The comparative sero-epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in 11 countries in the European region

UK paediatricians' attitudes towards the chicken pox vaccine: The SPOTTY study

OBJECTIVES

An effective vaccine for chicken pox has been included in immunisation schedules since the 1990s. In the UK the recommendation for routine inclusion came in November 2023; it has not yet been implemented. We explored paediatricians' attitudes towards the vaccine and their personal and professional use; as this has been shown to be an influential factor in parents' vaccine decision making.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional online survey using a structured questionnaire exploring attitudes and knowledge towards the chicken pox vaccine of UK based paediatricians between June and September 2023.

RESULTS

We received 272 responses, 211 female (78%), 228 based in England (85%) with remainder in Wales (23), Scotland (8) and Northern Ireland (9); 150 (56%) reporting practicing paediatrics <10 years. The majority (n = 207; 78%) agreed that the chicken pox vaccine should be included in the UK routine schedule. Half the cohort, 52% (n = 135), reported having their own children vaccinated against chicken pox, 73% of those with appropriately aged children. Most, 86% (n = 225), recommended the vaccine to family and friends routinely or when asked; however, 42% (n = 108) did not feel able to advise patients' parents due to insufficient information. Of those who do not recommend the vaccine to family and friends, 22 (59%) reported insufficient information to discuss in a professional setting. Of those who did not think it should be included, or were unsure, 38/55 (69%) also felt they had insufficient information to advise parents regarding the vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Whilst many paediatricians choose to vaccinate their children and agreed the chicken pox vaccine should be added to the routine schedule, the proportion disagreeing is not insignificant. Targeted education to improve paediatricians' knowledge of the chicken pox vaccine and their confidence discussing it should be implemented prior to the national roll out.

An economic evaluation and incremental analysis of the cost effectiveness of three universal childhood varicella vaccination strategies for Ireland

BACKGROUND

The cost effectiveness of childhood varicella vaccination is uncertain, as evidenced by variation in national health policies. Within the European Economic Area (EEA), only 10 of 30 countries offer universally funded childhood varicella vaccination. This study estimates the cost effectiveness of universal childhood varicella vaccination for one EEA country (Ireland), highlighting the difference in cost effectiveness between alternative vaccination strategies.

METHODS

An age-structured dynamic transmission model, simulating varicella zoster virus transmission, was developed to analyse the impact of three vaccination strategies; one-dose at 12 months old, two-dose at 12 and 15 months old (short-interval), and two-dose at 12 months and five years old (long-interval). The analysis adopted an 80-year time horizon and considered payer and societal perspectives. Clinical effectiveness was based on cases of varicella and subsequently herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia avoided, and outcomes were expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs were presented in 2022 Irish Euro and cost effectiveness was interpreted with reference to a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY gained.

RESULTS

From the payer perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for a one-dose strategy, compared with no vaccination, was estimated at €8,712 per QALY gained. The ICER for the next least expensive strategy, two-dose long-interval, compared with one-dose, was estimated at €45,090 per QALY gained. From a societal perspective, all three strategies were cost-saving compared with no vaccination; the two-dose short-interval strategy dominated, yielding the largest cost savings and health benefits. Results were stable across a range of sensitivity and scenario analyses.

CONCLUSION

A one-dose strategy was highly cost effective from the payer perspective, driven by a reduction in hospitalisations. Two-dose strategies were cost saving from the societal perspective. These results should be considered alongside other factors such as acceptability of a new vaccine within the overall childhood immunisation schedule, programme objectives and budget impact.

Burden of chickenpox complications in Poland, 2006 to 2021: A comprehensive registry-based study

BackgroundChickenpox, a vaccine-preventable disease caused by the varicella zoster virus, generally presents with mild symptoms but can cause complications necessitating hospitalisation. In Poland, since 2009, vaccination has been obligatory for children up to 12 years of age who are particularly vulnerable to infection and for children in their vicinity.AimTo examine the burden of chickenpox complications and the trends of hospitalisation arising from these complications over time in the Polish population.MethodsData spanning 2006-21 were sourced from the Polish Infectious Diseases Surveillance System, the Nationwide General Hospital Morbidity Study and the Statistics Poland death registry. Standardised and age-specific incidence rates, hospital discharge rates and number of deaths because of chickenpox were calculated. Moreover, the joinpoint regression model was used to analyse trends of annual hospital discharge rates.ResultsOver the analysed timeframe, 25,804 hospitalisations and 52 deaths attributable to chickenpox complications were documented, and 1.0% of chickenpox cases required hospitalisation because of chickenpox. Age-standardised hospitalisation rates varied between 2.3 and 9.6 per 100,000 population. The analysis revealed no statistically significant trend in overall hospital discharge rates from chickenpox complications. However, a notable increase in hospitalisation rates was observed in children aged 0-4 and among inhabitants of rural areas, with annual percentage changes of 4.9% and 3.4% respectively.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the implementation of a universal chickenpox immunisation programme, supported by health education, should be considered to reduce the number of hospitalisations and nearly eliminate deaths because of chickenpox.

Healthcare resource use and costs of varicella and its complications: A systematic literature review

Varicella is a highly contagious disease caused by the varicella zoster virus (VZV). While the disease is usually mild, severe complications can occur requiring costly hospitalization. A thorough understanding of the healthcare resource use (HCRU) and costs of varicella is needed to inform health-economic models of preventive strategies. A systematic literature review was carried out to retrieve relevant publications between 1999 and 2021, reporting HCRU and cost outcomes for varicella and its complications. Data were extracted and stratified according to pre-specified age groups and complication categories. Costs were re-based to a $US2020 footing using both purchasing power parity and the medical component of consumer price indexes. Data were summarized descriptively due to high heterogeneity in study design and outcome reporting. Forty-four publications fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria of which 28 were conducted in Europe, 6 in Middle East and Asia, 5 in South America, 3 in North America, and 2 in multiple regions. Primary healthcare visits accounted for 30% to 85% of total direct costs. Hospitalization costs varied between $1,308 and $38,268 per episode depending on country, complication type, and length of stay, contributing between 2% and 60% to total direct costs. Indirect costs, mostly driven by workdays lost, accounted for approximately two-thirds of total costs due to varicella. The management of varicella and related complications can lead to substantial HCRU and costs for patients and the healthcare system. Additional research is needed to further characterize the varicella-associated economic burden and its broader impact from a societal standpoint.

Trends in age-specific varicella incidences following the introduction of the general recommendation for varicella immunization in Germany, 2006-2022

BACKGROUND

In Germany, general childhood varicella vaccination has been recommended since 2004. A feared effect of low vaccination coverage is a possible shift in incidence from children to teenagers and young adults who are at higher risk of severe outcomes. If true, this shift would possibly necessitate changes to the national immunization strategy. We aimed to evaluate the effects of the general vaccination recommendation on age-specific varicella incidences in Germany in general and examine specifically whether a shift from children to teenagers (15 to 19 years) has occurred.

METHODS

Trends in age-specific incidences were evaluated using triangulation with the following datasets: national mandatory notification data (N) (2014-2022), billing data of the statutory health insurance associations (I) (2009-2017) and data from a doctor's sentinel system (S) (2006-2017). Similar clinical case definitions were used in N and S, while I used ICD-10-codes. Age groups were stratified as available in all three systems. Incidences per year were calculated based on the total population (N), the number of statutory health insured (I), and extrapolated from S to the total population.

