Why transition risk to psychosis is not declining at the OASIS ultra high risk service: The hidden role of stable pretest risk enrichment

Meta-analysis of gender differences in transition prevalence among individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis

Gender differences have been found in several areas of individuals at clinical-high risk for psychosis(CHR). Therefore the risk of transition to psychosis may differ between male and female CHR, but previous work has not systematically reviewed and analyzed gender differences in conversion rates.We performed a meta-analysis according to PRISMA guidelines including all studies that assessed CHR with reliable instruments and provided data on the transition from male CHR and female CHR to psychosis to understand the conversion rate conversion in male and female CHR. Seventy-nine article were identified.A total of 1250 out of 5770 in the male CHR individuals, and 832 out of 4468 in the female CHR individuals translated to psychotic disorders. Transition prevalence were 19.4%(95%CI:14.2-25.8%)at 1 year, 20.6% at 2 year (95%CI:17.1-24.8%),24.3% at 3 years (95%CI:21.5-27.4%),26.3% at 4 years or older (95%CI:20.9-32.5%) and 22.3% at all (95%CI:20.0-24.8%) in male CHR and 17.7% (95%CI:12.6-24.4%) at 1 years, 17.5% (95%CI:14.2-21.4%) at 2 year, 19.9%(95%CI:17.3-0.228%) at 3 years,and 0.267 (95%CI:22.1-31.9%) at 4 years or older follow-up,20.4% at all (95%CI:18.1-22.9%) in female CHR. There were differences between the two groups in the overall conversion, the 2-year, and the 3-year follow up transition prevalence, which were higher in men CHR than in female CHR. Future research characterizing male versus female CHR is needed with the expectation that interventions will be developed that are tailored to the respective gender, further reducing the rate of conversion to CHR.

Physical Health in Clinical High Risk for Psychosis Individuals: A Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

The clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) phase represents an opportunity for prevention and early intervention in young adults, which also could focus on improving physical health trajectories.

METHODS

We conducted a RECORD-compliant clinical register-based cohort study. The primary outcome was to describe the physical health of assessed CHR-P individuals, obtained via Electronic Health Records at the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Foundation Trust, UK (January 2013-October 2020).

RESULTS

The final database included 194 CHR-P subjects (46% female). Mean age was 23.70 ± 5.12 years. Percentage of tobacco smokers was 41% (significantly higher than in the age-matched general population [24%]). We found that 49% of subjects who consumed alcohol had an AUDIT-C (Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test) score above 5 (hazardous drinking), with an average score of 4.94 (significantly higher than in the general population [2.75]). Investigating diet revealed low fiber intake in most subjects and high saturated fat intake in 10% of the individuals. We found that 47% of CHR-P subjects met the UK recommended physical activity guidelines (significantly lower than in the general population [66%]). Physical parameters (e.g., weight, heart rate, blood pressure) were not significantly different from the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

This evidence corroborates the need for monitoring physical health parameters in CHR-P subjects, to implement tailored interventions that target daily habits.

Baseline data of a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (STEP study)

AIM

Research has shown that preventative intervention in individuals at ultra-high risk of psychosis (UHR) improves symptomatic and functional outcomes. The staged treatment in early psychosis (STEP) trial aims to determine the most effective type, timing and sequence of interventions in the UHR population by sequentially studying the effectiveness of (1) support and problem solving, (2) cognitive-behavioural case management and (3) antidepressant medication with an embedded fast-fail option of (4) omega-3 fatty acids or low-dose antipsychotic medication. This paper presents the recruitment flow and baseline clinical characteristics of the sample.

METHODS

STEP is a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial. We present the baseline demographics, clinical characteristics and acceptability and feasibility of this treatment approach as indicated by the flow of participants from first contact up until enrolment into the trial. Recruitment took place between April 2016 and January 2019.

RESULTS

Of 1343, help-seeking young people who were considered for participation, 402 participants were not eligible and 599 declined/disengaged, resulting in a total of 342 participants enrolled in the study. The most common reason for exclusion was an active prescription of antidepressant medication. Eighty-five percent of the enrolled sample had a non-psychotic DSM-5 diagnosis and symptomatic/functional measures showed a moderate level of clinical severity and functional impairment.

DISCUSSION

The present study demonstrates the acceptability and participant's general positive appraisal of sequential treatment. It also shows, in line with other trials in UHR individuals, a significant level of psychiatric morbidity and impairment, demonstrating the clear need for care in this group and that treatment is appropriate.

Clinical outcomes in individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis who do not transition to psychosis: a meta-analysis

AIMS

The clinical outcomes of individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis (CHR-P) who do not transition to psychosis are heterogeneous and inconsistently reported. We aimed to comprehensively evaluate longitudinally a wide range of outcomes in CHR-P individuals not developing psychosis.

METHODS

"Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses" and "Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology"-compliant meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD42021229212) searching original CHR-P longitudinal studies in PubMed and Web of Science databases up to 01/11/2021. As primary analysis, we evaluated the following outcomes within CHR-P non-transitioning individuals: (a) change in the severity of attenuated psychotic symptoms (Hedge's g); (b) change in the severity of negative psychotic symptoms (Hedge's g); (c) change in the severity of depressive symptoms (Hedge's g); (d) change in the level of functioning (Hedge's g); (e) frequency of remission (at follow-up). As a secondary analysis, we compared these outcomes in those CHR-P individuals who did not transition vs. those who did transition to psychosis at follow-up. We conducted random-effects model meta-analyses, sensitivity analyses, heterogeneity analyses, meta-regressions and publication bias assessment. The risk of bias was assessed using a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS).

RESULTS

Twenty-eight studies were included (2756 CHR-P individuals, mean age = 20.4, 45.5% females). The mean duration of follow-up of the included studies was of 30.7 months. Primary analysis: attenuated psychotic symptoms [Hedges' g = 1.410, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.002-1.818]; negative psychotic symptoms (Hedges' g = 0.683, 95% CI 0.371-0.995); depressive symptoms (Hedges' g = 0.844, 95% CI 0.371-1.317); and functioning (Hedges' g = 0.776, 95% CI 0.463-1.089) improved in CHR-P non-transitioning individuals; 48.7% remitted at follow-up (95% CI 39.3-58.2%). Secondary analysis: attenuated psychotic symptoms (Hedges' g = 0.706, 95% CI 0.091-1.322) and functioning (Hedges' g = 0.623, 95% CI 0.375-0.871) improved in CHR-P individuals not-transitioning compared to those transitioning to psychosis, but there were no differences in negative or depressive symptoms or frequency of remission (p > 0.05). Older age was associated with higher improvements of attenuated psychotic symptoms (β = 0.225, p = 0.012); publication years were associated with a higher improvement of functioning (β = -0.124, p = 0.0026); a lower proportion of Brief Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms was associated with higher frequencies of remission (β = -0.054, p = 0.0085). There was no metaregression impact for study continent, the psychometric instrument used, the quality of the study or proportion of females. The NOS scores were 4.4 ± 0.9, ranging from 3 to 6, revealing the moderate quality of the included studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical outcomes improve in CHR-P individuals not transitioning to psychosis but only less than half remit over time. Sustained clinical attention should be provided in the longer term to monitor these outcomes.

Diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of brief psychotic episodes: a review and research agenda

Brief psychotic episodes represent an intriguing paradox in clinical psychiatry because they elude the standard knowledge that applies to the persisting psychotic disorders such as schizophrenia. This Review describes key diagnostic considerations such as conceptual foundations, current psychiatric classification versus research-based operationalisations, epidemiology, and sociocultural variations; prognostic aspects including the risk of psychosis recurrence, types of psychotic recurrences, other clinical outcomes, prognostic factors; and therapeutic issues such as treatment guidelines and unmet need of care. The advances and challenges associated with the scientific evidence are used to set a research agenda in this area. We conclude that brief psychotic episodes can be reconceptualised within a clinical staging model to promote innovative translational research and improve our understanding and treatment of psychotic disorders.

