic response 12 weeks post end of treatment were assessed. Results Out of 313 patients, 154 (49.2%) were hepatitis C mono-infected, 124 (39.6%) hepatitis C/HIV co-infected and 35 (11.2%) were hepatitis C/chronic kidney disease comorbid. There were 151 (98.1%) of hepatitis C mono-infected, 110 (88.7%) of hepatitis C/HIV and 20 (57.1%) of hepatitis C/chronic kidney disease patients treated with 1st line regimens. Significantly more patients who had co-morbidity with either HIV or chronic kidney disease were prescribed 2nd line regimens (8.1% and 37.1% respectively), compared to patients with hepatitis C mono-infection (1.9%) (P value < 0.05). Comorbid patients (12.1% of HIV and 25.8% of chronic kidney disease) were more likely to required drug–drug interactions advice (grade 5) than hepatitis C mono-infected (1.8%). Higher cure rates were observed in hepatitis C mono-infected (95.33%), hepatitis C/HIV (96.1%) compared to hepatitis C/chronic kidney disease patients (90.3%). Conclusion This study shows that treatment pathways permitting access to individual treatment adjustments in accordance with comorbidities and with consideration of drug–drug interaction in a multi-disciplinary team, provides successful outcomes in hepatitis C patients co-morbid with HIV or chronic kidney disease.

Estimating Social Variation in the Health Effects of Changes in Health Care Expenditure

Background. A common aim of health expenditure is to reduce unfair inequalities in health. Although previous research has attempted to estimate the total health effects of changes in health expenditure, little is known about how changes affect different groups in the population. Methods. We propose a general framework for disaggregating the total health effects of changes in health expenditure by social groups. This can be performed indirectly when the estimate of the total health effect has first been disaggregated by a secondary factor (e.g., disease area) that can be linked to social characteristics. This is illustrated with an application to the English National Health Service. Evidence on the health effects of expenditure across 23 disease areas is combined with data on the distribution of disease-specific hospital utilization by age, sex, and area-level deprivation. Results. We find that the health effects from NHS expenditure changes are produced largely through disease areas in which individuals from more deprived areas account for a large share of health care utilization, namely, respiratory and neurologic disease and mental health. We estimate that 26% of the total health effect from a change in expenditure would accrue to the fifth of the population living in the most deprived areas, compared with 14% to the fifth living in the least deprived areas. Conclusions. Our approach can be useful for evaluating the health inequality impacts of changing health budgets or funding alternative health programs. However, it requires robust estimates of how health expenditure affects health outcomes. Our example analysis also relied on strong assumptions about the relationship between health care utilization and health effects across population groups.

Rewiring Host Signaling: Hepatitis C Virus in Liver Pathogenesis

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of liver disease including metabolic disease, fibrosis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). HCV induces and promotes liver disease progression by perturbing a range of survival, proliferative, and metabolic pathways within the proinflammatory cellular microenvironment. The recent breakthrough in antiviral therapy using direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) can cure >90% of HCV patients. However, viral cure cannot fully eliminate the HCC risk, especially in patients with advanced liver disease or comorbidities. HCV induces an epigenetic viral footprint that promotes a pro-oncogenic hepatic signature, which persists after DAA cure. In this review, we summarize the main signaling pathways deregulated by HCV infection, with potential impact on liver pathogenesis. HCV-induced persistent signaling patterns may serve as biomarkers for the stratification of HCV-cured patients at high risk of developing HCC. Moreover, these signaling pathways are potential targets for novel chemopreventive strategies.

Cost-Effectiveness of One-Time Birth Cohort Screening for Hepatitis C as Part of the National Health Service Health Check Program in England

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Birth cohort screening for the hepatitis C virus (HCV) has been implemented in the US, but there is little evidence of its cost-effectiveness in England. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of one-time HCV screening for individuals born between 1950 and 1979 as part of the National Health Service health check in England, a health check for adults aged 40 to 74 years in primary care.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to analyze add-on HCV testing to the National Health Service health check for individuals in birth cohorts between 1950 and 1979, versus current background HCV testing only, over a lifetime horizon. The model used data from a back-calculation model of the burden of HCV in England, sentinel surveillance of HCV testing, and published literature. Results are presented from a health service perspective in pounds in 2017, as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per quality-adjusted life years gained.

RESULTS

The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from £7648 to £24 434, and £18 681 to £46 024, across birth cohorts when considering 2 sources of HCV transition probabilities. The intervention is most likely to be cost-effective for those born in the 1970s, and potentially cost-effective for those born from 1955 to 1969. The model results were most sensitive to the source of HCV transition probabilities, the probability of referral and receiving treatment, and the HCV prevalence among testers. The maximum value of future research across all birth cohorts was £11.3 million at £20 000 per quality-adjusted life years gained.

CONCLUSION

Birth cohort screening is likely to be cost-effective for younger birth cohorts, although considerable uncertainty exists for other birth cohorts. Further studies are warranted to reduce uncertainty in cost-effectiveness and consider the acceptability of the intervention.

Randomised controlled trial conducted in injecting equipment provision sites to compare the effectiveness of different hepatitis C treatment regimens in people who inject drugs: A Direct obserVed therApy versus fortNightly CollEction study for HCV treatment-ADVANCE HCV protocol study

INTRODUCTION

Hepatitis C is a blood-borne virus (HCV) that can seriously damage the liver and is spread mainly through blood-to-blood contact with an infected person. Over 85% of individuals who have HCV in Scotland became infected following injecting drug use. Since people who inject drugs (PWID) are the main source of new infections, theoretical modelling has suggested that treatment of HCV infection in PWID may effectively reduce HCV prevalence and accomplish elimination. This protocol describes a clinical trial delivering HCV treatment within injecting equipment provision sites (IEPS) in Tayside, Scotland.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

PWID attending IEPS are tested for HCV and, if they are chronically infected with HCV and eligible, invited to receive treatment within the IEPS. They are randomised to one of three treatment regimens; daily observed treatment, treatment dispensed every 2 weeks and treatment dispensed every 2 weeks together with an adherence psychological intervention (administered before treatment begins). The primary outcome is comparison of the rate of successful treatment (SVR12) in each treatment group. Secondary analyses include assessment of adherence, reinfection rates, viral resistance to treatment and interaction of the treatment with illicit drugs.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The ADVANCE (A Direct obserVed therApy versus fortNightly CollEction) HCV trial was given favourable opinion by East of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (LR/17/ES/0089) prior to commencement.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS

European Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT) (2017-001039-38) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03236506).

