Using the power law model to predict the long-term persistence and duration of detectable hepatitis A antibody after receipt of hepatitis A vaccine (VAQTA™)

Modeling hepatitis A epidemiological profiles and estimating the pediatric vaccination threshold in the Russian Federation

Background

To combat the hesitancy towards implementing a hepatitis A universal mass vaccination (UMV) strategy and to provide healthcare authorities with a comprehensive analysis of the potential outcomes and benefits of the implementation of such a vaccination program, we projected HAV seroprevalence and incidence rates in the total population of the Russian Federation and estimated the pediatric vaccination threshold required to achieve an incidence level of less than 1 case per 100,000 using a new mathematical model.

Methods

A dynamic age-structured SEIRV (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-vaccinated) compartmental model was developed and calibrated using demographic, seroprevalence, vaccination, and epidemiological data from different regions of the Russian Federation. This model was used to project various epidemiological measures.

Results

The projected national average age at the midpoint of population immunity increases from 40 years old in 2020 to 50 years old in 2036 and is shifted even further to the age of 70 years in some regions of the country. An increase of varying magnitude in the incidence of symptomatic HAV infections is predicted for all study regions and for the Russian Federation as a whole between 2028 and 2032, if the HAV vaccination coverage level remains at the level of 2022. The national average vaccination coverage level required to achieve a symptomatic HAV incidence rate below 1 case per 100,000 by 2032 was calculated to be 69.8% if children aged 1-6 years are vaccinated following the implementation of a UMV program or 34.8% if immunization is expanded to children aged 1-17 years.

Conclusion

The developed model provides insights into a further decline of herd immunity to HAV against the background of ongoing viral transmission. The current favorable situation regarding hepatitis A morbidity is projected to be replaced by an increase in incidence rates if vaccination coverage remains at the current levels. The obtained results support the introduction of a hepatitis A UMV strategy in the Russian Federation.

One-year antibody durability induced by EuCorVac-19, a liposome-displayed COVID-19 receptor binding domain subunit vaccine, in healthy Korean subjects

OBJECTIVE

EuCorVac-19 (ECV-19), an adjuvanted liposome-displayed receptor binding domain (RBD) COVID-19 vaccine, previously reported interim Phase 2 trial results showing induction of neutralizing antibodies 3 weeks after prime-boost immunization. The objective of this study was to determine the longer-term antibody response of the vaccine.

METHODS

To assess immunogenicity 6 and 12 months after vaccination, participants in the Phase 2 trial (NCT04783311) were excluded if they: 1) withdrew, 2) reported COVID-19 infection or additional vaccination, or 3) exhibited increasing Spike (S) antibodies (representing possible non-reported infection). Following exclusions, of the 197 initial subjects, anti-S IgG antibodies and neutralizing antibodies were further assessed in 124 subjects at the 6-month timepoint, and 36 subjects at the 12-month timepoint.

RESULTS

Median anti-S antibody half-life was 52 days (interquartile range [IQR]:42-70), in the "early" period from 3 weeks to 6 months, and 130 days (IQR:97-169) in the "late" period from 6 to 12 months. There was a negative correlation between initial antibody titer and half-life. Anti-S and neutralizing antibody responses were correlated. Neutralizing antibody responses showed longer half-lives; the early period had a median half-life of 120 days (IQR:81-207), and the late period had a median half-life of 214 days (IQR:140-550).

CONCLUSION

These data establish antibody durability of ECV-19, using a framework to analyze COVID-19 vaccine-induced antibodies during periods of high infection.