Prevalence of Individuals at Clinical High-Risk of Psychosis in the General Population and Clinical Samples: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

(1) The consistency and magnitude of the prevalence of Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) individuals are undetermined, limiting efficient detection of cases. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of CHR-P individuals systematically assessed in the general population or clinical samples. (2) PRISMA/MOOSE-compliant (PROSPERO: CRD42020168672) meta-analysis of multiple databases until 21/01/21: a random-effects model meta-analysis, heterogeneity analysis, publication bias and quality assessment, sensitivity analysis—according to the gold-standard CHR-P and pre-screening instruments—leave-one-study-out analyses, and meta-regressions were conducted. (3) 35 studies were included, with 37,135 individuals tested and 1554 CHR-P individuals identified (median age = 19.3 years, Interquartile range (IQR) = 15.8–22.1; 52.2% females, IQR = 38.7–64.4). In the general population (k = 13, n = 26,835 individuals evaluated), the prevalence of the CHR-P state was 1.7% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.0–2.9%). In clinical samples (k = 22, n = 10,300 individuals evaluated), the prevalence of the CHR-P state was 19.2% (95% CI = 12.9–27.7%). Using a pre-screening instrument was associated with false negatives (5.6%, 95% CI = 2.2–13.3%) and a lower CHR-P prevalence (11.5%, 95% CI = 6.2–20.5%) compared to using CHR-P instruments only (28.5%, 95% CI = 23.0–34.7%, p = 0.003). (4) The prevalence of the CHR-P state is low in the general population and ten times higher in clinical samples. The prevalence of CHR-P may increase with a higher proportion of females in the general population and with a younger population in clinical samples. The CHR-P state may be unrecognized in routine clinical practice. These findings can refine detection and preventive strategies.

Probability of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Estimating the current likelihood of transitioning from a clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) to psychosis holds paramount importance for preventive care and applied research.

OBJECTIVE

To quantitatively examine the consistency and magnitude of transition risk to psychosis in individuals at CHR-P.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and Web of Science databases until November 1, 2020. Manual search of references from previous articles.

STUDY SELECTION

Longitudinal studies reporting transition risks in individuals at CHR-P.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Meta-analysis compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) and Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) reporting guidelines; independent data extraction, manually and through digitalization of Kaplan-Meier curves.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES

Primary effect size was cumulative risk of transition to psychosis at 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, and more than 4 years' follow-up, estimated using the numbers of individuals at CHR-P transitioning to psychosis at each time point. These analyses were complemented by meta-analytical Kaplan-Meier curves and speed of transition to psychosis (hazard rate). Random-effects meta-analysis, between-study heterogeneity analysis, study quality assessment, and meta-regressions were conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 130 studies and 9222 individuals at CHR-P were included. The mean (SD) age was 20.3 (4.4) years, and 5100 individuals (55.3%) were male. The cumulative transition risk was 0.09 (95% CI, 0.07-0.10; k = 37; n = 6485) at 0.5 years, 0.15 (95% CI, 0.13-0.16; k = 53; n = 7907) at 1 year, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 30; n = 5488) at 1.5 years, 0.19 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 44; n = 7351) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.21-0.29; k = 19; n = 3114) at 2.5 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.22-0.29; k = 29; n = 4029) at 3 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.23-0.30; k = 16; n = 2926) at 4 years, and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.20-0.37; k = 14; n = 2301) at more than 4 years. The cumulative Kaplan-Meier transition risk was 0.08 (95% CI, 0.08-0.09; n = 4860) at 0.5 years, 0.14 (95% CI, 0.13-0.15; n = 3408) at 1 year, 0.17 (95% CI, 0.16-0.19; n = 2892) at 1.5 years, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.19-0.21; n = 2357) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.23-0.26; n = 1444) at 2.5 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.25-0.28; n = 1029) at 3 years, 0.28 (95% CI, 0.26-0.29; n = 808) at 3.5 years, 0.29 (95% CI, 0.27-0.30; n = 737) at 4 years, and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.32-0.38; n = 114) at 10 years. The hazard rate only plateaued at 4 years' follow-up. Meta-regressions showed that a lower proportion of female individuals (β = -0.02; 95% CI, -0.04 to -0.01) and a higher proportion of brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (β = 0.02; 95% CI, 0.01-0.03) were associated with an increase in transition risk. Heterogeneity across the studies was high (I2 range, 77.91% to 95.73%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this meta-analysis, 25% of individuals at CHR-P developed psychosis within 3 years. Transition risk continued increasing in the long term. Extended clinical monitoring and preventive care may be beneficial in this patient population.

Transition to psychosis in randomized clinical trials of individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis compared to observational cohorts: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis (CHR-P) recruited in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and observational cohorts may display a different enrichment and hence risk of transition to psychosis. No meta-analysis has ever addressed this issue.

METHODS

"Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses" (PRISMA) and "Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology" (MOOSE)-compliant meta-analysis. PubMed and Web of Science were searched until November 2020 (PROSPERO:CRD42021229223). We included nonoverlapping longitudinal studies (RCTs-control condition and observational cohorts) reporting the transition to psychosis in CHR-P individuals. The primary effect size measure was the cumulative risk of transition at 0.5, 1, and 2 years follow-up in RCTs compared to observational cohorts. Random effects meta-analyses, heterogeneity assessment, quality assessment, and meta-regressions were conducted.

RESULTS

Ninety-four independent studies (24 RCTs, 70 observational cohorts) and 9,243 individuals (mean age = 20.1 ± 3.0 years; 43.7% females) were included. The meta-analytical risk of transitioning to psychosis from a CHR-P stage was 0.091 (95% confidence intervals [CI] = 0.068-0.121) at 0.5 years, 0.140 (95% CI = 0.101-0.191) at 1 year and 0.165 (95% CI = 0.097-0.267) at 2 years follow-up in RCTs, and 0.081 (95% CI = 0.067-0.099) at 0.5 years, 0.138 (95% CI = 0.114-0.167) at 1 year, and 0.174 (95% CI = 0.156-0.193) at 2 years follow-up in observational cohorts. There were no between-group differences in transition risks (p > 0.05). The proportion of CHR-P individuals with substance use disorders (excluding alcohol and cannabis) was higher in observational cohorts (16.8, 95% CI = 13.3-21.0%) than in RCTs (3.4, 95% CI = 0.8-12.7%; p = 0.018).

CONCLUSIONS

There is no meta-analytic evidence supporting sampling biases in RCTs of CHR-P individuals. Further RCTs are needed to detect effective interventions to prevent psychosis in this at-risk group.

Risk factors for eating disorders: an umbrella review of published meta-analyses

Objective:

To grade the evidence about risk factors for eating disorders (anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, and binge eating disorder) with an umbrella review approach.

Methods:

This was a systematic review of observational studies on risk factors for eating disorders published in PubMed/PsycInfo/Embase until December 11th, 2019. We recalculated random-effect meta-analyses, heterogeneity, small-study effect, excess significance bias and 95% prediction intervals, grading significant evidence (p < 0.05) from convincing to weak according to established criteria. Quality was assessed with the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews 2 (AMSTAR-2) tool.