RESULTS

During all years of observation, age-specific incidences have dropped significantly across all age-groups for S und I. The age groups (under 10 years) with initially highest incidences were the ones with the strongest reductions (under 1 year: -90%, 1-4 years: -95.5%, 5-9 years: -89.2% for S; -67.7%, -78%, -79.3% for I). A single 53.1% increase in the low incidence in S among 15-19-year olds observed in 2017 compared to 2016 could not be confirmed in N or I. Increases in incidences during the first two years of N are probably due to improved notification behaviour over these years. In 2019, all age-specific incidences increased (N), with 15 to 19-year olds showing the highest relative increase (28.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Since the introduction of the general vaccine recommendation against varicella, incidences across all age-groups have declined significantly. Available data indicate no evidence for a shift in disease incidence to older age groups. Every incidence increase beyond childhood age should however be followed up closely. So far, children and adolescents have both benefitted from the current vaccination strategy.

Decline in varicella cases contacting primary health care after introduction of varicella vaccination in Finland - A population-based register study

A two-dose varicella vaccination programme at the age of 18 months and 6 years started in September 2017 in Finland with catch-up vaccinations, based on earlier modelling results, for children <12 years (born in 2006 or later) with no history of varicella. Nationwide population-based register data were used to assess the age-specific vaccination coverage and the annual incidence rates of varicella cases contacting public primary health care in 2014-2020. Age-specific incidence rates after (2022) and before (2014-2016) the implementation of the vaccination programme was compared by incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95 % confidence interval. In 2019-2022, the first-dose coverage of varicella vaccination among children following the routine vaccination programme ranged from 85 to 87 % (children born in 2016 or later). The second-dose coverage was 58 % for the children born in 2016. The coverage of the catch-up vaccinations ranged from 18 % (children born in 2006) to 82 % (children born in 2015) for the first dose and from 10 % to 64 % for the second dose in the respective birth cohorts. In 2022, compared to the pre-vaccination period (2014-2016) the annual incidence rate of varicella cases contacting public primary health care declined in all age groups. The reduction ranged from 92 % to 98 % among the children eligible for the vaccinations (born 2006 or later). The 87 % reduction in the incidence rate among the unvaccinated children < 1 year suggests the indirect effect of the vaccinations. Introducing varicella vaccinations with catch-up was associated with rapid reduction in the varicella cases contacting primary health care in all ages. However, the coverage of the routine programme needs to be improved further as presently susceptibles accumulate and enable thus further outbreaks in coming decades.

Epidemiology of hospitalisations due to chickenpox and quality of life lost in community and hospital settings: protocol for a prospective cohort study across two countries

INTRODUCTION

While still a ubiquitous disease of childhood, chickenpox has been effectively controlled in many countries through the use of vaccination. Previous health economic assessment of the use of these vaccines in the UK were based on limited quality of life data and only routinely collected epidemiological outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This two armed study will carry prospective surveillance of hospital admissions and recruit from community settings to measure the acute quality of life loss caused by paediatric chickenpox both in the UK and in Portugal. The quality of life effects on children and their primary and secondary caregivers will be assessed using the EuroQol EQ-5D with the Child Health Utility instrument (CHU-9) in addition for children. Results will be used to derive quality-adjusted life year loss estimates for cases of simple varicella and the secondary complications.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

We have received National Health Service ethical approval (REC ref: 18/ES/0040) for the inpatient arm, university ethical approval (University of Bristol ref: 60721) for the community arm and 10 sites currently are recruiting in the UK and 14 in Portugal. Informed consent is obtained from the parent(s). Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed publications.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN15017985.

Varicella-Zoster Virus Prevalence among Pregnant Women: A European Epidemiological Review

Europe has faced a massive spread of the varicella-zoster virus through the years. Since the introduction of an effective vaccine, complications and severe forms of chickenpox have been restricted. Nevertheless, among the population, some categories need specific care, such as pregnant women, who present one of the most fragile conditions facing this infection, both for the mother and the fetus. In this review, we highlight how the varicella-zoster virus can be dangerous during pregnancy, underlining the problem of treatment and vaccination, and collect information about the European epidemiology among this particular category of women.

Sero-Epidemiological Study of Bordetella pertussis Infection in the Italian General Population

A multicenter study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of pertussis IgG antibodies (anti-PTx) in the Italian population. Serum samples (4154) collected in the years 2019−2020 from subjects aged 6 to 90 years were tested. The anti-PTx IgG levels were determined by ELISA test. The limit of detection was 5 IU/mL (International Units per milliliter); values ≥ 40 IU/mL and ≥100 IU/mL indicate an infection that has occurred in recent years and a recent infection (occurred during the last year), respectively. The mean concentration of anti-PTx IgG antibodies in the tested samples was 13 IU/mL; 1.0% of subjects had a titer ≥ 100 IU/mL, 5.3% a titer between 40 and 100 IU/mL, and 38.9% a titer < 5 IU/mL. The mean antibody concentration was significantly higher in males than in females. The age group 25−39 years had the lowest percentage of negative subjects (36.9%) and the highest prevalence of subjects with antibody titers ≥ 100 IU/mL (1.3%). In the age group ≥ 65 years, the prevalence of subjects with titers between 40 and 100 IU/mL (6.7%) and the percentage of negative subjects (44.8%) was higher than in the other age groups. The results highlight the possible role of adolescents and adults in the transmission of B. pertussis.

Modeling the Impact of Exogenous Boosting and Universal Varicella Vaccination on the Clinical and Economic Burden of Varicella and Herpes Zoster in a Dynamic Population for England and Wales

Universal varicella vaccination (UVV) in England and Wales has been hindered by its potential impact on exogenous boosting and increase in herpes zoster (HZ) incidence. We projected the impact of ten UVV strategies in England and Wales on the incidence of varicella and HZ and evaluated their cost-effectiveness over 50 years. The Maternal-Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated transmission model was extended in a dynamically changing, age-structured population. Our model estimated that one- or two-dose UVV strategies significantly reduced varicella incidence (70–92%), hospitalizations (70–90%), and mortality (16–41%) over 50 years. A small rise in HZ cases was projected with UVV, peaking 22 years after introduction at 5.3–7.1% above pre-UVV rates. Subsequently, HZ incidence steadily decreased, falling 12.2–14.1% below pre-UVV rates after 50 years. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 20,000 GBP/QALY, each UVV strategy was cost-effective versus no UVV. Frontier analysis showed that one-dose UVV with MMRV-MSD administered at 18 months is the only cost-effective strategy compared to other strategies. HZ incidence varied under alternative exogenous boosting assumptions, but most UVV strategies remained cost-effective. HZ vaccination decreased HZ incidence with minimal impact on the cost-effectiveness. Introducing a UVV program would significantly reduce the clinical burden of varicella and be cost-effective versus no UVV after accounting for the impact on HZ incidence.

Identification of host-pathogen-disease relationships using a scalable multiplex serology platform in UK Biobank

Certain infectious agents are recognised causes of cancer and other chronic diseases. To understand the pathological mechanisms underlying such relationships, here we design a Multiplex Serology platform to measure quantitative antibody responses against 45 antigens from 20 infectious agents including human herpes, hepatitis, polyoma, papilloma, and retroviruses, as well as Chlamydia trachomatis, Helicobacter pylori and Toxoplasma gondii, then assayed a random subset of 9695 UK Biobank participants. We find seroprevalence estimates consistent with those expected from prior literature and confirm multiple associations of antibody responses with sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., lifetime sexual partners with C. trachomatis), HLA genetic variants (rs6927022 with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) EBNA1 antibodies) and disease outcomes (human papillomavirus-16 seropositivity with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and EBV responses with multiple sclerosis). Our accessible dataset is one of the largest incorporating diverse infectious agents in a prospective UK cohort offering opportunities to improve our understanding of host-pathogen-disease relationships with significant clinical and public health implications.

Modelling varicella vaccination - What does a lack of surge in herpes zoster incidence tell us about exogenous boosting?

BACKGROUND

For decades, assessments of the impact of universal varicella vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) have been made using mathematical modelling. Decreased virus circulation and the resulting diminished exogenous boosting have been predicted to lead to a surge in HZ incidence. Lately, the exogenous boosting hypothesis has been challenged due to a lack of an extensive surge in HZ incidence in countries with, by now long-standing universal varicella vaccination.