Comparison of antibody persistency through one year between one-dose and two-dose regimens of Ad5-nCoV vaccine for COVID-19

This post-hoc analysis compared the receptor-binding domain (RBD)-specific and pseudovirus neutralizing antibodies against the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 strain elicited by one or two doses (56-d interval) of Ad5-nCoV vaccine regimen (NCT04341389 and NCT04566770). Both trials had low-dose and high-dose groups. Propensity score matching was used to adjust the baseline between one- and two-dose regimens. To predict the decrease in antibody titers 1 y after vaccination, half-lives of RBD-binding antibodies and pseudovirus neutralizing antibodies were computed. We obtained 34 and 29 pairs of participants in the low- and high-dose groups based on the propensity score matching. The two-dose regimen of Ad5-nCoV increased the peaking level of neutralizing antibodies compared to the one-dose regimen at day 28, but the responses of the neutralizing antibodies were not consistent with those of the RBD antibodies. Half-lives of the RBD-binding antibodies in the two-dose Ad5-nCoV regimen (202-209 days) were longer than those in the one-dose regimen (136-137 d); half-lives of the pseudovirus neutralizing antibody in the one-dose Ad5-nCoV regimen (177 d) were longer than those in the two-dose regimen (116-131 d). The predicted positive rates of RBD-binding antibodies in the one-dose regimen (34.1%-38.3%) would be lower than those in the two-dose Ad5-nCoV regimen (67.0%-84.0%), while the positive rates of pseudovirus neutralizing antibodies in the one-dose regimen (65.4%-66.7%) would be higher than those in the two-dose regimen (48.3%-58.0%). The two-dose Ad5-nCoV regimen with a 56-d interval had no effect on the persistence of neutralizing antibodies but slowed decay trend of RBD-binding antibodies.

Modeling persistence of hSBA titers over time following a primary series and a booster dose of MenB-FHbp

MenB-FHbp is a meningococcal serogroup B vaccine. Persistence of hSBA titers against 4 diverse test strains ≤ 4 years after a 2-dose MenB-FHbp primary series and ≤ 26 months after a booster dose administered 4 years post-primary has been demonstrated. Here, we developed a power law model (PLM) to estimate the persistence of hSBA titers up to 5 years after a MenB-FHbp primary series and a booster dose using hSBA data from previous MenB-FHbp clinical trials in healthy adolescents. The PLM-predicted hSBA titers closely followed observed values after a 0, 6 month MenB-FHbp primary series and a booster dose 4 years later. At 5 years post-primary and 5 years post-booster, the PLM predicted that 15.2 %-50.0 % and 51.2 %-70.9 % of individuals, respectively, would have hSBA titers ≥ 1:8 or 1:16. The PLM supports that the persistence of hSBA titers is maintained for at least 5 years post-primary MenB-FHbp vaccination and post-booster.

Mathematical modelling of the waning of anti-RBD IgG SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers after a two-dose BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination

Background

After exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and/or vaccination there is an increase in serum antibody titers followed by a non-linear waning. Our aim was to find out if this waning of antibody titers would fit to a mathematical model.

Methods

We analyzed anti-RBD (receptor binding domain) IgG antibody titers and the breakthrough infections over a ten-month period following the second dose of the mRNA BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNtech.) vaccine, in a cohort of 54 health-care workers (HCWs) who were either never infected with SARS-CoV-2 (naïve, nHCW group, n=27) or previously infected with the virus (experienced, eHCW group, n=27). Two mathematical models, exponential and power law, were used to quantify antibody waning kinetics, and we compared the relative quality of the goodness of fit to the data between both models was compared using the Akaik Information Criterion.

Results

We found that the waning slopes were significantly more pronounced for the naïve when compared to the experienced HCWs in exponential (p-value: 1.801E-9) and power law (p-value: 9.399E-13) models. The waning of anti-RBD IgG antibody levels fitted significantly to both exponential (average-R2: 0.957 for nHCW and 0.954 for eHCW) and power law (average-R2: 0.991 for nHCW and 0.988 for eHCW) models, with a better fit to the power law model. In the nHCW group, titers would descend below an arbitrary 1000-units threshold at a median of 210.6 days (IQ range: 74.2). For the eHCW group, the same risk threshold would be reached at 440.0 days (IQ range: 135.2) post-vaccination.

Conclusion

Two parsimonious models can explain the anti-RBD IgG antibody titer waning after vaccination. Regardless of the model used, eHCWs have lower waning slopes and longer persistence of antibody titers than nHCWs. Consequently, personalized vaccination booster schedules should be implemented according to the individual persistence of antibody levels.