Results:

Of 2,197 meta-analyses, nine were included, providing evidence on 50 risk factors, 29,272 subjects with eating disorders, and 1,679,385 controls. Although no association was supported by convincing evidence, highly suggestive evidence supported the association between childhood sexual abuse and bulimia nervosa (k = 29, 1,103 cases with eating disorders, 8,496 controls, OR, 2.73, 95%CI 1.96-3.79, p = 2.1 x 10-9, AMSTAR-2 moderate quality) and between appearance-related teasing victimization and any eating disorder (k = 10, 1,341 cases with eating disorders, 3,295 controls, OR 2.91, 95%CI 2.05-4.12, p = 1.8x10-9, AMSTAR-2 moderate quality). Suggestive, weak, or no evidence supported 11, 29, and 8 associations, respectively.

Conclusions:

The most credible evidence indicates that early traumatic and stressful events are risk factors for eating disorders. Larger collaborative prospective cohort studies are needed to identify risk factors for eating disorders, particularly anorexia nervosa.

Preventive psychiatry: a blueprint for improving the mental health of young people

Preventive approaches have latterly gained traction for improving mental health in young people. In this paper, we first appraise the conceptual foundations of preventive psychiatry, encompassing the public health, Gordon's, US Institute of Medicine, World Health Organization, and good mental health frameworks, and neurodevelopmentally-sensitive clinical staging models. We then review the evidence supporting primary prevention of psychotic, bipolar and common mental disorders and promotion of good mental health as potential transformative strategies to reduce the incidence of these disorders in young people. Within indicated approaches, the clinical high-risk for psychosis paradigm has received the most empirical validation, while clinical high-risk states for bipolar and common mental disorders are increasingly becoming a focus of attention. Selective approaches have mostly targeted familial vulnerability and non-genetic risk exposures. Selective screening and psychological/psychoeducational interventions in vulnerable subgroups may improve anxiety/depressive symptoms, but their efficacy in reducing the incidence of psychotic/bipolar/common mental disorders is unproven. Selective physical exercise may reduce the incidence of anxiety disorders. Universal psychological/psychoeducational interventions may improve anxiety symptoms but not prevent depressive/anxiety disorders, while universal physical exercise may reduce the incidence of anxiety disorders. Universal public health approaches targeting school climate or social determinants (demographic, economic, neighbourhood, environmental, social/cultural) of mental disorders hold the greatest potential for reducing the risk profile of the population as a whole. The approach to promotion of good mental health is currently fragmented. We leverage the knowledge gained from the review to develop a blueprint for future research and practice of preventive psychiatry in young people: integrating universal and targeted frameworks; advancing multivariable, transdiagnostic, multi-endpoint epidemiological knowledge; synergically preventing common and infrequent mental disorders; preventing physical and mental health burden together; implementing stratified/personalized prognosis; establishing evidence-based preventive interventions; developing an ethical framework, improving prevention through education/training; consolidating the cost-effectiveness of preventive psychiatry; and decreasing inequalities. These goals can only be achieved through an urgent individual, societal, and global level response, which promotes a vigorous collaboration across scientific, health care, societal and governmental sectors for implementing preventive psychiatry, as much is at stake for young people with or at risk for emerging mental disorders.

Establishing a clinical service to prevent psychosis: What, how and when? Systematic review

The first rate-limiting step to successfully translate prevention of psychosis in to clinical practice is to establish specialised Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) services. This study systematises the knowledge regarding CHR-P services and provides guidelines for translational implementation. We conducted a PRISMA/MOOSE-compliant (PROSPERO-CRD42020163640) systematic review of Web of Science to identify studies until 4/05/2020 reporting on CHR-P service configuration, outreach strategy and referrals, service user characteristics, interventions, and outcomes. Fifty-six studies (1998-2020) were included, encompassing 51 distinct CHR-P services across 15 countries and a catchment area of 17,252,666 people. Most services (80.4%) consisted of integrated multidisciplinary teams taking care of CHR-P and other patients. Outreach encompassed active (up to 97.6%) or passive (up to 63.4%) approaches: referrals came mostly (90%) from healthcare agencies. CHR-P individuals were more frequently males (57.2%). Most (70.6%) services accepted individuals aged 12-35 years, typically assessed with the CAARMS/SIPS (83.7%). Baseline comorbid mental conditions were reported in two-third (69.5%) of cases, and unemployment in one third (36.6%). Most services provided up to 2-years (72.4%), of clinical monitoring (100%), psychoeducation (81.1%), psychosocial support (73%), family interventions (73%), individual (67.6%) and group (18.9%) psychotherapy, physical health interventions (37.8%), antipsychotics (87.1%), antidepressants (74.2%), anxiolytics (51.6%), and mood stabilisers (38.7%). Outcomes were more frequently ascertained clinically (93.0%) and included: persistence of symptoms/comorbidities (67.4%), transition to psychosis (53.5%), and functional status (48.8%). We provide ten practical recommendations for implementation of CHR-P services. Health service knowledge summarised by the current study will facilitate translational efforts for implementation of CHR-P services worldwide.

Worldwide implementation of clinical services for the prevention of psychosis: The IEPA early intervention in mental health survey

BACKGROUND

Clinical research into the Clinical High Risk state for Psychosis (CHR-P) has allowed primary indicated prevention in psychiatry to improve outcomes of psychotic disorders. The strategic component of this approach is the implementation of clinical services to detect and take care of CHR-P individuals, which are recommended by several guidelines. The actual level of implementation of CHR-P services worldwide is not completely clear.

AIM

To assess the global geographical distribution, core characteristics relating to the level of implementation of CHR-P services; to overview of the main barriers that limit their implementation at scale.

METHODS

CHR-P services worldwide were invited to complete an online survey. The survey addressed the geographical distribution, general implementation characteristics and implementation barriers.

RESULTS

The survey was completed by 47 CHR-P services offering care to 22 248 CHR-P individuals: Western Europe (51.1%), North America (17.0%), East Asia (17.0%), Australia (6.4%), South America (6.4%) and Africa (2.1%). Their implementation characteristics included heterogeneous clinical settings, assessment instruments and length of care offered. Most CHR-P patients were recruited through mental or physical health services. Preventive interventions included clinical monitoring and crisis management (80.1%), supportive therapy (70.2%) or structured psychotherapy (61.7%), in combination with pharmacological treatment (in 74.5%). Core implementation barriers were staffing and financial constraints, and the recruitment of CHR-P individuals. The dynamic map of CHR-P services has been implemented on the IEPA website: https://iepa.org.au/list-a-service/.

CONCLUSIONS

Worldwide primary indicated prevention of psychosis in CHR-P individuals is possible, but the implementation of CHR-P services is heterogeneous and constrained by pragmatic challenges.

Real-world long-term outcomes in individuals at clinical risk for psychosis: The case for extending duration of care

BACKGROUND

Most services for individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) provide short-term clinical care. This study determines the real-world and long-term clinical outcomes beyond transition to psychosis in a large cohort of CHR-P individuals.

METHOD

Retrospective RECORD-compliant real-world Electronic Health Records (EHR) cohort study in secondary mental health care (the South London and the Maudsley -SLaM- NHS Foundation Trust). All CHR-P patients accessing the CHR-P service at SLaM in the period 2001-2018 were included. Main outcomes were long-term cumulative risk of first: (i) developing an ICD-10 psychotic disorder (primary outcome), receiving a treatment with (iia) antipsychotic medication, (iib) benzodiazepines, (iic) other psychotropic medications, (iid) psychotherapy, receiving an (iiia) informal or (iiib) compulsory admission into a mental health hospital, and the time to these events; (iiic) number of days spent in hospital and (iv) cumulative risk of death for any reason and age/gender Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR). Data were extracted from the EHR and analysed with Kaplan Meier failure functions, Cox and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions.