METHODS

In a deterministic compartmental transmission model of varicella zoster virus disease, we model various levels and duration of protection from boosting to explore the impact of successful childhood varicella vaccination on HZ incidence.

RESULTS

Considering total HZ incidence, lifelong and strong protection from boosting give a stable incidence of HZ for about 60 years followed by a decline, whereas lifelong intermediate protection leads to a decline. So does weak protection of intermediate duration. Full and short protection, lead to a small surge, while full and intermediate protection lead to the largest HZ surge. HZ incidence by age group show that total incidence is the result of opposing increasing and decreasing trends in the various age groups over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The absence of an extensive surge in HZ incidence after varicella vaccination can, especially during the first 20-30 years, occur in either strong, intermediate or weak boosting scenarios. The impact seems to depend on an interplay of the protective level and duration of the protection in determining the basic reactivation rate and the proportion of the population that is susceptible at the start of vaccination. However, the picture depends on whether the entire population or specific age groups are observed.

Severe chickenpox disease and seroprevalence in Sweden - implications for general vaccination

OBJECTIVES

To describe the current panorama of severe chickenpox disease and seroprevalence in Sweden, as a basis for the approaching decision on universal vaccination.

METHODS

We included patients discharged with an International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision-code for chickenpox (B01.1-9) in eight pediatric and infectious diseases departments in Stockholm and Gothenburg in 2012-2014 and reviewed their medical charts. Further, residual serum samples collected from 16 laboratories across Sweden were analyzed for varicella zoster IgG-antibodies to investigate the age-specific seroprevalences.

RESULTS

In all, 218 children and 46 adults were included in the hospital-based study, 87.2% of children and 63.0% of adults had complications. An underlying condition was not associated with an increased risk for complication. In children dehydration (31.7%), bacterial skin infections (29.8%) and neurological involvement (20.6%) were most frequent complications. Among adult cases, 63 % were born abroad. The seroepidemiological analysis included 957 patient samples. Seroprevalence was 66.7% at 5 years and 91.5% at 12 years. Infants and adolescents/adults were overrepresented among admitted patients compared to seroprevalence data.

CONCLUSIONS

Half of all complications in hospitalized chickenpox cases was seen in previously healthy children, which supports universal childhood vaccination. Adult migrants was a risk group for chickenpox hospitalization. Age-specific seroprevalence was similar to neighboring countries.

Transmissibility and transmission of respiratory viruses

Human respiratory virus infections lead to a spectrum of respiratory symptoms and disease severity, contributing to substantial morbidity, mortality and economic losses worldwide, as seen in the COVID-19 pandemic. Belonging to diverse families, respiratory viruses differ in how easy they spread (transmissibility) and the mechanism (modes) of transmission. Transmissibility as estimated by the basic reproduction number (R0) or secondary attack rate is heterogeneous for the same virus. Respiratory viruses can be transmitted via four major modes of transmission: direct (physical) contact, indirect contact (fomite), (large) droplets and (fine) aerosols. We know little about the relative contribution of each mode to the transmission of a particular virus in different settings, and how its variation affects transmissibility and transmission dynamics. Discussion on the particle size threshold between droplets and aerosols and the importance of aerosol transmission for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and influenza virus is ongoing. Mechanistic evidence supports the efficacies of non-pharmaceutical interventions with regard to virus reduction; however, more data are needed on their effectiveness in reducing transmission. Understanding the relative contribution of different modes to transmission is crucial to inform the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the population. Intervening against multiple modes of transmission should be more effective than acting on a single mode.

Clinically- versus serologically-identified varicella: A hidden infection burden. A ten-year follow-up from a randomized study in varicella-endemic countries

Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infections cause a substantial disease burden, which is underestimated due to incomplete reporting data and lack of serological surveillance. In this post-hoc analysis of a randomized, Phase IIIb clinical trial (NCT00226499) with a ten-year follow-up period, we report anti-VZV antibody levels and persistence in non-vaccinated children, as a varicella infection estimate in ten European countries with endemic varicella. The present analysis specifically focuses on clinical and serological data from the control group, which included 827 healthy participants aged 12–22 months who received two doses of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. The per-protocol cohort included 744 children for whom varicella occurrence was evaluated by clinical definitions, epidemiological links and PCR test outcomes. Anti-VZV antibody levels were assessed by ELISA. The primary objective of this analysis was to correlate varicella occurrence with anti-VZV antibody levels. Varicella was confirmed in 47% of MMR recipients. Among participants without reported varicella, the percentage of anti-VZV seropositive children increased to 75% and average anti-VZV antibody concentrations increased to 250 mIU/mL at year ten after vaccination, suggesting infection or exposure. An eight-fold increase in anti-VZV antibody concentrations between two consecutive visits, which is also observed after confirmed varicella, was detected in 37% of these participants during the follow-up period. About one-third of children not vaccinated against varicella and not diagnosed with varicella developed an anti-VZV immune response, suggesting subclinical varicella occurrence. Longitudinal studies combining serology and disease incidence are necessary to reliably estimate total varicella burden of infection.

Associations of Lifestyle and Anthropometric Factors With the Risk of Herpes Zoster: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

The role of lifestyle in development of herpes zoster remains unclear. We examined whether smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index, or physical activity were associated with zoster risk. We followed a population-based cohort of 101,894 respondents to the 2010 Danish National Health Survey (baseline, May 1, 2010) until zoster diagnosis, death, emigration, or July 1, 2014, whichever occurred first. We computed hazard ratios for zoster associated with each exposure, using Cox regression with age as the time scale and adjusting for potential confounders. Compared with never smokers, hazards for zoster were increased in former smokers (1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06, 1.30), but not in current smokers (1.00, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.13). Compared with low-risk alcohol consumption, neither intermediate-risk (0.95, 95% CI: 0.84, 1.07) nor high-risk alcohol consumption (0.99, 95% CI: 0.85, 1.15) was associated with zoster. We also found no increased hazard associated with weekly binge drinking versus not (0.93, 95% CI: 0.77, 1.11). Risk of zoster varied little by body mass index (referent = normal weight) and physical activity levels (referent = light level), with hazard ratios between 0.96 and 1.08. We observed no dose-response association between the exposures and zoster. The examined lifestyle and anthropometric factors thus were not risk factors for zoster.

Cost-effectiveness of varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in Sweden: An economic evaluation using a dynamic transmission model

OBJECTIVES

Comprehensive cost-effectiveness analyses of introducing varicella and/or herpes zoster vaccination in the Swedish national vaccination programme.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analyses based on epidemiological results from a specifically developed transmission model.

SETTING

National vaccination programme in Sweden, over an 85- or 20-year time horizon depending on the vaccination strategy.

PARTICIPANTS

Hypothetical cohorts of people aged 12 months and 65-years at baseline.

INTERVENTIONS

Four alternative vaccination strategies; 1, not to vaccinate; 2, varicella vaccination with one dose of the live attenuated vaccine at age 12 months and a second dose at age 18 months; 3, herpes zoster vaccination with one dose of the live attenuated vaccine at 65 years of age; and 4, both vaccine against varicella and herpes zoster with the before-mentioned strategies.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Accumulated cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) for each strategy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER).

RESULTS

It would be cost-effective to vaccinate against varicella (dominant), but not to vaccinate against herpes zoster (ICER of EUR 200,000), assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of EUR 50,000 per QALY. The incremental analysis between varicella vaccination only and the combined programme results in a cost per gained QALY of almost EUR 1.6 million.