No evidence for higher rates of hepatocellular carcinoma after direct-acting antiviral treatment: a meta-analysis

Aim:

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United States. Achieving sustained viral response with interferon (IFN) treatment reduces the risk from 3%-5% to 0.5%-1% annually. Several studies reported unexpectedly high rates of HCC after treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). The aim of our study was to compare HCC rates in DAA-, IFN-treated and untreated populations.

Methods:

A literature search was conducted using ScienceDirect, Ovid®, Web of Science and MEDLINE through January 2019. Studies were included if they measured rates of de novo or recurrent HCC (following curative treatment) in HCV-infected persons. We included 138 studies (n = 177,512). Simple pooling of data and meta-analysis were performed, using the random effects method.

Results:

Mean age was higher in the DAA-treated vs. IFN-treated group (58.4 years vs. 52.6 years; P = 0.0073), as were diabetes prevalence (34.5% vs. 11.7%; P ≤ 0.001) and incident cirrhosis (47.8% vs. 34.2%, P = 0.0017). The incidence rate of de novo HCC was 2.01/100 person-years (py) (95%CI: 1.38, 2.67) in the DAA group and 1.45/100py (95%CI: 0.98, 1.94) in the IFN-treated group. HCC recurred at 16.76/100py (95%CI: 10.75, 22.91) in the DAA-treated group vs. 20.04/100py (95%CI: 2.58, 45.21) after IFN. After adjusting for factors such as age and cirrhosis, the hazard ratio was 0.58 (95%CI: 0.20, 1.07) for HCC occurrence and 0.59 (95%CI: 0.24, 1.03) for HCC recurrence after DAA treatment compared to IFN-based treatment.

Conclusion:

We did not find evidence for increased rates of HCC in DAA-treated compared with IFN-treated patients. Compared to those treated with IFN, older patients with additional risk factors for HCC were treated with DAAs. This imbalance appears to explain the higher numerical incidence of HCC among DAA-treated patients.

Seroprevalence and demographic factors associated with hepatitis B, hepatitis C and HIV infection from a hospital emergency department testing programme, London, United Kingdom, 2015 to 2016

BackgroundProgress towards HIV, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination requires local prevalence estimates and linkage to care (LTC) of undiagnosed or disengaged cases.AimWe aimed to estimate seroprevalence, factors associated with positive blood-borne virus (BBV) serology and numbers needed to screen (NNS) to detect a new BBV diagnosis and achieve full LTC from emergency department (ED) BBV testing.MethodsDuring a 9-month programme in an ED in east London, England, testing was offered to adult attendees having a full blood count (FBC). We estimated factors associated with positive BBV serology using logistic regression and NNS as the inverse of seroprevalence. Estimates were weighted to the age, sex and ethnicity of the FBC population.ResultsOf 6,211 FBC patients tested, 217 (3.5%) were positive for at least one BBV. Weighted BBV seroprevalence was 4.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.6-4.9). Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) of positive BBV serology were elevated among patients that were: male (aOR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.9-3.9), 40-59 years old (aOR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.4-2.7), of Black British/Black other ethnicity (aOR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.2-2.8) or had no fixed address (aOR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.5-5.5). NNS to detect a new BBV diagnosis was 154 (95% CI: 103-233) and 135 (95% CI: 93-200) to achieve LTC.ConclusionsThe low NNS suggests routine BBV screening in EDs may be worthwhile. Those considering similar programmes should use our findings to inform their assessments of anticipated public health benefits.

Mapping the hepatitis C cascade of care in people attending drug treatment services in England: A data linkage study

INTRODUCTION

Hepatitis C (HCV) infection in England primarily affects people who inject drugs (PWID). We describe persons HCV tested, estimate incidence and establish the cascade of care (CoC) for people engaging with drug services.

METHODS

Persons testing for HCV in drug services in Sentinel Surveillance of Blood Borne Virus Testing (SSBBV) between 2008 and 2016 were linked with people attending drug services in the National Drug and Treatment Monitoring System (NDTMS). We describe risk characteristics, establish the CoC, and estimate HCV incidence in PWID diagnosed in drug services.

RESULTS

Of 46,721 persons tested for anti-HCV in SSBBV in drug services, 29,773 (63.7%) linked to NDTMS. Of these, 9100 (30.6%) were antiV positive and anti-HCV positivity was 45.0% in persons reporting urgent housing problems and 43.8% in persons reporting ever injecting. Among persons anti-HCV positive, half had ≥1 positive anti-HCV test. For persons' first anti-HCV positive between 2008 and 2013 (n = 3123), 74.9% were HCV RNA tested, of whom 71.2% were RNA positive, and of these, 14.0% had evidence of interferon-based treatment, with 52.8% achieving cure. Among PWID, HCV incidence was 8.7 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 8.1-9.2).

CONCLUSION

Through record linkage of surveillance datasets, we estimated the HCV CoC for people attending drug services, providing a benchmark from which to monitor the impact of strategies to scale-up prevention, testing, and curative treatment with direct acting antivirals. Our study highlights wasteful repeated testing and poor linkage to care for this high risk population which need to be addressed.