FINDINGS

600 CHR-P patients (80.43% Attenuated Psychotic Symptoms, APS; 18.06%, Brief and Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms, BLIPS, 1.51% Genetic Risk and Deterioration Syndrome) were included (mean age 22.63 years, range 13-36; 55.33% males; 46.44% white, mean duration of untreated attenuated psychotic symptoms 676.32 days, 1105.40 SD). The cumulative risk to first psychosis was 0.365 (95%CI 0.302-0.437) at 11 years; first antipsychotic 0.777 (95%CI 0.702-0.844) at 9 years; first benzodiazepine 0.259 (95%CI 0.183-0.359) at 12 years; first other types of medications 0.630 (95%CI 0.538-0.772) at 9 years; first psychotherapy 0.814 (95%CI 0.764-0.859) at 9 years; first informal admission 0.378 (95%CI 0.249-0.546) at 12 years; first compulsory admission 0.251 (95%CI 0.175-0.352) at 12 years; those admitted spent on average 94.84 (SD=169.94) days in hospital; the cumulative risk of death for any reason was 0.036 (95%CI 0.012-0.103) at 9 years, with an SMR of 3.9 (95%CI 1.20-6.6). Compared to APS, BLIPS had a higher risk of developing psychosis, being admitted compulsorily into hospital, receiving antipsychotics and benzodiazepines and lower probability of receiving psychotherapy. Other prognostic factors of long-term outcomes included age, symptoms severity, duration of untreated attenuated psychotic symptoms, ethnicity and employment status.

INTERPRETATION

Duration of care provided by CHR-P services should be expanded to address long-term real-world outcomes.

FUNDING

This study was supported by the King's College London Confidence in Concept award from the Medical Research Council (MRC) (MC_PC_16048) to PF-P. GSP is supported by the Alicia Koplowitz Foundation. HB is supported by a National Institute for Health Research Maudsley Biomedical Research Centre studentship.

Outreach and support in South-London (OASIS) 2001-2020: Twenty years of early detection, prognosis and preventive care for young people at risk of psychosis

This study aims to describe twenty years of early detection, prognosis and preventive care in the Outreach and Support In South-London (OASIS) mental health service for individuals at Clinical High risk of psychosis (CHR-P). The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the 2001- 2020 activity of the OASIS team encompassing core domains: (i) service characteristics, (ii) detection, (iii) prognosis, (iv) treatment and (v) clinical research. The analyses employed descriptive statistics, population-level data, the epidemiological incidence of psychosis, Kaplan Meier failure functions and Greenwood 95% CIs and Electronic Health Records. OASIS is part of the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS trust, the largest European mental health provider, serving a total urban population of 1,358,646 individuals (population aged 16-35: 454,525). Incidence of psychosis in OASIS's catchment area ranges from 58.3 to 71.9 cases per 100,000 person-years, and it is higher than the national average of 41.5 cases per 100,000 person-year. OASIS is a standalone, NHS-funded, multidisciplinary (team leader, consultant and junior psychiatrists, clinical psychologists, mental health professionals), transitional (for those aged 14-35 years) community mental health service with a yearly caseload of 140 CHR-P individuals. OASIS regularly delivers a comprehensive service promotion outreach to several local community organisations. Referrals to OASIS (2366) are made by numerous agencies; about one-third of the referrals eventually met CHR-P criteria. Overall, 600 CHR-P individuals (55.33% males, mean age 22.63 years, white ethnicity 46.44%) have been under the care of the OASIS service: 80.43% met attenuated psychotic symptoms, 18.06% brief and limited intermittent psychotic symptoms and 1.51% genetic risk and deterioration CHR-P criteria. All CHR-P individuals were offered cognitive behavioural therapy and psychosocial support; medications were used depending on individual needs. The cumulative risk of psychosis at ten years was 0.365 (95%CI 0.302-0.437). At six years follow-up, across two-third of individuals non-transitioning to psychosis, 79.24% still displayed some mental health problem, and only 20.75% achieved a complete clinical remission. Research conducted at OASIS encompassed clinical, prognostic, neurobiological and interventional studies and leveraged local, national and international infrastructures; over the past ten years, OASIS-related research attracted about £ 50 million of grant income, with 5,922 citations in the international databases. Future developments may include broadening OASIS to prevent other serious mental disorders beyond psychosis and fostering translational risk prediction and interventional research. With a twenty-years activity, OASIS' cutting-edge quality of preventive care, combined with translational research innovations, consolidated the service as a leading reference model for evidence-based prevention of psychosis worldwide.

Real-World Clinical Outcomes Two Years After Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: Electronic Health Record Cohort Study

The objective of this study is to describe the 2-year real-world clinical outcomes after transition to psychosis in patients at clinical high-risk. The study used the clinical electronic health record cohort study including all patients receiving a first index primary diagnosis of nonorganic International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 psychotic disorder within the early psychosis pathway in the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) National Health Service (NHS) Trust from 2001 to 2017. Outcomes encompassed: cumulative probability (at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) of receiving a first (1) treatment with antipsychotic, (2) informal admission, (3) compulsory admission, and (4) treatment with clozapine and (5) numbers of days spent in hospital (at 12 and 24 months) in patients transitioning to psychosis from clinical high-risk services (Outreach and Support in south London; OASIS) compared to other first-episode groups. Analyses included logistic and 0-inflated negative binomial regressions. In the study, 1561 patients were included; those who had initially been managed by OASIS and had subsequently transitioned to a first episode of psychosis (n = 130) were more likely to receive antipsychotic medication (at 3, 6, and 24 months; all P < .023), to be admitted informally (at all timepoints, all P < .004) and on a compulsory basis (at all timepoints, all P < .013), and to have spent more time in hospital (all timepoints, all P < .007) than first-episode patients who were already psychotic when seen by the OASIS service (n = 310), or presented to early intervention services (n = 1121). The likelihood of receiving clozapine was similar across all groups (at 12/24 months, all P < .101). Transition to psychosis from a clinical high-risk state is associated with severe real-world clinical outcomes. Prevention of transition to psychosis should remain a core target of future research. The study protocol was registered on www.researchregistry.com; researchregistry5039).

Baseline measures of cerebral glutamate and GABA levels in individuals at ultrahigh risk for psychosis: Implications for clinical outcome after 12 months

Background.

Cerebral glutamate and gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) levels might predict clinical outcome in individuals at ultrahigh risk (UHR) for psychosis but have previously primarily been investigated in smaller cohorts. We aimed to study whether baseline levels of glutamate and GABA in anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and glutamate in thalamus could predict remission status and whether baseline metabolites differed in the remission versus the nonremission group. We also investigated the relationship between baseline metabolite levels and severity of clinical symptoms, functional outcome, and cognitive deficits at follow-up.

Methods.

About 124 UHR individuals were recruited at baseline. In this, 74 UHR individuals were clinically and cognitively assessed after 12 months, while remission status was available for 81 (25 remission/56 nonremission). Glutamate and GABA levels were assessed at baseline using 3 T proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Psychopathology, symptom severity, and remission were assessed with the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States and Clinical Global Impression and functional outcome with the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale. Cognitive function was estimated with the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery.

Results.

There were no differences between baseline glutamate and GABA levels in subjects in the nonremission group compared with the remission group, and baseline metabolites could not predict remission status. However, higher baseline levels of GABA in ACC were associated with clinical global improvement (r = −0.34, N = 51, p = 0.01) in an explorative analysis.

Conclusions.

The variety in findings across studies suggests a probable multifactorial influence on clinical outcome in UHR individuals. Future studies should combine multimodal approaches to attempt prediction of long-term outcome.

Prevention of Psychosis: Advances in Detection, Prognosis, and Intervention

IMPORTANCE

Detection, prognosis, and indicated interventions in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) are key components of preventive psychiatry.