CONCLUSIONS

The results from this study are central components for policy-relevant decision-making, and suggest that it was cost-effective to introduce varicella vaccination in Sweden, whereas herpes zoster vaccination with the live attenuated vaccine for the elderly was not cost-effective-the health effects of the latter vaccination cannot be considered reasonable in relation to its costs. Future observational and surveillance studies are needed to make reasonable predictions on how boosting affects the herpes zoster incidence in the population, and thus the cost-effectiveness of a vaccination programme against varicella. Also, the link between herpes zoster and sequelae need to be studied in more detail to include it suitably in health economic evaluations.

Estimating the basic reproductive number of varicella in South Korea incorporating social contact patterns and seroprevalence

Varicella, which is caused by the varicella zoster virus (VZV), is a common infectious disease affecting children. Varicella vaccines have been used for decades; however, vaccination policies vary across countries because of differences in VZV epidemiology. The basic reproductive number R0 _a transmissibility measure parameter, also differs from country to country. In this study R0 for varicella was estimated in South Korea using the contact rate matrix derived from averaged POLYMOD contact data, the Korean population, and proportionality factor fitted to the Korean VZV seroprevalence R0 for varicella in South Korea was estimated to be 5.67 (95% CI: 5.33, 6.33). Therefore, to reach the herd immunity threshold, the critical vaccine coverage should be greater than 82.4% with a perfect vaccine, or the primary vaccine failure proportion should be less than 17.6% with 100% coverage. Because of the relatively low seroconversion rate and rapidly waning immunity after one-dose vaccination in South Korea, the herd immunity threshold is difficult to attain with only a one-dose vaccine. Two doses of vaccination may be necessary to effectively interrupt varicella transmission and maintain herd immunity in South Korea. The study results can help guide the decision-making on an effective varicella vaccination policy in South Korea.

Systems and Clinical Pharmacology of COVID-19 Therapeutic Candidates: A Clinical and Translational Medicine Perspective

Over 50 million people have been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, while around 1 million have died due to COVID-19 disease progression. COVID-19 presents flu-like symptoms that can escalate, in about 7-10 days from onset, into a cytokine storm causing respiratory failure and death. Although social distancing reduces transmissibility, COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics are essential to regain socioeconomic normalcy. Even if effective and safe vaccines are found, pharmacological interventions are still needed to limit disease severity and mortality. Integrating current knowledge and drug candidates (approved drugs for repositioning among >35 candidates) undergoing clinical studies (>3000 registered in ClinicalTrials.gov), we employed Systems Pharmacology approaches to project how antivirals and immunoregulatory agents could be optimally evaluated for use. Antivirals are likely to be effective only at the early stage of infection, soon after exposure and before hospitalization, while immunomodulatory agents should be effective in the later-stage cytokine storm. As current antiviral candidates are administered in hospitals over 5-7 days, a long-acting combination that targets multiple SARS-CoV-2 lifecycle steps may provide a long-lasting, single-dose treatment in outpatient settings. Long-acting therapeutics may still be needed even when vaccines become available as vaccines are likely to be approved based on a 50% efficacy target.

Immunization Status against Measles, Mumps, Rubella and Varicella in a Large Population of Internationally Adopted Children Referred to Meyer Children's University Hospital from 2009 to 2018

Control of vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs) is a challenge for healthcare systems. Different studies highlighted the suboptimal immunization of internationally adopted children (IAC). To evaluate the immunization status against measles, mumps, rubella (MMR), and varicella (V) in a large cohort of IAC, data at first screening visit of all IAC (<18 years) consecutively referred to Meyer Children's University Hospital (Florence, Italy) from 2009 to 2018 were collected and analyzed. In total, 1927 children (median age: 5.99 years, interquartile range: 3.33-8.21) were enrolled. More than half of IAC were unprotected against MMR-V. The reliability of the vaccination documentation of the country of origin was poor, since more than a quarter of the IAC serologically tested were not protected against MMR-V, despite the vaccination documentation attesting previous vaccination. This was significantly more pronounced in children aged 15-18 years and in those originating from Africa. High rate of discordant serological results/documentation brings up questions regarding the optimal management of IACs, and suggests a rapid, careful, and complete assessment of immunization status timely after IAC's arrival. Serological testing of IAC of all ages followed by vaccination of seronegative children should be provided.

Do varicella vaccination programs change the epidemiology of herpes zoster? A comprehensive review, with focus on the United States

Introduction: Policy-makers in many countries have been wary of introducing varicella vaccination programs because of concerns that reduced exposures to varicella-zoster virus could increase herpes zoster (HZ) incidence. The U.S. introduced varicella vaccination in 1996 and has empiric evidence regarding this concern. Areas covered: This comprehensive review provides background emphasizing the epidemiology of varicella and of HZ in the U.S. before and after the introduction of their respective vaccines. The epidemiology is complex, and interpretation is complicated by methodologic challenges, by unexplained increases in age-specific HZ incidence that preceded varicella vaccination, and by introduction of vaccines for prevention of HZ. Nonetheless, observations from studies using different platforms and designs have yielded consistent findings, suggesting they are robust. Expert opinion: There has been no evidence that the U.S. varicella vaccination program increased HZ incidence in the general adult population over baseline trends. Furthermore, HZ incidence in children is declining. The U.S. experience can inform the development of new generations of models to predict HZ trends. More importantly, it provides reassurance for countries considering varicella vaccination that an effective program can reduce varicella morbidity and mortality while reducing the likelihood of HZ among children, and potentially, over time, across the entire population.

Reply letter: trends in varicella and herpes zoster epidemiology before and after the implementation of universal one-dose varicella vaccination over one decade in South Korea, 2003-2015

In the letter, Lai SW suggested that the cost-benefit of two-dose varicella vaccines should be considered since universal one-dose vaccination effectively reduced varicella incidence in Taiwan. However, the vaccination impact was different between South Korea and Taiwan. In South Korea, only a moderate reduction in varicella incidence was observed after implementing universal one-dose vaccination. Such difference possibly reflects the relatively high background varicella incidence in South Korea. As substantial variability in varicella epidemiology exists across countries, an optimal vaccination strategy may differ in each country. Despite the effectiveness of one-dose vaccine being moderate, primary vaccine failure and rapidly waning immunity are major concerns. Therefore, two-dose vaccination would be a reasonable choice for effectively preventing virus transmission in South Korea.

Models for optimally controlling varicella and herpes zoster by varicella vaccination: a comparative study

The introduction of mass vaccination against Varicella-Zoster-Virus (VZV) is being delayed in many European countries mainly because of the "fear" of a subsequent boom in natural herpes zoster (HZ) incidence in the first decades after the initiation of vaccination, caused by the expected decline in the protective effect of natural immunity boosting due to reduced virus circulation. Optimal control theory has proven to be a successful tool in understanding ways to curtail the spread of infectious diseases by devising the optimal disease intervention strategies. In this paper, we describe how a reduced 'toy' model can extract the essentials of the dynamics of the VZV transmission and reactivation in case of the study of optimal paths of varicella immunization programs. Results obtained using different optimization approaches are compared with the ones of a more realistic age-structured model. The reduced model shows some unreliable predictions in regards of model time scales about herpes zoster dynamic; nevertheless, it is able to reproduce the main qualitative dynamic of the more realistic model to the different optimization problems, while requiring a minimal number of parameters to be identified. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

Understanding the role of exogenous boosting in modeling varicella vaccination

INTRODUCTION

The exogenous boosting (EB) hypothesis posits that cell-mediated immunity is boosted for individuals reexposed to varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Historically, mathematical models of the impact of universal childhood varicella vaccination (UVV) have used limited data to capture EB and often conclude that UVV will temporarily increase herpes zoster (HZ) incidence.