Monitoring the hepatitis C epidemic in England and evaluating intervention scale-up using routinely collected data

In England, 160 000 individuals were estimated to be chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) in 2005 and the burden of severe HCV-related liver disease has increased steadily for the past 15 years. Direct-acting antiviral treatments can clear infection in most patients, motivating HCV elimination targets. However, the current burden of HCV is unknown and new methods are required to monitor progress. We employed a Bayesian back-calculation approach, combining data on severe HCV-related liver disease and disease progression, to reconstruct historical HCV incidence and estimate current prevalence in England. We explicitly modelled infections occurring in people who inject drugs, the key risk group, allowing information on the size of this population and surveillance data on HCV prevalence to inform recent incidence. We estimated that there were 143 000 chronic infections in 2015 (95% credible interval 123 000-161 000), with 34% and 54% in those with recent and past injecting drug use, respectively. Following the planned scale-up of new treatments, chronic infections were predicted to fall to 113 400 (94 900-132 400) by the end of 2018 and to 89 500 (71 300-108 600) by the end of 2020. Numbers developing severe HCV-related liver disease were predicted to fall by at least 24% from 2015 to 2020. Thus, we describe a coherent framework to monitor progress using routinely collected data, which can be extended to incorporate additional data sources. Planned treatment scale-up is likely to achieve 2020 WHO targets for HCV morbidity, but substantial efforts will be required to ensure that HCV testing and patient engagement are sufficiently high.

The Burden of Chronic Hepatitis C in China From 2004 to 2050: An Individual-Based Modeling Study

The launch of new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) is expected to substantially reduce the burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in China. However, the effect of these changes has not yet been modeled in China. Therefore, we aim to predict the burden of HCV-related diseases in China by simulating different scenarios that incorporate recent therapeutic advances of HCV and China's current screening strategy. We developed an individual-based microsimulation Markov model that simulated disease progression of HCV-infected patients in China from 2004 to 2050. We simulated four scenarios with different assumptions about treatment, including a natural history scenario, a pre-DAAs scenario, a DAA treatment for all patients with a METAVIR fibrosis score ≥F3 (DAAs [≥F3]) scenario, and a DAAs (≥F0) scenario. The introduction of DAAs is predicted to have great impacts on the burden of HCV in China, particularly under the DAAs (≥F0) scenario in which we rapidly expand DAAs to all HCV-infected patients (≥F0) in 2021. Under this scenario, prevalence of chronic HCV is expected to peak at 10.75 million (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.30-12.85) around 2020 and then decrease to 7.92 million (95% CI, 5.41-10.08) in 2050. Conclusion: If the future increasing burden of HCV-related diseases is to be averted, China needs to start launching the new DAA treatment and rapidly increase the number of patients treated. However, to maximize the benefits of new DAAs, expanded screening is necessary to identify more cases that require treatment in the short term. Without these changes, the HCV burden in China will remain high in the future.

Australia on track to achieve WHO HCV elimination targets following rapid initial DAA treatment uptake: A modelling study

Subsidized direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment recently became available to all adults living with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Australia. Based on rapid uptake (32 600 people initiated DAA in 2016), we estimated the impact on HCV epidemiology and mortality in Australia and determined if Australia can meet the WHO HCV elimination targets by 2030. Using a mathematical model, we simulated pessimistic, intermediate and optimistic DAA treatment scenarios in Australia over 2016-2030. We assumed treatment and testing rates were initially higher for advanced fibrosis and the same across HCV transmission risk level sub-populations. We also assumed constant testing rates after 2016. We compared the results to the 2015 level and a counterfactual (IFN-based) scenario. During 2016-2030, we estimated an intermediate DAA treatment scenario (2016, 32 600 treated; 2017, 21 370 treated; 2018 17 100 treated; 2019 and beyond, 13 680 treated each year) would avert 40 420 new HCV infections, 13 260 liver-related deaths (15 320 in viraemic; -2060 in cured) and 10 730 HCC cases, equating to a 53%, 63% and 75% reduction, respectively, compared to the IFN-based scenario. The model also estimated that Australia will meet the WHO targets of incidence and treatment by 2028. Time to a 65% reduction in liver-related mortality varied considerably between HCV viraemic only cases (2026) and all cases (2047). Based on a feasible DAA treatment scenario incorporating declining uptake, Australia should meet key WHO HCV elimination targets in 10 to15 years. The pre-DAA escalation in those with advanced liver disease makes the achievement of the liver-related mortality target difficult.

Feasibility of reaching world health organization targets for hepatitis C and the cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies

New drugs for treating hepatitis C have considerably increased the probability of being cured. Treatment uptake, however, is still low. The objectives of this study were to analyse the impact of initiatives that may increase the proportion of infected people on treatment and interventions aimed at reducing the incidence of new infection among people who inject drugs. A compartmental model for Norway was used to simulate hepatitis C and related complications. We analysed 2 different screening initiatives aimed to increase the proportion of infected people on treatment. Interventions aiming at reducing the hepatitis C incidence analysed were opioid substitution therapy (OST), a clean needle and syringe programme and a combination of both. The most cost-effective strategy for increasing hepatitis C treatment uptake was screening by general practitioners while simultaneously allowing for all infected people to be treated. We estimated that this intervention reduces the incidence of hepatitis C by 2030 by 63% compared with the current incidence. The 2 harm reduction strategies both reduced the incidence of hepatitis C by about 70%. Combining an increase in the current clean needles and syringe programme with OST was clearly the most cost-effective option. This strategy would reduce the incidence of hepatitis C by 80% compared with the current incidence by 2030. Thus, interventions to reduce the burden and spread of hepatitis C are cost-effective. Reaching the WHO target of a 90% reduction in hepatitis C incidence by 2030 may be difficult without combining different initiatives.