OBJECTIVE

To provide a comprehensive, evidence-based systematic appraisal of the advancements and limitations of detection, prognosis, and interventions for CHR-P individuals and to formulate updated recommendations.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Reviews, and Ovid/PsychINFO were searched for articles published from January 1, 2013, to June 30, 2019, to identify meta-analyses conducted in CHR-P individuals. MEDLINE was used to search the reference lists of retrieved articles. Data obtained from each article included first author, year of publication, topic investigated, type of publication, study design and number, sample size of CHR-P population and comparison group, type of comparison group, age and sex of CHR-P individuals, type of prognostic assessment, interventions, quality assessment (using AMSTAR [Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews]), and key findings with their effect sizes.

FINDINGS

In total, 42 meta-analyses published in the past 6 years and encompassing 81 outcomes were included. For the detection component, CHR-P individuals were young (mean [SD] age, 20.6 [3.2] years), were more frequently male (58%), and predominantly presented with attenuated psychotic symptoms lasting for more than 1 year before their presentation at specialized services. CHR-P individuals accumulated several sociodemographic risk factors compared with control participants. Substance use (33% tobacco use and 27% cannabis use), comorbid mental disorders (41% with depressive disorders and 15% with anxiety disorders), suicidal ideation (66%), and self-harm (49%) were also frequently seen in CHR-P individuals. CHR-P individuals showed impairments in work (Cohen d = 0.57) or educational functioning (Cohen d = 0.21), social functioning (Cohen d = 1.25), and quality of life (Cohen d = 1.75). Several neurobiological and neurocognitive alterations were confirmed in this study. For the prognosis component, the prognostic accuracy of CHR-P instruments was good, provided they were used in clinical samples. Overall, risk of psychosis was 22% at 3 years, and the risk was the highest in the brief and limited intermittent psychotic symptoms subgroup (38%). Baseline severity of attenuated psychotic (Cohen d = 0.35) and negative symptoms (Cohen d = 0.39) as well as low functioning (Cohen d = 0.29) were associated with an increased risk of psychosis. Controlling risk enrichment and implementing sequential risk assessments can optimize prognostic accuracy. For the intervention component, no robust evidence yet exists to favor any indicated intervention over another (including needs-based interventions and control conditions) for preventing psychosis or ameliorating any other outcome in CHR-P individuals. However, because the uncertainty of this evidence is high, needs-based and psychological interventions should still be offered.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This review confirmed recent substantial advancements in the detection and prognosis of CHR-P individuals while suggesting that effective indicated interventions need to be identified. This evidence suggests a need for specialized services to detect CHR-P individuals in primary and secondary care settings, to formulate a prognosis with validated psychometric instruments, and to offer needs-based and psychological interventions.

Clinical presentation and need for treatment of a cohort of subjects accessing to a mental illness prevention service

Outreaching activities decrease prognostic accuracy of at-risk mental state defining tools, over-attracting subjects who are not at increased risk of mental illness. The setting was a mental illness primary indicated prevention outpatients service embedded within the Psychiatry Unit of Padua University Hospital, Italy. Help-seeking patients accessing the service between January 2018 and December 2018 were evaluated with validated tools assessing functioning, at-risk mental state, schizotypal personality features, depressive and anxious symptoms, together with medical and family history collection. The primary outcome was the prevalence of drop in functioning at presentation according to the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale (SOFAS). Secondary outcomes were diagnoses according to DSM-5 criteria and meeting criteria for at-risk mental state. Fifty-nine patients accessed the service, mean age was 18.8 (2.12) years old, 54.2% were females. Virtually all subjects (97.7%) had a drop in functioning. Baseline primary diagnoses were depressive episode in 33%, anxiety disorder in 21%, personality disorder in 17%, adjustment disorder 9%, conduct disorder 7%, schizophrenia spectrum disorder 5%, bipolar disorder 5%, eating disorder in 1.7%, dissociative disorder 1.7%. Overall, 59.1% met at-risk mental state criteria. Lower functioning was associated with anxious symptoms (p=0.031), a family history of mental illness (p=0.045) and of suicide (p=0.042), and schizotypal personality traits (p=0.036). Subjects accessing a prevention service embedded within the mental health department already present a trans-diagnostic drop in functioning, mainly due to a non-psychotic mental disorder, with at-risk mental state in one patient out of two, and schizophrenia or bipolar disorder already present in only 10% of subjects. Prevention service within mental health facility setting appears to properly detect subjects in need of treatment with a drop in functioning, at risk of developing severe mental illness, without any outreaching activity in the general population.

Clinical Validity of DSM-5 Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome: Advances in Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Treatment

IMPORTANCE

Since the release of the DSM-5 diagnosis of attenuated psychosis syndrome (DSM-5-APS) in 2013, several research studies have investigated its clinical validity. Although critical and narrative reviews have reviewed these progresses, no systematic review has comprehensively summarized the available evidence regarding the clinical validity of DSM-5-APS.

OBJECTIVE

To provide current evidence on the clinical validity of DSM-5-APS, focusing on recent advances in diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

A multistep literature search using the Web of Science database, Cochrane Central Register of Reviews, Ovid/PsychINFO, conference proceedings, and trial registries from database inception to June 16, 2019, was conducted following PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines and PROSPERO protocol. Studies with original data investigating individuals diagnosed using DSM-5-APS or meeting comparable criteria were included. The results of the systematic review were summarized in tables and narratively synthesized against established evidence-based antecedent, concurrent, and prognostic validators. A quantitative meta-analysis was conducted to explore the cumulative risk of psychosis onset at 6, 12, 24, and 36 months in individuals diagnosed using DSM-5-APS criteria.

FINDINGS

The systematic review included 56 articles, which reported on 124 validators, including 15 antecedent, 55 concurrent, and 54 prognostic validators. The epidemiological prevalence of the general non-help-seeking young population meeting DSM-5-APS criteria was 0.3%; the prevalence of individuals meeting DSM-5-APS criteria was variable in clinical samples. The interrater reliability for DSM-5-APS criteria was comparable with that of other DSM-5 mental disorders and can be optimized by the use of specific psychometric instruments. DSM-5-APS criteria were associated with frequent depressive comorbid disorders, distress, suicidality, and functional impairment. The meta-analysis included 23 prospective cohort studies, including 2376 individuals. The meta-analytical risk of psychosis onset was 11% at 6 months, 15% at 12 months, 20% at 24 months, and 23% at 36 months. Research into predisposing and precipitating epidemiological factors, neurobiological correlates, and effective treatments for DSM-5-APS criteria has been limited.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Over recent years, DSM-5-APS criteria have received substantial concurrent and prognostic validation, mostly driven by research into the clinical high-risk state for psychosis. Precipitating and predisposing factors, neurobiological correlates, and effective treatments are undetermined to date.

Preventive Treatments for Psychosis: Umbrella Review (Just the Evidence)

Background: Indicated primary prevention in young people at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) is a promising avenue for improving outcomes of one of the most severe mental disorders but their effectiveness has recently been questioned. Methods: Umbrella review. A multi-step independent literature search of Web of Science until January 11, 2019, identified interventional meta-analyses in CHR-P individuals. The individual randomised controlled trials that were analysed by the meta-analyses were extracted. A review of ongoing trials and a simulation of living meta-analysis complemented the analysis. Results: Seven meta-analyses investigating preventive treatments in CHR-P individuals were included. None of them produced pooled effect sizes across psychological, pharmacological, or other types of interventions. The outcomes analysed encompassed risk of psychosis onset, the acceptability of treatments, the severity of attenuated positive/negative psychotic symptoms, depression, symptom-related distress, social functioning, general functioning, and quality of life. These meta-analyses were based on 20 randomised controlled trials: the vast majority defined the prevention of psychosis onset as their primary outcome of interest and only powered to large effect sizes. There was no evidence to favour any preventive intervention over any other (or control condition) for improving any of these clinical outcomes. Caution is required when making clinical recommendations for the prevention of psychosis in individuals at risk. Discussion: Prevention of psychosis from a CHR-P state has been, and should remain, the primary outcome of interventional research, refined and complemented by other clinically meaningful outcomes. Stagnation of knowledge should promote innovative and collaborative research efforts, in line with the progressive and incremental nature of medical knowledge. Advancements will most likely be associated with the development of new experimental therapeutics that are ongoing along with the ability to deconstruct the high heterogeneity within CHR-P populations. This would require the estimation of treatment-specific effect sizes through living individual participant data meta-analyses, controlling risk enrichment during recruitment, statistical power, and embedding precision medicine within youth mental health services that can accommodate sequential prognosis and advanced trial designs. Conclusions: The evidence-based challenges and proposed solutions addressed by this umbrella review can inform the next generation of research into preventive treatments for psychosis.