AREAS COVERED

We updated a 2013 systematic literature review of 40 studies to summarize new evidence from observational or modeling studies related to EB and its parameterization. We abstracted data on observational study designs and mathematical model structures, EB frameworks, and HZ-related parameter values.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

This review identified an additional 41 studies: 22 observational and 19 modeling studies. Observational analyses generally reported pre-UVV increases in HZ incidence, making it difficult to attribute post-UVV increases to UVV versus other causes. Modeling studies considered a range of EB frameworks, from no boosting to full permanent immunity. Mathematical modeling efforts are needed in countries with long-standing vaccination programs to capture the dynamics of VZV transmission and temporal changes that may affect HZ incidence. Use of real-world pre-/postvaccination data on varicella and HZ incidence to validate model predictions may improve approaches to EB parameterization and understanding of the effects of varicella vaccination programs.

Thoracic and abdominal pain in a 28-year-old woman with a failing kidney transplant

This case report describes a young, immunocompromised patient who presented with thoracic pain. After an extensive workup, she was diagnosed with a varicella zoster virus infection with involvement of the gastric mucosa, pancreas and lungs for which she was treated with acyclovir. Although the viral load decreased significantly, the patient had persistent postherpetic neuralgia and nausea.

Deadly outbreak of chickenpox at district Faisalabad, Pakistan: possible causes, and preventive way forward

This article details our recommendations for the deadly outbreak of chickenpox to consider the additional referral of the absence of a monitoring system of prevention and control along with poor vaccination system for children in low-resource settings. The recent spread of chickenpox outbreak in Pakistan has claimed dozens of lives. The deaths in this current outbreak in quick successions are beyond understanding. Re-emergence of chickenpox in the area has raised many questions. Keeping in view the spread of chickenpox mainly in Faisalabad and its international reputation in trading, chickenpox breakout needs international attention to control its spread. It should be taken as an eye opener for the Government of Pakistan and government should develop and implement Centralized Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System that will help to narrow down the pathogens as far as the epidemics are concerned and also for early preventive and countermeasure response.

Seroepidemiology of varicella zoster virus infection in Vojvodina, Serbia

The present cross-sectional serosurvey constitutes the first effort to describe the varicella zoster virus (VZV) seroepidemiology in Serbia. An age-stratified serum bank of 3570 residual samples collected between 2015 and 2016 in each of the seven districts of the Vojvodina Province was tested for IgG anti-VZV antibodies with an enzyme immunoassay. Results were standardised into common units according to the European Sero-Epidemiology Network (ESEN2) methodology. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to examine the relationships between standardised anti-VZV positivity or logarithmically transformed antibody titres and demographic features of study subjects. Seropositivity (85% overall) increased with age, in parallel with geometric mean titres. By the time of school entry, 68% of children were immune. The slower subsequent acquisition of immunity leaves epidemiologically relevant proportions of adolescents (7%), young adults (6%) and especially females of reproductive age (6%) prone to more severe forms of varicella. In the ongoing pre-vaccine era, natural infection provides a high level of collective immunity, with the highest VZV transmission in children of preschool age. The detected gaps in VZV immunity of the Serbian population support the adoption of the official recommendations for varicella immunisation of non-immune adolescents and young adults, including non-pregnant women of childbearing age.

Modeling the impact of changes in day-care contact patterns on the dynamics of varicella transmission in France between 1991 and 2015

Annual incidence rates of varicella infection in the general population in France have been rather stable since 1991 when clinical surveillance started. Rates however show a statistically significant increase over time in children aged 0-3 years, and a decline in older individuals. A significant increase in day-care enrolment and structures' capacity in France was also observed in the last decade. In this work we investigate the potential interplay between an increase of contacts of young children possibly caused by earlier socialization in the community and varicella transmission dynamics. To this aim, we develop an age-structured mathematical model, informed with historical demographic data and contact matrix estimates in the country, accounting for longitudinal linear increase of early childhood contacts. While the reported overall varicella incidence is well reproduced independently of mixing variations, age-specific empirical trends are better captured by accounting for an increase in contacts among pre-school children in the last decades. We found that the varicella data are consistent with a 30% increase in the number of contacts at day-care facilities, which would imply a 50% growth in the contribution of 0-3y old children to overall yearly infections in 1991-2015. Our findings suggest that an earlier exposure to pathogens due to changes in day-care contact patterns, represents a plausible explanation for the epidemiological patterns observed in France. Obtained results suggest that considering temporal changes in social factors in addition to demographic ones is critical to correctly interpret varicella transmission dynamics.

The changing epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster in Hong Kong before universal varicella vaccination in 2014

In Hong Kong, universal varicella vaccination started in July 2014. Before this, children could receive varicella vaccine via the private market. We analysed the epidemiology of varicella and zoster before universal vaccination. We estimated varicella vaccination coverage through surveys in preschool children. We estimated the burden of varicella and zoster with varicella notifications from 1999/00 to 2013/14, Accident and Emergency Department (A&E) attendance and inpatient admissions to public hospitals from 2004/05 to 2013/14. We fitted a catalytic model to serological data on antibodies against varicella-zoster virus to estimate the force of infection. We found that varicella vaccination coverage gradually increased to about 50% before programme inception. In children younger than 5 years, the annual rate of varicella notifications, varicella admission and zoster A&E attendance generally declined. The annual notification, A&E attendance and hospitalisation rate of varicella and zoster generally increased for individuals between 10 and 59 years old. Varicella serology indicated an age shift during the study period towards a higher proportion of infections in slightly older individuals, but the change was most notable before vaccine licensure. In conclusion, we observed a shift in the burden of varicella to slightly older age groups with a corresponding increase in incidence but it cannot necessarily be attributed to private market vaccine coverage alone. Increasing varicella vaccination uptake in the private market might affect varicella transmission and epidemiology, but not to the level of interrupting transmission.

Varicella zoster virus transmission dynamics in Vojvodina, Serbia

This study aimed at establishing baseline key epidemiological parameters for varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection in Vojvodina, Serbia, with the ultimate goal to quantify the VZV transmission potential in the population. Seroprevalence data generated during the first large cross-sectional VZV serosurvey were modelled, using a two-tiered modelling approach to calculate age-specific forces of infection (FOI), the basic reproduction number (R₀) and herd immunity threshold (H). Seroprevalence and modelling data were compared with corresponding pre-vaccination epidemiological parameters from 11 countries participating in the European Sero-Epidemiology Network 2 (ESEN2) project. Serbia fits into the general dynamic VZV transmission patterns in Europe in the pre-vaccine era, with estimated R₀ = 4.12, (95% CI: 2.69–7.07) and H = 0.76 (95% CI: 0.63–0.86). The highest VZV transmission occurs among preschool children, as evidenced by the estimation of the highest FOI (0.22, 95% CI: 0.11–0.34) in the 0.5–4 age group, with a peak FOI of 0.25 at 2.23 years. Seroprevalence was consistently lower in 5–14 year-olds, resulting in considerable shares of VZV-susceptible adolescents (7.3%), and young adults (6%), resembling the situation in a minority of European countries. The obtained key epidemiological parameters showed most intense VZV transmission in preschool children aged <4 years, justifying the consideration of universal childhood immunization in the future. National immunization strategy should consider programs for VZV serologic screening and immunization of susceptible groups, including adolescents and women of reproductive age. This work is an important milestone towards the evaluation of varicella immunization policy options in Serbia.

Modeling the impact of combined vaccination programs against varicella and herpes zoster in Norway

BACKGROUND

Adoption of varicella immunization in Europe is limited due to a predicted increase in the incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) resulting from a removal of exogenous boosting by varicella vaccination. Most available assessments of immunization strategies only considered universal varicella vaccination (alone or in combination with HZ by the live vaccine). The development of a new subunit recombinant zoster vaccine may provide new perspectives of HZ control.

METHODS

We used a mathematical model for VZV in Norway based on the progressive immunity formulation of exogenous boosting. We evaluated a complete range of alternative immunization options against varicella and HZ including both universal and targeted varicella vaccination, either alone or with zoster immunization, and zoster immunization alone. We considered all values of the boosting intensity consistent with the Norwegian HZ incidence and compared the performance of the currently available live vaccine vs. a new recombinant vaccine.