An innovative approach to increase viral hepatitis diagnoses and linkage to care using opt-out testing and an integrated care pathway in a London Emergency Department

Therapies that halt progression of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) and achieve a cure for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) have encouraged development of innovative strategies to diagnose and link patients to care. We describe the prevalence and risk factors for HBV and HCV infections and use of an opt-out hepatitis testing and integrated linkage to care pathway in a London Emergency Department (ED). ED patients aged ≥16 years having routine blood tests from 15 February-28 March 2016 were tested for hepatitis, unless opted out. Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and hepatitis C antibody tests (HCV-Ab, including a confirmatory hepatitis C antigen test (HCV-Ag)) were pre-selected on electronic blood test requests. Linkage to care (attending one clinic appointment) was offered to HBsAg and HCV-Ag patients (new or known-disengaged with care diagnoses). Weighted prevalence estimates and risk factors for seropositivity adjusted by demographics and survey weights were calculated using logistic regression. Hepatitis testing uptake was 56% (3,290/5,865). Overall, 26 HBsAg (10 new diagnoses) and 63 HCV-Ab patients were identified of which 32 were HCV-Ag positive (10 new diagnoses). Weighted seroprevalence of HBsAg was 0.50% (95% CI 0.3-0.8%); HCV-Ab 2.0% (95% CI 1.5-2.7%) and HCV-Ag 1.2% (95% CI 0.8-1.7%). Risk factors for infection were being male (HBsAg: aOR 4.1, 95% CI 1.5-11.3), of non-White British ethnicity (HBsAg: aOR>11) or being homeless (HCV-Ag: aOR 18.9, 95% CI 6.9-51.4). We achieved a high linkage to care uptake for HBsAg (93%) and HCV-Ag (78%) among patients who were contacted and required linkage. A pre-selected hepatitis testing ordering system facilitated a high testing uptake. New and disengaged with care diagnoses and a high HCV prevalence were identified demonstrating the potential to identify and link patients to care in this setting. Strategies connecting clinical care with community outreach services are key for improving patient linkage to care.

HCV-induced EGFR-ERK signaling promotes a pro-inflammatory and pro-angiogenic signature contributing to liver cancer pathogenesis

HCV is a major risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). HCC development in chronically infected HCV patients has until now been attributed to persistent inflammation and interference of viral proteins with host cell signaling. Since activation of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) presents a crucial step in HCV entry, we aimed at investigating whether EGFR signaling may contribute to the pathogenesis of HCV-related HCC. By applying microarray analysis, we generated a gene expression signature for secreted proteins in HCV-infected hepatoma cells. This gene signature was enriched for inflammatory and angiogenic processes; both crucially involved in HCC development. RT-qPCR analysis, conducted on the entire list of upregulated genes, confirmed induction of 11 genes (AREG, IL8, CCL20, CSF1, GDF15, IGFBP1, VNN3, THBS1 and PAI-1) in a virus titer- and replication-dependent manner. EGFR activation in hepatoma cells largely mimicked the gene signature seen in the infectious HCV model. Further, the EGFR-ERK pathway, but not Akt signaling, was responsible for this gene expression profile. Finally, microarray analysis conducted on clinical data from the GEO database, revealed that our validated gene expression profile is significantly represented in livers of patients with HCV-related liver pathogenesis (cirrhosis and HCC) compared to healthy livers. Taken together, our data indicate that persistent activation of EGFR-ERK signaling in chronically infected HCV patients may induce a specific pro-inflammatory and pro-angiogenic signature that presents a new mechanism by which HCV can promote liver cancer pathogenesis. A better understanding of the key factors in HCV-related oncogenesis, may efficiently direct HCC drug development.

Cost of illness of hepatocellular carcinoma in Japan: A time trend and future projections

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth leading cause of death in Japan. The aim of this study was to calculate the social burden of HCC using the cost of illness (COI) method, and to identify the key factors driving changes in the economic burden of HCC.

METHODS

Utilizing government-based statistical nationwide data, the cost of illness (COI) method was used to estimate the COI for 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2014 to make predictions for 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2029. The COI comprised direct and indirect costs (morbidity and mortality costs) of HCC.

RESULTS

From 1996 to 2014, COI trended downward. In 2014, COI (579.2 billion JPY) was 0.71 times greater than that in 1996 (816.2 billion JPY). Mortality costs accounted for more than 70% of total COI and were a major contributing factor to the decrease in COI. It was predicted that COI would continue a downward trend until 2029, and that the rate of decline would be similar.

CONCLUSIONS

COI of HCC has been decreasing since 1996. Treatment of patients infected with hepatitis C virus using newly introduced technologies has high therapeutic effectiveness, and will affect the future prevalence of HCC. These policies and technologies may accelerate the downward tendency of COI, and the relative economic burden of HCC is likely to continue to decrease.

The short-term incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma is not increased after hepatitis C treatment with direct-acting antivirals: An ERCHIVES study

Recent studies have reported higher rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in individuals treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). However, making definitive conclusions has been challenging because of the heterogeneous populations and methodologies of these reports. We investigated whether DAA use is associated with higher rates of incident HCC compared to treatment with interferon (IFN)-based regimens. We performed a retrospective, population-based cohort study using the Electronically Retrieved Cohort of HCV Infected Veterans (ERCHIVES) database. In a cohort of 17,836 persons, sustained virological response (SVR) was achieved by 66.6% and 96.2% of the IFN and DAA groups, respectively. Among all treated persons, risk of HCC was not higher in the DAA group compared to the IFN group (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.55, 2.08). Among persons with cirrhosis who achieved SVR, neither the HCC incidence rate nor HCC-free survival were significantly different in the DAA group compared to the IFN group (21.2 vs. 22.8 per 1,000 person-years; P = 0.78 and log-rank P = 0.17, respectively). Untreated persons with cirrhosis had a significantly higher HCC incidence rate (45.3 per 1,000 person-years) compared to those treated with either IFN or DAAs (P = 0.03). Both groups of treated persons had significantly lower probability of HCC development compared to untreated persons (log-rank, P = 0.0004).

CONCLUSION

DAA treatment is not associated with a higher risk of HCC in persons with cirrhosis with chronic HCV infection in the short term. Previously reported higher rates of HCC associated with DAA treatment may be explained by both the presence of relatively fewer baseline HCC risk factors in persons treated with IFN as well as selection bias, given that DAA regimens were used to treat persons at higher risk for developing HCC. (Hepatology 2018;67:2244-2253).

Impact of current and scaled-up levels of hepatitis C prevention and treatment interventions for people who inject drugs in three UK settings-what is required to achieve the WHO's HCV elimination targets?

AIMS

To estimate the impact of existing high-coverage needle and syringe provision (HCNSP, defined as obtaining more than one sterile needle and syringe per injection reported) and opioid substitution therapy (OST) on hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) in three UK settings and to determine required scale-up of interventions, including HCV treatment, needed to reach the World Health Organization (WHO) target of reducing HCV incidence by 90% by 2030.