The Critical Need for Help-Seeking Controls in Clinical High-Risk Research

Despite rapidly growing knowledge of the clinical high-risk (CHR) state for psychosis, the vast majority of case-control studies have relied on healthy volunteers as a reference point for drawing inferences about the CHR construct. Researchers have long recognized that results generated from this design are limited by significant interpretive concerns, yet little attention has been given to how these concerns affect the growing field of CHR research. We argue that overreliance on healthy controls in CHR research threatens the validity of inferences concerning group differences, hinders advances in understanding the development of psychosis, and limits clinical progress. We suggest that the combined use of healthy and help-seeking (i.e., psychiatric) controls is a necessary step for the next generation of CHR research. We then evaluate methods for help-seeking control studies, identify the available CHR studies that have used such designs, discuss select findings in this literature, and offer recommendations for research.

Clinical-learning versus machine-learning for transdiagnostic prediction of psychosis onset in individuals at-risk

Predicting the onset of psychosis in individuals at-risk is based on robust prognostic model building methods including a priori clinical knowledge (also termed clinical-learning) to preselect predictors or machine-learning methods to select predictors automatically. To date, there is no empirical research comparing the prognostic accuracy of these two methods for the prediction of psychosis onset. In a first experiment, no improved performance was observed when machine-learning methods (LASSO and RIDGE) were applied-using the same predictors-to an individualised, transdiagnostic, clinically based, risk calculator previously developed on the basis of clinical-learning (predictors: age, gender, age by gender, ethnicity, ICD-10 diagnostic spectrum), and externally validated twice. In a second experiment, two refined versions of the published model which expanded the granularity of the ICD-10 diagnosis were introduced: ICD-10 diagnostic categories and ICD-10 diagnostic subdivisions. Although these refined versions showed an increase in apparent performance, their external performance was similar to the original model. In a third experiment, the three refined models were analysed under machine-learning and clinical-learning with a variable event per variable ratio (EPV). The best performing model under low EPVs was obtained through machine-learning approaches. The development of prognostic models on the basis of a priori clinical knowledge, large samples and adequate events per variable is a robust clinical prediction method to forecast psychosis onset in patients at-risk, and is comparable to machine-learning methods, which are more difficult to interpret and implement. Machine-learning methods should be preferred for high dimensional data when no a priori knowledge is available.

E-Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Viewpoint on Potential of Digital Innovations for Preventive Psychiatry

E-mental health is an emerging area of research that has the potential to overcome some of the current barriers to progress in working with people at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P). This article provides an overview of how e-mental health could be used in the detection, prediction, and treatment in the CHR-P population. Specifically, we evaluate e-detection, e-prediction, and e-therapeutics for this clinical population. E-mental health holds great promise to improve current management of CHR-P individuals.

Oxytocin modulates hippocampal perfusion in people at clinical high risk for psychosis

Preclinical and human studies suggest that hippocampal dysfunction is a key factor in the onset of psychosis. People at Clinical High Risk for psychosis (CHR-P) present with a clinical syndrome that can include social withdrawal and have a 20-35% risk of developing psychosis in the next 2 years. Recent research shows that resting hippocampal blood flow is altered in CHR-P individuals and predicts adverse clinical outcomes, such as non-remission/transition to frank psychosis. Previous work in healthy males indicates that a single dose of intranasal oxytocin has positive effects on social function and marked effects on resting hippocampal blood flow. The present study examined the effects of intranasal oxytocin on hippocampal blood flow in CHR-P individuals. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover design, 30 CHR-P males were studied using pseudo-continuous Arterial Spin Labelling on 2 occasions, once after 40IU intranasal oxytocin and once after placebo. The effects of oxytocin on left hippocampal blood flow were examined in a region-of-interest analysis of data acquired at 22-28 and at 30-36 minutes post-intranasal administration. Relative to placebo, administration of oxytocin was associated with increased hippocampal blood flow at both time points (p = .0056; p = .034), although the effect at the second did not survive adjustment for the effect of global blood flow. These data indicate that oxytocin can modulate hippocampal function in CHR-P individuals and therefore merits further investigation as a candidate novel treatment for this group.

Individualized Prediction of Transition to Psychosis in 1,676 Individuals at Clinical High Risk: Development and Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

Background: The Clinical High Risk state for Psychosis (CHR-P) has become the cornerstone of modern preventive psychiatry. The next stage of clinical advancements rests on the ability to formulate a more accurate prognostic estimate at the individual subject level. Individual Participant Data Meta-Analyses (IPD-MA) are robust evidence synthesis methods that can also offer powerful approaches to the development and validation of personalized prognostic models. The aim of the study was to develop and validate an individualized, clinically based prognostic model for forecasting transition to psychosis from a CHR-P stage. Methods: A literature search was performed between January 30, 2016, and February 6, 2016, consulting PubMed, Psychinfo, Picarta, Embase, and ISI Web of Science, using search terms ("ultra high risk" OR "clinical high risk" OR "at risk mental state") AND [(conver* OR transition* OR onset OR emerg* OR develop*) AND psychosis] for both longitudinal and intervention CHR-P studies. Clinical knowledge was used to a priori select predictors: age, gender, CHR-P subgroup, the severity of attenuated positive psychotic symptoms, the severity of attenuated negative psychotic symptoms, and level of functioning at baseline. The model, thus, developed was validated with an extended form of internal validation. Results: Fifteen of the 43 studies identified agreed to share IPD, for a total sample size of 1,676. There was a high level of heterogeneity between the CHR-P studies with regard to inclusion criteria, type of assessment instruments, transition criteria, preventive treatment offered. The internally validated prognostic performance of the model was higher than chance but only moderate [Harrell's C-statistic 0.655, 95% confidence interval (CIs), 0.627-0.682]. Conclusion: This is the first IPD-MA conducted in the largest samples of CHR-P ever collected to date. An individualized prognostic model based on clinical predictors available in clinical routine was developed and internally validated, reaching only moderate prognostic performance. Although personalized risk prediction is of great value in the clinical practice, future developments are essential, including the refinement of the prognostic model and its external validation. However, because of the current high diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic heterogeneity of CHR-P studies, IPD-MAs in this population may have an limited intrinsic power to deliver robust prognostic models.