RESULTS

Universal varicella vaccination alone resulted in a marked increase in the incidence of HZ under all scenarios considered. Even under the most favorable hypotheses on the magnitude of the boosting intensity, this increase could be mitigated only by a parallel HZ immunization with a recombinant vaccine, assuming a long duration of protection. Targeted varicella immunization of adolescents resulted in a modest increase in the HZ incidence which could be counterbalanced by both the live and, especially, the recombinant vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Given current knowledge on HZ pathogenesis and exogenous boosting, targeted varicella vaccination of adolescents was the only strategy that was not predicted to impact the epidemiology of HZ, and therefore it may represent a suitable alternative to universal vaccination. These results are aimed to support vaccine policy decisions in Norway and other countries with a similar VZV epidemiology.

Epidemiology of Multiple Herpes Viremia in Previously Immunocompetent Patients With Septic Shock

Background

Systemic reactivations of herpesviruses may occur in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, even in those without prior immune deficiency. However, the clinical relevance of these events is uncertain.

Methods

In this study we selected patients admitted with septic shock and treated for more than 4 days from a prospectively enrolled cohort of consecutive adults in the mixed ICUs of 2 tertiary care hospitals in the Netherlands. We excluded patients who had received antiviral treatment in the week before ICU admission and those with known immunodeficiency. We studied viremia episodes with cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6), herpes simplex virus types 1 (HSV-1) and 2 (HSV-2), and varicella zoster virus (VZV) by weekly polymerase chain reaction in plasma.

Results

Among 329 patients, we observed 399 viremia episodes in 223 (68%) patients. Viremia with CMV, EBV, HHV-6, HSV-1, HSV-2, and VZV was detected in 60 (18%), 157 (48%), 80 (24%), 87 (26%), 13 (4%), and 2 (0.6%) patients, respectively; 112 (34%) patients had multiple concurrent viremia events. Crude mortality in the ICU was 36% in this latter group compared to 19% in remaining patients (P < .01). After adjustment for potential confounders, time-dependent bias, and competing risks, only concurrent CMV and EBV reactivations remained independently associated with increased mortality (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 3.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.41-7.13).

Conclusions

Herpesvirus reactivations were documented in 68% of septic shock patients without prior immunodeficiency and frequently occurred simultaneously. Concurrent reactivations could be independently associated with mortality.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT01905033.

Post-herpetic neuralgia - a review of current management and future directions

Post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) is common and treatment is often suboptimal with less than half of patients achieving adequate 50% pain relief. As an area of unmet clinical need and as an archetype of neuropathic pain, it deserves the attention of clinicians and researchers. Areas covered: This review summarises the epidemiology, pathophysiology, risk factors and clinical features of varicella infection. It describes the current and possible future management strategies for preventing varicella infection and reactivation and for treating PHN. Expert opinion: A highly successful Varicella Zoster (VZV) vaccine has not been universally adopted due to fears that it may increase Herpes Zoster (HZ) incidence - and thus PHN - in older, unvaccinated generations. This is a controversial theory but advances in the efficacy of vaccines against HZ may allay these fears and encourage more widespread adoption of the VZV vaccine. Treatment of PHN, as for any neuropathic pain, must be multidisciplinary and multimodal. Advances in sensory phenotyping technology and genomics may allow more individualised treatment. Traditional research methodologies are ill-suited to assess the kind of complex interventions that are necessary to achieve better clinical outcomes in this challenging field.

Varicella-related Primary Health-care Visits, Hospitalizations and Mortality in Norway, 2008-2014

BACKGROUND

Norway does not currently implement universal varicella vaccination in childhood. We aimed to characterize health care burden of varicella in Norway in the prevaccine era.

METHODS

We linked individual patient data from different national registries to examine varicella vaccinations and varicella-coded primary care consultations, hospitalizations, outpatient hospital visits, deaths and viral infections of central nervous system in the whole population of Norway during 2008-2014. We estimated health care contact rates and described the epidemiology of medically attended varicella infection.

RESULTS

Each year approximately 14,600 varicella-related contacts occurred within primary health care and hospital sector in Norway. The annual contact rate was 221 cases per 100,000 population in primary health care and 7.3 cases per 100,000 in hospital care. Both in primary and hospital care, the highest incidences were observed among children 1 year of age: 2,654 and 78.1 cases per 100,000, respectively. The annual varicella mortality was estimated at 0.06 deaths per 100,000 and in-hospital case-fatality rate at 0.3%. Very few (0.2-0.5%) patients were vaccinated against varicella. Among hospitalized varicella patients, 22% had predisposing conditions, 9% had severe-to-very severe comorbidities and 5.5% were immunocompromised. Varicella-related complications were reported in 29.3% of hospitalized patients. Varicella zoster virus was the third most frequent virus found among 16% of patients with confirmed viral infections of central nervous system.

CONCLUSIONS

Varicella causes a considerable health care burden in Norway, especially among children. To inform the policy decision on the use of varicella vaccination, a health economic assessment of vaccination and mathematical modeling of vaccination impact are needed.

Varicella infection in a non-universally vaccinated population: Actual epidemiology in Bulgaria (2013-2015)

BACKGROUND

Varicella is a common and usually mild disease but it has great importance in regard to general infectious morbidity. The current study aimed to characterize possible risk factors of varicella epidemiology in Bulgaria, a country where infection follows its natural epidemiological pattern as no mandatory or recommended vaccine is currently applied.

METHODS

Administrative regions of Bulgaria were used as units of observation and a set of sociodemographic and economic determinants, as well as geographic location (south or north) were tested for associations with the mean 3-year varicella incidence rates (2013-2015).

RESULTS

The proportion of urban population, proportion of females, number of health care units and proportion of urban population aged <10 years were the four sociodemographic variables most strongly and significantly correlated (p<0.05) with varicella frequency (Spearman's rank correlation coefficients of 0.62, 0.47, 0.43, and 0.38, respectively). After reducing the number of intercorrelated factors to a few principal components and accounting for confounders, the demographic component and geographic location remained most robustly associated with varicella incidence in Bulgaria (adjusted R² of 0.51, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The results obtained identify important determinants in the local epidemiology of varicella and show that community characteristics should be considered, to improve our understanding of varicella distribution.

Prevalence of a history of prior varicella/herpes zoster infection in multiple sclerosis

Varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection has been implicated in multiple sclerosis (MS), but direct causal involvement has been disputed. Nevertheless, knowledge of VZV exposure is important, given the risk of serious complications of first exposure while undergoing immunosuppressive treatment, in particular with fingolimod. We distributed questionnaires to MS clinic patients, requesting information about history of chickenpox, sibling/household/occupational exposure, history of zoster (shingles), and disease-modifying treatment. A random, proportionally representative sample of 51 patients that included patients with positive, negative, and unknown chickenpox history were selected for determination of VZV IgG by ELISA. Of 1206 distributed questionnaires, 605 were returned (50% response rate). Of these, 86% reported history of chickenpox, 5.6% gave negative history, and 8.5% did not know. Of 594 who answered the zoster question, 78% gave a negative response, 4% did not know, and 104 (17%) answered yes. Of these, 83 reported 1 episode; 12 had 2; 5 had 3; and 1 each reported 5, 6, and 15 episodes. Of 51 patients tested for VZV IgG (44 "yes," 4 "no," and 3 "I don't know" answers to the question of whether they had chickenpox), 48 were seropositive; the 3 seronegative all had reported having had chickenpox. The high rate of MS patients reporting prior chickenpox infection is comparable with previous reports. A substantial proportion of MS patients, estimated to be higher than an age-matched general population, report single or multiple episodes of zoster. These data are useful for consideration of immunosuppressive treatments and/or VZV and zoster vaccination.