DESIGN

HCV transmission modelling using UK empirical estimates for effect of OST and/or HCNSP on individual risk of HCV acquisition.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Three UK cities with varying chronic HCV prevalence (Bristol 45%, Dundee 26%, Walsall 19%), OST (72-81%) and HCNSP coverage (28-56%).

MEASUREMENTS

Relative change in new HCV infections throughout 2016-30 if current interventions were stopped. Scale-up of HCNSP, OST and HCV treatment required to achieve the WHO elimination target.

FINDINGS

Removing HCNSP or OST would increase the number of new HCV infections throughout 2016 to 2030 by 23-64 and 92-483%, respectively. Conversely, scaling-up these interventions to 80% coverage could achieve a 29 or 49% reduction in Bristol and Walsall, respectively, whereas Dundee may achieve a 90% decrease in incidence with current levels of intervention because of existing high levels of HCV treatment (47-58 treatments per 1000 PWID). If OST and HCNSP are scaled-up, Walsall and Bristol can achieve the same impact by treating 14 or 40 per 1000 PWID annually, respectively (currently two and nine treatments per 1000 PWID), while 18 and 43 treatments per 1000 PWID would be required if OST and HCNSP are not scaled-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Current opioid substitution therapy and high-coverage needle and syringe provision coverage is averting substantial hepatitis C transmission in the United Kingdom. Maintaining this coverage while getting current drug injectors onto treatment can reduce incidence by 90% by 2030.

Establishing the cascade of care for hepatitis C in England-benchmarking to monitor impact of direct acting antivirals

Little is known about engagement and retention in care of people diagnosed with chronic hepatitis C (HCV) in England. Establishing a cascade of care informs targeted interventions for improving case finding, referral, treatment uptake and retention in care. Using data from the sentinel surveillance of blood-borne virus (SSBBV) testing between 2005 and 2014, we investigate the continuum of care of those tested for HCV in England. Persons ≥1 year old with an anti-HCV test and subsequent RNA tests between 2005 and 2014 reported to SSBBV were collated. We describe the cascade of care, as the patient pathway from a diagnostic test, referral into care, treatment and patient outcomes. Between 2005 and 2014, 2 390 507 samples were tested for anti-HCV, corresponding to 1 766 515 persons. A total of 53 038 persons (35 190 men and 17 165 women) with anti-HCV positive were newly reported to SSBBV. An RNA test was conducted on 77.0% persons who were anti-HCV positive, 72.3% of whom were viraemic (RNA positive) during this time period, 21.4% had evidence of treatment and 3130 49.5% had evidence of a sustained virological response (SVR). In multivariable models, confirmation of viraemia by RNA test varied by age and region/test setting; evidence of treatment varied by age, year of test and region/test setting; and SVR varied by age, year of test and region/setting of test. In conclusion, our findings provide HCV cascade of care estimates prior to the introduction of direct acting antivirals. These findings provide important baseline cascade estimates to benchmark progress towards elimination of HCV as a major public health threat.

Assessing uncertainty in the burden of hepatitis C virus: Comparison of estimated disease burden and treatment costs in the UK

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major and growing public health concern. We need to know the expected health burden and treatment cost, and understand uncertainty in those estimates, to inform policymaking and future research. Two models that have been important in informing treatment guidelines and assessments of HCV burden were compared by simulating cohorts of individuals with chronic HCV infection initially aged 20, 35 and 50 years. One model predicts that health losses (measured in quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) and treatment costs decrease with increasing initial age of the patients, whilst the other model predicts that below 40 years, costs increase and QALY losses change little with age, and above 40 years, they decline with increasing age. Average per-patient costs differ between the models by up to 38%, depending on the patients' initial age. One model predicts double the total number, and triple the peak annual incidence, of liver transplants compared to the other model. One model predicts 55%-314% more deaths than the other, depending on the patients' initial age. The main sources of difference between the models are estimated progression rates between disease states and rates of health service utilization associated with different disease states and, in particular, the age dependency of these parameters. We conclude that decision-makers need to be aware that uncertainties in the health burden and economic cost of HCV disease have important consequences for predictions of future need for care and cost-effectiveness of interventions to avert HCV transmission, and further quantification is required to inform decisions.

Risk factors and prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of precision medicine

Patients who develop chronic fibrotic liver disease, caused by viral or metabolic aetiologies, are at a high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Even after complete HCC tumour resection or ablation, the carcinogenic tissue microenvironment in the remnant liver can give rise to recurrent de novo HCC tumours, which progress into incurable, advanced-stage disease in most patients. Thus, early detection and prevention of HCC development is, in principle, the most impactful strategy to improve patient prognosis. However, a "one-size-fits-all" approach to HCC screening for early tumour detection, as recommended by clinical practice guidelines, is utilised in less than 20% of the target population, and the performance of screening modalities, including ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein, is suboptimal. Furthermore, optimal screening strategies for emerging at-risk patient populations, such as those with chronic hepatitis C after viral cure, or those with non-cirrhotic, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease remain controversial. New HCC biomarkers and imaging modalities may improve the sensitivity and specificity of HCC detection. Clinical and molecular HCC risk scores will enable precise HCC risk prediction followed by tailoured HCC screening of individual patients, maximising cost-effectiveness and optimising allocation of limited medical resources. Several aetiology-specific and generic HCC chemoprevention strategies are evolving. Epidemiological and experimental studies have identified candidate chemoprevention targets and therapies, including statins, anti-diabetic drugs, and selective molecular targeted agents, although their clinical testing has been limited by the lengthy process of cancer development that requires long-term, costly studies. Individual HCC risk prediction is expected to overcome the challenge by enabling personalised chemoprevention, targeting high-risk patients for precision HCC prevention and substantially improving the dismal prognosis of HCC.

Model projections on the impact of HCV treatment in the prevention of HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Europe

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Prevention of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) is critical for eliminating HCV in Europe. We estimated the impact of current and scaled-up HCV treatment with and without scaling up opioid substitution therapy (OST) and needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) across Europe over the next 10 years.