Real World Implementation of a Transdiagnostic Risk Calculator for the Automatic Detection of Individuals at Risk of Psychosis in Clinical Routine: Study Protocol

Background: Primary indicated prevention in individuals at-risk for psychosis has the potential to improve the outcomes of this disorder. The ability to detect the majority of at-risk individuals is the main barrier toward extending benefits for the lives of many adolescents and young adults. Current detection strategies are highly inefficient. Only 5% (standalone specialized early detection services) to 12% (youth mental health services) of individuals who will develop a first psychotic disorder can be detected at the time of their at-risk stage. To overcome these challenges a pragmatic, clinically-based, individualized, transdiagnostic risk calculator has been developed to detect individuals at-risk of psychosis in secondary mental health care at scale. This calculator has been externally validated and has demonstrated good prognostic performance. However, it is not known whether it can be used in the real world clinical routine. For example, clinicians may not be willing to adhere to the recommendations made by the transdiagnostic risk calculator. Implementation studies are needed to address pragmatic challenges relating to the real world use of the transdiagnostic risk calculator. The aim of the current study is to provide in-vitro and in-vivo feasibility data to support the implementation of the transdiagnostic risk calculator in clinical routine. Method: This is a study which comprises of two subsequent phases: an in-vitro phase of 1 month and an in-vivo phase of 11 months. The in-vitro phase aims at developing and integrating the transdiagnostic risk calculator in the local electronic health register (primary outcome). The in-vivo phase aims at addressing the clinicians' adherence to the recommendations made by the transdiagnostic risk calculator (primary outcome) and other secondary feasibility parameters that are necessary to estimate the resources needed for its implementation. Discussion: This is the first implementation study for risk prediction models in individuals at-risk for psychosis. Ultimately, successful implementation is the true measure of a prediction model's utility. Therefore, the overall translational deliverable of the current study would be to extend the benefits of primary indicated prevention and improve outcomes of first episode psychosis. This may produce significant social benefits for many adolescents and young adults and their families.

Short clinically-based prediction model to forecast transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk state

Objective:

The predictive accuracy of the Clinical High Risk criteria for Psychosis (CHR-P) regarding the future development of the disorder remains suboptimal. It is therefore necessary to incorporate refined risk estimation tools which can be applied at the individual subject level. The aim of the study was to develop an easy-to use, short refined risk estimation tool to predict the development of psychosis in a new CHR-P cohort recruited in European country with less established early detection services.

Methods:

A cohort of 105 CHR-P individuals was assessed with the Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States12/2006, and then followed for a median period of 36 months (25th-75th percentile:10–59 months) for transition to psychosis. A multivariate Cox regression model predicting transition was generated with preselected clinical predictors and was internally validated with 1000 bootstrap resamples.

Results:

Speech disorganization and unusual thought content were selected as potential predictors of conversion on the basis of published literature. The prediction model was significant (p < 0.0001) and confirmed that both speech disorganization (HR = 1.69; 95%CI: 1.39–2.05) and unusual thought content (HR = 1.51; 95%CI: 1.27–1.80) were significantly associated with transition. The prognostic accuracy of the model was adequate (Harrell’s c- index = 0.79), even after optimism correction through internal validation procedures (Harrell’s c-index = 0.78).

Conclusions:

The clinical prediction model developed, and internally validated, herein to predict transition from a CHR-P to psychosis may be a promising tool for use in clinical settings. It has been incorporated into an online tool available at:https://link.konsta.com.pl/psychosis. Future external replication studies are needed.

Transdiagnostic Individualized Clinically Based Risk Calculator for the Detection of Individuals at Risk and the Prediction of Psychosis: Model Refinement Including Nonlinear Effects of Age

Background: The first rate-limiting step for primary indicated prevention of psychosis is the detection of young people who may be at risk. The ability of specialized clinics to detect individuals at risk for psychosis is limited. A clinically based, individualized, transdiagnostic risk calculator has been developed and externally validated to improve the detection of individuals at risk in secondary mental health care. This calculator employs core sociodemographic and clinical predictors, including age, which is defined in linear terms. Recent evidence has suggested a nonlinear impact of age on the probability of psychosis onset. Aim: To define at a meta-analytical level the function linking age and probability of psychosis onset. To incorporate this function in a refined version of the transdiagnostic risk calculator and to test its prognostic performance, compared to the original specification. Design: Secondary analyses on a previously published meta-analysis and clinical register-based cohort study based on 2008-2015 routine secondary mental health care in South London and Maudsley (SLaM) National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust. Participants: All patients receiving a first index diagnosis of non-organic/non-psychotic mental disorder within SLaM NHS Trust in the period 2008-2015. Main outcome measure: Prognostic accuracy (Harrell's C). Results: A total of 91,199 patients receiving a first index diagnosis of non-organic and non-psychotic mental disorder within SLaM NHS Trust were included in the derivation (33,820) or external validation (54,716) datasets. The mean follow-up was 1,588 days. The meta-analytical estimates showed that a second-degree fractional polynomial model with power (-2, -1: age1 = age^-2 and age2 = age^-1) was the best-fitting model (P < 0.001). The refined model that included this function showed an excellent prognostic accuracy in the external validation (Harrell's C = 0.805, 95% CI from 0.790 to 0.819), which was statistically higher than the original model, although of modest magnitude (Harrell's C change = 0.0136, 95% CIs from 0.006 to 0.021, P < 0.001). Conclusions: The use of a refined version of the clinically based, individualized, transdiagnostic risk calculator, which allows for nonlinearity in the association between age and risk of psychosis onset, may offer a modestly improved prognostic performance. This calculator may be particularly useful in young individuals at risk of developing psychosis who access secondary mental health care.

Pan-London Network for Psychosis-Prevention (PNP)

Background: The empirical success of the Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm is determined by the concurrent integration of efficient detection of cases at-risk, accurate prognosis, and effective preventive treatment within specialized clinical services. The characteristics of the CHR-P services are relatively under-investigated. Method: A Pan-London Network for psychosis prevention (PNP) was created across urban CHR-P services. These services were surveyed to collect the following: description of the service and catchment area, outreach, service users, interventions, and outcomes. The results were analyzed with descriptive statistics and Kaplan Meier failure function. Results: The PNP included five CHR-P services across two NHS Trusts: Outreach and Support In South-London (OASIS) in Lambeth and Southwark, OASIS in Croydon and Lewisham, Tower Hamlets Early Detection Service (THEDS), City & Hackney At-Risk Mental State Service (HEADS UP) and Newham Early Intervention Service (NEIS). The PNP serves a total population of 2,318,515 Londoners (830,889; age, 16-35 years), with a yearly recruitment capacity of 220 CHR-P individuals (age, 22.55 years). Standalone teams (OASIS and THEDS) are more established and successful than teams that share their resources with other mental health services (HEADS UP, NEIS). Characteristics of the catchment areas, outreach and service users, differ across PNP services; all of them offer psychotherapy to prevent psychosis. The PNP is supporting several CHR-P translational research projects. Conclusions: The PNP is the largest CHR-P clinical network in the UK; it represents a reference benchmark for implementing detection, prognosis, and care in the real-world clinical routine, as well as for translating research innovations into practice.

Improving the Detection of Individuals at Clinical Risk for Psychosis in the Community, Primary and Secondary Care: An Integrated Evidence-Based Approach

Background: The first rate-limiting step for improving outcomes of psychosis through preventive interventions in people at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) is the ability to accurately detect individuals who are at risk for the development of this disorder. Currently, this detection power is sub-optimal. Methods: This is a conceptual and nonsystematic review of the literature, focusing on the work conducted by leading research teams in the field. The results will be structured in the following sections: understanding the CHR-P assessment, validity of the CHR-P as a universal risk state for psychosis, and improving the detection of at-risk individuals in secondary mental health care, in primary care, and in the community. Results: CHR-P instruments can provide adequate prognostic accuracy for the prediction of psychosis provided that they are employed in samples who have undergone risk enrichment during recruitment. This substantially limits their detection power in real-world settings. Furthermore, there is initial evidence that not all cases of psychosis onset are preceded by a CHR-P stage. A transdiagnostic individualized risk calculator could be used to automatically screen secondary mental health care medical notes to detect those at risk of psychosis and refer them to standard CHR-P assessment. Similar risk estimation tools for use in primary care are under development and promise to boost the detection of patients at risk in this setting. To improve the detection of young people who may be at risk of psychosis in the community, it is necessary to adopt digital and/or sequential screening approaches. These solutions are based on recent scientific evidence and have potential for implementation internationally. Conclusions: The best strategy to improve the detection of patients at risk for psychosis is to implement a clinical research program that integrates different but complementary detection approaches across community, primary, and secondary care. These solutions are based on recent scientific advancements in the development of risk estimation tools and e-health approaches and have the potential to be applied across different clinical settings.