Trends in the burden of varicella in UK general practice

Childhood varicella vaccination has not yet been introduced in the UK. To inform decision-making about future vaccine programmes, data on the burden of varicella in general practice over a 10-year period (01/01/2005–31/12/2014) was calculated by age and ethnicity, using anonymised data from >8 million individuals in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Varicella consultations peaked at 20 603 in 2007, then decreased annually in all age groups to 11 243 in 2014. Each year, consultation rates were common among infants, were highest among 1–3 year olds (61·2 consultations/1000 person-years in 2007, 39·7/1000 person-years in 2014) and then fell with increasing age to <1·0/1000 person-years at ages ⩾20 years. Varicella acquisition appeared to be delayed in some ethnic groups, with lower consultation rates for children aged <3 years but increased rates for older children and adults aged ⩽40 years among those of black African, Afro-Caribbean, South Asian or other Asian ethnicity. Decreasing general practice consultation rates over time could reflect changes in healthcare utilisation, with patients seeking care in alternative settings such as Accident and Emergency Departments, although current data prevent full assessment of this. Availability of data on varicella diagnoses across all health settings would enable estimation of the total healthcare burden due to varicella and the cost-effectiveness of introducing varicella vaccination.

A systematic review of varicella seroprevalence in European countries before universal childhood immunization: deriving incidence from seroprevalence data

Surveillance systems for varicella in Europe are highly heterogeneous or completely absent. We estimated the varicella incidence based on seroprevalence data, as these data are largely available and not biased by under-reporting or underascertainment. We conducted a systematic literature search for varicella serological data in Europe prior to introduction of universal varicella immunization. Age-specific serological data were pooled by country and serological profiles estimated using the catalytic model with piecewise constant force of infection. From the estimated profiles, we derived the annual incidence of varicella infection (/100·000) for six age groups (<5, 5–9, 10–14, 15–19, 20–39 and 40–65 years). In total, 43 studies from 16 countries were identified. By the age of 15 years, over 90% of the population has been infected by varicella in all countries except for Greece (86·6%) and Italy (85·3%). Substantial variability across countries exists in the age-specific annual incidence of varicella primary infection among the <5 years old (from 7052 to 16 122 per 100 000) and 5–9 years old (from 3292 to 11 798 per 100 000). The apparent validity and robustness of our estimates highlight the importance of serological data for the characterization of varicella epidemiology, even in the absence of sampling or assay standardization.

A national register-based study of paediatric varicella hospitalizations in Denmark 2010–2016

Varicella, usually a mild disease of childhood, can also cause complications and hospitalization. Universal varicella immunization is implemented in several countries worldwide, but not in Denmark. Taking advantage of unique national registers, we aimed to estimate the incidence of paediatric varicella hospitalizations and assess determinants for hospitalization. For this purpose, we designed a nationwide, retrospective register study of paediatric varicella hospitalizations and applied a case–cohort design and logistic regression analysis comparing hospitalized varicella patients to a sample of the entire paediatric population in Denmark. Varicella patients were identified in The Danish National Patient Register and referents were randomly selected from the Danish Civil Registration System. The incidence of paediatric varicella admissions was 11/100 000 children 0–18 years of age/year. Of admitted children 67·1% had complications and 30·0% had underlying disease. All categories of underlying disease significantly increased the odds of hospitalization as well as male gender and not having been born in Denmark. In conclusion, we found a considerable burden of paediatric varicella disease in Danish hospitals, of similar magnitude as in other European countries comparable to Denmark. With this study we have provided epidemiological data needed for considering implementation of varicella vaccine in Denmark.

Impact of Underlying Conditions on Zoster-Related Pain and on Quality of Life Following Zoster

BACKGROUND

Chronic conditions have been investigated as risk factors for developing zoster, but in patients suffering from zoster, the impact of underlying conditions in zoster-related pain and quality of life (QOL) remains unclear.

METHODS

We performed a post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study in immunocompetent zoster patients aged 50 years or older, conducted by general practitioners in Italy between 2009 and 2010. Zoster symptoms, pain intensity and characteristics, and physical and mental health scores were assessed at baseline (zoster diagnosis) and at 1, 3, and 6 months of follow-up.

RESULTS

Among 413 patients enrolled in the study, 73% (303/413) suffered from underlying conditions of which 69% (209/303) were aged 65 or older. Cardiovascular diseases (75%), diabetes (24%), and respiratory diseases (17%) were most frequent. One to three months after onset, zoster patients with underlying conditions experienced more intense zoster-related pain than those without. QOL scores were significantly lower in patients with underlying conditions, and age-adjusted difference in QOL scores between the groups increased over time, demonstrating a slower recovery for patients with underlying conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to age, the main risk factor of zoster occurrence and severity, the presence of underlying conditions results in more painful and impactful zoster episodes, creating a significant burden for these patients.

Too young to be vaccinated: hospitalizations caused by varicella among children in the first year of life

AIM

The aim of this study was to analyse the causes of hospitalization in the course of varicella in children during the first year of life.

METHODS

An analysis was performed of the medical documentation of 359 children hospitalized for varicella on the infectious diseases ward at the Children's Hospital in Poznan (Poland) between January 2007 and August 2015.

RESULTS

Of the 359 children in the study group, 96 were younger than 1 year old. The most common cause of hospitalization was respiratory infections, found in 31 (32%) children. A severe course of varicella was observed in 38 (14%) children, and 21 (22%) developed skin infections, while 11 (11%) exhibited more than one complication. Treatment with acyclovir was implemented in 90 cases and parenteral antibiotic therapy was applied in 49 children. Contact with siblings suffering from varicella was confirmed in 46 children; for 16, the source of the infection was the mother.

CONCLUSIONS

The main source of varicella virus among hospitalized children in the first year of life is home contact. An infant may become infected from its mother suffering from zoster. Children who are exclusively breastfed and are born of mothers who have previously had varicella may develop varicella with a severe course during the first year of life.

Economic burden of varicella in children 1-12 Years of age in Hungary, 2011-2015

Background

Although live-attenuated varicella-zoster virus (VZV) vaccines have been proven to be safe and effective in preventing varicella and real-word evidence shows routine childhood immunization programs are effective in dramatically reducing varicella associated morbidity and mortality, varicella vaccine is not included in the National Immunization Program (NIP) in Hungary. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical and economic burden associated with varicella in Hungary.

Methods

This was a multicenter, retrospective, chart review study of patients aged 1–12 years with a primary varicella diagnosis between 2011 and 2015. Healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) associated with varicella, unit costs, and work loss were used to estimate direct and indirect costs. All costs are presented in 2015 HUF / Euros (€).

Results

156 children with varicella were included (75 outpatients, 81 inpatients), with a mean age of 4.4 (SD: 2.0) and 3.7 (SD: 2.1) years, respectively. One or more complications were reported by 12.0% of outpatients and 92.6% of inpatients, the most common being dehydration, skin and soft tissue infections, pneumonia, keratoconjunctivitis, and cerebellitis. HCRU estimates included use of over-the-counter (OTC) medications (96.0% outpatients, 53.1% inpatients), prescription medications (9.3% outpatients, 70.4% inpatients), tests/procedures (4.0% outpatients, 97.5% inpatients), and consultation with allied health professionals (2.7% outpatients, 30.9% inpatients). The average duration of hospital stay (inpatients) was 3.6 (95% CI: 3.2, 4.1) days. The total combined direct and indirect cost per varicella case was 228,146.7 Hungarian Forint (HUF)/€ 736.0 for inpatients and 49,790.6 HUF/€ 106.6 for outpatients. The overall annual cost of varicella in Hungary for children aged <15 years in 2015 was estimated at 1,903,332,524.3 HUF/ € 6,139,980.4.