METHODS

We collected data on PWID HCV treatment rates, PWID prevalence, HCV prevalence, OST, and NSP coverage from 11 European settings. We parameterised an HCV transmission model to setting-specific data that project chronic HCV prevalence and incidence among PWID.

RESULTS

At baseline, chronic HCV prevalence varied from <25% (Slovenia/Czech Republic) to >55% (Finland/Sweden), and <2% (Amsterdam/Hamburg/Norway/Denmark/Sweden) to 5% (Slovenia/Czech Republic) of chronically infected PWID were treated annually. The current treatment rates using new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) may achieve observable reductions in chronic prevalence (38-63%) in 10 years in Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Amsterdam. Doubling the HCV treatment rates will reduce prevalence in other sites (12-24%; Belgium/Denmark/Hamburg/Norway/Scotland), but is unlikely to reduce prevalence in Sweden and Finland. Scaling-up OST and NSP to 80% coverage with current treatment rates using DAAs could achieve observable reductions in HCV prevalence (18-79%) in all sites. Using DAAs, Slovenia and Amsterdam are projected to reduce incidence to 2 per 100 person years or less in 10 years. Moderate to substantial increases in the current treatment rates are required to achieve the same impact elsewhere, from 1.4 to 3 times (Czech Republic and France), 5-17 times (France, Scotland, Hamburg, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, and Sweden), to 200 times (Finland). Scaling-up OST and NSP coverage to 80% in all sites reduces treatment scale-up needed by 20-80%.

CONCLUSIONS

The scale-up of HCV treatment and other interventions is needed in most settings to minimise HCV transmission among PWID in Europe.

LAY SUMMARY

Measuring the amount of HCV in the population of PWID is uncertain. To reduce HCV infection to minimal levels in Europe will require scale-up of both HCV treatment and other interventions that reduce injecting risk (especially OST and provision of sterile injecting equipment).

Quantum molecular modeling of hepatitis C virus inhibition through non-structural protein 5B polymerase receptor binding of C5-arylidene rhodanines

We have carried out high-level quantum chemical computations followed by molecular docking studies on a set of 17C₅-arylidene rhodanine isomers to provide insights into the binding modes with different reported binding pockets of the nonstructural protein 5B (NS5B) polymerase that contribute to the hepatitis C virus (HCV) inhibition. We optimized the multi-target profile of the selected rhodanine analogs to investigate potential non-nucleotide inhibitors (NNIs) by quantum chemical optimization of the 18 isomers followed by docking with quantum chemically optimized structures of each isomer with NS5B polymerase at multiple binding pockets. The binding affinities of the PP-I, PP-II and TP-II pockets of NS5B polymerase were analyzed for all the 17 isomers of 2-[(5Z)-5-(2,4-dichlorobenzylidene)-4-oxo-2-thioxo-1,3-thiazolidin-3-yl]-3-phenylpropanoic acid. On the basis of binding propensity at the different pockets and inhibitor constants, we ranked these isomers as potential candidates for the HCV inhibition. We have identified four isomers as promising NNIs of NS5B polymerase with comparable binding and inhibition to the standard (1,3) dichloro substituted isomer that exhibits in vitro activity and several other isomers as candidates in a "multi-targeted drug" approach.

Comorbidities and medications of patients with chronic hepatitis C under specialist care in the UK

Designing services with the capacity and expertise to meet the needs of the chronic hepatitis C (CHC) population in the era of direct acting antivirals (DAAs), and widening access to such treatments, requires detailed understanding of the characteristics and healthcare needs of the existing patient population. In this retrospective analysis of data from the National HCV Research UK Biobank between March 2012 and October 2014, the characteristics of the CHC population currently under specialist care in the UK were evaluated-with specific focus upon use of medications, adverse lifestyle choices, and comorbidities. Demographic data, risk factors for CHC acquisition, HCV genotype, liver disease status, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, and medication classes were collected. Data were analyzed by history of injecting drug use (IDU), age, and severity of liver disease. A total of 6278 patients (70.5% white; median age, 52 years) from 59 UK specialist centres were included; 59.1% of patients had acquired HCV through IDU. The prevalence of adverse lifestyle factors was significantly lower in non-IDU compared with previous IDU or recent IDU patients. Depression was common in the previous (50.8%) and recent IDU (68.1%) groups, compared with 27.6% in non-IDU patients. Cirrhosis was common (23.6%), and prevalence increased with age. We describe a heterogeneous, polymorbid, and aging population of CHC patients in secondary care, and demonstrate underrepresentation of injecting drug users within the current system. The implications of this present significant challenges to physicians and healthcare commissioners in designing services which are fit for purpose inthe DAA era.

Hepatitis C disease transmission and treatment uptake: impact on the cost-effectiveness of new direct-acting antiviral therapies

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment can reduce the incidence of future infections through removing opportunities for onward transmission. This benefit is not captured in conventional cost-effectiveness evaluations of treatment and is particularly relevant in patient groups with a high risk of transmission, such as those people who inject drugs (PWID), where the treatment rates have been historically low. This study aimed to quantify how reduced HCV transmission changes the cost-effectiveness of new direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens as a function of treatment uptake rates.

METHODS

An established model of HCV disease transmission and progression was used to quantify the impact of treatment uptake (10-100%), within the PWID population, on the cost-effectiveness of a DAA regimen versus pre-DAA standard of care, conducted using daclatasvir plus sofosbuvir in the UK setting as an illustrative example.

RESULTS

The consequences of reduced disease transmission due to treatment were associated with additional net monetary benefit of £24,304-£90,559 per patient treated at £20,000/QALY, when 10-100% of eligible patients receive treatment with 100% efficacy. Dependent on patient genotype, the cost-effectiveness of HCV treatment using daclatasvir plus sofosbuvir improved by 36-79% versus conventional analysis, at 10-100% treatment uptake in the PWID population.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated cost-effectiveness of HCV treatment was shown to improve as more patients are treated, suggesting that the value of DAA regimens to the NHS could be enhanced by improved treatment uptake rates among PWID. However, the challenge for the future will lie in achieving increased rates of treatment uptake, particularly in the PWID population.

Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes an asymptomatic chronic hepatitis in most affected individuals, which often remains undetected until cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications occur. Screening of high-risk subjects in Northern Norway has revealed a relatively low prevalence in the general population (0.24%). Despite this, late complications of HCV infection are increasing. Our object was to estimate the future prevalence and complications of chronic HCV infection in the period 2013-2050 in a low-risk area.

METHODS

We have entered available data into a prognostic Markov model to project future complications to HCV infection.

RESULTS

The model extrapolates the prevalence in the present cohort of HCV-infected individuals, and assumes a stable low incidence in the projection period. We predict an almost three-fold increase in the incidence of cirrhosis (68 per 100,000), of decompensated cirrhosis (21 per 100,000) and of hepatocellular carcinoma (4 per 100,000) by 2050, as well as a six-fold increase in the cumulated number of deaths from HCV-related liver disease (170 per 100,000 inhabitants). All estimates are made assuming an unchanged treatment coverage of approximately 15%. The estimated numbers can be reduced by approximately 50% for cirrhosis, and by approximately one third for the other endpoints if treatment coverage is raised to 50%.

CONCLUSION

These projections from a low-prevalence area indicate a substantial rise in HCV-related morbidity and mortality in the coming years. The global HCV epidemic is of great concern and increased treatment coverage is necessary to reduce the burden of the disease.

Assessing the impact and cost-effectiveness of needle and syringe provision and opioid substitution therapy on hepatitis C transmission among people who inject drugs in the UK: an analysis of pooled data sets and economic modelling

Background

There is limited evidence of the impact of needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) and opioid substitution therapy (OST) on hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID), nor have there been any economic evaluations.

Objective(s)

To measure (1) the impact of NSP and OST, (2) changes in the extent of provision of both interventions, and (3) costs and cost-effectiveness of NSPs on HCV infection transmission.

Design

We conducted (1) a systematic review; (2) an analysis of existing data sets, including collating costs of NSPs; and (3) a dynamic deterministic model to estimate the impact of differing OST/NSP intervention coverage levels for reducing HCV infection prevalence, incidence and disease burden, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to measure the cost-effectiveness of current NSP provision versus no provision.

Setting

Cost-effectiveness analysis and impact modelling in three UK sites. The pooled analysis drew on data from the UK and Australia. The review was international.

Participants

PWID.

Interventions

NSP coverage (proportion of injections covered by clean needles) and OST.

Outcome

New cases of HCV infection.

Results

The review suggested that OST reduced the risk of HCV infection acquisition by 50% [rate ratio (RR) 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40 to 0.63]. Weaker evidence was found in areas of high (≥ 100%) NSP coverage (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.54) internationally. There was moderate evidence for combined high coverage of NSPs and OST (RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.65). The pooled analysis showed that combined high coverage of NSPs and OST reduced the risk of HCV infection acquisition by 29–71% compared with those on minimal harm reduction (no OST, ≤ 100% NSP coverage). NSPs are likely to be cost-effective and are cost-saving in some settings. The impact modelling suggest that removing OST (current coverage 81%) and NSPs (coverage 54%) in one site would increase HCV infection incidence by 329% [95% credible interval (CrI) 110% to 953%] in 2031 and at least double (132% increase; 95% CrI 51% to 306%) the number of new infections over 15 years. Increasing NSP coverage to 80% has the largest impact in the site with the lowest current NSP coverage (35%), resulting in a 27% (95% CrI 7% to 43%) decrease in new infections and 41% (95% CrI 11% to 72%) decrease in incidence by 2031 compared with 2016. Addressing homelessness and reducing the harm associated with the injection of crack cocaine could avert approximately 60% of HCV infections over the next 15 years.

Limitations

Findings are limited by the misclassification of NSP coverage and the simplified intervention definition that fails to capture the integrated services that address other social and health needs as part of this.

Conclusions

There is moderate evidence of the effectiveness of OST and NSPs, especially in combination, on HCV infection acquisition risk. Policies to ensure that NSPs can be accessed alongside OST are needed. NSPs are cost-saving in some sites and cost-effective in others. NSPs and OST are likely to prevent considerable rates of HCV infection in the UK. Increasing NSP coverage will have most impact in settings with low coverage. Scaling up other interventions such as HCV infection treatment are needed to decrease epidemics to low levels in higher prevalence settings.

Future work

To understand the mechanisms through which NSPs and OST achieve their effect and the optimum contexts to support implementation.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme.

Chronic viral hepatitis and its association with liver cancer

Chronic infection with hepatitis viruses represents the major causative factor for end-stage liver diseases, including liver cirrhosis and primary liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma, HCC). In this review, we highlight the current understanding of the molecular mechanisms that drive the hepatocarcinogenesis associated with chronic hepatitis virus infections. While chronic inflammation (associated with a persistent, but impaired anti-viral immune response) plays a major role in HCC initiation and progression, hepatitis viruses can also directly drive liver cancer. The mechanisms by which hepatitis viruses induce HCC include: hepatitis B virus DNA integration into the host cell genome; metabolic reprogramming by virus infection; induction of the cellular stress response pathway by viral gene products; and interference with tumour suppressors. Finally, we summarise the limitations of hepatitis virus-associated HCC model systems and the development of new techniques to circumvent these shortcomings.

Real-world challenges for hepatitis C virus medications: a critical overview

From 2010, the landscape of hepatitis C therapeutics has been changed rapidly, and today we are standing at a cusp of a pharmacological revolution where highly effective and interferon (IFN)-free direct acting antivirals (DAAs) are already on the market. Such treatment paradigms attain 90-95% sustained virologic response (SVR; undetectable viral load at week 12 or 24 at the end of therapy) rates in treated individuals compared to 50-70% with treatment completion of dual-therapy-pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) and ribavirin (RBV). As the major goal now for the hepatologists, clinicians, physicians, and health care workers is likely to eradicate hepatitis C infection in parallel to treatment, the demand is for a one-size-fits-all pill that could be prescribed beyond the limitations of hepatitis C genotype, viral load, previous treatment history, advanced hepatic manifestations (fibrosis, cirrhosis) and antiviral drug resistance. Although the new treatment strategies have shown high cure rates in clinical trials, such treatment paradigms are posing dilemmas too in real-world clinical practice. Therapy cost, treatment access to low and middle-income countries, treatment-emergent adverse events, lack of effective viral screening and disease progression simulation models are potential challenges in this prospect. This review article deeply overviews the challenges encountered while surmounting the burden of hepatitis C around the world.