NEURAPRO: a multi-centre RCT of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids versus placebo in young people at ultra-high risk of psychotic disorders-medium-term follow-up and clinical course

This study reports a medium-term follow-up of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in ultra-high risk for psychosis (UHR) patients. Primary outcomes of interest were transition to psychosis and symptomatic and functional outcome. A secondary aim was to investigate clinical predictors of medium-term outcome. Three hundred four UHR participants were recruited across 10 specialised early psychosis services in Australia, Asia, and Europe. The intervention consisted of 1.4 g/daily of omega-3 PUFA or placebo, plus up to 20 sessions of cognitive-behavioural case management (CBCM), over the 6-month study period, with participants receiving further CBCM sessions on basis of need between months 6-12. Mean time to follow-up was 3.4 (median = 3.3; SD = 0.9) years. There was a modest increase in transitions between 12-month and medium-term follow-up (11-13%) and substantial improvement in symptoms and functioning between baseline and follow-up, with no differences between the treatment groups. Most improvement had been achieved by end of the intervention. 55% of the sample received mental health treatment between end of intervention and follow-up. Omega-3 PUFA did not provide additional benefits to good quality psychosocial intervention over the medium term. Although most improvement had been achieved by end of intervention the substantial rates of post-intervention mental health service use indicate longer-term clinical need in UHR patients. The post-intervention phase treatment or the longer-term effect of CBCM, or a combination of the two, may have contributed to maintaining the gains achieved during the intervention phase and prevented significant deterioration after this time.

Efficacy and Acceptability of Interventions for Attenuated Positive Psychotic Symptoms in Individuals at Clinical High Risk of Psychosis: A Network Meta-Analysis

Background: Attenuated positive psychotic symptoms represent the defining features of the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) criteria. The effectiveness of each available treatment for reducing attenuated positive psychotic symptoms remains undetermined. This network meta-analysis (NMA) investigates the consistency and magnitude of the effects of treatments on attenuated positive psychotic symptoms in CHR-P individuals, weighting the findings for acceptability. Methods: Web of Science (MEDLINE), PsycInfo, CENTRAL and unpublished/gray literature were searched up to July 18, 2017. Randomized controlled trials in CHR-P individuals, comparing at least two interventions and reporting on attenuated positive psychotic symptoms at follow-up were included, following PRISMA guidelines. The primary outcome (efficacy) was level of attenuated positive psychotic symptoms at 6 and 12 months; effect sizes reported as standardized mean difference (SMD) and 95% CIs in mean follow-up scores between two compared interventions. The secondary outcome was treatment acceptability [reported as odds ratio (OR)]. NMAs were conducted for both primary and secondary outcomes. Treatments were cluster-ranked by surface under the cumulative ranking curve values for efficacy and acceptability. Assessments of biases, assumptions, sensitivity analyses and complementary pairwise meta-analyses for the primary outcome were also conducted. Results: Overall, 1,707 patients from 14 studies (57% male, mean age = 20) were included, representing the largest evidence synthesis of the effect of preventive treatments on attenuated positive psychotic symptoms to date. In the NMA for efficacy, ziprasidone + Needs-Based Intervention (NBI) was found to be superior to NBI (SMD = -1.10, 95% CI -2.04 to -0.15), Cognitive Behavioral Therapy-French and Morrison protocol (CBT-F) + NBI (SMD = -1.03, 95% CI -2.05 to -0.01), and risperidone + CBT-F + NBI (SMD = -1.18, 95% CI -2.29 to -0.07) at 6 months. However, these findings did not survive sensitivity analyses. For acceptability, aripiprazole + NBI was significantly more acceptable than olanzapine + NBI (OR = 3.73; 95% CI 1.01 to 13.81) at 12 months only. No further significant NMA effects were observed at 6 or 12 months. The results were not affected by inconsistency or evident small-study effects, but only two studies had an overall low risk of bias. Conclusion: On the basis of the current literature, there is no robust evidence to favor any specific intervention for improving attenuated positive psychotic symptoms in CHR-P individuals.

Can We Predict Psychosis Outside the Clinical High-Risk State? A Systematic Review of Non-Psychotic Risk Syndromes for Mental Disorders

Recent evidence has suggested that psychosis could develop not only in people at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) but also in those with clinical risk syndromes for emergent nonpsychotic mental disorders. The proportion of people with these clinical risk syndromes who will develop psychosis rather than to other nonpsychotic mental disorders is undetermined. Electronic databases were searched for studies reporting on clinical risk syndromes for the development of emergent nonpsychotic mental disorders. Incidence of emerging psychotic and nonpsychotic mental disorders defined on the ICD or DSM. Of a total of 9 studies relating to 3006 nonpsychotic at-risk individuals were included. Within prospective studies (n = 4, sample = 1051), the pooled incidence of new psychotic disorders across these clinical risk syndromes was of 12.9 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 4.3 to 38.6) and that of nonpsychotic disorders (n = 3, sample = 538) was of 43.5 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 30.9 to 61.3). Psychotic disorders may emerge outside the CHR-P paradigm, from clinical risk syndromes for incident nonpsychotic disorders, albeit at lower rates than in the CHR-P group. The clinical risk syndromes for emerging nonpsychotic disorders may exhibit a pluripotential risk of developing several types of mental disorders compared with CHR-P. If substantiated by future research, the current findings suggest that it may be useful to move beyond the current strategy of identifying individuals meeting CHR-P criteria only.

What causes psychosis? An umbrella review of risk and protective factors

Psychosis is a heterogeneous psychiatric condition for which a multitude of risk and protective factors have been suggested. This umbrella review aimed to classify the strength of evidence for the associations between each factor and psychotic disorders whilst controlling for several biases. The Web of Knowledge database was searched to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies which examined associations between socio-demographic, parental, perinatal, later factors or antecedents and psychotic disorders, and which included a comparison group of healthy controls, published from 1965 to January 31, 2017. The literature search and data extraction followed PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines. The association between each factor and ICD or DSM diagnoses of non-organic psychotic disorders was graded into convincing, highly suggestive, suggestive, weak, or non-significant according to a standardized classification based on: number of psychotic cases, random-effects p value, largest study 95% confidence interval, heterogeneity between studies, 95% prediction interval, small study effect, and excess significance bias. In order to assess evidence for temporality of association, we also conducted sensitivity analyses restricted to data from prospective studies. Fifty-five meta-analyses or systematic reviews were included in the umbrella review, corresponding to 683 individual studies and 170 putative risk or protective factors for psychotic disorders. Only the ultra-high-risk state for psychosis (odds ratio, OR=9.32, 95% CI: 4.91-17.72) and Black-Caribbean ethnicity in England (OR=4.87, 95% CI: 3.96-6.00) showed convincing evidence of association. Six factors were highly suggestive (ethnic minority in low ethnic density area, second generation immigrants, trait anhedonia, premorbid IQ, minor physical anomalies, and olfactory identification ability), and nine were suggestive (urbanicity, ethnic minority in high ethnic density area, first generation immigrants, North-African immigrants in Europe, winter/spring season of birth in Northern hemisphere, childhood social withdrawal, childhood trauma, Toxoplasma gondii IgG, and non-right handedness). When only prospective studies were considered, the evidence was convincing for ultra-high-risk state and suggestive for urbanicity only. In summary, this umbrella review found several factors to be associated with psychotic disorders with different levels of evidence. These risk or protective factors represent a starting point for further etiopathological research and for the improvement of the prediction of psychosis.