Conclusion

Varicella is associated with substantial clinical burden in Hungary, resulting in the utilization of a significant amount of healthcare resources. These results support the need for routine vaccination of all healthy children to reduce the varicella-associated disease burden.

Varicella-zoster virus seroprevalence in children and adolescents in the pre-varicella vaccine era, Germany

Background

In 2004, universal childhood varicella vaccination was introduced in Germany. We aimed to determine the age-specific prevalence of anti-varicella zoster virus (VZV) IgG-antibodies among children in the pre-varicella vaccine era in Germany, to identify factors associated with VZV seropositivity, and to assess the suitability of a commercially available ELISA for VZV seroepidemiological studies by comparing it with an in-house fluorescent antibody to membrane antigen test (FAMA) as the gold standard.

Methods

Serum samples of 13,433 children and adolescents aged 1–17 years included in the population-based German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS; conducted 2003–2006) were tested for anti-VZV IgG by ELISA. All samples with equivocal ELISA results and a random selection of ELISA-negative and -positive samples were tested by FAMA. Statistical analyses were conducted using a weighting factor adjusting the study population to the total population in Germany. Seroprevalences were calculated as percentages (%) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Odds ratios (OR) were computed by multivariate logistic regression to determine the association between socio-demographic factors and VZV seropositivity.

Results

The VZV seropositivity rate was 80.3% (95% CI: 79.3–81.3) in varicella-unvaccinated children and adolescents. VZV seropositivity rates differed significantly between age groups up to age 6 years, but not by gender. Of 118 retested serum samples with an equivocal ELISA result, 45.8% were FAMA-positive. The proportion of samples tested as false-negative in by ELISA varied by age group: 2.6% in children aged 1–6 and 9% in children aged 7–17 years. Multivariate analyses showed that age, having older siblings, and early daycare start were associated with seropositivity in preschoolers; migration background reduced the chance of VZV seropositivity in schoolchildren (OR: 0.65; 0.43–0.99) and adolescents (OR: 0.62; 0.4–0.97).

Conclusion

In the pre-varicella vaccine era, most children in Germany contracted varicella by age six. Schoolchildren with a migration background and children without siblings have an increased risk of being VZV seronegative and should be targeted for catch-up vaccination, if they have no history of chickenpox. ELISAs are suitable for use in population-level serosurveys on VZV, but samples with equivocal ELISA results should be retested by FAMA.

Estimation of the burden of varicella in Europe before the introduction of universal childhood immunization

BACKGROUND

Varicella is generally considered a mild disease. Disease burden is not well known and country-level estimation is challenging. As varicella disease is not notifiable, notification criteria and rates vary between countries. In general, existing surveillance systems do not capture cases that do not seek medical care, and most are affected by underreporting and underascertainment. We aimed to estimate the overall varicella disease burden in Europe to provide critical information to support decision-making regarding varicella vaccination.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review to identify all available epidemiological data on varicella IgG antibody seroprevalence, primary care and hospitalisation incidence, and mortality. We then developed methods to estimate age-specific varicella incidence and annual number of cases by different levels of severity (cases in the community, health care seekers in primary care and hospitals, and deaths) for all countries belonging to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) region and Switzerland.

RESULTS

In the absence of universal varicella immunization, the burden of varicella would be substantial with a total of 5.5 million (95% CI: 4.7-6.4) varicella cases occurring annually across Europe. Variation exists between countries but overall the majority of cases (3 million; 95% CI: 2.7-3.3) would occur in children <5 years. Annually, 3-3.9 million patients would consult a primary care physician, 18,200-23,500 patients would be hospitalised, and 80 varicella-related deaths would occur (95% CI: 19-822).

CONCLUSIONS

Varicella disease burden is substantial. Most cases occur in children <5 years old but adults require hospitalisation more often and are at higher risk of death. This information should be considered when planning and evaluating varicella control strategies. A better understanding of the driving factors of country-specific differences in varicella transmission and health care utilization is needed. Improving and standardizing varicella surveillance in Europe, as initiated by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), is important to improve data quality to facilitate inter-country comparison.

The natural history of varicella zoster virus infection in Norway: Further insights on exogenous boosting and progressive immunity to herpes zoster

We use age-structured models for VZV transmission and reactivation to reconstruct the natural history of VZV in Norway based on available pre-vaccination serological data, contact matrices, and herpes zoster incidence data. Depending on the hypotheses on contact and transmission patterns, the basic reproduction number of varicella in Norway ranges between 3.7 and 5.0, implying a vaccine coverage between 73 and 80% to effectively interrupt transmission with a 100% vaccine efficacy against infection. The varicella force of infection peaks during early childhood (3–5 yrs) and shows a prolonged phase of higher risk during the childbearing period, though quantitative variations can occur depending on contact patterns. By expressing the magnitude of exogenous boosting as a proportion of the force of infection, it is shown that reactivation is well described by a progressive immunity mechanism sustained by a large, though possibly below 100%, degree of exogenous boosting, in agreement with findings from other Nordic countries, implying large reproduction numbers of boosting. Moreover, magnitudes of exogenous boosting below 40% are robustly disconfirmed by data. These results bring further insight on the magnitude of immunity boosting and its relationship with reactivation.

Immunogenicity and safety of an adjuvanted herpes zoster subunit candidate vaccine in adults ≥ 50 years of age with a prior history of herpes zoster: A phase III, non-randomized, open-label clinical trial

This phase III, non-randomized, open-label, multi-center study (NCT01827839) evaluated the immunogenicity and safety of an adjuvanted recombinant subunit herpes zoster (HZ) vaccine (HZ/su) in adults aged ≥ 50 y with prior physician-documented history of HZ. Participants (stratified by age: 50–59, 60–69 and ≥ 70 y) received 2 doses of HZ/su 2 months apart and were followed-up for another 12 months. Anti-glycoprotein E (gE) antibodies were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay before vaccination and 1 month after the second dose (Month 3). Solicited local and general adverse events (AEs) were recorded for 7 d and unsolicited AEs for 30 d after each vaccination. Serious AEs were recorded until study end. The primary immunogenicity objective was met if the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the vaccine response rate (VRR), defined as a 4-fold increase in anti-gE over baseline, at Month 3 was ≥ 60%. 96 participants (32/age group) were enrolled. The primary immunogenicity objective was met, as the VRR at Month 3 was 90.2% (95% CI: 81.7–95.7). Geometric mean anti-gE antibody concentrations at Month 3 were similar across age groups. 77.9% and 71.6% of participants reported local and general solicited AEs, respectively. The most frequent solicited AEs were pain at injection site, fatigue, headache, myalgia and shivering. The HZ/su vaccine was immunogenic in adults aged ≥ 50 y with a physician-documented history of HZ, and no safety concerns were identified.

Perspectives on optimal control of varicella and herpes zoster by mass routine varicella vaccination

Herpes zoster arises from reactivation of the varicella-zoster virus (VZV), causing varicella in children. As reactivation occurs when cell-mediated immunity (CMI) declines, and there is evidence that re-exposure to VZV boosts CMI, mass varicella immunization might increase the zoster burden, at least for some decades. Fear of this natural zoster boom is the main reason for the paralysis of varicella immunization in Europe. We apply optimal control to a realistically parametrized age-structured model for VZV transmission and reactivation to investigate whether feasible varicella immunization paths that are optimal in controlling both varicella and zoster exist. We analyse the optimality system numerically focusing on the role of the cost functional, of the relative zoster-varicella cost and of the planning horizon length. We show that optimal programmes will mostly be unfeasible for public health owing to their complex temporal profiles. This complexity is the consequence of the intrinsically antagonistic nature of varicella immunization programmes when aiming to control both varicella and zoster. However, we show that gradually increasing-hence feasible-vaccination schedules can perform better than routine programmes with constant vaccine uptake. Finally, we show the optimal profiles of feasible programmes targeting mitigation of the post-immunization natural zoster boom with priority.