Impact of Hepatitis C Treatment as Prevention for People Who Inject Drugs is sensitive to contact network structure

Treatment as Prevention (TasP) using directly-acting antivirals has been advocated for Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) in people who inject drugs (PWID), but treatment is expensive and TasP’s effectiveness is uncertain. Previous modelling has assumed a homogeneously-mixed population or a static network lacking turnover in the population and injecting partnerships. We developed a transmission-dynamic model on a dynamic network of injecting partnerships using data from survey of injecting behaviour carried out in London, UK. We studied transmission on a novel exponential-clustered network, as well as on two simpler networks for comparison, an exponential unclustered and a random network, and found that TasP’s effectiveness differs markedly. With respect to an exponential-clustered network, the random network (and homogeneously-mixed population) overestimate TasP’s effectiveness, whereas the exponential-unclustered network underestimates it. For all network types TasP’s effectiveness depends on whether treated patients change risk behaviour, and on treatment coverage: higher coverage requires fewer total treatments for the same health gain. Whilst TasP can greatly reduce HCV prevalence, incidence of infection, and incidence of reinfection in PWID, assessment of TasP’s effectiveness needs to take account of the injecting-partnership network structure and post-treatment behaviour change, and further empirical study is required.

Hepatitis C-related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of new generation antivirals

Hepatitis C virus infection is a major cause of hepatocellular carcinoma worldwide. Interferon has been the major antiviral treatment, yielding viral clearance in approximately half of patients. New direct-acting antivirals substantially improved the cure rate to above 90%. However, access to therapies remains limited due to the high costs and under-diagnosis of infection in specific subpopulations, e.g., baby boomers, inmates, and injection drug users, and therefore, hepatocellular carcinoma incidence is predicted to increase in the next decades even in high-resource countries. Moreover, cancer risk persists even after 10 years of viral cure, and thus a clinical strategy for its monitoring is urgently needed. Several risk-predictive host factors, e.g., advanced liver fibrosis, older age, accompanying metabolic diseases such as diabetes, persisting hepatic inflammation, and elevated alpha-fetoprotein, as well as viral factors, e.g., core protein variants and genotype 3, have been reported. Indeed, a molecular signature in the liver has been associated with cancer risk even after viral cure. Direct-acting antivirals may affect cancer development and recurrence, which needs to be determined in further investigation.

Tailored algorithms for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: Is one-size-fits-all strategy outdated?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Current clinical practice guidelines recommend regular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance with biannual ultrasound with or without serum alpha-fetoprotein uniformly applied to all patients with cirrhosis. However, clinical implementation of this one-size-fits-all strategy has been challenging as evidenced by very low application rate below 20% due to various reasons, including suboptimal performance of the surveillance modalities.

RECENT FINDINGS

Newly emerging imaging techniques such as abbreviated MRI (AMRI) and molecular HCC risk biomarkers have increasingly become available for clinical evaluation and implementation. These technologies may have a potential to reshape HCC surveillance by enabling tailored strategies. This would involve performing optimized surveillance tests according to individual HCC risk, and allocating limited medical resources for HCC surveillance based on cost-effectiveness.

SUMMARY

Tailored HCC surveillance could lead to achievement of precision HCC care and substantial improvement of the current dismal patient prognosis.

Sofosbuvir based therapy in hepatitis C patients with and without cirrhosis: Is there difference?

Objective:

To compare sustained viral response to sofosbuvir/ribavirin ±interferon therapy in patients of hepatitis C with and without liver cirrhosis.

Methods:

This observational study of chronic hepatitis C patients was carried out at Doctors Hospital and Medical Center (DH&MC). After diagnostic workup, Sofosbuvir/ribavirin for 24 weeks or sofosbuvir/ribavirin/pegylated interferon for 12 weeks were prescribed. Primary outcome was negative HCV RNA by PCR 12 weeks after treatment completion (SVR₁₂). Chi square χ² and student’s t test were used to analyze data.

Results:

Of 216 patients included, liver cirrhosis was present in 112 (51.9%) patients and 69(31.9%) were treatment experienced. Liver disease was decompensated in 37 (17.1%) patients. Of 206 patient who completed study protocol, 173(83.1%) achieved SVR₁₂, 89.2% (25/28) with triple therapy and 82.2% (148/180) with sofosbuvir/ribavirin therapy. Treatment response was similar between treatment naïve 86.2% (119/138) and treatment experienced 79.4% (54/68) patents. (p value 0.19) SVR₁₂ was inferior in cirrhosis patients 75.4% (80/106) as compared to those with no cirrhosis 93% (93/100) (p value < 0.000). It was even lesser in those with decompensated liver disease 68.8% (24/35) (p value < 0.000).

Conclusion:

Treatment outcome with sofosbuvir/ribavirin combination therapy in cirrhosis patients is suboptimal especially in those with decompensation as compared to patients without liver cirrhosis.

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection and pathogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is one of the major causes of advanced liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. While the knowledge about the molecular virology of HCV infection has markedly advanced, the molecular mechanisms of disease progression leading to fibrosis, cirrhosis and HCC are still unclear. Accumulating experimental and clinical studies indicate that HCV may drive hepatocarcinogenesis directly via its proteins or transcripts, and/or indirectly through induction of chronic liver inflammation. Despite the possibility to eradicate HCV infection through direct-acting antiviral treatment, the risk of HCC persists although specific biomarkers to estimate this risk are still missing. Thus, a better understanding of HCV-induced HCC and more physiological liver disease models are required to prevent cancer development.